Community Discussion
In our community we students of the market openly discuss our various market insights and thoughtful opinions in support of a wider understanding of price behavior. Join us and share your thoughts!
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Recent Posts
- The Vision Behind a New Billcara.com Website. May 25, 2023
- Resumption of interest in Copperminers and Dr. Copper. May 19, 2023
- My Jim O’Shaughnessy mantra May 11, 2023
- Managing Cash or Near-Cash May 10, 2023
- Introducing the Trader Wizard’s Investment Club (TWIC) May 9, 2023
- The Hindenburg attacks on Icahn and Adani Group are signals the top is near. May 3, 2023
- Interesting question: What is Stakeholder Capitalism? April 26, 2023
Had to exit Imgn… results not strong enough for me…also left Sarepta early a.m. on FDA decision.. decent profit
But, will be back in SRPT when more clinical information is leaked before November…
Fascinating…. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2023/01/13/for-blood-and-money-book-excerpt-wayne-rothbaum-pharmacyclics-robert-duggan/?sh=36f153544f97
The same Wayne Rothbaum bought 10 million shares of IOVA on December 22, 2022, at $ 6.50 a share… $ 65 million.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568058-iovance-robust-fundamental-improvements
* The BLA was approved Friday afternoon…
SVM, Here is how I have been playing SVM…This is a good little area to watch for a bounce…I am still waiting to see if the BOTS want to try and fill the GAP here…I am willing to play this just purely on the moves and if we are right we will see higher lows and higher highs moving forward….Blue line is my longer term monthly trendy line…
A tough week for my TWIC-8 portfolio.
DIS (-3.4%), KO (-4.1%), and NKE (-6.3%) took big losses, showing that investors are concerned about consumer spending. 🙁
Maybe if Ron DeSantis’ polling numbers drop, DIS will pick up a bit. 😀
Investors loved the future, which is what the stories are all about. LOL
GlobalX ETFs for Future Analytics (AIQ +3.7%), Cloud Computing (CLOU +3.3%), and Robotics and Artificial Intelligence (BOTZ +3.1%) had strong weeks.
Tesla (TSLA) is now $197.30, up +7% on the day.
I hope that my negatives didn’t convince Baz to sell.
Musk’s departing Twitter to focus on Tesla in a statement he made on May 16 has made quite an impression on investors. The stock took off like his SpaceX on huge volume. It also helps to have Gov. Ron DeSantis signing legislation to help his SpaceX and having Musk introduce the DeSantis presidential nominee campaign.
How many stocks do we own that are up +23% in the past month? I guess NVDA and AMD are two.
Nawww..!… Can always get back in….. Two thumbs up for IOVA after hours…👍👍😁
TSLA closed at $193.62, up +5.0% today.
The development outlook for the Carangas project of New Pacific Metals (NEWP)(NUAG.to). This video interview of Dr. Peter Megaw and CEO Andrew Williams covers Carangas, the #2 project of New Pacific, in detail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANGviFfx6w&t=70s A Mineral Resource Estimate will be filed around July 10-20. Later this year, the Company will file a Preliminary Economic Estimate. Both filings will be interesting to industry analysts and family office investors. I hold a large position in New Pacific Metals because of Carangas. This project will be superior to the flagship Silver Sand project for which a PEA outlines a large and profitable mine… Read more »
The mortgage debt of Canadians is a red flag warning. From The Deep Dive: According to the CMHC’s Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Canada’s residential mortgage debt rose by 6% to $2.08 trillion in January 2023. Although this marked an increase, the growth rate was slower than in prior years due to inflation, surging interest rates, and a cooling housing market, which collectively dented consumer confidence and subsequently sent potential homebuyers to the sidelines.Notwithstanding the moderated mortgage growth, Canadian households are grappling with record mortgage debt levels. CMHC Senior Specialist of Housing Research Tania Bourassa-Ochoa voiced concerns over the ability of… Read more »
Volatis Aerospace (VOL.v) Q1 results and letter from the CEO Glen Lynch. I continue to hold this company’s stock and like the business model and management. Dear Bill,Yesterday, we released our Q1 results showing revenues of $7.4M, a 54% increase over Q1-22, and a 32% gross margin representing a 9% increase over Q1-22. The full press release can be found here. We’ll have an earnings call on Tuesday, May 30th at 9:00 AM EST if you are interested in attending please register here.In addition to the above, Volatus has had a lot of exciting news come out in the past few weeks. We’ve received… Read more »
DXY setup…Here is my take on the Dolla…Run (try too) into the 107-108 area. Then fail…Taking out the prior low…Try too rally again faillll….If not that then this Pig could linger for a couple years up here…IMO…Need to see how the Bots are programmed here…So far selling at the highs has paid off…Long term lower lows and lower highs..
