Cara’s Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Jan. 30, 2009

[8:05am ET] Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) has paid out a total of $18.4 billion in bonuses for 2008, the sixth largest payout ever, in a year where they took clients to the largest financial losses in modern history, and also shortly after the ex-Treasury Secretary

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316 Comments

  1. kevin07(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:11 pm

    Unfortunately Tim Geitner is in charge of the IRS. So, I wouldn’t be too optimistic about any investigations of his friends.

  2. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    purely an intraday trade, although I still think the recent inside buying on BAC/JPM/C will ultimately not disappoint…

    • steve calkin(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 1:26 pm

      Requesting proper handling of WGW. Followed chart plan to leave at 1.78. Does anyone think it will come back to us?

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 1:30 pm

      that’s 9.35% in less than 10 minutes…

  3. tgifbipo(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:28 pm
  4. QT(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    Looks like premarket oil related stocks Hal -SLB – UCO – USO suddenly took off?

    • QT(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 1:42 pm

      This is why………

      Fourth Quarter GDP Falls 3.8%- AP

      The Commerce Department released a report Friday showing the economy shrank at a pace of 3.8 percent in the October-December period, better than the 5.4% predicted by economists

  5. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:28 pm
  6. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:33 pm

    vinod- do you have symbols for 3x technology/oil?

    • QT(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 1:35 pm

      you mean these ERX [energy] TYH [Technology]

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 1:43 pm

        QT- thank you…just looking at the volume, i guess those would not be pre-market candidates…bid/ask spreads are ridiculous…

  7. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:36 pm

    The government should be held accountable.

    I believe after the release of documents by the FOIA, one will find that the past administration used homeland security to abuse power and cover up for banks and anyone they wanted to protect. Anyone try to get information in the last 8 years through the FOIA?

    I voted for Obama because I believe he wants to change this. The question is how long will it take.

  8. jack black(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:38 pm

    My charts are showing that either we are sitting on a Sept-22-08 or Dec-01-08 like situation. Can go either way, but I’m with 2nd ave, betting for up. FD: long FAS, TNA, QLD, energy and miners.

    • jack black(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 4:50 pm

      Well, the market answered load and clear (was not that clear premarket). The selling feels more like 9/23/08 rather than 12/2/08. I will look to get out of my loosing bets later today. There is a danger that 1/20/09 was not the low of this season.

  9. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    Looks like today may finally be the day for the famed and long awaited AUY breakout over 8. I kept some of my stock from yesterday so I’m already making $.

    Also, I haven’t bought it yet but GSS is starting to look very tempting, so watch out:)

    Still waiting for the Kaimu pics…….I presume he’s not a native Hawaiian, I recall him discussing his life growing up on the mainland but still, when I picture him, he’s about 5 feet tall, 210 pounds stocky, with a shock of shoulder length jet-black kewpie doll Hawaiian hair. I know it’s weird.

    • Otis(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 1:51 pm

      Again, don’t comment much, just observe.

      Good point on Kaimu sharky, I needed that laugh.

      Jack Black, I enjoy reading your posts but I always imagine the actor “Jack Black” bhind your computer.

      Good luck to everyone today and as always thank you for your discourse and insight.

      • jack black(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 3:19 pm

        I may not be that jack black but I sure look like him, so your imagination is correct.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 1:53 pm

      hoping for an intraday rally into EOM…

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 2:11 pm

      kaimu is a relatively tall guy like me, a bit thinner, with more and much longer hair, very soft-spoken, but focused, very businesslike. Photos to come.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 2:22 pm

        hey, kaimu sounds a lot like me, man…maybe we ran into each other on the streets/beaches of California in the seventies…

  10. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:51 pm

    “an inclination to put the most favorable construction upon actions and events or to anticipate the best possible outcome”

    Bill, I disagree with any positive actions by our elected officials. Most of the elected and all the appointed government officials have learned to depend on the power of the bankers in one form or another. Government employees are put in place to “talk up” what the people need to hear. We were a Democracy at one point in time, but now we are a Socialist society that has spent the last few decades protecting the greedy rich that control the fed monies. Find one law that will punish the greedy upper class for paying themselves billions of dollars while loosing the same billions of the working peoples money.
    It’s all a bunch of talk today, tomorrow it will be business as usual for the gated McMansion owners.
    Bill, you just can’t break the wall down by beating your head against it. Try, you do, but the wall will still stand at the end of the day.
    Looks like Amazon will be the front runner today as the Walmart effect touched their discounted sales last quarter.
    Now if only F would have some good news I’d be happy.
    Done rambling for a day.

  11. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 1:56 pm

    Good morning.

    JNPR – Downgraded to Neutral @ Piper Jaffray

    Price Target Changes:

    AMZN – from $54 to $60 @ Jefferies & Co.
    AMZN – from $65 to $68 @ Collins Stewart
    AMZN – from $45 to $63 @ Friedman Billings
    JNPR – from $18 to $15 @ Jefferies & Co.
    JNPR – from $22 to $19 @ Robert W. Baird

    • SiO2(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 2:05 pm

      BH, thank you. Your posts are much appreciated.

  12. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:01 pm

    Stake my future on a hell of a past
    Looks like tomorrow is a coming on fast
    Ain’t complaining about what I got
    Seen better times but who has not.

    Silvio silver and gold
    Won’t buy back the beat of a heart grown cold
    Silvio I gotta go
    Find out something only dead men know.

    Honest as the next jade rolling that stone
    When I come and knockin’ don’t throw me no bone
    I’m an old boll weevil looking for a home
    If you don’t like it you can leave me alone.

    I can snap my fingers and require the rain
    From a clear blue sky and turn it off again
    I can stroke your body and relieve your pain
    And charm the whistle off an evening train.

    Silvio silver and gold
    Won’t buy back the beat of a heart grown cold
    Silvio I gotta go
    Find out something only dead men know

    Give what I got until I got no more
    I take what I get until I even the score
    You know I love you and further more
    When it is time to go you got an open door.

    I can tell your fancy I can tell your plain
    You give something up for ev’rything you gain
    Since ev’ry pleasure’s got an edge of pain
    Pay for your ticket and don’t complain.

    One of these days and it won’t be long
    Going down the valley and sing my song
    I will sing it loud and sing it strong
    Let the echo decide if I was right or wrong.

    Silvio silver and gold
    Won’t buy back the beat of a heart grown cold
    Silvio I gotta go
    Find out something only dead men know.

    -B Dylan

  13. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:04 pm

    still waiting for the high volume break-out…if it does, taking 25-50% positions in all 4 for an intraday spike…

  14. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:06 pm

    25% positions on a break of 832…(less inclined to play the short side at these levels)…

  15. Scott(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:15 pm

    Silver currently seems a bit overbought and will look to sell SLW into what seems like a morning rally…

    In addition, the weekly silver chart does not look good as it’s very close to the 38% fib level ~$12.80. Expecting at least a pullback soon.

  16. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:19 pm

    the pre market volume on many of the metals are suspect.

    not meant as advice. just my observation

    • Scott(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 2:23 pm

      volume in general has been suspect for awhile now.

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 2:24 pm

        maybe the volume kicks in today…

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 2:25 pm

        agreed. not saying it cant rally from critical support or if metals cant go higher. not saying i wont buy today either.

        Just that i have on my skeptical hat on today.

  17. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:23 pm

    CHRW – Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Sell. Price target raised to $49 from $41.

    NUE – downgraded at Goldman Sachs to Neutral from Buy. Price target at $44.

    OXPS – Downgraded to Market Perform @ BMO

    RIMM – Price Target Raised from $62 to $85 @ AmTech Research

    ————-

    SiO2 – Your thanks are appreciated. Sorry for the late report today, the old Bull Hunter was tired from shoveling snow and scraping ice and needed some sleep. ;^)

  18. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:31 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/dyy3qo

    Gold Unfinished on the Upside:
    http://tinyurl.com/bpqmhv

  19. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:33 pm

    selling’s overdone (and maybe done) on BAC/C/JPM…JMO

  20. Chickenpookie(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:35 pm

    They just raised their dividend.

    In the spirit of reducing unnecessary blog traffic and additional reading burden, I feel it’s necessary for me to cut back on posting my trades here.

    • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 2:51 pm

      CP,

      How did you get the idea that your posts bother or distract the group?

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 3:01 pm

        CP- i know what you’re referring to, but i wouldn’t let that stop you…we all have our own personalities/ways of expressing ourselves, and as long as the zero-tolerance policy re offensive comments is respected, i don’t care how many comments come across or how long they are…you have to be yourself, no?

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 3:03 pm

      dont think terryc was pointing the finger at you specifically. As long as you are following the rules posted, and you feel you are adding value, you should post.

      i am in the 300s with posts. mainly cuz i try to post my logic so someone can volunteer to prove me wrong so i can learn. or i am complaining about something.

      🙂

      • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 3:23 pm

        I have benefited greatly from thinking in print from the likes of Si02, NYUGrad, CP, Vinod, Johnny, Cosa, Dave, Mr. Florida…and of course, mostly by reading Bill Cara diligently…….and for those whose name I failed to mention (all the rest of you), I learn when I read your thinking, your losses and your gains…….keep posting

        position……cash in the IRA 100%

        Inv acct……90% cash….with a few leaps and longs..

        “Sitting”, waiting, looking…..

        Three market aspects hold my attention now, PM, oil and bonds…..learning how and when to add to my holdings…..I can’t take in a wide range of positions and stocks like many of you….if I can execute let’s say 4 things well this year, really well….it will be a good year…

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 3:20 pm

      CP, it’s always good to hear from you. We are all busy watching the action and replies come at a premium. Please don’t cutback on your posts.

    • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 3:22 pm

      >In the spirit of reducing unnecessary blog traffic and additional reading burden, I feel it’s necessary for me to cut back on posting my trades here.

      Try the auto-didactic 4X2 methodology Chicken, before going cold turkey.

      🙂

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 4:08 pm

      CP,

      I just noticed you posted your similar comment at the end of yesterday’s blog in response to my reply to TerryC. I don’t know how that could be construed as anything but a joke, especially considering further exchange… maybe inherent limitation of Internet communication. Anyway, if that’s the case, I retract the joke

  21. fireworks(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:47 pm

    Gold saw a big move at the end of Asian trading as London opened overnight. Hard to say if this was Asian buyers or Europeans entering on the buy side due to major protests in France. Nevertheless, gold is approaching its highs from the October period and some resistance is anticipated. However, should this zone be cleared, the next target will most likely be the all-time high of $1030 reached in March 2008. What is especially encouraging is that gold is moving up despite solid USD strength. This is a relatively rare occurrence and is a sign of strength in precious metals. Gold’s move thus far in 2009 has been very disciplined, which is generally a precursor to a massive move up. We shall see.

  22. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    Yesterday the bankers get exposed for sodomizing the next 2 generations of taxpayers.
    Today they are all trading higher.
    JPM UBS C GS USB BAC WFC STI
    An unexposed ponzi scheme.

  23. Luggie(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:55 pm
  24. vanillabean(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 2:57 pm

    Chicken,

    Please keep posting your thoughts. It really helps me.

    I am buying and selling daily but don’t post my trades most of the time! I rely on people like you to help guide my instincts.

    thanks

    vb

  25. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:10 pm

    the dow is prob weaker of an indicator now vs s&p.

    will DOW kiss 7900 today?
    can S&P stay above 800? (Critical)

    Quick question for the group. Why is ABX a good indicator for gold’s direction? is it because Barrick is hedged and will move sooner?

  26. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    These here stocks don’t seem to have any “up” in them. Sold the AUY and am surprised by the bad action.

    • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 3:33 pm

      We talked about COF briefly yesterday. I mentioned that it would be a possible short once it got back into the low $20s. Well, they’re still selling it down today as it has hit a new 52 week low.

      The stock is mired in a well-defined downward channel, the bottom of which would be hit if the stock gets down to the $15.50-.75 area. It could get there pretty soon judging by the current action, but it’s anyone’s guess. If it does, it could certainly bounce off that level and pop back up to top of the channel which is around $18ish.

      All this said, I simply do not see merit in going long the financials (other than for a very short term trade) as no one knows if and when the govt. is going to nationalize them and/or wipe out equity (and possibly even bond) holders.

  27. Steve(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:19 pm
    • jack black(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 3:22 pm

      Very true. At the end of this protracted depression (no doubt about it; the only doubt is inflationary vs deflationary), there will be backlash against bankers, but we are not there yet. I’m hoping good traders will survive (maybe I have a chance?), but buy and hold will perish.

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 3:27 pm

      Steve,

      I am a skeptic as well. But the pain felt by Americans can only go for so long. the cavity is left unattended until the pain become unbearable.

      if this fleecing by hb&b continues without slowing or reversing, people will stop working, stop paying taxes, stop paying mortgages, stop producing anything, and civil war will break out.

      And eventually citizens will be at the doorstep of the residential compounds of thain, maddof, paulson etc. & they will want a lot more than their money back.

      • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 3:36 pm

        NYUGrad said:

        ” …people will stop working, stop paying taxes, stop paying mortgages, stop producing anything, and civil war will break out.”

        This is what some would like to see happen, but many folks I talk to are either unaware, or simply do not care enough to do anything about it. When the pain gets severe enough, more people will start voicing their displeasure.

        It’s unfortunate that it takes excessive pain and suffering to right the wrongs.

        • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
          January 30, 2009 at 4:00 pm

          paying bills, having a few ounces of “future hope” in the soul, taking care of daily business occupies most peoples energy……when the bills can’t get paid then the other senses can come alive in the search for answers.

