Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 26, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[9:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

From Friday:

“Conversely, sentiment in gold is negative and the recent decline has led to many traders exiting the space. I would feel more comfortable with a bigger shake of the tree to get the final longs out, but any news positive for gold could lead to a big rally in gold.”

And from Bill’s Week in Review:

“The Weekly chart looks ready to end the bearish cycle, and the Daily chart shows me it might have started late this week off an over-sold condition. If the price continues to lift on Monday, it could be a new ball game for the Goldminer Bulls.”

Looks like we have a lift in the precious metals and mining shares today, so the short term looks bullish. Once again, buying weakness in gold was the correct trade.

For the intermediate term; if the US dollar breaks below the February low there is a very good chance that gold will strongly rally, possibly testing $1800 in the next few months. The stock market’s persistent strength may be a sign that the dollar will indeed make that move and stocks will continue to climb.

The current stock market rally is extremely long in the tooth. The reason for this is continuing central bank intervention. I read a few articles this weekend referring to the lack of recent Fed printing. Bernanke’s actions over the years points towards a continuation of the printing of US Dollars not a slowdown – I really don’t think he has much choice in the matter and although it may be off balance sheet and not transparent, the presses will continue to roll on.

This is the last week of the month and there is a very good chance for a month end mark-up so be prepared for that should it come.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,177.12 6:44AM EDT Down 2.29 (0.11%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,341.79 6:59AM EDT Up 3.48 (0.15%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,474.50 6:59AM EDT Down 1.68 (0.05%) Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,038.22 6:45AM EDT Up 42.60 (0.61%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 327.10 6:44AM EDT Up 0.91 (0.28%) Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 488.00 6:44AM EDT Up 3.19 (0.66%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 341.97 6:44AM EDT Up 2.19 (0.64%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,267.63 6:45AM EDT Up 27.30 (0.44%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,880.02 6:45AM EDT Up 25.13 (0.43%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 986.40 6:59AM EDT Down 1.60 (0.16%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,544.54 Mar 23 Up 14.34 (0.94%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 772.47 6:44AM EDT Down 0.19 (0.02%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth

This piece by Bob Moriarty of 321gold.com is classic in it’s presentation, analysis and honesty. Bob is a straight shooter, and as always makes some cogent points about analysis being more of an art than a science.

Extremes of Emotion

Bob Moriarty, March 26, 2012

There are a whole slew of interesting theories about investing that simply don’t work. Technical analysis doesn’t work. Fundamental analysis doesn’t work. Elliott Wave doesn’t work except in hindsight. Robert Prechter spent half of the last decade waiting for $200 gold and he’s made millions of dollars selling books teaching people how to use the Elliott Wave.

Now that I’ve got your attention and have you madder than a wet hen because you know TA works or fundamental analysis works or Elliott Wave works, let me clarify what I mean.

They don’t work consistently. They are aids to investing, not magic wands that you wave over your computer and it spits out $100 bills. I don’t know a single investor who got rich using any or all of them. Most investors confuse brains with a bull market. We are in a bull market. If you buy right, you might profit. It’s not much more complex than that.

But there is one theory of investing that does work absolutely consistently and that is Extremes of Emotion. The really smart guys I know, the filthy rich investors I know and I know a few only, all have read one book and understand it. The book was written around 1860 and has stood the test of time. It’s called “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds” by Charles MacKay.

If you read it and follow what it suggests you might get rich as a result. If you don’t, you won’t get rich unless you go sell a bunch of books on Elliott Wave to unsuspecting investors.

Basically the book shows that people are dumber than bricks and are constantly following guys selling scams. As long as the latest “Guru” tells people what they want to hear, he’ll be popular and they will lose all their money. But the book also implies that if you do the opposite of the mob you will make money. And you will, consistently. All you have to do is find Extremes of Emotion and do the opposite of the crowd. You won’t make yourself popular but you will make yourself rich.

