[7:22am ET] The last time America experienced a financial crisis of the magnitude of the present one was in the Great Depression era, for about ten years from 1929. During that volatile time in capital markets, there were six complete bear and bull cycles. As history tends to repeat itself, you might be interested to know what happened to the S&P 500 over that time.
[6:56am ET] Low and declining volume in the face of a seven-week market rally in a long-term cycle bottom phase is a tell-tale indicator of trader attitude.
[6:16am ET] From Briefing.com, here are the different ratings used for 129 investment research firms. The SEC which has brought in standards like XML should also set a standard for ratings from these firms so the public can properly compare.
If it were up to me, I’d like to see both series for every stock that is rated:
Market Outperform, Market Perform, Market Underperform
Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, Sector Underperform
[7:24am ET] Control of the United States government is, as the people know, in the hands of a relatively few people. Has been and will likely continue to be. The problem is that the People
[7:24am ET] Control of the United States government is, as the people know, in the hands of a relatively few people. Has been and will likely continue to be. The problem is that the People
[3:25am ET] The US equity market continues to give complex signals as to possible trend direction, but so far nothing is breaking. The rally is now seven weeks old, and many traders continue to question many aspects. Where, for instance is the volume?
Clearly the hype is there. Bloomberg reported that 235 of 338 companies exceeded expectations with the quarterly earnings report. But, is a
[7:44am ET] One of our missions with this blog is to develop a community that individually and collectively can develop skills at trading that will help protect and grow wealth. None of us are right or wrong all of the time with respect to our analysis and decisions, so we need to remain flexible in our thinking, always weighing the pros and cons.
[8:25am ET] The US equity market is giving complex signals as to possible trend direction. Yesterday, the market volume and breadth improved, and chart break-outs are showing up, possibly, in the NASDAQ, FTSE, NIKKEI, and more. But the rally is already seven weeks old, and many traders are questioning many aspects.
The major indices began Thursday by moving quickly to the upside, reaching session highs before noon and then selling off through the afternoon, before closing mostly unchanged from Wednesday.
[7:44am ET] One of our missions with this blog is to develop a community that individually and collectively can develop skills at trading that will help protect and grow wealth. None of us are right or wrong all of the time with respect to our analysis and decisions, so we need to remain flexible in our thinking, always weighing the pros and cons.
[7:35am ET] So what happened after I tried to focus the Community on volatility yesterday morning?
There are occasional days in the market when we do our set-ups that we sense volatility. Today is one of those. We have been watching the sell-off of the high volume, high-beta, high-tech stocks (RIMM, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU and QCOM) into the broad market strength on Friday and again yesterday, which we noted in today
[7:35am ET] So what happened after I tried to focus the Community on volatility yesterday morning?
There are occasional days in the market when we do our set-ups that we sense volatility. Today is one of those. We have been watching the sell-off of the high volume, high-beta, high-tech stocks (RIMM, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU and QCOM) into the broad market strength on Friday and again yesterday, which we noted in today
[8:33am ET] The US equity market, flushed with buying momentum from Europe, opened with a significant gap, ignoring a deplorable GDP report, and then lifted through a
[8:32am ET] After reaching the session high late in the day, the US equity market suddenly slid downward to a closing loss. Financial names are also in the spotlight today with reports indicating that regulators have told Citigroup and Bank of America that they may need to raise more capital based on early results of the stress test. Both banks have objected to these findings and are expected to respond, and this has taken the Financial sector sharply lower today.
[7:25am ET] There are occasional days in the market when we do our set-ups that we sense volatility. Today is one of those.
We have been watching the sell-off of the high volume, high-beta, high-tech stocks (RIMM, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU and QCOM) into the broad market strength on Friday and again yesterday, which we noted in today
[7:25am ET] There are occasional days in the market when we do our set-ups that we sense volatility. Today is one of those.
We have been watching the sell-off of the high volume, high-beta, high-tech stocks (RIMM, AAPL, AMZN, BIDU and QCOM) into the broad market strength on Friday and again yesterday, which we noted in today
[9:29am ET] Fears of a Swine Flu pandemic is the latest albatross pulling down global markets. Traders bid up Hospitals ($RXH +2.3%), Pharmaceuticals ($DRG +1.6%) and Biotech ($BTK +0.8%) on Monday.
GM restructuring, including the elimination of a further 21,000 hourly jobs, the end of the Pontiac brand, and a proposed equity for debt swap, also grabbed traders
[7:38am ET] Wall Street Journal has reported that Bank of America and Citigroup will be directed by the US monetary authorities to raise more capital. This begs the question why not JP Morgan. After all, these three banks had captured 95% of the Credit Default Swap business, and CDS was the heart of the problem.
I have a theory on what happened here, mostly speculation on my part, but one that I have discussed before.
[6:38am ET] As in life, conflict is always present in the business and financial world. Today, this war theater is in elevated motion. The impact is being felt in equity markets around the world.
The Mexican-American border may soon be shut over the outbreak of swine flu that apparently has already killed over 100 people. Like SARS, a Swine Flu pandemic could significantly impact the global economy. A worst-case scenario has been tabbed at costing $3 trillion and a loss of 4.8% global GDP.
http://tinyurl.com/8bar9
http://tinyurl.com/22ezbq
[1:28pm ET] As an extensive user of put and call options, my trading team is able to effectively manage accounts that run the gamut from the most conservative to the most speculative, in the most volatile market conditions, just using equities of several Cara 100 companies.
I often say that, based on equity derivatives of a single company like IBM or Exxon for instance, I can meet the needs of clients who otherwise would be invested in anything from low-risk bonds to high-risk penny stocks.
[7:21am ET] During this extended period of unstable capital markets, we have long pointed out that there must be transparency and accountability for volume to return and the markets to recover. Finally, an issue has broken that puts us at a crossroads.
At the end of this week, a remarkable incident has put the public one step away from learning the truth as to how the financial system and the capital markets are being controlled, and by whom.
[11:35am ET] When the CEO of one of the world
[7:52am ET] I have yet to hear a logical explanation as to when the financial system crisis will be over, and why. But the more I read leads me to believe it could take a couple years.
The IMF, which is doing research in this area, has published an extensive paper called the Global Financial Stability Report. Here is the link to Chapter 1:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2009/01/pdf/chap1.pdf
The IMF website contains the links to all chapters:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2009/01/index.htm
IMF summarizes their report’s opening chapter as follows:
[8:30am ET] Yesterday, and on the weekend, I asked the question,
[8:30am ET] Yesterday, and on the weekend, I asked the question,