Bill Cara’s Blog for May 8, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Most tops can be described as processes.

Most bottoms can be described as events.

Tops can take weeks to play out as overbought markets generate sell signals followed by the shorts that took those signals getting squeezed. That action drives the market higher when it looks like it should be falling.

Bottoms typically end with a whooshing sound as the last of the longs throw in the towel in a final, fear induced climax low that marks the end to the decline.

I have been writing here about watching for that final climax low in gold that will be constructive towards the next bull market in the yellow metal. A bull market that could bring the miner:gold ratio back to historic averages which would generate returns that will blow your hair back. So far, the whooshing sound has not been heard.

This bottom in gold, and we believe that the odds are very good that we are bottoming, has been more of a process so far. That means that many traders patience has run out and they don’t believe in the miners anymore so most have exited their positions and won’t get back in until the sector is much higher than today.

Yesterday, the US Dollar formed a reversal candle on day 4 of its rally which sets it up for a decline in the greenback from here. That price action would help both stocks and commodities, so we are watching for the dollar to continue the cycle price action from the January high.

However, that does not rule out a final climax event in gold. Yes, the dollar formed a reversal candle, but should it rally one more time, gold could get hit into a final low and, albeit painful, it would be the best price action for gold bulls.

With that said, here is what I wrote last week:

May 3rd:

“Years ago, I made the statement that the gold bull market would end when the public talked about the mining stocks like they did the technology companies in 1999. I don’t think that parties will be filled with banter about proven and probable reserves, but you get my point. With that in mind, yesterday I read that a recent Gallup survey found that the American public thinks that the safest long term investment available to them today is gold. Here’s the breakdown of the survey:

28% chose gold
20% chose real estate
19% chose CDs
19% chose stocks/mutual funds
8% chose bonds
6% chose other/no opinion

This same survey was done in August of 2011 when the price of gold was near its all time high and 34% of those surveyed chose gold at that time. Because gold still holds the top spot after being much lower 8 months later, I would not be surprised to see the 34% number exceeded when gold is at $1900 again.

The gold market is a relatively small market and as money managers and the public become more engaged in the yellow metal, the price will make new highs along with the miners. In 1997, most people had little idea what Cisco or EMC did, but at the height of the bubble in 2000, most people knew exactly what they did and owned the companies. When everyone owns Newmont, look to get out – but we are no where near that point now.

I don’t expect this dollar bounce to last too long, maybe a week at the most. That should give traders a few more chances at the miners at these lower prices.

With Europe falling back into recession and the US slowing, our prediction of more liquidity programs seems virtually assured.

Got gold?”

Keep your powder dry, you may need it.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,089.50 6:45AM EDT Up 21.50 (1.04%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,187.00 6:37AM EDT Up 3.00 (0.14%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,149.62 6:59AM EDT Down 64.60 (2.01%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,497.94 6:45AM EDT Down 71.54 (1.09%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 301.70 6:45AM EDT Down 3.04 (1.00%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 465.70 6:45AM EDT Down 2.38 (0.51%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 320.60 6:44AM EDT Down 3.45 (1.07%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,003.39 6:45AM EDT Down 36.79 (0.61%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,634.12 6:45AM EDT Down 20.94 (0.37%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 916.10 May 7 Down 3.00 (0.33%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,378.56 7:00AM EDT Down 10.08 (0.73%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 629.52 6:44AM EDT Down 14.35 (2.23%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth

My journey to finding a wedding suit

I am no fan of wearing suits to work every day. Old habits die hard and the financial industry continues to demand formal dress codes of it’s staff- both those who are paid more than enough to afford it and the vast majority who need discount deals to look the part.

My own search for deals on suits started over a year ago after requiring extensive upgrades to a wardrobe that was dated, way too big (both because styles moved to slimmer cuts and I lost a good 20 pounds) and in need of something more formal. Trips to department stores and high-end retailers left me somewhat uneasy: I had no idea what I was doing and suits ranged in price from $250 to $2500. Very often I couldn’t tell how much a suit would cost by looking at it or feeling the fabric; price appeared almost arbitrary.

With time and effort I began to understand more and more, I learned about different cuts, materials and which brands were priced higher for the name and others that were more competitive. I wrote previously about an ebay retailer I found called “The Wizard of Ahs”, and successfully ordered proper work suits for less than half the prices paid at a department store. This was critical work, not only because I upgraded my suit wardrobe but because I save a large sum doing it, freeing up extra cash for other purchases.

