Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., Apr. 15, 2009

[7:58am ET] If the White House believed that what the capital markets needed to recover was a full-out public relations exercise from Obama, Bernanke and Summers, as we saw yesterday afternoon, they were mistaken. After these leaders addressed the nation, the US equity market dropped over -1%.

On a day that started badly, and then got worse, not even extensive TV coverage of the A-Team was able to turn things around. Do you recall the Bush years after I started blogging five years ago when markets almost always got pumped when the President spoke. I used to say that it must be his network of Rangers hitting the Buy button because there was an amazing correlation between TV appearances and higher prices. Not so today.

On another front, I see that the Fiat CEO is demanding concessions from Chrysler

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248 Comments

  1. Freedom57(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:11 pm

    Two other successful companies that were Crown Corporations in the Province of Saskatchewan are Potash Corp. and Cameco. Government ownership was controversial at the time, but eventually they were returned to the private sector to become world leaders.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 12:33 pm

      POT and CCJ are also Cara 100 companies. I hadn’t thought about that. Thanks.

  2. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:31 pm

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 2:52 pm

      Cleared the table, including the 10% purchased at 7.75 yesterday. Not liking the action right now. May re-enter later in the day.

      • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 2:56 pm

        out as well at 7.74
        picked up fxp at 19.65

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 2:58 pm

        ditto, but scalped the FAZ side.

        This is pathetic.

  3. Craig(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:35 pm

    Last night’s post Kaimu hits the jackpot!

    We have Survivor (where ever it is this month)….why not “Survivor Wall Street”?

    Forget the Donald and Celebrity Apprentice, get the bankers on and give em’ some bulk rice, some string and a hook, maybe a a tarp and turn them loose with cameras and the people of NY City. I bet the entire nation would be riveted….

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 12:53 pm

      “Survivor Wall Street”?

      Forget the Donald and Celebrity Apprentice, get the bankers on and give em’ some bulk rice, some string and a hook, maybe a a tarp and turn them loose with cameras and the people of NY City. I bet the entire nation would be riveted….”

      Craig- The island that comes to mind is Riker’s. I would be riveted.

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 1:01 pm

        Oh Man..2nd, you have the perfect Island right there in SF Bay….just outside of it actually…. Survivor Alcatraz….Oh that has that magic ring to it doesn’t it?

        We have McNeil Island, the old Fed pen (the last of the old island pens still operating) just a few miles by water from here, but Alcatraz? I’m not from east of the Mississippi so Rikers doesn’t have that ominous feel to me like Alcatraz.

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 1:03 pm

          Craig- Alcatraz is closed. If you want real drama, you need a prison with real inmates.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 1:13 pm

            Yeah I know, now it’s a tourist destination….
            I don’t know though, that’s seems too easy.

            I understand the concept, but just showing them in prison would be too quick.

            To make some $$$ you’re going to need week 2 and so on….LOL!
            So you have to drag this out (kinda like they are on the econ/markets) or inmates are going to cancel your season if you know what I mean….
            You don’t want your cast uh, ‘voted’ off the planet before week 2.

            So I envision it more like banker meets bridge abutment/cardboard box/dumpster/multi-layers of old suits/shopping cart…..there you go Mr. bankster, let’s see how you do with the real people….and the environment you made.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 1:19 pm
          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 1:22 pm

            I had to serve on a jury with the same result. Makes me sick to my stomach when I think about it…weirds me out every time.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 1:39 pm

            I spoke with the Assistant States Attorney to be sure he was getting life (our TV news didn’t say).

            She said he had also molested at least two more children they now of, but three convictions was the magic number for a life sentence with NO parole.

            No parole is what I wanted to hear. A guy who attacked the wife of a friend over 40 years ago keeps coming up for parole and they have fought it every time. This is my only reason for still backing the death penalty.

            Some people should NEVER be released into the general populace ever again.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 1:45 pm

            “If what I have heard is true..”

            Grym- Of course it’s true.

            Anything that happens on the outside happens on the inside times ten. Inmates with anger management and self-control problems (which leads to most crime, and also probably how/why most get caught)- put them shoulder to shoulder in a place where authority figures (another problem for them) tell them what to do- it’s not a difficult scenario to imagine.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 2:56 pm

            If you could have seen the smirk on his face you’d know why I want him to worry big time.

          • kaimu(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 9:15 pm

            ALOHA !!

            Grym … I built the California prisons back in the 1980s when California still had money! They segregate rapists and child molesters from the general population(at least in California)for their “protection”. So not only do we have to pay extra to have segregated housing units set up special for rapists and child molesters but they live long and happy lives with “their own kind”! These guys would not last five seconds in the general population … THEY HAVE RIGHTS! That was the theme for many a DIRTY HARRY, Clint Eastwood movie …

            Its been a long time for me so I am out of touch with “special privileges”, but I would not be surprised to hear these molesters get internet time!

            I have had the unfortunate experience of meeting a number of “baby rapists”. Whenever they complained that their TV was not working our company would get the call to come out and fix it(since we installed it and it was still under warranty)! YIKES … pond scum of the pond scum! Yet they fit no preconceived idea of what you would envision a baby rapist would look like! They’re a cross between Grandpa Walton and Mr. Rogers …

            You need a “sulfuric acid” shower to disinfect … That’s messed up!

          • number2son(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 1:43 pm

            How ’bout the Big Q?

  4. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:39 pm

    Good morning.

    SYT – Upgraded to Buy @ UBS

    Downgrades:

    INTC – to Market Perform @ BMO
    SBUX – to Sell @ Deutsche. Price Target = $7

    New:

    LLTC – Citigroup Initiates Coverage with a Hold. Price Target = $25

    Price Targets Raised:

    EXC – from $44 to $47 @ Jefferies & Co. Hold
    INTC – from $17 to $18 @ Wedbush Morgan. Buy

    Price Target Lowered:

    LLTC – from $19 to $17 @ FBR. Underperform

  5. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    Looks like after a few days of rest, the Fed is back in the gold markets.

  6. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:53 pm

    http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2009/04/14/rich-havent

    How many of us believe that 1% of Americans should get 34% of the American pie?

    • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:15 pm

      Should this question even be asked? Yes! America only serves pie to those who can buy the whole pie and the rest can eat cake, I guess.

    • Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:23 pm

      Then we have this story:

      http://tinyurl.com/dltnt2

      Cost of living increases for Social Security recipients are expected to be suspended for the next three years.

      This is outrageous. The US Government has no qualms about using taxpayer dollars to bail out the financially negligent but has no money for seniors living on a fixed income?

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 1:24 pm

        Can you imagine what it will be like when inflation hits at the end of those two or three years?

        • Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 1:41 pm

          Craig, et al.,

          This story really hits home for me. I personally know quite a few Seniors who are living in poverty due to rising health care costs. They played by the rules throughout their lives and now they can no longer work and many are forced to choose between food or medicine. This really rankles my posterior.

          • Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 2:57 pm

            @Bull Hunter –

            They played by the rules throughout their lives

            Ahhh, and there we see the problem. Play by the rules and get your posterior handed to you. Bend, break, change or flaunt the rules and you get everything you desire.
            It should fill people’s mouth with ash when they see that 1% owns 34% statistic, and the subsequent note that their wealth increased $1 TRILLION per year from 2004 to 2007.
            Wonder how that happened.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 2:59 pm

            My 75-year old cousin emailed me yesterday saying she just got an insurance premium increase and also a big jump in an RX price. In addition many drugs go off the prescription list and at higher over the counter prices get no insurance coverage anymore.

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 3:01 pm

            Insurance companies gotta recover their profits somehow…

            Unfortunately it’s gonna be on the back of us.

            Will be interested to see justifications for insurance premium rises in a deflationary environment in 2010 in our corner of the world.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 7:11 pm

            “Will be interested to see justifications for insurance premium rises in a deflationary environment in 2010 in our corner of the world.”

            Where are you, Les?

            I’m expecting the deflation to last here for at least until people are no longer afraid of losing their jobs (except for things like insurance and medical costs).

            Many things we can avoid or put off, but when people can’t afford medicine, food or get put out of their homes it could get really dicey. It will probably begin to show in local crime statistics before long. We are at 14% unemployment officially here.

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 7:20 pm

            I’m living in Switzerland.

            We pay about 700 CHF per month for health insurance. And the insurance company wouldn’t kick in until we’ve paid the first 6500 CHF, if we were caught in a car accident for example.

            I think we’ve had insurance increases amounting to 30-40% in the last ten years.

            Yes it is sad to say that many people will die needlessly in this crisis putting off expensive medical treatment. Money’s got to be put into its perspective.

            I’m finally going to spend my share on medical treatment this year. I’m about due a ten year maintenance schedule.

          • Johnny(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 7:30 pm

            Les, is that private insurance or national health care?

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 7:43 pm

            private insurance.

            A popular referendum was called last year to vote on creating one federally mandated insurance company to oversee the entire population. It was unfortunately rejected.

            A doctor advising one insurance company told me that the various companies amass more reserves against liabilities than necessary – or it might be legislated at the state level – and the companies are now playing with real estate and paying their executives too generously.

            Fortunately the direct democracy enshrined in the Swiss constitution permits interest groups to garner sufficient demand from the population to put similar issues to the community.

