Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Tuesday, Jun 30, 2009

[5:40am ET] Aussie-based technical analyst Colin Twiggs believes that gold at 940 is at a break-out point, either up or down. As you know, I agree; moreover I have opined that the price of gold will any day make a spurt to $1,000/oz, and so I have closed the bullish put writes in the gold and silver miners and switched to an even more bullish program of buying calls. Today could be the break-out day. Of course, central banks are loathe to permit that break-out. It

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138 Comments

  1. barry(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 10:29 am

    “Phosphorus Famine: The Threat to Our Food Supply”

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=p

  2. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 11:43 am

    Barry thanks. I recall reading that human feces is loaded with nasties, but tests have demonstrated that it takes about 70 days for e.coli to reduce to negligent levels, when the crap is spread into the soil. Farmers here might want to correct me if I’m wrong.

    Once we get over the ‘icky’ factor (I know that cow manure sprayed onto fields around here is smelly enough) I think there is a substantial source of recyclable nutrients to be found for our crop needs. Whether it contains sufficient quantities of phosphorous??

    We could certainly start by substituting livestock manure for chemical fertiliser.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 12:19 pm

      When I as in high school (in the 1950s) and working at a local hardware store there was a product from the Milwaukee sewage system called Milorganite that was popular with gardeners.

      I have no idea if this is still around or, if so, is in the market.

  3. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 11:57 am
    • number2son(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 12:44 pm

      In Matt Taibbi’s article in this week’s RS, he discusses how Goldman Sachs and others manipulated oil prices last summer despite weak demand and rising supply. Is it happening again?

  4. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 12:16 pm

    Good morning.

    New Coverage:

    EXC – Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $61
    JCP – Robert W. Baird Initiates Coverage with a Neutral. Price Target = $29
    NOK – BMO Initiates Coverage with an Underperform. Price Target = $11
    QCOM – BMO Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $60
    RIMM – BMO Initiates Coverage with an Outperform. Price Target = $100

  5. ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 12:22 pm

    The chart on SLW was posted yesterday morning so it’s not up to date through yesterday’s trading – but the pattern looks like it’s taking form.

    SLW chart: http://chart.ly/r9p559

    Here’s a chart of DUG. http://chart.ly/zmhgpm

    • Bev(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 1:27 pm

      ToddinFL
      Download this pic of DUG last night [forgot which blog]. Lines up with your chart of DUG.

      • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 1:44 pm

        Interesting, Bev.

        There are so many people out there who are watching the same charts and deriving different scenarios.

        For DUG, I could see it pulling back a tad lower, maybe to 18ish or just slightly under. The other day I posted a chart of WTIC on either TwitPic or chart.ly (can’t remember) where I saw a possible topping pattern.

        Who knows how this will all play out ? I just watch the charts …

  6. bankchamp(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 12:31 pm

    Bill’s comments on Gold seem spot on to me. I posted a version of the chart below the other day when we broke through the downtrend and stuck a toe above the moving average resistance lines.

    We closed yesterday a few pennies below support on the GLD ETF, but Gold itself held support.

    Buying interest continues to build in GLD as the accumulation line continues to move upward.

    http://tinyurl.com/npctdx

    Mark

  7. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 12:31 pm

    I can see that the TBT purchase yesterday was flawed and SLW is very much touch n go for the day. If gold could go ballistic, twould be nice.

  8. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    Added at 13.82

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 1:19 pm

      Craig- Is there news driving the drop in UNG (are contracts being rolled over)?

      Might be better set-ups in the broad market today.

      No positions right now, all cash.

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 1:27 pm

        2nd, I’m more inclined to suspect $USD strength (UUP is up) USO down, PM’s down premkt, etc.

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 1:54 pm

      Craig- A little busy with a work report, but back in at 13.85. I like the fact that this trade is not dominating the media still.

  9. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 12:47 pm

    Was reminded when I subscribed that I had already downloaded a test period. Remember that I didn’t have a clue how to read a chart at the time. Better now. Lots of multiple overlays possible – sweet.

  10. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 12:57 pm

    * Financial terms of the deal not disclosed

    * Geron shares up 23 pct, GE shares rise 1 pct

    June 30 (Reuters) – Geron Corp (GERN.O) and General Electric Co (GE.N) unit GE Healthcare said they agreed to develop and market embryonic stem cell products for use in drug discovery, development and toxicity screening.

    The companies said the program will use stem cells derived from human embryonic stem cell lines listed on the National Institutes of Health’s Human Pluripotent Stem Cell Registry, but did not disclose the financial terms of the deal.

    The first products developed in the alliance are expected to be available by early 2010, with a pipeline of products to follow, the companies said.

    According to the agreement, GE Healthcare will have an exclusive license under Geron’s intellectual property portfolio that covers the growth and differentiation of human embryonic stem cells.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustrialCongl

  11. Quasi(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 1:20 pm

    Les you asked on the previous CC whether a Stockcharts membership gives you the ability to plot more than 3 overlay / indicators.

    Yes absolutely, along with many other options not available in the free mode. I have the Extra membership level which for my purposes is the best value. I mostly like the advanced scan engine.

    Here’s a link to the full membership comparison table.

    http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=support:se

  12. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 1:26 pm

    SAN’A, Yemen – A passenger jet carrying 153 people crashed into the Indian Ocean in bad weather early Tuesday while trying to land at the island nation of Comoros. Search teams rescued a child from the sea, officials said, but there was no word on other survivors.

    The Airbus 310 operated by Yemenia was flying the last leg of a journey taking passengers from Paris and Marseille

    I’m beginning to think there’s something wrong with these Airbusses. They crash harder than the Sex Pistols after a world tour.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 1:42 pm

      Trust the french – absolutely Sharky. European registered aviation companies and those that visit European airports must pass European inspection (ditto in the US). This aircraft was a transfer flight outside of European jurisdiction. Funny that NYT should emphasise “Airbus” repeatedly.

      But back to the markets…

  13. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 1:47 pm

    Closed out TLT at $93.89 (bought @ $90.46, june 12). May buy TBT if price holds above the open after amateur hour.

    • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 2:14 pm

      Just did a quick look at these two symbols.

      TLT looks like it may have more on the upside if either of these patterns work out – we shall see …

      TLT chart: http://chart.ly/qmesdq

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 2:17 pm

        🙁 Now you show me that – I’m in TBT now. Well, maybe it will be a short ride while the RS on TLT forms 🙂 Nah…TBT is the right place to be for the longer term!

        • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
          June 30, 2009 at 2:25 pm

          Mackinaw, no disagreement from me re: TBT longer term.

          Short term, govt can create a lot of distortions in the markets.

          Here’s a longer term look at TLT which shows 2 different channels drawn from the January highs, and then the December highs.

          TLT longer term chart: http://chart.ly/nqc22w

  14. mSquare(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 1:55 pm

    If you wanted to play the upside via options (cheaper), does anyone have any specific bullish spreads?

    I am not too options-savvy, but to me the GLD options are costly and seem to be pricing-in a fall below 920 (Aug/Sep timeframe) as almost as likely as a rise above 940.

  15. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    reverse stock July 9th, 1:10 on Faz and 1:5 on Fas

    http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=te

    • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 6:34 am

      What about shorting both?

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 7:21 am

        Take MK’s buy and sell signals as your guide KC. He’s not keen on the leveraged inverses as of yesterday evening. Shorting on an intraday basis might work. But after this whiplashing reversal its clear that caution is required.

  16. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:11 pm

    • Ad(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 2:25 pm

      I am tired of fighting the Fed. How are we ever supposed to win in such a rigged game?

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 2:29 pm

        Maybe Gold just left the dance floor?

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          June 30, 2009 at 2:39 pm

          I think it’s just getting caught in the downdraft. The buck is soaring today, and the SPX has been dropping hard (14 points?) ever since the confidence numbers came out at 10:00.

          Now you might ask why the buck went up when confidence numbers go down. Heck if I know.

          “Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in!”

  17. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:15 pm

    Wow, look at APOL, DV, STRA, and the lot… (Schools up 5.69%)

  18. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    MarkW [Mark]… just saw your Sound of Music Antwerp Begium Train Station from last night. Cute! Thought you might enjoy the Liverpool Station 2009 vid.

    http://tinyurl.com/8h644y

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 2:29 pm

      Thanks Bev- A lot more fun than watching my miners this morning…yikes.

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 2:52 pm

        Hey Mark!

        here’s some prairie dog support on the miners!!

        i’m buying!

        vb

        • MarkW(118083 comments)-
          June 30, 2009 at 2:58 pm

          Thanks VB- If you look really close, you can see me amongst the blades of grass. TBT ans KGC still green, SLW, AUY dragging.

  19. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:18 pm

    ERTS – Upgraded at Merrill/BofA from Neutral to Buy. $26 price target. Expect the company to exceed earnings expectations the next couple of quarters and also benefit from the launch of Sims 3.

  20. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 7:30 pm

      Going to watch the finish from the sidelines.

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 7:43 pm

        Thanks for the heads up 2nd….

        ERX out at 29.31

  21. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:28 pm

    Just when I was about to start covering my shorts, consumer confidence takes a dip. Boy, now that’s timing. Unfortunately I’d also bought some KGC, so any celebration would be premature.

  22. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    the U.S. Navy, will it be good enough for the U.S. population… I would have to think yes, but politics will have a huge say-so…( They are under contract to the NIH ) Its really hard to say if stock or warrants will be issued for new funding… @ their cmv vacccine update will be issued soon…. I will be adding to INCY at price points… FTEK is starting to show some sort of life, and patiently waiting for AMSC to reach a buy signal ( again )… AMAG will have a FDA decision soon… some traders saying $ 75.00 would be in reach, but it is a terribly emotional equity…. bol…

  23. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:39 pm

    Just bought some more MTW and looking at adding gss and nxg. (My best moves in the past have been when market is going down although it is hard to pull that trigger).

    PS Here is what Bill said this morning

    ” At some point, we will look at prices and admit there is a stable Bull trend in place. “

    Still reading Bill’s book Geez, I think I need to take a live class to learn how to read charts. Yikes!

    vb

  24. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:41 pm

    While Rome burned. We were Rome.

  25. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:42 pm

    Geez, I’ve been stopped out of almost all longs.
    It’s not so much an effort to kill gold but and effort to strengthen $USD.
    I guess it depends on which pointy end of your tin foil hat you wear to the front…

    Of course now that I’m stopped out it clears the way for a rally.

  26. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:42 pm

    ToddinFL what does your chart look like for SLW? I still have a H&S on mine.

    http://tinyurl.com/lnpxho

    • Bev(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 2:43 pm

      Sorry ToddinFL old link… Here is the new one

      http://tinyurl.com/lnpxho

      • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 2:57 pm

        Bev

        Your chart is a perfect example of what I said earlier – same chart & varied viewpoints.

        I can’t disagree with your assessment. That said, if you look at the chart I posted here @ 8:22 AM this morning, then if my scenario is valid, the bottom trendline at roughly $7.80 is a very important support area.

        In either case, I think the stock could drop below last Tuesday’s low of $7.73, if for no there reason than to shake out the short term traders. We’re all (including market makers) looking at the same charts and drawing the same trendlines.

        That’s why placement of stops is more an art than a science – and why my line in the sand is around $7.23ish.

      • gc(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 3:47 pm

        slw on a reversal?

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          June 30, 2009 at 4:12 pm

          “slw on a reversal?”

          SLW is probably just down in sympathy with the PM’s today.

  27. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:49 pm

    1/2 way there…

    http://tinyurl.com/m7wjjj

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 3:06 pm

      Bev, Bev, Bev. I’m betting on human nature. How about 940?

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 3:26 pm

        Agreed. back to yesterday’s opening dip as support. All gains within 24 hours erased. That’s some whiplash, but not yet freefall. Waiting to see if SPY holds at a double bottom shortly.

