Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., May 20, 2009

[6:55am ET] The Obama Administration is about the show the world that the American President is very much not his own man. Of course, during the election campaign we saw that the candidate possessed little experience or expertise in the field of economics and finance, so why should we be so surprised that the staff who do and who moved into the White House are linked not to the public who elected the President but to Wall Street.

The President promised change, and now the public is soon to discover that Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) will be taking control of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the government regulator whose present mandate is to serve and protect the people.
http://tinyurl.com/rcbd4l

Mr. President, you permit that change on your watch and you will be responsible for unimaginable consequences to your country. It

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204 Comments

  1. papadynamite(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 11:52 am

    Does anyone know anything about this company? All I can find is that they are doing exploration in southern Alaska, the Pebble Project, for which they have a 50% interest. The technicals look interesting but I don’t know if I should step my toe in the water.

    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 12:20 pm

      ALOHA !!

      Fundamentally speaking … I owned it at $0.65USD way back and I sold it … the grades are below 1g/t, but a huge deposit with litigious enviro speed bumps galore! Some BIG majors are on board though.

      Its one of these typical TSX listed juniors that are addicted to unlimited exploration budgets and no production! If you are done with that mentality then move to the ASX!

      I love the HD GROUP though and this was spawned from their 2002 incubator model.

  2. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 11:56 am

    ALOHA!!

    WOW … HEY Jeanne Garafalo, this looks like one big huge TEA PARTY to me! Every CALI proposition to raise taxes was defeated, even the Education Funding! WOW … that used to be the mainstay of my business niche doing public works construction in San Francisco, CA bay area and it was the SACRED COW. I cannot imagine what the bidding wars must look like now. They probably need a couple school buses to do BID WALKS now!

    CALI PROPS
    Well here is the results of the latest proposition results with 100% precincts reporting:

    N 1A “Rainy Day” Budget Stabilization Fund 1,327,400 34.1% 2,555,519 65.9%
    N 1B Education Funding. Payment Plan. 1,452,535 37.4% 2,421,906 62.6%
    N 1C Lottery Modernization Act 1,368,222 35.4% 2,493,770 64.6%
    N 1D Children’s Services Funding 1,324,252 34.2% 2,536,657 65.8%
    N 1E Mental Health Funding 1,292,437 33.6% 2,549,361 66.4%
    Y 1F Elected Officials Salaries 2,859,122 73.9% 1,010,457 26.1%

    The little “N” and “Y” means if it passed or not … “N” = NO and “Y” = YES.

    The only proposition that passed was 1F, where elected officials salaries cannot increase during a budget deficit year. I guess that means “forever” unless the elected officials can get “jiggy” with the numbers like the US banks just did and hide the losses!

    Can you imagine the idiot at Sacramento that named PROP 1A … “RAINY DAY”? They should have called it “DAILY HURRICANE AND HUGE ASS AVALANCHE” …

    So if CALI is any example, the citizens are DONE WITH TAXES! WHAT A MANDATE! If that is the case then all GOVERNMENT at all levels must now close up their special little PROMISES SHOPS or get PRINTY! The US TAX REVENUES continue to collapse with no end in sight, yet OBAMA now has spent $7.603TRIL so far in FY2009 according to the latest May 18th US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT. That works out to be $950BIL USD per month or $32BIL USD every day or $1.3BIL per hour! These people who now run our country are SPENDING ADDICTS! They’re in some SPENDY EUPHORIA DEATH SPIRAL … Someone call 911!

    This pretty much confirms our move to HAWAII … My wife and I left California because the taxes were too high and the State was always broke and asking for more taxes. So as the elected officials keep spending they have driven out some of the best businesses and business people. My company was churning out millions in revenues every year and I was personally paying the State of California six figure income tax revenues every year. All that corporate tax and individual tax revenue is gone now. I sold and I … M-O-V-E-D!

    If you go to this website which I follow somewhat Tim Iacono has officially disclosed to his readers that in ten days he is moving out of California. He says this about himself.

    “Tim Iacono

    About Me
    I am a retired software engineer and, in addition to writing this blog, I am also the founder of the investment website Iacono Research and the author of a weekly newsletter that focuses on investing in natural resources.”END

    The most productive of my long term friends who had businesses in California have moved out. Two that I know have moved to Nevada(less taxes). These people are small business people who are very successful at what they do but do not care to blindly hand over hundreds of thousands of their hard-earned cash to the State Of California’s giant black hole of DEBT! Not much we can do about the US GOVERNMENT, but we can move to States with much friendlier tax brackets.

    I believe that CALI will see much more BRAIN DRAIN … I would think there would be many Presidents of countries lined up a mile to throw GOOG ten and twenty year tax incentives just to relocate to their country.

    At some point the tax hell deterrent trumps the “cool”!

    ALL OUR BEST THINKING …

    • number2son(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 12:40 pm

      The other striking thing about the California results is the low turn out. It looks like only the libertarians among us bothered to vote. And so this is the result.

      I have no cause to complain since I was among those who didn’t vote. I am disgusted by the ineffectiveness of government and this phony Governor’s endless attempts to legislate using the awful proposition system.

      That said, I don’t share Kaimu’s glib satisfaction that this will occasion more hardship on Californians. I’ve already mentioned what’s happening at my wife’s school (how ironic if Kaimu was the builder of that school!) 😉

      And sorry to disappoint you, K, but I still prefer the SF Bay Area to Nevada or anywhere else in the U.S. But riding this thing out from Hawaii must be cool. Too bad so many are not as fortunate.

      • kaimu(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 2:19 pm

        ALOHA !!

        number2son posted … “I don’t share Kaimu’s glib satisfaction …”

        Jeez mate, its not glib satisfaction its called “planning the plan and trading the plan”. So much emphasis here is placed on “short term trades” that the long term “trades” like paying off debt and positioning hard asset hedges against wealth confiscation become invisible strategies. After the TECH BUBBLE burst my strategy shifted towards long term monetary trends and away from stock market momentum trading. Of course “long term” anything is so NOT SEXY in America!

        “Riding out in Hawaii” was a very long term plan that started in 1996.

        I understand the basic human condition … short circuit the 9-5 job and jump to McMansion Bahama beach life! Just look at what the SEC publishes on their website about that.

        “As more and more first-time investors turn to the markets to help secure their futures, pay for homes, and send children to college, our investor protection mission is more compelling than ever.”END

        Hummmmmm?? Okay SEC, thanks for your protection services …

        I find that mentality very dangerous yet it pervades the American psyche now.

        Far fewer little guys will succeed in the end, even with the SEC’s “help” to tame HB&B! HA!!

        During the collapse of the German Mark in the 1920s there was huge rampant stock market speculation. In desperate times everybody wants to win the Lotto! The winners during that monetary collapse were out of the Mark and the major cities and preferably Germany.

        If your wife’s school is not in the Mt. Diablo Unififed School Dist, the San Jose Unified or Pittsburg/Antioch Unified or Vallejo/Fairfield Unified or Menlo College or Stanford then chances are I didn’t build her classroom! If you are on your way to prison then the ones I built are Ione State Prison, Corcoran State, Vacaville State, Folsom and Yolo County. The nicest jail cells are at Yolo County(its like a mall), so I recommend committing crimes in that vicinity! And if you work at the Benicia Water Treatment Plant, Mare Island or Sea World then I did those also! The punchlists were signed off years ago, so no complaining please!

        From what I recall of California politics PROPOSITIONS have been the mainstay for decades! No CHANGE there … What has changed about California?

        That’s why we moved … You know … hows the definition of “insanity” go? Something about repeating the same mistakes …

        I try to abandon sinking ships …

        IT IS …

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 2:19 pm

      Government’s knee-jerk response to budget deficits is always higher taxes, there’s just no end. They just don’t get it, do they?

      The public gets it!!! Next step should be the voting in of new governmental concepts. Let’s see if the people are finally going to do something meaningful about getting the point across…

  3. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 12:16 pm

    Curse me Bill, but I forwarded today’s commentary to the White House.

    My family received yesterday’s excellent update of where we are at.

    The President’s groupies can take today’s commentary any way they want to.

  4. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 12:19 pm

    Good morning.

    Three Upgrades to kick off the day:

    COST – to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
    NOK – to Buy @ Deutsche Securities
    PG – to Overweight @ Barclays

  5. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 12:19 pm
  6. Milesquare(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
    – Ludwig von Mises

    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 12:41 pm

      ALOHA !!

      According to the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT it will be the latter …

      Mises also said … “Government is essentially the negation of liberty.”

      Well, if the US GOVERNMENT isn’t then the US FED and the SEC surely will negate liberty and wealth as well …

  7. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    ALOHA !!

    What must Germans think of GOLD ATM machines? Could that ever catch on in the USA?

    READ ON:
    German firm plans gold ATMs to feed explosive growth in physical gold demand

    A German asset management firm plans to set up 500 gold automatic teller machines across Germany, Austria and Switzerland as appetite for physical gold surges.
    Author: Peter Starck
    Posted: Wednesday , 20 May 2009

    FRANKFURT (Reuters) –

    Private investors should hold up to 15 percent of their wealth in physical gold, according to a German asset management company which plans to set up 500 “Gold-To-Go” ATMs in Germany, Switzerland and Austria this year.

    A gold-dispensing automatic teller machine (ATM) was on display at Frankfurt’s main railway station for a one-day marketing test on Tuesday.