            The latest initiative to garner sufficient signatures for voting is the refusal to accept the federal governments proposal to reduce the annual interest guaranteed by 401k type pension companies to be paid to retirees.

            HAHA Bern’s going to have to find another means of impoverishing retirees. No doubt they will.

          • Johnny(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 8:06 pm

            Thank Les, here in the U.S. I pay about $400US monthly to be on my wife’s plan. She still works because she can only get ‘private’ insurance through work. We don’t draw social security because it would be taxed while either of us still works. The good ‘ol USA has a great system for the health care and drug business’. Not so good for citizens who can’t pay! Sometimes they end up on the street.

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 8:12 pm

            Insurance in mandatory. The local municipality ensures you are insured. There are of course people who cannot maintain payments. The taxpayer picks up the tab for necessary medical intervention in such cases.

          • Johnny(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 8:29 pm

            For those who cannot pay, the taxpayer picks of the tab in the USA as well. All people with health insurance pay higher medical costs due to those who cannot pay. However, even with that, some hospitals turn away people who can’t pay, or even dump them on the street (watch the Michael Moore USA healthcare movie.) We have a brutal system here, too much capitalism and too little compassion, integrity and common sense.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 16, 2009 at 12:26 pm
          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 7:45 pm
  7. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:54 pm

  8. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:55 pm

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:09 pm

      Thanks 2nd, your warning let me get out of my SKF pre-market while it was still up from yesterday. :)

  9. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:58 pm

    and holding at support.

  10. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:14 pm

    INTC – estimates, target raised at Goldman. Shares now seen reaching $13. Estimates also increased, to reflect better sales and margins. That said, maintaining Neutral rating, based on valuation.

    INTC – Price Target Raised from $17 to $19 @ Stifel Nicolaus. Buy

    JNJ – Price Target Lowered from $58 to $55 @ Credit Suisse. Neutral

    More on SBUX Downgrade – Downgraded at Deutsche Bank from Hold to Sell. $7 price target. Competition will continue to weigh on the company, which likely needs to close more stores.

  11. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:14 pm
    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:19 pm

      I will also note that Dave Landry is watching GLD rolling over for a short….
      The chart isn’t pretty. But then again neither is the USD….in the long run.

      If you are a little longer term or swing trading then his MA technique (bowties) can keep you on the right side of the trend or trade.

      • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 2:00 pm

        I saw Gartman on Fast Money saying gold was a short here…he would be tempted to sell into any rally of this day. Buyer beware…no pun intended.

        FD: I bought some KGC yesterday

  12. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    My takeouts from this article.
    GS would come out on the top, shenanigans would have managed it.
    Markets are going to be volatile as usual.
    Treasury officials forced to be not negative by WFC & GS one-upping them with their positive story

    http://tinyurl.com/dxqz5n

  13. Seamus(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:26 pm
    • Les(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:29 pm

      doesn’t sound serious, from the number of people being sent to the country, but should longer term economic issues hit Japan, with a 90% food import rate, perhaps its the beginning of something bigger…

  14. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:30 pm
  15. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:33 pm

  16. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:39 pm

    closed out my position at 11.57 that i bought at 9.90 average.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:42 pm

      Nice trade.

      • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 1:50 pm

        Thanks my friend.

        By the way, I posted this last night: how much emphasis do you put in the Twiggs articles? The reason I’m asking is because I looked back at his Oct 2007 and late spring 2008 posts and they seemed to not see any of this coming. I know the technical stuff can change quickly, though…

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 2:04 pm

          “how much emphasis do you put in the Twiggs articles?”

          (a) He appears to be an accomplished chartist. I’m not, and don’t have the time to learn. So it’s to my benefit to listen to what he has to say.

          (b) I’ve seen the same thing you do, that his ‘opinions’ can change on a dime. But I think that’s the nature of the market (us). So I use his targets to inform my trading, and not as outright targets. (By the same token, if I’m positioned counter-trend, I take comfort in the fact that it CAN change on a dime.)

          (c) Maybe it’s not that he’s often ‘wrong-‘ charting simply reflects what has happened in the past, and as we all know, predictions based on past information is 50/50. Otherwise, chartists would all be rich, no?

          • SiO2(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 2:07 pm

            Right on 2nd! It’s entertaining read, but I’d say the “50/50 being right” is generous. Really nice charts, yet I cannot recall one instance of them being useful.

  17. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:59 pm

  18. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:02 pm

    I hope the A team doesn’t appear on stage again today….

  19. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:08 pm

    If the ‘intent’ yesterday was to shake newbies off prior to announcing further positive developments in the financial sector, they succeeded. Just my take.

  20. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:09 pm

    AMZN – Coverage Initiated @ Benchmark with a Sell. Price Target = $60

  21. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    bought more at 21.48

  22. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    Then I bought Alcoa long coming out of a range and it did better than I thought it would…Had I held it right it would have paid for all this morning’s sins.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 2:45 pm

      INTC will be lucky to get off so easily, the actual losses could be staggering there. Perhaps it goes back to ~$13 in the short run?

  23. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:22 pm

    Hey so home builders are up 5% (and I got stopped out of KBH, one of my shorts) but I can’t find any news that’s driving the move. Anyone have any info?

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:18 pm

      pending home sales rise 2.1% maybe doing it?

      http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN01

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 3:37 pm

        No that “pending home sales” article is from April 1. But that article did move the market that day. Those guys at the NAR are great at spinning. It’s a wonder anyone believes what they say.

  24. Craig(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    Really? I remember when Bill was referencing him (4 years ago?) and he was right on for quite a while. Once we got into this type of market then TA wasn’t as predictive, but his resistance/support have been right and Twiggs money flow has been very helpful. He called the China trend change which happened/is happening. Together with my measly understanding of TA and a few other sources I have found it useful. It’s his trading diary. Like Bill’s Daily Report, they force you to look at black and white.
    TA is just one aspect. Of course Bill covers everything…..or the community hunts it down.

  25. SiO2(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:32 pm

    NYSE program trading: GS traded more for their principal account than the next 14 brokers combined, according to http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/incredibly-s

    Chart:

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FM71j6-VkNE/Sd-OEAHNw_I/

    This stuff they do with program trading is also related to this board’s beloved ultraETFs:

    “Key to note here is that Goldman’s program trading principal to agency+customer facilitation ratio is a staggering 5x, which is multiples higher than both the second most active program trader and the average ratio of the NYSE, both at or below 1x. The implication is that Goldman Sachs, due to its preeminent position not only as one of the world’s largest broker/dealers (pardon, Bank Holding Companies), but also as being on the top of the high-frequency trading/liquidity provision “food chain”, trades much more often for its own (principal) benefit, likely in tandem with the other top dogs on the list: RenTec, Highbridge (JP Morgan), and GETCO. In this light, the program trading spike over the past week could be perceived as much more sinister. For conspiracy lovers, long searching for any circumstantial evidence to catch the mysterious “plunge protection team” in action, you should look no further than this.

    […] Volume Weighted Average Price of the SPY index indicates that the bulk of the upswing has been done through low volume buying on the margin and from overnight gaps in afterhours market trading. The VWAP of the SPY through yesterday indicated that the real price of the S&P 500 would be roughly 60 points lower, or about 782, if the low volume marginal transactions had been netted out. And yet the market keeps on rising. This is an additional data point demonstrating that the equity market has reached a point where the transactions on the margin are all that matter as the core volume/liquidity providers slowly disappear one by one through ongoing deleveraging.

    Unfortunately for them, this is not a sustainable condition.

    As more and more quants focus on trading exclusively with themselves, and the slow and vanilla money piggy backs to low-vol market swings, the aberrations become self-fulfilling. What retail investors fail to acknowledge is that the quants close out a majority of their ultra-short term positions at the end of each trading day, meaning that the vanilla money is stuck as a hot potato bagholder to what can only be classified as an unprecedented ponzi scheme. As the overall market volume is substantially lower now than it has been in the recent past, this strategy has in fact been working and will likely continue to do so… until it fails and we witness a repeat of the August 2007 quant failure events… at which point the market, just like Madoff, will become the emperor revealing its utter lack of clothing.”

  26. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    I anticipated semiconductor technology would lag, didn’t really expect it this early in the game though.

  27. Seamus(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:44 pm

    Treasury International Capital (Source: Econoday)

    Highlights

    In a mostly positive report, net foreign purchases of U.S. long-term securities rose $22.0 billion in February for a solid nearly $60 billion improvement from a net outflow in January of $36.8 billion (-$43.0 billion first reported). Foreign demand for long-term U.S. securities has been uneven since the September credit panic showing alternating increases and decreases.

    But a big underlying positive, despite all the concerns, is strong demand from the nation’s two biggest customers China and Japan. Treasury holdings by China rose 0.6 percent in the month to $744.2 billion with Japan showing a sizable 4.3 percent increase to $661.9 billion. Net foreign purchases of Treasuries from all sources rose a very solid $21.6 billion with net foreign purchases of corporate & other bonds up $3.3 billion. Foreigners even showed demand for U.S. agency paper, up a net $1.1 billion to end a long run of selling.

  28. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:50 pm

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrMJzCMrYNY

    At least I’m on the right side of the trade today – the Canadian FAZ

  29. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:51 pm

    Message:

    Bill these days we need a WINNER . Please take a look at this vidio, Susan is a Spectacular WINNER. Enjoy

    http://tinyurl.com/cvpexj

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:31 pm

      awesome performance, thx for passing on Bill

      • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 3:33 pm

        Shiva, Winners know that life is all about beating expectations.

        • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 4:55 pm

          FANTASTIC!!!!!

    • bobbor(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 7:00 pm

      I am sometimes amazed at the human talent that exists out there but never sees the light of day for some reason or another.Very inspirational.Thanks for the link Bill.

      Regards

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 8:30 pm

      Bill,
      Susan was the best. Thank you for the link.

  30. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 3:09 pm

    “All in all, we have adopted a much more cautious near-term stance, expecting some sort of 1-3 week correction at the minimum, and possibly a much more complex, extended decline lasting several months. Although the cross-currents are notable, leading me to add my flummoxed comment in the blog, we are just following the data and playing Billy Ball.”

    I would take the appropriate action, based on your risk profiles. I’ll let you know about the Fidelity funds by EOD.

    • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:16 pm

      Thanks for the note 2nd….I already am shifting to gold and Inverse a little bit at a time. 90% cash too. I agree its getting to be that time. Might be a good day to dump my PFE too.

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 3:22 pm

        2nd
        Thanks
        I ony have 200 SRS i brought yesterday morning at 32.50 will hold for a while
        about direction-i don’t care,we should be able to make money either way?

  31. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    “risk minimization” for me…

  32. Terry Verduin(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 3:32 pm

    What a farce: how stressful can 0% financing be, with no competition?

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:40 pm

      “how stressful can 0% financing be, with no competition?”

      Not very, one might think. Perhaps a mechanism to be used for what purpose other than hold us in suspense?

      • Johnny(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 3:49 pm

        CP, I see it as psychological, hold us in suspense, then relief, amazingly the banks pass. That is what I expect.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 4:37 pm

          “amazingly the banks pass. That is what I expect.”

          Perhaps that’s the executive summary version, and aside from the stench of potential oxymorons surrounding the subject, I’m looking for some way to prepare for the “pleasant yet with a twist”.

          I know, government can’t think past their mile-long noses using their distorted eyesight and convoluted ability to process intelligent thought.

          Another exercise in futility….

          • Johnny(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 4:59 pm
          • vinod(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 5:10 pm
          • Johnny(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 5:21 pm
          • Otis(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 5:32 pm

            Anyone else find it odd that when he discusses jobs it’s “save or create” 3-4 million jobs???? To me “save” or “create” is a big swing either way. I prefer create.

          • Johnny(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 5:38 pm

            Otis,
            that is the definition of ‘wiggle room’…3 to 4 million, either way! And who is counting? And when does the counting begin?
            Oh, well that sure fooled me.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 5:28 pm
          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 7:36 pm
          • photogray(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 7:43 pm

            http://tiny.pl/z7jw

            Eliz Warren interview vid

          • photogray(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 7:47 pm
          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 8:00 pm
  33. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 3:32 pm

    Now reads 8.62, the highest reading I’ve yet to calculate. Maybe I should re-check my figures….

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:37 pm

      CP- Can you elaborate? How far off the scale is 8.62, and your interpretation(s)?

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 4:26 pm

        Here’s the file if you’d like a look-see, it’s rough and unpolished and I’ll admit I was a bit lazy updating the latter half of last week…

        Anyway, this is the ratio of sector range to the mean(avg). The conclusion I draw is that market action is non-uniform. Big deal, right? Well, I’m not sure this amounts to anything you don’t already recognize aside from putting things into numerical perspective… but that doesn’t stop me from playing with the numbers and attempting to qualify the yet elusive.

        I’d rather perform this calculation real time within sectors but accessing a reasonable data set is a tedious manual process for me currently.

        Feel free to dismiss this experimental effort in futility if you please, force of habit compels…

        • Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 4:31 pm

          CP –
          So does your measure suggest that any sector will eventually revert back to the mean? If Healthcare (for example) is at 5.5%, does that mean you’d like to see it pull back closer to 0.0%? Not sure how you’re playing the divergence.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 5:19 pm

            CS –

            I can’t commit to anything meaningful from this, it’s nowhere near what I’d like it to be.

  34. navid(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 3:36 pm
  35. Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 3:39 pm

    N/T

  36. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    Monday and Tuesday it became catatonic, then went over the falls between noon and 1pm ET. Today looks the same. If so I’ll buy more at the low end. (Long KGC)

  37. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 3:59 pm

    Dropped C until I have a clearer idea.

    Holding PM’s

  38. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:07 pm

    started a position at 10.98

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 4:12 pm

      bought more at 10.85

  39. Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:11 pm

    To the downside. Will short if possible with a decisive downward break.

  40. SiO2(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:12 pm
    • OldGoat(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 4:14 pm

      Had one in my rear-view mirror on the Interstate yesterday.

      • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 4:24 pm

        There is a wise statement somewhere in your post…

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 4:32 pm

          “There is a wise statement somewhere in your post.”

          Old Goat signalled a lane change in his Ferrari and let him pass.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 4:44 pm

        “Had one in my rear-view mirror on the Interstate yesterday.”

        I think this means the Lambo got dusted…

  41. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:28 pm

    To me, cherry picked data is almost worse than no data at all… Reminds me of car commercials where car W has more horsepower than X, better crash ratings than Y, better fuel economy than Z. It’s all just a load of horse manure…

    “The administration has decided to reveal some sensitive details of the stress tests now being completed after concluding that keeping many of the findings secret could send investors fleeing from financial institutions rumored to be weakest.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/15/business/economy

    • Keith(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 4:45 pm

      I think the stress test is only a way to buy time. It’s going to take time to heal the economy and the markets, and the stress tests are just a way to buy a little time. Gives people something to talk about, and gives the appearance the government is doing something. They’ll trickle out meaningless data as a smoke screen.

  42. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:30 pm

    @56.70

  43. Fox1(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:40 pm
    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 4:42 pm

      Fox – be very very very careful on that one. Look at BBBY as an example of heavy put buying right before earnings. at the very least i would straddle the options…

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 4:46 pm

        HOG has 40 mil short 20% of the flot. can be interesting?

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 11:59 pm

      Thanks for the idea. HOG does look potentially toppy here. What time do they announce?

  44. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:43 pm

    wow. talk about a disaster. Capital One said the annualized net charge-off rate for U.S. credit cards — debts the company believes it will never collect — rose to 9.33 percent in March from 8.06 percent in February.

    • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 5:57 pm

      TOF

      That news shouldn’t be a big surprise as COF made its death march downward starting in early January of this year from just above $32.50 to the March 9 lows of $7.80.

      And now the stock has broken out of a 6 week wedge, but has pulled back to the break out point. Will the break out hold ? Time will tell. Any break below $15 would portend further weakness. If the $15 level holds, then the stock could get up to $22.40ish area on the next move up.

      DFS just announced more layoffs. This sector will see more weakness before things get better, imo.

      • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 6:41 pm

        Todd – I would say that a 20% increase in defaults month over month is pretty bad. with hiring not coming any time soon I think the credit card fiasco has early in it’s life.

        this can be translated into heavy losses at the banks like JPM, C, and BAC, all of whom have significant CC exposure.

  45. Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:44 pm

    Someone tell me what to do here. I’ve got no clue with today’s action. One of the few days I can actually watch a little and it’s giving me nothin’.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 4:51 pm

      CS- ‘Sometimes nothin’s a pretty cool hand.’

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 4:54 pm

        gook like it wants to go up

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 5:02 pm

      Cornerstone, doing nothing is also a trading tactic, quite often the hardest to learn (from personal experience).

      • Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 5:06 pm

        I agree Johnny, and am sitting on the sidelines with cash. Just venting because usually I’m scrambling to find time to watch the market at all during the day, and today I have a little time but no market to watch.
        I guess I’m keeping the proverbial powder dry, which as you suggest is a trade all by itself.

        • OldGoat(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 5:19 pm

          “I always made money when I was sure I was right before I began. What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game — that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favored my play. There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play. I proved it. Whenever I read the tape by the light of experience I made money, but when I made a plain fool play I had to lose. I was no exception, was I?”
          — Jesse Livermore

  46. txdave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:51 pm

    why isn’t it logical tht dimon will produce
    good earnings, propelling jpm and other banks,
    as well as fas much higher

    anything really saying it’s over for financials?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 4:53 pm

      Not saying Dimon won’t come through. I’m just in capital preservation mode.

  47. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:59 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/dmwoqx

    “The president noted that he’s asked his economic advisers to thoroughly review how to simplify the tax code and report back to him by year’s end.

    “We need to simplify a monstrous tax code that is far too complicated for most Americans to understand, but just complicated enough for the insiders who know how to game the system,” Obama said.

    He added: “It will take time to undo the damage of years of carve-outs and loopholes. But I want every American to know that we will rewrite the tax code so that it puts your interests over any special interest. And we will make it quicker, easier, and less expensive for you to file a return, so that April 15 is not a date that is approached with dread each year.”

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 5:03 pm

      From the President’s mouth to God’s ear.
      Even if he only did this one thing (I’m not holding my breath) he would be hailed as a miracle worker.

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 5:44 pm

      The only reason to take nearly a year to “undo the damage of years of carve-outs and loopholes” is to reconfigure the same. The quickest and surest way to simplify the tax code is to start from scratch.

