Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Wednesday, Jul. 29, 2009

[8:19am ET] As pointed out in Michael Panzner

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180 Comments

  1. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 12:28 pm

    Good morning.

    DOW – UBS Initiates Coverage with a Buy.

  2. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 12:44 pm
  3. Schleppy(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 12:53 pm

    I went to watch them this morning and they are gone from Slope of Hope and could not find them on YouTube 🙁

    • yvrapx(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:05 pm

      Tough Schleppy, I watched them the other night and they were very good. Tried tracking down the videos and kept getting a msg from YouTube that it was protected by copyright by a Michael Glyn.

      • photogray(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 2:31 pm

        Available as bit torrent download off Zero Hedge I accessed thru Finviz

  4. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:06 pm
    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 8:00 pm

      Les,

      Because of deflation leanings (at least until jobs pick up) I read the article with great interest. I have been aware the purchase of Treasuries by foreigners has not kept up with issuance; The Contrarian Investor and others have pointed this out. That other bond purchases and equities sales have also fallen is no surprise either. Nearly everyone seems to be in similar condition to what we’re experiencing.

      I’m not so sure this is so, “Put simply, the only thing now standing between the U.S. dollar holding its own and an almost overnight debasement (and history has shown us that when things go wrong with a currency, they can go wrong very quickly) is the willingness of foreigners to play nice.”

      Nations ALWAYS have their own interests at heart just like companies do.

      But the real puzzler is this statement regarding China, “Our guess is that they are selling Treasuries and not telling.”

      Selling to whom? For every seller the must be a counter party. With no shortage of US inventory available, why and who would be buying US bonds from China?

      This pretty much blows his whole argument of a dollar collapse by bond failure. Doesn’t it?

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 8:15 pm

        Grym, Kaimu’s the grave digger on dirt like that. I’d ask him where it’s going. But remember the bizarre case of $100 billion dollars in “fake” bonds seized entering Switzerland. (question – how the hell did the authorities (who are altogether too busy chasing illegal immigrants – perceive that two Japanese nationals – positive role in Swiss tourism and international business that they have – required the once over with a knife in their baggage to find a false compartment??). That case has all but disappeared from the media.

        Who has deeper pockets (filled with real money) than state authorities to purchase this treasury rubbish and hold the issuers good on their promise, with the historically acknowledged power to do so?

        begins with H, ends with B&B.

        …or maybe not. I’ve had one too many this evening. Enough of the conspiracies.

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 10:42 pm

          Les,

          There is just too much unknown and unknowable these days. I only had one, but long for the days when B&B was simply brandy & Benedictine 🙂

          Cheers and here’s to a global realization that any substitute for truth can last only until it is crushed in the inevitable fall. (as per Bill’s commentary and Wiley Coyote’s experience:)

  5. Otis(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:06 pm

    jmorris1950

    Thanks for that study. Very interesting. When checking metal prices on the way to work this morning (CNBC mobile) I saw they posted the following article regarding the ETFS Silver fund. Must be in response the study you posted that was released yesterday. Need to reassure investors to keep the party going. Study also posted for those of you who did not read it. Glad I own some physical!!!!

    CNBC

    http://tinyurl.com/mga3w2

    Silver bar study

    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Silve

    Bill, great comments again this morning. A group of my coworkers had this same conversation yesterday after work.

    • Menock(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 9:06 pm

      I’ve read that the integrity of the futures market is compromised by the exchange allowing delivery via ETF shares. I’ve read that the short position in silver held by the three largest banks in the US was 70% of all short speculator positions earlier this year. If large amounts of silver bullion allegedly held by the SLV ETF don’t exist, then the price seems manipulated in a big way. JP Morgan is the custodian and one of the aforementioned largest US banks.

      So I do a little checking on NYMEX.com and find that indeed:
      Notice No. 50
      02/22/2005
      Interpretation of COMEX Division EFPS: Gold-Backed Exchange-Traded ETF Shares Accepted as Cash Leg of EFP
      Exchange Rule 104.36, which governs exchanges of futures for physicals (“EFP”) transactions on the COMEX Division, refers to a “physical commodity” as one of the required components of an EFP transaction but also indicates that the physical commodity need only be substantially the economic equivalent of the futures contract being exchanged.

      The purpose of this Notice is to confirm that the Exchange would accept gold-backed exchange-traded Funds (“ETF”) shares as the physical commodity component for an EFP transaction involving COMEX gold futures contracts, provided that all elements of a bona fide EFP pursuant to Exchange Rule 104.36 are satisfied. (this notice predates the SLV ETF – my note)

      I used to be upset that for every trillion dollars in bailout cost, the banksters cost each US household about $8,000. Though only those households making enough to have a marginal tax rate are going to be paying. But, if my losses in precious metal miners are because of large scale price manipulation, then my future tax burden might be the least of it.

  6. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:20 pm

    What’s the cause/impact of the drop in China last night?

  7. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:25 pm

  8. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:34 pm

  9. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:39 pm

    If the bears can’t press the gap down open, they will have a problem.

  10. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:39 pm

  11. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    I guess the correction has begun in ernest over there. Here too eh?

    Here’s a joke for ya to pass the time …

    “My grandmother is over eighty and still doesn’t need glasses. Drinks right out of the bottle.” H.Y.

    • johnuk(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:03 pm

      This is FETVs take on china drop below.Speed Wobble??

      “China’s main stock index has posted its biggest one-day decline this year, after one firm’s successful share issue raised fears of market overheating.

      The Shanghai Composite Index fell 5% on Wednesday as shares in China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) ended up 56% on their debut.”

      http://tinyurl.com/mwgvks

  12. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 1:54 pm

    Sounds like something wounded chickens do after being hit by cars……

  13. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:02 pm

    Going nowhere fast yet once again and Treasuries are the hot ticket… Simply amazing!

  14. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:13 pm

    btw, shark. Re drinking out of the bottle. That’s the kind of thing they need to delete from screenplays (along with the ubiquitous lighting of cigarettes). It’s unsanitary as hell. Who in their right mind would want to drink from the same bottle more than once? Worse, pass it around? (Have they resolved that problem at Catholic masses?)

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:17 pm

      RE:> (Have they resolved that problem at Catholic masses?)

      yes. shot glasses are all the rage in church now. 😉

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:19 pm

      It depends. If it’s everclear or 151/Cruzan Clipper rum there shouldn’t be a problem…. :>)

  15. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    Sure, take them away so when GS wants to move the market nobody can join their party. As if GS isn’t already raking in enough.

    Just love it when they protect me from myself…. What’s next, outlawing drinking from a bottle?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:21 pm

      “What’s next, outlawing drinking from a bottle?”

      Hey, if you can finish the bottle in one sitting, I have no problem with it.

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 2:21 pm

        gotta stick with those little airline bottles then….

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 2:23 pm

          But then you’d need half a dozen 😉

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            July 29, 2009 at 2:25 pm

            I’m guessing I’m the only person who has a fascination with those little beauties…Let it go CP.

  16. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:30 pm

    Here comes another wave of mortgage defaults and Cramer says buy from a list of bankrupt institutions. Real Smart! I wonder how much longer the banking system can continue running off involuntary donations from Treasury buyers and taxpayers… (these two are one in the same).

  17. FireFly(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:33 pm
  18. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    Looking to re-enter later today.

  19. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    They seem to be enjoying moving against the tide….

    Long UAUA and CAL

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:43 pm

      Lower oil, higher $USD= airline rally.
      Oil inventory came in higher than expected….less demand=lower price.
      higher $USD = lower price. same for gold/silver as we can see.

  20. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:40 pm

      Looking to see if it gets some support @ 200dma 8.36

  21. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:44 pm

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:49 pm
    • gc(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 2:50 pm

      looks interesting for a reopen for me too..
      should i get some in the money call?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 3:25 pm

  22. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:49 pm

    Finally pressing DIA, and EEM shorts a bit. Sentiment seems to be changing but there is the end-of-month markup to deal with. If the market doesn’t reverse in a fairly big way by then, I’ll give up. This is probably the herd thinking as well so I may just be walking into the trap.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 3:02 pm

      jmorris- I think we may have a pull back going into Friday, but it may be due to the need to raise cash for a run into EOM. As with most endeavors in life, people like to make the most of any opportunity, and fund managers have the opportunity for another positive month.

      • jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 3:08 pm

        I agree… although a strong reversal would be great I suspect any pullback will be relatively brief and shallow.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 3:17 pm

        2nd – “need to raise cash for a run into EOM.”

        Which part of the cycle are you referencing, the run into Fri or selling into Fri to raise cash for next month’s run…? I wouldn’t normally ask but in this case…

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 3:47 pm

          CP- It takes cash to drive the market up. Funds don’t (normally) keep large cash reserves. So it would make sense to raise cash by selling off positions that may already be dead money, and plow the cash (temporarily) into high flyers in an attempt to drive ‘favored’ positions higher? (I’m referring to making sales today, Thursday, and Friday morning in order to generate a green close Friday.)

