Bill Cara’s Blog for May 3, 2012
CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[8:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.
Years ago, I made the statement that the gold bull market would end when the public talked about the mining stocks like they did the technology companies in 1999. I don’t think that parties will be filled with banter about proven and probable reserves, but you get my point. With that in mind, yesterday I read that a recent Gallup survey found that the American public thinks that the safest long term investment available to them today is gold. Here’s the breakdown of the survey:
28% chose gold
20% chose real estate
19% chose CDs
19% chose stocks/mutual funds
8% chose bonds
6% chose other/no opinion
This same survey was done in August of 2011 when the price of gold was near its all time high and 34% of those surveyed chose gold at that time. Because gold still holds the top spot after being much lower 8 months later, I would not be surprised to see the 34% number exceeded when gold is at $1900 again.
The gold market is a relatively small market and as money managers and the public become more engaged in the yellow metal, the price will make new highs along with the miners. In 1997, most people had little idea what Cisco or EMC did, but at the height of the bubble in 2000, most people knew exactly what they did and owned the companies. When everyone owns Newmont, look to get out – but we are no where near that point now.
I don’t expect this dollar bounce to last too long, maybe a week at the most. That should give traders a few more chances at the miners at these lower prices.
With Europe falling back into recession and the US slowing, our prediction of more liquidity programs seems virtually assured.
Have a great trading day!
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
|Symbol||Name||Last Trade||Change||Related Info|
||16.15 (0.77%)||Components, Chart, More|
||7.80 (0.35%)||Components, Chart, More|
||41.64 (1.29%)||Components, Chart, More|
||73.54 (1.10%)||Components, Chart, More|
||0.28 (0.09%)||Components, Chart, More|
|^OSEAX||OSE All Share||477.24
||3.10 (0.65%)||Components, Chart, More|
||2.32 (0.70%)||Components, Chart, More|
||31.02 (0.51%)||Components, Chart, More|
||29.43 (0.51%)||Components, Chart, More|
||0.30 (0.03%)||Chart, More|
||1.21 (0.08%)||Chart, More|
|GD.AT||Athex Composite Share Price Index||682.33
||3.86 (0.56%)||Chart, More|
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad’s Catch of the Day
Kaimu’s Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report