      Start with:

      taxes due = income X some%

      That can be massages, but every additional line adds complexity. But this would make it really easy to weigh the cost/benefit of each change.

    • nemo(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 5:45 pm

      We’ve been hearing that since Gingrich in the early 90’s if not before…Congress would have to give up too much power…ain’t gonna’ happen.

  48. tradingmyChips(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 5:22 pm
    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 6:31 pm

      TradingMyChips,
      Bloody good video, cheers!

  49. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 5:32 pm

    When in doubt, go with the current trend. And the current trend (for XLF) is still up. However, GS is a pretty good tell for financials, and GS looks like it’s a heartbeat away from having it’s daily MACD roll over. If GS closes lower today, we might have a reversal. Maybe wait for the close before jumping in?

    • tradingmyChips(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 6:00 pm

      “However, GS is a pretty good tell for financials, and GS looks like it’s a heartbeat away from having it’s daily MACD roll over.”

      Also;Both RSI and Stockastics falling from overbought levels and a classic bearish pattern confirmed yesterday.

      Continuation Wedge (Bearish)
      Event Date: Apr 14, 2009
      Opportunity Type: Intermediate-Term Bearish
      Close Price: $115.11
      Target Price Range: $56.00 – $68.00

      Price Period: Daily
      Volume: 79,213,930
      Pattern Duration: 26 days
      Inbound Trend Duration: 91 days

      No Position.About 80% cash in portfolio.

  50. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 5:39 pm

    Beige book release today, right?

  51. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 5:44 pm

    KGC failed to make it’s 1pm plunge, move up a nicle and went catatonic again. GS, is back at last Thursday’s open and telling me nothing except no volume. Option expiration weeks are like that sometimes.
    FAZ has volume.

  52. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 5:50 pm

    Someone just unloaded about 50k+ shares of CEG, just about the amount bought at yesterday’s close. No manipulation there, just sweet profit.

  53. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 5:52 pm

    Making it’s daily move down. Get ready to buy if your interested.

    • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 5:55 pm

      A breach of $14.30 could bring more selling. Hope all the KGC buyers on weakness have stop loss or option protection.

      • Johnny(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 6:03 pm

        Thanks for the heads up Todd. I’m just watching it to see if it can stay above yesterday’s low, which I would take as a positive sign. Yet it is options expiration week, so what’s normal?

  54. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 5:58 pm

    SGR.TO continues its upswing.

    CMM.V appreciates 100% since news of financing last March.

    Third test of the high in bullion prices would do very well by companies with underground narrow vein projects in Canada. Possible the junior golds will get dragged down with the markets as they did last time, but no guarantees.

    Scenario: Currencies did not participate in the rebound. Euro, Pound, Loonie, Aussie, Kiwi, Swissie may be set to continue their down trend, as they have tracked the market. Compared to the $US, they have yet to depreciate to 2002 levels. A good deal of uncertainty reigns in these currencies due to declines in interest rates.

    A further depreciation in any of these currencies to lower levels may cause a sell off of long term sovereign debt in these countries and support the $US. A lot would depend on how the Yen performs here as well, as it is the world reference currency understudy. Action in the currencies would presumably cause a third test of the high in gold.

    April 21, 2009 is the pi-cycle turn date, so we could surmise that a major market somewhere is going to turn bearish once again. I believe this will be the copper market, though a lengthy denoument will ensue, as is wont in the copper price. Along with this turn date, this may be the turning point in the forex (but not for the $US.)

    Looking now for an interim high in the silver/gold ratio around the same time.

  55. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 6:04 pm
  56. quentusrex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 6:06 pm

    Does anyone else who has an IB account leave a few gold minors on the Charts window in the TWS with HVY(Gold index) and XAU(Gold miners index)?

    What info do you normally have pulled up on a chart during the day?

    • photogray(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 6:48 pm

      Q, not sure what you are asking…..”Does anyone else who has an IB account leave a few gold minors on the Charts window..?”
      And I am by no means good with IB charts. I normally pull up the price w/ vol and then add stoch study if I am watching for a better entry point ( my personal challenge!).
      Old Goat linked an impressive chart and speaks with knowledge re IB charting. I copied one of his charts and saved it into a template that i can take any symbol to. I will try to link a gif picture. I took his gif and recreated it as closely as I could. Let me know if you can open both of them please.

      • quentusrex(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 9:21 pm

        Here is an IB TWS template for that chart. Just rename it and place it in /home/quentusrex/Jts/initial/charts/oldgoat.tpl

        Of course that path is from my system and I’m running Ubuntu 8.10. So for Windows systems it would be where ever TWS stores your settings, and under the folder charts.

  57. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 6:06 pm

    A couple of 30K share buys just turned KGC on a dime. …I wonder what Bill’s up to?

  58. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 6:17 pm

    Vinod- I think they try a run-up. For some reason it feels more like a ’round-up.’ Into the corral.

    • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 6:25 pm

      hope not 2nd, I am trying to get some inverse positions going my way. Opened negative….will close negative.

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 6:26 pm

      2nd
      Have a big bet on -OEWPR at2.35 at time 01.01.08 p.m
      hope it works out

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 6:35 pm

      My guess is a close up, but not a spectacular one, they did the ‘quite good’ run-down for yesterday and a repeat show requires some change from the routine.

  59. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 6:59 pm

    I think its time to hedge. Wrote SDS & SKF puts, bought some SDS. I think upside reward is lower than downside risk, at least for a while. Just FYI, July SKF 60s sell for $13.40 each. SKF right now is at 66. SKF 60 = XLF 11.

    Since “real” companies have tanked on earnings: INTC, BTU, and with the indicators about to roll over, I want some
    gap-down-tomorrow insurance.

  60. found(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:13 pm

    am I crazy to be looking at SRS right now?

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 7:21 pm

      I was just looking at SRS as well, trying to figure out what’s driving the move today. SO had a look at SPG which is the biggest component of underlying, and it’s up %10 today, but for no reason I can discern. But even with that %10 move up, SPG is still below it’s recent high, so it might be topping.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 7:27 pm

        “Extending a run of improving housing data, the homebuilders’ housing market index shot up 5 points to 14 in April, the biggest gain in six years and the best level since October. All components showed improvement especially single-family purchases six months out. Demand for homes is getting a boost from low prices, low mortgage rates, and an $8,000 first-time buyer credit. The report said April’s jump suggests that the housing depression is at or near the bottom”

        http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fi

        • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 9:16 pm
          • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 9:32 pm

            I think it’s pretty obvious what is going on. They are trying to goose the stock price up so that SPG can do an equity offering in an effort to help the banks somewhat as commercial real estate continues to fall.

          • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 9:43 pm

            just a further fyi.

            SPG makes up nearly 7% of IYR, which is the underlying for SRS. SPG up 14% on that Goldman upgrade. The other components of IYR also up 5-10%, hence the SRS plunge.

            http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=IYR

            And yes, it just smells like more pump and dump.

            SPG did make a new recent high, but not huge volume given the size of the jump. Looking at the SPG chart over last 5 months, looks like a 10+% move in either direction at least once a week is the norm. Crazy.

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 7:42 pm
    • photogray(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 7:27 pm

      I was looking also. Have small underwater position and also wondering whats driving it down.

  61. Quasi(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:24 pm

    I see Google and Yahoo still have the low yesterday at $8.41

    But Stockcharts has updated the chart and now show the low yesterday at $14.63

    Sometimes it does take up to 48 hours to get the bad tick errors corrected.

  62. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:27 pm

    Giving up the chance for moderate gains, as I have a lot to lose. Accounts are at 2008 levels. Not willing to risk those numbers in light of cautionary flags.

    • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 7:30 pm

      Another grade swing trade though 2nd. Congrats regardless where it goes from here!

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 11:19 pm

        Thank you, Pz.

        As of today’s close, the buy-and-hold is up 28.3% since March 4 (that includes the 4.5% turbocharge the portfolio received due to a brief move to all-cash March 26 and subsequent reentry into FIDSX/FSPTX/FSENX April 1). That’s just six weeks. I have a hard time believing it continues on this path.

        • Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
          April 16, 2009 at 2:46 am

          Nice. I’m all cash in my trading acct but by protest. Just can’t sniff out a place to be and as others have said – discipline is the name of the game sometimes. Maybe all the time.
          Still holding on to an 18.5% gain YTD for trades. My 401K is a different story unfortunately.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 12:03 am

      “Accounts are at 2008 levels.”

      Congratulations, 2nd_ave! Your ability to make money even in toughest conditions is amazing!

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        April 16, 2009 at 12:24 am

        David- Lest you forget- My ability to lose money last October was equally amazing 😉

        (I should also add that being at early 2008 levels still leaves the portfolio 25% below the Friday, September 26, 2008 level- a date neither Vinod nor I will soon forget. We both had a damned good year in 2008 playing the short side…until we switched sides on October 1.)

        • vinod(118083 comments)-
          April 16, 2009 at 12:39 am
          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            April 16, 2009 at 12:41 am

            Vinod- Absolutely. Personally, I hope you make one in the next two days on the puts.

        • David(118083 comments)-
          April 16, 2009 at 3:08 am

          (I should also add that being at early 2008 levels still leaves the portfolio 25% below the Friday, September 26, 2008 level- a date neither Vinod nor I will soon forget. We both had a damned good year in 2008 playing the short side…until we switched sides on October 1.)

