Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Tues., Apr. 14, 2009

[8:58am ET] I will be watching closely today as the President speaks about the economy. Will he appear Presidential or will he, once again, act like he is America

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236 Comments

  1. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:06 pm

    So is this movement pre-market just more of the same?

  2. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:08 pm

    bit early for kicking gold, isn’t it?

  3. kameag(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:15 pm

    From Globe and Mail..

    “Canada’s securities industry watchdog is set to propose new rules for bond trading to address investor concerns that brokerages may be inflating prices and hiding big commissions.

    The proposed regulations, which will be published Friday for public comment by the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, are designed to increase transparency and drive down costs for investors.”

    This is good new for investors in bonds. In my previous gig, bonds were sold with big commissions, in many cases 3% for the longer dated issues. The big trick was on new issues…usually the bond had an early call date (3-5 years) with the final maturity 15-20 years out. Sell the client on the early call date and juicy yield and collect the big commission. Of course the commission was totally hidden.

  4. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:17 pm

    Market needs to sleep it off. Not to mention raise capital for another run higher. If I were inclined to short, which I’m not, I would be taking a position in FAZ.

  5. mayhem991(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:19 pm

    Washington is focusing on repairing Wall St. not repairing Main St. I think Ronald Reagans’ top down economic policies are at work and this time they are failing. Some of the money Washington is spending should go toward creating jobs, even if those jobs are meanial or the benefits are trivial. As long as people are out of work they can’t think about investing or saving.

    • number2son(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 1:23 pm

      I think Ronald Reagans’ top down economic policies are at work and this time they are failing.

      When did they ever succeed?

      Answer: never.

      • nemo(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 1:26 pm

        You can’t separate a President’s policies from the parties that were in power at the time, which was the Democrats. There’s what the President wants, and there’s what the Congress gives him, so you get a mess in the middle. You never find out if those policies will work.

  6. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:29 pm
  7. Craig(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:29 pm

    Truly, trickle on…down never worked for anyone but who it trickled UP to.
    Trickle down (we should have paid attention to the pace…trickle?) was the opening shot of the most recent class wars and the little guy has been getting the shaft ever since.

    The little guy can’t seem to find a Washington ally to buy.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 1:39 pm

      I agree with you Craig. But regardless of policy, there will be economic failure in America if Americans don’t have confidence in the financial system, and right now they don’t. Steps need to be taken to build that base. The rest will follow.

      • javc2000(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 1:56 pm

        Talk about gaining confidence…WFC reports on thursday they had good 1st tr, stocks jump to 20.00 and now they have a need for 50bn more? Come on!!

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 2:03 pm

        No disagreement on this from me Bill. I know my own feelings are not of transparency and confidence in capital markets. There are maybe two politicians I think ‘get it’ and zero at HB&B. I hope they get it soon or it’s going to be a long year.

  8. cuvo(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:41 pm
    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 1:54 pm

      Cuvo,
      What does one month matter? With mark-to-fantasy in effect, just why can’t we expect every financial company to show a profit on their ‘legacy assets’?

      • cuvo(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 2:04 pm

        What does one month matter? With mark-to-fantasy in effect, just why can’t we expect every financial company to show a profit on their ‘legacy assets’?

        By golly, you’re right, Johnny. That’s it! I’m bullish on financials! SKF’s goin’ to ZERO!

  9. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 2:16 pm

      Nice move, Les.

  10. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    Going to be hard to smooth these numbers over. Obama has to do more then just flap his jaws or this economy is going to implode into an economy similar to Somalia.
    The 2 big to fail are making record windfalls and over 5 million people and climbing are with out a JOB and teetering on the life of crime to feed their children!
    It’s becoming more clear to me Obama is nothing but hot air! Hot air doesn’t feed the millions of children that are suffering while the banksters are making billions in profits and compensating themselves millions upon millions of dollars.
    Accounting trivia….Where did Goldman Sachs make their record profits this quarter?
    Accounting trivia answer…..the working peoples retirement savings!
    All the Obama hot air in the world can’t fool the people with out jobs into believing they will have a job in 1, 2, maybe 3 or 4 years from now.
    Hot air can’t, won’t, and hasn’t fixed the problems of the rich becoming richer at the expense of the majority of the population.

  11. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:51 pm

  12. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    This thing climbs a little higher up the tree every day, putting some in my port for when those coconuts ripen.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:20 am

      Mark – I didn’t quite understand the connection between solar panel inverters and FTWR, is their equipment running on solar power? Perhaps it would behoove me to check into this myself (DD)…

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 1:37 am

        CP- The connection is the renewed availability for micro-cap companies to get funding. I though you might like the info on the inverters. There’s no question that micro-inverters are the future…it’s only a matter of time and $. I’ll keep you posted when this company goes public. Best guess, next year.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 1:54 am

          Micro inverters could increase the efficiency of solar panels because AC at higher voltage looses much less power than DC from impedance losses.

  13. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:00 pm

    Navy 3; Pirates 0.

    • Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 2:19 pm

      Chickenpookie –

      Navy 5; Pirates 0. One was negotiating on board the Navy vessel and surrendered (every man for himself: pirate code) and another had his hand pegged with a knife to a table in the hijacked freighter hold (no lie!) while the others fled with the captain. It’s now being reported that these two surviving pirates requested to go to banking school in the U.S.

      Arrrghh!

      • Corner Stone(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 3:33 pm

        Dr –

        It’s now being reported that these two surviving pirates requested to go to banking school in the U.S.

        Your quote doesn’t say whether they will be students there or professors.

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 3:36 pm

          Oh that’s easy. Students.
          What on earth could pirates teach bankers?

  14. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:01 pm

    ..

  15. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    whats going on with these? short covering?

  16. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:10 pm

    AMZN – Price Target Raised from $72 to $84 @ RBC. Outperform

  17. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    bought some at 9.68.

  18. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    I been riding with the General

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 2:31 pm

      RE:>”I been riding with the General”

      to where – Little Bighorn?

      🙂

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 2:32 pm

      Very Nice Shark. Pure TA call?

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 2:36 pm

        Yes, after it cleared 1.50 this morning for good it did a turtle-type breakout from a long sideways consolidation…similar to the LNG play of about a year ago…

  19. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:30 pm

    As if disappointment with retail sales figures is of greater concern than our opaque banking sector. Gotta love this ridiculous lip service…

  20. Hammer1(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:30 pm

    It is obvious the government has grown far beyond what the founders wanted and is now doing things they shouldn’t be doing. They collect too much money. The private sector is unable to bailout businesses because they have had too much money taken from them…so they go to the government who has it and can print it.

    Your “trickle down” is that the government is going to determine what can be trickled down to you… The producers will continue to give them an outsized portion of their money and they will spread it out to the non-producers based on their need…the incentive for production will eventually decline…people will become more and more reliant on the government.

  21. Grym(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:35 pm
  22. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    Obama has one of the most corrupt cabinets of appointees that I can recollect.
    Didn’t Obama say it would be different???????????
    Obama is a whole lot of hot air, nothing but hot air.

    HHS Nominee Gov. Kathleen Sebelius Lowballed Abortion Doctor’s Donations

    WASHINGTON — President Obama’s health secretary nominee got nearly three times as much political money from a controversial abortion doctor as she told senators.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/13/hhs-nom

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 2:54 pm

      Did he donate more than the limit? If not, the question is mute.

      These divisive Constitutional distractions must be put behind us or divided we will fall. Abortion, Gay Marriage, Guns. All non-issues meant to divide.
      Let go of it. I’m not planning on an abortion being a man, my marriage has nothing to do with anyone else, and the 2nd amendment is still secure and my guns and ammo aren’t going anywhere. No chicken little (no relation to CP) the sky is not falling, no matter what the head cases at FOX say.

      There isn’t anyone here suggesting the government should be involved in their medical decisions is there?

      As to the financial reporting….I’m finishing up several returns and my question becomes one of process. It isn’t paying the taxes that kills me, it’s the GD forms and paperwork, follow the numbers simpleton BS. Use this worksheet, that form, this report, that figure, report it on line blah on form grunt, include it on form 666 and die. No two people on earth will get the same answer in such a mess of a system.

