Bill Cara’s Blog for May 29, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

This morning CNBC is blowing smoke for Pershing Square Management’s Bill Ackman. Now that activist hedge fund manager Ackman is the driver of the JC Penny (JCP) traveling road show, I lost my interest. The company is no longer in the Cara 100.

You see I believe that a public company needs to be managed by a board of directors who represent all the shareholders, the risk takers from main street, and not the white shoes from Wall Street.

For the same reason, I have nothing to do with Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD) and its hedge fund manager cum chairman Ed Lampert.

For the goldbugs, I see that the Indian rupee is not helping the bullion price today, although $GOLD and $PLAT are doing ok so far.

blog12_may_29.1.gif


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 1,920.20 6:44AM EDT Up 7.30 (0.38%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,115.80 6:30AM EDT Down 5.40 (0.25%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,057.73 7:00AM EDT Up 14.76 (0.49%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,343.84 6:45AM EDT Up 20.65 (0.33%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 444.18 6:45AM EDT Down 0.51 (0.11%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 312.60 6:59AM EDT Up 3.69 (1.19%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 5,892.63 6:45AM EDT Up 27.44 (0.47%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,350.89 6:45AM EDT Down 5.45 (0.10%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 872.50 7:00AM EDT Up 6.80 (0.79%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,302.70 6:45AM EDT Up 11.22 (0.87%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 515.42 6:44AM EDT Down 3.07 (0.59%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


Deron’s Daily ETF Analysis

Over the past seven trading days, the inversely correlated ProShares UltraShort Dow Jones 30 ETF ($DXD) has been holding support above its 10-day EMA, and volume also expanded as DXD recently broke out above its range. The recent high-volume breakout above key resistance at the $55.50 level, followed by lighter volume consolidation, means that a volume-fueled move above the three-day high of $58.00 could present a near-term buying opportunity in this ETF:

DXD

If it trades above our trigger price for potential buy entry, note that this DXD trade setup is designed to be very short-term in nature (not more than a few days hold time). Due to the daily rebalancing of derivatives that comprise the portfolio of leveraged and “short ETFs,” these instruments usually underperform their underlying index as holding time increases. Therefore, the leveraged and inverse ETFs are best used for relatively quick, momentum-based trades of just a few days or less.

Last Friday, on an uptick in volume, the iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average Index Fund ($IYT) failed to reclaim support of its 20-day EMA and closed its intraday low. Now, a drop below the two-day low of $90.45 could present a short selling opportunity in this ETF. As such, we are now stalking IYT for potential swing trade entry. Our exact entry, stop, and target prices for this trade setup are available for regular subscribers in the “watchlist” section of today’s Wagner Daily stock newsletter.

As a reminder, we recommend calling your broker prior to the open to ensure that shares of IYT are available for shorting. If not, you might consider opening a secondary account with a direct access broker that caters to active traders (TradeStation and InteractiveBrokers are two such firms). These types of firms typically have a much more extensive list of shares available for selling short than your traditional web-based brokers designed for long-term “buy and hold” investing. Furthermore, there is no inverse transportation ETF available as an alternative to shorting IYT. The technical trade setup for $IYT is illustrated on the chart below:

IYT

The broad market has struggled in its attempt to move to higher ground over the past two weeks, and the major indices are now exhibiting “bear flag” patterns on their daily charts. Although we still could see further buying action in the near-term, the longer stocks continue to consolidate near their recent lows, the more likely the next move will be lower. Ideally, we would like to see the main stock market indexes bounce for a few days this week, as this would provide a better reward to risk ratio for new short entries in weak stocks and ETFs, but the stock market could just as easily head lower from the current levels without bouncing.

The commentary above is an excerpt from The Wagner Daily stock report. Subscribers to the full version also receive our exact entry and exit prices for swing trade setups of the best stocks and ETFs, access to our market timing model, and more. You may test drive our stock newsletter with the top stock picks and ETFs risk-free for 30 days. To learn more about our proven trading strategy, please visit and bookmark our trading blog.

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should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell
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Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.


OptionOracle


Jake’s Take


Harp’s Roadmap


Cara on the Metalminers


Cara on the International Markets


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth

Cognoscenti are not Italian shoes

Definition of “Cognoscenti”:

People who are considered to be especially well informed about a particular subject

Is that us? Is that the Cara Community? Is that just the people who post the most often? Is that the people who make the right trades? Is that the people who make the most money?