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            July 29, 2009 at 3:53 pm

            What if they are like CTAB and see the high risk/RSI so are mostly in cash (or short)?
            If I’m smart enough to be mostly in cash and taking pot shots from the rim of the barrel, I know there are others WAY smarter/risk averse doing better than I am.

  23. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 2:50 pm

    Government contractors are nearly as connected as GS. Apparently the money spigots are wide open but not flowing down main street yet as the tax base(IRS revenues) is contracting.

    General Dynamics owns the Electric Boat Co. BTW…

  24. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 3:27 pm

      Without a huge market sell off. $USD up as well, prosperity has been reestablished for the American economy!

      • cheapy(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 7:16 pm

        Not enough vol on futures for it to be the bottom, IMO. When it gets to there we will see vol as the tarp money covers a bunch of its COT commercial short position.

        Just my opinion. All cash watching for dollar bounce to top out…

  25. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 3:44 pm

    I happened to buy a paper and actually read some of it before I came across an article in the Financial Post under Financial Services about the Australian Government advising the banks to restrict their reliance on government backing against deposit failures.

    I would assume these are famous last words, but in the interim, I couldn’t help but think that banks will be hard pressed to back their deposits with anything. If the political resistance to bank bailouts increases to any extent, then banks are facing serious shortfalls if their paper collapses once again.

    A lot of them are back to dealing in off balance sheet credit derivatives and swaps in order to shore up their credit. The liquidity produced is being parried against the commodities. This presents no significant change to the mentality that led up to the recently collapsed oil market corner, and is now being used to pump the copper price.

    (in the absence of an article, you can find the same information via the web)

    Google Search – Australia Cites Bank Guarantee Exit Strategy

    My own take on the situation is that banks would do themselves great disserve to rely on computer algorithms with circular mathematical arguments at their core and agreements with third party liens against all of their assets, while there is gold still available over the counter. Banks used to hold gold as their primary deposit at one time.

    But, then there is another dire development that could occur as well, and that is across-the-board currency devaluation, which would penalize pensions, wage earners, and company earnings alike. It would favour the banks, but only if they have some sort of asset that does not depreciate with a currency devaluation.

    Now, this would mean that a market corner in gold is possible, since it could be the best vehicle to offload billions of dollars worth of paper held for years against a gold market decline.

  26. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 3:52 pm

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 2:37 am

      US market futes up once again. Obviously, the current ‘impulse wave’ is not business as usual. It’s a rogue wave that will drown the shorts, and if I were (still) short, I would have to recognize it as a real danger. If you’re still in the water..why?

  27. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    I moved half my accounts to cash until I find a trend I can trade on.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 4:49 pm

      tof- I like the point Bill made this morning. There must be millions of investors wondering WTF they’re doing in the stock market. Maybe we should stay ahead of the crowd and start looking into bullion, collectibles, and real estate?

      This is retirement money we’re talking about. Why should we be gambling with it in a casino? Even Peter Lynch would have to agree it’s hard to make a case for the average investor to be fully invested right now.

      You know, when I started reading this blog in 2005, I was still convinced it was possible to strategically make money in the markets, and hoping to learn how. Instead, I find myself day trading/gambling to make a few bucks every day.

      It may not be long before I pull the money out for down payments on rental properties.

      • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 5:04 pm

        2nd – I agree completely. I’m still too young (31) and don’t have enough money to do that yet. I’ve been investing for 8 years and have done quite well but my account balances swing pretty wildly. I own a side business in retail that is paying decent money and I’m still saving in my job and paying down debt related to starting my business. My plan is to be able to make/save enough money to buy or start up a few laundromats and / or dry cleaning businesses. I’d rather do those businesses than dealing with tenants, but I’m sure you can do well in that business too.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 5:18 pm

          teamonfuego – “I’d rather do those businesses than dealing with tenants”

          Oh so true, it’s unbelievable how hard some folks can be on a home not to mention trying to balance the budget against a moving target like property taxes.

  28. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    did anyone really expect the USD to crash?
    if they believe the masters of the monetary universe can control
    and cajole other Central Banks into buying their bonds, how would
    they allow the USD to crash? it would serve no one’s interest.

    here we sit again with gold falling hard, gold stocks falling even harder,
    and the USD trending up once again from what is starting to look like a double bottom. we discussed many many times over when you hear stories of china and russia worried about US currency and talk of divesting from the dollar that something is afoot to pull the wool over your eyes.

    a few weeks later and here we stand, and its not over yet.

    so next time you see an article about a nation like russia express concern for the US dollar ask yourself: if they are worried about the dollar, what alternative currency would they prefer that is large enough to accommodate a siesmic shift in a central banks FOREX position?

    and dont say gold because thus far it hasnt and simply will not happen. the mass rush into gold people keep harping on is a myth. during the panic crahses people go to cash. period. we have seen it before and continue to see it. how woudl things suddenly change?

    buying gold at this point is a sure way to money going nowhere as the USD wont go down without a fight. im not happy about it either but the cult-like status of analysts who have been proven to be so wrong time and time again has to stop. we dont need to hear what these people have to say about where gold will go because they have no idea. if they think it will hit $2000 in a year or two then buy and check back next year. trust me when i say you will be sore looking at a gold price no where close to that 1 year or even 3 years from now.

    should gold move down below $840 or so, and even make the 7 handle you will see many dumping gold and jumping the gold bandwagon for good. people are exhausted. especially gold mining investors. i truly believe gold will at some point move a bit higher, but it will leave jr. gold miners and most large cap miners no where near in valuation, and people will look back on this period as time of great ignorance for “gold bugs”, the term will be supplanted by something else, in order to denote a person who bought gold the metal and not a miner which is nothing more than a promise by a man in a nice suit holding an engineering degree and a hidden short position against his own firm.

    theres still lots of rich men at the PDAC each year despite their stocks doing nothing but go down for 4 years. theres still people ready to buy a story, just as sure as people need another prophet to tell them whats around the corner.

    remember, gold bugs follow a religion, not an investment thesis.

    bless Jim Sinclair, he has pure and noble intentions. i do not doubt his hope to see all of his readers benefit from gold. sadly he has been wrong and appears to be continuing as his daily chants that “this is it” peter out time and time again as gold fails to break a new high, and gold miners, especially his own company fall harder and lower. these men will not make anyone any money following this advice, yet JS minset as a website has probally millions of readers who hang off every word, his ability to make a prediction is completely removed from their accuracy, no matter how low gold goes and for how long people will still worship him and other gold guru’s while they loose money. this is religion.

    i wonder what they will say when gold moves below $900? its easy:

    1. manipulation
    2. its a short term thing, just a quick dip to shake loose hands
    3. its the final chance to buy gold before lift off
    4. what a great opportunity to buy short term weakness
    5. miners have never been a better value

    after a few months of this and heaven forbid a dip below $800, what will they say?

    1. manipulation
    2. its a short term thing, just a quick dip to shake loose hands
    3. its the final chance to buy gold before lift off
    4. what a great opportunity to buy short term weakness
    5. miners have never been a better value

    and perhaps mabey:

    1. we didnt realize the immensity of leveraged hedge fund positions, causing this downdraft, but we are confident its done with and will never happen again!!!

    wake up gang.

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 4:25 pm

      Hi, dr. cosa.

      There WILL be a parabolic move in gold prices, and we are nearing the blow off phase of the gold bull market. It went largely unnoticed by the public. However, this time I half believe a market corner is in order. No report in any suggestion in the papers that the oil market was a corner where everybody lost out, now we will have the same in gold.

      Large cap miners: There aren’t any gold companies that don’t mine mostly copper. Its called “gold equivalent ounces,” and they are used in lieu of any gold in the leasing scenario, and if I’m right, are used to swap against hedges which were supposedly written down. It could make a decline in the copper price especially nasty.

      South African miners, which don’t have a lot of gold left and certainly aren’t copper miners in the least are FORCED to increase production through acquisition. Arcane, isn’t it?

      Nobody looks at the weekly chart, and nobody sure as hell looks at the monthly chart, because they’re BORING. However, gold is holding at the 13-week EMA, and will not pass the 34-week EMA. Come fall, the seasonality for gold will kick in again, and I think this is when the market will rally very hard past old highs.

      Just on a lark, I made up a bank chart against a gold chart in Canadian dollars. That’s right, loonies. Its BORRR-ING, because its a weekly chart.

      Cripes, to be especially tortuous, I’m gonna start talking monthly charts and bore the crap out of everybody.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 5:06 pm

        Yes dr.cosa! There are a couple of questions taking shape here:

        1) Which way will the POG go over the course of the next couple months?
        2) Will the current S&P:gold trend continue? I remember hearing a chant from a couple months ago about how gold could outperform the S&P. Reality indicates the inverse is true.
        3) Did the rally really end in early 2008?

        It appears my thesis for preserving wealth has been taken to the woodshed, summarily shot full of holes, buried, exumed, and shot several times more. Well perhaps in the long run the incomprehensible double talk becomes reality (I’m keeping the faith here) but it sure would be nice to execute just one successful gold trade at some point between now and then….

