Bill Cara’s Blog for Sep 13, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

It’s Fed day so we will get the much anticipated announcement out of the way.

While we wait, I want to show you another example of how fibonacci retracement levels can serve as price targets and future pivot points.

I posted this chart on June 29, 2012 on APA with expectations noted:

ggimage04_062912.png

Here is the current chart for APA with new annotations:

ggimage01_091312.png

Should the market move higher today, APA will first find resistance at the 200 dma, but if it clears that level, the next target is the 50% retracement. Both those targets may get hit which will close the two gaps that occurred at the beginning of May.

The iPhone 5 was released yesterday to much fanfare. We are long AAPL, but the new iPhone didn’t blow me away.

I don’t have much more to say prior to the Fed announcement at 12:30 pm. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market popped and then dropped as so many other “sell the news” events have done before so be careful of your stop levels, the bar today may be quite wide.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,134.92 6:43AM EDT Down 14.16 (0.66%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,430.00 5:01AM EDT Down 11.00 (0.45%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,518.56 6:59AM EDT Down 25.23 (0.71%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,315.92 6:44AM EDT Down 27.61 (0.38%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 334.51 6:44AM EDT Down 1.59 (0.47%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 496.38 6:44AM EDT Down 0.12 (0.02%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 333.81 6:59AM EDT Down 0.93 (0.28%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,498.19 6:44AM EDT Up 8.39 (0.13%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,779.81 6:44AM EDT Down 2.27 (0.04%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 956.60 6:59AM EDT Down 7.70 (0.80%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,471.55 6:59AM EDT Down 6.91 (0.47%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 770.90 6:44AM EDT Up 0.37 (0.05%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

  1. 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Producer Price... [#113245]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims
    • 8:30 AM ET Producer Price Index
    • 9:45 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    • 10:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report
    • 11:30 AM ET 30-Yr Bond Auction
    • 2:00 PM ET FOMC Forecasts
    • 2:00 PM ET Treasury Budget
    • 2:15 PM ET Chairman Press Conference
    • 4:30 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet
    • 4:30 PM ET Money Supply
  2. 2 in Accumulation Zone 1 in Buy alert 4 in Distribution... [#113246]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 2 in Accumulation Zone
    • 1 in Buy alert
    • 4 in Distribution Zone
    • 8 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone (3%): Monthly 4, Weekly 3, Daily 4
    Distribution Zone (26%): Monthly 18, Weekly 27, Daily 33

  3. Good morning. 08:30 Jobless Claims (382K) Full gubmint... [#113250]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    08:30 Jobless Claims (382K) Full gubmint malarky here: http://is.gd/unHFuU
    08:30 PPI (+1.7%)
    12:30 FOMC Rate Decision
    14:00 Treasury Budget

    ——

    AAPL – estimates, target raised at Sterne Agee. Shares of AAPL now seen reaching $820. Estimates also increased, as the iPhone 5 will ship sooner than expected. Buy rating.

    AAPL – PT Lifted from $675 to $725 @ FBR. Buy

    AAPL – Apple target boosted at Deutsche. Shares of AAPL now seen reaching $775. New product upgrades should continue to drive growth. Buy rating.

    INTC – Intel downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup citing a lack of catalysts after its channel checks in Asia suggested the negative PC environment is likely to persist over the intermediate term. Citi lowered its price target for Intel shares to $25.75 from $32.

    INTC – PT Lowered from $24 to $22 @ Sterne Agee. Inventory remains high, given lower PC demand. Neutral

    MSFT – “Mister Softee” initiated with a Hold at Jefferies. Target $35

    NKE – Nike downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup citing valuation and the potential for deceleration in futures orders. The firm raised its price target for shares to $101 from $98.

    PDS – Precision Drilling upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo citing valuation and calls the company its top pick among land drillers. The firm raised its price target range for shares to $11-$12 from $7-$8.

    SNDK – estimates, target upped at Morgan Stanley. SNDK estimates were boosted through 2013, Morgan Stanley said. NAND market appears to be improving. Overweight rating and new $52 price target.

    ——

    “If you tried to give rock and roll another name, you might call it ‘Chuck Berry’.” – John Lennon

  4. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is under... [#113251]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is under review today at the FOMC meeting.

    This is a good article that discusses what it is and how it’s more important than CPI:

    http://useconomy.about.com/od/inflationfaq/p/Perso

  5. In light of the recent attacks on the US embassy in Libya... [#113252]
    By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

    In light of the recent attacks on the US embassy in Libya, I suspect we need to reframe the argument:

    1. a video was made which was deemed insulting to Muslim’s

    2. a protest was taking place outside the US embassy in Libya

    3. there are conflicting reports about whether the attack was part of a pre-planned operation, was a spontaneous eruption of the crowd or if extermist militia’s used the crowd as cover to initiate an attack.

    4. respect is important to any civil society, but so is the capacity to be offended and not react with violence. people who take events like these as reasons to generalize about all Muslims being violent or incapable of taking criticism would do well to remember the attack may not have been the result of the video and that a protest was as far as most intended outside of a violent fringe group.

