Bill Cara’s Blog for Oct 19, 2011

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Top of the morning to you. A bit of green. And some good news from the maker of Guinness. Volume growth as well as pricing power!

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=49589041

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Have a good day.


(7:15am ET) Good morning, Geoff here.

Yesterday, following an initial sell off based on bad economic news from China, news that France and Germany had agreed to increase the bank bail out fund pulled the market higher. The rally probably sucked a number of traders into the long side right at the top of the trading range. We shall see if that higher risk trade works out for them.

As long as the recent lows in the dollar hold, getting long equities has heightened risk at these levels, imo. The market may move higher, into new highs for the S&P 500, but the higher probability trade is to sell into this strength. Traders can always buy a future breakout, missing a few percent of the rally. Of course, that trade is made much easier if the trader bought the weakness and fear found at the October lows as we did.

There are a number of indicators pointing towards overbought conditions. Have you ever used the McClellan oscillator? It is definitely overbought –

http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/

In other news:

Moody’s downgrades Spain citing continuing issues with the Euroland debt.

Shocker – Apple released earnings after the close, missing on both earnings and revenue.

Cara 100 stock Intel shipped more chips than ever before and enjoyed record earnings as a result of high laptop sales. Demand for chips in Brazil and China was high – maybe we need to look a little deeper into those two countries right now.

Abbot Labs shares have jumped on slightly better than expected earnings and the news that the company will split into two publicly traded companies. One will focus on pharma and biotech, the other on medical devices, diagnostics and generic medicines.

Morgan Stanley (not in the Cara 100) posted a $2.15 billion profit as core revenue in trading, banking and wealth management operations fell. The stock broke out of a nice technical pattern yesterday but we are not buying it – the stock or the number. The profit was not due to expanding business activity, it was helped by a large accounting gain. It is difficult to get on board these financials when so much of their business is accounting trickery. Until the banks value all of their holdings on a mark to market basis, this will continue. We applaud their accounting firm…MS, not so much.

We are at a significant juncture right now. It is time for the bulls to put up or shut up. Focus on earnings and news out of Europe. Or, you can simply focus on the US Dollar which may be the only thing we need to watch. We have a long candidate list of about 15 stocks with strong earning estimates that we may be purchasing should the market find continued strength.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 1,951.90 Oct 18 Down 73.10 (3.61%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,155.67 6:58AM EDT Up 18.62 (0.87%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,178.54 6:58AM EDT Up 37.44 (1.19%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 5,959.23 6:44AM EDT Up 81.82 (1.39%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 303.56 6:43AM EDT Up 4.88 (1.63%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 422.59 6:43AM EDT Up 2.04 (0.49%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 295.82 6:42AM EDT Up 0.64 (0.22%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 5,720.34 6:42AM EDT Up 37.83 (0.67%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,471.02 6:44AM EDT Up 60.67 (1.12%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 938.00 6:58AM EDT Up 12.90 (1.39%) Chart, More
ESI500000000.MA IGBM 893.74 6:40AM EDT Up 7.32 (0.83%) Components, Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,428.73 6:42AM EDT Up 3.49 (0.24%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 751.60 6:42AM EDT Up 13.52 (1.83%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth

Look out gang, markets moved one way yesterday on news that something happened after moving another way amidst something global and largely attributed to large groups such as “traders”, “economists” or “speculators”.

The big indexes are at support levels but could fall below them, or rise above them, so plan your trade and trade your plan. The dollar, the SPY, the DJIU and gold are all at key levels that could mean something or not depending on the outcome of a bill by congress that is to be discussed for the next 6 months and will appear in and out of the news whenever justification is needed for a move in the market.

People are awaiting what the speechwriters for the President have decided he will say in order to calm or excite markets depending on how editors demand economists cover the story in newspapers that will feature clips of bankers saying things like:

we foresee a possible scenario unfolding in which a contracting of relative growth year over year takes place towards the end of the quarter, offset by gains in sectors that lagged in Q1 due to concerns over a decline in growth and real GDP fluctuations that loomed large over businesses

News reports will go on to present the opposite point of view to show how balanced they are in the hopes that they will convince readers they will be informed by reading their publication:

In spite of the strong warning, such and such economist felt there is reason for optimism in the not too distant future, just far enough in time to revise their forecast if it proves wrong, but close enough to take credit for being able to predict the future if things go even remotely close to their prediction. As quoted from a large respected banker who’s title is drawn out to give the air of respectability such as: Senior Allocation Strategist and Econimist with The Bank of Such and Such’s Global Wealth Management Trust and Research Division.

