Bill Cara’s Blog for Nov 30, 2011

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

The sun, the moon, the planets, the stars, the equities, the commodities, gold and silver all rose in the east this morning — at exactly 6am ET thanks to the People’s Bank of China. The reserve ratio required of the lending banks was lowered, instantly making more capital available to those individuals and companies interested in taking on more debt, all in the hope they would invest it in the economy.

China, it seems, is the economic engine of the world, and the power that lifts markets.


Good morning, Geoff here.

S&P futures were down last night, only to turn around this morning after China cut its reserve ratio. In other words, banks can loan out more capital which will help the Chinese economy from slowing further. This news is putting a bid under the market and especially Cara 100 stocks like; BHP, FCX, POT, BIDU, TCK, GGB, etc. This will continue squeezing the shorts out of their positions today and rally the market further to our benefit.

If the rally continues into the open, it looks like the S&P 500 may hit my first target of 1230ish which I calculated simply because of all of the trading activity at that level over the past few months. So, the question is; where do we go from there?

The big question is the EU. As you have read here and in Bill’s Week in Review, we believe that the monetary authorities will find a solution to avoid another situation like we had in 2008 and China’s actions today add foundation to that view. However, I can’t get the vision out of my head of the leaders in the EU bickering among themselves for their own short term gain, failing to find a real solution until the markets force them to do so.

So, where does that leave us?

For portfolio management purposes – we anticipated and have benefited from the short squeeze. Short squeezes will rally the market in violent fashion and sometimes that is all the rally is about and it will fail when the shorts are out of their positions. But, sometimes other factors kick in and the rally continues to new highs. Today, those other factors would be a solution to the EU sovereign debt issue that traders view as positive enough to pull stocks higher. Since we don’t know what the end result will be, we can use the rally to purchase puts that have dropped dramatically in price from just a few short days ago. This will allow us to keep our positions, yet have a safety net underneath us should everything fall apart due to political infighting in both Europe and the United States. We shall see how the market reacts after the open, but let’s hope that it will allow us to buy insurance cheap this morning and over the next few days.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 1,763.30 6:32AM EST Down 4.70 (0.27%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,013.95 6:58AM EST Up 6.72 (0.33%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,054.98 6:58AM EST Up 28.22 (0.93%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 5,904.26 6:43AM EST Up 104.35 (1.80%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 274.37 Nov 25 Up 2.76 (1.02%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 422.34 6:43AM EST Up 2.13 (0.51%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 293.26 6:59AM EST Up 2.89 (1.00%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 5,554.04 6:43AM EST Up 22.80 (0.41%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,398.87 6:43AM EST Up 61.87 (1.16%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 850.40 6:58AM EST Up 7.00 (0.83%) Chart, More
ESI500000000.MA IGBM 821.37 6:40AM EST Up 5.49 (0.67%) Components, Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,477.85 7:58AM EST Up 23.18 (1.59%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 663.23 6:43AM EST Up 1.71 (0.26%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth

Lather, Rinse, Repeat: The Myth of the 2 Party System in America

A fantastic piece in Origins Magazine summarizes quite nicely why there is no fundamental difference between democrats and republicans. Especially in areas of welfare and government mandated benefits to the people that are often called “support” by the party in power and “socialism” by the opposition:

Every Republican President to serve since World War II presided over an extension of federal unemployment benefits, belying the notion that offering government aid to the unemployed is a step on the road to socialism.

The second President Bush extended general unemployment benefits four times during his years in office. When the economy sagged after the September 11 attacks, Bush II signed a bill that temporarily increased the number of weeks that the unemployed could receive benefits from thirteen to thirty-nine. Every single Republican in the House of Representatives voted for the measure.

Opponents of the Obama administration have taken to calling his response to the current economic crisis “radical.” At least in the case of stimulus spending and especially providing aid to the unemployed, they are wrong. Instead, the Obama administration has merely extended the nation’s remarkably long history of government-sponsored unemployment relief as well as its well-established albeit shorter history of using government spending to resurrect the economy.

Real radicalism would be to abandon these traditions and instead leave ailing private markets to nurse themselves back to health while jobless Americans needlessly suffer without government aid.

Whatever one’s views on the morality of government aid, it’s always entertaining for one party to accuse the other of leading the nation down a particular path to hell for doing exactly what they would while in power.

I was unaware Bush extended unemployment benefits so often and for so long. Little is said of this fact and I suspect few know of it simply because it fails to fit in with the narrative of a warmongering president. This is the ultimate irony: The man who sent thousands to their deaths in an ill-conceived war and was the architect of an increasingly hostile police state also oversaw some of the biggest increases in unemployment benefits since WW2.

I tend to steer clear of sweeping generalizations about “democrats”, “republicans” and the broad actions of the America Presidency in general. The media is saturated with baseless conjecture about things they have no tangible evidence for. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Interesting times.

