Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Wednesday, Jul 1, 2009

[7:35am ET] Appropriately on Canada Day today, I noted an article in the National Post by the country

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190 Comments

  1. Grym(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 12:07 pm
    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 1:03 pm

      Grym- I was driving my 7-year-old to Target last week, as I had promised him a Bakugan Reaper (you have to be around young kids to know what they are) once he finished his second piano book. Along the way, he asked “Dad, what if they don’t have a Reaper?” Before I could respond (I was going to say something along the lines of “We’ll keep looking”), he said “Deal with it, right?” “That’s right,” I laughed.

      The following day, I laughed even harder when he asked, “Dad, what does ‘deal with it’ mean?”

      Almost all of my trades in the past few weeks>> Had I waited another hour/day, instead of taking minor losses, they would all have paid off. I’m just going to deal with it.

  2. Grym(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 12:09 pm

    Very interesting and plausible.

    The first truly thoughtful view I’ve seen anywhere.

    Thanks for the link, Bill.

    • number2son(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 1:32 pm

      The worst thing about the Madoff affair is that he seems to have become the lightening rod for all that went wrong in the markets. Meanwhile, those with even greater culpability in this disaster – who have been identified here by Bill and many others – carry on as if nothing has changed. And when you look at it, has anything really changed? For the positive, that is?

      • G(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 1:50 pm

        Let’s not forget that Madoff surrendered, gave himself up. The SEC did nothing! News reports have glossed over that the failure was in the enforcement of the rules and regulations that are already on the books. Suddenly we have had several ponzi schemes and others charged in the recent time period following Madoff. It’s like a police dept. that gets critized for doing nothing so they go out and find the lawbreakers that were there all along. There won’t be justice until Christopher Cox, head of the SEC, gets canned or announces his “retirement”. It was under his watch, his responsibility, and his accountability. The policitians will naturally overreact, but they should increase the staff and accountability within the SEC to actually do their jobs. We don’t have to build a new house, just clean the one we’ve got. Ultimately many will pay the price for a few. G

  3. Grym(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 12:32 pm

    mSquare,

    Thanks for the heads-up on the corp bond fund. I decided to park some cash there also.

    Mostly I’m simply conserving in VFIIX (in tax deferred account) while I wait for a better idea, but picking up a bit more yield is worth some risk.

    • mSquare(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 2:12 pm

      I am glad my heads-up worked for you Grym.

      In my effort to move away from funds to ETFs, moved my ‘parked us$’ from VWEHX/VWAHX to ETFs JNK & LQD. JNK has more yield than VWEHX and being an ETF I can place a stop-loss under it easily (to avoid a big drop of say 6% – about 6 months of yield)

      I would also look at the currency funds such as FXA (Australia). This is not much a currency play but get a 4.5% yield with decent potential to additionally gain due to us$ weakening against resource-rich Australia

  4. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:01 pm

    Good morning. Lots to report….looks like it’s dump on MYGN Day.

    Downgrades:

    MYGN – to Sector Perform @ RBC
    MYGN – to Perform @ Oppenheimer
    MYGN – to Sell @ Morgan Joseph. Price Target Lowered from $42 to $24

    New:

    ABB – Robert W. Baird Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $20
    ORCL – Caris & Co. Initiates Coverage with an Above Average. Price Target = $25

    Resumed:

    MYGN – Piper Jaffray Resumes Coverage with an Overweight. Price Target = $42

    Price Target Raised:

    ATVI – from $14 to $16 @ FBR Capital. Outperform
    INTC – from $18 to $19 @ AmTech Research. Buy

    Price Target Lowered:

    BBBY – from $33 to $32 @ FBR Capital. Market Perform
    MYGN – from $30 to $25 @ Benchmark. Hold

  5. Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:04 pm

    Those below are just rough trading ideas based on individual daily charts at the moment – do your DD, consider sectors and general market mood.

    BX Bearish, short on 10.50 – 10.40 zone breakdown; nearest support is 10 for covering part or taking profit; if loses 10,nothing but air below till 9.

    CKR Bearish, short 8.30 break, there are some support levels at 8 and 7.50 – 7.60, a lot of air under it.

    SWY Bearish, short on 20.10 – 20 zone breakdown. Nothing but air to 19, then to 17, and if loses 17, nothing but air at all.

    IDCC Bullish, a bit vague resistance to break, probably 24.50 – 24.70 zone; after 25.40 minor resistance there is not much till 30

    MRX Bullish, kind of self-explanatory chart

    CPHD Bullish, long on 8.60 break, nearest resistance levels are 10 and 11, nothing but clear sky above

    Keep your stops

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 1:08 pm

      Vad to the rescue! Like being lost in the jungle, and a guide shows up 😉

  6. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:05 pm

    this week when there is so much opportunity for manipulation downward…(Perhaps there is a minimum-time frame before earnings release)… I don’t know.. I thought last night about the total butt-kicking CELG got on their preannounce, and although the $ 27.00 range looks great ( and may not even get there), it could move to $ 25.60 range on a really violent swing around 11:00 am… I have not owned any…

  7. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:10 pm

    Mark- I could tell you how I feel about the 30.18 pre-market bid. But I won’t.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 1:22 pm

      GD it! I guess I’m going to have to deal with it…..

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 1:25 pm

        Well, that makes dealing with it a little easier for me (LOL).

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 2:00 pm

      2nd- Just got lucky on this one ….off @ 30.71.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 2:03 pm

        Congratulations, man. I know your basis was 28.28.

  8. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:21 pm

    For those of you still following former Cara 100 NTES:

    Price Target Lifted from $33 to $43 @ Brean Murray. Buy

  9. allengg(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    Thanks Bill for the heads-up on the article by Diane Francis. Her conjecture makes much more sense than most of the news reports, and in the last 20 or so years Ms.Francis has usually been right.
    Note that part where she recalls that “friends” in New York were told:”You don’t want to be part of this”.
    Still, I strongly believe that the SEC failed miserably here. BTW.Ruth Madoff withdrew 11 million just before Bernie’s arrest. Tipped off? And what happened to the money?

    • Dave M(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 2:33 am

      Another recent article by Diane Francis on Obama’s new financial regulations:

      http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/a

      • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 12:15 pm

        Dave M

        Re the Francis column you linked:
        http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/a

        The comments from her readers were more interesting, I think. A lot of food for thought there.

        • Dave M(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 4:53 pm

          Bill,

          I agree – there were some insightful comments from her readers. I found the ones by Tom I on the Federal Reserve particularly relevant:

          “Only the Federal Reserve (who is neither federal nor does it has any reserve of hard value) has unlimited financial and economic powers. It is not even required by law to be accountable to anyone including the Congress. Nobody can look at its books, participate in its decision process, nor challenge any of its decisions. What it decides are absolute, requiring no approval by anybody else.”

          ——————
          Submitted by Bill Cara (660 comments) on Thu, 07/02/2009 – 08:15 #35232

          Dave M

          Re the Francis column you linked:
          http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/francis/a

          The comments from her readers were more interesting, I think. A lot of food for thought there.

  10. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:30 pm

  11. thehonesttrader(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    who disagreed with him. seems like BS to me. I wish you would have gone on CNBC because the blogger they got did not argue his side real well.

    http://thehonesttrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/dennis

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 1:49 pm

      Dennis= A transparently boot-licking capitalist toady, a complete sycophant. Should go on a date with Larry Kudlow, they’d be happily ever after those two.

