Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Tues., May 5, 2009

[6:16am ET] From Briefing.com, here are the different ratings used for 129 investment research firms. The SEC which has brought in standards like XML should also set a standard for ratings from these firms so the public can properly compare.

If it were up to me, I’d like to see both series for every stock that is rated:
Market Outperform, Market Perform, Market Underperform
Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, Sector Underperform

Then I’d like to see a single graph showing performance against the market and sector after each rating change for each stock and for all the stocks these firms cover.

What we have today is a joke. It’s not professional. They ought to clean up their act, and the SEC ought to make them do it.

AmTech Research
– Buy, Hold, Neutral, Sell
Ardour Capital
– Buy, Accumulate, Hold, Reduce, Sell
Argus
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Auriga U.S.A
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Avian
– Positive, Neutral, Negative
Avondale
– Mkt Outperform, Mkt Perform, Mkt Underperform
B. Riley & Co
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Banc of America Sec
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Barclays Capital
– Overweight, Equal Weight, Underweight
Barrington Research
– Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
BB&T Capital Mkts
– Buy, Hold, Underweight
Bear Stearns
– Outperform, Peer Perform, Underperform
Benchmark
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Bernstein
– Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
BMO Capital Markets
– Outperform, Market Perform, Underperform, Spec Investment, No Rating at Time
Boenning & Scattergood
– Outperform, Neutral, Sell
Brean Murray
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Broadpoint Capital
– Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Underperform, Sell
Buckingham Research
– Strong Buy, Accumulate, Neutral, Underperform
BWS Financial
– Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell
C.K. Cooper
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Calyon Securities
– Buy, Add, Hold, Neutral, Reduce, Sell
Canaccord Adams
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Cantor Fitzgerald
– Buy, Hold, Sell
CapitalOne southcoast
– Strong Buy, Add, Neutral, Reduce
Caris & Company
– Buy, Above Average, Average, Below Average, Sell, Hold
Charter Equity
– Strong Buy, Buy, Mkt Perform, Mkt Underperform
CIBC Wrld Mkts
– Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, Sector Underperform
Citigroup
– Buy, Hold, Sell
CL King
– Strong Buy, Accumulate, Neutral, Underperform
Cleveland Research
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Collins Stewart
– Buy, Market Perform, Hold, Underperform, Sell
Cowen & Co
– Strong Buy, Outperform, Neutral, Mkt Perform, Underperform
Credit Suisse
– Outperform, Neutral, Underperform
Cross Research
– Buy, Hold, Sell
DA Davidson
– Buy, Neutral, Underperform
Dahlman Rose
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Davenport
– Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Reduce/Sell
Dawson James
– Speculative Buy, Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Sell, Sell Short
Deutsche Securities
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Dougherty & Company
– Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Sell
Edward Jones
– Buy, Hold, Sell
FBR Capital Markets
– Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
Feltl & Co.
– Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell
Ferris Baker Watts
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
First Analysis Sec
– Overweight, Equal-Weight, Underweight
Fortis Bank
– Strong Buy, Buy, Accumulate, Hold, Reduce, Sell
Fox Pitt
– Outperform, In Line, Underperform
FTN Equity Capital
– Trading Buy, Buy, Neutral, Sell, Trading Sell
GARP Research
– Buy, Neutral, Avoid
Global Crown Capital
– Trading Buy, Trading Sell, Overweight, Neutral, Underweight
Global Hunter Securities
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Goldman Sachs
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Hapoalim
– Outperform, Neutral, Underperform
Henley & Company
– Buy, Speculative Buy, Neutral, Sell
Hilliard Lyons
– Buy, Long-term Buy, Neutral, Underperform
Howard Weil
– Market Outperform, Market Perform, Market Underperform
HSBC Securities
– Overweight, Neutral, Underweight
Jackson Securities
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Janco Partners
– Buy, Accumulate, Mkt Perform, Sell
Janney Mntgmy Scott
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Jefferies & Co
– Buy, Hold, Underperform, Sell
Jesup & Lamont
– Buy, Hold, Sell
JMP Securities
– Mkt Outperform, Mkt Perform, Mkt Underperform
Johnson Rice
– Overweight, Equal Weight, Underweight
JP Morgan
– Overweight, Neutral, Underweight
Kaufman Bros
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Keefe Bruyette
– Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
Kevin Dann
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
KeyBanc Capital Mkts
– Aggressive Buy, Buy, Hold, Underweight, Sell
Ladenburg Thalmann
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Lazard Capital Mkts
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Leerink Swann
– Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
Longbow
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Matrix Research
– Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell, Strong Sell
Maxim Group
– Buy, Hold, Sell
McAdams Wright Ragen
– Buy, Hold, Sell
MDB Capital Group
– Buy, Neutral, Hold, Sell
Merrill Lynch
– Buy, Neutral, Underperform
Merriman Curhan Ford
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
MKM Partners
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Morgan Joseph
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Morgan Keegan
– Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
Morgan Stanley
– Overweight, Equal-Weight, Underweight
Natixis Bleichroeder
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Needham
– Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Underperform
Next Generation
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Noble Financial
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Northland Securities
– Outperform, Market Perform, Under Perform
Oppenheimer
– Outperform, Perform, Underperform
Oscar Gruss
– Buy, Hold, Reduce
Pacific Crest
– Strong Buy, Buy, Outperform, Sector Perform, Neutral, Avoid
Pacific Growth Equities
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Pali Research
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Piper Jaffray
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Punk, Ziegel & Co
– Buy, Accumulate, Mkt Perform, Sell
Raymond James
– Strong Buy, Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
RBC Capital Mkts
– Top Pick, Outperform, Sector Perform, Underperform
RBC Dain Rauscher
– Top Pick, Outperform, Sector Perform, Underperform
Robert W. Baird
– Outperform, Neutral, Underperform
Rochdale Securities
– Buy, Hold, Neutral, Sell
Rodman & Renshaw
– Mkt Outperform, Mkt Perform, Mkt Underperform, Under Review
Roth Capital
– Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Hold, Sell
Sandler O’Neill
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Scotia Capital
– Sector Outperform, Sector Perform, Sector Underperform
SMH Capital
– Buy, Accumulate, Neutral, Reduce, Sell, Short
Soleil
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Standard & Poors
– Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell, Strong Sell
Standpoint
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Stanford Research
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Stephens Inc
– Overweight, Equal-Weight, Underweight
Sterne Agee
– Buy, Neutral, Sell
Stifel Nicolaus
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey
– Buy, Neutral, Reduce, Underweight
Susquehanna Financial
– Positive, Neutral, Negative
ThinkEquity
– Buy, Accumulate, Source of Funds, Sell
Thomas Weisel
– Overweight, Market Weight, Underweight
UBS
– Buy, Neutral, Reduce, Sell
Utendahl
– Over-weight, Equal-Weight, Under-weight
Wachovia
– Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
Wall Street Access
– Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Reduce, Sell
Wasserman & Associates
– Buy, Sector Outperform, Hold, Sector Perform, Sell, Sector Underperform
Wedbush Morgan
– Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell
William Blair
– Outperform, Mkt Perform, Underperform
WR Hambrecht
– Buy, Hold, Sell
Wunderlich
– Accumulate, Buy, Hold, Sell

The fact that conflict of interest with respect to the research opinions of Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) persists in this modern day and age is something we have to continuously filter, but there is no excuse for the industry’s lack of standards in producing a rating. Maybe we could start a campaign for the SEC to bring in standards of stock price assessment by these so-called investment research professionals?


