The SEC must put a stop to insider trading by politicians.
The people elect politicians to serve the people, not themselves. Elected officials are, in fact, fiduciaries.
WallStreetApes (@Wall Street Apes) posted: WOW Congressman Michael McCaul Who Wrote The TikTok Ban Bill Invested $1.15 Million Into META After Writing The Bill
Agnico Eagle (AEM) is proving to be in a leading position among goldminers.
Stifel research daily notes:
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM-TSX, C$88.72, Buy; Target C$104.00) – Q1 results beat expectations; solid start to the year. – Ingrid Rico – Impact: Positive — AEM quarterly results beat expectations on solid operational performance. Quarterly production at 879koz came well ahead of consensus (859koz) and our expectations (835koz), which positions AEM well to achieve FY expectations. A good start to the year that stands out from the sector’s typical “soft Q1”. Quarterly cash cost and AISC compared well relative to FY guidance. We note that Q1 AISC at $1,190/oz also stands out from peers positively. Strong cash flow generation in Q1 will also look to boost in Q2 as margins increase (AEM’s realized gold price in Q1 was $2,062/oz, with Q2 gold price averaging over $2,300/oz). Overall, AEM keeps showing good operational momentum, continues progressing value driver projects, and is seeing exploration success.
As you know, I hold a large position in Silvercorp. While a recent acquisition target failed, but earned the company a large fee, the Directors have approved a new acquisition that will materially change the company’s asset base and possibly lead to a re-rating of the shares. I have not yet looked closely at the deal, but here is part of the news release:
VANCOUVER, BC and TORONTO, April 26, 2024 /CNW/ – Silvercorp Metals Inc. (“Silvercorp”) (TSX: SVM) (NYSE American: SVM) and Adventus Mining Corporation (“Adventus”) (TSXV: ADZN) (OTCQX: ADVZF) are pleased to announce that the parties have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the “Arrangement Agreement”) pursuant to which Silvercorp has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Adventus (the “Transaction”) by way of a plan of arrangement (the “Arrangement”).
Under the terms of the Arrangement Agreement, each holder of the common shares of Adventus (each, an “Adventus Share”) will receive 0.1015 of one Silvercorp common share (each, a “Silvercorp Share”) in exchange for each Adventus Share (the “Exchange Ratio”) at the effective time of the Transaction. The Exchange Ratio implies consideration of C$0.50 per Adventus Share based on the 20-day volume-weighted average prices (“VWAP”) of Silvercorp Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”) on April 25, 2024. This represents a premium of 31% based on the 20-day VWAP of Silvercorp on the TSX and Adventus on the TSX Venture Exchange (the “TSXV”), both as at April 25, 2024. The implied equity value of the Transaction is approximately C$200 million on a fully diluted in-the-money basis. At closing, existing Silvercorp and Adventus shareholders will own approximately 81.6% and 18.4%, respectively, of Silvercorp shares outstanding on a fully diluted in-the-money basis.
Strategic Rationale for Silvercorp
Provides immediate asset, geographic and metal diversification
Pro forma asset portfolio consists of exposure to China and Ecuador, increased gold exposure, as well as metals (silver, copper, lead, and zinc) that are key for a low-carbon future
Addition of the high-margin, advanced El Domo project should significantly enhance Silvercorp’s near-term production profile
Investment Protection Agreement for the project in place with the Government of Ecuador
Key permits secured, including the Environmental License and tailings storage approval
Existing US$175.5 million stream with Wheaton Precious Metals International Ltd. (“Wheaton”), combined with Silvercorp’s existing cash and cash equivalents of approximately US$200 million, is more than sufficient to fully fund El Domo through construction
Silvercorp has the technical capabilities to bring El Domo into production on an accelerated basis, having built eight mines in its current operations, along with three flotation mills of similar size to El Domo (with a new 1,500 tpd flotation mill under construction at Ying), and three tailings storage facilities
Transaction is accretive on a net asset value per share, as well as on a Mineral Reserves and Mineral Resources basis
Adventus’ PEA stage Condor asset provides further optionality and upside, including:
2021 PEA for Condor North highlighted a 12-year mine life with average annual payable production of 187 thousand oz of gold and 758 thousand oz of silver at a by-product AISC of US$839/oz over the life of the mine
Indicated Mineral Resources containing 2.3 million oz of gold and 12.8 million oz of silver and Inferred Mineral Resources containing 4.3 million oz of gold and 18.1 million oz of silver
Re-rating opportunity resulting from increased scale, significantly enhanced growth profile and establishing a presence in an emerging, mining-friendly jurisdiction
The latest PCE Price Index release confirms what many anticipated – a continued rise in inflation. Monthly data points throughout 2024 have starkly reversed the declining trend observed from mid-2022 through 2023. With this trend likely to continue, next month’s data will reveal even higher inflation levels.
