Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Thursday, Jun 25, 2009

[5:10am ET] As I sat in the doctor

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231 Comments

  1. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 9:55 am

    The evil axis is at it again. This morning on Bloomberg, and I am sure an interview clip that will be played ad nauseum today, former IBM CEO Lou Gerstner opined that US authorities ought to have a tax of 80% for those who buy in the morning and sell in the afternoon; a 50% tax if you hold for up to a year and zero tax if you hold forever. What total absolute nonsense. That crapola is stuff pushed by the sell side that capital markets are tools for selling “investments” rather than price discovery mechanisms. This is why I continue to stress the difference between trading and investing, and between financial services and the capital markets. As users of capital markets, we trade prices. We are not buying products. Full stop. If you want to give favorable tax treatment to investment products like structured investment vehicles and mutual funds — surely they need the help because of the losses “investors” take — then do so. But stop intervening in the capital markets or else traders will take their marbles to another country.

    • nemo(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 11:48 am

      Arguably, he has put the cart before the horse in a situation that could be considered a Gordian Knot.

      How could anyone consider “investing” for the long-term when you have to hope the officers of the company and the board of directors are complying with their fiduciary responsibility to stockholders? If someone could guarantee that this would occur, than taking a long-term view may be warranted.

      Then again, how do you “invest” when the officers of Bank of America are told by the government to go through with their purchase of Merrill Lynch even though it would be to the detriment of the stockholders? The government is forcing them to abandon fiduciary responsibility.

      How do you “invest” as either a bondholder or stockholder, when the government steps in and tells you you will take x% on the dollar of your investment, regardless of the laws, and by the way, we’ll give X% of the company to this group, and you’ll take what we give you, regardless of the law?

      Having said that, humans are self-interested, so there will always be the bias towards “After ME, you come first” thinking. Neither the laws nor the enforcement agencies have been able to stem the tide, no matter the powers granted them. The government takes care of itself, the officers and boards will likely always take care of themselves, and Mr. Gerstner wants us to “invest” or pay onerous taxation in that environment?

      • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 12:11 pm

        My point exactly nemo. I don’t want to day-trade or even short-term swing trade, but the market is forcing me to. I didn’t create the present instability in markets, but I have to deal with it. So why punish me? Try punishing the reprobates for once.

  2. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 10:00 am
  3. vinod(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 10:01 am

    Crossing back under the 200 day after rally

  4. vinod(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 10:25 am
  5. Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 11:30 am

    Bill said, “For non-professional option traders, then, it is imperative you study implied volatility seasonal patterns.”

    Can someone or Bill suggests a source for such seasonal patterns? TIA

  6. nemo(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 11:31 am

    Good News Bill! Sorry for the stress you had to endure. I’ve done the liquid nitrogen thing a few times.

  7. jdpeak(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 11:43 am

    Hi Bill
    Glad your fine. Take care of yourself; we need more men like you in the world.
    Best wishes,
    JD

  8. aucourant(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 12:12 pm

    I was wondering if anyone has traded stocks in other than US markets, and what are advantages and the impediments for doing so in terms of costs and rules. It would be interesting to compare different countries.

    • allengg(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 1:07 pm

      Perhaps your question should be viewed from a different angle.( aucourant )

      Why would anyone trade on the “big board’ or OTC’s ?
      That sort of crap that Gerstner is spouting will be treated as pure basura in Toronto, Mexico, Singapore etc.

      There is capital gains tax in Canada but not onerous and easily avoidable, even Mexico’s “Bolsa de Valores” looks much safer than NAS-dunk.

    • BOB 47(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 1:23 pm

      Aucourant, I am an American ,when I have been in Ireland, U.K. and Canada in the last year, I walked into brokers offices in each country. I asked if I could open a trading account . In each one I was told , I would need a residence in each country before they would allow me to open one. I don’t know if this is because of terrorism laws or tax laws. Bob.

      • allengg(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 1:26 pm

        Bob: tax laws. And in Canada you must be “resident in the country” to make a trade. Here in Mexico you must prove residency and have a special visa (FM3) to open a trading account, again, taxes. Not drug related in Mexico

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 1:31 pm

        Don’t have to open another account. Just pay IB the appropriate fee for the foreign market data you’re interested in and you have access to global market trades.

        Globalisation’s a bitch when you want to turn back the clock…

        HB&B doesn’t want to play in the same sand pit as us anymore.

        Will be selling and buying GLD and gold related calls and stocks. I don’t see compelling volume in GLD to justify staying long in the straddle. Will see how much volume is behind the miners today – might be dumping a few of them.

      • yvrapx(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 1:52 pm

        You don’t need to be a resident of Canada to open an account BUT unless the broker is leicensed in the State you reside they are offside on SEC rules. What this means is the broker has no protection against you not making good on your trades, liability and litigation risk is the brokers and also sanctions by the SEC. IME very few brokers will deal w/US citizens for the above reasons and IB is your best bet for access. You can thank the SEC and litigious society you live in for ‘protecting’ you from yourself.

  9. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    Good morning.

    Downgrades:

    FSLR – to Hold @ Canaccord Adams
    NKE – to Neutral @ Susquehanna Financial

    Price Target Raised:

    BBBY – from $29 to $33 @ FBR Capital. Market Perform

  10. barry(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 12:26 pm

    “I came across something yesterday, that I yelled across the desk to make certain everyone knew… Recall at least a month or so ago, I told you how China had called for a new reserve currency, replacing the dollar with SDR’s (special drawing rights), which would be a basket of currencies. This news received a ton of publicity… But one thing that didn’t receive a ton of publicity was the fact that President Obama agreed at an economic summit in London that SDR’s should now be used to help stabilize the balance sheets of nations struggling to combat the current crisis.

    Now… On the outside that looks harmless right? Just helping these struggling nations… But! Could this also be a baby step toward a global currency? Could this be a baby step toward a further devaluation of the dollar, and it’s signed off on by the President?

    OK, now here’s the thing that really caught my eye… The IMF is going to issued
    ……………
    “$300 Billion worth of SDR’s. That’s 10 Times… That’s right, I said 10 Times the amount of SDR’s that CURRENTLY EXIST!

    Could this be the facility for China to quietly exchange dollar reserves for SDR’s? Come on! Somebody has got to see this the same way I do!

    I mean, it was just LAST WEEK, that the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC’s) called for a “more diversified international monetary system?” Why, yes, Chuck, it was… Just last week! And then this week, the IMF “just happens” to be issuing 10-TIMES the amount of SDR’s that CURRENTLY EXIST! Hmmmm…

    I probably should stop there… I’ll be accusing people of all sorts of things if I continue on this path… But there’s some food for thought, eh? You won’t see this on TV… They have more important things to show you and talk about, like… The President killing a fly! That’s a really sad thing, to think that our news has come to that! “

  11. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 12:42 pm

    Something to read, if watching the market tape today feels like you’re watching paint dry.

    “Goldman Sachs engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression – and they are about to do it again”

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/16750352/Goldman-Sachs

    Happy trading or tape watching everyone!

    [2nd keep away from UNG!]

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 1:39 pm

      “[2nd keep away from UNG!]”

      Thank you. All those hours spent reading comic books paid off 😉

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 3:03 pm

        Wooooooooow…..you are Superman… UNG the Account Destroyer is no match for you. Good trade!

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 3:41 pm

          Hee,hee,hee….!

          I set a limit sale at 14.45 premarket for the regular session and was out in the first few mins. You gotta take em when they come to you these days.

          Did anyone else catch that whacky whipsaw with TCK premkt and opening mins?

          I feel like i’m at six flags on the roller coaster!

          • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 5:04 pm

            Payx is down 6.25% at 1232 ET although upgraded to Equal Weight by Barclays…others also upgraded are BBBY times two, JCP also and they are increasing, so either Barclays is a red headed step child or PAYX has some problems. I have not looked at its chart or other factors. Nothing against red hair, just a convenient metaphor.

            14 of the 15 highest market capitalization retailers are higher at 1251 ET.

            No advice…no opinions…just observations.

  12. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 12:49 pm

    JCP – Upgraded to Overweight @ JP Morgan

  13. alberio(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 12:51 pm

    Glad to hear you are OK.

  14. papadynamite(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 12:53 pm

    I would like to see you around for a long time, so would your family. So listen to the doctor! Ease up a little! Health is much more important than wealth!

    • salty(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 1:55 pm

      Congratulations on a clean bill of health Bill! I also support the opinions here on having you take it a lot easier, if that’s at all within the realm of possibility given what I can see of your ‘driven’ nature. However, I think that’s “Change we can (all) believe in” — and support.
      s

  15. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 1:11 pm

    Recent comments about this relationship suggested important events will have occurred with this decoupling. Bill also said this could happen and may have suggested that this has happened historically…someone correct me if I am remembering this incorrectly.

    Well, this morning the dollar is stronger and POG is up from the Daily Report.

    Just an observation and not anything else. Worth watching however!

    • dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 1:50 pm

      i was musing about this yesterday,

      my feeling was that if the USD shot up after the FMOC announcement yet gold didnt plunge, that something might be changing in what people are willing to believe about the USD.

      its too early to really say if this is just a blip or the start of something, but its not unrealistic to see gold and the USD rise together before gold truly breaks out to correct the imbalance of the gold/usd which was very different a few months ago,

      check out the value of the USDX when gold has been in the $930 range for the past year or so, in a sense gold has lost ground as it was at these levels when the USD was much higher, so we are seeing a similar decay in gold vs. the USDX as we have in the miners vs. gold, until these relationships change, not much significant can happen imho, as a non-investment professional 😉

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 1:58 pm

        Thanks doc. But assuming that this is as high as gold goes for the day, so walking away from profitable trades. Will reenter intraday any time that POG pushes through 940.

        Otherwise its rinse and repeat call side daily, long on the short side.

        Taken 2.5% on the GLD 92 call, the premium dropped heavily yesterday arvo. Looking to reenter at the lower price today.

        Taken 25% on the SLW 7.5 Jul Put. Letting the 10 SLW call go a bit longer. Let’s see how SLW holds up today.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 3:33 pm

        On the subject of your earlier comments doc:

        “According to Scott Reamer of Vicis Capital, gold and the dollar index has shown an inverse correlation of -.28 over the last 17 years. Now, a correlation of -1 would be a perfect inverse correlation, meaning that every move the dollar index made would be mirrored to the inverse by gold (the dollar falls 1, gold would rise 1).

        As Reamer points out, a correlation of -.28 is not a strong correlation at all. So to claim that gold will spike if the dollar rolls over because the two are inversely related is overly simplistic. A far more reasonable assumption would be to say that should the dollar collapse, gold will rally due to safe haven seeking by investors.”

        http://seekingalpha.com/article/145086-gold-doesnt

        • manx928(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 4:08 pm

          This comment may only be of interest to Canadians, but there’s an interesting scenario being illustrated by CEF.A-T, (the Central Fund of Canada that holds gold and silver). The chart shows a pretty steady rise since April. What we appear to be seeing is a steadier rise when you take the US$ out of the equation, (because it’s valued in CDN$). Maybe it’s a dangerously narrow perspective, but it sure looks like a nice buy to me, i.e. to purchase precious metals in Cdn$s. (Disclosure – I bought some a couple of weeks ago).

  16. thehonesttrader(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 1:54 pm

    Guardian Unlimited reports China should buy more gold because the dollar is poised for a fall and the metal is needed to support the greater international role envisaged for the yuan, a senior researcher with the ruling Communist Party said on Thursday. Li Lianzhong, who heads the economic department of the Party’s policy research office, said China should use more of its $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to buy energy and natural resource assets. Speaking at a foreign exchange and gold forum, Li also said that buying land in the United States was a better option for China than buying U.S. Treasury securities. “Should we buy gold or U.S. Treasuries?” Li asked. “The U.S. is printing dollars on a massive scale, and in view of that trend, according to the laws of economics, there is no doubt that the dollar will fall. So gold should be a better choice.” There is no suggestion that Li, even though he is a senior researcher, was enunciating an agreed party line.

    The Honest Trader Blog

  17. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 1:55 pm

    A dr sent me the following link, saying it confirms what I have been saying about cheating:
    http://www.mindhacks.com/blog/2009/03/dan_ariely_o

    • Ross(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 4:49 pm

      Everyone has an agenda and everyone lies. Just human nature, I guess.

      I had a workout partner a few years back that was in the meat business. He told me that in the packing houses any steer with just a modicum of black was segregated as ‘Angus’ thus assuring a higher price. I love the poop kicking cattlemen as much as anyone but price gouging depending on the colour of steerhide shows an ‘agenda’. My dear Great Uncle, a veterinarian and inspector for the USDA used to opine that it was the marbling fat and not the species that differentiated prime from dogfood. Just a thought before the July 4th BBQ.

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 4:57 pm

        The only thing that matters to cattlemen is price and efficiency of feed use.
        So breed matters only because cross-breeds have hybrid vigor and tend to be more efficient users of feed…IOW more fat and marbling, although there is a temperament/ease of handling issue for some operations.
        Chalk one up to your Great Uncle.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 5:03 pm

        Dunno Ross, I took something else away from that talk.

        He pointed out that if we identify with the cheater than we are more likely to cheat. Yet if we take an oath or swear on the bible then we are not going to cheat.

        Little line I like from a game I enjoy playing – Civ 4. When you research the technology of Philosophy, the little one liner goes as follows:

        “I have gained this by philosophy; that I do what I know is right, that others do from fear of the law” – This quote is ascribed to Aristotle.

        One day we will stop treating children like little apprentice automations and give them the education in ethics and other humanity subjects that human beings aught to learn as part of their repertoire of knowledge.

        Imagine that. We all have a sense of having sworn on the bible (in an allegorical sense) as we go about our dealings with other people.

        • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 6:22 pm
          • Les(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 7:32 pm
          • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 8:29 pm

            No problem. I know that I know much less about Philosophy than you do, except maybe Edie Brochel, if that is how you spell her name.

            I will not get into much about psychology, etc, except to say many schools exist and I take an eclectic approach.

            But I do think our society has dropped the ball when it comes to moral development and reasoning. I am learning about trading and about truth. For example, regarding truth…I am now realizing that I have been perhaps the blind man who is among the other blind men who all are feeling the surface of the elephant and deciding “it is a snake, no it’s a tree. I especially believe now my faith can be strengthened by actual verifiable evidence of God’s existence. I do not know how you feel about such personal matters as this, but I will say this to anyone that will hear. One can rarely be sure of something before giving it a fair shake to paraphrase Proverbs.

            I love that science that ask “HOW” is now in the position to help religions question of “WHY”. Specifically, I visited a website about a year ago called http://www.doesgodexist.org and read it, put it on the back burner, and am now rereading it again. The web site is amazing in its simplicity, wisdom, and logic. It is science based deductive reasoning that leaves one without an excuse for being ignorant of the amazing science that is behind the creation story. The designer/narrator of the web site, a former atheist, talks in concrete detail about why an atheist would not believe in god and how this is scientifically untrue. This is not a “young earth” sojourn however, so beware, it based on know science.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 5:09 pm

        “in the packing houses any steer with just a modicum of black was segregated as ‘Angus'”

        My grandfather used to quickly euthanize any calf that wasn’t solid black, so no one would observe “impurity” in his herd.

  18. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    BBBY – Price Target Raised from $28 to $30 @ Barclays. Equal Weight

    PAYX – Price Target Lowered from $25 to $23 @ Barclays. Equal Weight

  19. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:10 pm

    Wondering if you’ve charted DJIA/SPY/NDQ for possible scenarios.

    • Bev(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 3:06 pm

      Looking but I see nothing. One tough market. Everyday a surprise.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 4:02 pm

        I remember a few days back Bev was saying down, then up, and a pretty graph where she would “load up the truck” around 920 or so. Am I confused, or did she call this one pretty accurately?

        • Bev(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 4:17 pm

          davefairtex

          Is this the chart you were referring to?

          http://tinyurl.com/lg6j57

          As for being confused…I am too…. I never expected this after yesterday’s move. I am wondering if all of this is part of the window dressing for EOQ. If it is, then with the T+3 rule when would be the earliest that the fund managers could sell off and still have their funds showing ownership of certain stocks? Friday or Monday?

  20. number2son(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:14 pm

    Tyler Durden has a post up on the recent Matt Taibbi in Rolling Stone on Goldman Sachs.

    Goldman Sachs: “Engineering Every Major Market Manipulation Since The Great Depression

    Buy the latest issue of RS (I will and I haven’t done so in years) and read it!

    • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 3:35 am

      Refreshing to see some journalism and a reporter with some kahunas. Made me think of Gary Webb. Remember the story reported by poor Gary Webb who supposedly committed “suicide” by shooting himself in the head…TWICE!! yeah….right.

      For those who may not have read by “Dillon, Read, & Co. and the Aristocracy of Stock Profits” by Catherine Austin Fitts – it is well worth the time.

  21. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    Caught an updraft so far this morning.

  22. OldGoat(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=ES U9&o=SPY&a=V%3A15&z=800×550&d=HIGH&b=bar&st=

  23. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:21 pm

    The American Nazi party is grilling Uncle Ben medium rare.

    What got my attention was, when Ron Paul, who I couldn’t give a damn about one way or the other began talking, the cnbc heads talked over his intro and then cut to a commercial. When corporatist agendas collide, the loser is always the citizens.

    Heil Issa, the car thief.

    Oh and please spare me and Bill the complaints about this post.
    I know they’re not really Nazi’s…..Not exactly…

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 2:32 pm

      Facist would probably get less attention.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 2:37 pm

      “I know they’re not really Nazi’s…..Not exactly…”

      Then why do I continue to see visions of Paulson in SS black?

      You vill buy dem out! (CLICK)

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 4:07 pm

      The fact that CNBC short-sheets Ron Paul every chance they get might be an indicator of why giving a damn about Ron Paul makes sense…?

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 4:14 pm

        Good point Mr. Chicken.

        What’s that smell? Grilled cheese?

      • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 5:19 pm

        How does it go…at first they laugh…then ignore…then accept as truth. That is probably simplified, all bets are off when free will is involved in the recognition of truth, as in Government Sachs and the “Great denial of the 2000’s”

  24. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:24 pm

    The path of maximum frustration? My guess would be a sharp spike up in prices regardless of the numbers. No positions.

  25. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:26 pm

    Boy Bill wasn’t kidding. Homebuilders up 3.6% on very nice volume this morning. LEN is a star +12% because it is still losing money – more than analysts expected, in fact. It has done its full daily volume in the first 45 minutes of trading. I’m not sure how losing MORE money than consensus expectations results in a 12% gain on massive volume.

    FD: short LEN (this morning)

    • normzyx(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 7:05 pm

      davefairtex: I’m not sure how losing MORE money than consensus expectations results in a 12% gain on massive volume. FD: short LEN (this morning)

      Short the ‘rumor’; buy (to cover) on the ‘news’!

  26. jock(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:38 pm
  27. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:44 pm

    sounds like kids used to when me and my gang used to bully them in 4th grade…

    “don’t hurt me….you can have my lunch money…”

    Craig, you know as well as I, if you aren’t a multi-multi-millionaire you have NO BUSINESS voting for today’s Republican party.

    • yvrapx(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 2:50 pm

      Issa is a total idiot chasing after Bernanke, zero substance but looking to make a name for himself. Perhaps if these politicos spent some time formulating decent policy and making decisions that would move the US forward instead of distraction we could concentrate on trading.

  28. greg(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:47 pm

    Bill,
    I think we might have had this discussion a couple of years ago. Has your doctor treated you with Flourouracil Cream 5% yet. I use it every couple of years now for the treatment of pre cancers on my face, neck and arms. One applies it for two weeks daily and it causes the cancer cells to react and blister. Then they turn to scabs and fall off. One’s face feels and looks new again with two weeks of stopping the treatment. It is worth it if you have not tried it yet. One can be pretty scary looking during treatment though. You need to go into hidding for a couple of weeks. At least you can get a heads up on how your protective measures are working and you can get ahead of the cancers forming before they can take off.

    • Bert(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 10:30 pm

      I have had success with mashed garlic applied to a spot overnight.

  29. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 2:47 pm

    that was Kicinich earlier…I can’t tell these jerks apart.

  30. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    UUP @24.14 has broken above it’s 10 day downward trendline and my 30 day horizontal trend line @ 24.10, next stop could be 24.17 and 24.32

    If UUP cannot stay above 24.10 by EOD then I’ll consider opening a small position in TBT, and take other actions.

  31. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:07 pm

    of the time I gave David Shaywitz a good shellacking during 2nd grade recess just for being a jerk……Those were the good old days when you could really express your feelings, right? The jerk went on 3 years later, by the way, to beat me out for 5th grade class president because he knew all about fillibusters, senatorial majorities and that kind of nonsense, and the other kids were buffalo’d by his B.S. I was mortified, being beaten by such a demonstrable loser. It must have been how Jerry Ford felt in ’76. Ok, he was a collossal loser too.

    I never did forget that incident, btw, in 5th grade, though no further measures were taken:)

    Always wondered what happened to that kid. Probably wound up packaging CDO’s.

    Is Yamana finding support at the lower pivot? Will the market survive this grilling incident?

    I knew there was somnething highly suspect about the earlier rise in AUY and did not buy. Standing aside for now.

    What’s for lunch? Grilled cheese?

  32. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:07 pm

    I have never heard Bernanke say those phrases so many times.

    What happens to him, or doesn’t happen to him, will clearly show us whose dining table our elected officals eat at every night.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 5:49 pm

      When asked if GM and Chrysler would have a better chance of getting federal government contracts than Ford Bernanke decided he would need to think about it.

      An amendment is proposed to prevent government ownership of private companies to avoid just such conflicts of interest.

      These “hearings” are just too bad to watch. Great material for late night TV though. Or… picture Chevy Chase and Jane Curtain working with this.

      “Bernanke, you ignorant @$#@%^!!”

  33. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:09 pm

    RBS, which is 70 per cent owned by the British Government, suffered losses of $59.3bn in 2008, the largest of any global bank according to the annual survey of 1,000 financial institutions to be published next month by The Banker.

    It was closely followed by Citigroup, which racked up losses of $53bn and another ailing US bank in Wells Fargo, which lost $47.7bn.

  34. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:13 pm

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 3:27 pm

      observing double bottoms on TYP on the 10 minute chart 2nd. It might peak during the day before dropping around closing. That be the case I might join you.

  35. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    this one is very well applicable to trading psychology as well

    http://blog.ted.com/2009/06/philip_zimbardo.php

  36. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:38 pm

    please drink some more cool aid

    http://www.tinyurl.com/nyugrad

    • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 4:05 pm

      Call me crazy but I am getting pretty bullish on airliners. They have used the recession as the needed excuse to cut staff and scale down operations. Other players have left the industry entirely. Those who remain are enjoying lower fuel prices and more efficient routes while demand stablizes. They days where every airline was flying the same routes with half-empty planes is over. There will still be turmoil but those airlines that make it through this period will be in a much better position to regain market share.

      Disclosure I am long CAL @ avg. 8.75 and UAUA @ 3.54

  37. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:46 pm

  38. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:50 pm

    thinking about it, maybe thats how they plan to prop up the bond market. All the 401K money would flow there as people have been bitten by stock market.

  39. ChrisM(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:50 pm

    Apologies if already posted:
    http://tinyurl.com/ljog9d

  40. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:56 pm

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 6:40 pm

      Minor losses. The price of playing counter trend.

  41. photogray(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    Please do. One of the great things in my life has been moving to the Pacific Northwest 7 years ago. Almost every bay or inlet has a place. We don’t travel far now for a quiet spot.
    I would have to assume that where you are Bill has the same potential. Turning off the wheel in your head….thats another matter.
    I will admit that I don’t want you to reduce your exposure to us!!!
    Take care of yourself and your loved ones. Money and accolades are all really nice but they you and your circle are really all that make your day.
    Peace from North Puget Sound

    • salty(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 4:03 pm

      I’m taking your words to heart–I’m outa here tomorrow to go sailing on Georgian Bay with 2 dear friends…finding a cove to drop the hook and reflect.
      s

    • FireFly(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 5:45 pm

      I am trying to learn to slow down as well. I am happy to report i will be taking a vacation next month the first time off for me all year… (note to self take care of ME!)

      Bill> I am glad you are really OK and yes a nice hat will look good on you with your drink in hand… :)

  42. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:00 pm

  43. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:02 pm

    “In the latest overview of housing and the credit crisis, T2 Partners LLC assembled an in depth, excellently documented case on why the pain in housing is not about to end quickly. One eye opener in the report is the estimate, by type of mortgage borrower, of negative equity. T2 shows the following stats: 73% of OptionARMs, 50% of subprime, 45% of Alt A and 25% of prime mortgage loans are underwater. Combine this with a weak economy, job losses and negative income growth and the potential for additional huge write-downs on residential mortgages seems inevitable.”

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/144554-big-banks-i

  44. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:03 pm

    Looks like we are getting that “large move” from the small change in the McClellan Oscillator this past Tuesday.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 4:10 pm

      So Bev, Is this the lipstick on the pig before we have Bacon on Tuesday?

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 4:18 pm

        Craig

        LOL..let me check my crystal ball here. When this sells off I bet you it will be fast and hard.

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 4:21 pm

          Hey, you’ve been doing alright so far….LOL!

        • salty(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 4:27 pm

          Sure glad your crystal ball is clear Bev! Mine’s foggy and rain bound. My sense (and plan) is that we will get a upward push where I intend to lay off more stock, perhaps even initiate some shorts, then see a plunge. Pop and drop.
          s
          EDIT – Watching spx…could hit 920 where I’ll begin peeling out. Also keying in on bkx, xlf and specifically bac and wfc for tells.

          • Bev(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 4:29 pm

            Salty

            My crystal ball looks more like an “8 Ball”… you know the kind you turn over and it gives you the answers. This move today could of well been “down” but it was the the small change in the McClellan Oscillator this past Tuesday that had me looking for it.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 4:58 pm

            “My crystal ball looks more like an “8 Ball”…”

            Mine has the same triangular window along with an integrated GPS function and internet link… 😉

            http://magic8ballonline.com/8ball/

  45. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:04 pm

    Seems that occurred to me last night, but as a gap-up open. Should have more confidence in intuition.

  46. nemo(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:05 pm

    Get ready for what the WSJ calls “the largest tax increase in history” that’s why we shouldn’t vote for the Dems either Sharky-they’re all liars, but what they’re doing is good for us, so it’s o.k. to lie about it.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124588837560750781

    “Even as Democrats have promised that this cap-and-trade legislation won’t pinch wallets, behind the scenes they’ve acknowledged the energy price tsunami that is coming. During the brief few days in which the bill was debated in the House Energy Committee, Republicans offered three amendments: one to suspend the program if gas hit $5 a gallon; one to suspend the program if electricity prices rose 10% over 2009; and one to suspend the program if unemployment rates hit 15%. Democrats defeated all of them.