Jeff Borsato
jeffborsato@caratrading.com


  1. 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications 7:30 AM ET... [#101043]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications
    • 7:30 AM ET Challenger Job-Cut Report
    • 8:15 AM ET ADP Employment Report
    • 8:30 AM ET Productivity and Costs
    • 9:45 AM ET Chicago PMI
    • 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales Index
    • 10:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report
    • 2:00 PM ET Beige Book
    • 3:00 PM ET Farm Prices
  2. 1 in Accumulation Zone 13 in Buy alert Accumulation... [#101044]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 1 in Accumulation Zone
    • 13 in Buy alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 12, Weekly 7, Daily 4
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 5, Weekly 0, Daily 1

  3. ... [#101047]
    By: c2ski (94 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/30/us-china

    and

    Fed, ECB, Central Banks of Canada, England, Japan, and Switzerland Announce Joint Action to Boost Liquidity, Addressing Pressures in Global Money Markets

  4. Good morning. 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (-11.7%) 07:30... [#101048]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (-11.7%)
    07:30 Challenger Job Cuts (-12.8%)
    08:15 ADP Employment Change
    08:30 Productivity-Rev.
    08:30 Unit Labor Costs
    09:45 Chicago PMI
    10:00 Pending Home Sales
    10:30 Crude Inventories
    14:00 Fed’s Beige Book

    ——

    There are NO Cara 100 Changes to report at this time.

    ——

    “If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?”
    - Will Rogers

  5. WOW... go big or go home! Bill says it all the time.. "the... [#101049]
    By: wxman1229 (45 comments) Go to top ↑

    WOW… go big or go home!
    Bill says it all the time.. “the central bankers can print… the central bankers have the power… central bankers this… central bankers that”….
    Bill dude… you were never more right… glad i pay attention to you

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-banks-act-

  6. Market showing all the signs of being a crack addict. Are... [#101050]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    Market showing all the signs of being a crack addict. Are swap lines the printing of money? Why is it pumping the ozzie dollar? 3 cent gain in minutes is pretty impressive. nuts might be the right word.

    • Congratulations to Divyan Shah (a strategist at Thomson... [#101052]
      By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

      Congratulations to Divyan Shah (a strategist at Thomson Reuters) for predicting this two weeks ago.

      We continue to believe that the environment is once again rife for another boost to the liquidity wheels to help grease the money market wheels. Unlike 2008 we already have swap lines in place and precautionary liquidity from central banks. However, the problem is the cost of the liquidity is too high and thus there is a high chance that the fees being charged for dollar swap lines will be lowered from 100bps over OIS to around 50bps over OIS. The rewidening of the 3mth EUR currency basis swap back to the highs of this year suggesting that such an action from the Fed cannot be ruled out.

      • ... [#101053]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2008/09/thu

        looking up to understand what a swap line is I note a similar central bank effort recorded in a blog dated September 2008. I note that this swap occurred only 2 weeks before the big crash of October 2008.

        I wonder if stress levels are reaching a similar climax that led to the equity crash shortly after?

        I note that Peter Brandt was salivating over the long term Eurodollar chart, which would be game over with a loss of support of 99.

        http://peterlbrandt.com/eurdollars-a-once-every-fo

        If Eurodollars are an interest rate call, not a currency play, do I understand correctly that the cost of borrowing non US deposited dollars is starting to impact upon their normal circulation? i.e., dollars are getting expensive to borrow? I’m assuming something along these lines.

        The following chart on Eurodollar COT positions suggested a bottoming in October, which played out to a T.

        http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly

        Yet I still see the Eurodollar chart selling off, getting closer to 99 support. I’m assuming that this swap line is there to help prevent this loss of support. The following chart certainly shows this effort to support Eurodollars this morning.

        http://www.forexpros.com/rates-bonds/eurodollar-ad

        If anyone can help me to understand the importance of the Eurodollar better, I’d be much obliged.

  7. Sol Kerzner is transferring ownership of his Paradise... [#101051]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Sol Kerzner is transferring ownership of his Paradise Island properties to Toronto’s Brookfield Asset Management while retaining the management contract.

    http://www.tribune242.com/11302011_KERZNER_news

    http://www.hotelnewsresource.com/article59728.html

    Now, for certain, I’ll never go!

    • Bill, it's an impressive aggregation of assets these men... [#101055]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill, it’s an impressive aggregation of assets these men have pulled together over the generations. Too bad they had to trample on so many people over the years to build it. I’m sure they make good use of tax havens like this, so keeping the resort going is in their interests, even if they operate it at a loss. I sympathize with your sentiments.

    • This consortium is infested. Birch Mountain shareholders... [#101069]
      By: Jimymac (40 comments) Go to top ↑

      This consortium is infested. Birch Mountain shareholders have lettered their representatives to question the registration approval at the SEC, at a time when there is an ongoing investigations.

      A consortium made up of investment bank Goldman Sachs and Brookfield Asset Management has won the bid to buy a billion-dollar New Zealand loan portfolio from Bank of Scotland International.
      http://www.skynews.com.au/finance/article.aspx?id=

      Brookfield Investment Management Announces U.S. Mutual Funds Platform
      http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brookfield-invest

      • BAM and GS make quite a duo. Talk about your "Axis of... [#101109]
        By: terryC (336 comments) Go to top ↑

        BAM and GS make quite a duo. Talk about your “Axis of evil”! Sounds like a new Mafia family in the making.