    A one-gram (0.0353 ounce) piece of gold, the size of a child’s little fingernail and about as thin, cost 31 euros ($42.25) — a 30 percent premium to the spot market price.

    The flat rectangular piece, bearing the imprint of Belgian metals and speciality materials firm Umicore (UMI.BR: Quote), came out of the cash-only ATM in a tin box, including a certificate of authenticity.

    DEMAND

    Private investor demand for gold is on the rise in Germany and elsewhere as a result of the financial markets crisis, which has made many investors wary of holding traditional assets such as equities, bonds or mutual funds investing in such securities.

    “In absolute numbers, the demand for physical gold is still tiny in Germany,” Geissler said. “But in relative terms, the growth is explosive, inquiries have been doubling every six weeks,” Geissler said of the trend in recent months.

    TG-Gold-Super-Mark.de’s main precious metals business idea is based on online commerce.

    The gold ATMs to be set up at central locations such as airports, railway stations and shopping malls are intended to gradually accustom people to the idea of investing in physical gold, Geissler said.

    The ATMs will dispense 1-gram, 5-gram and 10-gram pieces of gold as well as Krugerrand gold coins. Each ATM can hold up to 1,500 pieces, he said.

    The company’s internet website http://www.gold-super-mark.de , through which investors can purchase units between 1 gram and 1,000 grams, is updating precious metals prices every 10 minutes.END

    Hummmmm?? How heavy is that machine?

    • cuvo(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 12:40 pm

      You may get a stiff neck from looking over your shoulder while using. Perhaps the back of the receipt could feature a coupon for chiropractic services… or self-defense classes.

  8. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 12:47 pm

    LONDON, May 20 (Reuters) – The euro rose on Wednesday, while the dollar hit its lowest level against a basket of currencies in more than four months as slight gains in U.S. stock futures prompted some investors toward perceived riskier assets.

  9. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:00 pm

    kaimu-

    My suggestion would be to legalize drugs. The state would benefit from hefty taxes on sales, while simultaneously see spending on courts/prisons/police cut by 80% (not to mention the benefits of a much lower crime rate). JMO.

    • number2son(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 1:51 pm

      2nd –

      Or at least decriminalize drugs or eliminate the disastrous 3-strike law that has landed so many petty drug dealers in jail, at enormous social cost and taxpayer expense.

      • ChrisM(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 1:59 pm

        Not just decriminalize – that’s a half measure. Full legalization brings the added benefit of a taxable business, all above board. Let Philip Morris put the drug cartels out of business.
        Prohibition, version 1, trashed the Chicago police department, version 2 has almost destroyed countries.
        Yes, drugs are bad, but the best way to reduce use is social pressure – how many tobacco smokers around these days? Not too many public drunks either.
        Added advantage of full legalization – quality control.
        FD – like my 2 glasses of wine daily – for health reasons, of course.

        • number2son(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 2:16 pm

          Another argument in favor of decriminalization is that you could then devote resources to treatment, rehabilitation and economic development, which would do infinitely more to solve the problem of drug abuse than the catastrophic solutions pursued for the past 20 years.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 2:20 pm

            Light drugs, the one classification of jobs that can be in-sourced.
            They’ll give us the Taliban’s jobs….

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 2:21 pm

        number2son, agreed

        Let these petty drug dealers out of the prisons. Legalize pot and tax it.

        Prison Facts:
        http://webb.senate.gov/pdf/prisonstwopager.html

        • kaimu(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 2:55 pm
          • Les(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 3:01 pm

            RE:>I am all for legalization also … so was Bob Marley, but the DEA isn’t!

            here here. Entertain these fantasies if you will, but drugs means control and I’m not convinced from the actions of government throughout history that governments are ready to give up that sort of control.

            Money for enforcement they can spend. It is after all your money.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 3:17 pm

            Well you guys have to go back to CA.

            It will blow your mind more than the weed IN the stores.

            Kaimu, with your recent foot accident you are certainly eligible for a prescription.

            I think within reason, the people have taken back their rights.
            No jury, no need for a prosecutor to bother. You would be hard pressed to find twelve people to convict in California. All it takes is one to throw it out. Within reason…

          • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 5:22 pm

            And then there’s the infamous Max Ward who did 11 years (Should have been life)in Folsom prison for 2 counts of 1st degree murder. Rose Bird ruled that indeterminate sentencing was not humane and so she let a whole bunch of real bad guys walk. And Jerry Brown is back at the wheel in California government. If he ever becomes governor again, I think that will be my tipping point for leaving this state.

  10. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:02 pm

    I see the opening will be exactly what I was trying to avoid. Glad I stayed out of the way. I’m going to wait for a better ‘signal’ than instinct to get short. All cash right now.

    (Sorry for the duplicate posts- just moving them to the correct session.)

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 2:56 pm

      2nd
      don’t have much time for market today.
      but my order for -OXBRE got filled for 9.80
      and got TZA at 24.62. and still open for SRS at 19.60. will see you after closed

  11. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:06 pm

    Despite the USD crashing through the floor over the past few days, the NY cartel has still been able to keep gold below the $930 mark. The battle continues this morning. When this defensive line is finally abandoned for higher ground, expect extremely coiled gold to make a major upward move. Tick Tock Tick Tock!

  12. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:15 pm

    I wonder….If we all called our CC co’s and told them loudly and aggressively that we intend to pay them back to get them off our backs…if it would help with our credit rating or perceived ability to actually pay or stay solvent.

    The bankers act with all the sophistication of a 13 year old wanting an allowance raise.

  13. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:23 pm

    That those who build schools also build prisons….Both are proud American institutions, both serve necessary functions, and the widespread systematic failure of the former has led to over-use of the latter. Earnestly, what is school but a “socializing institution”? When I went to school, schools were modeled after the suburban work-campuses popular among the formerly employed. Post Columbine, I suppose they have safe rooms, turrets, and bullet-resistant glass.

    Sent Bill’s words to the White House huh? This should provide a good test of Obama’s tolerance for dissent, but in case it does not work, I hope Korvus is ready willing and able to step in to edit the blog.

    SQNM happening finally?

    Oh I see gold futures are being sold now. It must be morning.

    Too many Washington traitors speaking today for my taste.

    Regarding metals, I consider it to be the case that the dollar IS effectively no longer the global reserve currency, simply because the Chinese said so. They’re stockpiling metals, and so should we.

  14. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    full scale assault taking place on the US dollar this morning,
    USD index down to $81.70 as i write.

    if gold can breach the walls at $930 and up along w/ some better than anemic volume on the shares we move into full-scale breakout territory.

    if if if.

  15. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:31 pm

    Kaimu and others warn us that our creditors are getting worried about our ability to pay our debts. Let’s view this from a closer perspective.

    I wrote a while ago about my local county and city not having their usual credit lines to run everyday affairs.

    Today we have the Treasurer of the State of California telling us their usual lines of credit are “unavailable”. IOW, OUR OWN BANKS will lend to individuals (CC’s and some mortgage debt) but will NOT loan to the collective governments of the people. IOW, the people TOGETHER are not credit worthy, but individually they still see a few suckers that can pay.

    Forget everything else. If the banks won’t or can’t loan to us collectively backed by “our good faith” then they are telling us something VERY important about our situation.

    • number2son(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 1:53 pm

      Craig, the banks are telling us that our Congress were suckers to give them all that bailout money.

  16. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:32 pm

  17. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:37 pm

    POG going vertical

  18. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:39 pm

    long gss as investment

  19. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:40 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/pbfzgj

    Dr. Ron Paul is saying that the dissent in Congress is quickly building with respect to dissolving the Fed.

    • terryC(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 4:03 pm

      Geithner’s appeal for “rules of the road” to ensure against “manipulation, deception and abuse” takes equivocation to a whole new level. Rules are for game-players, the HB&B crowd for whom he speaks. The focus of government must be law enforcement. These recent initiatives make it even more apparent that HB&B intends to marginalize the SEC in order to buy time until wars, assassinations, and other geopolitical crises push the problems they have caused to the back burner of public awareness and the demands for accountability evaporate.

      What the people demand is a restrengthened and empowered SEC where those who violate securities laws and commit fraud are punished with appropriate jail time. It is only when those fraudsters within the HB&B community go to jail that American-style capitalism and market confidence will be restored.

  20. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:48 pm

    Since when does the President of the United States have the power to order successful auto dealerships to close their doors, terminate their people and sell off the inventory? Obama has taken that power into his own hands and it’s flat out un-American.

    Previously, I remarked that this President had ventured into territory no previous President had gone when he named names of law-abiding people that caused him “outrage” — people like GM’s CEO Rick Wagoner and the traders at AIG. I stated that there was the rule of law that is in place to protect these people and they deserved better.

    The majority of Americans had better wake up, soon.

    • gdiman(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 3:23 pm

      “Since when does the President of the United States have the power to order successful auto dealerships to close their doors, terminate their people and sell off the inventory? Obama has taken that power into his own hands and it’s flat out un-American.”

      I very much concur Bill. That this administration believes that they have the right to interfere with private enterprise truly disturbs me. I think we can all agree that politicians, regardless of stripe, have no business in business.

      My local Chrysler dealer called me yesterday because my Dodge vehicle, which I purchased new from them 3 years ago, is about to come out of warranty and they wanted to know if I’d be interested in trading up. I’m not really wanting to trade or sell right now because I like mine just fine, but I like that they are paying attention to me. They carry all of the Chrysler brands and I think that’s one reason they escaped Chrysler’s (Obama’s?) dealership axe job.