All in all its shaping up to be a great session ahead, one which will test the mettle of bulls, bears, birds and bees….

Good luck, its a crazy market out there….. ;)


  1. 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications 8:30 AM ET Consumer... [#98015]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications
    • 8:30 AM ET Consumer Price Index
    • 8:30 AM ET Housing Starts
    • 10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
    • 2:00 PM ET Beige Book
  2. 1 in Accumulation Zone 2 in Buy alert 2 in Sell... [#98016]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 1 in Accumulation Zone
    • 2 in Buy alert
    • 2 in Sell alert
  3. IFR markets have provided us with some facts and figures... [#98017]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    IFR markets have provided us with some facts and figures. Disbursements to date and expected issuances by Italy and Spain plus discussion of the interconnection between the EFSF and France’s AAA status.

    http://bit.ly/nUyNuB

  4. Top three weekly gainers on TSX and TSX-V were PMV.V... [#98018]
    By: c2ski (94 comments) Go to top ↑

    Top three weekly gainers on TSX and TSX-V were PMV.V, MMM.TO and LVN.V

    http://www.highgradereview.com/top-weekly-gainers/

  5. ... [#98020]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑
  6. Abbott to Separate into Two Leading Companies in... [#98021]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    Abbott to Separate into Two Leading Companies in Diversified Medical Products and Research-Based Pharmaceuticals

    http://www.abbott.com/press-releases/2011-oct19-2.htm

    • Geoff, The key difference being that the diversified... [#98026]
      By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

      Geoff,

      The key difference being that the diversified medical products business will generate nearly 40 per cent of its sales in high-growth emerging markets.

  7. ... by... [#98023]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    … by Stratfor

  8. ... [#98022]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑
  9. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer prices rose a... [#98024]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in September, while so-called core prices rose a lesser 0.1%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The core data, which posted its smallest increase since March, strips out volatile food and energy costs. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast CPI to rise 0.3% overall, with a 0.2% increase in the core rate. Consumer prices have jumped an unadjusted 3.9% over the past year. The core rate has risen at a slower 2.0% pace, unchanged from August. The increase in prices in September was led by gasoline and a wide variety of groceries. In a related report, the government said average hourly wages adjusted for inflation fell 0.1% in September, seasonally adjusted.

    ——

    Thanks again, Ben.

  10. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Housing starts surged 15% in... [#98025]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Housing starts surged 15% in September to the highest level in one-and-a-half years, according to data released Wednesday, aided by increased demand for rental stock as well as rebuilding after Hurricane Irene. The Commerce Department said starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 658,000, which also is 10.2% above the September 2010 reading and the best level since April 2010 – the month the homebuyer tax credit expired. The figures were well ahead of the 590,000 forecast in a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll, but single-family starts rose a more modest 1.7% to 425,000, which is only a two-month high. The less-volatile building permits figures declined 5% to 594,000, and single-family permits eased 0.2%. August’s reading on housing starts was modestly revised higher to 572,000 from 571,000, and August’s reading on permits was revised higher to 625,000 from an initial reading of 620,000.

    ——

    One word : apartments

  11. For those who were waiting for its release, as we discussed... [#98028]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    For those who were waiting for its release, as we discussed a little while ago, it’s coming: http://www.slashgear.com/asus-eee-pad-transformer-

  12. Average realised selling prices: Copper $3.60/lb. Gold... [#98027]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    Average realised selling prices:

    Copper $3.60/lb.
    Gold $1693/oz.

    Diluted EPS of $1.10 vs $1.24

  13. AAPL - estimates, target increased at Morgan Stanley. AAPL... [#98029]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    AAPL – estimates, target increased at Morgan Stanley. AAPL estimates were raised through 2013. iPhone continues to drive growth. Overweight rating and new $480 price target.

