Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 13, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Bill here.

Our son Will sent this message and photo early today from the hospital:


Little Owen is in the middle of a demonstration on how a perfect delivery should go.

Owen Reilly Cara was born last night just before 10pm – 2 weeks early – just like his big Sister Caitlin. 6lbs 9oz with reddish curly hair (hopefully it lasts).

Fiona is doing great, and I’ve had enough coffee to fuel a car. Fiona is actually really happy that there is no chance now that she will miss going for fish and chips on Good Friday, which was the due date (real concern).

Caitlin stayed with Fiona’s parents last night, and is going to meet her little Brother at some point this afternoon.

St Mikes has been great again, and they’re hinting that we will be discharged tomorrow (Thursday), so today will be a day of rest – until visiting hours open anyways.

We’re about to watch the sunrise now and have a little chat to talk about how he can start making the world a better place.


Good morning, Geoff here.

Overnight, we sent out a free special report to those on our mailing list, so I will make this morning’s note short.

I failed to discuss the US Dollar in the report, but it is an important part of the message.

As you know, we have been waiting for the US Dollar rally to end. At that time, it will be “risk-on” in full. However, the Dollar strength has been amazing. You can see it in the chart below:


You can see that the Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, CRB, Gold and HUI have all moved above their respective 10 dma. However, that is only one day and until the US Dollar is clearly moving down again, that trend will not remain as the securities listed will be unable to find a true uptrend.

The good news is that the Buck is reaching the point of being extremely over-loved, which marks tops in moves. So, after a little more rally, the table will be set for a decline that could be quite shocking to most observers.


(chart courtesy of

When the US Dollar begins to move lower, the items in the report will be moving up.

If you are not yet on our list, please e-mail us at [email protected] and we will add your email address and get you the latest report.

Have a great trading day!

Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,490.69 6:45AM EDT Down 18.45 (0.74%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,626.80 Mar 12 Down 3.10 (0.12%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,825.43 6:59AM EDT Down 14.54 (0.38%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,946.94 6:45AM EDT Down 19.18 (0.24%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 351.06 6:45AM EDT Down 1.00 (0.28%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 525.20 6:45AM EDT Down 2.22 (0.42%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 375.95 6:43AM EDT Down 1.20 (0.32%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 7,766.28 6:45AM EDT Down 36.65 (0.47%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 6,457.36 6:45AM EDT Down 53.26 (0.82%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,017.20 6:59AM EDT Down 6.30 (0.62%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,501.76 8:00AM EDT 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 947.61 6:44AM EDT Up 6.44 (0.68%) Chart, More

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

Cara 100 Company research notes from Seeking Alpha (AMZN)

Mar12: 11:01 AM More on Amazon: 1) Morningstar and CIRP estimate Amazon’s Prime subs have surpassed 10M. They also estimate Prime members spend an average of $1,200/year on Amazon (twice as much as others), and that Amazon made $78 per Prime sub last year after various expenses. Bloomberg previously reported Amazon had only 3M-5M Prime subs as of Oct. ’11. 2) Amazon Web Services is making a stronger push for enterprise accounts by adding virtual private clouds as a default option. Microsoft, VMware, and OpenStack supporters are pitching private and/or hybrid clouds as an alternative to AWS.

BHP Billiton (BHP)

Mar13: 6:39 AM BHP (BHP) has denied any wrongdoing associated with its sponsorship of the Beijing Olympics, saying that it believes its “activities complied with all applicable law.” BHP’s comments came after Australian police and U.S. authorities opened an investigation into bribery allegations against BHP in relation to the games, which took place in 2008. Shares -0.2% premarket. Mar12: 11:56 AM BHP Billiton (BHP) is the subject of a joint U.S.-Australian criminal bribery investigation into alleged inducements, hospitality or gifts given to foreign officials including Chinese dignitaries, as part of a multimillion-dollar hospitality and sponsorship program for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Authorities allege BHP broke several laws, including the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

Boeing (BA)

Mar12: 5:08 PM Boeing (BA) receives FAA approval for the company’s plan to test and certify improvements to the 787’s battery system. Successful completion of each step within the plan will result in the FAA’s approval to resume commercial 787 flights.

