Cara Community

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In our community we students of the market openly discuss our various market insights and thoughtful opinions in support of a wider understanding of price behavior. Join us and share your thoughts!
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baz22
baz22
September 21, 2020 4:22 pm

Pax Romana

skyler
skyler
September 21, 2020 3:16 pm
skyler
skyler
September 21, 2020 2:21 pm

nat gas off ~11%: https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas
eqt + range resources have recently turned up. montage flat* atm
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eqt,%20rrc,%20mr
*https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwestern-energys-stock-drops-after-montage-resources-buyout-deal-55-million-share-offering-2020-08-12?siteid=yhoof2

skyler
skyler
September 21, 2020 2:03 pm

semi’s off the lows, advanced micro advancing +3%
semi’s: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=smh
amd: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

goldbug58
goldbug58
Reply to  Bill Cara
September 21, 2020 1:30 pm

Looks to me like spoofing (bullion bank action) in silver, which we’ve seen recently (big hammer down days in Aug and overnight action at least once in Asia); gold is a bit more resilient; price is back over 1900. Hurts a little, but overall theme remains in place.

Greg
Greg
Reply to  Bill Cara
September 21, 2020 11:52 am

Hi Bill, I also bought in to the miners and this is where I struggle. Many times in the past I have decided I am on the wrong side of the trade, sold, and then watched as the direction reversed and I got left standing at the station with a booked loss watching the train take off. I’ve also held on expecting a reversal as a stock keeps dropping. At this point I plan to hang on, but I can see an all out pump up the market and paint a pretty picture until election day at the expense of… Read more »

goldbug58
goldbug58
Reply to  Greg
September 21, 2020 1:32 pm

What I have found to work for me in the miners is wider stops on positions; it lets me stay in the trade except on absolute panic selling in which case I’d want to be stopped out.

kaimu
kaimu
September 21, 2020 9:53 am

Aloha! Whatever the VXRT CEO is saying at the EU conferences is working! I bought more at pre-market. Up about 3% in a down market. Nice to see something in the EU that is not as ugly as EU banks caught money laundering. When haven’t they been money laundering? Problem is nothing will change until there is some jail time.

tobyt
tobyt
Reply to  kaimu
September 21, 2020 11:08 am

ditto…nibbled some more and also sold the $8 puts for this friday for $.50……do not want to get smug but this has certainly turned into a cash cow (so far)

baz22
baz22
Reply to  tobyt
September 21, 2020 12:04 pm

🐄….eat mo’ chikin…

Last edited 9 hours ago by baz22
tobyt
tobyt
Reply to  baz22
September 21, 2020 12:56 pm

funny………made me grin on a somewhat unsettling day although the bios and kaimus kodak are holding well…………….

Pierre
Pierre
September 20, 2020 8:51 pm

MRNA insider selling is continuing! Underwater in this one.

baz22
baz22
Reply to  Pierre
September 20, 2020 11:17 pm

And a Congressional subcommittee is raising cane over Kodak options, which, except for a large gift to a bonafide charity ( not children , as with Moderna) from the CEO, not one sell from any that were granted the options… How many Congress members own Moderna in a 401, etc ? …. I’m betting more than a few.

Last edited 22 hours ago by baz22
baz22
baz22
September 20, 2020 2:03 pm

It just hit me…Vaxart is the N -95 ( or N-100 ) of vaccines … ” Front line defense ” is the exact description the CEO gave … How about that…. ” Mucosal protection – the nose and throat “…. the accepted medical opinion is the virus enters through either the throat or, most likely, the nasal passages…. Eyes ?…maybe, but the membranes there would channel to the throat… VXRT, you are my hero…. 😊

Last edited 1 day ago by baz22
baz22
baz22
September 19, 2020 8:57 pm

Peru orders 9.9 million Covid 19 vaccine doses from Pfizer/BioNTech… .

JimG
JimG
September 19, 2020 2:11 pm

SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates associated with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels
“Studied blood samples from Quest Diagnostics of more than 190,000 Americans from all 50 states and found that those who had deficient levels of vitamin D had 54% higher COVID positivity compared to those with adequate levels of vitamin D in the blood.”

“The risk of getting coronavirus continued to decline as vitamin D levels increased…”

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0239252

goldbug58
goldbug58
September 19, 2020 1:51 pm

Eldorado Gold (EGO). This mid-tier miner disappointed me in the gold bear market that ended in Dec 2015, after gold had peaked at $1900+ in 2011. They sold some producing mines in China with good ore grades and went into Greece (Skouries) where permitting issues have dragged on for some 5-7 years now. The flagship Kisladag mine in Turkey, is open-pit heap leaching at 1.0 g /ton (the next payload grade is basically, dirt). As a result, the proclaimed “million-ounce producer” dropped to about 256,000 ounces a short time after that. They seem to produce a lot more silver than… Read more »

Pierre
Pierre
September 18, 2020 11:39 pm

AGI is down but MMX and OR have done well over this week.

baz22
baz22
September 18, 2020 5:07 pm

Did Vaxart register that vaccine patent in Europe ? … what if this becomes NVAX redux ? Look how long Novavax meandered in the sub- $ 5.00 wilderness … Oh how $ 400 million would help these people … 🏜

Last edited 3 days ago by baz22
rayg
rayg
Reply to  baz22
September 18, 2020 9:03 pm

I am very underwater with my VXRT position but still holding. My avg cost is in the low 12s. Will be patient with this one.

