Bill Cara’s Blog for Jun 29, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Bailout for the banks of Spain and Italy is the news of the morning, pushing the Euro, commodities, precious metals and equities higher across the board, but especially in the Banks. How long it remains a green day depends on trader confidence that Europe’s financial system can stabilize.

blog12_jun_29.1.gif

Only Barclays Bank (LSE:BARC) is in the red this morning, and rightfully so. The stock is down over -35% in about 100 days as regulators and traders are concerned about their bad behavior, which executive management is trying to pin on a few bad apples. Same old, same old.

blog12_jun_29.3.gif


Good morning, Geoff here.

Yesterday’s last hour ramp in the S&P should have told us that something positive was happening in the markets and that the news was leaked.

Apparently, work was actually done at the summit as an agreement was made to rescue troubled banks as Merkel bowed to market pressure. I say “apparently” because I am reading some conflicting statements following the news release that puts doubt into an actual deal. Yes, we have expected this all along, but until documents are signed there may still be grumbling from Germany and doubt that the steps will be taken. Regardless, these steps are simply short-term measures to keep the contagion from spreading into the global banking system. These short-term deals are like putting a band aid on a hemophiliac’s cut – eventually, the real problem will become obvious again and without going to the hospital and taking ALL of the corrective medicine, death will occur.

The global financial system is in real trouble and the only way out that is politically palatable is for global central bankers to provide whatever liquidity is needed. That is why we are bullish gold and other commodities long-term. The same inflationary pressures that will move commodities higher will also flow into equities with the more fundamentally strong stocks performing best.

The problem with these short-term measures is that they don’t fix the real problem. Yes, we are going to make money during this next move higher, but that doesn’t mean that the real problems have been fixed and eventually, the market will catch on to that fact and worry will enter again. The massive pile of debt needs to be worked off, not added to, but that is a long term issue.

For the moment, it looks like what we wrote yesterday is occurring with the US Dollar topping and commodities finding support amidst the negative sentiment. I have been stressing energy stocks for a week or so and they will get going today as Crude is up about 3.5% right now and the S&P is up almost 2% as shorts are exiting positions.

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Here are very overweight energy and material stocks right now. Here are two current holdings:

[inline:ggimage04_062912.png]

[inline:ggimage05_062912.png]

We shall see if this “risk-on” environment can last more than a few days – news can and probably will come out of Europe this weekend so don’t get too bullish just yet, but fingers are crossed.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 1,928.37 6:44AM EDT Up 43.57 (2.31%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,177.00 3:28AM EDT Up 37.80 (1.77%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,136.66 6:59AM EDT Up 84.98 (2.78%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,297.93 6:45AM EDT Up 148.02 (2.41%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General N/A 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 452.90 6:44AM EDT Up 8.36 (1.88%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 311.18 6:44AM EDT Up 7.38 (2.43%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,045.40 6:44AM EDT Up 58.55 (0.98%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,564.41 6:44AM EDT Up 71.35 (1.30%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 892.80 6:59AM EDT Up 12.20 (1.39%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,378.75 7:00AM EDT Up 35.41 (2.64%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 610.64 6:44AM EDT Up 32.33 (5.59%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara 100 Company research notes from brokers


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


Deron’s Daily ETF Analysis

A quick technical analysis review of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite should provide a compelling visual as to the strength of yesterday’s reversal, which broadly carried msot ETFs with hit.

In the first half of the trading session, the S&P 500 quickly lost support of its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) yesterday, and appeared ready to test key near-term support of its four-day low. However, after setting the intraday low near the 2:30 pm reversal period, the S&P rallied in the final hour of trading to close near the day’s high. This formed a bullish “reversal bar” candlestick on the daily chart, but with little relevance given the choppy, indecisive trading range of late. From here, the next near-term resistance levels for the index will be found at the two-day high of 1,334, followed by resistance of the 50-day moving average (MA) at the 1,340 area and June “swing high” around 1,364.

SPX

The Nasdaq Composite also recovered strongly yesterday. Initially, the Nasdaq appeared to be in big trouble when it fell through key support of its four-day low. However, the tech-rich index also turned tail to close near session highs. The Nasdaq should now find resistance at its 20-day EMA (the 2,862 area), the two-day high (2,882), and 50-day EMA (2,897) and the June 20th “swing high” of 2,942.

Nasdaq

As the charts above illustrate, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 still face formidable overhead resistance and price supply to contend with. Nevertheless, yesterday’s price action suggests to us that market bears may be on the verge of ceding control…at least for a while. Overall, recent weeks can be summarized as a tug-of-war between the bull bears, with neither team showing convincing dominance. Obviously, this has made it challenging to allow solid technical swing trade setups to follow through in either direction for more than a day or two. Nevertheless, we have been riding the volatility pretty well, eeking out small profits on both sides of the market, while keeping a primary focus on capital preservation. We simply must take what the market gives us…and lately, that hasn’t been much (at least for technical swing traders). Although the timing model is on a sell signal we are simply one “follow through-day” away from generating a buy signal. With this in mind, we are willing to establish a few long positions with reduced share size, risking about $200 per trade (based on our $50,000 model trading account).

