Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009

[7:07am ET] Several things are on my mind this morning, particularly the question of why the main

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  1. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 12:04 pm

    Aug 31, 2009 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) — SPNG | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating — BUYINS.NET,, is initiating coverage of SpongeTech Delivery Systems (OTCBB: SPNG | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) after releasing the latest short sale data to August 2009. From December 2006 to August 2009 approximately 12.6 billion total aggregate shares of SPNG have traded for a total dollar value of approximately $1.13 billion. The total aggregate number of shares shorted in this time period is approximately 972 million shares. The SPNG SqueezeTrigger price of $0.09 is the volume weighted average short price of all short selling in SPNG. A series of short squeezes has begun as shares of SPNG have jumped from $0.006 to $0.22 and 99% of all shares shorted in SPNG are now out-of-the-money. To access SqueezeTrigger Prices ahead of potential short squeezes beginning, visit
    Morning all.

    Can anyone elaborate on the following rules? Does this apply to all shorts in US markets. First paragraph is fairly straight forward. Second paragraph I’d like to understand better. TIA

    SpongeTech has been on the OTCBB Threshold Security List (anaked short lista) a total of 85 trading days since January 1, 2005 and is presently on the list from July 24, 2009 to through August 25th, a total of 23 consecutive trading days. Short sellers and the broker dealers accepting their short sale orders are out-of-compliance with the new Reg SHO buy-in requirement at the time this report was generated. In late October 2008 the SEC updated Regulation SHO requiring that all short sellers must locate, borrow and deliver any shares they have shorted, no exceptions, by T+3 settlement date. If not, a buy-in must be forced by the broker dealer that the short seller transacted through by the opening of the market on T+4. Since a company first appears on the naked short list when short sellers have been failing to deliver for 5 consecutive trading days, SPNG should theoretically never be on the naked short list again. BUYINS.NET will monitor the OTCBB naked short list daily and issue an alert and notify the SEC and FINRA should short sellers fail to deliver and SPNG continues on the exchangeais Threshold Security List.

  2. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 12:10 pm


  3. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 12:12 pm

    Good morning.

    INTC – PT Raised from $22 to $24 @ Deutsche Securities. Buy


    Monday Morning Blues :

    Paul Geremia – “Uncle Sam’s Backyard” :

  4. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 12:15 pm

    This is an interactive map. Use the slider.

  5. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 12:26 pm
    • johnuk(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 1:06 pm

      I too enjoyed the GP yesterday Bill,its interesting how fast things can change ,
      i.e. Force India a new team with a podium position, Hamilton and Jensen Button out (due to poor qualifying) along with many others after a scrappy start.Just like the markets, anything can happen ,change coming when all seems calm and predictable.

      On another note, UK,London market closed today ,August Bank holiday ..

  6. nemo(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 12:40 pm
  7. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 12:50 pm

    Glad something i mentioned here Friday is being paid attention to. the volume on C, AIG, CIT, FRE, FNM = 30% of all market volume of late. They are not growth stories. Watch their volumes to give you the clues.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 12:59 pm

      What are suggesting NYUGrad, Fed sends a ‘cessation of easing’ message out the front door while playing ‘pimp my stockmarket’ through the backdoor?

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 1:04 pm

        It’s implying to me that the rally after the last gap down on that monday, is fake, and being orchestrated by hb&b by pumping liquidity into shadow firms with no earning power, such as C and AIG. I would consider the volumes into c, aig, fre, fnm, cit, the music that is powering this game of musical chairs. Once the music (volume in) stops, we will all realize there are no more chairs left for the remaining bag holders.

        C volume on a daily basis has been 1B+. that is not mom and pop. Not even short covering could cause a daily avg of that magnitude over the course of time.

        • Les(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 1:14 pm

          It is impressive, isn’t it.

  8. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 1:22 pm

    From Seeking Alpha top stories:

    “Citadel does an about-face on its plan to dump up to 120M shares of E*TRADE Financial (ETFC +4% premarket), saying it’s in the best interest of E*Trade’s shareholders. The move is likely to raise eyebrows given the nature of Citadel and its founder’s relationship with E*Trade.”

    short squeeze anyone?

  9. London(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    UK Bank holiday

    “As you may know, Pascal works in Belgium and is one of the CTA team. By the time you read this he has seen the open in Europe and UK and has already taken action”

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 1:46 pm

      Thanks — correction made. I knew London was closed; I was actually mostly thinking that by the time I get these messages from him, as I do constantly, he has already taken action.

  10. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 1:33 pm

    LOS ANGELES (AP) — The Walt Disney Co. says it is acquiring Marvel Entertainment Inc. for $4 billion in cash and stock, bringing characters like Iron Man and Spider-Man into the Disney family.

    Under the deal, Disney will acquire ownership of 5,000 Marvel characters.

    Disney said Monday that Marvel shareholders will receive $30 per share in cash plus 0.745 Disney shares for every Marvel share they own.

    It said the boards of Disney and Marvel have both approved the transaction, but it requires an antitrust review and the approval of Marvel shareholders.

  11. baz22(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 1:47 pm

    on smallish bio’s…. Don’t think, at this point in time, any rotational basis will be be useful…. Watching inside buying like a hawk… short interest is rising…. thinking there will be a 20 % breakdown on high-fly themes, and is the making this week…the charts are screaming it…

  12. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 1:51 pm

    short at $36.06

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 2:12 pm

      closed short at $36.1…no conviction on this trade.

  13. ez_money(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 1:52 pm

    If you plot the number of bank failures vs. time, it appears that we are no where near a recovery, I think I counted 24 failures in July and another 15+ in August. This is compared to <10 in March. It seems like it is accelerating.

  14. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:01 pm

    buy at $4.44

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 2:04 pm

      bought more, average at 4.45

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 2:04 pm

      bought more, average at 4.45

  15. Bev(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    I picked up your “Hint” on WAG in yesterday’s WIR. Shorted it at 34.21 on news of them to distribute $1 million in flu shots to the uninsured. So far so good!
    Thanks again for the heads up.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 3:07 pm


      This morning I received an email from a friend who I personally met via this community. He is a leading source of research info on Big Pharma products and he is funded by the health profession. He wants me to warn people to not take these swine flu shots, particularly children. Once I have the letter uploaded to the server and some research done, I ought to be able to publish something on this tomorrow.

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 3:16 pm

        THANK YOU! I was planning on taking one…

        • loannetter(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 4:37 pm

          Bev, and anyone considering a flu vaccine please read these two posts by Dr Mercola. His site is the number one health site and he does his reasearch. In a recorded phone interview a pharma company rep admitted they never get flu vaccines personally.

          • fjd10595(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 6:49 pm

            I would be very careful about this. “His site is the number one site.” What does that mean? what is the authority for that statement? I took a quick look at Mercola’s site and some of his assertions. I did not see links to any studies. I’m all for natural health, but that doesn’t mean that I completely discount medicine and vaccines. As I said in another post, I’m not a doctor, but I believe that vaccines have probably saved more lives than perhaps all other medical inventions.

  16. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:09 pm

    Not exactly what I expected – TBT rallying when the SPX is falling. I mean, I’m happy don’t get me wrong, but it is a little bit disturbing when the usual behaviors aren’t working. TBT falling during rallies, TBT rallying during market drops – its perplexing.