Does it work? Sure. How would you have liked to predict the top in gold in November of 2004? Or the top in silver and gold to the day in March of 2008? I was speaking a few days later at a mining conference in Chicago on a panel that had an arrogant young man who claimed to be the world’s leading expert on silver. He proudly told the cheering crowd that silver was going to the moon and he was buying with both hands. I said we were in for a crash. When silver crashed that fall, the young man lost some of his arrogance and all of his silver. March 17 was the top.

Or the plunge in silver in April of last year, would you have liked to make money on it? Actually half a dozen guys got it right and said it was going to tumble and were mocked by the cheerleaders. It was possible to call the top to the day and some did.

There are a couple of ways to measure Extremes of Emotion. Bullish Consensus is excellent but the services that offer it need to get with the program and start overlaying the BC with the price of the commodity.

In April of this year, the BC on silver was the highest it has been in history, higher than it was in January of 1980 at the last top in silver. When I said that record high BC marked tops in any commodity, I had dozens of parrots telling me why it didn’t matter, silver was going to $5000.

You can also use common sense. Markets go up and markets go down and everyone in investing understands that except GATA. They are convinced themselves and have convinced hundreds of people that silver and gold have to go up every single day and if they don’t, it’s proof of a conspiracy to manipulate the price down.

Gold’s gone from $252 in August of 1999 to $1900 and change in September of 2011. Silver went from $4 in November of 2001 to just about $50 last April. If there is some wicked conspiracy holding down the price of gold and silver, those running the conspiracy are doing such a rotten job of keeping the price down that you can safely ignore all nonsense of manipulation.

You can even count and think about the ramifications. If you understand how markets work, you know markets go up one day and down the next. That’s true of every market. So if something goes up two days in a row, it’s more likely to go down the third day than go up. If it goes up ten days in a row, it’s really likely to go down the next. And if a market goes up 19 days in row as the Naz did in March of 2000, you better head for the exits, there is going to be a giant crash.

Any Extreme of Emotion marks a turning point and you can ignore TA, you can ignore fundamentals, you can ignore Elliott Wave and you can ignore manipulation. All markets are manipulated. Live with it.

I found one last week, an Extreme of Emotion.

moriarty032612.gif

From 1999 until August of 2008, the ratio of the XAU over gold provided both highly accurate buy signals and sell signals for gold and gold shares. Here’s how it works.

The XAU is made up of senior gold shares, everything from Goldcorp to Newmont to Silver Standard and Yamana. Gold is obviously gold. So the ratio shows which is more popular, gold shares via the XAU or gold.

When investors love gold, they buy the XAU. When they hate gold, they sell the XAU. You literally could draw lines on the chart and when either one or the other was violated it gave a clear signal to buy gold and gold shares or to sell. That worked right up until August of 2008 at the beginning of what came to be called the GFC or Global Financial Crisis. During August, September and October of 2008, investors around the world were unloading every share they could sell just to raise cash to make margin calls.

As a result, there were hundreds of gold stocks selling for less than the cash they had on hand. The last time that happened was in 2001 at the bottom for gold shares. So with gold at $695 in late October of 2008, gold shares as measured by the XAU were actually cheaper than they were relative to gold at $255 gold in mid-2001. That’s nuts. Gold shares got hammered in November and December of 2008 with tax loss selling and investors dumping every loser they owned but between October of 2008 and six months later gold and gold shares rocketed higher.

If you want to invest and make money, you have to be a contrarian. If it makes you feel better to whine about how the nasty guys at the Fed and Treasury and every bank in the world are making gold go down every time gold drops a nickel, it may make you feel better but it won’t make you feel richer.

If you want to invest to make money, buy when everyone wants to sell and sell when everyone wants to buy. Right now, at $1662.80 gold, investors are more negative on gold shares than they have ever been in history and that marks bottoms. For both shares and gold.