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 4:28 pm

      “so next time you see an article about a nation like russia express concern for the US dollar ask yourself: if they are worried about the dollar, what alternative currency would they prefer that is large enough to accommodate a siesmic shift in a central banks FOREX position?”

      How about we ask ourselves about jawboning?
      If the FED or the Prez knows they can come out and jawbone the currency higher with just a speech, what makes us think OTHER world powers can’t do the same?

      With treasury auctions and a visit from the Chinese discussing $USD, why do we think it will go down when they are here to talk it up?
      So what happens, Treasuries go higher, the $USD goes higher, and the alternatives that none of these folks seems to be holding or want to go higher, go down. How many times will we see it before we get it?
      Some here got it last week and mentioned treasuries going higher into the auctions, the $USD strengthened oil/gold/slv all dropped and the market with high RSI-7’s started to correct. Like a Rolex…..

      Who mentioned VXX last week? A big thanks! I think it was bsi…
      Bought in the low 60’s sold today for 63.25
      Bought TLT at 90 and change, sold this AM at the open for 92.25

      Looking for additional entries on Bill’s afternoon strength/bounce call.

    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 4:34 pm

      I believe gold is just another trade – like everything else, buy low and sell high. ‘rinse and repeat’?

      After 1 year reading this blog every day, I think I finally am getting it!

      thanks dr. cosa for the reminder.

      I usually wait for Bill Cara to say when to buy. Sometimes you have to read his daily report to know.

      vb

    • cheapy(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 7:28 pm

      dr. cosa,

      I pretty much agree. I do disagree on the manipulation issue, as I do believe the gold market is completely manipulated by the central banks. Some might see that as a problem, but I see it as an opportunity to watch for their telltale signs and enter and exit in a profitable fashion, accumulating metal along the way.

      Eventually the manipulation will fail, but anyone foolish enough to predict when that will be gets what they deserve.

      I will accumulate when there is a panic. In the meantime I watch from the sidelines and wait for the dollar bounce to run its course.

      • FranSix(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 7:28 pm

        Hi, should be next Wednesday.

        • cheapy(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 8:11 pm

          fransix, What makes you think next wed?

          My first guess would be Aug options expiration…

  29. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 4:17 pm

    Unloaded USU at a hefty loss. Gonna leach off JL for a while to get some cash back.

    http://twitter.com/WeeklyTA

    Been watching his picks rise and fall today. Some great moves, both long – and when the daytraders bail – to short as well.

    See the need to be appropriately capitalised.

    off to the pool with the kids. GL

    • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 5:05 pm

      Les,

      Just wanted to give you an opinion on USU. I have some contacts that are directly involved in the uranium markets and from what I understand, USU is widely known to have very economically deficient technology for converting uranium for use in reactors.

      Apparently USU is very far behind in technological advancement (hence the need for constant DOE backing to even stay in business). Until now the DOE kept them afloat – apparently now the DOE (probably reacting to new budgetary cuts) is concerned about throwing money into the USU black hole.

      IMO, there is a legitimate possibility that USU could go bankrupt – I would tread carefully if you plan to trade this one again.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 7:36 pm

        Hey Billy, spent the morning reading exactly the same thing! I thought these guys were important and I could hold out a bit longer – you know, they have the monopoly on the “arms to atoms” deal with Russia – importing Red nukes and converting it to fuel.

        But it seems that a) the Russians wanna cut the middle man out, b)The Europeans and Japanese?? (or someone else) are making the same sort of Uranium enrichment plants on US territory that USU was begging for loan guarantees for and apparently they’ve been losers in business ever since they were spun off by that President from Arkansas in the 90’s.

        I bit the bullet and cut my losses.

        I tell you this training regime is expensive on the wallet, but I learn a lot about US industry in the process.

        night all.

        • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 8:25 pm

          Les,

          Sounds like you’ve been hittin’ the books on the uranium enrichment industry. Probably best in general to stay away from industries that rely on U.S. government support to fund their capital needs – unless we are talking about the financial industry of course!

          If you want to learn more about the uranium trade, I would suggest reading some quarterly filings for Cameco (CCJ) and BHP Billiton (BHP) which are the two largest producers. Uranium One (UUU.TO) and Paladin (PDN.TO) are two of the mid-tier producers. Also Exelon (EXC)which is the largest nuke power producer in the U.S. Also, AREVA, the French reactor builder, explorer, etc. I also know that Honeywell has some businesses related to production/storage. Can also look at the UXC or Tradetech websites (the two uranium indexes).

          I will forewarn that uranium is a very difficult industry to follow and most of the dealings take place in back rooms so very little transparency involved.

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 5:49 am

            Admittedly I won’t bother with further reading on the Uranium industry until Bill should mention something important – the market warming up again or something like that.

            I should have treated USU as a scalp. I recognise that looking for a sustainable recovery for a weak company (which I admittedly had not read up on before trading) in this market is not thinking clearly.

  30. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 4:29 pm

    Pitiful prose, pitiful pros.

    http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/07/half-empty-half

  31. Fox1(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 4:45 pm
  32. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 4:55 pm

    Dow shoots to 10,000… all the unemployed will be re-trained ( and besides, they are losers and don’t count anyway )… and, we Can compete with China and India…. why do I believe all of this… because # 1 ( and 2,3,4,5 ) say so, and that’s good enough for me… ** ps.. and it doesn’t matter if I am wrong, cause I am trading with OPM ( other people’s money )…. from: somewhere on Wall St.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 5:03 pm

      baz22- I’m more cynical. I think HB&B is driving this market up for the pure sadistic pleasure of killing off bearish bloggers.

  33. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    “Desperate Arizona may sell Capitol buildings!
    ‘We need the money’… “

    “NEW YORK (July 29) – New York City is buying one-way plane tickets for homeless families to leave the city.”

    Great country, huh?

    • FireFly(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 5:08 pm

      crazy huh??
      Desperate state Arizona may sell Capitol buildings
      http://bit.ly/xYNN2

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 5:09 pm

      “NEW YORK (July 29) – New York City is buying one-way plane tickets for homeless families to leave the city.”

      There we go again, NY exporting their best of the best. We know what to do with them when they arrive….

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 5:23 pm

        I keep waiting for inspiration, about how to trade this market, but inspiration never comes. It’s as though just sitting here watching the action day after day, week after week and year after year isn’t really making any of this any easier.

        Wishing to God my dad had made a sweet buck. But that wasn’t my dad. Life’s a “real hassle” isn’t it? You never get the family you really need:)

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 5:31 pm

          shark – “Life’s a “real hassle” isn’t it? You never get the family you really need:)”

          That’s messed up sharkie, my father borrowed from me regularly and never paid me back even though he was much better off than I. He claimed I owed him for raising me…

          Life is what you make of it.

        • baz22(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 5:37 pm

          you just have to trade with the ‘ crazies ‘, Sharkie….. In truth, there is really no need for a ‘ Market ‘…. what has ‘ the market ‘ ever really done for the average Joe ? Its just a global casino now, and no matter how many regulations are proposed or passed, nothing will change… The only way it will end is when ‘ someone throws the switch ‘…

  34. FireFly(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 5:12 pm
  35. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 5:13 pm

    Anyone have this back on the radar? It has been trending nicely since the recent earnings came out. Stock seems to be trending against the broad market weakness.

    I perused their earnings release and it appeared they were stealing a good bit of market share during the downturn. I also think they have the best platform (and best prices). I especcially like that their biz model relies on providing value added services and their motivations are aligned with that of their clientele (a revelating concept on Wall Street these days!).

    Don’t own any of the stock but bought some Sept 20 Calls a couple months back (some as low as $0.05!). Unloaded some at a nice profit – considering getting back into the stock if we get a pullback or just letting my few remaining calls ride if a pullback doesn’t materialize.

  36. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 5:24 pm
  37. David(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 5:25 pm

    NOT.V keeps moving up despite the company stating that there was “no material change” supporting the recent move in the stock price. I just sold at US$1.91 1000 shares of NOT.V that I purchased at US$1.94 in September 2008. The commodities are crashing for the second day now, the broad market is heavily overbought and is starting to move down as well. The Canadian dollar had quite a run recently that can easily be reversed now with falling commodities and a rising $USD. So, even though I didn’t make any money on this trade, I think getting out of it right now is justified by the circumstances.

  38. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 5:26 pm

    At mid day, of the top nine volume leaders on the NYSE, one is a $2 stock, two are $3 dollar stocks, one is at $4 and one at $7. Looks a bit like the Toronto Venture Board.

  39. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 5:45 pm

    “my father borrowed from me regularly and never paid me back even though he was much better off than I. He claimed I owed him for raising me…”

    Chicken, that’s really funny.

    BTW I didn’t trade today although the Yamana downgrade a few days back provided a nice short oppty.

    I did see an SQNM setup about 15 minutes into today’s session that I wasn’t folowing closely enuff but it worked out nice for those who did.

    Other than that this market is a great excuse to go fishing.