    The reality is that cost estimates for climate legislation are as unreliable as the models predicting climate change. What comes out of the computer is a function of what politicians type in. A better indicator might be what other countries are already experiencing. Britain’s Taxpayer Alliance estimates the average family there is paying nearly $1,300 a year in green taxes for carbon-cutting programs in effect only a few years.

    Americans should know that those Members who vote for this climate bill are voting for what is likely to be the biggest tax in American history. Even Democrats can’t repeal that reality.”

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 4:36 pm

      Nemo – Some hefty increases are in the pipeline, a GOOG search produces an arms-length list… I’m probably preaching to the choir?

      “SCC sets 2nd hearing on Appalachian Power rate-increase plan”

      “MEDIA GENERAL NEWS SERVICE
      Published: June 6, 2009

      The State Corporation Commission has scheduled a second public hearing — this one in Southwest Virginia — on a proposed electric rate increase by Appalachian Power.

      The proposed 13.1 percent rate increase, the bulk of which will be addressed in the hearing, has generated controversy among residents and Southwest Virginia legislators because the request comes during a recession and on the heels of a 31.3 percent rate increase last year from the utility that serves most of Southwest Virginia.”

      ———————————-

      Meanwhile in China, sublimated toxic industrial waste is recycled into drywall products and electronic/plastic waste discarded by Americans is burned in open pits instead of recycled. The typical manufactured product life-cycle results in 8-lbs of waste for every 1-lb of product.

      Everyday “low” prices!

  47. thehonesttrader(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:05 pm

    The article is too long to post here but if interested check it out

    http://thehonesttrader.blogspot.com/2009/06/this-i

    seems to sync with some of Bill’s thoughts

  48. jdb633(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:17 pm

    I’m starting to salivate at the possibility for a great entry into S&P short at eod today. Only thing concerning me is EOQ window dressing coming up…

    Dave

  49. Grasshopper(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:22 pm

    That this market is going to steam upwards and wipe out the shorts one last time – still too much bearish sentiment in my opinion.

  50. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:26 pm
    • Les(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 4:31 pm

      Bravo Bev. Important piece of info that I forgot to pass on – that of the inevitable decline following FOMC days. Apologies.

      Having said that now, let’s watch a short squeeze happen this afternoon :p

      AND we have a shooting star on the SPX yesterday. That’s a reliable bearish reversal symbol.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 4:47 pm

      “fireworks coming into the close today.”

      Can someone help clarify this technical terminology? My current interpretation is rally into close?

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 4:59 pm

        Sorry Chickenpookie..

        that comment was in reference to the Cobra chart and his call for a red close today based on previous closes after the Fed meetings. So with us being up currently and based on his theory, then we would have to have a big sell off by the end of day. The possible big sell off is what I meant by fireworks. I will be more clearer in the future. 😉

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 5:02 pm

          “I will be more clearer in the future. ;-)”

          Please Bev, try to be more gooder. LOL!

    • normzyx(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 7:29 pm
  51. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:35 pm

    “Random Thoughts:

    The tailing action in the indices is somewhat disappointing.

    Once again, the sectors look questionable. Many are set up as First
    Thrust.

    Continue to look to establish positions on the short side. I’m
    seeing setups in a variety of areas but mostly Metals & Mining and
    Energy.

    Again, I’d rather the market just go straight up but we have to
    play the hand that’s dealt.”

  52. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:39 pm

    This orange marking to me is a zone of interest. Mr Cara in the past has mentioned about the closing of below /above the 920 mark. If we close above this zone the bears I believe are on the run again.

    http://tinyurl.com/kle933

  53. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    JSMINESET.com which i know many of us read here daily posted the usual “china buying gold” line and pointed to this story that claims a sr. official from the communist party said to buy more gold.

    upon reading hte story we realize that in fact he never once says to buy more gold, only energy resources and commodities, but is very very careful in his statements not to suggest an outright buying of gold. talk of the yuan becoming the reserve currency as a reason to buy more gold is like saying a 30 year old should start stocking up on bengay for when they turn 70, sure they will have to at some point but its such a far away reality.

    this article infuriates me because it only adds fuel to the forest fire of misplaced “the chinese are buying gold, they are smarter that the west, so ill buy gold”… its BS plain and simply, china continues to buy mass amounts of US debt, the rest is just talk considering how much they are devauling their own currency. dont believe the hype, last time we had this kind of news gold spiked then collapsed. be careful, china’s economy isnt booming like people claim, its just a byline for commodity fund managers to sell you their ish.

    http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/25062009/323/update-1-chin

    UPDATE 1-China should buy gold to hedge dollar fall

    By Zhou Xin and Alan Wheatley BEIJING, June 25 (Reuters) – China should buy more gold because the dollar is poised for a fall and the metal is needed to support the greater international role envisaged for the yuan, a senior researcher with the ruling Communist Party said on Thursday.

    Li Lianzhong, who heads the economic department of the Party’s policy research office, said China should use more of its $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to buy energy and natural resource assets.

    Speaking at a foreign exchange and gold forum, Li also said that buying land in the United States was a better option for China than buying U.S. Treasury securities.

    ‘Should we buy gold or U.S. Treasuries?’ Li asked. ‘The U.S. is printing dollars on a massive scale, and in view of that trend, according to the laws of economics, there is no doubt that the dollar will fall. So gold should be a better choice.’

    There is no suggestion that Li, even though he is a senior researcher, was enunciating an agreed party line.

    However, a debate is swirling in China about how the country can reduce its exposure to the dollar and to U.S. assets in case America’s ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policy rekindles inflation and erodes the value of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

    To that end, China has said it will buy up to $50 billion worth of bonds denominated in Special Drawing Rights, the International Monetary Fund’s unit of account, to be issued by the IMF.

    Chinese companies, at Beijing’s bidding, are also snapping up energy and commodity supplies around the globe to fuel its fast-growing growing economy.

    Sinopec, China’s largest oil refiner, agreed on Wednesday to buy Swiss oil explorer Addax Petroleum Corp for $7.24 billion in China’s biggest overseas acquisition.

    China disclosed on April 24 that it had increased its holdings of gold to 1,054 tonnes from 600 tonnes since 2003.

    However, China’s foreign exchange reserves have grown so fast over the same period that gold’s share of the stockpile, the largest in the world, has shrunk.

    Li cited the high share of gold in the foreign exchange reserves of the United States, Italy, Germany and France, to argue that China’s gold holdings, which account for about 1.6 percent of its reserves, are too small.

    REFORMING THE SDR

    China does not disclose the composition of its currency reserves, but bankers assume around 70 percent of it is held in dollar assets.

    China is the largest single holder of U.S. Treasuries, with $763.5 billion at the end of April, according to U.S. Treasury data..

    Analysts say this data set understates the true number as it does not capture paper bought through dealers in London or elsewhere.

    Li said a second reason for buying more gold would be in anticipation of the yuan one day becoming a reserve currency.

    The yuan is not convertible on the capital account, meaning it cannot be freely traded for other currencies for financial transactions that are not related to trade.

    This rules out the yuan’s use as an international reserve currency, for central banks would not be able to convert it quickly if necessary.

    But, in a very preliminary step towards that goal, China is paving the way for greater use of the yuan beyond its borders.

    The People’s Bank of China has arranged currency swap deals with six countries since December totalling 650 billion yuan ($95 billion) so that trade and investment with China can be conducted in yuan, not dollars.

    And China will soon allow selected firms in the southern province of Guangdong that trade with Hong Kong to settle their transactions in yuan, or renminbi.

    ‘If the yuan should go international or become a reserve currency, China needs more gold to back that,’ Li said.

    When the yuan does become an international currency, which Li acknowledged was a long way off, he said the composition of the SDR should be reformed to include the Chinese currency.

    Ideally, in the long term, the SDR would be made up of the dollar, euro, sterling and yen and yuan, each with a weighting of 20 percent, Li said.

    The SDR is currently made up of the dollar (with a weighting of 44 percent), the euro (34 percent), the yen (11 percent) and sterling (11 percent)

    The four currencies in the SDR, which must be convertible, are those issued by Fund members with the largest share of global trade. The weights assigned by the IMF are based on the value of exports and the amount of reserves denominated in those currencies.

    The composition of the basket is reviewed every five years. the next review is due in 2010.

    (Reporting by Zhou Xin and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Ken Wills)

  54. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:58 pm

    mine keeps coming up “ask again later”.
    It’s starting to annoy me.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 5:14 pm

      Mine says: “You may rely on it” My question was: “Will the market close green”

      http://magic8ballonline.com/8ball/index.cfm?go=yes

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 5:17 pm

        CP

        LOL

        Just like mine… it said “Cannot predict now”

      • salty(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 5:44 pm

        lol…question: Where will the sp close? answer: It is certain. Hey, I just asked the wrong question! It is certain it will close…and that’s about as certain as I am about anything to do with the markets these days. 12 months out? No sireee…not me.
        s

  55. nemo(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 4:59 pm

    I commented earlier…for me it’s not about greed, in the sense that if I felt it would be more profitable, I’d hold on longer.