###


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  1. Thanks ever so much for the reply, Pierre. I just found it... [#40685]
    By: Mackinaw (812 comments) Go to top ↑

    Thanks ever so much for the reply, Pierre. I just found it now, and yes, I thought I was being ignored :) Glad to hear that it was just good old technology preventing us from communicating freely. Your assessment of the cycles and targets clarifies, and crystalizes, much of my understanding of what’s going on.

    Cheers.

  2. 8:30 AM ET Chicago Fed National Activity Index 10:00 AM... [#106796]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 8:30 AM ET Chicago Fed National Activity Index
    • 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales Index
    • 10:30 AM ET Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
    • 11:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction
    • 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction
  3. 7 in Distribution Zone 11 in Sell alert Accumulation... [#106797]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 7 in Distribution Zone
    • 11 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 3, Weekly 2, Daily 7
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 14, Weekly 24, Daily 13

  4. ... [#106798]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m5

    LOL, dunno where that move came from in all the metals, but I like it.

    • ... [#106800]
      By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
      • ... [#106805]
        By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
        • I'm going to take a long weekend break again if that's what... [#106810]
          By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

          I’m going to take a long weekend break again if that’s what happens to gold and the miners…

          Congrats to any who bought the extreme fear.
          It will take a little longer for those who’ve been too early on the slope like me.

          We’ll see if we can get a few closes above that technical support in HUI at 480 to encourage many who have taken cash to the side even from strong stocks, I see we’ve popped back beneath already, or perhaps just testing…

          Interestingly on the Canadian Venture $CDNX which has been a good divergent bullish indicator for the past few weeks it doesn’t look to take too much to cross the 50d back above the 200d, and gapped up today – gaps get filled?

          If 1650 gold looks more like a base than a top there is enormous value in the juniors.
          Hoping the launch of the Cara Junior Mining 100 at Greenfield Mining Capital is at just the right time for many.

          Sinclair’s TNX.TO/TRX showing persistent strength unusual in the sector
          http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=370
          Disclosure no position

    • Les, could it be Bernank's comment that the U.S. needs... [#106801]
      By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

      Les, could it be Bernank’s comment that the U.S. needs faster growth to soothe unemployment.

      http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/26/us-berna

      Buy gold! ;)

  5. Good morning. 10:00 Pending Home Sales ------ There are... [#106799]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    10:00 Pending Home Sales

    ——

    There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

    ——

    “It is a popular delusion that the government wastes vast amounts of money through inefficiency and sloth. Enormous effort and elaborate planning are required to waste this much money.” ~ P.J. O’Rourke

  6. IFO - BUSINESS CLIMATE Germany for March Actual: 109.8... [#106802]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    IFO – BUSINESS CLIMATE Germany for March
    Actual: 109.8 Cons.: 109.6 Previous: 109.7 Revised from 109.6

    IFO – CURRENT ASSESSMENT Germany for March
    Actual: 117.4 Cons.: 117.0 Previous: 117.4 Revised from 117.5

    IFO – EXPECTATIONS Germany for March
    Actual: 102.7 Cons.: 102.6 Previous: 102.4 Revised from 102.3

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  7. ... [#106803]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  8. Poison Pill? - I learn something new every day defining me... [#106804]
    By: gregdickie (26 comments) Go to top ↑

    Poison Pill? – I learn something new every day defining me as a newbie.

    March 26 (Reuters) – New Gold Inc adopted a new shareholder rights plan with a 20 percent trigger, but the mid-tier Canadian gold miner said it was not aware of any takeover bid.

    A shareholder rights plan, also called poison pill, allows companies to issue new shares if an investor acquires shares over a certain threshold, diluting their holdings.

    The plan is subject to shareholder approval at New Gold’s annual meeting on May 2.

    The Vancouver-based company also said it expects 2012 production of 405,000 ounces to 445,000 ounces.

  9. Property Tax Revolution in North Dakota, Minnesota... [#106807]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

    Property Tax Revolution in North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan; It’s Our Home Not Theirs!