  8. ... [#101056]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/mon

    First impressions may be oversimplified; time will show what really transpires.

    First impression is, playing for time. Liquidity is fine but major underlying problem is not a lack of liquidity; it’s indebtedness and possible insolvency. Lack of liquidity comes as a consequence when lenders start doubting the borrower’s ability to pay back. So this move simply replaces “natural” lender with artificial one. This lets the former out and transfers risk to the latter. Whether the time they just bought is enough to resolve real problem, may take many months to see.

    Meanwhile, market sighs with relief (no immediate collapse, let’s squeeze shorts) and postpones its worries till the time when situation becomes more clear. Remember the definition of the genuine news? That’s what we see in action today.

    • My first impression is that they have played to obtain... [#101058]
      By: lessmore (322 comments) Go to top ↑

      My first impression is that they have played to obtain maximum advantage in squeezing the shorts. They waited for many players to position themselves short because 1202-1205 was supposed to be formidable perhaps even impenetrable resistance. Then they lobbed grenades and breached the resistance.

      They have no solution. They are not just playing for time. They are playing for increased insider profits. Their primary concern is self enrichment. After reading the newly disclosed information on the Paulson and Bernanke dealings in the last crisis I can’t believe they are genuinely concerned about anything but their own personal enrichment at the expense of everyone else.

  9. With everything else happening this morning . . . Remember... [#101057]
    By: Seamus (476 comments) Go to top ↑

    With everything else happening this morning . . .

    Remember the rules proposed by the SEC on Naked Access? Implementation was delayed last summer as HB&B and others bitterly complained.

    Well, those partial rules banning “naked access” where electronic traders bypass brokerage firms takes effect today.

    Interestingly, I recently received a letter from the broker offering 6% interest if my wife would loan shares of a stock in her IRA.

  10. ... [#101059]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Same article as last year but read: "gold mining stocks... [#101063]
      By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

      Same article as last year but read:

      “gold mining stocks are trading at their cheapest level in at least 8 years”

      and in 2007 it read:

      “gold mining stocks are trading at their cheapest level in at least 7 years”

      and in 2006 it read:

      “gold mining stocks are trading at their cheapest level in at least 6 years”

      and in 2005 it read:

      “gold mining stocks are trading at their cheapest level in at least 5 years”

      each new year brought fresh excitement that gold stocks would finally rebound off of higher gold prices and new metrics that magically would change course. Instead you see gold stocks rise on a relative basis to gold only when the broad market can rise. With the TSX at about the same place it was 6 years ago, gold stocks are up about %30 or so vs. a tripling of gold.

      I see nothing new in gold stocks as a sector, only good stocks that will rise above the rest. Selection is the key, not broad-based assumptions about a sector moving higher off the back of gold that only fails to materialize year after year.

    • The Gold Producers still haven't begun to pay the... [#101103]
      By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

      The Gold Producers still haven’t begun to pay the shareholders with increased dividends. A strong dividend in these time will add greatly to the share price.
      For instance ABX at 1.2%, NEM at 2.15%, EGO at 1.2% and SLW at 1.15%.

      When Silver Wheaton announced not so great earnings earlier this month they did triple the dividend. It at least began to address the issue. Here is the policy statement:

      Silver Wheaton announced that it has adopted a new dividend policy that links quarterly dividend payments to operating cash flows in the prior quarter.

      Commencing immediately, the quarterly dividend per common share will be equal to 20% of the cash generated by operating activities in the previous quarter divided by the Company’s outstanding common shares at the time the dividend is approved, all rounded to the nearest cent.

  11. swaps, anyone have ideas how they will effect the Euro or... [#101060]
    By: barry (250 comments) Go to top ↑

    swaps, anyone have ideas how they will effect the Euro or TLT?

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_s

  12. ERTS - was upgraded at Citigroup from Neutral to Buy. $26... [#101061]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    ERTS – was upgraded at Citigroup from Neutral to Buy. $26 price target.

    FCX – Macquarie Initiates with an Outperform.

    GSK – Citi Initiates with a Buy.

    SNDK – named Long Research Tactical Idea @ Morgan Stanley.

  13. If the gas gauge points to empty, breaking the glass and... [#101062]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    If the gas gauge points to empty, breaking the glass and turning the needle to full doesn’t make it so.

    The system is so broken now.

  14. ANR, sold out on short cover rip at... [#101064]
    By: Telestar3d (636 comments) Go to top ↑

    ANR, sold out on short cover rip at 23.30.

  15. ... [#101065]
    By: JimG (299 comments) Go to top ↑
    • OK... I've read the cited link... [#101067]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      OK… I’ve read the cited link, http://www.ice.gov/news/releases/1111/111128washin…. I fail to see how it is a bad thing… They sell counterfeit goods, they are being taken off the market and given opportunity to argue their case in case there is mistake. I’d rather protest government inaction in this clear-cut case of illegal activity costing US jobs than complaining about it taking action… What do I miss here?