Cognoscenti refers to a group who are “considered” to be well informed. The critical word being “considered”. What are the Cognoscenti without a group of less informed who declare those to be in the know.

How odd that those who know less about a subject would be the judge and jury for those who will rule over them as experts.

Hero worship in trading is what makes the world go around for many guru’s. Newsletter writers fill the airwaves with grand proclamations and predictions that may or may not turn out to be correct. In exchange for their claims we exalt them, and their opinions form “cases” for particular position in trading:

Jim Sinclair see’s a bottom right now, as does EW and King World News reported that weak hands have left the gold market… central banks are buying…China is selling t-bills… Kyle Bass wonders how much longer can the US can remain the reserve currency… Jim Rogers see’s the Yuan as the dominant currency in 5 years…

The point is not so much that these men in particular are wrong, but that we often tend to argue around trading ideas that are less our own and more our Cognoscenti’s.

Be your own Cognoscenti by exalting your own understanding of markets with the help of those considered knowledgeable.

good luck,

Jeff B
jeffborsato@caratrading.com


  1. Reward to Risk: 1.5 (prefer 3 or above) Target Price: 75.5... [#32567]
    By: holdenll (66 comments) Go to top ↑

    Reward to Risk: 1.5 (prefer 3 or above)
    Target Price: 75.5 ( only 2% above current price)

    I agree that resistance is in the 75/76 range. In the energy field,
    I think TGP would be a much better purchase. (disclosure: I own this)

    Reward To Risk: 3.2
    Target Price: around 27.5
    Potential Return: 41%

    I purchased on 5/13/09 at 17…I currently have a gain around 14%.
    My stop is around 17 to 17.25….

    Current Holdings (real money):
    ABV +28%
    ADBE + 9%
    INFY + 4%
    NOK + 2%
    TGP +14%
    TS even

    Link to fantasy portfolio and performance….
    http://www.tickerspy.com/member.php?pid=60123&mid=

  2. Today is decidedly turning negative....most of the Cara100... [#32632]
    By: holdenll (66 comments) Go to top ↑

    Today is decidedly turning negative….most of the Cara100 are showing long term uptrend but the short term columns turning to o’s….Only about 35 Cara 100′s with long term uptrends and X’s in the column….
    16 are long term bear trends….which leaves 49 in long term bull but short term down….NOTE: not exact, just went thru the P&F charts on the Cara 100.
    Placing hard stop on NOK to sell if goes below 14.74….
    ABV +25% hard stop at 63.99
    ADBE + 4% hard stop at 28.24
    INFY even hard stop at 34.99
    NOK – 2% hard stop at 14.74
    TGP +10% will sell before gets back to 17

  3. Purchased TTM at 9.83 Reward to Risk is 3.1 and target is... [#32823]
    By: holdenll (66 comments) Go to top ↑

    Purchased TTM at 9.83
    Reward to Risk is 3.1 and target is 12.75 (30% potential gain)
    I am placing a very tight stop on this at 9.49….
    The regular point and figure chart stop would be 6.5 and I dont have the stomach for that.
    The 15 minute intraday has switched to positive which is why I bought here.
    MACD and 8/20 EMA is what I look at. (looked good this morning…not so good now)

    UPDATE: just got stopped out of NOK at 14.74….loss of 4%
    I come back from lunch and was stopped out of:
    ABV for a 23% gain
    ADBE for a 1.7% gain
    INFY for a 1.4% loss

    TTM traded at 9.50 and my stop is at 9.49….
    Real Money Portfolio
    TGP +9.8%
    TTM -2.7%

    I think the market is telling us something here…look out longs…

  4. Cool, I'm glad I found this. Great... [#32978]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Cool, I’m glad I found this. Great piece

  5. Loss of 6% in 1 day...yikes.....Opened at 9.19. As I type... [#33028]
    By: holdenll (66 comments) Go to top ↑

    Loss of 6% in 1 day…yikes…..Opened at 9.19. As I type it is 8.86
    TGP is only stock I have left….
    I mentioned on Bill’s comments that the only short of the Cara 100 that I thought had good reward to risk and return potential was BMY. That may change if more turn Long term negative on Point/Figure charts.