    • Zed(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 2:54 pm

      Can you recall the Bush/Cheney administration?
      They set the benchmark for corrupt.
      Corrupt everything.
      And quoting Faux News, come on…..

      Now then, how about FAS?

  23. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:39 pm

    regarding recent questions about uranium,

    timingthemarket.ca does the daily TA update and featured Merv’s uranium analysis with a feature chart of Mega Uranium, his blog linked focuses on his own proprietary index of uranium producers.

    http://techuranium.blogspot.com/

    i have no position in any uranium stocks, no interest in them and no connections to these blogs, jut thought people might want to check this that were following up on Bill’s comments over the weekend.

    J

  24. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:39 pm

    Seems to have hit a wall lately.

  25. txdave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:53 pm

    Anyone follow RRR or this industry?

    Have an opinion?

    • kameag(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 3:20 pm

      Toromont (TIH) and Finning (FTT), both on the TSX have portions of their business in the same line. Info only, not a recommendation.

    • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 4:18 pm

      I do not have an opinion one way or another, but I am curious about the validity and relibility of this source. I can see how the financial intertainers HB&B trade against their own clients. Is this source any different? Opinions would be appreciated…thanks.

  26. tango6(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:54 pm

    This is heading toward the 3rd test of the fib 62% retracement at the DJIA 8,089 (from the Jan high of 9,100). Third time lucky? I am bullish on the index but on the sidelines until somebody pulls the cork.

  27. SiO2(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    GS ignores 1 month (of losses), while JNJ ignores shares? JNJ beats estimates despite a 7.2% decrease in sales. Earnings were down 2.5% but JNJ bought back shares so the earnings were distributed among fewer shares, then their EPS became the same as last year.

    GS biggest chunk of profit seems to have been out of fixed income trading. How sustainable is that?

    • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 3:08 pm

      SIO2

      I am not sure that is a fair criticism of JNJ. In my opinion, buying back shares over the last couple quarters was a prudent management decision (to reduce outstanding equity during the market crash at fire sale prices). The same can’t be said about the majority of HB&B companies that were using their cash at the top of the market to buy back shares and help management to cash out their own stakes and company options.

      I see your point that a decline in total earnings is somewhat masked by the fact that there are fewer shares outstanding but I don’t see the attempt at deception in regards to JNJ.

  28. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:57 pm

    Looks like it could be in for a run-up today. 5-day chart shows slow gradual rise and long term chart suggesting a bottom occured in October ’08.

    Any thoughts?

  29. OT(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    What is the “open interest” column on options?

    BTW, I bought back my EGO $12.50 covered calls today. I am sorta in no man’s land now re options. If price goes up will sell cc on EGO and SLW. If it goes down will sell puts. Right now, just standing on the corner trying to stay out of trouble. lol

    • korvus(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 3:22 pm

      The “open interest” on options represents the number of open contracts outstanding. Say we are talking SLW MAY09 10 Calls. I see an open interest of 4,402. As I understand it, that means there are 4,402 long call positions out there, with 4,402 short call positions as the other side of the trade (since you can only buy a call if someone is willing to sell one).

      It gives you an idea of how liquid that option is. I once heard advice from an ex-CBOE trader who says he never trades an option unless the open interest is at least 100 times what he’s planning on trading (otherwise there will probably be a large bid/ask spread, and it may be hard to get a fair price when you want to close your positions). I try to follow that, and it seems to work for me. That’s my main use for that number — to make sure there are other people who want to trade that contract!

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 3:31 pm

        RE:>”never trades an option unless the open interest is at least 100 times what he’s planning on trading”

        sound advice – thanks.

      • OT(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 3:33 pm

        Thanks Korvus.

        BTW, a belated thank you for a post long ago by you (I wasn’t registered to post at the time and didn’t like typekey). Anyway, you gave an explanation of covered calls and pointed out the income could lower the cost basis of the stock. Even though there had been many prior posts on options, your post was the one that finally caused it to sink in. Thanks for the earlier explanation and for the one today.

        • korvus(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 4:26 pm

          OT,

          I’m glad you’ve gotten something out of my posts! I’m no options expert, but I do trade them quite a bit. I’m glad I can contribute more than just computer skills to the Community!

  30. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    Yes, I sold the General on the way up, looking 2 re-load.

  31. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 3:16 pm
  32. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 3:17 pm

    Ok folks, another depressing revelation for you. There is no way to buy stock(seeing that it will be good) without it becoming good and then requiring sale prior to it becoming “not good” or re-crossing your price MOST OF THE TIME.

    My point? Even if you want to not be a trader, to invest long term, you’re practically forced by circumstance to become Johnny-day-trader. I almost never regret a stock sale. Even when early, price invariably worsens. I’m glad I have the skills I do have, they’re the only reason I still have a shirt. When you get into the market on any given day you are, most likely, fish food and nothing more.

    Have an awesome day!

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 3:27 pm

      Not good news coming from a guy with the screen name Shark Attack!
      What do you say Nemo? Nemo????

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 3:33 pm

        Yes, Nemo…One of Vadym’s market warriors, and another name from the depths…

        • nemo(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 3:41 pm

          Nah…I’m the guy who poked the Cyclops in the eye.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 3:46 pm

            So your given name is Odysseus? Cool.

  33. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    has gotten in the way of my trading. LOL.

    Still have a bearish to neutral attitude toward the markets. Still I wondered why I missed this nice rally off the March low. The $NAA50R got down to 15% (% of Naz stocks trading above 50 DMA) which generally signals a low. I also missed the RSI scan which showed a lot of bull ETF’s giving RSI buy signals. AND the paired trade FAS:FAZ showed FAS bottomed March 8/9 which was another signal. In addition the FAS:IEF showed the FAS buy was a low risk trade even tho’ most traders were puking up their heels at that point. So I missed a helluva bunch of signals.

    In any case, I had enough bull positions that I’ve been selling into the rally that my net equity position despite large bear ETF positions has been relatively flat. Still the saying “Trade what u see, not what u believe” would been more beneficial. I will also note that the RSI scanner is showing only 4 stocks below RSI 30 which has been, in my experience, a topping indicator.

    That said, FXP and EEV have given RSI buy signals. I am putting buy stop limit orders above yesterday’s 3PM prices. The 26 week EMA for all the major averages is still in a slight downtrend. My thoughts is the March low is retested to kill the newbie bulls just as this rally killed the newbie bears and those who held short positions too long/big. JMO.

    Do your own homework.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 4:01 pm

      Trend is still down in a now overbought bear rally. Look to the left on that 6 mo chart and you will see the overhead. I think you are right, but time is the question. I think it’s time to be thinking risk. But then again…

  34. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    out of it for 14% profit.

  35. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 3:58 pm
  36. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 4:10 pm

    Intra day.

    re-opening very small position.

    In small at 8.96. If it drops to 8.85 i will sell. if it gets back to 9.10 i’ll add.

    EDIT: I am also watching volume on SKF and FAZ. Sure they are up but on tepid volume. i believe volume overall is low today. So pullbacks on light volume is a good thing in my book. Keeping in mind also it is lunchtime on the east coast.

    EDIT 2. got stopped out. fine by me.

  37. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 4:18 pm

    set stop above my purchase price.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 4:20 pm

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 4:44 pm

        gonna wash the bathroom while awaiting some volume…

  38. kameag(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 4:18 pm

    Bill has mentioned her before. She’s scheduled for their “Market Call” program tomorrow re: oil and gas stocks.

    • BOB 47(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 5:43 pm

      Kameag .Thanks for the heads up.

  39. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 4:38 pm

    If Goldman is to pay back the TARP money prior to paying back Buffett, wouldn’t that be grounds for a shareholder lawsuit? Aren’t the terms (read: interest rate) of Buffett’s loan more onerous than the TARP terms? So then why are they wanting to pay back TARP first?

    Oh yeah, because of the compensation restrictions…that’s right…

    If I were a shareholder of GS I’d be pretty pissed about this choice. Compensation restrictions boost profits. And paying back higher interest loans before lower ones is just plain smart.

