Bill Cara’s Blog for Mar 21, 2012
CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[9:15am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.
I was talking to a long time trader friend last night. He has more than my 2 decades of experience and we both agreed that these types of markets are tough to trade. I mentioned that weeks ago I started writing about the possibility of a runaway stock market that may end in a climax top. My reasoning was that the liquidity that had been added to the system could be the driver behind that type of move. I told him that even though I had the foresight to envision the move that the market eventually did make, it was still hard to trade.
Why would a market that seems to go straight up be hard to trade? Because over decades of trading you will make a lot of mistakes. Those mistakes are the cost of staying in the business – if you don’t pay the piper a number of times arrogance will kill you in the end because you end up getting sucked into either the greed or fear death spiral.
I would call today’s market a greedy one.
What you learn over time is to continue to trade in a prudent manner. For us that means taking gains on sell signals. By continuing to trade without emotion, we will avoid losing all of our gains when the market corrects – and the market always corrects. Corrections following melt-ups can be fierce to the downside and need to be avoided, but going to all cash means that you will miss the final climax top that could be coming.
Because we have remained long, our growth strategy is up double digits year-to-date and we don’t want to give up all of those gains and hard work should the market move sharply lower. In the end, true performance is measured over a complete market cycle.
The odds are increasing that gold and silver will rally. Maybe that rally will start as stocks make that final move higher before their eventual decline. That is a pretty good bet, but continue to watch prices on your longs and get ready to take gains should it make sense to do so.
Pigs get slaughtered regardless of how fat they have become.
Have a great trading day!
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
|Symbol||Name||Last Trade||Change||Related Info|
||40.65 (1.86%)||Components, Chart, More|
||4.72 (0.20%)||Components, Chart, More|
||6.63 (0.19%)||Components, Chart, More|
||9.50 (0.13%)||Components, Chart, More|
||1.65 (0.50%)||Components, Chart, More|
|^OSEAX||OSE All Share||485.93
||0.39 (0.08%)||Components, Chart, More|
||1.04 (0.30%)||Components, Chart, More|
||15.41 (0.24%)||Components, Chart, More|
||2.81 (0.05%)||Components, Chart, More|
||2.60 (0.26%)||Chart, More|
||0.92 (0.06%)||Chart, More|
|GD.AT||Athex Composite Share Price Index||769.06
||12.82 (1.64%)||Chart, More|
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
Cara on Trends & Cycles
Vad’s Catch of the Day
Kaimu’s Sound Money
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report
Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth
Was Obama really born in the United States?: The Anatomy of a Conspiracy
This is old hat to many readers of both mainstream and underground news sites.
This article from a Russian website is intended for english readers, their motives are in service of the Russian intelligence services, not the truth or objectivity.
It possesses all the hallmarks of conspiracy lunacy: poorly written, attempts to use big words to appear legitimate and claims no one else is reporting this story which is not true as evidenced by this CBS piece.
In addition the claim that this revelation is new or unique, (which is not true) ignores the reality of this being old news. The reason conspiracy theories like these proliferate is because most agents of proliferation drink each other’s bathwater: not a single piece of new info is presented here or in subsequent stories, just the same stuff recycled over and over.
The central premise of this Pravda piece: the person making the accusation (Joe Arpaio) is a “serious and respected” law official when in fact this sherrif is considered the most controversial sheriff in the US, he has been indicted several times for corruption, tampering with evidence, evading investigations and racial profiling.
My feeling on this whole issue like many others in the sphere is that the birth certificate could in fact be a fake; it’s not impossible. To date there is no credible evidence to suggest the President of the USA is lying about his place of birth.
If it is revealed to be true, the odds are it was an elaborate forgery discovered by investigators using sound science and deductive reasoning, not the rantings of the lunatic fringe. Their claims rest on the foundation of racial discomfort with a black president of foreign born parents or dislike of democrats and most likley a willingness to believe in fairy tales.
This is no different from sightings of Elvis and bigfoot- It gives people hope, but not the good kind. This type of reporting is akin to never telling your child there is no santa claus when they get older, after a while it’s a bit sad they haven’t grown up and figured it out.
Stay thirsty friends, but don’t drink the kool aid.