    I simply don’t trust the market, the government, or corporate chieftains, I have “invested” and paid dearly.

  56. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:00 pm

    Does anyone believe Ben Bernanke, Princeton Professor doesn’t remember what transpired in December 2008 when he remembers 1929 like he was there?

  57. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:02 pm

    What is your take on what I posted above?

    “…if all of this is part of the window dressing for EOQ. If it is, then with the T+3 rule when would be the earliest that the fund managers could sell off and still have their funds showing ownership of certain stocks? Friday or Monday?”

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 5:19 pm

      Bev,
      The action before has been to run it up for a feel good Friday, so the earliest would have to be Monday. My guess is positive futures into Monday AM to draw in J6P Monday AM and then have an early fourth of July fireworks show Monday afternoon.

      The T-3 would be Monday since the 30th is Wednesday.

      Edit: Wait, my eyes are dead or my calendar is wrong. Tues is the 30th so we could see it tomorrow.

  58. David(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:23 pm

    If the market is going to move sideways for a while, then it would make sense to take some profits close to the upper boundary of the range. So I have just placed a sell limit order at $9 for the shares of SLW I recently purchased at $8 (if executed, it would give me a profit of 0.22% of my portfolio).

  59. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:27 pm

    Likely right….I trust this price action as far as I can throw it.
    Pretty predictable….greed that is.

    Certified herds (usually dairy) worry about this type of thing because they are inspected for certification.

    I know a dairyman that had cert. Guernseys and his dogs sorted the cattle.
    The inspector was there and he said, “I think we have a problem”.
    The dairyman asked why and he said “your dog let in that Holstein”.

    He answered, “my dog can tell a black factored Guernsey from a Holstein, can’t you?”

    Grandpa was just trying to avoid trouble.

  60. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:35 pm

    TCK intraday capitulation 6 rsi…looking for a build into the close.

  61. M R Ducks(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:36 pm

    Being a market “kindergartner” I read a lot of lofty sounding blogs (Jesses Cafe, Bill Bonner, Automatic Earth, Mish, Danielle Park, etc) that often profess without any self-doubt, completely opposite viewpoints on this general question of what lies ahead for our society… inflation, deflation or perhaps some kind of long term stagflation. Everyone I read all sound like they clearly know what they’re talking about.

    Seems the more I read the less sure of anything I become.
    Gridlock happens and so I do nothing. I would say I am not alone in my stasis.

    As many of us here sit in the doldrums holding up little more than a “wet finger” trying to give ourselves a clue to determine from which direction the next big wind is going to blow.. inflation, deflation or something other, I am wondering what some of the more experienced (and prolific) writers and readers of the Cara Community think/feel/believe/guess as to what lies ahead for, say, the next 12 months or so.

    Anyone here bold enough to put yourself on record?

    • Ross(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 6:03 pm

      After 42 years in the ‘Biz’ and a flip of my lucky Morgan, I’ll take a stab.

      INFLATION WILL BEAT OUR BRAINS OUT!

      I expect 10% to 20% annual inflation within 3 to 5 years. It may in some ways mirror Great Britain between 1960 and 1980. Sad days they were.

      This era feels like the 70’s but will be somewhat different. One strategy would be to buy long lived income producing assets with fixed long term debt. Think CRE with a 12% cap rate.

      Just one opinion out of a gazillion.

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 6:17 pm

        I want to mention that inflation is both inevitable and desirable. Yes, desirable….Not for any individual saver/wealth owner, but for society in general, as viewed as an organism. Without inflation there can basically be no growth. Now I’m talking a healthy rate here, not Weimar Germany.

        Without inflation your house would never “appreciate”. Without inflation the money supply couldn’t expand, denying new comers the ability to borrow and pay interest to buy YOU property. Without inflation, you would indeed have economic stagnation in the context of a gold standard, which, I’m sure Kaimu agrees, would best serve those who own the gold. A new aristocracy.

        I do realize that “our way of life”, which has ALWAYS involved paying back yesterdays harder-money loans with tomorrow’s inflated currency is what makes the game work. Plain and simple.

        Damn right gold’s going up, sooner or later, it’s INEVITABLE unless they discover some massive, 3 mile cube block of solid gold somewhere in the earth and dig it up. I’d love to own that piece of land. But they’d kill me immediately and take it by eminent domain. Damn I hate the P and Z.

        • FranSix(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 6:18 pm

          The whole argument about inflation/deflation is rather moot unless you have a definitive case staring you in the face. We had the definitive case for inflationary legerdemain that blew out in 2000, and the gold price bottomed. So the definitive case for an advance in the price of gold is deflation, or better described as a contraction of credit and the scarcity of money.

        • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 6:25 pm

          I meant to say “darn”.

          You know, when you stop to think about it, the administrators of a country would have to be crazy to even consider a gold standard. In fact, the very notion is probably totally unworkable. It probably seems to them as wacky as picking a mate via an astrological reading or believing in the prognostications of fortune cookies.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 6:39 pm

            ah man!, you are dishing out gems of thought today…..really serious, no sarcasm.

          • nemo(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 7:28 pm

            While I’m on a roll…they have to solve Health and Social Security. I’d make an investment suggestion but it will probably be interpreted as the double entendre I thought it might, therefore, out of respect for Bill, I shall refrain. Let’s just say it is a petroleum based product

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 8:57 pm

            “Let’s just say it is a petroleum based product”

            Napalm is a petroleum based product.

          • johnuk(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 9:06 pm

            http://tinyurl.com/38blta

            In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

            This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.

            by Alan Greenspan
            1967

          • FranSix(118083 comments)-
            June 25, 2009 at 9:34 pm

            The following comments came up today on BNN.CA:

            http://watch.bnn.ca/clip187264#clip187264

        • manx928(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 7:09 pm

          I’m not convinced that appreciation of real estate or other assets is the reason itself why inflation is good. If there was simple inflation of common assets in step with other inflating costs, then it would be a balanced situation – neither good nor bad, because you could still sell your house for x number of apples 10 years from now.

          The only point about the desirability of inflation that I was ever convinced of was that inflation motivates people to buy something now, because it will be more expensive later. Conversely, if you think it will be cheaper in the future, you might as well wait – and that’s a recipe for a stalled economy.

      • nemo(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 6:31 pm

        Add that to the massive Carbon Tax, major recipe for stagflation

        • Shiva(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 6:36 pm

          nemo, i am really getting worried abt this presidente & his troupe…. Looks like they hv come back with a vengeance to raise taxes and change the structure of the society to a different model. Yday i was watching a townhall Q&A on health care reform. Of all the crap going on, why are they attacking health care now, people are losing food on the table & health care is priority?

        • FireFly(118083 comments)-
          June 25, 2009 at 6:39 pm

          Nemo You cracked me up and I laughed out loud and got a little spit on my screen!
          Stagflation love it…;)

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 6:20 pm

      One thing to consider. Just the US Fed & European central bank has added about 3T of liquidity. Other central banks have pitched in as well, including Australia. There was a recent report how Australian govt is revising its GDP estimates downward. All are fighting some serious deflation or stagflation here, will they succeed or not, i dont know

  62. David(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:43 pm

    So as to profit a little more from the sideways action of the market, I just sold July $15 calls on UNG at $0.65 for 1/6 of my position. After all the trading I did in UNG, the cost basis of my position is around $14.30, so the sales price of $15.65 (which I will get if the covered calls I just sold get executed) will give me a reasonable profit for a part of my position (in the spirit of taking profits gradually as position rises).

  63. FireFly(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:53 pm

    interesting>>
    Junior miners in Canada need to watch the swings in commodity markets to best gauge the timing on forays into capital markets, where windows of opportunity are opening after a long drought, investment bankers say.

    Few have been harder hit by the global recession than the small miners and explorers that depend so much on external financing to survive until they can discover the mineral troves that can be sold on to bigger players.
    (more click on link)
    http://bit.ly/2e8d0z

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 6:15 pm

      I think this is definitely the situation, though the window of opportunity for financing developing projects is about to close again, with the onset of the bear market.

      Some considerations to bear in mind are still whatever drill results are tabled into the fall, since summer season is upon us.

      It may mean that the bear market will drag down equities that are already undervalued in the gold sector.

      So the opportunities to accumulate in the gold sector would be in the usual seasonal time frame of July – September, unless the price of gold stages a massive rally. Even so, a very firm gold price hasn’t led to sectoral interest in the junior miners.

  64. holdenll(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    I am taking BMY off the short list today…I recommended it as a short when Bill asked us on June 2nd which Cara 100’s we would short…using 20.20 as my basis (mid point between open and close on June 2), I cover at 21… 3% loss….Cant win them all but wanted to be on the record.

    I currently do not have any Cara 100 short recommendations although POT and MYGN are looking as likely candidates.

  65. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 6:00 pm

    GSAT – Anybody know about this one as an infrastructure play? Their satellite launch is 7/1/09… But it seems the balance sheet is horrific.

    Not sure if there’s anything to this, their currently advertised internet speeds aren’t very inspiring and don’t have much info on the new satellite except it will serve rural areas and is LTE and WIMAX licensed…

    http://www.comsearch.com/newsletter/WirelessPulse….