    And really all I was saying before is that, on average, it was one heck of a lot easier making money in the post war period than it has been in the past….oh, let’s say decade, although the general trend against the worker has been in place for a quarter century. You gotta understand…My best friends parents own thousands of apartments….One of my other good buds dad was a bigtime ad shop owner in the ’60’s and ’70’s…….My dad was a bum like me. Well, not exactly like me; I bring a thoroughness and an all-consuming dedication to doing nothing that my old man could have barely envisioned…..He at least possessed and adhered to the trappings of normality:) Hey why do they call them “trappings”, anyway?….Hmmmm.

    Anyway, you don’t make that kind of money in George Bush’s America anymore. And if you DO, shoot me an email and I’ll be on the next plane.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 6:26 pm

      sharkie – “Anyway, you don’t make that kind of money in George Bush’s America anymore. And if you DO, shoot me an email and I’ll be on the next plane.”

      You’re fairly well spoken, I suggest a career in politics. It helps if you convince yourself you can do no wrong when you’re spending public money. Convincing others is just a matter of selective disclosure and data massage.

  40. David(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 5:53 pm

    It looks like most people here (and elsewhere) are still so scared of the latest market rally that they expect a shallow pullback and then a continuation of this rally. These are all the ingredients that usually define a long-term market top (i.e., S&P might have already seen its high for the year and the pullback will morph into the next leg down).

    Just presenting a “contrarian” point of view…

    Naturally, I will be *acting* as if this is just a temporary pullback and will keep taking profits on all the short positions I opened on the way up as soon as decent profits materialize. My trading strategy is to take advantage of market fluctuations without requiring a certain trend to materialize in order to make money.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 6:31 pm

      David- A truly contrarian POV might be to park the portfolio in cash, spend your time researching homes in Hamilton (as well as the subject of real estate in general), and prepare to bid on foreclosures that may come up.

      • David(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 6:52 pm

        “David- A truly contrarian POV might be to park the portfolio in cash, spend your time researching homes in Hamilton (as well as the subject of real estate in general), and prepare to bid on foreclosures that may come up.”

        You mean contrarian to the view that we can win against HB&B? 🙂 If everyone does it, then it will be no fun for HB&B to fight against each other’s HFT models. 🙂

        This weekend I seriously thought about doing what you have suggested. It was the third time during my 3 years of trading when I was happy with my results and the thought of cashing out crossed my mind. The first time, when I was up by 30% after just 3 months of trading, I decided to stay with the market and ended up down 40% in 9 more months. The second time, I was up 70% after 2.5 of trading (in September 2008), and being weary of what happened to me the first time after I neglected the thought of cashing out when I was happy with my results, I spend more time thinking about it. However, when “bargains” began appearing in the market at the end of September, I couldn’t hold myself from scaling in, and one month later I was down 75% (down 40% relative to what I had started with initially).

        Right now, I am down about 15% relative to September 2008 (which means that I am up about 50% relative to what I had started with 3.5 years ago). Even though it doesn’t put me at an all-time high, I am still pretty happy considering how tough the market has been recently and the size of the hole I was able to dig myself from. Since my portfolio has a slight short bias now, I thought I would close my long equity positions if S&P breaches 1000 and then close all my shorts during the inevitable pullback from the recent highs. At that point, I’ll try to really restrain myself from buying any equities and will instead just keep selling puts on pure commodities: GLD, SLV, USO, UNG. Getting 5 to 10% per month by selling month-long puts is still much better than earning 2% annually in a bank. Let’s see if I’ll be able to stick with this determination this time and what impact it will have on my portfolio one year from now. At that point, I’ll start preparing for buying a house. As I mentioned before, 2011 would be a good time to buy, as the second wave of mortgage resets will be almost over at that point.

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 30, 2009 at 2:22 am

          “Right now, I am down about 15% relative to September 2008 (which means that I am up about 50% relative to what I had started with 3.5 years ago).”

          David- What is wrong with 50% in 3 1/2 years? That’s almost 15% a year compounded. I would take it. Cash out and not look back.

          I’m quite serious about the gambling. Does the market go up from here, or does it go down?

          My working theory, which is based (as always) on maximum frustration, is that we churn for several weeks. This will work off the current ‘overbought’ condition while simultaneously giving holders of ultralong/ultrashort ETFs a good case of erosion sickness. I honestly believe every last shred of profit potential will be fought over by the eager cockroaches that live beneath every trading station. Every roach for himself, and they’ll eat anything.

          Personally, I have great respect for roaches, a resilient species with few predators. On the other hand, few things give me more pleasure than stepping on one. From Wikipedia, the most effective predator is the wasp: “The wasp clips the antennae with its mandibles and drinks some of the hemolymph before walking backwards and dragging the roach by its clipped antennae to a burrow, where an egg will be laid upon it. The wasp larva feeds on the subdued, living cockroach.” Let’s take trading out of the dark (ages) and shine the light of day on transactions. I suppose being a wasp is OK, but it’s even better living in a house where you don’t have to cringe when turning on the lights.

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 2:35 am

            2nd- “On the other hand, few things give me more pleasure than stepping on one.” Perhaps the best approach to this problem was reveled in a famous scene from “Scarface”…Too graphic to post, but easy to find.

          • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 2:47 am

            2nd said

            “Right now, I am down about 15% relative to September 2008 (which means that I am up about 50% relative to what I had started with 3.5 years ago).”

            2nd,

            If you are working (and I think you are lucky to go to have a weekly paycheck like me.. It is okay).

            My concern, are the elderly and retired people and the unemployed who have to gamble every day to protect their capital in order to buy groceries.

            yep, time to wake up america

            🙁

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 3:01 am

            “2nd said “Right now, I am down about 15% relative to September 2008 (which means that I am up about 50% relative to what I had started with 3.5 years ago).”

            Just so it’s clear- I was citing David’s comments when I posted that. He’s the one who’s up 50% over 3 1/2 years.

          • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 3:05 am

            Just so it’s clear- I was citing David’s comments when I posted that. He’s the one who’s up 50% over 3 1/2 years.

            2nd,

            oh, sorry, misunderstood that.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 3:09 am

            I’ll let it slide this time. (Just kidding. Relative to September 2008, I’m actually down further than David.)

  41. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:04 pm

    “Some car shoppers are finding that their trade-in vehicles, which qualified for a Cash for Clunkers rebate last week, don’t this week because of changes in the EPA’s fuel economy ratings.

    In some cases, car buyers say, dealers are backing out of sales they’ve already made because the EPA changed the fuel economy figures on their trade-in.”

    hee, hee, you can’t trade on any news. No wonder gold is down, the USG is pulling back on the reins..

  42. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:07 pm

    since June 15 at jaso… fwiw

  43. yvrapx(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:13 pm

    Haven’t seen him post in a few weeks.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 6:21 pm

      I asked the same question a few days ago. I think he’s on vacation, maybe at his place near the Cape. (If he’s not on vacation, then I’m a little worried.)

  44. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:15 pm

    10 pm – 2 am pacific

    The Federal Reserve

    Writer and documentary film producer G. Edward Griffin will explain how the Federal Reserve System is primarily responsible for our economic crisis. Mr. Griffin will discuss little known facts about the secret meeting where the Fed was created, the reasons for the secrecy, and the surprising reality of the Fed’s structure and purpose.

    • Otis(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 7:10 pm

      Shark, do those interviews get posted to listen to after the fact?

      I used utorrent a while ago to download an hour long speach Griffin gave after he released The Creature from Jekyll Island – A Second Look at the Federal Reserve. Below is a link to his speach through google where he summerizes his book and findings. Speach is from 11/1994 in LA. If is a little over an hour and definitely worth a listen.

      http://tinyurl.com/2mz7hd

  45. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:23 pm

    You give it all back. All buy-and-holders gave back what was it, 15-40 years of gains (1995 by one measure, back to 1966 by another) at one point ?

    I’m truly gambling at this point.

    So here’s my take-

    (a) I have no business gambling with retirement accounts.
    (b) I can’t honestly ‘invest’ in the market at SPX 980.
    (c) I could short. But look at what’s happened to the shorts. They may be ‘right,’ but (not unlike drivers who insist on the right-of-way at the intersection) many of them are also dead.

    (d) I could short once the down trend begins in earnest. I’ll hold on to that possibility.
    (e) I could wait until the market corrects to (what I might consider) an ‘investable’ level.
    (f) I could put my money to use elsewhere.

    Following the markets consumes a great deal of my time each day. Think I’ll step aside and check back in at (d) and (e). I can use the time researching (f). Maybe I’ll even fly down to Vegas to play for better odds.

    • Hammer1(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 6:51 pm

      I agree 2nd, I still have a small position in the QID…rest in cash. Been watching the paint dry in the last few weeks. I just can’t get myself to buy in at these levels after the run we’ve had. Going short doesn’t feel right either. Some kind of collusion is going on in this market. Seems it is being artificially held up.

      Anyone having success trading this market over the last few weeks besides the HB&B?

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 6:53 pm

      2nd – You’ve pretty much summarized my thoughts exactly, I’ve been looking at real estate again as well, it’s something I can see and touch. Just can’t afford to loose any capital goofing around in equities markets or gold (the learning curve is too steep and nobody seems to know enough about them to make competent decisions) when I see real estate prices coming back to me.