        I think games are being played at EOQ time. +1 to the opposition at present.

        edit: Pulled up UPRO on my trade screen for first time. Finger on the trigger for a whiplash in the opposite direction, should it play out.

        Something got investors panicky in Europe closing. What, no more happy green shoots feelings?

  28. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:54 pm

    for their project, although all trend lines are heading down ( on small vol.).. just a toss out.. I’m not in, but looking for a reversal soon…

  29. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 2:56 pm
  30. ChrisM(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 3:05 pm

    MarkW, I think you mentioned last week that you were expecting to get an update over the weekend. Could you share please?

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 3:34 pm

      Hi Chris- Will do after work…

    • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 3:48 pm

      Huge volume the other day was Russell 3000 addition of stock. I just sold all at 3.81 bought at 4.07. I see no short term catalyst for the stock here.

      The most interesting thing is the institutions that own it are solid, but as always its OPM.

      My bad the other day for not thinking of the russell re balancing the other day. I should have sold the day I bought in after hours when it essentially closed unchanged for the day on huge volume. Again my bad, but glad to be rid of it.

      It is kind of a screwed up day as all my positions are down. I’m very tempted to sell all but my gold holdings and re-access things with a clear mind.

  31. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 3:12 pm

    too much bullish consensus on the gold boards, Jim Sinclair as much as i respect his efforts and calls on gold is calling for the US dollar to collaspe in 128 days.

    too many people assuming support would hold and gold must jump above and beyond $1000 because of all this alleged money printing. i agree with Bill’s take on Colin Twiggs and the resistance/support sentiments and how gold could move both ways.

    not enough people asking “if all this money printing is happening and has been happening for so long, why isnt gold already much higher? and why is the US dollar still well above its lows of 2008?”.

    too much talk of the US dollar collapse, and hyper inflation. it may happen, but those watching the daily moves in the market act as if they can hit a switch and jump on the gold train. we have been in a monetary stimulus environment for almost a year, gold is not much off where it was last year, the USD is higher, and commodities are still struggling to retrun to last years levels…. explain to me what exactly the inflationists believe will happen as thus far, nothing has come true from these schools of thought.

    remember that one, nothing has come true from the schools of thought that said inflation is coming, commodities are the place to be, gold will go to the moon and survive an equity crash. for the vast majority of gold bugs out there and you know who you are sitting on a pile of mining companies you must look yourselves in the mirror and ask why you still believe the US is going to hell in a hand basket while China still buys their bonds, does business with them, and ads on TV admonish people to buy gold because the US dollar is going to the crapper…. hmmmmm….

    as always i side long term with the bullish gold camp, but for different reasons than many of them claim…

    people talking about central banks holding down the POG are under the spell of forces that dont have your interest in mind. GATA and the like continue to chant manipulation but only when its downwards, and claim to have “inside” sources as if there exists a secret cabal of gold manipulators that would leak info to the largest gold conspiracy group in the world… for free.

    wake up gang, gold is manipulated all right, but in both directions, and so is everything else, so in a sense nothing is manipulated because the game itself is manipulation. next time someone shouts that bankers dont want higher gold, ask them:

    1. if this is true, why would central banks hold so much of something they want to go down?

    2. if this is true, how did gold triple in price the past 8 years?

    3. if this is true, why do nations like Canada, south africa, russia and the US dedicate billions to precious metal exploration and acquisition if the underlying asset is something they wish to see go lower?

    4. if this is true, why do we infer that they will successfully bring the price down? we all believe CB’s to be manipulators, could their anti-gold rumblings be just a false flag? or even worse a double false flag?

    5. if this were true, it would represent the first and only instance in teh history of political economy where the worlds powers not only agreed unanimously on something, but acted in complete coordination to bring it to fruition. if the CB’s are scared of a higher gold price, it would require that any and all CB’s wish gold lower, for the first to break the pact and acquire more gold would break the chain…

    6. but wait… banks are buying gold, china is buying gold, so why isnt the gold price going higher and higher? why is it still over 2 years since its last high? CB’s are either successful or have no control over gold… or maybe, just mabey, they have successfully convinced us that they hate gold, but are fearful of its possible rise, adding more luster to its already precious nature….

    by then the person will have walked away or run away from you because they have never met an anti-gold bug so well armed against their sad tirade of unproven emotional arguments.

    remember, most gold “experts” are wealthy selling newsletters, not trading gold according to their own predictions otherwise they’d be just like you and me on a free message board asking what the group thinks of ABC-123 gold on the Venture Exchange… and i maintain there’s better TA and fundamental analysis freely exchanged here than most paid websites…

    peace

    • bullwinkle(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 3:27 pm

      Doc,

      Great post!

      Just curious, you state “as always i side long term with the bullish gold camp, but for different reasons than many of them claim…”

      What are your reasons? If it is not inflation or the FED driving the POG then what is, in your opinion?

      Thanks.

  32. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 3:30 pm

    get invited to the Russell 3000, and/or get some mojo, and the ‘ black-monster ‘ trading robots have sniffed it out, and are on the hunt for flesh and blood…

  33. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    2 day trading play.

  34. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 3:38 pm

    TIN – Just how much longer can this corrugated fiberboard manufacturer continue to defy the forces of gravity? One might think consumer goods manufacturing has fully recovered judging by the price of this stock (Formerly a part of the ailing Guarantee Financial).

    Just what gives?

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 5:44 pm

      “Just how much longer can this corrugated fiberboard manufacturer continue to defy the forces of gravity?”

      Maybe all the foreclosed homeless are building corrugated fibreboard shanty towns? Or maybe it’s useful in packing up stuff when moving out? Or maybe it’s just being propped-up because it’s “green” manufacturing technology?

  35. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    that are trading against your positions ( and thank you for the answer )… Although I am a very, very small fish in this sea of trades, is it correct to assume those same phantoms ocassionaly sift through the blog, and also trade against the small guys ( maybe out of spite ? )… maybe I am paranoid, but there is a saying I always remember: ‘ oftentimes, paranoia is nothing more than heightened awareness ‘…..