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170 Comments

  1. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 10:35 am

    GoldMoney founder and chairman James Turk has written a piece on the history of the Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) gold cartel that we also need to discuss.

    http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_may042009.html

    The implications that the US government and the leading bankers of the US manipulate the price of gold has very important ramifications. It means there are shenanigans going on in other parts of the capital markets, starting with Exchange Traded Funds (ETF).

    Is there no end to the corruption? When do Americans elect an honest government that will enact appropriate securities legislation and put in place an SEC chief regulator of uncompromisable honesty? Is it even possible or does HB&B now run the government, as many of us believe?

    • pulse(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 11:21 am

      Hello to an outstanding group of engaged observers. I have been lurking here for over a year and have gained from the collective wisdom shared on this site.

      I introduce myself to share my observations as they become pertinent to the exchange here. Bill mentions the ongoing price fixing by the HB&B gnomes which dovetailed well with a piece I read last night.

      The reporter/blogger is quite entertaining, but I must caution readers that she is HIGHLY outspoken on issues some would consider controversial. At the same time, she is also wimsical in her presentations and has also contributed greatly to my ongoing education.

      Elaine has discovered a second recently released Federal Reserve document (GATA and others (Turk?) credited her with discovering the first a few months back)
      and freely shares her research on the connections from history which continue to impact our children’s future.

      http://emsnews.wordpress.com/2009/05/05/another-se

      Thank you all for furthering my Pursuit of Happiness – it has not been much fun at all!

      • Freedom57(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 12:14 pm

        pulse,
        Thanks for posting that link. I found the second document, the March, 2009 one by the IMF discussing removal of the limitation on private funding of the IMF quite revealing.

        Here’s the blogger’s take on that discussion:
        “In other words, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the House of Rothschild will now be able to take over the IMF using government debts, cheap government banking loans at ZIRP levels to take over the IMF and then, keep ALL nations CAPTIVE so we have to pay them all a high interest rate on loans they first got from central banks at near-zero percent interest. Wow.”

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 1:32 pm
  2. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 10:51 am

    There was some interesting comments from WSJ readers of the article I reviewed here regarding Timothy Geithner and Goldman Sachs.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124139546243981801

    I think Pres. Obama should, for once if he can, stop talking and start listening. The people are speaking up, demanding action. They expected change.

  3. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 12:25 pm

    Good morning.

    RIMM – Upgraded to Neutral @ JP Morgan

    Downgrades:

    CEO – to Neutral @ JP Morgan
    SLB – to Hold @ Argus

    Price Target Raised:

    RIMM – from $64 to $79 @ Kaufman Bros. Hold

  4. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 12:32 pm

    History is unavoidable, isn’t it?

    We used monetary policy against the first people’s we stole from, the Native Americans, and we have used it in every possible circumstance since.

    For years we have enslaved poor countries with IMF debt that we knew fully well couldn’t pay, knowing fully well debt would work like a charm to steal their physical resources. Loan them more than they have (just like Jefferson did with the Eastern Tribes and the Canadians did with the Hudson Bay Company) and indebt them to the point they would have to pay with land or whatever we were after.

    Lo and behold what is happening NOW to US?

    History goes back MUCH further than the 20th century…..and it at least rhymes.

    “IMF, dirty MF, takes away everything it can get.
    Always making certain that there’s one thing left…
    Keep them on the hook with insupportable debt.”

    “They Call it Democracy” Bruce Cockburn
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68zccrskOqQ

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 12:36 pm

      “Padded with power here they come International loan sharks backed by the guns Of market hungry military profiteers Whose word is a swamp and whose brow is smeared With the blood of the poor”

      Look familiar?

    • pulse(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 1:12 pm

      Craig;

      Last night, after reading the ‘Secret’ memos, the remnant of a slightly misspent youth popped into my head;

      Generals gathered in their masses
      Just like witches at black masses
      Evil minds that plot destruction
      Sorcerer of death’s construction

      I consider these secret agendas an unequivocal indictment of perpetual fraud and limitless greed by these obsessed manipulators.

      We must fight for the freedom we have lost to these psychopathic thieves – a quiet, personal and persistent exercise in discipline. I long for the end of the ‘something for nothing’ mindset which has been aggressively fertilized by the Gnome community.

      The peoples representatives have been compromised, globally. It is past time for a thorough cleansing of the War Pigs.

      • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 1:24 pm

        Ozzy could not have said it better, as a matter of fact Ozzy could not probably have said it period!

        But you did say it and we need to do act on this if we are lovers of Freedom!

        Ron Paul: Freedom is popular.

        Lets hope he is correct!

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 1:37 pm

        “Generals gathered in their masses
        Just like witches at black masses
        Evil minds that plot destruction
        Sorcerer of death’s construction”

        Generals herd the silent masses
        Like black witches flying past us
        Minds evil with instruction;
        Sorcerers bent on self-destruction

        Rewrote it as I see it. I’d say you had a good time back then 😉

  5. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 12:53 pm

    CSCO – Price Target Raised from $18 to $21 @ Jefferies & Co. Buy

  6. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 12:54 pm

    The DNA of central bankers and controlling interests knows of no other policy than inflation, which they have resuscitated (asset prices, CRB) to an extent.

    The price of inflation here has been increased suffering for those least able to bear it, those without assets, for whom the cost of “stuff” (food, health care, housing) will start to rise.

    The consequence (unintended) shows up in my ‘shop’, depression and mental health problems, alcohol and drug abuse.

    The one-word oxymoron for what happened is OVERSIGHT. The stewards of economic policy failed their oversight mission, and the downtrodden get to pay. Sad.

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 2:01 pm

      Ron, I think you’re half right. Inflation will definitely hit commodities – really, anything imported. And health care for whatever reason seems to have a double helping of inflation built into it.

      But rent, I think we’ll get a break on rent. I think asset deflation in housing is not over yet and as a consequence, rents will come down along with real estate prices.

  7. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 1:01 pm

    If you think the economy recovers by 2014, how would you play it?

    Let’s say you have 200k to invest.

    (a) Broad market. In 5 years, the market might reasonably compound at 10% a year, putting the S&P500 back at 1500. Your 200k is now 322k.

    (b) Real estate. Put 200k down on a brand new 450k 2br condo just outside UC Irvine. Assuming rent covers the mortgage/insurance/taxes, how much would you have in 5 years? Compounding at 5% annual appreciation, your condo is now 574k, giving you roughly 322k in equity (the first 5 years of a 30-year loan is pretty much all interest).

    Now of course, there are many details to work out. For instance, it would cost an additional 6% to sell the condo. But those two scenarios offer a starting point for comparison.

    What if returns on real estate in SoCal track/exceed returns in the stock market? Then it’s a no-brainer- your condo is at least 725k after 5 years, and you have 475k in equity. You would have to somehow leverage your returns on the S&P500 (active trading, options, leveraged funds) to match a real estate investment.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 1:06 pm

      It may not cost 6% to sell the condo. Necessity being the mother of invention….there are now many avenues besides realtors in this environment.
      I sold mom’s house w/o a realtor.

      I know a good Escrow guy in So. Cal. not far from Irvine if the need arises.

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 1:07 pm
    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 1:28 pm
      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 1:52 pm

        [“If you think the economy recovers by 2014, how would you play it?”

        I would see a psychiatrist ASAP.]

        Grym, Grym, Grym- Don’t you know the secret to happiness is self-delusion?

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          May 5, 2009 at 4:12 pm

          Well, I guess I was way off base with my knee-jerk reaction. Bernanke has announced this morning, “The will recover a bit later this year.”

          Self-delusion can always get a little boost fro the “pros”. I was going to say that word is usually used in conjunction with a different profession, but decided it is totally appropriate as it stands.

