Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Friday, Jun 12, 2009

[7:45am ET] Will we ever get to the bottom of the controversy that Ken Lewis stirred up with respect to behind-the-scenes management of the private sector by monetary authorities such as the US Federal Reserve Bank and the US Treasury Department?

Yesterday, there was some tough grilling of the Bank of America CEO, but at the end of the day all the public received in terms of advancement of our rights is a modicum of additional transparency. We can now say that some congressional representatives are prepared to subpoena emails between the Fed and the parties we are told they are supposed to be regulating.…

Is that enough? Are we ever going to get to the bottom of the real issues, the inherent conflicts of interest that go on when a private sector organization like the Fed is empowered as an instrument of public policy, or when the public

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  1. Les(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    as our cable was severed by the construction crew next door. Did me some good ’cause after that OGRE on Wednesday which burnt me something I needed a time out. I see that yesterday was no better. Up and down.

    I’ll monitor the market after hours for signs of a trend that I can work with, otherwise will continue to enjoy being away from screen.

    GL and bon weekend.


  2. kc135guy(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 12:18 pm

    Yeah – we have been in the dark. But, sites like yours over the past few years generate discussion and action on our part. The light is out there – and you are helping us to see it. If not for finding your site years ago – I would still be in the dark about HB&B. Keep the floodlight on Mr. Cara, the we are rising from the abyss…

  3. Grym(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 12:21 pm
  4. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 12:27 pm

    Good morning.

    NOK – Downgraded to Equal Weight @ Barclays

  5. Grym(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 12:36 pm


    A couple of your questions raise a couple more for me.

    You asked:

    3. Commercial Real estate will probably be one of the next bodies to float to the surface. With rents down, and vacancies up more owners are unable to make payments. What are the sub sections of this ‘market’, and who are the major players? What are the ‘tipping’ signs?

    Residential RE is measured in Owner Equivelent Rent rather than actual home prices. This had the of delaying the inflation in prices and is now delaying the deflation in housing values. Is this also true in the commercial market?

    You asked:

    “4. Unemployment numbers. How large were different employment sectors in 2007? How many people? What was the average national wage for each sector?
    What about now?”

    I think we need to ask the same question, but look back to the 1970s. Not just the numbers are different now.

    A. We have a larger official population AND a much larger and more widely distributed “undocumented” population. These people are often paid in cash and at below average levels.

    B. Those people still working have 401(k) plans not pensions. Many are no longer getting matching contributions. Others have used up unemployment benefits, are no longer counted as unemployed and are using their savings and/or retirement funds to pay the mortgage.

    C. We are now two-thirds “service economy” employed. Most of these jobs are lower pay and without benefits.

    D. Because much of what we must buy is no longer made here, can we expect a return of manufacturing in the US?

  6. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 12:46 pm

    Updated GLD weekly chart.

    If & when it breaks through the neckline then the Target Zone is 130 +/-

    GLD Daily support @ 90

    Still short OIH & UNG.

    Telestar3d – GREAT Link [upchucky] from last night… Thanks!

  7. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 1:24 pm

    Took my profit early PM…Until I hear back from my Oil guy on the “internal workings” of UNG, I’m not comfortable holding it long term. Will trade it only for now. Damn…isn’t there anything left that isn’t under the cloud of manipulation?

  8. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 1:50 pm

    “A new report by and the Investigative Reporting Workshop (of American University in Washington) shows that bad loans increased at 60% of banks in the first quarter compared to the end of the year. Overall, bad loans rose another 22% in the quarter. The information is based on information reported by banks to the FDIC at the end of the quarter.

    The report also says that out of the largest100 banks, 86% showed declining ability to withstand losses. And banks are being allowed to pay back their TARP funds early?”

    Sy Harding

    [Edited: Covered all outstanding oil & gas shorts at opening]

  9. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 1:54 pm


  10. holdenll(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    A few days ago, Bill asked us which of the Cara 100 would we short. Did anyone compile the results? Just wondering….I had chosen BMY and cover above 21.25.

  11. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 2:02 pm

    That’s my take.

  12. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 2:10 pm

    BBY – estimates, target raised at Barclays to $42. Estimates also boosted, to reflect expected market share gains. Overweight rating.

    PAYX – Downgraded at Goldman to Conviction Sell from Sell. Limited price leveraging and a decline in new sales led to the downgrade. Price target established at $23.

    PBR – Upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Overweight. $56 price target. Risks are abating, and there likely won’t be more retail price cuts.

    QCOM – estimates, target boosted to $52 at Merrill Lynch/Bank of America. Estimates also raised, to reflect the company’s new guidance and higher ASP’s. Buy rating.

  13. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 2:11 pm

    It’s too bad it’s Friday and the market is so bad…This stock seems to want to go higher, but I’m hesitant to bet (yet)

  14. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 2:19 pm

    in 4.46

    • G(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 2:29 pm

      4.78 and climbing, your entry looks great!

      Are you in this for a short trade or longer term investment? Just wondering due to the class action lawsuits that have been filed.


      EDIT: never mind shark, i see you just sold

      • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 3:40 pm

        Hi G.

        I got a friend who’s real hot on this company, got me interested, but these nasdaq stocks move like 1500 pounds of Texas steer with a cattle prod to the backside, so having gotten a nice move, and this being screwdoodle Friday, i thought discretion oughtta be the better part of valor.

        EDIT at 11:40

        Bad idea selling. Got an object lesson in the very principle I was trying to enunciate yesterday, namely, maximizing moves.

        • G(118083 comments)-
          June 12, 2009 at 3:49 pm


          It’s had quite a week this week. Somebody used a HOT cattle prod today, it was up over 20%.

          In general, when you’ve made money in a stock (like this one today), does that make you more reluctant to get back into it? Just wondering how to balance the emotions of having made the right decision early with not trying to chase a stock.

          • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
            June 12, 2009 at 4:06 pm

            Depends G. There are a ton of factors that enter in, but the thing about trading that must be understood is, it isn’t about price, it is about time and events. What makes for a good trade? A low price? Hardly. A good trade is something you can buy now and sell for more sonner or later, hopefully sooner right? So it comes down to supply and demand. To answer your question, I don’t feel reluctant to get back into SQNM WHEN THE ENVIRONMENT IS conducive to a trade. Right now it’s a minute to noon on a Friday and this game is closing down faster than Cinderella’s social life at midnight. I am not interested in getting chewed up in tops right now, but this stock should power higher. I will be looking closely next week.