      Not all of them were so lucky though and here is one of those dealer’s story.

      http://tinyurl.com/poqskd

  21. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 1:50 pm

  22. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:02 pm

    MCD – Upgraded at Deutsche Bank from Hold to Buy. $65 price target. Company generates attractive cash flow and has several potential upcoming catalysts.

  23. TraderGirl(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:07 pm

    The banks gave their toxic paper and got money. Now, they want to pay back the money. Who is left holding the toxic crap?

  24. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:08 pm

    I’ll be meeting with my oil guy today, but remember him saying about 4 months ago, once crude breaks 60…watch out. Kicking myself for missing adding to PXP, HK, CHK last Friday. Looking for a pull back that I might not get.

    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 2:38 pm

      hi mark,

      let us know what your oil guy says – I am glad I bought some SU last week on the dip but would like to add to oil position.

      added to WGW yesterday AM.

      trying to stay positive in all this but keep wondering what’s next? Involuntary human chip implants?

      vb

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 2:47 pm

        VB- Will do..Keep thinking that the historical ratio of Crude/NG is 6/1. Right now we are about 18/1. Everything reverts to the mean. I like SU. Oils sands work at 60, but 70 is a real winner for SU. Still holding KGC, AUY, AA, UNG, PXP, CHK, HK,DVN, XTO.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 7:18 pm

      “Kicking myself for missing adding to PXP, HK, CHK last Friday.”

      Mark, don’t underestimate the correlation between the oil and gas stocks with S&P. This correlation was the *main* driver of the stocks rather than the price of the underlying commodity. So you should add to these stocks only if you believe that S&P will not pull back below 880 in the next few months. If you think that it will, then you will most likely get a better price for these stocks once S&P pulls back.

  25. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:09 pm

    USD index to 81.62 as per Kitco’s charts… what a drop in the past 24 hours.

    wonder if this holds through the session as gold jumps to $940.

    TLT/bonds seem to be holding yesterday’s levels though. wonder if something is about to be leaked through the media that is especially dollar bearish…

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 2:18 pm

      You were reading my mind Dr. Cosa!

      Whenever we see this it isn’t long before the Fed or Treasury makes some announcement. I see UUP is wandering back a few pennies…

  26. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:10 pm

    Check out the GDX breakout. My calls I bought yesterday are pretty happy. 🙂
    Sometimes aggressive trades pay off.

    I kinda figured GDX would pop if POG went up +10 today.

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 2:59 pm

      all the gold miners could have an interesting run if Bill’s prediction of gold at 980 – 1000 comes true….

  27. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:13 pm

    Well I got this mornings mkt move wrong. Again the lesson is go with the trend until it tells you it has turned. Sold most of my TZA at a loss this morning. Still holding faz, which is near my purchase price.

    The 7am MBA purchase report http://tinyurl.com/p3c3xd was not good, but this mkt eats bad news for breakfast and powers on. The EIA petroleum status report will be up at 10:30am.

    Today, I have a viewing to go to for a relative and other chores.
    Good trading and good luck to everyone!

  28. yvrapx(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:25 pm
    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 4:27 pm
      • yvrapx(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 4:33 pm

        Ok, so ‘like’ isn’t an accurate term, I guess I meant you would concur w/Rosie because of the past content of your posts. The demographic angle and wealth destruction can’t be discounted for sure. Coxe is on the same page vis-a-vis the housing bubble.

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 7:34 pm
          • yvrapx(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 7:42 pm

            Agreed Grym and I believe the US Bill is hoping will rise up to stop this madness doesn’t exist. APATHY is the word of the day and like you describe it won’t be one thing that tips the balance but a conglomeration of things akin to the boiled frog. I worry the longer the graft continues it becomes the new norm. sammas is correct that you need to vote (support) the things that support you and your beliefs.

          • sammas(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 7:45 pm

            “…remember a great nation can tolerate a lot of ruin.”

            um, why would it want to again?

            (rhetorical; understand that it was not your comment)

  29. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:31 pm

    Ka-ching!

  30. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:41 pm

    “Bofa raising more capital” is apparently more important.

    reel those suckers in boyz!

  31. Rugger09(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    I already have a good position with G.to and have added some WGI.to in hopes POG really uncoils to the upside. Interesting times.

    Life can always be worse. I woke up this morning to -15 degrees celcius and snowing. I was questioning what hemisphere I was in…???!!!

  32. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:46 pm

    Canadian dollar just broke above it’s most recent high in November. Don’t tell me we’re headed back to parity??

  33. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 2:53 pm

    waiting to see if POG rises or is suppressed this afternoon.

    UXG has lagged other miners until now, and picked up 10% this morning. It might appreciate further than the other juniors in the coming 24-48 hours.

    Going out this evening, so want to see a little moolah after such a frustrating month.

    Interestingly, it took UXG 5 minutes to appreciate after POG started shooting. That’s four minutes and 50 seconds with which I can jump back in again if I’m in front of the screen.

  34. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 3:16 pm

    Volume on BAC is even more massive today. Someone is distributing a huge number of shares. What I want to know is, who is actually stepping up to buy? Pension funds? Assets under management, as Bill says? 400M+ shares traded so far just today – an average day’s volume in the first 90 minutes. There’s an astonishing transfer of money going on, from the insiders to the bagholders.

    Looking at the daily chart, I’d say that’s bearish for BAC. Really massive volume and no movement.

    Sure, now this makes sense. They have to keep things up until the insiders dump their BAC, and that could take a few days, even with the current volume.

    FD: short BAC (again)

  35. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    ’nuff said.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 5:14 pm

      …(in at 5.06)…

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 5:23 pm

        which time did you buy it at 506? The first time it went there, the second time(coming down) or the third time, which was and often is the charm?

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 6:34 pm

          shark- Based on the intraday chart, I would say it was the first time (I made the purchase at the time I made the post). I can’t watch the ticks at the day job, so the buy was based more or less on the weakness I saw in the indexes at the time + a bet at least a few bulls would panic/sell out and ask questions later. I took the bet off when it was clear a massive sell-off was not going to happen.

          • vinod(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 7:50 pm

            2nd
            out -OXBRE at 14.60
            and TZA at 27.42

          • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 9:01 pm

            2nd,

            You are the man, my man. This index was on my radar for today just didn’t watch it properly as I only have ONE SCREEN at present. You had the right idea, just could have held it longer. Common thing. I am really trying harder to increase my hold times. I did well on GSS though.

            BTW…I would never consider trying to collect on the win, but are we not now upon the time when ESLR was supposed to be at 18? And am I not now entitled to 17 virgins and a case of scotch (single malt, of course)? Send me the scotch at least!

            And if you DO want to pay me, maybe you oughtta come out east and we’ll go up to Vinod’s and get really really drunk on the beach on hot, moonlit summer’s night the three of us and whoever else is around. CARA north. Maybe Bill can swing by. Cape Cod’s getting VERY nice about now:)

          • vinod(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 9:06 pm

            shark_attack
            and For single guy like you I will arrange a nice company from escort service.

          • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 9:10 pm

            That will be much appreciated, and is quite necessary:)

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 9:41 pm

            vinod – “For single guy like you I will arrange a nice company”

            Wow, vinod has his own beach, his own vineyard/distillery, and his own escort service??? I’ll bet he’s even got his own fleet of fishing vessels for collecting clams. We’ve definitely got to make it up there for the party/sleepover at vinod’s house!!! Vinod, you’ve been holding out on us… 😉

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 10:57 pm

            shark- Don’t worry, I’m good for it. July 4 was the date. I plan to have Vad autograph a copy (if he’s willing), then send it off to you.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 11:27 pm

            Vinod- Normally I would have scaled into FAZ pre-market, around 4.75. But I thought I would take Vad’s advice about waiting for a clear(er) signal. That happened (for me) at 5.06- for some reason, I just ‘knew’ it was going higher. Either way, I would have exited at 5.29 (early). So you could say I took a bite near the center of the move. I would say it worked well- I was able to take a larger position than usual due to (perceived) higher odds of success, and probably wound up with similar gains with fewer headaches. (I was also able to successfully put the FAZ curse to rest.)

          • vinod(118083 comments)-
            May 21, 2009 at 12:04 am
  36. Fox1(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 3:37 pm
  37. FireFly(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 3:46 pm

    Says deal valued at $395 mln
    Says deal accretive to cash flow on a per-unit basis

    May 20 (Reuters) – Pipeline operator TC Pipelines LP (TCLP.O) said it would buy North Baja Pipeline LLC, a subsidiary of natural gas transportation and storage company TransCanada Corp (TRP.TO), for $395 million in cash and common units.

    http://bit.ly/100A0L

  38. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 3:50 pm

    So one of Bill’s criteria for initiating short positions appears to be closer today in financial stocks, namely, a lower high after the primary peak.

    WFC, JPM, AXP, FITB, MET, PRU, and to some extent, the XLF itself.

    Shorting these things is like juggling live hand grenades, but – I just can’t resist.

    FD: short FAS, short XLF

  39. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    As you can surmise, I sold the GSS at a nicely profitable 2.08 off my buy price of 2. And a good thing too. Now when to re-buy……Hard to say.

  40. sammas(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 3:59 pm
    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 4:08 pm

      Sadly the vast majority of the public don’t perceive the outrage because it doesn’t affect their life at this moment. Far too many people live paycheck to paycheck to worry about inflation eroding savings, future taxation of their children, corruption among the elite, etc.