While personal incomes and consumer spending remain stable, the economy definitely has challenges. The shift towards increased part-time employment, replacing full-time positions, has been obvious. However, a deeper concern for me is in the real estate sector, both residential and commercial.
Across numerous American markets, signs of a downturn in the residential real estate market are evident. Current overvaluations, assessed against buyers’ income-based purchasing power, mirror levels seen during the 2006-2007 housing bubble. Moreover, housing inventory is surging, reaching four to six times its 2022 lows in some areas. As house prices decline, the potential for a repeat of the 2007 pattern looms, particularly in markets like Florida.
Contrary to expectations of falling interest rates, recent trends suggest otherwise. Wall Street’s prior certainty about multiple Fed policy rate cuts and subsequent mortgage rate reductions has shifted. Predictions align closely with the view I presented four to six months ago that rate cuts will not occur until the December FOMC meeting. Higher rates for a prolonged period will only intensify pressure on the real estate market, a critical sector representing nearly 20% of the US economy.
Given these economic indicators, the outlook for financial markets in 2025-2026 appears bleak. Investors, who typically assess prospects six months ahead, may find the next six to eight months to be a period of market topping, with equity prices probably reaching their peak this cycle.
GlobalMktObserv (@Global Markets Investor) posted: So now we have:
1) 4 months of hotter inflation 2) Nearly 1.5 million full-time jobs decline with 1.9M part-time jobs created over a year 3) $2 trillion annual deficits 4) The market expecting interest rate HIKES this year
All parabolic moves, well maybe GS has more to go. I am not saying they can’t run more, but when newton comes calling, I don’t want to be around for what we are in store for…
On tonight’s podcast I will be covering which stocks have been holding up the best from the March – April selloffs. If the pullback is over it is smart to have a list of which got defended by Wall st the hardest.
We are overbuilt in the USA about 5 to 1 on the commercial side compared to other countries. No doubt it’s gonna get bad for those holding commercial paper. The Govt is gonna own some really nice office buildings when the chicks come home to roost.
How does one reduce holding when you own 186m shares of $META?
Vanguard holds 186.3 million shares of Meta
Blackrock 157.5 million shares
Fidelity 134 million shares
You all should check your 401k/Roth accounts. Many times what these funds do is create 25 funds with creative names like “Stable growth” “Blue chip leaders” “Performance Tech” or whatever.
Then they add shares of the same top names.
Then the real insidious part. The “Stable Growth” fund simply has three of the other funds stuffed into the one!
This is how the piping operates. And why when you see big big moves they need to reduce exposure by selling us stories of AI and Humanoid robots making us dinner in our homes.
For those that took a leap of faith in late 22, you have been rewarded handsomely. To say that we have come to far too fast is obvious when disecting the monthly. Bulls and bears prosper, PIGS get slaughtered. 500 seems to be the ceiling with rising support in the 300 hundos…Nothing to do with this one, but sell if you were long and let the BOTS fight over it until the next swinger low…Every action has an equal and opposite reaction…this one will be no different….
goldbug58
April 24, 2024 4:04 pm
#39729
Scottie Resources, BC Canada next door to Ascot with 2 mills in the area. They are exploration with no published resources. However, aggressive drilling over the past 3 yrs on what they call the Blueberry Contact zone (BCZ) got me interested.
FNV took a 2% gross production royalty on the project this month; I modeled the BCZ and come up with roughly 770k Au Inferred based on 253 drill holes. They are funded for this year’s program. Large land holding plus the old Scottie mine which operated in the 1990s. Took a position, I guess I like it.