    Oh but the TARP restrictions will drain the talent from the firm…hmmm…you mean the same talent that got them in this mess, huh?

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 4:41 pm

      Teamonfuego,

      You’ve got it all wrong. Paying off TARP and removing compensation restrictions will allow them to hire the best of the best, thus boosting their profits.

      Man, hard to keep a straight face typing that, but sadly I could see it coming out of a bankers mouth without a flinch…

      • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 5:05 pm

        and the craziest part: i think the bankers believe that is true

  40. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 4:44 pm

    Pretty well defined stop on this one, and the underlying (FXI) looks extended. FXI did make it through the 200dma, but on thin volume.

  41. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 5:00 pm

    Saw S&P break support and selling volume picking up on banks.

    Also seeing FAZ price break above inverse head and shoulder neckline.

    Chart attached.

  42. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 5:06 pm
    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 6:14 pm

      Shiva,

      As to nailing it, again; maybe yes, maybe no. I just remarked to the other traders at CTAB that I have never been more flummoxed by markets as I have been in the past ten days. I feel like a fish out of water. It’s remarkable that we are making money.

      Re my recent comments about Obama, believe me all, they are apolitical. I am pulling for him but, but, but… I am starting to get the message that while he is clearly a great orator, he has lousy judgment in people, gets far too personal for what I think is expected of a US President, and gives the same speech continuously, like someone who likes to hear himself talk, but cannot manage an organization. I am seriously getting creeped out by this and it could be happening to others, which is why this market may be in a state of confusion.

      The issue today is the lack of transparency and hence lack of confidence in (i) the Federal Reserve and the banks they supposedly regulate, and (ii) the shenanigans that have gone on in the Treasury Dept. Obama was elected on a platform of change, but it’s clear to me that the problems that need to be overcome are still being managed by the very people who created them, both on Wall Street and in Washington. It seems to me that these puppeteers are playing for time, so that the status quo can be maintained. I don’t see change that was promised and is needed, and I’m thinking now that it’s not going to happen.

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 6:42 pm

        Bill,
        I actually got quite worried after his Iran fiasco(regarding foreign policy). I appreciate his intention to warm the relations but it should be started from the lowest levels & brought to a level of agreement before the president speaks. So far i think he is forgetting that a president’s office is an institution and slips can be quite costly to the nation. I wish him all the best and hope he talks less & does more.

        • korvus(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 7:32 pm

          Shiva,

          I’m actually in the opposite camp. I feel Obama’s one truly strong area has been with foreign policy, and I think Iran is a great example of that. The man is a diplomat, and I think his direct approach is the only way we may end up with Iran as a powerful ally in the Middle East. The population there isn’t nearly as extreme as the leadership, and if they believe that we are willing to work to improve the relationship between our countries, they will tend to elect more moderate leaders. At least, that is the impression my Iranian friends give me.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 8:06 pm

            Korvus, I agree with you about Iranian population. About Obama’s foreign policy – he hasnt been put to test yet. Winning EU leaders is good but real test is Russia, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea types. Lets see. I just hope in his eagerness to score brownie points, he doesnt rush too soon & dilute whatever behind the cloak power that America. On Cuba, i agree with his swift action, that was long overdue

          • korvus(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 8:15 pm

            That’s fair. I tend to think he’s doing the right things, but you are right that he has yet to really be tested. Of course, I thought Bush did all the wrong things, so maybe it’s just that he looks flattering in comparison. 😉

      • MtnGntx(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 7:02 pm

        All visible indications to the contrary, there is indeed a fight going on “below decks” for the future directions of this planet… the leaks are there if you know where to look. And, like yourself, I have not yet given up hope in the Obama administration to make headway in the correct direction.

        THese families, entities that wield control are POWERFUL… hugely so in ways that continue to blow my mind and Ive studied these things extensively for 2 decades. The only real enemies these entities respect are each other. Historically, the masses are kept in the dark, ignorant, apathetic, and confused, and aside from a grass roots mutiny that overwhelms controlling mechanisms, the masses cannot exert overt control on their machinations. And even then, these guys have historically retreated to regroup and effectively reassert themselves.

        Things are more unstable among these groups than they have been in generations. Infighting has derailed more than one recent Orwellian path planned for the masses.. and thank goodness for that.

        Opportunity abounds amidst the chaos, and I am hoping Obama will pick his moment to exploit this to good effect.

        Clearly hard to make money in this environment though.

      • Finger Lakes(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 7:03 pm

        “Obama was elected on a platform of change, but it’s clear to me that the problems that need to be overcome are still being managed by the very people who created them, both on Wall Street and in Washington. It seems to me that these puppeteers are playing for time, so that the status quo can be maintained.”

        Change we can believe in right. I was hoping it would be different this time but as soon as I saw Geithner and Summers in his core crew I knew we were screwed.

        Like you say, most thinking average people out here, like me, will not trust or do business with the major banks again until we see complete management and board changes or bankruptcy. And then we also need some serious prosecutions.

        Otherwise we’ll just keep our money in our local private banks and in Gold and we’ll also develop local private lending networks to privately finance expenses where we would normally use a commercial bank.

        The thing these big banks who think they’re too big to fail haven’t figured out is that we don’t need them at all. It’s exactly the opposite. They need us to do business with them or they’re toast.

        Rob.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 7:11 pm

        “someone who likes to hear himself talk, but cannot manage an organization.”

        While this may prove to be true, I do recall a better run presidential campaign on the democratic side while the republican side never was able to coordinate effectively. Perhaps the latter simply wasn’t interested and the impression generated was by default?

        The relationship between Wall Street and Washington is just too synergistic to discount. The only way from my point of view this could ever be dissolved would require a complete and utter annihilation of the American, and perhaps global, economy. Still no assurances.

        I don’t recall in my limited memory an elected politician who didn’t claim an intent to invoke the kind of change we’re anticipating, nor can I identify many examples of where their “efforts” met success. There have been countless good men appointed to governmental positions with this intent only to discover the impossibility of the task. The culture is unbelievably strong. I keep reflecting on the impression from the day Obama met Bush on Capital Hill just following the election. The look I saw on Obama’s face was not inspiring as it to me seemed he had just learned something he had not expected. From Obama’s brief speech following, my impression was that whatever he learned during the briefing knocked him off his feet.

        We’re more likely going to have to trade around the issues.

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 8:36 pm

          CP,

          I could have willingly voted for McCain over W’s second term, but this time he was like a totally different person.

          As the campaign wore on (the truly descriptive word for it) I became convinced the Republicans had decided to let the Democrats have the White House (they knew they virtually had no chance in hell).

          My thinking is they figured the mess to be so bad this would be a one term repeat of Carter’s. Soon, if not already, this will be the Obama/DemoCongress’ Tarbaby.

          They are buying the war in Afghanistan with their expansion into Pakistan.

          The no-read push through of the stimulus (with 8,000 earmarks) and the failing (I expect) of the bailouts to cure the economic malaise will soon turn the general public against him and them.

          With far more job losses and mortgage defaults pending, his “3 to 5 million new jobs in two years” has already taken on a hollow ring.

          I have been watching (hearing) Obama for years and he is running true to form. He may not talk with a Chicago accent, but his political degree is Chicago cum laude.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 8:50 pm

            Grym,

            If I were to draw three circles with some overlap, Politicians, Lawyers, Bankers, Salesmen and possibly medical doctors would all be within the intersecting area.

      • casey(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 7:44 pm

        Bill the key statement you said was: Obama was elected on a platform of change, but it’s clear to me that the problems that need to be overcome are still being managed by the very people who created them,

        In other words it is clear Obama is being influenced / managed / guided by some of the very same people who have guided the past few administrations

        the man in front might change but those behind the curtains are very much still pulling strings.

        The only true change to come will be the ones we ripple in our own personal life.

        When the game is rigged … get out of the “end game” part of the play.

        We are not near the end game yet… wotever that might be… will not be what anyone expects including those behind the curtain.