    AAPL – Apple estimates increased at UBS. AAPL estimates raised through 2013. iPhone purchase and carrier launch delays ahead of 4S cause shortfall. Maintain $510 price target and Buy rating.

    INTC – PT Lifted from $28 to $30 @ RBC. Outperform

    INTC – PT Lifted from $26 to $28 @ Longbow. Buy

    KO – estimates lowered at Credit Suisse through 2013. Currency changes are cutting into earnings. Outperform rating and $95 price target.

    KO – Coca-Cola numbers lowered at UBS. Shares of KO now seen reaching $73. Estimates also lowered on currency and spending impact. Maintain Buy rating.

  14. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nation's top watchdog for... [#98030]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The nation’s top watchdog for the multi-trillion dollar asset management industry said Wednesday the agency has no plans to consider approving any new Exchange-Traded-Funds seeking to make “significant” use of derivatives until the agency completes a broader review of how derivatives are used by all funds. “Although the [SEC's] staff recognizes the competitive impact of the decision to defer the consideration of exemptive relief, the staff is committed to the commission’s mission to protect investors,” said Eileen Rominger, director of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s division of Investment Management in testimony prepared for a Senate Banking Committee hearing. The division’s staff announced in March 2010 that they will be limiting their approval of new ETFs that make “significant” investments in derivatives, as the agency evaluates the use of derivatives by mutual funds, ETFs and other investment companies. She noted that a certain small group of so-called “inverse, leveraged ETFs” are made up of derivatives and other securities and can have an effect that that can be magnified in volatile markets

  15. Bill, What is your 12-24 month price... [#98031]
    By: c2ski (94 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bill,

    What is your 12-24 month price target?

    • c2ski, Interesting Q because some analysts don't grasp why... [#98045]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      c2ski,

      Interesting Q because some analysts don’t grasp why Intel is doing so well in what is supposedly a slow-growth economy. The reason is probably that their product line is expanding into high growth areas.

      I agree with Value Line that INTC will do $2.40-$2.50 earnings over the next year, and that the PE multiple will likely move from under 10x (which is a ridiculously low figure) to at least 14x on its way to 18-20x.

      So, on this basis I think $33 is a good low end target for 12-24 months. I think we’ll see a high of possibly $40.

      On Oct 3 at the Cara Whistler Conference, I picked INTC for my Growth portfolio selection (Tech sector). The stock is up +18.0% since the Conference. I chose INTC because the company appears to be going into a 3-5 year period of very high growth in revenue, cash flow, earnings, and dividends. The company is cash rich and will probably buy back 4% or more of its stock this year and for the next few years. In a stronger economy, it will also have greater pricing power.

  16. Not only has AAPL failed to meet analyst expectations of... [#98032]
    By: terryC (336 comments) Go to top ↑

    Not only has AAPL failed to meet analyst expectations of revenue and profit for the quarter, they are stating that $4.5B of the $28.3B in revenue came from China.
    The media should be drilling down into this number which represents 16% of total global sales reported. Apple does not have a big presence in computers in China and only recently opened stores to combat the deluge of fully functional iPhone knock-offs that are selling for 1/4 to 1/5 the price of the genuine article. There have also been supply chain issues related to weather and other events in Asia. I believe there is yet another story here about how numbers are pulled out of thin air in China because of the lack of transparency and level of corruption that persists. If the numbers proved to be $2.5B instead of $4.5B what would the market reaction be?

    FD: No position in APPL

  17. INTC - estimates, target raised at Citigroup. Shares of... [#98033]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    INTC – estimates, target raised at Citigroup. Shares of INTC now seen reaching $27.50. Estimates also increased as company is executing well, but market disparity a lingering concern. Buy rating.

    INTC – Intel estimates, target raised at Goldman. Shares of INTC now seen reaching $22*. Estimates also increased, as higher sales is driving margin expansion.

    INTC – Intel estimates, target raised at UBS. Shares of INTC now seen reaching $30. Estimates also increased as solid execution offsets macro weakness. Buy rating.