      • ... [#101091]
        By: JimG (299 comments) Go to top ↑
        • JimG is right. It's that little known phrase identifying a... [#101092]
          By: Craig (2014 comments) Go to top ↑

          JimG is right. It’s that little known phrase identifying a little something called “Due Process of LAW”.

          IOW, a blanket ruling and enforcement solely on the word of one party infringes on the rights of various entities without individual due process.

          I know it might be a lot of individual cases, but tough luck. You can’t have a single company running all over the place just pointing and shutting down.
          You have to take them to court individually and provide your evidence.

          “Innocent until proven guilty” is supposed to mean something in the United States of America.
          Besides, if I want a fake bag, watch, movie, software or whatever, I can fly to Asia and get all I want.

          • We will have to agree to disagree on this. To me it's just... [#101094]
            By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

            We will have to agree to disagree on this. To me it’s just another case of caring about rights of perpetrator more than victim’s. Victim in this case btw is not just that darn corporation – it’s all of us, in more ways than one. From the text of original document I see the due process in place. Having counterfeit goods on one’s website or shelf makes one guilty, no? How is he innocent of this? And it’s not like he is sent to jail with no trial – it’s merely the process of selling fake crap that is being shut down. I still fail to see what’s wrong with this.

            Ability to buy fake crap elsewhere has nothing to do with this. We are talking about US actions within US jurisdiction. One can go to many countries and buy a fake movie or stolen software for $1 a disk – doesn’t mean we should allow them sold here, does it?

          • I think we are misunderstanding one another. I don't mean... [#101097]
            By: Craig (2014 comments) Go to top ↑

            I think we are misunderstanding one another.
            I don’t mean to confuse the issue with availability anywhere else.

            My point is about proving the goods are counterfeit using due process.
            Guilt is not determined by a company or corporation, it is proven in a court of law. This way everyone’s rights, the company, the seller and the buyer’s rights are equally respected.
            The problem will occur when a lawful seller who is not selling counterfeit goods is shut down and then damages occur to him and those he sells to.

            An example, aside from a bag or purse, is shampoos. You have some brands that say you can only buy them in a salon. However, these shampoos companies also sell to distributors who are NOT bound to only sell to salons and they sell to grocery stores who then sell those products. So what happens if the shampoo companies can SAY those products are counterfeit ( and they have) when in FACT they are not?

            The thing about case law is it sets precedent. We have due process for a good reason. There should be a law enforcement agency (FBI in this case) making counterfeit buys and identifying counterfeit sites, then arrests and court and then sites shut down. The word of the product company, other than through court testimony, shouldn’t be part of the process. They do not and should not enforce law. That is why we have law enforcement agencies.

          • "I think we are misunderstanding one another." I think we... [#101100]
            By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

            “I think we are misunderstanding one another.”

            I think we do. Company produces and sells product A. It sees a website offering product A at 1/10 the price. It knows it never sold it to whoever runs that website, let alone at such price. It knows it’s a counterfeit. Have you been in place of this company? I have – with no means of recourse, watching thieves profiting from theft and undermining my sales – and powerless to do anything about that. Sorry, no sympathy from me. I suspect you’d change your point of view 180 degrees should you find yourself in this situation.

            There is a lot to say about the rest of the post but I think I’ll bow out. As I said, it’s fine to agree to disagree. I wish you never find yourself being robbed like this.

          • " Company produces and sells product A. It sees a website... [#101110]
            By: Craig (2014 comments) Go to top ↑

            ” Company produces and sells product A. It sees a website offering product A at 1/10 the price. It knows it never sold it to whoever runs that website, let alone at such price. It knows it’s a counterfeit. Have you been in place of this company?”

            I think everyone has been ripped off, robbed or stolen from in their lifetimes.
            The question is, do we encourage vigilantes or do we copyright/patent/contract and call the cops or hire a lawyer?
            If everyone adopts the vigilante idea then we will have lost ALL lawfulness and we will degenerate into the wild west. Our system of laws will be lost, out Constitution and Bill or Rights will be gone and everyone will be packing heat and settling their own affairs with violence or threat of violence.

            Given the choice, even though I’ve been PISSING MAD MYSELF, I still choose LAW AND ORDER. THAT is what separates this country and Canada (or is supposed to) from the much of the rest of the world. Violation of that key concept is what makes nearly 100% of the people on this blog absolutely NUTS. As Luggie wrote, “what we need is for the current laws to be enforced”. Let me take this opportunity to completely agree with him.

          • OK... I know I said I'll bow out of this but: you are... [#101112]
            By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

            OK… I know I said I’ll bow out of this but: you are making it sound as if I am against law and order. Again – I read the original document, and I see due process. No vigilantes. Nowhere did I advocate wild west approach. Don’t misrepresent what I say please.

            I don’t think this example of government overreach is a good one. I don’t think the perpetrators in this particular case are being abused and should be defended.

            On a side note.. can we do without capital letters? When I see these PISSING MAD and NUTS, I feel this turns into shouting match.

            PS. By the way, good luck with hiring a lawyer when a server is located on a third world country territory.