          Bill Cara’s writings are a clear and refreshing voice…….a small voice in this chatter called “life”, but clear and refreshing…….

          keep it up, maybe someone in high places will hear and be motivated to act..

          maybe only us little guys will be able to get ahead and benefit our families…

          Gold moving back up…

    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 5:01 pm

      Steve, I have long stated my belief that Humungous Bankers have bought and paid for Washington’s politicians, which is the reason why their opponents like Dr. Ron Paul are minimalized. But, if the public continues to put the pressure on by sending their messages of outrage to their elected representatives, I do believe we are likely to see change. As the expression goes, “You can fool some of the people some of the time, but… “. There are now simply too many people who are disgusted. At no time in history do I think has the public opposition to the mega-bankers been so broad and deep. Moreover, I think the opposition is just beginning, and to the extent that President Obama fights this development, I think he’s in for a short honeymoon. And, should HB&B continue to ignore the public, I believe there will be a huge move of accounts to the mid-sized banks that have been prudently managed.

      • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 5:15 pm

        >I believe there will be a huge move of accounts to the mid-sized banks that have been prudently managed.

        Made that move a year ago. We saw UBS taking us for a ride. Mortgage interest rates, fund management fees, account fees – all too high, and I understood where they were going as every Christmas new records were set for employee bonuses.

        UBS has been abandoned by its once loyal Swiss account holders.

        It’s happening in Europe.

      • Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 6:11 pm

        Bill –
        “At no time in history do I think has the public opposition to the mega-bankers been so broad and deep.”

        Average Joe I talk to here in Michigan doesn’t know JPMorgan Chase from Mercantile Bank of Washtenaw. Troubles me.

        “And, should HB&B continue to ignore the public, I believe there will be a huge move of accounts to the mid-sized banks that have been prudently managed.”

        Logical but TARP moneys and new accelerated tax write-off provisions can be used by Humungous Bankers to consolidate mid-sized banks in a M&A frenzy. Maybe local business will be more supportive of the community banks but when account limits are at only $20 million, who do you use?

        Just my observations.

        • Grateful(118083 comments)-
          January 30, 2009 at 6:41 pm

          While many do not understand these issues – I see momentum changing…more people are asking questions, looking at alternative sources for news/information.

          Just having that conversation with average Joe, increases his awareness. Had lunch yesterday with 4 others, two of them were all over this subject, and the other two received an education.

  28. WorldforAll(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    This $18 billion bonus payout also shows that Government is incapable of handling taxpayer’s large amount of money – HB&B take that money from one hand and use the other hand to pay themselves $18 billion, John Thain’s $35,000 antique commode, expensive paper bucket, etc

    On non-Political front- Bill, I have been long time reader of your blog and now I am finally moving more money to Gold based on what I have learnt from you.

  29. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:25 pm

    nice to see the jump overnight,
    but the more common habit of the POG is to begin falling in the early morning w/ the gold stocks opening higher then moving down steadily lower.

    HGU at $12.95 w/ spot gold at $915. i didnt consider the upside move in the miners yesterday worth nothing accept for NEM which had a massive spike.

    we have seen this many times before where quick and sudden spikes up occur before the gains get taken away through the day. if we can hold some gains and close the week on a higher note above $910 i think this will be a good sign.

    • tango6(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 4:40 pm

      Why do I have a completely different view? It seems to me the dramatic moves are made, up or down, in the morning and are confirmed or negated until the nmex closes, and then the POG just seems to drift.

  30. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    Anyone want to take a crack at explaining todays market action given that the GDP dropped less than expected.

    • blue bluff(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 4:08 pm

      it will inevitably be adjusted down

      • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 4:38 pm

        even if it is revised down, we’re talking about a bad number that is not as bad as feared. let me ask you this: if it was -7%, how do you think the market would have reacted? perhaps a huge open downward with a higher close?

        i guess my point is we should not look at the instant fluctuations in the markets and say that the news is priced in. people will digest this number over the weekend and the next week and make their investment decisions accordingly. my guess is that this will be viewed as a positive in the coming weeks and will help minimize the downside. the only big potential hit now is the employment numbers due out next week and the following month. if job losses rise to close to 1 million, then we will go lower. if they stay around this 500k level, then we will probably tread sideways for another couple of months and slowly go up.

        i’m beginning to get a little more positive and am slowly putting my money into the market at these prices, waiting with cash on the sidelines to see how these employment numbers turn out

        • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
          January 30, 2009 at 4:53 pm

          teamonfuego said:

          “i’m beginning to get a little more positive and am slowly putting my money into the market at these prices …”

          I like your positive attitude and take on things, and wish I could join you in accumulating stocks for the long term. But I don’t see anything on the horizon other than a possible short term boost from the Obama/Bush stimulus package #2. Longer term, we have some very big issues that if left go, will only make the situation much worse and last longer.

          I’ll change my mind when I see politicians face the facts and make the tough decisions to make corporate executives accountable for their actions, implement the necessary financial reforms, and do less meddling and allow the markets to act freely.

          But then according to some, I’m one to be faded, so maybe this is the bottom and it’s all happy sailing from here.

          • jack black(118083 comments)-
            January 30, 2009 at 4:59 pm

            Agree 100%. I expected this market bust since long time ago based on demographics rather than debt cycle . I did not expect this to be a rapid process though and was surprised by the rapid October crash (which could be easily just the oil aftershock). So, even if there is a recovery in oil prices (as we all know) and credit (TED spread is going down for a few months now), the long term demographics issue will catch up sooner or later. There will be no new bull before exhaustion. That usually takes longer than 1.5 years. Any bullish action (if any) this spring I will use to raise cash.

          • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
            January 30, 2009 at 5:58 pm

            Todd – I agree that there are problems on the horizon. But when was there not a host of problems in the history of our country? With the markets down close to 50%, I think those problems are more priced in than not. I’m still forming my opinion of the overall state of things, but I’ve seen the news flow stay extremely negative over the past few months and during this time the economy has really not shrunk that badly. It may get much worse, but I’m willing to put a little money into the market at these prices and add more if prices get cheaper so long as my opinion has not changed.

  31. yvrapx(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:35 pm

    Piece in the FT showing synchronous (non?)bubbles in stocks and housing in UK, US and Japan
    http://tinyurl.com/bwvo2w

  32. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:45 pm

    Gold is good

  33. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:48 pm

    So we are either going to snap back up or accelerate down.

    Cash is good

  34. yvrapx(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 3:57 pm

    Vad, PALM has been all over the place this AM, touched 7.52 but seems challenged to go back through 8, Q:if it stays below 8 the remainder of this session do you think it needs to retest the 5.40 level before hitting the box?

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 4:02 pm

      It seems to be moving with market at this point. Revisited yesterday’s resistance during morning market spike, dropped with it, bounced with it… I just shelve it for now until it forms something again

  35. dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 4:03 pm

    just to add some colour to my comments earlier this morning, heres my plan:

    if the HGU can move back above its morning high of about $13.98 i will be back in fully vested for a medium term rise (mabey 18-20 on the HGU). until we breach that level im holding fast. period. i need gold to show me something at stage. a move back above $920 for the close would help.

    • FranSix(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 4:09 pm

      Bear in mind that the COMEX has different expiry dates that the rest of the futures market, so its probable we’ll see some action in settling of accounts today. With the onset of February, the first couple of weeks should prove to be a bearish raid set up. We are in a seasonally strong period for gold futures, so the bearish aspect may be somewhat diminished this time around. The major correction is over, but our renewed bull market in gold may still take many weeks to form.

      The next date to watch will be options expiry for February 20:

      http://www.optionsclearing.com/publications/xcal/x

      • dr.cosa(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 4:14 pm

        interesting breakdown, i usually ignore all the options dates but ill take a serious look at this over the weekend.

        thx.

  36. SiO2(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 4:06 pm

    Here’s the online straddles calculator tool mentioned a few days ago: http://nexalogic.com/nexastraddles.html

    You need to enter the option strikes and prices manually and it will compute the max. move required. The idea is to automate this price fetching process at some point.

    Still working on it. Errors, comments, suggestions welcome.

    BTW, some of this week’s straddle results: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iV5yDiKxCdk/SYMb2E_9SgI/

    It is missing NCX, JNPR, IP, RCL and several others which are dropping off a cliff today.

    Also, a new DOW 30 table/chart similar to the CARA100: http://nexalogic.com/dow30.html

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 5:01 pm

      Thank you SiO2. If we ever meet you will not need fiats for the drinks or the food. You have been a great teacher on this blog!

  37. ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 4:15 pm

    The stock is down almost 9% today and is approaching the bottom of a 7 week sideways channel. A breach of the January 21 intraday low of $15.73 could signal further weakness.

    • goldbug58(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 7:18 pm

      They posted worst than expected losses – I agree with you it looks to be headed lower; no current position, bought at 16 and sold at 17 1/2 last week, but I’d get interested in going long if it nears 52-wk low of 13 or so. I kind of like this company for the longer haul.

  38. rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 4:22 pm

    I just read Cash 4 Gold ads during the stupidbowl are going to feature MC Hammer and Mr. Ed McMahon. I wonder where Ed is living now since he lost his home last summer.

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 4:45 pm

      You can watch it on youtube right now.
      http://tinyurl.com/cdu8do

      pretty cheesy. i am sure the customers are not going to get anywhere near market value. that company is prob getting gold at distressed prices.

      And um i guess vandalism of mailboxes across America will rise as criminals are in search of those “Cash4Gold” see through envelopes. lol.

      I would urge folks to run the other way.

    • Kerry(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 4:59 pm

      “Mr. Ed McMahon. I wonder where Ed is living now since he lost his home last summer.”

      Donald Trump bought the house and is letting Ed live there for as long as needed…

      Looking to reload on FAS, I might just wait until Monday…

  39. FranSix(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 4:36 pm

    Kinross looking pretty shrewd in its acquisition of Aurelian.

    http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/headline_n

  40. skater(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 4:38 pm

    I come up with the Dow down roughly 8 1/2% so far for the January effect.
    Presidential election year effect seems to be in sync.
    Then there’s always the Superbowl indicator for Sunday.
    Anyone quantifying skirt lengths rising or falling?

  41. jock(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    Short this week, without too many questions registered.

    Don was very disappointed by Obama’s stimulus package, which did not turn out targeted, temporary, or over time budget-neutral, as Summers had earlier called for.

    By further debasing the US$, Coxe held the package responsible for gold’s breakout today. (The euro, swiss franc and yen don’t seem worthy either). He scratched his head as to why Geithner (and Biden!) would rattle their sabres against China as a “currency manipulator” when the oil states (including Russia) are not in position to absorb huge new amounts of US treasuries. (In the 70s, there had been two strong alternatives to the dollar: the German mark, and the (partially gold-backed) swiss franc. Now there are none.)

    He half-agreed with Putin’s Davos outburst against Wall St. – saying we don’t NEED them, and that regional banks can fulfill the legitimate public function of banks, if they can get beyond current problems with commercial real estate loans.

    Coxe suggested that next week “password protection” may be added to his audiocasts (which will be run from his new website: http://donaldcoxe.com/Home.html).

    Does anyone know how we can continue to have access? I’ll be contacting his office.

    The cast I have just summarized can be heard starting noon EST at:

    http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/

    • Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 5:19 pm

      Jock said: “(In the 70s, there had been two strong alternatives to the dollar: the German mark, and the (partially gold-backed) swiss franc. Now there are none.)”

      Euro is backed by 20% gold mandate.

      • jock(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 7:21 pm

        I don’t know of (and Cox didn’t mention) any backing of the euro by gold. When I google for euro + “gold mandate” nothing comes up. I’d appreciate knowing more details. This could be significant.

        BTW, I forgot to mention Coxe’s comment on an impending 2-century low in sun-spot activity, and the implications he draws of higher grain prices – due to a late Spring planting season.

        • Dr. Strangelove(118083 comments)-
          January 30, 2009 at 9:10 pm

          jock –

          Gold was initially 15% of Euro but probably now higher than 20% with current spot price but haven’t checked in a long time:

          “The ECB agreed that 15% of this initial transfer should be in gold with the remaining 85% being transferred in foreign currency assets. It was made clear that this would not affect the total consolidated gold holdings of the ECB. Also there was no implication that the ECB would maintain a constant ratio of 15% of its reserves in gold in future.”

          This European Central Bank gold reserve mandate (perhaps too strong a word) was renewed around 2003. Read paragraph of July 1998.

          http://www.reserveasset.gold.org/central_bank_agre

  42. vinod(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:15 pm

    in at 22.22
    About wall street bonus, it say a lot about what we believe in and what we do, and what we teach to our children which is you go to best business school and learn about greed, to be a good crook, and learn to develop a good ponzy scheme. It is good to talk to other about moral, ethic, right thing to do. But do not apply them for yourself otherwise you will go nowhere.
    Let get the bonus while we can, there may be none in next few year. Let get the bonus while our man are at treasury and fed. Do not worry about politician; they need our contribution to run for election.
    I now do believe that greed is good if it puts money in my pocket. Good talk is good to tell other, it is not good to apply for myself. In the end it is money that talks. Anyone who thinks that thing will change at Wall Street they are dreaming.

    2nd
    i just got time to logon

  43. brown-cal(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:20 pm
  44. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:23 pm

    Foz,
    There is an interesting article by Jim Jubak today, The new financial bubble is here. (Treasuries)

    http://tiny.cc/w4ITj

    I’ve been in a Treasuries-only mutual fund since 10-20-08 which yields close to 3% (due to laddering) and simply pull out gains periodically. Also, you might want to try the ETF LQD which is corp bonds paying about 5.5% (this is protectable with stops).

    As for others like munis, I would be very cautious since, if the city is in the kind of debt mine is, they could be a problem. I like the ETF for corp bonds due to the stop feature.

    I am retired and protecting assets is primary with me.