    • nemo(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 1:49 pm

      And Dennis Kneale’s claim to fame is what….former editorial wonk at FORBES now on tout TV…he should be on SNL

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 1:51 pm

      It was a book from the FAUX network playbook….look like you are giving someone a chance and then talk over him and cut it short.

      See the FAUX/CNBC/Bloomberg Ron Paul playbook.

      Oh, we have to cut to commercial or we have a technical difficulty….

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 2:11 pm

        I’d watch it if they didn’t whack a sponsor advert beforehand. Some days I just can’t be bothered, especially when its a talking head.

    • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 4:26 pm

      Here is the blogger he attacked. I think he defended really well, you can read it yourself.

      http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/dennis-lets-

  12. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    The Madoff prosecution, while correct and fully justified, has been touted in the media; it’s scope expanded to be comprehensive of the whole of the financial crises, i.e. Bernie Madoff is being blamed at this point for bringing down the entire financial system. In truth, it was Goldman Sachs who brought down the financial system, and Bernie is the convenient scapegoat.

    His trial and the RIDICULOUS sentence he received have strong elements of a Stalinist-style show trial although Bernie never capitulated really.

    All that’s left now is a short walk down a darkened hallway and a bullet to the brain.

    Come to think of it Bernie could have made a better impression at trial if he’d used his trial to put the SEC on trial. That would have been a mud bath.

    More and more as time goes by we see that never will the day arrive when the electorate pines for the good old days of Bill Clinton and company. CLinton’s administration was marked not by accomplishments but rather by it’s lack thereof. Can you think of a single Goshdarn thing Clinton ever did beside letting gays stay in the military’s long and illustrious closet, and getting rid of “welfare as we know it”?

    It’s looking more and more like, instead of stepping into a ready-made political career, young Chelsea will have to content herself inseat with being the multi-multi-millionaire daughter of a cracker ex-president liar.

    Life is SO UNFAIR!

    • Zed II(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 2:15 pm

      What Clinton accomplishments? Well if you traveled in Europe at the time, you had the rare privilege of being welcomed and respected as an American. The world welcomed a president of the U.S. that was percieved as progressive and articulate. You also enjoyed a strong dollar resulting from an expanding economy at home. Human rights were put to the forefront, and the U.S. rejoined the world in solving common problems.
      Civil rights legislation, and environmental protection and an attempt at rationalising health care.
      He was a self made man, not a dynastic (lucky sperm club) inheritor of office,
      a Rhodes Scholar.
      His presidency was so successful, he had to be damaged politically to prevent the shoe-in that Gore would have enjoyed.
      I was not a fan of Clinton at the time, seeing him as too ready to compromise with the rightwing and establishment business (as banks/brokerage).
      What would have happened had he simply said that his sex life is “none of you G*damned business” when cornered?
      Compare that to the monumental lies that followed for the next eight years….

      • nemo(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 3:07 pm

        the economic strength was not of his making. He had the confluence of three huge trends. Technology/internet, Greenspan’s bubbles, and the callable treasuries issued by Volcker in the early 80’s. He also had a hand in turning FNM/FRE into debt casinos.

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 3:16 pm

        Good points Zed…

        What about Berlusconi? He has a thriving sex life for an 80- year old and he’s not widely respected in Europe…what about that?

        What about the health care plan that Clinton PROMISED to pass, had the congress for at least 2 years and passed NOTHING.

        Oh wait…He did oversee the overturning of Glass Steagall, in concert with his butt-boy Robert Rubin on November 12 1999, clearing the way for the devestation we now enjoy. He was a total conniver. The only reason he was even allowed to run for president was because he oversaw George The First’s
        CIA dope importing business, coke actually, which used a runway in Arkansas compliments of Slick Willy, a nickname given to him by his friends, in admiration for his rhetorical skills, not his enemies.

        He managed to destroy welfare-as-we-knew-it just prior, it turns out, to the biggest need in world history for precisely that accomodation. People are starving to death in America.

        I suppose his greatest crime, the one he should be put in front of a brick wall and shot for, was being a traitor to his party’s ideals. He set the party back 30 years and paved the way for George the 2nd.

        Other than that, and being one smarmy sonofabitch, Bill CLinton was a great president. And I’m very, very glad that the Europeans approved:) That was keeping me up at night, worrying what the Slovakians think.

        • frankoo(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 3:22 pm

          He did find a new use for the Cigar.

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 3:24 pm

          LOL! Love ya shark, but if you’ll flip the pov I’m pretty sure there are a lot of Europeans thinking the same of some NJ Italian guy’s opinion on a financial blog…

        • Zed II(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 6:17 pm

          Berlusconi? I don’t get the link.
          As I stated, I was no fan of Clinton, a great mind wasted on “third way” sell outs. While deserving of much of the criticism as you point out, don’t be deluded into thinking a democrat governor was privy to top tier CIA operations initiated under a republican administration.
          Even if they did occur in his home state.
          And yes, we should care what people think of our country. We are all in this little lifeboat called planet Earth together.

          Ciao, Z

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 3:21 pm
  13. barry(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 1:56 pm
  14. Jack(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:09 pm

    Everyone,

    I am proud of all the dynamic, moral, compassionate, talented, forward-thinking Canadians at home and abroad — in and out of uniform — who uphold Canada’s reputation as a force for good in the world. It’s a dented and scratched reputation to be sure, but just ask the thousands waiting at the front gate whether it’s a valid one.

    Today I will:
    — Place the red-and-white in the flagstaff on the front of my house, where it will stay until the weather turns.
    — Think again of the people of all ages, origins and beliefs who stood with me decades ago in a big room to sing O Canada. I wish for them all that their lives in Canada have been as fulfilling as mine.
    — Eat, drink and play with family and friends… just because I can.
    — Take in some more of this magnificent country’s natural beauty. I’ll never get enough.
    — Send you all best wishes from the north. May we all work together for a better world.

    Jack

  15. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    With the 1:20 Split yesterday doesn’t it seem that it has some upside here? Basically 2 days ago it was trading at $29, now it’s $21? Anyone have any experience with splits like this?

  16. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:19 pm

    What happened here??????????????????

    was anyone here holding aig? ??

    I was holding several hundred shares at one point but dumped them at a loss.

    bummmmer

    vb

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 2:22 pm

      VB- If you held you would only have 8 shares now. NBD

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 2:35 pm

        OKay, reverse split so I guess my instinct was correct these guys are sleezebuckets. Better stay focused on trading today. hey mark, hope you are feelin better on the slw and auy. :)

        • gc(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 3:38 pm

          “hope you are feelin better on the slw and auy. :)”

          well, i’m sold what i bought in yesterday for a small profit.. :)

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 2:24 pm

      lol – your several hundred shares would now be 15 shares AND worth considerably less than the several hundred were – GOOD DUMP! :)

  17. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:23 pm
    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 2:26 pm

      Les- POG back to 940…Pretty much line in the sand time, no?

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 2:46 pm

        Looking for that extra catalyst Mark. I’ve been burned by the vagaries of gold prices too many times to consider this price a line in the sand, without other bullish factors that may influence it in a positive manner.

        Bill knowing this market, Twigg’s giving an if/then scenario gives me greater confidence than the POG

  18. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    Crude oil inventories (weekly change) prior -3.9 M barrels, actual -3.7 M barrels

  19. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:41 pm

    Could be a breakout above 15.70 just beginning, maybe we’ll see 16.40 by eod. There was a notice this morning about a small increase (5k) in call option activity.

    DYODD. Disclosure: I own a small amount of ACI.

