Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Thurs., Feb. 26, 2009

[8:39am ET] I am now in Toronto, listening to the Canadian financial channel BNN TV, which I don

Categorised in: Uncategorized

Add Comment →

184 Comments

  1. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    Good morning.

    JNJ – RBC Initiates Coverage with a Sector Perform

    TGT – Price Target Lowered from $31 to $29 @ Jefferies & Co.

  2. swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 1:44 pm

    seems the bottoming out of oil prices late ’08, which is reflected in royalty payments made by various trusts late January has amounted to numerous capitulation trades – (well, they join the long queue of capitulations I guess).

    SJT, HGT, PBT…

    A bit of income and relatively safe, if comparatively stale, appreciation anyone?

    Beats buying treasuries 🙂

    • davelee(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 2:09 pm

      I took a position in energy trusts but way too early. I have positions in COS.UN, DAY.UN. (However, with the distribution cut on COS, why not just hold ECA with a higher dividend?) Some often recommended are CPG.UN, AET.UN, NAE.UN.

      Joanne Hruska on BNN videos has some good comments on energy trusts. That said, I’ve become really wary of BNN “talking heads” since so many recommended OILEXCO and I got really burned on that pick. If too many people are talking about it, then it may be kind of iffy…

    • Pierre Brodeur(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 3:06 pm

      I actually own some of these for income as well. However, Alberta is now in deep recession and the oil business is in deep trouble.

      Many of these stocks are trading as if they were going bankrupt. Their product mix is skewed towards natural gas and given $NATGAZ price right now they will hurt badly and will report much lower cash flows in the next few quarters.

      Beware of those trusts yielding 10% +. Embedded in the price is the expectation of a distribution cut.

      Good luck out there…!

    • ChrisM(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 12:07 am

      Swissie – you looking for a TV job? PBT touted by Cramer today! He was talking as if it was an MLP, but it doesn’t seem that way to me. Do you know? Reason is that it affects the treatment of distribution – don’t want it in a tax sheltered account like an IRA if its an MLP, as there’s a risk of the distribution being what the IRS calls “Unrelated business income” or somesuch.
      [EDIT} Just looked on their website. Not an MLP per se, but messy for the tax return, though easy enough I expect if you have good software and aren’t employed as treasury secretary.

  3. QT(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 1:52 pm

    I remember seeing Jimmy Rogers [well known commodities trader] on Bloomberg and CNBC in late 2008 tell how he moved his family to Singapore and will be totally out of USD by early 2009. I figured he was on to something then. But after reading this last night I am convinced he knew what he was doing.

    “Beginning of Phase 5 of the global systemic crisis: phase of global geopolitical dislocation”

    http://tinyurl.com/c7lgco

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 2:45 pm

      Re Jimmy Rogers, there are times when you ought to be riding his one-trick pony. I find him giving out very good information recently. As long as you understand his bias, I think he’s very much worth listening to. Unlike some others who get called to Circus TV, Jimmy has made a fortune in the market and did co-found and manage one of the most successful hedge funds in history.

      • Ad(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 2:01 am

        Bill,

        Just wanted to confirm what you mean when you speak of understanding Jim Rogers’ bias. I assume you are refering to his general bullishness on the commodity super cycle?

  4. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 1:54 pm
    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 2:54 pm

      Re: “censured expletives”: I will be getting an editor next week because I no longer have much time to read all the posts or answer the mail I get from those who point me to language that is, in my eyes, unbecoming what I want to be associated with. To many of you, that kind of language is normal, and you could rightly argue that you hear it from others all day long. I’m just telling you that I find it offensive and so do many parents and teachers who use this community blog to educate the young. So, please, let’s cut the gratuitous language that serves nothing to the well articulated discussion than most of us want to be associated with. Thank you.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 3:09 pm

        Not a problem.

    • number2son(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 4:05 pm

      I’d like to see Geithner stop the “stress test” bull—- in favor of more appropriate analogies.

      Geithner was interviewed on ‘The News Hour’ last night. And he was no more convincing that he had a good solution to solving the financial crisis than he was two weeks ago. But basically, he promises to act “boldly” to get banks lending again.

      Why hasn’t anyone confronted him with what Joseph Stiglitz had to say about TARP – “Given our system of fractional reserve lending, the U.S. could have funded a brand new bank with that $700B and generated over $7T of new lending.”

      Why?

      Geithner is poised to throw more good money after bad, and a lot of it. He claims he is not doing this for the banks, but rather to help the “small businesses and families get the loans they need to grow their business or buy a new car or finance a college education.”

      I don’t buy his motivation. If he were truly interested in helping people rather than banks, he’d have listened to Stiglitz.

      This is why the markets remain in a funk. At what point will people like Geithner and Bernake admit their failure? Will it be, as Ron Paul asked Bernake yesterday, when inflation is soaring and people are still losing their jobs? Frankly, I hope they never have to and that they are right and Ron Paul and Joseph Stiglitz are wrong. But my lack of confidence in our government to solve this mess is only surpassed by my lack of faith that the banks that brought us this crisis will ever do the right thing.

  5. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 1:55 pm

    at least, that’s the kind of sentiment i’m sensing this morning…

  6. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    the market is ignoring bad news this morning…usually a good sign…

  7. QT(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    2nd

    Does it mean

    S – Ship
    H – High
    I – In
    T – Transit

    That is what they would stamp on the fertilizer sacks when transporting on ships hundreds a years ago. They used to store it below deck I heard, but the methane gas would build up and when someone went below with a lantern the ship would explode.

    Or is this just legend?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 2:14 pm

      QT- LOL…Well, I don’t know the answer to that one, but as I recall the origins of the word are rooted in a foreign language, and had noble connotations prior to its current connotation of “something to be gotten rid of as quickly as possible.”

    • FireFly(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 3:50 pm

      Found this and could not resist this thread to reply…
      http://theplasticspoon.blogs.com/the_plastic_spoon

  8. tgifbipo(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:08 pm

    http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2009-

    A little lower for gold and bullish on oil, interesting.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 3:03 pm

      “A little lower for gold and bullish on oil, interesting.”

      Agreed, however, we are watching closely for opportunities to write puts on the goldminers — for the reasons I stated today in the DR, ie, I am cautiously bullish.

  9. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:21 pm

    trailing .39 buy stop. (1/3 10 day ATR).

    April max pain 20. offset DZZ position.

    Do ur own homework.

    • bsi87(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 2:50 pm

      long at 16.25

  10. Craig(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:23 pm
  11. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    buy limit 3.81. 3PM price plus 5% of 10 day ATR. Max pain 7.50 for Mar, 5 for April.

    do ur own homework.

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 2:29 pm

      Homework? What the heck do I need to know? You made an awesome buy. Now I hope you sold it pre-market at 4.50 and are planning to re-load in the pivot range (3.9-4.11)

      • bsi87(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 2:38 pm

        nope,Sharkie.

        I’m not a daytrader. Volatility is about 24% of current price, hence much more risk.

        I always post a disclaimer as everyone’s time frame/risk tolerance/indicators may/do vary.

        GL

  12. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:27 pm

    capitulation play. RSI 7 day 4.36. Kangaroo tail reversal per Elder. Buy limit 7.94. Max pain 12.50 for April/May.

    If executed, sell stop under yesterday’s low.

  13. Craig(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:27 pm

    These pullbacks will be rarer….

    Added SLW @ $6.46 premkt
    Still small position.

  14. EDC(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:28 pm

    Grym,

    Roughly 900 billion in corporate debt must be rolled over in 2009 (per Moodys).

    Securitizations accounted for over 40% of our debt markets in the past two years, I have also hear that number is as high as 66% (40% seems more realistic).

    Every advising wholesaler is plugging high yield funds, recovery fund,s corporate bond funds and gnma funds.
    (contrarian indictor, don’t follow the flock)

    Also, market recent action, lack of put protection and the chart has got me spooky. The trend is lookin down, as it did in september. Gut says trouble ahead and this maybe painful for a time being.

    use caution.

  15. QT(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:32 pm

    This is the game plan of a trader [seems to be highly regarded]for the next 2 days. He uses XLF as one of his indicators as to which way the market is heading.

    http://tinyurl.com/bhbnhd

    BTW: he has been long term bearish

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 3:09 pm

      Re “He uses XLF as one of his indicators as to which way the market is heading.”

      It makes more sense to watch the major bank stocks or the banking index ($BKX), and these are basically moving up and down with the credit default swap market. The issue is still one of counter-party risk among the big banks. The efforts by the central bankers and treasury depts in England and the US to shore up this critical issue so that credit can once again flow where needed is the one thing that is helping stabilize the equity market, allowing it to base here. Gold, of course, is the hedge play re that issue.

  16. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:33 pm

    long 18.53. max pain 30

  17. guygrand(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:37 pm

    One man’s view, but I find him far more interesting than the majority of Toronto fools on BNN talking their book, and proud that they have only lost 40% of their clients’ money.