  6. 9:00 AM ET S&P; Case-Shiller HPI 10:00 AM ET... [#109534]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 9:00 AM ET S&P; Case-Shiller HPI
    • 10:00 AM ET Consumer Confidence
    • 10:00 AM ET State Street Investor Confidence Index
    • 10:30 AM ET Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
    • 11:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction
    • 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction
  7. 4 in Accumulation Zone 16 in Buy alert 1 in... [#109535]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 4 in Accumulation Zone
    • 16 in Buy alert
    • 1 in Distribution Zone

    Accumulation Zone (20%): Monthly 13, Weekly 28, Daily 21
    Distribution Zone (4%): Monthly 7, Weekly 2, Daily 3

  8. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Japan for April Actual: 4.6%Cons.:... [#109536]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Japan for April
    Actual: 4.6%Cons.: 4.5%Previous: 4.5%

    OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING (YOY) Japan for April
    Actual: 2.6%Cons.: 2.4%Previous: 3.4%

    RETAIL TRADE (YOY) Japan for April
    Actual: 5.8%Cons.: 6.3%Previous: 10.3%

    [note graphical format of retail trade as attached. Post-Tsunami retail pop may be topping out - Les]

    HIA NEW HOME SALES (MOM) Australia for April
    Actual: 6.9%Cons.: Previous: -9.4%

    http://economics.hia.com.au/archive.aspx

    UBS CONSUMPTION INDICATOR Switzerland for April
    Actual: 1.41Cons.: Previous: 1.20

    CBI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADES SURVEY – REALIZED (MOM) UK for May
    Actual: 21%Cons.: -7%Previous: -6%

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/press-releases/

    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY)Germany for May prelim
    Actual: 1.9%Cons.: 2.0%Previous: 2.1%

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  9. Good morning. 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index... [#109537]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index (unchanged)
    10:00 Consumer Confidence

    ——

    BRCM – was added to the Conviction Buy List at Nomura. Valuation is attractive at 13 times CY13E EPS.

    BRCM – Broadcom upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at CLSA based on valuation and said the company should be able to keep Apple (AAPL) and Samsung business for at least the next 12 months. Price target is $38.

    DIS – price target was raised at Morgan Stanley. Shares are now seen reaching $51. Company is realizing higher margins at ABC, and the Avengers movie has performed well. Overweight rating.

    INTC – estimates were lowered at Sterne Agee through 2013. Company is leveraged to slower macro and Windows 8 growth, Sterne Agee said. Neutral rating and $26 price target.

    XOM – Exxon Mobil downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman following the sell-off in energy shares. The firm now expects higher-beta names to outperform.

    ——

    “The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not.” ~ Thomas Jefferson

  10. For those of you who are new to my daily technical ETF... [#109538]
    By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

    For those of you who are new to my daily technical ETF commentary column here, and would like to learn my swing trading strategy, you may find educational value in reviewing our short (about 2 minutes) daily stock videos on our blog. Especially if you are new to technical analysis or swing trading, a lot will be learned by simply following the annotations in our free daily “stock pick” videos at: http://www.morpheustrading.com/mtg-blog

    If anyone has any questions at all, please feel free to post a comment here or send a private message. I am happy to help you learn the strategy.

    Cheers,

    Deron

  11. closed out my put. Tim Cook will be speaking. Rumor of... [#109539]
    By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

    closed out my put. Tim Cook will be speaking. Rumor of Apple TV swirling. Stock’s up so far today.

  12. New kind of a trade, I'll call it EECK... [#109540]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    New kind of a trade, I’ll call it EECK Trade:

    http://goo.gl/dNzsV

  13. The Buck spooked... [#109541]
    By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

    The Buck spooked me

  14. Presumably this little news gem sent the euro plummeting to... [#109542]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

    Presumably this little news gem sent the euro plummeting to a new cycle low today, taking gold & silver down with it.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/29/spain-ec

    MADRID, May 29 (Reuters) – Spain, battling a debt crisis that is shaking its government, banks and companies, will soon issue new bonds to fund ailing lenders and indebted regions despite borrowing costs nearing the 7 percent level that drove other states to seek a bailout.

    The move will dent the country’s strong liquidity position and further worsen public finances under scrutiny from investors and European officials who fear the euro zone’s fourth economy may go the same way as Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

  15. I guess the "tell" today was TLT. Never really... [#109543]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    I guess the “tell” today was TLT. Never really buckled.

  16. Took when it broke up from the flag filled... [#109544]
    By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

    Took when it broke up from the flag filled 21.17

    • Done for the day flat. Stopped-out 20.70 Time to take a few... [#109556]
      By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

      Done for the day flat. Stopped-out 20.70 Time to take a few days off let my cash settle, see if this market can break through resistance. I don’t like the idea of trading into the Friday employment #’s.