    JNPR – estimates, target cut at Credit Suisse. Shares of JNPR now seen reaching $25. Estimates also reduced, given the company’s new guidance. Neutral rating.

    JNPR – Juniper Networks estimates lowered at UBS through 2012. Strong 3Q bookings and visibility better into 1Q, but still risk. Maintain $24 price target and Neutral rating.

    ——

    * huh?

  18. http://tinyurl.com/3orcmj4 Also note that AEM's stock is... [#98034]
    By: Spyder (43 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://tinyurl.com/3orcmj4

    Also note that AEM’s stock is down about 15% today due to the closure of the Goldex mine because of water inflow.

  19. Agnico-Eagle is paying CAD 2.80 in cash for GYD.V, why is... [#98035]
    By: schnauser (31 comments) Go to top ↑

    Agnico-Eagle is paying CAD 2.80 in cash for GYD.V, why is GYD.V trading as low as 2.25 today? What am I missing about this situation?

    • Sounds like a cash and share deal to me: From news... [#98049]
      By: lowpickr (153 comments) Go to top ↑

      Sounds like a cash and share deal to me:

      From news release:
      Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (“Agnico-Eagle”) (NYSE:AEM)(TSX:AEM) and Grayd Resource Corporation (“Grayd”) (TSX VENTURE:GYD)(OTCQX:GYDRF) jointly announce that they have entered into an acquisition agreement, pursuant to which Agnico-Eagle has agreed to offer to acquire all of the outstanding common shares of Grayd at $2.80 per share by way of a take-over bid. The transaction is valued at approximately $275 million on a fully-diluted basis.

      From election form:
      The maximum amount of cash available under the Offer is approximately $92 million and the maximum
      number of Agnico-Eagle Shares available for issuance under the Offer is approximately 2.7 million AgnicoEagle
      Shares (based on the number of Shares outstanding on a fully-diluted basis as at September 19, 2011).
      If
      all Shareholders deposited their Shares to the Cash Option or all Shareholders deposited their Shares to the
      Share Option, each Shareholder would be entitled to receive approximately $0.93 in cash and 0.02741 of an
      Agnico-Eagle Share for each Share deposited, subject to adjustment for fractional shares.

      • lowpickr, Good catch, I missed the part about the $92m... [#98052]
        By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

        lowpickr,

        Good catch, I missed the part about the $92m maximum cash component – I guess that better explains the drop in GYD.V shares…

  20. Surely AEM has enough cash and production that the shutdown... [#98036]
    By: schnauser (31 comments) Go to top ↑

    Surely AEM has enough cash and production that the shutdown of one of its 6 producing mines won’t derail the deal?

    • schnauser, Just a thought, but there may be some merger... [#98037]
      By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

      schnauser,

      Just a thought, but there may be some merger arb funds getting blown out by the AEM news. I imagine many of these funds may have purchased GYD.V stock in the mid-$2 range expecting a flawless transaction that would net them about a 10% profit. These funds may have very large positions in GYD.V and thus today’s whiff that there may be something awry on the part of AEM could easily have created a panic. Because the purchase offer gave a choice of cash or cash + shares, it seems unlikely that any of the merger arb funds would have covered the other side with a short of AEM shares.

      It may very well be a solid buying opp in GYD.V shares…..

  21. The "Help I'm getting arrested!" app for your android... [#98038]
    By: Seamus (476 comments) Go to top ↑

    The “Help I’m getting arrested!” app for your android phone.

    http://download.cnet.com/8301-2007_4-20119537-12/h

  22. ... [#98039]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  23. Citigroup will pay USD 285mln to settle SEC charges for... [#98040]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Citigroup will pay USD 285mln to settle SEC charges for misleading investors about selling CDOs related to housing market, according to SEC…

    this is the problem. How much did they make on those CDO’s initially?

    • Should be profits plus the... [#98043]
      By: mfoirishelk (1 comments) Go to top ↑

      Should be profits plus the fine.

    • Hooray, the regulators are on the... [#98046]
      By: pulse (324 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hooray, the regulators are on the job!

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dos1bm_tU_k

      285 million goes back to those mislead investors, right?