Chevron (CVX)

Mar12: 5:45 PM Chevron (CVX) plans to invest $36.7B to increase its oil and gas production this year, but only ~25% will be spent in the U.S., CEO John Watson tells CNBC. Increasing the proportion of money CVX puts into the U.S. will depend on more acreage being made available for exploration, easier permitting and more prudent environmental regulations.

Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Mar12: 11:01 AM More on Amazon: 1) Morningstar and CIRP estimate Amazon’s Prime subs have surpassed 10M. They also estimate Prime members spend an average of $1,200/year on Amazon (twice as much as others), and that Amazon made $78 per Prime sub last year after various expenses. Bloomberg previously reported Amazon had only 3M-5M Prime subs as of Oct. ’11. 2) Amazon Web Services is making a stronger push for enterprise accounts by adding virtual private clouds as a default option. Microsoft, VMware, and OpenStack supporters are pitching private and/or hybrid clouds as an alternative to AWS.

Coca-Cola (KO)

Mar13: 5:12 AM Coca-Cola (KO) has found itself in a bit of hot water in China’s southwestern Yunnan province, where authorities have accused the company of illegally mapping its territory and using GPS devices to gather confidential information. Coke says it uses the mapping systems for customer-services and logistical reasons; the Chinese are sensitive about it due to national security and border disputes.

Google (GOOG)

Mar12: 6:15 PM Google (GOOG) has bought DNNResearch, a startup leveraging neural networks to improve voice/image search. The purchase appears to be an “acqui-hire” – DNNresearch doesn’t have any products, but it does have Prof. Geoffrey Hinton, a renowned neural network expert. Google had long had an interest in using neural networks to analyze content not easily handled by traditional search algorithms.

Target (TGT)

Mar 13: 8:18 AM Target (TGT) is taken down to a Neutral rating from Buy by Buckingham Research with a price target of $69. It appears to be a valuation call based on the 13.4% YTD run shares of Target are on despite the retailer’s slow sales start to the year. TGT -0.6% premarket. Mar12: 1:37 PM Target (TGT -0.2%) says it won’t bring back its boutique shops concepts as it plans to increase the focus on partnerships instead. Though the retailer didn’t break out its sales, analysts think performance with the shops launched last year came in below expectations.

Toyota Motors (TM)

Mar13: 7:02 AM Toyota (TM) plans to launch the first global advertising campaign for its Lexus brand in May as it looks to gain ground on rivals (BMW, Audi, and Mercedes) that are outselling it by a wide margin. The company’s marketing department is considering going with the silent treatment – leaving music, images, and text to sell the Lexus brand.

United Technologies (UTX)

Mar12: 3:42 PM United Technologies (UTX +0.2%) gets some positive press from UBS today, who reiterated its Buy rating and raises its price target from $91 to $105. The firm says is the stock poised for an upside move, citing easing order comps, increased earnings visibility and solid free cash flow.

Vad’s Catch of the Day

Kaimu’s Sound Money

Deron’s Daily ETF Analysis

Point and Figure on Canada


Harp’s Roadmap

Cara on the Metalminers

Cara on the International Markets

CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

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March 14, 2013 3:19 am
March 14, 2013 1:19 am

kept to the flat line for over a year..( with the usual < > ).. nice and quite, now.. good.. I remember old Mr. show-me, Vrus… your lost cousin ! How about we cover the sub-sets too… how much would you fetch ? Your couz went for $ 125 a couple of years ago,.. and you are going pill form ?? Damn…. interested to see that follow-up data at Gild… Relapse % ??.. still think they will show a few bugs in the soup with that brew… so, do you have a soft spot in your heel, Achn ? Lets… Read more »