  18. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    Other Stocks of Possible Interest:

    ESLR – Downgraded to Sell @ UBS

    • number2son(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 2:45 pm

      Kicking ’em when they’re down. Nice.

  19. michael3442(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:40 pm

    Here’s a link to three charts showing that the first of seven gaps in GLD was filled on Wednesday. How many will eventually be filled? Wish I knew the answer to that question; we can only watch the charts and pay attention to the markets for whatever clues might appear. From history, however, we know that nearly (the key word) all, but a handful, of the gaps have been filled since 2000.

    http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopi

    (Does anyone know if it’s possible to post charts here, instead of links?)

    -MK

    • dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 2:47 pm

      i find gartman interesting from a spectator perspective. and i agree he is no better than most of the guys on BNN, accept for

      Larry Berman: solid TA
      John Zechner for a more philosopical approach to markets
      Henry Groppe for oil macro-economics.

      • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 3:01 pm

        Sorry dr.cosa, I could easily name a couple dozen regular guests on BNN who are intelligent, well-spoken and doing a great job to explain capital markets. Seldom do I hear a Canadian commentator use the BNN stage to say “I do this; and I do that. Look at me.” You are right about the names you mentioned. Larry Berman is very good at explaining the markets, and you know I have never once heard him say, “Look at me”. Larry btw is a personal friend, so I may be biased there, but I recommend his service.

  20. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 2:59 pm

    When those fund algorithms adjust to this recent plunge in corporate earnings, look out below…

    Since January 1, reported earnings per share have gone from $48 per share to $27 per share. The bulk of that collapse occurred within the last two weeks.

    This is an enormous collapse, and it’s having a dramatic effect on price/earnings ratios (also called “valuations”).

    For simplicity, let’s assume that the S&P 500 stock index has been at 760 since January 1.

    Then, on January 1, the P/E ratio was 760/48 = 15.8.

    On February 13, the P/E ratio was 760/27 = 28.1.

    The only way that this could have happened is if investors purposely held stock prices at the right levels, and that means that the buy/sell algorithms in their computers made decisions based on whether a stock’s price was above or below 18 times earnings. There’s no other reasonable explanation for how P/E could have held steady at 18 for over 2 years.

    Now those same buy/sell algorithms have to deal with a collapse in reported corporate earnings, and the only way to do that is for the S&P index to fall to below 500 (and the Dow to fall below 5000).

    http://tinyurl.com/cmg4fn

  21. SiO2(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:01 pm

    The UCO 6-6 and 5-7.50 straddles I had been boring you to death here are now up between +20% and +50% today (that’s ROI) http://straddles.nexalogic.com

    The 6 calls are worth $2+ (bought for $0.90), the 7.50 calls (bought for $0.40-$0.50) are trading for $1. 6 puts still worth $0.20, as mentioned, because there are over 3 weeks to expiry they will have residual value left.

    And UCO is still rising. More straddles will be uploaded later.

  22. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    overdue, if we do…overdone (selling, that is), if we don’t. JMO.

  23. Milesquare(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:15 pm
  24. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:20 pm

    See what happened when DRYS literally sliced through the bottom of the opening range, decisively?

    Wasn’t the Greek guy whose pop owns this sucker dating Paris Hilton for awhile? I hope he got shots afterward, and I don’t mean Wild Turkey.

  25. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:22 pm

    I think they’ve exhausted all reasons for taking it down…it would take something REALLY bad, or COMPLETELY unexpected, to take it down at this point. No passengers left on the train to shake down.

  26. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:24 pm

    that I bought on Tuesday for 21.5% gain. I think that’s damn near the luckiest I’ve ever been…

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 3:28 pm

      Make that “that’s ABOUT the luckiest I’ve ever been.” Just kidding, man 😉 And congratulations!

  27. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:27 pm

    Up 0.46 after being up yesterday as well? Back in the land of the living, maybe I’ll make some money after all. As they say, I became an “investor” last week after it dropped below its support and I didn’t sell.

    • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 3:32 am

      “As they say, I became an “investor” last week after it dropped below its support and I didn’t sell.”

      Right there with you, davefairtex. I became an investor too when my $5 strike puts that I wrote were exercised. Bought more around 3.50 and more under 3. Plan to write calls on 3/4 of TCK holding ($5 strike) if this rally continues. Will follow the remaining 1/4 with a trailing stop and let it ride hoping for a return to the glory days of a $40+ share price. Might take 5 years or more, or it might just go belly up. Hopefully will turn into a nice trade. Good luck.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 3:42 am

        I too have a chunk of Teck, was riding it up when it turned, sold, bot more, fell more…. Long story. Just didn’t have guts to buy under $3 a few days ago but probably will next time…

  28. baz22(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:35 pm

    Folks, they just ain’t making any more of these ( coal, gold, silver, platinum, iron ore, etc… )… Upkeep ?? Let mother nature handle that… When the worm turns, and it will, be prepared…..

  29. London(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:39 pm

    EQIX doing a u turn possibly, near week high now.

  30. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:40 pm

    Rumors are starting to surface again about the marriage between Microsoft and Yahoo.
    Could be some short term trades here both short and long…..

  31. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:45 pm

    apart from individual names and sectors, it’s been awhile, no?

  32. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:49 pm

    It’s been so long since it’s spiked up, they have the DJIA up only 1.78 points at the moment (for some reason, yesterday’s close has been adjusted to 7400.42)…It must be the new hires they had to bring on board, or maybe too much time at the water cooler comparing Bartz and Ballmer 😉

  33. number2son(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 3:59 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 4:46 pm

      “California now has the dubious distinction of ranking last in the nation in per-pupil spending.”

      This is what happens when governments spend at a rate disproportionate to the growth of the tax base. I’ll bet the Cali. spending has far outpaced revenue growth as wage averages have fallen.

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 4:55 pm

        What’s up my Chicken!

        California is screwed into perpetuity budget-wise. Also, California, Nevada Arizona and New Mexico are totally running out of water as the Colorado River is running dry. Texas has Bush back. My advice to those living on the barren frontier: Move.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          February 26, 2009 at 5:57 pm

          Hey sharkie, I think these states can all compensate by increasing volume of spending. Aside from Bush, texas ain’t a bad place to live if you select a dryer area. The problem there is wind. Summer is hot and dry(perfect for swamp cooler) but winter is mild and I like that. I’d move to Santa Barbara, but Calif. is a very poor state and under attack on many fronts, the Terminator has met his match!

          The water park in Grym’s town sounds appealing, but they should consider installing an Alien craft landing pad and stonehenge replica park (I sketched out a conceptual image, see attached:).

    • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 4:50 pm

      It sounds pretty grim No. 2.

      I hate to be the vulture, but from the limited understanding I have of the bond market it sounds like municipals are going to collapse before Uncle Sam.

      Is there an inverted ETF to bet against municipals, something like TBT? I assume that any collapse of the municipal bond market would quickly spread contagion to other government bond markets.

  34. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:01 pm

    Was updating my lists and made these notes on some companies that have recently begun production or are planned to reach production soon.

    LSG.TO – production 30k oz/’09;ramping to 200k by 2011; appx 75m cash; Ontario
    ATW.V – production 35k oz/yr Western Australia
    AVR.V – production 66k oz/yr ’09;79k ’10;87k ’11; 101k ’12; Mali
    CGA.TO – und const; production March 09; 200k oz/yr; Philippines
    DMM.TO – und cpnst; production March 09; 100k oz/yr; Ecuador
    CEE.TO – und const; production Q209; 200koz/yr; 15yr life; Egypt

  35. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:02 pm

    Wow, the daily hammering is astounding. I guess the world economy must have recovered…

  36. guygrand(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:16 pm

    Copper seems to be having a little run here with FCX in particular doing nicely. Blackmont’s analyst attributes the ostensible increase in Chinese demand to their domestic production problems rather than economic factors.
    Does anyone have any information on this?

    • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 4:32 pm

      Kitco graphs show a leveling of global inventory. Same thing was thought of in February as well, but short lived – inventory continued to increase. Might be the rumour mill at work…

  37. tango6(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:17 pm

    It’s a “takes it higher substance” which, if you know about such things, has to be read backwards.

  38. Fazeli(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:23 pm

    If I’m reading the charts right, SLW broke its upwards trend yesterday?

    I’m not sure which day the trend began (Nov 21 or Nov 25), but either way, it seems like $6.50-$6.70 was the range we had to stay above. There seems to be some support at $6.25 though.

    A chart is attached with my trend lines drawn.

    Any thoughts?

  39. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:26 pm

    cancelling JTX, trailing .16 buy stop on HS. May switch to one cancels other order.

    • bsi87(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 4:28 pm

      long HS at 9.1632

      • bsi87(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 10:12 pm

        out at 8.67. It (and I) capitulated after lunch. Might put a buy stop above 3 PM price for tomorrow.