Yesterday provides an excellent case for why we ignore the news. Early in the session, the “talking heads” were clamoring that the market was sinking due to “the Supreme Court’s decision on health care reform.” However, by the closing bell, the market had staged an impressive bullish reversal. Was this reversal also a result of the Supreme Court’s decision on health care reform? News doesn’t drive the market, the market drives the news. The news media merely observe what happens in the market and then create a story in an attempt to provide an explanation. Why does there have to be an explanation? That’s why we just follow the tape.

The commentary above is an excerpt from The Wagner Daily newsletter, which we have been publishing since 2002. Subscribers to the full version receive our exact entry and exit prices for swing trades of the top ETF and stock picks, access to our market timing model, and more. To get started today, sign up for your 30-day risk-free trial to our Wagner Daily trading newsletter or visit our trading blog to learn more about our proven technical trading strategy.


OptionOracle


Harp’s Roadmap


Cara on the Metalminers


Cara on the International Markets


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays 9:45 AM ET... [#110653]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays
    • 9:45 AM ET Chicago PMI
    • 9:55 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
  2. 5 in Buy alert 1 in Distribution Zone 4 in Sell... [#110654]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 5 in Buy alert
    • 1 in Distribution Zone
    • 4 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone (13%): Monthly 11, Weekly 22, Daily 7
    Distribution Zone (6%): Monthly 9, Weekly 5, Daily 4

  3. RETAIL SALES (YOY) Germany for May Actual: -1.1%Cons.:... [#110656]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    RETAIL SALES (YOY) Germany for May
    Actual: -1.1%Cons.: 1.0%Previous: -4.3%

    KOF LEADING INDICATOR Switzerland for June
    Actual: 1.16Cons.: 0.85Previous: 0.80

    M3 MONEY SUPPLY (YOY) EMU for May
    Actual: 2.9%Cons.: 2.3%Previous: 2.5%

    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) EMU for June
    Actual: 2.4%Cons.: 2.4%Previous: 1.9%

    BOE FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT
    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/

    HOUSING STARTS (YOY) Japan for May
    Actual: 9.3%Cons.: 6.7%Previous: 10.3%

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  4. Good morning. Happy Stomp Nike Day. 08:30 Personal... [#110655]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning. Happy Stomp Nike Day.

    08:30 Personal Income/Spending
    08:30 PCE Prices – Core
    09:45 Chicago PMI
    09:55 Michigan Sentiment – Final

    ——

    BBBY – Bed Bath & Beyond upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T. Price target $75.

    CAT – Caterpillar downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James citing end market headwinds, moderating demand, increased capacity, and backlog risk. Price target lowered to $95 from $130.

    NKE – Nike downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sterne Agee citing the disappointing Q1 report and guidance.

    NKE – Downgraded to Neutral @ Davidson. PT Lowered from $123 to $93

    NKE – Downgraded to Neutral @ Robert W Baird. PT Lowered from $130 to $95

    ORCL – Oracle upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital citing improved visibility into Q1, growth outlook, and better understanding into FX impact. Price target raised to $36 from $33.

    TTM – Tata Motors downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies.

    ——

    “The king has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent Swarms of Officers to harass our People and eat out their substance.” ~ U.S. Declaration of Independence

  5. ... [#110657]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/commo

    —————-

    Against this article I wish to place the following link, for a spot of weekend deliberation. A lot I agree with in this vid. Some of it is pie in the sky stuff. Some of it could be worded differently. But for the most part I think it is a solid starting ground for thought and discussion on new alternatives and possibilities:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEZkQv25uEs&feature

  6. CELG - Upgraded to Buy @ Argus... [#110658]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    CELG – Upgraded to Buy @ Argus. $75

  7. Looks like the gold and oil shorts are running for cover... [#110659]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

    Looks like the gold and oil shorts are running for cover. Jury is still out on silver.

    Did someone say “no euro collapse today?”

    • ... [#110660]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
      • Not really, however, volume was light in pre-market on most... [#110661]
        By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

        Not really, however, volume was light in pre-market on most oils/metals… maybe play a 1/2 % pull back from pre-market highs ( and bounce )…?

        • I'd guess some decent percentage of folks who were short... [#110680]
          By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

          I’d guess some decent percentage of folks who were short oil coming into today have covered. Up $7 on big volume. There was a big volume spike in the futures as it hit 85.30 – perhaps that was the target level to trip a bunch of stops. They run it down as far as they can, and then they switch direction and run it up.

          It also looks like silver’s move yesterday down to test 26.20 was a head fake. Again.

          Is it all about selling puts, then making them worthless? I considered writing a few, but I wasn’t that brave.

          I don’t think anything is truly solved in europe, but it seems as if it won’t collapse this weekend.