    At least it seemed like a good buy given the RSI, but who knew?

  17. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:15 pm

    Productivity, is it recession proof? Click on “Connectivity Intelligence”

  18. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    Infrastructure 2.0 new

    Submitted by TN_blogger (326 comments) on Mon, 08/31/2009 – 10:15 #43970
    Productivity, is it recession proof?

    Click on “Connectivity Intelligence”

  19. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    been gettin long etfc all morning yah!

  20. Freedom57(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:34 pm

    I finally got caught up on the weekend discourse and added a few thoughts to your commentary, but “caboosed” it on the Friday commentary, posting # 43989.

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 2:36 pm

      F57- Thanks for taking the time.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 5:44 pm

      Thank you for your NG post, F57! The most worrisome data there for me as a long NG player (so far) was the fact that the NG production now is still above that of last year. I am actually contemplating “flipping the pancake,” selling my HNU.TO and starting to short UNG.

      How would you explain the VERY steep contango between the spot price, October futures and the November ones? Doesn’t it mean that the spot price will most likely shoot up soon so as to reach $4 in November?

      • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 5:56 pm


        The spot price is the continuous price of the current month contract. I.E. right now the current month contract is October but once that contract rolls off (end of September) the November contract is the current month and that becomes the “spot price”.

        So essentially, yes the price will move up the day the contract rolls over, but only because the November contract price will become the “spot price” (it won’t shoot up, it will just be higher the next day).

        So, no, the October price will not necessarily have to rise for the spot price to rise.

      • Freedom57(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 6:32 pm

        David,re: “NG production now is still above that of last year”. Present production may be below last year at this time; the table only showed EIA data to the end of June. However, the severe drop that everyone expected has not occurred yet. The EIA have been relatively consistent in forecasting 2009 production roughly equivalent to 2008, and only a small drop in 2010.

        The problem is that even if production drops kick in, we probably are too late in the year for them to have much effect before the end of injection season. Production in some areas will likely have to be shut in, either voluntarily or involuntarily.

        re: “flipping the pancake,” — that’s the realization I came to. Over the summer I had been playing long and short over the trading range but I “went to the well” one too many times on the long side and incurred a loss on the last batch.

        re: “Doesn’t it mean that the spot price will most likely shoot up soon so as to reach $4 in November?” As storage fills it seems more likely to me that futures prices will drop more than spot will rise, and both may continue down to prices we would have thought impossible half a year ago. Spot dropped from $2.52 Friday to $2.41 today.

        I don’t see the catalyst to propel spot price up significantly in the near term. This week’s injections (and probably next week’s) should be significantly larger than last week’s, due to the cooler weather. If we get an injection of 80+ Bcf that could be psychologically disturbing to many compared to last week’s 54 Bcf.

        • David(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 6:57 pm

          “As storage fills it seems more likely to me that futures prices will drop more than spot will rise, and both may continue down to prices we would have thought impossible half a year ago.”

          OK, you convinced me. :) I just sold 1/2 of my HNU.TO at CAD$2.34. Will keep the other half for another day, just out of respect for the VERY oversold condition that can easily generate an oversold bounce.

  21. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    Both took hits the last few days, and are bouncing off their 20dma. Both +.60% in this tape. Interesting. The only short play remains a quick one so far.

  22. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:44 pm


    come back 2nd I’ll tell ya what to buy!

    Let’s put it this way….These little financials are actually really good stock buys right now. You need to watch em close and sell when you got a got profit, but they’re definitely working.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 3:06 pm

      shark- That would make a great name for an Indian casino. Enjoying my time away from the markets. Glad to see you’re ringing the register this morning.

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 3:11 pm

        Time away? It’s monday morning at 11 and you don’t seem away:)

        Which is a good thing. By wednesday you’re trading again.

        BTW isn’t it Vadym’s face on the front of the Kruggerrand?

        Sure looks like him:)

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 3:26 pm

          shark- What I said was I’m out of the markets. That’s still the plan, so I’ll refrain from making any comments about trading. I also said that I would weigh in with updates on investing outside the marekts.

          I don’t recall saying anything about leaving the community.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 3:30 pm
          • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 3:37 pm

            As you wish it to be brother.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 3:46 pm
          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 3:56 pm

            2nd….uh, the Emperor, stops trading and gets another gig….


            BTW, sorry we had to let you go from the dog training gig 2nd…

          • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 3:56 pm


            Do you have a thing for Star Wars?

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 4:04 pm

            You don’t remember the Sith Lord thing with 2nd?
            Of course I have a thing for Star Wars, that’s how I trade!

            Besides, you were right about 2nd being back, although early, and you were right about ETFC. The force is strong in you young fish.

          • Fox1(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 4:26 pm

            Obi-wan shops for a used ship. LOL


          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 4:34 pm

            I bought one of those and the hyperdrive was disconnected….

  23. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:49 pm

    falling off a freaking cliff…….

  24. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:51 pm

    FXP out @ 11.07 (from 10.28)
    Scalp attempt on UNG …in @10.649
    edit out @10.76

  25. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:51 pm

    That trade is working out so far. While they both were taken down today, buying gold and shorting oil in the proper proportion is definitely working out. And it feels safer than just doing a naked short oil, what with all the uncertainty about the buck.

    And if you look at the two charts, gold definitely seems to have more support than oil right now given the same moves in the USD.

  26. allengg(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:54 pm

    excellent, E*Trade was looking shaky too.

  27. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 2:57 pm

    Treasury rates rising…???

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 3:09 pm

      Rates are about the same around the world. Not really moving for the moment. The exceptions are the Japanese and Swiss rates, which are both very low.

      The Yen and Franc are probably the strongest currencies going right now.

  28. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 3:17 pm

    The below tells me the unwinding process is not close to being over. and the FDIC can no longer bear the burden alone. I am about to head to San diego soon. its ironic as the last time i was there is when we had the 777 pt drop last yr.
    “As the Wall Street Journal reports this morning, in what are called a “loss-share” agreements, buyers of failed banks are getting billions of dollars in government guarantees to snatch up the bank’s bad assets. To entice buyers, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is offering to cover around 80 percent of the losses associated with buying a bank. The result, the WSJ points out, is a massive subsidy to the private equity industry, and a huge risk to the American taxpayer.”

  29. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    No comment

  30. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 3:29 pm
    • Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 5:46 pm

      Kaimu –

      When you mention END OF EMPIRE, this interactive map would be THE reference:

      This sums up IT ALL WORKS UNTIL IT DOESN’T … No?

      Also, did you notice Matt Trivisonno’s Withholding Tax Chart has been suspended because some idiot blogger didn’t reference his work? Hope Trivisonno changes his mind and puts it back up.


      • kaimu(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 7:34 pm

        ALOHA !!

        Dr Strangelove posted-“Also, did you notice Matt Trivisonno’s Withholding Tax Chart has been suspended because some idiot blogger didn’t reference his work?”

        It looks like it was Carl Denninger … I ask and I post his site!

  31. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 3:32 pm

    ALOHA !!

    I use the C WORD to denote the CONFIDENCE that will be lost on our currency. But C WORD could mean “C” as in Citibank. When I first saw all this zombie bank rally my first thought was, “Well, look how long the dotcom craze lasted!” There is no difference to me!