      As long as they can fill the car with fuel to drive to the mall to buy a tv, and then sit on their couch and be entertained, they don’t perceive a problem. Don’t expect the masses to revolt until their lifestyles have been materially altered, and that won’t happen until it’s too late for preemptive reform, which is what should be happening now but won’t.

      It’s depressing. Sometimes I wish I was one of those blissful types who didn’t read the news, or blogs such as this, just lived my life ignorant of the power struggles and corruption. But at the same time I love the intrigue. Too bad there’s so little we can do…

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 4:48 pm

      Sammas,

      “Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt.” Samuel Adams”

      There is really a lot of greed in the system today. I once heard a CEO say, he is like a hollywood actor or a sportsman and deserve to be paid $50 mill or whatever compensation, board has agreed.

      Unless this compensation ratio is reigned in by market forces (shareholders, consumers etc & not by the govt), no permanent changes is going to happen.

      More and more people will find ways and means to jump to the crook side to make quick money & today it is housing scam, tomorrow it will be another. GE story is a good one, how Jack Welch moved it from an industrial company to a financial company & screwed it (he retired rich though).

    • nemo(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 6:11 pm

      Nature is unkind, it treats the myriad things as straw dogs
      The sage is unkind, he treats the myriad things as straw dogs

      So what system are you going to be a part of? What system are you going to create? Better to die fighting for some other system? Have you noticed all systems throughout history become corrupt and decay? It is the nature of things.

      • sammas(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 6:42 pm

        “So what system are you going to be a part of? What system are you going to create? Better to die fighting for some other system? Have you noticed all systems throughout history become corrupt and decay? It is the nature of things.”

        i have read voltaire, so i understand that “this is the best of all possible worlds.” i do appreciate the reminder though, dr. pangloss.

        “systems” here is a convenient way to remove the actions of individuals from liability, much like “evil corporations”. nothing could be further from the truth; each individual is responsible for their own actions.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 7:05 pm

          “i have read voltaire, so i understand that “this is the best of all possible worlds.” i do appreciate the reminder though, dr. pangloss.”

          I hold my paid representatives fully accountable for their decisions and actions just as they do me. They run deficit spending while jobs are disappearing due in large part, to their lack of foresight and fiscal discipline. So they always choose the easy solution, this time, same as last time, the solution is to raise taxes. My life’s wish is that those in my midst should wake up and question this practice, it’s bankrupting the country.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      May 21, 2009 at 10:48 am
  41. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 4:15 pm

    This breakdown today in SPX and XLF is too easy. I’m going to guess there will be a “difficulty” coming later today or tomorrow. If it goes down hard at the close, I will take profits in the stuff I shorted today.

  42. bobj(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 4:21 pm
    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 4:53 pm

      Unless rebate for providing liquidity on Canadian side works drastically differently from US, this doesn’t make much sense to me.

      See, rebate is being paid only for providing liquidity, which means passively bidding or offering, as opposite to hitting someone else’s bids and offers – that would be removing liquidity and leads to additional fees. In practice, it means that in order to get rebate in author’s example, market participant bids 3.45, offers 3.45 and waits for someone to take him on both sides of the trade. That someone is not motivated by rebates since he will be removing liquidity. Thus, volume is created by quite real buying and selling since passive bidding/offering does not create volume, only actual prints do. So, someone who wanted to buy got liquidity provided to him by “rebate hunter’s” offer; someone who wanted to sell got liquidity provided to him by “rebate hunter’s” bid. “rebate hunter” took his risk and got rewarded if he was right and lost money if wrong. Spread got tightened for real traders/investors saving them money. I would say, public interest is served.

  43. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 4:23 pm

    never posted about the USD three times in one day, but look at it: 81.12
    and little to no word on why.

    a sudden plunge as money pours into stocks?

    a harbinger of a USD index below .80 by the weekend? id normally say thats crazy but with such a large dump today i wonder what is going to happen overnight as the other half of the world awake to a crapped dollar and higher gold…

    a fierce take down in gold just to keep the bugs on their toes, or an all out rush for the exits above $960, bringing us to $1000 sooner than many think?

    shares are finally showing moxy here. and never one to be happy w/ the miners, ill add that we need some follow through for a few sessions to really say we have broken out, a day or two of price jumps a trend does not make.

    good luck…

    • cuvo(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 5:37 pm

      Waiting now for FOMC as an excuse to first whipsaw and then propel USD and markets… Which way? 🙂

  44. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 4:32 pm
  45. ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 4:39 pm

    Maybe it’s just me, but in the last 10 days or so I’ve sensed a different tone from Bill’s comments regarding the financial markets and the Obama administration.

    It appears to me that the words being expressed regarding these subjects is one of caution, to which I agree. Unless the general populace demands a different route, we are heading down a dangerous path. One where the president of the U.S. dramatically raises taxes, and then dictates who stays in business and who goes, and what employees will be compensated.

    This is not how our system is supposed to operate. From the Gettysburg Address: “… that government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the earth.” It isn’t happening in the current scheme of things.

    Everyone needs to take the time to Google the names and contact numbers of their state and federal representatives, and call or fax them your opinion on these matters. They are supposed to represent YOUR interests and needs, not those of big business or selected monied organizations.

    If you stay silent, these decisions will be made for you, and you’ll have little recourse in time to come. The time for action is at hand.

    Just one person’s opinion, as always.

    • danielj(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 5:00 pm

      I agree, however, having done and continuing to do the calling and faxing to
      our representatives and media, is not gaining any traction. Responses have
      been laughable and for the most part, completely off topic. So what do we do
      now? Take to the streets? I’m getting a little long in the tooth for that kind of activity.

      • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 5:38 pm

        danielj

        Persistence and perseverance. Never, EVER give up.

        This is a battle for the freedom of our children, and grandchildren, and so forth. It’s a battle for the very ideals and concepts of our government, and the way we conduct business.

        If you’ve already phoned & faxed your representatives, then it’s now time to do so again. I called Rep. Vern Buchanan’s office from the 13th District of Florida multiple times during the voting of the bailout packages last Fall. And he’s going to hear from me again and again.

        Either these elected people represent the best interests of their constituency, or they go back home and we replace them with someone new.

        The time for action is nigh.

      • sammas(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 6:25 pm

        “So what do we do now? Take to the streets? I’m getting a little long in the tooth for that kind of activity.”

        the streets are the last resort as both sides know. since we already know that voting with our ballots does no good, we can instead VOTE OUR DOLLARS:

        financial markets corrupt? – vote your dollars out
        grocery store selling questionable commercial farm produce? – vote your dollars out
        state raising taxes to absurd levels? – vote your dollars out
        401k plan has your money trapped within absurd rules? – vote your dollars out
        cable company forces you to take 00s of channels you do not want? – vote your dollars out
        car dealerships selling junk cars for $30K per? – vote your dollars out

        VOTE YOUR DOLLARS IN where you are not being robbed

        • joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 7:52 pm

          “VOTE YOUR DOLLARS IN where you are not being robbed”

          And where would that be? You are forced into a 401k. How much say do you have over taxes? Can’t believe CA was asking for higher taxes after already being the most taxed state ! People don’t have options. Where to put money – either buy a farm and guns or put money into foreign stock markets and move there eventually !

          • sammas(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 9:21 pm

            “And where would that be? You are forced into a 401k. How much say do you have over taxes? Can’t believe CA was asking for higher taxes after already being the most taxed state ! People don’t have options. Where to put money – either buy a farm and guns or put money into foreign stock markets and move there eventually !”

            “Being a card carrying member of DENSA, I haven’t yet figured out where?to vote my dollars in. Sure, I’ve got some PMs for insurance, and for the ?most part lucky to have no debt other than a mortgage, but question still?remains as to where to invest the rest. Currently in PMs, physical and?miners, some ag, some oil. Unfortunately, a large chunk of savings is in IRAs of various types and I ?cannot get my head around Kaimu’s liquidation as I would take a huge tax?hit (close to 50% between state and fed).”

            i apologize for not having easier solutions, but this is not exactly a paper-cut that we are all dealing with here. the choices required to push back against decades of poor action are difficult. in my view, the consequences of not doing so are unacceptable.

            it does seem as though the primary issue is where to invest.

            if you are DEflationary, then physical cash seems perfectly reasonable. if you are INflationary, especially hyper-inflationary, then you can provide fairly sound insurance with some simple out-of-the-money calls that would be very inexpensive. if you are currency collapse, then you can hold physical PMs. obviously, one could engage in all three as well. all told, your sum total in the “financial markets” = negligible.

            the only reason that anyone ‘needs’ to invest is because of inflation. were it not for inflation, then anyone could simply save a portion of their income.

            real quick: do not know of any ‘forced’ 401ks and one can always set the contributions to ZERO; Roth contributions can be withdrawn tax-free. please check with your accountant, of course; they do not have anything to do now anyway 😉 also, excepting the 10% penalty tax on traditional 401k/IRA, the tax hit you mention will likely be the same when you withdrawal in “retirement” age, unless, of course BARRY and Co. decide to raise the tax rate on that stuff….nah. you could also hold it in the event that you lost your job, in which case, the tax scenario changes significantly due to lower marginal tax rate with less income.

        • danielj(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 7:58 pm

          Sammas,

          Being a card carrying member of DENSA, I haven’t yet figured out where
          to vote my dollars in. Sure, I’ve got some PMs for insurance, and for the
          most part lucky to have no debt other than a mortgage, but question still
          remains as to where to invest the rest. Currently in PMs, physical and
          miners, some ag, some oil.

