Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Friday, Jul. 24, 2009

[8:08am ET] Goldman Sachs continues to blow smoke that the G-7 GDP numbers are on the rise. Add to their flock, the ex-Goldman banker, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. Today

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183 Comments

  1. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 12:24 pm

    In my view, programmed trading using algorithms are ok if not rigged the way some are. So, stop the nonsense without killing legitimate business.

    http://tinyurl.com/km3kco

    If market integrity is really the concern, why focus on algo trading? Why not start by legislating a system where an investment bank is a banker, a broker is merely a broker and an advisor must be a professional person and not a salesperson? Let’s first structure the marketplace fairly.

    Then, when it comes to Washington, let’s close the private highway between Treasury and the Fed and Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.

    Let’s not muddy the waters. We all know where the problems are. It’s time we addressed them.

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 1:00 pm

      Thank you for the voice of reason Bill. All this recent hoopla blaming everything under the sun on high frequency trading gets tiresome and sounds like not much more than a strawman designed to mask the real problem.

    • plam(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 2:16 pm

      I can’t seem to find any update about that stolen GS algorithm. And the guy arrested, Sergey Aleynikov, is he still locked up? In fact, the media has been pretty mum on this as far as I know.

      • jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 2:34 pm

        He is apparently out on a bond that was higher than that set for Stanford, the guy running the multi-billion dollar ponzi, and has also been hit with a gag order. Obviously quite a desperado.

        • yaba(118083 comments)-
          July 24, 2009 at 4:15 pm

          Sergei Aleynikov is apparently an accomplished ballroom dancer as well.
          http://tinyurl.com/o6wze3

          Following the info presented here I am up so far this year trading mainly SLW and UXG. I managed to get back the money I lost last year, trading in and out of a penny stock(AZD.V) and when it went zoom zoom I went bye bye! Learned the value of holding cash, and taking profits. Currently 90% cash. Not a day trader more like a weekly trader.
          Thanks to Bill and all that contribute in this community! Cheers

  2. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 12:40 pm

    Good morning.

    Downgrades:

    AMZN – to Hold @ Collins Stewart
    POT – to Neutral @ JP Morgan. PT = $90

    PT Raised:

    QCOM – from $50 to $52 @ Collins Stewart. Buy

  3. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:09 pm

    Here’s $USB. Bounced off the 200MA a couple of times now.

    http://tinyurl.com/USB-prices

    Econoday says Washington has lots of goodies to sell Monday thru Thursday next week.

    http://fidweek.econoday.com/byweek.asp?day=27&mont

    Daily chart of TLT shows it getting close to accumulation again. Despite the flat pre market readings I’d be looking for the market to rise today, just because it can…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=0&mn=4

    I circled those big down weeks cause we can see what HB&B can do to those going long on anything when long is not in vogue. I was wondering on the possibility of a “shock and awe” whiplash in the opposite direction next week, to get people panic buying the Treasury auctions. Who knows, maybe GS can make both treasuries and equities shoot higher at the same time as a new party trick?

    so on the 15 min charts TLT, with some luck, will get another day’s spanking and be sufficiently low to make the trade risk reward a little more interesting for next week.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=15&yr=0&mn=

    SPY -49, TLT + 19 at present. I’ll be looking for a flip, maybe morning, maybe afternoon as HB&B “screwdoodles” (tm. Sharkie) us one way or the other.

    JMTCW

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 1:15 pm

      The POG is indicated behind the TLT chart price. I’d want that dropping as well if I want people to buy my T-trash. I’ve a couple of little miners on my books that I hope to be green and ridden of by closing.

      We shall see.

      JMTCW

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 2:59 pm

      Hi Les, those moving averages are normally for a daily chart, not a weekly chart.

      If you use the 13-week EMA and the 34 – week EMA, this would show a crossover going down, which indicates a reduction in volume.

      The trend is clearly downwards, in effect.

      Very likely a bond market default will occur in the UK first, though.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 4:17 pm

        Hi F6, so for a weekly chart the MA’s are 91 and 238, is that it?

        I can’t see an input that permits me to write in weeks.

        I relooked at the chart with these new values and come up with something similar:

        http://tinyurl.com/weekly-USB-chart

        but flip it over to the daily chart with 50 and 200 ma and the down trend is clear.

        http://tinyurl.com/daily-USB-chart

        what am I doing wrong?

        • FranSix(118083 comments)-
          July 24, 2009 at 4:26 pm

          I wish to politely point out that the very first chart is a WEEKLY chart not a DAILY chart.

          Look up in the left hand corner where the $USB symbol is entered, and you will see that you have selected WEEKLY not DAILY.

          The second chart shows the crossover in the daily chart.

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 4:33 pm

            yeh yeh no offence taken and I understood what you were saying.

            But why is the weekly not showing something that the daily is?

            My guess is that the moving averages would be too long to show the crossover as of yet in the weekly chart.

            In weekly charts are a 13 week and what was it? 34 week average always used?

            Things look rosier in the weekly chart than the daily chart. Thanks for pointing that out.

        • Bev(118083 comments)-
          July 24, 2009 at 4:33 pm

          Les

          John Murphy of Stockcharts.com uses the 13 & 34 EMAs on “weekly charts” to confirm [when they cross each other] a trend change.

          http://tinyurl.com/l8t5lh

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 4:42 pm

            aaaaah! Proverbial light bulb has lit up over head! When inputting into a weekly chart the default time frame is weekly. understood. Thanks.

            http://tinyurl.com/that-is-better-now

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 4:55 pm

            So Les’ $USB chart would look like this.
            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USB&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31229678607

            I use Landry’s swing trading charts with more squiggley lines, but the same principle is involved, faster MA’s cross the slower ones indicating trend change.

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 5:01 pm
  4. gc(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:11 pm

    Let me guess S&P will hit 1000 for the last dance
    and last dance will ends when the music stop this Friday night…

    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 1:26 pm

      I plan to be sell today. I reached my goal of increasing my year to date.

      (I posted this for backbone strengthening that I will need after the open)

      good trading to everyone and look forward to the friday night utube fest tonight.

      vb

      • gc(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 3:42 pm

        no s&p 1000…
        music’s not loud enough to blast the party goer ears..

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 24, 2009 at 4:02 pm

          I think it ‘overshoots’ the obvious to 1100.

          • David(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 5:27 pm

            “I think it ‘overshoots’ the obvious to 1100.”

            2nd_ave, who do you think will be buying stocks between now and 1100? Haven’t everyone been so concerned about the economy in 2010 a month ago so as to drive S&P from 940 to 880? Have those concerns been alleviated in any way? What we had was a MAJOR short-covering rally, and now all the shorts are dead and all the longs (I believe every potential long has already placed some chips on the table) are very concerned about their profits and would want to take some now and re-enter the game only after some pullback. I think a pullback now to S&P 950 is inevitable (which is when the most dedicated longs will start re-entering the game), and this pullback can easily turn into a long and painful slide toward March lows.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 5:52 pm

            “who do you think will be buying stocks between now and 1100?”

            (a) Under-invested fund managers who have been waiting for a pull back.
            (b) Retail investors sitting in cash who have been waiting for a pull back.
            (c) Investors who start thinking maybe the trillions being pumped into the global economy may actually do some good.
            (d) Shorts who have not yet capitulated.
            (e) Shorts who capitulated earlier, are now shorting again, and will be covering again.
            (f) Foreign investors diversifying away from their own overheated markets.
            (g) I don’t know, man. But if it goes to 1000, I don’t think it turns around at 1000.

  5. calvino(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:11 pm

    Bill, I respectfully disagree. While algo trading is fine, the look ahead for a fee and colocation of servers at the exchange is not. Additionally, and this is subjective, 70 percent of trading volume should not be scalping.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 1:39 pm

      calvino, re: “While algo trading is fine, the look ahead for a fee and colocation of servers at the exchange is not”, we are in agreement. That’s the nonsense part I want eliminated.

      But, re: “70 percent of trading volume should not be scalping”, there is a reason why the majority of trading today is near-term oriented; it is clearly because of market instability caused by worries over the recent collapse of the financial system, which had everything to do with investment banking, lack of regulation and some immoral (or idiotic) responses from Washington, particularly the previous Treasury Secretary. Traders do what they have to do, not what they would like to do. If I can lose -5% in a single day in a stock like MCD (as happened yesterday on a day that was a roaring Bull), then I’m sorry but I will not take unwarranted risk. So, don’t blame me when I am scalping.

      When I wrote my book Lessons in the summer of 2007, I made a comment that IBM at 80 is not the same as IBM at 100, or something to that effect. So when the price zooms +25% in a matter of a week or two or three, I’m out.

