In our community we students of the market openly discuss our various market insights and thoughtful opinions in support of a wider understanding of price behavior. Join us and share your thoughts!
How Trade Exchange will differ from client trading There is no question that TE will be a different experience for me than how I manage client portfolios. With clients, I scale in and out of positions. I also buy high-quality OTC stocks and Canadian-listed stocks. But TE does not permit that although they did tell me that scaling into and out of positions will be a software change they are planning to make. Obviously, for clients, I have the time and need to get to know them. I have a responsibility to ensure their assets will meet their needs. I… Read more »
Trade Exchange is now working I did have some issues getting a password fix but it now works. I entered 4 Biotechs (I missed a couple as the price lifted after I could not get access to the TE system earlier today). I also entered 8 larger cap GSM and 3 smaller cap GSM. A tough day for clients, but the pull-back in prices for GSM did not discourage me as I like to buy into weakness. Of course, my belief is that the Precious Metals can always be bought on weakness in this Bull phase, which I expect will… Read more »
Massive move into USD has smashed the Precious Metals
One would think by the action this morning that the Precious Metals trade is dead. Happened all of a sudden? I doubt it, but now we will have to see what’s next.
Unfortunately, I bought into weakness after the second wave down, and then there was a third one.
Looks to me like spoofing (bullion bank action) in silver, which we’ve seen recently (big hammer down days in Aug and overnight action at least once in Asia); gold is a bit more resilient; price is back over 1900. Hurts a little, but overall theme remains in place.
Hi Bill, I also bought in to the miners and this is where I struggle. Many times in the past I have decided I am on the wrong side of the trade, sold, and then watched as the direction reversed and I got left standing at the station with a booked loss watching the train take off. I’ve also held on expecting a reversal as a stock keeps dropping. At this point I plan to hang on, but I can see an all out pump up the market and paint a pretty picture until election day at the expense of… Read more »
What I have found to work for me in the miners is wider stops on positions; it lets me stay in the trade except on absolute panic selling in which case I’d want to be stopped out.
What I would like to see is strength in the Euro. Seems to be hanging on a thread right now.
kaimu
September 21, 2020 9:53 am
Aloha! Whatever the VXRT CEO is saying at the EU conferences is working! I bought more at pre-market. Up about 3% in a down market. Nice to see something in the EU that is not as ugly as EU banks caught money laundering. When haven’t they been money laundering? Problem is nothing will change until there is some jail time.
ditto…nibbled some more and also sold the $8 puts for this friday for $.50……do not want to get smug but this has certainly turned into a cash cow (so far)
There are too many stories being told by media this morning to count on the fingers of two hands, so it’s best to turn off the TV.
The US Dollar is soaring because money is leaving European banks that are under investigation for massive money laundering. That is the only story I think worth listening to, but like the others, there will be a short news cycle.
And a Congressional subcommittee is raising cane over Kodak options, which, except for a large gift to a bonafide charity ( not children , as with Moderna) from the CEO, not one sell from any that were granted the options… How many Congress members own Moderna in a 401, etc ? …. I’m betting more than a few.
Last edited 22 hours ago by baz22
baz22
September 20, 2020 2:03 pm
It just hit me…Vaxart is the N -95 ( or N-100 ) of vaccines … ” Front line defense ” is the exact description the CEO gave … How about that…. ” Mucosal protection – the nose and throat “…. the accepted medical opinion is the virus enters through either the throat or, most likely, the nasal passages…. Eyes ?…maybe, but the membranes there would channel to the throat… VXRT, you are my hero…. 😊
Peru orders 9.9 million Covid 19 vaccine doses from Pfizer/BioNTech… .
JimG
September 19, 2020 2:11 pm
SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates associated with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels
“Studied blood samples from Quest Diagnostics of more than 190,000 Americans from all 50 states and found that those who had deficient levels of vitamin D had 54% higher COVID positivity compared to those with adequate levels of vitamin D in the blood.”