  20. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:50 pm

    I would be careful wading in on the short side. Even in shallow water a riptide can carry you out:

    http://tinyurl.com/m2awln

    I have no take on how much higher they can take it, other than my concerns two evenings ago regarding how easily they ramped up the indexes in Tokyo and Hong Kong. The market will not necessarily behave according to even the most insightful analyses.

    No positions, and no plans to take any.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 5:00 pm

      That’s scary, 2nd_ave. On Sunday my friends suggested that we go to the Montara State Beach (where the accident took place on Monday), but I decided to go to the neighboring Pacifica State Beach, which was a little closer. Forgetting about possible rip currents, I let my 3.5 old run in and out of the water by himself (running away from big waves), and then I myself went for a swim in the ocean (it was unusually warm). I am glad we didn’t do it at the Montara beach… Now I’ll make sure to check on the Web for rip currents at every new ocean beach we go to with children.

  21. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:57 pm

    Just signed up for stock charts membership. After 24 hours with Twigg’s charts I was getting cranky. Unfamiliar interface, different layout/schematics that distracted me from seeing the chart as easily as I’m used to with SC

    (gave Twigg’s one month’s membership for his timely and thoughtful e-letters, my good deed for the day 😉

    Yet signing up for Stock Charts “middle of the road”, not too basic, not too expensive package I have found that SC provides me with charts of the following dimensions:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&b=5&g=0&i

    This stinks for a membership package! I bookmarked someone else’s chart in the past with its grandiose size and happily SC recognises my membership when I use the bookmark now:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=1

    question: why the crappy little chart size on my membership package? who is getting the deluxe size charts in their membership and which membership package is it. I thought package no. 2 and 3 had same chart sizes.

    Stupid, cause I have to continue using someone else’s bookmark to keep the large chart size.

    TIA

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 3:07 pm

      were you logged on, Les?

      Anyway, both of those charts you posted are available for free.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 3:09 pm

        yep, in the member package control center. Click on a sharp chart, get this crappy little chart to play with.

        Will email these guys and ask what’s up. This size chart is for the basic package as far as I can tell.

        yeh, I wouldn’t voluntarily pay for something that is free. I want to start storing charts for daily scanning, automatically updated.

        • Johnny(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 3:23 pm

          Les, I bought the “Real Time Charting” option and it does most of anything I need, including annotations that can be saved for interactive future chart use, i.e. your annotation shows as the live information changes. There are options to adjust screen ” Type, Size, Color Scheme” and much more under “Chart Attributes”. Look for that and see what you can do.
          Good luck.

        • Bev(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 3:39 pm

          Les

          By chance, does this answer your question about the chart sizing at Stockcharts.

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 3:54 pm

            AH SWEET! You’re the greatest Bev!

            Now we’re cooking with gas:

            http://tinyurl.com/m5qh9v

            AH how I have lived in ignorance. Oh mighty one, would you be so kind to tell me how you annotate and post the url as well? When I opened the separate window to annotate the chart it was impossible to cut n paste its url.

          • bankchamp(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 4:26 pm

            Les,

            once you have your chart annotated, you (1) click “Upload” in the upper right hand corner, (2)close the Java window, and (3) go to the drop down box called “Charts” with the words” -Your Saved Charts-” in it. You will find your chart on that list by whatever you named it.

            Good Luck!

            Mark

          • Quasi(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 4:57 pm

            Les, start with the help index here, there is a post which covers the basics of chart and link posting, direct link as follows.

            http://caracommunity.com/content/chart-and-link-po

            Next I would look at the post on “Chart and Link Posting 101” over on the IHUB “Stockcharts Users Support Forum” Note it was written mostly for posting charts on IHUB forums but most of it is still applicable here.

            http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx

            I would also read many of the posts on the IHUB “Stockcharts Users Support Forum” I’m sure you will find lots of information, particularly on setting up and writing scans. There is a link on the Stockcharts website to the user forum but I forget where it is, so here’s a direct link to that site. You can read for free but if you want to post you will have to sign up, just use the free registration.

            http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?bo

            To avoid too much off topic stuff here I would suggest you post questions over there, or email me with the contact the author function and I’ll see what I can do.

            PS do you have the Basic or Extra membership, as it will dictate how you can post annotated charts. In Extra you can save the annotations, in Basic you will have to take a screen shot and then upload that. Anyway above links provide some info on all of that.

            Have fun I’m sure you will enjoy all the new features now available to you.

            Quasi

          • BOB 47(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 9:17 pm

            Very good Bev . Thank you . Bob.

        • Morg(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 3:42 pm

          Les, Have you tried changing the dropdown for the Size? The first chart you posted shows a size of 460, the second was marked as Landscape.

    • photogray(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 4:42 pm

      Les, I may be stating the obvious. Regarding size of chart, click on the Size drop down box in the 2 nd line of attributes. See…http://preview.tinyurl.com/kjp4oz
      Hope this link works. I will duplicate and take a snippet of the chart also, see link below. As you can see, I normally put the RSI and MACD and stoch on top. I also normally view in landscape but in the link below, I was using 620 size so I could read list of stocks in window behind it.
      forgive me if this is not what you are complaining about. I am NO WAY talented in this.
      peace

  22. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:00 pm

    At 10:30 USO basically fell off a cliff on heavy volume, possibly due to this report released at that time. It has since continued down, giving up almost all its gains for today.

    Big builds in products lead weekly inventory data with gasoline up 2.3 million barrels and distillates up 2.9 million. The builds reflect soft demand and firm output. Demand for gasoline is up only 0.9 percent year-on-year while demand for jet fuel is down 9.4 percent. Capacity utilization is at 87.0 percent vs. sub-80 readings earlier in the year. The builds in products won’t increase demand for crude oil where stocks fell 3.7 million barrels in the June 26 week to 350.2 million. Oil fell 75 cents to $71 in immediate reaction to the results.

  23. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:13 pm

    Who lit a fire under USD this morning? Up strongly with unimpressive volume, but lots of long white candles. Volume has declined over the past 30+ days but a few buyers are in there today, making a good show. Rotation?

  24. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:14 pm

    It seems like being on the precipice of stimulus is having a chilling effect on the economy at this point.

  25. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:22 pm

    From guest on cnbc just now…. With that, I am going to walk…..

  26. gc(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:40 pm

    KB SHG WF, especially KB is loosing it’s kite-string…

    • gc(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 3:43 pm

      KB and SHG both ended with high volume yesterday…

  27. Luggie(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:47 pm

    Hi Vad – Thanks for your guidance / I have been looking for an entry on this one to satisfy the higher authority who likes the restylane/perlane products for recurring scar treatments from injuries in a previous car accident. Happy Trading

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 3:56 pm

      Luggie,

      you know about it way more than I do, I just skimmed over charts with no regard to stories/fundamentals :)

      Anyway, with this volume of slow summer trading, be careful with them all, this environment is not very conducive to any sensible trading in time frames beyond 1 min 43 seconds…

  28. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:51 pm

    Sold both…AUY can’t seem to break above 9.30 (flat) and KGC hit my 8% return.

    • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 5:58 pm

      75% of lower GICS 25 sector stocks are billion capitalizations. as of 1345 PM

  29. photogray(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    JPM Chase credit card company says today that minimum payment on monthly balances will increase from 2% to 5%.
    I am sure glad the credit squeeze is getting better! This will hurt a lot of people. I imagine that failure to pay will then initiate higher (! HIGHER !) interest applied. Probably end up increased profits for cc companies. I think the water just got 1 degree hotter.
    peace from North Puget Sound on the opening day of crab season. I think they need a traffic cop out on the water today. lol

  30. thehonesttrader(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:08 pm

    Reuters reports China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week’s Group of Eight summit in Italy and the issue could be referred to briefly in the summit statement, G8 sources said on Wednesday. One G8 source who was involved in the negotiations said China made the request during preparatory talks about a joint statement to be issued on the second day of the summit in L’Aquila by the G8 plus the G5 (Brazil, India, China, Mexico and South Africa) and also Egypt. This forum, the so-called “G14”, meets on July 9 to discuss the financial crisis, trade and climate change and for the first time a G8 summit will also produce a joint G14 statement. A European source with knowledge of preparations for the summit also said China had raised the subject of a reserve currency debate and that it might be mentioned during the meeting, though the source added: “Any country at the meeting can raise issues they see fit. But whether there is a specific mention in the communique remains open,” said the European source, adding that sherpas would discuss this further in preparatory talks on Friday. The debate centres on proposals by some emerging powers that an alternative should be found to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, to reflect the shifting balance of power in the globalised economy.

  31. Bev(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:18 pm

    To quote Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading:

    “I have a feeling one day the door is gonna close, everyone is going to be running for the exits, there is going to be a major move in the market and everyone is going to wonder “what happened?”

    There is problem structurally in the equity markets that nobody wants to talk about. There is intervention, there is manipulation going on. No one has exact proof of what is going on but it’s out there, and the real liquidity has been gone for a while. People don’t understand, the liquidity is not coming back.”

    See video here:

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/themis-tradi

    • Bev(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 4:29 pm

      Forgot to mention… in the video from the 4 min mark on is an eye opener. True you may know it already but he just seems to make it even more believable.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 4:41 pm

      Bev – I don’t read ZH much anymore, do they ever mention that consumers must still drive to work, feed their children, and replace non-durable items?

      Not to say they are wrong, however, it seems to me ZH rarely, if ever, takes an objective appraisal on the economy. I’ve noticed their data are often incomplete and not well researched.

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 4:56 pm

        Chickenpookie

        I am not following you. Zero Hedge has always given me the impression by the posts that all is not well, no matter what the banks and government are telling us. So are you saying all is well and improving and Zero Hedge is not reporting this [do they ever mention that consumers must still drive to work, feed their children, and replace non-durable items]? Help me to better understand your statement.

        • Bev(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 5:18 pm

          Chickenpookie

          Let me add this. Since you may not agree with Zero Hedge, then why not in this case just use the web site for the video link to watch Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading on Bloomberg TV. I believe you will find what he has to say very interesting. Especially from the 4:00 min mark on.

          • photogray(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 5:26 pm

            Joe Saluzzi said some memorable things when he wasn’t being interupted and cut off;
            “anything over 50 miliseconds, you’re a dinosaur”
            Theres a problem structurally in the equity markets no one wants to talk about….. “
            “intervention…”
            “manipulation..”
            Gee, wish a guy like this would blog daily to give us dinosaurs (who have 9 feet in the grave) an insight to whats really going on.
            Oh, yeah. Thats Bill.
            Thanks Bill Cara
            peace

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 6:48 pm

          Bev – I’m simply saying from my perspective, ZH consistently represents one side of the argument without much consideration for objective analysis of positive aspects. I wonder if they don’t run the risk of compromising their journalistic integrity in much the same way green-shoots media have. Could ZH be an arm of GS in disguise?

          All extremists must be shot!

          • Bev(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:51 pm

            Chickenpookie

            OK… I understand your point now. Thanks.

  32. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:24 pm

    “I went through all my charts last night and in the wee hours of this morning, and I’ve lined up 99 bearish opportunities. Given the strong bullish bias of pre-July 4 trading, I might hold off until tomorrow to jump in with both feet, but there is a wealth of great shorts waiting to be had.

    I’ll also mention that I’ve succumbed to the advice of Slopers and exited my TBT long this morning. I took a small four-figure profit on the trade, but I recognize the danger of the H&S pattern and no longer have this position.”

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 5:13 pm

      Craig – I’ve succumbed to the advice of Slopers and exited my TBT long this morning. I took a small four-figure profit on the trade, but I recognize the danger of the H&S pattern and no longer have this position.

      I’m seeing the TBT bounce off its lower trendline – in the same way that the TLT is bouncing off its upper trendline. The fact this is happening right as the RSI bottoms out at 30 tells me risks seem relatively low here. Of course I entered way too early (at around 53 if memory serves) but that’s quite another matter.

      http://tinyurl.com/ma8oth

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 5:23 pm

        Nice chart Dave, check out the first one on this page…
        http://www.slopeofhope.com/

        Edit: I’m sure you will recognize the H&S on your own chart from this…

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 5:51 pm

      Craig,
      Can you give some more information? I see inverse H&S for TBT and H&S for TLT on daily charts. You are seeing the reverse in a different time frame or what? Thinking of going long with TBT

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 6:02 pm

        Shiva

        I believe Craig was referring to this picture of TBT with the H&S. I take it this is what you were asking about?

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 6:07 pm

          Yikes, fast on the ‘draw’ Bev!

          • Bev(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:12 pm

            Craig [a.k.a UNG Slayer]

            Thought I would ease the load on one of our more successful traders.

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 6:06 pm

        Sure, put up a 1 mo TBT chart, then look back at Tim Knight’s page again.
        His chart is 1 month and has the lines indicating the H&S.
        I agree on Dave’s trendlines but I also see the H&S both for TBT and the one forming for SPX on John Lee’s page and in his commentary.

        http://www.weeklyta.blogspot.com/

        Edit: I’m also flexible so realize Hb&B can overpower a lot of nasty looking charts….for a bit.

        • Shiva(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 6:12 pm

          Bev, Craig – thx. I see what you meant now. Its a conundrum, if interest rates are to be kept low(Fed’s policy), TBT has to go down. But with all the printing, TBT has to go up Long Term.

          Will watch the reaction of TBT at 54 and see if the pattern holds

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:21 pm

            Shiva,
            Keep in mind if we do correct that TBT will correct as well and TLT will be a flight to safety destination.

            I don’t know Bev, I’ve been treading water lately….I did take my que from UNG @ 14 today and did alright with a RIMM trade and am now largely standing aside.

            I’m far more patient doing nothing than I have been previously. I guess that’s good! I’m learning from my mistakes.

          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:39 pm

            I wouldn’t read too much into TBT’s chart. Better to look at the underlyings isn’t it? And they’re telling me the easy money has been made in TBT:

            http://tinyurl.com/m5y99x

            Now TBT/TLT are probably only useful for short and sweet trades OR TOG. Given the fact that TBT is short and leveraged, and I don’t know when TOG is coming, I’m unsure about the wisdom of holding it for that purpose alone.

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:41 pm

            Here are three scenarios for TBT:

            * market does not correct. green shoots. TBT will rise.
            * market corrects, driven by a foreign government running for the exit in treasuries. TBT will rise.
            * market corrects “normally”. TBT will drop.

            Just a thought. Sometimes things don’t act the way we think they should. Like gold being thrown under the bus during the 08 crash.

