Bill Cara’s Blog for Sep 19, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Just as bullish equity market momentum appears to be slowing, the central bank of Japan has announced a Quantitative Easing program, joining the same QE policies of the European Central Bank and the Fed. Minutes of the Bank of England policy makers released today shows all but one of them are in agreement with QE.

Markets in Europe seem undecided at the moment.

Have a good day.


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,158.84 6:38AM EDT Down 10.18 (0.47%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,447.40 4:53AM EDT Down 5.60 (0.23%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,508.61 6:59AM EDT Down 4.08 (0.12%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,343.12 6:38AM EDT Down 4.57 (0.06%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 335.40 6:38AM EDT Down 0.07 (0.02%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 508.26 6:38AM EDT Up 2.28 (0.45%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 339.83 6:44AM EDT Up 0.94 (0.28%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,547.46 6:44AM EDT Up 10.36 (0.16%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,872.05 6:38AM EDT Up 3.89 (0.07%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 969.30 6:59AM EDT Up 2.30 (0.24%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,501.42 7:00AM EDT Down 12.40 (0.82%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 757.25 6:44AM EDT Up 1.27 (0.17%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

  1. 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications 8:30 AM ET Housing... [#113494]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications
    • 8:30 AM ET Housing Starts
    • 10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales
    • 10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
  2. 2 in Buy alert 5 in Distribution Zone 10 in Sell... [#113495]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 2 in Buy alert
    • 5 in Distribution Zone
    • 10 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone (1%): Monthly 2, Weekly 3, Daily 0
    Distribution Zone (29%): Monthly 18, Weekly 41, Daily 29

  3. adding to ' stem '... long term. keeping US based... [#113496]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    adding to ‘ stem ‘… long term. keeping US based companies, as major advancements coming over the next 2 years.

  4. Good morning. 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (-0.2%) 08:30... [#113498]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (-0.2%)
    08:30 Housing Starts
    08:30 Building Permits
    10:00 Existing Home Sales
    10:30 Crude Inventories

    ——

    GSK – GlaxoSmithKline downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas.

    QCOM – PT Lifted from $70 to $72 @ FBR. Outperform

    SCHW – Charles Schwab downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman based on the decline in Agency RMBS yields and NIM headwinds. Price target lowered to $14 from $15.

    ——

    Mining stocks:

    RGLD – Royal Gold downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC based on valuation.

    ——

    “The history of fiat money is little more than a register of monetary follies and inflations. Our present age merely affords another entry in this dismal register.” – Hans F. Sennholz

  5. ALOHA!! Sorry to say that I will not be doing a skype... [#113499]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    Sorry to say that I will not be doing a skype presentation for the CTA Conference 2012 like I originally thought. I have too much on my plate and it does not look like things will let up in time.

    Sorry gang …

    Bill, I appreciate the offer and as usual I am sure the CTA Conference 2012 will be awesome. I have enjoyed participating in the 2009, 2010 and 2011 conferences! Bill, Pat and Stefanie always make every conference a great event.

  6. An interesting... [#113500]
    By: parkmca (38 comments) Go to top ↑
  7. Yesterday, I posted a link to an educational trading... [#113501]
    By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

    Yesterday, I posted a link to an educational trading strategy video where I discussed a common money management mistake among both new and experienced traders, specifically with regard to prematurely raising stops without an objective, technical reason.

    Today, I just posted a short trading strategy article on my blog that discusses a different, and even more dangerous, trade management mistake. It is the opposite problem, which is the much more dangerous mistake of failing to honor your protective stops when they are triggered:

    http://blog.morpheustrading.com/2031

    Hope you find it to be a valuable reminder.

  8. BBBY - Oppenheimer cuts the company to Market Perform from... [#113502]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    BBBY – Oppenheimer cuts the company to Market Perform from Outperform.

    BRCM – Wells Fargo takes the tech stock to Market Perform from Outperform.

    CTSH – target raised at Jefferies. Shares of CTSH now seen reaching $80. Top- line CAGR could be 20%. Buy rating.

    DOW – assigned a Sector Perform at RBC Capital.

  9. if Bam Bam or Runney wins... Bam'er will push harder... [#113503]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    if Bam Bam or Runney wins… Bam’er will push harder alternative energy… Runney will appease both the 47 % and 99 % ( !! ) for 2 nd/ term… Solar beat all to hell right now, but closing in on parity values.. I pass Apple’s massive Sunpower data facility ( and Toshiba agreement to purchase ‘ Large ‘ amounts in coming years for Japan ) weekly. Very impressive

  10. Posted this last night but it was pretty late so I figured... [#113504]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    Posted this last night but it was pretty late so I figured I’d repost for today. Shippers got a nice little bump this morning after yesterday’s uptick in BDI.

    ——————————————-
    Any hope for the shippers?
    Submitted by BillySundance (1208 comments) on Tue, 09/18/2012 – 22:13 #113492
    I read a bloomberg article/interview with shipping magnate John Fredriksen last week and it inspired me to take a look at the shippers.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-09/ship-magn

    Baltic Dry Index just made a little tick up in the last few days, off of historic lows:

    3month
    http://scharts.co/T1a9Mh

    Nice slow upward grind on MACD and RSI just ticked back above 30.

    3year
    http://scharts.co/T1aFtD

    MACD looks about to turn up. Price looks like its trying to put in double bottom following its low in Jan/Feb of this year. RSI narrowly avoided a second drop below 30 followng Jan/Feb.