          On September 26, I was up 70% over my 2.5 years of trading. At the end of October, I was down 50% (relative to where I was 2.5 years ago). So I’ll never forget the October 2008 as well.

          Right now, I have more than doubled my portfolio since the October low, but I am still 40% below my all time high of September 26. Also, I am now at the level of January 2009, so I didn’t make much progress since then, while you have made a definite progress in the last 3.5 months.

  63. Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:28 pm

    Did s/he finally succumb to the voices inside their head?

  64. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:29 pm

    Bears lose, Direxion wins. Bulls lose, Direxion wins. The license to sell FAS/FAZ is worth gold.

  65. Otis(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:35 pm

    One of my clients has just put us on call that they are bidding on future bank failures/closing through FDIC. We’ll be responsible to immediately change all the signage and financial boards. Well, work is work….

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 9:43 pm

      Hi,

      Obviously this would be bad news for the outgoing bank. Also the outgoing bank’s employees may get the short end of the stick, with incoming bank brand managers. But not always.

      But look a little deeper:

      – It is a non event for the depositor, FDIC will insure everything up to $250k
      – It is great news for the new guy taking the bank’s deposits over for pennies on the dollar
      – This is also great news for the landlord renting the place to the bank as now he has a stronger asset; a new bank tenant blessed by the FDIC as a credible entity to come in as new occupant.
      – More jobs and revenue for co’s like the one you work for
      – More jobs and revenue for the printers who have a lot of signs to make

      I see this as a pro. not a con.

      Below is a CBS “60 Minute” video of how the FDIC does it, and takes over a bank with 5 branches in Chicago:

      http://tinyurl.com/ammshf

  66. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:39 pm

    Plan to buy a few shares before close today.

  67. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:47 pm

    So C and BAC and WFC and JPM are going up pretty dramatically into the close.
    GS, on the other hand, has plateaued. I wonder what it all means.

    I think I’ll pick up some SKF.

  68. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:51 pm

    bought 1k@9.72

  69. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:54 pm

    buyer just grabed ~62k shares. I’m just watching.

  70. davelee(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:57 pm

    Bought 200@9.57

    First time putting money on this casino. :)

    EDIT – HA! I’ve never seen anything so volatile! Already a losing position in less than 3 min, FAZ down to $9.42

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 8:14 pm

      davelee, FAZ is a fast actor. It’s not a long term hold, when it rises above your purchase price, get ready to sell and not look back. 9.42 is a good price. It closed at 9.52

      • davelee(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 8:35 pm

        Thanks, Johnny.

        I’ve written calls on FAS twice before, and got burned twice.

        I have no illusions, except that I’m in agreement that the financials are due for a correction, if not mildly. My finger is already on the sell button.

  71. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:57 pm

    The noon rally told me what I needed, or should I say gave me enough of a warm-fuzzy feeling to stay long?

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 8:04 pm

      RE:>”The noon rally told me what I needed, or should I say gave me enough of a warm-fuzzy feeling to stay long?”

      I’m obviously too tight. I’ve been chasing changing trends all day. Crapola.

      Even a FAZ purchase into the closing went horribly wrong, although I did purchase it for the opening drops that we’ve witnessed the last couple of sessions.

      If it’s a strong positive opening I’ll happily ditch pre-market and be satisfied with some direction. This was nuts.

      • Johnny(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 8:52 pm

        Les,
        I don’t think you are too tight. I think you are prudent. All day I mostly watched the action. Your patience is a virtue. Only profitable trades are worth anything. Do things at your speed!

        I hope I understood you right.

  72. ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:57 pm

    Just turned on CNBC for the first time in a long while and caught an interview with Feldstein.

    For those that didn’t see it (paraphrasing), Maria Bartiromo asked him if he saw anything showing signs of growth, and he responded, “no”.

    Feldstein sees a brief turn up due to the stimulus package, and then another leg down in the economy.

  73. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:01 pm

    9.50

  74. David(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:02 pm

    Completed U.S. foreclosures jumped 44% in March to another record high, according to foreclosure-listing service ForeclosureS.com. The surge to 175,199 comes just two months after the firm said foreclosures fell sharply in January, leading it to speculate the market might be seeing a turnaround. The climb also comes amid rapidly rising unemployment and continued tightness in the credit markets, which makes it tough for consumers to refinance existing loans.

    And some more excerpts from a WSJ article:

    Some of the nation’s largest mortgage companies are stepping up foreclosures on delinquent homeowners. That will likely lead to more Americans losing their homes just as the Obama administration’s housing-rescue plan gets into gear. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all say they have increased foreclosure activity in recent weeks. Those companies say they have lifted internal moratoriums which temporarily halted foreclosures. Some mortgage companies had stopped foreclosing on borrowers as they waited for details of the Obama administration’s housing-rescue plan, announced in February, which provides incentives for mortgage companies and investors to reduce borrowers’ payments to affordable levels. Others had temporarily halted foreclosures while they put their own programs in place, or in response to changes in state laws.

    In California, notices of trustee sales, which are preludes to foreclosure sales, climbed by more than 80% to 33,178 in March, from February, according to data from ForeclosureRadar.com and the Field Check Group. The increase reflects both the expiration of foreclosure moratoriums and a California law enacted late last year that temporarily delayed default and foreclosure notices, says Mark Hanson, president of the Field Check Group, a research firm.

    Ronald Temple, co-director of research at Lazard Asset Management, expects home prices to fall 22% to 27% from their January levels. More than 2.1 million homes will be lost this year because borrowers can’t meet their loan payments, up from about 1.7 million in 2008, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

    • photogray(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 8:05 pm

      Thanks David, and yet SRS lost ~13% today!

  75. David(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:08 pm

    PNP.TO hit my sell limit order at $1.52 for 2000 shares I purchased a month ago at $1.02. That’s a nice absolute gain with very little capital invested. There is something to trading the Canadian minors. :) I still have 5000 shares of PNP.TO, which will be my long-term core position.

    The rise in financials today could be the artifact of everyone becoming very defensive yesterday after seeing the GS plunge, and so few sellers were present today. If XLF will not break out to new highs in the next few days and instead puts in a double top, then I would say the rally in financials is over.

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 8:15 pm

      “The rise in financials today could be the artifact of everyone becoming very defensive yesterday after seeing the GS plunge, and so few sellers were present today. If XLF will not break out to new highs in the next few days and instead puts in a double top, then I would say the rally in financials is over.”

      I couldn’t agree more David. I was clearly early on my re-entry into FAZ but that’s ok. I believe we’re due for a sharp pullback. Today’s action was on very light volume and what I believe was significantly program trading. I expect XLF to be back in the low 9’s shortly.

    • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 8:32 pm

      Regarding the ongoing rally in financials – if it is to continue, what kind of backlash will we see in the future?

      Of course everyone has been up in arms for months as the various banks have received TARP funding and investment, but what happens if these banks actually recover too fast and strong. Will we see outrage over the fact that companies like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have received generous taxpayer dollars with which to pillage the remnants of their competitors? Or will the average Joe Taxpayer just be happy that the markets/economy are stabilizing?

      I have a feeling that companies like GS and JPM are fairly aware that too swift recovery in their stocks might actually lead to the kind of outrage they would rather not have to deal with. Too fast of a recovery might lead to a more serious investigation regarding things like the “double-sided” bailout for AIG counterparties (I.E. cashing in on their own counterparty hedging as well as the government funded AIG payments).

  76. found(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:13 pm

    Jumped on both trains near close. Holding these overnight…what am I thinking?!?

  77. telenetworx(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:19 pm

    Today’s the last day to make an IRA contribution for ’08, I believe. Wonder how much that had to do with the late ramp or if it had anything to do with it? Not sure if this was brought up earlier.

  78. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:24 pm

    My mistake.

    SGR.V closed at the high today.

    CMM.V closed near the low.

    S.TO closed below the open.

  79. Otis(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:51 pm

    As I recall, when banks change hands they typically close on a Friday, then are re-opened on a Monday right? I was just told the potential hypothetical change-overs are to take place on a Wednesday at 5pm, then re-open on Saturday morning. Maybe it doesn’t mean anything at all. But if it did, why move it to a Weds in lieu of a Fri?

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 8:55 pm

      Les, Just my guess, but it seems like the same number of days. Perhaps Saturday has reduced hours and is better than opening for a full day on Monday.

  80. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:53 pm

    pretty text book. Also both 10/20 EMA are about to cross up thru the 50.

    http://tinyurl.com/dkbk5g

    I have never changed from bullish to bearish in 5 trading sessions, as much as i have the past 5, in my life.

    *not investment advice.

    EDIT: I did not mean i am bearish now. Just the fact i have never flipped/flopped on my stance so many times in so few days. I am officially now bullish. but that can change with a few ticks.

  81. quentusrex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 9:24 pm

    didn’t actually attach the file.

  82. Blowout Preventer(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 9:41 pm

    Inflation or Deflation?

    http://tinyurl.com/ctjbfv

    This is my basic forecasting tool, a simple relative strength ratio between commodities demand and the demand for the Long bond. I see a break out above 1.83 as confirmation of inflation expectations. Haven’t seen it yet, so deflation can’t be ruled out. Let me know if anyone thinks otherwise or has a better tool.

