Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 29, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[9:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

So, what’s up with Gold?

Sentiment is extremely negative which is a positive sign for bulls – but sentiment is not a great timing device.

We had a nice bounce from oversold levels, but it only lasted a few days before turning sharply lower. That is not a good sign for gold to move higher immediately from here.

By my count, the next great buying opportunity window should start in roughly 2 weeks and be open for the next few weeks. Trying to call an exact date is folly, so lets say the last few weeks of April would be the next time to expect a tradeable low to occur.

The dollar looks to have put in a low 3 days ago and a continued rally will put pressure on gold, possibly for a few weeks.

So; for All-Weather accounts, we managed to open and close profitable gold trades on both the long and short side in the last 5 trading days. However, catching each and every wiggle like that is not a high probability trading strategy for longer term traders. The way things are lining up, it looks like the next great buying opportunity in gold will be in a few weeks. If gold holds off on rallying until then, sentiment will be negative, technicals will be oversold and we will be in the timing band for a buy. If that occurs, you have to be long because that will be the trade that makes your year. Sure, the gold rally could start anytime before then, but a few more weeks of decline or sideways chop will shake out the last of the weak hands and provide even more upside potential.

For now, in All-Weather, we are trading around our core positions (long positions) in gold, waiting for the final low before overweighting the space. This strategy has worked many times over the last decade and will again. Although we are down to core positions, the final drop before the low can still be emotionally taxing, but that is exactly what we need to get the high probability set-up. In other words, embrace fear if it comes.

As I mentioned, the US dollar looks to be in rally mode. A break of the
February low will negate the bullish posture but until that happens, the dollar is going up. The correct trade seems to be selling stocks here, not buying them but liquidity continues to fuel the melt-up.

I keep hearing that the S&P is undervalued based on its P/E. Those analysts are using estimated earnings in their P/E calculation. I wondered what the “as reported” P/E looked like and I found this:

http://www.multpl.com/

From the “as reported” perspective, the S&P 500 is expensive. The chart shows that since 1880, the market has only been more expensive on 3 occasions: 1929, 2000 and earlier this decade. That should give you pause.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,151.23 6:44AM EDT Down 13.64 (0.63%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,330.20 3:20AM EDT Up 7.20 (0.31%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,396.11 6:59AM EDT Down 34.04 (0.99%) Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,918.43 6:44AM EDT Down 80.37 (1.15%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 323.23 6:44AM EDT Down 2.39 (0.73%) Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 478.11 6:44AM EDT Down 4.38 (0.91%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 336.26 6:59AM EDT Down 4.39 (1.29%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,205.72 6:44AM EDT Down 44.71 (0.72%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,766.51 6:44AM EDT Down 42.48 (0.73%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 973.50 6:59AM EDT Down 13.60 (1.38%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,505.50 6:44AM EDT Down 10.61 (0.70%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 739.75 6:44AM EDT Down 12.89 (1.71%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. 8:30 AM ET GDP 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET... [#106926]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 8:30 AM ET GDP
    • 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims
    • 8:30 AM ET Corporate Profits
    • 9:45 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    • 10:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report
    • 11:00 AM ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
    • 1:00 PM ET 7-Yr Note Auction
    • 3:00 PM ET Farm Prices
    • 4:30 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet
    • 4:30 PM ET Money Supply
  2. 1 in Accumulation Zone 6 in Distribution Zone 8 in Sell... [#106927]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 1 in Accumulation Zone
    • 6 in Distribution Zone
    • 8 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 4, Weekly 1, Daily 10
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 14, Weekly 27, Daily 15

  3. I estimate that the GOLD/HUI-ratio is about to top out in... [#106929]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

    I estimate that the GOLD/HUI-ratio is about to top out in the near future. Another 10% devaluation is still possible (GOLD/HUI <4). Upside is very attractive, which makes the risk/reward similar to that of late 2008. Miners have even started paying dividends.

