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The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index plummets
This morning’s report on manufacturing ought to be shocking to US Dollar Bulls.
More to come? I don’t know, but I believe that this number ought to be considered by investors.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ny-empire-state-manufacturing-index-323
Manufacturing weakness of this magnitude ought to be a significant push to the Gold Bulls to once again lift Gold futures back over 1800
Stifel reports on Wheaton Precious (WPM), one of my Core 12 Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM-TSX, C$42.99, Buy; Target C$66.50) – In-line Q2, but revised 2022 guidance and 5-to-10 year outlook – Ingrid Rico – Impact: Mixed — neutral on Q2, but negative on guidance revision. WPM reported broadly in-line Q2 results, with adjusted EPS of $0.33 (vs our estimate of $0.33; consensus of $0.32). Metal sales were broadly as we expected, but there was notably lower-than-anticipated production at Salobo (planned and corrective maintenance; with additional maintenance work in H2), Stillwater (regional floods impacting operations; expecting a soft Q3) and Voisey’s Bay. With that,… Read more »
Concerns about the Re-steepening of inverted 10-2 year US Treasury Yield Curve Stifel reported Canadian and US Treasury Yield Curves are still in deep inversion territory. However, as we have established here, it is not the inversion that concerns us for Equity performance, it is the Re-Steepening. So, where to take shelter during the inversion period? Well, we looked back during the last two similar deep inversion re-steeping periods and analyzed what worked, and what did not, from a Factor, Sector and Individual Stock perspective. Sector Performance during the 2000-2001 and 2007-20009 yield curve re-steepening shows Consumer Staples, Utilities, Financials, Energy, and Materials… Read more »
A very strong US Dollar this morning pressures commodities to start the week
Oil, Gold, Silver, and Copper started the week lower
As noted last week, there was a tug-of-war going on for 105 for the Dollar Index and 1800 for Gold. The Dollar Bulls are pulling ahead now,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi3Qr1iQUnw
New Pacific Metals (NEWP) and Silvercorp (SVM) are both featured in the video above, at around the 14:00 mark.
Garrett Goggin is featured in this video. He is an analyst for Stansberry Research and focuses specifically on the Silver sector. His discussion on the volatility and the inherent leverage in silver stocks as a result of profit margin is spot on. He also speaks wisely of the downsides inherent in the juniors.
Thanks for the clip. The Silver analyst clearly is a fan of Rui Feng, Silvercorp, and New Pacific Metals. And so am I for the reasons he gives: Value creation, earnings without dilution, dividends, etc. About Silvercrest, I know many of you are high on the company and I have not been. Shortly after they acquired the property in Mexico from First Majestic, I had lunch with co-founder/CEO Eric Fier. What stuck in my mind was this was another narrow vein hi-grade precious metals property that would be milked for years by news releases to raise risk capital and become… Read more »
Recent article on Inplay Oil from Simply Wallstreet and why its share price has been held back. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inplay-oil-corp-tse-ipo-121728667.html They also advertise access to a free report. https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/energy/tsx-ipo/inplay-oil-shares?blueprint=2131723&utm_campaign=integrated-pitch&utm_medium=finance_user&utm_source=yahoo#future I have to say that I do not entirely disagree with their assessment. Inplay is a fantastically well-managed and disciplined company. They have done an outstanding job at reducing debt, keeping costs low, and increasing reserves. What investors need going forward (once company eliminates debt) is a vision and a dividend. Their CEO is as authentic and disciplined as they come and people know that InPlay is a deep value play with a… Read more »
SIGA
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katiecamero/how-monkeypox-spreads
baz22tradingpartner
Ok, Alamos Gold vs. Equinox Gold, used to trade about even in price, Alamos had a good Q2 and Equinox is now a turnaround story having dropped to $4/share. Alamos Gold, 104K oz. Au, 5% increase over Q1, cash costs $894/oz, AISC $1170; net earnings $29M, cash flow $76M. Has three mines in operation and they all look good: Island Gold, Young-Davidson and La Yaqui Grande. Equinox 120k oz. Au (six mines though), AISC $1657 due to lower production sold; lost money in the quarter. I’d buy AGI on dips near to $7; would accumulate EQX under $4, say in… Read more »
Very helpful
Thanks
Heck of a week for many Biotechs
NVTA, KRTX, and BCAB especially
Is Fed Chair Powell trapped or is he a Goofus? Late in March this year, the S&P 500 index started dropping. I started blogging about liquidity contraction, and I was right. That is when the Fed started to reduce its balance sheet. In mid-July, I had been asking if the Fed was forcing the economy into recession until the S&P 500 started lifting, along with commodities (Oil, Gold, Silver, Oil, and Crypto). Powell had stopped contracting the Fed’s balance sheet. When faced with a choice of causing a recession or easing up on his inflation fight, the market told us… Read more »
The bottom line to what I am saying here is that capital markets are being manipulated more this year than ever. This means we are closer to a command economy than ever. We have to stop talking about right or left, Republican or Democrat, and start speaking up about the need for free market capitalism. If over many generations, one thing we all learned in spades from government and our central banks is that they make mistake after mistake and hold us accountable. We are the people paying their salaries but we can’t stop their stupidities. Why did Pelosi go… Read more »
Uranium Energy Corp filed a technical report
UEC is one of my larger holdings and the only Uranium investment I have and will likely make.