    • NYUGrad, Exactly right! This is the equivalent of the... [#98054]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

      NYUGrad,

      Exactly right!

      This is the equivalent of the bandit saying to the cops, “Hey, look over there!” and then heading for the hills.

      That they think we are so stupid as to buy this crap is adding insult to injury.

    • Prove that C will pay 285 million to the SEC or anyone else... [#98059]
      By: bigwad1 (768 comments) Go to top ↑

      Prove that C will pay 285 million to the SEC or anyone else other then a politician!
      All the to-big-to-fail supposedly payed back the 1 trillion in TARP handouts initiated by no other then Hank Paulson to. (remember the sky is falling?)I’ve never seen anything proving that the to-big-to-fail actually did pay back the TARP handouts, other then the shrill news media saying that they payed the money back.
      You are free to believe anything you are feed by the US propaganda machine, and I’m free to believe nothing that I’m feed by the news media anymore. This country is run by greedy lier’s with an agenda to enrich themselves at the expense of the sheeple.
      There’s no proof until the Fed is audited and every penny of the tax payers money is accounted for.

      Enjoyed the youtube video you posted yesterday of the marine up in NY state admonishing the boys in blue. I’m thinking it’s going to be a very long time before our troops come home from Afghanistan. The greedy thieves that run this country don’t need them solders out on the street speaking up about the extreme inequality in the US. It’s going to be hard enough to keep the police forces in this country on the side of the to-big-to-fail. I’m sure that almighty pay check will keep those cops loyal to the elite in command.
      Divide the people!

  24. Profit falls... [#98041]
    By: rlogan1301 (164 comments) Go to top ↑
  25. Got a fill on SVM yesterday at 7.75. Nice move in INTC... [#98042]
    By: leftthread (22 comments) Go to top ↑

    Got a fill on SVM yesterday at 7.75.

    Nice move in INTC since Bill’s recommendation.

  26. on ES contract, 1229, its off to the... [#98044]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    on ES contract, 1229, its off to the races.

  27. it appears OWS has issued an initial... [#98047]
    By: skyler (67 comments) Go to top ↑

    it appears OWS has issued an initial document.

    https://sites.google.com/site/the99percentdeclarat

    thanks for caracommunity.com

  28. I've been looking through StockCharts trying to find an... [#98048]
    By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

    I’ve been looking through StockCharts trying to find an indicator not commingled with price. So many have price embedded that it would tend to “double count” rather than offer confirmations or lack thereof relative the the price. Specifically, I’m trying to come up with an indicator to evaluate a tag of the Bollinger Band becuase from reading Bollinger a tag isn’t in itself a signal of a reversal.

    PPO is the best that I’ve come up with so far and is reflected on the attached chart of SPY attached. Responses welcome!

  29. OSK.TO is halted pending news. Could be interesting... Lots... [#98050]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    OSK.TO is halted pending news. Could be interesting… Lots of chaos in PM mining shares today.

  30. "Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Silver, the best-performing and... [#98051]
    By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

    “Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) — Silver, the best-performing and most-volatile precious metal of the past year, may rebound from a bear market as investors bet on growth in developing nations and an extended European debt crisis.”

    More at:

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-19/silver

  31. ... [#98055]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  32. ... [#98056]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  33. Saekozy: "If there isn't a solution by Sunday, everything... [#98058]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Saekozy: “If there isn’t a solution by Sunday, everything is going to collapse”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis

    • One would wonder what "everything" is. I would wonder if... [#98060]
      By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

      One would wonder what “everything” is. I would wonder if some prices somewhere should be showing an elevated risk level.

    • Oh Dorothy! I hear if we go to the Land of Oz, there is a... [#98062]
      By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

      Oh Dorothy! I hear if we go to the Land of Oz, there is a Wizard who can do wonderful things! Follow, Follow, Follow, Follow, Follow, Follow the ……

      Ever get the feeling that the world is getting played by this EU drama? I wonder if some one is putting a nice “wall of worry’ in place……black swans every where circling….lions and tigers and bears…..