TNX…The next 3 weeks is critical for the 10 year treasury. Find resistance here, and turn back down, or new highs dead ahead. All eyes are watching….So far moving lock step with action reaction.. Lets see what MAY will bring here…
On tonights podcast I am covering how to use Breadth intraday. A premium member asked if I could review.
Wall St leaves big foot prints and their advantage of size is also a disadvantage!
“It’s great to get these insights. You’re teaching us to fish!” – G.D
If you want in on this lesson, I would recommend you upgrade as this is premium content.
Preface – This is NOT a stock picking service! This is not a ‘I turned $500 to $10M’ BS subscription. It will require your brain, hard work, and unlearning what you know. But afterwards you will see the stock market in an entirely new way!
A day doesn’t make a trend. However, it must be monitored in light of the broad market pullback.
If China’s huge purchases continue, and there is no reason to think they won’t, the Gold Bull will also continue IMO — after some normal profit-taking.
China’s net gold imports for Q1 looks 500+ tons. Doubt they would keep that up all year, but if they did, we’re talking 2000 tons. For comparison, the US is “supposed” to have 8000 tons in reserve. US has not had an official audit in a long time, like way back in the 1950s.
Inflation is hurting US consumers.
From X (Twitter):
Nvidia I $NVDA Set to be Featured Sunday on 60 Minutes
The sell side with foot on gas
m.youtube.com/watch?v=vE8Rw0Dy06o
Regulators Seize Troubled Philadelphia Bank, Republic First
Regional bank Fulton Financial buys substantially all of the failed bank.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/regulators-set-to-seize- troubled-philadelphia-bank-republic-first-f138401c
The SEC must put a stop to insider trading by politicians.
The people elect politicians to serve the people, not themselves. Elected officials are, in fact, fiduciaries.
https://x.com/wallstreetapes/status/1783604715064029233?s=51&t=wbu6KdG0NVYrOJCOTt2-Cw
This seems beyond insider trading.
Meaning did anyone at wall st know prior. Did anyone at Meta know prior? Was he directed? I am just using my imagination
Agnico Eagle (AEM) is proving to be in a leading position among goldminers.
Stifel research daily notes:
Silvercorp (SVM) makes a sizeable acquisition.
As you know, I hold a large position in Silvercorp. While a recent acquisition target failed, but earned the company a large fee, the Directors have approved a new acquisition that will materially change the company’s asset base and possibly lead to a re-rating of the shares. I have not yet looked closely at the deal, but here is part of the news release:
VANCOUVER, BC and TORONTO, April 26, 2024 /CNW/ – Silvercorp Metals Inc. (“Silvercorp”) (TSX: SVM) (NYSE American: SVM) and Adventus Mining Corporation (“Adventus”) (TSXV: ADZN) (OTCQX: ADVZF) are pleased to announce that the parties have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the “Arrangement Agreement”) pursuant to which Silvercorp has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Adventus (the “Transaction”) by way of a plan of arrangement (the “Arrangement”).
Under the terms of the Arrangement Agreement, each holder of the common shares of Adventus (each, an “Adventus Share”) will receive 0.1015 of one Silvercorp common share (each, a “Silvercorp Share”) in exchange for each Adventus Share (the “Exchange Ratio”) at the effective time of the Transaction. The Exchange Ratio implies consideration of C$0.50 per Adventus Share based on the 20-day volume-weighted average prices (“VWAP”) of Silvercorp Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”) on April 25, 2024. This represents a premium of 31% based on the 20-day VWAP of Silvercorp on the TSX and Adventus on the TSX Venture Exchange (the “TSXV”), both as at April 25, 2024. The implied equity value of the Transaction is approximately C$200 million on a fully diluted in-the-money basis. At closing, existing Silvercorp and Adventus shareholders will own approximately 81.6% and 18.4%, respectively, of Silvercorp shares outstanding on a fully diluted in-the-money basis.
Strategic Rationale for Silvercorp
Gold appears to be breaking out.
That $10/oz I was looking for yesterday is here. The Gold Bull is intact.
