Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 14, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET]

Bill here.

When the new website is completed, I will better organize the work of contributors like Vad, kaimu and Harp so that you can easily access their archives.

Yesterday there was the following comment in the blog about Harp’s discussion at the Cara Toronto 2012 Conference (Sept 27-29):

Harp’s Roadmap posted at the top of yesterday’s blog
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-mar-13-2013#comment-118125
Submitted by x (13 comments) on Wed, 03/13/2013 – 20:37 #118125
For educational reasons only, I’m curious what factors led to the upward adjustment from 14300/13600 @ the 2012 conference to 14700/14200. I’m a learner and was very intrigued by Mr. Singh’s contribution to 2012. Both upstairs and down…
AMENDMENT:
Also for personal profit.

Maybe we can get some clarity on x’s comments: “Both upstairs and down… AMENDMENT: Also for personal profit.” I don’t know what any of that means.

Re the comment: “what factors led to the upward adjustment from 14300/13600 @ the 2012 conference”, I can say there was no 14300 target given at the Conference for the simple reason that the 2007 high was just under 14200 and so breaking above 14200 would have represented a technical break-out, and so Harp would not (because of mathematics), and didn’t, give a 14300 forecast at that point (13400 on the Dow that day). In fact, it was after the close on July 3 (12944) that Harp, in the blog, projected “the elongated third wave cycle and advance to 15600 between August 2013 to October 2013”, which is what, eight and a half months later, he is sticking to.

I’m going to re=publish the three entries of Harp’s Roadmap and people can decide if that was helpful for their purposes.

May 24, 2012

FULL DISCLOSURE
Harp is a professional trader who manages his own 8-figure account. He is long gold and gold stocks.

The coming roadmap for GOLD

Ever since Gold slipped from 1900 ($/once) in August 2011, further compounded by the resurging Euro crisis, Gold has attracted a multitude of sentiments towards its next fate.

Following is my prediction of the next roadmap for Gold based on my analysis
• First milestone movement:
Gold will bounce back to 1660 ($/ounce)

• Second milestone movement:
Gold will break 1900 ($/ounce) and reach 2100 ($/ounce)

• Third milestone movement:
Gold will hit 2600 to 2700 ($/ounce)

• Fourth milestone movement:
Gold will reach 3040 ($/ounce)


Jul 4, 2012

Harp’s Roadmap: Next Movement of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

Further to my analysis on the roadmap of Gold on May 24th, 2012, following is my prediction of DJIA’s upcoming price journey.

The current timeline & price point coordinates for DJIA are (July 3, 2012, 12943.82), DJIA is currently in its 3rd wave cycle; this is an elongated wave and will approach its cycle completion in the next 16 months.

DJIA will journey through this elongated third wave cycle and advance to 15600 between August 2013 to October 2013.


Dec 12, 2012

Next Journey for the S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index is currently in its 3rd wave. It approached the 1400 mark from its recent baseline and will now aim its next move toward the 1550 to 1575 mark. Once breaking through 1575 the S&P 500 Index will claim its climax of 1800 within 15 months from the current timeline in this wave cycle.

The views and opinions expressed by me are solely my own; Cara Community members should not treat any opinion expressed by me as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy. No warranty or guarantee of any kind, expressed or implied is given regarding the outcome analyzed by “Harp”.


As for me, I do not know any forecaster who has been as accurate as Harp. Like Vad and kaimu, he’ll be coming to the Cara Toronto 2013 conference (Sept 13-15). So to will Roy Bonnell, CEO of Argex Titanium. Btw, attendees in 2012 will recall the presentation of Mr. Atluri, CEO of MIC Electronics:
http://www.mic.in/images/stories/Directors/atluri.pdf
The company was recently awarded a contract with a city in India for 70,000 LED street lights. I am continuing to work with them.
http://www.mic.in/component/content/article/13-news/288-mic-bags-the-led…


Good morning, Geoff here.

Today and tomorrow mark the highest consecutive POMO days of March with a scheduled combined maximum outright treasury coupon purchases of $9.25 billion. It will be surprising if the equity market sees a sizable drop in the next 2 days

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

TLT is struggling to regain the 23.6% retracement, but you have to think that Fed assistance will be provided at former supports – the Fed doesn’t want bonds to fall apart and you can clearly see that possibility from the chart below. If bonds can rally, TLT may be able to confirm a new weekly cycle (marked on chart) but a failed confirmed cycle would mark a further decline that could be abrupt so we need to monitor this situation closely.

