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In our community we students of the market openly discuss our various market insights and thoughtful opinions in support of a wider understanding of price behavior. Join us and share your thoughts!
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Recent Posts
- Using Analyst Upgrades and Price Target Increases to Seek Future Winners November 26, 2022
- Are $6.4 Billion in SEC penalties this year enough? November 17, 2022
- Promo for ‘Stock Market Literacy’ needs streamlining November 17, 2022
- A leading government paints a picture of classic stagflation November 17, 2022
- SEC enforcement chief applauds their billions in fines, but to what end? November 15, 2022
- Coming in December, “Stock Market Literacy” November 15, 2022
- The Bank of Canada report, as I would like to see it October 26, 2022
Started a position in Sgen… Talks with Merck fell apart after the CEO resigned following arrest for domestic violence… An excellent new CEO has taken the reigns… The last discussions revolved around $ 40 billion…
Crypto In the News From Valour.com (https://valour.com/) This company has excellent monthly coverage of the crypto market, which includes a State of the Market and Market Overview in addition to the News of the month, which this month is as follows: .Policy OKX has registered as a Digital Asset Business in the Bahamas, expanding the exchange’s growing presence across geographies. Crypto exchange, Huobi Global, announced its plans to relocate to the Caribbean, with the Asian exchange currently based out of the Seychelles. Japan’s digital ministry has outlined plans to create a DAO to explore the opportunities presented by Web3 technology.… Read more »
Fed Funds vs $SPX. What I am noticing is it has been in sync for the most part in the past. Counter intuitive right? Rates rise, stocks rise. but in this recent Powell “I am going to be Volcker” rise, the $SPX is actually weakening making lower highs. If the Fed pivots, this divergence may cause the next crisis hinting how bad the economy is about to get. I can be wrong!
One additional thought or question, can’t we also get hyperinflation even if rates rise, since they will need to print money to service this debt? which is also counter intuitive.
Tiny pvct released awesome results
Love the description of Gold in third paragraph..https://dailyhodl.com/2022/12/04/hedge-fund-veteran-mark-yusko-predicts-bitcoin-will-replace-gold-unveils-massive-btc-price-target/…… Gold IS money.
It’s Sunday evening, the US Dollar is soft, and Gold and Oil are a bit stronger.
The Dollar is now at 104.17, and Gold at 1806, up +9
Let’s see how this plays out in the morning, say by 11 am ET.
Since March, “higher high” about $1810, “higher low” $1760 in the downtrend channel as of last week. Gold trading $1786 as I write this on Mon close to noon. If it can hold above 1760 we should see it trend back over 1800. Needed a breather anyway, silver also.
This is real. Regulatory Capture.
https://twitter.com/RepMaxineWaters/status/1598693811252875264
Not sure what’s really going on in this silver rally. Someone covering a healthy short position or bear market rally? Seems real, but also seems too real. Why would sentiment change so quickly (in like 30 days) after many months of absolute pessimism? People may be getting too comfortable with it, adding longs. I keep taking money off the table here.
The earlier knee-jerk reaction to the US Jobs Report now seems to be reversing.
The US Dollar is losing ground and Gold and Silver are gaining in a bit of a reversal to the 8:30 am Fear of the Fed action.
Here is the Silver chart:
30-min later, the recovery continues.
The earlier shake-out failed to suppress the growing interest in Gold and Silver
NYUGRAD pointed out the egregious promotion of Sam Bankman-Fried The buffering was a problem, but I stuck with it because I was becoming increasingly appalled by CNBC over this matter. https://nyugrad.substack.com/p/the-warren-buffet-of-crypto-sbf Thank you, NYUGRAD. This would be it if there were a primer for students-of-the-market of the importance of not watching Financial Entertainment TV. It’s time for the SEC to investigate and intervene regarding these CNBC promotions. This nonsense has gone on for years. But Mr. Gensler seems to love his 15 minutes of fame regularly accorded by the producers of CNBC. So, I do not anticipate any action by… Read more »
Thank you for the share! Apologies if there was buffering issue. Strange as it is hosted on substack. Maybe because I had just uploaded this morning and the video was still processng. Quite amazing, all of it. You taught me that ‘all stocks are sold’ to us and this is no different. Prob the apex of how the wall st selling machine is like the Terminator.
Vision Marine (VMAR) has a deal with Four Winns.
Boaters ought to be impressed.
Funny story. When Pat and I first took Time & Space down the ICW and passed a boat with the name Four Winns, Pat remarked that that was a terrific family name for their boat. Then we passed another and another, and she was confused. She learned that small boats are not named by the owners but by the manufacturer. I still kid her when we see a Four Winns on the water.
Gold holdings by central banks have hit a 48-year record From the World Gold Council Weekly Report “Central banks continue to accumulate gold according to the latest data available. In October central banks added a further net 31t of gold to international reserves. This initial figure helps lifts global official gold reserves to its highest level since November 1974.”In October, central banks added a further net 31t of gold to global international reserves. Gold purchases were limited to a handful of central banks, with the Central Bank of the UAE the largest buyer during the month, adding just over 9t… Read more »
Fear of the Fed hits the market this morning.
The November US Jobs Report (ignoring adjustments to prior months) looks strong, so Wall Street’s computer models now indicate a higher Fed rate hike later this month.