      • TD - have ceased trading but looked in on yesterday's... [#109577]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        TD – have ceased trading but looked in on yesterday’s opening and was monitoring the same setup as yourself, albeit directly through IWM. Here’s how I approached it.

        I look at the market through a 5 min. chart. Looking up a time frame at the 15 min chart as the market opens. If the index is outside the bollinger bands, I want to short it. See attached 15 min. chart.

        I look at the 5 min chart and I know I want to short it straight after the opening bell. The conditions are correct. So I look down to the 1 min chart. A .30 breakdown starts the day.

        The 1 minute chart illustrates support kicking in at .10, as the .30 trigger is broken. A second high volume plunge to .10 confirms support. Grind up begins. I implement a trendline and follow it up, all the while knowing that while the 15 min. candle remains outside the bollinger bands, this puppy is going to reverse at some point.

        The market slows down and a wonderful thing happens. MACD and stochastics in the 15,5,1 min. time frame begins to align. 15 and 5 show stochastics crossover, 5 min MACD shows bearish divergences with the 1 min providing a bearish crossover and entry signal. Price triggers the entry.

        Price is trapped between .94 and .85 as it tops out. There’s the setup. Look at your TZA chart and you’ll see a mirror setup – .40 is the bottom with a .50 break if I remember correctly.

        I swing traded according to Farley in 2011, quite profitably, until I destroyed all my profits buying the September plunge in silver. In trading that setup you see in IWM, I just shrank Farley down to intraday settings.

        ————————————

        Vad, sorry I haven’t spoken recently but this is the way I see the market. I just made the decision last night not to continue funding the account. I risk facing my own liquidity squeeze this summer if I attempt to fund again now.

        And in all fairness to Vad when I commented that I can’t trade his system, it is not his system I am trading. I have great difficulty reading pure price/volume setups, without the aid of trend and oscillator indicators, as illustrated here.

        But what I needed from Vad was understanding and discipline (rules!) in order to clarify a) what defines a setup, b) what triggers the setup and c) when do I take profits. This discipline remains a work in progress.

        But the greatest difficulty I feel I have is one of time management. The only reason I could follow that market development yesterday was because my knee is playing up again and I wasn’t at Aikido. Much pressure have I placed on myself to “score the trade” in a small window of time before heading off to Aikido most nights of the week. And it continues to ruin my account.

        I feel like Jesse Livermore, already wanting to find another roll so I can go back to Wall St. and trade again, but a funny thing happens when I cease trading. I find time for my kids and the Mrs, as they are all coming home at the same time or shortly after the markets open here at 3:30pm. Along with Aikido and dinner (I’m a cook), I find myself unrealistically racing between the trading screen, the kitchen, racing out the door or taking time to listen to the family a moment. Well I’ve decided what I’m doing now.

        And like Livermore, I await price confirmation from silver and gold that we remain in a metals bull market. This is something that will play out over a number of years yet – it’s a marathon as Bill has said many times. But in this time frame it doesn’t require me to sit in front of the screen on a daily basis.

        I may return to multi-session swing trading. I am already assessing what went right and wrong during my trading in 2011 in order to ascertain lessons that can be learnt. And I have other projects outside the market that I may wish to pursue. Starting to appreciate a green thumb life like Kaimu. Want to gain some core knowledge and understand whether I can commercialise it in the future. Some change coming to Europe – wanna position myself profitably for it.

        • Les I must say I always enjoy reading your early morning... [#109580]
          By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

          Les I must say I always enjoy reading your early morning posts. I’m up at the crack of dawn, boats hooked to the truck, off to the lake with my son his friend and are dog. No more trading this week or possible this summer, all my accounts are at a lifetime high. Since first finding Bill’s blog three plus years ago, I’m up over 145%. I was in mutual founds before that working, 7 days a week all over the US and Canada. Looking back I can’t say it’s because I’m a good trader I’m not, all the chart reading and company reports haven’t made me a nickle. What I am is a good gambler, I use a simple money management system and never drink the house Kool-Aid. I look forward to the day when they close this casino they call a market and I can become an investor again. I’ve learned a lot here over the years and think I mite be good at it.
          Good luck, because that’s all there is to it right now.

  17. Because we had several posters today, Geoff was unable to... [#109545]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Because we had several posters today, Geoff was unable to get the charts published properly for his report, so I gather the report was not uploaded. Korvus apparently has an interim solution that may work until we get the whole website re-built over the next two months.