    Bullish Percent Indices

    I work all day and don’t have time to watch my stocks much inter-day, so I’m testing a trading strategy based on trading certain sectors via ETF (or key stocks within that sector).

    I track the Bullish Percent Indices (“BPI”) from Stockcharts.com, and I wait for a sector trading signal. One strong bearish signal occurs when a sector’s BPI rises above 70 and then falls by 6% or more. A bullish signal exists when a sector’s BPI falls below 30 and then reverses up by 6%.

    Of course, one still has to watch their chosen trading vehicles for playing the sector, but it’s a nice bit of help in getting my timing a bit more precise.

    Here’s some BPI charts:

    Financial Stocks: http://tinyurl.com/cxtpa9
    Consumer Discretionary: http://tinyurl.com/d9wxal
    Materials: http://tinyurl.com/czfaak

    Finally, here’s a thought provoking essay, comparing our current economic situation to the “quiet time” that occurred on the Titanic after it was hit:

    http://tinyurl.com/d8nh7h

    Adios!

    • Lori Smyth(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 10:38 pm

      When the BP goes above 70% the market is in a high risk area. The sell signal is not triggered until the BP drops back below 70%. Using the straight 6% (or 3 box) reversal as a sell signal by itself will give too many whipsaws. Wait for the BP to drop. Now saying that we do reduce our equity positions once we get above 70% and keep reducing all the way down. The reverse of this is in “O’s” below 30%. The buy signal is a move back above 30%. Do you own Thomas Dorsey’s book on P & F charting? It is an excellent read and helps explain this.

  83. David(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 10:17 pm

    at $26.19 (which I purchased at $17 but hoped to sell at $34). Had I not done it, I would be weary of adding more to my ERX if it fell 15% in the next few days (because of the more cautious stance I am adopting in the light of the possible downturn now), which is a bad situation — one’s position should always be small enough so that one could add to it on a decline and take advantage of the fluctuations. So I figured I should lighten up on my ERX and be ready to add to it on a decline.

  84. bluesky(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 10:28 pm

    I have hope in her (like Rattigan and Spitzer).

    Unfortunately, she reports to CONgress.

  85. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 10:47 pm
  86. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 11:27 pm

    We’re finally on the same page (ie, in cash and leaning bearish). I don’t know if you closed out the OEWPR prior to the last 30 minutes, but if not, I think odds are still good you get to close with a profit.

    How does it feel to be entirely in cash? Good.

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 11:59 pm

      2nd
      I close that oex put at 3.30 and reloaded at end at 1.50
      Made mistake in SRS, did not sell at around 37 and got stop out at 33. So, made nothing here. Brought back at 31, also added
      -OEWQP at 8.00 Rest is in cash

  87. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 11:32 pm

    “New legislation has been passed by the US government which will allow the Mint to produce palladium versions of Saint-Gaudens’ ultra-high-relief bullion coins.

    In a bill introduced by Senator Max Baucus and passed on 1st April, palladium from the Stillwater Mine in Montana could now be used to manufacture the 0.995 fine one-ounce double eagle coins.”

    Remember SWC?

  88. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 12:03 am

    i cant post charts at the moment but if you look at a chart of the GDX
    using 50/100/200 EMA’s youll see something i havent seen in a long time,

    200 about to turn up, 100/50 looking to cross above the 200 or at least track sideways and current price action bumping up against the 200 hard.

    slow STO/RSI 7 and MACD all looking set to start moving back up.

    volume is a mixed back to me. very low on the recent action. but with this basing its difficult to say what this means.

    im feeling like its a possible break out should gold move above $900, but gold itself is not looking as good. and the USD is still holding fast.

  89. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 12:07 am

  90. Blowout Preventer(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 12:32 am

    Lori,

    Thank you for sharing your knowledge. I’ll check out the book you mention.

  91. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 12:41 am

    4/15/09
    “WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–The U.S. Treasury Department again declined to name China as a currency manipulator, releasing a report Wednesday that maintains the Asian country hasn’t met the legal definition to warrant such a label and isn’t using its currency to gain unfair trade advantages.”

    “”We had been hopeful for a different finding,” said Thomas J. Gibson, president and chief executive of the American Iron and Steel Institute.

    He maintains China’s currency policies have hurt U.S. manufacturers and allows China an unfair trade advantage, a view shared by Alliance for American Manufacturing executive director Scott Paul.

    “During his confirmation hearings in January, Secretary-designate Geithner indicated that he believed China was, in fact, manipulating its currency,” Paul said. “China has made no significant movements towards a flexible and market-based exchange rate since that time, so I am not sure why the Treasury Department had a change of heart today.”

    China was last labeled a currency manipulator in 1994, the last year in which any country was cited by the U.S. for currency manipulation. “

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090415-71643

    For some reason, the two currencies have not reconciled the trade deficit, this could be due to HB&B market manipulation. Think about it, as long as American consumption was roaring at feverish pitch, HB&B made money hand over fist.

  92. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 12:45 am

    I’ll throw my doodles out there. Wedges all over the place. I see 875 as the heaviest resistance. My muddy ball sees it respected and at least a retest of the 50DMA, but in my heart I think it goes lower. So what will probably happen is it shoots to 940 first :)

  93. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 12:49 am

    Doing a little 2nd style introspection, I’m starting to doubt my bearish bias having missed most of this recent move, and I have a few, very small short positions (srs, fxp) that I feel like bailing out on. Transposing that to the broader market, i.e. if others feel the same, then there may be a lot of people about to become bag holders.

    Of course only time will tell, and the market can stay irrational longer, yada yada…

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 1:13 am

      proudPapa- I wouldn’t underestimate the value of getting into the heads of other traders. There are insights you can’t get any other way. If you get it right (and you can usually tell when you’ve hit the right angle), it gives you added conviction in your counter-trend trades.

      One of the simplest examples is spotting the guy/gal with the big smile/big wallet/purse at the table. I key in on them all the time. If/when they start losing, I start to watch closely. There’s a clear divergence- they start to lose the smile, but they try to hide it behind larger bets. When they reach for the second stack of bills, it’s time to bet the other way. They’re losing, and they will almost always continue to lose, until they’re cleaned out.

      The same kinds of patterns occur over and over in the markets as well. It’s a little harder without the facial/other nonverbal cues (you can recognize clues in the price action), which makes ‘introspection’/putting yourself into someone else’s shoes or even your own (you’d be surprised how out of touch one can be with one’s own state of mind) all that more valuable.

  94. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 12:52 am

    http://media.mcclatchydc.com/smedia/2009/04/15/17/

    Here is the Obama tax return. Experts need to examine it and report on it.

    Then we need to do the same for Henry Paulson and the key people in the current Administration, in Congress, and the Fed.

    These people are in public service and they are the people in power, so we need to know everything about them.

    Let’s get behind this project.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 1:20 am

      Very clean Schedule D 😉

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 3:32 am

      What’s interesting about this tax return can’t be found in the return itself. What’s interesting about the return is that Obama, then a nobody from nowhere basically gets the nod from Oprah and gets a couple of million advance money from a publisher. It feels as stagecrafted as Clinton’s reign but with the publishing rights secured in advance.

      Little known fact…Hitler made damn good money selling Mein Kampf even prior to becoming chancellor in ’33.

  95. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 12:56 am

    ALOHA !!

    ASX UP some 45 points …

    SLR
    While I did ask during my presentation if any of the attendees was from the IRS or the US FED or the CIA I neglected to ask if anyone was from SPROTT ASSETS. Well, it seems someone from SPROTT ASSETS is either reading this blog or they sent a rep to the CTAB CONFERENCE 2009.

    Low and behold, but look who slinked into the SLR mix today(April 16th for those in OZ)!! Buying some 12mil shares(7.8%) SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT is now a substantial shareholder of SLR-Silver Lakes. Get ready for some share price acceleration once they load up and start touting SLR. I am already up 265% since Dec lows of $0.14AUD.

    I finally beat ERIC SPROTT to the punch! I think SPROTT may have picked up some of PERILLYA’S(PEM) SLR shares. Maybe SPROTT is cashing some US Pesos he has stashed.

    OKAY … Off to CSI FED with yellow tape! Tea Party tax protest in Hilo, Hawaii!

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 2:26 am

      I thought Sprott was a perma-bear?

  96. vinod(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 1:06 am

    “The stock market was quite set up for a fall when late in the afternoon the patriots tossed the bears into Boston Harbor. Bear Market protest? Sympathy with the tea-throwers?'”

  97. mbernold(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 1:16 am
  98. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 1:53 am

    Filling in for 2nd while he scours Obama’s return.

    • Dave M(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 6:10 am

      Nikkei was up, but is now down about 20 to 8720 at 1:49ET. Will be interesting to see where it closes.

  99. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 2:16 am

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 2:23 am

      Speaking of emerging economies GDP growth, we have to keep in mind that even though positive it may not be enough to absorb all labor coming to the work force.

      For instance, India I think is forecasting around 7% GDP growth while it’s generally accepted that 10% is necessary to create work for the stream of incoming workers.

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        April 16, 2009 at 2:31 am

        CP- Agreed, I see it as a negative.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          April 16, 2009 at 3:10 am

          I see it as a shade of gray without knowledge of the expectation.

