Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., May 27, 2009

[7:27am ET] One of the reasons that people are so anxious today is that Interventionists from Washington and Wall Street have seized the opportunity caused by their own actions of the past several years to establish a new paradigm for America. Society in America is being changed without the people

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328 Comments

  1. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 12:48 pm

    Good morning.

    New:

    ATVI – Brean Murray Initiates Coverage with a Buy. Price Target = $15
    BBBY – Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $42
    BBY – Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with a Perform. Price Target = $40
    ERTS – Brean Murray Initiates Coverage with a Hold.
    INTC – Roth Capital Initiates Coverage with a Hold. Price Target = $15

    Price Target Raised:

    RIMM – from $75 to $90 @ AmTech Research. Buy

    ————

    Other Stocks of Possible Interest:

    HMY – Downgraded to Neutral @ UBS

  2. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 1:04 pm

    There is another freedom fighter now trying to get into the Senate. Rand Paul or Ron Paul’s son is going for the Kentucky senate seat opening up.

    Also, the people are slowly being educated…YAL or young Americans for Liberty and other grass roots organizations, and I hope your prediction of the great fall of HB&B comes true…I hope they (American Citizens) realize how important this is!

    Lots of hope for sure!

  3. jack black(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 1:10 pm

    Soulek, good post and summary of the issue that you posted yesterday.
    I agree that Feds successfully ignited the inflation and there is no coming back.

    Faber is very vocal about in his newest interview:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=adviser&T=F

    However, there is one thing, Feds have no control were the hot money goes to. If the funny money all go to commodities and especially oil (which is happening already), that will cut the branch on which the world economy resides and will create a big dose of deflation again, just like it happened in 2008.

    Either way, USA is doomed, unless something happens that changes everything, ie. global war in which US prevails (like WW2) or a new discovery that puts US again on the technological top (like PC or internet).

  4. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 1:12 pm

    but today feels like it could turn bearish.

    Hey…Anybody got any good trading ideas?

    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 1:24 pm

      hi shark,

      I’m thinking more miners. northgate minerals? NXG

      • French_Canuck(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 1:31 pm

        NXG is overbought with RSI 75. IMHO you might be chasing it here. Just my 2C’s.

        DYOD

        • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
          May 27, 2009 at 1:32 pm

          french,

          thanks, will hold.

          • Rugger09(118083 comments)-
            May 27, 2009 at 1:52 pm

            Speaking of miners: Is anyone planning on attending the presentation sessions for Goldcorp and Agnico?

            Speaking of weather: -19 with the wind and light flurries this morning.

          • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
            May 27, 2009 at 3:54 pm

            Rugger, your post makes me feel better about living in Edmonton :) Our snow finally stopped a week and a half ago…

          • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
            May 27, 2009 at 5:37 pm

            Rugger: “Speaking of miners: Is anyone planning on attending the presentation sessions for Goldcorp and Agnico?”

            There will be two or three at least. Pls send me your best questions and I’ll pass them along. Thx.

  5. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 1:21 pm

    COST – Price Target Raised from $49 to $56 @ Jefferies & Co. Buy

  6. ellbowie(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    Something funny going on with CDE…premarket +$12.00 ???

  7. number2son(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 1:52 pm

    Let’s see if yesterday’s rally is for real and has legs or was just a pause before more selling. Tight stop in case it’s the former.

    Update: Well, that didn’t take long. I was wrong and should have waited through first hour of trading to get a better feel for market pulse.

  8. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:00 pm

    DOW – numbers raised at Barclays through 2010. Company is aggressively cutting costs, including synergies from the Rohm & Haas deal. Equal-weight rating and new $18 price target.

    UTX – target raised at UBS to $58. Company faces easier year/year comparisons in the second half of the year, when restructuring efforts will kick in. Buy rating.

    ——–

    More on INTC:

    Rated new Hold at Roth Capital. $15 price target. Company will likely see pricing pressures, as customers are shifting toward lower priced PC’s

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 3:44 pm

      DOW – Thanks for the upgrade info, I’ve also heard thr Rohm & Haas family are selling their shares, and that may be why the price has been falling the past few days.

      I see the Barclays upgrade as possibly an attempt at getting the family a better price for their shares, but once they’ve completed their sale the next leg up can begin.

  9. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:12 pm

    Some pretty crazy price movements in the home builders this morning. Lennar first up 5%, now flat, within 30 minutes, on big volume.

    • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 3:00 pm

      Yes, I noticed BDK had some crazy moves also.

      FD: long

  10. tgifbipo(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:16 pm
  11. ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    Bill’s comments of late have been very interesting, and readers need to pay particular attention to the news we’re currently been fed, and how the market reacts. It does appear fishy.

    In Wednesday’s daily report, Bill said:

    “The speed with which the S&P futures rallied, and the sectors targeted for purchase, really makes one wonder if some large institutions knew the contents of the Consumer Confidence report, and had lined up the scripts to send to the mass media outlets they control.”

    I read a LOT of commentary over the long holiday weekend on the economy and the markets, and the general consensus was overall quite bearish. One comment that caught my eye on Monday in a different forum was “everyone sounds bearish, so the market will probably rally on Tuesday.”

    Don’t think that those in control don’t peruse the various forums and discourse to gauge the sentiment of the populace. It seems well within the realm of possibility to me that the news articles on shopping malls being either very slow or being closed, are published with intent to sway opinion.

    With all the advantages that the internet brings to individual investors (instantaneous access to news, prices, etc), those in control can just as easily use it against us.

    All this said, it would not surprise me to see the market burst out of the small congestion range of the last 2 1/2 weeks, and then fall back. See the action in very early January of this year for a similar setup where the market broke out of a 3 week consolidation and subsequently failed.

    We need to be careful how we interpret what we read, what we see on TV, and balance it with common sense and solid logic. This forum that Bill Cara has formed and nurtured is an excellent starting point. Thanks again, Bill.

    take care all/ToddinFL

    • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 2:36 pm

      Another commentator who seems to have integrity is the bond wrap guy at “Seeking Alpha.com”…last name Jansen….his wrap up yesterday was interesting regarding the sale of treasuries….it dove tails with Bill’s comments today….it was entitled….”Something’s A Foot” IMSO (S for small)

  12. Grym(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:21 pm

    What the pop economists like “Smart Money” magazine and “official” experts are saying.

    I am posting this MSNBC article because the reaction from readers seems hopeful that the BSers are losing ground. Could indicate a first step toward electing more like the Pauls and forcing reality on Congress.

    “When will this horrible recession be over? According to one surprising source, it’s over right now.

    The source is Robert J. Gordon, an acclaimed macroeconomist and professor at Northwestern University. It’s surprising to learn he thinks the recession is over, because he is one of seven members of the elite Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Analysis. These are the people who decide officially, for the record books, when recessions begin and end — usually many months after the fact, when the decision is really obvious. I’m unaware of any previous case in which a member of this committee has stepped forward and declared the end of a recession in real time.”

    http://tiny.cc/Plqn5

    Replies from readers unimpressed.

    • jack black(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 3:23 pm

      One has to remember that the 2000 recession was officially over by the end of 2001 yet the stocks sinked till late 2002 (reference: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2000s_recession).

      Same with the leading economic indicator. It is rising now giving a huge boost to this rally, yet everyone forgets that the leading indicator went up a lot between 2001-2002 followed by another bust.

      Bill hit the nail with the sentiment being a lagging indicator. Actually, it correlates fairly well with equity and is useless, except for a contrarian trade.

  13. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    ?

  14. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    no joke, here is the exact dream i had last night that i woke up in a panic from before i realized i was dreaming…

    i dreamt i awoke around 7 am, went to make my morning coffee and checked my computer to open up the Kitco page to check the gold price action overnight.

    i remember hitting the “refresh” button and the screen jumped, the POG was reading $1107.

    i almost fell off the chair and was trying to pull up the bloomberg headlines to find out what must have happened overnight, or that mabey it was a mistake…

    i was so agitated i woke up and went to check kitco just in case….

    a dream or a premonition?

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 2:28 pm

      What did you have for dinner?

    • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 2:28 pm

      Dr. “C”,

      Check your oral temperature, it may be Gold Fever! 😉

      Bill, thanks again for your latest comments and analysis….today was a light bulb “click on” type of day…….I hope your site is growing in popularity and that your business model catches on all over the globe……what’s that older expression….”power to the people”…..

    • yvrapx(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 2:30 pm

      Dream/premoniton doesn’t matter, $1107 sounds good to me!

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 2:34 pm

      It is good to have a dream but it is problem when one start sleepwalking toward Kaimu’s gold stack?

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 4:07 pm

      dr.cosa – Perhaps you need to take some time off. But don’t go without first taking a substantial position in PM’s. I also have dreams while sleeping but very rarely remember anything about them. Maybe I sleep better that way…

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 5:53 pm

      I tend to give these sorts of dreams a lot of creedence.

      BTW this morning I wrote:

      Submitted by shark_attack (877 comments) on Wed, 05/27/2009 – 09:12 #29533

      “Maybe it’s the weather but today feels like it could turn bearish.”

      That was a good premonition too eh?

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 6:12 pm

        you got ***** five star for that

  15. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:27 pm

    I was cruising through the CNBS’s, Bloomberg’s, etc. last night and caught Cramer saying we should now be buying the dips.

    That usually means 666 is just around the corner.

    Booyah.

    • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 2:29 pm

      does Cramer have a conscience?

    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 2:58 pm

      what’s up with appl and how about RSI values????

      i am confuused….

      I added to JNJ this morning since it was the only one down. Should this be the time to sell KGC and GG if the RSI values are so high??

      vb

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 3:12 pm

        rumored to come with a lower priced iphone

        http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10505857/1/t

      • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 3:12 pm

        GG took out resistance and KGC is at resistance, if your are long and want to protect gains why not set stops, mental or hard, and let the market take you out. Maybe others here could give options ideas such as selling calls if you think that momentum is waning.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 5:08 pm

      Perhaps he and his fellow dips will buy.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 5:44 pm

      666 sounds like a nice dip to buy, thanks for the target!

  16. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:39 pm

    Just in case anyone picked up some OCLS on my comments a while back…Time for me to say good-bye to this local Co. Received FDA approval for it’s wound care line today. Off @ 2.44 (+138%).

  17. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    Pretty brisk gold volume this morning. Attempts to give gold a beat down were met with big buying pressure.

    Heh at least that’s how I see it anyway. :)

    80k futures contracts traded today and so far we’re only an hour into the trading day. Sometimes that’s the entire daily volume!

    Wow, and there it just took off – gold +2.

  18. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 3:13 pm

    They tried to bomb gold up again. Drove it down $2, and buyers treated it like a half off sale at their favorite retailer. All that’s left of the attempt is a long lower candlestick shadow and a big volume line. Silver as well.

    I gotta say, this price action is unusual, and very impressive. It makes me think that Dr. Cosa’s dream may eventually come true!

    Dr. Cosa: I have a dream! Gold at 1107! :)

  19. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 3:23 pm
    • Les(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 3:41 pm

      Guess they don’t need to be educated. There won’t be diddly squat jobs for them anyway. See how the state (children) and feds (your soldiers) throw away their most precious resources – human beings.

      Still, plenty of privately educated kids to inherit the thrones of finance and political power.

      The US ain’t finished yet.

  20. yvrapx(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 3:26 pm
  21. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    Ok, so we have a 10 year auction today, and a 30 year auction tomorrow.
    Perhaps this is why the volume in gold yesterday as well as today?
    People trying to get into their positions prior to a possible treasury auction failure?

    Perhaps that’s why all the dips are getting bought, but we’re not seeing a massive
    spike up. And that’s why the S&P is trading in such an incredibly tight range
    right now.

    Auction results (according to a previous auction results PDF) are at 13:00 ET.
    Should be interesting. Maybe sell half the position right before the news,
    keeping the other half “just in case” there’s a breakout?

    FD: back in gold again, due to Dr. Cosa’s Dream.
    (just kidding about the dream part)

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 3:47 pm

      Hey Dave- “People trying to get into their positions prior to a possible treasury auction failure?” That’s my guess. So… pressing the bet on TBT (adding @ 55.15).

      Also took OCLS profits and added to UNG @ 13.52. Kinda like using this “house money” thing.

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 4:50 pm

        hey mark,

        great score on the OCLS! Kudos my friend! :))

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 3:57 pm

      davefairtex – “Ok, so we have a 10 year auction today, and a 30 year auction tomorrow.”

      My understanding was today’s auction was for 5yr notes and tomorrows was 7yr notes. Never the less, it’s safe to say today’s auction activity, if disappointing, is likely to have a negative effect on equities prices. There are a great many who view yesterday’s successful auction as contrary to the remainder of the week, as the remaining auctions focus on longer term treasuries.

      Additionally, I heard the FED will be purchasing 2012 through 2018 issues today.