March 14, 2013 12:53 am

MONTREAL, March 13, 2013 /CNW Telbec/ – Argex Titanium Inc. (TSXV: RGX) (“Argex”) is proud to announce it has joined the American Coatings Association (ACA), a non-profit trade organization representing the biggest names in the paint and coatings industry, including manufacturers, suppliers, distributors and associated technical professionals. The ACA serves as an advocate and ally for members on legislative, regulatory and judicial issues. It also focuses on advancements in science and technology through its technical conferences and journals, as well as online training opportunities. In addition, ACA offers essential business information to members through its publications, surveys, and business programs.… Read more »

March 14, 2013 12:30 am

Congrats Bill. Welcome proof of the truly important cycles in life (in addition to cycles in markets). Lost a friend and hockey buddy the other night to an on-ice heart-attack. As you have wisely noted here in the blog many times: “To every thing there is a season, turn turn…”

Reply to  cwinsor
March 14, 2013 12:51 am

Congratulations on the birth of your healthy new grandson, Bill.As you and your family feel blessed to have him I’m sure he will feel the same under all of your loving care and guidance.

March 14, 2013 12:37 am

For educational reasons only, I’m curious what factors led to the upward adjustment from 14300/13600 @ the 2012 conference to 14700/14200. I’m a learner and was very intrigued by Mr. Singh’s contribution to 2012. Both upstairs and down…

Also for personal profit.

Bill Cara
March 13, 2013 10:49 pm

Will followed up with this message and photo:

It’s the end of day 1 and Owen wanted to thank everyone for their best wishes. He’s getting stronger by the minute and is a pretty happy guy.

Attached is another picture of him falling asleep in his 21st hour.

J D Wingert
J D Wingert
Reply to  Bill Cara
March 14, 2013 12:22 am

God bless and keep him for all his years.

March 13, 2013 10:37 pm

all in the name of fighting a few terrorists ….

March 13, 2013 10:36 pm

Handsome baby !

Owen is a great name too – it’s my son’s middle name and that of my grandson too!

March 13, 2013 7:34 pm

ALOHA!! What of global government subsidies? We hear about the US FED subsidies for US FED member banks almost daily. Have not heard one peep about how governments spend bazillions propping up prices for every major commodity on the planet. In Japan for example rice farmers are subsidized at two times the rate American farmers are. One of the largest subsidized companies in America is GM. Other US car manufacturers are heavily subsidized like Ford and Chrysler are all in the top ten biggest subsidies. Take a look at how GM sucks welfare capital out of every federal and state… Read more »

March 13, 2013 5:26 pm

2013 Gold Forecast

March 13, 2013 5:22 pm
March 13, 2013 4:54 pm

Congrats Bill and family. Now you have one of each.

March 13, 2013 4:11 pm

$4m debenture converted to common at $.23. Trading at $.05-.08. Bit of a disconnect.

Reply to  westcoaster
March 13, 2013 7:16 pm

ALOHA!! To continue that thought the exec John Byrne said … “The restructuring of the Aponet debt significantly strengthens EastCoal’s balance sheet and the conversion price agreed, relative to the December 2012 issue price and the current market price, emphasises Aponet’s continued belief in the value creation potential of EastCoal’s asset portfolio.” I hear Byrne, ex-Western Coal exec, will step up and do a mini-McEwen if need be to make it happen. I bought today … Some here might ask how I can keep buying these low priced juniors? What is my rationale? It is not rocket science. Unless blood… Read more »

Ventilation Blues
Ventilation Blues
Reply to  kaimu
March 14, 2013 5:35 am

So would you say SLR and PMV are currently over priced?
SLR has stepped back massively and appears to be reluctant to leap ahead again immediately. Both have had an approximate 50% SHAVE. Are these prices buy in opportunities or have the salad days ended?