  66. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 6:06 pm

    “SPY extended the intraday rally into the trendline which will cause another rejection in the second half of the day.

    This should be the final attempted rally before the continuation towards the first swing target around ES=840.

    In bear markets , negative news like GDP we had this morning usually trigger short covering rallies in the morning. That was one of the reasons I said I was expecting a rally from the open. However, generally it is little hard to pinpoint the exact intraday tops for this rallies as they are driven by panic and emotion but it is almost guarantee that they fade in fairly short period of times.

    Watch leading sectors like Real Estate and Financials which has been showing clear weakness all day.

    Staying short as I was.
    Posted by Atilla Demiray “

  67. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 6:10 pm

    Taking profits on naked short puts in the above. I believe a lot of the action today is end-of-quarter window dressing.

    btw, a generally reliable indicator for timing short-term direction is the RSI 2 day on a daily chart. If you look at FXI, TLT and OIH, for example, you will see that all are close to a reading of +90 which is close to maximally overbought and very frequently will anticipate a reversal in the next day or so. Doesn’t mean it’s a big reversal, more of a topping out, but if you are trying to time a near-term top and want to lock in some profits or to adjust a position to better hedge a reversal, I think you will like it.

    • Bev(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 6:23 pm

      jmorris1950

      Interesing… I’m backing testing it now. Thanks!

  68. papadynamite(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 6:21 pm

    Head $7.73, Shoulders $8.23, $8.29, Neckline $8.85
    I would love to see breakout! Full position at $8.42

  69. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 6:26 pm

    I should have mentioned that readings lower than +5 indicate a near-term bottom and a reversal higher. Doesn’t mean it’s a big reversal but if you want to time an exit on long puts or short calls, or an entry using short puts or long calls, it generally works pretty well.

    A recent example is DBA.

    Lastly, the RSI(2)is literally only predictive from 1 to maybe 5 days out. It has no predictive use I can determine in predicting the behavior of longer term trends.

  70. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 6:36 pm

    Fleeing to treasuries before a drop?

    • jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 7:18 pm

      I usually have a position in TLT so I watch it a lot.

      There has been a lot of relatively quiet accumulation in TLT if you look at the OnBalance Volume (http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/o/onbalancevolume.asp) on the weekly chart. This is very different from what you will see in SPY, IWM, QQQQ, XLF, etc., where there has been little accumulation and I think this may turn out to be meaningful.

      On the other hand, TLT is getting overbought on both the daily and weekly charts according to RSI(2). Moreover, TLT is also getting ready to test the 50dMA and also is testing an important Fibonacci level at 94.25 on the daily chart.

      My guess is that unless TLT breaks this resistance very quickly, then near-term (2-5 days) it stagnates or reverses a bit. However, the OnBalance volume says the overall upward trend is intact and it’s gathering the energy to go higher.

      So, this is why I took some profits today and, in so doing, also got a tad shorter in the belief it weakens very near-term. Since I have a JUL inverse straddle even if TLT goes sideways I’m still doing the right thing. If I am right overall, I take a little bit more off the table next week and then reposition for another leg higher. We’ll see what happens…

  71. papadynamite(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 6:43 pm

    Keep your eye on $9.41. A breakout could send it up to $9.79 initially.
    Full position at $9.10

  72. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 6:52 pm

    is a late-day breakout getting ready to happen? Look at minor resistance.

    SLW also having a day already

    PAPA D…we seem to be thinking alike on this thing…AUY upmove looks inevitable, but hey, this IS the stock market:)

    • papadynamite(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 6:57 pm

      Breakout today? Maybe, maybe not. But all signs point higher! Today, tomorrow, next week, it’s time to start this PM rally like Louise Yamada said! I’ll have to send her a cigar if she’s right!

  73. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:10 pm

    Thomas Bulkowski has an interesting chart interpretation of GLD, an invert roof.

    http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html

  74. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:18 pm

    What’s to stop the market from taking another swing at 950+?

  75. David(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:24 pm

    Today’s rise in SLW seems pretty impressive, and so instead of waiting for my $9 limit to be hit, I decided to lower it to $8.80 so as to take some profits today. Who knows what will happen tomorrow…

    Edit: After seeing the bid at $8.79, I lowered the order to $8.79 and sold 500 shares, which I recently acquired at $8. I still have another 500 shares that I acquired at $8.5, which I might sell at $10.

    • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 9:30 pm

      I did the same thing with the exact same share amounts and nearly identical prices. I figure if it drops near term I can use some of the profits to get more at a lower price. In any case I think we’ll see better than $10 by the end of summer. No reason it can’t go a lot higher than $10 but I think $7 would be a definite low. Time will tell.

  76. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:24 pm

    got long papa 9.33

    Out even 3:22

  77. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:33 pm

    these late day “breakouts” are notoriously faulty.

  78. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:42 pm

    “As the market is at a critical point, keep a close eye on financial heavyweight Goldman Sachs (GS +0.80%) and high profile tech stocks, Google (GOOG -0.26%), Apple (AAPL -0.0%), Research in Motion (RIMM -0.01%), and Amazon (AMZN -1.18%). These hot money stocks must participate in any rally back above S&P 920; be wary of any rally led by oil and precious metals.”

    [Bill Cara]
    June 17th

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 7:45 pm

      Thanks Bev. The banks are clearly lagging the market at the moment, while gold is freaking me out because I’m shorting the POG…

      Will need to hedge before closing time.

  79. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:43 pm

    This is a shift in attitude from this important german publication. Right or wrong it suggests that European opinions of Obama and US leadership in this crisis are souring (whether America is concerned by the gripes of Germany is another story :)

    “The occupant of the White House may have changed recently. But the amount of ill-advised ideology coming from Washington has remained constant. Obama’s list of economic errors is long — and continues to grow.

    The president may have changed, but the excesses of American politics have remained. Barack Obama and George W. Bush, it has become clear, are more similar than they might seem at first glance.”

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,6

  80. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:46 pm

    This has been fun but I’m standing aside except for CHSCP, and sold a little of that out of my IRAs. May is just late this year.

  81. papadynamite(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:51 pm

    Not going to happen today. Volume sucks! Summer or preholiday doldrums? Possibly. We need patience!(Not patients!)
    Wow! SLW just went to $8.83. Do I eat my words?

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 7:58 pm

      I remain short on GLD overnight papadynamite because of this lack of volume. If I’m wrong well I can join the longs tomorrow.

  82. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:54 pm

    jpg attached. Link also works
    http://i44.tinypic.com/l8uwy.jpg

    Left side is two day chart, 15 min interval. You can see it breaking out of the ascending triangle today.

    Right side is a 10 day chart, 15 min interval. Several gaps there but you can see the inverse head and shoulder with the 8.80 neckline.

    Not sure if this move will stick or prove false.

  83. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:57 pm

    Demand has been spectacular at this week’s Treasury auctions, capped by a super strong 2.82 bid-to-cover ratio at today’s $27 billion 7-year auction. Once again the high yield came in well below expectations, 2 basis points below at today’s auction. The intensity of demand at this week’s auctions is raising talk that official buying may be involved. Treasuries moved to session highs following the results.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 8:47 pm

      A majority of the Treasury purchases appear to be originating from Europe lately, perhaps a result of their financial system recapitalization?

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 9:11 pm

      Econoday – The intensity of demand at this week’s auctions is raising talk that official buying may be involved

      I’m wondering what the term “official buying” means. Officials meaning other governments, the US government, or the Fed?

      Definitely indirect bidders are taking down a big percentage of the offering. This time it was 66%. If I wanted to make sure a scary auction went well, I might have the Fed run off and bid for treasuries at the auction a few times and underbid everyone else. And how would anyone find out, since we only know what they choose to disclose?

      Primary Dealer Bids: $46b
      Primary Dealer bids accepted: $8b

      Indirect Bids: $25b
      Indirect Bids accepted: $18b

      http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/p

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 11:23 pm

      There may have been a fair amount of shorts unwinding their positions today as well, assisting Treasury demand.

  84. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 7:59 pm

    Lakeshore Gold Tables A Strong Intercept

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN2417530020090624

    Article appeared in the Financial Post as well.

    Others in the news:

    Ventana VEN.TO

    Appleton AEX.V (ouchies)

  85. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:02 pm

    I think they wanted the close over 920.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 8:04 pm

      To bust our chops in which direction tomorrow?

      I am short. Let’s see if I’m punished for my wickedness tomorrow.

      Night all.

      Le.s

  86. Grasshopper(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:02 pm

    Can Bill or anyone else explain why IMO is performing much better than SU and less volatile? The balance sheet of IMO is much stronger, but I’m wondering if there is more to it than that. I want to have exposure to the Canadian Oil Sands and wondering if I should cut my losses on SU and let my winner run on IMO. Both are in the Cara 100. TIA

    Long SU and IMO

  87. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:05 pm

    That magical SP 920 mark! If we get near 927 tomorrow I am thinking of backing up the truck with shorts. Will have to look at my charts and 8 Ball tonight.

    Until tomorrow fellows.

    • Bev(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 8:07 pm

      LOL…. all these 920 posts… Mmmmmm… think I’ll play the daily number tonight.
      920 – .5 straight & .5 box.