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            April 16, 2009 at 3:19 am

            The futures seem to have made a statement. DOW down 28 after being up 45. Let’s see how the Nikkei opens after lunch.

          • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
            April 16, 2009 at 5:18 am
  100. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 2:33 am

    Bill,

    Has your community in Canada wondered why executives and experts committing securities fraud rarely go to jail?

    (1) Watch the video entitled ” Securities Crime Unit ” at:

    http://www.ismymoneysafe.org/

    You will need to have QuickTime Movie Player installed. You can download it free at: http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/

    Canada’s integration of securities crime policing with securities regulation means very few securities crime prosecutions get done. We need urgent reform of Canada’s securities crime policing system. This video provides the Securities Crime Unit solution developed by the respected and recently retired Detective Sergeant of the Toronto Police Services Fraud Squad, Gary Logan. Gary Logan put two of Canada’ notorious rogue brokers in jail, Michael Holoday and Nelson Allen. This education video is hosted by Diane A. Urquhart, an independent financial analyst, and Gary Logan.

    (2) What can you do to help get this new Securities Crime Unit up and running?

    Each of us Canadians has a role to play in fixing Canada’s failing securities crime policing system.

    We need you to advocate for a Federal – Provincial Public Safety Ministers Meeting on adoption of the proposed new Securities Crime Unit (SCU).

    (a) Call or e-mail the Provincial and Federal Public Safety government officials on the attached contact list.

    Let them know about how you feel about securities fraud and how it is putting your pension fund benefits and personal retirement savings at risk.

    (b) Call or e-mail your Provincial MPP.

    We recognize that we are asking the Provincial Public Safety Minsters and the Police Services Boards to support new or incremental policing services that may require additional budget, headcount and fraud investigation expertise in their jurisdiction. We say that the gap in securities crime policing is so detrimental to the financial health of Canadians that it is incumbent upon everyone in the policing governance field to help close this gap now.

    (c) Call or e-mail your Federal MP.

    Tell your Federal MP that he or she needs to support a Hearing by the Federal House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Safety and National Security (SECU) on the proposed Securities Crime Unit.

    (3) What are we doing to get this Securities Crime Unit up and running?

    We and representatives of the National Pensioners and Senior Citizens Federation and United Senior Citizens of Ontario have been meeting with Federal Public Safety Ministry officials and the Opposition Public Safety Critics in Ottawa. We have been communicating also with the Federal Finance and Justice Ministries and their Opposition Critics, to ensure it is clear that structural change in securities crime policing does not constitute the integration of securities crime policing with securities regulation. The appropriate reform concept for integrated policing is the new SCU, which integrates police with police across the different police services of Canada. The securities policing reform concept should not be the RCMP securities crime unit retaining exclusive jurisdiction and integrating its securities crime policing work with the current securities regulators, or the new national securities commission.

    We are also communicating with the Provincial Public Safety, Finance and Justice Ministers and their Opposition Critics throughout Canada. We are informing the Canadian public in speaking engagements, such as Diane’s presentation on ABCP to the Centre for Ethics and Corporate Policy in Toronto, which is sponsored by large corporations, financial institutions and legal firms. Both Diane and Gary spoke to the McMaster University World Economic Crime Conference in Hamilton.

    There has been media coverage of the proposed SCU, that may be seen at the following web addresses.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mb5zpALTy88 – CBC News Toronto, March 20th

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apH0FXnthD8&feature… – CBC Radio Canada, Apr. 8th

    We are hosting internet-based webinars/teleconferences in the coming weeks, where they will further explain the new SCU and answer questions from Canada’s Police Services Boards and our Provincial and Federal Governments’ Public Safety officials.

    (4) Why is the Securities Crime Unit a critical reform in today’s financial and economic crisis?

    Effective securities crime policing is a necessary ingredient for the stability of Canada’s financial system. The world’s, including Canada’s, financial system has been rocked by systemic fraud in subprime mortgages and structured credit products sold by the securities industry . The essence of securities fraud is deceit and it is not possible to believe that sophisticated industry players did not know they had packaged credit products with toxic ingredients that would eventually harm their customers.

    The rogue brokers and financial advisors must also be brought to criminal justice for the sake of Canadians victimized by their thefts and forgeries. The financial crisis in Canada is wreaking havoc on many through job losses, pensions underfunding and savings lost. In many instances these calamities may be traced back to securities crimes where no policing intervention or deterrence has taken place.

    (5) What will the new Securities Crime Unit achieve?

    The Securities Crime Unit is a new Federal – Provincial structure to organize and fully utilize the resources and facilities of all the police agencies of Canada in order to provide for the public safety of our pension funds and personal retirement savings throughout Canada. We do not believe that the RCMP Integrated Market Enforcement Team should have exclusive jurisdiction for securities crime policing in the country.

    The SCU introduces a direct process to receive and assess securities crime complaints and to assign the criminal files for investigation and prosecution to the appropriate police service throughout Canada or to the RCMP. The SCU is intended to stop the RCMP and other police force’s delegation of intake and assessment of alleged securities crimes to the Ontario Securities Commission, the other provincial securities commissions, and the Self-Regulatory Organizations (SRO’s), like the Investment Industry Regulatory Association of Canada and the Mutual Fund Dealers Association of Canada. It is also designed to rescind the current federal government requirement for the RCMP to share its securities crime complaints and evidence with the Joint Consultation Committee made up of representatives of these securities regulators.

    There are no seasoned detectives of securities fraud at the provincial securities commissions and the Self-Regulatory Organizations, and so how can these securities regulators make recommendations about the handling of alleged securities fraud. Even if there were, how can securities regulators controlled by the investment industry through funding be acting without a conflict of interest in their strong say in the assessment and investigation of securities crimes affecting their funding sources. In any case, the provincial securities commissions and the Self-Regulatory Organizations have no jurisdiction to administer the Federal Criminal Code, so they have no business being fully integrated into the criminal assessment and investigation process.

    Sincerely,

    Gary Logan

    and

    Diane Urquhart
    Independent Financial Analyst

  101. Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 2:50 am

    For posting your trades and thoughts here. No snark intended but – do you ever lose money on a trade?
    It seems that even when you sleep in your instincts pull in the long green.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 3:46 am

      Corner Stone, I tend to hold onto losing positions and even add to them, trying to trade my way out of them. So in this strategy, 95% of my trades will be winning trades, but the remaining 5% will give me huge losses. I am learning to be just as flexible as 2nd_ave and other good traders on this site and avoid being stubborn in my assessments of how good each position is. But as I have realized, being able to change one’s mind on a dime is a mark of a great trader and it takes time to learn to be like that.

      Two days ago I sold my remaining shares of SWC at $4.74 and bought KGC instead. Some people here might remember that I started scaling into SWC at $12, and then through trading lowered my cost basis to around $8. Similarly, a few weeks ago I sold almost all of my SLW at $6, and some people here remember that I started scaling into SLW at around $12 and then lowered my cost basis through trading to around $8. So occasionally I do close my trades with heavy losses.

      • Ventilation Blues(118083 comments)-
        April 16, 2009 at 4:44 am

        I like sharks comment “Remember SWC?”. I remember it every time i see my portfolio!!. Its still like -50% along with that other dog WGW. Yes, they were LONG.
        Id like to get an opinion here, are either of these worth holding onto or shall i ditch them and get into this KGC thing the entire comunity appears to be riding on?.
        I want my porfolio to break even on 2008 before Bills mentioned potential 7 month lull and down turn.
        Selling TCK today, its been the sweetest these past 5 weeks.

  102. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 3:01 am
  103. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 3:05 am

    http://tinyurl.com/cxs59v
    GMKT closed at 19.96

    at $1.2B, good to see cash is being put to use toward growth.

  104. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 5:04 am

    Interesting break up through a declining trendline on increasing volume. Higher highs, higher lows. Seems bullish for Canadian dollar.

    FD: long FXC

  105. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 6:29 am

    For those of you who follow Mr. Mortgage this is not news, but it made Bloomberg just today. It was on the “breaking news” section for a time, but then it got moved back to the “Real Estate” section to be replaced by “Global Confidence at 11-Month High as Credit Thaws”. No I’m not making this up.

    http://tinyurl.com/dkp47g

    April 16 (Bloomberg) — U.S. foreclosure filings rose to a record in the first quarter as employers cut jobs in the recession and temporary programs to delay action on defaults came to an end, RealtyTrac Inc. said.

    FD: Long SRS

  106. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 8:18 am

    ALOHA!!

    Back from TEA PARTY HILO!! Held on BAY FRONT, the main street that goes through town along Hilo Bay. I’d say around 300 people turned out which is sizable for Hilo. About 80% of cars passing by honked their horns and shouted their support. I met a number of people from other areas other than Hilo and even one contractor from Santa Rosa, California. We talked about three phase electrical systems and public works and unions! HA!!!

    I also had a good talk with John Kai of Pinnacle Investments. He has a local Wall Street radio show. We talked about gold. For a stock broker who started with Merrill Lynch and Paine Webber back in 1991 to advocate for gold on the public radio is refreshing these days. He sits on the Board of ML Macadamia Orchards(NNUT:PK)MAUNA LOA. You have probably seen these in WALMART. They are the biggest ag grower on this island and its the only public listed company based on the Big Island of Hawaii.