          I liked it better when Gentle Ben was on TV. A bear with a better personality.

    • OT(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 2:32 pm

      Most things I can invest in would return only thousands. I have just stumbled across an opportunity to make millions!

      http://tinyurl.com/3qzuok

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 4:00 pm

      2nd, I’d be weary of putting any money in real estate at this point. Look at Japanese real estate prices after their bust

      http://www.japaninc.com/files/images/mgz-77_subpri

      Couldn’t find a graph on rental rates, but they’re already going down in the US, and if they continue to drop, could get difficult to cover costs of a house. Throw in possibly rising property taxes and interest rates, and it seems like a bit of a gamble, not that anything else isn’t 🙂

      You stated 5% annual compounded gain, but what if it’s a 5% annual compounded loss?

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 4:11 pm

        “You stated 5% annual compounded gain, but what if it’s a 5% annual compounded loss?”

        proudPapa- Well, of course the assumption is that one is looking to invest in a recovering economy.

        But your comment points out one advantage of trading the market v real estate- It’s relatively easy to short the market. Can’t do that with rental property.

        • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
          May 5, 2009 at 4:22 pm

          Compared to trading the market, I’d say the key problem is lack of liquidity. Takes a long time to sell a house and there are a lot of factors that can influence how long it takes. Also, there are more potential hidden costs like possibly needing to replace the furnace the week before you list it, damage from renters, shooting in the neighborhood dropping values, etc.

          Whereas the costs are more easily controlled in trading stocks…

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            May 5, 2009 at 4:31 pm

            Ah…diversification. How about a REIT run by a smart person in the right areas? Or maybe some WY, SSD or Lowes/HomeDepot or CARA 100’s WHR or BDK?
            Some of these pay without needing to find credit worthy renters.

        • Shiva(118083 comments)-
          May 5, 2009 at 4:32 pm

          2nd, i thought de-leveraging was going on :):) I am very wary of real estate. As Mark mentioned in one of his comments few days back, 10+ year time horizon views could pay off (assuming it is cash positive when you get in).

          On a different note, which mutual funds/ETFs you use to play the downside of the market? I cant hold TZA, BGZ for extended periods, so was wondering if you had any interesting mutual fund/ETF picks

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            May 5, 2009 at 4:46 pm

            shiva- Why use bear-market mutual funds when the costs are lower and ease of entry/exit greater with the ETFs?

            Here’s a list from Pro Shares that just keeps growing:

            http://tinyurl.com/2rtvt5

            You already know about the Direxion funds.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            May 5, 2009 at 4:55 pm

            ok, thx for the link, i need to do some analysis on 1:1 index short funds (no ultras for 401k except for quick trades) & keep a few tickers handy.

        • Freedom57(118083 comments)-
          May 5, 2009 at 5:37 pm

          “It’s relatively easy to short the market. Can’t do that with rental property.”

          Very shortly you should be able to hedge residential real estate holdings with Robert Shiller’s new ETFs tied to the Case-Shiller 10-city housing index. I think his IPO auction finishes today.

          http://www.etftrends.com/2009/04/capture-the-resid

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 4:29 pm

        “Couldn’t find a graph on rental rates, but they’re already going down in the US, and if they continue to drop, could get difficult to cover costs of a house. Throw in possibly rising property taxes and interest rates, and it seems like a bit of a gamble, not that anything else isn’t :)”

        This should eventually bring the CPI closer to the deflationary effect which using “owner equivalent rent” does not now show.

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      May 6, 2009 at 12:47 am

      2nd- This should clear everything up for you. http://tinyurl.com/cld7o2

      No charge.

  8. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 1:10 pm

    Doc I remember you remarking that you want to see gold hit $920. What R U thinking if it happens today? Are we testing $1000 again?

    Good Morning all.

    I have an account again and am disgusted to see gas and oil beyond my reach.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 1:55 pm

      “I have an account again and am disgusted to see gas and oil beyond my reach.”

      Les- What makes you think prices won’t swing down again?

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 2:01 pm

        RE:>Les- What makes you think prices won’t swing down again?

        nothing. I just feel like a shopper frustrated by the lack of “bargains” in the aisle…

        edit: speak of the devil! down it comes…

      • dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 2:11 pm

        heres what im thinking:

        1. we’ve seen many a sudden gold rally spike up, consolidate with a slight downward slope before spiking up again and continuing the pattern. even with golds recent jump’s we are only a few dollars higher today than we were yesterday so i see the current move as having some potential but nothing outstanding yet.

        2. the volume on the mining shares was weak for most during this upswing, but the % move up was nice. we would need to see some serious follow through on volume to signal the move up beyond $1000 imho. its not going to happen on this kind of volume.

        3. good to see the Venture Exchange getting some ground, especially old favourites like Miranda. its been so long since the jr’s behaved bullishly i dont know what to think. they still have a loooooog looooog way to get back to anything reasonable. there are many exhausted jr mining investors begging for prices to return to these stocks after years of torture.

        4. good to see the USD falling a bit along w/ bonds, i suspect everyone was so concerned about calling this “bear market” rally’s top that it just kept going to prove everyone wrong once again. most money managers are shy right now imho, mabey too shy if this turns into a crack-up boom. it will break at some point but not until more reluctant people are dragged along.

        5. im getting the feeling that massive dislocaitons will start to take place b/w precious and base metals. alot of money is getting thrown around here and it doesnt always seem to correlate very well. ie: wheat up large, while corn down, then massive reversal’s the next day despite crop problems in both on the horizon…

        6. pork. its usually on my mind because im addicted to it, but i suspect the buy of a lifetime coming up and a cyclical bull market in pork will take place. for all the talk of what the chinese are doing people forget its not gold they want as much as thier main food staple: pork. rice is simply the vehicle to carry the porky juices and fatty run off.

        china cut canada’s pork exports despite very reasonable support that there is no risk at all to contracting swine flu. it shows how unscientific most nations get when things get hairy. it reminds me the futility of the WTO and UN who lack any real teeth when the going gets tough. what is happening right now will decimate the pork industry in north america, especially canada and pork will continue to be in high demand. its more calorically dense than beef because its fat is so prized. (and tasty!)

        problems in pork production are going to make local pork jump in price as entire herds get slaughtered if things get worse. a good case study for prices rising as demand falls, farmers will find it not worth while to have pigs if more nations start cutting us out. watching pork for a longer term move up once the carnage is done and the dust settles.

        7. i was just thinking the only thing more awesome than a flying unicorn is a unicorn with wings made out of bacon.

        8. i have a standing challange to anyone for a few rounds of brazilian jujitsu if and when the HGU breaches $35 in 2009. here’s your chance to choke me and my smug commentary out. just no knee-bar’s, i have a soccer career to maintain!!

        and thats what im thinking for the moment… do you regret asking?? 😉

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          May 5, 2009 at 2:22 pm

          I’m dying laughing….isn’t this smut or porn for a doctor? LOL!
          Wings of bacon….wow. I can see my food fantasies could use some work….
          BBQ, ribs, pulled pork, jerk chicken….mmmmmmm.
          I had rice last night with the juices of the other, other, white meat…..chicken.

          Influenza is quite the tool of livestock fear and loathing, isn’t it?
          Bird flu, swine flu. All the low cost protein choices of the true masses.

        • Les(118083 comments)-
          May 5, 2009 at 2:27 pm

          RE:>and thats what im thinking for the moment… do you regret asking?? 😉

          I was in HK in January, and your talk of pork made me think of the best fluffy melt in your mouth pork buns that I’ve ever tasted yum yum.

          Ok, so was contemplating a couple of speculative calls, but will hold. The fat lady ain’t apparently singing yet.

        • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
          May 5, 2009 at 4:03 pm

          Mmmm, bacon. Fried some up this morning. If I’m ever down east, we should get together to have a bacon fest!

          I remember the Canadian gubermint last year announcing they were going to spend something like $25M of taxpayers money to cull the swine herd, as input costs were too high an pork prices too low.

          Restated another way:

          Take tax payers money to try and induce higher consumer prices.

          Gotta love it.

          At any rate, I got me some pork tenderloin a week ago for $3/pound, which is dirt cheap around where I live (last year I was paying $5/pound).

    • cuvo(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 2:10 pm

      Hm… Check out
      4/29 Adrian Douglas – BIG MONEY MOVING INTO COMEX GOLD & SILVER CALL OPTIONS
      http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=7787

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 2:21 pm

        read it Cuvo

        contemplating some speculative buy call options on GLD and SLW.

  9. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    Yamana and/or SLW are trying to break out above their previous levels.

  10. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    Bill I totally agree, it would really provide a way for analysts who were good to stand out from the crowd. And the analysts who were idiots, they would be exposed to the world. One wonders how well Mr Cramer would fare. I think some of his picks last year (Downey Savings and Loan, Bear Sterns come to mind) would hurt him a little.

    Perhaps we don’t need to wait for the SEC. A website that had analysts recommendations, performance, track records, and current ratings would generate a fair bit of traffic, if only from the analysts themselves strictly out of vanity.

    I think the site would cause a bit of a stir.

  11. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 1:41 pm

    Anyone else?

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 1:46 pm

      no. it is working for me

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 1:53 pm

        Back up. It was down for about 5 minutes for me.

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 2:00 pm

        its working for me as well

  12. London(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    here in this stock mid cap following earnings, maybe quick 50% gainer.

    BWY

  13. davelee(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:02 pm

    I’ve been burying my head in the same regarding the merger/take-over of Western Goldfields by New Gold. Western Goldfields has been a often discussed miner here. Does anyone have opinions on the new entity? (i.e. Quality of reserves, cost / ounce, etc?)

    I’m leaning towards not holding anything I don’t understand, thus will be looking for a price to reduce/eliminate my position in WGW/WGI.

    Thanks in advance.

    • ChrisM(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 2:45 pm

      I’m long both – WGW because these guys know how to run a mine as a business (they’re ex Barrick I think) and NGD because I think there’s an empire building exercise going on here (bit like Yamana), consolidating juniors before the majors start scooping them up.
      Small positions, as I wouldn’t classify either as low risk (but how do you know what’s risky these days beyond what’s in your sock drawer).
      If you looked at my record you’ll probably want to use this as a contrary indicator.

    • cheapy(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 7:18 pm

      I think the reality is that WGW is getting NGD on the very cheap when its all said and done, supplying their cash and cash flow to give NGD the funds needed for New Afton, from the looks of it.

  14. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:02 pm

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 2:19 pm

      Taking the cash.

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 2:28 pm

        2nd- Keep an eye on CHK. 10M shares traded. Might have just shaken out the weak hands. INTRA high was 22.09.

  15. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    I have Grym’s bedtime. I’m about done with everything, including armed revolution, after about 9:30 pm. The kids can, like I used to be able to, stay up to all hours no matter where they are.

    It is a safe bet that any gathering of the powerful won’t happen in the streets, it will happen like it did yesterday, at a pizza place or some gathering like DOHA or the G7-G10, depending on who they’re screwing that particular day.

    When any of us see anyone gathered in the streets, supporting our particular side of an argument or not, we should support them in full. Regardless of where they are, they ARE US and they are NOT THEM. We know who THEM is.
    There are few of them and many of us.

    No more silly comments about the French, environmentalists or college students. They are willing to stay up longer then I can and they have nothing to lose. The least we can do is realize they are US in our youth, full of idealism and ready to change the world for the better.

    We have a common enemy and it isn’t US, it’s THEM. THEY do react when they see people gathered in the streets. They do react when there are bus tours of their homes and jobs. Anyone who get’s in their face is a friend of ours.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 4:15 pm

      Amen to that!

  16. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:05 pm

    More on the RIMM Upgrade – Upgraded at JPMorgan to Neutral from Underweight following yesterday’s investor day. Believe average sales prices will not decline significantly despite increasing competition. Also see potential decline in R&D expenses per device. Note that high unemployment will likely temper enterprise net adds and replacement rates. Price target raised to $74 from $40.

    RIMM – numbers raised at Merrill/BofA to $100. Estimates also raised, following an upbeat analyst meeting. Buy rating.

    WAG – numbers increased at Merrill/BofA to $35. Estimates also boosted, to reflect higher expected sales growth. Buy rating.

  17. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:10 pm

  18. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    I’m establishing an oversized position in SLM (Sallie Mae). I highly doubt the administration will neglect the student loan market. I see this back up to $15 by the fall.

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 4:31 pm

      Added more SLM at 5.89.

  19. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:25 pm

    Keeping an eye on UUP…creeping up.

    Dave may get his shot at gas, oil and other hard stuff.

  20. Fazeli(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:43 pm

    RIMM Jan 2010 PUT @ $55 is trading at ~ $6.00 when the underlying security’s price is at $74.50!

    Is this an abnormally high premium for a $20 gap over 8 months?

  21. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    Saw C going up didn’t buy it. It crashed. Saw SIRI going up nicely, didn’t buy it, it crashed. This market is suspect and it’s a very hard market to daytrade in (right now).

    Hey you guys…Does anyone know if you can run multiple monitors off of one PC? How?

    • Fazeli(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 2:50 pm

      Shark:

      Dual monitor is rather easy if your video card (either add-in card, or built right into your motherboard) has two DVI, VGA, HDMI, or DisplayPort ports. Then it’s just a matter of plugging them in and configuring Windows to use both monitors (this step is quite easy).

      I believe DisplayPort (a very new technology) lets you daisy chain monitors, so you wouldn’t even need two ports. I’ve never done this though, so I’m not sure how it’s configured / supported in Windows.

      Running more than 2 monitors requires additional hardware, such as multiple video cards. There are numerous tutorials on the web to configure a multi-monitor workstation if you need more than 2 monitors.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 2:52 pm

      put a graphics card that supports dual monitor display sharkie.

      Nvidia makes good stuff.

      I have IB on one screen so I can see volume and price and can trade without closing/moving windows.

      another big screen so that I can see real time charts from across the apartment.

  22. London(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:51 pm

    reversal possibility in MYGN due to shorts in this stock..

  23. sandy(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:52 pm

    Any suggestions on pork plays ?

    • jock(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 3:24 pm

      Not Harleys, but a leading Chinese pork producer with 20008 revenues of $539M, net income of $31M.

      WSJ reported recently that China represents fully half the global market for pork.

      Google Finance writes:

      its product line included over 314 meat products, including chilled pork, frozen pork and prepared meats, and over 20 vegetable and fruit products, that are sold on a wholesale basis and on a retail basis through an exclusive network of showcase stores, network stores and supermarket counters.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 3:29 pm

      “Any suggestions on pork plays ?”

      SFD comes to mind.

    • Ross(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 4:14 pm

      Pork and beef play. There is an ETF, COW. It gives you a virtual herd but like all ETF’s, there is some decay. It was recommended by Jeff Saut, one of the good guys at Raymond James.