        Not missing out much by sitting.

  40. photogray(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:26 pm

    From Tradingmarkets.com….
    “Cord Blood America is…… With 277.26 million shares outstanding and 80,100 shares declared short as of October 2008, there is a failure to deliver in shares of CBAI. According to quarterly data provided by the SEC, there were still 4,342,860 shares of CBAI that were failing-to-deliver as of September 18, 2007.”
    does this mean more are trying to short and cannot?
    from Shortintrest.com
    Short Interest (Shares Short) 691,300
    Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 0.0
    Short Percent of Float 0.24 %
    Short Interest – Prior 90,600
    I’m trying to reconcile the two sources of info.

    long CBAI

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 4:50 pm

      Sounds like a short squeeze to me… should cause a rally if a stink bomb doesn’t go off.

  41. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:43 pm

    Good day for me, 31% on this one in a couple of days. But holding on to half…

    • dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 4:56 pm

      huge breakout on very strong volume w/ the RSI jumping above the median point.

      this is a welcome sign if the price action can follow through for a few days. i think such a move would be a significant sign that money is moving back into commodity plays beyond just the gold-safe-haven type action.

      follow through is key imho.

      ————————

      re: gold, using the Kitco chart as my long-time friend note the small break back up towards $940. i would expect to see a jump up towards $950 over night before a move back down if history is any guide. if this downtrend is to be short-lived, i woudl expect a strong bounce back above $950 if only for a while just to prove this broader rally in PM’s has legs. volume EOD on the large caps will be instructive here imho.

      J

  42. SiO2(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:51 pm

    YHOO is at $13.03. 13-13 straddle requires max move of 15.4%, 14-12 requires 16.5% Stock has oscillated 5.1% today.

  43. wabrew(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:53 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 5:31 pm

      “I will report back tomorrow with details on the end of day prices. I think it will be interesting to compare the performance of gold to this portfolio over the next two months.”

      That would be interesting, don’t forget to include dividends!

  44. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 4:58 pm

    Let me throw a question out to the good technician:

    The BAC 5 minute chart today made an “ascending triangle” which failed miserably. Is this a case of bad fundamentals prevailing, or was it just a selling oppty for the smart money already in, but why did the pattern which appeared as though it was a rising consolidation pattern fail? Or is my head up my arsenal and am I misreading the patern? Clue in a moron, it’ll be your good deed for the day:)

    What clues was the tape giving that that pattern was likely to fail?

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 5:32 pm

      That was a valid pattern in an invalid market. I don’t believe it failed for any other reason than the market dropping at the time. 11 – 11:05 EST is the zone to look at for comparison.

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 5:40 pm

        Thanks man.

  45. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 5:08 pm

    Another stock i picked up on Tuesday, and double up on yesterday

    Using Colin Twiggs calculation for how low a stock should go after breakdown:

    Jan high of 46.62
    Dec low of 31.76

    31.76 – (46.62-31.76)/2

    = 24.33

    Yesterdays low = 24.36

    And of course all technicals way oversold… might add even more in another account…

  46. sammas(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 6:03 pm

    thanks to all who posted yesterday on the subject. i suppose the way i would look at it is that what is being described as unimaginable is no more unimaginable than the market itself. all the software, algorithms, etc, etc that are needed to make the present-day market work with its mind-boggling amount of volume and complexity require only a small addition in order to function as i theorized initially. namely, the addition of logic that can determine the profit/loss on a given set of circumstances. none of which is or needs be managed by 1, 2 or any number of people outside of the initial design of the system itself. as for any risk involved in such a scenario, well, when its other peoples’ money and legal, what risk is there in that?

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 6:17 pm

      Let’s keep the line of discussion please. Using logic in determining where the stops are and trying to profit from them is perfectly legal and being done for ages, as I indicated. Initial post though suggested using of actual knowledge of actually submitted stops in order to conspire and profit from them – on that I commented that this would be both illegal and practically impossible without enormous amount of work involving a lot of conspirators.

      • sammas(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 7:09 pm

        i misunderstood the manner in which you applied the legality. as for the opinion of whether or not such a thing actually happens, its really a moot point as i doubt either of us has the ability to prove our respective contentions; we could present speculative evidence to infinity over whether or not it is or is not too complex to exist in reality. very entertaining and informative though and, again, i thank you for your contributions.

  47. kp84(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 6:34 pm

    At 10am., I placed a bid on DGP to buy @ 20.39.

    Rationale:
    After several days of gold price correction, I figured a rebound may occur.
    With a long view of gold prices, I’m interested in buying on the dips. I use GLD as a proxy to chart and trade.

    My exit point equates to a 4-5% gain, with a stop loss order set for a max. 2% loss of value.
    A tight stop would be entered so that I could walk away and go to work, if necessary.

    First, on the 1mo/30min. chart, I drew a line of support from 1/30 high(91.45) through 2/13 low(91.69) to today.
    This morning, RSI7 looked oversold m/w/d; the fast stochs looked oversold. I concluded that GLD was in the AZ, short term. I figured there may be a technical bounce on this support line. This is strictly based on daily observations. Did I wait for a breakout on high volume? No.

    Bid of 20.36 was ‘in the neighborhood’ of a GLD @ 91.69 ( 2/13 low).

    Bottom line: DGP bid not hit, with intraday low hitting 20.36.
    I am not set up trading platform-wise to anything more than watch prices with TDameritrade’s Command Center.

    At 12:20, I’m examining the setup. I Didn’t chase it, but I did scream at the wall for not getting it!

    With GLD in an uptrend since 1050am, I feel like I did my homework, planned the trade, yet failed in trading the plan.
    I’m second guessing the rationale of course. (I think the folks from HB & B call this ‘performance attribution’).

    I’m not confident enough to say that the rationale was complete, yet was comfortable enough to take risk and place the bid.

    All I know is that so far, it’s a profitable trade.
    I ask myself two questions: Is that all that matters? Was this blind luck?
    I keep thinking what Dirty Harry in Magnum Force: ” A man’s got to know his limitations.”
    Safe trading to everyone.

    Off to work.
    Thank you, Bill, for this forum.

    kp84

    FD: majority cash; small positions in: TBT, DGP, various jr. miners; speculative LT postions in OPTT and CPRX.

  48. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 6:43 pm

    What are thoughts on the action today.

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 6:57 pm

      i really couldnt provide any solid advice. other than the company has everything going for it. Dont own any this second.

      bobble head said sell it two days in a row now. so his followers continue to sell. Wish i got in at today’s low. but i dont want in at 6.70 either.

      there is so much news right now i decided to sit it out for today unless a stink bid is hit for me.

      • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 7:10 pm

        No patience. Didnt like action…..took small profit. I have learned its never wrong to sell for a profit if your gut tells you to get out. Anybody wants an easy ride to 7$ jump on now cause I’m gone. : ‘ )

        Sell 1,000 shares SLW 02/26/09 Filled

        02/26/09 14:06 Filled 200 at 6.7602
        02/26/09 14:06 Filled 200 at 6.7601
        02/26/09 14:06 Filled 300 at 6.7601
        02/26/09 14:06 Filled 300 at 6.7601

  49. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 6:43 pm

    The root cause is finally treated…

    Iceland’s central bank chief, David Oddsson, will be driven from office after the country’s parliament passed a bill calling for his ouster, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday on its Web site. Oddsson, who has been blamed by many for the collapse of Iceland’s banking system, has refused to step down and could only be removed from the post by an act of parliament, according to the Journal.

    http://tinyurl.com/c55hyk

  50. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 6:54 pm

    just got back from Jim Sinclair’s free seminar held after his Comapny’s annual shareholder’s meeting.

    alot more people than the last few years and some great questions being asked.

    he was on-point and lucid as usual and i enjoyed it.

    this site and jim sinclair’s blog are my top daily reads, (in addition to a few military history sites but thats another story all together!!)

  51. Grym(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 7:03 pm

    EDC ,

    Thanks for the detail on corp debt. I agree extreme caution is called for. I’m 99% convinced deflation will continue in most areas for quite a while and have been increasing my Treasuries-only mutual fund holdings. I’m tired of the need for constant attention to the markets of the past year.

    I’m tempted to just go all out in Ts, but have been hold at 50+% cash, 35% Ts and the rest in gold of one form or another with some minor ag an energy commodities.

    I’m trying to keep it fairly simple in case my wife is suddenly an investment manager.

  52. Grym(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 7:05 pm

    Bill,

    One of the first times he got my attention was back when he was in CNBC discussion and he said, “Well if you insist on using government data there is no use in our trying to communicate with each other.”

    I think with the amount of wealth he has accumulated and the lack of a real currency anywhere, commodities may be the best way to protect most of it.

    I just can’t afford to do that or I would.