  45. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:25 pm
    • Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 5:57 pm

      Steve, jack black, NYUGrad, and Grym

      You guys forget that a growing number of financial editors and regulators are listening to independent and objective commentators like Mish, Barry Rithholtz, myself and others. Change never happens unless there are agents, and blogging has made that possible just like the cell phone was the single most important reason why the Iron Curtain collapsed so suddenly after the process began. We shall overcome. There will be change. I see Cuomo is going to sue Merrill Lynch for their $4 billion “bonus”. Other States will follow. This will get ugly, quickly.

      • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 6:12 pm

        Bill,

        We hope you are correct. Justice served always leaves us well, better, stronger. Hollywood sells movies all the time with that theme.

        this could be an interesting year

      • nofed(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 6:22 pm

        I doubt that Bill watches CNBC.

        There is a lot of outrage that somebody is asking for taxmoney back that was used to pay the Merill Bonus. $4 billion in bonus money for the execs that just turned in a $15 billion loss for the quarter? Smells like a revolt coming from the Humongus Banks & Brokers. They believe they deserve to have taxpayers pay them a bonus.

        White collar crime being defended by CNBC to protect their advertising base?

        • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
          January 30, 2009 at 6:29 pm

          6 weeks ago, the Fast Money Host (Mr. Slick) name?, gave a “don’t go there” glance to the trader who usually sits on his right. This was done when a Goldman downgrade was announced and the trader yelled out, “there’s my buy signal!” and grinned real big. The host met his eyes, grinned back and changed the direction of the conversation….it was very telling after reading Bill Cara for a few months…

      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 6:43 pm

        I know i complain alot but i am not sure i am comfortable being put into a basket of negative people 🙂 JK Steve, jack black, and Grym

        I do write to the Obama admin re things i would like to see and what i think were bad moves, ie a wrong decision on Geitner.

        Most of my complaining has also helped my friends start to trim back expenses and think about what is really going on in the world.

        i am hopeful and encouraged to see our President publicly speaking against the bonuses. But i also have a lot of skepticism until i actually see some of these “gnomes” brought to justice.

        I too voted for change. I guess i am afraid if i turn too hopeful, the progress for change will stop.

      • kevin07(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 6:48 pm

        Regarding the Merrill bonuses, etc. Why is everyone focusing on the senior managment guys? I don’t have a problem with the bonuses if they were approved by the BOD (maybe the compensation committee). Isn’t it the BOD that should be held accountable? They are the ones in this whole mess that either approved what management was doing or sat on their hands. Thus far they have escaped any scrutiny or liability. In my experience they hide behind D&O insurance when anything goes wrong. We need to restrict coverage on these policies so these guys can’t just walk away with no financial liability.

  46. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:28 pm

    I think we are ever so slowly moving up. UCO seems to have a base !10.45 and could move either way, but I just don’t see a lot of downside at the moment. I hold UCO@10.02 from yesterday and very stupidly violate my own rules and failed to sell into yesterdays rally nor this mornings. I need to get my mojo back! At least I’m in the black.

  47. jack black(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:31 pm

    The reason I don’t like it is not so much as TLT buying opportunity but association with market tops in equities. Anyone seeing it that way? Seeking a feedback.

  48. holdenll(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:34 pm

    Pulling trigger on SRDX. Have a bid in at 19.99….Mentioned reasons yesterday.

  49. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:41 pm

    The Obama bounce is having a hard time bouncing.
    When Obama became the new president the DOW was sitting near 8100, but really hasn’t done much since.
    YHOO just made a small jump, AMZN still holding onto a 17% gain, TGI still up 10%, the banks are struggling a little since this AM.

  50. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 5:59 pm

    it was written about yest but i hadnt seen the video of him speaking about it.

    http://tinyurl.com/arkod6

  51. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:03 pm

    Gold iz up twenny-three-fitty an ounce!

  52. bobbyo(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:08 pm

    Hey longs, I have not been watching stocks at all today I sit down and watch it bounce 100 points in five minutes. Is it because of me or some other market noise. If you are negative I might stop watching so becareful with your replys.

    • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 6:14 pm

      bobbyo,

      try selling your losers and see if they go up! 🙂

      • bobbyo(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 6:39 pm

        bobbyo,

        try selling your losers and see if they go up! 🙂

        That is too easy. Automatic gains there.

  53. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:15 pm

    We’re goin’ back to $1000 boys!

  54. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:17 pm

    Target 22.50
    09030N4X1K Cash Buy 200 shares DZZ at 22 Limit Day 01/30/09 Filled

    01/30/09 13:16 Filled 200 at 22

  55. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:21 pm

    FAS in 9:57am@$9.77 out 1:08pm@10.1271 a good trade.
    UCO in 1/29 9:43-10:14am @$10.027. Held overnight, out 12:51-1:03pm@$10.69
    Purposely missed two spectacular spikes 1/30 between 12 & 1pm and open this morning. I even had overnight sell orders in at a higher price than when I sold, but seeing UCO was seriously up pre-market, I cancelled the orders pre-market. This was not an example of good trading habits IMHO! At least I made money and resolved to do what has always worked. Discipline!

  56. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:22 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/c7655y

    When i 1st heard of Marcy (Ohio congresswoman) it was in the anti-bailout “Wall St come home to Mama” video.

    Now she is urging her constituents to become squatters and stay in their foreclosed homes.

    the revolt is beginning. why was she not elected as Treasury secretary? I would have loved for her to have been

    I can watch her tongue lashings all day.
    http://tinyurl.com/3t5ck4
    http://tinyurl.com/53ore8 (mama)

    • rlogan1301(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 6:41 pm

      I like her and I’m a republican. I wonder if she voted for the 2nd TARP.

  57. 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:39 pm

    liking the ugly action…

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 6:42 pm

      put order to buy FAS at 8.50
      TNA at 23.50

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 6:44 pm

      agreed.

    • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:37 pm

      A 2 minute window at that price 2nd.

      You’re on the ball…

    • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:38 pm

      A 2 minute window at that price 2nd.

      You’re on the ball…

  58. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:47 pm

    gotta fight and avoid 800.

  59. David(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:47 pm

    Good morning! While I was sleeping, my sell limit order at $11 was hit for 250 shares of UCO I purchased yesterday at $10 (using another limit order). I am getting more and more concerned about the value erosion in oil ETFs (due to contango). Crude oil spot price is noticeably above its lows, but UCO/USO are right near their lows. So instead of buying more UCO today, I just bought 200 shares of ACI, which took a tumble today. Also, seeing SLV move up but SLW stay behind, I just bought 500 more shares of SLW at $6.57 and placed a sell limit order for them at $7.57.

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 6:50 pm

      David, I agree. I am becoming more cautious and nervous trading in UCO or any of the oils.

  60. MoKat(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:51 pm

    Inventories are added to GDP figures as “growth” which tempered the latest GDP statistic.

    “Inventories increased by $6.2 billion in the fourth quarter, after going down $29.6 billion in the third quarter and $50.6 billion in the second quarter. The climb added 1.32 percentage points to GDP. Real final sales of domestic product, which is GDP less the change in private inventories, decreased 5.1% in the fourth quarter, after falling by 1.3% in the third quarter.

    “Obviously, with final demand declining at a 5.1% annualized rate, an increase in inventories is hardly good news for future economic conditions,” MFR Inc. analyst Joshua Shapiro said. “It signals that businesses were unable to reduce inventories to desired levels as demand evaporated. This means that orders and production will sink even more as inventory control and final demand both weigh on activity.” WSJ

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 6:57 pm

      Thanks for the heads up, Mokat

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:21 pm

      What was the change in inventories in Q4 of 2007?

  61. tango6(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 6:52 pm

    Will the DJIA close below 8000?

    One can only hope.

  62. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:00 pm

    for purchase.

    Still in cash.

  63. vinod(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:04 pm

    Since refiners may get hit with strike so, oil may go down
    And vlo/tso/sun may benefit and go up, price move in refiners look like that?

  64. Monty(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:20 pm

    With gold soaring over $926/oz and GLD up 2%, why is GDX in the red? Some of the juniors are soaring (UXG and ANV), but AUY, GG, & KGC are flat to negative. I thought miners usually provided more leverage than just the price move of the metal. What am I missing? FD: ANV

    • rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 7:29 pm

      I sold my ABX last week, my WGW yesterday and my GG today. I blogged earlier about the upcoming Cash 4 Gold ads going to be on the Stupidbowl. I’m applying a little reverse psychology in that the ads are going to get the crowd to buy gold as opposed to the crowd selling their gold. We know what usually happens then. HB&B ends up with the spoils. I’m taking my profits for now. I am holding on to my SLW. I’m trying to find out who might be the major laptop maker ZPower is going to put their silver/zinc battery in.

      Just my opinion.

  65. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:23 pm

    but prices are usually set for a reason. (walking away from pc to heat up lunch)

  66. bobbyo(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:29 pm

    Seems to me the so called good and bad financials are going in different directions today. What could this mean for UYG and FAS if the trend continues.
    Bob

  67. David(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:36 pm

    at $17.52 for the 200 shares I purchased today at $15.52. I already have a core position in ACI prior to today’s purchase, and so I can dedicate the shares purchased today to the trading realm.

  68. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:45 pm

    Today sold Jan 2010 GG 35 Calls for $5.90.
    Previously sold Jan 2010 GG 22.5 Puts for $5.40
    Holding GG at cost basis of $24.
    If GG stays >= 22.50 and <= 35, ROI is 47% (11.30/24) and I keep GG.
    If GG goes above $35, ROI is 92% (22.30/24), and I lose my GG.

    I think the odds are good that GG will trade higher than $22.50 in Jan 2010.

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:03 pm

      Thanks Dave that was helpful.

  69. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:50 pm

    in at 2.75, out at 2.70.

    Using the 1.5 day ATR trailing stop.

  70. kameag(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 7:53 pm

    Just an observation, the TSX venture exchange has been holding up well the past couple days vs the broader exchanges. I seem to remember Bill likes to see the venture exchange up as an indicator of appetite for risk. Not sure there’s been enough volume to get excited about…

  71. SiO2(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:07 pm

    Micron (MU) was the top S&P500 performer in Jan, Fifth Third (FITB) the worst (fifth third? what a name).

    Holding SNDK 10-13 for Monday.

  72. northvan(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:07 pm

    Jock,

    If you contact the office, please find out if holders of the Coxe Commodity Strategy Fund (units or warrants) will have access.

    Thanks.

    • jock(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 9:23 pm

      Northvan, et. al.

      I just spoke to Don’s business manager, who said BMO has not in past deemed holders of Coxe’s fund as entitled to receive his content (audiocast and Basic Points). Clients of BMO Nesbitt Burns HAVE been so entitled.

      It’s still unclear who will obtain audiocast passwords, once Coxe Advisors’ Licensing with the Provinces and SEC is complete. For the next month, she believed, access would be open, without passwords.

      On the right side of Don’s new website (http://donaldcoxe.com/Home.html) are 3 clickable links in red:

      top – tells you where to find the audiocast (implicaton: that the traditional link [http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp] may no longer work)

      middle – where to leave your email for update on Coxe Advisors’ services (as they are rolled out)

      bottom – to the coxe commodity fund page, which will soon have a year-end report with outlook for 2009

      It seems as if licensing and business arrangements for the audiocast and basic points are still being worked out.

  73. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:09 pm

    long 26.09, max pain 35,45

    Do your own homework.

  74. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:14 pm

    It looks like it’s just lying there stunned since about 1:30pm

  75. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:19 pm

    i will be a spectator

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:23 pm

      A wise choice. But I do recommend being a paper trader right now and just see where those securities are come Monday and scribble a note as to why we would have bought them. Free painless risk free learning!

      • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 8:30 pm

        Paper less for weekend

        GG 29.32
        ABX 37.22
        GFI 10.48

        DZZ 22.10
        DGP 20.42

        CVX 70.34

        SNDK 12.03

        TBT 47.67

        see you monday

        we’ll see monday

  76. bg(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:19 pm

    Si02 Is that 10 on the call and 13 puts?

    • SiO2(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 9:34 pm

      The other way around bg, calls always higher.

      • bg(118083 comments)-
        January 30, 2009 at 9:45 pm

        That’s what I thought. Was confused by 10 being first. I was having trouble conceptualizing how one makes money the other way (however I have managed to lose every other way possible I think>)). Thanks

  77. dberryclan(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:23 pm

    DZZ above 900 ounce

    DGP below 900 ounce

  78. BillySundance(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:23 pm

    I don’t know about everyone else, but this market is just getting brutally exhausting to watch……..feels like we are in the midst of some fierce towel-throwing this afternoon!

  79. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:23 pm

    GE is now trading for $12.10. Daily chart looks depressing. It’s back to the lows of 1 week ago.

  80. tango6(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:26 pm

    8000 penetrated.

  81. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:27 pm

    buying some here.

  82. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:31 pm
    • MtnGntx(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 10:06 pm

      Someone asked me the other day if I bought into the Obama “change” herd mentality. I replied that I do indeed buy into it. I said that I dont particularly believe Obama to be an extraordinary individual, so much as an ordinary guy in extraordinary circumstances. People around the world are fed up with the rule-makers and their relentless game-playing. They are sick and tired of being abused and they are demanding that their opinions be heard. (A little known secret; the masses have the power, they always have had it, and they always will have it… whether or not they choose to exercise it… and this fact scares the he!! out of those who profess control)

      The topics discussed today on this blog could not see the light of day in the recent past… Bill’s life-long committment to the pursuit of truth not withstanding, these topics were not in-vogue with the masses. Those of us who were unsettled over the absurdidties of toothless financial regulations and the inequities of NAFTA were actively disparaged by our peers. Now, thank goodness, the masses are beginning to consider those (like Bill) who are on the record as being prescient and courageous enough to “call a spade a spade” during the heyday of excess.