  24. OldGoat(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 2:54 pm

    I’d add that when I hooked up a second, external monitor to my laptop recently, it put a tremendous drag on performance. YMMD. ~OG

  25. tango6(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    at 8.52

  26. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    Fazelli covers it quite nicely as does Les. Another option is a larger screen to begin with. Do the math and figure square inches of viewable space. One large monitor, depending on it’s size, will be more space/less outlay as monitors and big screen LCD’s with pc inputs are competitive and you don’t need more video card or memory. Be aware, some computer manufacturers use integrated video cards with intermingled memory use. A dedicated video card with sufficient memory can be spendy. Then add the additional monitor cost.
    Or you can just buy the big monitor.

    • Fazeli(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 3:07 pm

      I run a 30″ 2560×1600 off DisplayPort from my laptop which runs 1440×900 on an nVidia Quadro NVS 160M with 256 MB of dedicated memory (in a Dell Latitude 6400).

      I can say that the 30″ definitely taps out the video card and there are mild delays with screen refresh in certain applications. Still, I find it to be a great combination with a huge amount of real-estate for what I do (software development), and allows me to also run my IB window(s) to keep an eye on the market.

  27. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:06 pm

    Les- They’re dumping NGas faster than last night’s date. I can’t figure out who the new girl is, but I still like NGas.

  28. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:07 pm

    I dont see panic selling yet. Let’s see how the markets do after lunch.

  29. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:12 pm

    Love this matchup.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/24596546

    EDIT: Its over and the next person is asking Ben questions

  30. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    ……..

  31. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:27 pm

  32. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:32 pm

  33. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:35 pm

    So the news that possibly 25 of the 19 banks (joke) may need to raise more capital. However we rallied despite this possibility.

    So why would prices pull back after the news simply confirms the pre-empt?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 3:46 pm

      NYUGrad- Good point. Maybe the banks ‘base’ here until the next quarterly earnings releases. Which once again beat expectations. If I were holding bank stocks right now, and the order flow from J6P was positive, I would just smile to myself and keep the game going. Who knows how high J6P can take it?

  34. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    What if you just hold through the entire cycle? 20-30-60-180? Where’s NGas going from here- probably to the 5-6 range. I would keep position size reasonable, to allow you to add should NGas drop to 2. But keep some on the shelf.

  35. Freedom57(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 4:26 pm

    Anyone interested in market seasonality factors might want to tune into BNN in about 5 minutes, or catch it on the BNN.ca replay later.

  36. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 4:55 pm

    Just my observations. Full disclosure i am currently long financials but that can change in an instant.

    Several charts attached.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 5:03 pm

      Vad- You really should think about expanding your audience next year. If not a video capture of each presentation, maybe a Webinar. You could even review what you presented in March via a Webinar any weekend, and put us all on the same page prior to next year’s presentations.

  37. London(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 5:12 pm

    Bouncing finally.

  38. Bev(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 5:13 pm
    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 5:22 pm

      Thanks, Bev. I noticed the graphs you posted last week also- easily overlooked if one is just scanning post titles.

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 6:29 pm

      Thanks Bev, nice chart. I think the correction aka right shoulder has begun, but I am not convinced today’s trend carries through to tomorrow. We may be up tomorrow and resume the correction Thursday or Friday imho.

  39. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 5:16 pm

    I lost track, was it MS, JPM or GS who devised the FDIC stress test?

  40. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 5:16 pm

    ALOHA !!

    “THIS IS OUR CURRENCY BUT IT IS YOUR PROBLEM” … John Connally, US Tres Sec 1971 responding to complaints by European nations that Nixon closed the gold window where US Dollars were no longer convertible to gold.

    Speaking at the Boao Forum “Asia:Managing Beyond Crisis” in front of all Asian trade partners of China Mr. Fan Gang a leading Chinese economist said, “America’s attitude in the past has always been that: ‘this is our currency, but it is your problem’. Asia, however, is now in a position to raise demands and choose its foreign exchange reserve currencies.”

    Way back when I first heard that comment I was in high school and I recall saying to myself, “That’s dumb!” I knew that comment would someday come back and bite America in the ass! Now here are the Chinese echoing it throughout eternity~ Arrogance begets foolishness …

    More from the Boao Forum …

    At the forum, Chinese economists promoted the use of the yuan as a regional currency while at the same time blaming the toll of the global economic crisis in Asia on the region’s high degree of dependence on the US economy.

    “Asia is heavily dependent on US markets partly because of the US dollar’s role as an international currency,” Fan Gang said.

    Ding Yifan noted that by providing capital to the US and by buying its government treasury bonds, China has been blamed for its “excessively” high savings rates and for causing the credit bubble.

    “It [the US] is really an unreasonable debtor,” Ding wrote. “If we invest our capital in infrastructure programs of developing countries, there will be no such blame.”

    China’s actions to further its leadership role in the region include a US$10 billion investment cooperation fund and an offer of $15 billion in credit to its Southeast Asian neighbors to help them weather the current crisis. The fund will finance infrastructure development linking China and its neighbors while the loans will be offered as rescue packages over the next three to five years.

    Link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KE05Cb

    JOHN CONNOLLY BIO (1917-1993)

    Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Connally

    In 1986, Connally filed for bankruptcy as a result of a string of business losses in Houston.[22] In December 1990, Connally and Oscar Wyatt, chairman of the Coastal Oil Corporation, met with President Saddam Hussein of Iraq. Hussein had been holding foreigners as hostages (or “guests” as Hussein called them) at strategic military sites in Iraq. After the meeting Hussein agreed to release the hostages.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 5:27 pm

      “THIS IS OUR CURRENCY BUT IT IS YOUR PROBLEM”

      It is not the problem of our government, financial or regulatory systems. It is the problem of everyone outside the moat.

  41. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 5:32 pm

    Trying a little HSU.TO at $25.8. Takes currency consideration out for Cdns, but it lacks depth to provide ample liquidity.

  42. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 5:53 pm

    Bank Stress Tests Expected To Show Manageable Losses

    http://tinyurl.com/dhcj2g

    EDIT: my opinion is I dont believe any of it. But i cant fight the trend.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 6:01 pm

      So what do you figure? We distribute into the test results and then rock-on to 950 or so (last resistance until outer space) and hit the wall there or maybe 1000?

      I have the same chart and results as Bev. (Good stuff Bev) That might not bode well for Bev though!
      But the chart is what it is….it’s the picture of the resistance we’ve been working through. Fighting the tape has got to be very painful…

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 6:12 pm

        For me personally, on my bullish financial positions, I am watching VIX, S&P 875 support, RIFIN $600, XLF $11.50, volume, etc. Just going to react to what i see.

        For my exit strategy i will likely use rsi, volume, macd and support lines.

        *Not meant as investment advice.

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 7:01 pm

      First line of this article says it all:

      “US regulators are working with the top 19 banks on Tuesday to put the final touches on the results of regulatory stress tests, “

      Umm, isn’t that like the Judge working with the convict on the ruling and sentence?

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 7:15 pm

      I suspect the stress test results will be played out in such a way that the banks will try to say “gee, we don’t really need capital, but the govt thinks it would be a good idea, so, we’ll raise a couple billion.”

      This way investors will be led to believe it’s not really dilution, cause the raised capital will be cash in the bank or some such nonsense, since the money is really needed.

      The hope will be that they get the shares out the door before prices implode. Given the amount of effort behind propping up these prices, I could see bank stocks holding out for a few months until the next foreclosure wave sets in. Eventually they won’t be able to hide their insolvency, but it could be a while.

  43. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:12 pm

    “And the drilling in the wall kept up but no one seemed to pay it any mind…”
    Zimmy.

  44. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:23 pm

    Is starting to happen as are the other “bad” financials (pmi, gnw, etc.)