  53. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 7:07 pm

    Vad I’d like to challenge you on the ability to keep it secret, and the amount of work required to execute it.

    So my best guess is, the distribution of stops doesn’t vary much between brokers customers. If you’re a very large broker, say which has 10% of the customers in the world, using the “law of big numbers” you can estimate from your sample of customers what the total set of stops in the market might look like. And the larger sample you have, the more likely you are to get to within a quite accurate estimate of the actual distribution. Probably “good enough” to make such a system work. So the information is there – good enough information, that is. And it’s available real time.

    I’m guessing it would take a small engineering team maybe six months to a year to create a system to collect the stops data, provide a screen showing one trader the current market, give him a “sell” button which would slam the market using a specific number of contracts, and then automatically cover the shorts as the stops got tripped. Figuring out the right time to use such a system, and under what conditions it would prove most effective, and how much money you would lose in figuring this out – that’s another matter. It feels quite doable technically.

    Keeping it secret? I’m guessing that would be tougher. I’d select one architect/engineer to rely on to bring the whole thing together, and two engineering teams that would just construct the pieces and they could be – uh, lied to about the end use of their product. The sticky part would be obtaining the customer order input stream. It could be done under the guise of a “system status” project, with the stops feed being one feature. So figure one trader, one architect, and of course selected management at the company. The trader could even be a former trader, now in management, to reduce the people involved to a minimum.

    I muse about this mainly because of Bill’s comments (yes, I’ll blame him) about HB&B turning the oil markets into a casino. That, and watching gold prices when asia is open, vs. watching gold prices when NY comes online. Plus, some wacky behavior I’ve seen in oil, where I have seen the market run up $2, and then promptly down again 15 minutes later. It all just got me to thinking. Is the job doable? I am pretty sure it is. Kept secret? Probably. Has it already been deployed, and in use today? Now that, I can’t say.

    I have relevant expertise is in developing trading room systems- data feeds, displays, information bus systems, mostly for forex and bonds, long ago for Dow Jones, back when they had a trading room products division. Knew a bunch of people at Morgan Stanley, back when automated trading was a relatively new thing.

    [edit: apologies if this discussion is out of line for this forum, but since i trade gold and oil futures, the matter is of significant interest to me as a trader]

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 7:09 pm

      dave… have you read the initial post and whole discussion?

      What you say is what I said they do. What I described as illegal and non-doable is something very different.

      I am sorry, I’ll remove myself from continuation.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 7:38 pm

        Hmm, I did read the posts – all of them. I may be confused, but I also thought I was the one that started the thread, to which sammas replied, and it took off from there – although I didn’t know the term “stop gunning” prior to yesterday.

        Alas, it seems that its my reading comprehension of your replies that’s not up to speed. 🙂 My apologies.

        Still, thanks for answering my original question: “Is such a system as I described possible?” It sounds like you are saying not only yes, but they have such systems in place today.

        [EDIT: darn. I re-read your response. The system I described above WAS this illegal and quite difficult to implement systems using actual stops submitted from customers. As a former trading room systems software architect, it didn’t appear that difficult to implement to me. Tapping the feed of customer orders, extrapolating the universe of stops from the actual submitted stops using the law of big numbers, engineering teams, operations, that sort of thing, it all seemed doable – with only say 3 conspirators that were fully “in the know”. Maybe unnecessary though, from what you are saying, if the systems that don’t use actual customer stops works well enough. Still, interesting thread.]

  54. Grym(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 7:17 pm
  55. Grym(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 7:19 pm

    “The water park in Grym’s town sounds appealing, but they should consider installing an Alien craft landing pad and stonehenge replica park (I sketched out a conceptual image, see attached:).”

    Your sketch looks lot like our downtown and I’m pretty sure our city council has been taken over by aliens already.

  56. Fox1(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 7:25 pm
    • Pierre Brodeur(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 8:03 pm

      I do read posts on “quiet” days.
      Thanks for the kind words

  57. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 7:49 pm

    huh, 2 down days in the indexes, but the vix is dropping as well… kind of strange, no?

  58. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 7:56 pm

    Back to trading.

    So here’s a day where gold is down, but the gold miner index is up. What the heck is going on? The S&P is flat, and GDX is +0.66, and GG is +1.06, while POG is -22.6. It’s the exact opposite from what was happening before, where gold was up big, and the miners move was very lackluster. And SLW. Silver got crushed today -0.82 (wow!) but SLW is +0.13? I feel like I should sell now, before anyone notices!

    I’m trying to understand the correlations here, but there’s something I’m just not getting. I mean, I’m happy, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t understand WHY I’m so happy. 🙂

    • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 8:00 pm

      “And SLW. Silver got crushed today -0.82 (wow!) but SLW is +0.13? I feel like I should sell now, before anyone notices!”

      Thats what I though and took the updraft as a gift to get out.

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 8:05 pm

        Everything seems too risky today. its like you have keys to a shiny new ferrari but have to drive it blind folded. not knowing how long the enjoyment will last before a wreck at 100mph.

        so much news out there. on taxing the $250k+, 3.6 Trillion budget in 2010, thain vs bac, housing, monetary policy, healthcare, global markets, unemployment, etc. its just a bunch of smash up currents.

    • fireworks(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 8:09 pm

      Some days it makes you wonder if the metal is leading the shares or the shares leading the metal. I would interpret today’s HUI upside to investors being confident that gold’s and silver’s four day downdraft is merely a short-term correction rather than a wholesale plunge. As noted in the DOW’s squeamish activity today, equity risk is still a very big factor for investors. The next time gold moves above $1000, it may not re-visit the triple digit level again.

  59. David(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:02 pm

    As I was glancing periodically at the S&P 500 chart today, I was getting less and less impressed with it, and once I saw that it started going into the red zone, I decided to take some profit on my positions. So I just sold 300 shares of ACI at $14.22, which I purchased on Tuesday at $12.60. I originally placed a sell limit for it at $15, but now I figured that I should not be too greedy and take profit while it is still here.

    Also, the buy stop limit order for 500 shares of SWC was executed today at $3.35. I placed a sell limit order at $3.95 for it.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 8:15 pm

      Also, I just covered 50 shares of my ERY short at $44.35, which I shorted on Monday at $48.38. Just raising some buying power in case the market goes down, so as to be able to re-deploy that buying power at better prices.

  60. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:06 pm

    I can see that maybe the market needs to catch it’s breath after 4% surge tuesday before moving higher. But if it breathes all the way down to 740 again, does that portend anything? Are short-term retests of long term retests normal? I feel like if it makes it to the low 740’s, she’s just gonna keep going…

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 8:33 pm

      Hehe I like that, “breathing all the way down to 740.”

      From what I’ve seen of the charts, there are like three groups of stocks. One group got a nice bounce off the rally. Like Wells Fargo – now that was a big bounce. Other stocks, Intel, a bounce, but not all that great – and now down today. And then there’s BNI, which was more of a thud. It just moved sideways, as did Apache (APA).

      So I’m guessing the thuds will definitely go down once this “rally” is over. I mean, come on Apache! Oil is up maybe $8 total and you go nowhere? During a “rally”? I bought it for its rebound and link to oil, and sold it off in disgust when it went nowhere. Same with MMM, and BNI. Still have Intel, but not sure for how much longer.

  61. proudPapa(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:30 pm

    Albeit on low volume… will probably hold overnight, would buy puts as insurance if i could

  62. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:32 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 9:19 pm

      “How much longer will they cooperate?”

      My best guess is once they’re convinced commodities have bottomed, if they plan on dumping Treasuries. I just don’t see a strong dollar long term, already there are numerous reports China has been investing heavily in commodities, but prices don’t seem to reflect the activity yet. Maybe it will be a slow commodities ramp? Obviously consumption has cratered, explaining lower prices, and not until demand returns will prices begin ramping, will China resume consumption while the US and Europe stagnate? I doubt it, so China is letting commodities prices come to them meanwhile. Is their TOG going to be selling US Treasuries and buying commodities, or will they keep buying both in support of status-quo?

      • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 10:27 pm

        CP,

        I’d like to know what are the indicators that the Chinese start doing what you asked? I’m sure the Chinese weigh risks and benefits all the time regarding what to do with their cash. I’d just like to know what the early indicators are?

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          February 27, 2009 at 3:08 am

          dberryclan – I was thinking how I’d heard while Secretary of State Clinton was in China at the podium, there were Chinese dignitaries leaving China for various locations. I’ve also read (somewhere, can’t recall where) there have been high level meetings with Australian commodities companies. You do of course remember Chinese officials recently visiting Venezuela and reports of potential commodities mining agreements there. I’ll be sure to pay more attention to the source of these reports in the future, I assumed everyone here was ahead of me on the subject of China’s potential interest in exchanging their US paper for commodities.

          Meanwhile:
          http://chinaview.cn/hjt090210/
          http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/business/worldbu

      • EDC(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 11:16 pm

        They will continue to buy treasuries until the music stops. To much speculation on that topic.