    John Kai/Pinnacle link: http://www.go2pinnacle.com/Who_We_Are.aspx

    The crowd had a lot more younger people than I expected. Then there was a lot of older types as well and some Vietnam vets as well. Everyone was friendly and talkative and excited and I saw some creative signs out there. One guy wore a lei with Lipton tea bags on it! Another old guy had a sign that read “PROUD OWNER OF AIG AND FNM”! Another lady had a sign that read “MOST WANTED: FRANK & DODD GANG”! My sign had CSI DC on one side and then I flip it around and it had CSI FED on the other with yellow crime scene tape wrapped around the sides. A good laugh … I mean how else can you describe Washington DC and the US FED other than CRIME SCENES???? Except the crimes being committed are never investigated let alone prosecuted! I did not see one DEM or REP sign or any RON PAUL signs, even though talking to people some voted RON PAUL. I did not bring any RON PAUL paraphernalia. So it was pretty much ZERO POLITICAL PARTY!! In fact one speaker made a point of saying, “THIS IS NOT A DEM RALLY, NOT A REP RALLY … IT IS AN AMERICAN PEOPLE RALLY!” YES … keep the divisive political party BS out! My kind of people!! RUSH are you listening?

    There were no politicians in the crowd and I did not see Jesse Jackson or Al Gore or Angelina or Madonna or OPRAH or BONO! So this was definitely a NO SHOW for all the CELEBS! Nope … NO OBAMA either!! So in essence the only people paying for every dime that OBAMA so easily spends are on their own. No support whatsoever from elected cowards or the mainstream media darlings. I gather the pervasive thought is … “What reason do we Americans have for protesting taxes since we are so rich?” Its the same fatal flawed thinking that even OPRAH continuously espouses that somehow, DEBT=WEALTH! She goes out of her way to announce that AMERICA IS THE RICHEST COUNTRY ON EARTH! If DEBT=WEALTH then YES OPRAH, you are dead right! But DEBT is WEALTH only to those who dispense DEBT … the bankers! That belief will be the nail in this country’s coffin …

    I’d say the protest was a hit judging from the participants but even more so from the passer-bys in cars, especially the UPS drivers!

    My brother went to the protest in Dallas,TX with his youngest son and he said it was a big turn out.

    Since I do not have a TV I do not really know how all this was portrayed in the media. I heard from some people I spoke with at the protest that it was played down on CNN but played up on FOX.

    IT IS WHAT IT IS !!!

  107. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 9:32 am

    ALOHA !!

    So far NO CLASS … No CLASS ACTION lawsuits! But here is one that is against Wells Fargo that may open a floodgate if successful. I can’t imagine a trustworthy US BANK like WELLS FARGO with Daddy Warren on the Board stooping to this sort of PUMP AND DUMP!

    From the law firm of Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLC based in Seattle, WA.

    READ ON:
    Class Action Says Wells Fargo, Rels Illegally Strong-arm Appraisers

    April 14, 2009

    SEATTLE – Today two real-estate appraisers filed a proposed class-action lawsuit against Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Rels Valuation, an appraisal management service, claiming the two organizations pressured and intimidated appraisers to deliver artificially inflated home appraisal values to help close loans and increase profits.

    The suit, filed in U.S. District Court in San Francisco under the Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Practices Act (RICO), claims that beginning in 2004 Wells Fargo and Rels colluded to punish appraisers who refused to inflate appraisals by denying them future appraisal work.

    Rels is one of the largest appraisal management companies in the country, acting as an intermediary between banks and appraisers. Appraisers, by law, are intended to be independent and autonomous from the influences of others, but according to the complaint are compelled to do the bidding of Rels, and through them Wells Fargo.

    “We plan to show Rels effectively tells the appraisers what they want to see in the valuation, and if they don’t deliver, they are locked out of future work,” said Steve Berman, the attorney representing the plaintiffs and managing partner of Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro.

    According to Berman, Rels provides the appraiser with a predetermined figure called the ‘Borrower Estimated Value’ and expects the appraisers to deliver reports with values exceeding the Rels-supplied figures.

    “We heard from appraisers who say that after providing bona-fide appraisals that come in below what Rels wants, the company contacts them and strongly suggests they reevaluate the property,” Berman noted. “If an appraiser refuses, we contend Rels simply refuses to use them again.” (more)

    Any appraisers out there know about this? Might be a good time to cash in on the $3bil WFC profit … WFC certainly has plenty of money to waste on class action! Jeez, Goldman would be a class action lawyers GOLDMINE!

    Lighten the load GS!

  108. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 9:34 am

    ALOHA !!

    I have mentioned here before I pulled out of all annuities in 2007/2008 and poured those funds into gold/silver. Afterward I heard words like “GATING” being bantered about. Gating is limiting redemptions by eliminating lump sum distributions. Like a gate that lets out only a few dollars at a time … until there’s nothing left to let out!

    Link: http://tinyurl.com/dck8u2

    Now I read this and I see LINCOLN is looking dire, but more than any Prudential looks like hell. Look how much of Prudential(PRU) is locked up in high risk assets as a percentage of shareholders equity … 218%!! Look at the amount of “non-investment grade bonds” and “subprime” that PRU has! Hartford, MetLife and Protective Life are not much better … AFLAC seems the least risky. The duck wins!

    Look at the Canadian Insurers like GREAT WEST LIFECO … 134%!

    I have said before that with a 6-7% ROI being breakeven and companies like Lloyds bragging that their ROI beating all its peers at 1% you have to wonder what sort of fantasy world these guys live in …

    Let me break it down into layman’s terms: NO JOBEY … NO MONEY!

    Where will the new policies come from? Without fresh blood … new policies … does that not cause the pyramid model some problemos? Or does “unemployment benefits” cover life insurance premiums? I do not know anyone who considers life insurance a necessity, unless you’re almost dead! But is there a guarantee 5 or 10 years from now that when you die they will pay off? The main guarantee has always been the company’s solvency isn’t it? And that was always embedded in “conservative” insurance portfolios, but obviously this chart points out the insurers have not been conservative. Look at AIG as the poster child for bad insurance behavior!

    Has anyone here looked at the insurers as SHORT FODDER, since Alt A resets are coming up soon. But the real problem is new policies. Anyone following that aspect?

    Even OBAMA said unemployment will get worse! Come on OBAMA quit wasting time, just send every US citizen a check for $30,000 and quit dicking around! You’ve already wasted that much and you got nothing to show for it! Pay all our DEBT off and we’ll start spending again …

    NO JOBEY … NO MONEY!

  109. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 9:56 am

    ALOHA !!

    A look at the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT for April 14th, 2009 shows that the total of all Federal Tax Deposits from all tax sources including corporate, excise, estate and individuals and payroll is LESS THAN the total two mystery line items listed as OTHER and UNCLASSIFIED. Total tax deposits for 2009 so far are $1.109TRIL USD and total for the two mystery line items is $1.445TRIL USD!

    Look at the DEBT ISSUES … by far the majority of DEPOSITS into the Federal Reserve Account, so by all intents and purposes this country runs on nothing but DEBT every single day, every single hour, every single minute! Take away America’s ability to sell DEBT and we are DONE! Without DEBT we would not exist as a NATION! OPRAH did you catch that?

    PLEASE-E-E-E … What wealth?

  110. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 10:14 am

    Today’s focus will be on the US commercial real estate market. Yesterday’s rally into the close was, I believe, a trap. I have been watching the T-Bill yield collapse to 0.140 at the close yesterday, which told me that big money was being shifted into basically cash, which is usually done to avoid a significant downdraft in the equity market. I believe that advance news of the General Growth Properties chapter 11 filing leaked into the market and certain vested interests front-ran the news to the public by moving to cash while hyping the broad market advance. Call me a skeptic, but this market has gotten me totally out of sorts in the past week, so I figured something big was likely to come down.

    • Lori Smyth(118083 comments)-
      April 16, 2009 at 10:27 am

      More scary and the not mentioned part is that the Banks (Gov’t) may be hiding some foreclosures or at least not reporting the numbers so as not spook the Real Estate markets even more than they already are. No one knows what is lurking in “the shadows” or being suppressed .

  111. Lori Smyth(118083 comments)-
    April 16, 2009 at 11:32 am

    The Business Insider reports: The recent market rally that
    started on March 10th caught most equity quant fund managers
    by surprise, and it is turning out to be painful for the vast majority of them.
    This, in turn, may wind up bringing the stock market rally to a screeching halt.
    Barclay’s analyst Matthew Rothman wrote in a recent note to clients
    that he after talking to 80 quant fund managers, he discovered that
    only one was up since March 9th. The majority admitted to being down
    during the rally. “It is fair to say that just about everyone is bewildered
    and trying to understand when this rally will end,” Rothman writes.
    So why should you care about the quants? Because they play an important
    role in the markets, and changes in their activities can have effects on the
    broader markets. Merrill Lynch analyst Mary Ann Bartels says that quant
    funds have been reducing their market exposure at accelerated rates since
    late March, a couple of weeks after the rally began. She warns that this
    could lead to a surge in volatility since quantitiate hedge funds provide
    volatility smoothing liquidity to equities markets.
    Zerohedge says that the market rally could be building us to the “black swan of black swans”
    from this apparent quant unwind, with markets crashing around violently.
    =====================================================

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