    I haven’t jumped in with both feet but I’ve been taking off some nice long index positions that I have held for a couple months (to lock in some profit) and replaced with a small bit long dated call options on DRYS, FRO, and DSX. The idea is to retain additional upside if we see follow through on the global rally. These are pure leveraged asset plays so not being too aggressive but I think there may be some considerable upside when the tide turns.

    Would be interested to hear if anyone else has any insight or follows specific companies in the shipping industry.

  11. TED lecture to add to the links provided... [#113505]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    TED lecture to add to the links provided earlier.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuCX92wuw2g&feature

  12. Aetna drops ' qcor ' coverage... ' opxa ' may pick up some... [#113506]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    Aetna drops ‘ qcor ‘ coverage… ‘ opxa ‘ may pick up some notice.. DD

    • Hi Baz; Citron hammered QCOR and has a very simular suit... [#113507]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Baz; Citron hammered QCOR and has a very simular suit against NUS per @Opinterest. I picked up some Oct P30 for $.25 loto ticket. The QCOR sept $45 puts at $.25 yesterday are how halted I believe but last traded around $21.35 – so $1000 dollars would have net $854K – I know, it’s a $250 dollar loto ticket but I’ve done dummer things before;-)

      take care,
      Earl

      todays market action is really dull…

  13. Seems to me despite some Short Term risks of pull back... [#113508]
    By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

    Seems to me despite some Short Term risks of pull back consolidation, Longer Term it is setting up for a L.T Bull Run. Comment ? May be I should buy to hold rather than playing with it in and out – no Freudian pun intended :-)
    FD – bought half position this morning. Aim to buy the other half on pull back.

    • 14them34me, Re MUX, I am pleased and honored to report... [#113520]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      14them34me,

      Re MUX, I am pleased and honored to report that Rob McEwen will be a speaker at the Cara Community conference. I will be announcing others like Rob in the next day or so.

      We still have three available places although a few others have expressed an interest, so this will sell out. More importantly, it is shaping up to be the best conference yet.

      • I am delighted to know that Rob will speak. I have a number... [#113521]
        By: papadynamite (446 comments) Go to top ↑

        I am delighted to know that Rob will speak. I have a number of in depth questions for him. I currently have a core position but have been intraday trading successfully with MUX.
        As for Rubicon, I have also successfully been trading intraday on that stock and have no interest to establish a core position at this time.
        The conference should be a great learning experience for me and looking forward to meeting everyone.

      • all the best and success in your conference, Bill... [#113522]
        By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

        all the best and success in your conference, Bill. Unfortunately I will not be joining you all. I know it would be great to learn from everyone there.

        • Here is an updated TA. Good work on yours by the way, you... [#113524]
          By: Sync (166 comments) Go to top ↑

          Here is an updated TA. Good work on yours by the way, you definitely have a grasp on quite useful TAs such as moving averages. I enjoy using gann and fibb, and so I post them as attachements on this website. However, I do use all of the TAs mentoned in my pdf document I posted a while back.

          With MUX, gann and fibb work really well. Though it seems to have resistance at its current level due to a combination of fibb 38.2% and gann 2×1 (which is a strong gann level) I think it will break through. No signs of reversal at this point.

          I will not be in attendance either, I am not even of drinking age yet, though I am sure many drinks will be circulating! In a few weeks I will be legal to go out and have some fun.

          • Well... my predicted 4.5 got covered and its on the up and... [#113525]
            By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

            Well… my predicted 4.5 got covered and its on the up and up. My next marker is a very unrealistic $7 which I think it will hit by mid/end of November. Then I finally exit my longest LONG ever.

  14. WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. sales of previously occupied homes... [#113509]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

    WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. sales of previously occupied homes jumped in August to the highest level in more than two years, adding momentum to the housing recovery.

    Sales rose 7.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.82 million, the National Association of Realtors said. That’s the most since May 2010, when sales were fueled by a federal home-buying tax credit.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-sales-jump-h

    This is in line with what my real estate agent neighbor told me a month ago. New building is a bargain for anyone with a good job or plenty of cash. He also told me his company’s average sale was $147,000 pre subprime and is now $104,000.

    Any “momentum” is in the high end of the market.

    Grym

  15. "What makes it so devious is a real gold bar is purchased... [#113511]
    By: Bev (804 comments) Go to top ↑

    “What makes it so devious is a real gold bar is purchased with the serial numbers and papers, then it is hollowed out, the gold is sold, the tungsten is put in, then the bar is closed up. That is a sophisticated operation.”

    http://www.myfoxny.com/story/19578206/fake-gold-ba

  16. Short into bounce, very low risk... [#113513]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Short into bounce, very low risk entry

    http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2012/09/sep-19

  17. Discussion of Blankfein's visit to Toronto to address Bus... [#113514]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Discussion of Blankfein’s visit to Toronto to address Bus execs. A brief clip included. He looks so innocuous. Says politicians will do the right thing. ha ha.
    http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip764623

    • "Praise the Llyod" :-) [I still can't get over his comment... [#113515]
      By: Bev (804 comments) Go to top ↑

      “Praise the Llyod” :-)
      [I still can't get over his comment to the English journalist about how he is doing God's work.]

  18. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip764723 and two subsequent... [#113518]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip764723 and two subsequent segments
    Worth a watch, no one is more passionate about energy revolution going on, it’s capital and labor intensive, just what America needs. It will bring back many industries to NA soil. Oops, then unemployment will fall and QE will end. What then?
    Be informed, there are investment opps here.

  19. ... [#113519]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  20. ... [#113526]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