        They are only hunting PMs, nothing else. They have enough ‘recyclable’ commodities to last almost a decade. Or I should put it like this, they built about 15-20 years of growth in 5-6 years already. There are 3-4 empty manhattans in Beijing alone. Over half of their factories are closed, no plans on bringing them back anytime soon. Un-employment is skyrocketing there, wages are less than POINT 3% of GDP (0.3%). So if wages went up, they couldn’t employ their citizens.

        China is a bust and they will be foolish enough to continue to buy our treasuries in hopes that the USA consumer can lead them out of this Export bubble. If not they will continue to depress their currency in hopes that will stimulate their economy, meanwhile they should do the opposite but if they did then they would unpeg it to the dollar but that would almost certainly crash their currency months later.

        Short the rips on China, as I have little faith in them or their policies.

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          February 27, 2009 at 3:37 am

          norm – “China is a bust and they will be foolish enough to continue to buy our treasuries in hopes that the USA consumer can lead them out of this Export bubble. If not they will continue to depress their currency in hopes that will stimulate their economy, meanwhile they should do the opposite but if they did then they would unpeg it to the dollar but that would almost certainly crash their currency months later.”

          Any links to where this information comes from? I think it’s questionable to believe China is foolish.

          • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
            February 27, 2009 at 4:34 am

            I dunno pookie. The chinese have had the winds at their backs for 2 decades now, not necessarily because of skillful planning. It’s not hard to imagine them making some big mistakes over the next couple of years as they cope with a restless populace, not unlike American politicians… Should be interesting to watch as you would expect them, not being a democracy and not having to pander to voters. But still, rebellions wouldn’t help their ambitions.

  63. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:39 pm

    unbelievable! still not 1 criminal or police who failed to police has been convicted of ANY wrong doing. nothing is being done to fix the core problems. my lord. i really need to start preparing an emergency plan to be able to leave America on a moment’s notice if i have to.

    http://tinyurl.com/de2hwe

  64. Babybear(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:44 pm

    Is it me or is the market doing exceptionally well today, given a bunch of negative news? Bill said over and over again, when the market shrugss off the bad news, it is the new bull starting. Are we there?

    Morning:

    Horrible new home sales;
    Horrible bad durable goods sales;
    Horrible employment report;
    Scary budget from the White House;

    And this in the afternoon:

    Banks insured by the FDIC posted a collective loss of $26.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008, the agency said Thursday, as the percentage of charged off loans tied a quarterly record of 1.91%.

    The grim results compared to a $575 million profit during the fourth quarter of 2007.

    “Rising loan-loss provisions, losses from trading activities and goodwill write-downs all contributed to the quarterly net loss as banks continue to repair their balance sheets in order to return to profitability in future periods,” the FDIC said in a press release.

    Sheila Bair, the agency’s chief, said in a press conference that there will be no quick fix to the banking crisis and that troubled loans will keep rising.

    She said the number of “problem” banks identified by the FDIC rose to 252 in the fourth quarter, compared to 171 banks at the end of the previous quarter.

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 8:51 pm

      Considering how much we were up in the AM, i would say today was a bad day. Indices didn’t tell the whole story.

      http://tinyurl.com/448sbq

      New lows vs new highs

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 9:20 pm

      IMO, it was a good day for banks. Look at the closing prices for BAC, JPM, WFC, GS.

      • David(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 9:31 pm

        I guess I was misled by the indexes today, since this turned out to be the explanation of the market’s collapse: “Weak health care stocks drag market lower,” as I read in Yahoo news. XLF did finish up on the day, and is up even more after hours. BTU/ACI are having a large jump after hours — I wonder why? Things are probably not as bad as the indexes say…

        In any case, my taking some profit today was consistent with Bill’s notion that until S&P 500 firmly regains the 800 level, the risk is high, and profits should be taken fast.

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 9:50 pm

      Babybear – “Is it me or is the market doing exceptionally well today, given a bunch of negative news? Bill said over and over again, when the market shrugss off the bad news, it is the new bull starting. “

      That’s a really interesting point. I’m so new at this trading stuff, I wouldn’t know a bear market bottom if it bit me. I want to see a big clean bounce, like we did back in October. And I’m definitely NOT seeing one of those.

      But maybe the wayback machine can help.

      Looking back at a chart at the bear market of 2002, I see a double bottom, kinda like what we’re seeing today. In fact, the pattern looks really quite similar.. Check it out. (I hope the links work). The first bounce in 2002 is clean. Hits bottom one day, up and off to the races the next. But the second bottom is muddier, soggier. It spends 4 days at the bottom. But then it takes off, after one of those “bullish engulfments” occur, on about Oct 13.

      SPX from 2002:
      http://tinyurl.com/d2ycez
      SPX Today:
      http://tinyurl.com/d69q9t

      Really interesting point. Everyone can talk about all the bad news, me included. The whole market is wallowing in bad news. And I admit it, for some reason I just can’t stop reading about it. So your point about the market not absolutely tanking with all this bad news is – it really makes me think. Maybe I shouldn’t have sold Intel. Or shorted Wells Fargo. 🙂

      We will see more tomorrow. Thanks for pointing this out, its maybe the most useful thing I read today. Even if we don’t get that nice bounce off this week, it’s a very helpful thing to keep in mind.

  65. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:46 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/bgfa9v

    How can any outside country buy U.S debt unless they have a huge gun (missile) pointed at them?

  66. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:49 pm

    Sentiment is negative, I bought C long for a contrary trade.
    I’ll sell tomorrow good bad or ugly…..
    It’s the numbers.

  67. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 8:56 pm

    Crude is rising (2nd day), base metal miners and now even PM miners, next should be PM’s.

  68. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 9:09 pm

    The Wifes debit card number got lifted yesterday and I now I have my own “financial crisis”. What a pain in the butt. The guy has only tried to buy 2K worth of car parts to be shipped to Chicago the last two days. Of course no one in law enforcement wants anything to do with a credit card fraud case. Very frustrating.

    • loannetter(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 9:28 pm

      Pillzilla, Did your bank acknowledge the breach could have come from within? They must notify you, but sadly your bank and mine often send out their breach of security notices many months after discovery. One trick is to have one low balance credit (not debit) card for online purchases which can easily be disputed. Unfortunately once a party has your debit card they are harder to detect, stop and get your money back. I write an info blog on this as a service to my clients since I was defrauded in 2001. (I don’t sell any service related to credit repair) http://www.netcredit.blogspot.com All the best to you and your wife.

      • Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 9:51 pm

        No, bank didn’t notify us. I just happened to be on the Wellsfargo .com and noticed some big charges that just came in pending. Cancelled card instantly and this guy is still trying to buy stuff. I wish this on no one. Scum of the earth. I then put both of us on fraud alert with all three credit bureaus. They also have our address which makes me wonder what else they have. For now, simply cancelling the card and changing all passwords seems to be sufficient. I called the places where charges were made and told them of the fraud and they are cancelling orders.

        • loannetter(118083 comments)-
          February 27, 2009 at 2:40 am

          Wow, good thing you caught it! Should be easy to prove the charges were not yours but just to cement the proof, it’s advisable to make a police report of this incident. My police report of a stolen check came in handy 5 years later when the same bum tried to say I had given him ‘permission’ in a trial. The nice officer will give you a file number and some of the credit bureaus will require you file that full report and a complaint to get a permanent credit freeze in your state. That’s not a bad idea if they have your address. Do you shred your letters before putting out the trash? Once you have a credit freeze the bums can’t apply for credit cards in your name. Identity theft is THE biggest crime in the USA, happening like 19 times per second. Also, you can get a free report from each of the bureaus once you have been identified as a victim of identity theft or fraud. Order one per month (over 3 month period) Time consuming stuff. Take a very close look at all your accounts for small ‘test’ charges that look suspicious. Bummer I know. Been there.

  69. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 9:39 pm
    • Northforker(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 10:08 pm

      I spent more than 20 years working at Time magazine. I worked with Zagorin & Weisskopf & respect them highly. I don’t know the “young bloods” on the staff. The magazine’s brief has always been news for the “educated masses…” But they’re getting killed by online media, revenue wise, and have had to cut back substantially on staff, news bureaus, & research etc–nothing new there. They are still trying to find their new niche, and are turning more to investigative & original reportage, rather than just a sophisticated regurgitation of the week’s events. I think they have improved from the days when they touted Cisco on the cover of the mag in March of 2000… And I too believe a vibrant mainstream media is important. It is scary to see about six big daily newspapers go under in as many days…

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 2:28 am

      Great attempt, but only scratching the surface IMO… Okay so Cox was AWOL SEC Chairman, we figured that his frequent vacations were complimentary someone. Now go snoop around and find out who else is still sleeping on the job. I’ll bet you could find them all napping in the same room somewhere and maybe even follow a trail back to whomever is paying them to look the other way.