    5. an equal measure of concern goes to those who see this kind of violence as equal to those who incite it. making an insulting video is not equal to carrying out violent attacks in response. freedom of expression is under attack in many ways and far too often claims of “respect and tolerance” are the cover under which we suppress criticism.

    some balance is needed in order to consider this tragic event, the facts as reported aren’t always facts, nor are the background stories and motivations always black and white. for anyone ever involved in a protest you can imagine the feeling of a small group taking the emotional volatility of the moment and turning it into a violent mob scene. the problem at this point is that despite the flurry of media stories we still dont know exactly what happened and if this movie had any real place in the reasons.

    here is a wonderful analysis if you are interested:

    http://scottsworlds.blogspot.com.au/2012/09/extrem

    • My thoughts - at the risk of opening up a can of worms: a... [#113254]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      My thoughts – at the risk of opening up a can of worms:

      a) some muslim people do crazy things; population pyramid says the MENA populations are quite a bit younger than those of the west, on average. younger people tend to act less rationally, a point made by Tuchman in her book about the calamitous 14th century.

      b) some Americans do crazy things too; remember abortion clinic bombings? pro-life people assassinating doctors? Timothy McVeigh blowing up a certain Federal building? Crazy people do crazy things.

      c) the video has terrible acting, low production value, a poorly written script, and it also appears carefully calculated to piss a certain group of people off.

      d) the video was uploaded in 2011, yet only recently translated into arabic; a pretty basic issue, and yet a problem not foreseen by the producer. Perhaps another indication of the relatively low level of intellect surrounding the project.

      Contrast this situation with how the West handled The Life of Brian. Sure there was outrage, but nobody died. Can you imagine the outcome if Monty Python made such a film about a certain Prophet? I’m sure the script would be quite clever, the comedic timing impeccable, the production value excellent, it would likely be a quite enjoyable movie, and as soon as it was translated into arabic, there would be literally bodies everywhere. (I’m assuming better production values and a better script would translate into a higher impact)

      How is it that some cultures have zero tolerance about certain subjects? Why can the West largely handle parody, while MENA literally kills people over it?

      FD: While I have great respect for Jesus, the Life of Brian is one of my favorite movies of all time

      • Another element to the... [#113259]
        By: Ynot (235 comments) Go to top ↑

        Another element to the madness:

        http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1255908-

        To quote a line from one of davefairtex’s favorite movies of all time: “He’s over there…#$&*$#% splitter…”

      • I largely agree with you Dave, One point of difference is... [#113266]
        By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

        I largely agree with you Dave,

        One point of difference is that even in our own north american culture there is a tendency to treat things differently due to various power structures. Due to the legacies of slavery in the US, there is an almost socially acceptable arrangment where you can mock white people but not the other way around.

        White people using the “N word” or other types of mockerly that might be on par with what people say about “crackers” and “honkeys” but its not socially acceptable and would open up a white person to all sorts of threats. Its less to do with a propensity of violence on behalf of black people as it is with the power structures. men might be physically stronger than women but they should not hit them, even if a big guy might use his superior strength against a male opponent; its a different power structure.

        for the “middle east” (which isnt an accurate term but for this discussion lets stick to it) the power structure difference is that the “west” is waging war in several muslim majority nations, there are widespread abuses taking place by western armies (mostly US and British) and movies mocking their religion are like the icing on the cake. add to that as you noted a young and generally impoverished populace that lacks the sexual liberation that western men generally enjoy and you have a cocktail of disaster.

        The movie may have been the spark, it may not have been, it does not justify the use of violence, nor does it tell us that the “middle east” is a violent culture that reacts like this to things.

        In reality the actions of a tiny few tell us very little about what is over 1 billion people. Just as the actions of the KKK tell us very little about the American South, yes there is racism, and many may sympathize w/ the idea of white supremacy that the KKK espouses but not its violent or overt approach, making the KKK not representative of any broad group.

        What concerns me is that this movie may not have anything to do w/ the attacks, but was quickly latched on by the media with little or no real evidence other than the usual source-less “officials say…” or “some senior officials have said…” nonsense.

      • Dave, "While I have great respect for Jesus, the Life of... [#113279]
        By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

        Dave,

        “While I have great respect for Jesus, the Life of Brian is one of my favorite movies of all time”

        That’s because you always look on the bright side of life ;-)

        Grym

  6. I put in a search query 'concrete flatwork Hunt County... [#113253]
    By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

    I put in a search query ‘concrete flatwork Hunt County Texas’ and up pops an Amazon ad ‘concrete flatwork-2 day free delivery.’ I thought I’d order 12,000 square feet of 5″ but when I clicked on it….they wanted to sell me a book!

    I guess the message is becoming the market.

  7. Classic setups just fall in out laps this... [#113255]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Classic setups just fall in out laps this week

    http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2012/09/sep-13

  8. Good morning all... I sold half and riding the free... [#113256]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning all…

    I sold half and riding the free stuff;-) That was a beauty!!! Stocktwits is going crazy over this stuff.

    This is not a recommendation for anyone to buy!!!

    Neuralstem, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of treatments for central nervous system disease based on transplanting human neural stem cells and the use of small molecule drugs. Its stem cell technology enables the isolation and expansion of human neural stem cells from various areas of the developing human brain and spinal cord enabling the generation of physiologically relevant human neurons…

    Earl

  9. I don't like how the Libyan gov't is getting a pass in all... [#113257]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    I don’t like how the Libyan gov’t is getting a pass in all of this. Aren’t they responsible for protecting the US Embassy there? Shouldn’t they be the ones ultimately responsible for controlling the radical right in their country?

    The argument that all muslims are not bad muslims or all arabs are not bad arabs is getting old, no?

    We all know that and its not really the problem. What is the problem is that we likely just tossed out a dictator and replaced him with something just as bad (Islamist radicals). So…until the Middle East (largely populated by arabs/muslims) can get it together and govern itself effectively, I’m all for doing what the Canadians just did in Terhan – pulling out and closing our embassies all across that part of the world.