Reply to  Ventilation Blues
March 14, 2013 11:52 am

ALOHA!! PMV-The Keegan deal was at $0.84C and it got shot down by major shareholders who were not happy with the price in relation to Keegan assets. Based on that alone then anything under $0.84C is low, but you also have to factor in management. After all they have to execute on the assets and in my opinion they have not performed. SLR-Well if you read my past posts on SLR then you’d see the inside execs are all buying at the $2.14A range. You would also note the huge Macquarie Bank share lending scheme with top NY banks, like… Read more »

March 13, 2013 3:54 pm

He’s got this expression that could be a little pain and disapproval of the world he senses is out there as if he’s looking out and thinking, I can’t believe what you silly humans are up to out here and how unnecessarily messy our world is. Give me a little time and i’ll straighten you all out and show you how its done. It could also be simply Nirvana. Imagine….a clean slate. A gift to us all. I like the world better already.

March 13, 2013 3:22 pm

MINI-OPTIONS start trading Mar 18 . . . 1 contract covers 10 shares . .. if one can’t afford regular options, probably should stay away.

Barron’s alluded to marketing hype preceeding the launch (“mumbo jumbo”) and suspects it will become the domain of momentum traders.

BTW, yesterday was the first day of U.S. Derivatives Mandatory Clearing. Didn’t notice any hiccups.

March 13, 2013 3:16 pm

Congratulations Bill!

And thanks for sharing a photo of Owen. Brings a smile to one’s face. I’m sure you’re smile is wide too. 🙂

Reply to  Seamus
March 13, 2013 4:47 pm

Bill and Family, Congratulations!

March 13, 2013 3:04 pm

Owen is worth more than all the gold in the world!! Congrats to the family and grandparents!! papadynamite!!! Boom!!!!

March 13, 2013 3:03 pm
Reply to  szoya
March 14, 2013 12:52 am

I think the key word in that sentence is “may”, because you sure wouldn’t come to that conclusion from looking at our exports of precious metals to Hong Kong and China. What do they plan to buy from us instead?

Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
March 13, 2013 1:37 pm

BA – PT Lifted from $85 to $100 @ Stifel. Buy

CVX – Chevron estimates were updated at UBS. Earnings estimates through 2014 were increased. At the company’s analyst meeting management reaffirmed prior growth targets. Price target remains $120.

TGT – Target downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Buckingham due to valuation, weaker Q4 same-store-sales, gross margin pressures, and expectations for a deceleration in Pfresh and 5% rewards benefits. Price target remains $69.

March 13, 2013 1:14 pm

Direxion will initiate a 1-for-5 reverse split of the shares of the Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NUGT) for shareholders of record after the close of the markets on Monday, April 1, 2013.

Reply to  JimG
March 13, 2013 1:21 pm

Never even knew that one existed Jim, which tells me the state of the ETF market. Suckers play. Admittedly TNA intraday can be a great wicket, otherwise steering clear of em.

March 13, 2013 12:38 pm

And to the Cara family, whom we met during last year’s conference. Good stuff Mr. Cara. Like you’ve said, babies will be born.

Bull Hunter
Bull Hunter
March 13, 2013 12:17 pm

Good morning. 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 08:30 Retail Sales 08:30 Import/Export Prices 10:00 Business Inventories 10:30 Crude Inventories 14:00 Treasury Budget —— ABB – ABB upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura. BA – BB&T upgraded Boeing to Hold from Underweight. After Boeing expressed confidence that its redesigned battery system would quickly be approved by the FAA, BB&T no longer expects a lengthy re-certification process to be necessary, as it expects testing of the changes to be completed within seven weeks. CVX – PT Lifted from $129 to $133 @ Cowen. Buy ORCL – Oracle upgraded to Buy from Hold… Read more »

March 13, 2013 11:24 am
  • 1 in Accumulation Zone
  • 6 in Buy alert
  • 11 in Distribution Zone
  • 7 in Sell alert
  • Accumulation Zone (4%): Monthly 6, Weekly 5, Daily 2
    Distribution Zone (25%): Monthly 29, Weekly 24, Daily 24

    March 13, 2013 11:24 am
  • 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications
  • 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales
  • 8:30 AM ET Import and Export Prices
  • 10:00 AM ET Business Inventories
  • 10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
  • 1:00 PM ET 10-Yr Note Auction
  • 2:00 PM ET Treasury Budget