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 4:40 pm

      baz22, I think the algo programs have bigger fish to fry. They trade against order flow, which is fact, not against what some small retail bloggers are talking about. But, as some of the readers (not commenters) do happen to be following along the blogs, at least some of them, I do think that the more influential bloggers are monitored, mostly to help some traders determine where the order flow might be coming from in future, and those projections are used in decision systems.

      Bottom line; I shouldn’t worry about it. I know I don’t.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 4:46 pm

        “I do think that the more influential bloggers are monitored, mostly to help some traders determine where the order flow might be coming from in future, and those projections are used in decision systems.”

        I always do my best to throw them as many curve-balls as possible.

        • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
          June 30, 2009 at 5:33 pm

          CP: “I always do my best to throw them as many curve-balls as possible.”

          Hah! _I just do my normal thing – trying to throw fastballs – and they end up as pathetic ‘lil curveballs. 😛

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            June 30, 2009 at 5:35 pm

            Throwing?

            I try kicking them but end up like Charlie Brown with Lucy as holder….

  36. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 3:45 pm

    Real estate has been pushed hard the past several weeks.

    • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 5:48 pm

      2nd, I own SRS and it is down while many of the homebuilders are down…what gives…do you have any clues? TIA for any insight.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 5:54 pm

        I would ask Dave- I think he has a handle on which positions can be driven up to keep the sector afloat.

        • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
          June 30, 2009 at 6:39 pm

          Dave, I asked 2nd if he had any clues about SRS and its being lower despite lower housing stocks in general

          and he said “I would ask Dave- I think he has a handle on which positions can be driven up to keep the sector afloat.”

          It is not down as much presently,1423 ET, and this is on low volume, I guess for this time of day. Do you agree? What do you see? I feel housing is not in as great a shape as CNBC remarks even today.

          Chart: I was looking at the gallery view and sharp chart and it looks like SRS fell in early march, which is when the latest bull started…what do you make of this?

          TIA

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          June 30, 2009 at 6:43 pm

          SRS isn’t about home builders, its about REITs – shopping malls, commercial real estate, etc.

          XHB is an ETF that’s more homebuilder focused, but it’s not a 2x. I don’t know of any 2x ETF for homebuilders.

          My feeling is that XHB (and homebuilders in general) are on the cusp of trying to decide if this bear market rally was all just a nice interlude and now it’s back to the cellar, or if the green shoots of recovery really are going to take over. Right now it’s on the fence – probably along with the rest of us.

          EDIT: you might consider how low 10-year rates (very helpful to drive a housing recovery) can exist alongside an actual recovery. Honestly, IMO what will cause housing to recover is an improvement in nominal incomes. Higher nominal incomes means ability to service more debt. And since housing is a debt-financed purchase, increased ability to service debt is critical to higher home prices.

          • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
            June 30, 2009 at 6:58 pm

            Thanks for setting me straight on the SRS ,REITs…vital information in my opinion. I should have known this…just slipped through the cracks.

            My mom is refinancing with 4.99 and she played by the rules…with our fractional reserve system, the way it usually works is people reason inflation is coming…I will spend now to get more.

            How do you think about our present situation with so much debt and our realization of it and the fed’s need to remain solvent at least nominally? The easy answer is we spend less, but if that happens how can our society that is based on consumerism function?

            TIA

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            June 30, 2009 at 8:07 pm

            Back in the 70s, wages and prices were linked, so higher prices (higher CPI) automatically meant higher wages. That’s not true anymore, so now higher prices just means – higher prices. Higher prices for oil won’t help anyone pay their mortgage.

            I think the Fed is mostly focused on keeping the banks alive and maintaining a huge net interest spread for them so the banks can make an absurd amount of money to make up for all of the collapsing assets (real estate debt, credit card debt, etc). In time, if nobody looks at the actual value of the assets they have, it will probably work.

            Where will the banks put all that new money to work? My guess is, not CRE or RRE. More likely, different markets. They have made lots of money trading lately. I’m going to guess that will continue.

            I also think the consumer will continue to pay down debt and save more. That will mean consumer-related businesses will either cut back or go under. This will happen over time, depending on debt load of the business and its ability to react to the new situation.

            Consumers aren’t going away, but a simple equation could be used to describe what will happen:
            change in spending = unemployment rate + savings rate

            We know the unemployment rate is up by 5%, and the savings rate is up by 7.9%.

            Real spending may drop by 7.9% + 5% = 15% at a minimum, once the stimulus effects are finished. You can see these effects in state sales tax revenues.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            June 30, 2009 at 8:27 pm

            Dave,

            Yes, servicing debt is critical. I believe it’s ALL about jobs right now.

            Obama can promise jobs, but aside from the increase in people working for the government the continuing losses show a sorry picture.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            June 30, 2009 at 9:40 pm

            Grym – Agreed, can’t service debt without creating more value than interest on the debt consumes.

            Bullwinkle never did pull a rabbit from his hat….

  37. gc(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 3:45 pm

    i remember reading about china has it’s gas price fuel price hike…
    shouldn’t…

  38. jock(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:02 pm

    Gold has bumped its head against $1000 FOUR times, whereas gains from the start of the decade to $1000 came relatively easily. The anti-gold forces have drawn their line in the sand. Unless they lose control, I think we’re stuck~! Gold only gets interesting if/when it breaks and holds above $1000.

    If we’re headed for deflation, that seems likely. If we’re headed for double digit inflation, that seems likely. But what if our fate is stag-flation: persistent, moderate inflation, low to no growth as far as the eye can see?

    In that case, I can see the anti-gold forces maintaining control, and keeping the yellow metal under $1000.

    There could also be a curious longer-term turn of events. China is now the biggest gold-producing country, stealthily accumulating reserves. Russia wants to regain its former glory as lead gold producer (as it was in 1849). Among oligarchs, getting into gold mining seems to be “flavor of the month”.)