    East is east and west is west…and never the twain shall meet. Peace.

    • nebish - Geeze Louise, my friend. "I don't like how the... [#113261]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      nebish -

      Geeze Louise, my friend.

      “I don’t like how the Libyan gov’t is getting a pass in all of this. Aren’t they responsible for protecting the US Embassy there? Shouldn’t they be the ones ultimately responsible for controlling the radical right in their country?”

      Libya is in transition with no established gov’t.

      “The argument that all muslims are not bad muslims or all arabs are not bad arabs is getting old, no?”

      I’m sure arabs and muslims view you the same way.

      “We all know that and its not really the problem. What is the problem is that we likely just tossed out a dictator and replaced him with something just as bad (Islamist radicals).”

      By ‘we’ you mean the U.S.? We didn’t toss out a dictator and replace him. We exported inflation to a country with a very low standard of live resulting in a revolution. Muammar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi controlled the best reserves of sweet crude in the world and was under contract to sell it mostly to the U.K. He neglected his people in the process and paid the price just as the House of Saud will eventually succumb to the same fate.

      “So…until the Middle East (largely populated by arabs/muslims) can get it together and govern itself effectively, I’m all for doing what the Canadians just did in Terhan – pulling out and closing our embassies all across that part of the world.”

      Yeah, blame a culture/race/religion on the turmoil. The Middle East has a much longer history of culture/discovery/civilization than the New World. By limiting the use of interest with loans, growth has lagged the West. Is that bad?

      Start with Mesopotamia and then get back to me regarding who knows how to govern best but don’t forget to consider oil exports as a factor in your defense. And remember that it was the West that established oil recovery rights in the Middle East with nomadic tribesmen that put this imbalance into motion in the early part of the 20th century.

      Easy to point fingers, no?

      • One small point of contention, and its really a... [#113319]
        By: jackstone104 (26 comments) Go to top ↑

        One small point of contention, and its really a nuance:
        “By limiting the use of interest with loans, growth has lagged the West. Is that bad?”

        My friends in Jordan claim that the fee associated with Islamic lending, called Murabaha, in which the bank buys the asset up front and then sells it to you ‘interest free’ is usually a much higher rate than would be associated with a normal lending environment. I’m talking 12-15% depending on the value and type of asset being sold. They claim that it is worse and that they would rather borrow under traditional western lending terms, sinful or not, because in absolute terms they pay much less.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murabaha

    • My sense is muslims in MENA are going through a "phase" ... [#113270]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      My sense is muslims in MENA are going through a “phase” – Christians in Europe went through theirs a while ago, but we tend to forget. Anyone remember the Inquisition? Buying Indulgences? Borgia Popes? Popes leading armies? But we are much better now. We can pretend like it never happened and Christianity has always been about love.

      Its pretty clear that not all people in MENA are bad people. Its one of those “duh” sort of arguments. (If they WERE all bad, the level of violence would be very substantially higher). But my sense is, they have a higher percentage of homicidal crazy in their population at the moment.

      Again, imagine judging Christians and Christianity back in the 1450s. How would we have looked back then? But we’re better now, thank God. Mostly anyway.

      All that said, I’d much rather live here than there. I’m not a big fan of crazy, even if I think it is just a phase.

  10. Equity trading has been choppy this morning ahead of the... [#113258]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Equity trading has been choppy this morning ahead of the FOMC decision and press conference as traders await word on Chairman Bernanke’s plans. Few analysts doubt that some sort of easing will be announced, although there is little consensus about what might be in the offing. On the one hand, some say the Fed will restrict itself to more “verbal easing,” with no further asset purchases launched. Others see a possible extension or modification of Operation Twist. Many are calling for a new bond-buying program with big numbers and fixed completion dates, possibly involving mortgage asset buying. Some expect the Fed to signal it is committed to an easy money policy until the economy meets set benchmarks for improvement. In Europe, Greece has been a focus after an IMF official asserted that Athens would require a third bailout, which was met by denials from IMF higher-ups and the Greek finance minister. Front-month WTI crude took out the $98 handle earlier as traders react to unrest in the Middle East and anticipate Fed action.

    Notice that today’s release will be in two stages:

    **At 14:00ET, the Fed will release its updated economic forecasts, which will give it another option for verbal guidance. If more QE is justified due to a waning economy, the Fed may need to revise 2012 and 2013 numbers lower again. The Fed has also indicated it will extend the GDP, Unemployment and inflation forecasts out to 2015 today (through 2014 previously).

    **Bernanke press conference starts at 14:15ET to explain the Fed’s policy changes. One reason QE3 may be expected today is that there is a scheduled press conference so Bernanke will be able to explain the effort thoroughly. If the Fed holds off on QE3 today it will also give Bernanke a chance to shape expectations for when it will come, likely by the Dec 11-12 FOMC meeting which is the next one that includes a press conference. If QE3 comes today, Bernanke will also have to frame the Fed’s reasoning, either concerns about a worsening economy, or emphasizing the Fed’s resolve to steer the economy to a faster recovery.