Suits are a bit of a fetish hobby for me now, and I hate seeing so many poorly dressed guys on Bay street spending more than they have to while still looking like they are wearing their father’s suits. A man should feel like a king in a good suit, even if it costs him a quarter of what the 1 percent-ers are paying.

Eventually I started looking for a suit for my upcoming wedding. It demanded something several steps up from the bargain basement options I had previously looked to. I starting visiting travelling suit shows for more variety and customization, these were events where men pick through swatches of material, get measured and suits would be constructed in low-cost regions such Asia at competitive prices. I found a small Canadian born retailer of custom suits called Suits in the City and compared to a few of the larger shows, I found in them the right mix of price and quality that I will stick to for future purchases.

Started by Paul Abrams in 2008, Suits in the City came about following a trip to Hong Kong tailors that convinced him Canada was ripe for a travelling custom suit product. Suits range from $575 up to about $1600 depending on the fabric, this range is similar to most of the large travelling suit shows that construct their product in Asia such as Maxwell Clothiers and Raja Fashions.

For the office worker who needs suits for daily wear I would stick to base level suiting that fits well and allows for enough movement to prevent tearing. If your budget allows, give a mid-rang suit with a finer “super 120″ fabric a try, but be careful, there are no shortage of bulky suits made with good fabrics, fit and construction are key.

For Canadians, we know our most popular options for suits are at the low to medium end are Moores, Tip Top or The Bay and at the high-end a Harry Rosen or Gotstyle in Toronto. The base model suits at the first 3 stores generally sell for about $400-500. These are cheap suits fused with glue in Asia. They will fall apart after weekly wear day in and day out. In my own observations the $575 model I bought from Suits in the City would match up against a $700-800 suit purchases at The Bay or a low end Hugo Boss at Harry Rosen, all being partially canvassed for a better feel and durability.

This is where good scoping of retailers is critical: I spent $100 more than a cheap suit for something that looks better, will last longer and fits properly. Fit is half the battle when it comes to suits, most men fail to understand this and its what makes a cheap suit look double the price when the right man is wearing it well.

For some guys $575 might be even too much for them, if that’s the case consider buying suits at bargain sale bins during the off months at Tip Top, just understand that the costs to tailor it properly could add considerably to the costs for the suit. (Add to that the shorter life span of these products, you might be setting yourself up for more headaches in the future).

Buying a suit, or updating your wardrobe for work can be a significant expense, just remember if you elect to buy retail that most stores vastly overcharge for what they are offering, and any notions of “Italian” suits, or “custom made” are nonsense under $600 retail. If you are just starting out in finance and will be locked into a suit 4 days out of 5 each week, consider starting with the basic grey and blue suits and some solid dress shirts. These stay in fashion longer and are suitable for most occasions. If you are in search of something more formal for a special event or wedding, consider going up a notch or two into the bespoke or made to measure region. This is where you can spend $1500 or $1000 for the exact same suit depending on where you go. Shop around, consider your options and sales, but dont neglect the travelling suit shows that come to most major North American cities, my experience with 2 different companies has been generally favourable, and I still maintain you can buy decent work suits on e-bay for under $400 if you fit into a standard off the rack size.

For my wedding suit I discovered a Made to measure program at Gotstyle Menswear in Toronto that suited both my father and I in something better than usual, and in a fit that was slimmer and modern for me and classic for my father. This is key when selecting suits for multiple people such as wedding parties, people’s bodies are different as are their particular tastes. Within such a framework a personalized tailor can ensure you are comfortable in your new suit while still maintaining a sense of style. After wearing the suit for the big day I realized why the extra costs of hand-crafting are worth it: I was comfortable, it moved with my body, breathed and was lighter than most off the rack suits. It is a delicate piece of clothing and I can only wear it for special events but that suits me fine, I take out my cheaper suits for everything else, and just change up the tie’s to stay fresh!

Guys will expend titanic amounts of energy to earn an extra %1 ROI in a year, for a $100,000 portfolio that’s $1000. With some time and effort you can save that amount easily simply by finding the right spot to buy your next 2 suits.

Use your head gang,

Jeff Borsato


  1. 7:30 AM ET NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 7:45 AM ET... [#108534]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 7:30 AM ET NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
    • 7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
    • 8:55 AM ET Redbook
    • 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction
    • 1:00 PM ET 3-Yr Note Auction
  2. Good morning. CTSH - Upgraded to Outperform @ Robert W... [#108538]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    CTSH – Upgraded to Outperform @ Robert W. Baird based on valuation, solid revenue growth, and a strong balance sheet. Price target is $76.