      You think this stuff has not been happening? Look again. On Jul 10, with an RSI at 25, the solid chemicals company PPG closed at 41.94. Yesterday, nine sessions later Jul 23, PPG closed +25.1% at 52.47, with an RSI-7 >90. Is it scalping or common sense that I would sell PPG?

      Please don’t attribute the problems of this market to scalping. If you do, I’ll put you into the group of idiots who want to impose transaction taxes on near-term trading and I’ll fight that with a full-out crusade.

      We all know who is to blame for the mess the market is in. Don’t read some piece of garbage literature paid for by Jamie Dimon to throw you off the truth. If we get stuck with legislative changes that further tax us, I assure you here and now that Jamie’s billions will find loopholes in a couple days that he can take his army through, and you will be crushed in defeat.

      We have to stand united, and fight these guys.

      • golfer(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 1:58 pm

        Why did I start to invest? To make money.

        If I have a choice of where I invest and a 1 year CD or bond is paying 3.5% and I choose to invest in the stock of XYZ and it goes up 10% in a day or a week I become a trader.

        If a car dealer buys a car to re-sell it DOES HE HAVE TO WAIT a day, a month, 1 year to do whatever he wants to? Is there a law or a tax imposed on his sale if it occurs quickly after he bought it.

        I lost too much money waiting for my investments to “make me money.”

        I have learned from this site that I “buy companies but I trade prices” and when “the price is right” I “come on down.”

      • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 2:32 pm

        “We have to stand united, and fight these guys.”

        We can fight them but won’t win by out-trading them because we don’t have a level playing field. Sure, a few traders may make money, but this has nothing to do with a price discovery mechanism anymore.

    • javc2000(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 2:06 pm

      “Trade is my name and scalping is my game” and “do unto others as they would do unto you” comes to mind…my philosophy…totally agnostic with the market.
      Joe

      • jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 2:19 pm

        The big difference is that ‘they’ are doing it up to millions of times per second and some of them get to see the order flow in advance. Hardly the same thing as what you are doing.

  6. gc(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:14 pm

    looking for some puts opportunity…
    or even short some calls

  7. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    I have long theorized that the artificial shortages supporting retail diamond bubble prices should collapse. Maybe this is just the beginning.

  8. G(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:31 pm

    “Warren Buffett to CNBC: Invest in Stocks Even At Dow 9000
    Published: Friday, 24 Jul 2009 | 8:36 AM ET

    Warren Buffett tells CNBC that the economy still isn’t showing any signs of life but that doesn’t mean investors should stay away from stocks for the long-term.”

    Seems like I remember his last couple of public calls being followed by moves in the opposite direction. Is that correct?

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 1:33 pm

      He’s bailing out of Moody’s last time I heard. What, rating agency’s have difficulty with their business model?

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 1:47 pm

      G, Where was Buffett two weeks ago when the world was calling for a breakdown at S&P 880? He’s just like the rest, talking up his book like any good salesperson who has the customers on the run. Forget that stuff!

      • javc2000(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 2:16 pm

        Finally Buffett made it to the small screen…as a cartoon, teaching “my” kids how to be good investors?. There goes my father role as a scalper.

      • G(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 2:45 pm

        I just get tired of “news organizations” being promotional pundits. He’s a likeable guy, but not an Oracle. The numbers are what the numbers are.

  9. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:34 pm

    PT Raised:

    BRCM – from $30 to $34 @ Caris & Co. Buy
    MCD – from $62 to $63 @ Wedbush Morgan. Outperform

  10. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:39 pm

    Sitting out this dance as planned, for now.

    Have you noticed there is usually one time during the day when the trading opportunity you waited for arises? You’re able to risk a fraction of the capital you might already have on the table, with greater expectation of reward. Lie in wait- a sniper with a cup of coffee.

  11. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:55 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/SPX-Upwards-Channel

    don’t know if its a legit chart but lets see what happens today.

    Thanks to Jesse’s Cafe Americain for a similar chart.

    You can auto refresh these charts to keep an eye on them if you so desire.

  12. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:56 pm

    I just find it interesting that all of Ben’s sponsors are standing behind him despite rape allegations and a civil lawsuit, whereas sponsors threw out Michael Phelps like yesterday’s garbage for smoking marijuana, when we know that something like 40 percent of Americans now smoke or have smoked marijuana, and something like 70 percent of Americans believe that marijuana should be decriminalized, sold legally and taxed.

    Partying with your friends versus raping a female. Wow. We sure are one backwards-assed hypocritical society, aren’t we?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 2:13 pm

      shark- You’re right. I won’t mention any names, but there are many well-known politicians accused of rape still in office (and still revered).

    • gdiman(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 2:19 pm

      “I just find it interesting that all of Ben’s sponsors are standing behind him despite rape allegations and a civil lawsuit, whereas sponsors threw out Michael Phelps like yesterday’s garbage for smoking marijuana, when we know that something like 40 percent of Americans now smoke or have smoked marijuana, and something like 70 percent of Americans believe that marijuana should be decriminalized, sold legally and taxed.”

      I don’t think Ben’s event was photographed. Innocent until proven guilty kind of thing.

    • Ad(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 2:19 pm

      ‘Partying with your friends versus raping a female. Wow. We sure are one backwards-assed hypocritical society, aren’t we?’

      Amen to that Sharkie…

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 2:25 pm

        Oh, you mean Kobe syndrome. If you make enough cash for the corporate team then it get’s swept under the rug. Swimmers don’t make enough money and they don’t have a corporate team and accompanying lawyers and PR snakes.

    • Grym(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 3:21 pm

      “Partying with your friends versus raping a female. Wow. We sure are one backwards-assed hypocritical society, aren’t we?”

      Well, I guess it only to be expected of anyone using the government as a role model. They’re raping the country and partying with their friends.

  13. bobj(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 1:59 pm

    Dear Mrs Gold:
    I’m afraid I’m considering divorce. I’ve tried, I really have. Over the last few years I’ve invested a lot of time and money in this relationship but you just don’t want to treat me fairly. You tease me by going up in price and you look very attractive. But when I lift the covers in the morning I see what I’m really in bed with — something that appears better than it really is. When you go up in price by 1% it seems the Canadian dollar goes up by 1.5% so I lose. If you drop in price by 1.5%, the Canadian dollar only seems to drop by 1% so I lose. If I didn’t lift the covers and only looked at you in American dollars you would retain your attractiveness and we could carry on, but it would be based on a lie.

    I know, I know. I could invite $CAD:$USD into the bed as well and hedge the dollar but I don’t know whether it is worth the effort at this time. And with my luck, you two would talk when I was in the bathroom and somehow I would end up being screwed by both of you.

    I know the timing of my last purchase wasn’t ideal in March but you are up 2.6% but in Canadian dollars I’m down 9%. I just don’t see why I should go on. I hope your relationship with others works out better than with me.
    BobJ

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 2:07 pm

      BobJ- You need to find a good lawyer and hide your assets before mailing that letter.

      • Les(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 2:09 pm

        LOL – I thought he might have already had practice in writing such letters.

        Maybe he is a lawyer 😉

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          July 24, 2009 at 2:18 pm

          “Maybe he is a lawyer ;)”

          You’re probably right. He’s already changed his name from BobG to BobJ.

          • bobj(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 2:38 pm

            “Maybe he is a lawyer ;)”

            No, just some poor schmuck (sp) that thought he could make a dollar on gold.

            “You’re probably right. He’s already changed his name from BobG to BobJ.”
            2nd_ave:
            I don’t know what you are getting at. I believe since the start a few years ago I’ve been BobJ, never BobG!

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 2:41 pm

            Okay Bob, we know you’re dead serious, but if you are married to Mrs GOLD (Mrs. G) and you POST as BobJ, then the JOKE is you changed your name….GET IT???

            Come on, lighten up and THINK.

          • bobj(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 2:43 pm

            Craig, I admit that it went right over my head.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 2:48 pm

            That’s OK, man. The action in the markets this week has definitely been over my head.

          • Craig(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 2:51 pm

            That’s okay Bob! Just yesterday i was glad to not live in the bay area with high bridges….I feel for you. I could jump from the Tacoma Narrows but they charge a $4 toll and I can’t afford it.

            In times like these we all have to keep our sense of humor!

          • MarkW(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 2:56 pm

            Craig- Oh..now I get it. “High Bridges”. Jeez, good thing I’m moving to cash before my computer is taken away for TUI.

          • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 2:42 pm

            Just a joke- Mrs. Gold would imply BobG, no? 😉

  14. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:07 pm

  15. rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:12 pm

    Yesterday I wrote –
    “I had a stop on my MSFT at 25.25 that didn’t get filled at the close. I had purchased these shares at 22.46 a few days back. I canceled my stop order and added another 300 at 23.38 after hours.”
    What I learned yesterday is that sell stops are not the almighty protection of capital. MSFT closed at around 25.50 yesterday but after hours it went way down after earnings announcement. Since my stop at 25.25 was only good during regular business hours the order didn’t get filled. However, if I had not acted on canceling the order it would have executed at whatever price it was at the open. What if the opening price was $7.00? Instead I bought a few more shares after hours because I felt the sell off was a little overdone. After the open this morning I waited for 23.75 and sold all of the shares including the shares bought at 22.46.
    I am back to cash having sold around 8 stocks for some decent gains over the past 3 weeks and am only holding some SLV. I believe as others have pointed out that the Fed needs to inject some fear so they can sell the bonds and keep a lid on the rates they have to pay.

  16. mbernold(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:15 pm
  17. calvino(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:15 pm

    Bill, I have been with you since your first year and I admire your stands. I never think of your trading as scalping and I am in and out of positions based on technical factors as well. I do not like being glued to the monitor, but as you have said, this is trading now. I know it is us against them. Maybe I should have defined scalping to mean pinging a bid to sniff out the size of the order and then front running the order for five minutes and then getting out. This is what I want to stop. This completely overstates the liquidity that is available in the market and why I think this is a danger. When those machines are shut off, where is the floor and how many more positions will be liquidated out from investors. Respectfully.

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 2:25 pm

      calvino, we are both in the same camp fighting the same people. I wish all of us here believed the same.

      You know, when I first started this blog over 5 years ago, people would write to say that I was a bit feisty. Well, now you know why. I didn’t rise to the corner office of the stock exchange tower penthouse without recognizing the enemy. The public is being ripped every way possible. The HB&B umbrella must be shredded, and the capital markets made fair for all of us who put capital at risk. Compensation to a banker who takes no risk is a sick joke on society.

  18. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:20 pm

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SHSH&p=D&yr=0&mn=

    SHSH, scanning for volume this morning. Found this tinsy winsy money losing miner who’s 50 MA just crossed above the 200 MA. This appears to have garnered some attention.

    It’s a penny stock (boo hiss) but has been a sound laggard and I’m looking for laggards who will be sold by unscrupulous managers to greedy investors on the back of any action that may occur in gold this summer.

    A 2 year chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SHSH&p=D&yr=2&mn=

    I’ll wait for daddy Bernanke to pull the rug on the POG next week first.

  19. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:25 pm
  20. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:28 pm

    AMZN – target, estimates increased at Barclays to $83 from $76. 2009 and 2010 EPS estimates lifted to $1.75 from $1.70 and to $2.22 from $2.10, respectively. Maintain Equal Weight rating.

    AMZN – target increased at Bernstein to $90. Margins are growing despite decelerating North American sales. Market Perform rating.

    BRCM – Downgraded at JMP to Market Underperform. $25 price target. Recovery momentum will likely peak this quarter.

    BRCM – target, estimates raised at Barclays to $30 from $24 as 2Q results showed revenue above expectations. 2009 and 2010 ESP estimates lifted to $0.96 from $0.65 and to $1.36 from $1.12, respectively. Maintain Equal Weight rating.

    ECA – target raised at Goldman to $54 from $52 to reflect lower debt levels, improved capital efficiency, and greater credit for improvements in the Horn River Basin and other resource plays. Maintained Neutral rating.

    JNPR – Upgraded at Goldman to Buy from Neutral. The co. has some of the best long term growth fundamentals in CommTech as it has over 70% exposure to the high growth service provider routing market, share gains in the $15 billion Ethernet switch market, and a benign competitive and pricing environment. Increased it target price to $29 from $24

    JNPR – target raised at Credit Suisse to $24 from $18 following improved visibility and valuation. Maintained Neutral rating.

  21. Hallvardo(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    With the tremendous buying pressure yesterday, as the market broke higher, and all the money coming in from the sideline, is there still enough gun powder left for this bull to continue for long?

    Just a thought…

  22. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    I was wondering if anyone did a statistical breakdown by day-of-week. Friday’s seem like a good day to sleep late.

  23. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 2:58 pm

    Dip buying not going well today on the 5 minute chart so I’ll try and average down a bit. Overall, this is still a pretty small position

  24. Luggie(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    Hi All – This one just keeps going up with the excitment of a significant deposit under the belt in early phases of drilling. Good management, good geology and in Wyo. where normal people still run things. Probably should take the gains and move on but….. Happy Trading

  25. salty(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:07 pm

    I’ve been watching and reading but not commenting much lately but thanks to those of you who are.

    fyi- sold 1/3 of slw and 1/2 bac. I’m feeling a little nervous although recognize the market can, and now likely will :(, head higher.
    s

  26. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    Hmmmm, right on time we see UUP ($USD) starting to inch higher….

    Afterall, we have a treasury auction to scalp next week….

  27. Tony Aloisio(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:12 pm

    Would someone be kind enough to explain to me why Shoppers (SC) has dropped 10% in value in the last three days since reporting. Not only did they report strong sales and net profit numbers but matched analyst’s estimates.

    The company has maintained a historical P/E of 24 over the last seven years which should give them a price now of almost $59 (Can $). The only thing I can think of is that the market is returning them to their 2008 P/E of 18.

    At any rate I bought more as the stock fell, I like this company and want to own it long term.

    Am I missing something?

    Tony

    • ANN(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 5:16 pm

      I wouldn’t attach much significance to P/E ratios given the outright hoaxes passed off these days as the “E” part. It was run up hard from about the end of May, right around the time oil was breaking down. Perhaps coincidentally – cough – before the runup there was some mighty favourable press in a major CDN business publication touting SC as undervalued. If you look at its performance around last October, it actually did hold up better than most issues so I think it’s a high quality company and you shouldn’t feel bad about investing in it, but in this nasty market you’re likely better off adopting a short term trader’s mentality vs. buy&hold because HB&B has other plans for your money than allowing you to keep it.

      • Tony Aloisio(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 6:59 pm

        Thank you for your thoughts. I tend to believe in these financial statements, however I do appreciate what you are saying in regards to “E” in general now a days.

        This stock ran up for no apparent reason from the first of June till the beginning of July and has tanked since, the only change is there reporting excellend sales and profits and saying that the next half of the year will be tougher. I can only assume everyone already has that priced in, wouldn’t they?

        I tend to forecast very conservatively and so I have the next two quarters down 15% each for net profit and it still leaves me with a price of $58.75.

        As far as short or long, I am a typical amatuer investor absolutely bone tired of my stops being kicked only to watch the stock fly back up to new heights for me to buy back in at. I am now using stops only in my head instead of actually placing them, then I am the only one that knows where they are.

        Tony

    • yaba(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 7:24 pm

      Maybe this would explain the drop in SP of SC.

      Cost-lowering drug reform expected to hit Shoppers
      Ontario proposal, set for implementation as early as this fall, would reduce funding to pharmacies
      MARINA STRAUSS

      00:00 EDT Thursday, July 23, 2009
      RETAILING REPORTER

      Proposed drug reforms in Ontario could pinch the bottom line of Shoppers Drug Mart Corp. and other pharmacies – and eventually have a ripple effect on drugstores across the country.

      The Ontario government quietly introduced proposals this month that could reduce funding it provides to pharmacies while promoting new ways of pricing and distributing drugs in a bid to lower provincial drug costs.

      Yesterday, Shoppers, the country’s largest pharmacy chain, flagged the reforms as ones which “may have an adverse impact on the company’s business, sales and profitability,” while releasing its second-quarter results, which were respectable amid the recessionary climate. The proposed reforms could be implemented as early as this fall.

      Jurgen Schreiber, chief executive officer of Shoppers, told analysts it’s too early to assess the impact. But he said Shoppers also wants to trim pharmacy costs, so he welcomes the discussions with the Ontario government over the next month to find “joint solutions.”

      He hinted that Shoppers may be forced to reduce its Ontario work force of 25,000 to find savings. “If it comes to reductions, we don’t know at this point in time … we have to be able to take steps to reduce the costs. We hope we don’t have to do that.”

      Full Globe and Mail article
      http://tinyurl.com/m6w5x4

  28. salty(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:18 pm

    I’m building my list of stocks to watch as I expect a slump right across the board shortly. A few days ago someone mentioned Bill was building a short-list of PM miners…has he posted it yet? If so, would someone please provide the comment #. Thanks.