      Looking at beach area teardowns and empty lots, they’re out there and growing. Hey, maybe a coin-op car wash or two?

    • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 6:58 pm

      Very good points. After 27 years of dealing with the markets, I think constantly playing defense is the best way to survive and keep your portfolio from being ripped to shreds. In doing this you give up maximum gains, but so what.

      I’m seriously thinking of moving to Panama, for a lower cost of living. Anybody on this site ever been there and what are your thoughts?

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 7:09 pm

        Panama is good but you might want to check out Costa Rica as well. PS I have a Great Dentist in Costa Rica – Dr. Luis Kaver Fastag – google him and tell him I said hi if you go!

        • bobj(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 7:21 pm

          Spent some time in Panama a year ago and have been to Costa Rica twice. I love Costa Rica but think the cost of living/taxation is maybe better in Panama. Enjoyed Panama — it is more ‘American’, but I like the people and diversity of Costa Rica better.

      • westcoaster(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 8:43 pm

        I’ve read good things when I was looking thru International Living website. There are a lot of ex-pats who congregate there who could give you some idea. A friend moved there and raved about low cost of living, good people etc. He was able to afford domestic help reasonably to support a big house he rented. He was importing from China and distributing to retailers in panama and honduras. He seemed happy, then he got robbed and threatened one day, it scared the hell out of him and he came home. That could happen anywhere tho’.

        • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
          July 29, 2009 at 9:05 pm

          Thought I’d chime in on the Central America talk. I haven’t been to Panama yet but I did vacation in both Costa Rica and Nicaragua in the last few years and enjoyed them immensely. Have heard excellent things about Panama, especially the San Blas chain of islands as well as the Bocas del Toro (which is just a stones through from Costa Rica).

          Choices on permanent move will probably have to factor in costs of living, which are considerably higher (from my understanding) in Costa Rica than Panama, and both are more expensive than Nicaragua. On the other hand CR has a stable government and likely more advanced health facilities outside of the big city, so access to health care is also an issue.

          Interesting to note regarding money: I spent two weeks in Costa Rica and not once purchased local currency or was ever asked for it or received it in change – even in some more out of the way places. ATMs there gave me the option of local or U.S. cash. However, in Nicaragua, the preference was always for local currency. If you want to pay in U.S. dollars, they had to be perfect, no knicks, scratches, or marks. From what I understood from talking to some expats living there is that the currency hasn’t been exploited in Nicaragua like it has in Costa Rica (perhaps due to less globally financed industrial projects?).

          • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 12:06 am

            Thanks to all.

    • JesseSLC(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 7:03 pm

      Of the 3 choices Bill suggested, IMO, bullion is by far the best. If we are truly entering a “K-wave” winter (the bad part of the 80 yr. cycle) then it may be a long time before real estate values rise again. In addition, as someone mentioned, I think property taxes are a huge unknown. I believe multiple people here have mentioned that their property value went down and property taxes went up. Also, the news link today about Arizona possibly selling the capitol building. States are hurting and one of their best sources of revenue is property tax. That’s like fighting HB&B when they don’t have to bribe politicians, because they are the politicians. Seriously, there seems to be no doubt in Bill’s mind that gold will go to “$1500, then $2000, then $2500. That is better than doubling your money with no counterparty risk. Something to consider, I think.

  46. szoya(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:40 pm

    Reuters
    via Forbes.com
    Wednesday, July 29, 2009
    http://www.forbes.com/feeds/reuters/…164243Z_01_N29…
    WASHINGTON — The planned sale of 400 tonnes of IMF gold would take place within a new central bank gold sales agreement being negotiated, a senior International Monetary Fund official said Wednesday.
    The IMF has provisionally agreed to sell the gold to raise resources for increased lending to poor countries. A final decision by all 186 IMF member countries on the sales is expected by IMF meetings in Istanbul in October and requires the support of 85 percent of the membership.
    “We have committed as part of our new income model to have that gold sale, if done on the markets, to be done through the central bank sales mechanism,” said Reza Moghadam, director of the IMF’s Strategy, Policy and Review Department.
    Moghadam told a conference call the sales would take place through the central bank mechanism “all the time” and could take two to three years.
    He said he hoped negotiations on the new Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement will also be finalized by October. The current five-year agreement expires in September.
    The IMF said on Wednesday it would use some of the proceeds from the sale of IMF gold to increase lending to poor countries by up to $17 billion through 2014.
    The IMF holds 103.4 million ounces (3,217 tonnes) of gold, which had a market value of about $12 billion as of March 31.

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 7:17 pm

      Um, the gold isn’t being sold, exactly. Its being offered up for gold leases, so that interest rate derivatives held against gold leases can be underwritten. 400T of gold provides some untold amount in notional value, something like a trillion dollars to the commercial banking sector.

      ‘Lending to poor countries’ really actually means they get a pittance while the commercial banking sector gets propped up by vending the public trust. That gold actually belongs to some hapless central bank which once owned it and had to forfeit the gold because they were idiotic enough to allow it to underwrite an expansion of the derivatives market.

      The gold inevitably get swapped out, while the liquidity is used to parry in the commodities, as we have seen, but also to buy up quantities of government bonds without having to print any money, just expanding the leger.

      But if this gold was already leased once before in a bid to expand liquidity, then its already spoken for and owed to some central bank or banks.

      The fly in the ointment is physical delivery. If there are restrictions on positions in trade and borrowing against gold, and there is some risk towards a currency devaluation somewhere in the G7, then very likely this will force traders to take delivery without any leverage and limited options.

      Its all becoming very less than boring.

      Oh, abolish the Fed. Its like, um, boring and arcane and stuff.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 8:30 pm

        FranSix – I have been around here for a while, and I have NO CLUE what you just said! I don’t get it!

        How is gold leasing used as the basis for interest rate derivatives? What sort of derivative? Could you give me a concrete example? It’s not that I don’t believe you, I just can’t wrap my brain around what you just said. 🙂

        Could you provide some chain of events that starts with “A central bank has some gold, and then…”

        Along with payments and who makes money at each step along the way, etc.

        Clearly you think something interesting is going on, but for the life of me, I can’t follow along!

  47. jturner(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:44 pm

    Surprised to see the gold price down again today, as shown by Gold Price

  48. jturner(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:45 pm

    Surprised to see the gold price down again today, as shown by Gold Price

  49. gademsky(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:47 pm
  50. Grym(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:50 pm

    Anyone who has read George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four will find this article particularly ironic.

    The implications of what we may possibly get if printed material continues to give way to on-line news and even fiction such as this book are just plain scary.

    Goebels would have loved it.

    ————
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2009/jul/26/amazon

    The original Big Brother is watching you on Amazon Kindle

  51. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 6:51 pm

    Or as Eric Cartman says, “Screw you guys, I’m going home.”

    Hard to argue with.
    I’ve been almost 100% cash except a few second by second day trades for lunch money. “Screw you guys, I’m going home” fits. i can make way more money doing something constructive.

    I usually hold one position LT, CHSCP (Cenex) and last time it started flashing me the finger we corrected back to below 880, and it started giving me the finger again today. Screw em’ I’m now 100% cash and they can go F themselves.

    Let GS diddle itself for a while and see if they can circle jerk themselves a whopping profit next quarter trading against themselves. Me? Just call me Cartman.

  52. David(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 7:09 pm
  53. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 7:24 pm

    I just sold it all. Enough with the games, no telling where it’s going from here and I don’t care anymore.

  54. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 7:31 pm

    Just sold WNR/OCNF/FTWR, I’m going to start looking into foreclosures there should be some deals coming my way. Didn’t make squat on the markets in the last year and a half…

    Good luck to all!

  55. David(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 7:54 pm

    I don’t know what will happen tomorrow, but the late day buying we are seeing now is consistent with everyone being scared of this rally and shorts covering as soon as they see a tiny profit and final longs buying on the slightest pullback. It may be a sign of a strong buying interest that will take this market much higher, but it is also very consistent with the beginning of the next leg down, when the market drops slowly initially because people are still viewing every drop as a buying opportunity.

  56. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 7:55 pm

    Mark – I bought a few ITM puts on COF just now at $1.80 ($30 puts Aug exp).

  57. FireFly(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 8:21 pm
  58. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 8:21 pm

    http://video.yahoo.com/watch/4339198/11652028

    Everybody’s goin’ away
    Said they’re movin’ to LA
    There’s not a soul I know around
    Everybody’s leavin’ town

    Some caught a freight, some caught a plane
    Find the sunshine, leave the rain
    They said this town’s a waste of time
    I guess they’re right, it’s wastin’ mine,
    Some gotta win, some gotta lose
    Good time Charlie’s got the blues
    Good time Charlie’s got the blues

    Ya know my heart keeps tellin’ me
    “You’re not a kid at thirty-three”
    “Ya play around, ya lose your wife”
    “Ya play too long, you lose your life”

    I got my pills to ease the pain
    Can’t find a thing to ease the rain
    I’d love to try and settle down
    But everybody’s leavin’ town

    Some gotta win, some gotta lose
    Good time Charlie’s got the blues
    Good time Charlie’s got the blues
    Good time Charlie’s got the blues

  59. mbernold(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 8:23 pm
  60. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 8:38 pm

    From FAIR Canada website:

    In the stock market, you can take certain things for granted.