    EA – Upgraded to Buy @ Needham based on expectations for growth to accelerate in 2013 driven by digital revenues. Price target is $22.

    ERJ – Embraer downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup citing valuation but raised its price target for shares to $35 from $32

    ——

    Outside the Cara 100 universe:

    DRD – DRDGOLD downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.

    GOLD – Randgold Resources upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan.

    ——

    “Resistance to tyranny is service to God.” ~ James Madison

  3. With all this talk about trillion dollar deficits...doesn't... [#108540]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    With all this talk about trillion dollar deficits…doesn’t this amount of gold count for something? CNBC says that the US has more than $418B of it.

    If the deficit is 1.2T, but the US holds gold bullion worth nearly 1/3rd of that, aren’t we sufficiently hedged to redeem treasury paper in gold if we have to? In effect, buying back our own debt with gold (the ultimate destroyer of debt)?

    If the premise is that gold will only rise in value as the currency of last resort, than it seems to me that the US is the world’s biggest gold bug and really has little to worry about…in addition to issuing the world’s reserve currency.

    Too simplistic?

    • ... [#108546]
      By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

      Yes.

    • nebish, Debt rather than deficit is what you need to focus... [#108550]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      nebish,

      Debt rather than deficit is what you need to focus on. The US debt is now $16 trillion and is expanding at the rate of $4 billion a day. So all the gold in Ft Knox (lol) is good for 100 days.

      Got gold?

    • ... [#108552]
      By: Scott (328 comments) Go to top ↑
    • nebish - Reserve currency today just means the major... [#108562]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      nebish -

      Reserve currency today just means the major currency used to trade oil. Unfortunately, by sanctioning Iran through its removal from the SWIFT system of bank exchange, the U.S. has now triggered China and India to support Iran’s big oil for gold instead of U.S. dollars. So U.S. reserve status is doomed and will be replaced by a partially backed currency likely to be SDRs (IMF) supported by Sec of State Hillary or the Renmimbi once either one is partially backed by a hard asset like gold. Watch the G20 for a resolution.

      If the U.S. were to stop using the Whale (JPMorgan Chase) to surpress the price of bullion on the Comex and London exchanges and even reset official Fort Knox bullion to say $12,000/oz., all of the U.S. debt could be extinguished lickedy split. If an audit of Fort Knox revealed that the gold was gone or pledged, however, the Federal Reserve Note’s status as the reserve currency (PetroDollar) would go poof in a nano second. So you have to ask yourself, why hasn’t Fort Knox been audited since Rep. Phil Crane’s media stunt shortly after Nixon closed the gold window in the early 1970s?

      Although not backed by gold/silver, note that the countries with the most bullion hold sway over the EU vote and the U.S. maintains FRN reserve status for now while the BRIC countries quietly but feverishly accummulate their gold stockpiles in an effort to gain global status equivalent to having THE BOMB.

      Fiat money will be replaced soon with some form of partial backing but you’ll have to wait for default to clear the decks.

      Pledging Fort Knox gold at today’s bullion price to pay off one-third of debt would: (1) Require a Fort Knox audit; (2) Destroy the FRN (PetroDollar) reserve status; (3) Make treasury interest rates soar as default risk on uncollateralized gov’t debt formerly secured (infurred) by Fort Knox gold would explode; (4) Offer no resolution to the present consumption-based economic quagmire brought on by an outsized/rogue financial sector.

      This may help:

      http://victorthecleaner.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/t

  4. $39.71 is the 61.8% fib retracement from Oct 2011 lows... [#108541]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    $39.71 is the 61.8% fib retracement from Oct 2011 lows which really seems to be a breakdown in this stock but also may be a good point to put on some calls – possable…
    Earl

    • Many things to watch at the moment in this space if you... [#108544]
      By: goldbug58 (370 comments) Go to top ↑

      Many things to watch at the moment in this space if you meant by BP, British Petroleum; HES, PBR, COP.

      In basic materials looking at CLF and FCX, check valuations keeping in mind that FCX was split 2:1 not too long ago (2010?).

      No positions in these but may initiate CLF on further weakness.

