Community Discussion
In our community we students of the market openly discuss our various market insights and thoughtful opinions in support of a wider understanding of price behavior. Join us and share your thoughts!
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Recent Posts
- A reader asks if the Fed is helping Americans or acting in some other capacity. February 3, 2023
- Hindenburg takes down Adani, but I have reason to be doubtful. February 2, 2023
- Understanding Life is the Essence of Investing January 29, 2023
- Why I am so hostile to banks and the Fed. January 16, 2023
- The Fed’s independence is under attack. January 15, 2023
- A list of brilliant articles from Quantpedia.com. January 10, 2023
- My Vision for 2023 January 2, 2023
Interesting increase… https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/january-2023-muvvi/
New Pacific’s (NEWP) new president Andrew Williams’ presentation at Vancouver Resource Investment Conference from a few days ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBOAPc9IDWs
I give him 7/10 on Presentation. Points for enthusiasm but thin on the vision. First week on the job, so I will hold off on assessment until I determine his ability to get things done. He will focus on corporate development, investor relations, and raising money.
Reports of drill results for the metal miners should be time-stamped.
In the interests of full transparency, I urge the SEC to require that all metal miners report the date and time that assay results were reported to the company and when the company reported them to the public.
In approximately 15 months, a Bitcoin ‘ halving ‘ will occur… That is when things start to get tight… Production rewards will be twice as difficult… Big miners are paying off their infrastructure debts now.. They will become the true bankers of Bitcoin…. https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769#:~:text=A%20Bitcoin%20halving%20event%20occurs,supply%2C%20even%20as%20demand%20increases……………… * ” In a social democracy with a fiat currency, all roads lead to inflation “… Jim Grant – Bill Fleckenstein…
There are 6.25 Bitcoin in each block…. there are 210,000 blocks in each halving… my guess is there are currently 18,760,000 BTC in existence right now….https://www.exodus.com/news/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/#:~:text=The%20current%20supply%20of%20Bitcoin,to%20follow%20Bitcoin's%20circulating%20supply.
https://www.makeuseof.com/what-happens-to-bitcoin-after-all-21-million-coins-are-mined/#:~:text=As%20of%202021%2C%20miners%20gain,be%20mined%20until%20around%202140.
https://youtu.be/PnSZjYCy1f4
This is a CNBC interview with Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy… It is, by far, the most intelligent and insightful discussion on the individual and global implications of Bitcoin..
After the Powell speech started the USD weakened and Gold strengthened — for a few minutes.
The prices then reverted, and the market is back to where it had been when Powell’s speech began.
I’ll stick to my hypothesis that there will be one more pump to the USD before it dumps. That will lower the prices of Gold and Silver soon before the return to their long-term Bullish phase.
Watching Gold closely.
After the collapse of the Gold price on Friday, the price has side-tracked. In the 1875-1890 range, the Bulls and Bears seem to be evenly matched. I am surprised a bit that as the USD has lifted this week that the Gold Bulls have not given up, so this is a good time to be focused on what happens next.
I still believe that before the next bullish phase for Gold begins, there will be another flush of the Bulls that are on the fence. After the flush, I will be buying the dip.
LOL, 5 minutes after I published this, the Dollar weakened and Gold strengthened.
Bots at work.
This is why I drew the upper resistance line.
Anyway, this is for day traders. What I watch for are trendline breakouts to tell me when the Bulls or the Bears are gaining ground. Longer-term, I am a buyer of Gold, and so I add to positions on weakness.
I also watch the Bull and Bear ETFs, as these more than fundamentals are telling of computer-directed price direction of the Goldminers.
Gold is definitely lifting now. Up about +$10/oz since I first wrote at 10:30 am ET.
Could be that Wall Street has been tipped that Fed chair Powell is going to be a dove today.
Or it could be a fake before the USD starts to lift again and traps today’s buyers of the Goldminers.
Powell speaks at 12:40 pm ET.
The last time he spoke (Jan. 10), Gold soared. He will be aware of that so this time he is likely to be less dovish and possibly more hawkish. The latter seems appropriate since Friday’s humongous Jobs Report and the expected comments in tonight’s Biden State of the Union address are nothing but blue sky that the Fed can take advantage of.
Powell to speak later this afternoon.