          • Davefairtex, As I observe Europe, it seems to be a game of... [#110697]
            By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

            Davefairtex,

            As I observe Europe, it seems to be a game of chicken with a pre-determined winner already….”the status quo being the winner”…..of course that is a BIG genralization, but explaing a little further it appears to be a balancing act between political expediency and financial collapse….the headlines we read in “news-speak”, appears to be “noise combined with wrangling.” Blame shifting and positioning. I wonder which banks will be “in the room” as Bill has mentioned before, as the landscape is carved up between failures and winners?

            Merkel will slowly cave and the headlines will be used to either skewer her and serve her up as a sacrificed lamb, or shift focus away from her and allow her to continue to be the figure head of the financial wizards behind the scenes.

  8. For those of you who were asking if my live workshop at the... [#110664]
    By: Deron Wagner (77 comments) Go to top ↑

    For those of you who were asking if my live workshop at the Dallas Traders Expo last month was recorded and would be available online, I just received notice that MoneyShow.com has put the entire presentation online for on-demand playback.

    The workshop is titled “My Top Three Stock and ETF Swing Trading Setups: How to Quickly and Easily Find the Best Trade Entries.” Specific types of trades discussed were Relative Strength Breakouts, Pullbacks, and Trend Reversals.

    For anyone interested in watching it, the following post on my blog will allow you to access this comprehensive and educational presentation:

    http://blog.morpheustrading.com/1503

    Enjoy.

  9. INFY - Infosys downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at... [#110663]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    INFY – Infosys downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Macquarie.

    NKE – estimates, target reduced at Credit Suisse. NKE estimates were cut through 2013. Company is realizing lower margins. Neutral rating and new $93 price target.

    NKE – Nike numbers cut at UBS. Shares of NKE now seen reaching $99. Estimates also lowered as worrisome China and gross margins reflect global challenges. Buy rating.

    TTM – Downgraded to Neutral from Buy @ Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

    WFM – target boosted at BMO to $105. Sales remain robust and the clear market leader deserves a premium valuation.

    WMT – target raised at Citigroup to $78. Well positioned to benefit in current macro environment. Buy rating.

  10. 73.2 in June vs 79.3 in May ------ I'll be using this... [#110665]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    73.2 in June vs 79.3 in May

    ——

    I’ll be using this rally to lighten up on some long positions….not trusting this rally or EU Officials. Economic numbers are still horrible. Good luck to all.

    ——

    Additional Note: Dow has been down 8 of last 9 Mondays, 4 of which were triple-digit declines. This, of course, doesn’t mean that the markets will be down on 7/2 but reality does seem to set in on Mondays of late.

    • Oil: + $ 4.46.... so much for that retail/housing... [#110666]
      By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

      Oil: + $ 4.46…. so much for that retail/housing recovery… But, with these markets, I fell pretty sure that we might hear ‘ higher gas prices means there is more confidence of a global recovery ‘… gotta love it.. !

    • ... [#110667]
      By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑
      • Hi Luggie, I'm a small businessman as are many of my... [#110669]
        By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

        Hi Luggie,

        I’m a small businessman as are many of my friends. To a man, my small businessman friends have been waiting for the SCOTUS decision on ObamaCare before deciding on any hiring/business expansion. They will now postpone any expansion until the November election results are in.

        I expect economic numbers to deteriorate until the election, or depending on the results, for years. Hope I’m wrong.

        Regards,
        BH

  11. ... [#110668]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT:$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50639905861

    Looking pretty solid after a nice consolidation since February. RSI(14) for $RUT:$SPX is meaningfully above 50 for the first time since our Nov11-Feb12 rally. Small caps appear set to outperform for awhile in my opinion.

    • Right-on Vad.... and exactly why I've decided to learn how... [#110686]
      By: Billinbc (21 comments) Go to top ↑

      Right-on Vad…. and exactly why I’ve decided to learn how to become a “Reality Trader” day trader.Plugs are not shameless if they come from a client, no?

  12. WAG reminds me of HD when B.N. left the CEO position... big... [#110672]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    WAG reminds me of HD when B.N. left the CEO position… big changes coming, and like the dividend boost.

    • Baz, WAG looks solid to me long-term. I liked it a few... [#110674]
      By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

      Baz, WAG looks solid to me long-term. I liked it a few bucks higher too though :-) It’s just a steady low margin business with a solid model (I believe they lease all of their real estate). In my neck of the woods however CVS has recently come through wreaking competitive havoc and putting up stores near Walgreen to directly compete. WAG also has the dispute with Express Scripts that is causing indegestion in the near-term.

      Long-term, I think people will always need a convenience store and I think WAG store size will survive better than bigger box retailers. I think the Express Scripts issue eventually gets resolved. Even if there is not significant earnings growth in the near term, the company should continue to generate a nice chunk of positive free cash flow to back the dividend and minimal debt. At almost a 4% yield and a P/E of 10 based on next years earnings, I think this one will pay you to wait and offers a solid floor in the way of dividend and minimal debt.