      • Where is the oil spill????? We are at critical support... [#108556]
        By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

        Where is the oil spill????? We are at critical support here. If we break this it could be choppy down to $35 – CF is at critical support here too – GLD holding 155.5 but not making a call on any of this. I put DIA on my chart now watching 4 items – set alerts, time for a break…

        Earl

        • Wait it out, under... [#108560]
          By: goldbug58 (370 comments) Go to top ↑

          Wait it out, under $40…

        • BP - if we do not exceed 6.3MM shares to the downside today... [#108564]
          By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

          BP – if we do not exceed 6.3MM shares to the downside today I’ll start buying the october calls – provided that today shapes up to be the worst day of the week;-) all things considered – BTW, no cnbc, no fox news, no tv no nothing but p/a. The dollar want’s to push higher… argggggg

          Earl

          • The $ is hovering right around 1.300, eh, who knows... [#108569]
            By: goldbug58 (370 comments) Go to top ↑

            The $ is hovering right around 1.300, eh, who knows, really, where’s that’s going; S&P500 off some 20 points and intuition is saying that’s not over yet…

            More weakness in miners today; ABX, GG, NEM, KGC, EGO, GDXJ and GDX all made new 52-wk lows. Steel, oil, coal, most basic materials all much weaker…

            Let me know when the selling stops, Earl.

          • LOL;-) Hi goldbug58. this market has been headed up for a... [#108578]
            By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

            LOL;-) Hi goldbug58. this market has been headed up for a long time, since oct 3rd lows. overall market volume has been in decline – traders can’t make money like that… they need to stir the pot. I can only hope this is sideways action and not the harbinger of july 27, 2011… this provides the perfect opportunity to study price/action/volume – I’m loving it.

  5. Looking for at least a fib retracement of 38.2%, $88.15 to... [#108542]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Looking for at least a fib retracement of 38.2%, $88.15 to take off my puts – maybe not today but it will have to fill some of that gap with a bull flag at least.
    Earl

  6. My ears are hearing the "whoosh" that Geoff described this... [#108543]
    By: chester (1 comments) Go to top ↑

    My ears are hearing the “whoosh” that Geoff described this a.m. Actually I feel the “whoosh” in my chest….How low can we go?

  7. CTSH - numbers were lowered at Oppenheimer. Shares are now... [#108547]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    CTSH – numbers were lowered at Oppenheimer. Shares are now seen reaching $72. Estimates were also lowered on guidance moderation. Outperform rating.

    EA – Electronic Arts downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair.

    EA – numbers were lowered at Citigroup. Shares are now seen reaching $19. Estimates were also lowered on negative fundamental trends. Buy rating.

    ——

    Outside the Cara 100 Universe:

    AUMN – Golden Minerals downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy at TD Securities.

  8. Anyone have a number for gold support... [#108548]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Anyone have a number for gold support level?

    Thanks,
    BH

    • Bull Hunter, As Ron Sen points out, the market is likely... [#108551]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bull Hunter,

      As Ron Sen points out, the market is likely enduring a climax move. Support levels relate to a different time, a different environment. Climaxes are for the moment.

    • BH - I'm not a good TA person but I'm trying to learn it... [#108554]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      BH – I’m not a good TA person but I’m trying to learn it without ‘noise’. Over the weekend I did many longer term studies and picked $155 as bottom in GLD – but as you know on longer term (I went out to 15 years) it could be off quite a bit. Today I’m concentrating on SLV at 28, watching price/action along with UUP!!! price action and TLT same thing – that’s all I can focus on at one time. If things break down for SLV the next long term support (price battle area) is $26. The action between now and 2pm C may not reveal much – the last hour of p/a will be key. IMHO

      Earl

    • Painful plunge in the metals...the move up will hopefully... [#108563]
      By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

      Painful plunge in the metals…the move up will hopefully be a real scorcher.. :-)

      • Louise Yamada has an unbiased technical assessment of gold... [#108582]
        By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

        Louise Yamada has an unbiased technical assessment of gold and silver which she posted on 4 May on Eric King’s site, Kingworld.

        I’ve always trusted her work.

  9. based on implied volatility, corrected to daily at the... [#108549]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    based on implied volatility, corrected to daily at the money, 1 volatility band for GLD today was 1.17 points, now GLD down almost 3 standard deviations…climax move?

    Formula = price x average at the money implied vol for puts and calls x 0.052342 (corrects to daily IV)

  10. The only ones around here are on the golf course, and their... [#108553]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    The only ones around here are on the golf course, and their tiny;-) I would not be safe…

    SUSQ – this little bank is thriving in this market – no position, did not hit my price and took off.

    Earl

  11. Calculated from ivolatility.com data (as examples) BRKB... [#108557]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    Calculated from ivolatility.com data (as examples)

    BRKB 0.64
    CHRW 0.75
    CMI 1.95
    DIA 1.05
    FXI 0.46
    GDXJ 0.50
    GLD 1.17
    GS 1.60
    IWM 1.00
    NEM 0.78
    SPY 1.24
    VALE 0.43

    What the bands help show is the statistical magnitude of the move (and the mood). In other words, an SPY drop today of 2.5 points would ‘only’ be a 2 SD move.