  45. Bear E(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:24 pm

    GS is now in a very tight trading range on the 15 min chart.
    Between 134 and 135

  46. David(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:26 pm

    So what do you think about GDP turning positive in 4Q2009, as Bernanke is predicting? Is this just his wishful thinking? Is he making some unrealistic assumptions? The main assumption repeated in the news was:

    “As Bernanke has said in the past, the Fed’s forecast for a recovery hinges on the government’s ability to gradually repair the financial system.”

    The word “gradually” makes the above statement obviously true. But if he wants the economy to recover in 4Q2009, then the gov’t should make real progress in repairing the financial system BEFORE 4Q2009 — is it realistic?

    Also, wasn’t Bernanke predicting a “soft-landing” for the economy in 2007, as the damage would be contained only to the sub-prime mortgage market? So could it be that the analysts are once again ignoring the impact of the new wave of foreclosures coming in 2010?

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 6:33 pm

      Bernanke’s job is not to tell you the truth. You can’t handle the truth.
      The truth would crash the markets, kill the $USD and drive gold to outer orbit.

      If we knew the truth about the banks there would be a run on the weakest 25 out of 19 and the self-insured (us) would be in deep droppings.

      I’ve used the frog analogy too much but it fits.

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 8:31 pm

        “Bernanke’s job is not to tell you the truth. You can’t handle the truth.”

        Jack Nicholson did a better job with the line, though.

        But I’d sure like to see the same ending to this story.

        Actually, I think we could handle the truth much better than all this BS, song and dance. Just yank the Band-aid and be done with it.

    • Freedom57(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 6:44 pm

      “So what do you think about GDP turning positive in 4Q2009, as Bernanke is predicting? Is this just his wishful thinking? Is he making some unrealistic assumptions?”

      Denninger certainly thinks so:
      “To those who think that the banks will ‘all be ok’ and ‘we will muddle through and have economic recovery in 2010’ I politely suggest that you’re smoking something legal only in California.”
      http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1008-S

      • David(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 8:22 pm

        Denninger’s article seems logical. But the thing is, the market rallies are driven by hope, while the bearish positions are driven by logic and attention to details. The Big Money might be switching now into the mode of guessing how soon the recovery will take place, which is different from figuring out in how many pieces the economy will break once it shatters (which was the thinking in late February). It may be the case that from now on, the market will be “looking across the valley” toward the recovery, and even though a pull back is in order now under all scenarios, the S&P low of 666 might very well be THE low of this bear market.

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 8:39 pm
    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 6:58 pm

      I wouldn’t be too surprised to see GDP turning positive but that doesn’t mean the economy would be on the mend. Residential construction is down some 80% from it’s peak, so it’s about done subtracting from GDP. I don’t know how financial sector plays into GDP, but given that they can torture their numbers to say anything they want, it’s easy to imagine them doing so to post a positive. Not sure if yoy comparisons matter in GDP calc or not, but the Q4 comparison should be a cake walk. Inventory draw down was big negative in GDP in last two quarters, and obviously once close to zero, can no longer drag GDP further down.

      But like I said, does any of the above mean the economy is in recovery? Hardly. There is still a ton of excess capacity everywhere, so chance of new job creation is slim to none. House prices will not stabilize or rebound in the next year, probably not the next 2 or 3. States and munis are raising taxes to make up revenue shortfalls, digging further into disposable incomes. More foreclosures coming. People will simply have less money to spend, less demand. More job cuts. Repeat.

      I don’t think there’s any pulling out of a downward spiral here, regardless what GDP numbers will say.

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 7:05 pm

      David – So what do you think about GDP turning positive in 4Q2009, as Bernanke is predicting?

      He hasn’t been right yet, so I’ll go out on a limb here and say he won’t be right this time either. Eventually, by repeating a positive prediction often enough, he will be right by persistence. But I do not think that time is yet come.

  47. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:32 pm
    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 6:44 pm

      ALOHA !!

      Doormats never get first lien rights! That goes to the IRS … then the rest of the “preferred” bond holders then the doormats come in somewhere down at the bottom! Never mind that we saved Chrysler’s ass with more than one BAILOUT in the past and now we keep their doors open long enough to have the door slammed on guess who? Can a door be slammed on a doormat? HA!!

  48. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:47 pm

    ALOHA !!

    From a Wall Street insider to the rest of us …

    Cunning Realist:
    Saturday, May 02, 2009

    Inside Out

    This confirms what I’m seeing. In the past, friends of mine who work at public companies have sold their own company’s stock to pay for a new house or baby. Public filings show significant selling by several of them during the recent market rally. Strangely, no one has moved or been pregnant.

    Link: http://tinyurl.com/dfnb67

    posted by The Cunning Realist

  49. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:53 pm

    Article from AP business wire via Mish.

    … quarterly growth is unlikely to emerge until 2010, and that even then both the EU and the euro-zone will likely shrink 0.1 percent over the whole year — provided the banking sector recovers and world trade turns around.

    The EU warned that even worse may be ahead and banks’ efforts to deleverage — shore up their financial position by putting more money aside to cover bad debt — “may unravel with greater intensity than currently expected” if a bad debt spiral emerges.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EU-says-eurozone-job

    Contrast this straight talk with our stress-free negotiable test results we’re about to get from our government. It’s all gonna end in tears, but I for one certainly hope NYUGrad can make lots of good trades while we wait for the inevitable. 🙂

    • David(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 8:08 pm

      Thanks, dave, this is a good article. The following excerpt from it should remind to everyone that the same thing can easily happen with estimates about the US economy, since we are all in the same boat:

      “The EU now reckons that Germany will contract by a massive 5.4 percent this year as global demand dries up for the high-value goods such as cars and machinery that the country makes and exports. In January, the EU thought Germany would only shrink 2.3 percent this year.”

      If US will see a recovery and the US consumer will start consuming again, what will it consume? The major exporting countries are forecasting major problems with their exports, so they do not see the US resuming its consumption trend…

  50. Craig(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:53 pm

    So who do we know that is involved with past admins/insiders and are involved with this Chrysler “bailout”. Chrysler isn’t what they’re bailing out.

    Who do they put in charge…Bob Nardelli? The MOB is more clandestine. These crooks do it in broad daylight. Is John Snow the getaway driver or the hit man?

    And here I though the Bagwan and JZ Knight were total scams. Bernie Madoff is a mere trainee, an apprentice. Or well crafted distraction.

  51. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:54 pm

    In gold.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 8:40 pm

      They always are… Taking profits and reloading lower has been a winning strategy. It works until it doesn’t.

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        May 6, 2009 at 2:31 am

        the pattern of intraday weakness and a rally attempt in the final hour as Wall Street set their sights on S&P ….?

  52. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 6:59 pm

    as well as a macro trend of big players coming in. Just an observation.

    Chart attached.

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 7:48 pm

      NYG, great chart, can I get that from stockcharts.com, which is what I use?

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 7:56 pm

        Its actually generated by Pascal W., who is also part of the CTAB team. You can go to http://www.effectivevolume.eu

        • Johnny(118083 comments)-
          May 5, 2009 at 7:59 pm

          Sincere thanks NYUG. I played TZA today, was up quite a bit but held it too near the close and sold for a scalper’s profit. Just more learning.

  53. Freedom57(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 7:24 pm

    To this simpleton, the following is not consistent with an imminent housing recovery.

    “A Texas bank is about done demolishing 16 new and partially built houses acquired in Southern California through foreclosure, figuring it was better to knock them down than to try selling them in the depressed housing market.”
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/05/more-on-

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 7:40 pm

      Yeah, anybody who thinks housing will recover and start adding jobs is blind if you ask me. Having dropped 80% from peak, it likely won’t drop much further as there are always some people who have the money and desire for a new home, or renovate their existing home. So housing employment will likely stay where it is, at this very low level, for a very long time.