      We’ll just have to wait for the results.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 4:05 pm

        CP – My understanding was today’s auction was for 5yr notes and tomorrows was 7yr notes.

        Yes you have the straight scoop on that, I misread the calendar. :) 5 year notes today, 7 year notes tomorrow.

        http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt

        Wow, gold and silver are just going nuts. Silver +0.36 today and gold +6.

  22. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 3:52 pm

    Mackinaw,

    I posted this in reply to your query yesterday, reposting in case you didn’t see it:

    Some quick digging found this site with a bunch of stats for last 5 years:

    http://www.euromonitor.com/factfile.aspx?country=US

    numbers in millions
    annual disposable income 2008: 10,279,820.75
    gdp 2008: 14,493,188.56

    Which works out to the oft quoted 70% consumption making up GDP, assuming 0% savings which was pretty much the cast.

    so 1% of disposable income = 102,798 million, or 0.7% of GDP

    They say savings rate is now at something like 4% vs 0% a few years ago, so technically this would subtract 2.8% from GDP (if disposable income stayed the same).

    monthly disposable income per capita figures:

    http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/percapin.htm

    Not sure how disposable income has been rising the last few months given the multi-million dollar layoffs. Maybe just cause fuel has gotten cheaper? Can’t see that sustaining. And if it doesn’t, there will be combination of declining disposable income AND increased savings, thus an even bigger bite out of GDP…

  23. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 3:59 pm

    So what happened to UNG at 10:20 (approx) eastern? It was going down hard, and then abruptly reversed course, all the moves taking place on above average volume for the day. BTW nice buy-in point, Mark, house money or no house money!

    The market is behaving very strangely today. Things are afoot.

  24. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    gold bouncing up against overhead resistance.

    weve been here before, but its tricky to really say which direction is next.
    typically this was the prelude to a plunge down after the drift upwards against overhead resistance. but w/ volume what it is and w/ all the bond auction talk i cant say.

    i trashed my shorts yesterday and will wait and see, i dont want to get burned again, even if it is with a small portion of my account.

    i think too many people are anticipating a bad bond auction, the contrarian in me is thinking it might be that bad, but spun well enough into a “not as bad as everyone thought, so that means its bullish good news” type scenario.

    i wouldnt bet on a bond failure, but i would bet that Central Banks will make sure to step in and support any potential gaps in demand because no central bank wants a crisis at this point.

  25. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:02 pm

    gotta take it to a specialist association to look after it.

    Bloody thing keeps biting me.

    night all.

    ps. see its another same old same old. U can’t touch this…

    rinse and repeat.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 4:18 pm

      Biting ferret – Have rabies been eradicated in Switzerland? Never allow an unfamiliar animal the opportunity to bite.

  26. Milesquare(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:13 pm
  27. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:14 pm

    Just checked the Kitco ticker and was a bit surprised to see silver bumping up against the $15 mark!

  28. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:16 pm

    CP- Still holding FTWR? This might be a good profit point. If credit tightens again that will cost them.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 4:37 pm

      Mark – Absolutely I’ve still got FTWR! This is an infrastructure play from my perspective, the Obama stimulus hasn’t been rolled out yet has it?

      I’m coming closeer to a double bagger on this and wishing I’d’ve bought more even though the position is my second largest. Will probably feel the same way about CHK and DOW going into the future…

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 10:12 pm

      Mark – Good work on those trades today, there must be something other than compounds that promote risky sexual behavior in your homemade concoction. 😉

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 1:45 am

        CP/VB- Thanks for the props…But of course OCLS ended the day +266%. No complaints, my plan was to sell on the news and I stuck with the plan. I was able to trade it a few times latter for a few shekels before I had to leave.

        Now the hard part for TBT. How long before the FED comes out, AGAIN, and issues a statement they will purchase more treasuries. Frankly, I don’t think it will be too long.

        CP- No magic in the moonshine. The trick is to get the counter party to partake.

        UNG- No new news here for me, other than the clock is ticking louder and louder. Now at 70% and thinking of increasing positions size to 125%. Volume sure looks like accumulation to me.

        Dave, your the volume Guru. What’s your take?

  29. newbee(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:18 pm

    thanks

  30. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:19 pm

    Nice follow through today after yesterdays big move. FD-long

  31. Ross(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:28 pm

    I have the sound muted but I think he is yelling—LASSIE, COME HOME.

  32. FireFly(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 4:57 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 5:42 pm

      Someone should explain to Bair that where there’s a will, there’s a way. Bair is either naive, or she’s aiding and abetting the plan. HB&B will find a way to buy their own “toxic” assets while offing the losses onto someone else if that’s their goal. That’s the purpose of this entire exercise involving the global economic meltdown.

  33. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 5:12 pm

    I purchased a second AAPL put…QAA SC at 2.00 this day.

    I could be early, but I will see.

  34. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 5:47 pm

    Well they’ve been selling gold ever since noon, and boy this thing will simply explode at the slightest touch. The 5 minute RSI is 6.5!

    These auction days are exciting! :)

    • dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 5:58 pm

      not surprising, i think too much bearishness was baked in the cake for bond sales that people had dire visions of that didnt come true, so gold is backing off the panic hype.

      that being said, weve got longer dated treasuries thursday, the levels of Central Bank buying will be a critical indicator as people seem to believe as long as non-US central banks are buying thats “foreign purchases” when in reality its other CB’s just cannibalizing eachother’s bonds.

      • Seamus(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 6:04 pm

        “people had dire visions”

        Agree. It’s like the media overreacting to information or what may happen.

        I’ve opined about this before, but I suspect a gradual erosion in longer term Treasury sales . . . . eventually it will increase more noticeably (as the snowball rolls down the hill), but it takes awhile to reach there . . . not a NY minute like most traders are focusing on.

  35. baz22(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 5:50 pm

    San Diego, American Society of Gene Therapy – May 27 -30… Vical will present Phase III clinical trial info. on Allovectine-7(r) for Metastatic melanoma ( along with h1n1 info )…

  36. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 5:54 pm

    I’ll take the teenie I guess. Probably should double up here, but trying to cut down some risk.

  37. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:03 pm

    Tue May 26, 2009 4:56pm EDT

    “By Dena Aubin

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Scores of companies are being punished in the bond market as the Obama administration’s policies on General Motors and Chrysler LLC create new risks for creditors, a veteran bond strategist says.

    As GM teeters toward a bankruptcy filing and Chrysler attempts to restructure in bankruptcy court, the Obama administration is offering most of the recovery value of those companies to “a favored political class, in this case the United Auto Workers, leaving creditors with very slender debt recoveries,” Christopher Garman, founder of Garman Research in Orinda, California, said in a report released late on Friday.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/americasDealsNews/i

    Do whatever it takes to reward those who created the problems while punishing the savers, investors, and risk takers.

  38. jack black(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:13 pm

    What happened? I was worried my stops would bet hit on my short positions when suddenly the markets tanked hard.

    To me it looks just like the action in the first week in June 2008. Third and final push up against the resistance followed by a sharp sell off with a new lower low.

  39. jack black(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:20 pm

    I posted that on another blog but got no feedback.
    What if the current bond sale fiasco and erosion of confidence in USA will force the Fed to withdraw some money (mini deflation) to bump $ and bonds up to bring rates lower and shake out inflation speculators? After all, banks sold their shares and small investors will be left to hold the bags.
    I believe they pulled the trick a year ago (and perhaps early summer 2007) and may do it now.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 6:42 pm

      Jack Black – I’m not quite following your logic but, if you mean the FED might stop the practice of buying treasuries and crowding the market, then we will see if the market is willing to absorb massive governmental debt without intervention. Increased taxation is just another mechanism for inflation.

      Personally, I believe the FED is using strong arm tactics to encourage central banks to purchase treasuries. Perhaps one of these tactics is the threat of QE, for which they have demonstrated willingness.

  40. nemo(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:25 pm
    • jack black(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 6:38 pm

      There was another compelling evidence on that posted on Traderfeed:
      http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/05/is-suppleme

      His is not into conspiracy theories but concluded:
      “Given the concentration of this program activity in the last hour, a skeptic might be led to conclude that this trading is more designed to aid the liquidity of participating trading firms than the liquidity of the marketplace. There is nothing wrong with this–unless the activity is funded in part or whole by a stock exchange working in conjunction with financial institutions backstopped by the government, creating a less than level playing field for independent traders and investors.”

  41. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:27 pm

    It appears today’s treasury auction was better than anticipated, and perhaps sentiment has changed in the face of tomorrow’s auction but I have to believe tomorrow’s auction, while being longer term notes, now has a much better chance of following the trend. Perhaps something else is afoot…

  42. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:34 pm

    Barry Ritholz had an article a few weeks back about “countertrend tuesdays”. You shorts, stay frosty! Anything could happen tomorrow.

    For me, I’m playing short billy ball. When I get 4% – 6% move in my short, I close it out, and wait for another opportunity. When I get greedy and look for more, I almost always get caught in a reversal, and I have to wait it out.

    One pattern I have noticed is a reverse-U shaped daily chart. Great example: JWN today. They tank the stock on the open (probably popping the stocks of anyone who is long, but I dunno, since I’m not long), and then drive it up to 3-4% gain, enough to surpass the high of yesterday (popping the stops of anyone who went short the previous day), and then it either goes horizontal or drops down to close basically where it opened.

    They do this not daily, but every 3-4 days.

    i have seen this more times than I can count. After the first time, I started to put my stops much further up, and I’ve become much pickier on my entry points. I haven’t been stopped out since – but my risk is certainly higher.

    EDIT: actually, I use two different stops. The first is the “entry point stop” which is quite tight, for picking the top of the U. The second is the interday stop, which I set after market close, to avoid HB&B’s stop hunting games. I often get stopped out before I get a good entry point, but I don’t lose very much. I have not yet been stopped out on my inter-day stops.

    Short billy ball. It’s the only way I’ve found to play the game with HB&B while short.

    FD: short retailers, REITs, and the XLF.

  43. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:39 pm

    Not sure I would let that spike down pull me into the short ultras. But it’s a start.

  44. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:40 pm
    • MtnGntx(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 9:04 pm

      ummmm…. you sound a lot like me Bill…..hehe…. I wont hold that against you.

  45. bobbor(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 6:41 pm

    It seems to me that all the big U.S. Banks have to do is arrange among themselves to buy each others toxic assets.

    Regards

  46. baz22(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 7:05 pm

    speaking on solar… Sunpower ( spwra ) is the system in use there, and panels were displayed behind him……….

  47. baz22(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 7:15 pm

    rsi has room for mojo… very ‘ emotional ‘ stock.. volume has been sharp on advancing candles…

  48. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 7:20 pm

    ALOHA !!

    One of my suppliers is being forced to quit using ADVANTA credit card. He is one of the guys who makes money off credit cards by paying off his balance every month and getting rebates. He tells me he makes $1500USD per year off ADVANTA rebates. Now he is looking at CAPITAL ONE as his next choice for rebates. But how long can the rebate model last in this enviroment?

    ADVANTA has informed him that they are currently running a 20%+ default rate and to make up for that they have raised interest rates to 36% for those who still carry balances. EARTH TO ADVANTA CEO!

    May 31, 2009 will be the last day he can have charges applied to his ADVANTA card. On June 1, 2009 ADVANTA will no longer use a credit card model, but a debt collection model. Not sure how long a credit card company can exist on just DEBT COLLECTION when default rates are rising above 20%.

    What sort of short action is on ADVANTA and other credit card companies that have these rebate models, like CAPITAL ONE? By the way I get COMEON OFFERS from CAPITAL ONE for my business almost every day. It is ridiculous that
    this has been going on for years now … What a waste of trees! In fact that is the main reason I would never consider CAPITAL ONE, they are way too agressive and wasteful. Their marketing dept seems clueless when it comes to “mailers”!

    ADVANTA its time for TARP WARP …

    • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 8:12 pm

      When I get offers in the mail, I always try to return the self addressed envelope empty. It’s my small way of saying No Thanks!

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 8:22 pm

        “I always try to return the self addressed envelope empty.” That should help the USPS keep postage rates down, how about inserting a check written in a negative amount as well?

      • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 4:08 am

        “When I get offers in the mail, I always try to return the self addressed envelope empty. It’s my small way of saying No Thanks!”

        I do the same thing (with most junk mail, when I have the energy to do more than rip it up and drop it in the trash can), except I stuff the envelope full of whatever crap they sent me, plus any trash lying around.

        Juvenile perhaps, but it makes me feel better…

        KC

  49. found(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 7:24 pm

    Glad I went with my gut and got in on these early today…but where is everyone headed this week? My mind is all over the place and I just can’t pick a trade other than sticking with the Ultra Shorts… any ideas? oh…and UNG…been slowly picking up more today, were due for a pop.

    • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 8:49 pm

      ditto…sold SRS early, but have a stop set on FAZ @5.27, profit is locked hoping it runs to close.

      edit: enough is enough took FAZ off @ 5.40

      edit 2: trying some SCO @ 21.10 for swing trade…..doji reversal trade hopefully

  50. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 8:00 pm

    kind of looks like a big train wreck to me. bac, rf up, all other banks down… BBBY upgraded and closing -.45.

    geezeers

    what’s next

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 8:42 pm

      I dunno vanillabean, bac wasn’t exactly a screamer today as far as I can tell… Perhaps they will be when their portfolio of mortgages reverses polarity due to a depreciated currency?

      Aside from perhaps 5yr notes, I’m experiencing difficulty identifying anything of consequence that increased in “value” today…

  51. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 8:12 pm

    Oh I see (a bit late), the long end went crashing again today. Oops, is that a freight train barreling down the track???

  52. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 8:26 pm

    I recall several months ago, Bill had mentioned a play in the bond markets involving a “trade of a generation”. With much dislocation now occurring in the bond markets, coupled with strength in precious metals, perhaps we are at the initial phase of Bill’s earlier but very noteworthy call?

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 8:37 pm

      Fireworks, do you have that link? Thx

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 9:01 pm

        Shiva – The term “TOG” refers to two concepts in my mind, the second of which has been a major topic of discussion here. The Trade Of a Generation involves selling treasuries and buying gold, and my perception is this aspect of trading is already in progress and gathering momentum.

        The second definition of this Three Letter Acronym (TLA) is a loving reference to “The Old Guy”. Thirdly, and according to wikipedia, TOG is a measure of thermal resistance commonly used in the textile industry.

        • Shiva(118083 comments)-
          May 27, 2009 at 9:12 pm

          CP, just wanted to re-read that blog. I think the treasury game is not over yet. There might be a run back to treasuries if another shoe falls somewhere (unless its the USD/US govt default). These are troubling times….

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            May 27, 2009 at 9:26 pm

            Shiva – We were discussing the subject in depth last year this time as TBT was in rally mode, you might look there. As I recall, we discussed the subject almost daily. There must be a thousand links listed when I google “Bill Cara TOG”.

            Here is a link that might be a starting place, the concept is simple yet brilliant, not magical.

            http://seekingalpha.com/article/107421-reflation-i

  53. Amerfefef(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 8:53 pm

    hey check out
    >>> http://www.iamned.com allowing free link submissions for finance/economics related blogs/websites

    Interesting link>>> http://www.iamned.com

    Lots of intriguing finance articles. Great website. I seriously suggest you bookmark it.

    each of the last five economic recoveries. ETF vehicles include DSV, VBR, PWY, IWN, RZV, JKL

    and UVT.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 8:57 pm

      No thanks!

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 9:02 pm

        Wish we had a botnet to take him offline. I wonder how much it would cost. :)

    • nemo(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 2:27 am

      BILL!!! THIS IS A SPAMMER!!! SECOND DAY IN A ROW THE SAME ENTRY HAS BEEN POSTED. BAN THE IP ADDRESS….

      Ah…please :)

  54. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 9:09 pm
  55. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 9:14 pm

    Golly, wonder if they can make up those lost revenues by increasing volume?

  56. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 9:33 pm

    thx, i remember reading it all last year. Now time to go back and do some more analysis. This is all rinse and repeat happening in the market, so there could be some nuggets of information from the older posts still very useful.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 9:40 pm

      ??????! 😉

  57. joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 10:04 pm

    A few posts here and elsewhere ( http://rurl.org/1l8p and http://rurl.org/1l8q ) talk of the dislocation in the bond markets and quantitative easing. I don’t understand either of these two terms. People seem to imply that these are major events. I’d be very grateful if people could post some useful pointers that can help me understand these. Thanks !

  58. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 10:19 pm

    We’re well past the initial phases of the TOG, which is shorting long bonds, notably the ten year. The low for TBT was $35.51 and we’ve worked up to 57.54 – 57.65 as of this moment aftermarket. The Fed will have to intervene or try to to keep interest rates low enough to not stifle housing, but that’s the catch 22 of our times isn’t it? I see much more printing and treasuries in our future. This is the part of the tour where they tell you to NOT LOOK DOWN….

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 10:47 pm

      TOG is coming and he is waiting.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 11:08 pm

        vinod – I just fell out of my chair laughing!

        • vinod(118083 comments)-
          May 27, 2009 at 11:13 pm

          Chickenpookie
          did you notice this
          Yesterday CNBC had a BREAKING NEWS: MARKET SURGES alert for 4 hours straight, for some odd reason the MARKET PLUNGES alert is nowhere to be found today

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            May 27, 2009 at 11:21 pm

            vinod – TV here is off but no surprise there, the pookie is hitting the fan again, I’m an unhappy chicken. ;(

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 11:12 pm

        good laugh… people have been asking the bull for repeat performance tho, so hes staying on the stage longer :)

    • tbar(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 10:59 pm

      I tried to raise this topic to no response a 2 or few weeks ago. Said something like…bonds are near 30 yr highs, a fall through the 2nd blue channel from the top would likely be bearish. A bounce at 110 seems likely. I dunno it just looks so sensible to me when you factor in the f.a.
      But what will the driver be I think was the question at the time and still is. Likely more than apparent when it comes to be.

      ps; does the double bottom at 104.81 and subsequent fib extention off that level suggest a top at 142.66? Jmho it does.

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 11:23 pm

        i had the same thought, looking at all the bond charts, they all look still bullish. What does the bond yield are factoring in (inflation? Risk? Competitive returns of stock or corporate bonds?). Overall the financial scenario has worsened and the LT bond yields are less than what they were 2 years ago. Confuses the heck out of me, this bond subject….

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 12:25 am

          They seem roughly in line with yields falling off their highs a while back. Now they are rising again, $USD falling again, but this time no running to treasuries on down days as in times gone by. Now it’s to hard assets like gold, silver, oil and corporate bonds with higher yields. The idea is low(est) risk return and with the $USD in mid-swan dive and our prospects falling as fast as our deficits are skyrocketing, treasuries apparently don’t look like good, low risk investments these days. More like wooden nickels. So demand for Treasuries falls, prices fall, yields to entice purchases go up. TLT goes down, TBT goes up.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 3:39 am

            To continue the thought….

            Interest rates are low, bonds should be go higher but not. No buyers for various reasons, so yield is climbing up.

            Where is the money going?
            a) not going to bonds
            b) not to stocks
            c) parked in sidelines?
            d) repayment of existing debts & contraction of credit lines, thereby whole pie is shrinking (corporates, hedge funds etc)
            e) Also chindia & others turning inwards investing in infrastructure etc to ward off recession there.

            more like d) & e) to me

            I remember seeing in some movies how they hawked the war bonds in 40s, maybe it will be that kind of a time….

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 3:48 am

            Hi Shiva,

            I hear differently about D in regards to the hedge funds. Money coming back in. And like a puppy that has strayed away from home, it might just go back to what it knows best…commodities. No other way to explain the price of crude.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 4:12 am

            Mark,
            Yes I should restate d). What I meant there is no bond buying/stock buying/carry trades. Only attractive area is commodity plays & parked cash goes there.

            What I learned from 2000 tech bubble is hot money just moves from one asset class to pump up another asset class. Just like it was not tech again, its not going to be real estate but something else. What something else is the million $ question (assuming reflation policy works).

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 4:34 am

            Shiva,
            Bingo!! It’s all about sector rotation. Hedge funds are “scalping” now like some of us. Look at the action in OCLS today. Average volume 30,000 shares. Today, 16.3M. Come on. Don’t underestimate the energy play though. This is the real deal LT. We (USA) had a small window to make a difference, and of course, we did nothing. Obama refuses to acknowledge the only possible bridge fuel we have is NG because he dosen’t want to offend the left. Sorry, I have to stop. No need to get upset on a good day for me.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 4:56 am

            i am thinking gold/silver, energy & few high fliers like AAPL. Should start narrowing my focus to these.

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 5:00 am

            Shiva, If you can get it, CHK looks like a great entry point at 20.00.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 5:21 am

            Mark,
            Technicals look good. Check out the Jan10, Jan11 option volumes on CHK, something is cooking

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 5:50 am

            Shiva, Just did , thanks. I’m working on my options trading and have just been approved by Schwab for advanced options. I think traders are building up their war chests here. And of course I have been doing the same. Still only 1/3 on PXP, HK, CHK, DVN, XTO, APA. 70% UNG, but like I said earlier, I might bump that up to 125%. Even If I increase my e/p guys to 2/3 and UNG to 100%, I’ll still be 45% cash.

            Just for the record. I own some stocks that I just hold on to. CE, CREE, V, RIMM, HEK (adding still/ was VERY surprised to see this one in the WSJ “adding on weakness” yesterday), SQM, NKE, CLB, BMRN, RGOB, FTWR, ADXM.

            Good luck.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        May 27, 2009 at 11:26 pm

        tbar – Good work, I hope your persistence is paying off! 😉

  59. Blowout Preventer(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 10:52 pm

    Good evening all,

    Cynical thought of the day. The Fed needs assistance at Treasury auctions and creates a disturbance in equity bull market to drive investors to “safety”.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 11:14 pm

      “The Fed needs assistance at Treasury auctions and creates a disturbance in equity bull market to drive investors to “safety”.”

      The effort seems to have backfired, I’m having difficulty identifying the safe place you’re referencing.

      Humpty-Dumpty syndrome. So much for creative financing, I hear the piper and the helicopter rotors a coming up from behind the hill.

  60. OldVet(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 11:30 pm

    Bill:

    What do you think this will do to the markets?

    http://tinyurl.com/yuc4st

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      May 27, 2009 at 11:44 pm

      how believable is this source? I wouldnt think they would jump to this option before exhausting all other including blockade

      • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 2:05 am

        I’d guess the (quite colorful) answer is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner

        • vinod(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 2:23 am

          And poster is only 3 hours old.
          As this site become more popular, we going to see lot more people to come in here and divert our attention to their agenda.

        • Illini(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 2:27 am

          Thank you Vad and Jock,

          I never heard of Mr. Turner before but now I know. If he’s too hot for Sean Hannity, that says it all.

          • casey(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 3:00 am

            well I will have a Ice Tea with that Nuclear War

            Seesh…

            Is it any wonder I threw my tv and news watching out the door… Lets get serious and have a few ice teas at the beach…

            Its life… live it

            not fear it or worry over what wont happen…

          • dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 3:46 am

            im sick and tired of the non-stop nuclear war propaganda coming from american media, theyve returned to 1950’s style bomb-shelter in your backyard-style fear mongering.

            Iran is not going to bomb the US, they have no plans to do so, the rhetoric coming from the media is always in response to the same question trick that everyone eats up:

            “if you were attacked or were certain of an attack would you strike back”,

            as a politician you must proclaim to defend your nation and answer yes to a possible attack, but you also must answer yes to the possibility of an impending attack. so the media simply takes it out of context and makes the headline “iran threatens to us nukes against isreal!!” or “iran wont remove nuclear option in a possible attack”, even though the article will say near the bottom that it was in response to the question of being attacked, the damage is done. add to that terrorism and bomb experts being asked pointed questions on the news networks like “so if iran was to use the bomb, what possible targets would they hit? new york? chicago? anytown usa??”, or the classic “so we know iran is a nuclear armed nation, not afraid to use it as their recent comments indicate, what does this mean for american policy in the region?”.

            ugh, i dont understand how people dont totally laugh at such attempts to distract us. yes north korea may have set off a nuclear bomb. india did it not too long ago either, and so did pakistan in testing, but people are only worried about the taliban getting their hands on the bombs. as if they would have to take over a nation w/ one of the worlds largest standing armies as opposed to buying WMD’s on the black market which have been proven to be floating around. the taliban has no viable chance at taking pakistans arsenal anymore than al-queda did when they attacked the pentagon, the nerve center of the american military. so all the talk about “the taliban are 50 miles from the capital” are hogwash designed to make you think a threat exists that doesnt, at least not at the moment.

            none of these states that so many americans think are the “enemy” actually are. most iranians just want a normal life like everyone else, the rhetoric is just the media taking the piss out of everyone as they run around panicking about bombs taht arent going off.

            malaria kills more people than bombs and war every year, why no panic for this very treatable and preventable disease for pete’s sake!!!?!

            lets drop all this pointless nuclear talk driving prices, gold went down after an alleged bomb blast, so lets stop attributing every gold price rise to global instability day to day. its not consistent. golds moving at its own pace.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 3:07 am

          I’m not too concerned about this yet, although I do know a few south Koreans who probably are.

          This article closely mirrors how I understand the subject:

          http://tinyurl.com/q99tyq

          I don’t think it wise to consult Hal Turner for anything, let alone an investment strategy.

      • jock(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 2:13 am

        Under the anti-proliferation treaty, nuclear powers have a legal obligation to reduce numbers of warheads, which is in return for non-nuclear states staying that way. Of course, the nuclear states have largely ignored their obligation.