    The North Dakota group, Empower the Taxpayer writes “On June 12, 2012, the voters of North Dakota will have the opportunity to make North Dakota truly ‘Legendary’, as the first to pass a state constitutional amendment that will abolish the property tax, prioritize spending by the legislature, and finally give local governments something they never had: true local control over spending.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

    ——–

    Sounds like a plan.

    Grym

  10. QCOM - estimates, target raised at Morgan Stanley. Shares... [#106808]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    QCOM – estimates, target raised at Morgan Stanley. Shares of QCOM now seen reaching $78, according to Morgan Stanley. Estimates also increased, as new products are driving growth. Overweight rating.

  11. Raymond James Jeff Saut is on board with a positive GDX... [#106809]
    By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

    Raymond James Jeff Saut is on board with a positive GDX trade. In his mornings comments, he notes the grossly oversold metrics of the miners and would use a stop at or slightly below last weeks intraday low of $48 and change.

  12. Interesting Jeff, I was just reading the same thing about... [#106811]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    Interesting Jeff, I was just reading the same thing about equities this morning:

    The sentiment measured by Ned Davis Research (NDR) of crowd pessimism and optimism backs up the peaks and troughs we have been discussing. Periods of time where there is excess optimism are very negative for stocks, and periods where there is a lack of optimism are very positive for stocks. At the peak (in 2000) of 1550, the optimism was over 66.8 (extreme optimism is above 61.5%) at the peak in 2007 (at 1570) it was 69.2% and presently at (1405) we are at 68.2%. At the market trough of 2002 at 770 the optimism was 33.9% (extreme pessimism is under 55.5%) we were at 30.9 % in March of 2009 at 670.

    http://pragcap.com/is-this-a-secular-bear-market

    Of course, Bernanke is pimping equities.

    • Jeff, Glad you posted that Moriarty link, the sentiment... [#106815]
      By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

      Jeff, Glad you posted that Moriarty link, the sentiment extremes may have worked again.
      Some question Moriarty’s paid stock promotions but I think he tries to say how he sees it more often than not.

      What will be intriguing is that with general stocks sentiment at extreme highs, as linked by Les, but with gold/miners sentiment just coming off extreme lows if we get a sell off in stocks will gold and the miners follow down as they always have?
      Some would argue, Kaplan at True Contrarian often does, that the gold miners are extra sensitive leading indicators for stocks generally, so that XAU/HUI weakness bodes badly but correctly for gold and general sotcks.
      This was certainly true in 2008 off the March 2008 high in gold we saw the general deflationary collapse follow until gold and the miners advanced aggressively from their October bottom, Hui 150, ahead of the general market.

      Can this time be any different with gold/miners starting at one extreme of pessimism and general stocks at the other extreme of optimism?
      Can gold and the miners advance contrary to general stocks?
      Or will they both fall together, “risk off”, when a stock turn comes?

      Alternatively there are some much more radical shifts.

      The “Big picture” discusses dramatic yen devaluation, an oft-predicted bursting of the JGB bubble. But this has been wrongly predicted so many times.
      http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/the-yens-loom

      Sinclair, love him or hate him, continues his conviction of dollar troubles below 72 USDX due to reduced dollar use in trade settlement.
      http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/03/25/the-supremacy-

      Bernanke again states the risks of repeating early tightening as in the 1930′s. QE breathes again? Or never stopped if you follow Rickard’s view that maturing paper from QE1/2 is recycled.

      Many continue to point to Europe’s unsustainability. A French election electing a President who says enough austerity, a Spanish leader who perhaps already has. Germany saying enough. Two ways out, exits one by one, or an Exit of a “Northern Euro” leaving the South including France to devalue and print.

      All foretell a race to the bottom of competing currency devaluations and debt default by revaluation.