    The support levels of the underlying metal prices have to be monitored. If they break one would most probably lose money even if the GOLD/HUI-ratio turns in favor of stock owners.

    This is totally irrelevant for traders, but for investors looking to 2013 and beyond I think it is time to start accumulate. Cash is trash in the long term.

  4. Good morning. 08:30 Initial Claims 08:30 GDP - Third... [#106931]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    08:30 Initial Claims
    08:30 GDP – Third Estimate

    ——

    AMZN – Amazon.com initiated with a Buy at ThinkEquity. Target $230

    EXC – Exelon reinitiated with a Neutral at Goldman. Target $40

    GOOG – Google initiated with a Buy at ThinkEquity. Target $714

    POT – Potash initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James. Target $60

    POT – Potash initiated with a Buy at Stifel Nicolaus. Target $56

    WFM – Whole Foods downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman based on valuation. Price target raised to $88 from $85.

    ——

    “It rankles me when somebody tries to force somebody to do something.” ~ John Wayne

  5. Full gubmint malarky here:... [#106932]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Full gubmint malarky here: http://is.gd/MxrgKJ

  6. M4 MONEY SUPPLY (YOY) UK for February Actual: -3.4% Cons.:... [#106933]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    M4 MONEY SUPPLY (YOY) UK for February
    Actual: -3.4% Cons.: Previous: -1.8%

    ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE EMU for March
    Actual: 94.4 Cons.: 94.6 Previous: 94.4

    INDUSTRIAL CONFIDENCE EMU for March
    Actual: -7.2 Cons.: -5.8 Previous: -5.7Revised from -5.7

    INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT PRICE (MOM) Canada for Feb
    Actual: 0.2% Cons.: 0.4% Previous: 0.3%

    RAW MATERIAL PRICE INDEX Canada for Feb
    Actual: -0.5% Cons.: 0.5% Previous: 0.2% Revised from 0.2%

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  7. Since February U.S. Stocks have been in `Corrective Mode,'... [#106934]
    By: DE (8 comments) Go to top ↑

    Since February U.S. Stocks have been in `Corrective Mode,’ McClellan Say. It just hasn’t realized yet. Also he shows an interesting chart of the SPX and the ROC of the ECB & FED Balance sheet. It shows this rally has been sugar free [no stimulus. Interesting 3min clip.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/89139395/

    • DE, It has also been my contention that we reached some... [#106949]
      By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

      DE,

      It has also been my contention that we reached some sort of top ( at least short term) in early/mid February. When the Russell 2000 peaked versus the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite in the first week of Feb, the trading environment got much more difficult – negative breadth became an issue as a small contingent of stocks were leading the S&P 500 higher while the broader Russell 2000 lost the momentum that carried it since October. If you were lucky enough to be long only the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, there were some modest gains to be enjoyed thru the rest of February on the back of rallies in select sectors like financials/techs/homebuilders/etc, and of course AAPL.

      It’s wait and see mode for me right now. I am not even very comfortable leaving my money in bond funds at the moment so I am almost entirely in cash besides some physical silver. I want some evidence that these $RUT:$SPX and $RUT:$NDX (stockcharts.com symbol ratios) charts can find some footing before I will feel comfortable having any positions that I don’t have to babysit.

      The only problem is that sitting around and not trading is no fun!! haha.

  8. ... [#106935]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑
  9. I believe this one will have legs... http://shar.es/p84zf... [#106936]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    I believe this one will have legs…
    http://shar.es/p84zf #IAMTHE66

  10. bought puts yesterday afternoon, may add if it breaches... [#106937]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    bought puts yesterday afternoon, may add if it breaches $56

    MilionCapital
    $AXP is downgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo, with the price target raised from $52-57 to $60-64.

  11. BRCM - estimates, target raised at Auriga USA. Shares now... [#106938]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    BRCM – estimates, target raised at Auriga USA. Shares now seen reaching $45. Company is leveraged to better mobile and switching demand, Auriga said. Buy rating.