      I’d also like to suggest additional story ideas: Why not write about each of the political figures front and center FDIC, SEC, FED, Senate, House, investment bankers, GSE management etc. and make a scorecard for each? I’d like to read about how effective their careers have been (successes vs failures) and the economic impact their decisions have had.

      • Illini(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 3:47 am

        I have not had time for Time since long ago. Same for Newsweek and US News & World Report (is it still around?). They are strictly for waits in doctors & dentists offices since I don’t pack a Blackberry.

        The articles cited are interesting but hey, I will catch them at my next appointment. By that “Time” we may be on the upswing out of the recession/depression. Maybe they will have more to expose about Cox, Geitner, Paulson, Bernanke, Thain and their predecessors including Greenspan, Rubin and, whats his name, Summers.

  70. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 9:56 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/dfdxe5

    “The budget also would raise taxes on capital gains and dividends to 20 percent for top earners, up from the 15 percent set by former President George W. Bush in 2003.”

    oh my. i really need to get my plan together to have a backup to living in U.S.

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 10:12 pm

      My feeling is, any tax rate below “ordinary income” for capital gains and dividends is a gift. The poor working guy has to pay full freight. Why should I complain if my discount gets lowered a little bit?

      Now if ordinary income taxes are raised to 60 or 70 percent, that’s a reason to start thinking about a new home.

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 10:20 pm

        not going to debate as everyone has own opinions. but i would prefer if you and i were not taxed any income taxes.

        Edit: I guess i need to open an acct at UBS. 🙂

        EDIT 2: oh and Obama will raise income taxes on your wage for top earners as well. “The budget proposal would increase the top income tax rate from 35% to 39.6%”

        And this is all just the beginning. When they realize none of this will be enough to shore up the doodoo on the balance sheets of banks + the bankruptcy of the USD, they will raise it more.
        http://tinyurl.com/d4le62

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          February 26, 2009 at 10:37 pm

          Sure I’d love to change the tax system as well.

          I also think Obama is going to raise taxes for sure. We’ve probably got a 10% across the board tax increase coming. And not just because of health care, because of these bailouts, and wars, social security, and at some point the foreigners won’t buy bonds anymore and we won’t be able to (entirely) print our way out so – yes, I think higher taxes are on the way. My feeling is, we ain’t seen nothin yet.

          Sigh.

          Kaimu’s cost of EMPIRE strikes again.

          • barry(118083 comments)-
            February 26, 2009 at 11:29 pm

            I am disappointed at all the pork, earmarks, and deception we are getting from Obama right now. Obama has the qualities to be a really great leader, and I hoped he was. Instead I see more and more evidence of just another sleazy Chicago pol. Its really too bad for the country. We need ethical, committed honest leadership.

  71. bobj(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 10:04 pm

    I believe westcoaster mentioned this a while ago. It is an open end mutual fund trust that holds equal dollar amounts of gold, silver & platinum. As opposed to CEF and GTU which are closed end and usually trade at a 10-20% premium to NAV, BMG always trades at the NAV. Does anyone have any thoughts or purchased units?

    • westcoaster(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 12:26 am

      “I believe westcoaster mentioned this a while ago. It is an open end mutual fund trust that holds equal dollar amounts of gold, silver & platinum. As opposed to CEF and GTU which are closed end and usually trade at a 10-20% premium to NAV, BMG always trades at the NAV. Does anyone have any thoughts or purchased units?”

      Bought some. The manager, Nick Barisheff seems like the kind of PM zealot who would take care of my share of the bars.

  72. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 10:06 pm

    I have a close friend in Nassau [David Wilkins, the Nassau Hash House Harrier Hash Master, in fact] who owns several apartments that are available for short-term rental i.e. week to week; all are fully-equipped including appliances, towels, sheets, crockery, cutlery, etc etc. I don’t know what he has available for Cara Bahamas Conference 2009 week, but I do know it’s a good place to stay, if available. All units have private entrances, cable TV and high-speed internet. Prices range from $250/week for an efficiency unit to $370 for a large one-bed apartment. He also has a two-bed cottage for rent (equipped as above) either short-term or long-term (lease agreement), which can be used for example as a ‘pad’ plus office that could be set-up with a dedicated very high-speed internet conx plus UPS back-up. When available, the cottage rents for $485/week on a week-to-week basis or $1300 monthly with a lease agreement. All the above are located together in a pleasant, quiet and safe location with on-site security (my friend, the owner), off-street parking, on-site laundry. As the location is off Village Road, not far from Eastern Road (ocean), you will need a car to get around. Interested parties can contact David Wilkins directly through the Hash (http://www.nassauhash.com/), with or without mentioning my name, or by emailing me to fwd your interest. I did stay there for 10 days when moving back to Nassau about a year ago, and I recommend it. It’s not a resort hotel, but the price is right. Has a swimming pool and beautiful garden, and David (English) and wife (Canadian from Kingston) are super people. If there are any of you who want to share or just cut your expenses while here for the Conference, please consider this alternative.

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 10:48 pm

      Dude…that settles it….

      I’M MOVING TO THE BAHAMAS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 11:02 pm

        Cost efficiencies. If a group of us formed some type of llc and bought a larger estate and shared % ownership, we could all live comfortably. make sure there is a rentable area for tourists. hire staff to work/cook. and eventually sell it and share in the profits down the road. just a thought.

        • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
          February 26, 2009 at 11:11 pm

          NYUgrad, if you are serious, I’ll find the right place, negotiate the deal, hire the right staff, etc.

          • westcoaster(118083 comments)-
            February 27, 2009 at 12:22 am

            Thanks for your continuing efforts to get us there Bill.

            I’ve been anguishing over coming to the conference. I want to come, but would like to split a room or a place with someone to keep costs reasonable. I haven’t been able to convince anyone to join me. Westjet still running a sale on seats from Canada around that time.

            I’m not much of a trader, no time, but I enjoy the company here and would like to hang out, attend the sessions to see what I can absorb, get some sun, and join the fun. (Cheap drinks is an attraction!)

            I’m not hard to get along with if anyone wants to buddy up. I’m thinking of coming Thursday to Tuesday and could be convinced to take a 1 week rental.

          • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
            February 27, 2009 at 1:13 am

            Westcoaster,

            if you decide to go, make sure you check out Air Canada before booking – when I booked mine, AC had cheaper tickets vs Westjet’s sale price.

          • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
            February 27, 2009 at 1:25 am

            Bill,hopefully we will have time to chat at ctab bahamas. I am not ready to buy an estate by my lonesome self. But I do plan on staying for the full session to learn about Bahamas realty and benefits of business there. As well as physical gold by Kaimu. As you know I still count on a paycheck to fund my trading and rental properties in North Carolina. Looking fwd to thanking you for all you have taught me in a short time.

        • Fazeli(118083 comments)-
          February 26, 2009 at 11:40 pm

          I like that idea 🙂 Toronto’s had a long winter, and some sun, sand, and sea sounds nice year-round.

  73. bluesky(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 10:21 pm

    Tell me Timothy Geithner doesn’t remind you of this character!

    From Wikipedia:
    “Eric is then given the chance to answer a question, and potentially win the contest, however he is ironically asked to answer a question about business ethics. Eric cannot answer the question, and begins to break down.”

    The actor even looks similar: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_Whitford

  74. Craig(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 11:09 pm

    In order to get out of U.S. income tax, you will need to renounce your citizenship…..which may lose it’s luster in favor of massive debt anyway….

    US citizenship may be a sign of stupidity in the future (?).

    You might be able to incorporate offshore and then never repatriate your funds.
    Ask your local Cayman Island banking or Halliburton representative, they seem to do it all the time.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      February 26, 2009 at 11:21 pm

      Americans are taxed on world income regardless of residency, yes, but there can be legitimate advantages, and US tax lawyers can advise.

      There may be no personal or corporate income tax here in Bahamas, but there is a fiscal regime nonetheless. It is mostly pay-as-you-go, which is as close to good as it gets.

      On a per capital basis, the US foreign reserves in the Bahamas are significantly greater than held by the Chinese, etc. So, despite the tourism woes that affect the world, the Bahamas Dollar is strong and will remain interchangeable to visitors here. Just don’t take it home with you unless you plan to return soon.

      And, speaking of tourism, the Spring Break bookings this year to Freeport (especially) and Bimini and also to Nassau are ahead of last year. As legal drinking age here is 18 and the place is rather laid back, it seems like heaven to the average college kid. Many years ago, as one of those spring breaker college kids, I came here to Freeport. I have been coming back ever since. Now I live and work here.

      • EDC(118083 comments)-
        February 26, 2009 at 11:56 pm

        Bahamas sounds good, where is the brochure?

        It is definately going to make the cut, sign me up.