  13. Following up on my post from a couple of days ago, take a... [#110673]
    By: worthcap (152 comments) Go to top ↑

    Following up on my post from a couple of days ago, take a look at these charts. XLE held the double bottom and has rallied up to the 50 MA, XEC has really rocketed to a clean breakout, WLL has also outperformed off the bottom with a clean break of the down trendline, COSWF has lagged – all four of these have turned their daily charts so that the SAR is operating on a buy. Looking around and screening the commodity ETF’s DBC has turned it’s weekly chart so the SAR is operating on a buy. Unless this is a super paint job (hypothesis #1) these all have room to the upside if they turn the monthly chart up next week with a print above the June SPX high at 1363 (hypothesis #2).

    Positions – DBC, COSWF, WLL (trailed the stop too close on XEC)

  14. Apart from Bernie, who "made-off" with the money the old... [#110676]
    By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

    Apart from Bernie, who “made-off” with the money the old fashioned way, hasn’t it been just two “brown guys” heading to jail in the aftermath of the financial crisis? (one Sri Lankan and one Indian). How can this be?

    Obviously, it’s because the white guys have all behaved SO WELL !!!

    • As Mr. Sanford might say ' I resemble that remark '... [#110677]
      By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

      As Mr. Sanford might say ‘ I resemble that remark ‘ !!

      • i stand corrected: 2 white ponzis and 2 more "modern" brown... [#110681]
        By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

        i stand corrected: 2 white ponzis and 2 more “modern” brown scamsters … but what about all the white bankers? – why no perp walks there ?

        • Because half the field for all the annual Member-Guest golf... [#110682]
          By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

          Because half the field for all the annual Member-Guest golf outings would be gone…!

    • LOL ... why only Encana got scrutinized and not Chesapeake... [#110679]
      By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

      LOL … why only Encana got scrutinized and not Chesapeake for colluding land deal ….

  15. http://is.gd/a7ZDC8 ------ Funniest thing I've seen all... [#110684]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://is.gd/a7ZDC8

    ——

    Funniest thing I’ve seen all day….

  16. IB offers unallocated gold and silver bullion via the TWS... [#110685]
    By: Foreign-Gal (17 comments) Go to top ↑

    IB offers unallocated gold and silver bullion via the TWS platform. Symbols XAUUSD and XAGUSD. Buy/sell fee 0.0015% min $2.00 storage 0.10%/year

    The fees are very reasonable. Does anyone care to offer an informed opinion on this product.

    The main risks are

    (1) IB UK is the counterparty to the Precious Metal trades, you are exposed to the financial and business risks, including credit risk, associated with dealing with IB UK.

    (2) IB UK has custodial arrangement(s) with third party Precious Metals Custodians for storage of unallocated Precious Metals on a net basis for IB UK. Precious Metals held in an unallocated account are not segregated from IB UK’s or its Precious Metals Custodian’s assets, and Precious Metals credited to an unallocated account represent only the dealer’s obligation to deliver Precious Metals and do not constitute ownership of any specific lots of Precious Metals.

    Obviously the risks are higher than physically holding the bullion in your hand or storing bullion in a segregated account. However, for trading purposes the fees are hard to beat.

    Opinions are appreciated.

    • Play with fire and you might get burned Sprott gold... [#110687]
      By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

      Play with fire and you might get burned

      Sprott gold… PHYS… stores their allocated segregated and numbered holdings at the Royal Canadian Mint.

      GTU, similar to PHYS, has their allocated holdings stored at a major bank vault in Toronto.

      Both have no third parties involved.

      • Thank you MoKat. I hold a bit of PHYS and consider it safer... [#110688]
        By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

        Thank you MoKat. I hold a bit of PHYS and consider it safer than GLD even though I am US. Its a hedge and an investment.

  17. ... [#110690]
    By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑
    • ... [#110691]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
      • ALOHA!! If some resource is provided without limit, it... [#110692]
        By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

        ALOHA!!

        If some resource is provided without limit, it will be used to its maximum, especially if someone can get rich while doing so.

        You mean like Congress and debt? It just gets more and more absurd every time I see the phrase “debt ceiling”! This “ceiling” is now 70 years old …

        I have a shocking revelation in the next SOUND MONEY about ObamaCare. Well, I have a few of them! You really do not have to drill down too deep into research to find evidence of unending fraud. Thanks to the internet it can be done rather quickly. For that reason I fear for the access of internet based information under a more critical political power crisis.

