The Four Pillars Trading Solution Morning Notes: April 11, 2014

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                                 Decision Making Architecture for Successful Trading

April 11, 2014

The S&P 500 broke below the lower box boundary yesterday:


As noted in the chart note; price broke below the 50 dma, Fibonacci retracement and lower box boundary. 

Obviously longs need to be very careful today.  Futures are lower and unless this improves, many traders will not want to be long going into the weekend and selling may continue into the close.

Equity weakness is helping the long bond trade noted here the other day.

Thanks for stopping by and have a great trading day!




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  1. Bob(129 comments)-
    April 11, 2014 at 9:27 am

    I see China has offered its first bond for sale in Australia at 3.25 % return . Over subscribed 1.45 times !

  2. Stan(415 comments)-
    April 11, 2014 at 1:33 pm

    Select prices at 1:30 EDT Comex close –
    June Gold 1318, May Silver 19.96, May Copper 3.04
    SPX futs 1814, SPX cash 1820, VIX 17, NYSE A/D 9:21
    T-10 2.616%, DXY 79.49, WTI crude 104.05

  3. johnuk(1951 comments)-
    April 11, 2014 at 3:23 pm

    Am in cash now, no idea what to expect next week, will wait till Monday, see what happens then.

  4. johnuk(1951 comments)-
    April 11, 2014 at 3:29 pm

    Bond Traders From JPMorgan to RBS Said Placed on Leave.

    Mortgage-bond traders at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS) were placed on leave in recent weeks or months, according to people familiar with the matter.

    JPMorgan’s Ben Morganstein and Inga Norton, Morgan Stanley’s Nicholas Bonacci, and Adam Siegel of RBS were told not to come to work, the people said, asking for anonymity because the matter is private. It’s unclear why or if the actions are connected, the people said.

    Former Jefferies Group LLC bond trader Jesse Litvak, 39, was convicted last month of securities fraud for lying to clients about what he charged them to trade mortgage bonds. Other banks including New York-based JPMorgan received requests for information from U.S. officials about mortgage-bond trading after Litvak’s arrest, people briefed on the matter said in January.

  5. April 11, 2014 at 4:55 pm
  6. swing_trader(401 comments)-
    April 12, 2014 at 12:31 am

    XBI has been a good short for the last month. Hit the 200 SMA at 132.6 three days ago and found support there until today. Broke strong support today at 130. May be headed to next strong support at 115 or else snap back to (now resistance) at 130 if the close today at 124.6 represents exhaustion. Yet there is not a coincident volume spike which I would expect to signal exhaustion.
    XBI daily volume doubled about 3 weeks ago and has been consistently high, averaging 1.2MM share/day.
    XBI is the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, which prior to a month ago was a momentum high flier. It had hit a high of 171.87 on 2/22/14 and printed a doji cross on low volume two days later which signaled me to take a small short position in XBI. On 3/21 the volume spike accompanying the gap down led me to increase my short to a full position. Took 1/2 of profits today.
    Medium term still looks bearish, as the XBI P&F diagram,P shows it staying below the recent Bearish Resistance Line.

  7. Stan(415 comments)-
    April 12, 2014 at 10:13 am

    COT report as of Tues 4/8
    Big 8 short Pall, Plat, SL, GL; long CU (3% less long vs 4/1)

    Ohio geologists for the first time have linked earthquake activity in the Marcellus Shale to fracking, a new connection that could have implications for oil and gas drilling in the state and beyond. As a result, Ohio is setting new permitting conditions in quake-sensitive areas and has halted drilling indefinitely at the site of five quakes last month in the Youngstown area. Earthquakes recently rattled residents in Oklahoma, putting that state on track for record quake activity this year, which some seismologists say may be tied to oil and gas exploration.

    Among companies drilling in the Marcellus and Utica shales: RRC, CHK, COG, ACMP, APC, ATLS, CVX, CNX, DTE, EOG, EQT, XCO, XOM, MWE, NBL, RGP, REXX, RICE, RDS.A, RDS.B,SWN, STO, SXL, TLM, WMB, WPX.

  8. April 12, 2014 at 7:11 pm
  9. johnuk(1951 comments)-
    April 14, 2014 at 6:57 am

    I will post morning summaries in Europe again in a weeks time, as I am in Lithuania till Sunday.Good luck with your trades.

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