      Also, this low level is probably enough to keep adding supply while the existing supply is being drawn down very slowly. So while US may have 12 months supply of inventory, continued minimal construction will probably mean it takes more than 12 months to work off the excess inventory. Hence, no sudden demand for houses, hence, no meaningful recovery in residential construction, hence, no job growth from this sector.

      2001-2007 looks like about 1.5M jobs were added in construction:
      http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/images/2007

      And about 7 million total non farm private jobs in the same time period

      http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/ner/charting.aspx

      So about 21% of job growth came from construction jobs, which we likely can’t count on coming back any time soon.

      Then how much employment came from filling and servicing those new homes and offices?

      Like I’ve said before, the last couple of recoveries have been increasingly ‘jobless’. I expect this one to be even more so, in which case, is it really a recovery at all??

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        May 5, 2009 at 8:02 pm

        I think there are probably areas of the country that are still close to flat right now, and those areas might see a resumption of construction during a recovery. I think construction in bubble areas will have a very difficult time competing with all the foreclosures, short sales, and pent up supply from “Ma and Pa Organic” who will put their houses on the market the moment prices even threaten to rise slightly.

        The overhang from people who haven’t been able to sell because of competition from foreclosures is not something that’s baked into any NAR stats. Basically, I don’t believe we only have 10 months of supply. I think supply is much, much greater than that. Popular wisdom developed over the last 40 years says, “housing always comes back”, and people have taken their houses off the market waiting for the miracle to occur.

        In trading, we call that “resistance.” 🙂

  54. Les(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 7:26 pm

    bought 1 SPY Sep $99 calls at 2.99.
    sold 1 SPY Sep $95 calls at 4.40.

    Let’s see how this works out.

    also bought 1 bullish option call on SLW and KGC expiring Sep and Jan respectively for a small sum. Let’s see if we can hit gold, excuse the pun.

    Own a bit of gas, otherwise cash.

    Night all.

  55. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 7:50 pm

    15 min chart, 3 day time frame.

  56. jock(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 8:19 pm

    Aluminum stocks – up 98%
    Silver stocks – up 63%
    Copper stocks – up 46%
    Gold stocks – up 11%

    Not an easy time to be a goldbugger ….

    Only 8 Morningstar sub-industries (out of 208) did worse!

  57. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 8:25 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 8:46 pm

      No storm compares with the GS hurricane bestowed upon us all.

  58. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 8:38 pm

    gold looking very ugly today,

    falling after market too.

    suspect we will see some negative downward drift until tomorow morning when we see the usual downward plunges, mining shares to follow suit in the crapper.

    as noted this morning volume was weak on the recent jump for hte miners so there was nothing to suggest a rally was set, but a case was being built. some nice moves on barrick yet goldcorp took a big hit. thats a strange occurance, usually its the other way around.

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 8:56 pm

      that 850 -860 level should hold, otherwise it would get ugly for gold

    • Freedom57(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 9:15 pm

      Actually, gold and silver only pulled back about 2.5% peak to trough today. While gold miners pulled back, SLW.TO finished at its high for the day in the $10 range.

      To put the gold pullback in perspective, XLF increased about 10% yesterday, 4 times as much percentage-wise.

      Here’s a site that shows the intraday gold price movements averaged over 10 years, 1998-2008, showing the morning movements often commented on. http://www.seasonalcharts.com/intraday_metalle_gol

      Sharkie called the pullback a “stunning reversal”. I am thinking of copyrighting the term “Stunning Reversal” (caps) for the name of my pension plan :).

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 10:43 pm

      Ya know, Dr. Cosa, its possible that the holy POG is being manipulated not just to “keep gold down”, but also to cause accumulation and distribution of the mining shares. This occurred to me this morning. Under the guise of doing the Fed’s bidding, there could also be some serious money making by cycling gold up and down within a trading range. All tolerated as a cost of doing business. And, in fact, goldbugs are the enemy, so if they are affected, its just a nice side benefit.

      It would explain why they actually move gold UP in 1-minute spikes these days, as well as down. I think the organic movements in gold are not enthusiastic or rapid enough for HB&B so now they feel they must assist. Today was a “distribution day”. Spike gold up premarket, which raises gold mining stocks cheaply w/o resistance. Then when the market opens and public buying occurs at the open, distribute your mining shares like mad until you’re empty. Then sell off that gold you bought. Oh no, gold went down. Wait a few days for the mining shares to bottom. Accumulate. Sell off gold every now and then to keep it down, and keep the mining stocks cheap.

      Rinse, repeat.

  59. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 8:47 pm

    Didn’t do a trade today. Didn’t buy MGM. Didn’t buy LVS.
    I didn’t see them setting up because I need more screens.

    I hang my head in shame. Well, not shame, but regret.

  60. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 8:48 pm

    After 38 years, finally scored a copy at the local library. What a rush, going back to 1971. James Taylor looks like a kid. Well, he WAS a kid. He’s the driver. Dennis Wilson (Beach Boys drummer) is his mechanic. Warren Oates (how many seventies films was he in)- now that REALLY takes me back.

    Route 66>> I would hitch the reverse route with my roommate in January 1973.

  61. Milesquare(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 8:52 pm

    The Lynch Mob

    My management team is gonna kill me (we’ve got a 4:30 EST meeting and I’m officially late) but I’ve gotta comment on the one liner than came across my Bloomberg at 4:12 EST.

    *CHRYSLER DISSIDENT LENDERS MUST REVEAL IDENTITIES, JUDGE SAYS

    If you thought the backlash against AIG (AIG) or Freddie Mac (FRE) employees was bad, can you imagine how fierce social mood will be against the hedge fund managers whose single biggest crime was exercising their fiduciary responsibility of seeking payment on behalf of their investors?

    Talk about moral hazard, Jeez! Releasing these names to the public in a Googleable age is like throwing chicken wings to starving pit bulls. Make no mistake, this was no accident–it is, pure and simple, a strong arm tactic designed to “teach” investors not to mess with the strong arm of the government.

    I could go on–and I will, in time–but I’m officially being yelled at to join this meeting. Have a great night, Minyans, and let’s be careful out there.

    R.P.

  62. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 8:54 pm
  63. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 9:16 pm

    somebody is expecting S&P to go up

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/135441-tuesday-s-o

    Bearish Flow

    June puts on the iShares Ultra Short S&P 500 Fund (SDS) are active Tuesday. The leveraged fund moves inversely to the S&P 500 and rallies when stocks fall. Conversely, SDS sinks when the S&P 500 rallies. One strategist appears to be looking for a decline in the SDS and is taking a bearish position in June puts with a substantial condor — which is an advanced options strategy that includes selling options with two different strike prices (short strangle) and hedging that position by purchasing two options with different strikes (long strangle). In this case, the strategist sold 10000 June 49 and 10000 June 50 puts, while buying 10000 June 56 and 10000 June 45 puts. It appears to be a very bearish bet on SDS, which best profits if the fund closes between $49 and $50 at the June options expiration.

  64. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 9:46 pm

    That would be a 1st observation for me.

    http://tinyurl.com/cnn6c3

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 5, 2009 at 10:05 pm

      That would probably open the floodgates on fresh shorts, no? Seems some people are adverse to shorting stocks trading in the $1 range. But at $100, she’s got a long way to fall…

      edit: or from $60 as it were 🙂

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        May 6, 2009 at 12:48 am

        I am just glad i dont own GM shares and the co and govt basically is diluting away any value of any holders of GM common as of close today.