    In the tech sector, I’ve still got my aapl and watching wfr, brcm and jnpr for a place to start building a position.
    s

  29. Luggie(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:43 pm

    Hi All – Just noted Paulson & Co. hold 4.4% of Kinross (~63mm oz./Au) and 11.2% of new producer Centamin (~13mm oz./Au). Nice to have a decent fund backing my flyers and expect more development work by CEE will bear fruit in vicinity of the Valley of the Kings (King Tut’s treasure chest). Happy Trading

  30. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:55 pm

    Locking in gains, will reload on lower prices. Maybe we’ll get some selling into close and lower prices next week?

  31. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    http://boston.bizjournals.com/boston/stories/2009/

    Can business be so good (Goldman Sachs raised their S&P earnings target from 40 to 52 for 2009, which must come now or never) when companies are walking away from office buildings and shopping malls?

    Anybody care to comment?

    • jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 4:05 pm

      Didn’t Bernanke state clearly in his testimony earlier this week that he was concerned about commercial real estate? There are also many articles from mainstream sources for months discussing the growing number of probable loan defaults, bankruptcies, and impending foreclosures on commercial real estate.

      So, if commercial rents which are falling and vacancies which are rising mean anything, business can’t be that good.

    • photogray(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 4:16 pm

      Must be why SRS is going down in price. I guess I don’t get the “inverse” relationship as well as I should.
      FD, uw SRS and thinking of buying more. how irrational!

    • alberio(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 4:17 pm

      Last summer in Calgary, Alberta (oil and gas)we had a vacancy rate of less than 1%. Current projections for the 2nd Q of 2010 are, wait for it…20%!
      New projects are continuing to be built even though rates will be plunging in the near future because “it will turn around”. This is why the average guy (me) sees what I think is obvious yet the market continues to march forward, it makes my head hurt and remain completely confused.

    • Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 4:55 pm

      Only the big REITs are getting a shot at TARP funds. Regional and community banks are rejecting all comers as those 5-year baloons expire. This is resulting in either default or private equity deals at 50%+ discounts to market value for commercial properties. All sectors overbuilt. Leverage is dead but for how long?

      I know of a well located office building 2/3 full with weak credit tenants built for $3m in 2005 and sold for $1m in 2009 to a member of a bank board with 65% loan-to-value. Arm’s length and not a distressed sale as the seller was wealthy. Seller assumed real estate was going lower and dumped it at a cool 67%+ loss after paying interest on a mostly empty shell for 3+ years.

      That’s the cold hard truth.

    • JimG(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 5:17 pm

      S&P earnings from Chart of the Day:

      http://tinyurl.com/m4a2xv

      Chart of the Day
      “Today, several companies (i.e. Ford, eBay and AT&T) reported better than expected earnings and as a result the stock market rallied on the news. While some companies have reported better than expected earnings for Q2 2009, others have struggled. Today’s chart provides some perspective on the current earnings environment by focusing on 12-month, as reported S&P 500 earnings. Today’s chart illustrates how earnings are expected (38% of S&P 500 companies have reported for Q2 2009) to have declined over 98% since peaking in Q3 2007, making this by far the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). In fact, real earnings have dropped to a record low and if current estimates hold, Q3 2009 will see the first 12-month period during which S&P 500 earnings are negative.”

      • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 6:21 pm

        JimG, we need to focus on S&P earnings — even if they can be manufactured via under-provisions for losses, overstating inventories, and so forth. We need to analyze it by industry to see the boom that GS tells us is happening. Because, if, as and when it doesn’t materialize in early October — and most companies realize this by mid-September — then the jig is up.

  32. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 3:58 pm
  33. yvrapx(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 4:05 pm

    Something to keep Shark awake with…………..
    Good exchange between former GS IB and IMF Economist

  34. Bev(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 4:20 pm

    Some highlights from Karl Denninger’s report

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1260-F
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    – card balances and available credit have both been significantly curtailed.

    This is the 900lb Gorilla that nobody is talking about this morning, which is why I want to highlight it and spend most of this Ticker talking about it.

    As everyone who follows the market and economy knows, consumer spending is about 70% of GDP. No consumer, no growth – period.

    – Consumer spending cannot increase materially as wages are stagnant, capacity utilization and hours worked are in the tank and earnings power is being consumed by desperate attempts to stay out of bankruptcy.

    This was reflected in Microsoft’s results last night – it was not only their commercial lines of business (server software and services) that missed badly, the miss also extended to their consumer lines of business. For the first time in the firm’s history Windows sales declined on a revenue basis – a clear indication that consumers simply are not spending on discretionary purchases.

    -The stock market is pricing in not just a “recovery” but 5-7% GDP growth over the next year! That is simply insane:……..if you’re long the market……..
    Beware that position as all the data from the credit-granting firms, whether they be big banks or credit card companies, strongly suggest that we’re going to be lucky to see a positive annualized GDP in either the 3rd or 4th quarter at all, and there is every reason to believe that if we’re not negative in Q4 we will be in 2010.

    The market is likely to react very badly when it figures this out, and reality will eventually gob-smack us in this regard.

  35. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 4:22 pm

    This is not news per se, but I like the way a lot of the issues were presented. Love to see this kind of thing put before more citizens who know very well they have been screwed but aren’t quite sure how.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/ratigan-spit

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 4:39 pm

      I’m happy to see Ratigan being put to good use.

      Is there any suggestion that people are tuning into what he has to say?

    • salty(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 4:43 pm

      Thanks jm for that — perhaps Dylan and Jon will have some influence and get more people aware of the duping of America.
      s
      btw I don’t think we Canucks are getting the straight good either — we’ve got a GS transplant running the show up here as well

  36. teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 4:24 pm

    Ok, I know its really crazy but I actually think AIG might be a really good investment here. Their CEO Ed Liddy commented on how there is an excellent chance they will pay back loans (I put little stock in this, though). A large portion of their CDS exposure is gone. The markets have gone up 45% since March so their equity positions that were at huge unrealized losses at q1 will be marked up. They’ve reduced a ton of their expenses and have stated they need no more money from the govt (again, little stock…). They’re spinning off 2 insurance divisions in IPOs later this year/next year. These divisions are huge from what I’ve been reading and while i’m not sure what % the current shareholders will get from those spinoffs, even if they get some it could be worth far more than AIG’s current $1.6 Billion market cap. The govt owns 80% of the company so say s/h get 20%. I believe 20% of the two spinoffs could be worth far more than this. Even if their core remaining company is worth $0, the sum of the parts from spinoffs could be worth significantly more than the total is worth right now.

    I’m probably way out of my element here, but thought I would share my thoughts with everyone.

    • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 4:35 pm

      I don’t think you are “way out of your element here”, teamfuego. I’ve had similar thoughts about AIG after listening to all the testimony and reading up on the subject. There’s some prize plums in that company’s assets and there has been quite a bit of clamoring by competitors to get at them. Like you, though, I wonder if shareholders will benefit out of it’s slaughter – after all, it’s a sacrificial slaughter, right?

      • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 4:39 pm

        The two spinoffs alone are worth a ton of money. If shareholders retain a 20% stake then its definitely worth a lot more than the company is worth right now.

        It’s a lottery ticket but I think the investment idea merits some consideration.

        • salty(118083 comments)-
          July 24, 2009 at 4:49 pm

          Since I seem to be ‘chatty-cathy’ today….

          I think when considering AIG (or any other company) it’s important to distinguish the company from the stock. All you guys and gals know this, but I have to constantly remind myself. The balance sheet is one thing; the price can be quite another. We’ve seen that in spades this year and I don’t doubt we’ll be re-visiting that before the year is out once again.

          But the question still remains and one I can’t answer — When, if at all, is it most prudent to get back in more fully? I’m about 80% cash right now and as patience isn’t my strong suite, I’m forcing myself to get away from the computer for longer time frames. I’ve got to for I’ll make even more dumb moves.
          s

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 4:59 pm

            RE:>I’m forcing myself to get away from the computer for longer time frames. I’ve got to for I’ll make even more dumb moves.

            ditto here salty. I do the ironing and cleaning during amateur hour and watch dvd’s to take my mind off these days when I shouldn’t be touching the account.

            As for getting back in, I’m interested in what Bill considers fair game. Gold going to get some breathing room before GS and JPM throttle it again? Great, will look for some unloved and unbought PM miners who’ll be loved and used by the industry and investing community this summer.

            Was playing with currencies, but have backed off since Bill and one or two others suggests they’ll hold the buck in place. Waiting for a real crash.

        • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
          July 24, 2009 at 5:18 pm

          “It’s a lottery ticket but I think the investment idea merits some consideration.”