          • Sorry Vad, I use caps at times to emphasize, I'm not... [#101117]
            By: Craig (2014 comments) Go to top ↑

            Sorry Vad, I use caps at times to emphasize, I’m not yelling.

            This is directly from the article in question: “When Chanel finds more names, it simply uses the same case and files new requests for more seizures. (A recent November 14 order went after an additional 228 sites; none had a chance to contest the request until after it was approved and the names had been seized.)

            How were the sites investigated? For the most recent batch of names, Chanel hired a Nevada investigator to order from three of the 228 sites in question. When the orders arrived, they were reviewed by a Chanel official and declared counterfeit. The other 225 sites were seized based on a Chanel anti-counterfeiting specialist browsing the Web.”

            This is vigilante justice. There is no law enforcement agency involved.
            Chanel simply says it’s so and files new (unproven) requests for more seizures. As the article points out, 228 sites were seized without so much as a hearing. That is not due process. It *is* vigilante justice without a chance to have a hearing, hire a defense, face your accusers, testify or present your case, etc. The antithesis of due process. Clearly there is no due process if only three sites are actually investigated (not by law enforcement but by a hired private investigator) and the other 225 were seized without hearings or the opportunity to mount a legal defense.
            This is not to mention that some of those involve international law and jurisdictions outside of the judge or court’s authority.
            I’m sorry, I know you have personal feelings about this, but it isn’t lawful, it isn’t due process, and it infringes on the rights of people that don’t even live in the United States.
            I wonder, what if you were legally operating your trading service (which you clearly are) and your web site (in Canada) was seized based solely on the word of a hired private investigator who investigated only three trading web sites of 228 of which you were one not investigated? Then using no specific investigation of you or your site a blanket American court order was issued to seize your property. Would you have the same view? Wouldn’t you want the court to follow the law and for you to have the right to defend yourself in court and prove your web site and software were of your own invention? If your web site and trading service was your own wouldn’t you want to clear your name in court and face your accusers? Wouldn’t you want to be investigated honestly by a neutral law enforcement agency? This ruling and it’s reach is potentially far more damaging and reaching than you think.
            Anyone could make the above claim against you and once this type of precedent stands then it is a very real possibility.

          • Here is the official article I refer... [#101118]
            By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

            Here is the official article I refer to:

            http://www.ice.gov/news/releases/1111/111128washin

            In everything I wrote I referred to it. Nothing in this one says vigilantes or wild west. The other article has too strong and obvious taste of pre-canned agenda. I don’t know what in it is credible and what is spin.

          • ... [#101129]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  16. Just curious. Is today a good day to go back to cash and... [#101066]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    Just curious. Is today a good day to go back to cash and take the gains you have?

    The consensus seems to be that this is continued can kicking without a real solution from the politicians on the major structural failures that are occurring in the debt-financed world of western civilization.

    If had to have placed a bet on the big shoe to drop prior to today, it would’ve been to say that the Chinese buy up a ton of Italian & Spanish debt. This is what they do with the US. Europe is their biggest export market and they need to sustain their junkies. The fact that this coordinated effort only tangentially involved China, is a tell.

    I’m thinking about selling some of my S&P Index fund today and putting it back to cash (maybe as much as 10%). I still wouldn’t touch any bonds/fixed income here. I agree with Jim Rogers on gold…I think its going to be a painfully slow grind higher, but nothing to get too excited about.

  17. For the last hour a number of stocks I monitor on the TSX:... [#101068]
    By: squish (15 comments) Go to top ↑

    For the last hour a number of stocks I monitor on the TSX: SVM, UXG, PVG,
    RMX, SLW have not traded. Not sure what to make of this, some usually have way more volume. Bid/Ask does not change. Anyone else notice this?
    Cheers.

    • Squish, the TSE is having problems processing orders for... [#101070]
      By: RH (44 comments) Go to top ↑

      Squish, the TSE is having problems processing orders for any symbols beginning M through Z- this I found out from Qtrade about 45 minutes ago.

      Good luck

      • Thanks, I just saw that. Logged on again and received a... [#101071]
        By: squish (15 comments) Go to top ↑

        Thanks, I just saw that. Logged on again and received a notice…There it goes, at least some bids have changed. Cheers!

    • I have been watching this as well. If you look at the... [#101072]
      By: Spyder (43 comments) Go to top ↑

      I have been watching this as well. If you look at the volume of the interlisted stocks today there is generally a huge difference between the US listed volume(+) and the Canadian listed volume(-)for each stock. I think that it has to do with the big jump in the exchange rate of the Canadian$ vs the US$ today. It is educational to go back a few days and look at the volumes on the Canadian Exchanges during the US Thanksgiving Holidays. It is surprising how much the Canadian volume dries up during those days as this serves as a testament to the force of the US traders on the Canadian stock exchanges.

  18. Just noticed index is down 3%. Why wouldn't they join the... [#101073]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Just noticed index is down 3%. Why wouldn’t they join the party? And what a party it is…covering for a few sins of the past.

    • 'cause the market closed almost half day ago before any of... [#101083]
      By: Dave M (437 comments) Go to top ↑

      ’cause the market closed almost half day ago before any of these announcements were made. Sure they will join the party tonight.