  32. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 3:40 pm

    Another perfect mechanism for the US government to throw more taxpayer money down the crapper and endanger our health simultaneously. I’ve never had a flu shot, do they hurt? The last shot I remember having was about 25 years ago when I had a terrible case of strep throat, it was penicillin and I haven’t been sick since!

    What’s for the encore; Commodity Futures Modernization Act-II?

    Beautiful, I’ll take a free refill on my buttered popcorn please, tickets to this Grandest Show on Earth ain’t gonna be cheap!

    Was hoping to pick up some more NLY under $16, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening today…

    • fjd10595(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 6:44 pm

      I don’t know about that. I agree generally with you about government waste. But severe flu strains when they have occurred in the past killed tens of millions. And now you have greater “connectivity” between peoples all around the world, potentially spreading flu faster and farther.

      I’m not a doctor, but it seems to me that vaccines have probably reduced mortality more than many or most other medical inventions.

      • loannetter(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 9:40 pm

        Spoken like a believer! Just read what they put into the vaccines and how the actual statistics are manupulated.

        More people die from complications of illness and age from pneumonia for example than from the flu. The CDC confirms this. If you body’s immune system is compromised from having hyped up diseases injected DIRECLTY into your bloodstream this puts your system on alert mode. After which you have some real trouble fighting off diseases that enter through the normal, filtered body system via mucous membranes and digestive tract. The adjucants(squaline) that hype the activity of the ‘germ’ are linked with very serious auto immune illnesses, including Gulf War Syndrome.

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 9:56 pm

          Ok, I’ll just say one thing. I have a friend from Vietnam who had polio when he was a kid. His mom had very little money at the time, and so she was unable to vaccinate him. I suspect he would have a different opinion on vaccines and their horrible side effects.

          I think some vaccines are very, very helpful. I’m glad I didn’t get polio.

          • loannetter(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 10:08 pm

            Polio is pretty different from the flu.

            The pharma rush to market of swine flu vaccines is highly qustionable that their vaccines will even work. People need to make informed decisions given their situation. If you are really susceptible and need a vaccination, I understand you can ask for a non Mercury formula, given Mercury is one of the preservatives they use to make it cheap that you really don’t want in your body.

          • David(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 10:32 pm

            I would highly recommend for everyone to own and regularly glance through the book “The Vaccine Guide: Risks and Benefits for Children and Adults.” It describes the major diseases (how prevalent they are, how they spread, etc.) as well as:
            1. What is the current probability of contracting each disease and
            2. What is the probability of different outcomes of each disease)
            3. About the effectiveness of vaccines for these diseases
            4. About the side effects of each vaccine.

            This book was a great help for me in determining which vaccines should be beneficial for my children, which of them are irrelevant and were made by the industry just to make some extra money, and which ones are outright dangerous and should be avoided.

            My point is that the decision of whether or not to vaccinate oneself (and especially one’s children!) can only be made after evaluating all 4 items mentioned above on a case by case basis for each disease.

            Even with flu one has to trade off the chance of contracting it (if someone works from home, then the chance is much smaller than for someone who works with many people in a tight office space), the unpleasantness of having a flu in one’s own opinion, and the chance of complications from a flu vaccine (I know many people who got flu or developed other big health problems on the day they were given the vaccine).

            More generally, when making an important decision, the person should honestly try to compute and write down the mathematical expectation of each action (the probability of each outcome from that action multiplied by the “benefit” of that outcome, based on the current information the person has) and choose the action that has the highest expected value.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 10:51 pm

            Gee you guys, how are the pharma companies and doctors supposed to make a profit by just providing you with non-prescription remedies and fluids? How is your insurance company going to justify those premiums and their existence without a doctor visit and a vaccine? How is the FDA going to play a meaningful role to the pharma companies if they don’t convince you to become a mode of profit?
            You are no fun! Without you freaking out about the flu there’s no profit for anyone.

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 11:37 pm

            David said -I would highly recommend for everyone to own and regularly glance through the book “The Vaccine Guide: Risks and Benefits for Children and Adults.”

            Thanks for the recommendation, I checked out reviews on Amazon and they were almost uniformly positive. It sure seems like something good to have around the house, especially for parents.

            No kid likes to get shots. And if they get sick afterwards, boy does that suck.

          • fjd10595(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 1:29 am

            I am a believer in science. I’ve read a good number of anti science, junk opinions on blogs, not necessarily here. My point, to clarify it, is that vaccines in general have promoted the well being of society. I guess I can agree with the very general statement “more people die from complications of illness than flu.” Translated: most people die from illness. I guess that makes sense. That still doesn’t negate the point that large numbers of people , especially the frail and elderly, are probably protected by flu vaccine, and thus have their lives extended.

          • MtnGntx(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 3:50 am

            As Ive stated on this site before, the dogma of great benefit to the elderly from obtaining an annual flu vaccine is NOT verfiable in our scientific studies. The reason that the elderly, in particular, are not benefited by this practice is because they, by definition, are already biologically immunocompromised. That is to say, they do not have a fully functioning adaptive immune response. They lack the proliferating immune cells necessary to adapt and respond to the innoculant as would someone in their middle age or younger. In essence, the elderly are operating on the adaptive and immortalized response they generated to insults garnered in their youth and middle age. I am not some crackpot. This is not pseudoscience, but rather the cutting edge of immunological comprehension in this area. This represents teachings coming from one of the premier immunological research institutions here in the US. Playing with their grandchildren is a far, far greater predictor of whether or not the elderly will acquire the flu than is their innoculant status. This FACT is one of the fundamental reasons that the older generations are not considered primary targets for the current swine flu innoculant. Doctors continue to suggest the shot because that is what they have been trained to do…. and because there is a huge financial incentive to many within the system to continue pushing this pablum. These doctors need to be retrained… but bias and entrenched beliefs are very, very difficult to overcome.

            Furthermore, there is a great deal of research going on currently that tends to indicate chronic immune system challenge (as from years and years of adjuvant from a litany of innoculations including the annual flu shot) is at the root of the statistically aberrant increase in neurodegenerative disorders (Alzheimers, Parkinsons) currently found in Western countries.

            The swine flu innoculant is a huge scam, in my opinion… and I can trace very well documented research on which this opinion is based. The pharm companies involved are going to make a HUGE amount of money by sticking everyone and their mother with this stuff. The politicians will get their kickbacks and the public gets screwdoodled as usual.

            Furthermore, the adjuvant used in the current innoculant (squalene) has been directly implicated in Gulf war syndrome, as is a matter of public record in testimony given by researchers on capital hill concerning the issue. I am not kidding. It is a matter of congressional record. So, what did they do? They discontinued its use in the armed services and denied any compensation to those affected… after many, many years of denying that there was any problem in the first place!

            Now, squalene has come back in the swine flu shot. It is being used in concentrations many times greater than first seen in the gulf war. And the company that developed this adjuvant has been given complete immunity by the US government for any potential ill effects it may have on those receiving the innoculation….effects that may show up only years in the future… as patterned in the gulf war syndrome…sheesh.