          Sadly most investments these days feel like buying a lottery ticket. :( But we can hardly complain about the opportunities that have been available – you’ve just needed a strong stomach through this crisis. To wit…

          How about an investment bank at the height of an investment banking meltdown? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&…

          How about a U.S. carmaker at the height of a national auto bankruptcy/consumer spending crisis? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=F&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&d

          How about some junk bonds during a credit crunch/financial crisis and a time of historically high default rates? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hyg&p=D&yr=2&mn=0

          Who knows… Maybe it’s an opportunity of a lifetime in commercial real estate right now, for those with a strong stomach? I know it’s been much on my mind recently. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=drw&p=D&yr=2&mn=0

          More likely though, it’s private interests that are going to make out best in this real estate crash. Like these guys: http://triangle.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2

          And, in a smaller way, this couple who “made out like bandits” :) http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/wir

          fortune favors the bold?

          As a G&M piece says today, “there’s no free lunch” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inve

          • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 5:35 pm

            Mack –

            This is a good article on AIG:
            http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124592621562052981

            American International Group Inc.’s annual meeting on Tuesday will be the first with the U.S. government as the controlling shareholder, but almost certainly not the last.

            Many financial firms that took bailout money paid back billions this month. Yet even with the deal announced Thursday to give the Federal Reserve Bank of New York stakes valued at $25 billion in two of AIG’s foreign life-insurance units — a move that will reduce AIG’s tab — it remains unclear when or whether taxpayers will be made whole.

            Washington is exerting broad influence over AIG as it tries to lay the groundwork for repayment. Also, three trustees who oversee the nearly 80% government ownership of AIG will be at the meeting. Their six handpicked director candidates, who will form the majority on the new 11-member board, will be elected.

            Already, some of the six have joined with some current board members on an informal CEO search committee that is identifying possible candidates, say people familiar with the matter. AIG Chairman and Chief Executive Edward Liddy, installed by the government in September, has indicated he wants to leave.

            Directors would like to see new leadership in place as soon as possible, says one person familiar with the matter. The new board must also pick an independent chairman, probably from within its ranks, and may take that step before it finds a CEO.

            AIG will likely take years to pay back the government — three to five years, Mr. Liddy estimated to Congress in May, or longer if the economy worsens. It’s not certain it will be able to.

            The company has borrowed $43 billion from the New York Fed as of Wednesday, and the Treasury Department has invested $40 billion in AIG. The Fed has poured another $44 billion into two entities that bought up toxic AIG assets. So taxpayers are currently on the hook for $127 billion out of the $173 billion in aid the government has made available to AIG.

            As for the New York Fed debt, the $25 billion deal struck Thursday, which AIG and the Fed had basically committed to in March, will cut it to about $18 billion. The deal involves foreign life-insurance units that are moving toward public offerings starting next year, and the Fed will get the first dollars from those sales. But it could take months or years of selling off shares on the open market before the Fed gets fully paid for its investment.

            Another deal is pending to hand over to the Fed bonds valued at up to $8.5 billion backed by life-insurance policies, which could cut the Fed debt further, to $9 to $10 billion, if AIG’s Fed borrowing doesn’t rise or decrease.

            AIG’s debt to the New York Fed could rise, however, if economic conditions deteriorate and AIG needs more help. Worsening economic conditions could also hurt the value of AIG’s investments and its units.

            It’s unclear whether the life-insurance units and bonds backed by policies that AIG is handing over will turn out to be worth what AIG and the Fed are valuing them at, and how long it will take to turn them into cash.

            In addition it’s not clear how much AIG’s stake in the units will be worth after the Fed gets its $25 billion and whether there will be enough to repay the rest of the Fed debt and the Treasury’s $40 billion investment.

            CreditSights, a debt-research firm, says its ballpark estimate is that the two life-insurance units are worth $40 to $55 billion, though valuations could rise if markets recover. That could mean that after the Fed got its $25 billion, AIG could have stakes worth $15 to $30 billion left over and possibly billions more.

            AIG also has other assets it can use to repay taxpayers, particularly its global property/casualty insurance operations, in which it is also plans to sell a stake that would likely be worth billions. It can also sell off its domestic life-insurance operations, though the financial crisis has battered that industry, including many potential buyers.

            As for whether the New York Fed’s $44 billion bet on the toxic assets pays off, that’s largely a matter of waiting to see if they end up being worth more than the discounted price the Fed paid. That could take years to determine, though the bet is currently about $3.8 billion in the red.

          • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 6:13 pm

            this is an interesting point in this article:

            “CreditSights, a debt-research firm, says its ballpark estimate is that the two life-insurance units are worth $40 to $55 billion, though valuations could rise if markets recover. That could mean that after the Fed got its $25 billion, AIG could have stakes worth $15 to $30 billion left over and possibly billions more.”

          • davefairtex(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 6:18 pm

            Mackinaw – you’re conflating two types of things here, trades and investments.

            Buying a property is an investment, because getting out of a property is difficult, and you typically have to hold for a while to recoup your trade costs.

            Buying F, GS, or your junk bond fund, now that’s a trade. You can get out almost instantly, and the trade is practically free. You have some great examples of good trades.

            But regarding real estate – a tradable bottom may not yet have occurred. If we are replaying the depression, we’re only just getting started. If you’ve read up on the period, you know there were alternating periods of hope and then despair as that hope was crushed. Everyone was optimistic, buying the dips, until the successive mini-crashes crushed the life out of their hope over a period of three years. And that was when the bottom arrived.

            Does it feel like that’s happened here yet? Not to me.

            If you are suggesting the multigenerational debt collapse will be over in one year amid a flurry of Fed money printing, well I have to say, that just feels like a replay of that hope and optimism those investors from the 29 crash were sucked into. What did they say: the dumb money lost in 1929, the smart money lost in 1930, and the really smart money was crushed in 1931.

            I’m not sure it’s yet time to be bold – with investments, I mean.

          • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 7:13 pm

            The dusty old buzzards sweeping in to carry off the last morsels of AIG aren’t going to be very interested in rewarding shareholders for their diligent effort, bedtime prayers, sweat and tears etc., when it comes time to “rescue” the taxpayer from congressional “oversight”.

            I admit to not having done any DD on this, my mind was made up when the GS funneling conduit realization became apparent.

  37. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    Profit taking happening. Think we can all smell danger. These two are under water sufficiently that I’ll wait to see if gold plays a better tune in the coming weeks.

  38. David(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 5:18 pm

    The limit order I placed last night was triggered this morning at $0.1 for the August $7.50 SLW puts I sold a few weeks ago at $0.85. While these puts will most likely expire worthless, I am trying to make sure that I sell puts only when I have enough cash as a collateral, and so now I wanted to free up that cash (by covering these puts) in case another opportunity comes along (the absolute gain I would get from waiting for these $0.1 per share turn into $0.0 per share over the next month is really small and so it is not worth “beating the dead horse”)

    • Les(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 5:26 pm

      RE:>(the absolute gain I would get from waiting for these $0.1 per share turn into $0.0 per share over the next month is really small and so it is not worth “beating the dead horse”)

      completely understandable. I remember Bill rationalising likewise.

      put in a bid for an small opening round of TLT at 90.50

      I’m outta here. bon weekend.

  39. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 5:37 pm

    IMHO.

    • Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 6:55 pm

      Probably next week on successful news that a cobbled-together monetary policy and stupendous Treasury auction have successfully resolved all global economic woes.

  40. Bev(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 5:55 pm

    Amzn down 8%
    MSFT down 9% heavy volume
    AAPL pressing resistance [upper BB]

    QQQQ [daily] over extended. RSI +70

    http://tinyurl.com/mlxc68

    QQQQ [weekly] nearing over resistance
    – broken support 1qtr 2008
    – 2yr down trend line [green]
    – 50% Fib retracement of 2yr downtrend
    – 200 MA

    http://tinyurl.com/na2xx2

    • qx4(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 7:17 pm

      qqqq killed me already, i covered most of it. so now you say it’ll die? 😉
      i learned the hard way that the old sayings: “mkt can stay irrational longer than your staying solvent” and “good traders know how to make money, great traders know how to take a loss” are oh so true.
      i am definitely not a great trader: trying to wrestle with the market to get my money back, how stupid is that? it’s like trying to lift a strong, nervous bull and throw it in the air with my 70kg frame.
      lost >50% of ytd gain, no trivial amount, in 2 weeks.
      now the question is: have i learned something for it? i tend to blame the extraordinary situation (rocketing market day after day) rather than me. i also tend to blame the bad luck (if only msft would have reported when intc reported, i would be fine!!!), but all of it is whining, i know. i feel for tim knight at slopeofhope. i am practically in the same boat, on the verge of insanity!

  41. Grym(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    Timmy is claiming the government has received a 23% return on their investment in Goldman Sachs.

