CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET]
Bill here.
When the new website is completed, I will better organize the work of contributors like Vad, kaimu and Harp so that you can easily access their archives.
Yesterday there was the following comment in the blog about Harp’s discussion at the Cara Toronto 2012 Conference (Sept 27-29):
Harp’s Roadmap posted at the top of yesterday’s blog
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-mar-13-2013#comment-118125
Submitted by x (13 comments) on Wed, 03/13/2013 – 20:37 #118125
For educational reasons only, I’m curious what factors led to the upward adjustment from 14300/13600 @ the 2012 conference to 14700/14200. I’m a learner and was very intrigued by Mr. Singh’s contribution to 2012. Both upstairs and down…
AMENDMENT:
Also for personal profit.
Maybe we can get some clarity on x’s comments: “Both upstairs and down… AMENDMENT: Also for personal profit.” I don’t know what any of that means.
Re the comment: “what factors led to the upward adjustment from 14300/13600 @ the 2012 conference”, I can say there was no 14300 target given at the Conference for the simple reason that the 2007 high was just under 14200 and so breaking above 14200 would have represented a technical break-out, and so Harp would not (because of mathematics), and didn’t, give a 14300 forecast at that point (13400 on the Dow that day). In fact, it was after the close on July 3 (12944) that Harp, in the blog, projected “the elongated third wave cycle and advance to 15600 between August 2013 to October 2013”, which is what, eight and a half months later, he is sticking to.
I’m going to re=publish the three entries of Harp’s Roadmap and people can decide if that was helpful for their purposes.
May 24, 2012
FULL DISCLOSURE
Harp is a professional trader who manages his own 8-figure account. He is long gold and gold stocks.
The coming roadmap for GOLD
Ever since Gold slipped from 1900 ($/once) in August 2011, further compounded by the resurging Euro crisis, Gold has attracted a multitude of sentiments towards its next fate.
Following is my prediction of the next roadmap for Gold based on my analysis
• First milestone movement:
Gold will bounce back to 1660 ($/ounce)
• Second milestone movement:
Gold will break 1900 ($/ounce) and reach 2100 ($/ounce)
• Third milestone movement:
Gold will hit 2600 to 2700 ($/ounce)
• Fourth milestone movement:
Gold will reach 3040 ($/ounce)
Jul 4, 2012
Harp’s Roadmap: Next Movement of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
Further to my analysis on the roadmap of Gold on May 24th, 2012, following is my prediction of DJIA’s upcoming price journey.
The current timeline & price point coordinates for DJIA are (July 3, 2012, 12943.82), DJIA is currently in its 3rd wave cycle; this is an elongated wave and will approach its cycle completion in the next 16 months.
DJIA will journey through this elongated third wave cycle and advance to 15600 between August 2013 to October 2013.
Dec 12, 2012
Next Journey for the S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 Index is currently in its 3rd wave. It approached the 1400 mark from its recent baseline and will now aim its next move toward the 1550 to 1575 mark. Once breaking through 1575 the S&P 500 Index will claim its climax of 1800 within 15 months from the current timeline in this wave cycle.
The views and opinions expressed by me are solely my own; Cara Community members should not treat any opinion expressed by me as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. No warranty or guarantee of any kind, expressed or implied is given regarding the outcome analyzed by “Harp”.
As for me, I do not know any forecaster who has been as accurate as Harp. Like Vad and kaimu, he’ll be coming to the Cara Toronto 2013 conference (Sept 13-15). So to will Roy Bonnell, CEO of Argex Titanium. Btw, attendees in 2012 will recall the presentation of Mr. Atluri, CEO of MIC Electronics:
http://www.mic.in/images/stories/Directors/atluri.pdf
The company was recently awarded a contract with a city in India for 70,000 LED street lights. I am continuing to work with them.
http://www.mic.in/component/content/article/13-news/288-mic-bags-the-led…
Good morning, Geoff here.
Today and tomorrow mark the highest consecutive POMO days of March with a scheduled combined maximum outright treasury coupon purchases of $9.25 billion. It will be surprising if the equity market sees a sizable drop in the next 2 days
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
TLT is struggling to regain the 23.6% retracement, but you have to think that Fed assistance will be provided at former supports – the Fed doesn’t want bonds to fall apart and you can clearly see that possibility from the chart below. If bonds can rally, TLT may be able to confirm a new weekly cycle (marked on chart) but a failed confirmed cycle would mark a further decline that could be abrupt so we need to monitor this situation closely.
The US Dollar rally is very long in the tooth and should decline pretty soon – we continue to wait on this.
Have a great trading day!