      I believe change will occur this time… Not because of Obama, but because the people that Obama represents are ready and eager for change (namely us)… and extraordinary or not, Obama is in the position to effect our will. Furthermore, I am comforted in knowing that now that real change is suddenly viable, there are those with the expertise (like Bill) willing and ready to avail themselves so that these efforts manifest in a purposeful and effective manner. I can tolerate the current and anticipated growing pains… because, now, I truly believe that “we” are finally “growing” once again.

      And now for something completely different….
      Aside from being absolutely one of the most brilliant things I have ever come across, I found the following video strangely comforting in the midst of my chaotic life. I attach it with hopes that it may have similar effects in your own lives.

      http://tinyurl.com/3d9yg5

      …Life is grand and, yes, perhaps I am easily amazed.

      Have a terrific weekend everyone.
      Sincerely.

  83. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:34 pm

    Placed a buy@8.02, it’s presently trading @8.82, low today 8.75

  84. davefairtex(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:35 pm

    Looks like there are a few other people in the market who agree. Things seem headed down rather briskly.

    • teamonfuego(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:45 pm

      i’m buying.

  85. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:40 pm
    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:44 pm

      🙂

  86. vinod(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:43 pm

    2nd
    brought some at 14 .50

  87. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:44 pm

    Took a chance & bought 100 FAS@9.04, kept my limit order@8.02

  88. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:45 pm
    • DRC(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 9:42 pm

      what I don’t understand is gold miners didn’t correlate with gold price recently.
      I’m still holding GG & KGC for a while…this could be either very bad or very good for me.

  89. David(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:48 pm

    UCO is the double ultra long for ^DJAIGCL, Dow Jones-AIG Crude Oil Sub-Index. If you plot both price charts in Google finance over the range December 23 to January 29, you’ll see that ^DJAIGCL is down 3.35%, while UCO is down 13.19%. This is the ultra ETF value erosion at work, combined with the contango erosion. Over the same range, SCO is down 15.18%, despite ^DJAIGCL being down 3.35%!. If ^DJAIGCL rises 3.35% exactly to its closing level on December 22, then UCO will probably be down 5% over this time range, while SCO will be down 25%!!! This once again demonstrates the point I have been making that ultra-short ETFs lose much more because of the value erosion than ultra-long ETFs.

    Another interesting observation that can be made from these charts is that ^DJAIGCL is not perfectly correlated with the WTI spot price. Even though WTI spot price is 30% above its lows on December 23 (when it closed at $30.28) according to http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/rwtcd.htm, ^DJAIGCL is up only about 9%. So the oil contango is disappearing by way of the spot price moving up relative to the futures price, which move up much smaller. Therefore, we should not be very upset with UCO not being up as much as the oil spot price. The biggest problem with UCO, I think, is the ultra-ETF value erosion. However, even one trade per month with a gain of 10% (which is easy in UCO — I just did it between yesterday and today using the limit orders) compensates for this value erosion.

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:51 pm

      Excellent post David, the value errosion is why I don’t like to hold these more than 7 hours.

  90. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:49 pm

    Volume right at cob here, same for FAS and others.

  91. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:50 pm

    long again at 2.46

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 8:52 pm

      brought some at 2.40

  92. greg(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:57 pm
  93. Pillzilla(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 8:59 pm

    BUT NO BOUNCE REALLY TO SPEAK OFF….GOLD IS LOOKING QUIT BULLISH HERE.

  94. bsi87(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 9:00 pm

    long at 9.58

  95. holdenll(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 9:02 pm

    The following are stocks I am watching.
    Longs: PM, COF, CPO, MEOH
    Short: STEM

    http://www.finviz.com – simplistic take on the market….use screener and exclude ETF’s. Use RSI(14) greater than 70 for overbought, less than 30 for oversold.
    12 pages of oversold and 9 pages of overbought…. looking for longs.
    It is updated during the day….

    Purchased SRDX today.

    Real money…holding SAY with $1.07 as basis, MSCC with $8.32 as basis.
    WMT and CL as core holding…..WMT is getting oversold in its own right!

    I will try to match up trades using http://www.tickerspy.com. I think it only uses end of day pricing so it is more challenging.

    http://tinyurl.com/dc58pp / Portfolio figures.

    What I look for to buy….see post on 1/26/09.

  96. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 9:07 pm

    David, is there value erosion in USD? I’ve held a position since 9/22/2008, added on 10/14 & 12/23 cost is $27.24. I could take the loss, but any value errosion would certainly make up my mind instantly.

    • David(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 10:29 pm

      Jonny, there is value erosion in ALL ultra ETFs, but the extent of this erosion is much bigger in ultra-shorts than in ultra-longs.

      USD is the double ultra of ^DJUSSC. ^DJUSSC closed today at almost the same level as on November 12. USD is 10% lower now than on November 12. So its value erosion is similar to that of UCO — about 5% per month. So you need to trade it occasionally so as to compensate for the value erosion.

      I am planning to get out of USD, UYG and QLD if we have a rally in the next couple of months. I don’t believe we are in the next leg down now that will break November 20 lows. We should have a rally before the next leg down.

      • Johnny(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 12:30 am

        Thank you David, your observations and advise are a big help. I will sell USD on the next rally. On 12/8, I sold out of everything except for USD and took my losses. Since then I have done quite well trading and am gradually covering those losses. I certainly don’t need a -5% monthly drag from USD.

        If you are ever in the Baltimore/York/Harrisburg/Wilmington area drop me a line.

        • David(118083 comments)-
          January 31, 2009 at 12:36 am

          “If you are ever in the Baltimore/York/Harrisburg/Wilmington area drop me a line.”

          Thanks, Johnny. I have two little children in the SF Bay Area, so traveling in the near future is a bit difficult for my family. But I’ll keep it in mind…

  97. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 9:12 pm

    Has been a delight for 2 days. I don’t own any at the moment and haven’t noticed much mention of it here.

  98. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 10:06 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/dd6vu7

    thats too generous. how about no pay and they get to keep their freedom until investigations are over.

  99. Rugger09(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 10:26 pm

    MtnGntx,

    That video is simply amazing… I needed something uplifting today. Thanks

  100. dberryclan(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 11:09 pm

    If WMT hits the low 40’s this quarter or next it may be a great leap to buy?

  101. seadog(118083 comments)-
    January 30, 2009 at 11:29 pm

    “Owners of capital will stimulate the working class to buy more and more of expensive goods, houses and technology, pushing them to take more and more expensive credits, until their debt becomes unbearable. The unpaid debt will lead to bankruptcy of banks, which will have to be nationalized, and the State will have to take the road which will eventually lead to communism” Karl Marx, Das Kapital, 1867.

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 11:36 pm

      Oh my God that’s a good one!

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 11:48 pm

      It’s funny,

      I was just in my fave Italian joint picking up a couple lasagna and the owners were chatting me up as our friends across the pond say. Turns out they, and like, millions of other small business owners are living in mortal, paralyzing fear of creeping socialism, particularly, the concept of contributing to either a living wage on the low end, or even worse still, the concept of providing or helping to provide health care benefits to all employees. This idea scares small business out of their shorts.

      One of the miracles of Capitalism is its “franchisability” the expanding and contracting nature of the system in which the exploitation replicates and grows, as “little dictators” sit in corner offices across the fruited plain supervising the wage slaves. But hey. It’s the best system in the world.

      Have a great Superbowl guys! Go Cardinals!

    • Milesquare(118083 comments)-
      January 30, 2009 at 11:51 pm
      • seadog(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 12:34 am

        Good picking Milesquare. I simply pulled the quote from an august financial website in London and have asked them to verify their source. In the meantime I’ve googled around a bit and it would seem the quote is doing the rounds of The City and Wall Street. Refer http://www.popmatters.com/pm/post/made-up-marx/ for more detail. Of well it tasted poignant to the mind’s palate! Just goes to show one should never assume the written word is fact or its derivative truth.

      • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 1:31 am

        Milesquare,

        good catch. I am probably one of not many here who read that thing. Well, surfed through as much as possible in order to pass the exam. Not that I remember all 4 volumes word in word (grin), but I am familiar with Marx’s theory enough to see that the quote has nothing to do with his views. It makes rounds on internet for a while and I wondered whether someone would just search the text for that quote. Good to see someone did.

  102. vinod(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 12:46 am

    2nd
    Yesterday and today brought DZZ/TNA/FSA/USO/UCO/HNU/HOU/UNG/IFTB
    And OEX option. I am at breakeven point. Will use tight stop for Monday.
    Look like there is no light at end of the tunnel. And if I see one it is of a truck coming in our direction.
    max out my 20% i wanted to use rest is cash

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 1:23 am

      “Look like there is no light at end of the tunnel. And if I see one it is of a truck coming in our direction.”

      vinod- it often feels that way when one chooses to drive against traffic, and even more so when entering a tunnel on days of heavy selling; there will be no light. on the other hand, if you see the lights of an approaching truck, it’s probably the one that’s going to help carry your load to the top of the hill, as there are few trucks heading down any further at this point…

  103. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 1:04 am

    Many are most likely aware of these matters, but I posted this link for those who have not seen the news http://tinyurl.com/ctqjug

  104. Craig(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 1:41 am

    It could be two motorcycles…..life is a cartoon.

  105. shark_attack(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 1:46 am

    It’s kind of cool realizing that we’re kind of getting to Communism of a kind even if it has nothing to do with the way Marx thought it would happen. Government won’t let people starve, won’t let them freeze to death, won’t let a big bank fail, won’t let the ’08 bonuses go unpaid, ….It’s a nanny state!

    This is really the end and repudiation of the Reaganite notion that the perogatives of business can and should be primary to those of people. At least I hope it is:)

  106. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 2:02 am
    • 4ever(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 2:24 am

      Johnny, this is off topic, but do you think Barclays will survive?

      • Johnny(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 2:53 am

        4ever, as much as I would like to provide an opinion, I don’t really follow the individual fortunes banks and financial services. It’s better that I admit ignorance rather than mislead anyone.

        Of course that hasn’t stopped me from trading the financial ETFs.

      • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 3:28 am

        4ever,

        it’s funny how one can find an article about fear of the US defaulting on one end of the spectrum (which means what for the world? Chaos and colapse?), and Bill Cara exuding a certain amount of confidence that we are in a bottoming process and that this game will be reflated for another round.

        It sure seems like the world is “floating on hope” til next earning season is here….(then it could be really scarry)

        The worlds businesses are reportedly emptying inventories and scarcely replacing them!

        As far as Barclay’s and the banks? How low can they go til the plug is pulled? who decides that, when and how?

  107. Foz(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 2:47 am

    In today’s Daily Report, and in previous reports, Bill references bonds generally, as in “This Bear move in Bonds (see Cara Trade of the Generation in late November 2008) has just begun, and one could argue the bond bull market lasted for 28 years, so the corresponding Bear will be many years long, not just a couple months.”

    Is this thesis focused solely on treasury bonds, and if not, what other types of bonds might be considered at risk if this thesis holds true in the coming years? I’m concerned about my mother’s modest retirement income account, which is mostly in a variety of different bonds, and which likely needs rebalancing/reconsideration. Thanks in advance.

  108. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 2:47 am

    Given the tepid even negative (TCK -10.33%) performance of PM miners today, with the price of gold and silver up. No doubt todays 148 point plunge in the DOW Industrials and the relentless dower mood weighed on them. But of course there are other possibilities. Perhaps the market doesn’t yet buy-in to the current increase in the PM prices, expecting them to quickly fall back. As Fransix pointed out on 1/29 post #9320 [Yesterday and today were options expiry on the COMEX], therefore PM price movements were to be expected, implying a possible transitory situation.

    In any event GLD +2.02%, SLV +2.12% and DGP +3.63% took notice.

  109. igold(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 2:59 am

    Maybe we should all sign this,I did

    http://www.petitiononline.com/123wxy/petition.html

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 3:16 am

      The world could use more of this igold. I’m a yank living in Southern Pennsylvania, so I can’t help with the Canadian petition. But, we do have a claim-to-fame in the good ‘ol USSA. By sheer quantity we have more sleazy banking/financial execs than you have in Canada. Instead of a petition, I prefer firing squads and long prison terms. But our politicians just give these theives more money. And while many of us are out of work, the execs have nice cushy jobs, give themselves bonus’, buy corporate jets and other companies, then come back to our politicians/federal reserve and treasury for more money. Of course it’s not real money, because the USSA is bankrupt!

  110. vinod(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 3:38 am

    November 6 FAS 55.50 New (debute) ETF opning price todat it closed at 9.17
    november 6 FAZ 60.22 New (debute) ETF opning price today it closed at 50.40
    November 6 XLF 14.81 opening price that day today XLF closed at 9.24

    David has explained about this price movement in many posts. This is in down market. But what will happen in up market?

    • David(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 4:22 am

      ^RIFIN closed at the same level on December 11 and on January 9. FAS dropped from 21.76 to 20.46 during this time period, losing about 6%. So the value erosion in FAS is about 6% per month. Thus, if during the bull market the average monthly uptrend in ^RIFIN will be higher than 6%, then I would expect FAS to move up. When ^RIFIN is in an uptrend, then FAZ will obviously be going to 0 even faster than during a flat market.

  111. brown-cal(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 4:15 am

    First Geithner and now Daschle. Its funny how the Democrats do things, they pay back taxes as a sort of entry fee for their positions.

    Compare that to Paulson, who had his tax bill reduced by several hundred million in order to get him to take the job at the Treasury… now that’s doing it right!

  112. jock(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 4:21 am

    Since the 11/20/08 market bottom, Silver stocks are up 136%, and gold stocks are up 78% – first and fifth position among the 239 Morningstar sub-industry groups.

    The broad market, S&P-500, is up just 10% from the bottom.

    The 4 worst performing groups are regional bank groups, down between 14% and 20% since 11/20.

  113. BOB 47(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 4:28 am

    Texas gave us Ron Paul and now fortunately Congressman John Carter http://tinyurl.com/ch7wck

  114. David(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 4:33 am

    Basically, you make a guess at how high ^RIFIN will be a month from now — say it will be up P%. Then, I would expect FAS to be up 3P-6 percent in one month.