            What’s happened is (totally fictional scenario) Rahm Emmanuel’s brother talked to a buddy at FDA and got the word that SWNM is golden. He then contacted his hedgie-buddies and tipped them, causing the radical moves of this week. How else do you think he moved out of his 900 dollar apartment in westwood or wherever and into a ten million dollar mansion in Beverly? Think it was his good looks?

            “You’re not naive enough to think you’re living in a democracy, do you buddy…?”

          • G(118083 comments)-
            June 12, 2009 at 4:11 pm

            I know my looks wouldn’t buy that 1500 pound steer you mentioned earlier. I’m working on the “brain” part – well, this market is working on my brain.

            Trying to get a handle on the market environment is like trying to grab air.

  15. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 2:23 pm pushing $21 this AM

    • manx928(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 4:16 pm

      TCK.B – I’ve been raising and tightening my stop as it continues to rise, but with less vigour, (it looks kind of like it’s going to roll over and head down). It’s an example of my trying to let a winner run, but not wanting to let some nice gains evaporate if it suddenly stumbles. Shorting it seems too far in opposition to that philosophy of letting winners run.

      • manx928(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 7:54 pm

        Well, as usually happens, I was stopped out in a dramatic midday spike down. Not all, mind you – just half my position that I’d applied the hard stop to. We’ll see next week what to do with the other half and/or whether to buy back in.

  16. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 2:26 pm

    thinking of Vad

    (woops sold a little early, Vad would not do that)

  17. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 2:46 pm

    I”m seeing some serious distribution in BAC this morning. Massive volume and the price is not responding the same way it did yesterday…

    Distribution fits with a “upgrade the stock and distribute” thesis.

    FD: no position

    • tgifbipo(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 3:32 pm

      Dave, do you think that the banks and the market in general can hold off till months end to make the quarter results look good for funds sake ?

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 3:37 pm

        Boy, you got me. I’m just day by day at this point.

        If I knew the answer to that one, I’d load up one way or the other. 🙂

  18. danf556356(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    It looks like the Fed made a great trade yesterday by buying approximately $5 billion in 30 year bonds,then driving yields down today and I’ll wager that they sold futures against the position today. Killed two birds with one move. Made the auction look good and made a profit doing so.


  19. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 3:32 pm

    Lot of mid-range contracts… Adobe made it ‘ flash ‘ ( !! ) on screen a couple of years ago… anyway, charts look decent on rsi and mo-flow…

  20. Seamus(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 3:40 pm
    • cheapy(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 5:38 pm

      “complete trust”

      Would you be trying to secretly unload $134 billion worth of something you had “complete trust” in? Only a few 3 countries even own that much US debt in the first place, so it doesn’t even matter if it wasn’t Japan trying to unload them quietly.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 5:48 pm

        Maybe this is a good catalyst for a $USD rally, the fact that somebody wants to ditch their treasuries…

        Just think of the 100,000pt rally we’d have if Paulson, Bernanke, Bush and Obama all got up on the post to declare they lied to us all about everything we were told!!!!

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 5:53 pm

        One side note. How many people here have had their luggage inspected to the point where a batch of treasury notes hidden in their luggage would have been found by customs agents? I mean, really?

        I’m guessing this might have been a US intelligence agency success. Try this on for size: The NSA (CIA?) figured out what was going down, and they notified the italians and – italians win, the US government wins, and the chastened japanese are stopped from selling off their treasuries.

        Darned Japanese. Who do they think they are, trying to sell their treasuries?

  21. photogray(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 3:49 pm

    Does this look like a MACD roll over and may be setting up for a dip to buy? NOT ADVICE dyodd
    long PAL
    and back into SPNG after missing out of most of the spike after selling way too early.
    gee isn’t there a guru here who keeps chanting…”let yer winners roll”
    Sold 3/5 of CPST yesterday
    long SLW, WHY, WNR
    Peace from North Puget Sound

  22. hsj79(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 3:50 pm

    Not sure if this has been posted already. If this moves forward, it should be very interesting to follow.

  23. Blowout Preventer(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 3:59 pm

    Fat chance of one of us getting in–too much enforcement and transparency and not enough “capture”!


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  24. Seamus(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 4:03 pm

    Taking profit (main acc’t), exiting S, @ $5.25.

    Retaining smaller positions in a few managed accounts.

  25. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 4:06 pm

    Nice move Bill, very nice. I presume the yield, the prospects of some strong dollar jawboning, the crisp and clear signals from the indicators, the potential of a secondary correction up to ~$98-$100 from oversold conditions, and the general uncertainty in equities prompted this? Dang, my signals missed yesterday’s move but are flashing all green today.

  26. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 4:23 pm


    When breadth gets maximally overbought AND
    Shorting the weak, not the strong AND
    No equity tailwind from weaker dollar (see Gann dollar chart this AM) AND
    The small fry don’t keep getting a bid AND
    VIX stops getting crushed

    It is HARD making big money on the short side…see SRS today

    The more I read Gann, the more I see his genius.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 5:03 pm

      Ron – You left out a reference to the Cramer indicator…

      • Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 5:05 pm

        JJC is entertaining, but only the circus performers make any money at the circus…I don’t watch him or read his recs.

  27. bobj(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 4:37 pm

    This is off topic, but the other day allengg and quentusrex talked about Ubuntu linux. I’ve thought about changing to linux for a long time but finally downloaded Ubuntu yesterday and started playing with it on my laptop. At this point I can’t believe how fast it boots, even though it is in dual boot mode right now, and also the speed it connects to my network. At this short time using it, I expected way more problems.

    I’m going on holidays for a week and thought it an ideal time to learn more. If allengg/quentusrex or anyone else has pointers/books/software solutions/websites etc that would speed the learning process I would be all ears. I’ve been reading about using Amibroker, IB’s TWS, etc in Wine, but Virtualbox was mentioned the other day. Is this used instead of Wine? Please use ‘contact the author’ if you don’t think a reply belongs here.

    Thanks to anyone who helps this linux newbee.

    • allengg(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 5:21 pm

      Hola Bob ! bienvenidos a Linux, in any language.
      Best place for help is in the Linux Forums. , please register.
      If there it’s allengg
      (note: try not to be an evangelist ) just because it’s faster, safer, cleaner and with many more programs.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 5:37 pm

        Maybe we’ll even get lucky enough to have Microsoft move out of country… Or even off the planet. Maybe they’ll take Intel and BAC with them.

    • cheapy(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 5:41 pm

      I suggest you try debian if you aren’t a computer newbee. Its much better at handling video from the web. I tested IB on linux about a year back and it worked fine. They had a linux version. TOS runs on debian, including the live CNBC feed and radio feeds.