    Both countries are talking about a role for gold in future international trade, perhaps alongside IMF Special drawing rights, baskets of currencies, etc.

    If this gradually comes into being, would China and Russia want to put official gold on their books at the current US rate of $42/oz.? NO. They’d want to book it at market prices.

    Who would benefit from this? Not only Russia, China and gold investors – UNCLE SAM would – to the extent his “world’s largest gold” holdings at Fort Knox are really there, that is. The value of these holdings would increase by 24 times.

    So, if and when an eventual de-throning of the US$ looks inevitable, maybe the US would hop on board, cease his anti-gold market intervention, and proclaim, “I’m going to be SOLVENT again. God bless the yellow metal!”

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 4:24 pm

      “Gold only gets interesting if/when it breaks and holds above $1000.

      If we’re headed for deflation, that seems likely. If we’re headed for double digit inflation, that seems likely. But what if our fate is stag-flation: persistent, moderate inflation, low to no growth as far as the eye can see? “

      I’m not quite sure I could support an argument for how gold would increase in value over the dollar in a deflationary environment. I would think the opposite would be the case.

      As for stagflation, doesn’t the standard cure usually involve much higher rates?

      • jock(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 4:34 pm

        Pookie –

        Gold was the best performing asset in the great depression – the world’s largest ever bout with deflation. You might reply, “ah, but the price of gold was fixed then, while all other prices declined. Now the price of gold is not fixed.”

        From what I’ve read, people during the depression expected the price of gold even to rise. And given the unprecedented worldwide money printing we are experiencing, I think the millenia-old, pro-gold emotions in the parts of the world recently gaining riches (China, Russia, India, Middle East) would come to the fore.

        Of course, history never repeats, it just “rhymes”. And thinking about such macro changes is mostly speculation. Still, I think gold would do better than “trashed cash” in a future deflation. Who knows if I’m right. The benefit of such speculation is mostly in stretching your mind to encompass various possible scenarios. Only the evolving charts will tell us the truth …

  39. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:10 pm

    Adjusting some inverse straddle/strangle legs in UNG

    1. Cover JUL 17 short call @ .10 cents
    2. Sold OCT 17 short calls @ 1.20 to reestablish call side hedge
    2. Roll JUL 15 short puts to OCT 15 for .70 credit
    3. Close JUL 14 short puts for small gain

    Basically what happened is that since UNG has been declining, the short calls are gaining and I bought back the JUL 17 short call for .10 cents or nearly a 100% gain. Once a short leg (put or call) loses most of its premium (>65%) it is no longer an effective hedge so you may as well take the money and run.

    I’m exiting the JUL 14 short puts because I still have a small profit that I’d like to keep but I am not confident 14 will hold through expiration – so take the money and run.

    I’m rolling the JUL 15 short puts to October because it’s quickly losing value and I don’t want to be assigned at 15 at this point. Note that you can almost always roll puts or calls for net credits by adjusting strikes and/or expiration period.

    I’m still holding JUL 13 short puts and OCT 18 short calls and ideally the JUL 13 short puts expire worthless at which time I will replace them with AUG, SEP, or OCT short puts at a strike to be determined later.

  40. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:12 pm

    Dumped the last of naked short puts for small profit. Always looking to get back in however, so hopefully GLD will become quite oversold at which time I’ll start building another unhedged long position

  41. mntinhi(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:14 pm

    1) Central banks use gold to manipulate price of gold.
    2) Central banks will use the point of resistance,whatever that point might be in time,to hold price down.
    3) They need the physical gold to hold down price, inorder to keep their currency up.
    4) False flag
    5) All CBs are holding on to power by keeping the price of gold down, it is in all their self-interest to hold the price of gold down, all nations are printing money.
    6) Only by manipulation can the banks or countries have it both ways, buy gold and used some of it to keep the price down.

    Just an opinion, I did go grocery shopping this weekend and food seems awfully high.

  42. ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:14 pm

    Convergence of upward trend line & 200 DMA mark crucial support area.

    TBT chart: http://chart.ly/56bm7q

  43. David(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:26 pm

    It seems like my yesterday’s feeling about UNG breaking through its support at $14 today because every successive attempt of UNG to rise above $14 was weaker and weaker turned out to be correct. This is yet another confirmation of the TA observation that every time a support level gets tested, it gets weaker — I’ll make sure to watch out for such events in the future. I think buying UNG now is a bit premature — after falling through the strong support at $14, it should at least test $13.

    As for the broad market, it looks like some people on this board are beginning to feel that the current dip should bought. As I wrote yesterday, I think this is the popular opinion now, and this makes me feel that the pullback, when it comes, will be bigger than people expect (so as to shake out all those who bought the early stages of the dip).

  44. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:29 pm

    It recently occured to me that since the recent versions of Waxman-Markey Carbon legislation seek to levy the steepest taxes on upstream refiners, the recent bull run in oil may be a response to the changes in the bill which previously sought to levy higher taxes downstream (utilities,etc.)

    In other words, since the upstream refining production will be heavily taxed (within the current version of Waxman-Markey), the oil market is pricing in those carbon tax costs into the NYMEX Crude Oil price. The extra taxes will be levied in the total cost at the pipe in Cushing (rather than further downstream) thus there may be some extra perceived value in the long end of the crude oil curve.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 5:03 pm

      I wonder what effect the outcome will have when they begin to realize the a) economic stifle or b) inflationary effect the new energy taxes will have.

      Are these taxes scheduled for levy prior to a) economic recovery, or b) in response to recovery?

      • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 5:29 pm

        To my knowledge the cap-and-trade/taxes wouldn’t be implemented until 2012. However, I think nearer term prices could be rising due to the storage arbitrage trade. I.E. traders buying 2011 futures and selling 2012 to capture the spread. This could be causing the upward parallel shift in forward oil prices……

  45. ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:33 pm

    Here’s a chart of MHLD that I posted prior to the market open today. Insiders have been strong buyers recently.

    http://chart.ly/zms6xy

  46. Seamus(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:45 pm

    Since there are a lot of comments on gold, the following is taken from a Market Edge Weekly report last Friday:

    “Gold has been receiving a fair amount of play in the financial media lately with many observers debating its future direction. Currently, persuasive fundamental cases can be made both for and against gold. At times when there are valid arguments for the bulls and the bears alike, technical tools can be extremely helpful in determining an investment strategy.