  18. ... on this guy: (GR) Austria Fin Min Fekter: Not possible... [#109546]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    … on this guy:

    (GR) Austria Fin Min Fekter: Not possible to say if or when Greece will repay its debt

    I realize you tried to make a joke. Mr. Fekter… but just in case you didn’t: it’s very possible to say; no if; no when… simple answer is “never.”

    • right. An interesting history of the Drachma does not... [#109548]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      right. An interesting history of the Drachma does not suggest that this time it will be different:

      Modern Greek monetary history is one of default, inflation and destruction of wealth when the wealth preservation was entrusted to the government. Centuries of history support this statement.

      http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/david-k

  19. Can someone help me out with this logic? 1. Historically... [#109547]
    By: kevin07 (63 comments) Go to top ↑

    Can someone help me out with this logic?

    1. Historically, the Euro sinks and the dollar strengthens and gold and gold stocks sink.

    2. If Greece, Spain, etc. continue to have problems, the Euro will sink further and 1. should follow.

    Many believe 2. yet are predicting gold to go to $2,000 in the near future. What would be the logic for that? Or is it those who predict $2,000 believe in QE3 and that will trump the EU problems?

    Also, I note that many here comment on “gold”, but do they mean gold and gold stock together or will any of the above cause one to go up and the other to go down?

    I do try to keep my analyses simple, but maybe that is just not possible in this case.

    Thanks.

    • Hi Kevin, my $.02 is that Uncle Buck is going to be... [#109549]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Kevin, my $.02 is that Uncle Buck is going to be favoured in 2012 as capital flees Europe. If ECB plans for backstopping Euro sovereign issues continue to be too little, too late – what with the German paymaster balking at the prospect – then I’d be looking for a massive global move in liquidity.

      There’s no reason that gold and the buck cannot go up together, but that is a relative rarity or so I’ve noticed over the last few years. Capital fleeing Europe could certainly cram itself into the relatively small previous metals sector, causing significant price increases all the while the dollar is bought up too. We shall have to wait and see the fireworks.

      Armstrong has modeled a low in 2012 for gold and silver after this 13 year bull run, from which it will base and make its last run, as the bond vigilante’s turn their eyes on Japan, the UK and ultimately the US. One can guess the Fed’s response to a bond buyers strike, especially when the Fed is already reportedly buying 60% of treasury paper today.

      Then we should see some “Extraordinary Popular Delusions” take hold of the population with which we can hopefully sell into, and the G-20 pull out plan B for a new currency regime to implement. Or alternatively their national plans for war, which they may also implement. In that case keep your gold on you :)

      • Kevin and Les - Nice summation, Les. I'd add that if... [#109552]
        By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

        Kevin and Les -

        Nice summation, Les. I’d add that if Greece is jettisoned from the euro, that could very well strengthen the euro and the USD run would reverse on a dime, so to speak. That’s bullish for gold bullion IF you exchange goods in USDs and bearish IF you exchange goods in euros ;)

        Note that the G20 meeting is coming up in June and the Yuan has jumped ahead of this annual gathering of leaders for the past two years. Chinese commrades want to keep any talk of their pegs to western fiat currencies off the table. Technical chart on CYB is looking good for an entry and as an alternative to below-inflation rates of return on money markets.

        Got CYB as a proxy for cash this month?

        • Kevin, Les, Dr. and others comments much appreciated and... [#109568]
          By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

          Kevin, Les, Dr. and others comments much appreciated and thought provoking which I believe is a great value of the site.
          I am attaching a chart of $USD and beneath it is a correlation (50 day) with $GOLD. The 50 day time frame avoids comparisons from $USD levels many years ago with $GOLD then and the same $USD level now with a dramatically higher gold price. In effect, it’s an ongoing 50 day computation. One can quickly see that both rather large positive and negative correlation numbers are quite possible. Obviously more fiddling can be done via Stockcharts or the like.

    • I don't think it's that gold goes down as much as the... [#109551]
      By: radix023 (38 comments) Go to top ↑

      I don’t think it’s that gold goes down as much as the dollar goes up and thus gold looks a bit cheaper. If the Euro looks doomed and that Europe is going to have a period of massive instability, then the hot money rush to safety (risk off) may be massive enough to lift both dollar and gold. Recall that during a couple of points in this mess, yields on government debt have gone negative (basically paying a premium to guarantee return of principal).

      Quite frankly, I think we’re all on the lookout to determine what the unintended consequences of the unprecedented central bank balance sheet expansions will be. Historically it’s hyperinflation, civil unrest and war.

