Bill Cara’s Blog for May 25, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

On this Friday before a holiday weekend, traders will be making decisions with the backdrop of the European situation which could have a major effect on the markets. They will not have access to their accounts for 3 days and will act accordingly. A great trader that I knew years ago used to say; “nothing good ever happens on Fridays”. What he meant was that placing large trades on the day before a weekend is inherently riskier, so it is better to wait until Monday to do so. In the current environment, many risk averse traders will be placing hedges that they will take off on Tuesday of next week. Better safe than sorry.

This morning, equity futures are slightly lower, metals slightly higher and the energy complex is mixed. I expect a lower volume day as some traders are taking a 4 day weekend but it could be volatile.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 1,933.90 6:45AM EDT Up 15.10 (0.79%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,118.20 4:43AM EDT Up 21.10 (1.01%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,026.61 6:59AM EDT Down 11.64 (0.38%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,350.15 6:45AM EDT Up 34.26 (0.54%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 444.26 6:44AM EDT Up 0.30 (0.07%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 307.77 6:59AM EDT Down 1.72 (0.56%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 5,870.52 6:44AM EDT Up 18.08 (0.31%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,336.36 6:45AM EDT Down 13.69 (0.26%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 877.50 6:59AM EDT Down 1.70 (0.19%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,284.64 6:45AM EDT Up 4.81 (0.38%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 499.53 6:44AM EDT Down 2.99 (0.59%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


Deron’s Daily ETF Analysis

Stocks ended the session mixed but reversed to close near session highs, for the second day in a row. The Nasdaq showed relative weakness, as it was the only one of the major indices to close lower. The tech-rich index fell 0.4% on the day. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.1% gain, while the small cap Russell 2000 added 0.2%. Both the S&P MidCap 400 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 0.3%.

Market internals were also mixed on Thursday. Volume dropped on the Nasdaq by 9.8% and on the NYSE by 11.3%. However, advancing volume edged out declining volume on the NYSE by a factor of 1.3 to 1, while declining volume held the upper hand on the Nasdaq by the same factor of 1.3 to 1. It was not a session indicative of institutional trading activity.

Over the past five sessions, the Direxion Semiconductor 3x Bear ETF ($SOXS), which we recently traded for a 12% gain on a 3-day hold, has held support above its 10-day MA while trading in a tight, 4-point range. Now, a volume-driven move above the five-day high of $50.00 could present a buying opportunity in this inversely correlated “short ETF.” However, we would ideally prefer to see an “undercut” of the five-day low prior to buying $SOXS. Such “undercuts” serve to shake the “weak hands” out of the trade, while at the same time sweeping poorly placed stops. This ultimately increases the likelihood of a profitable trade.

SPY

Overall, yesterday’s market action was a tug of war between bulls and bears. Market bulls eventually gained the upper hand by day’s end. If the broad market can rally above the three-day high, the major indices would likely be headed for resistancee of their respective 20-day exponential moving averages. As mentoned several times in recent days, such a bounce could provide low-risk swing trading short setups with a positive reward/risk ratio. Yet, the market has been significantly struggling to gain its footing in an attempt to move higher. We don’t intend on taking new positions until we get the next definitive signal from the market. Nevertheless, we will be monitoring $SOXS for potential re-entry as a swing trade, and will notify subscribers of The Wagner Daily if we buy $SOXS in our model trading portfolio.

NOTE: Just a reminder that the U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday, May 28 for Memorial Day holiday. As such, The Wagner Daily will not be published that day. Regular publication will resume the following day. Enjoy the long weekend.

The commentary above is an excerpt from The Wagner Daily stock report. Subscribers to the full version also receive our exact entry and exit prices for all swing trade setups, an additional section dedicated to our top stock picks, access to our Live Trading Room, and more. You may test our swing trading stock newsletter with the best stock picks and ETFs risk-free for 30 days. To learn more about our proven trading strategy, please visit and bookmark our trading blog.

OptionOracle


Jake’s Take


Cara on the Metalminers


Cara on the International Markets


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. 9:55 AM ET Consumer... [#109431]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 9:55 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
  2. 6 in Accumulation Zone 15 in Buy alert 1 in Sell... [#109432]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 6 in Accumulation Zone
    • 15 in Buy alert
    • 1 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone (26%): Monthly 12, Weekly 40, Daily 26
    Distribution Zone (3%): Monthly 7, Weekly 2, Daily 2

  3. ...Little noticed is that on Tuesday Team Obama took its... [#109433]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    …Little noticed is that on Tuesday Team Obama took its first formal steps toward putting taxpayers behind Wall Street derivatives trading — not behind banks that might make mistakes in derivatives markets, but behind the trading itself.