      Against that seek your store of value.
      Bonds at peak valuations, paper fully denominated in those currencies, surely no store of value, but could they get another kneejerk flight?
      It can be stocks denominated in value – but mustn’t they suffer through the turmoil.
      It might be gold.
      Miners might decouple from general stocks.
      Moolman points to some of the 1970′s great gold miners advances into a declining stock market.

  13. back into china ' cga... [#106812]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    back into china ‘ cga ‘…

  14. I first learned of New Gold from Pierre Lasonde of Franco... [#106813]
    By: papadynamite (446 comments) Go to top ↑

    I first learned of New Gold from Pierre Lasonde of Franco Nevada. He tells a story of how this company, NGD symbol, in Cara 100, is headed to $40 and possibly $70 a share as it turns projects into operational gold mines. It currently has 3 producing mines in Mexico, US, and Australia. The next producing mine will be this July in Canada, the Blackwater Project.. They have millions of ounces in reserves of gold and expect to produce over 400,000 ounces of gold this year. As a comparison, McEwen Mining is a dwarf. I am just starting my in depth research and would appreciate comments from anyone who is knowledgeable on the company. I picked up a few lots this morning in the low $9.50 range. 52 week range is $8.69-$14.15.

    • What I like about Cara site is the amount of ground that is... [#106816]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      What I like about Cara site is the amount of ground that is covered by the community of contributors. NGD looks like a good asset to participate in the resurrection of gold stock ownership.
      http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip633291
      Good interview for your DD. Bought a little just now at $9.45

      • New Gold certainly have an outstanding group of directors... [#106821]
        By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

        New Gold certainly have an outstanding group of directors for a “junior”;
        key industry leaders, Randall Olliphant, ex Barrick, Pierre Lassonde, Franco Nevada, Robert Gallagher, Placer/Newmont, Martyn Konig of European Gold Fields.

        The company is not cheap at $4.3bn.
        $40/$70 targets would value at $17bn-$30bn which is up with the majors.
        Of course a sector wide revaluation against increasing gold prices and reversion to the mean in gold:miners ratios could drive a sector wide revaluation and this team could be favourites.
        http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=ngd

        Stated ambitions are 1 million oz pa production.
        Optimistically $1-$2bn cashflow pa?
        Production has avoided the riskier locations of an Iamgold or Randgold, money may be exiting some of these looking for a good home.

        The company has set out its stall as the “Go to consolidator” and the management team gives some credibility to this.
        “Growth mid-tier consolidator” might be considered the “sweet spot” in a bull market, with some degree of safety due to growth even during weaker phases.
        Here Gallagher puts the case;
        http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/pag

        There are also warrants, one long dated, for the more speculative though with modest leverage unless you believe there can be a radical change by 3rd April!
        http://canadianwarrants.com/values/current.htm

  15. Down big today after stellar report card. An 'activist' who... [#106814]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    Down big today after stellar report card. An ‘activist’ who protested against the company was unfortunately murdered over the weekend and that is tanking the stock big time. Based in Peru with mines in Peru and Mexico and its corporate office in Vancourver, Canada … get some while you can. Conference call tomorrow.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fortuna-reports-2011

    http://www.miningwatch.ca/news/murder-indigenous-o

    • Very sad to hear this tragedy took place. What is most... [#106819]
      By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

      Very sad to hear this tragedy took place.

      What is most disturbing is that Canadians still believe we have the respect and admiration the world over, yet countless Canadian owned or Canadian-backed corporations are complicit in hampering native rights.

      For all the positive things that mining outfits do, these kinds of stories are sickening. Armed gunmen targeted the most visible opponent of the mine in that area, those involved in mining the resource base should be more vocal in both their condemnation and their own plans to ensure opposition can be voiced without fear of reprisal.

    • Stockholder in Fortuna outlines the events, delays and... [#106823]
      By: pulse (324 comments) Go to top ↑

      Stockholder in Fortuna outlines the events, delays and obfuscation demonstrated by this company following the fatality of a miner.

      http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2012/03/fortuna-si

      No position for me here, just an FYI.