    • quentusrex(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 5:49 pm


      To use IB TWS you want to get java setup on your machine, then it is just a matter of downloading the jnlp applet to be able to run the TWS from your desktop.

      A couple of things that will definitely help:

      1. Understand how software distribution works with ubuntu. Almost all software for Ubuntu is free and open source. Coming from the windows world this won’t seem intuitive, but I’ll explain in a moment why it works. So, when you click ‘Applications’ then ‘Add/Remove…’ you will get a window where you can quick install some of the most common applications. I suggest setting it to ‘All available applications’. If you are looking for an application that does something, just type it in the search box. You will use this for 90% of the applications you want to use.

      2. Understand how to get support. I am here, and others too would probably be able to help with most issues. If I don’t respond feel free to send me an e-mail through this site. But you will also want to know about IRC and the ubuntu support there. So go to the ‘Add/Remove…’ and search and install ‘x-chat’. There are two versions, they do the same thing but have different ‘skins’ so you could even install both and pick which you like. At this point google will be a huge help too. You want to join the channel ‘#ubuntu’, and the network is ‘’. If the application comes setup with a channel ‘#ubuntu’ then no worries you are connected through a different, but completely working network. Now, in this channel you can ask for help and most of the time you can get really good help. It might take you asking a few times, but there are people in there that want to help.

      3. Yes, all(practically) of the software and applications are free. But there is a ‘social/community’ responsibility to report to either #ubuntu, or to any bugs or problems you have. When you eventually run into a bug, by reporting it programmers and developers are able to get them fixed(if they can get enough information from you about the bug so that they can track it down).

      4. For the IB TWS stuff you need to install java’s JRE. Here is a link that should help:

    • brent(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 6:03 pm

      Hi Bob,
      I use Linux every day as my main computer, boot Windows about once every 6 months or so. About the only thing I’ve found requiring Windows is some gaming software.

      I have tried Fedora, ubuntu, and kubuntu; so far kubuntu is my favorite. One thing Linux provides is more choices than Microsoft Windows. The difference between ubuntu and kubuntu is the desktop software: ubuntu uses gnome while kubuntu uses kde. I am becoming a kde fan but most people use gnome. I suggest trying both before settling into one for the long haul.

      Regarding investing and trading, Linux works fine with the Firefox browser. I use Firefox for accessing as well as my online brokerage account, and of course caracommunity!

      Different people have different learning styles. There is a ton of info on the Web about Linux, ubuntu, and all of the open source software. If you prefer books, there is “The Official Ubuntu Book”, but I have not read it so cannot recommend. There are multiple Linux magazines out there. The best way I have learned was taking Linux classes at a local community college and loading and running various Linux distributions. There are a lot of Linux user’s groups in this country. I have also learned about Linux by attending events such as LinuxFest Northwest in Bellingham, WA. Also signed up for daily summary emails from a local Linux user’s group, helps me keep current on Linux issues in the local community. Google news will give you the latest Linux hype, but local user’s group tells you how Linux is really being used.

      Good luck!


      • allengg(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 6:14 pm

        Did not expect this reaction when I opened the Linux/Ubuntu subject.
        For those of you who may object to the posts, lo siento!
        For “trading” using anything BUT Linux is dangerous. The only MS O/S that worked , IMHO. was PRO 2000. If you want or need help, please email me, not the forums.(6+ yrs Linux)

        • bobj(118083 comments)-
          June 12, 2009 at 7:33 pm

          Thanks to all for your insights. Blocked the posts and moved into my “linux info” doc. Will play around till I have a better feel for it. I have to be sure this will work for me as we run a business from our home and my wife is the bookkeeper. She hates change and moving from Firefox to Google Chrome was a big move. If I make the announcement I’m changing all computers to Linux and then the blog posts stop, please send help!

  28. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:00 pm

    Quality is out the window, the bird of paradise is resting on the window sill.

  29. mortgagpaid(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:02 pm

    this market should be much much lower

  30. Bev(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:12 pm

    Possible inverse head & shoulders on the USD forming. It is ugly looking, but if it breaks through the neckline then commodities related stocks should be effected. Maybe even gold.

    Worth watching if you are still holding these types of stocks.

  31. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:15 pm

    This just makes me totally sick to my stomach, Lewis admits lying to shareholders and the stock goes up.

    I think I’m going to quit trading.

    • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 5:18 pm

      CP think of it as a shorting opportunity. 🙂

      But for the record I agree with you. He’s basically saying not only did he lie, but he also threw his shareholders under the bus so he and the board could keep their jobs.

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 5:32 pm

        davefairtex – I prefer not to think about it because I bought last year at $14 based upon poor decision and sold a couple days ago at $11.96 thoroughly disgusted with the entire charade.

        I just had to vent my frustration over this, my face is blood red right now I’m so angry…

        • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
          June 12, 2009 at 5:44 pm

          CP – Ah, that makes sense. You were one of those shareholders who were thrown under the bus, I can see why you might be unhappy with the performance of Mr. Lewis. I’m actually astonished BAC isn’t a zero at this point. I was fully expecting it to be sucked under back in March.

          • loannetter(118083 comments)-
            June 14, 2009 at 8:56 pm

            BAC has developed a nasty reputation for denying Borrowers who approach them predefault with hardships attempting to modify their loans. What have they got to loose by saving a loan? Instead they are gaining more properties on their REO desk . Unless their intent is to speculate in RE?

      • MtnGntx(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 5:34 pm


  32. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:24 pm

    They appear to be making good progress on several fronts,and their diabetes drug has done well on limited patient groups… I think this one bears attention, as additional trial placements are underway. As with any Bio., the swings will be large, and I would perfer to wait a few weeks before establishing a large position. At the present, I am buying small amounts. Any of you guys have more insight than is present at this time ?? Thanks, and hope all have a good weekend…..

  33. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:25 pm

    Today’s volumes:

    xlf 39,776,214
    gs 4,844,392
    wfc 29,336,439
    bac 293,958,516
    c 87,111,118
    gld 9,670,095
    gg 4,211,959
    aapl 10,969,444
    amzn 3,848,878
    spy 100,612,540

  34. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:25 pm

    news was sold
    rolling over right now

    Anyone buying miners today or waiting for bigger

    Sold PFE and TIP this AM

    looking at adding to my KGC at some point

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 6:00 pm

      Standing aside on the miners. Sold PAL yesterday at 2.70 BADLY heading toward the close. I just couldn’t take it home with the ondexes failing to do what they needed to yesterday.