            If all that were not enough, Baxter, the pharm rinleader of this circle-jerk, was caught shipping live, unattenuated, biosafety level 3 controlled virus to African countries in innoculant quantities sufficient enough to contaminate entire nation populations…. “oops, we made a mistake,”they said. Anyone who knows about biosafety level 3 and the complex, convuluted process of flu shot genesis will tell you that lot sizes of that magnitude with an agent of that level of hazard cannot be generated by mistake. Implausible. Far-fetched. Impossible. And if it did happen by accident (inconceivable, but lets go there), then every national and international health guideline set for working with and handling such agents was maliciously violated. Regardless of how it happened, everyone involved should be under investigation and these investigations should end with prosecution and jail. What happened to them? Nothing. The company was rewarded the primary contract for this swine flu gig.


            Wake up people. Blind obedience along with blanket dismissal of such things may be the death of us all. And that may be the agenda.

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 4:17 am

            Thanks MtnGtx,

            I was going to send out the Bat Signal on this one, but you beat it at the wire.

            Honestly, I have 3 very young kids and this is a big issue here, so thank you so much for your time.

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 4:24 am

            So my health care is through Kaiser Permanente – they’re a nonprofit HMO – they do the insurance, but they also have hospitals and doctors on the payroll. They seem to be particularly adept at not providing care when they feel it is not necessary.

            Given that they have to be responsible for whatever health mess follows from a bad vaccine, do you think they would be more honest about such matters than the “financially incentivized” folks would be?

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 4:56 am

            Dave- Yes, this is only one situation, but telling non the less. 25 years ago, my God Father had an accident and broke his neck. He was covered by Kaiser, and transferred to the CCU in Oakland. He was on full life support. After 12 hours the head nurse took my father aside and said if we had any hope of Bobby surviving, we had to get him out of this hospital immediately.

            We had him flown to UCSF 2 hours latter. Needless to say he has survived and is still alive today. Perfect, no. But he has been able to see his son married and now has 2 grand kids.

  33. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 4:06 pm

    to form in infrastructure.

    “Altucher isn’t concerned. “The U.S. debt is not really that bad relative to other industrial countries.” In fact, borrowing money for massive government works projects is “prudent financial management,” Altucher says. “Better to borrow now when interest rates are cheap.”

    **”It might end badly,”** in the long run, he admits. But in the meantime, “we’re on the right side of” the next bubble, so you might as well buy, he says, comparing infrastructure stocks today to circa January 1999.”

  34. michael3442(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 4:46 pm

    I’m trying to wrap my head around the idea that it might be time to just buy and hold a little FAZ while the markets go into a long swoon. I understand there is the phenomenon of asset decay that takes place if this is held during an oscillating market. However, if one believes the markets (in this case the Russel 1000 Financial Svcs. mkt.) are going into a long term decline, how would FAZ fare? Would this decay phenomenon still be present or would it disappear? Has anyone here looked into this? Looking forward to serious viewpoints. Thanks.


    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 5:14 pm

      FAZ – My belief is this instrument should not be held more than a few days due to the decay, I would suggest SH or something along those lines.

      Unless you’re able to interpret charts extremely well and trade in and out, anything leveraged is likely to eat you up IMO.

  35. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 4:47 pm
    • Les(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 5:14 pm

      Timely reminder, thanks.

      VIX has been basing for a while now, and has perforated its trend line. market to follow?

      Difficult to suggest VIX continuing any sort of descent after this period of consolidation, without some sort of reciprocation from the markets.

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 5:21 pm

        Good chart on S&P Les. I am looking at the bottom ascending trendline as a guide. will tip toe into bear positions until the S&P break below that trendline (985 ish) and stays there for 2 consecutive days, then go in heavier into bear positions.

        Until then, hb&b can ramp their printing press at will and rally this sucker back up to the megaphone rising resistance trendline as well (1,050 ish).

  36. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 5:10 pm

    not a lot. but initiating bearish positions today into the close, as long as we can close near or below 1012-1013 on S&P. If ppt comes in with last minute save then i will steer clear.

  37. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 5:22 pm
    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 5:29 pm

      Re Japan and new DPJ, i have a question.

      Wont their plans to boost economic activity by infusing Yen, also raise USD, thus causing down pressure on markets, gold etc?

      their economy has been asleep for a long time. Honest question as i would like to hear people’s thoughts on how Japan new ruling party may effect global currencies and equities.

    • Milesquare(118083 comments)-
      September 1, 2009 at 1:07 am


      You may like these charts

      … It was April 2003 and investors were tired of the old Bear market and wondering when it would end.

      The number of New Daily Highs on the New York Stock Exchange spend almost a full year under the 100 per day level … in fact, it spend about 6 months with the number of New Daily Highs below 50 per day.

      And then it happened … The Number of New Daily Highs went from below 50, to above 50, and then to above 100. From 100 it just kept climbing to 200, to 300, to 400 and higher. After the 100+ level, the new Bull Market was launched as seen in today’s first chart below.

      This is one of the charts that we post every day on our paid subscriber site. For this chart, we say that: A minimum of 100 is a very important level in a rally. 150 is what we want to see … and we want to see the trend going up, not down.

      What does the current chart look like? See the next chart for the answer ..

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        September 1, 2009 at 7:37 am

        Milesquare, thanks for that. You’ve helped me understand the bottom indicator in the attached chart.

        From your URL:

        “From last October to this past June, the New York Stock Exchange New Highs have been doggedly stuck below 50.

        And then … we moved up above 50 in July, and then above 100, and then above 150. But then we stopped, and started trending down … below 100. Yesterday, we were at 61, still above 50 but below 100. The New Highs picture doesn’t scream “Bull Market” like many are articulating. There is more work to do before we hit the desired levels.

        For now, we are still moving down from the 159 peak level we reached on August 3rd. and that creates a “caution condition”. We need to reverse the current down trend … and, we need to see the New Highs move back up above the 100 level.”

        So that’s what $NYHL is – cool.

  38. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 5:27 pm
  39. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 5:36 pm

    Want to do the bet again? I say we close green. Not green shoots green but actual green. I believe people will respond favorably to the ISM report tomorrow which I wouldn’t be surprised comes in around 51 and I think people bid up the market in anticipation.

    What say you?

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 7:08 pm

      TOF- Just got back to the office. Let me scan a bit, but I see quickly WFC/JPM are holding up and TBT getting hit after a big move up AM.

      • MarkW(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 7:21 pm

        TOF- I’m going to defer to the bond market today. So let’s say S&P -6 at the close.

  40. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 5:50 pm

    again today. Light volume across the board on many popular stocks. but all 4 of these are keeping up with Usain Bolt the Olympian gold medalist.

  41. Student(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 5:51 pm

    Hi Bill: in your weekly review, you touched on the Boeing fiasco regarding the Dreamliner. I do agree that it’s getting harder to swallow the constant backtracking on the promise dates. I am especially annoyed with the CEO who seems to be flying below the radar while his co-pilots fight off the rockets from the media. McNerney really hasn’t performed in my judgment, and I am concerned that Boeing’s stock is going to do a crash landing around 39.00 – perhaps then it may justify purchase. Makes me wonder if some insiders took advantage of the ‘good news’ and unloaded some of their shares.

  42. Bev(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 6:03 pm

    I take it you are still holding SRS. Saw this today.

    “Commercial Real Estate Lurks as Next Potential Mortgage Crisis”

    • David(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 7:37 pm

      Bev, thanks for the article about SRS today. But let me ask you this: haven’t we been seeing such articles for the past year? Similarly, the article about US being “awash” in NG is also just describing what has been happening over the past few months.