      • pulse - This blogger appears to be very sensitive to the... [#106826]
        By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

        pulse -

        This blogger appears to be very sensitive to the issue of death. I am almost afraid to ask what he/she thinks about masked gunmen lighting up a vocal protestor of FSM over the weekend? Is the CEO to blame on the basis of insensitivity for not crying into the microphone at PDAC like an American politician over the third-party miner’s self-inflicted accident?

        Fortuna appears to be guilty until proven innocent of murder on all counts based on the stock price today. Needless to say, nobody would own companies that are a part of the U.S. Industrial Military Complex and whose products are meant to and do kill thousands on an on-going basis, if they thought like that blogger. Am I pig for owning BA?

        Don’t get me wrong, the miner’s accidential death and the protestor’s execution are tragic but outrage against FSM’s CEO Pablo Emilio Escobar Gaviria appears misplaced.

        • Dr. Strangelove; The blogger is quite sensitive to issues... [#106836]
          By: pulse (324 comments) Go to top ↑

          Dr. Strangelove;

          The blogger is quite sensitive to issues surrounding the dealings of many within the junior miners’ complex. He is a loud critic of the regulators, especially the Venture Exchange here in Toronto. He is also a voice of contrary opinion to the standard Lat-Am disinformation provided by North American outlets of ‘news.’

          I do not like the blogger’s anonymous front. However, for me, he has demonstrated the methods of ‘pump and dump’ especially prominent in the juniors, he directly attacks the promo jobs performed by Casey Research, Porter Stansberry, Bill Bonner et al, and he has helped me avoid losses on holdings. I believe he ruffled feathers here with his take on McEwen, and he regularly snubs Mr. Gold – Sinclair.

          In trying to avoid the herd mentality – that blogger is one of my regular stops to avoid trapping myself in the precious metals ‘cult’ as well as a view from South America on current events.

          I am of the opinion that discovering performers is not merely about exploiting resources and people. The moral fibre of an organization should be its greatest, unwavering asset – not subject to dilution, depletion or deprecitation. A sincere dedication to respect, to the needs of all stakeholders will most often result in goodwill and a pursuit of happiness.

          Having said that, I am far too aware that the ends justify the means in most boardrooms and halls of power. Ruled by easy money (created from no man’s efforts or visions) and dominant sociopathic expectations, this is the new normal and I reject it, eternally.

          Cheers,
          pulse

  16. Poised to move higher... [#106817]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Poised to move higher IMHO.

    • ea32da32 - I like SQM's golden cross on the 50/200 MAs on... [#106820]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      ea32da32 -

      I like SQM’s golden cross on the 50/200 MAs on the daily chart on March 12th for a breakout play. POT owns a huge share of this company which is globally diversified and based in stable pro business Chile. Better upside proxy for POT with an ambiguous range-bound chart since August of last year. Note the low volume on POT. Not a good sign for a breakout in such a large company.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

      Type in SQM. Now, type in SLW and note that the same golden cross is in place with a beatdown thereafter on the daily. Got silver, nitrates, iodine and lithium?!

  17. Tim Price And Don... [#106818]
    By: szoya (114 comments) Go to top ↑

    Tim Price And Don Coxe:
    http://tinyurl.com/bngn3eg

  18. RGR demand way outpaces supply as reported last week. As... [#106822]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    RGR demand way outpaces supply as reported last week. As Martha Stewart, the former floor trader, always says, “That’s a good thing.”

    RGR oversold. Look at RGR:SWHC

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

  19. TLT does not reflect a strong rotation out of bonds today... [#106825]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    TLT does not reflect a strong rotation out of bonds today. Could the dollar holding 78-79 range be in the tell here? Just thinking out loud…

    FD: picked up more MUX, NGD and FCX last week..