  75. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 11:10 pm

    Nice idea. Let’s buy it in about 3, maybe 5 years after the guy’s so desperate to sell that he will take a million in cash and a first class ticket back to Cleveland.

  76. EDC(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 11:19 pm

    Grym,

    I agree with what your saying. The process will take time but just continue to protect your capital.

    Citizenship – If you have two generations born in the EU, you can apply for a passport from that EU country.

  77. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 11:46 pm

    One of the few failures for the retailing giant…


    Wal-Mart Stores Inc’s Canadian division said on Thursday it will close its Sam’s Club locations in Ontario to focus instead on opening more Wal-Mart supercenters.

    “Despite our best efforts and the commendable work of our Sam’s Club associates, our six Clubs have not met our expectations,” said David Cheesewright, president and chief executive of Wal-Mart Canada, in a statement.

    http://tinyurl.com/cgculy

  78. Illini(118083 comments)-
    February 26, 2009 at 11:52 pm

    Is that a euphemism for a system based on sales tax? If so, I wonder what the low income folks think of it. Of course I realize that it is a tourism based economy. Maybe that provides some balm to those who make the beds.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 5:00 am

      “Is that a euphemism for a system based on sales tax?”

      No, in The Bahamas there are no sales or value added taxes either. The revenue of the govt is approx as follows:
      49% – Import & export duties on consumables (food & bev), autos & construction materials
      24% – Transaction (Stamp) tax on exchange of currencies, real estate purchases, etc
      10% – Airport & seaport transit tax and hotel room tax
      6% – Property tax
      5% – Company fees, eg, I pay $12,500 annual work permit; $1,250 securities regulator fees
      3% – Motor vehicle registrations
      3% – Casino revenue tax

      Yes, the poor people do pay more in this system, and there are relatively fewer social services in return, which requires a stronger social net. That explains why there are so many churches and clubs, and the reason family is so important. But at the end of the day, the poor tend not to be paying into (along with the well-off and the tourists) more than about 25% of the total taxes of the country, and that relates mostly to import duties on food and beverage.

      The point is that Bahamas is a pay-as-you-go nation and it gets by with no taxes whatsoever on corporate or personal income or capital gains. The real benefit to many of us here is the fact that without an income tax system there is no filing burden on us or system cost to government. Don’t ever underestimate the cost to manage the Income Tax Act in a high-tax jurisdiction, and the cost of using lawyers and accountants to beat the loopholes that are designed for the well-off.

      I believe that the fiscal regime of The Bahamas is the most fair in the world and ought to be a model of best practices. Instead, the high tax jurisdictions call it a “tax haven” which is a complete and utter misrepresentation because every legal person or entity in this country is subject to the same fiscal regime. The fact is that tax evaders in high tax jurisdictions are the cheaters. Some cheaters just forget to file, as in the case of the Senators and head of the New York Fed who sought political confirmation to join the Obama Administration, and some try to hide behind the skirts of another country. If Mr & Mrs Smith or Corporation X of the US decide to come to the Bahamas to bury their undeclared assets in the sand, ask yourself if that is just cause to blame The Bahamas nation. That is simply another example of the deceit that pervades the US government, and has nothing to do with The Bahamas. Moreover, the bankers who aid and abet the tax cheaters are not Bahamian banks; they are Swiss, American, Canadian, British, German, and so forth, and their senior representatives here are almost exclusively ex-pats. In addition, since there is no income tax act here, there is no expertise in that area among Bahamas lawyers and accountants.

      Strip down all the nonsense and what is left is that The Bahamas has an outstanding system of pay-as-you-go. The only reason why it’s not the envy of the world is that the G-20 high tax jurisdictions are envious that ours is a fiscal regime that does not benefit politicians, the tax industry, and those who can avoid pay-as-you-go. In this country, being poor is a real hardship, so people try as they might to avoid it.

      • ChrisM(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 6:03 am

        Suppose we had such a system here in the USA, or even a simple flat tax, how many IRS employees, accountants and tax lawyers would be available for useful work? And for the rest of us, what would we do with all the time we wouldn’t be spending filing income tax returns? How could society cope? Nah, Uncle Sam’s looking out for us, he won’t let it happen.

        • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
          February 27, 2009 at 10:42 am

          Re: how many IRS employees, accountants and tax lawyers would be available for useful work?… Nah, Uncle Sam’s looking out for us, he won’t let it happen.

          If these people want to be employed by govt, let them serve in Afghanistan or Iraq. In that case, I’m certain most of them would find productive work real fast.

      • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 8:30 am

        Without doing a great deal of research on the issue of taxes Bill, I’d say this is about control, not monetary distribution (I gather you’re suggesting something similar). Having studied theories of power as part of media and communication and learned an extraordinary amount of non-disseminated information and discussion on this website, I must admit to being in admiration for our elites who have managed to stitch up democratic government in such a sneaky and underhanded manner.

        Ideology, bureaucracy, military expansionism, trade liberalisation – all came together within just over a hundred years of the liberty gained through popular revolution to return people to slavery in the first great depression. Minor repeal through legislative protection for the people that delayed the agenda for 50 odd years was finally stripped back and the full force of their efforts are now being felt.

        That HB&B, aided and abetted by a congress in their pocket, are now destroying our future by impoverishing our children through taxation and reduced basic services, while cutting off lifelines to the individual through reduced choice in financial services and making independent financial trading unaffordable is a very simple yet brutal means of rendering liberated people into chattel once again.

  79. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 12:37 am
    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 1:38 am

      Fireworks,

      Awesome video, thanks!

      This is required viewing for anybody who doesn’t believe CNBC and its brethren are just shills for the powers that be. Ron Paul’s speech isn’t anything new to most of us here, but it cuts right to the point: “can’t recapitalize with debt”.

      The CNBC anchor’s response? Let’s go to commercial so we don’t have to interrupt when something substantive is actually being discussed.

      brutal…

  80. vinod(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 12:54 am

    2nd
    I am at REALITYTRADER TRADING ROOM for one week free trial.
    It is very good learning experience. I have to decide if I have enough time during the day to join them. I found it to be very useful even though I do not understand all aspect of it but they do answer all question when I asked. Also I feel I need to have some technical knowledge. I will say approach of reality trader is such that one can be a good successful day trade. I have many other commitment so cannot spend more than few hour a day on market. So, I am thing how to do this.
    Lately it is not working for me trading on my own. I am still 90% cash and sold todaty USO/UNG/ESLR which were 10% of my capital and took little hit.
    I do not have confident on any stock now. Any good and solid stock can go to $5. Look at GE. I also feel that taking about politics or expressing opinion is west of time and does not generate profit at end of the day. When I started last year I was in grew or was lucky and did very good until September. Nothing good to show for after that time.
    Expecting that market will go to 1000 that never happen now look like will be lucky if it hit 8000. I misunderstood level of the problem and cannot find correct approach to follow.

    • proudPapa(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 1:45 am

      I feel your pain vinod. My approach lately has been modified to somewhat resemble bsi’s, i.e. the capitulation play.

      Used the RSI screen to found very oversold quality stocks that are sitting at resistance or have fallen substantially below lows. Placing relatively large bets (last year my port was handicapped by diWorsification) and cutting the position loose if the expected resistance fails. Sometimes with hard stops, but more with mental stops.

      Seems so obvious, but all too often in the past a losing position would turn into an ‘investment’. Also put about 50% of port into GIC’s/CD’s to keep under any one banks federally insured limits.

      Currently my only position is CAT which took a mild beating today, and will have the knife to it’s throat with an eye on the tape tomorrow…

    • Dboy(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 2:34 am

      “I am still 90% cash and sold todaty USO/UNG/ESLR which were 10% of my capital and took little hit.”

      What were your signals for going long UNG? It’s in a clear downtrend. It pulled back to a trendline about a week ago (as I recall at 19 or so), tested, and failed. I font see anything on UNG that says long…not yet anyway. Probably closer to a bottom than a top (I’d use $2.00 on spot natgas as a potential mental target). They could send UNG in the range of $8-9/sh. Forget the macro arguments like fertilizer, natural gas cliff, etc. and just listen to the market. UNG is telling you not to buy it yet. At the very least, watch it with a 20EMA which it has been respecting lately.

      “I have many other commitment so cannot spend more than few hour a day on market.”

      Then day-trading is probably not the approach you want to use right now. Try a trend-following approach off the daily charts. I highly recommend “Trend Following”, by Covel.

      “I do not have confident on any stock now.”

      This has been an incredibly difficult market. There’s no rule that you have to trade every day.

      “I also feel that taking about politics or expressing opinion is west of time and does not generate profit at end of the day. “

      I agree with you completely. Politics is already in the price. It’s all about the price. The rest of the conversations here will not help you in the slightest, and might even confuse you.

      “Nothing good to show for after that time.
      Expecting that market will go to 1000 that never happen now look like will be lucky if it hit 8000. I misunderstood level of the problem and cannot find correct approach to follow.”