        A US first strike against North Korea would, IMHO, not be rational. It would send the world the message that “might makes right” and that international law doesn’t matter. Why the global sheriff would undermine the law (as Bush did) escapes me.

        A first strike against North Korea would likely increase the resolve of all non-nuclear states to go nuclear ASAP.

        BTW, who is the “Turner Radio Network”? Do they deserve to be taken seriously? highlighted in this blog?

  61. GREgrad(118083 comments)-
    May 27, 2009 at 11:57 pm

    California, the only proposition that passed was the one preventing the legislature from getting pay increases if there is a budget deficit.
    Some odd observations that I had this morning (I’m in Boston, we have a budget issue of our own, so I was comparing it to the problems in California):
    California budget deficit, 21 billion. Massachusetts

    Cool site check it out folks. Tons of informative articles. Interesting Finance & Economic Articles free link submissions for economics, finance, and technical analysis articles from bloggers/websites

    • nemo(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 2:32 am

      SAME GUY!! GIVE HIM THE PRIEUR TREATMENT

      • Illini(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 2:43 am

        I second the motion. His first posts or two were confusing. Now its annoying. I did not bite on any of them. Prieur was also tedious and I read his noise for awhile but am glad he is out of here.

  62. Illini(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 12:39 am

    “From Business Week:

    Southwestern Energy (SWN)……………….3,662%
    Celgene (CELG)…………………………………..2,607%
    XTO Energy (XTO)……………………………….2,088%
    Stericycle (SRCL)………………………………..1,503%
    Gilead Sciences (GILD)………………………..1,491%
    Denbury Resources (DNR)……………………1,271%
    FLIR Systems (FLIR)……………………………1,190%
    Ventas (VTR)……………………………………….1,127%
    Range Resources (RRC)……………………….1,124%
    Lab Corp of America (LH)…………………….1,107%
    Quest Diagnostics (DGX)………………………..835%
    Chesapeake Energy (CHK)……………………..813%
    C.H. Robinson (CHRW)……………………………692%
    Varian Medical Systems (VAR)………………..677%
    Occidental Petroleum (OXY)…………………..634%
    EOG Resources (EOG)……………………………599%
    Express Scripts (ESRX)…………………………..595%
    EQT Corp (EQT)…………………………………….540%
    Apache Corp (APA)………………………………..486%
    CONSOL Energy (CNX)………………………….486%

    (Note: BW restricted the list to S&P 500 members with betas less than 1.)

    Posted by Eddy at 8:22 AM | Permalink”

    Lots of natural gas stocks there and some biotechs/medical.

  63. tango6(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 12:57 am

    Mostly I play the indexes and oex puts and calls – partly on technicals, partly on my mood – not very scientific I admit but, each to his own.

    As I have noted before, the dow was range bound between 7,800 and 8,100 from April 2 to April 28 – a little less than four weeks. And then it was/is range bound between 8,200 and 8,500, from May 4 to May 27 — again a bit less than four weeks.

    Szoo… what next? I dunno. But I think true bears were selling calls like bandits on the Tuesday runup. I considered it myself, but I am far too cautious (trsl: chicken).

    I am a cautious man but I have made up my mind: if the DOW drops below 8,200 tomorrow or Friday… I will be buying puts or selling calls (probably selling) – Looking for the big board to retest the March lows.

    Comments welcome.

  64. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:21 am

    Craig- Remember our little discussion on CC’s? Well, how’s this for a sharp stick in the eye…

    My business card is through Advanta. 50K line, paid in full every month, they have NEVER reported my excellent history to the Credit Bureaus (thank you very much) is going belly up. And get this, I’ve got 4 days before they pull the plug.
    What do you think the odds are of getting a replacement line for that amount today?

  65. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:48 am

    What a midnight treat for me to read :)
    *Make sure to google the headline and click on 1st link for entire article.

    http://tinyurl.com/oknf2w

    WASHINGTON — A government program designed to rid banks of bad loans, part of a broader effort once viewed as central to tackling the financial crisis, is stalling and may soon be put on hold, according to people familiar with the matter.

    The Legacy Loans Program, being crafted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., is part of the $1 trillion Public Private Investment Program the Obama administration announced in March as a way to encourage banks to sell securities and loans weighing on their balance sheets to willing investors.

    But prospective buyers and sellers have expressed reluctance to the FDIC …

  66. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:49 am

    All resume applications welcome :)

    http://tinyurl.com/q65s5e

  67. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 4:17 am
    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 8:30 am

      Well, certainly if North Korea drops the armistice, that’s not a good sign.

      But seriously, we aren’t going to hit them with anything. A conventional attack could be misinterpreted as a nuclear attack by a confused chain of command and bring about a nuclear response. How can you tell if those cruise missiles executing a “conventional attack” are carrying conventional warheads or nuclear ones? And a nuclear attack on North Korea, well, that’s just not going to happen. Nor should it.

      We will rely on our standard policy of assured destruction if North Korea does anything nuclear. It would be a terrible tragedy, but one in which North Korea would suffer vastly disproportionately to us. They know this, we know this, etc. Common sense will prevail. We’ve been out of the cold war business for so long, the press just gets breathless when this sort of thing occurs.

      As for ground forces in place: the “8th army” in Korea consists of exactly one infantry division – the 2nd ID. The division’s three battalions of armor along with the choppers and air defense are in place in Korea (maybe 200 tanks?), with the rest of the division (Stryker infantry brigades) at Fort Lewis, Washington. It’s not a very big force in position. I’d guess in a shooting war, the BCT would hold in place while the rest of the division was flown in from the US. It doesn’t sound like a force to go on the offensive with.

      I’m also going to suggest that the US taking an offensive action starting a major shooting war in asia, with the bulk of our forces deployed into Afghanistan and Iraq, is also not going to happen. We just don’t have the troops for it.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2nd_Infantry_Division_(United_States)

      I’m guessing N Korea feels they have leverage with us distracted by our market, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 8:51 am

        Funny, I look at Korea’s action in an economic sense now, less the military strategy. Bill has forced me to see things differently.

        Korea’s actions are certainly one way to deflate attempted market based recoveries at the moment.

        Looking at Yahoo finance’s main page, and those bozos at Fox questioning “how to handle Korea’s nukes?” (what, 1, 2, maybe 5 warheads?) and I’m left wondering, who is playing who is playing who?

        Keeping global economies in turmoil will certainly help little Kym’s drug smuggling, money laundering, counterfeiting and other efforts.

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 9:58 am

          I think Fox is just trying to sell airtime, and to bash Obama where they think he’s weak – national defense, that traditional “conservative” strong point. Ratings always increase during an “emergency.”

          After thinking about it, I think China likes having North Korea around. That way, Japan, and the US divides focus and is distracted from China itself. I’m guessing the nukes make them uncomfortable, however they’ll continue to feed this dog, as long as he keeps barking at Japan, South Korea, and the US.

          Also, a divided Korea is much better for China than a unified Korea. Imagine a Korean unification, like when Germany reunited? Initially quite costly for South Korea, but in the long term, it would be quite powerful. So China feeds the dog just enough to keep him alive and barking, but not enough for him to get strong and powerful.

          And for North Korea, if they stop barking, why on earth would China keep supporting them? They too have to remain relevant. And with all the fuss going on economically these days, they have to bark really REALLY loudly to be heard. So its nukes and an armistice issue.

          And of course the US wouldn’t mind a national security distraction right around now. That way PPIP and the GM bailout and the rest of the bailouts could be a “national security” priority. Elizabeth Warren would die of old age before she got another document from Treasury in that case.

          Boy, everybody wins!

          Well not us, and certainly not the people of North Korea, but – you know what I mean.

      • goldbug58(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 11:12 am

        There’s no mutual assured destruction policy with n. Korea, these guys can barely splash a missile past Japan, much less hit it. All this missile/nuke rhetoric is Kim’s way of getting attention, lest everyone in the world ignore his crappy regime (as it should). If there is a threat from n. Korea, its a ground attack/chemical weapons attack against Seoul, not nuclear technology from the early 1950s.

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 12:49 pm

        Dave,

        I hope we don’t, but I remember when Truman announced the “Police Action” in Korea in 1950. We didn’t have the troops then either. Most we in Japan Occupation Forces which were late WWII draftees and a few Regulars, had practically no combat experience and were short on weapons and ammo.

        Rumsfeld had us invade Iraq with one-quarter the number of troops CENTCOM’s ten years of “with-if” planning called for.

        (A side comment: Today it is nearly impossible to buy ammo commercially. Where is it going? Remington says they are still producing and working extra shifts.)

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 12:55 pm

          Grym – I remember when Truman announced the “Police Action” in Korea in 1950.

          Ok buddy, yeah you in that Surplus Russian T-34. Pull it over, and I mean now!

          My forces analysis of the 8th Army was simply in response to a post that suggested we might have the combat power on the ground there to bring the trouble to the enemy, Iraq-style, today. We don’t. And it would take a decent amount of time to transport all the heavy equipment necessary to form a Big American Army in Korea.

          Maybe we have pre-positioned equipment for a division or two apart from the 2 ID. Anyone know?

          Interesting about the ammo. After all guns don’t kill people – ammo does, right? :)

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 1:15 pm

            Marine forces Okinawa.

            Recall US agreeing to withdraw some or all forces to Guam.

            http://www.usfj.mil/Links/pacific_bases.html

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 1:35 pm

            “Ok buddy, yeah you in that Surplus Russian T-34. Pull it over, and I mean now!”

            LOL! Thanks, I needed that.”

            I think the most likely action will be a really nasty letter, but things seem so crazy…

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 12:32 pm
  68. GREgrad(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 4:25 am

    Someone should write a song for their children to sing: Gloriously: NY
    bankers pass their debt onto the common and slink away from defense of
    capitalism, during crisis periods, when capitalism might need a
    defender. NY banks then want to privatize their profits. Privatize their gains during the

    Cool site Interesting Finance & Economic Articles

    good years. Have one bad year in the cycling of
    capitalism and there is Paulson as their front man, to unload their
    debt onto others.

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 4:45 am

      What’s with all the span recently?? I’ve been here a year and remember maybe 5 total.

      • photogray(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 5:37 am

        As Vinod said earlier, the price of success. I have for the first time elected to ignore user. How aptly named is that?…user
        peace from North Puget Sound

        • Quasi(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 12:53 pm

          Photogray, I don’t think the ignore button will be of much help here as he is creating a new user alias every few days. I also see he is now using a redirect site to hide the URL of that particular site he is trying to send us all to.

  69. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 4:42 am

    I was googling for deflation/inflation & found this website. Found their short comments & outlook very interesting

    http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/2009invest

    http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/ccmshortta

  70. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 6:34 am

    FRANKFURT — Germany became the latest euro-zone country to post an annual decline in its inflation rate Wednesday, foreshadowing an expected record low for the euro-zone measure later this week.

    German consumer prices fell 0.1% in May from the year before, according to a preliminary government estimate. In April, the annual inflation rate rose by 0.8%. The fall in the measure, which is used to compare price trends across the 27-nation European Union, was sharper than many economists expected…

    Economists, however, increasingly have warned that the bloc’s deep recession means the threat of deflation — a prolonged period of falling prices — is rising.

    Great! I’ll have my Mercedes yet. My neuroscientist neighbour wants a Porsche. We’re willing to suspend our green ideology for a few years for the sake of a good ride 😉 It’s a buyer’s market – cash is king!

  71. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 6:47 am

    profit taking, or to quote our “beloved leader” (no, not Kym – Obama!), is it change that we can believe in?

  72. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 7:15 am

    Interesting book written by economist who has interest in pirates.

    you can tie in the democratic and functioning economic system created by pirates without aid (or more rightly put – interference) of government with the URL I posted the other day about Adam Smith’s moral philosophy and the free market. The author of this book on pirates elaborates on how Smith’s self-interest works to the advantage of pirates as a community – and he does go into some detail in the interview on the mechanics of a pirate ship’s political functioning. Worth a listen

    http://www.abc.net.au/rn/latenightlive/stories/200

    I’m coming round to Kaimu’s understanding of big, centralised government as a hindrance to the orderly economic (and for that matter, social) functioning of society.

    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 9:25 am

      ALOHA !!

      Les … So, if you are coming around to that aspect of government then you will surely be onboard with my philosophy of FIAT … Without a fiat monetary system this kind of government and US FED intervention and control could never have been sustained.

      There are 52 weeks in a year and the average work hours of 40 per week, so that totals to annual work hours of 2080. The average American spends 54% of his income on taxation of some sort(income, payroll, excise, sales, property, etc)so that is a total of 1,123 hours we spend working for various government. Thats 28 weeks in governmental servitude!

      Then on the other side of that equation you have Obama and the US CONgress spending near $33BIL per day($7.8tril/239days). So far for FY 2009(eight months)this spending has indebted every man, woman and child in the USA with nearly $25,490USD. This also is a tax, a hidden tax, on our future quality of life.