    The average daily return and the standard deviation of the daily return on the S&P 500 Index over the last two decades have been about 0.066% and 0.96%, respectively. On October 19, 1987, the index had a return of 20.5%, which is approximately a 20-sigma event. (lost the reference on this one by Vinod Chandrashekaran)

    The spreadsheet calculates 1 volatility band; 1.5 bands encompasses 85% of usual price action, 2 bands = 95%, and so on.

  12. So the company I trade with now, TD Ameritrade, moves... [#108558]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

    So the company I trade with now, TD Ameritrade, moves slowly but surely. I moved to Thailand about a year and a half ago, and they just figured this out. Turns out, even though I’m a tax-paying American citizen, they won’t do business with me if I live here. Too risky, apparently.

    Lucky me, I’m now reduced to “closing trades only.” I’ve been a customer of theirs for more than 15 years.

    It will take between 4 to 8 days to transfer my account somewhere else.

    • HotForex will no longer do business with U.S. citizens and... [#108584]
      By: JimG (299 comments) Go to top ↑

      HotForex will no longer do business with U.S. citizens and all existing accounts must be closed by June 5, 2012. One of the managing partners, stated the CFTC notified them on Monday [April 30] that they would hold the partners and officers of the company personally liable if they failed to expunge U.S. clients.

  13. http://thetrustadvisor.com/wealth-tech-news/secrecy This... [#108559]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://thetrustadvisor.com/wealth-tech-news/secrecy

    This author points to the $300 million a year spent on lobbyists by Wall Street with the goal of helping maintain their culture of secrecy, which is now under attack.

    Yesterday, I pointed to how required public filings to Canada’s regulators are being accessed by Wall Street a day before the rest of us, as Wall Street has paid the regulators for that right.

    This window of secrecy is pervasive. Why for example does the public have to settle for 15/20 minute delayed data on transactions, prevented by egregiously high real time prices.

    It all stinks and we all know it.

    Wall Street preaches transparency and practices the opposite.

    • Jeff Saut of Raymond James told me (at least five years... [#108561]
      By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

      Jeff Saut of Raymond James told me (at least five years ago) of a room (in Washington) with a hundred monitors with market prices from around the world, which are constantly reviewed.

      If one has no plan to do something with the information, why collect it? Got intervention?

  14. DELL with loads of cash, has a 1 SD move today by... [#108565]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    DELL with loads of cash, has a 1 SD move today by volatility bands. GLD (which is money) is down 3.5 SD. Go figure.

    • Hi Ron - selling pressure is picking up on UUP but from a... [#108574]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Ron – selling pressure is picking up on UUP but from a higher level – we have moved up through a descending line started on Jan 13. Possible next target would be 22.1 – HUGE OUCH if that happens over the next couple weeks but hope not.

      Oversold & BB indicators which I like too – http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/2012/05/08/rolling

      I’m going to sell longs into any market upside – longer term OBVs indicators are pointing down.

      GLD – we have a new gap from 157.78 from APR 25th that should be filled some time hopefully this week.

      My personal feeling here is the market is taking out stops either side of the previous day. I’d say with most global issues priced in (x any black swans) this is the case; with a bias to the downside for a while, may be the classic sell in May…;-)

      Earl

  15. pondering how when the market was rallying, "...Europe... [#108566]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    pondering how when the market was rallying, “…Europe doesn’t matter… it’s all priced in…”. Now, as the market declines, suddenly the headlines ‘reak’ of “…fears that Europe cannot solve debt crisis… Greek government concern…! “

  16. LOL at the old... [#108567]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    LOL at the old fart$

    http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sites/default/fil

    Now, off to another beautiful PNW day in the garden

  17. ... [#108568]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑
  18. Rick at... [#108570]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    Rick at cnbc.

  19. Good morning !... I am still waiting on GLD... This move is... [#108572]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning !… I am still waiting on GLD… This move is giving lots of deep pockets the time to reload… I like the 1550 level, but one never knows. Last year I pondered the fact that the 1250 ish level was never filled. Who knows… I am using the 5 year charts for the miners… that is why I was looking for IAG in lower $ 9′s… NEM could see $ 39 based on that. As more unrest breaks loose ( the ol’ ‘ nationalism ‘ issue ) I am not real confident in the international developers. That leaves the juniors exclusively in Canada, US., Mexico, Australia and other ‘ safe ‘ havens looking good ( although you never really know what can happen )… take care.