          Unfortunately, a large chunk of savings is in IRAs of various types and I
          cannot get my head around Kaimu’s liquidation as I would take a huge tax
          hit (close to 50% between state and fed).

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 8:02 pm

        danielj,

        My experience with legislators exactly, but continue to talk to people about what you see and what you’ve written to congress. I was early and got no where, but many more people are showing dissatisfaction with government all the time.

    • sammas(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 5:34 pm

      ‘Everyone needs to take the time to Google the names and contact numbers of their state and federal representatives, and call or fax them your opinion on these matters. They are supposed to represent YOUR interests and needs, not those of big business or selected monied organizations. If you stay silent, these decisions will be made for you, and you’ll have little recourse in time to come. The time for action is at hand.”

      i understand where you are going here but, while i applaud the call to action in your suggestion and think that writing/calling cannot do any harm, i think you make a common mistake amongst good people: you expect others to behave according to YOUR values/morals/rules. those who are willing to perform the sort of acts that we see being played out before us will not play by your rules because they explicitly DO NOT believe in them. those individuals ARE acting in accord with their beliefs and are robbing us with every breath.

      it is a lethal mistake–KNOW YOUR ENEMY

      • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 5:43 pm

        Sammas

        Fair enough.

        What course of action do you suggest to exact a change in direction ?

        Thanks in advance.

        • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 5:59 pm

          We have been trying to get our Mayor Mufi to rebuild Diamond Head tennis courts for two year now at a cost of about $1.5 million. These courts have not been rebuilt in over 26 years and are dilapidated with cracks up to four inches deep. Our director of Parks, Les Chang wants to repair 4 of the 10 courts for an outlay of $78,000 and thinks this fix will last 10-15 years (fantasy). Our city council just voted to allow Mufi to go watch a football game in Nevada and promote tourism to Oahu, cost $100,000. What a joke!

          Our city budget is $1.7 billion of which 61% is devoted to Mufi’s train (elevated rail). We have a budget shortfall of about $248 Million (?) and all that happens around here is that they are continuing to raise our taxes on everything while our basic infrastructure crumbles.

          Except for two councilmember’s trying to do good they keep getting voted down by the machine. Welcome to Hawaii politics.

          Sorry for ranting.

          • yvrapx(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 6:05 pm

            No apology needed Telestar3d this will certainly get kaimu stirred up though. I love Hawaii and have been many, many times in the past 30 years but I have to say between it and California the taxes and fees are so onerous my family has chosen other locales. My Sister and Nephew are Maui locals and it appears to get some infrastructure upgrades (road to Hana, new highway from Kahalui to Kehei etc) but I suspect it was the flood of dough from mainlanders financing it. You are dead on with the lack of infrastructure in your fine State overall, has been the same since the ’80s. Too bad.

          • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 6:15 pm

            Telestar3d

            What is more useful to constituents ? Re-paving a spare runway at an airport at a cost of $800,000 that has 3 commercial daily flights, or fixing tennis courts at a cost of $1.5 million.

            Let’s see, $800,000 to fix the backup runway (something NOT used) versus $1.5 million for something used and enjoyed by many.

            John Murtha directed $200 million to this airport located in the middle of nowhere.

            Hmmmmm …..

            http://tinyurl.com/c34qyt

            @ 1:51 in this video, the gentleman running this airport literally laughs in your face when asked if the money being spent is justifiable. This is your bailout money at work. No purpose, just waste. Absolutely ridiculous !

            These are your tax dollars being pissed away by your elected leaders.

          • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 6:20 pm

            You are right. Why people are not in the streets protesting is beyond me, but we can attest that trying to get politicians to do anything other then what they want is like driving 100 mph into a wall.

            In Hawaii only 61% of the population votes and the Democrats control the union vote (the constituents)and thus the cycle continues.

        • Illini(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 7:15 pm

          I advocate voting for The National Initiate for Democracy at http://WWW.ni4d.us.

          The NI4D would make us lawmakers just as the voters in California and several other states. I for one am tired of pleading and begging my congressman to do the right thing. Mendicant democracy can be improved by creating a fourth branch of Gov and empowering ourselves.

          • sammas(118083 comments)-
            May 20, 2009 at 7:37 pm

            “I advocate voting for The National Initiate for Democracy at http://WWW.ni4d.us.”

            thanks Illini. lots to read…

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 7:42 pm

      ToddinFL,

      I’ve noticed the same. Bill is looking at it from a professional point of view and noting the causes of the big picture from the top down. I’m relating what I see in microcosm looking at it from the bottom on up.

      I wish (hope) the President will see Bill’s comments today. Perhaps the vision of such a stain on his legacy may cause him to readjust his staff, advisers and policies. To allow this to continue to build will not be a pretty sight.

  46. tango6(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 4:41 pm

    Seems to me that the United States is still a manufacturing giant, biggest producer of manufactured goods in the world. Assembly plants have been outsourced around the world and this, it seems to me, is a salubrious trend, not always but frequently, for both the US and the other countries. Share the wealth and all that. Also, you find foreign companies setting up assembly and manufacturing plants in the United States for a variety of very good reasons.

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 5:00 pm

      Not sure what compelled your post on manufacturing, but it piqued my curiosity of what manufacturing has looked like in the US lately. I thought I had read somewhere that manufacturing has been shedding jobs for something like 3 years straight or longer. Doing a quick search I found the attached chart.

      The chart definitely shows that less people are employed in manufacturing, but it shows huge growth in the manufacturing output value. While robotics help productivity a bit, I suspect the underlying cause of this huge divergence is that the bulk of the manufacturing is done offshore and final assembly is brought into the US to avoid tariffs, duties, IP loss, etc.

      Of course rolling the finished product off the line in the US makes it look like large value output exists in manufacturing, but it has little to do with home grown productivity.

      At any rate, I don’t think it’s a pretty picture…

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 7:49 pm
      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 8:38 pm

        Grym – “You are obviously not one of those who has lost his job. This “manufacturing giant” has been losing size and weight for nearly three decades. I’ve watched the closing of at least a dozen companies and their buildings are like giant brick carcasses.”

        That’s what happens when the public votes to send jobs out of country. The concept was sold as a good thing for America and Americans, believing their representatives, bought into it hook line and sinker. So while these jobs were moving OOC and tax revenues were falling, what was the answer from political elites? You guessed it, raise taxes…. Wage increase performance became negative as jobs were more difficult to obtain, except of course for governmental employment, where growth remains in many cases.

        If they must continue growing government, let them print money to accomplish the goal, I cannot support any concept of tax increase. Looks like a majority of Californians finally agree with me, it’s about time now that the state is BK!!!

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 10:31 pm

          CP,

          Right on the button. Even when Reagan was talking tax cuts my self employment tax went up more than enough to cancel any benefit.

  47. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 4:52 pm

    just found this out, no wonder.

    not sure if anyone posted this factoid already,
    im always somewhat nervous around these announcements,
    especially when gold has usually exploded upwards after showing weakness in the moments leading up to the minutes…

    it just seems to easy for gold to explode upward on any news out of the fed that hasnt been baked into the dollar’s downward plunge already… but mabey it will for that precise reason- it just seems so improbable…

    or will gold get cracked hard after an initial spike upwards… ugh.

    feel better sitting on last bits of cash to wait and see if this uptrend in gold can resume after whatever the FMOC says…

    good luck,

  48. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    For this afternoon, weather in SW CT is 80 degrees and mostly sunny.

    Still watching POG and gold stocks, but it will take a real push in the futures to juice the stocks at this point.

  49. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 5:16 pm

    Guys, speaking as a long term investor/daily chart watcher I don’t love the price action in UXG. The angle of the trend is too shallow for my liking. Also, the weekly chart doesn’t look all that convincing. Of course, $1200 gold WILL cause this stock to rise.

    (Of course, as you know I am not a long term investor but I do think of myself as a fairly adept chartist).

    • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 5:27 pm

      shark,

      UXG absorbed the news of stock issuance a few days back fairly well. The tight price action in the chart is a sign of accumulation, IMO. (There are buyers ready to take the new shares.)

      A break above $2.40 on heavy volume (should it happen) would signal a new move up out of the ascending wedge pattern. Quite a few stocks in the same industry are showing strength, as I’m sure you’re aware.

      Bill has said this next bull move in precious metal stocks may be one to sell into for those who bought at lower prices. I think that’s good advice for short term traders. Longer term (1-3 years), the price of precious metals stocks could likely outperform stocks or bonds, if even on a relative basis.

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 5:36 pm

        Hey there Todd,

        You’re probably right in the sense that a move up in gold will, undoubtedly move this stock as a move down would also. As for the quality of their operations, I concede total ignorance. I can’t tell one hole in the ground from another, I watch the stocks to try to gauge quality.

        It is rare that Bill and I differ but when it comes to selling into the next upmove in gold, well, selling at a profit is usually a good idea and all, but I think the next upmove in gold may be the abiding one, the one that sticks. With Obama making dollars faster than they make Dorito’s, with the Chinese rejecting the dollar for the reserve currency, and what with them stockpiling metals and other commodities, why shouldn’t gold, silver and palladium begin a big, sustained upmove versus the U.S. Peso? Why not?

        • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 5:52 pm

          Shark,

          Reasonable & logical thoughts, for sure. I’m of the opinion (and it’s just that – my opinion) that silver may make a larger move than gold due to its industrial use.