  115. yaba(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 1:52 pm

    Please keep posting I really enjoy reading your posts. I find them informative and entertaining. I really miss your contributions here. You are on the top of my list. I hope you reconsider. Please, Yaba

    • vinod(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 3:00 pm

      Chickenpookie
      Please keep posting. Your posts are useful.
      I going to be honest and say what I have in my mind which is there are some post by important poster which has not help or guide me to make any trade. Bu I will not mention it, they are consider important.

      • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 4:46 pm

        CP,

        you are smart, witty, and colorful in your posts. Miss ya…DB

  116. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 2:29 pm
  117. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 3:12 pm
  118. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 3:25 pm
    • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 4:48 pm

      I hadn’t paid a great deal of attention to the row Grym, but you’ve got me thinking.

      Politicians know from history what ‘beggar thy neighbour’ economic relations does – usually creates intense disagreement, including war. But it cannot be rationalized that they are aware/mindful/avoiding this trap – going the easy electorally populist route – as they fight there way through another economic crisis.

      But I listened to Dr George Freedman from Stratfor.com podcast rationalize the continued dominance of the United States in the 21 st Century – once it recovers from this crisis – due to the destructive and creative nature of the capitalism practiced over there (unlike Europe and Japan which for various reasons prop up various dinosaur industries).

      You just made me wonder. Would the administration hide behind a protectionist policy by accusing its leading partner of defaulting on agreed practice (as you’ve suggested) so that it could withdraw from that partnership with the least loss of face in order to rebuild the American economy – and I’m thinking primarily of manufacturing.

      Combine that withdrawal from default partnership with a new round of regulation governing environmental standards, welfare, labor, justice and law (well maybe not the latter – the US is the incarceration capital of the world of course)so that US companies are influenced by policy (read coerced) into returning their manufacturing bases to the US mainland. The US does have a very low minimum wage so if they kept the unions out (which is what the big three dream of or are trying isn’t it?) could a return to manufacturing be viable. It seems to me that a service economy is a bit of a crock as we see in the US and needs to be supplemented with some/ or more manufacturing than is presently the case.

      The political elite and the people know that liberalization is a crock. It has been thoroughly abused to grow bottom lines and even then the profits were inflated. It strikes me as appropriate logic if Mama should coerce her children to come home and do what’s appropriate to help recover the household budget.

      It’s wild conjecture and I hope it is wrong. But if this is the opening salvo in a new, protectionist economic climate then things could get ugly. 60’000 factories closed already in China. Millions out of work. You know what happens when social unrest occurs. Government’s play the nationalist card. In China’s case, that’s bashing the Japanese. With the US still offering guarantees for Japans defence… ahh don’t want to think about it.

    • barry(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 7:11 pm

      “The folly is endless.”

      I agree, I think all the chants of “lack of experience” are coming “home to roost” to borrow a phrase, and we are experiencing Obama administration amateur hour.

      The pork laden stimulus plan, China comments, and appointment of tax cheats to key Senate (Wrangle) and Administration posts has given me little hope that they will contribute meaningfully to solving our ethical and economic difficulties.

  119. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 3:30 pm

    I got my annual dose of happy feelings from It’s a Wonderful Life.

    The truth is stranger, more interesting, but less than satisfying.

    Both Jimmy Stewart and Frank Capra are dead and Clarence (the angel) got his wings and flew the coop.

    Too bad, but that’s what I see from here.

  120. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 4:05 pm
  121. Craig(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 4:15 pm

    Man, if I was really listening to some of the commentary recently I would either conclude we must be very close to a bottom or we are on the verge of a major Wall St. window leaping event. Come-on everyone, chin up for crying out loud. Stop digging and put the shovels down. We don’t need anymore depth.
    This all stops when we decide it stops.

    Those of us lucky enough to be here (The BC Community) and see the on-coming train have the advantage of vision and the ability to act.

    People **that keep their heads** can become very wealthy in uncertain times like these. But….the negativity feeds on itself and drags us all down (sigh). Rather than stating what we can already hear more than enough of on CNBC or MSM right now (the sky is falling, the sky is falling), how about discussing how WE ALL are going to take advantage of the circumstances and become wealthy (or at least more wealthy than we are now)?

    Have a NICE day!

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 4:39 pm

      Craig,

      I am firmly in your camp.

  122. bigwad1(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 5:08 pm
  123. swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 5:10 pm

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGHgzlJMNL0

    Here’s one person in the senate that speaks her mind and for the taxpayers.

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 10:41 pm

      Thanks Swiss, an impressive speech by Senator Claire McCaskill. I have read that when faced with a life changing event, humans experience a range of emotions known as SARA (#1-Shock, #2-Anger, #3-Rejection, #4-Acceptance), myself and some others are at #2. When we get to #4, then we can begin to fully express our individual efforts to make things better. For those on this blog who are already at #4. Congratulations, I am happy for you. You are most fortunate.

      Until that time I hope patience will prevail.

  124. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 5:19 pm

    jock, swissrobinson, kevin07

    My own Rep. Don Manzullo, who was a fan of globalization until about two years ago is now talking up restoration of manufacturing here. The old “Find a parade and jump in front” technique may gain adherents.

    Many see our protectionist policies as likely a big contributor to the spread of Japanese imperialism leading to WW2.

    I just came across this view of the Geithner accusation and would appreciate some other’s comments on the validity of it. It’s beyond me, but i find it intriguing.
    —————————

    CHINA – You Manipulator –Yu

    Minyanville’s Kevin Depew says…

    About eight days ago, Swiss National Bank Second Banana Mr. P. Hildebrand alluded to currency market intervention as a plausible tool in fighting the crisis. Kevin Depew feels that Mr. H’s comments were in effect a blueprint of prompts being laid out for the US Fed and especially the US Treasury. Then, as recently as last week, we heard the word “manipulation” being used to refer to the Chinese yuan. By none other than Treasury Secretary Geithner. Them’s evidently, fightin’ words!

    Kevin explains further:

    “The term “manipulator” relative to currency is a serious one and not just one more piece of hot campaign rhetoric. “Currency manipulator” is a formal designation set by the Treasury Department that paves the way for explicit sanctions.

    Far from being simple rhetoric, and it is guaranteed China will take these Geithner soundbites seriously, the charge of “currency manipulator” will be viewed by China as a strong signal the incoming administration is determined to end the present mercantilist policies where the U.S. takes on increasing debt to consume the good that China manufactures, with the proceeds of the current account surplus recycled back into the U.S. financial markets through purchases of U.S. Treasuries.

    This is a fundamental shift but not for the reasons most analysts and media outlets will state; namely, that it means China will no longer purchase U.S. Treasuries, [and that it will switch to gold instead] interest rates will soar and/or the dollar will collapse. No, that is wrong.

    First, the most important purchaser of U.S. Treasuries at present are U.S. banks, not foreign governments. Second, this shift, rather than kick starting an inflationary spiral, will actually exacerbate the deflationary debt unwind by increasing volatility, reducing liquidity and reinforcing risk aversion and balance sheet repair. Eventually this will translate into higher cost of capital, but that is a longer-term issue, not the present one, which is rebuilding or maintaining solvency for corporations and individuals.

    It would not be an understatement to consider this a serious step toward economic war. For why, read up on the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act.”

  125. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 5:21 pm

    Craig, Vadyn Graifer,

    Telling what one has experienced, however gloomy, does not mean we can’t profit by the situation. On the contrary. Isn’t it better to recognize reality and deal with it? TARP, Bad Bank and massive monetization are all attempts to solve a problem by hiding its causes and protect the creators.

    Just because you may not been personally touched by this “cancer” doesn’t mean ignoring it will protect you.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 5:49 pm

      LOL! WHO *isn’t* touched by a world-wide recession/depression, deflation and subsequent reflation?

      No one suggested ignoring anything. What I am suggesting is that what everyone already knows has no value. We already have heard all the sob, end of the world stories. There will surely be more.

      Touched? My daughter signed a year lease with her BOSS (one of three partners in a Veterinary Emergency referral Clinic) on December 31st and business got so bad three vets, a few techs and assistants, including my daughter, were laid off on January 10th. My brother is in the movie biz. No financing for movies these days. By some lucky (?) twist of fate he fell and fractured his leg so is on disability….for now.

      No, we are all touched.

      Tell us something we don’t know.

      I’ll tell ya, my daughter got a BETTER job. Chin up is what I told her too.
      Two weeks ago the world ended. Yesterday she called telling us of her new career. Bill would cite Ecclesiastes. That works for me.

      There is a time for dragging down and a time to lift up.

      • yvrapx(118083 comments)-
        February 1, 2009 at 4:27 am

        Craig, vad et al. I, like Grym, find it very hard to stay positive in the face of the negative tsunami of dismal sentiment each and every day. But, after I have had my moment in the “no-where but down” camp, I realize the incredible opportunity being presented. Craig pointed out but a few of the excellent stock ideas from Bill and the group. I am firmly in the optimist/learning to profit from adversity camp simply because as Craig noted, ‘What I am suggesting is that what everyone already knows has no value. We already have heard all the sob, end of the world stories. There will surely be more.’ To whit, let’s make some profitable trades!

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 8:30 pm

      Grym,

      I don’t believe anyone has suggested ignoring the reality. I understand Craig’s original post as suggestion to focus on the constructive aspect: what can we do in a current situation to protect ourselves, to prepare for what is coming and to be ready for an opportunity when it presents itself. This, I believe, was also the idea with which Bill started this blog years ago, and it continues to show in each and every of his posts.

      • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 8:58 pm

        well said Vad and Grym,

        I see Bill calling a spade a spade when he writes. I don’t read his straight talk about the markets in very many places and his straight out blasting of those responsible for the current capital market mess. He’s an independent
        commentator and we all like that. Reality is what it is.

        Blood will boil when it hurts. If the market magically goes up over the next year and an “all is well” sense is in the air then reform is less likely to occur. But when we hurt, is usually when we act.

        Who’s hurting enough to act?

        history will tell.

  126. swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 5:31 pm
  127. kp84(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 6:06 pm

    As always, I enjoy the CTAB discussion notes; thank you for sharing these insights.

    Especially enjoyed the link to the Presidential Inauguration photograph.
    Missed all the media events that day as I was sleeping due to night shifts. This is the best photo I’ve seen thus far. The zoom feature is fun.

    Challenge to the Community: pan and zoom to find people you recognize!
    Besides the Supremes, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the political elite, Ben Bernanke is present. Wonder what he’s thinking in the bitter cold?

    Have a great weekend, everyone.

  128. EDC(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 6:13 pm

    Chickenpookie – KEEP Posting as I search your posts for the intellect. It is admirable.

    Craig (not a personal comment towards you but you got me thinking, thank you for sparking a thought)

    – there are plenty of ways to make money aggressively in this market or conservatively. The problem is you need to swim with the river not against. We have been conditioned to go one way and that way is against, more or less in a long term strategy. Short term is down with doom. Nuff said. We are no where near a bottom my friend. There is way to much optimism as “gubermint” is here to save us or whatever else the charlatans say… The gubermint can’t save us from a problem that we enabled and fostered. We threw away our savings and decided to consumer to much. Now the paradigm has shifted and we will save, less will be more and it will be cool. Peak credit is behind us, peak earnings is behind us, deleveraging is here and we are on the back side of the largest credit bubble in the history of the globe. Banks and entities are writing down everything that isnt’ related to a performing asset (ie good will, intangible assets) in hopes that help is on its way. We have W_Gross calling for the US gubermint to do something to prevent debt assets from going down. That talk is nothing more than whining, crying and asking for a bailout. The truth, as Bill_C mentioned years ago (i didn’t believe then) is these assets should of never been created (because of fraud) or they aren’t worth what they are worth. News flash W_Gross that is a you problem and it is your fiduciary duty to your clients to take responsibility to your clients and position it for what the market could do, not what you think the gubermint must to do protect you assets. This is not taking responsibility for actions. As Bill_C mentions this must be done. It is getting out of hand. The gubermint can’t create wealth per-se all it can do is misappropriate capital from one pocket to the other through malinvestment (picking their own winners/bubbles) and have the tax payers pay it back. For ever dollar the gubermint spends it is yields less than that in the market place. Why else is the private part of GDP is over 75% and the gub is less than 25% of GDP.

    We will become a nation of savings going forward no longer spending. This is going to painful and take years as we are behind the recession of what should of started at the turn of the century. No amount of “hope” will beat math in the long run.

    at the “peak” we have about 52 trillion in debt (so far written off 1 trillion in this country) global wealth is down over 40% according to recent articles. The debt has to be written down globally to match, if not the wealth has to to appreciate what almost 60% to meet the debt? Not going to happen.
    In the past 8 years 40% of the debt created was from securitization market. That market is dead, and the gubermint can’t bring it back to those levels ever (unless they put a gubermint guarantee on it, like we could really do that with math) — if we created about 25 trillion and 40% of it was through secruritization, we have learned what those assets were, in fact a big portion of those assets if they default, the collateral is nothing but a tracking of an index. At least some were tied to houses, but many were tied to “derivatives or indexes”. I havent’ found out what percentage was synthetic but i’ll guess wallstreet out smarted themselves. Many of these loans led to job creation now we are in job retraction with people who must pay back debts on actual stuff with money that should of never existed. Jeremy Grantham did an excellent piece of how much debt must be written off in order to get back to normal levels he stated in his news letter somewhere between 10-15 trillion. The latest report from an HBB firm, the economist called this not your father’s recession – more like your grandfathers and stated at least 6 trillion must go… Who’s word would I believe? Both, either way there will bottom but the pendulum will swing to far as it usually does. So we have written off 1 trillion thus far…. 6-15 must be deleveraged to be in a normal levels, debt/credit will be paid back to offset that number but a bunch will be destroyed. Notice how the bailout number keeps getting bigger and bigger.