      This brings one to the only possible conclusion, which is what Ludwig Von Mises said decades ago … “Government is essentially the negation of liberty.” Of course it is … How much “liberty” can you have when you spend 28 weeks in servitude while the US government piles $25,490USD of DEBT on top of you at the same time?

      What must it cost to intervene in domestic and international markets 25/8?

      This is not liberty and little time is left after government servitude to pursue any happiness!

      ELIMINATE THE US FED …
      ELIMINATE US INCOME TAXES …

    • OT(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 12:44 pm

      Les, although somewhat off subject, your post reminded me of how Julius Caesar handled pirates. http://tinyurl.com/p3thfr

      BTW, did you get the “Parliament of Whores” book? I have had it a long time and your mention of it caused me to start reading it again. Some of the comments are too funny.

  73. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 7:34 am

    I still say it looks like accumulation. If you ignore the odd intraday V-shaped patterns, you see small price movement and large volumes. The volume stick 3 days ago was only slightly higher (35M instead of 30M) but the price range was about $1. Today, price range was $0.40, and instead of being a long black candle it’s one of those spinning tops – almost a doji.

    And don’t forget, the RSI is at 31.60.

    I’m thinking UNG itself may be a safer buy than the gas E&P companies. They’re bid up pretty high. I was trading CHK back when it was 14-20. I’m definitely more comfortable buying when I see that low RSI. I worry here that any market tumble can send those guys off a cliff. I’m waiting for a pullback before I get back into energy.

    If I look at the CHK chart in May, I see one of those declining triangles – lower highs, with the lows at 20. It seems to be loosely following the S&P right now. Almost a tombstone doji on the 19th at a failed test of the high of 24, with declining volume since it made its high on March 11th. I have to say, I don’t get that warm fuzzy feeling here for CHK.

  74. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 10:24 am

    http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/05/where-to-draw-l

    New currency coming?
    Distribution (higher volume, lower price) under the radar.
    Relative strength (20 and 5 day)
    6 by 60 charts

    “They’re selling make believe and we don’t buy that here.” – John Rich

  75. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 10:26 am

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 11:43 am

      I fully believe, absolutely, that silver at 14 bucks will soon seem like a bargain.

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 12:20 pm

        May 26 (Bloomberg) — Hedge funds are making the biggest bet in nine months that commodity prices will rise as the global economy rebounds from its steepest slump since World War II.
        The Reuters/Jefferies CRB index of 19 raw materials rose 6.3 percent this year, after a 36 percent decline in 2008.

        Oil is being driven by hedge funds and maybe Goldman at the moment. Nothing to do with demand or the dollar.

  76. radix023(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 11:41 am

    Yesterday, after the 1pm 7yr auction there was a selloff of long-term treasuries. The 10 year went up 25bp. From the news I reviewed, it says in the 7 year auction $7B was USFed and there was a note that said $5b may have been foreign central bank buying (sorry I don’t have that more detailed or reliable). The Fed’s ability to shift long-term rate (and mortgages) with funny money may be hitting a wall. (a checkpoint on this will be the next 10 and 30 year auctions on 6/10 and 6/11 respectively)

    Checking into that I learned a new term “mortgage convexity” which has to do with mortgage debt holders hedging with long term treasuries. The gist that I got (and I could be wrong) was that the size of the mortgage debt market and the hedging needs (against default, refinances, early payment) makes it a significant factor in long-term Treasury pricing and that that was part of the move after 1pm. Still digesting that.

    ———————————
    Credit Cards/Advanta

    I read a good article that talked about how credit cards actually provide two types of credit: transactional and revolving. They make their money on the revolving credit (the idiots who carry balances and pay lots of fees). The likely impact of the credit card bill recently passed will be to make transactional credit more expensive. Personally, all my credit cards are a) no annual fee b) cash back. I expect cash back programs to be cut back severely if not terminated outright. Also raises and in some cases returns of annual fees. I expect to close some infrequently used cards when they send notice of an annual fee.

    ———————————-
    North Korea

    As was noted on the thread, North Korea is a Chinese cat’s paw. However, I think that may backfire big time. I don’t mean the apocalyptic scenarios. Japan has already set post-WWII precedent by sending JDF to the Iraqi theatre. Under active consideration now is legalizing weapons exports. The area I saw under consideration was robotics and drones. The huge swing under consideration is for Japan to go nuclear. That is the backfire I’m talking about for China. China wants to be the regional superpower, but NK missiles overflying Japan may extinguish the post-WWII pacifism and lead to Japan militarizing.

  77. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 12:21 pm

    Mark: I’ve received two 0 % offers in the last couple days from our debtors at BAC and C. BAC offers me two cards, one with cash back and the other lower rates.

    Nukes:
    N. Korea, Iran, and who ever else trying to get a nuke know one thing and learn; monkey see, monkey do, from US.

    What reason does everyone have to let us get away with all the bullying we do, the currency manipulation (while we accuse China, Japan and Europe) and all the other blackmail?

    They want what we have because nukes are more than defense, they are economic weapons of blackmail.

    We can no longer ask Saddam, but the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan got a snoot full of our sabre rattling after 9/11. After that everyone wants a nuke…er….ACE up their sleeve.

  78. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 12:41 pm

    Good morning.

    GGB – Downgraded to Hold @ Citigroup

    New Coverage:

    ADBE – Janney Montgomery Scott Initiates Coverage with a Neutral. Price Target = $19

    CVX – Collins Stewart Initiates Coverage with a Hold

    ERTS – ThinkEquity Initiates Coverage with an Accumulate

    PBR – Collins Stewart Initiates Coverage with a Hold

    SLB – HSBC Initiates Coverage with a Neutral. Price Target = $62

    XOM – Collins Stewart Initiates Coverage with a Hold

  79. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 12:47 pm

    So another treasury auction brings excitement again. Silver has gone through $15, gold is moving up from asia weakness, will today be the day everything falls apart? Gold spikes through 1000, and … nah, it’s not gonna happen.

    Unless Dr. Cosa has a second, confirming dream of gold 1107? :)

  80. Lori Smyth(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 12:48 pm

    UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-Goldman Sachs ups SanDisk to buy

  81. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 1:12 pm

    Here we go again….

    Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
    On Thursday May 28, 2009, 8:35 am EDT

    Buzz up! Print WASHINGTON (AP) — The government says demand for big-ticket manufactured goods soared by the largest amount in 16 months in April, the second increase in the past three months.

    Read More:
    http://tinyurl.com/p69mmx

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 1:30 pm
      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 2:05 pm

        grym,

        Yeah, they keep spiking that coolaid precisely at 30 min before the opening bell every day. (right about the time I am thinking to go short).

  82. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 1:21 pm

    Further confirmation of very tight global silver supplies…

    Its best cash cow these days appears to be the Austrian Mint who is truly experiencing golden times due to its booming sales of its bullion coins in both silver and gold. All this, while the monetary metal silver is slapped with a 20% value added tax in Austria that defies any logic other than to shy away investors from buying the poor man’s gold as an investment.

    http://tinyurl.com/on5dkv

  83. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 1:37 pm

    daytrading be damned. If gold spikes at 980 plus today, I’ll sell it and replace it with calls.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:44 pm

      used silver as my decision maker today, since Twigg’s was bullish on it. Thought it would drag gold along. I see consolidation.

  84. sjk(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:07 pm
    • Les(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 2:10 pm

      happy weed for everyone. And they don’t get arrested for it.

  85. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:08 pm

    JCP – Upgraded from Underperform to Buy at Merrill Lynch/Bank of America. Estimates appear conservative, and the company is executing ahead of plan. $35 price target.

    SNDK – Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to Buy from Neutral based on renegotiation of royalty agreement with Samsung. Expect positive revaluation of intellectual property, along with improving NAND fundamentals. Price target raised to $22 from $16.

  86. mikede(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:13 pm

    “Or replace stock with calls”
    Is there a discipline involved here? For instance the daily rsi is well above 70 yet the monthly is
    still well under 70..is this the scenario to book profits and buy calls? Or is it a just more of a current view of the market feeling?
    Great work I love hearing the thought process at play.
    Thanks

  87. skater(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    Americans fell behind on their mortgages and banks seized homes at a record pace in the fourth quarter as unemployment rose to a 15-year high and real estate values tumbled.

    Mortgage delinquencies increased to a seasonally adjusted 7.88 percent of all loans, the highest in records going back to 1972, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. Loans in foreclosure rose to 3.30 percent, also an all-time high.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si

  88. mikede(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:17 pm
  89. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    Two trades, risking only 2% of the portfolio, netted twice what I will make at the day job today, in less than 45 minutes.

    EEV- in 21.62, out 22.32
    FAZ- in 5.25, out 5.44

    Keeping it simple.

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 2:31 pm

      Nice, man. I took the Starship OCLS for 2 more rides today. Shifted all profits to UNG @ 13.56.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 2:42 pm

        Warp speed.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 6:35 pm

      Mark- Thinking about it. But it’s not Baskin- Robbins…so will likely await (a) the close, or (b) tomorrow for a better read.

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        May 29, 2009 at 1:49 am

        2nd- Guessing you stood pat. If forced to choose, I’d be more comfortable long than short right now. Other than UNG and a little adding to TBT a few days ago, just scalping right now. Re- UNG; look at the markets reaction to a little “crack” in the dam. I erred on my return in the previous post. Cost Basis now 14.20. (Remember, I still had 1/3 of the original trade @ 13.38). Also have about 1/3 house money in.

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          May 29, 2009 at 3:40 am

          “2nd- Guessing you stood pat. If forced to choose, I’d be more comfortable long than short right now.”

          Mark- Yeah, what if 8500 is the launching pad to 11000? No one knows. So why not remain agnostic? It could go to 6000 or 11000. It could go to 6000, then 11000. Or 11000, then 6000. Shanghai could go back to 6000 and pull the world economy up with it.

          Along the same lines, is NGas at 4 a launching pad to 7? Gold at 1000-> 1500, SLW at 10-> 18? We both have natural inclinations towards being long, as does the public in general. C in double digits/XLF 25…crude 70…NGas 7/UNG 35…on and on.

          Ah, well. Tomorrow’s another day. See you then.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 4:19 am

            “UNG 35”

            That’s exactly what I was thinking.

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 4:24 am

            2nd- This is an interesting time indeed. We’ve consolidated for weeks now, and I feel, like you I think, that the moment is at hand…Until tomorrow my friend.

            Dave-, Natgas inventories are at 5 year high’s, injection is at….Ah, forget it, I’ll take the profits!! We are traders, no? I’m guessing your comment re- TBT was for me. I’m holding tight for now. Next weeks auctions will tell the story.

            CP- How have you out played me re- FTWR?…Good work, man! No moonshine for you.

  90. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:33 pm

    vertical like a rocket!

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 2:38 pm

      http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs

      Must have come close to expectations.

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 2:53 pm

      Total UNG trade now +2%.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 2:59 pm

        Mark- Congratulations- Payoff is always sweet.

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:03 pm

      just a little runup into a number that was disappointing…nothing to get xcited @

      EDIT FEATURE: (Don’t listen to this man…he’s got his head up his …
      Wrong more often than right, this “stopped clock” is good for nothing more than winning money from in golf:)

  91. javc2000(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:34 pm

    On the ticker 5 min. ago: Source claims US Tsy to extend 50Bn and to back Sale of GM Toxic assets…how do you read this “leak”…will it help GM evade BK, stock is at 1.34 now

  92. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    has been going up in May but not much of action in DRYS etc

  93. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    been getting long yamana

    • johnuk(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:01 pm

      How longs long, shark couple hours,days ,weeks,months.Am rueing selling all my PMs now.

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 3:19 pm

        Since calling Vad on the phone and asking him stuff about a year ago, I never hold positions overnight anymore.

        Knowing that, I bought this morning when the price movement became clear to me (on a daytrading basis) in the 10.90’s.

        Of course, I’ve known that this baby would be good for months now. Where was I the day it went to 3.30-something? Sleeping probably.

        Also a fund manager/friend was loading his boat at 7 based on my pestering….Does this earn me a xmas present this year? I’m hoping so…

        • johnuk(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 5:28 pm
          • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 8:26 pm

            Yeah it would have been a good idea buying and holding much lower in hindsight but I sleep a WHOLE LOT better being flat each night.

  94. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:50 pm

    The gold $960 level has been heavily defended in NY during the past several sessions. Only minutes ago this resistance zone has been pierced. We shall see how this plays out today and where the defenders make their next stand.

  95. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:50 pm

    And gold up +10!

    • tgifbipo(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:06 pm

      Yes Dave it is and i am wondering just how high it will spike, have played this last move with HGU, one of those double funds on the tsx, first time i tried them out and am seriously considering selling here soon, dont want to get greedy and any profit is a good profit. Tomorrow is the last day of the month, funds would like to stay somewhat in the black and i believe that come Monday we could see the reversal that Bill has been talking about.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 3:25 pm

        I just let go my gold at 964. Happy to make 13 points in 4 hours. As long as you can deal with the scalper’s regret if it goes moonshot today, just think about the risk you’re avoiding by letting it go now!

