Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tuesday, Jun 30, 2009

[5:40am ET] Aussie-based technical analyst Colin Twiggs believes that gold at 940 is at a break-out point, either up or down. As you know, I agree; moreover I have opined that the price of gold will any day make a spurt to $1,000/oz, and so I have closed the bullish put writes in the gold and silver miners and switched to an even more bullish program of buying calls. Today could be the break-out day. Of course, central banks are loathe to permit that break-out. It

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Wednesday, Jun 24, 2009

[7:19am ET] The gold trade is back on today as central banks have agreed to take actions that will reduce the cost of borrowing for banks, companies, mortgage holders and consumers. European Central Bank’s first ever one-year refinancing operation today was an incredible Euro442 billion at 1%. Banks will start lending again. Later today, the Fed will almost certainly follow up with a similar action despite the verbiage we may see in their FOMC report.

I sensed this coming. Yesterday I wrote:

Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Wednesday, Jun 24, 2009

[7:19am ET] The gold trade is back on today as central banks have agreed to take actions that will reduce the cost of borrowing for banks, companies, mortgage holders and consumers. European Central Bank’s first ever one-year refinancing operation today was an incredible Euro442 billion at 1%. Banks will start lending again. Later today, the Fed will almost certainly follow up with a similar action despite the verbiage we may see in their FOMC report.

I sensed this coming. Yesterday I wrote:

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Monday, Jun 22, 2009

[10:35am ET] The World Bank has reported today that the global economy will shrink -2.9% in 2009 and that commodity prices have peaked. This report is having an impact in the market today, particularly for commodity producing countries like Brazil, and in the commodity related industries that trade in NY.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a0r3UGqnHprg

Presently we are net short equities about -5% in our positions, excluding gold. GLD has traded as low as 90.13 in the first 30 minutes. At 10:34am ET, GLD is bid 90.37.

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tuesday, Jun 16, 2009

[7:25am ET] Yesterday, I made the point that a move was afoot by Interventionists to suppress concerns over the logical result of the Great Reflation Era, that being extreme inflation, and there were comments from people who believe that printing all this money would not head off the coming deflation. All I can do is keep the discussion simple in that if there is a massive action, I expect a massive reaction.

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Monday, Jun 15, 2009

[7:50am ET] This morning, the market picture can be summed up as follows: global equities down; metals and precious metal prices down; US bonds up (yields down); and US Dollar up. Interventionists have stepped up their campaign to suppress the logical result of the Great Reflation Era, which is that extreme inflation is the most probable outcome.

In any case, wait 24 hours and the weather will change. More importantly, it

Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Saturday, Jun 13, 2009

[8:55am ET] Although the Paychex Inc stock chart (PAYX) looks not dissimilar to the broad equity market, Goldman Sachs has downgraded the stock from Sell to Conviction Sell. Clearly there are a number of corporate client losses through the recession and the employee numbers per client are falling for this payroll accounting service company, but if Goldman sees Green Shoots and Abby Joseph Cohen envisions clear skies ahead for corporate America, I am puzzled why they now rate Paychex the worst level in their coverage.

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Saturday, Jun 13, 2009

[8:55am ET] Although the Paychex Inc stock chart (PAYX) looks not dissimilar to the broad equity market, Goldman Sachs has downgraded the stock from Sell to Conviction Sell. Clearly there are a number of corporate client losses through the recession and the employee numbers per client are falling for this payroll accounting service company, but if Goldman sees Green Shoots and Abby Joseph Cohen envisions clear skies ahead for corporate America, I am puzzled why they now rate Paychex the worst level in their coverage.