    In a nutshell, fundamental analysis lets you know what people are saying. Technical analysis lets you know how people are actually voting with their investment dollars. Both schools of analysis are important to making investment decisions. If forced to pick just one, this writer prefers technical analysis because sharing your viewpoint is one thing, where you put your money is more telling. Fortunately, investors don’t have to choose. Investors have the luxury of combining both branches of analysis to maximize profit potential.

    While the fundamentals are split when it comes to gold, the technicals offer an unequivocal picture. The charts depict a double top for gold. The first top was made in late February at $993 an ounce. The second top occurred on June 1 at $987 an ounce. Gold now trades near $940 an ounce. Thus, regardless of whether one is a bull or a bear on the fundamental arguments, the course of action is clear.

    From a technical perspective, one would not want to go long gold unless and until it can breakout above the double top at $990, the price area which it has been unable to surpass in more than year. Allowing for the obsession that markets have with hitting round numbers, add $10 to the double top area of $990. Disciples of technical analysis would want to go long gold if and only if the precious metal closes above $1000 an ounce. At the same time, that level of voting with investment dollars would be reason for bears to cover short positions, if any. Under the same reasoning, gold would have to break under $750 an ounce to make a convincing bearish case.

    Until one of these two events occur, we will continue to have a range bound commodity indicating that neither the bullish case nor the bearish case has been adopted by the market.”

  47. mntinhi(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    Yahoo! Finance HomeInvestingYour MoneyFinance News & CommentMy Portfolios View my portfolios

    Create Portfolio

    Financial NewsMarket NewsIndustry NewsComment & AnalysisMoney WeeklyHot topics:Market MoversNewspaper TipsDirector Dealing TradesSector MoversGet share price quote UK Ireland All Markets USA Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland | Search Finance Commodities
    Tuesday June 30, 02:24 PM
    ECB-Gold reserves down by 96 mln euros in wk
    FRANKFURT, June 30 (Reuters) – Gold and gold receivables held by euro zone central banks fell by 96 million euros ($136 million) to 240.629 billion euros in the week ending June 26, the European Central Bank said on Tuesday.

    http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/30062009/323/ecb-gold-rese
    Some central banks are selling gold, price manipulation?

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 5:02 pm

      “Some central banks are selling gold, price manipulation?”

      Perhaps they are simply paying their debts in gold because their creditors are demanding something other than paper?

      • FranSix(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 6:04 pm

        If you will recall, Russia was said to be dishoarding its gold in order to defend the ruble. This turned out to be false, but it was a matter of truth that Russia was in dire straights over its currency. But, as it turns out, it was selling on behalf of the UK, as it came very near to a major meltdown in its bond market during the crash. But we have no confirmation that UK gold supplies were used to mitigate a currency or a bond rout. John Embry maintains that coin melt from the U.S. wound up on the Dubai gold exchange, so physical is in play.

        Very likely some dishoarding is occurring through the Eurozone as ‘somebody’ is definitely defending their currency from collapse.

  48. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    does it stand to reason that corn feed will be in greater demand ? Tapioca, cassava and palm kernel are substitutes, but don’t carry the same protein… so, maybe SEED would benefit ??

  49. SiO2(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 6:03 pm

    Brazil’s Bradesco (BBD on the NYSE) pockets over $1B on the largest IPO of the year: VisaNet in Brazil. BBD’s all time high: $24.60. Current price: $14.73.
    http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/06/worlds

    And they still keep 27% of the shares.

  50. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 6:04 pm

    Bloomberg aired “Bloomberg Surveillance” live from the lower Manhattan courthouse for Bernard Madoff’s sentencing.

    Featured interviews include:

    Bill Singer – Partner with law firm Stark & Stark on the uncovering of Madoff’s co-conspirators

    Alan Ellis – Criminal defense attorney and co-author of the “Federal Prison Guidebook” on Madoff’s sentence.

    David Margolick – A contributing editor at Vanity Fair on his article, “Did the Madoff Sons Know?”

    You might find these interviews of interest:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/podcast/surveilla

  51. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 6:17 pm

    The SNL skit depicting George Soros as a rapacious capitalist does all of us a major disservice in really understanding just what he’s been doing.

    It would be worthwhile to review the article in Wikipedia just what his life is about and some of the facts:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_soros

  52. David(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 6:36 pm

    In case someone missed it, I highly recommend reading the following “Outside the Box” special from John Mauldin:

    http://tinyurl.com/l77zvq

    where Neil Howe shows how the mentality of the next 20 years in USA (the fourth phase in an 80-year cycle) can be predicted from the last three phases (each lasting about 20 years). It suggests that the next 20 years will be characterized by a crisis phase, during which strong governmental control/involvement will be required (we are already seeing it and it will get much stronger) and re-making of the whole society as we know it. I highly recommend reading it for those who expect to be around for the next 20 years. 🙂 2nd_ave, since you like musing about generational differences, this article might be particularly interesting for you.

    Incidentally, from the investment perspective, it fits nicely with what the smart people at the Hussman’s fund are expecting: increasing volatility of economic output that leads to decreasing P/E multiples on stocks (see http://tinyurl.com/nn4ro9).

    The conclusion I made from these two articles is that I should really try to diversify away from stocks into pure commodities, mostly gold. As Bill mentioned, gold performs poorly when economic output grows faster than the money supply (since in this case it is better to invest in stocks of economically sensitive companies) and performs very well in the opposite case (which we are having now and will have for years to come, since capacity utilization is at record lows and any real expansion of economic output will require capacity utilization to increase significantly).