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
| Symbol | Name | Last Trade | Change | Related Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^ATX | ATX | 2,499.58 |  3.58 (0.14%) | Components, Chart, More |
| ^BFX | BEL-20 | 2,647.00 | 18.40 (0.70%) | Components, Chart, More |
| ^FCHI | CAC 40 | 3,855.61 | 19.57 (0.51%) | Components, Chart, More |
| ^GDAXI | DAX | 8,016.90 | 45.99 (0.58%) | Components, Chart, More |
| AEX.AS | AEX General | 353.58 | 1.56 (0.44%) | Components, Chart, More |
| ^OSEAX | OSE All Share | 525.66 | 1.28 (0.24%) | Components, Chart, More |
| ^OMXSPI | Stockholm General | 380.13 | 2.75 (0.73%) | Components, Chart, More |
| ^SSMI | Swiss Market | 7,819.93 | 39.05 (0.50%) | Components, Chart, More |
| ^FTSE | FTSE 100 | 6,496.98 | 15.48 (0.24%) | Components, Chart, More |
| FPXAA.PR | PX Index | 1,018.97 | 2.15 (0.21%) | Chart, More |
| MICEXINDEXCF.ME | MICEX Index | 1,496.37 | 0.00 (0.00%) | Chart, More |
| GD.AT | Athex Composite Share Price Index | 965.38 |  7.74 (0.80%) | Chart, More |
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara 100 Company research notes from Seeking Alpha
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Mar14: 6:52 AM More on JPMorgan’s downgrade of Amazon (AMZN): The firm says its bottom-up analysis on Amazon suggests decelerating gross profit growth in 2013. In addition, 2014 EPS is taken down to $2.83/share from $3.01/share. AMZN -1.7% premarket. Mar13: 1:20 PM Amazon (AMZN -0.2%) launches its 8.9-inch Kindle tablet in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan. In addition, the company lowered the prices on the larger-sized tablet in the U.S. to $269 for the Wi-Fi version and $399 for the 4G product.
Chevron (CVX)
Mar13: 4:47 PM A barge and a Chevron (CVX) pipeline are on fire and an oil slick is visible in the waters of a bayou south of New Orleans after a tug pushing the barge crashed into the pipeline last night. CVX says it has shut in the pipeline, products are being rerouted, and it has mobilized emergency crews to help with the response. 9:36 AM Chevron (CVX) is in talks with potential buyers for Canada’s first exports of liquefied natural gas, paving the way for a $15B project that would open up a new route for North American gas to Asia, FT reports. CVX CEO John Watson says the project, a JV with Apache (APA), already has gained an export license. He seems keen to price the gas in relation to oil rather than lower-priced natural gas.
MasterCard (MA)
Mar13: 10:31 AM MasterCard (MA +0.5%) signs a deal with the Agricultural Bank of China to provide financial services to outbound Chinese tourists. Last year, 80M Chinese tourists went abroad, up 15% from the previous year.
Oracle (ORCL)
Mar13: Mar13: 1:20 PM Amazon (AMZN -0.2%) launches its 8.9-inch Kindle tablet in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan. In addition, the company lowered the prices on the larger-sized tablet in the U.S. to $269 for the Wi-Fi version and $399 for the 4G product. 12:32 PM Oracle (ORCL +0.5%) acquires Nimbula, a developer of software for managing private clouds. The purchase gives Oracle some technology and talent as it tries to develop a soup-to-nuts cloud solution for enterprises, and in doing so take on Microsoft, VMware, Amazon, and the OpenStack consortium. GigaOm’s Derrick Harris likes the move, given Oracle’s current private cloud strategy “seems hinged on selling big, expensive, over-engineered systems with some legacy Sun Microsystems and Oracle software cobbled together.”
Potash (POT)
Mar13: 2:57 PM Potash (POT -1.5%) seeks to soothe Israeli fears over a possible acquisition of Israel Chemicals, Globes says, as opponents use deal talk for political purposes in upcoming local elections. POT believes Israel Chemicals has no choice but to merge if it wants to stay relevant in the global fertilizer market in coming years.
Target (TGT)
Mar14: 8:24 AM Target Corporation (TGT) declares $0.36/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 2.14%. For shareholders of record May 15. Payable June 10. Ex-div date May 13.
Vale (VALE)
Mar13: 3:33 PM Vale (VALE -3.6%) plans to sell the Rio Colorado fertilizer project in Argentina to recoup the $2.2B it has invested in the suspended potash mine, railroad and port complex, Reuters reports. A sale would come just four years after Vale bought the project, then in the feasibility study phase, from Rio Tinto as part of an $850M deal.
Vad’s Catch of the Day
Kaimu’s Sound Money
Harp’s Roadmap