        These days, I’m feeling more comfortable watching price movement, dipping into gold as I see it doing something I recognize, and then bailing out once it reaches resistance. Gold, as Bill points out, is awfully extended, and for me right now, holding paper gold for long is a scary thing. Every day I expect to see it tank by $20 or $30 in one of those “Fed Specials” we had almost daily about a month back.

        • tgifbipo(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 3:31 pm

          Well said Dave. I dont have a problem with the should have would haves though, its just an oppurtunity cost, this is probably the first thing that i learned about trading, there is always another trade just around the corner.

      • French_Canuck(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 4:52 pm

        Have done same with HGU.to, all out at this point. HGU can provide good returns when you are fairly confident of gold / gold miners’ short term trend, but can fall sharply to the downside when trend reverses.

        Notice how today’s high on HGU so far has come to within 1 cent shy of the previous high of $13.86 set about 10 days ago, before falling back. Am heeding Bill’s advice of possible short-term hit to PMs as oversold $USD is defended. If it plays out, I would not expect HGU.to to fall too far, possibly finding support @ $13 based on P&F: http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?hgu.to.

        If / when HUG bounces off $13, I will seek to re-enter on MACD upwards cross. Right now, MACD looking toppish.

        ** All prices in $CDN

        • tgifbipo(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 5:13 pm

          Frenchy, I prefer to use the technicals of the individual companies that comprise the HGU, they can be found at Horizons on the net, rather than those of the fund itself cause i find that due to decay it is difficult to get a good read, they all seem to move pretty much in tandem.

  96. Otis(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:51 pm

    Bill mentioned a trailing stop loss to let some of these babies run. Every time I use one I either apply it at the wrong time or set it too tight and get stopped out quick.

    Anyone have some pointers or tips?

    TIA

  97. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    Oh how I miss your company…

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:00 pm

      yep, now we have to wait for a pullback.

  98. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    I will NEVER work another day in my life in any other business than this one.

    And what a great feeling that is:)

    EDIT: Of course, I was totally wrong on the UNG thing but then again I didn’t lay any sheckles on the line either. Sorry though for those who may have missed out.

  99. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:58 pm

    Puts me pretty close to break even on the NGas trade I started last Thursday. Next time. Back to 100% cash.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:02 pm

      you just missed it 2nd!

      edit: ah nooooo I was so close

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:02 pm

      Alright, permission granted to run it to the moon.
      In at 13.60 out at 14.47.

      See? 14.88…..maybe a pullback to retrace half the move?

  100. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    Back into the longer end of treasuries today, the FED must’ve twisted some more central bankers arms.

  101. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    Wow…

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:05 pm

      That’s a forty cent upper shadow on that candle. And the show isn’t over yet.
      I’m thinking there were some people short who got their stops hit just a little bit.
      Or something. Sheesh. Let’s hear another chorus of “demand is low,
      and the storage units are filling up” please from HB&B. :)

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 3:10 pm

        watching huge volume spikes before in options activity – mostly written options. On 13 put and 15 call.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 3:27 pm

        so where is it going dave?

        another spike, or will it find support? I’m holding $15 covered calls on UNG. Wondering if I can be deft enough to sell above my present holding price – 14.76 and keep the covered calls as an early christmas present since opex is another 4 weeks away

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 4:00 pm

          Les – I’m holding $15 covered calls on UNG

          The candles I see are a “bullish morning star” (more or less) which is a high reliability reversal pattern.

          http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs59.asp

          If the price action today holds, if this isn’t a day trade, just hang on for the ride. Trend reversals are the thing we wait for. I was momentarily tempted to sell that blow off top, but then I remembered just in time I wasn’t doing this for a day trade. :)

          If you have UNG long, and you’re short the calls against it, just let everything stay where it is and pretend you don’t have the calls or UNG anymore. Once UNG goes above 15, its as if you’ve sold that UNG off, although you still are taking risk if it drops below 15. If you hold them to expiration, you’ll get the full value from your written options premium.

          Or did you buy UNG calls? If you are long UNG calls, well then you’re a happy man! If you’re in this for longer than a day, hang on for the ride. The candlesticks say, trend change, with a volume confirmation, and last time UNG was in its trend it lasted for – a couple of weeks? And now we’ve done a double bottom here. Might go for a while. Figuring out when to sell is always a challenge. Watch volume and price action for your clues.

          And if the market tanks UNG might follow it. That’s my only concern on this trade. “Subject to the performance of the economy.”

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 4:01 pm

            Thanks Dave but made the call. I want UNG but have an email from fellow trader here outlining options plan based on bearish outlook these next few months. I’m hoping for reentry into UNG with house money and much cheaper than what it is now.

            Prefer to be cash for short term trades. As you suggested, market’s gotta take the body blow sooner or later. I’ll wait for UNG to come to me.

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 4:14 pm

            Hey I totally understand I was close to selling my UNG long also. Longer term means more risk, and plenty is the money I’ve lost while “holding on for the longer run.”

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 5:10 pm

            RE:>Hey I totally understand I was close to selling my UNG long also. Longer term means more risk

            I see the long term promise of UNG but with a small account I need to be wiser than buying so much of any one equity.

            I wanted to play a short-term bounce as initial reason to trade. I see that I bought way too early. Took the opportunity to get out and keep powder dry. Still waiting for a decent reversal in S&P.

  102. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:07 pm

    The funny thing is the driller/trusts weighted to NG like PGH/PDS getting goosed by the NG #’s and the $USD reversal

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:08 pm

      Pressing the bet @ 14.46

  103. papadynamite(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    WOW!!!! Has sanity gone out the window? Why is the SPX still rallying when we are long overdue for at least a near term correction as low as 835.
    And look at gold and silver. Gold is near its resistance of 967, currently at 964 and silver has broken out over 15 with an expected near term top of 16. Consolidation can be expected because I think it is unlikely for a moonshot over the symbolic 1000 gold.
    In the mean time I am making tons of money with AUY and SLW, primarily trading multiple times (I am a day trader for sure!!). now that AUY is $11.13 and SLW 9.90, I will not be a hero but simply raise my stop losses to guarantee gains. Retracements intraday (recycles) always happen! Good luck!

    • joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 4:37 pm

      Well, there’s always the expression that the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent 😉 Something that I learnt very painfully and am recovering from that in this trader’s market, where return to fundamentals is taking too long for me to profit from. Glad to note that you are managing risk and losses in a more mature way!

  104. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    Put on XHB or homebuilders is XXJ SK and is up approx. 55% at 1123 or 11:23 AM

  105. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:31 pm

    Vegas? This is better than Vegas.

    Waiting for David to wake up and smell the bacon.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 7:47 pm

      “Waiting for David to wake up and smell the bacon.”

      :)

      My joy over this rally has been muted, as I have almost completely hedged myself with the FCX short and with SKF a couple of weeks ago. My portfolio grew maybe only a few percent over the past couple of weeks (despite my long positions making large advances).

      I am going to Moscow tomorrow with my family to see our parents, and will then present a paper at a conference in Dublin, coming back on June 22. Until then, I probably won’t have the time to read carefully through this blog and post many comments. I hope the market pleases our community in the next few weeks! :)

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 8:09 pm

        “I am going to Moscow tomorrow with my family to see our parents, and will then present a paper at a conference in Dublin, coming back on June 22.”

        David- Both of which are highly important parts of (your) life, much more so than trading. Enjoy your trip!

  106. papadynamite(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:40 pm

    Stops hit at $11.19 for AUY and $9.96 for SLW. They can run higher but I’ll wait for re-entry. Good luck to everyone still holding.

    • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:46 pm

      Me too…took profits on 5-26-09 at AUY $10.64 & SLW $9.3217

      I did keep small core positions in SLW,AUY,AEM,GG,KGC

    • Zed II(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 3:49 pm

      Hope so… maybe I can still get a shot at AUY, expected a pull back early May, alas it left without me.
      FAS ran away from me this morning when I took my eye off it for a minute and now a tropical storm (Ana ) is expected to form off the N.C. coast tonight as a further distraction.

  107. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    Sorry, I have been busy on other stuff. But I am happy to see the precious metals run-up. Long-term I am very bullish, but at this point I must be careful to protect the gains.

    • terryC(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 7:52 pm

      Bill,

      Thanks again for your perspective on POG and miner prices in current markets. I’m no T/A or chartist but Kitco is telling me that 30 and 1 year POG is up 7.35% and 6.57% respectively. Meanwhile the 30 day and 1 year percentage increases are +26% and +5% for Goldcorp. Simple logic suggests that the 30 day run-up in GG may have more to do with the 30 day run up in the $CDN than anything else. Being what you have described as a swing trader my gg ( G, actually ) was just sold. Now if Palladium would just get some of the respect it is due…..

  108. alberio(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:47 pm

    Us nat gas injection was 106 Bcf versus expectation of 111Bcf.
    Total gas in storage is now 2213Bcf vs. 5yr average of 1820Bcf.

  109. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:50 pm

    Will likely close up, but not above open IMO.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 4:15 pm

      Hi CP,

      Just a word on yield. I was set to go with FXA due to the yield as shown at Yahoo of 5.48, but found it is really only 1.87.

      Wonder where they get their number?

      I saw it on the internet, so it must be…

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 4:48 pm

        Good day Grym – I’ve been watching FXA out of the corner of my eye, havn’t done much/any DD as of yet, just the prelim. Yhoo glance… You didn’t say where your data came from but I’d definitely examine the horse’s mouth first, might have a broken jaw or need float work. http://www.currencyshares.com

        Looking at the yahoo payout event, it seems you’re correct. Assuming the info is correct, the annual distribution is a tad under 1.9% while the reported payout is 5.48%. I wonder how many see the number and believe. Hopefully they do DD first, HA!

        2.38% as of today according to the currencyshares web site…

        • Illini(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 5:25 pm

          If you read the footnote for the yield of FXA on the Yahoo page, you will see that the 5.48% is based on the closing price for March 31. Way misleading.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 9:01 pm

            Illini, CP,

            FXA: Yes, I noticed that after going to both Big Charts (1.87)and Currency.com (2.38)

            The footnote is way too small for these old eyes. I will be careful using yahoo from now on. Better still – search for footnotes at each.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 9:23 pm

            Grym, You know what Albert Einstein said, and it’s quite true. I’ll just add that research is the DD we all must perform as part of the decision making process.

            Let us know what you decide, might tag along for the ride.

      • Seamus(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 8:03 pm

        Gyrm–“I was set to go with FXA due to the yield . . . “

        I didn’t buy it for the yield when I picked it up back aways. Considered the monthly cash distribution a bonus.

        If you’re looking for something with yield in other than $USD, you might want to try FAX which is a closed end fund. Haven’t checked the NAV but a quick glance shows presently near 70 daily rsi7. It is an Asian-Pacific income fund mostly from Australia, New Zealand. Decent monthly yield.

        No present position. DOYDD

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 9:06 pm

          Thanks, Seamus, I’ll check it out.

    • joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 4:47 pm
      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 5:02 pm

        JTP – I’m not going to argue with your assessment, it seems to contain a reasonably high degree of validity. I’m not convinced today’s closing will punch through to 9k+, however. I did my preliminary selling last week just to raise cash in case mean ol’ slinky step decline returns. I’m still heavy on the long side, just a tad thinner.

        BTW – My preference is observance of the S&P, don’t trust that dow 30 basket to the manipulators quite as much.

        Good work IMO!

  110. London(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:51 pm

    Near breakout levels today.

  111. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    UNG $15 calls are now naked, but would rather deal with them than be lumped with UNG for next six months. UNG will have to hit $15.80 before I get laid up with underlying.

    I’ll take my chances.

  112. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 4:09 pm

    BACpE.N up 45% today while the common is doing…..?

  113. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 4:37 pm

    here you go, its already above 100%

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/107274-finally-see

  114. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 5:06 pm

    Was busy during excitement but sold my lower cost buys at $C $6.50, $6.65, and $6.75, all at a profit. Still holding units bought higher.

  115. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 5:29 pm

    Boy that was a high volume, high speed move in SPY. Did someone around here push “buy”?

    Let me look at the headlines to see if I can find out why:
    * General Motors Said to File for Bankruptcy Protection June 1 After Losses
    * Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures Rise to Records in U.S. Amid Job Cuts
    * U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Hovered Near Lowest Level in 13 Years in April
    * Visteon, Metaldyne File for Bankruptcy as Automakers Cut Orders for Parts

    No, those are all bad news. Wait let me look at a different news service.

    1:03:29 PM * US sells 26 bln in 7-year notes at high yield of 3.30 percent.