      Haven’t touched Yamana since it tortured us longs and depleted our funds at and below the 20 day.

      If if makes an A-up on monday good underlying and all that I will load the boat but that’s next week. Had it fallen TRAGICALLY to 9 I would have bought there, but so far the 950 turnaround has been a big disappointment.

      I think the game’s probably over for me ’till nxt week. Besides, the sun came out. I haven’t seen the sun in a month and a half!

      • allengg(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 6:06 pm

        Hola shark, from the land of sunshine:
        Gold seems to be hovering, here, at 940 doesn’t look like much change for ABX or Tek.B and YRI:T is only down .35.
        Looks like it’s holding, reason to sell ?

    • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
      June 13, 2009 at 12:32 am

      PZ- “Anyone buying miners today or waiting for bigger

      Didn’t think I would but all 3 orders filled while at work. AUY/9.54…SLW/9.95…KGC/17.68.

      Dave- Let go of TBT this morning…for now.

      TOF- I saw the SPNG tape at lunch and almost choked on my taco. I couldn’t find anything could you?

      EDIT; Just to keep the ledger clean, I also let go of CPST @ 1.22.

      • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
        June 13, 2009 at 3:21 am

        MarkW – yeah the TBT thing I bailed out of a couple of days back. I got stopped out, bought back in, and got stopped out again. I figured it was a sign. Then Bill says he went and bought TLT and that kinda put a damper on my enthusiasm to get back in. Looking at the TLT chart just reinforced that feeling.

        Also, I bailed out of my UNG long. Still have my short Oct 13 puts, but I was feeling kinda twitchy today. I like the play, I’m just not sure I like the vehicle, or the timing. The natgas companies are bid up all to hell and gone, and the commodity ETF seems squirrelly. And the futures have dreadful leverage and volatility.

        I will miss Mark Barry. MarkW just doesn’t seem the same. But then again, my last name really isn’t fairtex so I shouldn’t say anything. 🙂

        • MarkW(118083 comments)-
          June 13, 2009 at 4:08 am

          Dave- It’s always been and all ways will be Mark Barry. Clients that I build for tell their friends that it’s a Barry House. You guys will always know the back story. Just here it needs to be MarkW. But pls. drop the W.

  35. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:44 pm

    with the lack of volume, i am suspecting another end of day rally into the close. I am only going by past several sessions.

  36. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 5:54 pm

    wow. what a drop. i was upset about missing out on another $40k on the rise up to $.28 today. now i’m happy i avoided the drop to $.08.

  37. FireFly(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 6:11 pm
  38. baz22(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 6:12 pm

    why I am trading, at this point, lower priced equities, especially biotechs. My belief is that the ‘ market ‘ is an endless ocean, basically every cycle repeats itself in chosen points of time vs. sentiment ( ie: the entire course of traders emotions and choices ).. kinda like the cycles of the moon and its effects on the oceans ( no, I don’t use astrological charts… not yet, anyway !! … although there is some valid ‘ research ‘ out in the wild blue )… but anyway, it seems that, at This point, the fund managers have just about played their hand and what they are investing in, or going to invest in … which leaves ‘ the trade ‘… I am strictly thinking of the extreme trade moves, the 2,3 and 5 baggers… America, and the world for that matter, is getting sicker every day.. Yep, certain disease rates have come down, but the overall expansion is increasing ( does that make sense ? ).. The more ‘ common ‘ ailments such as Diabetes, ALS, Lupus, joint destruction, etc, are multiplying.. No one will tolerate pain and discomfort for long, so either suicide will go up, or the search for relief will go up ( or both…blame it on politics )….. I do believe we are reaching a point in time where the new ideas will come to fore, bringing their respective companies with them. There are so many ‘ once high flyers ‘ that trade for basically pennies… The really neat thing is, their research has advanced, while the stock prices have fallen… what a great and perfect combination. Risky, yes… But isn’t that why we are here…..

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 6:25 pm

      baz22 – Welcome, please keep posting here but you must promise not to follow my trades…. for I don’t understand any of the basic concepts of market psychology. 😉

      • baz22(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 6:59 pm

        Hi, ‘ chick ‘….. I think Bill is the real deal, through his experience and cash on the line, he has opened up a world to us that was previously ‘ members only ‘… Only very rarely does a person willingly give without expecting anything in return, and Bill Cara is such a case.. We all can learn so much ( I have to reread all of his print 3-4 times, and even then I think, ‘ how in the hell does one person know so much ‘ )… As for the psychology, its all part of the flow of money, as you well know. Guess it boils down to who’s hungry and who’s not….. take care.

        • salty(118083 comments)-
          June 12, 2009 at 7:06 pm

          From a newbie whose still very “wet behind the gills” to one just joining us…welcome. These people are great!

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 7:24 pm

      baz22, it is true that you may make 100 trades of x$ in order to survey the landscape; because when the time and place is right, you are then prepared in advance to make 1 trade of 100x$.

      I know a person who spends tens of thousands of dollars to travel around North America to attend investor forums where he looks for that gem in the rough.

      I used to ask for his A-list and he’d simply smile.

  39. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 6:13 pm

    Yamana looks to have good support at 9.50 – 9.75, at RSI 29. Bought a little early, but have a stop in case gold gives up the ghost further.

    FD: Long AUY @ 9.55

  40. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 6:15 pm

    From daily report: semis weak…no comment from Bill…he did say that Semis usually lead the market up, whether he was referring only to the beginning or middle or later stages I do not know.

    1.low volitility invironment
    2.$HCX…negative divergence on MACD daily
    3.$DAX & $NIKK look Technically strong…they are big exporters
    4.$BPOEX or bullish percentage on $SPX is almost equal to beggining 09 & we fell from there to 666. Curious however, $SPC peaked Oct 08 when $BPOEX was near Zero, so perhaps there appears to be no correlation. One theory might be that the October time frame was not representative of a Normal market environment. I suspect Bill may agree with that.

  41. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 6:16 pm

    Intraday tells. Use at your own peril.

    • wpepper(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 7:38 pm


      I been having trouble going to your site for the last month. Originally thought it was because I was using an older version of IE on my p.c. but I’m also get errors using IE 7 on my laptop. Several times I was able to get to your site but when I closed the web page an infinite number of windows will open until IE crashed.

      Internet Explorer cannot open the Internet site

      Operation aborted

  42. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 6:24 pm

    I am thinking knowing the relative values of:

    are important indicators. To that point, could you gives us guidance about what they normally tell us so that so we can wade through the BS and possibly use them to gain insight into possible trend changes.