    As for stocks, the only way to make money in them is to trade them. The reason the stock market got to the P/E multiple of 8 in 1982 is because the stocks traded in a sideways range during the 70’s while the company earnings kept growing. We may have the same situation now — stocks trading sideways for the next 10 years while the economy will slowly be expanding. So instead of staying away from stocks completely, the best strategy might be to buy stocks only during a deeply oversold market and sell them when the oversold condition dissipates. That’s what I am planning to do (with solid company stocks and with gold) for the next 10 years. 🙂

    • Rich(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 7:41 pm

      Thank you David. Good Read.

  53. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 6:45 pm

    financial blog on ‘seeking alpha’… about their product, ‘ gtca ‘… I can’t paste here, but if someone can, its a trip….

  54. JimG(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 6:55 pm

    NYSE Regulation team has announced the Decommissioning of the Daily Program Trading Report (DPTR)

    http://tinyurl.com/myud48

    If you want to call and complain…

    Robert Airo, Senior Vice President, NYSE Euronext at (212) 656-5663 or
    Aleksandra Radakovic, Vice President, NYSE Regulation at (212) 656-4144

  55. tbar(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 7:16 pm

    looks like a sell based on trendlines and the hs top, but who knows with the way these markets have been. The usd seems to have found support per the long term chart I use so maybe the tse chart is correct. A summer correction ?

  56. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 7:21 pm

    preannouncements usually means good quaterly earning ahead ‘…… Well, in that case, I hope I bogey the first 3 holes today so I can shoot at least four under on the back side… !!!!

  57. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 8:01 pm

    Wonder what day 1, Q3 brings?

    I’m betting up, cause everyone else is betting down. There appears to be no one to stop the black boxes. Not sure anything changes tomorrow.

    SPX doesn’t look like damaged goods in my amateur eyes.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p22235562359

    night all.

  58. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 8:08 pm

    Looks like the S&P decided to exit near the 920 mark rather than the EOQ target on my road map. Mmmmm…. Next week I expect will be the moment of truth. This chop chop back and forth has gone on too long.

  59. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 8:14 pm

    So although today POG was down 10 and GDX was down 3.4%, UXG is up almost 7% on steady price increases the whole day after an initial dip down in the morning. Volume is moderate. I don’t see any news. I wonder what’s up.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 8:37 pm

      UXG had a nice moonshot to the same level on Monday at the close, so this might not be a one-day fluke. Something may indeed be happening. UXG is currently my largest single position, as I have been accumulating it from $6 down to $1, and trading it a little along the way. 🙂 And it wasn’t me accumulating it on Monday and today at the close! :))

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 11:06 pm

        David

        “UXG is currently my largest single position, as I have been accumulating it from $6 down to $1”

        Same here. I made the silly mistake of starting in Sept 2007 @ $6. Wish I would of grabbed a truck load back in Oct 2008 when it hit 0.38.

    • prodisc(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 10:41 pm

      It could be from the addition of UXG to Russell 3000

  60. jock(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 8:51 pm

    Several secular bears are highlighted. Makes it look like ours ain’t over yet:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/monthly-sp500

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 9:19 pm

      Quick! Can you spot on that graph when the FED got control of the money supply?

  61. Milesquare(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 9:21 pm

    with corn reversal today / with crude reversal today

    “Gold can’t rally”

  62. mrking(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 10:10 pm

    Well, today balanced out yesterday. Current positions are holding fine.

    Buy Signals: PFF, EWZ, and XLP
    Sell Signal: SSG

    Note that the 2x inverse funds are all getting sell signals. I hear all of the head and shoulders talk about the big drop coming, but I think more upside will come first. Hope so!

    Bill, hope your shoulder gets well soon.

    MK

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 10:13 pm

      mrking,

      My shoulder is feeling perfect today. Thanks. And your signals appear to be in good shape as well.

      • mrking(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 11:04 pm

        Thank you Bill…glad you are doing better.

        I just play it one day at a time. I hope my signals do help some of your bloggers or at least inspire them to do their own research. One thing I learned early on (the hard way) you must take emotion out of it of the market will destroy your portfolio…

        I am eager to buy into financials, but it is just too early.

        MK

        • Les(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 10:34 am

          Thank you MK.

          A little long overdue reading on chart signals with your buys and sells is a great aid in recognising signs of reversal. Obviously in this tight range bound one needs to take the signals with a grain of caution, as I found out today.

          But I would argue contrary to your assertions that you hope your signals help or at least inspire. I want to be inspired to learn, you know, teach a man to fish …

          What’s your notion of “too early” on financials? The BB’s have tightened up considerably on XLF. Are you awaiting a breakout anytime soon? Or are you thinking fundamentals?

  63. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 10:15 pm

    Wasn’t today expiration day for the NYSE temporary extension of sub-$1 equities?

    http://www.nyse.com/press/1235647172819.html

  64. bankchamp(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 11:10 pm

    Here is the chart I’ve been watching of GLD. I has clearly broken down through moving average support lines but remains above the downtrend line.

    The Accumulation/Distribution line has also turned flat.

    http://tinyurl.com/npctdx

    Mark

  65. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 11:12 pm

    I sent you an email, but haven’t heard back. I’m ready to settle the bet.

  66. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 30, 2009 at 11:21 pm

    How many times in the past year has it paid off to wait? What if you had exited the market at 1500, and done nothing since, apart from read the daily headlines?

    Waiting is hard work (albeit of a very different nature).

    I’ve traded almost every day the past two months, and all I really have to show for it is an increase in sleep debt along with some guilt over lack of time spent with my family. To add insult to injury, adding up a string of minor losses puts me down almost 2% since mid-May. Is there a rat race for traders?

    I’m going to try trading the forest in place of the trees. Taking the minimalist approach. I’m guessing I’ll be happier- hopefully more successful. We’ll see.