        Life is beautiful… don’t place hope outside of your life… it is always placed within your own heart and daring to create your own games to find your own path to freedom, in times like these.

        peace 🙂

        • Finger Lakes(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 7:59 pm

          One of my former bosses used to be in the Air Force One Helicopter crew back during Reagan and Bush senior. He spent a fair amount of time around both men and said that both presidents were so far removed from the actual reality and decisions that are made it was scary. He said it was like the Presidents were a school superintendent, just there for PR and to glad-hand everyone. He said the actual government was run by various cabinet departments vying for power and pull.

          Rob.

          • casey(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 8:26 pm

            Pretty much matches to what I personally have witnessed.

            The internal politics are pretty amazing to watch in action.

            But best to watch from afar under my waterfall. I don’t miss DC.

            Many levels of shadows and even shadows cast shadows.

      • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 12:24 am

        Interesting comments from Bill Cara on April 14, 2009:

        “… but it’s clear to me that the problems that need to be overcome are still being managed by the very people who created them, both on Wall Street and in Washington.”

        Now, this is from back in November 2008, just after Obama announced Geithner as his choice for treasury secretary:

        “Also, Obama’s nomination of Geithner to treasury secretary does little for me to induce confidence that anything other than what has already been done (or proposed) by Paulson and his clan will be changed for the better.

        It will likely be more of the same, as Geithner was right there on board with Paulson as the original (flawed) plan was put into place.

        Rewarding bad behavior, and more to the point, bad lending practices by throwing taxpayer money at the situation in an attempt to “get the economy going again” will only lead to far larger dislocations not far (much sooner than our grandkids) down the road.

        As has been said here before, “it all works until it doesn’t.”

        JMO

        [Bill Cara note:

        Geithner would not have been my choice either, but the banks would not have accepted Summers or Volcker, and this volatile cycle bottoming process would have continued. In that respect, Geithner is a good choice. Proof will be in the pudding. Let’s see how the man operates before we judge. From what I have seen, President-elect Obama has made some wise moves. He should be afforded every opportunity to do the job that will be painful for many people. But there is no reason that the job cannot get done. With globalization and open trade today, the whole world depends on it.]”

        Posted by: ToddinFL at November 24, 2008 1:11 PM

        Bill rightly said back on Nov. 24th of last year that “the banks would not have accepted Summers or Volcker, and this volatile bottoming process would have continued.”

        That is exactly what will ultimately happen -(the volatile bottoming process), unless Obama and his team do not REMOVE Geithner and put someone NOT connected with Goldman Sachs and the other big monied interests on Wall Street to the treasury post.

        The people are calling (have called) for change, but “the banks and monied interests” are still in control. As long as that continues, there will be always be a cloud of doubt and skepticism in the markets; and the ensuing volatility that goes with it.

        Just one person’s opinion, as always.

        • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 12:55 am

          ToddinFL, the emotions and depth of thought in many of the Discourse comments today have been really impressive. All I can say is that we owe it to ourselves to speak up when first moved, and then return later to that point to try to understand ourselves. At the end of the day, it’s that ability of a trader to stand naked in front of a crowd and admit the shortcomings that makes a great trader.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 1:06 am

          “The people are calling (have called) for change, but “the banks and monied interests” are still in control. As long as that continues, there will be always be a cloud of doubt and skepticism in the markets; and the ensuing volatility that goes with it.”

          Perhaps we can agree there’s always been a cloud of doubt about free markets? Should we concentrate on what’s different now than say 10 years or so in the past, several items come to mind: 1)Wall Street’s involvement in the housing market(for which in retrospect they demonstrate no apparent understanding), 2) the flat income levels, and 3) offshoring of many value-added jobs over the period.

          After all, who in their right mind believes market prices only increase? Housing was a market last time I checked, allowing Wall Street into this market to a large degree unfettered was an insane act and a violation on behalf of our regulatory process. The freedom of the housing market became tainted by the same Wall Street conflict of interest that prevailed for so many years in the equities markets.

          Yes, we can anticipate more self-preservation attempts coming from Wall Street rather than less, along with the blessings of a Congress intimate with those conflicts of interest. The difference between then and now is their dirty laundry has become more apparent.

      • loannetter(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 8:21 am

        Bill, I know Wall St is getting impatient for it’s fix but I can report the stimulus incentives have already eased mortgage money. A homeowner facing foreclosure has more options today. One person I know received new loan terms under 4% today (modified) while another will keep his home by having a second lien written off while a senior whose portfolio evaporated can live comfortably with a reverse mortgage (HUD guaranteed unlike his 401k). These negotiations are the direct result of cheap money and performance incentives to the banks. A rebalancing act is happening on home street at least. This does not mean lending is getting any easier — it’s just starting to make sense again. The folks getting the ‘deals’ are the deserving hard working people most affected by personal loss to their livlihoods. Free up cash for 7 million homeowners and you just might see your volume return.

  43. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 5:20 pm

    ………..
    edit oout 8.88
    look for reload..got it at 8.55 and out at 8.42..market turning south it appears

  44. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 5:39 pm

    If the banks say that profits are MUCH better than previously presumed and if THIS is the market reaction, well, that tells you something about this market.

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 5:56 pm

      i think the 30% rise in the market tells you more than a one day reaction, no?

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 6:28 pm

        “i think the 30% rise in the market tells you more than a one day reaction, no?”

        Um, no. That rally happened in the absence of earnings info. What I’m talking about here is the market’s reaction the past day or 2 to the good bank news.

        • Finger Lakes(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 6:55 pm

          Looks like traders far and wide don’t believe the Bank BS earnings. I would think the fact the Goldman is selling stock is all we need to see for evidence of a short-term top. Being so connected and accounting for most of the program trading volume lately, they could realistically sell their shares whenever they wanted. The fact that they chose today speaks volumes.

          The market could hold though until BAC and C and any other compromised banks can squeak out second offerings too.

          Did you see how much of GS’s profit came from speculative trading? Most of it. Wouldn’t it be crazy if GS trading was 30% or more of total market volume?

          Rob.

        • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 6:57 pm

          actually, the rally was prompted by “earnings” from Citibank back in early March.

          either way, i hope you’re right as i’m sitting in a long position on FAZ that i started today..

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 6:32 pm

        Call me naive, but this lull almost seems like the entry point I’ve been hearing so many are anticipating. Unfortunately I don’t have the proper technical skills necessary for determining whether 1stQ earnings justify higher prices or not.

        My other feeling associates today’s nervousness to Intel’s earnings report which I don’t anticipate will contribute much icing for the mud pie.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 8:14 pm
      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 9:26 pm

        “Don’t you think the traders are just about the only ones in the market these days?”

        Actually, a few years ago before I ever decided to make this my career I determined that the jobs picture would never again be as good as it had been. In fact, I imagine lots of people are being “forced” to try to learn how to trade, and many others are doing so willingly.

        Re: Fydrich, reminds me of when I was young. The late ’70’s Yankees teams, those great ones with Reggie and Billy Martin, the Cars first record, Van Halen’s first 2 records, summer camp in the Berkshires with my sister that year when three counselors were killed in a drunk-driving crash in 1979 at the age of 18. They’d be pushing 50 now. Electric Light Orchestra.

        Also yesterday was lost to us Marilyn Chambers, who, before distinguishing herself as a star of screen, grew up…right here in Westport.

        Between her and Paul Newman, and Michael Bolton who wants to move away… Well, at least Michael Bolton wants to move away:) And yes, I know the guy. And I met Nicolette 20 years ago. What a babe.

        • MicroTehnicus(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 4:08 am

          …my introduction to pop music. Could be revived as the anthem of markets climbing a wall of worry…

          You got me runnin’ goin’ out of my mind,
          You got me thinkin’ that I’m wastin’ my time.
          Don’t bring me down,no no no no no,
          I’ll tell you once more before I get off the floor
          Don’t bring me down.

          http://tinyurl.com/cpbt96

          Greetings to all from Ottawa, Canada.