CEO Amir Adnani is the seriously talented promoter of Uranium Energy Corp, and main reason I selected UEC among several good Uranium companies
Canadian Oilers are outperforming and are expected to continue When I refer to demand-supply, the usual causality issues like economic growth or recession are not today so applicable. The biggest factor is the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Putin’s decision to cut off energy supplies to countries that are supporting Ukraine. This matter will continue for many quarters going forward, so I foresee #WTI trading in the 80-90 range through 12-18 months. The biggest winners in the Canadian Oilers in the past three months are: Vermillion Energy +39.6% Journey Energy +30.6% Obsidian Energy +27.3% Cardinal Energy +25.9% InPlay was a… Read more »
The battle for 1800 Gold and 105 USD Index continues this morning
A wild three weeks after I more than doubled my already large InPlay Oil position IPO.to opened at C$3.79 yesterday after releasing an outstanding quarterly earnings report. I was very confident in my decision on Friday, July 15, when I bought two-thirds of the stock traded on the market that day. As you may recall, Biden was in Saudi Arabia to ask MBS to increase Oil production, which I found hard to believe. Bill CaraAugust 1, 2022 9:12 amInPlay Oil (IPO.to)(IPOOF) continues to strengthenOn Friday, July 18, I more than doubled my position in InPlay Oil, and wrote it up… Read more »
btw, the Stifel/First Energy research, which in my opinion is the best in Canada, does not even cover InPlay Oil Corp. No concern on my part — after the stock goes a lot higher, they will cover it — but I will ask Doug Bartole why this is the case when they all work in Calgary.
Chile’s Proposed Constitutional Changes to Natural Resources Rights Could Have Devastating Effects on Foreign Investors: How Can International Law Protect Them?
https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2022/08/chiles-proposed-constitutional-changes-to-natural-resources-rights
Aloha frip! I know lawyers at Jones Day. My God that company is huge and not just USA huge but WORLD huge. It gets tiresome as an investor to have to interpret regulations and politics every day to figure out if your investment will still be above water next month. I used to live in Venezuela and we knew the military was in charge. Thats just how military juntas are and its been that way in South America and Central America forever and today. Any military in any one of those countries can change the government and the laws any… Read more »
frip99,
You are absolutely right.
Copper is now in play.
I suggest you to wait until September 4th to invest in copper mines. The Chilean constitutional project does not have popular support and, according to several opinion polls, it will be rejected on that date
A not-unfair critique of the mining industry From IKN (Mark Turner) My stars, this sector sucks. A list of companies reporting Q2’s post-close today: Pan American Silver (PAAS) sucked Wesdome Gold (WDO.to) sucked Fortuna Silver (FSM) sucked McEwen Mining (MUX) sucked Argonaut Gold (AR.to) suckedAnd then they wonder why traders ignore the mining companies. Between the brass-necked sociopaths running the ripoff explorecos and the mediocrity running the operators, what have these talentless and overpaid stuffed suits done for us lately? The only management team to deliver today is Franco-Nevada (FNV), possibly because they’re smart enough to get other people to… Read more »
Input cost(s) of mining impacted a lot of the miners, I would add Centerra and Hecla Mining to this list and a few others.