      I’d stay the heck out of paper gold, just look at what happened to the people at MF Global (Gerald Celente ie).

  20. Kevin, Unfortunately its just not that simple. Here's two... [#109550]
    By: schnauser (31 comments) Go to top ↑

    Kevin,

    Unfortunately its just not that simple. Here’s two things from Mish that should clarify it for you: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02

    also, from a good interview at the “daily bell”:

    “…Note that gold does not necessarily respond to movements in the US dollar. For example, the US dollar index is near 80. The dollar index was at 80 in late 2004 and gold was just over $400. If gold is not responding to moves in the dollar then what is it responding to? I suggest gold has responded to central bank efforts to revive credit. It has also responded well to sovereign credit stress. The Fed wants home prices to rise. The Fed also wants another credit lending spree. Neither happened. Clearly, the Fed can provide liquidity but it cannot determine where (if anywhere) liquidity goes. Since more liquidity efforts are surely on the way, and gold is the likely beneficiary, I highly doubt that gold has peaked. Eventually there will be a huge currency crisis and gold will soar…”

    Ray Dalio has recently said that gold could continue to be under pressure as European institutional investors must raise cash during the continuing crisis.

    Bob Hoye is another (Canadian) analyst who doesn’t have a problem with gold and USD rising simultaneously.

    The correlations can change!

    Its a long term bull market, so dollar cost average and get some sleep.

  21. Hi All - Might be a good time for entry on this one. Nice... [#109553]
    By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi All – Might be a good time for entry on this one. Nice Mineral Resource numbers today with 3.1 milliion oz/Au in measured and indictated with another 1.4 million in infered status. Look for end of the day action by the PMI minders to recover earlier loses. Happy Trading

    • down 8.4% today. Not for me, thanks till it makes a turn up... [#109558]
      By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

      down 8.4% today. Not for me, thanks till it makes a turn up ….

      • Hi Jock - Wise advice, but with the 95 million market cap... [#109559]
        By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

        Hi Jock – Wise advice, but with the 95 million market cap backed by the following it may be due for a move I expect:

        Measured Resources: 15.57Mt at 2.47g/t for 1.23 million ounces
        Indicated Resources: 29.21Mt at 2.00g/t for 1.88 million ounces
        Inferred Resources: 21.91Mt at 1.99g/t for 1.40 million ounces

        Which ones are you looking at these days in the sector? Happy Trading

    • luggie - I have a position in PMI from way back. Sold 1/5... [#109564]
      By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

      luggie – I have a position in PMI from way back. Sold 1/5 at 1.25, and am holding the rest. Not adding right now.

      Mostly licking my wounds among juniors. Selectively nibbling.

      My current fave: SND.V Sandstorm Metals and Energy, the ONLY streaming company working base metals, natgas, coal, etc.

      More mining finance than producer or explorer. The two key guys were early employees of Silver Wheaton.

    • ALOHA!! Just pointing out not much conviction volume wise... [#109571]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      Just pointing out not much conviction volume wise on any of the juniors lately. Naturally more illiquid shares suffer more from minimal trade volume, but then that works in reverse also. The PMV move today came with less than half average volume.

      Like Jock, I still own PMV, but have sold off some @$1.20 – $1.30 to invest outside the markets in the studio. Not buying back into the junior market yet.

      But … I am looking at ASX gold juniors more. I like how KRM, Kingsrose Mining, one of my holdings and one of the recommends I did at CTA Conference 2011 in Whistler, now pays a dividend. Another top notch managed Aussie small gold producer thanks in part to Chris Start’s efforts. Good on ya mate!!

      How many TSX listed 80,000 au oz per annum producers pay dividends? How many TSX listed juniors have been “profitable since inception”? I like the value I have found on the ASX more than what I see on the TSX, which was my theme back at the CTA Conference 2009 in Nassau.

  22. (EU) According to Pew Research polls conducted across 8 EU... [#109554]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    (EU) According to Pew Research polls conducted across 8 EU nations, the public is increasingly doubtful about EU membership and closer integration – FT (update)
    - About 8K people said to have been polled in France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Greece, Poland, UK, and Czech Republic in Mar-Apr period.
    - Only 34% said the single currency is a positive; Most respondents in France and Italy believe EUR has been a negative for their country.

  23. Chart on Eldorado Gold (EGO) flashed a bullish gravestone... [#109555]
    By: goldbug58 (370 comments) Go to top ↑

    Chart on Eldorado Gold (EGO) flashed a bullish gravestone doji on 15-16 May that seems to have been confirmed by the sessions following; that was a move from 10.20 to 11.68 (14.5%) over the past eight sessions.