Nq trap been set…Bears been fleeced again and bulls have to now decide to take profit or Hold on for dear Life, You see Both sides lose and the BOTS win…There has been zero pause in the move up from the 12800….Freezing Bears in their tracks, Now bulls are partying again likes its 1999. Looks to be a Bull trap to me, but hey I’ve been long enjoying this ride. With the long holiday weekend, what better time to have a rug pull LOL…Well, MY Longs will be sold today I am moving to neutral and somewhat bearish again…But Like… Read more »
Pre-market shows some strength in the Metals and Precious Metals.
The US Dollar popped at 8:30 am ET with the reports on Durable Goods Orders and Personal Consumption spending on goods and services, excluding food and energy. Neither report is positive, but the Dollar lifted immediately anyway. So it will likely drop later in the day, and the equity market and commodities continue to lift.
What’s wrong with a little blue sky right before the Memorial Day holiday weekend?
https://investing.com/economic-calendar/core-durable-goods-orders-59
https://investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61
Silvercorp (SVM)(SVM.to) earnings met the consensus. Silvercorp Reports Adjusted Net Income of $37.0 Million, $0.21 per Share, and Cash Flow from Operation of $85.6 Million for Fiscal 2023 I am pleased to own this stock and will keep the company in the Cara Natural Resources Core-12. Unfortunately, the Quarter and the Year results have not met my expectations. I will hold my large position but not accumulate more until I see a better quarter. The good news is that the current market value is a fraction of the Company’s intrinsic value. HIGHLIGHTS FOR FISCAL 2023 *Mined 1,068,983 tonnes of ore,… Read more »
Bill, There is a pesky gap I am watching on the daily near 2.45 ish…I know it seems crazy that it could get that low, but BOTS love too fill gaps….So, caution is warranted for sure here…I will scoop up as much as I can if we fill that gap, just FYI..LOL
basketguy, I had to respond to the massive -8.1% sell-off. Late in the day, I bought a lot at US$3.01 and increased my portfolio position weight to about 10.5%. I expect this gap to be filled within a week or two, so I can reduce my weight to around 8%.
Not crazy at all. I loaded up at an average of $2.30 USD back around September. Sold (too early) around $3.21 into the relatively recent rally, and would gladly buy at a price with a mid-2 handle.
While SVM has low cash costs, a nice balance sheet, and a great investment portfolio, I believe their exploration efforts need to produce more tangible results. I want to see a better quarter before I commit to a large investment.
From MarketBeat.com:
All amounts are expressed in US dollars
Integra Resources (ITRG)(ITR.v) are rolling back the stock 1:2.5.
I like this company’s heap leach Gold properties in Idaho and Nevada. But they have their share of skeptics, led by one particular cynic who obviously has had a long-standing personal axe to grind. The only solution is to prove their critics wrong by starting production that yields profits and shareholder returns. I hope they do, but the jury is out. I have not held the stock for quite a while.
The US Dollar Index is a tad weaker, and Equities, Oil, and Gold are a tad stronger this morning. But the daily data charts show the Dollar will have to fall more to get the commodities on a bullish roll. Either that or Russia-Ukraine could be the reason. But the Debt Limit talks are a sideshow. Strictly politics where the agreement will happen in a few days, with the total dollars already agreed to. It’s just that the Dems and GOP want to take home wins as to the various funds’ allocations that will satisfy their respective bases to help… Read more »
Little Vox Royalty graduates to the Toronto big board. Starting Monday, not a holiday in Canada, the stock trades as VOXR.to align the stock with the US ticker. Congrats to CEO Kyle Floyd, who, when I met him in one of the CEM one-on-one meetings, I quickly recognized as having his act together personally and had created a terrific business model for Precious Metals royalty and streaming finance. I have often written about VOXR and Kyle here after selecting this small company for the Cara Natural Resources Core-12. I replaced Wheaton River with VOX Royalty when I made that choice.… Read more »
Like the idea’s you are kicking around for the new design and input of the blog, Bill… I think it was 2008 when I became active here…my gosh, the changes we all have been through, market wise and personal… The bots pretty much run the show, but I still believe smart choices can be found for at least an intermediate ( 1 – 2 years ) time frame… We are so close to major shifts in health care, per gene therapy, that there will be a tidal wave for many, many years, of cure’s and commercialization… A new era of… Read more »
Cara 100 Nvidia (NVDA) was up +24.4% today.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/step-aside-crispr-rna-editing-is-taking-off/
BTG Update…. I WROTE ON April 11, 2023 2:06 pm Here’s the setup in BTG…I have been buying all the pullbacks here…Last load up was 3.25…I am sitting with nice profits, but I am not willing to let go just yet. We will either run fast into the 5.00 area, then have an earnings release, or we will pullback into earnings consolidate and then move higher, either way this is a big winner so far. So far so good on the playbook….My call on April 11th was spot on pullback into the earnings…BOTS want to test the breakout LINE, just like the… Read more »
Sold Iovance…if not in FDA hip pocket, you lose..