    Specifically, the law authorizes the Federal Reserve to provide “discount and borrowing privileges” to clearinghouses in emergencies. Traditionally the ability to borrow from the Fed’s discount window was reserved for banks, but the new law made clear that a clearinghouse receiving assistance was not required to “be or become a bank or bank holding company.” To get help, they only needed to be deemed “systemically important” by the new Financial Stability Oversight Council chaired by the Treasury Secretary.

    We’re told that the clearinghouses of Chicago’s CME Group and Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange were voted systemic this week, and rumor has it that the council may even designate London-based LCH.Clearnet as critical to the U.S. financial system.

    ht Jesse’s

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527023048

    got gold, or US dollars?

    I see the SEC released its findings on Lehman Bros. almost 4 years after the event, with no further likely action to be taken.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-24/sec-staff

    Let the fraud continue.

  4. ... [#109434]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑
  5. shows a handfull of central banks buying gold in April... [#109435]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    shows a handfull of central banks buying gold in April… Fleck last night.

  6. ... [#109437]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://baselinescenario.com/2012/05/24/jamie-dimon

    Simon Johnson certainly thinks so.

    http://baselinescenario.com/2012/05/21/jamie-dimon

    Do you agree? If so, sign the petition.

    http://www.change.org/petitions/jamie-dimon-must-r

    Btw, Simon Johnson does an excellent job of discussing ‘conflict of interest’ in Washington and Wall Street, which has been my biggest concern since writing this blog starting in April 2004. Conflict of interest is what sinks every government, every company, every organization, every family and every person who goes down that road.

    Our society seems to have adopted the public-private partnership as culturally acceptable. Unfortunately, that’s simply another example of conflict of interest.

    • "Conflict of interest" basically = collusion. Of course... [#109439]
      By: goldbug58 (370 comments) Go to top ↑

      “Conflict of interest” basically = collusion.

      Of course they should dump him, but its kind of like whacking terrorists or crack dealers, you take one down, another head pops up somewhere to take its place.

      • Simon Johnson, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are... [#109443]
        By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

        Simon Johnson, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are three people whose opinions I respect. Frankly, I think Sanders has the right idea that bankers (at least while actively employed) should not be on the board.

        More to the point, Congress, charged with the oversight of the banking system, has done a terrible job and recently we saw how they have been guilty of conflicts of interest all along.

        I see nothing likely which can restore confidence that a legitimate system will be forthcoming any time soon. Certainly not confidence.

        Grym

      • Simon Johnson, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are... [#109444]
        By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

        Simon Johnson, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are three people whose opinions I respect. Frankly, I think Sanders has the right idea that bankers (at least while actively employed nor holding bank shares) should not be on the board.

        More to the point, Congress, charged with the oversight of the banking system, has done a terrible job and recently we saw how they have been guilty of conflicts of interest all along.

        I see nothing likely which can restore confidence that a legitimate system will be forthcoming any time soon. Certainly not my confidence.

        Grym

        • Clearly, Jamie Dimon is smarter than the rest of us, as he... [#109445]
          By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

          Clearly, Jamie Dimon is smarter than the rest of us, as he can fall into dreck and come out smelling like a rose.

          In fact, he should probably be required to throw in all of his assets into ANY US government venture, not for accountability purposes or credibility but to ASSURE the success of the project.

          I’m sure that he is not only a Master of the Universe, but a great guy. Why should we listen to these muckrakers, who clearly, unlike Mr. Dimon are only in it for personal aggrandizement.

          Pass the ‘shrooms, baby.

  7. Good morning. 09:55 Michigan Sentiment ... [#109438]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    09:55 Michigan Sentiment – Final

    ——

    There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

    ——

    “Laws are like sausages. You sleep far better the less you know about how they are made.” ~ Otto Von Bismark

  8. I tried to post a PDF yesterday to support MoKat's... [#109440]
    By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

    I tried to post a PDF yesterday to support MoKat’s reference to the off balance sheet swap magnitude of J.P. Morgan; but the PDF wouldn’t load.