    Anyone else see this chart as continued bullish for EGO?

  24. Ooogling for "deutsche bank near Madrid" and the same for... [#109557]
    By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

    Ooogling for “deutsche bank near Madrid” and the same for Lisbon, you find there are 10 Deutsche Bank branches in Madrid and 8 in Lisbon.

    No matter how modest your euro savings, wouldn’t you be walking them from a local bank to Deutsche Bank?

    Leave them where they are, and if there’s a euro exit, old currency and devaluation ,you likely lose 2/3 of your money.

    Get them into Deutsche Bank, and you could MAKE money, if the Deutsch Mark ends up returning.

    By the time the politicians act, won’t it likely be “game over”?

  25. Can someone explain why its halted and what it means for it... [#109560]
    By: SyncMaster152T (166 comments) Go to top ↑

    Can someone explain why its halted and what it means for it when it opens

    • ... [#109561]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      Faceplant?

      • seems they hired jpm and rbc to review their options and... [#109562]
        By: SyncMaster152T (166 comments) Go to top ↑

        seems they hired jpm and rbc to review their options and they are seeing a loss in the next quarterly results. This bb 10 better be extraordinary or rim will become a penny stock!

    • NASDAQ halts when things plunge. I believe this is the... [#109563]
      By: radix023 (38 comments) Go to top ↑

      NASDAQ halts when things plunge. I believe this is the correct page: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=Circuit

      RIMM was down about 10% so I think it triggered the threshold. The pause was not terribly long, I believe it’s available for trade on the after-hours market.

      FB halt tomorrow? ;)

      • Down 7 points in after market. Seems ten dollars is a... [#109565]
        By: SyncMaster152T (166 comments) Go to top ↑

        Down 7 points in after market. Seems ten dollars is a strong psychological level.

      • "NASDAQ halts when things plunge. " Not in this case, it... [#109569]
        By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

        “NASDAQ halts when things plunge. “

        Not in this case, it was halted for news dissemination. RIMM posted business update at 16:15, opened for trading at 16:35, touched $9.50, bounced to $10.50…

        Research in Motion Ltd Provides Business Update; sees operating loss in Q1 (vs $0.41e); confirms significant spending and headcount reductions.

        - CEO: In terms of challenges, as I mentioned on the March financial results conference call, RIM is going through a significant transformation as we move towards the BlackBerry 10 launch, and our financial performance will continue to be challenging for the next few quarters. The on-going competitive environment is impacting our business in the form of lower volumes and highly competitive pricing dynamics in the marketplace, and we expect our Q1 results to reflect this, and likely result in an operating loss for the quarter.(***NOTE: $0.41e) … On the positive side, we expect to further increase our cash position in Q1 from the approximately $2.1 billion we had at the end of fiscal 2012.

        - We are making steady progress with the innovation of our next-generation BlackBerry 10 mobile computing platform, which is still on track to launch in the latter part of calendar 2012.
        - Our global subscriber base continued to grow this quarter to approximately 78 million, driven primarily by growth in international markets, which is partially offset by high churn in the United States, and our BBM user base has grown to approximately 59 million users globally.
        - Our strong brand internationally was recently enhanced with the successful launch of two new BlackBerry 7 phones in India and Latin America. – To further enhance our commitment to successfully completing our transformation, after the release of our year-end financial results, we engaged J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and RBC Capital Markets to assist the Company and our Board of Directors in reviewing RIM’s business and financial performance. These advisors have been tasked to help us with the strategic review we referenced on our year-end financial results conference call and to evaluate the relative merits and feasibility of various financial strategies, including opportunities to leverage the BlackBerry platform through partnerships, licensing opportunities and strategic business model alternatives.

        – CORE (cost optimization and resource efficiency) program we told you about previously is focused on delivering key operational savings through various initiatives. The financial objectives for the CORE program are targeted to drive $1 billion in savings by the end of fiscal 2013, based on our Q4 run rate. We are targeting better efficiency and use of resources in our sales and marketing initiatives to effectively leverage marketing windows and evaluate our country portfolio to determine where it makes sense for us to prioritize our efforts. We will also continue to review RIM’s organizational structure and clearly define accountabilities for all key businesses and business processes with a goal of eliminating fragmentation, duplication and inefficiencies. While there will be significant spending reductions and headcount reductions in some areas throughout the remainder of the fiscal year, we will continue to spend and hire in key areas such as those associated with the launch of BlackBerry 10, and those tied to the growth of our application developer community

        • I stand corrected. I saw the 10% threshold and the closing... [#109570]
          By: radix023 (38 comments) Go to top ↑

          I stand corrected. I saw the 10% threshold and the closing price and made an invalid assumption.