  19. will not have staying power. good luck... [#101074]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    will not have staying power. good luck everyone.

  20. David Rosenberg was live on BNN TV at 12:30PM stating that... [#101077]
    By: fireworks (256 comments) Go to top ↑

    David Rosenberg was live on BNN TV at 12:30PM stating that a major French bank was about to fail today, hence the major CB intervention today, including China’s. He would not name the bank but said it was one of the big three.

  21. Anyone get the S shocked out of themselves on that 0.0836... [#101078]
    By: Craig (2014 comments) Go to top ↑

    Anyone get the S shocked out of themselves on that 0.0836 tick on Pinetree?
    My screen showed me down 94%!!!

    Ah, but all is well now. Amazing. That makes the flash crash look like child’s play. I wish I had a stink bid in for a gazillion shares at .085 or so…..

    • I have a GTC bid for 3k limit 1.43 AON for PNPFF that... [#101088]
      By: ChrisM (279 comments) Go to top ↑

      I have a GTC bid for 3k limit 1.43 AON for PNPFF that wasn’t filled. Anyone know how that can happen?

  22. From Charles Hugh Smith:... [#101079]
    By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑

    From Charles Hugh Smith: http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

    “As I write, ‘risk trade’ assets are skyrocketing around the globe as central banks unleash a tsunami of liquidity. Giving bankrupt entities the ability to borrow more money does not make them solvent, and so if we look past the manic rally in speculative assets, we see that debt will still have to be renunciated, written down, forgiven, wiped off the books–whatever terminology you prefer.”

  23. Maybe a good reason to keep an eye on CSCO and... [#101082]
    By: Craig (2014 comments) Go to top ↑

    Maybe a good reason to keep an eye on CSCO and JNPR.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/obama-inv

  24. ... [#101084]
    By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑
  25. ... [#101085]
    By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑
  26. Guaranteed it was them. Same old story...leverage ratios... [#101086]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    Guaranteed it was them. Same old story…leverage ratios and counterparty risk. The banksters have learned absolutely nothing since Lehman. Rosy is great. My ears perk up anytime he speaks.

    The European socialist way of life is simply unsustainable. The Eurozone, outside of Germany, simply doesn’t produce enough goods and services to sustain the social welfare system for an aging population with low growth. Their tax systems are oppressive and squelch entrepeneurism. As soon as anyone with a bright idea can, they go to the US…but soon they may go to Canada, Australia, Brazil or Israel instead.

    I still believe that the major US Banks have been unfairly destroyed in the recent Euro-carnage. Facebook is going to IPO with a $100B market cap, but BAC sits today with a market cap of about half that. US Big financials are cheap for the brave.

    • The insane leverage ratios are entirely due to the fact... [#101089]
      By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑

      The insane leverage ratios are entirely due to the fact that the Euro banks (and their regulators) did not consider sovereign debt as in any sense risky– and hence could be leveraged without limit!!!

      U.S. banks have no one but themselves to blame. They packaged those sub-primes– and then began to believe their own hype about how “trustworthy” those mortgages were. After all, “we had never had a coordinated drop in the housing market”– at least since the last Great Depression!!!

    • Nebish You said: The European socialist way of life is... [#101096]
      By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

      Nebish

      You said: The European socialist way of life is simply unsustainable. The Eurozone, outside of Germany, simply doesn’t produce enough goods and services to sustain the social welfare system for an aging population with low growth.

      I’d reply…

      The American way of life is unsustainable. The United States simply doesn’t produce enough goods and services to sustain the social welfare system for an aging population with low growth.

      Looks like life is about to change for the worse for many across the globe. After the last 140 years of blinding growth and invention, and dramatic increases in standards of living, the money has ended up in the hands of a few…. human nature I guess. This group has borrowed, spent or leveraged money they did not have or could pay back if bets went sour. Now they are in trouble. Large declines in livings standards will appear in the western economies for a significant numbers of citizens.

      With wealth in the hands of a few, can global resources and labor produce enough wealth to support $7Billion people? Global corporations have attacked labor through technological implementation and global wage arbitrage.
      Can productivity grow to such a level to support the legions no longer needed to perform average labor?

      We’ll see.

      • I see talk of big cuts to living standards here and I'm... [#101123]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        I see talk of big cuts to living standards here and I’m inclined to agree but what would a biblical debt jubilee do for the global economy?

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_(Biblical)

        Steve Keen is flavour of the month and I note him in a couple of recent vids with Russian Television and BBC Hard Talk:

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fs_clUxtfa4

        http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/hardtalk/964

        Seems Amrbrose Evans Pritchard has also addressed this issue once too.

        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose

        He wrote that back in 2009 and well, things are certainly not getting better.

        If I understand Keen correctly, to correct the debt/money creation by banks, the governments issue a corresponding amount that is distributed evenly per capita. Those that have kept their debt in order keep the cash, can save/spend/invest accordingly to offset the inflation that no doubt accompanies such a move. Those that mired themselves in debt, have to pay the debt and nothing else with the cash. They start with a clean, or near clean slate again.