    (I’m really sorry that I didn’t get it right yesterday.)

    At this link below, one would have to Create the Report using the first button and then click to obtain the PDF.

    Beginning on page 11 of the PDF the Off Sheet Balance “stuff” is shown for J.P. Morgan.

    http://www.ffiec.gov/nicpubweb/nicweb/InstitutionP

  9. PBR - Petrobras downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Tudor... [#109441]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    PBR – Petrobras downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Tudor Pickering.

  10. ... [#109442]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑
  11. ... [#109446]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  12. I mentioned this stock a while back. I am curious if you... [#109447]
    By: prodisc (73 comments) Go to top ↑

    I mentioned this stock a while back. I am curious if you have any knowledge or thoughts on this company. Positive clinical trials,insider buying, and orderly price movement. Thanks

    • Hi pro... whats not to like !! If I remember, you mentioned... [#109457]
      By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi pro… whats not to like !! If I remember, you mentioned it around $ 17 ish… Great call, to say the least ! Kinda long in the tooth here, but it would make a great buy-out candidate ( J & J.. ?? )… Have always said ‘ buying ‘ is the ‘ easy ‘ part. If the upcoming updates are good, as most suspect, this could see a $ 50.00 ish ( or more ) offer. Wish I could be of more help, but you have a winner here… best to you.

  13. ... [#109448]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
    • I checked out HR4646 on Snopes.com. Their fact check... [#109452]
      By: trevor (31 comments) Go to top ↑

      I checked out HR4646 on Snopes.com. Their fact check reveals interesting details on this proposed bill and its chances of passage (zilch):

      http://tinyurl.com/2eyafoc

    • Bill, I found the following re H.R. 4646 To establish a... [#109477]
      By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill,

      I found the following re H.R. 4646

      To establish a fee on transactions which would eliminate the national debt and replace the income tax on individuals.

      Introduced: Feb 23, 2010
      Sponsor: Rep. Chaka Fattah [D-PA2]
      Status: Died (Referred to Committee)
      See Instead: This bill was re-introduced as H.R. 1125 on Mar 16, 2011. See H.R. 1125 for current action on this subject.

      http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/111/hr4646

      Now stands as hr 1125 and has been referred to committee: http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/hr1125

      Yep, Obama just needs a second term

      PS: Deron… looking forward to reading your work

      • "Yep, Obama just needs a second term" May I politely... [#109479]
        By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

        “Yep, Obama just needs a second term”

        May I politely inquire what in your research of HR4646 and HR1125 led you to believe Obama was involved with this bill or supported it in any way?
        Thanks

        • "May I politely inquire what in your research of HR4646 and... [#109488]
          By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

          “May I politely inquire what in your research of HR4646 and HR1125 led you to believe Obama was involved with this bill or supported it in any way?”

          Cornerstone,

          May I politely inquire as to how you turned that simple statement into one of accusation of Obama’s involvement or support?

          • "May I politely inquire as to how you turned that simple... [#109493]
            By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

            “May I politely inquire as to how you turned that simple statement into one of accusation of Obama’s involvement or support?”

            Sure! I read your comment. But I certainly did not use any language as harsh as “accusation”.
            Obama was not mentioned at all in the Armstrong blurb Bill posted, nor in any commentary accompanying it. And in all my personal research of HR4646/HR1125 I found info indicating that this bill has zero chance of ever passing. So I struggled to connect where the mention of a second Obama term was relevant to this specific question. I considered it was possibly a non sequitur, as it didn’t follow the previous part of your comment, or possibly a signature block sign-off quote. But the possibility that I was missing some piece of background information intrigued me, so I decided asking politely was the best course.
            Thanks for your response, and have a safe holiday weekend.

  14. ... [#109449]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Bill, Great to hear about your South Florida venue next... [#109456]
      By: kp84 (43 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill,

      Great to hear about your South Florida venue next year.
      Wishing you the best with your new CaraCommunity contributors,

      stewy

      • kp84, The south Florida venue for the Cara 2013 Conference... [#109458]
        By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

        kp84,

        The south Florida venue for the Cara 2013 Conference will fit with my chosen lifestyle but also (i) be home (i.e., America) to the majority of community members, (ii) reflects my view that, while the US is presently under siege from Wall Street and Washington, it does represent the best personal and cultural values of any country I know, and (iii) be close and affordable to the majority of you, including from those who will be flying in via Miami.