    IBM – PT Lifted from $220 to $235 @ Argus. Buy

  12. Yesterday am., Cramer is warning individual investors to "... [#106939]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    Yesterday am., Cramer is warning individual investors to ” be careful ” about buying BNNY… on Mad Money at 5 pm. yesterday, he’s bragging about BNNY being ” a double ” ( actually it Opened at $ 31 and closed near $ 37 )… Today BNNY is the greatest buy in the world…. go figure

  13. ... [#106940]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  14. appears to be at some pretty major support - anyone buying?... [#106941]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    appears to be at some pretty major support – anyone buying? I’m not that familiar with the company.

    • Good morning, Earl... ' amrn ' has hit pivot twice in same... [#106942]
      By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

      Good morning, Earl… ‘ amrn ‘ has hit pivot twice in same 2 day frame… on watch.

      • Hi Baz - nice flag! watch for breakout on volume for... [#106944]
        By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

        Hi Baz – nice flag! watch for breakout on volume for sure.

      • Baz - I put in a conditional trade to buy on way up ... [#106962]
        By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

        Baz – I put in a conditional trade to buy on way up – worked like a charm. I have to figure out how to incorporate increasing volume…

        1MM share purchase.

  15. good thing I sold covered calls - will buy GGB if it can... [#106943]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    good thing I sold covered calls – will buy GGB if it can break above $9.75 on volume; $10.75 looks like a hard ceiling.

  16. there is a ton of vol. at NEM this... [#106945]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    there is a ton of vol. at NEM this am.

  17. "The Ohio Oil and Gas Education Energy Program estimates... [#106946]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    “The Ohio Oil and Gas Education Energy Program estimates that there are 204,000 jobs that will be created by 2014,” said Shawn Bennett of Energy In Depth Ohio. “And these people are going to be needing a place to get their hair cut as well as a place to get their toiletries and do their shopping.”

    http://www.wtrf.com/story/17279406/business-people

  18. Hi Earl. Hope all is well. I own (and have owned for quite... [#106947]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi Earl. Hope all is well. I own (and have owned for quite a while now) GGB calls at the Jan 2013 $12.50 strike.

    I am long and strong and don’t lose a wink of sleep over the position (despite increased volatility of late).

    I have not been adding though, as they just don’t trade much so the bid/ask spread is too far apart to get filled where you want. These calls are very thinly traded, so be careful if you choose to play GGB in this manner.

    I anticipate that GGB will be well over $12.50 by the strike date and I will be well in the black on the trade.

    GL.

    • Hi Nebish, my $9.55 order would not fill so $9.60 did;... [#106948]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Nebish,
      my $9.55 order would not fill so $9.60 did;-) but tight leash on hoping $9.6 area holds.

  19. http://goo.gl/2WwKs (tale of two... [#106953]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://goo.gl/2WwKs (tale of two trades)

    • Hi Vad, I missed a call to short CAT last week. that... [#106955]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Vad, I missed a call to short CAT last week. that inverted hammer at 104.40 may have been another.
      take care.
      Earl

  20. RIP Earl Scruggs, phenomenal banjo maestro surrounded by... [#106957]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    RIP Earl Scruggs, phenomenal banjo maestro surrounded by extraordinary musicians… Vince Gill, Steve Martin..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedd

    • Thanks tradylady, The "Father Of Bluegrass Banjo" and a... [#106970]
      By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

      Thanks tradylady,

      The “Father Of Bluegrass Banjo” and a true, American Treasure, Earl Scruggs will be sadly missed.

      Here’s Earl with Doc Watson and Ricky Skaggs:

      http://youtu.be/hZ8_rKhEMQY

      • Bull Hunter, Thank you! amazing... [#106984]
        By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

        Bull Hunter,

        Thank you! amazing talent/s!