  20. Just watched Art on CNBC....he thinks that Greece will end... [#108573]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Just watched Art on CNBC….he thinks that Greece will end up leaving the Euro, leading to runs on the bank in Spain and Italy.

    ——

    “When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro” – Hunter S. Thompson

  21. Can you imagine? Oogle stores ALL your information up... [#108575]
    By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

    Can you imagine? Oogle stores ALL your information up there, but doesn’t shoot a copy of your calendar to your pc or phone.

    So, they have a technical glitch and you’re SOL.

    Guess I’ll have to go back to Microsuck !!!!

  22. Bill, I dont need to tell you that there will be a flight... [#108579]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bill, I dont need to tell you that there will be a flight to US$ from French rich and Greeks. Tax the rich, the entrepreneurs who built the system so that picket waving socialists can go on a march down the Champs Elysee. The US$ will gain some strength here and commodities will feel the shock wave. It could be a spike before the next round of printing to assuage the French Socialists. At that point, gold takes a move and g stocks fly.

  23. Bottom fishing on... [#108580]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bottom fishing on GLD

    http://goo.gl/Jl9yw

  24. China imported some 135,000+ kilograms of gold from HK in... [#108581]
    By: goldbug58 (370 comments) Go to top ↑

    China imported some 135,000+ kilograms of gold from HK in Q1 2012 versus “only” 19,000+ kgs in Q1 2011…interesting…where’s all that darned gold coming from?

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-07/china-

    • PPP - was it you goldbug58 that mentioned PPP a week or so... [#108585]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      PPP – was it you goldbug58 that mentioned PPP a week or so back? Anyway – this little jewel is holding up nice in this market. Once this dollar move has played out I think this one will shine. I bought 500 shares at 2.95 and will add to this later, when it breaks through long term resistance of $3.10… If buyers like it, I like it.

  25. Wish I new where it was. I would guess the oil price will... [#108583]
    By: jimddavis (98 comments) Go to top ↑

    Wish I new where it was. I would guess the oil price will be telling. I expect oil to hit around $90 before a strong bottom or good bounce in gold. Anyone see a correlation here with gold and oil. Getting gasoline down before the election is a big goal and concern of the current US administration. Therefore, not much money printing until that happens. Just an opinion.

    • I've seen wags at around 1550, also seen 1450 touted; no... [#108588]
      By: goldbug58 (370 comments) Go to top ↑

      I’ve seen wags at around 1550, also seen 1450 touted; no one knows, of course. I dipped in today with very small [minute, even] positions in a couple of miners that I will add to, i.e. my feeling is the selling is not over yet and I expect lower, but just in case I’m wrong, I’d at least catch a small part of the move higher [translation = zero intestinal fortitude].

    • f.w.i.w. Here is a chart that was posted in September of... [#108597]
      By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

      f.w.i.w. Here is a chart that was posted in September of last year. (As I recall, a friend of B. Cara’s sent it to him.)

  26. Volume has been anemic since the March time frame. I'm... [#108586]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Volume has been anemic since the March time frame. I’m setting an alert, line in sand here for 22.12 – would love to see a shooting star here but not counting on it.

  27. FT reports: "Wave of anger breaks in Netherlands" A wave... [#108587]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    FT reports: “Wave of anger breaks in Netherlands”
    A wave of popular anger in the Netherlands over bonuses has prompted executives at several companies that received state support during the financial crisis to renounce their incentive pay, writes Matt Steinglass

  28. ... [#108590]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑
  29. and after seeing the Euro bounce ck as well as the NQ... [#108591]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    and after seeing the Euro bounce ck as well as the NQ trimming half its loss, i would have to say today was a great day to pick up shares on sale.

    • Is today a day for nibbling, or a day to back up the truck... [#108593]
      By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

      Is today a day for nibbling, or a day to back up the truck for PM’s and miners?

    • Hi NYUGrad; RGR we could fill the March 22 gap, maybe down... [#108602]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi NYUGrad; RGR we could fill the March 22 gap, maybe down to $44, then a technical bounce – I’ll be watching this on – I covered my puts way too early.

  30. Bottom at the end of 2008 at approx 150 Top in Q3 2011 at... [#108592]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bottom at the end of 2008 at approx 150
    Top in Q3 2011 at approx 640

    fib 61.8: 453
    fib 50: 395
    fib 38.2: 337

    It gives you some perspective on the move up and down. 398 was reached today which means that the move was retraced to 50%. I am buying here, e.g. SMF which is showing signs of support.