“The risk of getting coronavirus continued to decline as vitamin D levels increased…”
Eldorado Gold (EGO). This mid-tier miner disappointed me in the gold bear market that ended in Dec 2015, after gold had peaked at $1900+ in 2011. They sold some producing mines in China with good ore grades and went into Greece (Skouries) where permitting issues have dragged on for some 5-7 years now. The flagship Kisladag mine in Turkey, is open-pit heap leaching at 1.0 g /ton (the next payload grade is basically, dirt). As a result, the proclaimed “million-ounce producer” dropped to about 256,000 ounces a short time after that. They seem to produce a lot more silver than… Read more »
Pierre
September 18, 2020 11:39 pm
AGI is down but MMX and OR have done well over this week.
baz22
September 18, 2020 5:07 pm
Did Vaxart register that vaccine patent in Europe ? … what if this becomes NVAX redux ? Look how long Novavax meandered in the sub- $ 5.00 wilderness … Oh how $ 400 million would help these people … 🏜
Hi ray… yes I remember when you bought … probably the most important thing I have ever learned since beginning ‘ Biotech ‘ trades in the late 1990’s, ( and still see $$$ floating in front of my eyes ! ) is buying when the crowd is ignoring… this is the hardest part of Buying, because I don’t ever want to buy in a confirmed downtrend, even a low prices… usually it takes those small Biotech’s many months to flatten out… and they have to have something Really special….. out of the test tube ( invitro ) and At Least… Read more »
re VXRT…..a fantastic option play for the monthly option expiration (4 weeks/oct 16th) is selling a like amount of the vxrt 7 1/2 puts and the 12 1/2 calls…(you already have a stock position)….the premiums are so high you can easily get $2.5 for the spread….losing it would be profitable or buying more at net $5 should be good also…..I have something very similar in my acount at the present time
goldbug58
September 18, 2020 4:30 pm
Kinross Gold (KGC) enjoyed a nice up day, extra nice for me as I have 20 contracts (calls) for Jan 2022 at the 7 strike. Ordinarily I’d sell here for a profit since they’ve almost doubled. Yet, I think KGC, which just declared a div for first time since 2013, is signaling that it expects to keep making money going forward. Another stimulus bill is on the table in Washington–the only question left is how much will be spent this time around. I’m a big believer in gold and silver here, both physical and the miners. Hope you all had… Read more »
goldbug, I must admit that I had one sell of my 19 trades today. That was KGC because of its strength on the day, which as you know is when I sell if I sell. But all I was doing was selling 1000 shares to lower that individual’s portfolio weighting from 11.77% to a more reasonable 9.60%.
In the same vein, all my purchases today were to try to balance portfolio weightings, which I did into weakness.
I think by the end of next week, I will be in good shape for a fall bull run in the GSM stocks.
Today I made 13 trades, all of which were BM&PM buys, as I am now set for next week when I think the big spending bill gets done in DC
bigpicture
September 18, 2020 12:51 pm
Hey folks. To baz22 or anyone else. I haven’t seen any mention of PPD, forgive me if I missed seeing any. Here’s what they do — “PPD, Inc. provides drug development services to the biopharmaceutical industry worldwide. The company operates through Clinical Development Services and Laboratory Services segments. It offers clinical development services, including product development and consulting, early development, Phases II-IV clinical trial management, accelerated enrollment, peri- and post-approval, and medical communications services. The company also provides laboratory services comprising bioanalytical, biomarker, vaccine science, good manufacturing practice, and central laboratory services. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, medical device, and government… Read more »
Hi Bill. Yes it does. FWIW, 2 indicators I like are 1) relative strength vs. SP500, and 2) RSI14. On both I plot an m.a., and if the m.a. stays above neutral, all is well. I found it amazing how the RSI m.a. shows the trend is intact despite 1 or 2 day drops in the stock, allowing me to avoid reacting to whipsaws. As with most good indicators, works well on longer time frames also.
Oops, need to clarify. The relative strength vs. Sp 500, the line just needs to stay above the m.a. For Wilder’s RSI 14, THAT m.a. needs to stay above neutral.