baz22
baz22
Reply to  rayg
September 19, 2020 9:26 am

Hi ray… yes I remember when you bought … probably the most important thing I have ever learned since beginning ‘ Biotech ‘ trades in the late 1990’s, ( and still see $$$ floating in front of my eyes ! ) is buying when the crowd is ignoring… this is the hardest part of Buying, because I don’t ever want to buy in a confirmed downtrend, even a low prices… usually it takes those small Biotech’s many months to flatten out… and they have to have something Really special….. out of the test tube ( invitro ) and At Least… Read more »

Last edited 2 days ago by baz22
tobyt
tobyt
Reply to  baz22
September 19, 2020 8:07 pm

re VXRT…..a fantastic option play for the monthly option expiration (4 weeks/oct 16th) is selling a like amount of the vxrt 7 1/2 puts and the 12 1/2 calls…(you already have a stock position)….the premiums are so high you can easily get $2.5 for the spread….losing it would be profitable or buying more at net $5 should be good also…..I have something very similar in my acount at the present time

goldbug58
goldbug58
September 18, 2020 4:30 pm

Kinross Gold (KGC) enjoyed a nice up day, extra nice for me as I have 20 contracts (calls) for Jan 2022 at the 7 strike. Ordinarily I’d sell here for a profit since they’ve almost doubled. Yet, I think KGC, which just declared a div for first time since 2013, is signaling that it expects to keep making money going forward. Another stimulus bill is on the table in Washington–the only question left is how much will be spent this time around. I’m a big believer in gold and silver here, both physical and the miners. Hope you all had… Read more »

goldbug58
goldbug58
Reply to  Bill Cara
September 19, 2020 1:52 pm

Always a good idea to re-balance the portfolio (I’m glad that you like KGC).

baz22
baz22
September 18, 2020 2:35 pm

Iovance is going to follow Immunomedics..

Last edited 3 days ago by baz22
bigpicture
bigpicture
September 18, 2020 12:51 pm

Hey folks. To baz22 or anyone else. I haven’t seen any mention of PPD, forgive me if I missed seeing any. Here’s what they do — “PPD, Inc. provides drug development services to the biopharmaceutical industry worldwide. The company operates through Clinical Development Services and Laboratory Services segments. It offers clinical development services, including product development and consulting, early development, Phases II-IV clinical trial management, accelerated enrollment, peri- and post-approval, and medical communications services. The company also provides laboratory services comprising bioanalytical, biomarker, vaccine science, good manufacturing practice, and central laboratory services. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, medical device, and government… Read more »

bigpicture
bigpicture
Reply to  Bill Cara
September 18, 2020 3:46 pm

Hi Bill. Yes it does. FWIW, 2 indicators I like are 1) relative strength vs. SP500, and 2) RSI14. On both I plot an m.a., and if the m.a. stays above neutral, all is well. I found it amazing how the RSI m.a. shows the trend is intact despite 1 or 2 day drops in the stock, allowing me to avoid reacting to whipsaws. As with most good indicators, works well on longer time frames also.

bigpicture
bigpicture
Reply to  bigpicture
September 18, 2020 3:54 pm

Oops, need to clarify. The relative strength vs. Sp 500, the line just needs to stay above the m.a. For Wilder’s RSI 14, THAT m.a. needs to stay above neutral.

baz22
baz22
Reply to  bigpicture
September 18, 2020 1:05 pm

Hi Big… I actually bought 300 starter shares 1 week after the IPO , but sold when the virus invaded the US … I made a decision to buy back SDGR in April… I was allocating most capital into vaccine/protective stocks then, and didn’t want an overlap on two pharma manufacturing companies… both are excellent, but went with the most hyped at that time, SDGR… Hope you are well…

Last edited 3 days ago by baz22
bigpicture
bigpicture
Reply to  baz22
September 18, 2020 3:34 pm

I appreciate the reply. As we both know, this sector (esp. on a short to intermediate term) isn’t for sissies. One great lesson I learned about 2 yrs. ago, I bought 2 bios on the same day. Literally, within a week, one doubled while the other lost 90%! Never a dull moment.

kaimu
kaimu
September 18, 2020 12:46 pm

Aloha! One of my best more resilient energy plays has been Genie Energy(GNE). It pays a dividend at near 4% and it has been resilient due to its diversity, being part fossil fuel and part new energy even with some retail/residential utility thrown in.

The one thing nobody even counts is this company’s large oil and gas land holding in the Golan Heights. I could see a deal happen if Trumps MidEast Peace Plan, the Abraham Accord, pays off.

KBILL77.JPG
baz22
baz22
September 18, 2020 12:44 pm

Went shopping… IOVA and DCPH. … both well advanced into cancer, with good platforms.. I personally believe Deciphera ( working on stomach tumors, called GIST – phase 3…. FDA decision in December ) .. is further along than Blueprint ( BPMC )..

Last edited 3 days ago by baz22
baz22
baz22
Reply to  baz22
September 18, 2020 2:25 pm

I did restart SLDB early this week… yes, its hyper risk .. but the founder has a son with the dreaded disease, DMD.. the dedication is throughout the entire company… They have been struggling with finding the proper ‘ viral vector ‘ delivery system… for the proper LNP delivery vehicle…. the good thing is discoveries are almost weekly in LNP work in the world of Biotech … I think they do find what will work for their molecule.. * one Very important fact – Solid Bioscience is working to address All forms of DMD .. All variants of the disease..… Read more »

Last edited 3 days ago by baz22