Inflation Warning: The Red Flags are Waving.
The latest PCE Price Index release confirms what many anticipated – a continued rise in inflation. Monthly data points throughout 2024 have starkly reversed the declining trend observed from mid-2022 through 2023. With this trend likely to continue, next month’s data will reveal even higher inflation levels.
While personal incomes and consumer spending remain stable, the economy definitely has challenges. The shift towards increased part-time employment, replacing full-time positions, has been obvious. However, a deeper concern for me is in the real estate sector, both residential and commercial.
Across numerous American markets, signs of a downturn in the residential real estate market are evident. Current overvaluations, assessed against buyers’ income-based purchasing power, mirror levels seen during the 2006-2007 housing bubble. Moreover, housing inventory is surging, reaching four to six times its 2022 lows in some areas. As house prices decline, the potential for a repeat of the 2007 pattern looms, particularly in markets like Florida.
Contrary to expectations of falling interest rates, recent trends suggest otherwise. Wall Street’s prior certainty about multiple Fed policy rate cuts and subsequent mortgage rate reductions has shifted. Predictions align closely with the view I presented four to six months ago that rate cuts will not occur until the December FOMC meeting. Higher rates for a prolonged period will only intensify pressure on the real estate market, a critical sector representing nearly 20% of the US economy.
Given these economic indicators, the outlook for financial markets in 2025-2026 appears bleak. Investors, who typically assess prospects six months ahead, may find the next six to eight months to be a period of market topping, with equity prices probably reaching their peak this cycle.
KobeissiLetter (@The Kobeissi Letter) posted: You can’t make this up:
Prediction markets now show a 36% chance of ZERO interest rate cuts in 2024, according to @Kalshi.
To put this in perspective, 4 months ago, there was a ~3% chance of no rate cuts in 2024.
The base case has gone from 6 rate cuts to 1 rate cut this year.…
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1783526444682936404?s=51&t=wbu6KdG0NVYrOJCOTt2-Cw
GlobalMktObserv (@Global Markets Investor) posted: So now we have:
1) 4 months of hotter inflation
2) Nearly 1.5 million full-time jobs decline with 1.9M part-time jobs created over a year
3) $2 trillion annual deficits
4) The market expecting interest rate HIKES this year
What could possibly go wrong?
https://x.com/globalmktobserv/status/1783595965259104482?s=51&t=wbu6KdG0NVYrOJCOTt2-Cw
KobeissiLetter (@The Kobeissi Letter) posted: BREAKING: The 10-year note yield rises to 4.73%, its highest level since November 1st, 2023.
This puts the 10-year note yield ~100 basis points above its December 2024 low.
With just 1 interest rate cut now expected in 2024, discussions of more HIKES are back.
If tomorrow’s…
https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1783558940497776828?s=51&t=wbu6KdG0NVYrOJCOTt2-Cw
Googl take the playbook and runs.
Job cuts
Dividend
70b buyback
AngloAmerican plc was up 17% on news of a possible sale of the DeBeers diamond unit, and rumors of a potential buyout by BHP. $NGLOY Yeah, I own some.
Gold needs another $10 boost if it is to quickly rebound from recent profit-taking.
Financials led the Dow 30 this week.
When the Dow 30 is led by American Express (AXP), JP Morgan (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS), investors should remain generally bullish.
All parabolic moves, well maybe GS has more to go. I am not saying they can’t run more, but when newton comes calling, I don’t want to be around for what we are in store for…
META mentioned “AI” 80 times in Q1 24 earnings callShy of 95 needed to cause a rally. $META
https://nyugrad.substack.com/p/meta-mentioned-ai-80-times-in-q1
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nylaREdE15M&feature=youtu.be
40 Leading Stocks and which are holding up best? #187 (April 24)
Show notes: https://nyugrad.substack.com/p/40-leading-stocks-and-which-are-holding
“They’ll eat each other. See I’m not a monster, I’m just ahead of the curve”
-Heath Ledger’s Joker
Premium Episode 23 min
Free preview 6 min
BLS reported +264k jobs in Q3. Now they revise with hard data. -192k, or 456k miss.