” An insurance policy for everyone against the confiscation of wealth “….. https://news.bitcoin.com/ark-invest-expects-bitcoin-to-become-a-multitrillion-dollar-market-predicts-btc-price-could-reach-1-48-million/
Riot and Marathon will most certainly benefit… approaching carbon neutral and saving 30% on power consumption..https://finance.yahoo.com/news/riot-announces-january-2023-production-140000098.html
The USD and Gold moved higher after the equity market opened this morning.
I don’t know why they moved in sync, and with the recent strength of the USD, I am surprised that Gold is holding up. The 2x Gold Bear ETF (HBD.to) has lifted off as I anticipated.
This is a moment that the Gold Bulls ought to be extra cautious.
Do we really see value in the index funds? I mean really? Call me crazy, but all I see is wild and rampant speculation. Price will always return to the mean…I see no value here…
HEre is the Dow….Same worthless value…
Southwestern Energy (SWN) still in downtrend but getting near to an interesting price level near $5. I will get more interested under 5.
Cathie Wood believes that 1 Bitcoin will go to $1 million !!! Wow. Coinsmart’s promo today states: In her annual public Bitcoin forecast, Cathie Wood, founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of ARK Investment LLC doubled down on her prediction for the cryptocurrency to reach $1 million by the turn of the decade.Wood’s conviction is rooted in the fundamentals. In a recent publication titled: Big Ideas 2023, the report highlights public blockchain as one of the five converging innovation platforms defining the current technological area. The rest four are Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Energy Storage, and Multiomic sequencing.Narrowing down to the plausibility of… Read more »
Really interesting reformation… https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/gme/gamestop-stock-what-you-should-know-bold-turnaround-plan
Satellos Bioscience (TSXV: MSCL) (OTCQB: MSCLF) makes an announcement regarding their preclinical Duchenne studies.
I met the Satellos CEO Frank Gleeson at the CEM.ca conference last Sept 24. I was quite impressed with their work on this lethal genetic disease that kills almost all young people before their 30s.
Sarepta is doing much of the well-known clinical studies, but Satellos is hoping to start their trials in 1Q2024. So far, the work on mice is extremely promising.
baz22, what do you think?
This is an amazing study… First, to be able to use small molecules and second, that it is an oral administration instead of using infusion therapy … I might have missed a constuct on dystrophin production so I will reread more slowly…All in all, this is very exciting…
Outside of Cameco, I can’t name many uranium producers that trade; Kazatomprom but shares not available to the avg investor. A lot of exploration/dev projects, mostly. And the Sprott uranium trust.
The market is ignoring the recent US Dollar strength. The stronger Dollar is not holding back Gold and Silver today. But it will. I anticipate more weakness in the precious metals whereupon I think a Gold Bear trap will fool the short-term traders when they should be buying the dip, not selling. As to the broad market prices, I say the market has it wrong. Corporate earnings are not strong. If you think so, then you are not watching closely. The Q4 earnings when all are reported are likely to be negative in the aggregate. And Q1 earnings are likely… Read more »
Gold is ready to take another tumble.
Silver is also ready to fall.
Stock Market Literacy is critical to working people. Humongous Bank & Broker and the central banks suffered a little during the worst of Covid-19. Then they got bailed out by the taxpayer as they did after they caused a global financial catastrophe in 2008. Today they say they are in fine shape. Meanwhile, to show their respect to the public and their clients, the HB&B special loan officers nicked the assets of hard-working people who had lost their ability to earn the income needed to pay their bills. Nobody bailed out those suffering people, many of whom are… Read more »
UK equity investors have it wrong.
This week the FTSE 100 achieved a fresh all-time high.
Yet, the economy is weak, the financial condition of the Treasury is in deplorable condition, the Bank of England is close to reaching the upper limits of their policy rates before causing a hard-landing recession, and the Prime Minister’s popularity is plunging.
What we are witnessing is a classic British sheeple shearing where the fund managers are pumping and dumping stocks on unsuspecting retail investors.
Books will be written.
10-year chart of the FTSE 100:
The Gold coin has been flipped. About a week ago, I warned of a Gold Bull trap. Soon after the price of Gold plunged by about $75/ounce (almost -4%). The buyers into strength at the top were trapped, and unfortunately many became emotional sellers into weakness at the end of the week. But I will say again that the Gold market is now in a 50-year Bull phase that will result in enormous gains in wealth for those who endure the volatility. Currently, I am warning of a Gold Bear trap. Because they believe that the US Dollar will be… Read more »
I did sell my Enphase ( from $ 207.00 – $ 209.00 ) yesterday when the price projections started coming out.