    You know what you are buying. You can see the bid-ask spread. You know what it will cost to buy it. And, day-in and day-out, you can see what other people are paying for it.

    In the bond market, you generally don’t know any of these things and you can’t find out. And you have been kept in the dark for too long.

    It’s time to set up a bond exchange in this country where investors will benefit from live buy and sell offers, best execution and immediate reporting of trades.

    The fixed income market is increasingly central to Canadians. Always important to older retail investors, pension funds and life insurance companies, bonds have regained a more prominent role after the crash in worldwide equity markets.

    Canadian retail investors buying or selling money market instruments or bonds in the over-the-counter market have the right to know that they are getting the best available price and paying a fair commission – just like those transacting in shares on an exchange. The traditional “trust us” response of the financial services industry is not adequate in the vastly changed investing landscape of 2009.

    The fixed income market is huge, complex, and not transparent
    The fixed income market is huge. At May 31, 2009 there were $1.5 trillion in outstanding bonds and related instruments, and another $358 billion in the money market (terms up to one year). It’s bigger than the total capitalization of Canadian equity markets at $1.5 trillion.

    The market is complex, ranging from Government treasury bills and commercial paper to corporate and provincial bonds, repos and securitizations. Prices vary by type, rating, duration, liquidity, size of order, and 16 other factors. Less liquid provincial and corporate bonds can go months without a trade.

    And the market is not transparent. There is no central exchange for fixed income instruments. Transactions are not reported on a systematic basis. Commercial information providers show indicative bids and offers. Prices for benchmark Government issues and some corporate bonds are covered in the press and on web sites.

    Retail investors are not well served
    There are only 12 primary dealers in Canadian Government bonds. The market is dominated by the Big 6 banks.

    We don’t know how many retail investors are deterred from investing in fixed income securities by the lack of information. When a broker suggests that an investor purchase a bond, no negotiation takes place. In almost all cases the customer and her broker are captives of the dealer’s trading desk.

    Retail activity is concentrated in the smaller issues and structured products that offer higher yields and commissions to their sponsors. Many retail investors are pushed into bond mutual funds that promise to decode this arcane market for them – at an average cost (MER) of 1.9%. With short term rates near 0% and longer-term rates of 2.5% to 4%, this is a near-guaranteed formula for most mutual fund bond investors to under-perform. The rapidly-growing bond Exchange Traded Fund sector offers much lower fees.

    Most on-line dealers offer a varied assortment of bonds, catering to the increasingly popular do-it-yourself segment. Despite their greater knowledge, however, these DIY-ers remain vulnerable to lack of disclosure about commissions and spreads.

    Obstacles to an exchange
    Bonds have traded over-the-counter (OTC) since the dawn of recorded financial history. No major international market has forced all bonds to trade on an exchange. Defenders of the current Canadian system claim that it has met the needs of corporate issuers and institutional buyers, while also serving individual investors. They warn of higher costs and technical difficulties each time changes are proposed.

    But the technical difficulties hardly seem insurmountable if convertible debentures already trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It is hard to avoid the suspicion that the case against a bond exchange serves mostly to protect the lucrative dominance of the fixed income market by Canada’s powerful banks.

    IIROC has proposed some good first steps
    The Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada has proposed new rules governing fixed income and other OTC securities that should hopefully be implemented soon. The rules require investment dealers to fairly and reasonably price OTC securities; to disclose the yield to maturity of fixed income instruments; and to include a statement that “remuneration has been added to the price in case of a purchase.”

    IIROC’s steps towards greater disclosure and stronger investor protection are positive. Until Canada attains complete transparency with debt securities trading on an exchange, such protective steps are necessary. Surveillance and enforcement are even more important, to ensure that those who violate the rules receive meaningful deterrent punishments.

    Conclusion: a bond exchange would shed light

    As US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis said, “Sunlight is the best disinfectant and electric light the most efficient policeman.” Total transparency builds investor trust. Yet the fixed income and over-the-counter markets still operate in near complete darkness.

    Moving to a fully transparent bond market with bid and ask prices and trade reporting could attract more participants, provide greater liquidity and reduce spreads. It would assure the fair treatment of all investors and improve market efficiencies.

    This article was published in the Globe and Mail’s Report on Business on Tuesday, July 28.

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 11:19 pm

      Hi, Bill

      The Canadian media is a gallery for tempests in a teapot. The truth is that the only players in sovereign bonds in Canada are the commercial banking sector, and that means Wall St.

      Its also true that in Canada the retail investor cannot get a bid for their bond purchase, and that dealers have the monopoly.

      But when it becomes a full on issue in the paper, that means that the government bond sector is facing a rout, and they wish to pass off every last piece of scrip to the retail and mutual fund investor possible.

      The reasons are clear. Canada does not have a large bond market. Thus it is thrown into the same basket as emerging markets.

      So very likely the Canadian bond market is facing a default. But, truth be known, hedge funds actually like Canadian sovereign debt and keep on buying, which keep sovereign debt prices buoyed somewhat. With the decline in the loonie, that means that bond yields aught to be advancing precipitously, but they haven’t.

      Its in anticipation of a sovereign bond price collapse that this situation has arisen.

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        July 29, 2009 at 11:39 pm

        Wow, Fran. That’s just WAY over the top. Of all the sovereigns on the planet, I think you can rest assured that Canada is pretty solid investment grade. Don’t confuse our equity markets – which ARE a bit like Emerging markets – with our domestic economy which is considerably more…stoic.

        added: “With the decline in the loonie”… What decline are you talking about? the minor decline off the top of the last 2 days? Or the decline off the Nov ’07 top? Fact is, since the Mar low, Loonie has been the strongest currency on the planet (next to Australia):

        http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?FXC,FXE:FXC,FXY:FXC,FXA:FXC,FXB:FXC,FXF:FXC,FXM:FXC,FXS:FXC|D|B60

      • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
        July 30, 2009 at 2:10 am

        FranSix, it’s a bevy of black swans, which is why I am like 10% invested.

  61. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 9:01 pm

    The biggest news was, the 5 year auction had a bid to cover ratio of 1.93.

    Primary Dealers bid 57B accepted 24B
    Indirect Bidders bid 17B accepted 14B

    This means primary dealers took down 61% and indirect bidders 37%.

    Sorry I was late on the report – I’m in Paris right now and I was having a picnic at Versailles. I just had to say that. 🙂

    Here’s what econoday had to say:

    Very weak are the results of today’s 5-year auction, much weaker than yesterday’s soft 2-year auction. Coverage was less than two at 1.92 while the high yield of 2.689 percent was 5-1/2 basis points above expectations. Indirect bidding was very weak at 37 percent vs. 63 percent in the June auction, meaning that dealers are stuck with the supply. The results will raise talk that the demand for the endless run of Treasury auctions is finally softening. Treasuries weakened in immediate reaction to the results. The Treasury auctions $28 billion of 7-year notes tomorrow.

    • radix023(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 10:01 pm

      Some good info on the ‘tail’ of this 5 year and yesterday’s 2 year auction from acrossthecurve:
      http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=7422

      Tomorrow’s 7 year will be one to watch.

    • radix023(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 10:39 am

      Saw this on Denninger:
      http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1267-U

      Basically he’s saying that since primary dealers are required to buy, that’s the only reason bid to cover was greater than one.

      And I found this at the New York Fed:
      As in the past, all primary dealers will be expected to (1) make reasonably good markets in their trading relationships with the Fed’s trading desk; (2) participate meaningfully in Treasury auctions and; (3) provide the trading desk with market information and analysis that may be useful to the Federal Reserve in the formulation and implementation of monetary policy.

      from:
      http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_polic

      (I’m a Reagan baby: Trust but verify!)

      If this narrative is correct, then the primary dealers are holding paper they were required to buy but can’t sell. I would expect bids to get much lower, raising yield and/or primary dealers to exit their relationship with the Treasury.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        July 30, 2009 at 11:14 am

        I dunno. Primary dealers may be required to bid, but they aren’t required to provide charity. My guess is when indirect bidders get 100% of what they bid (its close to that right now), and the interest rate is substantially higher than expected for a given auction, and the primary dealer bids equal the amount of treasuries offered, then my guess is that’s the signal that the primary dealers are only providing stink bids.

        The primary dealers can also protect themselves by going short treasuries prior to the auction and then covering with what they pick up at auction. So if we see treasuries sink before each auction, and they don’t rally substantially afterwards, then that is another sign that the end of the road is approaching.

        I notice gold & oil is rising this morning, along with TBT, and the dollar is falling once again. I wonder if the Fed will step in and support the buck to stem the tide one last time and tank the market at the open – there aren’t any serious auctions scheduled for another few weeks. I’m not going to bet on the outcome, but after the auction, I’m now thinking the buck goes down.

