Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 25, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Equity futures are higher this morning following a deal being struck in Cyprus.

As I stated last week, the index is seeking new highs. However, supporting Bill’s analysis in the WIR, you can see internal weakness in the index that is pointing towards a decline – probably after price makes new highs.

Unless the following breadth measures improve, I would doubt a sustained higher price without a decline first.

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Have a great trading day!


Bill Cara’s Week in Review #13, 2013

[12:40 pm ET Sunday] All eyes on Cyprus! Why? I don’t have a clue other than maybe it’s because of the similarities with Hitler’s army take-over of Austria in 1938 – small, defenseless and not able to put up any resistance – before the Nazi forces went on to bigger things and to hell with international law.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 22, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

The Cyprus situation continues to cause consternation among traders, but the IMF gave Cyprus until Monday to decide if they will meet their demands, so hopefully transparency will improve. The fly on the wall is going profit coming out of this. Unfortunately, I don’t know that fly but I expect volatility to increase due to rumors and news.

The most likely outcome of this situation is increased liquidity, imo.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 21, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Hello from the Harvard Faculty Club.

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Good morning, Geoff here.

Recent weeks have seen newsletter writers become extremely bullish while the public has jumped into mutual funds with ferver.

While retail bullishness is running rampant, we have seen signs of the “smart” commercial traders becoming very leery of the rally continuing much higher.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 20, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

The government of Cyprus voted not to allow the theft of depositor’s money to pay for a bailout – I’m sorry, I meant “tax” of depositor’s money. Whether they caved to public pressure, their own conscience or pressure from Russia, we will never know.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 18, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

The Cyprus situation is extremely interesting. According to just about every news agency, old Russian money is deposited in the Cyprus banks and the KGB will be out for revenge should their money be “taxed” alongside the Cypriots deposits. We shall see if this outright confiscation of private capital will come to pass without repercussions, but I have to ask; how can this possibly go over well with the public? If it happens in Cyprus, it can happen anywhere, and I do mean anywhere.

Bill Cara’s Week in Review #12, 2013

[3:50 pm ET Sunday] The cover story this week reads: “Most economic news was unexpectedly positive and indicated that the recovery may be gaining momentum.”

But is it real or simply a story the Fed is feeding us today? I fear the latter and, after watching the shills on CNBC tout the party line in recent days, I have no concern that my forecast of much higher prices ahead is already a done deal thanks to the Fed, Friends and Family. The rest of us will be forced to play along.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 15, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Could the tide be turning for the “rest of us”?

The Senate looks to be on to JP Morgan’s deceitful ways. However, because Washington was complicit on much of the bank fraud that led to the country’s current financial situation, I’m pessimistic on anything actually coming of this.

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 14, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET]

Bill here.

When the new website is completed, I will better organize the work of contributors like Vad, kaimu and Harp so that you can easily access their archives.

Yesterday there was the following comment in the blog about Harp’s discussion at the Cara Toronto 2012 Conference (Sept 27-29):

Harp’s Roadmap posted at the top of yesterday’s blog
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-mar-13-2013#comment-118125
Submitted by x (13 comments) on Wed, 03/13/2013 – 20:37 #118125

Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 13, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Bill here.

Our son Will sent this message and photo early today from the hospital:

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Little Owen is in the middle of a demonstration on how a perfect delivery should go.

Owen Reilly Cara was born last night just before 10pm – 2 weeks early – just like his big Sister Caitlin. 6lbs 9oz with reddish curly hair (hopefully it lasts).