      Why did you expect the market to do a particular thing? Why not WATCH what the market does and then RESPOND to it. Market’s breathe. Inhale, exhale. That’s what you have to tune into. When you say “8000” I assume you mean the DJIA.. you might want to start watching the S&P 500. The 30 Dow stocks are IN the S&P, and I do not believe that the 30 Dow stocks yield any understanding of what the markets are up to.

      dboy

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 2:50 am

        Dboy
        Thanks. It been difficult to understand some time, like why I brought UNG.
        After reading SIO2 and David post I knew I made mistake and was waiting to unload it

        • SiO2(118083 comments)-
          February 27, 2009 at 3:16 am

          With regards to UNG, I too was wrong in expecting a seasonality trade of UNG that did not happen. Oil prices dropped too much (this was expected), and the deep slowdown pushed NG way down (not expected at the time). Now I agree that we may see somewhere around mid $3s before $5s. $2s I don’t think so, but 3s quite possible. A straddle on UNG would have worked too!

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 3:27 am

        Dboy – “Politics is already in the price. It’s all about the price. The rest of the conversations here will not help you in the slightest, and might even confuse you.”

        I can agree with this only partially. I sensed the market was headed for trouble a couple years ago, and it wasn’t prices that told me this, as far as I know. I think it was a wide variety of fundamental indicators.

        I’m curious though, how does one feel confident watching only a chart? Many of us here burn the midnight oil reading all kind of news articles. Waste of time?

        • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
          February 27, 2009 at 4:06 am

          “I’m curious though, how does one feel confident watching only a chart? Many of us here burn the midnight oil reading all kind of news articles. Waste of time?”

          I’d say, pretty much depends on your time frame. The shorter it is the less need in deep research. Day trading can be done based on charts with some rough idea of what is happening and usually, although not necessary, with real time newsfeed. Scalping for anything from 10 cents to a dollar can be done solely on charts (well, Level II and T&S too of course).

          Main thing to resolve for someone who bases decisions on fundamentals and other research is, they do not provide timing mechanism. Phrase “I bought oil today because I believe in peak of oil production” makes no sense because if there is such peak, it was there yesterday and will be tomorrow; Yet today’s price is lower than yesterday, so what happened to the peak overnight, and who is to say tomorrow’s price won’t be even lower? But we will talk more about that in Bahamas in just one month.

      • barry(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 11:46 am

        FWIW, I liked the July out of the money calls here as I am expecting NATGAS to have a delayed seasonal. From what I have read (no URLs handy) rig count is falling and Ngas contracts will be filled in the first Q and then production fall into the seasonal build demand – in spite of the recession. If interesting, you could get the July calls very cheap last week (20th), they may be again, and there should be little time decay testing the idea for a month or so.

        I am not sure how big a Simmons fan I am, but he addresses the NATGAS issues the 2nd half of the report here (in his usual dramatic manner)

        http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Commercial%20C

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 4:29 am

      Vinod-

      My take is that trading is primarily a psychological game, and there are thus countless approaches that will work. Each individual is unique. My perceptions, reflexes, reactions, tolerances, predispositions, as well the level of confidence I invest in each of those characteristics will be entirely different than yours.

      There are many systems out there. I respect them all. There are traders who will criticize systems they have tried and do not work/haven’t worked for them. There are traders who will criticize systems they THINK they understand but have never tried. Or never tried to understand. Or outside their comfort zone. Or at odds with their beliefs. Some traders succeed consistently using systems they don’t understand themselves, and have no interest in understanding. On and on. You get the picture, which is basically a reflection of the complexity of the human psyche.

      Don’t be so hard on yourself. It is, after all, the worst bear market either of us has ever seen.

      You don’t think you’re doing well? I disagree. On a relative basis, you’re outperforming just about any reasonable benchmark, except perhaps your own (which is just another way of saying it’s all mental). Going back to the climbing analogy, if we were all at 14000 ft in the fall of 2007, it sounds as if you’re basically still there. I found shelter at 14000 ft, decided it was safe to resume climbing when the storm abated at DJIA 10000, and promptly got blown back 3000 ft to 10500 ft. Doesn’t bother me that much, as conversations with colleagues who have stuck with buy-and-hold tell me they took the full brunt and ended back at 7000 ft.

      What leads you to expect any more than that? I have a theory of relativity that works well when I feel things aren’t going that well. None of us is born into this world entitled to anything. Yet complaints fly all over the place. Some people are born into a time of peace, and some into a time of turmoil and war. What of it? Some are tall, and some are short. Some people are physically quite attractive. Some are quite attractive at 18, but you wouldn’t recognize them at 50. Others age quite well, and you have a hard time imagining the person you know at 50 was an ugly duckling at 18. Some people have IQs in the top 1%, but have never had a date. Some people date a lot but never marry. A lot of people get married, but to the ‘wrong’ person. I have one acquaintance who came to the US after losing everything, and now has more than he would have had he stayed where he was. You know, there are so many amazing stories out there that each person I interact with, regardless of what my initial impressions are (in fact, regardless of what my later impressions are as well), I have to give them the benefit of the doubt.

      I’ve been trading for 15 years. For me, it’s become a natural part of my life. My ‘system’ is not complicated, it’s exactly what I’ve described many times in this blog. If I had to guess, I’ve averaged about 8-9% a year, and had fun doing it. I haven’t made a fortune at it (I’ve made a lot more in real estate with far less effort). I started gambling in Nevada about 12 years ago, and found that the same perceptions that worked in trading work in Vegas. I probably walk away from the tables with more money 80% of the time (I fly to Nevada about once every two years for a convention or vacation). I don’t take trading or gaming all that seriously. Life is about family, friends, and the meaning you choose to find in living.

      So you haven’t done all that well the past six months? It’s all mental…

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 4:39 am

        Thanks. I always enjoy conversation with you. I strongly believe that money can be made in bull or bear market. And it is my handicap that I could not play bear as good as I played the bull. If I am not concern/worried or have tension of not making in bear market I will not success in trading. Since I have taken this route. I am looking right combination to make it successful

      • loannetter(118083 comments)-
        February 27, 2009 at 5:54 am

        2nd, It sounds to me that trading is one part passion, one part information, one part intuition and two parts art…informed by your experience (personal) tolerance for risk and conditions (particular timing). Those are all admirable qualities-especially in combination!

  81. baz22(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 2:35 am

    That’s it ????? … I guess we see how much ‘ Oversight ‘ really means to Washington…. Some things Never change…..

  82. greg(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 3:10 am

    I was outside tonight and the moon looks like a shadow over 85% of it yet I cannot find any info in regards to what is happening. Does anyone know? I am in San Diego with clear skys.

  83. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 4:46 am
    • Babybear(118083 comments)-
      February 27, 2009 at 4:52 am

      Is this a dilution? To anyone who bought at above $5 it is. To those who bought at around $2 — congratulations!

  84. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 5:42 am

    boats currently either shipwrecked or taking on water fast:

    – Wall St
    – Housing/Mortgage industry
    – The War in Middle East
    – Social Security
    – Healthcare
    – Local State deficits
    – 5M+ on unemployment benefits and growing
    – Automotive industry
    – Insurance Industry

    All above being paid for by debt. What is the breaking point on these printing presses?

    Will the next step in govt be to mandate each of us has to have a MINIMUM of 5 children so they can grow up to be tax slaves?

  85. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 6:49 am

    So many smart people here. I love hearing from everyone. Factual, sometimes opinionated, expert, thoughtful, sincere, such a good group of teachers for me. Sometimes teachers, fellow travelers, I don’t know what to call it. But its a good thing.

  86. swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 7:34 am

    Oh look, the ‘we will not nationalise’, private-public partnership is about to get rolling…

    “The government is on the verge of closing a deal to significantly boost its ownership stake in Citigroup. In return, it will demand changes be made on the troubled banking giant’s board and other conditions, according to a person with knowledge of the discussions.”

    What will this accomplish?

  87. swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 7:39 am

    Those royalty trusts I spoke of yesterday morning went nuts after hours – 15% rises in PBT after hours.

    what gives?

    edit: ah I see the problem. Jim Cramer opened his mouth. Good, might be able to offload PBT in the next couple of sessions…

  88. swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 8:37 am

    Is that someone I see in Beijing hanging out on this site?

    Wouldn’t the sort of thinking that goes on here be punishable by 20 years hard labour?

  89. swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 9:29 am

    First time I’ve watched Jim Cramer. Funny guy. A saturday night live wannabee doing stocks.

  90. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 11:13 am

    http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2009/02/go-do-voodoo-th

    Goldman, Regional Banks, Dow Industrials all at critical technical junctures

  91. Grym(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 1:35 pm
  92. Grym(118083 comments)-
    February 27, 2009 at 1:49 pm

Leave A Comment

You must be logged in to post a comment.