The Four Pillars Trading Solution Morning Notes: April 10, 2014

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                                 Decision Making Architecture for Successful Trading

April 10, 2014

Gold rallied up to 1325 overnight, a few dollars higher than our target:


The price of gold has been pulled up by a declining US Dollar:


A dollar decline like the one seen above should have led a much stronger rally in the metal and miners.

The risk ratio chart is not a screaming buy:


If the gold rally was strong, price would have moved higher, volume would have been higher during the rally and the risk ratio chart would have been Risk ON.  None of those things occurred, so gold bulls need to be very careful here. 

The US Dollar should find a low soon and gold should reverse course.




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  1. Stan(415 comments)-
    April 10, 2014 at 1:30 pm

    Select prices at 1:30 EDT Comex close –
    June Gold 1321, May Silver 20.14, May Copper 3.04
    SPX futs 1835, SPX cash 1841, VIX 15.53, NYSE A/D 9:21
    T-10 2.621%, DXY 79.45, WTI crude 103.25

    DXY trying to hold Mendoza line; gold and silver bouncing testing resistance, silver leading today but well off intraday high; SPX testing low print for week; VIX off it’s high for the week; tomorrow should be very interesting going into the weekend close$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64836621623
    look at the bearish engulfing bar on GOOGL
    ditto Gilead; very bearish action

  2. johnuk(1953 comments)-
    April 10, 2014 at 3:23 pm

    Hi Stan, markets have taken a nasty turn.
    SPY breaking lower than recent lows. and 50 MA.

    TLT doing ok.

    UUP at mid March low

    GLD trying to hang in there.

    CEF +1.29%

  3. Stan(415 comments)-
    April 10, 2014 at 4:19 pm

    Hi John – closing numbers from this side of the pond
    Select prices at 4:00 EDT NYSE close –
    June Gold 1318, May Silver 20.04, May Copper 3.03
    SPX futs 1827, SPX cash 1833, VIX 15.82, NYSE A/D 8:24
    T-10 2.645%, DXY 79.48, WTI crude 103.35
    NYSE tick -748; NAS tick -560

    according to Art Cashin, Thurs wk prior to opex tends to be negative; that may be true, but this negative has broken support

  4. johnuk(1953 comments)-
    April 11, 2014 at 4:15 am

    Friday,11th April, 9:20 GMT.
    FTSE,CAC and DAX -0.86%,-0.91% to -0.86% Respectively.

    POG $1316 flat
    POS $19.95 flat,
    PLAT. $1454 up marginally,
    PALL $783 flat,
    US dollar Index 79.40 flat.

    Non PM miners

    Antofagasta -1.81%
    BHP (blt) -1.18%
    Glencore Xstrata -0.54%
    KAZ -1.79%
    Rio Tinto -1.46%

    PM miners.

    African Barrick Gold +0.23%
    Fresnillo -0.50%
    Randgold -1.71%

    Arm -4.11%
    Sage -2.96%

  5. Stan(415 comments)-
    April 11, 2014 at 5:48 am

    charts and comments awaiting moderation

    take a look at GLD, GDX, SIL, SLV, UUP
    take care guys

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