      As Vadym pointed out last week, the information that has been around for more than a day cannot really be used for timing any trades.

      As I see it now, the arguments about the commercial RE being the “next shoe to drop” should only be used to guide our thinking towards *waiting* for the TA signals to indicate that the 6-month uptrend in IYR has finally finished. Only when that happens, then one can start scaling into SRS. The more adventurous ones can buy SRS at “preliminary” TA signals, but then they should also use tight stop orders just like 2nd_ave did for the last two months.

      • Bev(118083 comments)-
        September 1, 2009 at 12:00 am

        David, I agree the article should not be used as a signal to begin shorting commercial RE [SRS]. For me it was just a reminder that the problem has not gone away and confirms what I have heard from my friends throughout the country of the vacant office buildings and shopping plazas they are seeing more and more of these days. But I must admit I do not understand the reasoning for the rise of IYR these past several months when it is widely known there is a serious problem in this sector.

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          September 1, 2009 at 12:12 pm

          Bev, David,

          Yes, thanks for the link, Bev.

          I am holding a very small position in SRS. Since I am not primarily a day trader, my “timing” is way out there. I had planned to go to next march or better yet, to June with put options on RWX, but so far it looks like they are only available out to the end of this year. I think this is likely too soon. I thought the internet bubble would pop far sooner and have worried about the job losses since pre-NAFTA. (I chalk it up to the curse of a vivd imagination :-)

          I ran into a friend a month ago who is a real estate agent here in northern Illinois where the market is dismal. He had just come back from national convention and said the speakers were all talking about the really bad outlook for commercial just over the horizon.

          A friend on the Isle of Wight, who has been rehabbing properties for over a decade, reports similar conditions to what we have here.

  43. lessmore(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 6:18 pm
  44. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 6:48 pm
  45. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 6:50 pm

    I’ve been watching this for a while now. It is the tell tale sign to me of the blue chips. It has been bid up pretty steadily over the past few weeks. I think there is a changing tide and people are moving into the blue chips. That is where the next leg up in this market will come from in my opinion. What are the blue chips we should be looking at if this is the case?

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 7:17 pm

      TOF – I think GD could run from here…

      • MarkW(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 7:22 pm

        CP- I was looking at this one this weekend. What would be your entry point?

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 9:38 pm

          Mark – GD – I think today’s low would have been a good entry point, but I’d like to see if tomorrow there’s a better price(I doubt it, but I’m being cautious). This will be a longer term hold, not a day trade. I like HBAN as well, TOF’s pick.

  46. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 6:57 pm
    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 7:13 pm

      Anyone here going to be bad mouthing Michael Moore now? LOL!

      I’m taking my family and all my friends to see it!

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 7:20 pm

        “Anyone here going to be bad mouthing Michael Moore now?”

        Only if you promise to go short!

        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 7:25 pm

          I’ll promise to go short if you give me my share of the trillions stolen from us by these crooks. Deal?

    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 7:29 pm

      ALOHA !!

      CAPITALISM has nothing to do with it … Try “Crony Socialism”! How many have these same insolvent socialist banks been bailed out in my lifetime? Then there’s the other socialist icons of America like Chrysler, Amtrak, GM … The Fortune 500 list is full of companies that survive on US government or State or County or City contracts. Capitalism is what happens when government is absent. You cannot have Socialism and Capitalism all at the same time!

      Wow … a few entertaining gags with money bags! How many milliseconds did it take to dream that up? Or did he see that at the DC IMPROV in 1981?

      Is that the meat? An interview with Elizabeth Warren! Does he even knock at the US FED’s door? Take the money bag over there doofuss!

      Typical Hollywood BS … Oblivious to the “real world”!

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 7:33 pm

        I am just hoping it raises awareness to everyone who remains in this “dont take away my job/401k/health/credit cards” trance in America.

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 7:47 pm

        I don’t think so Kaimu.
        It looks like he agrees with you, maybe you should inform him if you doubt it.
        Here’s a headline from his web page.
        ‘August 25th, 2009
        Obama Bests George; 2009 deadliest year for foreign troops in Afghanistan”

        You can twitter him, or write to him on Facebook, or any of a number of ways to tell him what you think, but it looks like he’s a straight shooter.

        • kaimu(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 9:34 pm

          ALOHA !!

          Craig … According to the movie trailer the movie is entitled: “Capitalism-A Love Story”!

          Sorry but in a capitalist system there would be no bailouts! No bailouts of banks, car makers, mortgage companies, or unemployed people.

          Name one business where the US government is not involved either directly or indirectly in the day-to-day operation or generation of revenues. The US government regulates and legislates everything in America.

          Now if Moore changed the name of his film to “Crony Socialism-A Love Story” then I could get behind it. Having seen the trailer all he is going to do is repeat the same stuff we have seen on TV over the past year and offer a humorous public forum for further disgust. Is there anyone alive in America who does not yet know AIG is a fraud?

          Now when he shows up at the Oval Office and does a citizens arrest of Obama, Summers and Geithner then wake me up! When he flies to Dallas and stages a hunger strike in order for Bush to admit his crimes then wake me up! When he knocks on the FED door and wants to arrest Bernanke wake me up! When he goes over to Greenspan’s home with his bullhorn and demands he give back the Presidential Medal Of Honor that Bush gave him … wake me up!!HA!! Does he even visit Goldman Sachs office? Probably not, since that’s where he has all his money and the camera man is a former Goldman alumni!

          I understand that the American IQ and the attention span of Americans is so low that Michael Moore is the only director who can get through, but it still does not speak to the “real truth”. Both he and Oprah have a once in a lifetime opportunity to speak to the “real truth”, but I have yet to see them stand up against the machine that made them wealthy. Same goes for Buffet!

          Nobody wants a communist system but what we have is one step above, unless you actually believe you are being fairly represented in Washington DC … I want a better system than we have and that includes a monetary system that isn’t owned by pirates!

          I guarantee you Moore’s movie will dance all around the truth!

          ES QUE LO ES …

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 9:49 pm

            The fact is, he’s doing SOMETHING.

            You and I can agree it isn’t the whole story, but how many of our closest friends will sit still long enough to hear all of it? Answer….NONE.
            THAT is the problem, not Michael Moore.
            THAT is what makes this whole fraud possible.
            The fact that the movie *trailer* isn’t all inclusive doesn’t speak to the movie, none of us has seen it!
            Maybe you can become a movie critic and give us all the details! HA!

            My wife LOVES me but she glazes over when I start to explain even the smallest part of the scam. I showed her the faxes I sent to my Rep and Senators the other day supporting Ron Paul’s audit and disassembly of the Fed and she immediately started to glaze over and asked if I actually sent them! OF COURSE I DID!!! People are AFRAID to defend themselves, it’s amazing but true. After what they saw before and during Iraq they are afraid of their own government.

            I would DO SOMETHING more, as I’m sure GRYM would too, but we would be thrown in the slammer for manslaughter at the very least….we’re gonna need a lot more people….

            You DID see the guy in the movie with the rifle saying something about regular folks doing something…..right? So I think he is doing what he can.