          MT

      • Johnny(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 9:29 pm

        Grym, I agree there can’t be too many non-traders in this market. It’s just too treacherous. A tell for me is the way some stocks move e.g. GS news of better-than expected 1st qtr earnings and GS closes @115.11 -15.04.

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 10:37 pm
          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 11:11 pm
          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 11:40 pm
          • OT(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 12:09 am

            I don’t remember much, if anything, about the ’30s, but do remember the early 40s. We lived on a farm and were nearly self sufficient. Sold the crops in town and had “store bought” clothes and a few other things. Had no electricity and no car/truck. Had an outhouse in which the Sears catalog was used exactly as stated in jokes.

            After working in the city, I am now retired in the country. One of the things I find perplexing is that we are supposed to be in a recession/depression and my current year tax assessment (just received) is up 20% from last year. Two things I wonder: 1. Will people living on pensions be taxed off their property? 2. Are all the government idiots in Washington?

            BTW, Craig, I found your post interesting.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 11:50 am
          • Les(118083 comments)-
            April 15, 2009 at 11:57 am
  45. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 5:41 pm

    It does seem odd why Goliath GS would go after petty blogger Mike Morgan until you read the full interview…

    “Goldman Sachs is attempting to shut down a dissident blogger who is extremely critical of the investment bank, its board members and its practices. The bank has instructed Wall Street law firm Chadbourne & Parke to pursue blogger Mike Morgan, warning him in a recent cease-and-desist letter that he may face legal action if he does not close down his website.”

    http://tinyurl.com/d53bqr

  46. TennVol(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 5:54 pm

    The German owners of the company I worked said “We all know that the Global Recession is America’s Fault”. I’m curious what my fellow Caraistas would offer on:

    Is it America’s Fault?

    Does this reflect the international perspective on the recession?

    • mayhem991(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 6:23 pm

      Everyone wants to blame someone else. If they were blameless Germany would not be effected by the “recession.”

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 8:18 pm

      Yes, I would say it originated here, but others were quick to hop on the gravy train and are now using it any way they can.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 8:30 pm

        The blame for global recession can be spread far and wide. How about China for just one aspect, as they pegged their currency to the $US… How is that a responsible thing to do from a free trade perspective?

    • seadog(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 11:08 pm

      No, universal greed and stupidity are to blame (yet again). Just look around the world to see which banking systems are in a mess. In the OECD the best rated banking systems are Canada and Australia with European and US banking well down. NY has a leash effect that drags other markets after it so the US is the prime mover and Europe in particular has moved in synch because they voluntarily got themselves into the same mess.

  47. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 5:56 pm

    I wouldn’t call 14% getting shaken down hard. But a test was inevitable.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 6:05 pm

      re:>”New FASt Pass holders > all merging into the toll lane …”

      and didn’t I get slapped with one hell of a fine whilst eating dinner…

      LET’S GO… MONKEY!

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 6:18 pm

        Les- Hope you’re referring to C, and not FAS. I would stay away from FAS until the shakeout plays out and/or we/(you) see reason(s) to re-enter the trade. To be honest, not sure why you did not exit C at a 10%-in-30-minute profit? A stock that moves 50% in one day is unlikely to continue upward without a little consolidation.

        • Les(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 6:30 pm

          aaahh 2nd, have you learned nothing from my frustrating experiences with the NYSE/NASD?

          Once in, unable to sell! I am the proud owner of citibank shares until pre-market tomorrow.

          No, to the contrary, I am playing the Canadian FAS (x2) – HFU.TO

          And I was almost ready to give back what I scalped this morning. Getting a little relief right now, lets see how this finishes.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 6:41 pm

            With accounts that restrict trading, I prefer to wait for clearly attractive entry/exit points. Trading small swings can be difficult if you’re locked out for any period of time. Have you noticed that killer trades ALWAYS come along?

            All you really need to do is keep streaming quotes on in the background, and inevitably someone throws the perfect pitch 😉

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 6:51 pm

            “I prefer to wait for clearly attractive entry/exit points.”

            Being allowed back into America now, I’ve bought C as a buy and hold. Getting in at 4 was already a decent discount to the opening price and unless catastrophe is to occur this session or opening tomorrow then it should be ok.

            I’ve gone and risked 10% of my portfolio on a financial that could go big, as we’ve suggested is possible here. Frustrated by scalping and inter-week trades with little returns.

            Just the 1 session parole period which is a little nerve wracking.

            Mind you, I can push the panic button if I want. 2 day trades per 5 business days. I’ve extinguished last weeks day trades from my record.

  48. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 6:14 pm

    Decided to do some primitive TA on FXI as a follow up on my FXP purchase (how’s that for backwards 🙂

    Weekly chart, shows FXI is in distribution zone (barely), stoch could roll over soon, definitely decreasing volume throughout this rally, and approaching a declining trend line going back about a year and a half.

  49. found(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 6:23 pm

    Dear 2nd… I had fun with these two over the past week – now I’m done – you? Almost all cash, where’s everyone heading? my mind is spinning with where this market will go next.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 6:27 pm

      found-

      (a) Still completely long in the buy-and-hold portfolio (1/3 financials, 1/3 energy, 1/3 technology).

      (b) All cash right now in the trading portfolio except for 6% positions (each) in SLW and MBI.

      (c) Keeping an eye on KGC.

  50. David(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 6:30 pm

    Since April 2nd, GG is down 13% while KGC is down 21%. In the past, GG and KGC performed very closely, which suggests that the gap will close in the future. So I just bought 300 shares of KGC at $14.71 and placed a buy limit order for 100 more shares at $14 and 100 shares at $13.

    • found(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 6:36 pm

      Just did the same about 5 minutes ago. No reason for this company to lag behind for too long.

      • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 6:52 pm

        I am buying also. Looks like it is at support via CTAB.

        • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 7:02 pm

          going with crowd on this one…chart sets up easy enough for exit too. Still not sure about GOLD or miners right now but a little exposure and CTAB approval is good enough for me.
          Buy 250 shares KGC at Market Day
          04/14/09 14:59 Filled 250 at 14.76

    • David(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 9:04 pm

      I just read the introduction to Bill’s KGC briefing and decided that I can afford a larger position in KGC, especially since I can treat it as a “lateral move” from SWC (KGC has a similar upside potential over the next 2 years with a much smaller risk, as it will benefit from GM bankruptcy rather than being hurt by it).

      So in addition to the 300 shares of KGC I purchased today at $14.71, I also placed buy limit orders for 100 shares at $14.40, $14, $13.50 and $13.

  51. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 6:33 pm

  52. szoya(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 6:40 pm

    Better mousetrap, anyone? Credit Suisse has launched the “Credit Suisse Fear Barometer,” which gets around many of the problems associated with the VIX.

    The index is calculated using 3-month SPX option prices to answer the following question: “If I sell a 10% out of the money call, what put can I buy with the premium I received?” If investors are very worried about a crash lower, you would expect to be buying a much-farther-out-of-the-money put in exchange for the call, while — if investors are confident in a market rally — you would expect to buy a closer to the money put…
    http://tinyurl.com/c22lqm

  53. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 6:45 pm

    Just setting a lobster trap for the hell of it.

  54. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 6:50 pm

    averaged up at 10.5

  55. Finger Lakes(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 7:07 pm

    Still got my FAZ that I bought Friday at the close too. Picked it up for 10.45

    Rob.

  56. Finger Lakes(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 7:39 pm

    Well our 401K is back to 15% off the all-time high reached on November 2007. so, today I pulled it out. I may miss another 10-15% but I’d rather play safe than sorry. and with no way to buy downside protection in the 401K, pulling out is the only option.

    We don’t actively contribute to it but work dumps a random amount of money in there every year as “profit sharing”. So, I do try and maximize our gains in there even though I assume it will be taxed at 75% when we withdraw it.

    Rob.

  57. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 7:42 pm

    I’m pretty sure I just saw a black swan outside my window. And it spoke to me. “Look away”, it said. “Nothing to see here.”

    Then it vanished.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 7:56 pm

      That might have been GS….down almost 12%?