        I am really looking forward to the 2012 conference in Toronto and the 2013 conference in south Florida.

  15. 14them34me, You may have been onto something as GOOG gets... [#109450]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    14them34me, You may have been onto something as GOOG gets knocked down to the 200dma. Kicking out the stops or cascade down from here?
    Interesting, GOOG has been holding the fort, everything else taken to the woodshed, now vice versa, others bouncing back today (oversold and short cover?)

    • westcoaster, yeah, I regret missing the opportunity there... [#109460]
      By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

      westcoaster,
      yeah, I regret missing the opportunity there. No worries. I am now eyeing AAPL to the downside. As far as I’m concern, European’s crisis is not going away anytime soon, whether Greece leave the EU or not. When they have debt 160% over GDP, they are pretty much doomed. No band-aid job will fix it overnight. Liquidation sale everywhere. Bank run in Europe very likely. And Technology sector still has some unfinished business to the downside and may still test its recent low.

      AAPL, I’m betting will drop through the $558 level real soon and next level could be $550 area in a hurry. Then may be re-test the $525 area next. I’m holding put options on AAPL. We’ll see what the last hour brings.

      If there were some co-ordinated QE efforts around the world, all bets are off.

  16. Thanks for the warm introduction, Bill. I look forward to... [#109451]
    By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

    Thanks for the warm introduction, Bill. I look forward to getting to “know” your loyal readers and sharing my swing trading strategy going forward.

    Have a great 3-day weekend everyone.

    Cheers,

    Deron

    • I like your migratory patterns... [#109454]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      I like your migratory patterns Deron.

      • Hi Westcoaster, Nice to "meet" you. Well, it works for... [#109455]
        By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

        Hi Westcoaster,

        Nice to “meet” you.

        Well, it works for me. Spend most of the year in Southeast Asia, and have been doing so since 2004. Gives me a nice, firsthand comparative perspective amongst global equities markets.

        Cheers,

        Deron

        • Deron - I'm in the ICT timezone as well. And swing trading... [#109462]
          By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

          Deron -

          I’m in the ICT timezone as well. And swing trading seems to fit me better than anything. I’m interested to learn what you have to teach us!

          Its interesting you’re awake at 2am too…ha!

          • Hi Dave, Nice to meet a fellow swing trader. Are you a... [#109469]
            By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

            Hi Dave,

            Nice to meet a fellow swing trader. Are you a technical trader as well? If you want to learn the basis and summary of our swing trading methodology, please check out the video on the home page of our site (http://www.morpheustrading.com/?ref=caracommunity.com).

            Yeah, my working hours here in Asia are about 6 pm until 5 am most days, but it suits me fine because I am a night owl and not a morning person at all. Sleep in until about 12 noon, then relax a bit in the afternoon before starting work. My family just thinks I am actually a vampire.

            :-)

            Deron

          • Cara Conference 2014: Big Island or... [#109472]
            By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

            Cara Conference 2014: Big Island or Phuket!

          • westcoaster, Hey, why wait til... [#109474]
            By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

            westcoaster,

            Hey, why wait til 2014?

          • Thanks for the link, I'll look over the video a bit later... [#109485]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            Thanks for the link, I’ll look over the video a bit later in the weekend.

            As for technical trading – the answer is, I don’t really know! I write puts and calls (1-2 months out) on a base position when RSI (daily, weekly) shows an extended move in one direction or another, with my trades triggered by daily candles & volume that appear to mark distribution or accumulation. I buy back my puts/calls after a 50% gain. And I will lighten up my long position after MACD rollovers, and/or after explosive breakouts end up with RSI values > 90 and things start to look tired. But I sometimes buy back my longs too soon, and so I re-establish the base position at too high a price point, which is annoying during long downturns (such as the miners have experienced since April of 2011).

            So I’m interested in learning other methods of identifying better entry points for my long buying – as well as exit points for long liquidation. And likely I need to use stops more regularly when re-establishing my long positions. I do use them intraday, but don’t as often keep them around once the trading day closes.

            My trading time period comes from my lack of a desire to watch intraday moves every day. Some days I watch, other days I don’t.

          • Hey Davefairtex, Thanks for sharing your strategy... [#109504]
            By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

            Hey Davefairtex,

            Thanks for sharing your strategy. Interesting.