    {EDIT: Once the deleveraging takes place, IMHO we will see that Friedman was wrong and Irving Fisher will be more correct as the only real solution is time. Heli-Ben has drank to much of Friedman’s cocktail. /END EDIT}

    Those knuckleheads who created this mess must take some responsibility. We stand here and want to cheerlead the market higher with “hope”; if that happens they win, we lose. They won’t pay their crimes and we will socially think its ok because the DOW or whatever is back to normal levels on the greatest heist known to the earth. After that were to happen the next crash, well you get the point – i hope.

    Recently I have engaged in interesting (least to say) conversations with money managers or portfolio manages; we have an extreme difference of opinion of where the market is going. Very extreme but again, they their model is long, they will cheerlead up. I don’t know if i’ll be right but time will tell.

    Back to the trigger – there is plenty of opportunity out there, just don’t be greedy and patience will be valuable and to many people at this point in time are opportunistic so, until then. We have not bottomed yet.

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 6:30 pm

      This is more of the same. We already know all the doom and gloom.
      You simply repeat it.

      I’m not suggesting cheerleading the market higher in some silly political comment.

      I’m seriously asking…if instead of spewing more and more bad news we already know, if we can contribute, positively, something to add on how to profit from the otherside of this sword.

      I will use an example: Have you looked at the 3 month chart on Bill’s WIR for some of the goldminers? up 178%? 178%!!!
      How about SLW from $2.50 to $7?
      GG $13 +/- to $30 something?
      TCK?
      CAT from $32 to $45? (and back).
      MSFT $16+ to $20?
      SNDK $8 to $13?
      TBT from $36 to $48? What a bummer! Can we play the end of the world again?
      All this during unprecedented doom and gloom stories.

      Puleeese….if we stop complaining and instead pay attention, we can afford a *lot* more cheese to go with our whine when all is said and done.

      • NotNekkidYet(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 6:56 pm

        Not picking on anyone but why is this even mentioned or a topic?

        There are some very witty folks posting here and it would be a shame if they are compelled to go elsewhere for a little back and forth about the things they find important enough to share/throw out here for discussion.

        JM.02….

        • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
          January 31, 2009 at 10:43 pm

          What would this blog be like if posts did not bear the stamps of each poster’s personality? Might as well read a professional journal, no? The give and take each day, along with occasional off-topic banter, is what makes this place a community. If a little levity is not out of place in the operating room, in the midst of combat, or during our various day jobs, it certainly is not out of place (and IMO a necessary and welcome distraction) in the midst of trading.

      • seadog(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 8:52 pm

        Craig,
        I couldn’t agree with you any more. As I’m a half day away from most posts I get up in the morning and read through the many posts. I try to filter out those that do not refer to trading, albeit I’m not always successful. As many have mentioned here there is a need to be quick and flexible to profit in these markets but because I’m half a day away I can’t realistically day trade the US market. In the past I have tended to be oriented towards the daily/weekly data. If someone has figured out how to trade these markets from a longer time frame orientation then I’d love to read their strategy on this blog.

        B+ not just a blood group but a way of life!

    • dberryclan(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 6:41 pm

      good word…..

      Gross often sounds like a whiner….”print more, print more, print more….”

  129. Illini(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 7:59 pm

    Anyone besides me buy UPS near the close Friday when RSI7d briefly dipped below 10? The stock went down sharply the last two sessions and was down 23% in January. The RSI tool is showing accumulation zone but the price it is using is Thursdays close not Fridays.

    UPS *
    44.84 19.19 27.94 26.7 Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)

    Fridays close was $42.49 and I bought near the daily low of $42.24 while watching a real time, intraday RSI7d readout on a ScottradeELITE chart.

  130. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 8:26 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/cnp6s6

    1. How will the economic stimulus package help your job situation?
    It won’t make any difference 75%
    It will help me find a job 6%
    It will help me keep my job 19%

    Total responses to this question: 108,667

  131. BOB 47(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 8:29 pm

    Thank you for fixing the RSI tool.I can read it again in Safari.Thats great! Bob.

    • korvus(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 10:17 pm

      Glad to hear it works! I wondered if upgrading to the newest version of Google Web Toolkit would do it!

  132. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 8:46 pm
  133. Grym(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 8:55 pm
    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 9:12 pm
      • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
        January 31, 2009 at 9:15 pm

        OHH, thats a nasty wart on the nose! 🙂
        jk.

  134. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 9:13 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/afjpzd

    Great article showing the mood of Wall St employees. Poor souls have no clue their business model is out of business already.

    I feel bad for the city of new york and the majority of the citizens of the boroughs. as i think the recession will be a prolonged one in NYC. Crime will prob go up, city services will be cut, education will be cut, housing that has held ground will ultimately plummet.

    Without Wall St and finance jobs, New Yorkers cannot afford $1M 1 bedrooms and bmw 7 series. Unless we all go play for the Yankees.

    EDIT: in keeping with optimism, I am liking gold more and more as i keep staring at the chart. even if the stoch is in the overbought range. And CTAB Bahamas is only 2 months away 🙂

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 4:50 am

      Video follow up.
      http://tinyurl.com/bobpys

      Rosy glasses point of view: I guess i can pick up a used bmw m5 v10, with NY or CT plates, for dirt cheap fairly soon.

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 3:25 pm

      This is a subject I know a heck of a lot about.

      As far as Wall Street’s effect on the NYC economy, as a guy who slugged it out for a few years living on the upper east side in a stabilized apt (under a grand a month) working a naff inside sales job that put me firmly in the middle class, I have to say Wall street’s effect on the economy WAS IN MANY WAYS EXTREMELY DELETERIOUS. Oh sure, the tax revenue was huge, the cops were everywhere looking for people smoking pot, and the tourists poured in from every hick town across the fruited plain, but the city became in truth a playground for the rich. Really. By late 2000 you couldn’t get an apartment for less than 2500 a month. You couldn’t get a good dinner reservation ‘cept for a month in advance, maybe. You couldn’t get out to the Hamptons in the summer even if you’d wanted to, for all the latter-day Gatsby’s who infested the area each season.

      Women (the best looking ones from all across America move to NYC and try to meet guys) wouldn’t date you unless you were either an underwear model or making at least half a mil a year, and were willing to bestow a good deal of it upon them. At the same time, the culture, the musicians, the punks, the dopers, the artist, the guys who weld old scrap metal together and sell it for thousands all moved away, leaving nothing but yuppies as far as the eye could see. All of a sudden to rent an apartment it wasn’t enough that you had a job and a pulse, at the height of it you needed blue chip credit, a job making half a mil and sometimes you had to pay in advance anyway. The buskers largely disappeared, as did the neo-folk singers and the dope-slingers all across the lower east and west sides.

      In short, the city became nice at first, then it became expensive, and finally it became boring. I for one look forward again to the day when cops shoot it out with, not unarmed black guys in their own buildings but with people who stand an even chance. I look forward to the day when squatters once again re-inhabit the slums downtown like rats after the apocolypse. The thing about NYC was, around 1980-1992 say, was you’d walk down a street and it was SCARY. And that was cool.

      • vinod(118083 comments)-
        February 1, 2009 at 9:52 pm

        shark_attack
        you mean A Conservative Mugged by Wall Street.?

  135. swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 9:40 pm

    Happy to read – and will leave long winded commentary – to weekends from now on. It’s nice to read economically literate takes on the economy from others – especially you fellas at the face of the coal mine. The personal encounters mentioned hit home to me what remains fairly distant for Switzerland. I suspect 2009 will change that for us.

    So, what about T-bills and Gold?

    I’ve read here somewhere that the fed may be more inclined to tackle yields on T-Bills than hold the price of gold down.

    Can they do that or both indefinitely? If they succeed in pissing the Chinese off, what then for treasuries? – all that paper that the Chinese are sitting on and US efforts to sell a trillion or two of debt this year?

    The price of gold going up and down… Is this finally an upward trend?

    Irritating to let AUY go at a loss on Monday and find it back above again Friday.

    Am I incorrect to say that miner’s have broken away from other equity groups? i.e., they’re higher this week as the rest of the market drops. Is this likely to remain as the rest of the market looks to test nov. lows?

    Any prognostications on where PM’s are going this week?

    Will resume reading tomorrow.

    Night all.

  136. goldbug58(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 10:07 pm

    I think Shark and Vadym played this in recent weeks; I also noticed the extreme price movements (up and down) and went back and charted it. So one thing I saw was a double-bottom around 3+ back in late Nov/early Dec with low volume. Then suddenly Dec 7, 8, 9 and 10 volume tripled to near 80 million, then 60 million or so(where previous vol was less than 20 mill).

    OK, stock moves up, quickly from low 3, breaks 10, pulls back, hits maybe 13+ and consolidates around 10 finally peaks over 15 – during all this the stock appears to be in distribution. Then it looks to be in accumulation and now a sharp sell-off.

    So – would formation of another double-bottom be good enough to go long?
    Or is this too simple?
    (apologies to the TA eggheads, I know I suck at this).

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 3:02 am

      goldbug,

      DRYS was one of my favorites during this period of big volume and wide intraday ranges. We played it practically daily. This recent sharp drop was news-caused, and in these cases stock sometimes gets simply “broken” as a mover. Remains to be seen whether it’s the case with DRYS or it’s going to return to life. I usually back off for a few days to observe it and see what kind of life is left in it. Sometimes it takes a few days, sometimes weeks or months…

      Trading candidates come and go. Used to be UAUA, then PLD, HIG, STT, DRYS… just rolling with punches and go where activity is. One of things my years of trading taught me is, next bus is right around the corner. Just when one DRYS loses will to live, another GERN pops up on the scanner, and fireworks start anew.

      • goldbug58(118083 comments)-
        February 1, 2009 at 9:53 am

        Vadym, thanks for reply.

        Another issue that has seen a big run-up in the past month on average volume -Sepracor (SEPR). (don’t see much mention of it here, its a pharmaceutical).

        Strong volume increase on 29th January (12.5 million vs. average 2.5 million)
        and doji on 30th – does this seem to indicate a strong reversal is in the cards?

        I’m also trying to learn hot to spot the “footprints” – in particular, how does one spot heavy selling (such as hedge funds) into rallies; or heavy buying on dips; this is really hard for me to pick out.

        • vinod(118083 comments)-
          February 1, 2009 at 3:45 pm
          • goldbug58(118083 comments)-
            February 1, 2009 at 4:36 pm

            Thank you Vinod. According to VL, the patents on Xopenex and Lunesta expire in 2012 and 2014. And there is pressure from competitor Sanofi-Aventis. New drugs in the pipeline include Omnaris (for allergic rhinitis) and Alvesco (asthma) and there is one other, Brovana, which launched 2 years ago. But these respiratory drugs are very competitive, and the VL analyst on this issue is not particularly bullish on it (and I’m not a doctor, either, so I have no clue).

            The stock’s had a nice one-month runup from about $10 to $17 – I was more interested in the activity last Thurs and Fri when it moved lower (and especially the volume spike Thursday). Thought about buying short-term puts on it if the view from here looks to be down. I’m looking for confirmation of that, I guess…

  137. korvus(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 10:18 pm

    FYI, we had some problems pulling down the charts for the daily report. I’ll try to fix it for the WIR tomorrow!

  138. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 10:56 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/dn25fa

    TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — NBC said on the eve of Sunday’s Super Bowl that it has sold the last two of the 67 advertising spots for the game, pushing total ad revenue for the event to a record $206 million.

    • shark_attack(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 3:12 pm

      I am not surprised that these ad’s are a hot item. In this age of splintered ad market these ad’s are an incredible bargain, and an opportunity for the right company with the right concept to step up. Probably all-time record viewership this year as well.

  139. vinod(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 11:14 pm

    Peasant lane mall Nashua N.H where we shop has cut back hours. Now open M-F from 10 to 8.30 instead of 9 to 10 and on Sunday from 12 to 6 instead of 9 to 9.
    THERE are roughly 1,500 malls in the United States, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, many of them ailing, some of them being converted into office buildings, and others closing their doors for good.
    May be we should ban AMZN?

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 11:34 pm

      Vinod, with AmZn +17.64% Friday perhaps that bodes well for more internet shopping and computerization. With so many companies hurting and so many unemployed, it’s hard to forecast an improvement in IT profits generally. But for those who can get by without a car that is a big cost saving and should more than offset the extra shipping charges for increased online purchases. The online shopping sector may do well. They have a mature business model and they don’t have the overhead of bigbox stores.

  140. vinod(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 11:22 pm

    Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) — Banks in Florida, Maryland and Utah were closed yesterday as regulators wrapped up the busiest month for failures since the housing slump began in 2006.

    Ocala National Bank in Florida and Suburban Federal Savings Bank of Crofton, Maryland, were shut by federal regulators, according to statements sent by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. MagnetBank of Salt Lake City was seized by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions. The banks had total assets of $876.4 million and deposits of $790 million

  141. rosevillebill(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 11:34 pm

    I keep reminding myself about when Bill said Gold would be the last one off the dance floor. In reality it was in the 700’s for a brief period. In relation to other commodities that does not compare. There sure has been a lot of hype of gold going up. Is it still dancing and soon to get off the floor?

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      January 31, 2009 at 11:37 pm

      roseville, I recall Bill saying that there will be a time when gold and the dollar move up together and here we are.

  142. jmorris1950(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 11:37 pm

    Mr. Cara,

    I am a short-term trader who would be decimated by a transaction tax that seems to be gaining traction in the US government. If you are familiar with this tax proposal, can you comment on what might be done? For example, would it be possible to (a) trade in a country and/or (b) on a exchange that does not exact this tax?