Hi Big… I actually bought 300 starter shares 1 week after the IPO , but sold when the virus invaded the US … I made a decision to buy back SDGR in April… I was allocating most capital into vaccine/protective stocks then, and didn’t want an overlap on two pharma manufacturing companies… both are excellent, but went with the most hyped at that time, SDGR… Hope you are well…
I appreciate the reply. As we both know, this sector (esp. on a short to intermediate term) isn’t for sissies. One great lesson I learned about 2 yrs. ago, I bought 2 bios on the same day. Literally, within a week, one doubled while the other lost 90%! Never a dull moment.
kaimu
September 18, 2020 12:46 pm
Aloha! One of my best more resilient energy plays has been Genie Energy(GNE). It pays a dividend at near 4% and it has been resilient due to its diversity, being part fossil fuel and part new energy even with some retail/residential utility thrown in.
The one thing nobody even counts is this company’s large oil and gas land holding in the Golan Heights. I could see a deal happen if Trumps MidEast Peace Plan, the Abraham Accord, pays off.
baz22
September 18, 2020 12:44 pm
Went shopping… IOVA and DCPH. … both well advanced into cancer, with good platforms.. I personally believe Deciphera ( working on stomach tumors, called GIST – phase 3…. FDA decision in December ) .. is further along than Blueprint ( BPMC )..
I did restart SLDB early this week… yes, its hyper risk .. but the founder has a son with the dreaded disease, DMD.. the dedication is throughout the entire company… They have been struggling with finding the proper ‘ viral vector ‘ delivery system… for the proper LNP delivery vehicle…. the good thing is discoveries are almost weekly in LNP work in the world of Biotech … I think they do find what will work for their molecule.. * one Very important fact – Solid Bioscience is working to address All forms of DMD .. All variants of the disease..… Read more »
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Pax Romana
smartsheet small position. docusign, dynatrace, pagerduty advancing:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SMAR,DOCU,DT,PD|B|0
https://www.earningswhispers.com/epsdetails/smar
nat gas off ~11%: https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas
eqt + range resources have recently turned up. montage flat* atm
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?eqt,%20rrc,%20mr
*https://www.marketwatch.com/story/southwestern-energys-stock-drops-after-montage-resources-buyout-deal-55-million-share-offering-2020-08-12?siteid=yhoof2
semi’s off the lows, advanced micro advancing +3%
semi’s: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=smh
amd: https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AMD&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
How Trade Exchange will differ from client trading There is no question that TE will be a different experience for me than how I manage client portfolios. With clients, I scale in and out of positions. I also buy high-quality OTC stocks and Canadian-listed stocks. But TE does not permit that although they did tell me that scaling into and out of positions will be a software change they are planning to make. Obviously, for clients, I have the time and need to get to know them. I have a responsibility to ensure their assets will meet their needs. I… Read more »
Trade Exchange is now working I did have some issues getting a password fix but it now works. I entered 4 Biotechs (I missed a couple as the price lifted after I could not get access to the TE system earlier today). I also entered 8 larger cap GSM and 3 smaller cap GSM. A tough day for clients, but the pull-back in prices for GSM did not discourage me as I like to buy into weakness. Of course, my belief is that the Precious Metals can always be bought on weakness in this Bull phase, which I expect will… Read more »
Massive move into USD has smashed the Precious Metals
One would think by the action this morning that the Precious Metals trade is dead. Happened all of a sudden? I doubt it, but now we will have to see what’s next.
Unfortunately, I bought into weakness after the second wave down, and then there was a third one.
Looks to me like spoofing (bullion bank action) in silver, which we’ve seen recently (big hammer down days in Aug and overnight action at least once in Asia); gold is a bit more resilient; price is back over 1900. Hurts a little, but overall theme remains in place.
Hi Bill, I also bought in to the miners and this is where I struggle. Many times in the past I have decided I am on the wrong side of the trade, sold, and then watched as the direction reversed and I got left standing at the station with a booked loss watching the train take off. I’ve also held on expecting a reversal as a stock keeps dropping. At this point I plan to hang on, but I can see an all out pump up the market and paint a pretty picture until election day at the expense of… Read more »
What I have found to work for me in the miners is wider stops on positions; it lets me stay in the trade except on absolute panic selling in which case I’d want to be stopped out.