        Think about healthcare and this Congress sponsored “social safety net” for a minute, but think about it clearly in a big picture sort of way. Most of us pay for a service directly and we get the benefits of that service within a short time frame. For instance a hair cut. I pay the hair stylist $20 and I get a hair cut within 30 minutes of payment. Same goes for a car mechanic or food service at McDonalds. Yet here we are trusting citizens paying for old age medical care 40 years before actually qualifying for the service. In the 1970s I was having social security and medicare taken out of my paycheck every week. I did not receive the service I was paying for as some other 65 year old was. The government has separated the payer from the recipient by a huge time interval. Think of this scenario. You go into Sears and you want a tuneup done on your car. They charge you $300, you pay it and then the Sears sales rep says, “Come back in 40 years and your car will be ready!” Me personally I would trust the Sears sales rep more than I would trust my Congressman, but on the other hand will Sears still be in business 40 years from now? My Congressman will be dead but Congress will still be around, hopefully not in the same ethical way it is now. However with ObamaCare or MittCare or any kind of public funded healthcare government is separating the payer from the recipient of that service. I think that is a dangerous and fraudulent set up. If you did not pay 100% of the medical service you are receiving why would you care about the cost? Isn’t it obvious by now that Congress does not care about cost? So if Congress does not care and the recipient does not care then why should the medical provider care? Does the EBT food shopper care about who paid for their EBT card? Does Safeway or Whole Foods or WalMart care about who paid for the EBT card? Does Congress care about the EBT cost? Every Congressman only cares about staying in office and retaining political power. The cost of government is irrelevant to them in the grand scheme of things since there is no monetary brakes on the system any more. Money is a mouse click … Come on … we’re a Nation of NIMBYs!! Terrible Twos as everything is MY-ME-MINE!!!

        The US DEBT is rising at a rate of more than $1.3TRIL per year! Go look at “net debt” at the US Treasury Statement. On June 26th it was at $998.76BIL USD. Almost $1TRIL in less than nine months time! The EU debt is laughable compared to the US Congress debt binge! Take a look at the link below and look closely for the year 1971 …

        LINK: http://futuretimeline.net/subject/images/us-debt-g

        Still it is just another example of how dangerous Congress has become thanks to a corrupt monetary system. Combine the creation of the US FED in 1913 and Keynes and the human condition and from a debt aspect it makes a nuclear bomb look like a firecracker! Its just been a disastrous consequence for the average global citizen since 1971. The “constitutional veneer” that protects our Rights is getting thinner by the day! You can directly attribute that “thinning veneer” to the quality of our money.

      • ... [#110695]
        By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
        • "Nobody needs go without emergency care under the present... [#110700]
          By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

          “Nobody needs go without emergency care under the present system. They are often stretched to the limit in ER, but under the new full-coverage (yeah, sure) we will all get less care at greater cost. When has any government solution worked?”

          The interstate highways sure seem to be helpful. The people who were able to bring electricity and water to their homes thanks to projects like the TVA would probably have a disagreement with this statement.

          ER care is the most costly form of medical care available. It’s baffling to me that anyone would try to make the argument that having access to health care through the ER is a solution that makes any kind of sense.

          • CS, "ER care is the most costly form of medical care... [#110702]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

            CS,

            “ER care is the most costly form of medical care available. It’s baffling to me that anyone would try to make the argument that having access to health care through the ER is a solution that makes any kind of sense.”

            ObamaCare will be far more costly than the current ER, regardless that it is an inefficient use of staff.

            There Is absolutely no need to cover ever ailment in 100% of the people. Because I was self-employed I seldom missed a day of work even when not feeling up to par. My neighbor was a Postal Service employee and routinely took his sick days to work at the family nursery planting trees. Multiply this by millions of people.

            Grym

          • The plural of anecdote is not data. I'm sorry but you are... [#110703]
            By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

            The plural of anecdote is not data. I’m sorry but you are simply misinformed regarding the ACA. I see a lot of glibertarians here seem to be very troubled by the ACA but they also seem to be misinformed, either willfully or otherwise.

            I use my PTO days to attend events at my son’s elementary school.
            What does that translate to if millions do it? Kids who feel appreciated and cared for?

          • ... [#110712]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
          • That was not a personal attack, simply a refutation of a... [#110719]
            By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

            That was not a personal attack, simply a refutation of a fact free, biased and baseless assertion.
            Thanks.

          • CS I need to join this discussion. I live in MA, said to... [#110729]
            By: bigmother (124 comments) Go to top ↑

            CS

            I need to join this discussion. I live in MA, said to be the model of the AFA. Well, it is comsuming our state budget. From the Boston Globe, Jan 3,2011 “Health care spending, most of which is for Medicaid, now accounts for 37 percent of the state budget, up from 21 percent in 2000″ and from the MA Division of Health Care May 2012 report “The results of the premiums and TME analyses yield two critical findings. First, premiums and claims expenditures continue to grow faster than inflation, though the growth rate has slowed in recent years.” To think the national plan will have a different outcome from the MA experiment is burying your head in the sand. We have lots of Federal money coming in because the Fed’s don’t want it to fail. But, even with the extra $$ we still can’t afford it and they are already talking about cutting services. If you’d like the links I can provide them.

            I am no fan of Romney even without the MA mandate but Obamacare couple with excellerated growth of the deficit will kill any chance of an economic recovery.

          • Links would be great... [#110730]
            By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

            Links would be great, thanks.