ggimage01_031413.png

The US Dollar rally is very long in the tooth and should decline pretty soon – we continue to wait on this.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,499.58 6:45AM EDT Up 3.58 (0.14%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,647.00 4:50AM EDT Up 18.40 (0.70%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,855.61 6:59AM EDT Up 19.57 (0.51%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 8,016.90 6:45AM EDT Up 45.99 (0.58%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 353.58 6:44AM EDT Up 1.56 (0.44%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 525.66 6:45AM EDT Up 1.28 (0.24%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 380.13 6:59AM EDT Up 2.75 (0.73%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 7,819.93 6:45AM EDT Up 39.05 (0.50%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 6,496.98 6:45AM EDT Up 15.48 (0.24%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,018.97 6:57AM EDT Up 2.15 (0.21%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,496.37 7:45AM EDT 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 965.38 6:44AM EDT Down 7.74 (0.80%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara 100 Company research notes from Seeking Alpha

Amazon.com (AMZN)

Mar14: 6:52 AM More on JPMorgan’s downgrade of Amazon (AMZN): The firm says its bottom-up analysis on Amazon suggests decelerating gross profit growth in 2013. In addition, 2014 EPS is taken down to $2.83/share from $3.01/share. AMZN -1.7% premarket. Mar13: 1:20 PM Amazon (AMZN -0.2%) launches its 8.9-inch Kindle tablet in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan. In addition, the company lowered the prices on the larger-sized tablet in the U.S. to $269 for the Wi-Fi version and $399 for the 4G product.


Chevron (CVX)

Mar13: 4:47 PM A barge and a Chevron (CVX) pipeline are on fire and an oil slick is visible in the waters of a bayou south of New Orleans after a tug pushing the barge crashed into the pipeline last night. CVX says it has shut in the pipeline, products are being rerouted, and it has mobilized emergency crews to help with the response. 9:36 AM Chevron (CVX) is in talks with potential buyers for Canada’s first exports of liquefied natural gas, paving the way for a $15B project that would open up a new route for North American gas to Asia, FT reports. CVX CEO John Watson says the project, a JV with Apache (APA), already has gained an export license. He seems keen to price the gas in relation to oil rather than lower-priced natural gas.


MasterCard (MA)

Mar13: 10:31 AM MasterCard (MA +0.5%) signs a deal with the Agricultural Bank of China to provide financial services to outbound Chinese tourists. Last year, 80M Chinese tourists went abroad, up 15% from the previous year.


Oracle (ORCL)

Mar13: Mar13: 1:20 PM Amazon (AMZN -0.2%) launches its 8.9-inch Kindle tablet in the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Japan. In addition, the company lowered the prices on the larger-sized tablet in the U.S. to $269 for the Wi-Fi version and $399 for the 4G product. 12:32 PM Oracle (ORCL +0.5%) acquires Nimbula, a developer of software for managing private clouds. The purchase gives Oracle some technology and talent as it tries to develop a soup-to-nuts cloud solution for enterprises, and in doing so take on Microsoft, VMware, Amazon, and the OpenStack consortium. GigaOm’s Derrick Harris likes the move, given Oracle’s current private cloud strategy “seems hinged on selling big, expensive, over-engineered systems with some legacy Sun Microsystems and Oracle software cobbled together.”


Potash (POT)

Mar13: 2:57 PM Potash (POT -1.5%) seeks to soothe Israeli fears over a possible acquisition of Israel Chemicals, Globes says, as opponents use deal talk for political purposes in upcoming local elections. POT believes Israel Chemicals has no choice but to merge if it wants to stay relevant in the global fertilizer market in coming years.


Target (TGT)

Mar14: 8:24 AM Target Corporation (TGT) declares $0.36/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 2.14%. For shareholders of record May 15. Payable June 10. Ex-div date May 13.


Vale (VALE)

Mar13: 3:33 PM Vale (VALE -3.6%) plans to sell the Rio Colorado fertilizer project in Argentina to recoup the $2.2B it has invested in the suspended potash mine, railroad and port complex, Reuters reports. A sale would come just four years after Vale bought the project, then in the feasibility study phase, from Rio Tinto as part of an $850M deal.


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


Harp’s Roadmap



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Bill Cara
Admin
March 15, 2013 2:52 am

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2013/03/

Interesting article the contents of which I have been telling you about for months.

I did gather the materials to help me produce a report on this, but I have been swamped with other matters. At some point, I hope to get it done.

Lot of things happening.

Woody516
Woody516
Reply to  Bill Cara
March 15, 2013 3:41 am

Bill, energy self-sufficiency for the U.S. would have huge implications for it’s economy and would certainly offer new avenues for investment. This article by F. William Engdahl offers a different perspective on the new energy boom that you may find interesting: http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-fracked-up-usa-sh

Ilya
Ilya
Reply to  Woody516
March 15, 2013 5:28 am

It’s always interesting to read clap-trap from people who know nothing about the Ahl and gaz bidness. Engdahl is an ‘againeer’ as in he’s against fracking, GMO foods and no doubt a plethera of other technologies that allow this tiny orb to sustain 6 billion people. No doubt also that he is a ‘fellow traveler’ of the ‘Club of Rome’ whose malthusian reprobates who would gladly kill off 90% of the population so that the lucky 10% could live in harmony with mother earth. Either that or he earns a good living promoting conspiricy theories… Whatever… Suffice to say that… Read more »

4ever
4ever
Reply to  Bill Cara
March 15, 2013 3:30 am

Many thanks for sharing this link and for providing Harp’s work. Masterpiece stuff.