    Another lukewarm payrolls report last Friday all but guaranteed that the FOMC will take some new action today, the only question is if the committee will go all in today or take a more incremental approach. The latter is the slightly more likely scenario, allowing the Fed to mete out the new stimulus over the next few meetings (today, Oct 24, Dec 12). Under this scenario, the Fed could announce an extension of the low rate pledge today, stretching it to 2015 from the current “late 2014″ date, and then move ahead with the QE3 program in Oct or Dec. Allowing the new stimulus to unfold over two or three meetings would give the Fed the advantage of seeing more incoming data along the way and to avoid some of the stigma of being seen acting during the height of the US election cycle, though Fed governors of all stripes insist that the central bank remains independent and largely ignores the political situation. On the other hand, Bernanke and friends may decide to go all in today with QE3 and an extension of the low rate pledge, though this could provoke more than the usual one-man dissent (Lacker).

  11. *FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25% (AS EXPECTED):... [#113262]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    *FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25% (AS EXPECTED): To buy $40B in agency MBS per month starting friday; extending low rate pledge through at least mid 2015- vote 11-1

    -Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committees holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
    - Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.
    - Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook
    - If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability

    • "- If the outlook for the labor market does not improve... [#113267]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      “- If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability”

      Hat tip to davefairtex: The beating will continue until morale improves.

      That cements it for me: candidate that promises to fire Ben is the one whom I see as beneficial to economy.

      • I don't see how ongoing mortgage securitization and low... [#113268]
        By: Tbolt (169 comments) Go to top ↑

        I don’t see how ongoing mortgage securitization and low rates for another 3 years will help stimulate the economy. Can someone explain?

        • My thought is that just like the last two QE's, this is... [#113273]
          By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

          My thought is that just like the last two QE’s, this is being sold as a move to boost the economy. In REALITY, the primary motive is to sterilize the banking system and help continue to clear our the balance sheets and repair “toxic” assets. The markets benefit from this because of the liquidity that is made available, but the benefits to the real economy are secondary/tertiary – perhaps there is modest trickle down as the balance sheet improvements allow financial institutions and companies to free up capital to make further investment in the economy. With that said, the FED has done a great job of selling this to the media/public as purely about helping the grassroots economy.

          • Billy - the FED has done a great job of selling this to... [#113274]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            Billy -

            the FED has done a great job of selling this to the media/public as purely about helping the grassroots economy

            100% agree. This is an example of how the Fed has had to spin their activities to try and retain popular support. “Ok sure our policies are making sure grandma has no income at all from her savings, but money printing creates jobs! And we’ll keep on printing until all those jobs return!”

            It really runs counter to common sense. If direct money printing created jobs, we should have been doing it a long time ago. And if a little money printing creates a few jobs, why not do a LOT of money printing. Surely that will create a LOT of jobs. Right?

          • Billy, absolutely, and very well... [#113277]
            By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

            Billy,

            absolutely, and very well put.

          • Very well said, indeed, Billy. You beat me to it... [#113287]
            By: Ynot (235 comments) Go to top ↑

            Very well said, indeed, Billy.

            You beat me to it, Vad.

          • Thanks... [#113289]
            By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

            Thanks fellas

      • (Hat tip to davefairtex: The beating will continue until... [#113286]
        By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

        (Hat tip to davefairtex: The beating will continue until morale improves).

        Agree – I’m listening to Ben and he sounds like a desperate, without-confidence man. Regardless, for the average person on the street this can’t be good in any way – he keeps saying it’s complicated – that’s true – this government has made it that way.

        Stopped out of SLB puts, Out of TBT and into TLT calls for a trade.

        Earl

    • ... [#113275]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑
  12. http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html Let's see if it... [#113263]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑
    • hadn't refreshed the futures heat chart doc. Was wondering... [#113264]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      hadn’t refreshed the futures heat chart doc. Was wondering what drugs you were smoking. Looking a tad greener now. Was looking for ashort setup in the miners lol.

      I had noticed PLAT and PAL getting bid up with the gold and silver capped. Wondering if it was usual preFOMC behaviour. But still, $40B a month? A drop in the bucket of the debt we’re deleveraging.

      Still obeying the technicals, but like the Iphone5, fundamentally it’s nothing to ring home about…

  13. Shorted NFLX with some puts, still holding TBT calls long... [#113260]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Shorted NFLX with some puts, still holding TBT calls long but stops in place because I’ll be out of pocket until afternoon. Also bought some SLB puts this morning;-) Good luck all with the ben b thing.

    take care,
    Earl

    PS- QE = gas price increase = tax on everyone who needs to drive…

  14. "QE3 at $40 billion per month but no end date." ... [#113265]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    “QE3 at $40 billion per month but no end date.” – Econoday

    That’s inflationary. Negative bond rates should get the money out and into equities, right Ben?

  15. Gold Orbiter: We have separation at 1750 with all systems... [#113269]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    Gold Orbiter: We have separation at 1750 with all systems go. Guidance on target. Over.

    Houston: Check. Guidance on target. Begin throttle up to 1800. Over.

    Gold Orbiter: Begin throttle up. Over.

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

    • Just like we bounced off 1530 area 3 Times....on... [#113271]
      By: basketguy (90 comments) Go to top ↑

      Just like we bounced off 1530 area 3 Times….on gold…

      Something tells me we hit a ceiling one more time near 1800 for some consolidation….

      Call me crazy I know…

    • Say, Dr... when at 12:15 GLD dropped a dollar and half in a... [#113272]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      Say, Dr… when at 12:15 GLD dropped a dollar and half in a matter of a few seconds, why haven’t we gotten any witty quotes about drilling to the earth core from you?

      Silence on adverse direction, overzealous cheering on favorable one… They call it bias I think.

      • Vad - "Silence on adverse direction, overzealous cheering... [#113278]
        By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

        Vad -

        “Silence on adverse direction, overzealous cheering on favorable one… They call it bias I think.”