          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:46 pm

            * market meanders sideways for a few quarters. TBT will drop like all 2x inverse etfs.
            * market corrects hard, driven by a lack of greens shoots. US retains safe-haven status. TBT falls uber-hard.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:56 pm

            TBT/TLT I’m just looking at in the classic sense, equities fall, treasuries tend get stronger as a safe haven for cash. I’m not trying to over think it.
            I’m sure there are nuances, but I’m not that quick.
            I would welcome another shot at TBT at 35.50 again though….:>)

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:57 pm

            Mackinaw – the hard correction driven by lack of green shoots is the same scenario I was referring to. I’m presupposing a hard correction I guess. At that point, it pays to have stops. :)

          • Bev(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 6:50 pm

            davefairtex

            “Like gold being thrown under the bus during the 08 crash.”

            My take on that was, there were a lot of margin calls during that time and everything was on the sell block. Also there a lot of Hedge Funds were getting redemption calls and they were heavily weighted into PM I bet.

  33. JimG(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:31 pm

    The mainstream news media is finally picking up on what Bill has been saying about the market…

    Joe Saluzzi of Themis Trading on Bloomberg TV

    “I have a feeling one day the door is gonna close, everyone is going to be running for the exits, there is going to be a major move in the market and everyone is going to wonder “what happened?”

    There is problem structurally in the equity markets that nobody wants to talk about. There is intervention, there is manipulation going on. No one has exact proof of what is going on but it’s out there, and the real liquidity has been gone for a while. People don’t understand, the liquidity is not coming back.”

    Video: http://tinyurl.com/km2tx5

  34. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:36 pm

    gold doing a jig today,

    currently sitting at $944 range, right up against the high from a few days ago, we have seen this before after plunges where gold jumps back up to the previous few days resistance points. these are critical points as gold’s failure to breach the mid $940’s on this move would to me suggest gold is moving back down, to break above it might ignite the spark many of us are looking for on the next move to 1000-ville, that magical place where dreams are made and broken, where streets are lined with paper gold ETF’s, double levered bull funds. ah yes, its a wonderful place i hope you get a chance to visit….

  35. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:42 pm

    Bernie says he just got tired of the whole scam and decided to turn himself in. Just once I’d like the SEC and criminal investigators in this case tell us the one fact we need to know: Right before he gave himself up, did Bernie deliberately delete all his emails and personal computer records in order to hide the money he stole, and protect the people he was working for? That would tell me everything I need to know.

    • FireFly(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 4:51 pm

      This has been my question all along! I Second that Motion!
      HA!
      Oh and Eh?

    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 4:55 pm

      My opinion,

      No, I believe Madoff saw the handwriting on the wall Way before and had already deleted those emails and trashed the computers. He knew his days were numbered and felt the heat intensifying. All his cohorts did the same thing. This is wall street and how it is run today , Yes, the SEC knew (on some level) – just like the FDA knows that Splenda is not safe but lets JNJ profit. (I own JNJ just because this is how the game is played) you don’t make money betting against the regime in this market

      I do agree with shark that madoff should have used the trial to put the SEC on trial and expose the whole thing but he was probably working a deal in the back room to try to save his wife and kids from getting indicted

      sorry, just my 2 cents and hope I didn’t go over board but I think the whole shebang has to go down in order for our economy to get back on track. That is why i own gold and oil for long term and invest in BRIC.

      vb

    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 8:01 pm

      ALOHA !!

      150 years …

      Not many of you know this but if an inmate works one day then he gets a day off his sentence, plus he gets paid 40 cents per hour(more than a Vietnamese factory worker)!! That is a fact! So if Bernie works he can cut his prison sentence down to 75 years and with good behavior and handling the Wardens 401k and his 1040s he’ll be out in five years and back at his “wife’s” penthouse!

      When I first moved to San Francisco I worked as an estimator for a contractor who bragged that he was a millionaire three times in his life and each time he filed bankruptcy. Prior to filing BK he would put all his holdings in cousins names and move all his most prized and valuable possessions out to a secluded ranch out in Vacaville, CA and hide it all in 40ft storage containers. Do the rich destroy evidence and hide their wealth prior to filing BK and going to jail? Of course they do …

      Justice American style … HA!!

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 8:05 pm

        ALOHA Kaimu!
        I worked for a guy that immediately after BK was driving a Rolls and started a business. Bernie giving watches and cash to relatives is small time….
        He was transferring way more than Rolex’s.
        I suspect even you would be happy with a few billion FRN’s….LOL!

  36. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:49 pm

    http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/07/portfolio-kille

    There must be another fifty.

  37. tbar(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    Is that forecasting a drop in euro? seems the leverage is gone and at a double top with neg divergence?

    ps that 50,2 bb pinch usually denotes a large move imo, which way?

  38. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 5:24 pm

    There’s a fairly well-established principle of the market that, just as a stock or commodity establishes an opening range in the first minutes to an hour or so of trading, so it is with market action overall in both January and July. First week? More? Less? If the principle has any validity, and if today is indeed acting like the beginning of the 2nd half, then the possibility of further dollar weakness, driving metals and stocks seems to have good potential.

  39. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 5:28 pm

    Still keeping an eye out for Vad’s SWY short. It was fighting it this AM but one thing I have is time….

    I find the talk of rip tides fascinating as this market breaks on the beach and tracks sideways….

  40. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 5:30 pm
  41. David(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 5:43 pm

    Since I have declared the stock market for the next 10 years to be a “trader’s market,” I figured that selling KGC today would be appropriate as it had a very good one day move today and also the whole stock market has much more room on the downside than on the upside. So I just sold all my KGC (5% of my portfolio) at $19.64, which I had acquired at about $14.5 in mid-April when Bill had alerted us about this great stock. Placed a buy limit order at $18.5 for the shares I sold today.

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 5:55 pm

      David, appreciate your disciplined trading, KGC & other miners will probably re-test May highs but nothing goes up straightline, so u might collect them back at 18.50, i think.

      I have to keep reminding myself to enter & exit trades with discipline :)

      • David(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 10:34 pm

        I just came back from a free noon chamber music concert at Stanford (those who live in the area should definitely check them out!) and saw that the downtrend that started right when I sold my KGC persisted for the rest of the session. It feels like the market has very little strength left to move higher, and every attempt to lift prices is met with some serious “distribution.” So instead of trying to re-load at $18.50 the KGC shares I sold at today $19.64, I think I’ll just wait for KGC to drop below $19 and then sell $19 puts on it, which should give me an effective purchase price of $18, or I may even wait until KGC hits $18 and then sell the $18 puts on it (probably August) so as to get an effective purchase price of $17.

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 12:54 am

          David-

          On the other hand, what makes you tick IS a mystery. Not saying I can’t occasionally tune out the market while holding volatile positions, but I can’t do it day after day the way you seem to. I can imagine you in twenty years, a touch of gray around the temples/leaning back in your Stanford digs, advising (yet another) concerned colleague to finish his/her cognac while you calmly explain how to dig him/herself out of a hole 😉

  42. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 5:48 pm

    ATVI – numbers raised at to $16 at Friedman, Billings Ramsey. Estimates also raised, as new releases should drive growth in the second half of the year. Outperform rating.

    CHRW – estimates raised at Morgan Stanley through 2011. Company seeing growth in higher margin businesses. Equal-weight rating.

    DIS – estimates lowered at Barclays through 2010. Even though Orlando travel may be stabilizing, areas like ESPN advertising could still disappoint. Overweight rating and $32 price target.

    INTC – estimates raised at Morgan Stanley. Expectations of higher revenue and gross margins led to the increase in numbers. Maintained Overweight rating and price target of $19.

    MYGN – numbers reduced at UBS through 2010. Company warned of lower molecular diagnostic sales. Buy rating and new $40 price target.