        Then hopefully banks are brought under control and not permitted to repeat the lending habits of the last 30 years. I can understand that creditors wouldn’t be happy as they’re being paid back in inflated currency and are unable to seize the assets tied to the debts – screw them.

        On a side note, having watched a couple of a Hard Talk shows now I must admit to being irritated by the presenters manner of dishing out the questions. Keen noted something similar and remarked how he felt like being part of a Monty Python skit, one I’d never seen before. For those who appreciate the old Pommy humour, this one is pretty good:

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdoGVgj1MtY

  27. "Coordinated rate cut? Don't u think that's some info I'd... [#101087]
    By: Kyle (129 comments) Go to top ↑

    “Coordinated rate cut? Don’t u think that’s some info I’d like to know? I like rate cuts? U invited china? I thought china gave u the creeps”

    http://twitter.com/#!/jiuorio

    You just can’t make this trading environment up…

  28. ... [#101093]
    By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑
  29. Looks like easy access to gold, re-refining... [#101095]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Looks like easy access to gold, re-refining tailings.

    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/article

  30. Boeing and its machinist union have reached preliminary... [#101098]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

    Boeing and its machinist union have reached preliminary agreement to produce the updated 737 in Washington state instead of moving it to the non-unionized state of South Carolina. Boeing mentioned supply chain and parts production issues as a reason to stay. It may also get the NLRB off their back.

    AMR also filed for bankruptcy this week. What will happen to all those high paying pilot pensions? Will the PBGC end up the bag holder for the AMR pension obligations? We had a friend who had a United Air pension over $110,000. He ended up with about $40,000 instead. Here’s another hit to thousands of living standards.

  31. How much of each? Where is... [#101099]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    How much of each? Where is resistance?

  32. ... [#101101]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

    Intervention or not, the TED-spread keeps on rising. Either a big nasty surprise is out there waiting to hit in the near future, or the one indicator which has forecasted each crisis for the last few decades is outdated and can not be taken seriously anymore. I know of no other indicator with such a good track record.

    On a day like today it jumps 5%. I am worried. Am I too cautious?

    The TED-spread is usually seen as the global finance thermometer (50 level=fever)

    • ballena, I am with you on this. Nothing got fixed today... [#101104]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      ballena,

      I am with you on this. Nothing got fixed today. Market got injection of fresh money and went up – what else is new. We’ve been there.

      http://goo.gl/SVDp8

      • I am afraid we will go from "hurt me plenty" to... [#101106]
        By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

        I am afraid we will go from “hurt me plenty” to “ultra-violence”, if the TED-spread does not break its rising trend. Anyone want to play DOOM? ;-)

        (file attached)

    • The TED spread peaked on June 16th 2010 at 48 and change... [#101107]
      By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

      The TED spread peaked on June 16th 2010 at 48 and change. Today it printed over 54 before closing at 52+. I too see this as troubling.

      If the central banks of the world were trying to provide increased liquidity, it has yet to show up price-wise in the usual places…

      • I agree that the upward trend in 3-month LIBOR is a bit of... [#101108]
        By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

        I agree that the upward trend in 3-month LIBOR is a bit of a concern and worth keeping a close eye on. However, I am not sure where this idea that 50 basis points level being the barometer for market health came from?

        I looked at a 20-year history of the spread between 3-month LIBOR and 3-month Treasury rates. Average over 20 years was 45 basis points so 50 basis points being the barometer seems a bit off?

        Another thing to think about is that a modest rise in short-term treasury rates could quickly narrow that spread. Could this be in the cards as part of our operation twist?

        Anyways, not trying to argue that TED spread is not a concern, just trying to give a little perspective. If this short term LIBOR locomotive doesn’t slow down it will be interesting to see how the rising spread gets resolved.

      • Is now the time to exit or go short? TED spread first clue?... [#101120]
        By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

        Is now the time to exit or go short? TED spread first clue? Then again, Bill’s weekly chart of $TNX versus EMA 8 is very close to crossing on up. Watching close tomorrow.

        • ALOHA!! There are a number of lawsuits pending against the... [#101122]
          By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

          ALOHA!!

          There are a number of lawsuits pending against the BBA(British Bankers Assoc) that maintains the LIBOR rates have been manipulated much lower than the actual inter-bank rates for many years now. If this is the case then what good is the TED SPREAD? In fact it becomes another victim of manipulation like the CPI.

          What’s at stake? The $360TRIL global wholesale money market is all! More detail on this topic in the next SOUND MONEY …

  33. MoKat, No argument here. The US is in deep trouble, too... [#101102]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    MoKat,

    No argument here. The US is in deep trouble, too. If you are from Europe, then I apologize if I gave offense, but I do stand by my point that Eurpoe will crater first.

    The US still has an entrepeneurial spirit (Facebook, Google, Apple) that swims laps around anything coming out of the Continent. The environment for doing business is better in the States, although perhaps less so than in years past (Sarbanes Oxley gave a temporary boost to the London IPO market).

    Regardless, I concede your point that the high standard of Western Civilization is going to inevitably decline, I’m just more optimistic that we here in the States will figure something out before its too late. The US is too big to fail…a lot of peripheral Europe looks too small to survive without giving up a lot of sovereignty to Berlin.