      • Thanks girls and guys for the posts, brought me back to the... [#106987]
        By: Telestar3d (636 comments) Go to top ↑

        Thanks girls and guys for the posts, brought me back to the days of my youth when we would drive up to PA for a weekend of camping, bluegrass music and sometimes slipping and sliding in mud due to rain, good memories indeed.

        RIP Earl

  21. gapped up well clear of... [#106958]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    gapped up well clear of 20dma

  22. ... [#106959]
    By: loannetter (1298 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Speaking about dangerous lobbys that shred the fabric of... [#106971]
      By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

      Speaking about dangerous lobbys that shred the fabric of neighborhoods and families, the non-profit guised National Association of Realtors and Mortgage Bankers Association have probably caused more suicide by debt than most other organizations that come to mind.

      Mortgage Bankers Association, motto:

      Give me your tired, your poor,
      Your huddled masses yearning to live free

      Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
      To learn the meaning of debt slavery

      We post our mortgage quotes beside the golden door.

      • Ilya, I expected no less from a self professed cow poke... [#107000]
        By: loannetter (1298 comments) Go to top ↑

        Ilya, I expected no less from a self professed cow poke ignorant of the ways of sound mortgage lending because of course you never need money. Your insults are almost predictable, tired but predictable.

        What I asked (and actually hoped to spark some intelligent discussion) was if investors here bother to know or care what your companies are supporting with the money you give them. Oh well, what matter social conscience. Poke away!

        • ALOHA!! "What I asked (and actually hoped to spark some... [#107002]
          By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

          ALOHA!!

          “What I asked (and actually hoped to spark some intelligent discussion) was if investors here bother to know or care what your companies are supporting with the money you give them.”

          First off I will clarify that I do not “give” money to companies as I expect a fair rate of return in exchange for the use of my capital! I have been asking that same question only about US Treasury and government stuff via “tax revenues” and “debt”. So far not much of a response in terms of voters caring about what either party does to the rest of the world’s citizens or for that matter us. The US Treasury and the various States treasuries have about the worst track record for managing my tax dollars. I give them $1 in taxes and they give me $4 in debt! I look around my house and none of my neighbors have electricity. None have a paved road. None have utilities and even I have no sewage service or police or ambulance. I have my own private defibrillator! We all have an abundant year round supply of free water and food though … No thanks to any government entity for that! I would say my living situation is the extreme opposite of most people here on the blog. By my own choice though …

          For me I can only hope to care about what I do personally, which kind of ties into my “dumb phone” post. In terms of my personal life I maintain a very small footprint on this Earth. In terms of housing and living space my wife and I occupy less than 500 sq ft in living space. I have built larger jail cells than our bedroom! We are farmers and have five acres so our land is our life. A lot of companies that produce products which many people take for granted and enjoy as a luxury would go bankrupt tomorrow if they had to depend on my wife and I as consumers. About 95% of mainstream media would go bye-bye. About 100% of the Coach, Mercedes, SubZero type companies would have to shut their doors. All of the Tiffany and Cartier would be gone! Martha Stewart and Trump outta here! Goldman and the big HB&B down n dirty! Not to mention most of the tech sector companies. Movie theaters and restaurants goodbye too! My wife and I probably go to the movies once a year and to a restaurant maybe twelve times a year! I really do not miss any of it because I have no need for it … Luckily the DOW does not rely on types like me to prop up its components!

          In my youth I used to go all PC and ENVIRO on my Father for his association with Chevron and Exxon! Then after that tirade I jumped in my Chevy truck and drove to the gas station so I could drive down south surfing. Even my surfboards were petroleum products! So is your iPhone and TV. Stop reading this and now look up and take a look around the room you are in and count the items that came from the ground either by mining or drilling. My guess is about 100% of what you consume in your daily life comes from the ground! At what point do we really act on our supposed Holier Than Thou finger pointing? Oh, that’s right I forgot that America is the self appointed “global consumer” of the World. Without our unlimited spending and consuming the rest of the World would not survive.