  43. David(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 6:12 pm

    Notice how weak the bank stocks are now (and have been lately), after the money has rotated from that sector (after stellar gains in March-May). In the past, when Dow was up 1%, SKF would be down by 5% or even 10%. Now SKF is down only 0.5%. I think SKF has definitely bottomed out in the low 40’s, and now we just need to wait until it starts zooming up. I have about 5% of my portfolio in SKF.

  44. Bev(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 6:15 pm

    1 min VIX. Need to close in the orange zone for a sell signal. I do not think we will get it. I still believe we will see a sell off after the 6th, if we do indeed see one at all. IMO of course.

    http://tinyurl.com/lfnxkv

  45. Tremendous11(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 6:47 pm

    Nice to see this in mainstream media…even if it was prominently displayed on their site for just a short time last night while most of the country was asleep. Perhaps its finally gaining enough momentum that Barney Frank can’t stonewall it?

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/06/24/mr-popu

  46. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 7:00 pm

  47. Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 7:16 pm

    Just went long @ 86.92. The positives are gap up on increasing volume, break above 7 dma, sitting on 50 dma, above 200 dma and 89 dma is attempting to cross 200 dma. Nice Fibonacci retracement of 3.82 off 92.53 high vs 76.75 low.

    Was looking at this yesterday.

  48. Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 7:48 pm
  49. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 8:01 pm

    oh man, su is diving, better get out the bob brinker 7.1.09 news letter!
    :0

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 8:56 pm

      vanillabean – I see a sell signal was generated yesterday: :0 0:

      http://www.americanbulls.com

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 12:26 am

        thanks cp for the site. I noticed there are tutorials for candlestick reading!

        david, thanks for the heads up on stanford concert. I should check it out since I am about 5 min away and should take a break! (working 3 jobs)

        2nd, I feel all beat up today. I risk 20,000 to make 300.00. ? crazy.

        Perhaps this is why people are rebirthing themselves over at the 2ndlife site. Hey Mark, you can buy land and then build on it and sell it later for a profit. wild concept. I was on the site last night and I saw these virtual people on their island just working away (at something) not sure what but looked like they might be building something.

        vb

        • David(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 12:44 am

          vanillabean (and whoever else is interested): I suggest you sign up for the e-mailing list:
          music-listings@lists.stanford.edu
          to get weekly announcements of various free and inexpensive ($5 to $10) music concerts at Stanford.

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 12:53 am

          “2nd, I feel all beat up today. I risk 20,000 to make 300.00. ? crazy.”

          You need to set up an appointment with David 😉

  50. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 8:56 pm

    Is anyone out there doing well? Any tips for the rest of us?

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 8:59 pm

      It’s tough right now, take profit quickly! The moves are small and it seems like we’re headed down(UP).

    • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 9:19 pm

      Goto post 35157, there are 36 tips.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 9:38 pm

        36 Very good tips, BTW…

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 12:25 am

        T3d- Reminds me of the time a girl who was sitting next to me in the back of a lecture hall turned to me and asked, “So, what’s the secret?” (I honestly can’t recall what, if anything, I had done to warrant being asked). I smiled and responded with the first thing that came to mind- “Study hard.” Which got a hearty laugh. Because we all know there’s no secret.

        I’ve noticed Gann mentioned quite a bit recently. I googled Gann 12 and 24 and got an eyeful. I’m going to spend my down time looking into some of it, thanks.

        • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 12:53 am

          2nd, I have never googled Gann 12 an 24, but when I did I found this 45 years in Wall Street by W.D. Gann. I think it is the whole book free.

          http://books.google.com/books?id=is2acP3Lm7EC&dq=w

          I take it back, it is just parts of the book, but seems to cover and explain many of the rules. It’s a tease.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            July 2, 2009 at 1:17 am

            T3d- Yes, it’s just a 29-page preview, but there’s enough in those 29 pages to get me going. It’s a riveting read (just scanning through it), sort of like sitting in Professor Gann’s classroom listening to him hold forth on the secrets of the universe.

            Thanks for the link.

          • gc(118083 comments)-
            July 2, 2009 at 1:53 am

            it’s kind of hard this week..
            most chart has ma50 ma200 and the price converged at one single point…

          • gc(118083 comments)-
            July 2, 2009 at 2:13 am

            it’s kind of hard this week..
            most chart has ma50 ma200 and the price converged at one single point…

    • Illini(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 9:38 pm

      The only winning trades I have had since mid May have been on the short side. I have repeatedly shorted one particular stock for small gains, usually intra day. That would be PSS, or Payless Shoe Source, now known as Collective Brands. I chose it largely on fundamentals including high debt and losing money. A price in the low teens and volatility also helped.

      • mrking(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 1:40 am

        Reached my soft sell points this morning, so dumped everything and took my profit and ran. After hours, bought back a few after hours at lower prices than I sold them earlier for…I do love feasting after hours!

        Bought: UWM, TBT, UYM, SMH, and QLD

        I probably should not have sold everything, but was uncomfortably long and when you see a 5 digit profit on your screen for the day’s work…LOL

        Wish everyone a great 4th weekend! Let’s never forget why it is a holiday!
        God Bless Our Troops!

        MK

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 1:51 am

          MK- Is it the Red Bull or the sharp claws that helps you trade faster 😉

          • mrking(118083 comments)-
            July 2, 2009 at 3:21 am

            “MK- Is it the Red Bull or the sharp claws that helps you trade faster ;)”

            Actually it is fear of having to tell my loving wife I missed a profit opportunity. LOL

            MK

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 10:16 pm

      My only true winners have been RIMM, buying around $69/selling above $71, TCK in the low to mid $15’s and selling above $17, and a few pennies today on UNG from $13.60/13.72 to $14, but subtract my stop loss from yesterday and it’s about even.

      If you were fast on the button you made some $$$ on a couple of Vad’s plays from this AM but you had to be fast as they jumped up and reversed quickly.
      Dangerousway never did come to me as a short…yet.

      More of the same sideways rip tide action….ride the wave in, get out and towel off, or you get pulled back in and someone has to call the lifeguard. Yawn.

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 10:28 pm

        I forgot, I made some lunch money (a decent lunch with drinks for a couple people) on F and PDS. That’s about it.

  51. David(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 11:43 pm

    I was reluctant to sell even a little of my UXG despite the recent run-up in prices because I thought that all of my shares were accumulated at higher prices, vaguely recalling that I bought 2000 shares at around $3.20, and then thinking that all the shares that I bought below $3.20 I already sold with some profit (I was determined to buy UXG on the way down in small bunches and then only sell each bunch of shares with profit). I have just remembered, however, that in mid-March I bought 3500 more shares at $1.75 (once again thanks to Bill’s note about UXG sitting on some great discoveries), which was a lateral move I made after selling my SLW at $6 (I also moved some proceeds from the SLW sale into SLV at $12.10).

    So now, given the huge run-up in the broad market since March, given its apparent market weakness in the last couple of weeks, given the head-and-shoulders pattern for S&P, I think it is wise to place a sell stop limit order (stop at $2.67, limit $2.60) for 2000 shares of my UXG out of the 3500 shares I purchased in March at $1.75. As for the remaining 1500 shares, I decided to place a limit order at $2.90, so as to trap a potential last-stage explosion that the recent price run-up can culminate in.

  52. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 12:54 am

    SLW is starting to look good to me here, it’s sitting on the bottom of it’s trend line from what I see… I’m thinking it might easily go to around $10 soon.