          • ... [#110732]
            By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑
          • CS Yes I did read them in their entirety. MassHealth is... [#110740]
            By: bigmother (124 comments) Go to top ↑

            CS
            Yes I did read them in their entirety. MassHealth is the MA ACA plan and Medicaid is considerered an arm of it. One of Romney tactics to get everyone covered was to expand Medicaid so the federal funds could be received to drive down the state costs. You may say the Supremes struck it down but it is already alive and well in MA and attested to in the Globe article. You should also know that the Globe is a very liberal paper, maybe the most liberal in the nation so when they say something like this is a big issue, you know things are really bad.The Politifact article points out you have to be careful when you get Polititian speak because of the way they bend the truth. When you read that in 2011 health care costs were already 37% of the states budget, it has to slow down on a percentage basis or else there is no money left to pay state employees, fix bridges (which the same Globe paper just recently sias “becomming the most dangereous in the Nation”) and highways and provide other social services. Additioanlly, MA has gone from ranking 23 to 48 in the amount of debt per resident, so the State is losing wiggle room.

            The PDF was to show the conclusions from the state and where they feel the cost drivers were. This is THEIR plan so they want to frame it in the best possible light but even they conclude it is growing faster than inflation even after the plan has been in fully implemented for over five years. You need to look at all the Division of Health Care reports to line everything up in the right columns to see the full explosion of costs from 2007.

            I know you are a supporter of the ACA. Believe what you want, but anything that requires over 2600 pages to describe how it should work is meant to confuse, not clarify. I had tried to read it but all the sections are full of mark-out’s and referals that it is almost impossible to comprehend. Bottomline-Health Care costs for a working family in MA have increased dramaticly over the last five years AND the percentage of the state budget has also seen the same expansion. RomneyCare is not working and if you think ObamaCare, which is an expansion of the former, will work any better, LOL.

          • Last comment on a subject with many many problems that all... [#110713]
            By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

            Last comment on a subject with many many problems that all have their roots of origin in “human nature”. Mankind is the reason for the problems in healthcare plain an simple. An example that I see every day. Admittedly an arguement with imperfect data and presentation, and it veers off topic.

            In our lab we perform countless EGD’s (long cool word when spelled out). Many are on young females under 35 years old weighing in excess of 250 lbs. Before many proceedures I often wager with others in the proceedure room, quietly and respectfully what we might find. Well over 95% of the time on a population of non-smokers, non-drinkers, without NSAID usage, with nothing significant in her history, we find nothing. Normal exam. When asked why the tests are even done on these individuals whose health problems would greatly diminish with serious weight loss, I recieve the answer, “CYA”. The primary doctor does not want to be the one who misses that one in 10,000 stomach mass. The endoscopist is going along with the referring physicians request. So as I see it, more peolple with access to healthcare will translate to more people in our lab getting proceedures they really don’t need. Increasing costs……of course “Tort reform” is another issue with many road blocks and billions of dollars at stake, Heck, maybe a trillion dollars at stake!

          • ... [#110717]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
    • ... [#110721]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
      • GRYM: "Others not so fortunate (many of the baby boomer... [#110734]
        By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

        GRYM:

        “Others not so fortunate (many of the baby boomer generation) will have to bite the bullet as our medical professionals are swamped with everything now to be dumped into the medical system.”

        Undocumented aliens will not have access under the bill – “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act”, PPACT. I emphasize the first two words, P-P. There are numerous items which stress this, including banning Insurance Companies from nixing some one with pre-existing conditions.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_an

        There are several provisions that have helped people since inception, early on. More to come.

  18. ALOHA!! Here in Hawaii Blue Cross is HMSA. My wife and I... [#110693]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    Here in Hawaii Blue Cross is HMSA. My wife and I paid our HMSA healthcare provider in 2011 over $12,000USD. We only used $6,000 worth of medical services.

    I told my wife, “Look, we aren’t sick enough!” I showed her where we paid $12,000 to HMSA and only got $6,000 worth of services. I told her, “Start injuring yourself or go get psychotherapy!” It bothers me that I am in a system where I over pay by 100% or more every year and I have no recourse. I am really paying for all the other smokers and hypochondriacs at HMSA!

    Would it not be cheaper if I did a pay-as-you-go with a catastrophic medical policy attached? I do not think having the US government as a middleman between the payer and the recipient is a good solution. I do not trust that a bureaucrat 6,000 miles away has my best interest at heart!

    • Kaimu, nobody in the insurance business, private or public... [#110698]
      By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

      Kaimu,

      nobody in the insurance business, private or public has your best interest in mind.

      Taking your health very serious is the best insurance. Life has many distractions, convenient foods and things that distract us from living healthy.

      I treat people enslaved to their appetites and convenience every day, all day.

      Health care costs will be a mess for our lifetime….the industry is corrupt and full of the public/ private partnerships Bill loathes….many many competing forces. “Oblama Care” will attempt to redefine winners and loosers, that’s about it. As always the Feds will expand their role in our lives…..

      • dberry - "Taking your health very serious is the best... [#110701]
        By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

        dberry – “Taking your health very serious is the best insurance. Life has many distractions, convenient foods and things that distract us from living healthy.”