What I would like to see is strength in the Euro. Seems to be hanging on a thread right now.
Aloha! Whatever the VXRT CEO is saying at the EU conferences is working! I bought more at pre-market. Up about 3% in a down market. Nice to see something in the EU that is not as ugly as EU banks caught money laundering. When haven’t they been money laundering? Problem is nothing will change until there is some jail time.
ditto…nibbled some more and also sold the $8 puts for this friday for $.50……do not want to get smug but this has certainly turned into a cash cow (so far)
🐄….eat mo’ chikin…
funny………made me grin on a somewhat unsettling day although the bios and kaimus kodak are holding well…………….
Flood of narratives have led to selling
There are too many stories being told by media this morning to count on the fingers of two hands, so it’s best to turn off the TV.
The US Dollar is soaring because money is leaving European banks that are under investigation for massive money laundering. That is the only story I think worth listening to, but like the others, there will be a short news cycle.
China’s Prime Loan Rates remain unchanged
https://leaderpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/china-keeps-lending-benchmark-lpr-steady-for-5th-straight-month
MRNA insider selling is continuing! Underwater in this one.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/09/04/why-are-moderna-insiders-selling-so-many-shares/#3a78fb2e5dc0
And a Congressional subcommittee is raising cane over Kodak options, which, except for a large gift to a bonafide charity ( not children , as with Moderna) from the CEO, not one sell from any that were granted the options… How many Congress members own Moderna in a 401, etc ? …. I’m betting more than a few.
It just hit me…Vaxart is the N -95 ( or N-100 ) of vaccines … ” Front line defense ” is the exact description the CEO gave … How about that…. ” Mucosal protection – the nose and throat “…. the accepted medical opinion is the virus enters through either the throat or, most likely, the nasal passages…. Eyes ?…maybe, but the membranes there would channel to the throat… VXRT, you are my hero…. 😊
The global economy presented in chart form
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-88-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/
Peru orders 9.9 million Covid 19 vaccine doses from Pfizer/BioNTech… .
SARS-CoV-2 positivity rates associated with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels
“Studied blood samples from Quest Diagnostics of more than 190,000 Americans from all 50 states and found that those who had deficient levels of vitamin D had 54% higher COVID positivity compared to those with adequate levels of vitamin D in the blood.”
“The risk of getting coronavirus continued to decline as vitamin D levels increased…”
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0239252
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitamin_D
Eldorado Gold (EGO). This mid-tier miner disappointed me in the gold bear market that ended in Dec 2015, after gold had peaked at $1900+ in 2011. They sold some producing mines in China with good ore grades and went into Greece (Skouries) where permitting issues have dragged on for some 5-7 years now. The flagship Kisladag mine in Turkey, is open-pit heap leaching at 1.0 g /ton (the next payload grade is basically, dirt). As a result, the proclaimed “million-ounce producer” dropped to about 256,000 ounces a short time after that. They seem to produce a lot more silver than… Read more »
AGI is down but MMX and OR have done well over this week.
Did Vaxart register that vaccine patent in Europe ? … what if this becomes NVAX redux ? Look how long Novavax meandered in the sub- $ 5.00 wilderness … Oh how $ 400 million would help these people … 🏜
I am very underwater with my VXRT position but still holding. My avg cost is in the low 12s. Will be patient with this one.
Hi ray… yes I remember when you bought … probably the most important thing I have ever learned since beginning ‘ Biotech ‘ trades in the late 1990’s, ( and still see $$$ floating in front of my eyes ! ) is buying when the crowd is ignoring… this is the hardest part of Buying, because I don’t ever want to buy in a confirmed downtrend, even a low prices… usually it takes those small Biotech’s many months to flatten out… and they have to have something Really special….. out of the test tube ( invitro ) and At Least… Read more »
re VXRT…..a fantastic option play for the monthly option expiration (4 weeks/oct 16th) is selling a like amount of the vxrt 7 1/2 puts and the 12 1/2 calls…(you already have a stock position)….the premiums are so high you can easily get $2.5 for the spread….losing it would be profitable or buying more at net $5 should be good also…..I have something very similar in my acount at the present time
Kinross Gold (KGC) enjoyed a nice up day, extra nice for me as I have 20 contracts (calls) for Jan 2022 at the 7 strike. Ordinarily I’d sell here for a profit since they’ve almost doubled. Yet, I think KGC, which just declared a div for first time since 2013, is signaling that it expects to keep making money going forward. Another stimulus bill is on the table in Washington–the only question left is how much will be spent this time around. I’m a big believer in gold and silver here, both physical and the miners. Hope you all had… Read more »
goldbug, I must admit that I had one sell of my 19 trades today. That was KGC because of its strength on the day, which as you know is when I sell if I sell. But all I was doing was selling 1000 shares to lower that individual’s portfolio weighting from 11.77% to a more reasonable 9.60%.