  53. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 1:03 am

    “The Banker” magazine came out with their annual Top 1000 banks lists.

    http://www.thebanker.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/67

    There’s also a video at the end of the article where they discuss the results.

    It’s all gibberish to me :), or at least extremely dull, on this Canada Day.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 1:23 am

      Shows you how little I know about banking. I thought you typed one too many zeroes, and listing the top 1000 banks would be like listing the top 100 NFL teams.

  54. Grasshopper(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 1:18 am

    I just checked my fiance’s IRA portfolio and see that the majority of her IRA is across several high yield bond funds. I want to guide her and just want to make sure that the underlying theme of the TOG is to sell bonds and buy gold. In other words, should I guide her out of these funds and into foreign equities or PM’s? Any advice would be appreciated. TIA

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 1:30 am

      If her Financial Advisor put her into those, say, anytime between mid Oct ’08 – mid Apr ’09, that’s one smart cookie and she should probably continue to listen to their advice. On the other hand, if she’s not getting any professional advice, she may want to look into finding some.

    • Illini(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 1:45 am

      Ghopper,

      Most portfolio analysts I have read allocate only a small percentage of the bond portfolio to the High Yield. It is higher risk among bonds.

      As to how to allocate the majority of funds now, nothing is safe. Except cash, to a point. PM’s or miners are another component of a longer term portfolio.

  55. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 1:30 am

    How about this, Bev?

    “Safest Selling Point. After a market has advanced for a long time and made Final High and has the First Sharp quick Decline, then rallies and makes the Second Lower Top, and from this Top declines and Breaks the Low point of the First Decline, it is then Safer to Sell because it has given the Signal that the main Trend has changed to the Down side.”

    I even like the guy’s use of Capitalized words to Good Effect.

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 1:40 am

      Solid Advice! lol

      If only a few people had followed that here:

      http://tinyurl.com/kwyh9v (S&P 500)

      They would have bailed in the 2nd week of Jan 2008. That’s when I did (remember that rogue French-Trader scare?).

      Of course the 50MA/200MA cross-over would have got you out a little earlier (by a week or two)

      Thing is… we have NOT been advancing for a long time where we are now. But in Jan 2008 we had been – for 4+ years!

      • MarkW(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 2:00 am

        MAC- LOL my friend…That’s exactly the time I STARTED trading my own account! It’s been a tough ride, but with Bill’s great guidance and the countless others here that post, I’ve made it out the other side. Nothing better than being thrown right into the hopper, no?

        • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 2:08 am

          Forged in the Furnace! As Vadym said once: If you can trade well through this, a cyclical Bull will be a cakewalk. (paraphrasing)

          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            July 2, 2009 at 2:19 am

            What I’m amazed by is the speed with which some markets have recovered from this mess. Take a peek at FXI, INP, EWZ.

            China, India, and Brazil have all, basically, recovered to the BEAR STEARN’S point in time! (March ’08; not so much Brazil) That seems all too fast and has me a bit edgy because I am 15% emerging markets right now.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 1:46 am

      “Taking heavy risks in the beginning [or anytime, IMO] endangers your capital and impairs your judgment. Trade in such a way that you will not be disturbed by a loss, if it comes.”

      What can I say? Trading is probably 90% mental.

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 1:52 am

        “What can I say? Trading is probably 90% mental.
        Reply”

        I thought it was 90% allocation and 10% mental? 😛

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 1:52 am

          I think selecting/sticking to your allocation might be 90% mental.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 6:48 am

      RE:>Safest Selling Point. After a market has advanced for a long time and made Final High and has the First Sharp quick Decline, then rallies and makes the Second Lower Top…

      2nd, Check out the last chart on this page. Guy walked away from the market in May 2008 based on trend analysis. Smart move. Same as what Gann’s talking about.

      http://education.wallstreetsurvivor.com/identify-t

      If I remember correctly, there’s something of the Dow Theory in such trend analysis as well – measuring the djia and djta for higher highs and lower lows. Both must be in trend or some such thing to pronounce a bull or bear market.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 11:18 am

        Les- I enjoyed the tutorial, thanks.

  56. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 1:30 am

    Just finished reading today’s blog after work. Great posts everyone. It really helps me as I am gone most of the day.

    OK VB!! I look at it this weekend.

    Obviously I let go of KGC/AUY a little early, but that’s OK. I’m sticking to my plan as it has worked well for the past month. Not big gains, but green trades none the less. AND it is a good learning experience for me.

    ChrisM- I have not forgotten about HEK…just busy and as this is a long term trade I’m working on the details of my answer. Thanks for your patience.

    I hope to have my IOU vouchers back from the printer tomorrow. Just being prudent.

  57. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 2:29 am

    “..failing to place a stop loss order and overtrading have been the cause of over 90 per cent of the failures in Wall Street. Therefore, in order to make a success he must act in a way to overcome the weak points which have caused the ruin of others.”

    He also notes that 10% of the time a stop loss will take you out at the bottom (ie, market makers will take the market down and catch your stop loss before allowing prices to reverse). You are, however, compensated for this the nine times out of ten a stop loss saves your –s.

  58. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 2:51 am

    However, I would encourage incorporating any/all of the disparate rules/recommendations you are able to appreciate at any point in your developement as a trader. Oftentimes (actually, most times), we need not understand why before we act in accordance with commonly accepted rules.

    I plan to immediately incorporate the three that strike a chord with me this evening-

    (a) Go with the trend, which also means first waiting for a trend to clearly reveal itself.

    (b) Set a stop loss. I suppose it’s like strapping in before starting the engine, installing smoke detectors, buying hazard insurance, or anything else that protects us from ourselves.

    (c) Keep position sizes manageable. Gann suggests a limit of 10% of capital. I use 6%, but of course I have gone as high as 3-4x that.

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 2:59 am

      “(c) Keep position sizes manageable. Gann suggests a limit of 10% of capital. I use 6%, but of course I have gone as high as 3-4x that.”

      Dynamic position size calculator I use:

      http://oak.ucc.nau.edu/del/stockcalcs/sizer.aspx

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 3:06 am

        Mac- Very nice, thanks.

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 3:06 am

      2nd-“(c) Keep position sizes manageable. Gann suggests a limit of 10% of capital. I use 6%, but of course I have gone as high as 3-4x that.”

      Interesting…That’s what I have done on intuition I guess. Still working through the stop loss though. My best trades ( I think) have been averaging down in wide scale. It seems the best moves come off the bottom. Perhaps that’s my inability to spot a trend change and instead feel like I’m chasing.

      For now sticking with the “kick them in the shin and run like hell” approach.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        July 2, 2009 at 3:14 am

        Mark- LOL. I know you’re 6’5″, but when you’re outnumbered and they have weapons, you can’t beat running like hell. Being a hero isn’t much fun when you’re dead, right?

        • MarkW(118083 comments)-
          July 2, 2009 at 3:21 am

          2nd- Only weapons I have are my friends here…I’ll take that any day. And no, the first thing you learn as a Firefighter is a dead hero becomes a liability to your team.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 3:37 am

      For common sense methods for doing all of these things I highly recommend Dave Landry’s web site, once a week “the week in Charts” and his daily e-mail, “market in a minute”, all free. His site has lots of info on entries, setting stops, moving them up and how to really see and stay with trends. He is known as a “swing trader” and has a couple books on chart patterns and swing trading, but his idea is to get into a trade and stay with it as long as the trend lasts, which could be years (in normal markets).