  31. Hi guys, while since I last posted but read your stuff... [#108594]
    By: worthcap (152 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi guys, while since I last posted but read your stuff daily. Suffering with long drawdown like many on this sige with the PM stocks. Swapped out of our MUX for RBY couple of weeks ago after tne Chile takeover/nationalization of another company. Reason is two fold – looking for something non LA and looking for better RS. RBY has (at least today) held it’s prior week low which is more than I can say for many of the other PM stocks, and it’s sole project is in Canada. Everyone seems to be buying the juniors in search of takeout by GG, well RBY is taking GG Execs and is adjacent to GG in Canada; seems to make more tactical sense to me and I like the RS. FD – long small amount of RBY (second time around on this one). Best to all
    Also like the RS of COSWF in the oil stock group, nice yield, low debt, low McD ratio.

  32. GDX long... [#108595]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    GDX long trade

    http://goo.gl/UfVXd

    • It may be the catch of the day, but was it the catch of the... [#108604]
      By: jimddavis (98 comments) Go to top ↑

      It may be the catch of the day, but was it the catch of the week? If 42 holds, tomorrow it may just be. However, I see another leg down to around 40. I hope I’m wrong.

      • Since it was a day trade for me, whatever tomorrow brings... [#108605]
        By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

        Since it was a day trade for me, whatever tomorrow brings will be just another opportunity… I can’t view this market as suitable for swing trades on a long side until clear signs of the reversal appear on daily chart; nor do I see it as an appropriate spot to initiate new long term trades.

  33. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-06/japan-switch... got... [#108596]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Hi Les - you're correct - they will need LNG! More oil, and... [#108598]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Les – you’re correct – they will need LNG! More oil, and coal.

  34. Reminded me of 2011 short in the morning long in the... [#108599]
    By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

    Reminded me of 2011 short in the morning long in the afternoon flat into the close. Hope it goes into a range like 1348 to 1425 S&P; be a nice way to spend the summer.

  35. picked up some OCT 8 calls around noon. nice bounce off... [#108600]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    picked up some OCT 8 calls around noon. nice bounce off long term trend line. I’m not risking much, put in a trailing stop.

  36. ... for non-FB users Interestingly enough, the day overall... [#108601]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    … for non-FB users

    Interestingly enough, the day overall was in red for us and barely creeped back in the money at the end… misread a few trades in the morning. However, in an educational department, it yielded more interesting charts than usual

    http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2012/05/may-08

  37. MUX McEwen Mining provides first quarter 2012 operational... [#108603]
    By: tradish (27 comments) Go to top ↑

    MUX McEwen Mining provides first quarter 2012 operational and development update: cash and liquid assets of $66.7 mln, San Jose mine remains on target to meet full-year production guidance of 85,000 ounces of gold (3.15 -0.05)

    Co reported cash and liquid assets of $66.7 mln, comprised of cash of $41.1 mln, silver and gold bullion at market value of $21.4 mln, short-term investments of $3.1 mln and marketable securities of $1.1 mln. The company continues to hold a significant portion of its treasury in bullion with the belief that prices will continue to rise. The company remains debt free. For the remainder of 2012, company-wide exploration and construction expenditures, including down payments on long lead time equipment for El Gallo Phase 2, are expected to total approximately $50 mln. Final production results for the San Jose mine during the First Quarter totaled 20,357 ounces of gold and 1,355,678 ounces of silver or 45,936 ounces of gold equivalent (converting the silver into gold using a 53:1 exchange ratio) (100% basis). The San Jose mine remains on target to meet full-year production guidance of 85,000 ounces of gold and 5.7 mln ounces of silver or 192,500 ounces of gold equivalent. Cash Costs during the period totaled $697 per ounce gold and $13.90 per ounce silver on a co-product basis

  38. Just ran down the list and this one looks to be rolling... [#108606]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Just ran down the list and this one looks to be rolling over a little more then others.

    good luck to everyone tomorrow – I’ll be out of the loop.

    Earl

  39. RIM hired key additions to its executive leadership team... [#108608]
    By: SyncMaster152T (166 comments) Go to top ↑

    RIM hired key additions to its executive leadership team with the hiring of Kristian Tear as Chief Operating Officer and Frank Boulben as Chief Marketing Officer.

    Kristian Tear joins RIM from Sony Mobile Communications, where he served as Executive Vice President. He previously held a variety of operational leadership positions with Ericsson in Europe, Asia and Latin America. At RIM, Mr. Tear will serve as Chief Operating Officer overseeing all operational functions for handhelds and services, including research and development, products, global sales, manufacturing and supply chain.

