The Four Pillars Trading Solution Morning Notes: April 10, 2014

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                                 Decision Making Architecture for Successful Trading

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April 10, 2014

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Gold rallied up to 1325 overnight, a few dollars higher than our target:

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am_gold

The price of gold has been pulled up by a declining US Dollar:

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am_usd

A dollar decline like the one seen above should have led a much stronger rally in the metal and miners.

The risk ratio chart is not a screaming buy:

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gold_risk_ratio

If the gold rally was strong, price would have moved higher, volume would have been higher during the rally and the risk ratio chart would have been Risk ON.  None of those things occurred, so gold bulls need to be very careful here. 

The US Dollar should find a low soon and gold should reverse course.

END

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  1. Select prices at 1:30 EDT Comex close - June Gold 1321... [#123075]
    By: Stan (335 comments) Go to top ↑

    Select prices at 1:30 EDT Comex close -
    June Gold 1321, May Silver 20.14, May Copper 3.04
    SPX futs 1835, SPX cash 1841, VIX 15.53, NYSE A/D 9:21
    T-10 2.621%, DXY 79.45, WTI crude 103.25

    DXY trying to hold Mendoza line; gold and silver bouncing testing resistance, silver leading today but well off intraday high; SPX testing low print for week; VIX off it’s high for the week; tomorrow should be very interesting going into the weekend close

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64836621623

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOGL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p03050672598
    look at the bearish engulfing bar on GOOGL

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GILD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32038695751
    ditto Gilead; very bearish action

  2. Hi Stan, markets have taken a nasty turn. SPY breaking... [#123076]
    By: johnuk (1183 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi Stan, markets have taken a nasty turn.
    SPY breaking lower than recent lows. and 50 MA.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p47080966750

    TLT doing ok.

    UUP at mid March low

    GLD trying to hang in there.

    CEF +1.29%

  3. Hi John - closing numbers from this side of the... [#123077]
    By: Stan (335 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi John – closing numbers from this side of the pond
    Select prices at 4:00 EDT NYSE close -
    June Gold 1318, May Silver 20.04, May Copper 3.03
    SPX futs 1827, SPX cash 1833, VIX 15.82, NYSE A/D 8:24
    T-10 2.645%, DXY 79.48, WTI crude 103.35
    NYSE tick -748; NAS tick -560

    according to Art Cashin, Thurs wk prior to opex tends to be negative; that may be true, but this negative has broken support

  4. Friday,11th April, 9:20 GMT. FTSE,CAC and DAX... [#123078]
    By: johnuk (1183 comments) Go to top ↑

    Friday,11th April, 9:20 GMT.
    FTSE,CAC and DAX -0.86%,-0.91% to -0.86% Respectively.

    POG $1316 flat
    POS $19.95 flat,
    PLAT. $1454 up marginally,
    PALL $783 flat,
    US dollar Index 79.40 flat.

    Non PM miners

    Antofagasta -1.81%
    BHP (blt) -1.18%
    Glencore Xstrata -0.54%
    KAZ -1.79%
    Rio Tinto -1.46%

    PM miners.

    African Barrick Gold +0.23%
    Fresnillo -0.50%
    Randgold -1.71%

    TECH.
    Arm -4.11%
    Sage -2.96%