      I wonder what it feels like when a person is 70 years old( more, maybe less) and they willingly participated in a massive manipulation of disinformation most of their professional career? Do you suppose they have an impending sense of judgement deep in their soul covered up and numbed by various deceits and soul preservation tactics? I’m simply bothered by parenting failures. How do these people sleep?

  34. Everything to Monsieur Sarkozy is (in order of... [#98061]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    Everything to Monsieur Sarkozy is (in order of importance):

    1. BNP Paribas
    2. Societe Generale
    3. Credit Agricole

    Amazing how Paulson-like, Sarkozy is sounding. Christine LaGarde will pick her head up and toss out a similar comment next.

    Wie gehts, Frau Merkel?

  35. Email: douglasmacq at gmail.com or douglas at... [#98063]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Email: douglasmacq at gmail.com
    or
    douglas at asantegold.com

    SKYPE: douglas.macquarrie

    Douglas R. MacQuarrie
    President
    Asante Gold Corporation
    Suite 206, 595 Howe Street
    Vancouver, BC, Canada V6C 2T5

    Tel: +1 604 558-1134
    Mobile: +1 604 710-8442
    Toll Free (Canada/USA) 1 877 339-7525
    Fax: +1 604 558-1136

    Web: http://www.asantegold.com

    Ghana:

    5 Roman Road
    Roman Ridge
    Accra, Ghana

    Tel:+233 302 214 032
    Mobile:+233 246 327 934

    • ALOHA!! Thanks for the info Bill. Its worth your time to... [#98066]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      Thanks for the info Bill.

      Its worth your time to review the Oct 2011 PowerPoint presentation at the Asante God website. Gives you more of a geological flavor to the concessions and the region along with standard junior explorer methodology.

      Thanks Doug …

  36. Leveraged EFSF Violates Maastricht Treaty; "Merkozy" Master... [#98064]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    Leveraged EFSF Violates Maastricht Treaty; “Merkozy” Master Plan Comes Unglued

    Steen Jakobsen, chief economist of Saxo Bank in Denmark just pinged Mish with the following email comments: “Leveraged EFSF deemed violation of Maastricht. The Master Plan is coming apart!

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/10

  37. Here's the official press release which provides the... [#98065]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

    Here’s the official press release which provides the details of the decision to close the Goldex mine.

    The aftertax cost is estimated at $170 million or 103,300 oz of gold ($1650 oz)
    That’s about 10% of 2011 production estimates. The company was projecting 1.5m oz production by 2014.

    A lesson for investors that mining is a risky business and and setbacks occur.

    Anyone interested in this stock in the low to mid 40′s? Maybe a stink bid could get filled tomorrow am?

    http://tinyurl.com/3eu5xyq

  38. Under the category of does it really matter at all. I have... [#98068]
    By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑

    Under the category of does it really matter at all.

    I have been doing the best I can to understand the Comex and it’s dealings with silver and gold. As I understand it each contract takes a long and a short position to be vended. The players were at one time able to leverage the bets by controlling more units on credit than they could buy for cash. Then at some point in the game several banks sold the physical metals for cash short positions and the game went on. But now we have three bets on a single quote. 2008 comes along and the banks show their books to get TARP funds and a couple have huge shorts in metals.

    It would seem to me the two who are short are bullying the long. As in any good story the long was way up when the bank started pulling the rug out from the second player the long by telling him no more credit for all of your positions as it don’t look good for the shorts. Rinse and replete several time the last few months.

    Now we hear Congress is placing limits on position sizes of 10%. Does that mean in place of a few bullies their will be the group of 9 each holding 10%? That would spread the wealth and help the banks keep doing what they do best.

    Part of the provisions allow the banks an extra 6 months to unwind their positions. So what I hear is we are in a time of forced selling to get to the limits. Yes I understand the ‘massive’ is off the table from the last drop in price. But, if I were short I would want the prices to come down to me until I finished my task.

    We are now trading in a range equal to the price before it accelerated in October 10. What has changed for silver? China is slowing, the world is out of work, they are shooting each other where we pump our oil. Not much, same old same old.