        Guilty. That was a strange drop. Large position jitters from the Soro’s desk?

        No time line on buying bad Fan and Fred paper was predicted by some. I agree with you that the line has been drawn by the candidates regarding Ben’s future and that will be the next key fundamental factor affecting the PMs even though Romney, if elected, will just replace him with another goober who speaks in tongues.

        • btw, $1770 is Armstrong's all important monthly bullish... [#113281]
          By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

          btw, $1770 is Armstrong’s all important monthly bullish reversal point. Let’s see if it can clear and hold it.

          • So interesting. Earlier this morning, gold bounced off 1720... [#113282]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            So interesting. Earlier this morning, gold bounced off 1720 (exactly) on that pre-Fed pounding, which Armstrong said was the important support level. Now, gold has ramped and is camping right at 1770, while SPX is just getting bought, and bought…

            Market behavior is really fascinating sometimes.

          • Just noticed it, thanks to Jesse, that $GOLD has put in a... [#113285]
            By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

            Just noticed it, thanks to Jesse, that $GOLD has put in a nice cup. Yeh I’d be raising stops were I in this short term. A nice handle to come with it in November/December? – on my Santa wish list.

  16. I want to see the close. Sold TNA and AEM positions into... [#113276]
    By: bsi87 (1171 comments) Go to top ↑

    I want to see the close.

    Sold TNA and AEM positions into the jump.

  17. Took some profits and moved a little back to cash today... [#113283]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    Took some profits and moved a little back to cash today (lite pruning). Such euphoria must be bottled up and saved for a rainy day.

  18. My quick thoughts on the move in gold today: big jump up... [#113284]
    By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

    My quick thoughts on the move in gold today:

    big jump up then a bit of a settling down towards 1760 as I write

    nice to see gold make any sort of bullish move, especially on the back of QE3

    what concerns me though is a follow through, right now we witnessed a $30-40 move over what should have been a fairly shocking announcement. was the recent run up from the 1600′s part of a baking in process?

    im not entirely convinced of any move to new highs, it almost seems too easy, too well timed with this announcement. i hope i am wrong, but i also hope the move off the lows can establish a longer term uptrend

  19. EUR/USD went from 1.30 in early-May, to 1.20 in mid-July... [#113288]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    EUR/USD went from 1.30 in early-May, to 1.20 in mid-July, and back to 1.30 by mid-September. That’s quite a roundtrip! Makes me very glad I made that France trip this summer and enjoyed some of those cheap Euros while they lasted! I think this makes a great example of how central banks working together can really serve to paint the picture they want – in this case the plummeting EUR this summer really helped the ECB sell the public on their bond purchasing plans.

    As I mentioned last week in regards to Russell 2000 (^RUT), we finally broke above that 840 level and are in this 840-860 zone. Post-financial crisis highs for ^RUT was 868.57 on May 2, 2011. Looks like we are on our way to a new high shortly (maybe later today!?). With that said, I think we are quite frothy, this much awaited FED move is the grinding of the axe. The swinging of the axe occured in the weeks leading up to this.

    $RUT:$SPX is not all that strong today, meaning small caps are not outpacing the pack today (after leading the march for several weeks)., Amongst the bullish backdrop of today’s action, it gives me a bit of pause that the smaller caps aren’t continuing their outperformance streak:

    http://scharts.co/O1ZEGH

    I wouldn’t be surprised to see us make new highs on ^RUT (or get really close and fail) on ^RUT simply to expunge the shorts and then prompt a pullback to establish new support levels.

  20. just came across this piece, it shows a pro-US rally in... [#113290]
    By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

    just came across this piece, it shows a pro-US rally in Libya expressing regret for the attacks. while one can argue if this is as much a propaganda piece as it is honest, it reveals another side to a nation so often vilified in our media. at times we get caught up in the notion that “they” meaning an entire nation or religion hate “us” or hate “america” another entire nation made up of people w/ different views.

    things are very often more grey.

    http://www.salon.com/2012/09/13/moving_pictures_of

  21. Earl, Grym, are you guys watching the moves on $TNX... [#113291]
    By: Ynot (235 comments) Go to top ↑

    Earl, Grym, are you guys watching the moves on $TNX today?

    It hit the 200 dma at 1.84 mid-day, then peeled right back since.

    I guess $40B a month in MBS purchases will light a fire and create some bids in the 10′s…;)

    • Yes. I sold my treasury bond mutual fund a while back for a... [#113295]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

      Yes. I sold my treasury bond mutual fund a while back for a 4.38% gain in just under 9 months and gradually have been switching into TLT.

      I removed my stops yesterday AM before the EU action and today’s Fed blathering. My guess was while we could get a rather violent move which will only be temporary. I see the 10 yr was at 1.84 on 8-15 and bounced back rather quickly.

      Until rates are actually raised (certainly not before the election) I am pretty comfortable sitting tight. I take today’s bounce back as comforting.

    • Hi Ynot - I posted my trade on this last night and it just... [#113294]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Ynot – I posted my trade on this last night and it just so happened to play out good so far, I sold my TBT calls and bought the Oct126 TLT calls for $.62, looking at bid of $.71… just took a tiny profit – I’m mostly flat with 75% cash but did something probably nuts and just bought some FB calls;-)

      Crazy market but it’s going to cause more short covering I suppose.