  62. bigmother(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 9:43 pm

    I live in MA, the home of Ted Kennedy and the first and only state to require its residence to have health insurance. Today on CNBC the current state treasurer, Tim Cahill was on answering questions on the state plan. It is very close to what is being proposed in Washington right now. If you don’t get coverage you have to pay a penalty. If you are a business and don’t cover your employees you pay a penalty.If you can’t afford to buy the insurance the state has a plan that you can work through that offers “low cost” and in some cases, “no cost” plans. The plan when originally passed was close to budget neutral or so it was advertised. Now this is the info from the Treasurer. It is costing the state so much that they are going to have to change it. Not maybe, but must. One consideration is to eliminate coverage for LEGAL (not illegal) immigrants. The fee’s will go up along with the penalties. I am saving the best for last. There was a survey in the state and the overall response to the insurance requirements were negative. The lower income groups were the most dissatisfied overall. The higher end of the income ladder had the highest rate. No why? Because it didn’t effect most of them. Most had good jobs with company health care. The group the plan was intended to “help” had the lowest rating. This is the model of what is coming our way.

  63. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 10:02 pm

    I just crunched some numbers to see the the ^HSI had rebounded 93.55% from a low of 10,676.30 to a high earlier this week of 20,664.48. This is roughly the area where the waterfall decline began in September 2008.

    Does anyone here have that list of the largest rallies during the Great Depression handy? Would be interesting to see how this rally compares to rallies in the U.S. during the 30’s.

    I must also say that the ^HSI looks very extended on this full retrace and makes me concerned that now that the retrace is complete that we are at much larger risk of a repeat of another waterfall decline.

    Also not liking the action in PMs one bit……..GDX sitting on top of 100 DMA at close. If the $USD rally is sustained, I’ll be looking for GDX 200 DMA (currently in mid-$32 range) and $870 physical.

    • JesseSLC(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 1:23 am
      • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
        July 30, 2009 at 3:40 am

        Jesse

        I definetly agree that GDX is in a defineable uptrend. The charts are also telling me that it could be vulnerable to a retest of the low $30s level while still maintaining its general bullish trend.

        Luckily I evacuated a large portion of the gold fund EKWYX that I hold and have swappied about 75% of full allocation into a core bond fund to bide time, which has worked well so far for me in this trend. My plan now is to watch the general market/$USD action as I think miners are generally correlating more tightly with overall conditions than during the run to gold $980 a couple months back. I do think that pullback to low $30s in GDX could represent a nice buying opportunity but I need to see the market paint a clearer trend of $USD direction. I am looking to swap a portion back out of bonds and into miners if we test the 200 DMA on GDX.

        To summarize, I feel less certain of direction on PMs than I have been in the last 6 months and one of my rules is to take a step back when I don’t have enough clarity of the situation.

        Good luck with the UAUA – who knows they could be acquired or have a nice moonshot that lets you get out of the 2011 puts for a shiny nickel, maybe even in time for this season – I hear El Nino winters can leave the Rockies with some nice pow!

        Intraday reversal in progress on the Hang Seng…..

  64. David(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 10:49 pm

    It looks like Euro just made a third lower high against JPY, as shown in http://www.x-rates.com/d/JPY/EUR/graph120.html. In the past, falling EUR:JPY has always coincided with a falling stock market and an increasing risk aversion. The takedown of commodities today is also something that does not happen during an optimistic phase of the market — looks like the big players are moving out of the high-risk plays. Remember Bill saying that gold will be the last one to leave the dance floor? Maybe the music has already stopped and HB&B has been stealthily moving for the exits since last Friday, “distributing” their holdings to the unsuspecting public at a medium-term (or even a long-term) market top.

    On the same topic, David Rosenberg presented a chart this morning that showed a VERY close correlation between consumer confidence and S&P 500 for the last 10 years. So the fact that consumer confidence fell in July (as was announced last Friday) for a second month in a row is consistent with last Thursday being a “blow-off top” in the market and Friday being the beginning of the next leg down.

    Of course, the market can make a small increase tomorrow just to spook the early shorts, but the longer-term downtrend might already be shaping up…

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 11:14 pm

      David,

      You posted this just as I was firing-up to make a post re: Yen/Japan markets. I wish I had more experience/expertise to express what I’m seeing. I feel like Eisenhower during the first difficult month of the D-Day invasion of Normandy:

      “He’s like a blind dog in a meat house. He can smell it but cant’ find it.”

      I don’t see it as such a sinister HB&B plot to saddle Ma&Pa with the empty bag. I’m starting to wonder if we aren’t just witnessing a sensible market/currency rotation, over the last week or so, within the greater context of a global economic healing process. I’ve got charts of the risk plays, the crosses, and the various markets involved but I don’t feel like organizing them into a post. With my summer holiday due to end within the next two weeks, I feel like taking a walk in the Conservation Area that’s right outside my window 🙂

      And Les, I think I’m right in saying that Bill has considerably downgraded his upside blowoff potential in Gold to $1100-$1200, IF that play is even still on…

      • David(118083 comments)-
        July 30, 2009 at 12:06 am

        “I’m starting to wonder if we aren’t just witnessing a sensible market/currency rotation, over the last week or so, within the greater context of a global economic healing process.”

        Mackinaw, so what do you think HB&B is rotating into right now as their bet on the economic recovery?

        • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
          July 30, 2009 at 12:33 am

          Industrials, hence Japan and Germany? I’m not sure yet. Something in the Developed markets is catching the bids.

          added: Just checked and found this:

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXI&p=W&b=3&g=0&i

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 1:40 am

            Mac- XLI failed the 200dma in early June. Right back there now, but a buck less. The next few days should be interesting.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 30, 2009 at 6:40 am
        • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
          July 30, 2009 at 10:35 am

          Mack said “And Les, I think I’m right in saying that Bill has considerably downgraded his upside blowoff potential in Gold to $1100-$1200…”

          Please quote where Bill wrote any of that.

          If you refer to my commentary in this way, be accurate and use quotes. Otherwise, please don’t do it.

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 11:01 am

            Bill said:> “If you refer to my commentary in this way, be accurate and use quotes. Otherwise, please don’t do it.”

            Bill, I remember you speaking of gold in a deflationary period. For my life I cannot remember what day that was, except that it was recent.

            In resourcing your comments that are archived, is there any manner that we could create a database of your comments and daily reports, that we could search through with the use of key words?

            Say I can input “deflationary” and come up with the archived reference required. Would this be possible, especially given that as the years roll by there’s more and more information at our disposal/requiring more effective retrieval techniques?

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 11:20 am

            Les- Try this:

            (a) Find one of Bill’s posts, and click on ‘Bill Cara.’
            (b) Click on ‘Comments.’
            (c) Ctrl-F to open the search box.
            (d) Type in ‘deflationary.’
            (e) Which gave me this-

            “07/28/2009 – 08:53 cp, in the Great Reflation play, there is a lag between the printing of money and the production of real wealth. In the interim, the money has to go somewhere, and that is into real things like gold and other metals, oil, paper and forest products, chemicals and so forth. During the deflationary 1930’s, gold was the top performing asset class. That’s why I am a bit over-weighted today in precious metals and vastly under-weighted in most sectors. With some more stability to prices, I’d be more heavily invested. But the risks are just too great. When you see a (cash flow stable) Microsoft drop -10% in a day or a McDonald’s -5%, how can anybody commit 100% of their capital to such a market environment. I know I cannot.”

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 11:32 am

            Bill has (to my memory) two gold predictions: one short term and one medium term.

            The short term prediction was for one last move of gold through 1000, possibly up to 1100, before the overall market tanks and retests the March lows.

            The longer term prediction, based on the Great Reflation trade, is a move in the medium term timeframe of gold to $1500 – $2500.

          • cheapy(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 11:33 am

            “When you see a (cash flow stable) Microsoft drop -10% in a day or a McDonald’s -5%, how can anybody commit 100% of their capital to such a market environment. I know I cannot.”

            I thought real hard about that comment of Bill’s, too. I came to the conclusion that if the best companies on the planet were too risky to invest in, then I had no business keeping my hard earned money on the line, either, especially in the risky things I tend to go for.

            A good wake up call, IMO…

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 11:35 am

            ah of course, the browser comes equipped with a search function. Can we look through months of comments on a single page? Will look. Thanks.

  65. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 11:00 pm

    Reminder: 2x oil down in $Cdn

  66. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 11:17 pm

    ABV, INFY, RY Triple RSI sell signals.

    FD: No position, long or short.

  67. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 11:20 pm

    This week had some pretty big bond auctions, and and perhaps not coincidentally we have had a two day rally in the buck, and that probably caused gold and oil to hit the skids. Perhaps traders were set up for the buck to break below support at 78 and when it didn’t, they blew out of their “short dollar” commodity trades in a hurry.

    Something to note. Bill was very accurate with his prediction on oil rebounding to the 60-75 level, with the timeframe being “sometime this year.” Oil rallied to 73, and has reversed almost back down to 62.50. If you had just gone long oil at 37 when he made his prediction and sold at 67.5 (halfway into Bill’s target range) you’d be in cash after a 100% gain.