      😉

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 11:04 pm

      ” If we get near 927 tomorrow I am thinking of backing up the truck with shorts.”

      Bev- It bothers me they were able to take it up so easily today. With only 3 days to EOQ and within range of taking out the June highs, would it not make sense for them to use all means at their disposal (for instance, a better than expected employment report)?

      Is it possible the bears were either:

      (a) standing aside waiting for better entries, or
      (b) aiding and abetting the move via short-covering?

      I was willing to place a few short bets on the weakness around 11 am. I’m not willing to place any now.

      Just suggesting a little caution.

      (No positions.)

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        June 26, 2009 at 1:12 am

        2nd – It bothers me they were able to take it up so easily today.

        They’re coming off a 30 RSI on the S&P and they picked the sectors that had been beaten like a drum these past few weeks, like homebuilders. As an example, they moved LEN from RSI 30 to RSI 70 in two days. I think the earnings report was just a pretext, since LEN has gone downhill pretty steadily for the past month, the short covering must have been really amazing. +17.5% and triple normal volume! I probably jumped in short too soon. I need more patience.

        I think the key here is rotation. Ignore the S&P, in some sense, and pick your sectors if you want to short something. That’s what I try to do.

        Maybe we can predict what sectors will get the benefit next. Find a beaten down sector, and assume HB&B will pump the heck out of it when it suits their purpose. As Bill says they’ll just rotate from one to the next to churn the market so they can make money – and they pick a company’s earnings day and then pretend the earnings were surprisingly good and they trigger a massive short covering rally and say “oh it was a green shoot” as a cover story.

        • Shiva(118083 comments)-
          June 26, 2009 at 1:57 am

          Dave, this is exactly what i hv been noticing of late. Honestly if you are long and short the same crap, you could make money if you would only wait out & close the positions that are profitable(take commodities or goldminers for example). $indu drops 25 points but fertilizer stocks lose like 15%, next week they make up that 15%. Las Vegas sounds better. Honestly of late i hv come to the realization that its too risky to be anything other than a day trader and i dont have the skills or time to day trade

          • vinod(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 2:20 am

            likelihood of us closing 5 months positive is very very slim, if in fact June is another up month on spx.

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        June 26, 2009 at 12:08 pm

        2nd

        I agree. That is why I used the word “thinking”. the line in the sand for the bears is 927. If the bulls take it past that and close above it we could be starting a new wave up to test and break 960. I plan to proceed with caution especially the way this market has been acting.

  88. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:10 pm

    Terrane Metals In Supreme Court Dispute With Native Band

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/bc-na

    Note that this is not the usual course of action for first nations, since the historical record shows that participation in mining projects offers jobs and a way of life for local communities. This is an enormous project with huge implications for the local ecological impact.

  89. Craig(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:10 pm

    VIX 26.33 1 day rsi 5.23, weekly rsi 18.75, monthly rsi 28.84

    • joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 9:17 pm

      Is the weekly number correct? It seems to be abnormally low …

  90. G(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:18 pm

    CP – been looking at MTW since you mentioned a while back. It closed today at $5.46, up just over 3%. RSI7d is 29 and climbing. MaxPain for July is $7.50 p/CBOE, but Aug MP is $5.00. It is below the 50 and 200 on the daily, with the 200 still downward sloping. Have you pulled the trigger on this one? No position here right now. G

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 8:38 pm

      G – I entered MTW a bit early a couple days ago so slightly under water. Planning to add if support gains momentum, will be waiting at least a couple more days before adding though…

      I’m counting on AUG MP to rise as time progresses, it will be interesting to watch this metric. The presidential stimulus may assist the bottom line, we should know more in a week or two?

      • G(118083 comments)-
        June 25, 2009 at 9:39 pm

        CP – I’m not sure about the next week or two. Long term this area is a good play though.

        Homebuilders today were interesting. Lennar’s action was curious and a few others traded in line, but HOV didn’t move that much and they are buying back debt, got cash flow, not much upcoming debt payment (per Marketwatch). I lost on that one before and would like to take another swing at it. There’s potential legislation that would help them. Have to be careful, still got a sore spot from that one.

        G

  91. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:25 pm

    Raising my bid to $36.28, will pull if premarket looks ugly.

  92. bankchamp(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:41 pm

    Lots of commentary about being short gold.

    I looked at the chart of GLD and it appears to have broken out of a downtrend and crossed the moving average resistance lines. It also appears to be under some short-term accumulation.

    Anything can happen, naturally, but being short might be dangerous right now if we’ve started a new trend.

    http://tinyurl.com/npctdx

    Mark

    • tbar(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 10:30 pm

      agree, the march and late may highs could be an ihs neckline which would make it nested within the larger ihs for 9 months or so’s right shoulder. bears watching….

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 6:53 am

      Thanks for the commentary Mark. Its the 20 day MA that is the thin blue line between GLD and the sky, ditto 940 on the POG. At 8am my time upward pressure in HK, unless checked by London, will have me going long again at the opening.

  93. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 8:56 pm

    I know little about the tech myself but in Minyanville, Udall said that “thin film is losing its cost advantage to silicon” and that SPWRA, WFR and STP are the names to own in the solar space.

  94. Grym(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 10:15 pm
  95. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 10:20 pm

    ave today
    AAPL 17.79 21.01
    RIMM 16.79 18.27
    AMZN 7.36 7.36
    GOOG 3.01 3.04
    GS 17.2 10.13
    XLF 179.3 126.97
    GLD 13.29 11.44
    JPM 79.02 57.15
    WFC 141.15 64.40
    BKX 249.72 132.57
    BAC 487.34 329.58

    *RIMM was down…BAC was even.

    Good night all.

  96. Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 10:42 pm

    Cardiac arrest. Attempting comeback with massive debts. Stress kills. He was really something to behold. God speed.

  97. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 11:07 pm

    They have to make a movie about this guy. This guy was the biggest of the big. He breathed the thin air of great heights that few others have breathed. This is like the day Elvis died, when John Lennon died, when Sinatra died. He’s that big. Nobody was bigger, nobody made more and spent more and ultimately, nobody fell to earth more brutally and, we now know, irrevocably. He was like the Citizen Kane of pop music.

    Farrah had the bad luck of dying the same day as M.J., but when I was a kid she was THE hot blonde.

    A really sad day over all. Plus I took a commission loss.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 25, 2009 at 11:14 pm

      shark- Just goes to show how diverse a community we have. I have never (intentionally or knowingly) listened to a Michael Jackson recording. Nor have I ever watched a Farrah Fawcett film. I may have watched a few minutes of Charlie’s Angels while babysitting my little sister. Different strokes for different folks- that’s what makes life so unpredictable.

  98. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 11:26 pm
  99. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 25, 2009 at 11:34 pm

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 12:01 am

      2nd,
      hmmmmm…. does it give them leverage with policy decisions?, NO. If China was holding just gold & real estate instead of treasuries/USD, do you think US would dovetail our policy to their needs, i think not. Its all you scratch my back, i scratch your back.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        June 26, 2009 at 12:12 am

        Shiva- If they owned our natural resources and our real estate, they could buy most of our policy makers. (Maybe they already have, and we just don’t know it. Or maybe they have, but the policy makers don’t know it.)

        • Shiva(118083 comments)-
          June 26, 2009 at 12:18 am

          2nd, natural resources – yes, real estate – no (china has lots of land anyway). Remember the dubai port authority incident, how our senators voted them out for national security.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 12:46 am

            Senators will always vote for ‘national security.’ But what leads to true national security? A well-educated, well-paid (fully employed, of course), financially/physically secure and (emotionally and physically) healthy population.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 12:54 am

            Uh oh…then we’re screwed.

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 1:39 am

            ” TBT looks like a buy”. Hope so. Got back in AH for 52.11/52.12.

            My trio of SLW/KGC/AUY have turned up nicely. +1.1%/ +9.3%/ +2.9% respectively. I had planed to exit at 4% returns, but I agree 2nd. Not much resistance to the move today.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 2:03 am

            Mark, back in AUY/KGC. For some reasons KGC is a monster, it goes down very slowly but bounces up very fast

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 2:21 am

            Nice Shiva, looks like you got both sides of the move. Mostly cash and just buying on the oversold sectors and out again. I’m not smart enough to play both ends.

            Edit: Keeping a close eye on ECA, CHK, BA.

          • Shiva(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 2:48 am

            Mark, ECA looks good technically. Not sure if the goldminer trade will be good this time but will give it a few days

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 3:55 am

            Shiva- ECA got a pretty strong LT recommendation from my oil guy. Watching how it trades right now.

            Edit: I share Bill’s concern that some people might be under the impression that some of us (ME) might take what we post for more than face value. So for now on I will sign of with…PDFM, please don’t follow me.

            PDFM

  100. Illini(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 1:53 am

    The Dreamliner is the first composite humongous airliner. Meaning it has a high % of structural components using lighter graphite/epoxy as skin and major load bearing structures. The usual problem is the interface where composite meets metal. In this case, it is at the top of the wing/cabin juncture. Very critical. Good that it was caught early and acknowledged, IMO.