    Peace.

  34. At 3pm I was going to go long on ES at 1239 but chickened... [#101105]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    At 3pm I was going to go long on ES at 1239 but chickened out. I felt it really could have went back all the way up to the top of the range or break down. So i waited until we tested top of range and caught the break out to new highs.

    on the down side i didnt wake up early enough today to catch the monster move, but i will take 1 trade, 6 ES points, any day. Stick and move.

    Where do we go from here? i dont know. maybe 200 day ma?

    as for my take on this rally. I will gladly profit from it, but i do not suspect it will lead to new highs. but anything is possible in this casino. Wear your lucky underwear.

  35. If I am reading the news correctly, we are bailing out the... [#101111]
    By: Bruce909 (41 comments) Go to top ↑

    If I am reading the news correctly, we are bailing out the european union. Won’t that have a negative effect on inflation? If so – when?

  36. And fiat money that can be stolen from the workers pensions... [#101115]
    By: bigwad1 (768 comments) Go to top ↑

    And fiat money that can be stolen from the workers pensions for the powerful elite.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRaDxiWjSdE&feature

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn5A3VhQI4U&feature

  37. Today something bothered me. Yes, I am sure each day things... [#101114]
    By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑

    Today something bothered me. Yes, I am sure each day things bother us, but this still is. I believe it is just a hand full of people who control what we see in the USA on the television screens. I saw a graphic a few days ago showing who it was. The networks are fed by the few.

    Along comes a company who makes a sharp clay animation type computer generated commercial that says the United States government is passing out paper money (guess who) and just maybe gold will do better than handfuls of cash down the road.

    For the crowd who is to busy to listen to the TV they add some eye candy in the form of the puppet government guys tossing cash and showing Fort Knox full of IOU’s. Their pitch man is Pat Boone and he is there like all the commercial before but also now clay stuff.

    No network will allow them to air it. The say it is not the content that gold is better than money down the road, but that political images can’t be used in advertising.

    We cartoon and lampoon them daily.

    Just wondered who made that rule.

    We should write down what we demand from a government. Things, like freedom of the press and speech when no one is harmed. If they have taken away our First Amendment right to communicate reasonably, as they control the airways then were we watching and what you going to due about it?

    http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=3

    In the real world today my USLV was up 9.13% compared to PSLV (2.87%) which I traded in a week or so ago.

    Warning: I don’t profess to know a thing about what I am doing or where the market will be in 5 minutes, but if I have the long picture right–Bam baby.

  38. ... [#101116]
    By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑
  39. (EU) EU ministers warned to save the euro in 10 days or see... [#101119]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    (EU) EU ministers warned to save the euro in 10 days or see EU fall apart – Guardian

    - The Guardian reported that the warning from EU commissioner Rehn came following the intervention by the central banks.
    - Rehn: The EMU will either have to be completed through much deeper integration or we will have to accept a gradual disintegration of over half a century of European integration.
    - EU finance ministers were told bluntly that unchecked debt and banking crisis would push Europe into a deep slump affecting the rest of the world.
    - EU president Van Rompuy: The trouble has become systemic. We are witnessing a fully blown confidence crisis.

    • It's just a typical bank run but with MEGA monies seeking a... [#101121]
      By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

      It’s just a typical bank run but with MEGA monies seeking a safer shelter outside the Eurozone. The smart money has already moved. God forbid we see lines of peasants waiting to withdraw what’s left!

      Todays ‘liquid injection’ only enables the run to continue. Nothing has been solved. What the ‘Eurobanks’ need to do is give away toasters if you Don’t close your account!

  40. A Club of Liars, Demagogues and... [#101125]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    A Club of Liars, Demagogues and Ignoramuses

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,8

    Not even Ron Paul is spared. A summary of the vices, foolishness and demagoguery for readers who’ve managed to stay clean of this political farce. It’s certainly a different spin to the US media handling.

  41. Looks like gold and silver are beginning their assault on... [#101126]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    Looks like gold and silver are beginning their assault on the previous high as we near EoY, as Bill was forecasting. I’m looking for a confirmation of or break from the previous pull back & rest cycle gold took in 2008. Looking strikingly similar at the moment, as is the DJIA monthly chart I posted earlier.

    If it confirms going into 2012 will keep the new powder dry and buy the dip as a new, higher base is built around $1400. Dunno yet if I want to balance out the buying with a bit of gold or just keep buying silver with an eye to the historical 16:1 ratio. See attached. JMO

  42. ... [#101127]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  43. The Indian economy expanded at its slowest pace in more... [#101128]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    The Indian economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than two years in the July-September quarter, hurt by high local borrowing costs and a deepening euro-zone crisis.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth

    You can see it in bar graph format. A repeat of 2008/9. How low it goes before pulling out?

  44. http://thestar.blogs.com/autoracing/2011/12/shocke... I... [#101167]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://thestar.blogs.com/autoracing/2011/12/shocke

    I find it really sad that during the good years, the two series owners fought until one went bankrupt. Now the other one is in a heck of a state.