          I watched this week as FVI got punished by the market, partially for its perceived misrepresentation of safety issues pertaining to a mining incident that resulted in loss of life. How much market cap did it lose due to that incident? The C WORD hit management …

          Then again how many people die every day in America in their cars? How many people die around the world unreported in shallow graves? How many people in America can’t afford to stay alive? About 46 million can’t afford to pay for their own daily bread. How many die every day due to lack of proper medical care. How many people are risking severe injury or death because they cannot afford health insurance? Who has a PLAN B? C? D? X?

          In the long run extreme levels of debt will create extreme levels of chaos. Who plans such chaos? Tell me there is a “plan” … isn’t there? Is there a “master plan” we can all rely on? Is there a reset button on this pin ball game? Yes we each do have a plan. For the most part it is another C WORD known as “community”.

        • Lets see, among hot button divisive issues there is... [#107003]
          By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

          Lets see, among hot button divisive issues there is abortion, global warming, gay marriage, and everyone’s favorite, gun control. I’m going to suggest we don’t go too deeply down any of these rabbit holes. Likely as not, peoples minds are already made up on these issues, and all we will do at the end of a lot of posting is exchange insults.

    • ... [#106972]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
    • ... [#106964]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑
  23. ... [#106960]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  24. FSM - Fortuna upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at... [#106951]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    FSM – Fortuna upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital (pre-open).

  25. a bit shocking but very good for Americans!!! I'd hate to... [#106966]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    a bit shocking but very good for Americans!!! I’d hate to see what electric bills would be if the chart was headed the other way. thank you private O&G companys.

    • In most places, the actual natural gas rates lag behind the... [#106969]
      By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

      In most places, the actual natural gas rates lag behind the market due to hedging. Bills for natural gas should continue to get cheaper as utilities work off their old (and poorly performing) hedges. However, I wouldn’t bet against most of the utilities to offset the savings with a bunch of cockamamie fees though.

  26. ... [#106974]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Bill - FT fails to mention Iran was cut off from the SWIFT... [#106975]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill -

      FT fails to mention Iran was cut off from the SWIFT banking system of exchange and so is now swapping oil for gold with other friendly nations and Russia is keeping its national trade confidential while India stupidly came out and said sure Iran lets trade without U.S. Federal Reserve Notes. That would be my guess as to why Putin sold some gold: To build relations with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his massive oil production.

    • Adrian Ash, Head of Research at BullionVault.com: Slipping... [#106995]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      Adrian Ash, Head of Research at BullionVault.com:

      Slipping by 3.8 tonnes, Russia’s gold reserves have doubled by weight since 2007 to 883 tonnes, and quadrupled as a proportion of its total foreign exchange reserves by value to 9.8%.

      Figures from Data Explorers, quoted by CityWire, say that hedge funds and other investors have sharply increased their short sales of gold mining stocks.

      “Indian [gold] demand has been dead for three months,” said a senior Swiss logistics executive to BullionVault on Thursday, as the strike by India’s jewelry retailers protesting a hike in import duties to 4% by value entered its 14th day. “Nothing’s moving, everyone’s waiting.”

      In the last 3 months of 2011, Chinese households overtook Indian consumers as the world’s top buyers of physical gold according to GFMS data, despite the gold price recording its second-ever highest quarterly average against the Yuan.

      http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/adrian-

      Feels like a mixed bag of forces muddying the waters here at this time. Cue interest rate expense on sovereign debt and currency devaluation as trigger for the next stage of this rally. JMO. As to when…?

      • ALOHA!! RUSSIA SOLD IT - WHO BOUGHT IT? FYI-It's a whole... [#106998]
        By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

        ALOHA!!

        RUSSIA SOLD IT – WHO BOUGHT IT?