    Frank Boulben is the former Executive Vice President of Strategy, Marketing and Sales for LightSquared. He joined LightSquared after serving as Global Director of Commercial Strategy for Vodafone Group and Executive Vice President of Brand and Consumer Marketing for Orange Group. Mr. Boulben will oversee global marketing efforts at RIM.

  40. Gold/Silver futures market opens in... [#108609]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    Gold/Silver futures market opens in China.

  41. something very big is going on at NVAX.. early phase I, but... [#108610]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    something very big is going on at NVAX.. early phase I, but use of ‘ rsv ‘ vaccines is catching big pharma attention.

  42. http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/euro-st... "But... [#108611]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/euro-st

    “But we didn’t realise”… just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Political expediency trumps sound economic management. Funny how politicians dump known problems onto their successors laps long after they’ve disappeared from the media spotlight.

  43. Imports from Hong Kong were 135,529 kilograms (135.53... [#108612]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    Imports from Hong Kong were 135,529 kilograms (135.53 metric tons) between January and March, from 19,729 kilograms in the year-earlier period…

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-07/china-

    Gold imports exploding, futures exchanges opening. As Jesse points out yesterday and Armstrong intimated:

    I suspect strongly that… the US will lose its role as the world’s price setting leader in many markets because of its tolerance for fraud and manipulation.

    How do you say “buy/sell” in Cantonese? Puts this comex flush into perspective.

    Jesse again: “With regard to gold and silver, the premiums on the trusts and funds, which I put out earlier today, smell more like capitulation and a forming bottom than anything else. That is, unless the markets in general ‘fall out of bed’ as they did in 2008 in a panic selloff seeking liquidity.”

    Fleckenstein said: “As for precious metals, they were smoked again, as both gold and silver lost a couple of percent (despite huge Chinese and soon-to-be rekindled Indian demand). Metals stocks were worse than the metal (once again). With the benefit of hindsight, a case can be made that the action of the miners has been predicting the weakness in the metals themselves, as they were declining rather ominously on no particular bad operational news. This maybe stating the obvious, but I think we will know when this metals correction has ended when the miners and gold itself rally vigorously together.”

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/bill-fl

    Seems we’re all on the same page.

  44. ... [#108613]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
    • While I watch the destruction of my portfolio and wait for... [#108614]
      By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

      While I watch the destruction of my portfolio and wait for the bottom in gold and rebound of the miners, you have mentioned bullion before. By being in bullion do you mean choices similar to CEF or literally walking down to the bank and getting a bullion bar or some coins/Krugerrands.

      • No I hold silver bullion. It hedges destructive monetary... [#108616]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        No I hold silver bullion.

        It hedges destructive monetary policy being enacted by the SNB, that is, the purchase of unlimited quantities of $EUR to maintain a currency peg. This has long term consequences for the Franc.

        It also serves as a potential hard money asset in case of global credit failure. What it’s value will be in such a case I can only speculate.

        I also hold it physical so I am not obsessing over portfolio value on a daily basis, a hold that market trading has over me or so I have noted.

        I also anticipate increasing policy intervention, taxation etc directed towards the precious metals and commodity industries, as governments get increasingly desperate. Thus I want majority product hidden away, with less interest in companies like MUX that might find themselves hostage to a special tax like Australia pulled off a couple of years, to the detriment of shareholders.

        I expect monetary devaluation that hits the people’s purchasing power when the global oligarchy get together to start a new global currency system. Some physical assets MAY hedge against this loss of purchasing power. Market shares may too, if America hasn’t closed the stock market through emergency measures. Not something I’m willing to risk as I see the political situation becoming more dangerous as each year passes.

        I also noted in cashing in chips on my 2011 trading that despite having maintained my capital knife catching that spectacular SLV drop in August, I lost money on repatriation due to currency fluctuations. Because of this I now buy silver in local currency, to be stored locally. Where does this currency war take us 3 years from now, for those trying to move money around the world? On top of this, capital controls would appear likely at some point in the future. Don’t want our money stuck in America.

        Finally, I like Martenson’s argument that no, global oil is not about to disappear. BUT, the cost of energy to create GDP is about to increase significantly, as the deep water drilling disaster of the GOM illustrated. Oil more expensive = everything more expensive. Metals included I would suspect.

        Many reasons to stock a little away in physical format. Not something I’d bet the farm on though. I choose the riskier metal – silver.

        These plunges and squeezes are noise to me. A desperate system shaking retail traders for every cent they’ve got. Heaven knows I’ve fed the beast enough. The bullion ensures some of it stays out of the casino longer term.

        my $.02