          The clear leader in this field as has been mentioned by Bill and others is SLW. There are quite a few small cap names now starting to move as well.

          take care

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 5:59 pm

          shark – why shouldn’t gold, silver and palladium begin a big, sustained upmove versus the U.S. Peso?

          During this recent rally, I believe we’ve had support from the big guys. The only interventions I have seen was perhaps 2-3 days ago which in retrospect looked like an attempt to momentarily slam gold prior to the move up, possibly to shake traders out.

          When the price gets too high for comfort, I believe the Fed will come back into the picture, and we will see those nasty vertical red lines painted all day across the gold chart, and $gold will lose $20-30 points a day, absent any dramatic event which is not yet on our radar.

  50. Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 5:18 pm

    Long SDS 57.55

    S&P small double top 930.17/924.60
    Advances 2520 to 1970 weakening
    Declines rising

    If SDS gets close to today’s low of 55.80, I’m out.

    Risk about 3%, time will tell.

  51. Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 5:46 pm

    So far its not working.

    advances 1970 to 2132
    declines rising

    if we take out 908.62 on SP, I will add, so far big if.

  52. newbee(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 5:46 pm

    Since I can’t short or sell options in ira accounts, I am seeking advice on how to play an upward movement in gold (not saying that I am expecting that or not).

    I see a lot of discussion about different mining stocks. How do you buy the commodity itself (not physical gold). I tried putting in $gold in my ameritrade search window and it didn’t find anything.

    I would appreciate any help on how to invest in an upturn in gold be it miners or any other way.

    thanks

    • ChrisM(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 7:36 pm

      newbee,
      you can trade gold’s price action with GLD, and silver with SLV, and double gold’s price movement (approx) with DGP. You will NOT own gold or silver with these. You can buy a claim on unallocated gold and silver with CEF, run by long time market analyst Ian McAvity, in Canada (trades on NYSE). Similar fund, but I think Gold only, is GTU which might be a timely buy as part of the premium was knocked out on a recent issue.

      • newbee(118083 comments)-
        May 21, 2009 at 2:17 am

        thank you for your reply and I am sure that I will make use of this info in the future.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        May 21, 2009 at 9:27 am

        RE:> Similar fund, but I think Gold only, is GTU which might be a timely buy as part of the premium was knocked out on a recent issue.

        on that note there ChrisM it should be pointed out that GTU is a slug. I don’t know if its volume, lack of analyst coverage but it trails woefully the miners. I’m not convinced that its a wound up coil ready to spring on higher gold prices either. I’ll be pleasantly suprised if a higher POG get it moving, but I’ll be looking to dump it as soon as I have green again, although I’ll be watching price/volume action as/if gold hits closer to 1000.

  53. timlovelee(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 5:52 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 6:44 pm

      I think the biggest issue I have with this is the convincing tone. I started buying at dow 10,800 and held on too long. I didn’t remove all my money from American banks because I knew the FDIC would prove effective if anything. What should I do, stuff it under my mattress? Unfortunately, I did buy BAC just a couple months later, stuffing some money into a paper bag for no good reason.

    • terryC(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 8:02 pm
    • terryC(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 8:38 pm
  54. David(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    I just covered at $0.30 June $30 GG puts that I sold 3 weeks ago at $3.60. The collateral cash I kept for these puts was about 8% of my account. Also, I just sold 4 contracts of July $40 calls for $1.50, which I purchased at $0.95 a month ago — a small trade for me, but I am happy to be out of a long options position. From now on, I will really try to restrain myself only to short option positions, which almost always make money for me (time decay is a very powerful friend to have on your side, and it is *really* hard to fight against it).

  55. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 6:05 pm

    i asked this before but didnt get any answer. Is there any way to bookmark Bill’s reports (WIR, Daily report, his opening comments in community chat)? TIA.

    • alberio(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 6:16 pm

      Shiva
      I’m not sure exactly what you mean by book mark but if you hit “Ctrl F”, you can then type in whoever you want then hit “next” which will scroll you thru that person’s entries for that day.

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 6:40 pm

        Alberio,
        I was wondering if we could use the “Bookmark comment” feature for this as well. I guess not. I keep going back to Bill’s Daily reports & weekly reports (specfic ones) & also his daily commentary in chat. Thx for ur response tho

        • DamirK(118083 comments)-
          May 21, 2009 at 2:58 am

          Hi Shiva,
          You can bookmark any comment in the blog including Bill Cara’s clicking “Bookmark this”. Same for the Bill’s opening comment of the chat. This will add it to your bookmarks in the Blog(check the menu Site Index/Bookmarks/My comment bookmarks).
          You also can bookmark comments using your browser instead. Click a title of the comment you like – the browser will add # and the comment’s number at the end of the URL. Now use your browser’s bookmark capabilities(Favorites or star icon for IE, Bookmarks for FireFox, etc.).
          Unfortunately you can not bookmark specific parts of the WIR or Daily report using browser(to make this possible the WIR’s template should be changed to support bookmarks inside the WIR) – only whole WIR or Daily report pages can be bookmarked.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            May 21, 2009 at 3:40 am

            Damirk, thanks.

  56. David(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 6:11 pm

    Just sold at $44.40 1/2 of SKF that I purchased last Thursday at $46.18. That was the largest single purchase of SKF I made since I started playing against this rally (about 5% of my portfolio, whereas all other SKF purchases were about 1.5% of my port), as I became a little too sure of myself (of my understanding that the market trend has turned down). I was immediately punished for making this larger than usual trade, as SKF fell to $41 on Monday and I was afraid to add to my position since I felt that I had too much SKF already. I don’t want to be in that situation again, and so the small loss I took today (0.1% of my port) will allow me to have much less fear when buying more SKF should it drop down again. That is, if I see SKF near $40, then I’ll buy back the same shares I sold today at $44.40.

    For the N-th time I am shown that my market trading only goes well when I have the flexibility to do something EITHER when the market moves up or down. If I take a position that is too large and to which I am afraid to add when the market moves in some direction, I invariably see the market move in that direction, and besides getting worried about a large loss I am also unable to take advantage of that extra move.

  57. sammas(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 7:03 pm

    brand-new on Denninger site:

    http://anti-federalist.org

  58. Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 7:22 pm

    SDS out small gain

  59. bobbyo(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 7:30 pm

    Been too busy to trade, but feel in the middle of the action. Like to hear about the trades and the reasoning behind them. Good stuff. Keep posting.
    Bob

    • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 8:45 pm

      Sold 2000 INTC, 1400 MSFT, 1400 GE, 200 BA, 1000 VZ, 700 TGP, 800 DUK 500 VALE and 400 IBKR today at around 7:00 a.m. this morning. Bought 2000 SLV and set a stop that I will watch very closely. Kept my GIX. I’m listening to Bill’s words from the wise posted the last several days. VOLUME STINKS and I do believe the recent run up has been HB&B using mom and pops accounts to prop up the market. I thought I would take some pressure off and watch for awhile.

  60. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 7:37 pm
  61. Seamus(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 8:01 pm
  62. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 8:02 pm

    Recent moves in the Yen bear watching. The technical damage of the recent lengthy pull back are almost all repaired on the weekly chart. Any further moves up against the dollar, and the interest rates on Japanese bonds are going to skyrocket.

    This will also affect the standing of the carry trades, who the “Japanese housewives” have been betting on. Its Goldman Sachs, if you ask me, but then what the heck do I have to base that it on?

  63. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 8:09 pm

    Covered my BAC short at market close. I’m assuming they’ll run it up tomorrow. A few other folks did this as well, from what I can tell.

  64. alberio(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 8:20 pm

    Take a look at the todays candle on the VIX.
    A higher VIX tomorrow would comfirm the bottom. IMHO.
    And if it closes higher than today by the end of the week would look just like one of those kangaroo tails on the weekly.
    Hope I get out of my gold trades before the implosion.

  65. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 8:27 pm

    Saw SLW draw a shooting star (almost a gravestone doji) today. Wrote some covered calls against my position.

    • OT(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 9:36 pm

      Dave, sorta with you on this. I sold covered calls on my SLW and EGO earlier. Sold cc on GG today. If this is the TOG, guess I will miss part of it, but I have been whipsawed too many times waiting for it. At least I will make a good return off the covered calls. My one regret is that I did not get into calls and puts earlier. Still holding a few things on which options are not available.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 9:44 pm

        OT …

        Based on GG’s close – near the high – I’m hanging on. Plus, price action in gold was stronger than price action in silver. They may be setting me up, who can say for sure, but the fact that GG broke out and closed quite near the high on above average volume tells me there may still be a continued upside here, so I’m going to wait until I see price action that’s less bullish before calling it a day.

        • OT(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 9:53 pm

          I don’t have the ability to do the fine tuning that many of you guys do, so I sold today. Sold Jan 45s for 3.10. 45 gives me a fair bit of running room before exercisable. If they are exercised at 45, that will basically be a price of 48 to me. Jan is longer than I normally sell, but if exercised, I’m ok as my basis is around 30. If it falls back significantly, I will repurchase.

    • alberio(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 11:30 pm

      Saw that and didn’t act.
      Unless there is follow thru up tomorrow, I’m out.
      Take a look at the weekly and daily charts, they look like a large rising wedge which is often bearish.
      Also looks like divergence on the daily RSI 7.
      Note that SPX also made a shooting star after failing to make a new high on relatively high volume. This is the second high volume distribution day over the last couple of weeks.