      Earl

  22. Dave, we were wrong - beating will continue even as morale... [#113292]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Dave, we were wrong – beating will continue even as morale improves, see bold part below

    (US) Fed’s Bernanke: Employment situation remains a grave concern, 8.1% unemployment remains elevated and little changed since the beginning of 2012 – FOMC press conf

    - Monetary policy cannot cure all economic problems.
    - Modest pace of economic growth is inadequate.
    - Fed is looking to support gains in housing and other sectors.
    - Buying MBS should help reduce long term rates and support the housing recovery.
    - Looking for broad based growth and sustained improvement in labor markets
    - Will take inflation into account when making asset purchases.
    - Accomodation will remain even as the economy improves.
    - See an uncertain economic outlook, economy still faces headwinds.
    - Headwinds include crisis in Europe and tight credit.

    Nice attempt at calling black white and vice versa follows:

    - Notes wish to address 3 misconceptions:
    - 1: Idea of Fed’s “printing money” policy is akin to Govt spending – Easing and bond buying is not like government spending and ultimately Fed’s policies may bring down deficit and debt
    - 2: Low rates hurt savers – Low interest rates impose some costs on savers, but also supports value of other assets. Low interest rate environment ultimately supports a stronger economic condition which ultimately allows stronger wages and employment for the economy
    - 3: Fed’s Policies will raise inflation risk down the road – Fed has the tools it needs to deal with inflation, which has been at or near 2% goal for years. Policies do not seek to raise inflation. If inflation goes above inflation targets Fed will take a balanced approach to bring it down

    • Vad - The attempt of Bernanke to put a populist spin on... [#113293]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      Vad -

      The attempt of Bernanke to put a populist spin on frankly pro-banker policies is to be expected, I think. He desperately needs cover, and the number of people out there on the fringes of MSM that are bashing his policies are getting larger. Pretty clearly the 3 big questions came directly from these people on the fringes. Perhaps its The Big Lie attempt; just keep repeating The Big Lie and maybe enough people will just believe what you say.

      He actually admitted that low rates do hurt savers, and that he’s picking winners. Savers lose, asset owners win. So – run out and buy assets, please, or else he’s going to keep printing money until you do. That’s because he knows best about what price level assets should be at – the (formerly) free market is just plain wrong. Stupid free market.

      And what’s more he’s directly contradicting himself about inflation. His policies DO seek to raise inflation – in asset prices – in order to motivate people to buy assets. And he claims he’s going to “deal with” inflation, but I’m betting he’ll keep things accommodative even after a “recovery” starts – which means IF we get a recovery it will only be in nominal terms, we’ll have zero interest rates, and some serious inflation.

      Sorry grandma, you had your money in the bank, which wasn’t what Ben Bernanke wanted you to do, so you lose.

      Man. Did we actually win the cold war? Is that Gorbachev I hear laughing in the background?

  23. If gold was rallying in anticipation of QE by the US Feds... [#113296]
    By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

    If gold was rallying in anticipation of QE by the US Feds the last couple of months, now that it’s here, what else can drive it higher without at least a pause ?

    • Short covering maybe, dollar destruction will help exports... [#113298]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Short covering maybe, dollar destruction will help exports of… oh yah, we export something – chemicals.

      my dog stryker standing guard;-). everyone needs a guard dog…

      • my watch dog would just watch... [#113302]
        By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

        my watch dog would just watch …..

        • Hi ya 14them34me - Nice pic! I'm about to join them;... [#113305]
          By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

          Hi ya 14them34me – Nice pic! I’m about to join them;-) LOL

          It’s looking like everyone is going to print $$$. I talked to a real estate friend and she was telling me even the refi market is in the tank, still in the tank that is. If you want to refi your existing home good luck; she said although rates are low they want everything but your sperm, I’m sure that’s coming. It’s also been said that some PMI is 3 times what it was 2 years ago – that’s crazy. Used Homes are not moving but for some new construction sucking in first timer buyers. I listened closely to what Ben had to say today, but found myself more interested in how he was saying it. His voice seemed pretty despondent. I guess the bottom line for me is this; if the nation is not growing, expanding, generating wealth then it’s dying and these people are doing what they can to juggle the balls and make it appear to be living when in fact this is all life support for the terminally ill. Without consumption there is no growth – only these bankers continue sucking the life out of everything that moves. Greed is not good, in and of itself… sigh,
          take care,
          Earl

    • 14them34me - "If gold was rallying in anticipation of QE... [#113303]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      14them34me -

      “If gold was rallying in anticipation of QE by the US Feds the last couple of months, now that it’s here, what else can drive it higher without at least a pause ?”

      Rising gold price means a falling United State Reserve Note, for those trading in that zero-term debt derivative :) All major currencies (Euro, USD, Yen, Yuan, Sterling) are ‘printing’ on a coordinated basis in a currency war to inflate away debt with gold as the constant in the equation 8(

  24. Today was a nice day for the utilities stocks as the FED... [#113301]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    Today was a nice day for the utilities stocks as the FED confirmed further easing. However, going into today, utilities really spent a good month and a half languishing. XLU topped in early-August, shortly after ^TNX (10-year yield) bottomed around 1.4%.

    http://tinyurl.com/9ycxzb6

    Since then XLU has languished a bit while the 10-year yield climbed back closer to 1.8%. Here is the ratio chart for XLU:$TNX for last few months:

    http://scharts.co/O2crJ7

    Now that the FED has confirmed further easing, I think the ^TNX may look to test that 1.4% level in the short-term and I think it may serve to chase utility stocks back up. After all, XLU is yielding close to 4% while ten year yield is only 1.4%. Another factor to consider is that electricity prices are historically correlated to natural gas prices, which seem to have finally bottomed out.