    Hooray! A normal auction!! It’s time for a rally! Almost as exciting
    as a consumer survey indicating people might buy something in 6 months!

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 6:09 pm

      “1:03:29 PM * US sells 26 bln in 7-year notes at high yield of 3.30 percent.”

      I’m pretty sure the primary focus is on the monetary crisis(trade imbalance normalization) at hand, the housing.auto.mfg.bomb stuff are second, third, fourth…n order harmonics.

      http://www.entrepreneur.com/tradejournals/article/

  116. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 5:31 pm

    Upon examination of the various charts and comparing the product charts against the producer charts, it appears to me that producer valuations are more predictable than the product. I’ve noticed the same is true for GLD vs. GDX as well. Just my observations, anyone is welcome to blow holes in this theory. 😉

  117. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 5:40 pm

    Speaking of FXA once more, I’ve also had my eye on DBV. For the record.

  118. JamesT(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 5:43 pm

    A nice day for trading. Took a quick profit on the HNU.TO train, then just sold the YRI I’ve been accumulating for a while. A respectable 3% and 12%.
    Looking for a long term position on YRI when it retreats.

  119. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 6:03 pm

    Using UUP as a dollar proxy, it appears we are actually in the 4th day of a very gradually sloping uptrend for the $USD. It looks to be retracing a huge dollar plunge and subsequent chart gap that occured last Thursday. I am keeping my eyes peeled as to how the $USD acts as this gap is closed. If we see it close the gap and run higher, I think it could act as the pin-prick that pops this rally and sends us below that S&P 875 inflection point.

    Consequently, should the $USD retrace the gap and then reverse and begin to weaken, the rally should continue and perhaps retest the recent S&P 920-30ish area (I find this scenario less likely but am not ruling anything out in these markets!). Feels to me like we are just in the exhaustion stages of the short squeeze where those who were early to short the market are getting chewed up and spit out on fast hard up moves that quickly teeter out.

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 6:20 pm

      Interesting chart. UUP had another one of these bottom-looking events May 11th. That didn’t go so well. However weekly RSI shows 30.66 along with daily RSI at 32.4 and rising. It sure could be as you say. I think I’ll watch this one too. :)

      UUP: comprised entirely of USDX futures contracts, which are designed to replicate the performance of being long the US Dollar against the following currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

    • French_Canuck(118083 comments)-
      May 29, 2009 at 2:03 am

      BillySundance,

      Find your analysis quite valid, especially the ‘pin-prick that pops this rally’. Sure enough $USD closed slightly higher today for the 3rd day in a row, as MACD makes a slow turn upwards towards a bullish crossing. It is clearly being defended at the 80 cent level.

      Confirming analysis is here, from http://www.dailyfx.com/:
      http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar__Japan

      A revision to the GDP numbers tomorrow could spark a rush out of equities back to safe-haven $USD. It is frightening that they can play with these numbers to sway the markets on cue.

      Excerpt below:

      ‘Looking ahead to Friday, the second round of US Q1 GDP estimates are due to hit the wires, and the results could be market-moving. The preliminary reading is forecasted to be revised up to -5.5 percent from -6.1 percent, which also marks an improvement when compared to the Q4 2008 result of -6.3 percent. There is some evidence that revisions will be to the downside, though. First, the US trade deficit widened for the first time in eight months during March by 5.5 percent to $27.6 billion. A breakdown of the report showed that exports slumped 2.4 percent to a more than two-year low of $123.62 billion while imports fell 1.0 percent to $151.196 billion. According to Bloomberg News, the Commerce Department used a much larger increase in exports when calculating Q1 GDP, suggesting that initial estimates of a 6.1 percent annual contraction may have been optimistic. Also, personal consumption is forecasted to be adjusted to 2.0 percent from 2.2 percent after March advance retail sales were revised down to -1.3 percent from -1.1 percent.

      Overall, risk appetite has been on edge, and when looking to daily charts of the major US equity indices, it looks like there is some bearish potential as both the DJIA and SPX have established a set of lower highs, while clear support looms below at 8,250 and 880, respectively. Indeed, a break below those noted support levels would signal further losses, and may also suggest that safe-havens like the US dollar and Japanese yen are in for gains.’

  120. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 6:39 pm

    ALOHA!!

    I do not post any trades much, simply because I am not doing any trades so why post? Since JAN 2009 I have bought nothing but PPs. I have not even bought gold or silver(last big buy was at $904USD in 2008). From Oct 2008 to now I have only done twelve(12) open market trades and all were on the ASX. Keepin’ it simple … not one of those dodgy sexy beasty types! Oh, behave-e-e …

    Latest update on CTAB Conference 2009 ASX stock pixs I presented on regarding the topic “ASX INVESTING”. These two companies are my core ASX holdings.

    Since first mentioned at Cara blog …
    SRL = 230%+
    SLR = 390%+

    Since CTAB Conference 2009(March 2009) …
    SRL = 140%+
    SLR = 190%+

    Here are the mechanics of my trades …

    SRL = 60,000 shares @ $0.70AUD (closed on 5/27 $1.71AUD)
    SLR = 200,000 shares @ $0.17AUD (closed on 5/27 $0.60AUD)

    This was a total of 6trades(5 ASX and 1 FX) …

    The SRL payout for the PTT 60% JV on SBI was set at $0.50AUD per share in SRL news release. I calculated it at $0.40AUD per share. I have yet to see a dividend, but I hope I am wrong and it is paid at the $0.50AUD!

    All totalled a paper gain of close to $195,000AUD(stock,FX and PTT)or $152,000USD, in seven months on 6 trades. This happened when gold was flatlining, base metals were skewered, the DOW and NASDAQ tanked, the USDX was in rally mode and all the fiat chasers were running for cover into US DEBT!

    I worked the monetary arbitraqge trend of USD>AUD>ASX. I waited and bought these companies close to their all time lows. I bought what I considered solid companies based on management and projects, two producers, both exposed to gold. SLR is a 100% gold producer. SRL is a coal, gold and copper producer.

    We flew Qantas(plus Indian Pacific) to Perth, Western Australia in Jan/Feb 2008 where I met with the company execs. I began my research then as I was getting tired of the TSX mentality and wanted to take advantage of any USDX rally. I think I was the only American flying out of Honolulu, Hawaii on that day in Jan 2008 with the idea to meet Perth, WA mining execs and buy the ASX so I can get out of the USD. I only met one American on the Indian Pacific train from Sydney to Perth and he was a Army infantry Srgt. based in Iraq. No, we did not talk ASX! Once I got to Perth I met no Americans at all for the rest of the trip.

    I have not sold any of my shares in SRL or SLR yet … Knowing the management, I expect their company fundamentals to improve from here, so that is why I am not selling.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 6:55 pm

      kaimu – Those are some very nice trade results, I do enjoy such posts. Congratulations!

  121. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 6:45 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 7:00 pm

      True, This was a result of extreme weakness in the long end of the treasury market.

    • jack black(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 7:43 pm

      I believe this is a significant event and more repercussions will follow. One can see the significance of that on the $TNX chart, as the RSI(21) crossed 70%. Last time it happened was 2 years ago in summer 2007. Incidentally, both TED and LIBOR started rising with their RSI(21) bouncing back from 10!
      I don’t see how Fed is going to fight that rise in rates short of temporary tightening and producing a mini deflation.

    • loannetter(118083 comments)-
      May 29, 2009 at 10:18 am

      Yes, Ms Mortgage confirms a heckofaday yesterday just fielding calls from anxious clients. Problem being nobody will allow forward locks without a complete package and the new HVCC appraisal timing is not predictable so your lock if you can get one is likely to be denied for lack of the golden fleece (appraisal) or it falls out due to underwriting backlogs or unfathomable ‘reviews’. Jumbos are well under 8% with portfolio specialists. Assuming your lender likes the total package with no hits for ‘declining market’ it pays to wait for your moment once you have cleared the flaming hoops. Feels like watching the circus flyers from the ground…one wrong move and splat! My advice is proceed while floating and let the rate come to you…see what I’ve learned here? Calm under pressure!

  122. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 7:16 pm

    Looking at this strictly from TA of candlesticks & volume, I see the first two of a three-candle pattern called a “bullish unique three river bottom” from price action in TLT.

    http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs57.asp

    Massive volume would serve to confirm the bottom, much as it did in UNG earlier this week.

    Perhaps this would be an entry point for aggressive traders today?

    Or at the very least, think about letting go of your TBT. :)

    FD: no position

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 7:54 pm

      Not from my perspective, TOG is still in play. I could be wrong, but I’m staying away from falling knives until a trend develops.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 8:03 pm

        I hear you CP. I thought the TA was saying something, but I couldn’t bring myself to execute. Maybe wait for the reversal to make itself felt – that third candle tomorrow. Maybe even a fourth. :)

      • terryC(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 8:13 pm

        CP,

        I guess that is why there is a market. From my perspective TOG is a wonderful, exciting concept. On the other hand, TOM ( Trade of the Month ) is reality for me. I only hope to do more winners where it is possible to have a return of a little under 20% in about a month on a quality company I can afford to hold onto for the longer term if the trade goes against me. I still have “dead money” stocks that are in the “non-performing” category but the overall net return on my portfolio is still far in excess of indexes, most managed-money taking measured risk, etc. I’m still using trading profits to pay down mortgage debt and am on track with my personal goal time horizon. To the hard core traders out there it may not make a lot of sense to use capital returning over 15% to pay down debt costing over 5% but there you have it – the overriding need to be debt-free and answerable to nobody but the guy in the mirror. It works for me.

        • OT(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 8:51 pm

          “To the hard core traders out there it may not make a lot of sense to use capital returning over 15% to pay down debt costing over 5% but there you have it – the overriding need to be debt-free and answerable to nobody but the guy in the mirror.”

          I am one of the “little people”, rather than a hard core trader, but it sure makes sense to me. The peace of mind with being debt free is worth more that a somewhat higher rate of return.

          I traded for the TOG, because I don’t have the talent to trade as often as some. At one time, I had lost 2/3 of the amount in my trading account at January 2008. While not happy over that, I lost no sleep, because I had no debts. Today, for the first time in more than a year, I am back to my Jan 2008 amount and slightly above. I was able to hang in there, because I really believed the PMs would return and I was not under intense pressure to recover the amount.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 9:14 pm

            It’s all in a day’s work, I have no debt and plan to keep it that way. If you can trade the market on a daily basis and make money doing it, then your timing is probably better than mine. I don’t think I could make that work to my advantage, my time horizon is on the order of a week, minimum and months on the average. We’ll see how it works out, I caught all of the upside this year because against my better judgment I caught too much of the downside scaling in last year.

            I’m improving my skills, but there’s one heck of a lot of competition from traders much better and more experienced. I make no mistake about it, no delusions of grandeur.

          • OT(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 9:36 pm

            CP – “my time horizon is on the order of a week, minimum and months on the average.” — “I’m improving my skills, but there’s one heck of a lot of competition from traders much better and more experienced. I make no mistake about it, no delusions of grandeur.”

            That pretty sums up my feeling. I would like to make money, preferably even lots of money, but if I don’t, it won’t keep the fish from biting. lol

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            May 28, 2009 at 11:40 pm

            “At one time, I had lost 2/3 of the amount in my trading account at January 2008. While not happy over that, I lost no sleep, because I had no debts. Today, for the first time in more than a year, I am back to my Jan 2008 amount and slightly above. I was able to hang in there, because I really believed the PMs would return and I was not under intense pressure to recover the amount.”

            OT- Now that’s inspiring! I’m going to down a cold one in honor of your perseverance- congratulations.

          • vinod(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 12:07 am
          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 12:36 am

            Vinod- True. I just finished scrolling through the trading log there- sounds like a good place to learn your chops. I’ve been taking Vad’s advice about taking a piece of the ‘middle’ of each move. I’ve been trading just 1-2% of the portfolio in short time increments, and making money consistently. Rather than (trying to) rake in 5 figures on a trade, I’m taking in 3 figures several times a day, and over the course of a week it adds up. Also cutting losses immediately should the move prove to be misread. Guess I’ll keep doing this until a clearer trend emerges.

          • OT(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 3:29 am

            2nd_ave – “OT- Now that’s inspiring! I’m going to down a cold one in honor of your perseverance- congratulations.”

            Thanks! Still waiting for the TOG. lol. Actually, I sold my position in WGW today and have sold covered calls on EGO, GG and SLW. SLW briefly hit the strike price today, but retreated. This time I am giving up some of the potential TOG in order to have cash to buy on significant dips.

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          May 28, 2009 at 9:29 pm

          TerryC – To the hard core traders out there it may not make a lot of sense to use capital returning over 15% to pay down debt costing over 5% but there you have it – the overriding need to be debt-free and answerable to nobody but the guy in the mirror.

          Terry, I’m a trader, and I’m also debt free. I totally understand what you mean. Something in me has always hated debt. If you can use your trading profits to pay down your debt, I say that’s awesome.