Milesquare
Milesquare
March 15, 2013 12:55 am

This explains QE…..who else besides the Fed is a buyer?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive

westcoaster
westcoaster
March 15, 2013 12:29 am
baz22
baz22
Reply to  westcoaster
March 15, 2013 1:59 am

Odd…. Jamie’s profile photo reminds me a Lot of Bernie………

Ynot
Ynot
March 14, 2013 9:13 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-14/fed-gives

Okay, now that the share buybacks for the big banks can begin in earnest, is it time to start thinking correction after the price for the buyback is set?

EDIT: Or for a correction in the BKX?

x
x
March 14, 2013 8:07 pm

Sorry for the confusion Mr Cara. Upstairs and down meant his contribution at the conference as well as downstairs at the bar below the hotel. Sometimes my slang gets ahead of me. I wrote down everything he said at the conference as he was very specific, but I definitely could have made an error. I didn’t want the original post to come off in a bad way as I was really intrigued by his presentation and was curious. The amendment was only addressing that I started the post with ‘For educational reasons only’. Sorry if I caused you any trouble… Read more »

Bill Cara
Admin
Reply to  x
March 14, 2013 9:20 pm

x, I’m really happy you wrote to query his “Roadmap” and that you enjoyed the 2012 Conference so much. The 2013 Conference will definitely be the best one yet as we’ve chosen a much better venue and will have two rooms going at times. The “bar” will actually be our second room in the hotel (after 5pm) because we learned that people come to our Conferences to sit and have drinks etc with the speakers. We’re anticipating a much bigger group this year, so the personal networking will be better. As for me, this year I’ll be better prepared with… Read more »

x
x
Reply to  Bill Cara
March 14, 2013 9:51 pm

I’m with both of you (thankfully). I’ve been learning from you and the community ever since you taught me why I should consider moving from equities in 2007. It only makes sense to me that you and Mr Singh are on the same page. His command of the subject matter was truly amazing. Looking forward to Toronto (minus the traffic) and the bar wherever she may be. That last round of single malts did put a smooth finish on things.

Vadym Graifer
Reply to  x
March 14, 2013 10:55 pm

Did someone say “single malt”? Where was I??

x
x
Reply to  Vadym Graifer
March 14, 2013 11:40 pm

Glad you brought that up b/c I wanted to thank the right person again, who I believe is Shannon, for that round and make an interesting suggestion… A pool of funds from 2013 attendees could yield a few quality bottles for those who might be interested in a sampling. Count is @ 5 (round of 4 and Vad) now I guess??? Just a thought since we’ll definitely beat per drink prices… And we’re all about winning.

jock
jock
March 14, 2013 6:43 pm

Serious takeaway: always check up on your spell checker!

(viewer caution advised…)

Bill Cara
Admin
March 14, 2013 6:19 pm

I have been busy and could not reply to a query yesterday that I thought required doing so today. It’s at the top of today’s blog. Re the issue of gold and silver manipulation, it’s a lot like Jon Corzine or any of these other situations. It’s bigger than us. Since we don’t live in French Revolution times, nothing serious will be done about it. The only people who are charged and prosecuted are non-players. It’s a shame, but it is what it is — money talks and the people behind the Fed create whatever money they need to stay… Read more »

JimG
JimG
March 14, 2013 5:49 pm

Over 4 years of investigation…

Capital Account w/Lauren Lyster’s interview of CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton on November 13th, 2012…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np4hxXlvWsU

Grym
Grym
Reply to  JimG
March 14, 2013 6:48 pm
indptrader
indptrader
March 14, 2013 4:35 pm

Congradulations on the handsome grandbaby.

Bill Cara
Admin
March 14, 2013 4:03 pm

With a “perfect” 5-minute delivery, I guess there is no need to keep Baby Owen any longer in the hospital. He’s already home for lunch!

kaimu
Reply to  Bill Cara
March 14, 2013 4:50 pm

ALOHA!!

I have a caption for that photo …

“Oh no, more Papa-ratzzi!”

Looks like this kid is in for a lifetime of photo ops!!! HA!!!

Congratulations Cara family …

papadynamite
papadynamite
Reply to  Bill Cara
March 14, 2013 4:19 pm

Great picture!!!!!

Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
March 14, 2013 1:22 pm
Grym
Grym
March 14, 2013 12:42 pm
Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
Reply to  Grym
March 14, 2013 1:12 pm

Hi Grym,

If the Republican Party has any hope of surviving, it’s with the Ted Cruz and Rand Paul types within the party. If the McCain/Graham/McConnell leadership continues, one would hope to see a 3rd party emerge from the few, real, fiscal conservatives in the party.

Thanks for the video.

Regards,
BH

Grym
Grym
Reply to  Bull Hunter
March 14, 2013 6:42 pm

BH,

You’re welcome.

I totally agree and see Cruz and Paul as a beacon of hope.

I was sadly disappointed with McCain’s 2008 campaign. He was a mere shadow of his former self and seemed to be on a depressant or something. Nothing like the guy I’d read about who defied his jailers in Viet Nam.

He still comes across that way on TV.

Grym

mayhem991
mayhem991
March 14, 2013 12:08 pm

US regulator considering an inquiry into London’s gold and silver markets to check if prices are open to manipulation

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/mar/13/lon

bigwad1
bigwad1
Reply to  mayhem991
March 14, 2013 4:55 pm

It’s clear as mud when you take into consideration that two of the five banks connected to the precious metals price fixing blamed prior huge banking losses on a ROGUE trader. Now you need to figure out WHY this news about metals is being brought foreword now! Another rogue trader? So rogue that there might be some light shown on this price fixing scam that was conveniently covered up in the past????????

Scott
Scott
Reply to  bigwad1
March 14, 2013 5:30 pm

It is curious why now after all the noise that has been created over the years. Just as the following statement has me asking, “Why now?”:

“I am concerned that the size of some of these institutions becomes so large that it does become difficult for us to prosecute them when we are hit with indications that if you do prosecute…it will have a negative impact on the national economy…” 3/6/2013 Eric Holder, Attorney General, United States of America, (under oath in front of Congress)

Zerohedge_Link

bigwad1
bigwad1
Reply to  Scott
March 14, 2013 6:25 pm

How does Holder know that prosecution of the to-big-to-jail would have a negative impact on the national economy when it’s never been done before? They will bail them out but they won’t break them up and make them more transparent. Doesn’t matter if someone tried to make these institutions smaller, because the institutions own the judges from head to toe. The gubermint figured out how to break up AT&T claiming it was a communications monopoly 25 years ago. At the same time the wall street institutions were getting bigger by the day. Money is power and when you control the… Read more »

kaimu
Reply to  mayhem991
March 14, 2013 4:48 pm

ALOHA!! There is no retort to whether the gold price has been manipulated. There is however a question that should be the basis of all things government and banking and it is … What markets and what market prices have not been manipulated? If you view these elitists of government and money as monopolies, as I do, then you would have to assume that they act and strategize just like all past monopolies, which means they influence, manipulate and even break laws to retain control over their powers. What CEO or President or Chairman of any government or bank who… Read more »

Napoleon001
Napoleon001
Reply to  mayhem991
March 14, 2013 4:05 pm

Great, there’s going to be an inquiry, why now?

mayhem991
mayhem991
Reply to  Napoleon001
March 14, 2013 4:12 pm

The classic answer would be why not now but the real answer is I don’t know. Perhaps they were tired of hearing people talk about possible manipulation or maybe they wanted to start an investigation before too many people started talking about it.

Napoleon001
Napoleon001
Reply to  mayhem991
March 14, 2013 4:31 pm

Yes, I’m not sure that anyone here actually has the real answer regarding “why now”, but we know that there have been allegations of price manipulation regarding gold (and silver) prices for years,so just wondering why do they decide to announce this inquiry now?

4ever
4ever
Reply to  mayhem991
March 14, 2013 1:54 pm

They call it “price fixing” for a reason. Of course it’s been manipulated. There’s been no one to keep them honest. I seriously doubt the CFTC will stop the price fixing until they deem the banks have fully recovered(and covered their PM shorts).

I’d rather be wrong here, but history is what it is.

Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
Reply to  mayhem991
March 14, 2013 1:52 pm

Hi mayhem991,

Considering that CFTC Chairman, Gary Gensler, worked for 18 years at Goldman Sachs, I doubt anything will turn up. Hope I’m wrong.

Regards,
BH

mayhem991
mayhem991
Reply to  Bull Hunter
March 14, 2013 3:07 pm

I couldn’t agree more but with such a high profile investigation they are under pressure to find something, maybe not everything but something.

davefairtex
davefairtex
March 14, 2013 11:05 am
  • 6 in Buy alert
  • 13 in Distribution Zone
  • 7 in Sell alert
  • Accumulation Zone (5%): Monthly 6, Weekly 8, Daily 2
    Distribution Zone (24%): Monthly 27, Weekly 25, Daily 22

    davefairtex
    davefairtex
    March 14, 2013 11:04 am
  • 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims
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  • 4:30 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet
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