    Too many may believe this crap!

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 6:27 pm

      Grym,

      We all saw Teflon Timmy’s tax returns. So, after he departs Treasury, where he is earning per year what the Goldman Sachs exec managers earn in about three days, where do you think he’s headed after “government service”?

      Any bets?

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 12:17 pm

        ‘We all saw Teflon Timmy’s tax returns. So, after he departs Treasury, where he is earning per year what the Goldman Sachs exec managers earn in about three days, where do you think he’s headed after “government service”?’

        Bill,

        Perhaps the Tax Consulting Service for GS execs?

        Such a thankless job. I understand that in the interests of “no conflicts of interest” they are required to put their investments into a blind trust. To sell all would be a tremendous tax bite so it is only fair the tax be deferred (until it is forgotten). Timmy will probably not have a problem with this.

        Isn’t it remarkable we have people who are willing to give of themselves to act as “public servants”?

        The account books should appear on the NYT best seller list under fiction.

  42. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 6:32 pm

  43. westcoaster(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 7:14 pm

    Continuing my thread about outside the box entrepreneurship ideas for America, I came across this

    Browsing Ryan Kruger’s discussion of earnings and what they mean this AM arrives at the story of a little shoe company in the desert, just bought out by Amazon. They are web based, entrepreneurial, to the point that they offer each trainee $2000 to leave after they have finished the training program, if they don’t want to stay. Wrap your head around that.

    Here’s the full article and shoes are on page 3

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/UPS-MSFT-AMZN-

  44. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 7:21 pm
  45. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 7:55 pm

  46. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 7:58 pm

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 8:05 pm

      LOL! Not as chancy for a restful weekend….SKF at 37.
      Also holding TLT and VXX.

      Traded FAS all day and did alright. Beats yesterday, that’s for sure.

      Let’s see now…what’s on tap for Music Friday…..

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 8:08 pm

        Craig- Yeah, man. Hoping I don’t wake up Monday morning feeling like I’d walk a mile for a Camel.

        • MarkW(118083 comments)-
          July 24, 2009 at 11:35 pm

          2nd, Craig- (added to ERY @ 17.70 at the close..to 30%)

          Gentleman,
          All of us volunteered for this mission. Right now the odd don’t look good, but that’s why we are here. Recent intell suggest we may be surrounded. But we’ve all been here before and know how to get out of a tight situation. So rest up this weekend, gentleman. Monday morning we head north and expect heavy fire along the way…

          Oh, and if things get really dicey, CP has his Bell stocked with sandwiches and coffee, ready for extraction.

          Ahh, Friday… http://tinyurl.com/crv93w

          • Illini(118083 comments)-
            July 24, 2009 at 11:52 pm

            Fine …… but the guy looks like he didn’t even wash his hair for most of his pictures.

          • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 12:37 am

            Kill the Wabbit!!!

          • Les(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 8:10 am

            RE:>Oh, and if things get really dicey, CP has his Bell stocked with sandwiches and coffee, ready for extraction.

            Mark I’d rather be taking the offensive. To have deep pockets like Uncle Sam and bomb GS back to the stone age.

            And so steps Colonel CP out of his chopper aptly named “death from above”…

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHx2R49Bots

            VB – NO, we were not all born in the 50’s:

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNT7uZf7lew&playnex

          • kaimu(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 10:13 am

            ALOHA !!

            Les posted – “To have deep pockets like Uncle Sam and bomb GS back to the stone age.”

            Now you know why Rothschild said what he said 230 years ago …

            Or maybe what Rodney Dangerfield said, “Marriage is like a gold mine. My wife gets the gold and I get the shaft!”

      • campeagle1969(118083 comments)-
        July 24, 2009 at 8:31 pm

        Craig,This tune works for me.

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxvlI4N9h6o&feature

  47. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 8:03 pm

    Start new position: inverse ratio (2:1 puts:calls) straddle SEP 90 puts and SEP 102 calls @ 3.7 credit. Breakeven at expiration between 88.01-105.94 with slight positive delta

  48. nemo(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 8:47 pm
    • kaimu(118083 comments)-
      July 25, 2009 at 6:23 am

      ALOHA !!

      Nemo … Good e-mail letter! It speaks to the frustrations of living in a country where the truth is forbidden, covered by a thousand agendas, both hidden and exposed.

      It is interesting that the author calls OBAMA a Marxist. As I have posted before my uninitiated relationship with Senator Ensign from Nevada was summed up in his words describing me as “Marxist subversive”. So in this Alice In Wonderland of the POLITBANK the Patriots are not Patriots and the Marxist are not Marxists, everything has been reversed by the elected to cause more and more division and confusion within our ranks. In the case of Senator Ensign, I am not the one cheating on my wife. Just what is it with politicians and their peckers? Can’t they keep it in their pants for four years? I guess we will have to attribute that behavior as the “euphoria of power”! I believe OBAMA and the REP and DEMS have morphed into “Crony Socialism”. Its all “Crony” once government get this big. The cornerstone of my politics is MONEY … If anyone has yet to figure that out then you should not be voting. Its not what you think … You can NEVER have an honest government until our monetary system is honest. That is the MONEY part I have been speaking to for years and years. Any attempt to CHANGE without changing the current monetary system is just a band-aid. You cannot expect a corrupt monetary system to produce anything but a corrupt market, enabled by corrupt politics. The global markets are only different in “degrees” of corruption.

      On an upbeat note-My wife and I met up with Casey(Mr. Tao) and his oldest son at our farm and later we all went to the Kalapana Village Cafe for lunch. We talked about everything from Iowa police to mental health to Tao and orchids and XBox … We did not mention one word about “politics and money”! Later we went to the “Painted Church” which is just down the street from where we live. The Hawaiian version of the Sistine Chapel … Kalapana is tied to the story of Father Damien when he was here in 1864. Of course he went onto be World famous on the island of Molokai. I stop in there every week or so, as it is open every day, just to touch something from the distant past, something of community and deep commitment. You just don’t find that sort of thing anywhere, not even the jewelry department at WalMart …

      Church link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_of_the_Sea_Paint

      • Grym(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 12:34 pm

        “In the case of Senator Ensign, I am not the one cheating on my wife. Just what is it with politicians and their peckers?”

        After screwing a whole country for so long, they must come to believe it is simply their right :-)

  49. David(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 9:16 pm

    Yet another up day for S&P — amazing! The profit-taking I expected to see today after yesterday’s madness only happened in the morning, while I was sleeping. Despite my large purchases of SRS yesterday, my portfolio did gain today thanks to my large holdings in UNG and ESLR rising on a flat day. But if a push to 1000 materializes next week in S&P, then I suspect my portfolio will finally start declining due to my large positions in SKF, SRS and short FCX. The short bias will be small, but I will be very reluctant to increase it because a larger short bias might affect might night sleep. On the other hand, not having any hedges at all would quickly lead to nightmares, as the traditional “revulsion” phase, with which major bear markets have always ended, did not even start yet. I suppose that’s why the up volume on NYSE is extremely small now — people are just not willing to risk a lot of capital now with so many good expectations already priced in and such a huge downside potential untapped.

  50. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 10:11 pm

    I followed through with my plan and sold 1/2 my longs today.

    Here’s and old favorite for early happy hour
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9muzyOd4Lh8&feature

    vb

    • MarkW(118083 comments)-
      July 25, 2009 at 12:39 am

      Good job VB. Love the song..but for happy hour? How ’bout this… http://tinyurl.com/6kqt6s

      • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 12:48 am

        Nice. Written the year I was born…

        Here’s one for ya…good for a Friday

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN_BDyZrE-0

        Also see http://www.kilroycafe.com/ideas/work/

        • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
          July 25, 2009 at 1:11 am

          Take this job and shove it! Nice one, Knifecatcher.

          A few years after that one, this was a bit of an anthem…

          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW-uclpPivE

          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 1:18 am

            And I remember this one well from the ’70’s also:

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKhN6pAnFCk

          • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 2:06 am

            Hi Mackinaw!

            Love that one !!

            PS – just got back in and watching them all now!

            Are we all born in the 50’s?

          • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 2:12 am

            I remember that one too. Along with this one that my parents wouldn’t let me listen to because it was “communistic”

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_bvT-DGcWw

          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 2:19 am

            Ha. That’s a classic, knifecatcher!

          • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 2:25 am

            knifecatcher, yes, I was told the same. That video is “communistic” (but Funny, IT seems to be more and more like life in the USA today).

            PS Anyone else have problems sleeping in the last year?

          • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 2:34 am

            AMEN vb!
            When I watch it now and hear the line “we don’t need no thought control” it seems particularly relevant. Hate the idiot box and all of the propaganda and messages, but need comcast for the internet…

            KC

          • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 2:37 am
          • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 2:52 am

            Mackinaw- that’s a classic! Friend of mine tacked it on to a psychedelic furs tape he copied for me back in the early 1980’s. Fit right in musically. Funny how a song can take you back over 20 years and make you feel it all over again…

          • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 2:07 am

            remember it well, along with “Let’s here it for the boy.”
            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4UEavSILe4
            Both of which I heard numerous times on the kitchen radio at age 15 while working my first job as a dishwasher in a busy restaurant (for $3.65 an hour…but grateful for the opportunity!)

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 12:52 am

        Grace Slick and the Airplane on the Smothers Brothers Comedy Hour. (Scroll down the left side and click Play.)

        http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/j/jefferson_airpl

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 4:06 am

        Hi Mark,

        Just got to your post after 2 fun hours. I added your video to my facebook #1 spot. Yes, you hit right on but I have to put the white rabbit up there too. I liked so many. I love the music and it soothes the soul after the long week.

        We all need to be a little looser these days. No Doubt, this is some kind of a depression in the world economy.

        GO UNG and Consider FO for the LONG

        Have a great night

        vb

        • MarkW(118083 comments)-
          July 25, 2009 at 4:18 am

          Hey VB- Moving up the dial a little, but talented and poignant none the less.

          http://tinyurl.com/mugkol

          You know how to find me on face book. I’m not good at it but will try to find you now.

  51. Grasshopper(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 10:25 pm

    Interesting take and things to think about from the Kirk Report:

    I absolutely love days like this and it is not because I’m making money hand over first (as I’m clearly not) but rather I think I’ve finally found a solid edge (i.e. being short some unsustainable cherry-picked situations – see today’s short screen for ideas). That’s exciting to me even if these trades don’t pan out quickly or even at all. (As you know from reading me, I can handle being wrong and will admit it without hesitation if that happens.)

    From what I’ve been seeing out there, the S&P appears magnetized to S&P 1,000. In fact, given the current pace, we’ll be at S&P 1100 before the end of next week. So I asked one of the more experienced traders who is very bullish within my mentorship circle to create a list of “things that could go wrong” for the market within the next few weeks. After asking why he should waste his time, he struggled to come up with anything beyond the typical stuff – i.e. market overbought and overdue for a sizable pullback, earnings don’t really support the magnitude of the rally, when earnings season ends there are very few catalysts to drive the market higher, this move is based mostly on short-covering, and there is large-scale performance anxiety enabling stocks that go up big continue to go up big to “unsustainable” prices (at least over the short-term).

    So, I ask you, what do you think can go wrong now in addition to all of these things?

    This is exactly the kind of question that experience suggests that we all should be asking even if we don’t want to. At the same point, those of us sidelined or short need to asking the exact opposite question – What is going to “continue to go right” for Mr. Market this summer and beyond?

    As always, we all have to trade the market we see not the one we hope for or are positioned well to benefit from. Speaking of which, I will readily admit that the market sure feels and looks like it has in the past when it was coming out of a bear market bottom – i.e. fierce gains, no pullbacks to speak of, a false breakdown to shake out nervous longs before a major rally, every little dip is bought aggressively AND the growing perception and confidence that pullbacks will continue to be bought, no weakness even in severe overbought conditions, the return of M&A activity, historical research that shows that after periods of intense momentum like this that the market has a tendency to keep moving higher over various forward time-frames, today’s Dow Theory confirmation (see IYT) and continued skepticism over the rally especially from those who also also aren’t participating in the rally. Does that sound about right to you?

    Beyond these market observations and opinions on both sides of the tape, please remember our task remains the same – to find and exploit low-risk, high-reward situations at all times. For the time being, I’m simply looking for AND finding more attractive setups on the short-side while having a more than a difficult time justifying being long or chasing stocks that have been up nearly every day since earnings season began and which don’t offer what I think are good risk/reward setups now. But, that’s just me.

    Perhaps everything I know and have learned so far is wrong and the only risk out there is being short and sidelined and that chasing the market now is the way to untold riches. Frankly, I hope that is the case as I know far too many people who seriously need this market to rally significantly higher in order just to get back to where they were at this time last year. As an optimist at heart, I’d love for the bull market to return more than anything.

    With that known, for me it simply comes down to where I can find opportunity. Maybe you are finding opportunities are plentiful on the long side and which you consider good risk/reward situations. That’s ok. After all, that’s what makes a market. But, you know where I stand, what I’m doing, and how important it is to keep an open mind considering both sides of this tape.

    I can’t wait to see what’s next!

    • Illini(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 11:41 pm

      I started reading Kirk’s blog when it was mentioned highly in Barron’s several years ago. I have never been a subscriber but there is a lot there anyway. Not as much since he quit posting his monthly trade results and details to non-subscribers, maybe two years ago. He is a breakout finder and momentum chaser which I am usually not. I have slowed down reading his posts with the overall decline in markets and the lack of momentum except down.

      My question is whether any of you dear readers, who may be subscribers, have found good plays from his screens and offerings in this market.

      • jock(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 4:17 am

        Illini –

        I’ve subscribed to Kirk for a few years. Indeed he no longer posts every trade he does. This is because he found it made him risk-averse. He had over 75% of his trades positive (incredible) but was often stopped out, and wasn’t making much on the average winning trade. He does often discuss particularly interesting individual trades.

        Recently, Kirk has developed a raft of fundamental screens, which he views from a technical perspective. His setups are mostly when price moves to extremes in 180 day regression channels, and bounce back towards trend center.

        Interesting that he defines stocks of interest to different types of fundamental buyers, and then looks for technical setups. Surprisingly, almost none of his screens are for shorts. He says he hasn’t found screens that work consistently for the short side.

        He posts and links to a wide range of articles, offer a look into his “toolkit” vis a vis hardware and software. Recently, he has done a few real-time, online Q&A’s which have been good.

        Except for about once a month live chats, there is no conversational give-and-take as in this community. The focus is information exchange. But it’s certainly worth the $50/yr. membership. He has a very lively and eclectic mind.

        • Illini(118083 comments)-
          July 25, 2009 at 4:55 am

          Thanks Jock…..I do remember he was disrupted with a move to Utah because of his wife’s job at a University. I also remember that long ago he had Caribou Coffee (CBOU) as a pick for his wife’s retirement fund. That would have worked out only recently. Before that in 2006 or 7 he did a deep discourse saying he was not satisfied with his recent performance and was reconsidering how much blogging to do, amongst other things.

          I quit looking daily because of information overload and the bear market, which is not favorable to his type of trading it seems. Will keep his blog in mind for the future bull.

  52. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 11:00 pm

    Taken a look today? The exact opposite of March, when almost everything was in the Accumulation Zone.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      July 24, 2009 at 11:24 pm

      “Taken a look today? The exact opposite of March, when almost everything was in the Accumulation Zone.”

      Exactly. Combine this with the fact that the news stories started to extrapolate a very unusual rally even further and you have case when opening a medium-term “long” position very quickly ends in a disaster. It has always been that way during my 3-year observation of the market. Hussman said that major ups and downs in the market are made when people are extrapolating FAR OUT very unusual conditions (such as a major economic recovery and a strong expansion despite a continual deterioration in the 4 key economic indicators: production, sales, income and unemployment). I think such extrapolation is present now.

  53. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 11:19 pm

    Sorry, but when both my wife and I go out, there is often a delay before some of your comments are posted. We only started this system of holding back fairly new people because we were getting spammed. Hope you understand. Once you pass a certain threshold, your comments are automatically approved if you have a valid e-mail address, which the system checks.

  54. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    July 24, 2009 at 11:36 pm

    I though it would be interesting for this web forum to take in the comments of WE Pollock. Good series here.

    http://www.youtube.com/user/wepollock#play/uploads

  55. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 12:15 am

    The week in charts: http://tinyurl.com/ldgsad
    If this doesn’t work you might need to go to his web site and sign-up. Hey, it’s free. Always an interesting lesson.

    Then there is his random thoughts…..
    “Random Thoughts:

    Ps are flat but struggling to go positive as we wind down the week.

    Nasdaq slightly weak. It’ll have to rally soon to make it 13 up
    days in a row.

    Looking ahead to next week:

    I think we’ll finally see the correction next week.

    I know I said that last week, but this week everybody and their
    brother is arguing that the market doesn’t have to correct. So, it
    will.

    Yet again, the nature of that correction will be key.

    If it’s modest and the indices turn right back up, then its game on
    for the bulls (and trend following morons).