            YOU don’t know if he has anything at GS or his cameraman! But it’s a nice touch! LOL!
            We’re going to have to see the movie if we want to know if he goes to Goldman Sachs, but AIG ***is*** GS after Paulson, isn’t it? I mean, WE are now GM, Chrysler, GS, BAC, C and AIG, right? Where do you show up for OUR money?
            ALL OF THE ABOVE!!!

            You know, maybe better than anyone, that the REAL TRUTH takes a long time to even get up in the AM, while the lies and BS make it around the world in seconds. The REAL TRUTH may never be known by anyone except a few.
            You have to start somewhere, give the guy some credit, he’s starting where most people will get it. The rest is up to us.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 9:50 pm

            kaimu – “The US government regulates and legislates everything in America.”

            Well, there are a few things government doesn’t regulate but should, CDS’ is one I’m thinking of….

            The old pre-depression bucket shops were reborn with a Wall Street lobbyists victory when the Commodities Futures Modernization Act was enacted circa 2000. The Lobbyists went on to reward the congressmen who supported the bill.

          • loannetter(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 9:58 pm

            I for one am looking forward to Mr. Moore’s new movie to see how far he takes the ‘love’! I recall he was interviewed in a sleeper docmentary called “The Corporation” about how he got away with his approach to films. He said something like (paraphrasing): “The film companies may not agree with my approach, but my movies make them a lot of money and I just drive my truck right through their huge hole of greed”. Gotta love that!

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 10:37 pm

            Right on! You put it far better and I couldn’t agree more.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 7:49 pm

      Isn’t it a little strange that Michael Moore makes big bucks while he knocks capitalism?

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 8:02 pm

        How do we know? The film hasn’t opened yet. Right now it’s a budget with unmet expectations and expenses. And when did it become bad to make money in America?
        If you made a film, would you be entitled to make money?
        Or do people you think you disagree with not have that right?

        In short, no it’s not strange. This is America where people make money doing things like advertising, illustration, film making, that sort of thing.

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 8:44 pm
        • Craig(118083 comments)-
          August 31, 2009 at 9:07 pm

          Everyone in America is an opportunist. That’s what makes it all work.
          Right, he’s a movie maker, not a journalist. Check that spelling.

          I would be surprised if you saw even one of his movies.

          Right, we don’t have capitalism, we have corruption and greed, which I believe is his point. I think the movie is about the con.

          Right, like the difference between making movies and journalism.

          The next two sentences are your opinion, but without substance. They don’t give anyone credit for having nuanced positions or sufficiently describe how complex our problems are. For instance in some cases I’m liberal AND I own a case of guns and ammo. There are also conservatives (fiscal conservatives) who don’t give a flip about books. So your statements are too simplistic. I get your idea, but unfortunately it’s more complicated. It seems like BOTH want your money and your civil rights. I’d be surprised if you disagree with that.

          True. Real money would be based on something rare, like gold, silver, etc. and not subject to manipulation and the whims of crooked central bankers, so we don’t have true capitalism and you and I agree with M. Moore. Bummer.
          For the most part that’s what the movie is about.

          How financially successful would any of us be in a communist society?
          This is not unique to Mr. Moore. For instance, you wouldn’t have been in advertising in a communist society. In context a meaningless statement.

          Dude, you make his ranting look miserly. You rant endlessly everyday, many times objectively and many times subjectively. Maybe you should make a movie.
          The only difference between you and Michael Moore is he does something about it.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 10:35 pm
          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 11:33 pm

            LOL! You crack me up! Moore couldn’t possibly make a bigger mockery of capitalism than our government, Fed, bankers and wall street already have. And how about citizens that don’t take the time to learn about even the smallest bit of information? They aren’t making a mockery? Puleeese! His little movie barely scratches the surface compared to the greed of these people and the feebleness and laziness of the majority of citizens.

            And we don’t have crony socialism, we have crony capitalism. Or are they both the same? Hmmmm. Now there’s a debate! What’s that joke about capitalism and communism? One is the exploitation of man by his fellow man and the other is the opposite? HA!

            I don’t think anyone complaining in a blog daily really can say they are doing anything more constructive than Michael Moore or differentiating anything, so it’s just more of the pot calling the kettle black. It’s those doing nothing that let evil, and the destruction continue. If any of us really cared we’d be in the streets, right?

            Are you kidding? Ignore you and and miss my daily laughs from the whining geezer? Not a chance! It’s like my own subscription to skid road digest, and it’s free! I’d have to find my own alcoholic to repeat stories over and over and I’d have to buy the drinks. Nope, the price is right. Tell us the one about Obama again grandpa! Please?

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 11:47 pm

            Craig that last comment was over the top. Grandpa? Geezer? Alcoholic? Skid row?

            As the guy always yelling at people for racism (or some other form of name-calling) you really seem to be behaving hypocritically. I’m going to call you on what you just did to Grym. It’s just not nice, not appropriate, and I don’t appreciate it. Not to mention it’s completely content free.

            Please stop.

          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            August 31, 2009 at 11:57 pm

            Hear, hear.

            Craig, I like reading both yours and Grym’s posts, but especially Grym’s. What the heck brought that last tirade on? Chill out and show some respect.


          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 12:00 am

            Craig- I agree with Dave and Mac. Debating issues is fine- that’s what communities do. But you need to delete the last paragraph.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 1:42 am

            Alright, it was meant to be edgy for which I apologize if it insulted you, but I can’t delete it now that someone commented on it which removes the ability to edit. Maybe Korvus or Bill can.

            I apologize if I insulted all your sensibilities, but respect is mutual and earned and I’m not apologizing to him.

            You have to admit, at least I didn’t tell him to “God damned shove it” like he did to me. I didn’t see anyone leaping up in horror at that. That didn’t do much to earn my respect for him and spoke instead to his disrespect.
            When I hear an apology for that, I’ll reconsider.

            The sad thing is, for the most part, I agree with him, which I don’t consider far left leaning, but he insists on being antagonistic toward me and unfortunately, disrespect begets disrespect. I didn’t start it.
            If he doesn’t like my comments, he can follow his own advice.
            In the future I will refrain from commenting or posting anything aside from financial information as my comment on Michael Moore’s movie for some reason seemed to be a problem for him. I should have known.

          • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 1:47 am

            Guys, it’s just a MOVIE! I did not mean to cause commotion by posting a trailer about a documentary.

            In fact the 1st I heard of this movie was months ago when Bill posted a link to it in the daily commentary section.

            again, please respect each other. the trailer and movie are just entertainment.

          • Illini(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 2:42 am


            “again, please respect each other. the trailer and movie are just entertainment.”

            I am confident that quite a few eyes will be opened. I see myself as being entertained plus having at least a couple of aha moments.

          • Bev(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 12:03 am

            Craig I know you lean to the far left but I never expect that last paragraph from you of all people.

          • Illini(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 1:56 am


            Craig “far left” leaning? Pulease. I think he is very reasonable mostly and a counterweight against many on this board. So Grym draws him out. So what. At least he has a response, perhaps not always kind. He, like Grym, speaks his mind. I also note that he did not make any direct accusations against him. Just some fun innuendo in the last paragraph. I too am a grandpa and I will tell my grandchildren what I saw as truth, in the fullness of time.