Took some money off yesterday. Had a 70% gain in i-80 Gold in a month, 22.7% in New Found Gold in a week. Erased a lot of red ink in the PM portfolio, back to 57% cash there. Holdings weight-ordered and YTD performance:
GoGold Resources +3.45%
Skeena +12%
Hochschild -27%
Silvercrest +32%
Westhaven -22%
Cerrado 0%
Grande Portage -4.5%
Congrats on Silvercrest. After meeting the people and hearing the story a few years ago, I was never interested. But good on them.
I, too, gained a lot of cash yesterday.
CoinDesk is the only source of published info on Crypto that I read.
https://www.coindesk.com/
NYUGRAD is offering an investor info service
I wish him well
His contact is [email protected]
Just subscribed and have devoured everything. Great analysis, I look forward to adding this to my daily battle rhythm.
Incorrect info from an info source I really like The 1440 Daily Digest is proper journalism, but sometimes I find myself disbelieving anything I read. This story today about the US GDP growth is misleading. US GDP GrowsThe US economy grew faster than previously estimated during the third quarter of this year, according to new data released yesterday. The country’s gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced (see 101), grew at a 2.9% annualized rate from July to September, up from an earlier estimate of 2.6%. Economists had predicted 2.7%. The latest figure marks a rebound from 0.6% and 1.6% decreases in the first two quarters… Read more »
Gold is trading above 1800
After 8 am ET this morning, Gold traded above where I had ventured a guess it would be by month-end. And the US Dollar is trading below 105.
A good day for tea leaf readers.
Yep Bill. Now look! Will it close above $1800? You called it and I was buying every dip gold and silver had especially in the $1690 gold lows and the $18 silver lows. I was buying gold and silver in 1999 to get out of the Tech Crash. Gold is signaling something and since I consider gold an insurance against failed sovereign debt I am going to guess its about “debt” and bonds with all those derivatives running hedges. The question is whose collateral is on the wrong side of those derivative hedge positions. You could say the same about… Read more »
The US Dollar is falling
If it were still rising, the equity market would be cratering. The Fed has to learn that you cannot squeeze liquidity out of the system too fast in a system that is chock-a-block with debt. As I said, this is not 1980 when the US was in a sound financial condition, and the Fed could kill inflation with 16-20% rates. Do that today, and the Us economy will rival the Great Depression or worse.
One breakdown now, and the Dollar will soon be 99.
This was a long day. But I can sleep knowing that the book will be produced in different digital formats. It’s only money.
But 615 pages will raise the cost of the hardcopy version.
Don’t quite understand today’s moonshot…… Bill called the Powell ‘ 50 basis bump ‘ almost one month ago….. ,😁🏖️
Aside…. interesting offering.. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cassava-sciences-announces-closing-50-173000136.html
30 days ago… right to buy… Senior VP and General Counsel…. https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=90423&ref=117024106&type=HTML&symbol=SAVA&companyName=Cassava+Sciences+Inc.&formType=4&formDescription=Statement+of+changes+in+beneficial+ownership+of+securities&dateFiled=2022-10-31&CK=1069530
RBC set to buy HSBC Canada for C$13.5 billion in Canada’s biggest-ever banking deal Here the white-shoes bankers at RBC are seeking to operate the Canadian division of the world’s great Chinese bank. From a cultural perspective, this ought to be an interesting marriage. Culture-conflict destroyed Northern Telecom (Nortel) after that hardware manufacturer purchased a multi-billion-dollar software company. At its peak 30 years ago, Nortel traded at a $380 billion market cap, making it the most valuable company in Canada. Nortel had grown to almost 35 percent of the value of the entire TSE 300 Composite Index group of companies.… Read more »
NYUGRAD sends his take on the Powell speech Hello and Happy holidays! Forgive my absence as I have been traveling and tending to family matters. I wanted to write this at a very important juncture in the markets.The Fed Pivot will be the beginning of the real crash!Today on Nov 30, 2022, Jerome Powell virtually pivoted. You don’t have to cut rates. Just to say you began to think about thinking about slowing rate increases is enough for a Santa Clause rally.I believe inflation will either become stagflation or worse, deflation. I remain steadfast that we will be very close… Read more »
US Dollar futures are back below 106
Is this the time that 106 support fails the Dollar Bulls?
One of these times.
The next stop on the elevator is 99.
Gold is up +23 since Jay Powell started speaking.
Did you see the Gold Bear trap immediately before Powell was to speak at 1:30 pm ET?
Pretty strong finish for gold at 1789 and silver as well 22.48. Let’s see what tomorrow brings; Asia looks to be holding so far but NY is far more important.
Initial reaction to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech
The US Dollar got whacked. But that is just the set-up. Let’s see the follow-through.
The volatility in the US Dollar is about the same as Bitcoin.
Gamblers love it.
BEA Revises Third Quarter 2022 GDP Growth Upward to 2.93% The entire gain came from the growth of exports minus imports for the quarter. Rick Davis at Consumer Metrics Institute summarized his report as follows: — The growth of personal consumption spending (and the offsetting draw down of inventories) is funded by a reduced savings rate, which has now hit a 17 year low.— The good news is that fixed investments by private entities and state/local governments remained strong.Although the upward revision to the headline number is encouraging, it is clear that ongoing consumer spending rates are being funded from… Read more »
And imports are down due to supply glut. An interesting day, but I am mildly interested with the Fed Chair’s word salad.
Check credit card spending, people are borrowing as well as dipping into savings.
I’m guessing that the total exports figure was pumped up by aid to Ukraine