            Our trading strategy, as you will see, is technical but also rules-based. Average holding time for our swing trade positions is usually 1 to 3 weeks, though sometimes quicker for short positions.

            Feel free to drop me a line if you have any questions after watching the video link.

            Cheers,

            Deron

          • Deron - After reading through your stuff, I can say that... [#109505]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            Deron -

            After reading through your stuff, I can say that I’m definitely not a technical trader!

            I especially like the detail you provide of your system’s performance over the past 10 years. Few if any newsletter writers I’ve seen ever provide such detail. No wonder Bill let you in the house! :)

            I have no questions, your explanations all made sense. I’m very interested to see what your contributions will be here…

  17. I am working with another trader who will be starting a... [#109453]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    I am working with another trader who will be starting a regular column by the end of next week, which will be properly introduced. Essentially Jake will be giving us single trade ideas, which he and I will work on together.

    I feel that my working closely with several traders, each of whom has a different approach, will be most beneficial to the community at large.

    In about two months, this website will be re-built for easy navigation. Once again, please direct your suggestions to jack@contactcommunications.ca because we want to deliver the best we possibly can. The next week is an important one as the technical specs are undergoing change.

    Ultimately, the site will have video, webinars, features for mobile users, and so forth.

    I am getting to an age where this will probably be my final shot at web development. I need to return to trading and writing, which I find much more enjoyable.

    Have a great weekend. The WIR will be out on Sunday afternoon.

  18. I have updated the Cara 100 and published the lists sorted... [#109463]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    I have updated the Cara 100 and published the lists sorted by (i) ticker, (ii) growth or value category, (iii) sector.

    You can find them always in the top nav link.

    Next week, we will be undertaking a joint effort with ADVFN.com to present to you a Cara 100 Desktop that gives you up-to-date (real time or delayed) prices, news, charts and, when published, the commentary from Geoff and I. I think you will find this a terrific service.

    In future I will be doing specialized ADVFN Desktops for several other markets, such as global mining and exploration, India, China and Brazil. Deron will likely do one for ETFs.

    The new website is being designed to be fully integrated with ADVFN. I think you will find that it will be a significant improvement to what I have done so far.

    Onward and upward.

  19. at SPWR... if the world still exists in 10 years ( ! ) I am... [#109464]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    at SPWR… if the world still exists in 10 years ( ! ) I am betting ( if not bought out ) this old dog will be back around $ 25.00..

    • A lot of tech talk is about data centers... Apple is going... [#109481]
      By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

      A lot of tech talk is about data centers… Apple is going to use SPWR as 100% provider of enery at its main, US data center. Increasingly, private industry is turning ‘ green ‘.. but the really neat thing is large scale utility installation. With the US finally stepping to the plate on regulations of China solar dumping, things are looking brighter for FSLR and SPWR..Also, because of Total’s large ownership and backing, I am leaning to SPWR.

      • baz22, Re: #109481 If only the members of this community... [#109486]
        By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

        baz22,

        Re: #109481

        If only the members of this community, including me, could include so much info, with so few words, about trading, such as your recent contribution, we would all be better off for it.

        That’s not to say I agree or disagree with the notion you presented, but I found the entry delightful, and I thank you.

  20. BAC offering a 20yr bond with a one year yield to call of... [#109470]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

    BAC offering a 20yr bond with a one year yield to call of 5%.

    Feelin lucky are ya?

    Bank of America
    Step-Up Coupon Bond
    5.000 % Coupon To 05/25/2019
    6.000 % Coupon To 05/25/2026
    7.000 % Coupon To 05/25/2032
    05/25/2032 Maturity
    05/25/2013 Call @ 100
    Baa1/A- Moody’s/ Standard & Poor’s
    100 Price
    5.712 % Yield To Maturity
    5.000 % Yield To Call
    Survivor Put Option

    • BAC just called my 6.125% '21 bonds at par. Looks like they... [#109489]
      By: Tbolt (169 comments) Go to top ↑

      BAC just called my 6.125% ’21 bonds at par. Looks like they are trying to lower their cost of capital a bit. I also sold my BAC zeroes earlier this year, but maybe I should have held those since they were yielding 7%. It’s hard to find that kind of yield these days. Who knows if they are even solvent?

  21. To follow up to Bill's earlier introduction of me... In... [#109473]
    By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

    To follow up to Bill’s earlier introduction of me…

    In case anyone is interested in learning more about my trading strategy, market psychology, or trading principles, you may want to check out a new interview I just posted on my blog at this URL:

    http://www.morpheustrading.com/mtg-blog

    Have a great 3-day weekend everyone.