  20. Argex hit another 52 week high . http://tinyurl.com/6p2k38z... [#106828]
    By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

    Argex hit another 52 week high . http://tinyurl.com/6p2k38z Holdings Summary , http://tinyurl.com/c4bykrv

  21. ... [#106832]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  22. what the heck just happened? at 15:02 eastern that 6000... [#106834]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    what the heck just happened?

    at 15:02 eastern that 6000 share sell order knew something.

    • someone called a short on this - there is NO news anywhere... [#106838]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      someone called a short on this – there is NO news anywhere I can find. Out at $3.30 and not going to play around with this kind of stuff. $100 loss and goodby, adieu, adios, arrivederci…

      • Thanks for the note Earl. I bought this morning at 3.41 and... [#106839]
        By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

        Thanks for the note Earl. I bought this morning at 3.41 and … that move down at 2pm just didn’t look so friendly, especially with GDXJ up +4.3%. I sold right before market close. Maybe we’ll find out what the story was.

        • You're very welcome Dave - the daily chart really 'did not'... [#106841]
          By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

          You’re very welcome Dave – the daily chart really ‘did not’ look that good to me, there was a buy signal on my 3dma/10dma short term last tuesday – it just didn’t work out. I’ve been moving toward golden cross type signals for a while and trying to stay away from these bounces along the bottom. my error -good lesson.

      • Earl; I have owned Rubicon for some time now. My habit is... [#106840]
        By: pulse (324 comments) Go to top ↑

        Earl;

        I have owned Rubicon for some time now. My habit is to not sell on weakness, though this is often full of pain.

        FYI, on the Toronto exchange, 13.5 million shares were traded at 3:38 PM for 3.20-3.22 Candos.

        pulse

    • But the most actively traded individual stock was Rubicon... [#106845]
      By: arjay (29 comments) Go to top ↑

      But the most actively traded individual stock was Rubicon Minerals (RMX.TO), which lost more than 3% and fell nearer to a year low $3.05 with more than 15 million shares traded amid Internet chat that GMP was dumping unsold inventory

      Apparently GMP Securities was /is having trouble moving the shares acquired in the financing announced below on Feb. 6th.

      Rubicon Minerals Corp Announces $200 Million Bought Deal Financing
      Monday, 6 Feb 2012 07:35am EST

      Rubicon Minerals Corp announced that it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by GMP Securities L.P. and TD Securities Inc., which has agreed to purchase, on a bought deal basis, 49,000,000 common shares of the Company at a price of $4.10 per Share, for aggregate gross proceeds of $200,900,000. The Underwriters will also have the option, exercisable in whole or in part at any time up to 30 days after the closing of the offering, to purchase up to an additional 7,350,000 Shares. In the event that the option is exercised in its entirety, the aggregate gross proceeds of the offering will be $231,035,000.

  23. After reading this I took a position in FSLR. I think it... [#106837]
    By: rosevillebill (150 comments) Go to top ↑

    After reading this I took a position in FSLR. I think it had a buy alert a few days ago.

    http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/123719-mit-stac

  24. Now down to 0.37 bought small position at 0.60 when first... [#106844]
    By: johnuk (867 comments) Go to top ↑

    Now down to 0.37 bought small position at 0.60 when first listed,dropped another 10% today ouch,very speculative but I will still wait for drill results
    sometime in April.

  25. Have been in and out in last year or so but holding now... [#106846]
    By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

    Have been in and out in last year or so but holding now. Looking for the longer term, with hope. Believing PHYS is as close as I can get to physical as an American without paying a 20% premium.

    • Illini - "Believing PHYS is as close as I can get to... [#106847]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      Illini -

      “Believing PHYS is as close as I can get to physical as an American without paying a 20% premium.”

      You can buy most physical for well under 10% to spot at Liberty Coin or Tulving. U.S. Gov’t allows holding gold or silver eagles in your retirement account if you’re referring to the 15% early withdrawal penalty. 20%?!