  58. Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 7:50 pm

    Just went to all cash on a nice short term gain with SLW and APA. Lost a little on GG, as usual.

    Weak volume for days now (Quants turned off);
    GS clearly remains in command (cooked books, etc.);
    Obama has no plan … other than support his GS staff;
    GM setting up for bankruptcy (30%+ unemployment in Michigan soon);
    No reversals on Ben’s easing and monetization of debt so far;
    Texas declaring its sovereign status (that’s two states now);
    Further breakdown of fed payroll tax revenue;
    $1 trillion deficit and its only the end of Q1;
    PPI down;
    and the list goes on.

    What’s left to goose this mess?

    • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 7:57 pm

      My intuition says your correct

      My reasoning says your correct

      But my Greed says hey wait a minute…who should I listen to…I chew this over a BLT and hope I am not the main meal.

  59. vinod(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 7:56 pm

    SRS and FAZ

  60. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 7:57 pm

  61. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 8:06 pm

    Cashed out of HFU flat after a days trading.

    night all.

  62. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 8:17 pm

    We need a breather, what’s changed over the last few days?

  63. Seamus(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 8:20 pm
    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 8:28 pm

      Sorry to hear. The summer of ’76 was all about Fidrych, (Nadia) Comaneci, and Pierre Trudeau.

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 10:09 pm

      Thanks for reminding good old days of Fidrych
      He was from Worcester Massachusetts and read plenty of story in Boston Globe

  64. joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 8:24 pm

    Too bad Macy’s doesn’t have July puts and August puts are too expensive.
    Any idea why for some stocks, there are no options on some months? Is there a rule?

  65. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 8:26 pm

    Earnings result seems reasonable to good.

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 8:26 pm

      did you see the amount they estimated for tax expense? $5 Million.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 8:34 pm

        “did you see the amount they estimated for tax expense? $5 Million.”

        No, that doesn’t seem like very much. Perhaps incentive remains for them to increase production capacity in country as opposed to overseas?

      • Finger Lakes(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 8:34 pm

        They’re down from 16.01 at the close to 15.28 after hours so someone doesn’t like their results.

        Rob.

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 8:46 pm

          They might dislike the results a little less in the morning. No position.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 9:01 pm

            Way above their 90 DEMA, today’s volume was low but the last candle looks good. We’ll have to see where the AH/PM battle takes it. AMD getting hit as well but not a bloodbath yet…

          • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 9:04 pm

            No position myself…is INTC giving guidance on Cap Ex? I think it was about 5-7 Billion last I heard…if correct.

          • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
            April 14, 2009 at 11:29 pm

            The 5 to 7 billion investment figure is correct. If INTC is at the $15 level in the morning I will be adding to the 1200 shares I have now.

            I picked up 400 of LOGI yesterday when it was at 11.40. I like their products and they have a whole bunch of new and nice stuff out and I hear rumors of more to be announced. I was at Fry’s to get a backlit keyboard and I reckon Logitech had about 85% share of the shelf space.

            I’m still waiting for Mr. Ballmer to kill off XP. When Win 7 is released that will be the end. All of the IT shops will be upgrading and they won’t be upgrading to old hardware.

        • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 9:03 pm

          “Intel would not provide a formal outlook, but for internal purposes, the company predicted second-quarter revenue that will be flat compared with the first quarter.”

          http://tinyurl.com/c6gpxq

  66. dberryclan(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 8:26 pm

    AIG Exec’s were castigated publicly for their bonus’s.

    Will GS be called to account for their profits?

    Are the Congressional power brokers brave enough?

    Regarding the first international test for the Pres, I cringe at what it might be.

    I hope after he wet’s himself he gathers some thinking people around him, because it will most likely be a doozy…

    bought some KGC leaps and sold some USB calls…….I’m becoming a boring trader 🙂

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 8:37 pm

      dberryclan, I somehow have a nagging feeling that after some semblance of order restored in the financial markets (same old power brokers & HB&B getting more entrenched, nothing will change drastically ofcourse), for political purposes one of the weaker ones will be made scapegoat & taken to task by the talking heads/broken up. There will be a GM like show……

      • Finger Lakes(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 8:41 pm

        If they do sacrifice one of their own my bet is it will be Citigroup.

        Rob.

  67. Finger Lakes(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 8:39 pm

    How much of the 12 Billion they got from Taxpayers through AIG are counted towards their profit? How much of the money the FED loaned them counted towards their profit? How many payments have they received through FNM and FRE as those seem to be taking over the conduit role from AIG?

    I’ll bet most of their trading money they used to make their profit came from these external sources. Without these conduits they wouldn’t have had any money to trade with.

    Rob.

  68. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 8:46 pm
  69. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 9:06 pm
  70. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 9:12 pm

    and its up afterhours.

    scary looking 1 yr chart for sure.

    • SiO2(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 9:50 pm

      The Gamblers’ Beast.

      FAZ gained today $1.75, for a total valuation gain of $35M (actual volume of 205M, “gain” of 358M)
      FAS lost today $1.91, for a total valuation loss of $382M. Actual volume was 371M (“loss” of $0.7B).

      That is a combined staggering market valuation loss of $347M for the day. Did I say it was $60M daily? I think I was wrong. http://nexalogic.com/fasfazloss-o-meter.html

      It’s the beast itself. Somehow people here are always on the right side of the gamble, but others beware! What else can we say.

  71. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 9:18 pm

    issuing 4.4 Billion shares. Now that’s some dilution! nothing quite like buying high and selling low…

  72. Babybear(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 9:25 pm

    FYI, Peter Fisher, managing director of BlackRock, said on Bloomberg that Goldman’s first quarter trading profit is non-recurring in nature, and believes it was mostly due to AIG unwinds.

    Not trading advice.

  73. David(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 9:26 pm

    Placing a sell limit order at $1.52CAD for 2000 shares of PNP.TO I purchased a month ago at $1.02CAD. If these shares get sold, then I’ll still have 5000 more shares, which I’ll treat as my core position and will then add to it on the next significant pullback.

  74. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 10:00 pm

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The Treasury Department said Tuesday it had disbursed another $22.8 million to five banks as part of the $700 billion financial rescue program.
    The department now has paid out $198.8 billion to buy banks’ preferred stock. The government is buying preferred shares as a way to bolster the banks’ capital reserves so they have the resources to resume more normal lending to consumers and businesses.
    The latest round of payments included $9.4 million to City National Bancshares Corp. of Newark, N.J., and $5.1 million to Capital Commerce Bancorp Inc. of Milwaukee.
    Six smaller banks recently became the first to return the government’s money as public and congressional scrutiny of bailout recipients has grown. Banks need regulators’ approval to return the funds.
    Several of the biggest bailout recipients — including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — have said they want to repay the government soon.
    The new payments were made Friday but not disclosed until Tuesday. Under legislation Congress passed in October to establish the bailout fund, the government has two business days to report any new transactions.
    The department on Tuesday also confirmed the release of $5 billion to special divisions of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC to pay their parts suppliers.
    The government last week said that it had opened up a $5 billion financing support program to help auto suppliers keeps parts flowing to GM and Chrysler.
    In the new transaction report, Treasury said it had provided $3.5 billion to a new division of GM known as GM Suppliers Receivables LLC, and another $1.5 billion to a new Chrysler division, Chrysler SPV LLC

    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:31 am

      ALOHA !!

      “WASHINGTON (AP) — The Treasury Department said Tuesday it had disbursed another $22.8 million to five banks as part of the $700 billion financial rescue program.

      The department now has paid out $198.8 billion to buy banks’ preferred stock.”END

      $198.8BIL USD … pure BS!!!

      As of last Friday, April 10th the US TREASURY DAILY STATEMENT lists TARP for the year(6 months)at $303.7BIL USD! They understate it by $104.9BIL USD!

      While they’re at it why not explain what the two mystery line items are that add up to $1.43TRIL USD?

      Why do they LIE? Its right in their own damn financial statement every single day!

      DAMN … this is what the TEA BAG PARTY is about on April 15th! Some of us want to make it known that we know they are inept liars and they aren’t fooling us one bit!