        FYI-It’s a whole other world than in 1980 when the last gold TOP hit! In 1980 Russia took a hint from the Rolling Stones as its only real market was “painted black”! The same goes for China and most of the rest of Asia and South America and Africa. Mostly only Western Europe and North America played the gold and silver markets then, but today those markets are truly global! Any visit to KITCO at any time day or night and the gold and silver markets are virtually open and trading 24/7 and 360 degrees! That adds a whole lot more on the demand side than in 1980. Add in the global population has doubled. What better way to keep the supply side of the equation going than “paper”?

        Back to the C WORD as there just isn’t a whole lot of anything in this world you can trust any more!~

  27. ... is a great reminder about dangers of buying ahead of a... [#106976]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    … is a great reminder about dangers of buying ahead of a material event, thinking that it can be figured out:

    VVUS FDA vote suggests obesity drugs need to be studied for risks to the heart; Vote was 17-6

  28. I wish they all could be so good. At least I did say that... [#106977]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    I wish they all could be so good. At least I did say that some of my
    associates believed this company, while risky unless and until they
    could prove out a larger scale operation, did have the biggest %
    upside.

    Re Greenfield, I recently incorporated Greenfield Mining Capital Inc
    as a private consulting company. There were too many regulatory issues
    in raising capital directly, so we decided to use our law firm and
    their exempt market dealer to assist in the financing of Greenfield client
    companies. More on this later.

    • Bill, thanx again for cluing us in on this. Do you see any... [#106978]
      By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill,

      thanx again for cluing us in on this. Do you see any reason (technical or otherwise) why they could not established a larger scale operation ?

      • 14them34me, Unfortunately, I'm not a chemist! We can only... [#106980]
        By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

        14them34me,

        Unfortunately, I’m not a chemist! We can only go on what the company reports. So far, I think it’s all good.

        I like the insider buying and the addition of quality directors.

        I’m sticking with it.

  29. ... for non-FB... [#106979]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑
  30. this is an old gripe, but top dogs arrested in HK, that may... [#106982]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    this is an old gripe, but top dogs arrested in HK, that may show law enforcement has cahones. Why not in America? http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6fc76ea0-79a3-11e1-

  31. Not sure how representitive but I saw a blogger quoting... [#106983]
    By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

    Not sure how representitive but I saw a blogger quoting some small cap investors very tired of the gold space and the failed promise of the juniors. The shakeout Geoff describes in full force, revulsion, capitualtion?
    http://myownmarketnarrative.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03

    Could I see a nice spike down in gold and Hui today?

    A bull hammer on $CDNX? Gap filled.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24cdnx

    I can only describe this analysis which comes out publicly on Bob Moriarty’s site every month or so as a bit weird, but my sense is that he gets a lot of the turns. He suggests a very rarely occurring important point to come soon.
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html

  32. I believe the truth is starting to surface re MF Global... [#106985]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    I believe the truth is starting to surface re MF Global, and at the end of the day if Congress does not have the good sense to prosecute the wrong-doers, then they are to blame for the public’s having lost confidence in the integrity of US capital markets.

    If the situation worsens, just watch how quickly capital departs the US in search of markets that are known to have integrity.

  33. little voice said 'don't bottom fish', but when it appeared... [#106986]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    little voice said ‘don’t bottom fish’, but when it appeared that it was closing near the high of the day, cast my line and caught one.

  34. Here's a 57 page article concerning gold manipulation... [#106988]
    By: rosevillebill (150 comments) Go to top ↑

    Here’s a 57 page article concerning gold manipulation available for download and is written by Paul Mylchreest who submits articles on the GATA website posted at TFMetals.

    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3590/traveling-

  35. in slow motion. Let's give it to NYUGrad who saw it coming... [#106989]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    in slow motion. Let’s give it to NYUGrad who saw it coming long before price started reflecting the disaster

    Research in Motion Ltd Laying off ‘lots’ of high level staff today in a ‘big shake up’ today – Canada press citing sources- Sales and marketing staffing has been cut along with some executives.