    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 7:36 pm


      are not aspects of the market I study closely enough to provide a study of relativity. There is a lot of literature on each of these.

      I do think highly of Pascal Willain’s Effective Volume (EV) as it helps me trade individual equities. I also look for blocktrades in penny stocks where prices are very low (accumulation) or high (distribution).

      I know that when $VIX is very low, it’s not a good time to write put and call options, and when it’s high, it is.

      On extreme range days at potential market reversal points, I think market breadth is important because it’s pretty hard for new trends and cycles to start without market breadth.

  43. yvrapx(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 7:17 pm

    I recall a link that was posted a ways back by a Caraista on fund ownership of individual stocks, does anyone have it? If so, can you post it again?

  44. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 7:20 pm

    I’m standing back from it today, but the rise to the close is on again. A good entry would have been $64.3 at 12pst

  45. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 7:28 pm

    Looks like some serious sector rotation into REITs. The market is moving sideways, but individual sectors bounce up and down with enough volatility to make HB&B some money.

    Isn’t this interesting it happens right after the MACD crossover yesterday? Wonder how many people got short (in SRS) only to have the rug pulled out today?

  46. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 7:48 pm

    I was looking over JPM and it looks like S & P downgraded some Jumbos and other stuff recently today.

    • TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 8:32 pm


      They are up half and down half…it has been a battle for direction recently. Light volume compared to yesterday except xlk and xly.

  47. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 7:51 pm

    From what I’ve been reading on Minyanville today, the housing market is going to be a drag on America for a long time to come, the equity market may consolidate and base sideways in a range…what Kruger called “inlier event”. I’m thinking of loading up on some yield product and riding out the summer. give trading a break and get some fresh air. Given the apparent fundamentals, can oil really go much higher? If it does, it starts to hurt the economy. The market appeared lethargic today.

  48. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 7:52 pm

    From what I’ve been reading on Minyanville today, the housing market is going to be a drag on America for a long time to come, the equity market may consolidate and base sideways in a range…what Kruger called “inlier event”. I’m thinking of loading up on some yield product and riding out the summer. give trading a break and get some fresh air. Given the apparent fundamentals, can oil really go much higher? If it does, it starts to hurt the economy. The market appeared lethargic today.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 8:17 pm

      “I’m thinking of loading up on some yield product and riding out the summer.”

      I’ve been thinking the same thing, can’t afford to waste another summer.

  49. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 8:06 pm

    Another interesting close. Perhaps they really wanted that headline that said “the market moved up today” even if only by 1 point. Gotta keep the consumer confident, especially for the weekend.

    The harder they work on this confidence thing, the less I believe in it.

    The Truth needs no defense; it can defend itself without any man’s help. Lies on the other hand, require constant support.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 8:07 pm

      Dog days of summer and summer doesn’t even start for another week.

      • westcoaster(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 8:12 pm

        Did nothing, no change in portf value. It makes me realize I’ve learned something as a trader. Don’t trade for no good reason. Wonder what catalysts are around the corner?

  50. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 8:14 pm

    Few of you have held TBT for a while, does it have the same decay characteristics as 3X funds, any opinions? I think we are going to get another opportunity to go long with TBT & am thinking how i should deal with it?

    • Freedom57(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 8:56 pm

      The best tool I have found for comparing leveraged ETFs to the underlying, is the Performance Charts feature on Enter TBT and TLT, and you will get a chart showing the percentage move of both over the time frame on the chart. Use the slider below the chart to select the start of the time frame. I find it useful to check various time intervals, peak to peak cycles, peak to trough cycles, total time available on the chart, etc.

      • Shiva(118083 comments)-
        June 13, 2009 at 3:41 am

        Freedom, thx

        • MarkW(118083 comments)-
          June 13, 2009 at 3:58 am

          Shiva- Off all the ultras I track TBT seems to have the least erosion. At the least, the leverage provided makes up for the difference between the underlying.

  51. normzyx(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 8:25 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 8:39 pm

      SRS – Looks like it may be headed to ~$20… just confirmed support today.

      • BillySundance(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 9:05 pm

        I saw on a different board that Merril Lynch upgraded Simon Property (SPG) this morning but haven’t seen anything else to confirm that. SPG was very weak Wednesday with a modest bounce on Thursday.

        Today looked like the market trapped traders that tried to reshort SPG on the Thursday bounce (off the Wednesday low). If it was indeed the upgrade from Merrill I think it is a great indication of how powerful market participants can use media to influence short term market direction. Also Friday upgrades/downgrades are about as suspicious as they come. SPG has made lower highs and lower lows since 6/1/09 -> next lower low to break is that $51.08 from Weds…..

        NLY also looked like it may have just closed an overhead gap in its 5-day chart at end of day and could be susceptible to a reversal next week…….or not.

        In general these REITS look tired and I am skeptical that HB&B can pump enough sectors to create another leg of this rally soon…..unless the US dollar gets blown to smithereens that is.

        • bobbyo(118083 comments)-
          June 12, 2009 at 10:02 pm

          Billy I watched SRS really close this week. I believe its movement this week could be linked almost entirely to treasury yields in anticipation of future mortgage rates. I believe upgrades and down grades had little effect. Today’s decline was due to the perception that the 30 year auction went well yesterday blah blah IMHO.

  52. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 8:48 pm

    You can see what is the discount to NAV and if you dig in you can find the yield.
    Here’s my partial list SDF.un, SRC.un, EIT.un,HYM.un for yield.

    PME, TCP, for growth, material events or redemption at NAV to occur sometime this year.

  53. MtnGntx(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 8:56 pm

    OOOOooooo… Lookie here!

    A trade war with Israel:

    The US can stop subsidizing the Israeli state for billions annually… and stop favoring the Israelis with corporate contracts…. and stop allowing Israelis undue influence in management and regulation of inistitutional and govermental procedure and policy here in the US…. This might be our chance to take them out of the military-industrial-banking loop altogether here in the US! Where do I sign up?!??!?!

    I suspect big Benjamin will have a short convo with this guy soon. He will say ; “Dont bait the goyim, Peled.”

    …hehe…or something else just as profound.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 11:33 pm

      That’s a pretty sensitive subject but if it would result in cessation of dropping bombs and mindless torture of innocent civilians for no apparent reason, I’m all for it.