      I can’t wait to see what CELEBS get behind this! My guess is NONE! Its just WE THE PEOPLE! The people that pay for everything … the ones that actually sweat and work 9-5! I only wish I had a 9-5 job! Small business is anything but a 9-5 job!

      The BIG questions is WILL ANY OF CONGRESS GET BEHIND THIS? What politician will attend this rally? RON PAUL is the only one I can think of!

      Remember I’m the MARXIST SUBVERSIVE!

      Hummmmm????

      QUESTION AUTHORITY!

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 3:38 am

        Kaimu- ” Small business is anything but a 9-5 job!” I think that’s about right…Oh, you didn’t mean 9am to 5am?

  75. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 10:03 pm

    I am watching these and they are on fire or so it would appear.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 10:15 pm

      Isn’t gold now down $10 ($888.7) from the 24/hr peak? Seems it hasn’t quite bottomed….

      • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 10:25 pm

        Yes, gold may be an exception. I was looking mostly at Plat, paladium, and silver and todays run up. (ino.com)

        I definately am not a TA expert, but I seem to remember someone on here asking if 880 was the bottom…don’t know but today is higher.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 10:38 pm

          True, I don’t really expect much more if any downside on gold here, it’s nice to see others aren’t trending down (esp: plat). TA – what’s that? (kidding)

        • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 1:51 am

          Good luck tomorrow!

  76. vinod(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 10:39 pm
  77. vinod(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 10:46 pm

    Citigroup Inc.’s plans to issue 4.4 billion new shares won’t move forward until at least Friday, potentially prolonging a short squeeze that has been propelling its stock higher this week.

    The Securities and Exchange Commission has told Citigroup executives that it won’t approve the company’s stock-registration statement until after the New York banking company announces first-quarter earnings on Friday, according to people familiar with the matter. Citigroup previously had told traders that the approval would come in early April.

    Separately, the New York Stock Exchange is showing signs of retreating from plans to create a market for the new Citigroup

  78. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 11:05 pm

    in @7.50 after hours

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 11:32 pm

      I actually only took a small hit today. AG helped. So…FAS @ 7.54 AH.

  79. vinod(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 11:07 pm
    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 11:13 pm
      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 11:15 pm

        2nd
        remember to be long is to be wrong!!!

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          April 14, 2009 at 11:52 pm

          “remember to be long is to be wrong!!!”

          I thought it was long and strong. In any case, if I’m going to be wrong, I’d rather be long than short- if you’re short and wrong, you have a very short life span (for all I know, that’s where the term comes from);)

          What did you expect after gapping up Thursday, Monday, and AGAIN this morning? It had to pull back. (Did I not tag FAZ as the better play this morning?)

      • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
        April 14, 2009 at 11:16 pm

        they have sold some….after all FAS was at 10.xx yesterday :’ )

        25% discount right now.

        Tread lightly.

  80. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 11:10 pm

    Vinod- You made the right call. FAZ scored the winning TD, and I was able to pick up a few discarded FAS wrappers off the field. And I’d rather be backing the car out of the lot right now than heading for the showers with a torn hamstring.

  81. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 11:19 pm

    so with the long bias you have right now what triggers a sell of the fidelity funds?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 14, 2009 at 11:37 pm

      “what triggers a sell of the fidelity funds?”

      I’m hoping that a (ST) top in bullish sentiment will trigger the decision to sell. (The other trigger would be a massive sell-off that leaves me no choice but to get out of the way.) That’s partly why I was concerned about financials taking off again today> it would have been too far too soon, and I would have had no choice but to sell the FIDSX position (which I think has a long way to go). As it was, I’m content with having taken C off the table.

      If I had to guess when it happens, 8500/9000 on the DJIA> an intentionally wide range, which helps to prevent my psyche from becoming locked into a specific number. It’s not the number, but the sentiment, that drives the decision.

      I hope FAS treats you as well as her sister. Can’t tell which is the evil twin.

  82. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 11:21 pm

  83. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 11:40 pm
    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 12:14 am

      India is having national election for parliament going on, once every 5 year, will be over within a month.
      I will be careful to buy India related equity. It can be very volatile.

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 4:37 am

      2nd – how much emphasis do you put in Twiggs? The reason I ask is because I started looking back at some of his postings from October 2007 and again during the late spring 2008 and it doesn’t seem like he was predicting things too well…I guess things can change on a dime with that technical stuff, though…

  84. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 11:56 pm

    Following article from Forbes discusses a certain HB&B involved in some sort of market corner in oil:

    http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0413/096-sachs-s

    (via Jesse’s Cafe)

  85. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 14, 2009 at 11:59 pm
    • casey(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:56 am

      yep

      wasn’t bad but Kaimu lives closer to where it happened

      • kaimu(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 2:53 am

        ALOHA !!

        YES … Big Island, known as HAWAII, not to be confused with the State Of Hawaii. I still get people who call here and ask if we ship to the USA! I used to waste my time trying to educate them that Hawaii is part of the USA, but I gave up and now I just say … “Yes, we do ship to the US of A!”

        QUAKE?
        I didn’t even feel it! I swear every time there is some earthquake or volcano lava flow the media makes it sound like the entire island blew up! I have been here since 1998 and I believe only two earthquakes were severe enough to make me put down my guava mango fruit punch and even then I didn’t even drop the straw! I’m about 20 miles from the epicenter …

        I was in the Simi Valley Quake in 1968 and the Loma Prieta in 1989! Now those are REAL QUAKES!!! People actually died in those quakes. These ones in Hawaii are little girlyman quakes!

        GUAVA DUFF
        Speaking of GUAVA … Bill … Where’s my Guava Duff? I think I would be a rich man if I opened a fast food place that served nothing but LOCOS and GUAVA DUFF! I would also be very fat!

        Wow … I did not know GUAVA DUFF had RUM in it! Is that true Bill?

        Did any of the CTAB Conference 2009 attendees get a chance to eat any Guava Duff? They had that at the Wyndham Crystal Casino. Its a desert …

        Here is the recipe:

        BAHAMIAN GUAVA DUFF
        Ingredients

        * 12-15 large guavas
        * 3 cups flour
        * 4 teaspoons baking powder
        * 1/2 teaspoon salt
        * 1/4 cup sugar
        * 1/4 cup butter
        * 1/4 cup Crisco
        * 2 eggs, separated
        * 2 teaspoons vanilla

        Sauce

        * 1 cup granulated sugar
        * 1 cup butter
        * 2 eggs (or egg whites)
        * 1 tablespoon RUM (or 2 tsp vanilla)

        Directions

        1 Peel and core guavas. Rub cores through sieve to obtain some of the pulp, and mix with cut up guavas. Add sugar to taste.

        2 Beat butter, Crisco with sugar, then beat in egg yokes.

        3 Sieve flour, baking powder and salt and fold into butter/egg mixture. Add vanilla.

        4 Divide dough in 3 balls. Refrigerate 1/2 hour until firm.

        5 Spread out each of the balls on a piece of foil; cover with Guava. Starting at one end, fold into roll.

        6 Cover with foil, place in baking bag and seal. Boil 1 hour in large pot with hot water. Slice and serve warn with Sauce.

        7 FOR SAUCE: Beat egg whites in dish until foamy. Cream butter and sugar in a separate dish until sugar has dissolved. Gradually add egg whites and vanilla and continue beating till smooth. Add to top of warn Guava Duff when serving.

  86. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:09 am

    Noticed that a couple of Education Stocks caught a bid today (ESI,DV) in an otherwise down market. Looking at DV (Devry), I wonder if it might not be a good time to attempt a little range trade with a possible 50% upside, if it stays range-bound. A market downturn, with an extension to this recession, would probably support this kind of issue, I guess. Do your own DD.

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 4:23 am

      Mack – looks like a low risk entry with a stop below $39.

  87. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:12 am

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 12:30 am

      Mark- TYH did not hit my 63.xx bid during market hours, but I see the last after hours trades changing hands at 59.58.