    We know he’s also predicting gold at $1500 – $2000, but with a slightly more vague timeframe. How does it get there? Dollar collapse, bond market failure, COMEX default – ultimately, who knows. But from what I have seen, Bill is seldom wrong on his longer term predictions.

    Is gold a good buy now? Certainly, its a better buy than it was three days ago. Something seriously unpleasant has to happen for gold to get to 1500. What will it be? Who knows. But the goal of HB&B is to get everyone else shaken out before this happens, so that they can make the lion’s share of the money on the move.

    How about oil? Think it will stay in Bill’s trading range, regardless of all the news articles about oversupply, etc? Support looks pretty firm at 60, and the RSI will be sub-30 if it gets there soon – and with that maribozu it printed today, it’s probably likely to see some more downward movement, so we should get to sub-30 RSI shortly.

    For reversal timing, remember the last of the big bond auctions is tomorrow. The Fed doesn’t need the buck to rally after this. Now that the commodity longs have been shaken out during this Big Bond Week, now maybe we will see the buck move briskly down through the 78 level, taking gold up to Bill’s near-term target of 1100, and oil back up to the top of the trading range of 75.

    Basically I’m suggesting to all you “nattering nabobs of negativity” (*) to stay in there looking for your long setups on what Bill has seen coming down the pike.

    [apologies if that offends – I just have always wanted to use that phrase in a sentence]

    (*) one of many colorful phrases uttered by Spiro T. Agnew

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      July 29, 2009 at 11:24 pm

      One would wait for the first week of August before scalping the low in gold.

      Target is $1300., but considering the nature of gold, then set it to $1650 for a blow-off peak. The bull market has had a run of nine years, there has to be at least some of that left into the next year, if not two.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 6:14 am

      I see France has put you in a perky mood Davef 🙂

      Dunno about sudden reversal. Looking through the economic calender of Econoday’s the auctions keep on rolling out week after week.

      Admittedly looking a little less important in the future compared with this week. I’d hazard the guess though that with little volume offering little resistance in the S&P above present levels that a period of consolidation will be followed by further upwards movement.

      Not sure if gold and the markets will be permitted to move strongly together.

      Still, happy to see the POG tanking a little while consolidation occurs. Helps us to reload the PM miners at a better price.

  68. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    July 29, 2009 at 11:21 pm

    I have the companies that represent 50% of the SP 500 market cap in a RSI scan.

    WYE Triple RSI sell signal
    AMGN distribution zone.

    No position

  69. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 12:08 am

    “It’s All Relative”, could be the title…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OldToIF5ZGs&feature

  70. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 2:22 am

    Since alot of Bill Cara’s friends are Canadian, maybe our Canadian friends can offer some advice

    Is Canada an option to Americans wanting out?

    How does Canada compare to Panama, Costa Rica or Denmark?

    I heard great things about Vancouver AND have a God child in Quebec.

    Maybe a good discussion !

    vb

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 2:41 am

      vb- If you like the Bay Area, you’ll like Vancouver. And if you like Lake Tahoe, you’ll like Whistler.

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        July 30, 2009 at 2:58 am

        vb- If you like the Bay Area, you’ll like Vancouver. And if you like Lake Tahoe, you’ll like Whistler.

        2nd
        I read alot about Whistler and yes it sounds great. I got hung up on the citizenship thing –

        Anyone want to marry me?

        LOL – Buyer Beware!

        vb

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 30, 2009 at 2:58 am

          Well I would think it depends on the bid/ask.

          • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
            July 30, 2009 at 3:03 am

            2nd

            yeah, some things never change. It always comes down money doesn’t it?

            vb

  71. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 2:53 am
    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 3:41 am

      Interesting table. My concern would be that (Financial) Trivial Pursuit comes out with a new card next year. ‘What significance can be attached to the following series? 1932, 1939, 1978, 2009.’ Even worse, ‘Which Dow Signal failure is second only to the one that occurred in 2009?’

  72. EastBay(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 3:00 am

    Chickenpookie’s comment today:
    “It appears my thesis for preserving wealth has been taken to the woodshed, summarily shot full of holes, buried, exumed, and shot several times more.”
    LOL Thanks for the laugh.

  73. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 3:19 am

    .. there is good daily volume,( allowing an out when needed )… there have been two minor support areas ( I do not reference exact prices on any site anymore… don’t trust prying eyes.. suffice, its not far from todays price )…. gbg

    • ChrisM(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 5:18 am

      Nice press release today – new high grade veins in their Nevada property. Still needs to come down a few pennies, so probably won’t 🙁

  74. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 3:31 am

    ‘ new vicl ‘ ( damn that sounds stupid… and actually is because this company’s technology attacks the parts of a virus that can’t mutate… kinda like when a person puts on colored contacts… the iris doesn’t change )… anyway, anything is a risk, but the thing to consider is the ramp of the H1N1 virus is occuring in Warm weather, and the vaccines from the ‘Big’ boys are based on the strains from Mexico/California… I love Vical ( was buying around $ 1.80 weeks ago…. I also traded Vical at $ 62.00 – $ 68.00 many moons ago ), but ‘ CVM ‘ has a top notch science team, and has been around quite awhile ( as I was trading them Many years ago ).., just a thought, and I do own CVM, (again) as of 9:35 am today……

  75. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 3:49 am

    “I usually hold one position LT, CHSCP (Cenex) and last time it started flashing me the finger we corrected back to below 880, and it started giving me the finger again today. Screw em’ I’m now 100% cash and they can go F themselves.”

    Does this back test well? I have 2 stink bids on CHSCP at 25.50 and 24.50 that have gotten very unlikely to fill the past 3 months or so as chscp has had a good run,per its standards….lol

    Myself, still just sitting on a SRS position..which has done nothing (by SRS standards) for about a week, small amount of COW &DBA.
    95% cash.

  76. Dave M(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 4:26 am

    I think there may be a problem with the RSI Application. I ran a scan tonight of some ETF’s, and it gave new buy signals on EEV, FXP, SSG, QID and REW, even though the RSI 7 dailies are in the 15 to 24 range. It is the RSI 7 monthlies that appear to have recently crossed above 30. Has anyone else noticed this?

  77. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 6:31 am

    http://www.homelidays.com

    Have a friend who rents out with this site. Seems good enough, especially compared to hotel prices.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 11:05 am

      Les- Hey, thanks for the info, we’ll look into it.

  78. cheapy(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 7:01 am

    Is when the value of paper money becomes questionable, and THAT is where this ship is headed…

    We don’t even CONSIDER the possibility that the dollars in our accounts might not be accepted in trade for oil, food, electronics, kitchen gizmos, clothes, shoes, etc., but yet that IS possible and HAS happened to many paper currencies in the past.

    At that moment, there will be no number of paper dollars that will entice me to part with my metal. Just remember the picture of the girl piling German Marks into the furnace from 1923. They tried to quantitative ease (print) their way out of a recession/depression by debasing the currency. It took 5 years to unravel in total, but by 1923 the Marks were worth more as fuel than the wood or coal they could buy.

    I think $5000 to $10000 per oz will be hit in the next 5 to 10 years.

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      July 30, 2009 at 9:18 am

      I really think not. Currency devaluation is probably in the cards for most of the G7.

      Jim Sinclair’s projection using a french curve on his hand drawn charts may be right, $1650/oz.

      Re: loonie

      Strongest currency in the world? Not really. The money supply advanced by 13% yoy since 2002 in Canada.

      Its because the commercial banking sector had decided that they would tie interest rates, commodities and currencies together in a nice leetole baaasket. It failed. Miserably.

      You have to know your facts. If what I say offends you then maybe I just aughta stick with my own comments elsewhere.

      • cheapy(118083 comments)-
        July 30, 2009 at 11:27 am

        If you check, you will find that there is a money supply of about $8.3 trillion and they have 261 million oz of gold and no silver. If you want to assume that the $11.4 trillion of debt will be repaid, then you can just divide that M2 number by the oz of gold to find the value they would need to use to back the currency.

        I think at minimum eventually they will need to do that. If they decide to pay off creditors at the same time, the number goes that much higher.

        I am not offended by what you wrote except your suggestion that I “know my facts”. I think its pretty obvious that I do.

        PS: Since M2 seems to go up every year, I assume it will continue to do so, hence my projection higher than the resulting $3180/oz for 5 to 10 years out. At a 3% growth rate on M2 I get a value of $4274 10 years from now, again assuming all the debt is to be repaid, and that the money the Fed has lent out will all be repaid.

  79. cheapy(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 11:08 am

    I’ve taken your RSI logic from the book and used one of my Telechart indicator panes for them, adding it to my favorite template, replacing ADX which I dont use so much anyway.

    Its been a while since I’ve been out of the market. I find that I can be a lot more objective how I look at things when I don’t own anything. Since I’m way up on the year, I figure this is my chance to take a fresh look at how I’m selecting and timing my entries and exits, as well as to look at how I’m allocating.

    Those are things I should have done long ago, LOL.

  80. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 30, 2009 at 11:10 am

    Another gap up open seems likely. It’s also July 30. If I were a betting man (hehe), I’d say we close the month on a very positive note.

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