On tonight’s podcast I will be covering which stocks have been holding up the best from the March – April selloffs. If the pullback is over it is smart to have a list of which got defended by Wall st the hardest.
Upgrade if you want the list and charts
Testimonials: https://nyugrad.substack.com/p/testimonials
I am also implementing a permanent discount for Bill Cara community of 25%
Some of you have already come over to Paid 😍
#CRE Commercial Re
Huge foreclosure wave hitting commercial real estate. Apartments trading at 30% discounts.
https://youtu.be/QuDEubYPMoM
We are overbuilt in the USA about 5 to 1 on the commercial side compared to other countries. No doubt it’s gonna get bad for those holding commercial paper. The Govt is gonna own some really nice office buildings when the chicks come home to roost.
How does one reduce holding when you own 186m shares of $META?
You all should check your 401k/Roth accounts. Many times what these funds do is create 25 funds with creative names like “Stable growth” “Blue chip leaders” “Performance Tech” or whatever.
Then they add shares of the same top names.
Then the real insidious part. The “Stable Growth” fund simply has three of the other funds stuffed into the one!
This is how the piping operates. And why when you see big big moves they need to reduce exposure by selling us stories of AI and Humanoid robots making us dinner in our homes.
META reports tonight
#AI
“All Stocks are sold” – Bill Cara
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/082216/top-9-shareholders-facebook-fb.asp#
For those that took a leap of faith in late 22, you have been rewarded handsomely. To say that we have come to far too fast is obvious when disecting the monthly. Bulls and bears prosper, PIGS get slaughtered. 500 seems to be the ceiling with rising support in the 300 hundos…Nothing to do with this one, but sell if you were long and let the BOTS fight over it until the next swinger low…Every action has an equal and opposite reaction…this one will be no different….
Scottie Resources, BC Canada next door to Ascot with 2 mills in the area. They are exploration with no published resources. However, aggressive drilling over the past 3 yrs on what they call the Blueberry Contact zone (BCZ) got me interested.
FNV took a 2% gross production royalty on the project this month; I modeled the BCZ and come up with roughly 770k Au Inferred based on 253 drill holes. They are funded for this year’s program. Large land holding plus the old Scottie mine which operated in the 1990s. Took a position, I guess I like it.
TNX…The next 3 weeks is critical for the 10 year treasury. Find resistance here, and turn back down, or new highs dead ahead. All eyes are watching….So far moving lock step with action reaction.. Lets see what MAY will bring here…
On tonights podcast I am covering how to use Breadth intraday. A premium member asked if I could review.
Wall St leaves big foot prints and their advantage of size is also a disadvantage!
“It’s great to get these insights. You’re teaching us to fish!” – G.D
If you want in on this lesson, I would recommend you upgrade as this is premium content.
Preface – This is NOT a stock picking service! This is not a ‘I turned $500 to $10M’ BS subscription. It will require your brain, hard work, and unlearning what you know. But afterwards you will see the stock market in an entirely new way!
https://nyugrad.substack.com/p/wall-street-leaves-big-foot-prints
Profit-taking day by Gold traders.
A day doesn’t make a trend. However, it must be monitored in light of the broad market pullback.
If China’s huge purchases continue, and there is no reason to think they won’t, the Gold Bull will also continue IMO — after some normal profit-taking.
Hourly Data for Gold futures
Daily Data for Gold futures
The backdrop of excessive expectations is usually the reason for pullbacks in any Bull run. I believe that is the case with Gold presently.
My favorite newsletter.
Investors need facts and Lyn Alden gives them.
Lyn is great
China’s net gold imports for Q1 looks 500+ tons. Doubt they would keep that up all year, but if they did, we’re talking 2000 tons. For comparison, the US is “supposed” to have 8000 tons in reserve. US has not had an official audit in a long time, like way back in the 1950s.
Two eye opening real estate boots on the ground in Austin and Houston #Texas #realestate #housing
Looks like smaller new developers running out of time, cash and buyers.
Salting the lots means sprinkling fake “sold” signs to drum up fomo
https://youtu.be/wEKDqOACiEg
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=L9YsN6MP1_w