  54. normzyx(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 9:31 pm
  55. normzyx(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 9:37 pm
  56. vinod(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 10:46 pm

    Brought UAUA at 3.80 and FXP at 11.80 also SRS at 18.15. only small position and have stop on all of them. May buy few more ariliners

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 11:36 pm

      vinod- I followed you into SRS after hours. Also threw a few chips onto FAZ. Sometimes buying on Friday exhaustion can pay off pre-market Monday. If not, well, we can take our chips off then and wait for the next come out roll.

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 11:53 pm

        Now I am not planning to make killing, but to make or lose small amount. When time is right I do have my eye on OEX. Wants to make only few OEX trade every now and than but wants to hit it right. I know market always will give us that time. Went with airliners instead of DUG

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        June 13, 2009 at 12:00 am

        2nd- That’s betting on the apple while it’s still in the tree. Careful it doesn’t bonk you on the head. Have a great weekend.

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          June 13, 2009 at 12:11 am

          I’m playing a round on a slot machine that’s burned every player for the past 3 months.

        • vinod(118083 comments)-
          June 13, 2009 at 12:11 am
  57. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    June 12, 2009 at 10:48 pm

    Canada’s former Prime Minister on BNN today:

    “Sooner, or later, China’s Hedge Funds are going to fail. There’s going to be a mortgage meltdown in India.”

    Whoa! That sent a shiver up my spine.

    • allengg(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 11:20 pm

      RT Hon Paul Martin is very astute, and ethical. But the statement sounds much out of character, unless he truly believes that.
      How much of China’s hedge funds are invested in North America and Europe ?
      Mackinaw, was that a “snippet” taken out of context ? Otherwise it’s scary.

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 11:34 pm

        No, not part of a snippet – it was a 30 minute interview. I rushed to post it here. When pressed a little later (I think he unnerved one of the interviewers) he did qualify it by saying something along the lines of “look, it’s inevitable. As Brazil, China and India’s economy become as large as the U.S. they are bound to experience financial crisis. I managed my way through 4 or 5 of these since the 90’s. It’s going to happen.”

        Nevertheless, it was his specificity as to the source of the flashpoints that jarred me.

        Here’s the full interview:

        The issue begins around 13:00.

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 11:33 pm

      Morgage meltdown in India?
      less than 10% of home have morgage in India. and they don’t give you morgage unless you have 25% down payment

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        June 12, 2009 at 11:36 pm

        Maybe commercial mortgages?

        • vinod(118083 comments)-
          June 13, 2009 at 12:06 am
          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 12:16 am

            That’s what I hear also, Vinod. And I’m banking on it, if you know what I mean :P.

          • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 12:22 am

            Mac- Unless I missed it, did you let go of TBT?

          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 12:44 am

            Yes, I did. As I mentioned, I believe it has some more upside but the timeframe on that is a bit unclear to me now. I sold it on 8th of June @ $56.27. Today I bought TLT at $90.22. I’m nervous about it, but the strength (and now weakening) of the C$, the decent yield, the hedge it provides to my other stuff in this market condition, and the confidence I have in the signals (including many opinions here) I use, made me do it. There’s a stop on it – pretty clear in the charts.

          • FranSix(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 3:18 am

            Mr. Martin’s comments relate to the fact that an absent regulatory framework for every participant in the global economy will see a major meltdown for the beneficiaries of legerdemain, for example Chinese hedge funds, or that a housing boom in India could burst like a bubble, because there is no real political will to create an effective one.

            But you know, this goes back to the New York Times article by the former IMF economist who outlined how this is occurring in the U.S., how the emphasis is on the effort of diverting any political pressure from the banks and keep it on the shoulders of the populace.

            If Canada is to see its way out of the deficit by 2014, then obviously Mr. Harper’s conservative government is leaning towards legerdemain of the type we have seen in the U.S. and creepily announcing the fact on Fox news.

            Little known to the public is that Canadian banks ARE exposed to legerdemain already, with exposure both to real estate and hedge funds both in the U.S. and the U.K. There have already been somewhat hushed minor incidences of trading impropriety by a major Canadian lender tied to derivatives in London, and another just took major writedowns due to exposure in the U.S. mortgage market. Not even discussed is the merger of the Montreal derivatives market with the TSX, which was the epicenter of the ABCP scandal, which simply got swept under the rug.

            For instance, should the $C decline in an oil price debacle, that would effectively scotch stability in the bond auctions, so how does the former Prime Minister even get away with such rotten drivel? Glibly glossed over.

            Over to you!

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 12, 2009 at 11:39 pm

      I can’t watch the video but I assume there was no specific horizon given in terms of chronology? I’ve been having thoughts lately about all the money spent in China financing ultra large scale cookie-cutter cities….

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        June 13, 2009 at 12:06 am

        CP said: “but I assume there was no specific horizon given in terms of chronology?”

        Yes, CP, that’s correct.

        Say, while it’s the weekend and trading decisions are less “urgent”, I’d love to discuss a (possibly) really dumb idea that has been rattling around in my head for months.

        The idea is basically the following: Invest where you spend

        Maybe, at least, at the core of your investments, how about investing in dividend paying assets that reflect your personal expenditures, proportionally? So, I’m talking about REITS if you are a rentor (no sense in doing this if you are a home owner), Telecoms if you are a home/mobile user, Tobacco if you are a smoker, Utilities if you pay such a bill, Gov’t Debt if you pay taxes, Mutual Fund Companies if you are being bled dry in your RRSP (401K) management, Real Return Bonds if you are subject to inflation in your home country, Banks if you have debt with one, Food Providers if you eat :), etc., etc.

        The goal would be to recoup your core expenditures almost exactly. Once achieved on a consistent basis, if you’re a saver, that money is truly disposable income that can be invested in willy-nilly as you please, secure in the knowledge that if you fail, you are certainly immune from calamity.

        (after writing this, I had another dumb thought – maybe that’s precisely what prudent investing is all about ?)

        • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
          June 13, 2009 at 12:09 am

          Mackinaw – Certainly not dumb thoughts by any stretch of the imagination, don’t sell yourself short (Ha, a trading term!). Sometimes we miss the forest for the trees and need to step back for a panoramic view. I’m going to give it some time to sink in and see what comes to mind….

        • Grym(118083 comments)-
          June 13, 2009 at 12:58 pm
          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 1:06 pm

            Great advice, Grym. I too would be worried about the single-issue risks (really just the time/effort required to manage it). I had more in mind something along the lines of a sector approach, I guess. Although after these last 2 years, I’m not so sure that that diversification idea saved one from any great pain.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 1:52 pm
          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 2:03 pm

            As an example, this was part of my motivation to pick up some BAC – That is, just prior to their accepting Obama TARP funds and cutting their dividend to $0.01. The divy was supposed to compensate my banking fees… ;(

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 2:22 pm

            “Last I looked Vanguard too had a whole bunch of -30% funds last year.”