Back in
Elon Musk wins frivolous “funding secured” trial.
Wealthy people are targets. Look no further than Adani in India.
So much time and money wasted.
The Bullion Banks added a net of about 7000 short Gold futures contracts last week.
Having set up the Gold Bull trap, perhaps they closed some of these today. 😀
Hindenburg-Adani summed up by chartr. Adani Group, a conglomerate with sprawling interests across energy, cement and infrastructure, continues to suffer after facing allegations of fraud published by short-seller Hindenburg last week.Hindenburg claims the Adani family has used offshore entities to artificially inflate Adani’s listed company share prices, enabling them to take on more debt and leaving the group — according to the report — in a highly precarious position.Hindenburg’s targets, which in the past have included convicted fraudulent trucking company Nikola, often see a swift share-price drop and Adani has been no exception. Indeed, the 10 listed Adani firms have now collectively lost more than $100bn in market cap since the allegations, with the flagship company, Adani Enterprises, shedding nearly 60% of… Read more »
On a day like today for gold, hardly matters but Snowline Gold hit 363.5-meters of 1.4 g/t gold from surface. Follows up on their 18 Jan. assay 189.2-m of 1.2 g/t. An additional seven holes to be announced. Do not have a position, and it has gotten a lot of attention but will be interesting a bit lower from here.
Status of the new book. The gestation period of Stock Market Literacy is taking longer than the usual 42 weeks. The book has been uploaded to all the bookselling platforms pending my release for sale. But for business reasons (saving $7.98 royalties on an $18.95 book), I am awaiting Alexei to test the new delivery platform at billcara.com, so I can offer it and promote it here first. A few weeks ago, I selected a different platform, which was tested and then sold successfully for a few hours before I realized that using that platform would cost me $5,200 per… Read more »
The Gold Bulls were trapped as I had warned.
I warned. How many listened?
Now for the rest of the story. We are witnessing a small reactive pullback in a long-term Gold Bull. Into the wave of selling, I am placing low-ball limit buy orders on specific Gold and Silver stocks I plan to hold for the long term. I also understand that volatility is, and will continue to be, extreme. So, when emotions are running high, I bid at very low and offer at very high prices. The use of pivot points is helpful. I am now down to one Uranium miner, one Oiler, three Junior Industrials, and five Gold/Silver/Copper, one of which… Read more »
Shockingly positive January US Jobs Report powers up the Dollar.
I had no idea that the reported jobs would be more than double the Wall Street consensus, but I could not have been more clear in the past several days that the Dollar was well oversold and ready to pop.
There you have it. And that is why I warned of the Gold Bull trap and why I had loaded up on cash this past week.
Economy adds 500,000 jobs while those not part of the survey sample seem to be losing theirs. Sounds a lot like pride before the fall. Fed chair mentioned core non-housing services inflation about five times during his speech. He seems to be zeroed in on this measure as a key indicator. This puzzled me a bit as to why he fixated on this. I had to look it up. source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t02.htm Of those core (non-energy) non-housing services, this equates to about ~24.6% of the economy. Of that percentage, we can then zero in on the higher weight sub-metrics containing a… Read more »
This deneve83 blog is so well done that even as a reader commentary I will re-post it in Help You Invest.
Thank you for adding so much value with your contributions.
Yes, indeed you have been warning of a pending “pop” in the dollar and a drop in gold and miners. I’m glad that I took your advice to heart. Thank you.
Hindenburg takes down Adani, but I have reason to be doubtful. A few days after the Hindenburg short-selling report was published (and copied here minutes later), the seven stocks in the Adani Group dropped $100 billion. The Group’s $2.5 capital raise has been suspended. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/02/adani-losses-top-100-billion-in-wake-of-hindenburg-research-report.html I have read on Reddit a posting that Hindenburg has undisputed wins where the average market value takedown is 80%. Well, I have no market opinion about Adani or even about the Hindenburg-Adani report other than obviously if and when you call one of the world’s wealthiest people a fraud, with the expectation that the… Read more »