    Deron

  22. Hey Deron, Bill doesn't let just anybody write a column... [#109475]
    By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hey Deron, Bill doesn’t let just anybody write a column here. You must be special. :) Seriously, glad you’re here & I look forward to learning about swing trading ETFs. 12% gain holding SOXS for 3 days is nuthin’ to sneeze at.

    This blog is the best value on the internet, soon to be even better!

    Great subset of 100 companies, soon to have a dashboard(that’s what I call desktops). WEBinars, e-books, etc… bring it on!

    • Hi 4ever, Thanks for the note. Yes, I am certainly... [#109503]
      By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi 4ever,

      Thanks for the note.

      Yes, I am certainly honored to have the opportunity to share my commentary on this blog. Bill apparently have a rather loyal following here as well, which is great to see.

      Good trading to you,

      Deron

  23. Sure would like to see the sun set on... [#109476]
    By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

    Sure would like to see the sun set on FSLR.

  24. Funny it didn't get any air time down here... [#109478]
    By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

    Funny it didn’t get any air time down here. http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/05/23-5

  25. The old GDP = C + I + G + E (net exports) still... [#109480]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    The old GDP = C + I + G + E (net exports) still holds.

    Look at Europe. Cut C (austerity) and G (austerity) and disaster follows. And the argument that private investment will be rushing in to fill the gap? Not happening.

    We still need to find where the jobs are coming from…the low-skill jobs at the music stores and grocery stores are getting replaced by the conglomerates (Apple, Amazon) and automated check out machines.

    “We wouldn’t be in this position if Wesley Snipes had paid his taxes.” – Real Time with Bill Maher

    • ALOHA!! Cut C (austerity) and G (austerity) and disaster... [#109483]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      Cut C (austerity) and G (austerity) and disaster follows.

      In Jan 2013 “sequester” kicks in …

      Of course “private investment” cannot fill gaps because no person or corporation has the ability to guarantee unlimited debt! If I could keep increasing my credit limit on my credit cards for my entire life and then tax my friends and relatives just enough to cover the ever rising minimum due, never paying down principal, then I could fill that gap. Add in the other 311 million Americans and we could all fill that gap! Any one of the HB&B could fill that gap if they had the power of the US Treasury behind them.

      This is what has led to huge global malinvestment in so many ways. It is a double edged sword in that government has helped create new technology by use of debt that extends human life which in turn increases population which in turn burdens the “cradle-to-grave” government entitlement network. Take away EBT and see what happens to our city streets when 46 million Americans can’t buy food. Then follow that down to SafeWay and Wal-Mart’s bottom line. It’s a guaranteed “demand chain” and so long as the “supply chain” keeps up the system works!

      Go back to life before computers and the simple limitation of paper and ink was practically a gold standard in itself and it was a guaranteed monetary policy. There are historical variations on that theme with one of the most recent being the 1920s Reischmark being printed with ink on just one side of the paper currency. That was a visual red flag to the public no doubt! That’s when HUMAN ACTION kicks into high gear … Now we have “mouse clicks”, no ink and no paper and no monetary policy other than “Debt Gone Wild”! Thanks to “debt backed political money” we have a plethora of black swans ahead of us. In a very perverse way the advent of “derivatives” was a God Send since they will only hasten the debt destruction.

      There is no filling gaps without C or G, never mind “C and G” … only complete destruction of all currencies and economies.

      The fuse was lit back in 1913 …

  26. No disrespect to the Four Tops and their one hit wonder but... [#109482]
    By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

    No disrespect to the Four Tops and their one hit wonder but I’ve got a bone to pick with the deflationists….to wit; CHOCOLATE.

    Shopping as I must at AMERICA’S STORE, Wal-Mart I notice prices and the changes over time. I’ve commented on canned kidney bean prices in the past but yesterday I was truely flumoxed by the prices in the candy isle.

    OK, I bribe my grandchildren with Hershey’s nuggets when they visit.

    So to prices.

    In 2009, a 14oz bag of Hershey’s Special Dark Chocolate with Almonds cost $2.78. In 2010, the price rose to $2.98. In 2011, the price increased to $3.18 and the bag was reduced to 12oz.