      That’s why I’m hoping for a trend….some day….

  59. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 2:55 am

    “You are, however, compensated for this the nine times out of ten a stop loss saves your $$s.”

    I wonder what that really means? Does that mean that 9 times out of 10 that a stop-loss was triggered the asset went to zero? or never recovered, ever? Hmmm.

    I know, for a fact, that at least 75% of my stop-losses that got hit in Oct/Nov have in fact recovered – some WAY higher.

    edit: I don’t know that for a fact – I’m going to go check now. It just feels like that.

    edit: yep, it’s actually more than 75%.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 3:08 am

      If you are moving your stops up as price rises, then that would explain the 9 times out of ten it saves your a$$, it locks in your profits. There’s going to be a few times that the stop loss kicks in before the price rises enough to cover costs, but the profits from the other nine should overcome the one loss.

  60. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 2:55 am

    “A change in trend often occurs just before or just after holidays.”

    Interesting that July 4 is flagged as an important date.

  61. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 3:29 am

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qneh8eJTcas

    For all the beautiful wives/girlfriends out there.

  62. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 3:32 am

    The new Prime minister of finance for Japan went to college @…HARVARD. God, their everywhere. How much you want to bet he interned @ GS?

  63. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 4:19 am

    2nd, Mark: Have you heard if the governators new scrip are convertible for US treasuries?

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 4:42 am

      CP- Sorry, man…I tried to find the link, but you CAN trade a $10.00 CA. IOU for any kids “Happy Meal” at MCD. I’m going to hold tight for a #3 value meal.(small)

      Want to here something scary? I have subs that are going to receive this “paper” soon.

    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 4:48 am

      ALOHA !!

      So the tenth largest global economy … CALIFORNIA … is broke and handing out IOUs and so is the US government. They’re called FRNs …

      So now you want to convert California IOUs for US IOUs? HA!! Maybe we can BUNDLE them and sell them to CHINA! All it needs is a AAA … Foreign idiots will buy any paper with a AAA … That’s right Chinese students I’m laughing at you! HA!!

  64. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 4:40 am

    ALOHA !!

    Man … someone at the US TREASURY hammered the inflation button on Tuesday, June 30th, the last day of the month!!!

    On Monday, June 29, 2009 the US PUBLIC DEBT was at $11.29TRIL USD and then in one days time it ballooned to $11.48TRIL USD … that’s a $190BIL USD increase in 24 hours! UNREAL-L-L-L!!! That in no way can be perceived and played off as “deflationary”! It matters not what the stock market did or real estate prices … that’s THE DEBT! Another $600BIL more and the ceiling will need to be raised again …

    This DEBT will never be “paid off”, because as any credit card holder knows you can never pay off your debt by just paying the “minimum due”. According to the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT we only pay the “minimum” interest due. If we were paying off the PUBLIC DEBT then government would be shrinking and so would the DEBT, but instead the opposite is happening.

    The total mismanagement and treasonous “taxation without representation” is just plain EVIL … This is the stuff you expect from tin-horn Fifth World dictators. As I have said many times a CHIMP with a “dartboard of decisions” could do just as good a job governing America as the two party aristocracy of BUSH and OBAMA! Chances are the CHIMP would completely miss the dartboard 70% of the time! Plus, we only need to feed the CHIMP bananas …

    Man, such amazing CHANGE I have never seen before … Hummmmm … MORE DEBT … BIGGER GOVERNMENT … GIVE BANKS ALL OUR MONEY … CRUSH PROFITS … GO BROKE … that’s radical dude!

    UNREAL-L-L-L!!!

  65. jock(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 4:43 am
    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 8:59 am

      ALOHA !!

      jock … Yep … gotta love the Aussie production now model!!!

      With production well funded … delist … go private and hand out gold dividends to shareholders. Forget the treacherous exchanges with the likes of Canaccord and Sprott!

      When does MicroSoft start selling VISTA forward?

      NSM… thanks …

  66. holdenll(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 4:53 am

    Imagine what the IRS would do to me if I gave them an IOU!

  67. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 4:58 am

    Link 1 states china is worried and wants diversification to be discussed/
    http://tinyurl.com/n3nbhy

    Link 2 states everything is peachy for usd.
    http://tinyurl.com/lojsxz

    I should email each article to the other reporter. Let them duke it out.

  68. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 8:06 am
  69. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 9:34 am

    ALOHA !!

    I had to drive into HILO to the FEDEX station today so I called up CASEY … Mr. Tao … We met up at a small lunch place by the Bay for smoothies. It was a pleasure to make his acquaintance. As serene as his posts … I am always impressed with the Caraistas I meet. I look forward to our next visit …

    Every day I drive into town it seems the price of gas goes up! A week ago it was $3.04 and now I saw it at $3.31USD per gallon.

    I had to laugh as I bought some honey root beer today at the local Island Natural, health food store. It used to come in a bigger bottle, 16oz, now still the same price only 12 oz bottle. How does the CPI capture that data? I think Ben would say, “The honey root beer inflation index HRBI is under control and shows no signs of elevating and if anything will moderate in the medium term.” But where’s my other four ounces Ben?

    The only free thing I did today was go to my CPA and get some legal docs notarized. My CPA also runs a real estate biz and was telling me the price of houses on the Big Island have been rising over the past month. I jokingly told him maybe Inouye phoned a price rise in!

    I was also at Home Depot picking up some 1×3 and 1×4 trim … I also had to buy a couple exterior light fixtures. No noticeable price declines there!

    Went to Office Max and bought a fax film roll, box of two, Panasonic FA55, nearly $40.00USD. Price has gone up over 25% in six months time. Works out to be 50% annual! Printer cartridges can break you! They cost more than the printer! May as well auction those off at Sotheby’s!

    Food here … Forget it! May as well auction it at Sotheby’s as well!

    Electric bill $239 for June … Not going down!

    HMSA(health insurance)no way … ALWAYS UP!!

    So the basics like food, water, medicine, gas, office supplies and shelter … UP … UP … UP! So that’s deflation?

    Hummmmmmm????

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      July 2, 2009 at 12:05 pm

      “I had to laugh as I bought some honey root beer today at the local Island Natural, health food store. It used to come in a bigger bottle, 16oz, now still the same price only 12 oz bottle. How does the CPI capture that data?”

      A good example of a reverse split. Like AIG it’s a good thing. Right?

  70. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    July 2, 2009 at 9:51 am

    ALOHA !!

    Anyone here have any idea how many “Executive Orders” FDR issued when he was President? The total was 3,728 …

    FDR XO LINK: http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/executive

    Clinton issued 364 … Bush #1 issued 166 … Bush #2 issued 284 … Reagan issued 381 … Carter 320 … Nixon 346 … LBJ 324 … JFK 214 …

    By far FDR went totally looney tunes on Executive Orders! FDR issued ten times as many Executive Orders than any other President. If he did one per day then that is 10.2 years worth! Most of them are age and environment related, plus a couple gold ones …

    Obama has done ten so far. I think Executive Order should be eliminated. Go read some of Obama’s and FDR’s … They are part of the “long train of abuses” …

    IT IS …

  71. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 5, 2009 at 3:22 am

    Biogen, its being taken down pretty hard (folks had wanted a buy-out)… Oct. 22 ( or earlier ) is FDA decision for U.S. approval… Trend line could possibly take this one to the $ 19.70 range ( maybe sticks at $ 21 )… imho, it could race back to $ 28.00 range over 3 week period if $ 20-ish is hit….

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