    My guess is that as long as I remain a US citizen, I would have no legal recourse in avoiding this tax but perhaps you know differently.

    Thanks…

  143. brown-cal(118083 comments)-
    January 31, 2009 at 11:57 pm

    Obama is right, the government needs to set the example. And here is the example he has set so far – don’t pay your taxes until you are caught. After being caught all you have to say is “oops, my bad” and you’re set.

    And believe me, more people will be tempted in the tough times ahead.

    • seadog(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 10:15 pm

      It’s called the Geithner defence. Subject yourself to this defence and you will be exonerated and receive a well paid government appointment.

  144. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 12:17 am

    Popped up for a couple of days of skiing. 50 degrees, clear blue sky, and good snow…And the place is empty. No lines at the lifts, shops in high end locations closed. I spoke with a couple of workers at Heavenly and they say business was down about 60% lat year. However, they have seen an up turn the last 3 weeks. Can’t wait to see what is going on at the casinos tonight.
    Anyone following V? Re-entered at 43.54. Sold at 62.18 for a huge loss about 3 months ago.

  145. vinod(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 2:18 am
    • swissrobinson(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 6:48 am

      Oooh here come’s the pain from commercial real estate.

      thanks Vinod.

      How long before this commercial real estate collapse makes it onto the banks books and into our living rooms?

      Another low, followed by the bounce we’ve had, would be welcome.

      Some fancy tickers getting hammered out there. V, AMZN etc.

      I’ll be in place with a new broker.

      Vinod, U can’t ban AMZN. I won’t allow it… 🙂

      Living in a French speaking country, AMZN is my lifeline to cheaper (Dark Knight 30% cheaper than local stores) English language media. These guys definitely have a future in a globalized marketplace.

  146. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 4:31 am

    that can potentially makes some waves in the pool.
    _______________________________________________

    By Ed Henry, CNN senior White House correspondent
    Last Updated: January 31, 2009: 3:01 PM ET

    WASHINGTON (CNN) — After initially vowing to unveil a new financial rescue package this coming week, senior officials in President Obama’s administration now say the rollout date is being pushed back an extra week.
    http://tinyurl.com/bfycef

  147. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 5:16 am

    I still have hope this is not just rhetoric by the new administration.

    they have established a new initiative to push the middle class to the forefront. You can actually submit ideas directly on their website and I encourage you all to do so.

    http://tinyurl.com/dbzmoc

  148. ssv(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 6:14 am

    http://tinyurl.com/bfqzp5

    In all doom and gloom there are still oppurtunities. A bud of mine works there and will have the house and the merc paid off.

    kismet…..

  149. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/av9bx7

    I try to coin a new word: IDIOTROGENIC.

    • NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 6:27 pm

      Bump. i enjoyed the coffee.

  150. Luggie(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 2:31 pm

    Went to pick up a pre-prepared dinner for the daughter’s dance pre-gathering at the house last evening at Olive Garden (decent pricing for mob of 16 high school seniors). The place was wall to wall at 5 pm. It’s onto the watch list, and will watch for a while to get the pulse. Happy Trading

  151. NotNekkidYet(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 3:35 pm

    The Romans named this month after their name for purification, februum. It is my birth month, so quite naturally I’m quite happy to add another chalk mark to my tally.

    If I had a wish, it would be for the purification of our World so that all may live life to its fullest and know true happiness.

    And Go Cardinals! (I just have to go for the underdog!)

    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 4:07 pm

      Happy B’Day month NotNekkidYet!

      Today is the start of my 54th year on planet earth.
      Another chalkmark indeed!

      A noble wish for us all.

  152. sjk(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 4:40 pm

    Just read this blog-type article – the author has a tax-related approach that I haven’t read about elsewhere – am throwing this out for those who like to read these things…

    “Hence, the best remaining remedy available to government might be an attempt to make what I describe as ‘True Blue American Companies’ much more competitive, both domestically and internationally, by helping them dramatically slash the cost of doing business. I see two primary ways to accomplish this: one, eliminating Federal corporate taxes on companies that achieve a critical mass with regard to the hiring of American workers and the purchasing of American provided services; two, the adoption of a national health care system funded through an increase in the payroll tax…”

    http://www.hpleft.com/020109.html

  153. Grym(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 4:48 pm
    • Craig(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 5:10 pm

      Alright…agreed to all but term limits. We already have term limits in the constitution. What we need is an educated/enlightened/involved electorate and a cleansing of lobbyists and their cash. If there is to be political duplication (corporations/trade organizations/lobbies/unions) then the field must be level. One man one vote.
      No corporate favoritism at the expense of the workaday guy/unions.
      Term limits ala the Presidency takes away our right to choose good representation and retain it should we choose to. What you really want is for voters to be able to judge performance and separate BS from bought and paid for lobbying/PR/propaganda.

      Not as fast or expedient, but the process is slow for a reason and is purposely built into the Constitution.

      Make no mistake about it…you can hear it in the media BIG TIME right now…this is workers against big money/HB&B, plain and simple. Just watch CNBC/FOX for five minutes and listen to them sing their master’s song….”class warfare and income redistribution is wrong”….after they redistributed UP from working families for 30 years. Trickle down my a@@.

      It’s time for working people to stand with the right crowd and stop getting split off by stupid unsolvable social/moral questions. Whatever we choose, we better stick together or we will hang separately.

      Can we make money now?

  154. vinod(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 5:25 pm
  155. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 5:49 pm

    Server problems — as you saw yesterday with the Saturday Report — are slowing me down a lot. Templates don’t work if the data doesn’t fill. Was supposed to be fixed yesterday. Anyway, hope to have the WIR out later today sometime, even if somewhat abbreviated.

  156. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 5:52 pm

    Aha, korvus got stuff to work, so I’m back at it. The Sat Report tables ought to work now too.

    … oops, I see they don’t for Sat.

  157. jock(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 6:27 pm
  158. tango6(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 6:46 pm

    Remember “the first week presages the first month which presages the whole year for stocks?” Bulls hope not.

    I don’t believe that stuff but I am still a bear anyway and looking for weak stocks to short rather than strong ones to buy.

    However, GERN looks snappy to me at under $8–i may buy a little although I am not anxious to be long anything except silver and gold.

    For those who missed it on Bloomberg, Marine Turbines, a “closely held” UK firm is partnering with MBPP of Canada to set up a demo turbine that will harness the power of the spectacular tidal bore in the Bay of Fundy. They (http://www.marineturbines) have built already a couple of successful tidal generators.

    • ToddinFL(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 10:24 pm

      tango6 said:

      “However, GERN looks snappy to me at under $8 …”

      In times past (and even more so in bull markets) GERN would have attracted my attention from the long side. Allow me to add a few words of caution, purely from a technical analysis standpoint.

      There still remains some overhead supply from May ’07 and December ’06. Those who bought the stock back then and have held on through the decline may represent potential sellers between $8.50-$10.00. The emotional need to “break even” is one of many human faults that keeps us from profitable trading. But it still exists, so be aware of it.

      I’d rather see the stock get north of $10 (to clear out that overhead) on further increases in volume to signal that there’s more upside.

      The huge volume blastoff on Jan. 23 is very impressive, but take note that the stock closed the day well off its highs of $8.38 (short term traders were booking profits).

      Any break of $6.50 in price would signal that the intermediate bull trend is over, and could likely send short term traders to the sidelines in a hurry.

      This is a day trading stock given the overall current market environment. Use tight stops and don’t be upset if you get taken out of your position.

      If I was to play this from the long side, I’d watch it to see if it pulls back maybe 2-3 more days on lower volume. This would signal that those who bought in are supporting the stock and sellers have diminished.

      Just one person’s opinion. Fade away …

      • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
        February 1, 2009 at 11:14 pm

        “Just one person’s opinion. Fade away …”

        Todd- Of course, I know what you’re referring to, but it reminds me of Neil Young’s “it’s better to burn out than to fade away” in reference to another stock from the late-nineties genomics mania…my younger brother, whose career in mergers and acquisitions was just beginning to take off, invited a colleague to spend a few nights in the Bay Area one Christmas…this colleague was working for a well-known British hedge fund manager in HK, and I recall him recommending CRA to my Dad…in doing so, he mentioned he was putting serious money behind the recommendation; his entire IRA was invested in it…my Dad declined to jump in…CRA promptly shot up into the two hundreds a few weeks later (to my Dad’s regret), but then fell just as spectacularly to the fifties several weeks after that…it has languished in the single digit/low-to-mid teen range for the past eight years…

  159. mntinhi(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 6:53 pm

    gld,dbs,DGL,BVN dzz, all positions are small, if and when gold starts to correct, sell the gold and keep the dzz, after bottoming of gold, sell the dzz and double down on gold. This is not a reccommendation but a tactic. I feel eventually these crooked policticans will end up devaluating the currency. I don’t think the politicans really know what they are doing. Why gamble alot until clearer direction. 25% in market, I will hedge everything until I get some better signals. The government is just too manipulative right now. Thank you Bill for the lesson in risk control!

    • blue bluff(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 7:46 pm

      It seems like a lot of the guys in here are in cash until they make a short term play and they have tight stops to protect themselves. For anyone who holds long positions I think they’re crazy not to hedge in this environment. I’ve been harping on this the last 2 weeks over at my little trading blog. After a lot of thought and discussion I think buying protective index puts is the way to go. The summer is usually a rough time for the market anyway so I like at least the summer strike dates but the September or so strike dates even better. Anything longer than that gets too expensive in my opinion.

  160. tango6(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 6:57 pm

    I do not own or have anything to do with MBPP. Know nothing about their management, market cap, prospects, etc. Same for GERN – know nothing about them, or want to. Like somebody said, don’t marry stocks, just date them. You don’t need to know much to date a girl, just watch the way they move.

    • Vadym Graifer(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 10:13 pm

      tango,

      I know you said you don’t want to know anything about GERN, and “don’t marry the stock” is my motto… but I thought I’d share what I know about the way it moves anyway – no to marry it by any means but to be prepared for when it starts moving again, and IMO at some point it will.

      First thing to remember about this stock – it’s a serial disappointer. At no point in its history it held the highs for any prolonged period of time. That said, at no point did it see the times when the administration of the moment was very friendly to stem cells research.

      GERN made a sizeable move in late 90s when it came out with its “fountain of youth” hype. It was market prone to double and triple small stocks in a matter of days if not hours, and GERN did just that. I remember the day it announced its shining perspectives a few minutes before market close, and I scalped 3/8 (fraction times) on a few thousand shares, only to see it gapping couple bucks in the morning and running further. Hype fizzled out of course, and over the years since then GERN did a few tries to move – good for a quick momo plays, never to hold.

      At this point, the conditions are as favorable for it as they could ever be – stem cells research is likely to be looked upon much more favorably by the current administration, and GERN seems to aim for something more “feet on the ground” than fountain of youth. Still, it’s just a first phase it got approved by FDA for, and if you observe it intraday, you can see the personality of this stock… very volatile, with gut-wrenching pullbacks. Will “this time be different”? I believe volume will give us a clue.

      My verdict at this point would be: keep on radar, be aware of news in the field, maybe date it now and then, see if it becomes marriage material, be ready to divorce quickly. All usual technicals will start working on it only if and when real volume comes.

  161. Fox1(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 7:27 pm

    I spent several hours this morning reviewing the 680 page American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed by the House (my besetting curiosity is sometimes a curse). This is not law yet, but if you think government is big now, just wait!

    My purpose was to find potential investment opportunities. For example, what companies might benefit from the $1,000,000,000 proposed for the manufacturing of advanced batteries or the $1,825,000,000 set aside for broadband deployment? Pages 97-109 outline how the Department of Energy will deploy its $18,500,000,000 on renewable energy.

    Transparency and oversight requirements stipulate that each Federal agency shall publish on the website (http://www.recovery.gov/) all announcements for grant competitions and awards of competitive grants. You may want to Bookmark it!

  162. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 7:31 pm

    Not sure if i can wait for CTAB Bahamas to raise my hand to ask this question.

    i think i now have a novice grip on using rsi, stochastics, macd, & volume, to time the big moves and sentiment/momentum.

    But what combination of indicators and or time series are favored for when rsi, stoch are not oversold or overbought?

    Would it be prudent to add rsi-2 into the mix? thanks in advance.

    ie charts of gld and gg
    http://tinyurl.com/d95p97
    http://tinyurl.com/b2dvbx

    • seadog(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 11:10 pm

      “But what combination of indicators and or time series are favored for when rsi, stoch are not oversold or overbought?”

      People write whole books to cover this subject so expect many answers. To my mind it really depends on your strategy, ie are you trading trends, reversals or breakouts. There is no one perfect indicator for all these strategies however RSI is generally a good indicator for all strategies, not perfect for any one but good across all three. RSI can be useful in trends if used with moving averages. In trending markets I use a combination of RSI and a EMA cluster of 5,15,30. In a strong trend you will see prices drop back down to 15 or 30 EMA and RSI will retrace to around 50 then both will bounce back up so at that point you have a good entry or pyramid opportunity.

      If you use many indicators then they can contradict each other and cause indecision or delays in confirmation, not good. IMO use price as your primary and a couple of indicators as your secondary or confirmations. Whatever you use it should be in harmony with your personality…. the hardest part of any system is knowing yourself. Good luck

  163. Johnny(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 8:15 pm
  164. jock(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 11:01 pm

    http://tinyurl.com/dagh8o

    Not just hillarious; a brilliant basis for a campaign to attract gen-x-ers to trading ….

    • Johnny(118083 comments)-
      February 1, 2009 at 11:18 pm

      I luv it!

  165. David(118083 comments)-
    February 1, 2009 at 11:46 pm

    As I mentioned back in September, when I just started trading WGW, that I will be buying it mindlessly on the way down in fixed increments and selling mindlessly on the way up (so as to take advantage of all its fluctuations) until it rises above $2. Now WGW is at $2, and it is no longer an obvious value. So I’ll just keep my core position in it (currently 6% of my portfolio at a cost basis of $1.5) and let it run.