  26. @upsidetrader: TBTF Get TBTFer: Top 5 Banks Hold 95.7%, Or... [#106849]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    @upsidetrader: TBTF Get TBTFer: Top 5 Banks Hold 95.7%, Or $221 Trillion, Of Outstanding Derivatives | ZeroHedge http://t.co/F1zfAT12

    I post this because they use the T word. What the, who the… uses trillions in their discussion? Quantum physics? What’s all this crazy talk about 707 trillion dollars in dirivative swapps, may as well hit the giggatetrabetamega numbers, this is getting… Stupid!

  27. Fred Sheehan, a brilliant and keen observer of everything... [#106850]
    By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

    Fred Sheehan, a brilliant and keen observer of everything historical and a serial basher of Greenspan and the Bernak has a post you may access on safehaven.com.

    He possesses a Rabelaisain wit which coupled with a keen insight makes him a ‘must read’ in my opinion. You will at least appreciate what I would term ‘Real Estate bubbles from the past” from LA, Chigago, Kansas City and New York in the late 19th century and including the Florida boom/bust in the mid 20′s and —again—the New York commercial bubble ala 1930.

    Enjoy.

    • Hi Ilya, nice site. Good read, you could cut the love Fred... [#106851]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Ilya, nice site. Good read, you could cut the love Fred has for Ben with a spoon. In the late 80,s they broke ground close to home on Bay Oaks Country Club. One of my very best friends told me of a deal they offered him, $10k for a membership limited to 500, then after 5 years they would rebate half of that. In the mid 90′s we watched as people from California cashed out their homes and bought these 5 to 10ksqft homes along the fairways, Phil knew every inch of the place, where the hottys were…and the Cali people could not even afford to put furniture in the home but there they were in these fine homes. But the taxes ate their lunch so toward the end of the 90′s quite a few of the homes were without occupants, 2001 was not much help but the course was so good that a membership (only 500 and will never change) was running 50k if someone died and you had the opportunity to secure one. Anyway, today the place looks like millions everywhere, after Phil passed Maryann kept their membership, I’ve no clue the value today since its basically closed. My point is there are little boom and bust cycles going on all around us at all times. Even here in the Clear Lake/Nasa Bay area of Houston there are booms going on, gearing up for the time in 2016 I’d not want to be a longshoreman along the west coast, when half of chinas ships will bypass them and come here directly. How that will effect east/west rail action is anyone’s guess.

      I’ll hang onto that site, looks like some other good potential.

      Thanks
      Earl

  28. "Men, it has well been said, think in herds; it will be... [#106852]
    By: loannetter (1298 comments) Go to top ↑

    “Men, it has well been said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds; while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

  29. ... [#106853]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
    • I believe you have your facts right Les, that makes such... [#106855]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      I believe you have your facts right Les, that makes such good sense.

      I’d say changing the verbiage in the recent EO was timely. I’d have to assume there are martial law implementation plans, probably updated routinely.

      • dunno about facts Earl. Just trying to iron out... [#106856]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        dunno about facts Earl. Just trying to iron out probabilities and likelihoods. Just an intellectual exercise. And there are elements of policy that even ardent supporters of RP should understand as misleading.

        • No, your facts are correct, those that support your... [#106858]
          By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

          No, your facts are correct, those that support your reasoning, easy for me to follow. Your conclusions make sense.

          Your paul related link was next on my list;-)

          PS – thanks for the long read. I think I read in my sleep these days, it seems that’s about all I do; I bought a program to read to me while I do other things but the uptake lacks a bit and I wind up reading the thing anyhow…

          there are many things to the MMT I already understood but didn’t realize there was something out there that addressed it this way. I believe the bottom line for me personally is if there is no basis other then adding zeros to the bank account then they will play favorits; it all becomes one big holiday for them with the connections, the opposite experiance for the rest of us.

  30. Hawaii official now swears: No Obama birth certificate... [#106884]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hawaii official now swears: No Obama birth certificate http://www.wnd.com/2011/01/254401/

    what the hell is in their bathwater?