    Yesterday the price was $3.48 and I kid you not… the bag was 11oz!!! Check for yourself and do your own the math… My math says that the unit price has increased by 59.26% over 3 plus years.

    I abhor PAYING higher prices but I love receiving higher prices. Feeder cattle are bringing close to $160 a hundred weight. Half my herd will grade ‘choice’ so add another 35cents or so. Two years ago, the price was around $118. A windfall? Hardly since my input costs have risen as well.

    I can relate to that hard rock miner whose costs for fuel, equipment, taxes and labour have increased. My only advantage is that my bulls and cows need to copulate and I’m therefore the recipient of baby calf dividends.

    We seem to be the unlucky recipients of cost push inflation. When, not if interests rates begin to rise, the demand for bank loans will skyrocket and hence demand pull will kick in.

    I saw this in the late 70′s and early 80′s when home buyers scrambled to lock in 11% mortgage rates before they jumped to 15%…

    Markets are all about the psychology of the times, and not so much the beauty of eternal linear logic.

    • ALOHA!! When, not if interests rates begin to rise, the... [#109484]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      When, not if interests rates begin to rise, the demand for bank loans will skyrocket and hence demand pull will kick in.

      At what rate will that demand pull kick in?

      I saw this in the late 70′s and early 80′s when home buyers scrambled to lock in 11% mortgage rates before they jumped to 15%…

      Was that the same 1970s when I was paying $15 per credit per semester to go to college? Back then total cost for books for all classes for one semester was $180. My two bed-two bath utilities included apartment was $200 per month in Southern California, which I split with a roommate $100 per month. Not sure how $1TRIL in student debt will translate to “home buyers scrambled” not to mention the record number of Americans now living under Chapters 7, 11 and 13 and the unemployed and underemployed crammed into MickyD and Sears and EBT. Where’s the mobility? Add in the banks that make risk free profits without lending a dime to “home buyers”! If all Americans have guaranteed 30 year union jobs in seven years when the BK statutes run out then maybe we can have another FLIP-O-RAMA! The demand of the 1970s cannot be compared to the demand of 2012.

      Besides they are not “home buyers” they are “mortgage buyers”, there is a huge difference that the American public is just now understanding. After getting burned so bad in real estate who is going to rush right back into more debt even if their credit score is 790 and they work at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave? What can you flip? We’re mostly a Nation of career-less debtors and renters now unsure if we’ll be employed in five years, never mind a guaranteed 30 year wage!

      When you own debt … debt owns you!

  27. I am wondering if a weakness in the PC business (recent... [#109490]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    I am wondering if a weakness in the PC business (recent miss of DELL) is a look into the continued strength of AAPL? Will the AAPL be plucked from the tree of earnings growth or remain firmly attached? I’m thinking the ladder.

    Long APPL. Accumulating small position in HPQ

    • "Accumulating small position in HPQ" Re: HPQ, may I ask... [#109492]
      By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

      “Accumulating small position in HPQ”

      Re: HPQ, may I ask what indicators/factors you like about HPQ?
      I no longer understand their business model after several leadership changes.
      Thanks

  28. As I filter through the "noise" around the world heard in... [#109491]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    As I filter through the “noise” around the world heard in the press, it still seems to me that the monetery authorities are setting up for a coordinated increase of liquidity in near or intermediate future.

  29. and look back at the previous for SPY, QQQ and... [#109494]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    and look back at the previous for SPY, QQQ and IWM

    http://goo.gl/YUen4

    • Hi Vad - the 1297.50 SPY support - Friday was not much to... [#109499]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Vad – the 1297.50 SPY support – Friday was not much to look at with the low volume, and with everyone expecting the worst it seems – I’d get a good laugh if next week the 200dma had a chance to catch 1297 and the market took a bounce for 5 or 6 days – rumor was somewhere this month had the most down days since some time in 1913 – I’ve done forgot the date;-)

      I hope everyone is having a great Memorial Day weekend!

      Earl

      • "I'd get a good laugh if next week the 200dma had a chance... [#109500]
        By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

        “I’d get a good laugh if next week the 200dma had a chance to catch 1297 and the market took a bounce for 5 or 6 days” I’d take the summer off, I’m 55% long 20% of it leverage TNA, SSO, AAPL,MUX, AUQ, RBY,GIX,APL Feels like a dead mans hand; nothing spectacular, could be a nice win if some news event doesn’t shot me.