          • bobbyo(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 2:44 am

            This is the type of dialog that Michael Moore wants. The film is already a success. Love him or hate him he elicits an emotional response. He draws a definitive line and everyone takes a side. No fence sitting allowed. Really should he be condemned for bringing attention to this topic no matter how watered down it is done. Should the ignorant apathetic American public pay less attention? Lets face it Moore will be ignored anyway by the public at large. The public is more emotional for an American Idol elimination. “That Simon is so mean.”

          • Illini(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 3:13 am

            “Lets face it Moore will be ignored anyway by the public at large.”

            Your comment would leave us hopeless in the long run. Have you never heard of the network? The age of connectednest? The internet? All a source of hope. As is Bill Black on PBS and You Tube as posted earlier:


          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 11:55 am
          • Luggie(118083 comments)-
            September 1, 2009 at 2:53 am

            Grym – Here is one person that would not ignore your comments. The geographic locations of us all seem to often shape our views and acceptance of our current situation. May we all share in harmony and maintain tolerance with one another, as Bill wishes. Happy Trading All

  47. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 7:08 pm

    Looking at the Swedish 10-year interest rate this morning, its the only bond market down a couple of points in Europe. This may mean that interest rates are going to be drawn into the negative as a matter of course for just about all bond markets with a view to keep long rates from budging.

  48. David(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 7:12 pm

    I also just sold some October $11 naked calls on UNG for $0.75. Well, they are not really “naked” since I still have some HNU.TO left. So this is like a “paired trade” motivated by the currently large UNG premium.

  49. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 7:15 pm

    Nice volume and price action today. No news on my end. Might be time for some free drinks.

  50. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 7:25 pm
  51. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 7:38 pm

    Hope everyone near the fires are ok.

  52. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 7:40 pm

    So watching various things today I notice that a number of up-moving day trading formations failed, where just last week they would have succeeded. I’m getting the sense the momentum is shifting.

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 7:46 pm

      And, of course, GS just went green.

  53. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 7:52 pm

    Vad, would a short squeeze on one bio trigger similar rallies on other bios? Just curious.

    “In today’s trading, the trend toward call options continues. NVAX’s call volume has climbed to four times the norm, while put volume stands at just two times the daily average. The stock’s September 6 call is the most active, with 1,348 contracts crossing the tape on open interest of 1,944. About 52% of the volume here has traded at the ask price, which indicates buying activity.”

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 8:13 pm

      Well, two things… first, NVAX is not simply one of bios. Its move is based on swine flu vaccine, so let’s talk about other names in that sector, not all bios.

      Second, NVAX is not a leader among these names today – SVA is. Meaning, you can’t at this point translate NVAX movement into sympathy plays – they develop as “following the leader”.

      On a side note… I can’t believe the sheer number of sites you follow, LOL

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        September 1, 2009 at 9:30 am

        RE:> On a side note… I can’t believe the sheer number of sites you follow, LOL

        YEH, LAUGH IT UP VAD.!!!!


        I’m a one trick pony/trader as IB threatens to block my account, so I’ve plenty of time to look around the net while the day drags out.

        OK, SVA was tagged “it” today? It was brought to my attention pre-market. Hmm, John Lee was eyeing SVA before the opening. OK found it – press releases were held on Sunday for this stock. Can’t say we weren’t pre-warned.

        yeh Vad I remember your trading log call on one particular swine flu stock which drew sympathy rallies in other stocks. I was wondering if a short squeeze could induce the same sympathy rally in similar stocks.

        No, when talking bios I meant the usual suspects – bcrx…

        Wow, what other flu stocks are there besides NVAX, SVA and BCRX? ARIA, ARNA, DNDN – they’re all related to something else.

        Very tempted to stiff the taxman this christmas in order to sign up to the school of trading according to Vad, when you get back from the Bahamas. We shall see.

  54. Les(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 7:56 pm

    “I’d also note that the rally by the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from 900 to 1,000 over the past three weeks has been accompanied by a flat VIX, due in part to the widespread conviction that volatility is “due” for a rise. Should this perception begin to crumble in the wake of a takeout of 1,000 on the SPX, the resulting unwinding of bullish VIX positions could carry the VIX sharply lower and, by implication, create further upside impetus for the market.”

    Dated the 5th so convictions of volatility have held for several weeks.

  55. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 8:01 pm

    From watching HBAN I’m getting the sense that it is ready to make a move higher pretty soon.

    Own shares.

    • allengg(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 8:24 pm

      HBAN to go higher.

      Why ? see that they will “present” at Sept 16th meeting , see:
      Huntington Bancshares To Present at the Barclays Capital Global Financial Services Conference

      Makes sense, but usually Barclays IShares do ETF’s
      Any more comment ?

      • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
        August 31, 2009 at 8:29 pm

        I believe they are capitalized well enough to make it through this downturn and quite frankly I’m beginning to believe that this rebound in the economy will be stronger than everyone thinks.

  56. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 8:11 pm

    but watch technicals. i wont be surprised with a rally tomorrow to flush out more shorts. noticed bullish engulfing pattern on today’s candlestick on the daily chart of the $VIX.

    Noticed Yen sold off into the close to save what they could on the markets for maybe end of month statements?

    it will be interesting to see if trading in Asia now leads where the u.s trades the next day. for as long as i can remember, Asia usually reacted the day after to U.S markets. maybe this is changing?

  57. Zed II(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 8:14 pm

    And Barrichello is in contention for the championship! Force India a real challenge, Brawn GP as manufacture Champ, a three…possibly 5 way drivers’ run off…
    Can you imagine the chaos at the betting windows?

    Monza is next.

    Ciao, Z.

  58. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 8:30 pm

    Moved 10% more of my cash in my long term account into SPY at the close. I now have 55% cash, down from 75% two weeks ago.

  59. David(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 9:23 pm

    I focused on the NG today too much and forgot to mention that I bought some TZA today at $14.60 (after seeing the futures going down last night, I increased the limit portion of my buy stop limit order to $14.60). This is not a big deal, since TZA is trading at $14.63 after hours right now. I placed a sell stop limit order for these shares with a stop at $14.1 and limit at $14. Instead of just scaling into a 3X ultra-short (which work well only during a clear downtrend), I decided that I will use stops to get me out of it quickly if the strong downtrend does not materialize right away. That’s what 2nd_ave has been doing, and since he is taking a break from trading now, I figured I’ll try to keep his trading style alive. :)

  60. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 9:49 pm

    Tomorrow Econoday tells us we have:

    Motor Vehicle Sales – before market open
    ICSC (Chain store sales) 745 AM
    IFM Manufacturing index 1000 AM
    Construction Spending 1000 AM
    Pending Home Sales 1000 AM

    Its a day of retailing and homebuilding tomorrow, I think.
    Increased consumption, or prudence and savings?

    The last ICSC report surprised to the downside, but the market didn’t seem to notice.

    Fortune favors the prepared mind.

  61. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 10:31 pm

    Too late to take it back, Mr. Dudley.

  62. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 10:36 pm

    “Aug 18, 2009
    Marijuana growers started California wildfires”

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 11:06 pm

      LOL! How many fires? How much chemicals, feces etc?

      Does anyone know how many fires, chemicals, fertilizers and feces timber companies are responsible for for decades? Where does everyone think a logger craps? Hint, the same place bears and the Pope crap!!! In the woods!!! LOL!