    Research in Motion Ltd Reports Q4 $0.80 v $0.81e, R$4.19B v $4.5Be; Will no longer provide quantitative guidance; CTO retires after 13 years
    - The company expects continued pressure on revenue and earnings throughout fiscal 2013. Due to a desire to focus on long term value creation and the current business environment, RIM will no longer provide specific quantitative guidance.
    - Q4 gross margins 33.4% v 44.2% y/y
    - Q4 shipments 11.1M BlackBerry devices v 14.1M q/q; 500K Playbook tablets v 150K q/q ‘
    - Jim Balsillie, former Co-CEO of the Company, has resigned as a Director on the Company’s Board.
    - David Yach will be retiring from his role as CTO, Software after 13 years with the Company and after 4 years with the company and following an open dialogue on the future of global operations, Jim Rowan, COO, Global Operations, has decided to pursue other interests. The Company is currently undertaking a search to hire a single COO with responsibilities to run the Company’s operations.
    - CEO: “I have assessed many aspects of RIM’s business during my first 10 weeks as CEO. I have confirmed that the Company has substantial strengths that can be further leveraged to improve our financial performance, including RIM’s global network infrastructure, a strong enterprise offering and a large and growing base of more than 77 million subscribers. I’m very excited about the prospects for the BlackBerry 10 platform, which is on track for the latter part of calendar 2012. Notwithstanding these strengths and opportunities, the business challenges we face over the next several quarters are significant and I am taking the necessary steps to address them.”

    Research in Motion Ltd Resuming quotation down about 8% below $12.80

    • NYU called it but check the archives. This dumb bunny said... [#106992]
      By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

      NYU called it but check the archives. This dumb bunny said to short RIMM when it was over $80 and cover under $10. I can spot a phoney product and business plan from outer space…

      Next….AAPL. They produce their I-thingies in the least ‘green’ country in the world using semi-slave labour and design products that obsolete themselves by the customer’s inability to even change the stupid battery. Weld closed the hood on a Toyota and you ‘get’ to buy the new model after 5 years! Maybe…Not particularly consumer friendly to my mind. Technology is an evil fickle mistress who is want to change bed partners on a whim when the newest stud becomes available.

      Add to that the fact that AAPL will be characterized and targeted as an exploitive money grubbing toy manufacture. Their margins will surely erode from 30+ percent to back to under 10% and the magic will suddently disappear. Like RIMM, short it from here to the moon and cover under $10.

      Jobs was a brilliant huckster. He’s dead. Move on.

      • Good call. Didn't omit your part intentionally, just missed... [#106993]
        By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

        Good call. Didn’t omit your part intentionally, just missed it, sorry.

        I too am not a fan of iToasters and iKettles. As far as choosing ecosystem goes, I’ll take Android over iOS any day. Where exactly short entry is though, I’ve no idea… why here and not $100 ago or $100 later? :)

        • here here Ilya! Itunes drives me insane with its paranoia... [#106994]
          By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

          here here Ilya! Itunes drives me insane with its paranoia and attempts to control how I consume my media. That alone puts me off any more of the company’s gadgets.

          Vad, I thougth Brandt had a setup for an AAPL short. A chart from the maestro himself – Jesse Livermore:

          http://peterlbrandt.com/would-jesse-livermore-be-l

          • But that setup hasn't formed yet, Les. The top marked as 10... [#106997]
            By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

            But that setup hasn’t formed yet, Les. The top marked as 10 is not the place to short – it’s a reversal formed by drop, bounce and lower top that signals short entry. Point marked as 10 can be here or 50 bucks higher or 200. As always, reversal is to be traded on the right side… want to guess a top (or a bottom for that matter) before it happened? Good luck with that, cemetery of traders’ accounts has a generic tombstone saying “He was a brave trader and always tried to nail exact reversal.”

          • Of course Vad, and in all fairness to those perhaps less... [#107006]
            By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

            Of course Vad, and in all fairness to those perhaps less adapt to understanding market mechanics, Brandt was by no means suggesting that position 10 has been made and you can safely short here. Yes, a lower high, marked in as 11 & 12, makes for a more appropriate setup.