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 1:14 am

        2nd- Looks like you will be able to pick it up PM for less, if you are so inclined.
        Interestingly, my FAS sell/XLF buy/ FAS buy, last Friday and today turned out to be the smart play for an additional 4%…For now.

  88. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 12:33 am

    ..

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 12:46 am

      …never mind.

  89. vinod(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 1:52 am

    By John Collins, jcollins@lowellsun.com

    Gururaj “Desh” Deshpande, founder and chairman of Chelmsford-based Sycamore Networks Inc., among other high-tech companies, struck an optimistic tone at Lowell General Hospital yesterday
    Deshpande is also founder and chairman of India-based Tejas Networks, a manufacturer of optical transport equipment, and lithium battery maker A 123 Systems in Watertown.
    But Deshpande, whose A123 Systems announced in January plans to build a plant in Michigan to supply battery systems for 5 million hybrid vehicles, “or a half-million plug-in electric vehicles per year by 2013,” didn’t come to LGH to sell business leaders an electric car battery.
    Rather, he tried to sell his audience on sharing in his confidence that the downturn in the global economy will turn around — driven by U.S.-based innovations.
    Before co-founding Sycamore Networks, Deshpande was founder and chairman of Cascade Communications in Westford. Between 1991 and 1997, Cascade grew from a one-person startup to a company with $500 million in revenue and 900 employees. In June 1997, Cascade was acquired by Ascend Communications for $3.7 billion.
    Asked if he’s a billionaire, Deshpande smiled and shrugged off the question.
    Among Deshpande’s life “riches,” he counted:
    * The 20 spinoff companies that arose from Cascade. (“It feels like I’ve got 20 grandkids,” he said).
    * The Deshpande Center for Technological Innovation at MIT, one of the world’s leading nonprofit college think tanks, which Deshpande founded with a $20 million donation.
    He came to Canada on sutdent visa

    • bahhumbug(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 1:53 am

      I just received an email that Mr. Deshpande will be visiting my company next week to give a talk. Sounds like an interesting guy. You’ve piqued my curiosity and I think I’ll attend.

  90. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:12 am

    I stated earlier what I think it takes to be a great trader, I should have added that it takes, at the same time, over extended periods, being in a comfort zone but also being in a state of an emotional high.

    Do you recall the movie Apocalypse Now? I think of that often when I put everything I have on the line.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHjWDCX1Bdw

    For the large majority of owners of capital, they have careers and other interests that take precedence. One could say they missed the involvement of Vietnam. That’s unfortunate. Not the killing, of course, which I abhor, but the intensity of emotion and the things we do to control our emotions of the moment. That to me is what is needed to cross the line to becoming a great trader.

    I recall several years ago, while on a friend’s yacht in Toronto harbour, when there was an air show crash right above us that I witnessed. My friend whose back was turned to me was astonished that I was emotionally detached and could calmly relate the moment while he took the time to turn around to witness what I had related. He was astonished. Yet, I looked upon that scene with complete detachment. I was simply an observer. Had I been a trader and this a war theater, I would have been in the midst of the action.

    The point I am making is that the stress of trading had taught me to control my emotions when life (or money) was on the line. I often think that returning soldiers would make good candidates for potentially successful traders. No Hollywood. No make-belief. Just down and dirty. They have been there.

    • bobbyo(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 2:26 am

      Bill,
      Great post, need more of these psychology of a trader story’s.

      • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 2:34 am

        Oh, detachment and discipline…no one told me that I had to learn both attributes when I started this journey…lol.

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 2:47 am

      Patton on War: “… no other human endeavour can match it; compared to war, all forms of human endeavour shrink to insignificance”.

      • FranSix(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 3:58 am

        I tend to think that science is a field unmatched in every other human endeavour, and that any achievement in war really only deserves passing significance as an unmitigated tragedy run by fascist dufus’s.

        But I’m not in the least bit scientific.

        This blog is going right off its bleeding rocker with politics and sounds a lot like a trade union lounge by times.

  91. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:36 am

    zzzz

  92. David(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:42 am

    Placing a sell limit order at $0.9 for the 10 contracts of FAS April $7.50 puts I purchased on Thursday EOD at $0.45, so as to get a nice round 100% gain. Don’t want to hold these puts until the expiration because FAS can have a strong move in the last 30 minutes on Friday and make my options expire. So it is better to sell them while there is still some volatility premium left in them. Maybe FAS will gap down tomorrow and will go up for the rest of the week, and so I am placing a sell limit order on these puts so as to trap the possible down move in the morning while I’ll be asleep.

  93. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:44 am

    From Barry Ritholtz:

    Leave it to the clever boys at Goldman Sachs to turn dross into gold: They have come up with a way to hide massive losses so clever, it requires special comment: The Orphan Month.

    http://tinyurl.com/da3f5n

  94. Otis(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 2:58 am

    Does anyone now how KGC would have a recorded low of $8.41 for trading today? I see it on stockcharts and google.

    TIA

    • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:07 am

      I hit my stink bid exactly today!!

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:11 am

      Otis- Good question. That also showed up as the low on my trading screen. Anyone?
      Nasdaq has the same low and I scanned all of today’s trades and couldn’t find it.

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 3:13 am

        I found it… It was a GS buy.

      • joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 6:12 am

        Guys, how does one get the trade data for the day?

    • Quasi(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 3:14 am

      I would say its probably a bad data tick, doesn’t show up on the 1 min chart. Happens all the time and usually disappears withing 24 hrs, ie trades are checked and then the database is corrected.

      • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
        April 15, 2009 at 3:16 am

        You see it once in awhile and usually it will not be on the chart the next day. I believe its a computer malfunction of some kind. Not positive though.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          April 15, 2009 at 4:28 am

          Someone must’ve sold by accident at that price. Maybe they were going for 14.8? Ouch!

  95. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:47 am

    http://tinyurl.com/cfctgy

    He started Investors Business Daily (IBD).

    Note that he does promote his upcoming book. But there are lots of good advice, especially for beginners.

  96. eemtrader(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 4:50 am

    http://screencast.com/t/rdrFs74i

    waiting for FAZ confirmation

  97. David(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 5:50 am

    I figured that since I am ready to close my FAS puts tomorrow, I can let my SKF run a little longer in the spirit of taking profits *gradually*. So I am setting a sell limit order at $80.50 for 50 shares I bought at $60.50, and keeping another 50 shares to sell at higher prices (say $100).

  98. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:23 am

    waiting to see if gold respects present support.

  99. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 7:52 am
  100. Les(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:21 am

    http://tinyurl.com/dmahnx

    another messy trading day coming up, I fear.

  101. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 9:39 am
  102. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 10:00 am

    I’m not so good at the patterns, but the FSLR daily chart may show a cup and handle. That’s the main pattern I recognize from Vad’s CTAB lectures. The fun part is, it appears to be ready to either break through or fail today…

    It looks like buy on a move above 150, stop at 130. Kind of a big range. 🙂

    Anyone have any opinion on this one?

    FD: No position

    • Lori Smyth(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 11:08 am

      Looks like a good potential Dave, for sure the cup the handle is a little sketchy

    • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
      April 15, 2009 at 11:20 am

      That does not look like a Cup w/handle formation, to me. A true (Wm. J. O’Neil) CwH forms near the highs of a price consolidation. Even so, CwH formations can form at lower levels, but they’re not as valid as the ones written about in O’Neil’s books.

      FSLR looks like its forming another large wedge, similar to the one it formed from mid May of last year until last Sept., when it ultimately broke down with the markets. Note how after the stock fell through the trend line early in Sept., how it rallied back to the lower trendline at $249.90 offering a wonderful short set up.

      Draw a line across the highs set in early Nov. and March, and another across the lows set in mid Nov. and late Feb. of this year; you’ll see the formation.

      JMO

  103. Lori Smyth(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 11:14 am

    Good looking chart on FSLR – better than 4 – 1 R/R on P & F – good eye Dave. Futures are flatlining this a.m. The cup and handle looks weak to me and I think this may be one to put on the radar for a reversal.

  104. Lori Smyth(118083 comments)-
    April 15, 2009 at 8:06 pm

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