  123. David(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 7:19 pm

    A sell limit order was hit this morning at US$2.14 for the shares of PNP.TO I purchased at US$1.14 in September 2008 (the cash I received today for selling these shares was 1% of my portfolio). Sometimes my trades have a LONG holding period. :) I still have about 5% of my portfolio in PNP.TO at the average cost basis of around US$2.80. This was the case when averaging down did work out for, but only because PNP.TO is a fund and does not have a single company risk. For most of my other Canadian juniors averaging down did not work out yet, as they are all still significantly below my initial purchase price. In the future I will try to make sure that I average down only in large cap companies (which reflect performance of a whole sector) or in sector ETFs, which eventually always rebound, unlike small risky companies.

  124. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 7:19 pm

    Now I know what Bernanke was speaking of…

    http://tinyurl.com/l2e6jm

  125. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 8:08 pm

    from my disastrous performance since opening an IB account.

    Bill’s TOG is god’s gift to fools like me.

    See UNG is on the up – for how long? suspect answer lies with market as Dave remarked.

    night all.

  126. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 9:28 pm

    so gold closed down today but goldminers are up. Is it to do with silver being up?

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 9:49 pm

      Shiva – “gold closed down today but goldminers are up.”

      I seem to remember spot gold a bit lower this time yesterday, by about $10 or so…

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        May 28, 2009 at 10:02 pm

        my bad. $GOLD is not updated yet in stock charts. It did go up today.

  127. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 10:12 pm

    Vinod,

    Good job on the VNDA trade this morning.

  128. johnuk(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 10:29 pm
  129. mortgagpaid(118083 comments)-
    May 28, 2009 at 11:20 pm

    do realize that there are

    • Quasi(118083 comments)-
      May 28, 2009 at 11:38 pm

      Another day, another new alias and another redirect link to that same website. SPAMMER !!!

      • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
        May 29, 2009 at 1:29 am

        Quasi, the spamming starting a day or two ago. always a valid e-mail address that people can set up for a one-time spam. We may have to change the program here to stop mail to approve the first two or three comments.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          May 29, 2009 at 1:46 am

          “We may have to change the program here to stop mail to approve the first two or three comments.”

          It’s always my goal to share knowledge through discussion and example, for knowledge and ability to apply working knowledge empowers those who will ultimately win the war for social equity. I don’t concern myself with the possibility of empowering someone who may not contribute to the cause, my belief is they are a minority.

          • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 3:06 am

            Chickenpookie,

            Pardon me if I misunderstand, but these interventionists are out and out spammers. This blog has been under attack for two days and some people here understand what’s going on. I have a responsibility to keep this blog honest.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 6:43 am

            Bill – “Pardon me if I misunderstand, but these interventionists are out and out spammers.”

            I apologize Bill, I pasted the wrong text. I was attempting to provide feedback on the social equity issue… The message should’ve read:

            “At some point we’ll be gone, and hopefully the next wave will do an even better job in our struggle for social equity.”

            “It’s always my goal to share knowledge through discussion and example, for knowledge and ability to apply working knowledge empowers those who will ultimately win the war for social equity. I don’t concern myself with the possibility of empowering someone who may not contribute to the cause, my belief is they are a minority.”

            Rest assured, I completely support maintaining honesty, respect and honor the spirit to the best of my ability. Your observation about leaving earth is a subject that hits home with me, one of my favorite pastimes is conversing with the “old guys”, I find their knowledge incredibly vast and valuable. A lifetime of experience is not something easily obtained.

            I had completely tuned out the spammer’s verbage, furthest thing from my mind.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 11:54 am

            I am at a loss about the problem. What am I missing here? I’m not getting any spam. It sounds like people are being redirected to another website, but I have not experienced that.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 12:04 pm

            THIS site is getting spammed. It’s the link in the subject line that redirects. This person has been spamming this site for three-four days, each time a different name and one post.

            Just don’t use the link in the subject line. When it doesn’t work it won’t be worth the effort.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            May 29, 2009 at 12:44 pm
  130. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 1:23 am
  131. vinod(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 2:03 am
    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      May 29, 2009 at 2:21 am

      Vinod,
      I like this one. Kind of gives me a ballpark of how far it could go before reversing, makes sense what he says

      http://www.scribd.com/doc/15034069/Jeremy-Grantham

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 29, 2009 at 3:07 am

        Shiva- Thanks for the link.

        We all need our POVs (or PsOV) shaken up periodically, or they get stale. I like the idea (it was only a few short months ago we all liked the idea) of the DJIA hitting 10000-11000, with shorts leading the charge the entire way.

        What about the idea that financials are undervalued? A great buy? Well, I’m going to at least entertain the thought.

        • Shiva(118083 comments)-
          May 29, 2009 at 3:20 am

          2nd, I like his viewpoint that S&P could run upto 1000+ and retrace to either March lows or about there. It gives me a slightly larger view for making trades rather than confining to short side. Also the macro trends take more time to develop and are easily noticeable if we keep a watch (Bonds up n down – that trend went for about 4 months, USD up n down). I read some of his 2008 archives and his prognosis is spot on and pretty much in line with Bill’s commentary. You can read the archives in GMO.com

          On $WTIC, i read somewhere that last few months, these buggers have been storing them in ships in Amsterdam & elsewhere. Now they are doing all they can do to push up the prices (including GS),coupled with summer driving, it can be an easy trigger to offload their stock.

          On refineries, thats another big scam, oil down but cost of gas up by a huge %.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 29, 2009 at 2:58 am

      vinod – Interesting presentation, thanks for posting that. The slide projecting Federal Deficit sure looks ominous, there will have to be some reconciliatory adjustments.

  132. ChrisM(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 2:04 am

    A question for those familiar with the US tax code, or even may have been in a similar situation.
    I sold the “Rights” issued on my PDS – didn’t want to increase my position. So is this treated as ordinary income, a change in my PDS basis or ???

    TIA
    Chris

  133. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 3:11 am

    A couple days ago at 13.97 silver I mentioned 14.50 was in my mind’s eye. And now it is 15.28. There is little resistance up to about 17.

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      May 29, 2009 at 3:21 am

      Bill, Thx, i still have slw. What do you think of gold? will it run upto 1000 in the current run?

      • tgifbipo(118083 comments)-
        May 29, 2009 at 11:22 am

        Today could be the day as we are already up to $975, am keeping an eye on the close for the miners, too many times they have been pushed up in the last half hour only to sharply reverse on Mondays. Sold half of my HGU yesterday and will sell the rest on the anticipated early spike although i do feel that they will rise into days end. May be a good time to open a small short position into the close.

  134. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 3:33 am

    ALOHA!!

    I got this e-mail ad from Bayley’s, a New Zealand real estate firm. Looks like the commercial properties have found a way to grab investors by doing an IPO of their property.

    Link: http://tlcollect.com/ve/ZZR6089dM58a80LbmL

    Hummmmm … I don’t know … “43% prime bank debt”!

  135. jack black(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 4:37 am

    I mentioned this on a few occasions here that Fed should consider tightening or at least some jawboning in the face of the bond yield rise.
    Finally, I found someone that agrees (and has a nice chart to illustrate):

    “The Treasury yield curve has been as steep as it is today two other times in recent history.
    […]
    the bond market is signaling that the Fed has probably eased enough for now and should begin tightening, because inflation expectations have picked up significantly.”

    http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2009/05/very-stee

    The possibility is very real now and I will be looking for a good point to sell 50% of my miners.

    One more thing, I googled for “mortgage rate spike” and the search returned various stories dated 10/18/2008, 6/14/2007, 2/20/2008, 1/17/2007, 7/24/2008, and 5/28/2009 (just from the first page, too tired to look for more). While the timing was not perfect, those were not bad times to walk away from risky investments. We don’t know about 5/28/09 yet, of course.

  136. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 9:06 am

    Gold and silver are going absolutely nuts in asia this afternoon.
    Oil is up a little, and so is the S&P:

    Gold +11 to 974
    Silver +0.40 to 15.55
    Oil +0.525
    S&P +4.00

    I’m not sure what this means, because I’ve never seen it happen before.
    Perhaps this is the blow off top? PM should open way up in NY if this holds.

    The buck is down a bit against the euro and the pound, but not dramatically.

    The news headlines on Bloomberg are an explosion of happiness. It’s the most
    bullish news day in asia I have seen in probably 6 months. (I have a little program
    that measures these things)

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      May 29, 2009 at 9:43 am

      How do we put this in context with Bill’s trading cycle. We know that PM’s are the last to pop before we see a down cycle, but nothing is normal in this market. Analyst interviewed in Yahoo tech ticker calling the contrary contrarian – everyone is dissing the rally, so the rally will continue.

      But where’s the beef?

      Vol. on SPY remains thinner than period around March low.

      This isn’t HB&B racking up another stellar quarter on the quant trading desk?

  137. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 10:48 am

    http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/05/winner-at-losin

    Morning country.
    Dollar
    Pound/Dollar chart
    Buy signal on the Mamis-Meisler breadth oscillator?
    Trade Universe
    Stay focused.

  138. tango6(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 11:46 am

    From Bloomberg this am:

    World Recession Easing;
    Signs Worst May Be Over
    Stocks Rise on Evidence of Recovery

    So stop worrying.

  139. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 12:07 pm

    ALOHA !!

    Two RATIOS to consider …

    HOME/GOLD RATIO
    The average price of a home in America measured in gold ounces at the height of the last gold mania in 1980 was 90 ounces, now it costs 192 ounces. Back in 2001 a median single-family home cost 601 gold ounces. a decline of 68%.

    CHART OF THE DAY
    For example, it currently takes 192 ounces of gold to by the median single-family home. This is considerably less that the 601 ounces it took back in 2001. When priced in gold, the median single-family home is down 68% from its 2001 peak and remains within the confines of its four-year accelerated downtrend.

    Link: http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090529.gif

    DOW/GOLD RATIO
    The gold price of the DOW is now at 8.62. It takes 8.62 gold ounces to buy the DOW(closed at 8403 with POG at $975). In 1980 the DOW/GOLD RATIO was at “1” … In 1931 during the height of the Great Depression the ratio was at “2”. If you look at a long term chart of the GOLD/DOW RATIO going back to 1900 the channel shows a lot of support at a ratio of “7.5” … ALthough back in 1979 that channel broke down seriously at a ratio of “5” and then bottomed at “1” a year later.

    DOW/GOLD RATIO link: http://tinyurl.com/yknlfw

    In the space of 13 years from 1967 to 1980 the DOW/GOLD RATIO tanked from the peak in 1967 of 27.9 down to 1.0. The last peak was around 2000 at 43.7. Perhaps in 2013 we will see the bottom? The last few major peak intervals averaged 35 years. That would place the next DOW peak at 2035.

    Its the battle between hard assets and paper assets …

    FED FUNDS RATE ANGLE
    At what price would SMART MONEY exchange gold for paper(debt)? That was the question that Paul Volcker was faced with in 1979. Now 30 years later he is still faced with that same question. Back then he raised the Fed Funds to 20% in order to control the POG. What’s current Fed Funds rate at? Its practically ZERO … 0.18 … Hummmmm????

    No matter how you look at it the POG has to rise long term and then there is the geopolitical angle, which could cause some major short term spikes along the way. Right now I doubt there is much of any geopolitical factor in any markets, especially the DOW/NASDAQ.

    Out of all the scenarios of doom and gloom being bantered about these days only one investment has never had to file BK simply because it never has a counterparty. There’s the S&P AAA and then there’s GOLD! We all have seen how sloppy the S&P has been with their AAA … What bubble now has the latest sloppy S&P AAA? What CHANGE?

    IT IS WHAT IT IS …

  140. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 12:18 pm

    Good Morning.

    ECA – Downgraded to Market Perform @ BMO

    JNJ – Piper Jaffray Initiates Coverage with a Neutral

  141. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 12:19 pm

    ALOHA !!

    Hummmm, SLR(ASX)up to $0.70AUD(+17%) on over 2mil volume(at half day). One news item about Mt Monger, but after reading it I am not sure this is the “be all one and only” driver. Mix in some POG stuff and that adds to the rocket fuel. It is nice to see lots of sparkly gold bits in drill core though! That means some better than average grades but lets see what the widths are. Shallow stuff … a PLUS!! Then on top of that its right at level 8 in their own 100% owned mine with 100% of infrastructure.

    I noticed yesterday right at the ASX close someone came in and bought up SLR last minute. That had to be someone who knew something about today’s news.

    Thank you Les Davis … the WMC connection is proving to be spot on! SLR is loaded to the gills with that management.

    SLR = 480%+ gain

    Still not selling …

    CLOSED AT $0.705AUD WITH 2.8MIL VOLUME …

  142. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 12:35 pm

    Target raised from 50 to 52 by Blackmont

  143. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 29, 2009 at 12:41 pm

    ….

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