        How can the govt go along with this? so sad so sad. Doesn’t Obama own a lot of share of GM too?

        Seems like the only one getting the short end of the stick are the current shareholders and employees. The govt, bondholders, uaw, and creditors are all getting paid on the back of the shareholder. Which will prob be spun as great news tomorrow.

  65. Grym(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 10:32 pm

    Is anyone else noticing a change of the general pattern from the last month or so? I haven’t been tracking it specifically, but it seems like we’ve been holding between around 8,000 and 8,500 on the Dow.

    This week we sold off on Monday and again today. Seems like we were seeing more selling early in the week and building up toward higher Fridays.

    Bill has mentioned a lack of volume even though more breadth.

  66. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 5, 2009 at 11:54 pm
  67. Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 12:16 am

    China to use electric vehicles run on imported coal. I trade BTU and JRCC.

    http://www.mckinsey.com/locations/greaterchina/Chi

    Jim Rogers says IMF dump of its gold reserves could take spot down to $700 for a buy opportunity. Don’t forget he made billions trading currency with Soros unlike the poor pundits that say IMF dump will be snapped up by China without affecting spot prices.

    http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2009/05/

    Holding SLW with finger on the physical gold trigger (Perth). Thanks Bill and Kaimu.

  68. vinod(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 12:25 am
  69. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 12:44 am

    http://tinyurl.com/cx4bvl

    *GM to issue up to 60 billion shares to swap for debt
    *Current stockholders would get 1 pct of new company
    *Plan would proceed with approval from U.S. Treasury (Adds detail from SEC filing, quote from GM CEO, byline)

    Excerpt:
    “GM shares closed on Tuesday at $1.85 on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock would be worth just over 1 cent if the first phase of GM’s restructuring moves forward as described.

    Once GM has issued new shares to pay off its debt to the U.S. government, bondholders and its major union, it said it would then undertake a 1-for-100 reverse stock split.

    Such a move would take the nominal value of the stock back to near where it had been before the flood of new shares. But in the process, GM’s existing shareholders would see their stake in the 100-year-old automaker all but wiped out.”

    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      May 6, 2009 at 1:39 am

      ALOHA !!

      REVERSE SPLIT … A common ploy to avoid getting delisted!

    • Quasi(118083 comments)-
      May 6, 2009 at 1:47 am

      I think they are probably doing it that way just so they can say that the current shareholders did participate in the new company.

      Very similar to when Air Canada restructured here in Canada. If you had 10,000 shares you got one share of the new company, less than 10,000 shares you got nothing. Of course for those 10K shares, worth about $20K a few months earlier, you now had 1 new share which opened for trading at $20, and is now in the $1 range.

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        May 6, 2009 at 2:06 am

        Quasi- First, my wife’s consistent admonishment…”Why the hell do you keep looking for Co’s. to invest in that lose money?” Having said that, nothing really raised any red flags for her. Other than of course… Well, you know.

        • Quasi(118083 comments)-
          May 6, 2009 at 2:31 am

          Mark, thank your wife for the analysis, glad to know she didn’t see any really big red flags. I mean other than they aren’t making gobs of cash right now.

          But thats why they call it investing, you like the idea, the technology, the possibilities. I’m kinda a technology & design guy, so that stuff interests me. I don’t trade it, I just invest a little in it. The good thing is my engineering background keeps me out of the stuff that is just total hype and if I don’t understand it I’ll stay away.

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            May 6, 2009 at 2:35 am

            Quasi- I’m an engineer also, and it IS interesting technology. I’ve also started to accumulate some shares in micro Co’s lately. GL, man.

          • Quasi(118083 comments)-
            May 6, 2009 at 2:54 am

            Yep lots of interesting stuff out there. I spent some time in HVAC design, then high voltage distribution and ended up working for Nortel R&D in cabling systems.

            My current interests are in the energy field, alt energy and have also started to become very interested in geothermal ground source heating and cooling.

            Side note I’m currently looking at putting a small gen system in my house. The NA utility infrastructure is in a sad state. We just had a power failure for 5 hours last week and it reminded me of the ice storm back in 1998. I never thought I would have to go without power in Jan, in Canada, for 10 days. It will happen again and I keep putting off the preparation because I don’t need it right now. Problem is when I do need it, like last week I won’t be ready, gotta change that.

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            May 6, 2009 at 3:32 am

            Quasi- We install a lot of solar battery back-ups here, but on limited circuits, for 10 hr. max. What are you thinking of? At least here, the big diesel generators are the way to go. Less than 3 seconds from loss to power up.

          • Quasi(118083 comments)-
            May 6, 2009 at 4:24 am

            Mark,
            Sorry I guess we are getting a little off topic here on this thread and its getting late.

            My first thoughts are small, just pony panel with a few circuits, manual transfer and start-up. I only really need to alternately run; the gas furnace fan, fridge, freezer, sump maybe and probably the DSL modem and computer.

            Could get by with a 2kw or 3kw unit. Honda makes a nice quite one around 3kw. But then you start looking at something like the Onan natgas/propane large automatic unit and you can run almost everything at once, except maybe a self clean electric oven.

            Of course if I’m really thinking of standby power for extended periods, then I’ve gotta think about feeding it. During the ice storm here just finding gas was difficult, stations were shut down, you know electric pumps. We had natgas and water the whole 10 days, but not sure that would always be the case.

            Not sure which way I will go at this point, but leaning towards just buying a 2-3kw unit for now and doing the manual start and transfer method, the low cost “KISS” system.

  70. score22(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 1:15 am

    why should these rally so strongly now now?

    http://tinyurl.com/dnj3yk

    http://tinyurl.com/d6mnjs

  71. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 1:42 am

    AIG reveals $454 mln in 2008 performance bonuses.
    http://tinyurl.com/cm6bws

    Excerpt
    “WASHINGTON, May 5 (Reuters) – Embattled insurer American International Group (AIG.N) paid some $454 million in previously undisclosed performance bonuses to employees for 2008, the company said in answers to questions from a U.S. lawmaker that released on Tuesday.”

  72. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 1:47 am
    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      May 6, 2009 at 11:42 am

      CP, LOL

      One of my fav pubs!

      Unfortunately, in the WSJ just yesterday readers’ comments regarding the economy and particularly the banks, were saying almost exactly the same thing.

      No kidding! “We’ve had enough doom and gloom.”

      As was said here yesterday, I guess they “can’t handle the truth.”

  73. vinod(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 2:00 am

    DHI, CTX and PHM are down after hours.3 biggest home builders don’t have favorable forecasts for the market for new homes?

  74. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 3:04 am
    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      May 6, 2009 at 3:16 am

      Shiva- But that’s just the way it goes.

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        May 6, 2009 at 3:29 am

        that was not my remark tho, part of the interview….

        • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
          May 6, 2009 at 3:40 am

          Ah…Guess I should read to the last line, my apologies.

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      May 6, 2009 at 4:11 am

      I suspect banks will be a lot less profitable over the next 20 years than they have been the last 20. At least I hope so. Banks making 30% of S&P earnings, or whatever the number was, is ridiculous. Not to mention banks floated along on a declining interest rate environment helping their earnings, and massive leverage over the last 10 years to really blow out the earnings.

      I think (hope!!) it’s safe to say that will not be the case again for a very long time.

  75. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 3:33 am

    Am I missing something, or is this really just like a bankruptcy proceeding without going to court and having all the debt holders/shareholders properly represented? I guess the administration is playing judge and deciding who gets what?

  76. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 12:33 pm

    Back in the limelight.

  77. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    May 6, 2009 at 12:39 pm

    Blank

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