    The utils are always are boring, “watching paint dry” kind of trade but for those looking to get some market exposure without having to delve into lower quality riskier stocks, this might be a trade worth keeping an eye on. I have been adding some util names to the port in the last week or two after not holding them for awhile.

  25. It's preaching to the converted here, but I found this a... [#113304]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    It’s preaching to the converted here, but I found this a good read.

    “If it was mal-investment and stupidity of a criminally incompetent financial and regulatory class that got us into our current mess, it is not clear how compounding the errors should make anything better.

    The facts do not seem to matter because omnipotent governments are sure to launch yet another bailout for every investor, however misguided they may seem. This is despite the fact that many of these governments are effectively bankrupt. By continuously manipulating the markets, policymakers are perpetrating in plain sight the most gigantic Ponzi scheme known to mankind.”

    Fed actions favor the wealthiest 10-20% who own 80-90% of financial assets and real estate (outside of residences). Delaying restructuring imbalances means cost to society (the rest of us) much higher later. Capitalism: efficient allocation of capital to where it earns its best return….RIP. We’re lost in a masquerade.

    http://www.ci.com/web/portfolio_mgmt/trident/pdf/c

  26. Subject language may give a new "Twist" to the recent... [#113306]
    By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

    Subject language may give a new “Twist” to the recent discussion here of the term “QE to infinity”. No more numbering. Just carry on to ad infinitum. LOL.

    • Illini - I have to say, "open-ended QE" is the closest... [#113314]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      Illini -

      I have to say, “open-ended QE” is the closest thing to a QE to Infinity I’ve yet seen.

      However in practical terms, its half a trillion a year. The Federal Government is “printing” more money (and more effectively, I might add) through its deficit spending of 1.3 trillion. Both together don’t measure up to what the real credit market did during the bubble years – that was “printing” 5 trillion per year for perhaps 6 years, give or take. Now THAT is real money printing. Its no wonder we had such a fun bubble experience!

      Still, its clear that Fed money printing will likely raise asset prices. Which prices, God only knows. Stocks, bonds, commodities, possibly houses. That’s Ben’s entire goal: raise asset prices. Presumably that will make people feel wealthier, start to spend (and more importantly BORROW), that will create jobs (probably in China) and things will pick up again. Or so the theory goes. Never mind our current debt burden, highest in 2 generations, that needs reducing. Ben doesn’t like debt reduction, since that’s deflationary. Debt must ever and always increase, otherwise – deflation!

      More debt, higher debt burdens, more spending – “growth” is the goal. Good luck doing that with Peak Cheap Oil firmly in place. World going into recession and we have $100 oil.

      Which of my 5-year scenarios is in play now?
      - USG deficit 7T, Fed partial debt monetization, 2.5 trillion over 5 years.

      I don’t think hyperinflation is in the offing – at least not with this trajectory.

      • ALOHA!! I don't think hyperinflation is in the offing - at... [#113316]
        By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

        ALOHA!!

        I don’t think hyperinflation is in the offing – at least not with this trajectory.

        Don’t worry about hyperinflation we are all being strangled well enough with the US FED official CPI 2% target! Now imagine America today with a 1980 CPI rate of 8.4%. By definition an 8.4% rate is not “hyper” either …

        Given the current official US FED 2% CPI target rate what would the following price points look like with an official US FED 8.4% CPI? I just got a note from my box supplier that cardboard box prices for FedEx shipping will rise 10% starting Oct 1st. The last 10% increase was in Jan! What product isn’t shipped in a box? My HMSA healthcare insurance just got raised 4.5% in July. Regular gasoline is now $4.39 in Hawaii, 5% higher than last month. Who needs hyperinflation when we’re already being medium boiled to the poor house …

      • So, half a trillion a year is good for kicking the $USD off... [#113318]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        So, half a trillion a year is good for kicking the $USD off course, and hopefully if I were in Ben’s shoes, helping it resume its long-term downward trajectory.

        That’s gonna do what? Continue exporting inflation; kicking China in the teeth, along with many other developing nations, remembering that oil prices are linked to food prices. Little wonder that China is becoming a monster hoarder of gold:

        http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/the-chinese-are-

        NY and London can continue fixing the futures price, but there’s an increasing possibility that bullion and paper prices diverge at some point, if bankers keep throwing money around like its confetti. Your move Mr Draghi. No doubt Merkel et al. do not want to see a medium term strengthening of the Euro. If the plan is now to save Greece, they need a cheaper Euro to help boost competitiveness.

        Even Mr King of the BoE must be a little exasperated to see the Pound looking closer to testing 4 year highs. And England is in worse trouble economically than the States if I understand correctly.

        Beggar-thy-neighbour will continue after the following announcement…

  27. Yes, she was a beauty ! Hope all is well.. After the past... [#113307]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    Yes, she was a beauty ! Hope all is well.. After the past two weeks, I have a new found respect for mountain goats ( cows, deer, etc.. !! ).. Things going good, and the weather is perfect… Take care, and, Nice trades.. good going.