    If they sell off hard, then it could get ugly fast.

    As usual, one day at a time.”

  56. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 12:37 am

    That’s what I usually do when acting on instinct.

    Why did I (re)open positions in the ultrashorts at the close?

    (a) Don’t think I saw more than one other post today that indicated buying/adding to short positions.

    (b) Signs of capitulation on a blog which shall remain anonymous.

    (c) After twelve consecutive blacks, scaling into plays on red.

    (d) I think an intentional sell-off will commence, for the sole purpose of accumulating the cash needed for a blow-off top.

    I still think we go higher. But the means will require a minor sell-off. All JMO, of course.

  57. Illini(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 12:58 am

    Here is one from Dodger Stadium. Come to think of it there are more posters here from the Bay Area than Southern Cal, it seems. What gives?

    I saw a game or two at “Chavez Ravine” in 60’s. Before that I remember the old Brooklyn team on b&w TV at the coliseum, where the left field wall was an improvised, tall curtain that nevertheless enabled pop-ups to be homers. I was just a kid. Well ok, a teenager.

    http://www.playingforchange.com/episodes/11/God_Bl

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      July 25, 2009 at 1:17 am

      “Come to think of it there are more posters here from the Bay Area than Southern Cal, it seems. What gives?”

      I can tell you haven’t spent much time in SoCal. People down there don’t have any time. I spent a couple of nights while on the road in 1973 ‘crashing’ in a house with 3 working dudes (that’s the word that comes to mind). I would get up around 830 am, and watch in amazement. They would make instant coffee, eat Pop Tarts while squeezing out the toothpaste, spend 5 minutes each blow drying their hair (this was before blow dryers became standard bathroom equipment). They would then peel off in three different cars. I spent a Saturday afternoon with one of them> get in the car> peel off down the freeway a few exits> meet another dude in another car in a parking lot> say a few words> peel off down the freeway to another exit> meet another dude in another parking lot> say a few words> you get it, right.

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 2:10 am

        “you get it, right?”

        Actually I don’t. lol. What were they doing?

        One of my favorite live performances:

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftEkEXFcQyE

      • Illini(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 3:08 am

        I spent many TDY Gov stints in LA late 1960’s-1980’s, some 2 weeks long. One contractor was Hughes Helicopter in Culver City, now part of Boeing. Close to Venice Beach. Also up to Lockheed in Ventura. Yes, I know the commutes are long. If you want to go to Disney Land its a safari.

        Only one trip to Bay Area around 1968-9. Good one. Went on a trolley ride with my cohort and had a serendipity experience. Sitting across the aisle was an alum I knew from my first college, a small one in Indiana. Quite an experience.

  58. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 12:59 am

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dbshnvztGA

    After a couple of beers, it sounds like ‘You’re only as good as your last trade.’

  59. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 1:21 am
  60. MarkW(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 1:34 am

    Buddy of mine played the snare in this video. Nice stick work by Stevie, btw.

    http://tinyurl.com/dd84kx

  61. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 1:56 am
  62. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 2:13 am

    Had a dog named Jorma once…..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kT196UksWxc&feature

    Listen to the message.

  63. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 2:17 am
    • knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
      July 25, 2009 at 2:19 am

      WOW! what a guitarist! Makes me one to break mine out…

      • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 2:36 am

        Knifecatcher,

        WOW! what a guitarist! Makes me one to break mine out…

        break it out.

        I don’t know who said grace slick, jefferson airplane (probably 2nd avenue) but you are getting into the sacred land.

        Fleetwood Mac is so cool and Mark, I have to go back and watch again. I am seeing so many great videos to add to my facebook page.

        By the way, I am bill cara’s face book friend (LOL) so if you can look on his face book you can find me. Please ask to be my friend as you are all my friends. You will have to put 2 and 2 together which shouldn’t be hard for anyone here!

        attached is me as Vanilla Bean

        vb

  64. Craig(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 2:36 am
    • vanillabean(118083 comments)-
      July 25, 2009 at 3:16 am

      I like the guitarist. Never heard of him (Embryonic Journey?). I thought of you craig when I was at stanford last night (mall) outdoor music fes.

      I love summer and should be out more

      anyone been to the robert mondavi vinyards for one of their summer evenings. wow, been twice sitting out in the grass under the stars drinking the wines listening to the sf symphony and another time it was dinah shore. wow – do it if you can
      PS Mark, this is the weekender you need with the wife.

      vb

      • Craig(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 4:40 am

        The guitarist is Jorma Kaukonen, the first guitarist for Jefferson Airplane (the original Jefferson airplane). It’s him playing guitar on White Rabbit and he is the originator if the San Francisco psychedelic guitar sound of the 60’s.
        He later formed a band called ‘Hot Tuna’ with the bass player from JA, Jack Cassidy, harmonica player Will Scarlet and sometimes they played with violinist Papa John Creach.

        The song ’embryonic Journey’ was on the second Jefferson Airplane album ‘Surrealistic Pillow’ as was ‘White Rabbit’. The Youtube of Embryonic Journey I posted was from Jorma’s induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

        Vb, sounds like a great time at the Music Fest. The perfect time of year….and at Robert Mondavi, I would be in heaven!

        • MarkW(118083 comments)-
          July 25, 2009 at 4:53 am

          Craig- Not that the concerts at Mondavi aren’t great, they are. The best show in the valley is at B R Cohn. I’m sure you get the connection. Tickets are easy to get and if you ever want to go you have a place to flop.

          http://tinyurl.com/msr6rn

  65. knifecatcher(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 2:54 am

    If you’ve never heard of Sandra McCracken- please give this a listen – “No more tears to cry”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfehslohDrw

  66. Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 3:20 am

    Bluegrass…it’s always intrigued me but I don’t know much about it

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_t8Hx97LwA

    • Illini(118083 comments)-
      July 25, 2009 at 4:20 am

      The modern father of bluegrass was arguably Bill Monroe and his Bluegrass Boys. It comes from the Appalachian Mountain country . For a history of the people look up Scots-Irish in America. Those very indepependent Americans were amongst the first to defeat the British at Kings Mountain in North Carolina.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kings_Mountain

      • MarkW(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 4:39 am

        Illini- Very interesting, thanks. My great, great, grandfather was Ulysses S. Grant. (Mothers side).

        • Illini(118083 comments)-
          July 25, 2009 at 5:16 am

          Ulysses S. Grant… What a great ancestor! He has a big connection to St. Louis, MO where I used to live and to Galena, IL which is NW of where I now live in Illinois.

          He tried farming on his father-in-law’s estate in St. Louis County but it was hard scrabble at the time. That is where Grant’s Farm is now located, an Anheuser -Busch estate and tourist attraction.

          I like to remember what Lincoln said of his favorite General. Something about how he would like to know what brand of whiskey he drank.

          • Grym(118083 comments)-
            July 25, 2009 at 12:31 pm

            Illini,

            I seem to recall Grant so impressed Lincoln that when someone (in the cabinet?) commented on Grant’s drinking habits, Lincoln wanted to know what kind so he could send him a case.

            I have been reading Grant’s Memoirs which he wrote after being diagnosed with cancer as a way to provide for his widow.

            Like many professional soldiers, Grant was a participant in a war he felt was unnecessary (the Mexican War).

            Not much as a student at West Point, not a spit and polish guy, not a show-off, but a daring and intuitive fighter.

            Those who preceded him, such as MacClellan and Hooker, were indecisive or arrogant or both and ineffective leaders.

      • Mackinaw(118083 comments)-
        July 25, 2009 at 10:58 am

        Interesting, Illini. Thanks for that.

  67. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 10:51 am
  68. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 11:08 am
  69. Les(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 12:31 pm

    * U.S. restaurant traffic fell 2.6 pct in May quarter

    * Diners with children contributed to decline

    * Consumer spending at foodservice outlets fell 1 pct

    LOS ANGELES, July 20 (Reuters) – U.S. restaurant traffic fell 2.6 percent for the quarter ended in May, its steepest drop in 28 years, as diners with children ate out less, NPD Group said on Monday.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN20

  70. Bev(118083 comments)-
    July 25, 2009 at 12:50 pm
    • Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
      July 25, 2009 at 2:53 pm

      Steve Cohen’s chief technical analyst (Tom DeMark) has another saying:

      “You can’t do size at highs.” There is no risk control “built in” after extended runups. For what it’s worth, reversals sometimes come with RSI2 values exceeding 98. SPY is 99.66

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

  71. Pierre(118083 comments)-
    July 26, 2009 at 9:53 pm

    His find lost quite bit of money ( I did not own his fun)in the recent past, but always liked his writing, http://tinyurl.com/nheyvf

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