        I’d say things are more sinister than that. Our packaged foods are engineered primarily to be addictive. Any nutritional content is purely accidental. That’s why you treat people enslaved to appetites every day. Billions are spent on researching just what makes the maximum number of people crave the food products engineered in the corporate labs. Sure, its possible to resist, but those big corps have figured out how to get our own biology to work against us. Fat and salt, washed down with sugar. Rinse, repeat.

        I agree completely about taking health seriously. And avoid medicine if at all possible.

        Obamacare is just rearranging the deck chairs. A laudable effort, but its snipping away at the leaves while the root causes of our great health problems go ignored – because they’re too profitable.

        Man, it couldn’t be planned any better. Poison our food supply so we get incredibly fat, and then sell us a pill we have to take every day to make us thin.

        • dave, "Our packaged foods are engineered primarily to be... [#110707]
          By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

          dave,
          “Our packaged foods are engineered primarily to be addictive. Any nutritional content is purely accidental. That’s why you treat people enslaved to appetites every day. Billions are spent on researching just what makes the maximum number of people crave the food products engineered in the corporate labs. Sure, its possible to resist, but those big corps have figured out how to get our own biology to work against us. Fat and salt, washed down with sugar. Rinse, repeat.”

          Can I hear the ticker letters MCD? just look at their drive thru lines day after day….

          “Man, it couldn’t be planned any better. Poison our food supply so we get incredibly fat, and then sell us a pill we have to take every day to make us thin.”

          LOL…what a world we live in….

          • MCD has a few items that are OK in my health book :... [#110708]
            By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

            MCD has a few items that are OK in my health
            book : Grilled chicken and some salads.

          • 620 Crispy Chicken Club 210 Med Coke 380 Med Fries 1210... [#110709]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            620 Crispy Chicken Club
            210 Med Coke
            380 Med Fries
            1210 total

            1/2 your RDA in one tasty “traditional” meal.

            I agree its at least theoretically possible to order
            100 milk
            350 grilled chicken sandwich
            140 bacon ranch salad
            590 total

            (which is progress) but that Newman’s Own dressing adds 170 cals just by itself. And the Southwest Salad with Crispy Chicken comes in at 450 cals. I’m sure its tasty though.

            Try this:
            770 Angus Mushroom & Swiss
            500 Large Fries
            930 16oz McFlurry with M&Ms
            2200 total

            What percentage of America pays attention to the details of nutrition? And what percentage of kids do this? Nothing like getting customers hooked when they’re young and more or less ruled by biology.

            http://nutrition.mcdonalds.com/getnutrition/nutrit

          • Why should I give a rat's ass what other people eat or are... [#110710]
            By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

            Why should I give a rat’s ass what other people eat or are encouraged to eat!

            You are simply showing your socialist stripes when you or the government wants to MANDATE ‘healthy’ for the greater good.

            We need a spinich tax. Those who do not buy and consume spinich (weekly receipts audited and time/date consumption video verified)will pay a $50/month non healthy eating tax!!!

            What a bunch of bumsteads!!!!!! Grow up, figure out the way the world really works and take care of yourself.

          • Ilya - "You are simply showing your socialist stripes when... [#110711]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            Ilya – “You are simply showing your socialist stripes when you or the government wants to MANDATE … “

            Can you point to the line in any of my posts where I said this? This is called a “straw man fallacy” – pretending I said something, and then attacking me for it.

            I DID say that the companies spend billions on research making their crappy food addictive to our biology, but I did NOT take the next step and recommend a Health Food Police. YOU took that next step. Not me.

            I think its a lousy thing to do, the people who work there should in good conscience eat their own food at least once a day – along with their family – and it would be awesome if we were all more aware of just how bad it is for us to consume on a regular basis. And its a major source of health care problems in this country. Same with smoking. Both industries, whose products are engineered to be maximally addictive, end up killing their regular customers over time. And my health care insurance bills go up as a direct result. So it DOES affect me.

            But that said, I don’t believe evil food or smoking should be banned. Just – the people who engage in such a business should be ashamed of what they do just to make a buck.

          • "We need a spinich tax. Those who do not buy and consume... [#110722]
            By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

            “We need a spinich tax. Those who do not buy and consume spinich (weekly receipts audited and time/date consumption video verified)will pay a $50/month non healthy eating tax!!!”

            Well, why not? We already pay a high fructose corn syrup tax. So the government has clearly decided some parts of our dietary choices for us. Should we drop all farm subsidies and allow the free market to decide what nutritional options are viable?

          • "Should we drop all farm subsidies and allow the free... [#110726]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

            “Should we drop all farm subsidies and allow the free market to decide what nutritional options are viable?”

            Absolutely!

      • ALOHA!! Agree, but there are times when genetics just... [#110706]
        By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

        ALOHA!!

        Agree, but there are times when genetics just trumps a healthy lifestyle. Many world class athletes have died early due to genetics. On the other hand my great aunt died at 103 with a cigarette in one hand and a glass of gin in the other! HA!!