A new ‘Help You Invest’ article.
https://www.billcara.com/help-you-invest/the-vision-behind-a-new-billcara-com-website/
Modern investment theory, informed by the last 40 years of relatively benign financial conditions, tells us that a diversified broad-market investment portfolio headlined by ETFs will provide a level of risk mitigation and portfolio returns suitable for the overwhelming majority of society. While such a practice does mitigate idiosyncratic risk, it is exactly these kinds of partial truths that are often more dangerous than an outright lie. Perfunctory, conflicted reporting exemplified by networks like CNBC, reinforce the guideposts that illuminate the way as we are prodded toward the slaughterhouse by central banks, too-big-to-jail banks, and a small cadre of insiders.… Read more »
Well said, deneve83. An ETF is a Wall Street construct designed for machine trading. Unless people learn to invest, they will lose to these Wall Street machines getting bigger and more sophisticated monthly. People must learn to invest. The sell-side recommends ETFs for broader diversification. As a licensed investment advisor, I cannot advise ETFs because you cannot research fundamentals and determine intrinsic value with an ETF. We need to invest in securities the same way we would any asset. For example, we invest in a house, not a subdivision, and a car, not a fleet of vehicles. When we do,… Read more »
Based on one’s risk tolerance, having a more diversified portfolio may be important to reduce risk. But consider this, Warren Buffett warns against over-diversification. His near trillion-dollar portfolio is confined to very few companies, and his staff de-risks the portfolio by understanding each company.
The latest filing of the Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway portfolio shows portfolio weighting of Apple at 38.9%, Chevron Corp at 9.8%, Coca-Cola at 8.5%, and American Express at 7.5%. These four stocks, all of which are Dow 30 components, comprise 64.7% of the $350 billion portfolio. Bank of America is 11.2%, and the other 44 holdings are just 24.1%.
So, if this concentration is good enough for Warren Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger, my TWIC portfolio of eight Dow 30 holdings, including Apple, Chevron, and Coca-Cola, should be good for the novice investors I am mentoring.
SBSW fresh 52-wk low at 7.18
Remember my chart…….
I do, I do have it in mind.
Think like a robot…Trade like a robot….Win like a robot….13600 was the call…Good for a nice easy 300 NQ points…thanks Bots…I’ll take it too the bank…
Remember, Price moves then stories are written…
The US GDP report at 8:30 am ET will be a market mover.
The links here will give the updated May data after 8:30 am.
https://ca.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-375
https://ca.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-price-index-343
Stronger than forecast GDP. Pushed Gold down -$20 with minimal change to US Dollar Index. Seems harsh action was taken against the Gold Bull. Nasdaq futures popped +1.8% with the boost from Nvidia (NVDA) whose shares lifted almost +30% in premarket trading. The Company is guiding a huge increase in revenue next quarter. AI-related chips are now in great demand. Nvidia forecast sales of $11 billion this quarter, up from $6.7 billion in the quarter a year ago. Germany’s GDP fell -0.3% this quarter, which is the second quarter in a row that the economy has contracted, a definition of… Read more »
Germany went into recession Q1 2023 after numbers were revised! Gotta love those revisions! EU in economic failure. The only way to fix that is CBDC and more inclusion and diversity! Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% during the first quarter of 2023, as revised from the initial estimate of no growth. This revised figure indicated a second consecutive quarter of economic decline, plunging Europe’s largest economy into a recession, due to persistent high price increases and a surge in borrowing costs. Household consumption shrank by 1.2% as consumers reduced spending on various categories such as food & beverages, clothing &… Read more »
The US Dollar Bull is roaring today.
This cannot be positive for equities of Precious Metals.
Seems like an attempt to keep the Gold Bull in the pen.