    100% cash. And headed for the trail instead of the Nikkei 😉

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      June 30, 2009 at 11:23 pm

      2nd – “100% cash. And headed for the trail instead of the Nikkei ;)”

      Enjoy! You’ve earned it. And I’m about this far: > < , from joining you in taking a hiatus. This is gruelling, debilitating work (Bill, I don’t know how you’ve done it all these years). These markets seem to be at a juncture where making any sort of commitment, one way or the other, in anything, is quite pointless. I have, literally, gone from having a clear vision in December ’08, which worked out as I thought, to having ABSOLUTELY no clue what the next 6 months hold in store for us.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        June 30, 2009 at 11:33 pm

        Hmm, you guys make some good points. Trading in a trendless market, where only HB&B knows which lucky sector will receive the rotation in, is a recipe for losing money. Something to think about.

        • David(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 12:18 am

          The way I addressed my desire to trade is by opening some short positions a month ago and deciding not to open any more long positions until the stocks become oversold. In addition, I sold some of my long positions and moved to cash about 1/5 of my portfolio, so as to be able to buy something once the bargains arrive.

          Now if the market keeps moving higher, my portfolio will slowly grow (as I am net long), so this thought should help me to avoid chasing the prices and entering new long positions. On the other hand, if the market moves down, I will be gradually closing my short positions, which should take care of my urge to do “something.” Only after I close my short positions, I will gradually start deploying my free cash by buying some bargains. I am really determined not to be a “sucker” this time and not “throw in a towel” in the waiting game against the seemingly overdone market rally in the face of some very difficult economic conditions.

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            July 1, 2009 at 1:36 am

            2nd/Dave/Mac/David- Glad to see I’m not alone…For the past month I’ve been buying counter-trend stocks looking for a 5-8% gains. This has worked fairly well, but takes a lot of time and effort. If I get trapped (SLW/AUY), no problem as all of these positions fairly small and still about 70% cash. So I’m only cashing winners (TBT, KGC, UNG, etc) while I wait on the others.

            So right now it’s back to the same…TBT, SLW, AUY, KGC, UNG, ERX. I expect to cash ERX tomorrow (currently +3.43%) and perhaps UNG. AUY/KGC is a wash and SLW is down 7.28%. All positions sizes about equal. I’m looking a little further down field with TBT.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 2:23 am

      Very wise 2nd.
      I’ve been doing essentially nothing for quite a while then I thought I would try a few trades, I’ll admit forcing some.
      I’ve been treading water with my gains and loses washing each other out and my cautiousness cutting my longs short on the first sign of trouble for limited gains. Example: my UNG trade the other day…sold at 14.40 whatever and it continued to 14.79 or so. I haven’t opened any position more than 2% of my port so both gains and losses have been small. Why screw with it? The only winner is Roger Riney. Maybe the best thing to do is enter some real stink bids in the devil’s playhouse (666) and perhaps some put strategies, then go hiking, biking, boating, communing with nature, which is easy since that’s where I live. If we are seeing this then I imagine it’s what the low volume is about and everyone else will also figure it out and the HB&B boys can play with each other for pennies until they tire of one another and we get the correction that is inevitable.

      Still waiting for a trend. One way or the other, but this sideways stuff is for the birds. I can make more $$$ doing other things besides sitting in this comfy chair half asleep-half watching screens with flashing lights. Geez, my HSA account is making more passively than I have purposely.

      I will say however, CHSCP (the one I sent you for the kid’s accounts) has done better than ever but looks due for a correction as well.

      And we’re on the west coast….4 AM to do nothing sucks. I’d rather sleep.
      I need to take David’s sleep trading course.

      • MarkW(118083 comments)-
        July 1, 2009 at 2:37 am

        Craig-“I will say however, CHSCP (the one I sent you for the kid’s accounts)”

        Hey, this could be fun. Instead of stock picks how ’bout just sending my kids cash every month. Kinda like the TV thing. I can send you pictures and funny stories every month. No promises on my end the money actually goes to them, but hey, it can be like a second family for you!!

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          July 1, 2009 at 3:04 am

          LOL! One family is enough for me….you’d do better with the pick. When I mentioned it it was approx. $25.25 earning roughly 7% div ($2.00 annual, $.50 quarter) and went to $27. Recently pulled back to $26.21, today $26.50 or so.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      July 1, 2009 at 11:58 am
  67. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 2:31 am

    Keeping a close eye on these tomorrow…

  68. baz22(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:02 am

    at that level…. its just too much like the drubbing CELG got a couple of months ago… same people….same action… If the market is bad tomorrow, I will be buying at $ 27.50….

  69. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 3:09 am

    Has anyone heard of Shiller’s short and long individual home price ETF’s: UMM (Up major market) and DMM (down major market)? This sounds whacked! Man, oh man, do investors need to return to the basics of investing – you know: savings, interest, dividends, compounding, value, growth, risk, etc. I hate to think how much malinvestment is being made in these kinds of speciality ETFs and what a huge drain it is on the economy.

    http://tinyurl.com/m4dnsk (Shiller on Bloomberg)

  70. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 4:43 am

    Oil rises above $70 as US crude inventories drop- AP
    Oil prices rose above $70 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as a drop in U.S. crude inventories suggested demand may be picking up.

  71. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 5:46 am

    Consolidation continues. The new expected daily range is between 915-935 as can be seen on the 1-mo/60-min and 2-mo/60-min charts. The 8-month/daily chart shows that the SPX is currently above the 20-day MA. For a head & shoulders (H&S) pattern to qualify, the right shoulder must be a lower high and the neckline break must be confirmed. Leave your mind open to the possibility that we may not even be forming a H&S pattern. The market remains ‘neutral’.

    I’ve also added the SPRD select sector charts, and collectively as a whole, they support my neutral rating on the market. The sectors are not moving in tandem. The materials and energy sectors may be forming small bear flags. Health care, tech, and utilities are in ascending channels. Cons. discretionary, cons. staples, financials, and industrials are in neutral ranges.

    http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/

  72. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 1, 2009 at 7:40 am

    “Finally, on the bearish side, the European indices ($DAX, $CAC, $FTSE) are all forming bear flags. The 20-day MA served as the principal support level for all three, but they have now turned into resistance.The Asian markets are still level.”

    (note 20dma about to cross under the 50dma for the three European bourses)

    http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/

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