            The part I don’t understand is how these suposedly professionally managed funds could loose so much in such a short period of time unless they were contractually obligated to do so. If that were the case, they would have to outperform considerably under normal conditions before I would consider accepting the risk.

            For me, the inverse is true in terms of Treasuries from a buy and hold perspective, as the risk is supposedly low but the returns are substandard.

          • cheapy(118083 comments)-
            June 13, 2009 at 8:28 pm

            I think if you look more closely, you’ll find a very high degree of common holdings within fund families, and as a result, even if they decide to exit any one issue, it slams that issue, so instead they try to hold on through downturns, because as we have all been brainwashed to see, stocks always go up in the long term. In my mind, that more due to intentionally low reporting of inflation (ie increased money supply) than anything else.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            June 14, 2009 at 12:38 pm
          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            June 14, 2009 at 12:24 pm
  58. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 12:07 am

    Thank you for your kind words. None of us are in any way different than you. Remember 9th grade? You can probably pick out most of us looking back at your home room.

    Join in on the conversation. Everyone is unique.

    Did I just say we’re all pretty much the same, but each of us is unique? You know what I mean 😉

  59. TN_blogger(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 12:09 am
  60. Blowout Preventer(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 1:09 am

    I traded in and out of NOT.V years ago. It is now down to $.65C on low volume, and I see a huge position taken in mid-May (8.7M shares or so).

    I think I’m going to take a flyer on this–if everyone is printing money, any debt problems should go away. Would love to hear opposing opinions. Good weekend to all.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      June 13, 2009 at 1:54 pm


      “-if everyone is printing money, any debt problems should go away. Would love to hear opposing opinions.”

      I will assume you are serious or simply speaking in view of the market hype & government jawboning and phony data which has driven the equities to an annual high.

      Debt problems are growing by leaps and bounds. The mortgages of people with major home equity and excellent credit history are now in danger of default.

      Commercial real estate has not hit the “non- producing loan” fan yet.

      “Less bad” is to job growth what remission is to lung cancer.

      Add in the dollar image deterioration and massive bond sale issue.

      You were kidding… right?

  61. allengg(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 1:27 am

    Mack, as the CDN$ passes the .90 mark it becomes a mutifold problem for Canada.
    The slight dip is good for exports, which go mainly to the U.S., but we can buy many Canadian food products at Mega (Mazatlan) , at some point the C$ becomes a burden past 90cents. Plus California has enough trouble paying it’s electric bills to B.C.

  62. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 1:55 am

    Hi All,

    I felt I should take my last name off of this site. As it gains a larger following, and I refer to clients that I work for, it just seemed prudent. This will allow me post more specific info without putting myself in an awkward position. In case your not sure who this is, perhaps this might help…UNG, UNG, UNG!!

    I received an e-mail from my oil guy RE-UNG. As suspected, no help on the structure of UNG. I will edit and post his general remarks tomorrow. Have a great weekend all.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      June 13, 2009 at 2:29 am

      Mark- Probably a good idea. With client names like X+3B, you could have picked Han Solo.

      • bobbyo(118083 comments)-
        June 13, 2009 at 3:00 am

        Yes Mark, we need to get more creative. Maybe a hip hop flavor. How about M-Dub or Emindubayu or maybe MW-UNG.

    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      June 13, 2009 at 3:34 am

      Mark, thx for updating. I wud hv been wondering otherwise as to who is this new UNG guy 🙂

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 13, 2009 at 3:39 am

      Mark – FWIW, I promise to think of you as “The UNG Guy”.

      • MarkW(118083 comments)-
        June 13, 2009 at 4:01 am

        CP- Ah, like Mark is full of gas?!

        Just a quick note to all, as you will see tomorrow, my NG stance hasn’t changed at all. I just need to get my head around UNG and how it really works.

  63. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 2:16 am

    Rather than listen to the opinions of others, sometimes I try to just think things through using common sense.

    (a) Last Friday’s employment report was viewed ‘positively,’ as it presented the POSSIBILITY that the rate of layoffs/job losses may be slowing. However, (i) 600k+ jobs lost is still a huge number- that’s 600k+ fewer paychecks every 1-2 weeks available to pay the mortgage or the rent, (ii) the number is subject to upward revision next month, and (iii) next month’s numbers may again show an increase in the rate.

    (b) The official unemployment rate is now 9.4%. I can’t recall a rate that high in my career. That has to be meaningful. It doesn’t matter how low home prices are- you won’t qualify for a mortgage without a job.

    (c) I haven’t seen 4.875% for a 30-year fixed for several weeks. It’s now closer to 5.5%. Absent a subsidy from Uncle Sam, interest rates are not contributing to affordable loans right now.

    (d) Personal experience. I purchased a home in the Bay Area in 1993 at a 33% discount to its (prior) peak- I was pretty sure it was ‘the bottom.’ It wasn’t far from the bottom. But it was another 5 years before prices began to move up. Is the 2008/09 recession about as bad, or worse than the early nineties recession? I think it’s worse.

    (e) It was only 3 months ago that lenders and homebuilders were being sold off indiscriminately. XLF is up 2x from the low, XHB +50%. I can see the trend is up, but I don’t want to be opening positions now.

    (f) Pz- That was a magnificent spike down on Sponge Bob today. It was about a year ago bloggers here were speculating that SKF and SRS might hit 200. They went on to hit 300 (albeit only momentarily). I’m not looking for 200, of course. But hitting doubles with today’s buys is probably not off anyone’s radar screen.

  64. bobbyo(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 3:08 am

    Since the u-tube post of Elton last night. All I have been doing is watching early 70s arena rock instead of work, showering, engaging in life. Basically making me jones for a Qualude. Really amazed at all the content on You tube. An intervention may be needed by Sunday!

  65. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 3:19 am

    ALOHA !!

    While a lot is in the news about MELTDOWNS of CREDIT and REAL ESTATE this is the REAL unsung MELTDOWN and as the chart shows this one has been going since 1979 … MAN … look at that chart.

    I would like to relabel this chart AMERICA’S MIDDLE CLASS …


    Lets face it “recovery” is all relative when you look at this chart!


    It depends on what your definition of “is” …is …

    IT … IS … WHAT IT … IS !!

  66. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 3:24 am

    My favorite passage:

    “Just as I have a duty to ensure that each of you understand how this game is played, YOU now have that same duty to guarantee that your fellow speculator understands these rules. Just as I would be a criminal for not making this data known to you, YOU would be just as criminal to keep it a secret. There will always be an unsuspecting, trusting fool whom the rabid dogs will tear to shreds, but it does NOT have to be this way.”