  66. Luggie(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 8:36 pm

    Hi All – Nice run up today on this hog I have held forever. Fairly impressive new intercepts addding to 9+ Moz of Au reserves due for initial production in 2nd Qtr. It’s a 50/50 deal with the Egyptian government w/ preferential capital return to operator Centamin. Kaimu – also listed ASX @ CNT. Happy Trading

  67. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 8:45 pm

    Today was the biggest volume in BAC that appears on the daily chart – over a billion shares traded in one day, which tops the trading day of April 13 2009. One wonders who was buying all those shares…

    • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 8:48 pm

      Why that was mom and pops managed accounts getting another shot in the rear more than likely.

  68. terryC(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 9:04 pm

    Given that the 2009 standard of fuel efficiency is 25 MPG, how on earth is the Obama team going to deliver on their expectation of a standard fuel efficiency of 35.5 MPG by 2016 by means of 5% annual increments in fuel efficiency starting in model year 2012?

    In the months and years to come we will see the spin doctors morph this expectation into a 35.5 MPG based on C.A.F.E., the industry anacronym for Corporate Average Fuel Economy.

    Say your company now produces vehicles with a CAFE of 25 MPG running gasolene. Say you develop a line of electric or non-gasolene driven vehicles and by 2016 you lose half you market in terms of vehicle sales but have half of your sales being electric ( zero MPG ) and half remaining gasoline ( 25 MPG ) you are a much smaller company – but you have attained the 35.5 average MPG number.

    This 35.5 MPG number won’t be met by propeller-heads figuring out how to equip new vehicles with a black box that makes this technologically feasable in this time frame. It will be done in Washington, not Detroit.

  69. found(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 9:33 pm

    Totally off topic… directed at Kaimu or any other people on this board who have been to Hawaii. I’m planning my Honeymoon there – any suggestions on hotels / resorts? thanks so much in advance..

    PS. love the action in gold this week – glad I loaded up last week….and my long lost HRG play actually has come back to life. Go figure.

    • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 10:23 pm

      I do not know your tastes, but here are my suggestions.

      Maui, goto Kapalua, my favorite place on earth. It use to have the Kapalua Bay Hotel but they tore it down in favor of timeshares courtesy of Steve Case.

      Lani, only two hotels and you can drive the whole island in about three hours. At the Manele Bay hotel there is a beach where a pod of dolphins come in and swim almost everyday. Sometimes they will swim among people, but only if it is their idea, if you swim towards them they will disappear.

      Oahu, Turtle Bay, if you like country or Kahala if you want to be just outside Honolulu.

      Big Island, Maunea Kea Hotel or any along that coast.

      I have stayed at all these hotel’s and all are five stars. I would check the net and see which ones appeal to your taste’s. Congratulations!

      • found(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 10:28 pm

        TELESTAR3D – Thanks so much for the congrats and information! helps plenty. Was leaning towards Turtle Bay, heard great things…and the more people I ask…the more suggest it.

        • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
          May 20, 2009 at 11:26 pm

          Turtle Bay, if this is your choice look at the bungalows. There are about
          10-20 of them and they are like studios right on the bay as is the hotel. There is a small road to the area by the bungalows that not too many people know about that parks about 10 cars and you are lucky in you see three cars parked there. We have stayed there a few times as the tennis courts are about two minutes walking distance and I was playing tournaments. You will be happy with this choice and have fond memories all your life. Aloha.

  70. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 9:51 pm

    ALOHA !!

    On May 19th the US TREASURY was spending(outlays) 5.2 times revenues(receipts). Recall I mentioned in the height of the GREAT DEPRESSION when FDR was spending madly on job works programs he was only spending at a rate of 2.4 times receipts.

    Since someone here mentioned a German concentration camp that brought my focus to WW2 when the entire world was at war against the Germans and Japanese. Some 61 million people died during that six year WAR(1939 to 1945), yet even with all that stuff like D-DAY and the constant battles waged globally every day FDR was only spending 2.05 time receipts in 1945, even less than the GREAT DEPRESSION era, however the size of the Budget expanded 10 fold to $93BIL USD. The difference was that every US citizen was committing his present and future capital to freedom and the elimination of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in an effort to win WW2. Who was the powerhouse behind winning WW2? GM … GENERAL MOTORS! Now look where all our capital goes … to enormous WELFARE DEBT in order to support insolvent banks and politically corrupt unions. WELFARE = DEBT not WEALTH! This is EMPIRE sized DEBT!

    If we were forced to fight a WW2 today we could not. We have exported all the manufacturing required to win such a global conflict. We could nuke the World to death though, but forget a ground war!

    OBAMA has spent $7.612TRIL USD so far in FY 2009. What’s a $3.6TRIL Budget going to SPEND like if 2009 was a $1.2TRIL? Who needs a crystal ball when you have the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT?

    I stand by my past statements … this is the US EMPIRE unwinding and the road to monetary collapse.

    5.2 times receipts is not the bottom of US TREASURY spending. I have been seeing over 6%. This is not sustainable and nor does this resemble anything close to fiscal responsibility. As a World Reserve Currency the US Dollar has put in a dismal performance.

    GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY!

  71. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 10:12 pm

    ALOHA !!

    sammas posted … “IRAs of various types and I ?cannot get my head around Kaimu’s liquidation as I would take a huge tax?hit (close to 50% between state and fed).”

    That will be known as DEBT ATTRITION … People are already being forced out at the bottom of the market and then getting reamed by the IRS as they get kicked out the door! When it comes to a house and food, retirement will have to wait.

    On the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT that is on TableII under line item “Individual Income And Employment Taxes, Not Withheld”. On May 19th $327MIL USD worth were cashed in. Total for FY2009 is $249.1BIL USD. The DEBT ATTRITION line item … Hummmm????

    • sammas(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 11:02 pm

      Kaimu,

      what do you make of the daily statements lines:Public Debt Cash Issues & Public Debt Cash Redemptions, where the issues are on the deposit side of the Treasury balance sheet in the Fed account and the redemptions in the withdrawal? in other words, how would you state what these lines are for in the simplest terms?

      btw, the referenced comment was me quoting someone else 🙂

  72. sammas(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 10:15 pm

    not even sure how to characterize this…

    http://dealbreaker.com/2009/05/jeff-mackes-new-app

  73. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 10:21 pm

    Bill said today: “As opined, losses in the $USD are needed to hold US equity prices at these levels or push them higher”

    If I understand him correctly, he is suggesting that the USD is being sold – and has been for a while, presumably by the Fed – in order to tank the buck, which supports equities, and just happens to raise commodity prices along with it, more or less as a side effect.

    Presumably this won’t go on forever. Perhaps it will only last until all the banks have fed at the trough. Perhaps our friends who sell things in euros will eventually object, too.

    So when this selling of dollars stops, and it must, the forces underpinning the market rally will be removed, and the market will tip over for real – not just one or two percent, but a nice dramatic move down. This seems like a reasonably likely occurrence, if a consistently weaker buck is all that’s holding us up now.

    In the meantime, we have a commodities (and gold) rally on our hands. “Dance while the music is playing” but don’t get caught without a chair. 🙂

    I have a question. Will gold and commodities drop too if the dollar is no longer being sold? Seems like they would. Sounds like everything gets pressured, not just the financials. Perhaps treasuries go up again?

    AHA. Perhaps this is why there is no intervention! The Fed understands the gold rally stops as soon as they turn off the spigot!

    interesting this happens to coincide more or less in time with the Martin Armstrong business cycle stuff.

    My closing thought for the day.

    • joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
      May 20, 2009 at 10:30 pm

      “he is suggesting that the USD is being sold”
      So what’s a good play here? Going long the USD? What would be a good investment vehicle for this?

      “interesting this happens to coincide more or less in time with the Martin Armstrong business cycle stuff.”
      Wonder what others make of this theory. My mind finds it hard to grasp that there can be an economic theory that spans centuries. After all, we cannot have too much backtest data to verify this in any case!

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        May 20, 2009 at 11:35 pm

        “So what’s a good play here? Going long the USD?”

        Joe, as Vadym choruses repeatedly, “what’s your time-frame?”. Barring some US financial meltdown, US$ index is likely to find some strong support in the 77.50-80.00 range, but it may, or may not, be only temporary strength. If found, what after that? What’s the upside? Rather than trying to play your currency (if indeed you are an American), why not try to play themes based on its weakening (or strengthening) Global purchasing power? Investigate correlations with US$. Of course you’ll find gold, but what of other, dare I say it, less selfish capital allocations?

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      May 21, 2009 at 9:51 am

      RE:>AHA. Perhaps this is why there is no intervention! The Fed understands the gold rally stops as soon as they turn off the spigot!

      logical thinking Dave. Put activity in GLD is concentrated at the 88-90 range. The equivalent call activity is spread more thinly at 92-96 and 99-102. I’ll have a guess and suggest that GLD finishes Jun in the 88-90 range, if not lower. That’s my angle following the money.

  74. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 10:49 pm

    What an amazing learning experience this last 18-23 months has been! Is there ANY corner of the Capital Markets (i.e. equities, debt, credit, currencies, etc) that hasn’t been spun around 360 degrees, revealing all the working interconnections, risks, and reward potential? Oh, to live in interesting times! I hope the current crop of studying MBA’s have been paying attention and weren’t cloistered away reading dusty tomes and debating boring case-studies, because if they were, I fear they’ve missed out on an opportunity rarely seen by a generation. And could we have been any luckier than to have been able to share our experiences of it here at this forum? I bet these pages have raised-up some monster-smart future traders of risk, whatever their time-frames and goals might be.