  30. by right now ALL greeks, portuguese, irish, spaniards, and... [#109495]
    By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

    by right now ALL greeks, portuguese, irish, spaniards, and italians with a BRAIN must be moving ALL their money to cash and to german, swiss or offshore banks. It’s a one-way bet: leave your money where it is, and you might lose 2/3s of it in a euro exit and devaluation. Move your money, and its value is protected.

    We are 3 weeks away from the Greek election, and probably 6 weeks away from them being able to close the banks and issue drachmas. So, after 6 weeks more of banks in southern europe bleeding money, will there be a banking system left to be saved? Or will the ECB find itself extending euro loans to empty banks? Management would likely steal every euro that arrived!

    these thoughts stimulated by a good NYTimes op ed: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/business/economy

    • Spanish 10-yr bond spread to the German 10-yr bund sits at... [#109496]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      Spanish 10-yr bond spread to the German 10-yr bund sits at 4.92%, way past the point of trouble arriving when that spread went decisively past the 4.25% point signaling trouble has arrived. Numbers don’t lie.

  31. ... [#109497]
    By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑
  32. About once a year I manage to write something coherent ! ... [#109502]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    About once a year I manage to write something coherent ! ( now I can rest up ! ).. This community is like a never-ending painting, with new brush strokes and new colors being added every day. I think it has no ending, only evolution. Such a difference it has made in my life. There is so much energy here, maybe we could start our own power source ! Best wishes to all..

  33. "Standard & Poor's Ratings Services estimates the total... [#109506]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    “Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services estimates the total amount of refinancing and new money requirements over the next five years at between $43 trillion and $46 trillion. This demand for funds will potentially compound the credit rationing that may occur as banks seek to restructure their balance sheets, and bond and equity investors reassess their risk-return thresholds. These factors, amid the current eurozone crisis, a soft U.S. economic recovery following the Great Recession, and the prospect of slowing Chinese growth, raise the downside risk of a perfect storm for credit markets, in our view….”.

    http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/e

  34. (GR) As many as 6 weekend Greece opinion polls show support... [#109508]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    (GR) As many as 6 weekend Greece opinion polls show support for New Democracy (ND, pro-austerity) party at 25.6-27.7%; Syriza (anti-bailout) support at 20.1-26%
    - Polls indicate a coalition of New Democracy party and Pasok would win majority of approx 11-16 seats

    … and as a result,

    Currencies Update: EUR/USD indicated to open up about 40 pips above $1.2550

    IMO: from the technical point of view, this bounce is a short opportunity. Then again, we are in a news-driven market; if Greece polls continue showing pro-bailout parties gaining strength and, even more importantly, Germany indicates yielding to the pressure to nod to Eurobonds, this bounce will destroy more than one bear lair.

  35. "The plan, viewed as highly unorthodox by analysts... [#109509]
    By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

    “The plan, viewed as highly unorthodox by analysts, involves Madrid issuing Spanish government guaranteed debt to Bankia in return for equity, with the bank then able to deposit the bonds with European Central Bank as collateral for cash.”

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/90b3aaae-a818-11e1-

  36. ... is up. Enjoy your holiday... [#109510]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    … is up.

    Enjoy your holiday weekend.

  37. Perhaps the tide is beginning to turn . I hope . Waste... [#109511]
    By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

    Perhaps the tide is beginning to turn . I hope . Waste Management says 80% of the trucks it purchases during the next five years will be fueled by natural gas . http://tinyurl.com/d8vjzja

  38. ... [#109512]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑
  39. Seems like it happens every time the US has a... [#109513]
    By: Tower Dog (90 comments) Go to top ↑

    Seems like it happens every time the US has a holiday.

  40. Re: article set forth by jock, "What is most disturbing is... [#109517]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    Re: article set forth by jock,

    “What is most disturbing is that the euro-zone nations are democratic, protective of basic liberties, and have advanced intellectual and research communities. The final lesson of this debacle is that smart nations with noble motives can make very big mistakes. And that should concern us all.”

    Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University.

    Mistakes can also be made by intelegent democracies whose law makers are completely dominated by corporate interests and personal grabs at power.

  41. If 2-Faced-Book buys Opera, .... will there be any browsers... [#109525]
    By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

    If 2-Faced-Book buys Opera, …. will there be any browsers left that don’t spy on you and sell your information to the highest bidder?