Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 11, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

For those of you who have been long stocks, good for you.

The market is overbought, but as I showed you last week, it started a new cycle so it has time to run to the upside. Here is that chart again:

ggimage02_031113.png

Price and breadth indicators are both looking good again:

ggimage01_031113.png

Bill Cara’s Week in Review #11, 2013

WIR #11 March 10

[2:26 pm ET Sunday] Finally, after three weeks of mixed, and increasingly negative, messages from the capital markets when I figured that prices were ready to lift, I believe the path has been set. The first step will likely be a small one in reverse, but that will soon be followed by a major move higher. And this time, equities, commodities and precious metals will move together as the US Dollar and US Bonds begin to fall.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 8, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Having a day off to recover from a four-day 70-hour marathon at PDAC 2013, I have had a chance to re-think where the capital market is at today.

Four months ago the market sentiment was bearish and some of the biggest names in the business warned of an impending 20% to 40% sell-off in equities. As you know, I was a contrarian, forecasting a much higher level and already the S&P 500 has exceeded my lofty expectations.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 7, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Unfortunately, all the bugs have not been worked out on the blog and I am having difficulty in posting my morning report. I have it saved and will post when the blog is working correctly.

In summary, the post has 8 charts and points to very constructive action in the miners yesterday and a possible long trade set-up. The next few days will be very important – we may have seen a low but it is not confirmed yet.

Hopefully I will have it up later.

Have a great trading day!


Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 6, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Yesterday afternoon, I wrote this:

“As sometimes happens, technology has unforeseen issues. The blog was down for a while this morning and we apologize for any inconvenience but we believe the problem has been fixed.

If you want to know what is driving this market, simply go to the following website:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Liquidity is everywhere and it won’t end soon.

Book mark that page for future reference.”

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 5, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[2:00pm ET] Good afternoon, Geoff here.

As sometimes happens, technology has unforeseen issues. The blog was down for a while this morning and we apologize for any inconvenience but we believe the problem has been fixed.

If you want to know what is driving this market, simply go to the following website:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Liquidity is everywhere and it won’t end soon.

Book mark that page for future reference.

Have a great trading day and see you tomorrow!


Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 28, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Stock futures are slightly higher as I write this. Traders have shown indecision in the last week and will continue to do so until prices break out of the current range in either direction.

The Bullish Percent Index in the gold mining shares continues to drop with each successive drop in the price of gold. As you can see, the miners are in “hatred” mode.

ggimage01_022813.png

Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 27, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

From the weekend report, regarding gold and the long CEF trade:

“The following current conditions are all part and parcel of a major bottom:
• extremely negative sentiment in both the metal and mining shares
• outflows of GLD and GDX at extreme levels – signs of capitulation
• sector breadth extremely oversold
• price oscillators extremely oversold
• CEF moved into a discount to net asset value, which indicates being oversold

Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 26, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

The weak US Dollar that I mentioned prior to yesterday’s open ended up reversing, moving strongly to the upside. That strength pressured equities south but gold managed to rally along with bonds.

Last week I showed you the following chart:

ggimage05_022213.png

Here is that chart updated to yesterday’s close:

ggimage03_022613.png

As you can see, the shift has begun to take shape, how long it lasts is anyone’s guess.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 25, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

The US Dollar is giving the longs a boost this morning.

US Dollar

ggimage01_022513.png

The US Dollar is lower this morning. It is overbought and has found resistance at the 50% retracement and looks to be moving lower. We are looking for a drop to a new daily cycle low either this week or next so a decline makes sense from a Four Pillars approach.

Bill Cara’s Week in Review #9, 2013

[12:53 pm ET Sunday] It should come as no big surprise that just as the broad market prices hit over-bought levels as seen by many technical indicators and the US economic data was showing sudden weakness (Hurricane Sandy followed by payroll tax changes combining for a ‘perfect storm’?), the global stock market hit a speed bump. But the bigger issue I think is what may have happened at the Moscow G20 meetings last weekend (versus the innocuous-looking statement they produced). I say ‘may’ because we are not being told.