  67. kaimu(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 3:28 am

    ALOHA !!

    When my wife and I were in Sydney, Australia in 2008 we went to the movie theater at Circle Quay. We wanted to see this movie entitled KITE RUNNER, but we got there too late. Now over a year and a half later we are going to watch it on DVD tonight. It has a Middle East theme.

    Last night we watched BODY OF LIES, also a distinct Middle East theme. Essentially the movie is about EMPIRE and its folly, even if the EMPIRE is high teched up its ying yang! What EMPIRE, past and present, is more high tech than that of the USA? In terms of EMPIRE … HISTORY REPEATS AND HISTORY REPEATS PRECISELY!

    I guess this weekend we are on a Middle East theme, so where’s the couscous and falafel?


    • Shiva(118083 comments)-
      June 13, 2009 at 3:35 am

      Kaimu, Kiterunner is an afghan movie – nice one…. hv u watched whale rider (about Maori life), you might enjoy it as well

      • kaimu(118083 comments)-
        June 13, 2009 at 11:50 am

        ALOHA !!

        Shiva … If its remotely Oceania and Polynesian I have seen it. Yes, I did see Whale Rider and it was a good movie. For a different Maori take there is the movie “Once We Were Warriors”. I do love Maori art and carvings, which I have collected over the decades. My favorite New Zealand based artist is John Pule(Pacific Islander from Niuea). He is also fairly well known author. Here he talks of his artistic influences.

        “Dreams were the holy ground from which your ancestors could stand and direct your life, introduce you to visions, symbolic pictures of places, caves, faces, animals, insects; also where they cry and lament, laugh and run, bring rain and storms, set canoes adrift, destroy gardens and homes, take children, leave messages in stone.

        A lot of my work then was about the entry of Christ into the Pacific. I depicted him as a sickly, unhealthy person, being carried by Islanders, and also hanging loosely on the crucifix . . . he’s up there for ages . . . no one wants to bring him down. No one wants to have anything to do with darkness. It’s a dark subject, even though Jesus is supposed to generate light.” END

        PULE LINK:

        Hummmmmm … anyway, I love most anything OCEANIA! That’s why I am in Hawaii …

      • kaimu(118083 comments)-
        June 13, 2009 at 11:51 am

        ALOHA !!

        Shiva … Yes, an Afghan movie … I highly recommend it. Very good!

        Between the Russians and the Americans Afghanistan is pretty much just ruble! Is there a Kabul McDonald’s?

        When the Russians were in Afghanistan we were best of pals with Bin Laden. We were once best of pals with Saddam Hussein as well.

        I especially liked the story of the tears that turn to pearls …

        There has been no shortage of tears in the Middle East!

  68. Shiva(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 3:37 am

    change of subject. For those who enjoy watching movies, i strongly advise building a home theater if u hv a spare room or garage, basement etc. You can spring $1500 and get a good HD projector these days, nothing beats watching it on a 120 inch screen.

  69. quentusrex(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 4:12 am

    It is interesting to me which of the charts are the steep steady slope up, and which are not.

    steady upward:
    All Employees: Construction (not that steady, but rather close)
    All Employees: Information Services (but strong down slope since 2000)
    All Employees: Retail Trade
    All Employees: Professional & Business Services (does this include finance?)
    All Employees: Service-Providing Industries

    inverted U shaped:
    All Employees: Durable Goods Manufacturing
    All Employees: Nondurable Goods Manufacturing

    How much of the US economy produces/provides goods and services that can be exported?

  70. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 5:15 am . If anyone can find a original video of “Time Of The Season”, I’d love to see it.

  71. Seamus(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 12:10 pm

    Gold:Silver ratio

    Historical patterns, trade considerations.

  72. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 12:46 pm

    AMR – Currently $4.55, MP: $5.00
    CAL – Currently $9.09, MP: $10.00
    DAL – Currently $6.39, MP: $7.50

  73. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 3:34 pm
    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 13, 2009 at 4:42 pm

      Mackinaw – Nice reference table, thank you for sharing.

  74. ssv(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    Alcoa(AA) and Talisman(TLM.TO) have been strong well priced scalpers for last couple of weeks. Those 100$ scalps do add up although if i had kept my initial purchase of 1000 shares of Alcoa at 9.89 and done nothing, the gains would have been better.

    I will keep buying from ‘fear’ and sell to ‘greed’ on a daily basis…..That’s what this casino is good for…

  75. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    June 13, 2009 at 3:42 pm

    At 666 it felt like a tightly compressed spring. If we assume this is a bear-market rally, then was it not fueled/refueled by negative sentiment/continuing skepticism?

    666 to 946 is a 42% move. Many traders took the earlier exits around 850-900. 920-950 feels driven more by momentum. It could go higher, but I think fuel in the form of a pullback is needed.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      June 13, 2009 at 5:08 pm

      “At 666 it felt like a tightly compressed spring. If we assume this is a bear-market rally, then was it not fueled/refueled by negative sentiment/continuing skepticism?”

      Agreed, let’s not rely on a false sense of security. What we have here I gather, is a false rally sponsored not by improving fundamentals so much as by manipulatory prodding. The FED is holding $7 Trillion off balance sheet and the extremely leveraged financial system is still hemorrhaging in triage. These guys are so far under water there’s just no way most won’t drown with the weight they’re carrying. After all, how do we know this rally wasn’t bought and paid for as a last ditch attempt, and what arrangements have been made for when the final bill comes due?

      Treasury receipts, if they are to be believed, simply don’t support a case for recovery while government spending has gone exponential. This could be a recipe for disaster; practically any kind of powdery substance is capable of explosion under the right set of circumstances:

      Of note: The fires are burning, are we nearing stage 4 or 5?

      Elements Needed for a Fire (the familiar “Fire Triangle”):

      1. Combustible dust (fuel);
      2. Ignition source (heat); and,
      3. Oxygen in air (oxidizer).

      Additional Elements Needed for a Combustible Dust Explosion:

      4. Dispersion of dust particles in sufficient quantity and concentration; and,
      5. Confinement of the dust cloud.

      It looks to me as if there’s an over-abundance of dust about to be delivered into a confined space inhabited by a slew of firebugs…. GLTA!!!

      It’s time for me to go fishing, enjoy the summer, and sit back and watch the concert from high up in the bleachers where chances of being drenched with blood stains are lowest.

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