    On a lighter note, here’s the currency page I check daily:

    http://tinyurl.com/qz7ade

    While it clearly shows an accelerating weakening of US$ since mid-march, and is obviously the source of a lot of angst that is being reflected in the discourse recently, I think (hope?), rather than being a sign of the world’s revulsion to the US$, it is just another leg in a nascent global financial recovery that PRICE SERIES have been flashing since Nov ’08. Gobs of wealth parked in $US – through fear – faced the prospect of little or no return. The world didn’t end. Rail at the corruption or injustice of the system all we want, I think that money has been busy as a beaver since then: correcting, first, debt prices, then certain promising equity markets (i.e. BRIC), then commodity prices, and now currencies are on the mend as fear recedes. I sure hope all you US$ holders took the opportunity to diversify globally back in late ’08. And the kicker to all this, if I understand it properly, is that once the world, ex-US, starts to feel a little wealthier, they’ll be banging down the door for US (and Japanese?) equities which have been the global dog’s breakfast YTD.

    Anyway, DYODD, I’m just trying to keep my head above water and learn, learn, learn. I really just throw out these ideas here like a kind of rough draft for a term paper so that the really sharp crayons around here can raspberry me 😛

    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      May 21, 2009 at 2:10 am

      “I sure hope all you US$ holders took the opportunity to diversify globally back in late ’08”

      Hi Mackinaw,

      I diversified globally in August-September 2008 (a little early). Getting killed now since these global equities still way down over 50%, I am getting killed also (double whammy) on the currency exchange. (Transfered out of US dollars in September 2008 and since then the dollar has strengthened.

      Don’t wish you did what I did.

      very thankful for finding this blog. Have learned so much and making less mistakes today.

      vb

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 21, 2009 at 2:17 am

      Mackinaw – “Is there ANY corner of the Capital Markets (i.e. equities, debt, credit, currencies, etc) that hasn’t been spun around 360 degrees, revealing all the working interconnections, risks, and reward potential?”

      I think not! At least if there were an area left untouched, it has escaped me. All too much for this chicken to take in so quickly, I’m counting on osmosis. 😉

  75. OT(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 11:05 pm
  76. Bev(118083 comments)-
    May 20, 2009 at 11:41 pm
    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      May 21, 2009 at 12:02 am

      Wow, Bev. That’s a pretty dramatic looking chart, and also possibly the most narrow view of a series I’ve ever seen. Seems to me that about a week ago you gave us an equally myopic view of $VIX and yet it still continues to plummet. Stepping back to the following time-frame gives some frame of reference but doesn’t even do it enough justice. I’m just curious, what is your trading time frame? seconds? Is this the kind of micromanagement one needs to do to be a succesful options trader?

      http://tinyurl.com/qp9vgd

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 21, 2009 at 12:09 am

        Mac- The sell signal did not materialize last week (two out of three ain’t bad for most things, but not when pitching, and not for Berk’s sell signal).

        • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
          May 21, 2009 at 12:16 am

          I’m unfamiliar with Berk’s Bollinger Band Sell Signal. What’s the idea? Is it relevant in screwed-up, extreme markets like we’ve experienced recently or is it basically a buy low, sell high type gizmo that works in normal markets?

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            May 21, 2009 at 12:29 am

            Mac- I’m just going to replay Bev’s original post (made 5/16/09):

            [Everyone seems to be expecting one even “The Cara Trading Advisors” group. Here is a little something I picked up from some very good traders and saw it reposted today. Using the $VIX as signal. It is referred to as the…

            Berk’s BB sell signal.

            For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 things:

            1. a close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20 day, SMA)
            2. a close back inside the 2.0 Bollinger Band – this issues the signal
            3. a higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 Bollinger Band – this confirms the signal.]

          • Blowout Preventer(118083 comments)-
            May 21, 2009 at 1:23 am

            I don’t think it’s myopic to enlarge a particular indicator for the benefit of teaching the signal to all. Thank you for the original post, and I look forward to watching the $VIX tomorrow and potentially placing another took in my kit.

  77. vinod(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 1:33 am

    Low for $usd is around 72. Are we going to reach that? If $USD keep going down from 82 than this short $USD long commodity cycle will take oil/metal to much higher ground. So, when they move high enough will be on lookout for short ETF (OIL/Metal) to play

  78. Blowout Preventer(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 1:57 am

    http://dailybail.com/home/there-are-no-words-to-de

    *Disclosure I’m an attorney. Cross examination is the crucible for truth. This is the best example of Cross X I’ve seen in a while, especially for Congress. The distinguished gentleman from Florida is a former prosecutor and he makes a fool of the Fed’s Inspector General

  79. vinod(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 2:41 am

    2nd
    EEV and EEM both are down 46% from May 21 2008 to May 20, 2009
    Look like going long on EEV will be a play.what’s your take

    • mSquare(118083 comments)-
      May 21, 2009 at 3:13 am

      I went long EDZ which is a triple Bear of EEM. Hoping that Asia sells off some after digesting the FOMC meeting released earlier today.

      Chart: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=EDZ&ta=0&p=d

      As with other 3X funds, I do not plan to hold it for more than a day or two and be out before the trend reverses.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 21, 2009 at 10:59 am

      Vinod- I think we go down. Good luck.

  80. Blowout Preventer(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 2:52 am

    GE foreclosing on South Carolina Golf Clubs …

    The honchos are not spending like before. What result for the average Joe?

    http://thesunnews.typepad.com/greenreading/2009/05

  81. MicroTehnicus(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 3:54 am

    http://tinyurl.com/munger-interview-sls

    >>>
    If you’re used to growing 3 to 4 percent per year and you go to no growth at all for 10 years, which is roughly what happened in Japan, then, as human tragedies go, that’s not major. That’s not the rise of Hitler. It’s painful, but it’s quite endurable.
    <<<

    No comment on inflation though. Could it be extrapolated that he expects none, or not a significant factor? Stagnation without inflation?

    MT

  82. Ventilation Blues(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 5:55 am

    Bill said: “This final action over the next couple weeks is probably a good time to sell into strength as prices come to you.”
    Thanks, I took action yesterday. I may have sold early and theres still life left in this but I have had WGW since 2007 and finally sold the whole lot at 2.2. A huge releif. SU still making significant gains but again I am looking at what Bill says here, sell into strength and get ready with Cash for the next big drop. This is now the first time in my trading history I have no loss and am poised for investing. Possible future choices are GG, PBR, TCK, DRYS, MVL, KGC.

  83. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 10:19 am

    RE:>HONG KONG (AP) — Global stock markets fell Thursday after the U.S. central bank predicted an even deeper recession in the world’s largest economy.

    May 21 (Bloomberg) — Stocks fell around the world for the first time in four days as investors speculated the highest valuations for equities in three years would decline after the Federal Reserve cut its forecast for the U.S. economy and former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said banks are still in peril.

    That looks like a trigger for a sell-off to me. Banks have finished feeding at the trough this time round, have they?

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      May 21, 2009 at 11:06 am

      I’m shocked, simply shocked this prediction emerged immediately AFTER Bank of America sucked up their $10 billion from our pension funds yesterday. Is this a green shoot? I think maybe not.

      Herbert Hoover was widely mocked for his phrase “prosperity is just around the corner.” I suspect the same thing will happen to Ben Bernanke and his “green shoots” once this baby tips over, as I think it will.

      Why we (the country) give Bernanke any credibility at all, after his string of poor predictions, is beyond me. And, why the President is even considering giving such a poor prognosticator regulatory control is even more astonishing.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        May 21, 2009 at 11:28 am

        They’re not very discrete, are they? One week its this, next week its that. Credibility indeed.

        I’d love to be in on the discussions happening in pension fund management offices this morning.

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          May 21, 2009 at 12:03 pm

          It’s clear to me that they’re saying whatever it takes to get what they want done. I mean, I think they are not bad people, just scared and very intent on restoring the status quo ante. But there’s no reassembling the broken crockery on this one.

  84. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 10:47 am
  85. tango6(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 11:53 am

    Come into my parlour, said the spider (Washington Post) to the fly (Mom & Pop) ….

    “The financial system, frozen solid for the past nine months, is in a spring thaw. And it’s happening even though many of the Obama administration’s major rescue programs have yet to get off the ground.

    “The improvement reflects the combined impact of a wide range of actions, many of them taken with little public attention, according to government officials and private economists. But more important than any single program, the sources say, is a deepening confidence from financial markets that the government is prepared to take aggressive action — a confidence that Obama officials have repeatedly worked to cultivate in speeches and public appearances.”

  86. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 11:59 am

    Good morning.

    JNPR – Upgraded to Overweight @ Barclays

    SLW – Downgraded to Sector Perform @ RBC

  87. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 12:17 pm
  88. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 12:21 pm
  89. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 1:08 pm

  90. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 1:09 pm

    Stealth accumulation pre-market. Small positions. That’s what I like about pre-market- uncertainty/tentative positioning. Sometimes you can hit nice bids.

  91. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 1:10 pm

    My FAZ sold@5.48 while I was away yesterday, made some on that. I guessed the down day right and should have held my TZA (loss here), but the mkt (aka casino) looked too strong at the open. Alas, todays another day.

  92. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 21, 2009 at 6:53 pm

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