  26. ... [#109566]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/e

    While reviewing some data at S&P Ratings service, I came across this article, and thought it might spur some discussion here.

    • Bill , The author writes about " much will depend on the... [#109574]
      By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill , The author writes about ” much will depend on the continued ability of banking system regulators to pilot a path through the minefield that lies ahead . ” In my opinion the banks and the regulators laid this minefield , they should know where the mines are and the strength of each . Colossal incompetence . Our politicians are also a combination of incompetent and corrupt . As offbeat as it might sound the Supreme Court might have the spine to save us . The banks that are too big too fail and the Federal Reserve are monopolies . They could be broken up by the Supreme Court as was Standard oil in 1911 .

  27. ' amrn ' was a thing of beauty today. Certainly took the... [#109572]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    ‘ amrn ‘ was a thing of beauty today. Certainly took the opportunity to add more in low $ 11′s this am. The second ( of the main two ) patents ( on ‘ purity ‘ ) was granted this weekend.

  28. Looks like the Swiss 3-month note is now in negative yield... [#109573]
    By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

    Looks like the Swiss 3-month note is now in negative yield, meaning people are paying them to hold deposits.
    http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/ne
    TBT did a U-turn when the dollar popped today.

    Gold has already broken major support levels, I’m watching 1520 kind of my last line in the sand….
    If the Fed, and other CBs are going to do something to prevent a surge in the dollar, and breakdown in Gold, they’ll have to do it soon. I’m starting to think we are fighting a losing battle against deflation. Ben’s timing always seems to be a little slow, if he waits till the last minute things cold get ugly. Cash feels like the right move for me.

  29. Some of you may find this interesting. Amory Lovins: A... [#109575]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Some of you may find this interesting.
    Amory Lovins: A 40-year plan for energy http://on.ted.com/CPJk

    Earl

    • Earl, TERRIFIC presentation. The first thing that strikes... [#109585]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

      Earl,

      TERRIFIC presentation.

      The first thing that strikes me is that here is a guy actually looking beyond his lifetime. What I have watched happen around me is CEOs and politicians looking no further than their own immediate financial and career gains.

      A couple years ago I read a German scientist’s claim that the Middle East’s deserts could energize all of Europe and the Southwestern desert in the US could handle all of our needs. I expect that the Gobi desert could handle Asia.

      He, realistically I believe, noted that the only drawback was political. Businesses in the old system influence those in government to suit their current (pun intended) wishes.

      Grym

      • what about the costs of storage and transmission of the... [#109603]
        By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

        what about the costs of storage and transmission of the energy? Aren’t these the reason that Boone Pickens stopped “tilting at windmills”?

  30. Just for fun I looked up Bankia's balance sheet. The most... [#109576]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

    Just for fun I looked up Bankia’s balance sheet. The most recent quarter I could find was March 2011. At that time, they had 190 billion euros in loans outstanding (138B in mortgages, 51B in MBS), against 150 billion euros in depositor money (15B in senior debt) and another 58B in debt securities.

    Only about 60B in deposits are insured (a government liability). That’s still a pretty big number.

    NAMA, the Irish “bad bank” had all in losses for their mortgage portfolio somewhere around 40%, so call the total cost perhaps 76B euros if we assume the losses in Spain will rival that of Ireland. Compare that with the 23B number we see for the current “bailout cost.” Note that once again, senior debtholders do not appear to be at risk for loss for their investment, but the downpayment/cost to the taxpayer will be *minimum* 23B.

    Bankia has 10% of Spain’s deposits. Rough back of the envelope – there are perhaps 750B in losses yet to be taken in the Spanish banking system assuming Spain = Ireland in terms of its property bubble. Spanish sovereign debt is 1T.

    http://www.bankia.com/Ficheros/CMA/ficheros/Cuentas_defin...

  31. ... [#109578]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  32. Spain 10 year bond yields broke to a new high today - now... [#109579]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

    Spain 10 year bond yields broke to a new high today – now trading at 6.63%. This sort of thing might eventually be good news for gold, but for now I think traders are looking at this as deflationary. What happens if and when Spanish yields trade north of 6.75% – last November’s high?