      And chemicals? Fertilizers and herbicides have been used for decades in National forests and outof control slash burning has burned millions of acres of marketable timber.
      Don’t get me wrong, I’m not approving of using forest service lands for cultivation of pot, but if we are going to call a spade a spade, then let’s get real. Speaking as someone that lives in a timber community with sustained yield agreement logging over the vast majority of the acreage and many, many logger friends. We actually used to cloud over Seattle with slash burn smoke.

      Apparently this kind of environmental degradation is only good if it’s done for Weyerhauser.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      August 31, 2009 at 11:42 pm

      Another reason to legalize pot. I’d rather have stoned-but-otherwise-relatively responsible-citizens wandering our national forests. We don’t need stoned traffickers starting fires while lighting up/crapping in our forests and then panicking. Pot smokers would probably also appreciate fewer organisms/traces of feces/who-knows-what in product grown, harvested, and transported by workers with no access to bathrooms and not known to practice handwashing even under the best of circumstances.

  63. joe_the_plumber(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 10:56 pm

    Isn’t this supposed to be great news for equities ?

  64. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 11:26 pm

    Apologies if this has been posted and discussed earlier.

    Some of you will remember back on April 3, 2009, Bill Moyers interviewed William Black, a senior bank regulator in the 1980’s who gave the S&L crooks a nice “slap up side of the head”, talking about today’s crisis.

    I found a forum discussion with Black at UCLA this morning and thought some of you might be interested. I found it interesting to hear how he is actively working with Congressmen to get a Pecora-type investigation of this crisis off the ground and working towards indictments of the many fraudsters involved. On a more academic note, he’s absolutely merciless in his criticism of Geithner, Summers, and Greenspan, but not so much of Bernanke.

    Anyway, here it is:

    (There’s a lot of overlap in the two videos and the Q&A session at the end of the latter one is terribly weak, IMHO)

  65. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    August 31, 2009 at 11:34 pm

    ANALYSIS-Once-stable Sweden leads Norway in forex volatility
    08.28.09, 02:51 PM EDT
    MARKETS-FOREX/OPTIONS (ANALYSIS):ANALYSIS-Once-stable Sweden leads Norway in forex volatility

    By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Signals from the currency options market are exposing concerns about the outlook for the Swedish crown, one of the latest symbols of risk appetite, moving in lock step with the rise in global equities.

    The Swedish crown’s implied volatility, or “vol,” a measure of how much investors expect a currency to move in either direction over a specific period and seen as a barometer of risk, has stayed elevated this year even as economies worldwide have started to improve.

    Analysts said Sweden’s prospects remain uncertain amid its banks huge exposure to the crisis-hit Baltics region, particularly Latvia, which may face more problems from its banks in the future. ].


    Euro decline against Kronor since July:

    (note: I only quote this because the UK central bank is probably going to negative interest rates soon. The Icelandic Krona has not stopped devaluing against the Euro since its banking crisis hit. The Russian banking sector is in a very similar mess.)

  66. Bev(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 12:07 am

    You once lived in the “Steel City”.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      September 1, 2009 at 12:24 am

      Thanks, Bev. In terms of historical significance and sheer geographical beauty, Pittsburgh ranks above the Bay Area. It’s too bad I never felt at home there (despite having resided in three vastly different neighborhoods at three separate times in my life).

  67. pauldkk(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 12:25 am

    whats that old saying about a broken clock?

  68. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 12:31 am

    I don’ think music is only for the weekend :) :)

    (hot, hot hot!) “Help Me make it through the Night”; Kristofferson:

    (amazingly hot for a sixty-year old! 70?) “Where have all the Flowers Gone?”; Marlene Dietrich:

    Could she really be 70 in this interview?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      September 1, 2009 at 12:45 am

      Mac- Kris I-let-Rita-get-away-because-I-couldn’t-stop-fooling-around-with-Sarah-Miles-during-filming-of-Sailor-Who-Fell-From-Grace-With-the-Sea Kristofferson?

  69. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 1:13 am

    We all know they got a bit ahead of themselves… (-7% today)

    I’d look for some support to show up in the 2500 range (view in ANY time frame):

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      September 1, 2009 at 1:21 am

      Yesterday’s close on Shanghai Composite was 2667.74. I dont think its open yet. its 9:20am as of my post in Shanghai China. Japan is open, down 25 pts so far.

      correct me if i am wrong.

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        September 1, 2009 at 1:24 am

        Sorry. By today, I meant last night. Geesh :( Doubt it’ll be down that much again tonight.

  70. Ventilation Blues(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 1:35 am

    Les? .. I feel sick. I feel I should cut and paste one of Shark-Attacks quotes when he misses a deal. Ive been hovering over MVL since we chatted about it, was waiting for it to dip and then DIS get involved. Ai Ya … I have no doubt that MVL is awsome intellectual property but Disney has a bad track record with respecting, nurturing and looking after intellectual property. +25% up. Did you get onboard?
    SQNM was on the watchlist also.

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      September 1, 2009 at 9:55 am

      Hi VB, long time no see.

      No my trading style is moving rapidly into the realm of daytrading as I have zero confidence in the medium term fundamentals of this market and the economy. The only way I’m going to recover my losses, let alone make anything in this dog eat dog market is to take profits short and sharp.

      Disney is a behemoth, but if they can make headways into new markets and leave their subsidiaries alone to continue their good work (DIS owns Pixar, doesn’t it) then I think it has a future.

      But that future begins following global deleveraging of the consumer.

  71. nemo(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 1:36 am
    • Telestar3d(118083 comments)-
      September 1, 2009 at 3:57 am

      Although not holding my breathe, I think individual accounts (retirement and non-retirement accounts)should be exempt. However, it will be a cold day in hell before that happens.

      If they really do decide to tax individuals in this way, I’m going to quit trading period.

      P.S. The latest bill going through Congress is HR 1207-6, titled “Every Breathe You Take.” Apparently, they have decided to tax our exhalations based on age. The new line would be added in on this years 1040 form. The bill notes that you will get an exemption upon the year of your death.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        September 1, 2009 at 4:00 am

        Hehe you know, what will probably come out of this is, “market makers” like Goldman will be exempt, while us retail guys, we’ll have to pay.

        That’s how it was with short selling, remember?

  72. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 4:37 am

    Was doing some web research in preparation for getting some hardwood floors installed and Lumber Liquidators came up on the google search along with their ticker, LL. Pretty amazing looking stock chart, especially when you consider the stock debuted in 11/2007. Seems like a very Buffetish play…

  73. Les(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 8:05 am

    the drug they’re producing appears to fail the effectiveness test of the FDA. The repeat stage 3 release this month is to ensure safety. This has already been established and should show solid results 2nd time around. The FDA can refuse the drug based on effectiveness – although my understanding is that this drug will become part of a cocktail (trash body with food followed by drugs) to increase effectiveness – but no decision will be forthcoming until 2010.

    fwiw, dyodd etc etc.

  74. Les(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 8:22 am

    My circle of reading has just grown wider – ha!

  75. Les(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 10:15 am

    this one might be fun to play


  76. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    September 1, 2009 at 10:45 am

    Toby Crabel’s observation about price explosions out of the NR7 space deserves at least passing observation (price often expands out of narrow range bars)…and there are a lot of ’em today. First day of the month, too. Rabbit, rabbit.

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