    So, I ramble my question really is what is the Comex. Is it needed to fix the price of anything. Asia trades each evening for me on the west coast of California. London fixed a price but I thought I followed a link here that said it closed. I know New york fixes each afternoon. Is this like a gold and silver grocery store front where you back the trucks up and load and unload. Where does the Perth Mint get it’s silver, I am guessing under contract with the mines or must they sell to a broker.

    Finally who supplies the data for Kitco to fix a price on silver or gold, is that one of the the function of an exchange.

    Thanks,

    Running a few things through my mind and I can’t get around why we need this in the puzzle anymore.

    http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/silver-price-manip

    Did I mention the European money is in question and gold and silver are dropping like a rock. Hum, I would think you put your extra cash into it not put it on sale unless you were also buying. Would the banks do that?

    • California Kid - You're asking a lot of questions. Start... [#98069]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      California Kid -

      You’re asking a lot of questions. Start with this chart:

      http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/IntradayGCMani

      London fix is alive and well and set twice per day. Gold market runs 24 hours with a NY open smack down as proven by the chart.

      I found Sharlynx Gold to be a great resource for the questions you ask. Free trial on the right plus some free charts.

      http://www.sharelynx.com/index2.php

      Silver is probably a bi-product of gold mines around Perth that supply the mint but only a guess.

      Cheers.

  39. (CH) Shanghai Copper Futures lower by 5.9% vs daily limit... [#98070]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    (CH) Shanghai Copper Futures lower by 5.9% vs daily limit of 7%

  40. ... [#98071]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Spasibo Vadichka, Once our Eurotrash cousins realize that... [#98073]
      By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

      Spasibo Vadichka,

      Once our Eurotrash cousins realize that they can kick the liquidity can with impunity (12 month bond purchases at a fixed rate), their subsuquent QE must and will be infinite times X either through insurance or—and this is their ultimate salvation, a Eurobond! Even the Brits have ordered an unlimited amount of paper and ink to kick start and plaster over ‘A slow pitch.’

      Sorry. I’m tired of the posturing from western politicos who are determined to solve a sovereign debt crisis with more debt. But they will, since they willingly assumed the corporate bank debt write offs of 08/09… What a bunch of silly buricratz who have lost ALL credibility. Now they get to recapitalize those same banks balance sheets with MORE money from reluctent taxpayers who ———–vote!

      I take solice in watching them squirm like slimy worms eating a cadaver that was once Europe. Not that I ever thought highly of Europe!

      • I dunno Ilya, maybe, just maybe this time around they won't... [#98074]
        By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

        I dunno Ilya, maybe, just maybe this time around they won’t be able to prolong this agony anymore… too strong resistance, both vertical (from below, hoi poloi rioting) and horizontal (member states not too keen on sacrificing sovereignty or giving money away). Or am I dreaming?…

        In other developments, I decided from now on I am replacing word “crash” with “rapid negative growth.” They are not the only ones who can learn newspeak. If you can replace “bailout” with “bank recapitalization” with “insurance”…

        • This whole thing becomes less expensive for the taxpayers... [#98075]
          By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

          This whole thing becomes less expensive for the taxpayers if the bondholders recapitalize the banks. But if Ackermann wasn’t happy with the 50% haircut, he’ll REALLY be unhappy when the bank bondholders start taking losses…

  41. This naturopathic doctor tells about being raided by Health... [#98072]
    By: loannetter (1298 comments) Go to top ↑

    This naturopathic doctor tells about being raided by Health Canada for his supplements, and financially ruined. The flu (marketing) season is upon us so expect more natural health practitioners to be threatened.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNYalYTwm9A&feature…!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0Qc_njYdjE&feature

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=i75LovKvKVk

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THt0ClMp7FQ&feature

  42. Does anyone have a view on... [#98076]
    By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

    Does anyone have a view on this?

    http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_c

    I just saw this in the paper yesterday and seems like an interesting concept.

  43. Put up or shut up is what Geoff said of the bulls this... [#98077]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    Put up or shut up is what Geoff said of the bulls this morning and looking at least at the gold miners (GDX -6%) the bulls chose the latter.

    All the metals have clearly rolled over and copper is doing its best imitation of a waterfall. Given the situation that is rapidly unraveling in Europe, one must be prepared for lower lows.