  28. "What will restrain them. The difference is that the US has... [#113309]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    “What will restrain them. The difference is that the US has no Merkel, just Urkel. Or Herman Munster. Take your pick.” – Jesse’s Americain Cafe

    “Problem is the damage is global and the damage is done. There is no ‘Magic MBS Bus’ at CNBC that will restore confidence.” Stephen ‘kaimu’ Wellman

    “They call it bias I think.” – Vad

    “The Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month … If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price
    stability.” – Fed Chairman Greenspan

    “When you do that again and again, you distrust the invisible hand of Adam Smith, so to speak, and you trust the hand of the political class in central banks and in governments. I really doubt that bureaucrats know better than the markets how to allocate money and assets in our world” – Felix Zulauf today at KWN

    • I'd prefer to be quoted on this: "Candidate that promises... [#113310]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      I’d prefer to be quoted on this:

      “Candidate that promises to fire Ben is the one whom I see as beneficial to economy.”

      • Vad - "Candidate that promises to fire Ben is the one whom... [#113311]
        By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

        Vad -

        “Candidate that promises to fire Ben is the one whom I see as beneficial to economy.”

        Too bad Ben knows that and decided to do something about his job security today. How does it go? If your neighbor gets laid off it’s a recession but if you get laid off it’s a depression and Ben’s a student of The Great Depression, you know.

  29. OK ..apple apple apple ... RIM is now $7.43, they have the... [#113312]
    By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

    OK ..apple apple apple … RIM is now $7.43, they have the Blackberry 10 coming out later in the year, the touch screen thing is happening and they still offer a great PUSH email technology and level of security that other toy phones struggle to match or even understand the business environments which enjoy it. Scenario , if DELL or Facebook decided to buy RIM now , what would happen to this companies stock price?. For me its always been a great product and I think something can happen here, and its going to happen this year. Thoughts?

    Les?, I still recall our Marvel conversation years ago here and shortly after DIS bought them and the rest is history. I see similar potential here , RIM have a good product with intellectual property and its going dirt cheap. When that happens they get snapped up by someone bigger.

    • Ventilation Blues - Wasn't Nokia an ultra boring Finnish... [#113313]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      Ventilation Blues -

      Wasn’t Nokia an ultra boring Finnish utility that purchased a tech company and transformed itself into a RIM high flyer before anyone heard of RIM and then watch marketshare collapse? IMO, that’s not a M&A model to emulate in the space. Anyway, these smart phones are too trendy to predict the winner for more than three months at a time. Just thinking out loud.

  30. ALOHA!! We have Ben announcing open ended MBS purchases... [#113315]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    We have Ben announcing open ended MBS purchases running at $40B per month. The more the US FED Balance Sheet grows the more I am wondering how and when they will ever pull off a smooth exit. Past historical performance shows the US FED does nothing smooth, except maintain their “cone of silence”! Said FED Balance Sheet needs to revert back to historical norms at some point.

    Lets move over to the US Treasury. Ben will pump $40B into MBS while the US Treasury will pump the following monthly numbers based on current FY2012 YTD:

    Net outlays – $350B
    Net Debt – $109.2BIL
    Total = $459.2BIL monthly

    All against monthly net tax revenues of $144.8B.

    Helping out Ben is the US Treasury GSE Investment line item with $73BIL YTD in returns against $200BIL still owed in TARP. Problem is the US Treasury is selling off its GSE holdings so that “return” line item will become a net negative against the TARP/DIF outlays. Once again Ben comes to the rescue of Tim. As Treasury sells the FED buys. What event or events would inflate those MBS “assets” so that the US FED could exit those positions with an actual “unfair market value” profit? Or is the US FED just a toxic sponge, acting as another FDIC for MBS trades gone wild?

    I look forward to seeing the US Treasury debt numbers for Sept 13th that are posted tomorrow after 11AM EST. I think there will be fireworks …

  31. ALOHA!! This is an update on Silver Lake Res(ASX:SLR) from... [#113317]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    This is an update on Silver Lake Res(ASX:SLR) from a financial released Sept 3rd …

    Gold producer Silver Lake Resources (ASX: SLR) has delivered a bumper set of results for financial year 2012, with net profit up 97.4% to $31.175 million.

    Other impressive metrics from the ASX 200 listed company included:
    - Revenue up 50.4% from $89,982,000 to $135,338,000;
    - Basic earnings per share up 73.2% from 8.83c per share to 15.29c per share;
    - Net cash from operating activities up 88.5% from $33,346,000 to $62,869,000;
    - Cash and cash equivalents up 324% from $16,085,000 to $68,249,000;
    - Gold sold up 28.8% from 64,703 ounces to 83,347 ounces;
    - Ore tonnes mined up 76.9% from 405,525 tonnes to 717,076 tonnes; and
    - Construction of Murchison project 60% complete.

    Then there are the numbers for the recent IGR merger …

    With Silver Lake recently making an offer of $426 million for Integra Mining (ASX: IGR) – the completion of the deal would add significant Resources of 2.1 million gold ounces and Reserves of 0.5 million gold ounces to the company.

    Silver Lake would then have total Resources of 6.6 million ounces, along with Reserves of 1.8 million ounces, a mill capacity of 3.4mtpa with a land holding of around 5000 square kilometres – plus upside Resource / Reserve potential with drilling ongoing.

    The outcome of this deal would power Silver Lake to produce between 255,000 to 295,000 gold ounces in FY13, and a further increase to 400,000 gold ounces in FY14. This would transform the company into one of Australia’s largest gold producers.

    The new Silver Lake would then have a market cap. over $1 billion, with a warchest of $107 million in cash.

    I do not know any gold producers listed on any exchange who have announced that they will be more than quadrupling current production(85k au) by 2014. I do not think the current share price has priced in 5% of that. I have held SLR for 3.5 years now and I have not seen management miss stated operational goals. Having been profitable since inception is a remarkable performance for a junior. Obviously management is spot on!