    As a new “money pump”, I’ll now start trading ACI/BTU, setting buy limit orders on the way down and as soon as one of them is hit (say for X shares), setting a sell limit order 5 to 10% above the purchase price for the same X shares. I read their recent quarterly earnings statements and was quite impressed. They both have a lot of free cash and are both looking to make some acquisitions right now. I am surprised their stock prices fell so much already, and I am pretty sure they have seen their bottoms already.

    On Friday, I purchased 200 shares of ACI at $15.5 (and set a sell limit order at $17.50). For Monday, I am placing a buy limit order for 200 shares at $14.5 and another one at $14.

  166. Bill Cara(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 12:47 am

    Spilled some kind of sauce on my sweater, so came in to change. Had to check the site. Saw this link. I wrote about it a week ago, but labeled it incorrectly at the time.

    http://tinyurl.com/ck455m

    btw, there are maybe 30 people here at the Super Bowl party and maybe 3 are watching the game. The neighbors have set up massive TV’s, BBQ’s, open bar, etc.

    I’m still trying to figure out who is playing. Most of the people here are fans of European soccer, and are using Super Bowl as an excuse to party. I think some of them started this morning. 🙂

  167. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 12:56 am

    wont this make USD stronger temporarily?
    below is excerpt from the Econoday weekly:

    The Reserve Bank of Australia meets for the first time in two months this week and is expected to resume its series of interest rate cuts. Its key interest rate is currently 4.25 percent. The Bank of England also is expected to cut rates again this week, this time to 1 percent from its current 1.5 percent level. However, the European Central Bank, despite the spate of negative economic data, is expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 2 percent.

  168. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 1:07 am
  169. jock(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 2:15 am

    Peter Thiel in Davos suggests in 2009, US$ and yen will strengthen, that UK is the worst country to invest in on the planet. Doesn’t matter if he’s right, just that we think about it …

    http://tinyurl.com/aezku8

  170. Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 2:51 am

    Not much comment from the group regarding this “provision” in the stimulus package. Seems to me this would be the fastest way to convert this recession into a depression. This is Obama’s best chance to show the world that business as usual here is over. 2nd?
    Casino was packed last night. Much more than usual for super bowl. I agree with Bill’s feeling that Americans understand where we are and are ready to move forward.

    • 2nd_ave(118083 comments)-
      February 2, 2009 at 4:48 am

      Mark- When I hear “Buy American,” it takes me back to the 1974-82 recession. I’m not an economist, but from a common sense perspective, I would be inclined to argue against it as I think it would:

      (a) invite retaliation…one of many examples that occurs to me is whether voluntary agreements that protect intellectual property would continue to be honored…very little stands in the way of illegal copying/reproduction of software, textbooks, film, music, or branded products as it is; once we start limiting free trade, it may go by the wayside..

      (b) reward inefficiency…what incentive would high-cost producers in the US have to lower costs? competition?

      (c) fuel racism/hate crimes…remember the 1982 Vincent Chin case? http://tinyurl.com/5p542c Enough said…

      (d) cause the loss of as many jobs as it creates? if we’re forced to buy (presumably more expensive) materials from domestic producers, then most likely there will be another (domestic) sector seeing fewer dollars…

      JMO…

      • Mark Barry(118083 comments)-
        February 2, 2009 at 5:34 am

        Thanks 2nd. Isn’t this the time then stop this nonsense about American jobs being shipped over seas? Not the time to let the world know we are their trading partners and friends? There was an interesting, although scary, article in the SF Chronicle explaining that the City would be able to buy new buses with money available from the stimulus package. “As for the possibility that much of that money might land over seas, where Muni and AC Transit have purchased potions of their fleet in the past? Not to worry, locals tell us -every dime has a ‘buy American’ requirement'”
        Bill’s TOG is looking better every day.

        • omphalos(118083 comments)-
          February 2, 2009 at 11:47 am

          Mark, this shouldn’t be construed as personal attack, any more than the same criticism I’ll also make of 2nd_Ave.

          It’s more of a big Yes, But…

          I gather the two of you live in the Bay Area. I did too, for 10+ years. ’92 -04. Lived in India for a spell, then SW Ohio for two years. I’m now in Seattle.

          SF’s weltanschauung (if I may be so pedagogical) and its newspaper, the Chronicle, are so out of kilter with the ideals and practicalities of the majority of the other states in our union as to be laughable and indeed derided for their kookiness.

          I just wonder, and hope, both of you have experienced life outside the Bay Area and/or Kalifornia. For your own sake! I think it’s harder to catch trends when one can’t see outside the extraordinary popular delusions and madness of the crowd around you.

          I like your posts, and 2nd_Ave’s as well. They keep the conversation going. Perhaps if I checked in more often I could offer more in the way of constructive criticism of what I see as a distorted perspective stemming from living in SF for too long.

          And since I woke up in the middle of the night and have spent some time looking at last week’s market, I’ll offer my opinion of tomorrow’s action.

          Spike down in the morning following overseas, then an abrupt turnaround following the NAPM report. XLB’s charts since Monday, 26th on the one, five minute and 60 min scales are showing what I’d call a bottom.

          Sorry for the ramble, just caught my eye. I do miss SF, but I’m glad I no longer live there.

          • Johnny(118083 comments)-
            February 2, 2009 at 1:55 pm

            omphalos – It’s going to be a resounding spike if it happens with the DJIA alread -116 and the S&P future @808. I didn’t need that coffee this morning!

      • seadog(118083 comments)-
        February 2, 2009 at 9:55 am

        All protectionism has ever done is increase costs for the country that’s trying to protect its citizens/markets/companies…. artificial barriers never work, never, unless you’re a short term porker. More robbing Peter to pay Paul. Just look at Europe’s food subsidies which simply increase the cost and decrease the quality of food in Europe.

  171. jock(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 3:35 am

    Just before the close on Jan. 27, ECU Silver (an emerging producer) announced a “bought deal financing” with units priced at C$0.70. Each unit consists of 1 share plus 1 five-year warrant at 0.95.

    For 18 trading days, ECU had stayed above 0.77. Since the announcement, the stock has fallen to 0.59. – a loss of 23% in market cap. What happened?

    I don’t know, but have a good guess. If you were a hedge fund manager who held the stock, you probably got an early indication of the financing and its terms.

    If you were holding stock at or above .80, wouldn’t you be well advised to rush out and sell? Even if you were filled at .70-something, you could then buy units at .70 which included a 5 year warrant, with a strike of .95.

    As the stock price climbs towards the warrant strike price, you can sell the stock which came with the unit (for a profit) and keep the (now cost-free) warrants – for up to five years, if stock price appreciation takes that long.

    As long as the company is solid, which ECU (on the verge of commercial production) seems to be, it’s pretty close to free money. The funds do well. The bankers do well (as usual) and the insiders have gotten in at far lower prices than the public.

    If I’m right, what’s the moral of the story? Be aware of the way the private placements are played, and play when you can. (Often, large commitments are not required); The problem is that, by the time the private placement is announced, the short-term damage is either done, or programmed into the stock price.

    And in a thinly traded stock, it’s hard to get out. Isn’t it curious that 4 days before the announcement, 2M shares were traded (way above average) with minimal change to the stock price! I’d love to know the story of those trades.

    (error: ECU trades on TSX, not CVE)

  172. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 3:37 am

    …to throw into amendments to the Stimulus passed last week. I like the idea. it’s a start. but i also think people who have not missed a payment in the past 24 months or more, to be awarded 2% fixed 30 yr. and those in foreclosure but can show income etc, 4% fixed 30 yr.

    Then people with homes can either A) pay down their homes quicker, or B) use the extra cash to save/spend/invest.

    The tax credit works like an interest-free loan and must be repaid over a 15-year period. repayments start in 2010 at $500 per month. the cutoff was singles making up to $75,000 and couples earning $150,000. they scale it down as your earnings go up until $95,000, then you get nothing.

    If they open this up to all home owners and increase to $15,000, i would have to take the lessons of hb&b and buy some gg and auy call contracts with this free loan.

    article here: http://tinyurl.com/cvx3h5

    btw: that last touchdown catch by Holmes was unbelievable! the precision, focus, clutch, and talent to catch and come in-bounds. wow.

    EDIT: Real Homeowners who have no mortgage should also get something too. maybe a $2000 rebate check (not loan).

    And something should be offered to new home buyers who show income and 25% cash deposit. only one losing in this picture is hb&b, but who the heck cares about their well being anymore!? the rise out of this mess should be on the backs of hb&b.

  173. jock(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 3:41 am

    Just before the close on Jan. 27, ECU Silver (an emerging producer) announced a “bought deal financing” with units priced at C$0.70. Each unit consists of 1 share plus 1 five-year warrant at 0.95.

    For 18 trading days, ECU had stayed above 0.77. Since the announcement, the stock has fallen to 0.59. – a loss of 23% in market cap. What happened?

    I don’t know, but have a good guess. If you were a hedge fund manager who held the stock, you probably got an early indication of the financing and its terms.

    If you were holding stock at or above .80, wouldn’t you be well advised to rush out and sell? Even if you were filled at .70-something, you could then buy units at .70 which included a 5 year warrant, with a strike of .95.

    As the stock price climbs towards the warrant strike price, you can sell the stock which came with the unit (for a profit) and keep the (now cost-free) warrants – for up to five years, if stock price appreciation takes that long.

    As long as the company is solid, which ECU (on the verge of commercial production) seems to be, it’s pretty close to free money. The funds do well. The bankers do well (as usual) and the insiders have gotten in at far lower prices than the public.

    If I’m right, what’s the moral of the story? Be aware of the way the private placements are played, and play when you can. (Often, large commitments are not required); The problem is that, by the time the private placement is announced, the short-term damage is either done, or programmed into the stock price.

    And in a thinly traded stock, it’s hard to get out. Isn’t it curious that 4 days before the announcement, 2M shares were traded (way above average) with minimal change to the stock price! I’d love to know the story of those trades.

  174. jock(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 3:51 am

    Just before the close on Jan. 27, ECU Silver (an emerging producer) announced a “bought deal financing” with units priced at C$0.70. Each unit consists of 1 share plus 1 five-year warrant at 0.95.

    For 18 trading days, ECU had stayed above 0.77. Since the announcement, the stock has fallen to 0.59. – a loss of 23% in market cap. What happened?

    I don’t know, but have a good guess. If you were a hedge fund manager who held the stock, you probably got an early indication of the financing and its terms.

    If you were holding stock at or above .80, wouldn’t you be well advised to rush out and sell? Even if you were filled at .70-something, you could then buy units at .70 which included a 5 year warrant, with a strike of .95.

    As the stock price climbs towards the warrant strike price, you can sell the stock which came with the unit (for a profit) and keep the (now cost-free) warrants – for up to five years, if stock price appreciation takes that long.

    As long as the company is solid, which ECU (on the verge of commercial production) seems to be, it’s pretty close to free money. The funds do well. The bankers do well (as usual) and the insiders have gotten in at far lower prices than the public.

    If I’m right, what’s the moral of the story? Be aware of the way the private placements are played, and play when you can. (Often, large commitments are not required.) You have to stay in touch with “your juniors”. The problem is that, by the time the private placement is announced, the short-term damage is either done, or programmed into the stock price.

    And in a thinly traded stock, it’s hard to get out. Isn’t it curious that 4 days before the announcement, 2M shares were traded (way above average) with minimal change to the stock price! I’d love to know the story behind those trades.

  175. David(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 4:12 am

    Some instinct is telling me to be a little more conservative with buying ACI now. So I canceled my buy limit order at $14.50 and moved the other one to $14.25.

  176. Ron Sen(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 11:28 am
  177. NYUGrad(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 12:49 pm

    DJ 7869
    Nasdaq 1476
    S&P 814
    as of 2:32am eastern
    http://tinyurl.com/28u232

    Asia overnight
    http://tinyurl.com/a8qvjq

    Gold Global Spot price down from Friday NY close
    http://tinyurl.com/cq41
    $908.50
    as of 2:35 am Eastern

    EDIT: If we see a lot of volatility and looks like we will with round 2 of stimulus planning, it may be the opportunity i need to get back into gold.

  178. mikede(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 1:02 pm

    The Teachers steps up to complain about poor managment at Petrocan.
    http://gold.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/

  179. Bull Hunter(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 1:13 pm

    Good morning from Pennsylvania, home of the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

    SNDK – Coverage Initiated @ Auriga U.S.A. with a Sell. Price Target = $8

  180. tango6(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 1:23 pm

    Thanks for your thoughts, and your concern for a fellow trader, on GERN. It looked bullish to me – I liked the recent gap up on good volume when the rest of the market was swooning. It’s above MAs (except the 5 hour) and that was a 3mo high it posted. My MACD is bullish but the RSI isn’t. Anyway, I don’t really want to be long anything right now except some form of au & ag. If I do take that girl out, I guarantee it will be only on a short exploratory date.

    Again, multitnx.

  181. Craig(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    All this from the home of American fries?

    Maybe, just maybe, the trouble is the view *outside* SF and California.
    Perhaps those outside should think about how limiting their POV is.
    There are TWO sides to every observation, right?

    As someone born in California (So. Cal.)and then moved to Washington in the 70’s, I see both sides and they both have some merit….but it is true that as California goes, so goes the nation, sooner or later.

  182. tango6(118083 comments)-
    February 2, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    “Spike down in the morning following overseas, then an abrupt turnaround following the NAPM report. XLB’s charts since Monday, 26th on the one, five minute and 60 min scales are showing what I’d call a bottom.”

    Would that be a big bottom or a little bottom? I mean, do you see a multi-day bull rally beginning today?

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