    It was also Geoff who suggested that earnings must be stellar in order to overcome bearish sentiments at this point and frankly, investor behaviour in the market leaders ain’t looking great. HAL, LULU, AMZN, CMG – all being sold off on the day. The market leaders are the one to watch.

    GMCR an eye watering -15% as David Einhorn’s negative call has the effect of pushing the herd through a small exit all at the same time – price/volume action speaks loudly. AAPL (-5.59%) misses street estimates and gaps lower. The daily chart looks like a double top to me with bearish divergences in CCI.

    The market isn’t ‘game over’ at this point. Bill’s cross of death (the 8MA) is being tested by the indexes in the daily time frame. Support for Uncle Buck held at 77.00, but how much investors want to hold Greenbacks is not yet clear. I suspect events in Europe will determine the dollar’s popularity.

    TLT continues to hold support at 115 but we’re not seeing the panic driven return to bonds that defined the August lift off.

    All in all I’d be more cautious now that I see the metals determined to at least test support – especially Dr. Copper which appears to be seeking a retest of 3.00. Where copper goes, so goes the market. If I had skin in this game, I’d be hedging here.

    http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-o

    I went back to look at where I felt this market was hanging in the balance of rolling over or breaking out higher. It was 5 sessions ago, when WHR broke out of its consolidation for a brief spike that turned out to be a head fake.

    This is illustrative of the capacity for charts to supply if-then scenarios that can be traded accordingly. Of course TA is not trading and my admiration is profound for Geoff, Bill and others who can sit there and trade profitably the cards this market deals hour after hour – especially in this volatility.

    At this point in time I’m happy to accumulate a pile of metal and let these fools fall on their swords of hubris, enjoying a reading recommended by Jesse’s:

    http://www.amazon.com/ECONned-Unenlightened-Underm

    • I like your summary Les. Here are some thoughts of my... [#98080]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      I like your summary Les. Here are some thoughts of my own.

      Gold may have found support at 1607 today, possibly Silver at 30.50 as well. Saw a big volume spike on gold as it touched 1607. It failed to rise above 1690, so it makes some sense that it went back to retest its 1600 support level. Now the buck is weakening a bit. Copper is definitely heading down, but SPX is not following. If anything, it seems to be more or less ignoring copper’s moves. Look at SPX:COPPER to see what I mean.

      Perhaps copper was simply overbought by people in China stockpiling it in warehouses using borrowed money, and so its giving us a false signal now?

      I do think 1225 resistance for SPX is pretty strong. And your points about the leaders getting badly hurt is also important too. Miners absolutely died yesterday with just a mild move in the metal. I’m really not sure what that means either. For me, the indicators point in both directions.

      • actually Dave while doing my daily walk I was struck by the... [#98081]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        actually Dave while doing my daily walk I was struck by the notion mentioned here and at Jesse’s that the metals may simply be a result of market players repositioning before the CFTC limit rule comes into effect. It may not be so bearish as it looks, but that’s something that’ll need watching. That would fit with the indexes ignoring the metals as you remarked on.

  44. http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/10/s... The... [#98078]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/10/s

    The divergence of views in Washington and the OWS are absolutely astounding. Out of touch? More like on another planet.

    • To me its not a divergence of viewpoints, it is simply an... [#98079]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      To me its not a divergence of viewpoints, it is simply an astounding level of intellectual dishonesty.

      One thing Jon Stewart excels at is pointing out such cognitive dissonance using his 7-minute video “horse’s mouth” montage format.

      “OUR protesters are Freedom Fighters who Love America, while YOURS are Anti American scumbags that hate Freedom and Capitalism and our Way of Life and need to be suppressed for the Good of Democracy.”

      Bunch of weasels.

    • ... [#98087]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  45. http://on.ft.com/pQ4OlV Nice wrap-up, Les. Here's another... [#98082]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://on.ft.com/pQ4OlV

    Nice wrap-up, Les. Here’s another reason why the metals are being sold, although it is only the small and medium-sized trading houses who are likely to be affected.

    Market talk of steelmakers in China shutting down for “maintenance”, code word for closures to reduce steel output – negative for iron ore