  19. Do you have car insurance and, if so, do your claims equal... [#110694]
    By: J D Wingert (27 comments) Go to top ↑

    Do you have car insurance and, if so, do your claims equal the yearly premium? Do you have home-owners insurance and, if so, do your claims equal the yearly premium? Insurance is basically “shared risk” and, in most cases, the claims that you or I file do not equal the premiums; And don’t you think your assumption that “all the others” you pay for are only smokers and hypochondriacs? Nobody enrolled in HMSA has a illness or disease that can be attributed to “just one of those things”? It is a curious world that you live in.

    However, your point on catastrophic medical coverage may very well be a valid option – but it’s no assurance that you will recover your annual premium so it to is subject to the same “critical analysis” you cite with HMSA.

    Final point: Isn’t car insurance manditory in HI?

    • "It is a curious world that you live... [#110699]
      By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

      “It is a curious world that you live in.”

      Indeed.

    • ALOHA!! Yes, Hawaii requires minimal car insurance and so... [#110705]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      Yes, Hawaii requires minimal car insurance and so far the only accident I got into was with an uninsured motorist so a lot of good that does if people do not obey the law. It makes me wonder how many people in these hard times now are driving without the mandatory insurance rolling the dice. Still car insurance is on a different level than healthcare. I do not weigh 2000 lbs and travel at speeds up to 120mph! I am just not a lethal weapon that can do massive damage and kill people. Maybe Steven Seagal is but most of us are not as dangerous as a metal car or truck or HumVee going 90!!

      Healthcare insurance can be hugely less expensive and much more efficient but the major Pharmas and the politics and lawsuits get in the way of there ever being a viable resolve. Once an industry is “politicized” it is the end. Look at the mortgage biz now! Who dominates that industry?

  20. " A good hunter knows one thing above all else - he knows... [#110696]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    ” A good hunter knows one thing above all else – he knows the routines of his prey. A good hunter that is worth his salt does not catch his game because he sets his traps, but because he has no routines. He is free, fluid, unpredictable “…

  21. ... for QQQ, SPY and IWM, with weekly, monthly, quarterly... [#110704]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    … for QQQ, SPY and IWM, with weekly, monthly, quarterly and semesterly levels reset and Nemo’s expectations for the price action ahead detailed

    http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2012/06/nemos-

    Do not miss last paragraph uncovering secret “when everything else fails” tool, Nemo style.

  22. A friendly wager with whom ever. I buy drinks for who takes... [#110714]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    A friendly wager with whom ever. I buy drinks for who takes the other side when, if I make it to one of the Cara confrences, if I lose. Not if I tie.

    I take Italy and give away one goal!

    DB

    • dberryclan, I'd be tempted to take that bet on behalf of... [#110715]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      dberryclan,

      I’d be tempted to take that bet on behalf of all the other attendees. lol.

      But my blood is 50% Italian and no Spanish, so I guess I can’t.

  23. ... is up. Happy Canada... [#110716]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    … is up.

    Happy Canada Day!

  24. ... [#110718]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  25. ... [#110723]
    By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑
  26. ... [#110724]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  27. ... [#110728]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑
  28. I've noticed that this blog has quietened down a lot as I... [#110735]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    I’ve noticed that this blog has quietened down a lot as I suspect that many have to come to realise that Bill’s call on the TOG is not going to happen overnight (well, except gold, which has roughly doubled since the low of 2008 lol). The daily market action and news flow has come to be mind numbing in its volatility and flip flopping – I expect this to continue. Without a line to daytrade with I keep my expectations subdued and focused on the long-term.

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-p

    Puplava has some important fundamentals that should be on the radar of any investor focused on the TOG and a longer time frame than tomorrow. Japan must roll over half of its outstanding total debt in the next 2 years. I’m a little suspect of the conversion (cause it’s an unbelievable amount of money), but 450 trillion Yen amounts to 5 trillion dollars. That is a lot of debt for a single country to refinance in just 2 years, at a time when Europe is revving up the bond vigilantes.

    Big question is how much of the Japanese population can absorb this debt refinancing, cause it was the Japanese that were the biggest buyers of BoJ debt. The demographic outlook isn’t encouraging.

    As I’ve said before, I won’t be averaging down on the silver that I have. I await price to confirm that we’re consolidating for the next move higher. That for me is around the mid-30′s – and I want to see new support levels hold before adding.

    http://www.robertsinn.com/2012/06/30/sage-weekly-l

    Robert Sinn’s father, a former businessman and resident of Malta, gives a very clear and concise argument as to why Europe will not survive its present turmoil. Actually the best read on why Europe will fail that I have read to date. The attitudes are not conducive to giving up the sovereignty necessary for the Euro zone economy to pull out of the hole it has dug itself in. Meanwhile, the game from Central Banks around the world is extend and pretend.

    Well, let them. Europe is falling apart and Japan wants to refinance during this fiasco. America’s date with ‘austerity’ also comes Jan 1 2013. There’s likely only one way out for all of them….

    Diamonds Bill? Aren’t they a girls best friend and a strategic (read manipulated) market?

    “…a diamond’s “worth” is little more than a product of vary careful image management…”

    http://www.blogher.com/forever-dies-hard?page=full

  29. ... [#110737]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