            But I liked the comparison. Some market mechanics do not change, regardless of the era we live in. Certainly entertaining to watch how AAPL behaves from here.

          • ALOHA!! I agree with this guys comments in the "comment"... [#106996]
            By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

            ALOHA!!

            I agree with this guys comments in the “comment” section:
            “Remeber the other Livermore saying “Prices are never too high to buy, or too low to sell (short)”

            He was also a break out trader, and AAPL broke out around 410. Livermore would have made a bundle on this one, and then he would have lost it all in Cotton. :-)

            Who had the calls? Ride it up-Ride it down!

            I subscribe to the “dumb phone” edict. “The less I use it the less I need it”. Call me draconian but I like simplicity! My most valuable app on my tracfone is “speaker phone”! Most of the time my cell phone is in my truck, turned off with no voice mail! The Pope of Silicone Valley has dubbed me “incommunicado”! HA!!

            I am also a FaceBook hold out. I’m not there, but KAIMU NURSERY is! I can sum up my simplistic attitude toward my “phone life” with this 70′s song …

            LINK: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2L3g0cjbXM&featur

        • At risk of turning this into an smartphone blog, I've had... [#106999]
          By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

          At risk of turning this into an smartphone blog, I’ve had more problems with my Android LG Optimus G2X (running Gingerbread) than I ever did with my Iphone 3GS. The OS tends to lock up more often, and it requires a reboot – er, I mean a power cycle. It also has major issues transiting between WiFi and 3G.

          Writing software for Android is pretty cool though; they have a well thought out development environment. And the hardware prices are better for what you get. Since I’m both cheap, and technical, Android works fine for me. I especially like the concept that I can configure my own Android release (they call them “custom ROMs”) and drop it on my phone. I haven’t done it yet, but the thought alone is a pretty cool concept. Having the source out there is also reassuring to me that Big Brother hasn’t completely taken over.

          Ecosystem-wise, I think there are some serious malware issues on Android that Google has not addressed systemically yet. They will eventually, but right now its more of a “download and pray” environment.

          On the other hand, if I used itunes to download media, I’d probably be upset as well.

          I haven’t tried writing apps for IOS.

          I really enjoy AAPL computer products, especially the macbook. And their service is outstanding. At the moment, I can’t imagine buying a PC ever again. A Mac is the only thing I’d get for my family, because I know if they had a problem, AAPL would take care of them. The thought of other computer companies providing actual service is laughable.

          The stock, on the other hand, reminds me of Cisco back in 2000. I think Ilya is right – at some point those margins will get hurt. I think someone here pointed out that the carriers are the ones subsidizing AAPL’s margins. When will this come to an end? Its a tough question to answer.

          Possibly amusing factoid. Over the past 15 months, fully 88% of AAPL’s gains have come on Mondays and Tuesdays. And most of the gains (71%) come from gap opens rather than intraday price moves. The moral of the story is, it would seem to be a dangerous idea to hold an AAPL short over the weekend.

  36. With the bankers' obsession to add zeroes to everything... [#106991]
    By: pulse (324 comments) Go to top ↑

    With the bankers’ obsession to add zeroes to everything, visionary Canadian politicians have decided to eliminate 1!

    http://finance.sympatico.ca/home/mint_will_stop_ma

    $25 billion deficit projected from our ‘Conservative’ tricksters. This was the wisdom our Finance minister was able to produce. No efforts to tame the housing bubble about to consume us, of course. Simpleton politics as usual, throughout their budget.

    National leadership was removed from circulation, long before these pandering puppets pretended to be respectable.

    We are going to pursue ‘covered bonds’ though – better to spread the risk around, doncha think. SPVs for all! Way to go! Frank and Stephen bring us right up to speed with the rest of the world’s brilliant bankers/regulating cabal, eh?

    http://www.fin.gc.ca/activty/consult/cb-os-eng.pdf

    Just my 5 cents,
    pulse