In the same vein, all my purchases today were to try to balance portfolio weightings, which I did into weakness.
I think by the end of next week, I will be in good shape for a fall bull run in the GSM stocks.
Always a good idea to re-balance the portfolio (I’m glad that you like KGC).
About the blog participation
Henry Ford said:
We seem to be working well together. Thanks everybody
Iovance is going to follow Immunomedics..
Preparing for next week
Today I made 13 trades, all of which were BM&PM buys, as I am now set for next week when I think the big spending bill gets done in DC
Hey folks. To baz22 or anyone else. I haven’t seen any mention of PPD, forgive me if I missed seeing any. Here’s what they do — “PPD, Inc. provides drug development services to the biopharmaceutical industry worldwide. The company operates through Clinical Development Services and Laboratory Services segments. It offers clinical development services, including product development and consulting, early development, Phases II-IV clinical trial management, accelerated enrollment, peri- and post-approval, and medical communications services. The company also provides laboratory services comprising bioanalytical, biomarker, vaccine science, good manufacturing practice, and central laboratory services. It serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, medical device, and government… Read more »
Big, I don’t know the company, but the chart looks good
Hi Bill. Yes it does. FWIW, 2 indicators I like are 1) relative strength vs. SP500, and 2) RSI14. On both I plot an m.a., and if the m.a. stays above neutral, all is well. I found it amazing how the RSI m.a. shows the trend is intact despite 1 or 2 day drops in the stock, allowing me to avoid reacting to whipsaws. As with most good indicators, works well on longer time frames also.
Oops, need to clarify. The relative strength vs. Sp 500, the line just needs to stay above the m.a. For Wilder’s RSI 14, THAT m.a. needs to stay above neutral.
Hi Big… I actually bought 300 starter shares 1 week after the IPO , but sold when the virus invaded the US … I made a decision to buy back SDGR in April… I was allocating most capital into vaccine/protective stocks then, and didn’t want an overlap on two pharma manufacturing companies… both are excellent, but went with the most hyped at that time, SDGR… Hope you are well…
I appreciate the reply. As we both know, this sector (esp. on a short to intermediate term) isn’t for sissies. One great lesson I learned about 2 yrs. ago, I bought 2 bios on the same day. Literally, within a week, one doubled while the other lost 90%! Never a dull moment.
Aloha! One of my best more resilient energy plays has been Genie Energy(GNE). It pays a dividend at near 4% and it has been resilient due to its diversity, being part fossil fuel and part new energy even with some retail/residential utility thrown in.
The one thing nobody even counts is this company’s large oil and gas land holding in the Golan Heights. I could see a deal happen if Trumps MidEast Peace Plan, the Abraham Accord, pays off.
Went shopping… IOVA and DCPH. … both well advanced into cancer, with good platforms.. I personally believe Deciphera ( working on stomach tumors, called GIST – phase 3…. FDA decision in December ) .. is further along than Blueprint ( BPMC )..
I did restart SLDB early this week… yes, its hyper risk .. but the founder has a son with the dreaded disease, DMD.. the dedication is throughout the entire company… They have been struggling with finding the proper ‘ viral vector ‘ delivery system… for the proper LNP delivery vehicle…. the good thing is discoveries are almost weekly in LNP work in the world of Biotech … I think they do find what will work for their molecule.. * one Very important fact – Solid Bioscience is working to address All forms of DMD .. All variants of the disease..… Read more »