    Another composite structure aircraft of Boeing (Vertol) and United Aircraft (Sikorsky) was the Comanche Helicopter. It was cancelled by Rumsfeld after many years of development but I do not suspect it was because of structure/strength problems. Composite structures are superior in a helicopter environment where metal fatigue has been the foremost structural component failure mode. Might I add “catastrophic” structural failure mode.

  101. rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 2:23 am

    I show SLW on google after hours at $7.96. Is this just a stink bid or has it really sold off? In any case I’ll know in the morning.

    At the same time SLV is up a couple of pennies???

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 2:29 am

      RB- Don’t sweat it. Last trade shows 6,000 shares @ 7.9633. This happens at market close sometimes.

      • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
        June 26, 2009 at 2:50 am

        Thanks. Schwab shows a much higher ask price (approx $8.72) yet yahoo shows the same drop to $7.95 after hours. Live and learn.

        • MarkW(118083 comments)-
          June 26, 2009 at 3:10 am

          RB- Do you have Streetsmart Pro? If you use level2 quotes you can see the trades. BTW, silver futures are up 1.78%

          • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
            June 26, 2009 at 6:58 am

            Don’t have Streetsmart Pro. I’ve been using Freestock Charts, Google, MSN, Yahoo, Bill’s RSI tool and what Schwab gives out for free. And then I have several sites I follow such as Ritholz, Jesse’s Cafe, Zero Hedge and a couple others. The only one I participate in is Bill’s. After I return from a trip to the Big Sky Country (Montana, Glacier Park) I will look into it. I’m small potatoes and not much of chart person. But I do intend to learn much more about them. I find Bev’s postings here with the charts are helping me understand items such as support levels. I’ve done the online stuff from Schwab such as candlesticks and about 6 other courses. I read Bill’s book and go back over sections every week. I’m amazed at the amount of additional information I get by going back and reading small sections at a time vs. having read the book from cover to cover.
            I only have SLW and SLV in the portfolio at the time. I sold everything off on May 20th. I’m watching PE ratios info per Barry Ritholz. He talks about the PE needs to come back to around 6 or 7 before we can move up again. That along with the low volume is keeping me on the sidelines for now. Even Bill mentioned in his book about the Oct 87 crash when GE had a PE of 40 or so. He was warning people before the drop then too.

            Thanks Mark,

  102. Illini(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 2:24 am
  103. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 3:08 am

    Perhaps the individual traders will eventually be run out of the market…

  104. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 3:12 am

    Nothing, certainly not a successful trade, gives me as much joy as music. My most enduring memories will, forever, be singing harmony with my Mother, in the kitchen, while she prepared meals. As she battles valiantly, but futilely, against AD, I can’t help but think how trivial our market-angst is.

    Anyway, Tangos are on my mind tonight: :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdZW7Hd8J8A

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 3:16 am

      Mac- Good luck. You’ll have those memories for ever. Cherish them.

  105. Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 3:41 am
  106. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 4:04 am
  107. knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 4:34 am
  108. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 4:41 am

    2nd- Had a very late day today and just had time to scan the comments. Did you hold your position? I’m guessing not, but didn’t see it.

    Nothing for me today except a opening buy of TBT. Also seeing the $ drop AH.

    VB- Checked out your virtual web site. My questions is…I can’t manage my real life let alone participate in a fantasy one?? How do you do it?

    PDFM

    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 5:15 am

      Mark,

      I don’t get this new vitual world either. I didn’t even tell all the crazy stuff that will be included like “things” you can attach to your body to make yourself more like your “virtual self”. It is wierd to me too but in order to trade, we have to understand where this thing is going. Our kids, are online and they are used to these 2nd lives where they play the xbox and they have add ons they attach to their real body.

      Yes, we have to understand it and jump in to be competitve in this crazy world!

      sorry, I would go on but, I had a little vino

      Michael Jackson Died.

      vb

  109. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 6:55 am

    Exxon Mobil’s Weapons of Gas Destruction (cut n paste into browser search bar)

    So why would anyone ship LNG to the U.S.? In part, it’s simple economics. Many projects were sanctioned and financed when lower natural-gas prices prevailed.

    In Exxon’s case, valuable liquids also produced in its Qatari projects take the market break-even price of the natural gas itself “towards zero,” says Deutsche Bank analyst Paul Sankey. Factoring in processing and shipping costs, that gas can be landed in the U.S. for less than $2 per million British thermal units, reckons Noel Tomnay, head of global gas at Wood Mackenzie. The current Nymex price is about $4. Futures prices for this winter are closer to $6 per million BTUs.

    Competing markets also look oversupplied. Wood Mackenzie estimates annual demand in Asia east of India will rise by 1.3 trillion cubic feet by 2015. New projects targeting the region and close to final investment decisions amount to more than two trillion cubic feet of capacity.

    In Europe, the prevalence of long-term pipeline contracts limits the size of the market up for grabs. Wood Mackenzie estimates about 4.9 trillion cubic feet of discretionary piped and liquefied natural gas a year will compete for a market half that size over the next three years.

    The U.S., with its large, liquid natural-gas market will be a natural destination for this surplus LNG. As a cap on prices, this effect of globalization in the natural-gas market is great news for customers.

    In a buyer’s market, though, higher-cost sellers suffer. A big increase in low-cost LNG supply would displace some U.S. natural-gas production. The average U.S. field requires a Nymex natural-gas price of $7.79 per million BTUs to earn a 10% return on capital, according to Jonathan Wolff at Credit Suisse.

    Yet, as Mr. Wolff points out, natural-gas drillers’ capital expenditures are still outpacing cash flow, as they have since 2006. The number of operating natural-gas rigs actually rose last week after many months of declining.

    Increasing globalization means a bigger range of factors affect U.S. natural gas and the fortunes of its producers. An extended spat between Russia and Ukraine this past winter, for example, would help draw more LNG cargoes toward Europe.

    Barring this, prices and drillers will likely remain under pressure. A question haunting the sector is why majors like Exxon haven’t rushed in to scoop up distressed companies sitting on large U.S. natural-gas reserves. The answer may be that, with more LNG pointed at already weak markets, they can afford to take time, and take aim.

    • barry(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 11:35 am

      On Big oil, this Blooberg article suggests that Big Oil will soon cutting back operations in the US – should the Climate Tax pass. The oil business may evolve to where we will be a country of service stations only with gas with oil products imported from a lower tax some-where-else. Unfortunately the climate tax will lead to even more exported jobs. While the windmill and solar panel business may grow some here (but lots in China and India) Tax collector will be the biggest booming job category.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/?b=0&Intro=intro3

  110. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 7:00 am
  111. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 7:25 am
    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 10:58 am
      • Les(118083 comments)-
        June 26, 2009 at 11:06 am

        Agreed also. Unfortunately this situation, one that we must follow as traders of price, is permitted by the lack of volume dictating what might be rational psychological behaviour in response to the shriveling up of green shoots.

        But we knew this already.

        I held TYP on the possibility of an opening reversal to shake out the longs and the possibility of rotation out of tech. We shall see.

  112. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 9:18 am

    Signed up for LSE market data with IB to watch gold bidding in real time as the Kitco chart is a bit crude in such knife edge moments of the market as this morning.

    Ready to jump in long on the LSE to hedge my GLD short before the US opening if necessary, although I do have small cap miners which act as a hedge against the short in case of a bull run to 1000.

    Pressure’s easing off a tad…

    • johnuk(118083 comments)-
      June 26, 2009 at 10:23 am

      Les I use this site for tracking Gold Price(it has Technical Indicators and other commodities as well as currencies),I find it much better for me than Kitco site, in fact I dont use Kitco at all now.

      http://tinyurl.com/4pg3ma

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        June 26, 2009 at 10:26 am

        Thanks. It just took Kitco’s place on my bookmarks bar.

  113. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 9:48 am

    The first thing I did yesterday was close out all of my shorts at the open. By 9:40AM, I was in 100% cash. How’s that for perfect timing? If you missed it, you can go through my tweets. I was up +3.8 entirely from day trading select names, such as CAR, AGM, VVTV, and DTG. Heck, even Jake followed my trades. If you joined me, you came out with free money in your pockets.

    The market is in a precarious position right now. I suspect that a wide-ranged consolidation will continue, therefore, I will refrain from swing trading and go exclusively with day trading. Neutral consolidations are hazardous to swing trades and benefits day traders the most. Conversely, trending markets favor the swing traders, leaving the day traders in the dust.

    http://weeklyta.blogspot.com/

  114. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 26, 2009 at 11:09 am

    The futures are down, we may also open down. (Unexpected) spikes up often start this way, no? You need to walk back a few steps to get a running start. You then have the momentum boosters of complacency and surprise on your side.

    No positions right now, other than the SLV position opened Wednesday.

  115. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 29, 2009 at 3:21 am

    believe Banro has access to at least 12 million oz. of gold, and probably much more. BAA has 100% ownership in 4 mines in the heart of the Congo’s 130 mile long gold belt. They believe Banro’s market cap could approach $ 1 B. in comming years……….( from May, 06′ )

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