Barrick, B2 Gold, did okay.
Gold Fields has not reported yet (17th) but should also be okay.
Good observation.
I kind of agree with the IVN perspective in that the pandemic, inflation, and supply chain issues have become excuses. Often there are more direct factors like dubious management decisions, lower ore grades, and local activists that management is prone to covering up in these reports as it’s human nature to deflect personal criticism.
InPlay Oil (IPO.to)(IPOOF) delivers as promised The quarterly earnings report will drive the share price higher, which pleases me greatly as readers can imagine. InPlay Oil is my only Oiler stock. https://www.inplayoil.com/sites/2/files/documents/press_release_-_q2_2022_final.pdf Generated record quarterly adjusted funds flow (“AFF”)(2) of $40.9 million ($0.47 per weighted average basic share(3)), an increase of 398% compared to $8.2 million ($0.12 per weighted average basic share) in the second quarter of 2021 and an increase of 39% compared to $29.4 million ($0.34 per weighted average basic share) in the first quarter of 2022, our prior record quarter. Increased operating netbacks(4) by 84% to $61.02/boe… Read more »
US Producer Prices dropped for the first time in almost two years
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238
The initial indication is that the US Dollar is weakening.
PPI was much less than anticipated due to lower energy costs. #WTI Crude Oil had plunged from well over 120 in early June to about 95 in late July, They dropped below 90 in early August and are likely to average 92-95 for August so PPI will likely drop again for this month. But in the bigger picture, I believe the supply-demand balance will keep Light Oil in the 80-90 range for a few months where the netbacks are still significant.
The SEC will address the need for greater risk disclosure from fund managers It only took many years and the collapse of the global financial system before the SEC decided to shine the light on hedge fund risk. Yes, 16 years ago, a Wall Street Journal front-page article featured a debate between myself and a hedge fund manager and Fortune magazine editor about regulatory concerns or the lack of regarding hedge funds. The article began: “Far be it for a Canadian to tell Americans how to run their financial system BUT…” and I went on to point out the risk… Read more »
BREAKING: Jury Convicts Spoofing JPMorgan Traders
From Law360
When we criticized Bullion Bank traders, we were called conspiracy theorists.
They don’t do that anymore.
LOCK THEM ALL UP
Online Rick Rule symposium
This is an August 12 online presentation of the in-person show that took place July 26-29.
Book for $100 by midnight and save $50. It’ll be worth it.
Or you can read my write-up.
Gold Mining Stocks are Bargain Priced says Frank Holmes
I often refer to articles written by Frank Holmes because he’s very good at his job and he also speaks and writes well.
Today he published this article.
Four years ago, he did something along similar”Ripe the Picking” lines that turned out as he had hoped, and I think this one will as well.
https://www.mining.com/web/unloved-gold-juniors-ripe-picking/
InPlay Oil Corp (IPOOF)(IPO.to) stock is strong again
Leading up to what is anticipated to be a solid earnings report on Friday, the share price of InPlay has strengthened a lot.
Like most of the Canadian Oilers, investors are watching InPlay.
The volume is not particularly high, and there is no rolling price action at elevated volumes, so I don’t see evidence of selling ahead of the news.
The US Dollar Index is fighting to hold the line at 105
Interesting battle underway with the USD.
And the Gold futures are back from 1824 around 8:30 am to 1804. Gold investors are trying to hold the 1800 level.
The phoniness of unemployment data US unemployment at 3.5% is said to be the lowest in 50 years. Canada is supposedly at the lowest rate since 1976. When economists cannot agree on what represents recession and inflation, then how can they agree on a definition of unemployment? I believe that counter to what governments are saying about unemployment, I believe that the employment situation is dire. University grads are having to take two or three jobs to make ends meet. Highly trained people are having to flip hamburgers and drive for Uber, etc. I don’t… Read more »
This Visual Capitalist story paints a different picture than the Biden government.