Bill Cara’s Blog for Jun 27, 2011 [See Post-Close report]

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Cautious trading seems to be in place in Europe this morning. An hour ago, there appeared to be some strength in the banks and miners, but that has softened a bit. For some reason, the song “Candle in the Wind” comes to mind.

Have a good day.


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,640.00 5:28AM EDT Up 2.00 (0.08%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,506.36 6:59AM EDT Down 7.94 (0.32%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,794.52 6:59AM EDT Up 9.72 (0.26%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,131.95 6:45AM EDT Up 10.57 (0.15%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 328.74 Jun 24 Up 0.17 (0.05%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 451.63 6:45AM EDT Up 0.95 (0.21%) Components, Chart, More
^SMSI Madrid General N/A 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 337.97 6:44AM EDT Up 3.45 (1.03%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,003.78 6:44AM EDT Up 5.76 (0.10%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,726.86 6:45AM EDT Up 29.14 (0.51%) Components, Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Good evening. Patrick here.

When it is near the end of the quarter and portfolio managers are looking to goose the market higher you can be sure the A-Team – Amazon (AMZN+4.52%) and Apple (AAPL+1.74%) – will be front and center leading the charge.

The two stocks were sporting multi-point gains long before the broad market took flight (S&P+.92%); high-beta stocks going green stoke speculative juices, getting market participants ready to add risk early and often.

Traders are expecting the Greek austerity vote will pass and the 48-hour general strike in Greece will not degenerate into violent demonstrations against the government.

The S&P held the 200-day again but needs to vault above 1300 to give Bulls the upper hand. Each rally since the May 2 high has turned into a one-day wonder; we will have to see if the buyers can press their bets and run off a string of consecutive days to the upside.

Still waiting for a resolution, traders must exercise patience for a little while longer.

Have a great evening.


  1. HSBC upgrades BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Vedanta... [#88443]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    HSBC upgrades BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Vedanta Resources and Antofagasta arguing that moderating growth in China is more than priced in.

    • Mark H, Antofagasta (ANTO.L) has an interesting looking... [#88444]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      Mark H,

      Antofagasta (ANTO.L) has an interesting looking chart.

      • Morning Bill, My crude technical analysis sees a symmetric... [#88446]
        By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

        Morning Bill,

        My crude technical analysis sees a symmetric triangle which could suggest a change in trend is about to happen. Currently, the price is below a rising 200-day SMA and is trying to get above the falling 50-day SMA.

  2. 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays 11:30 AM ET... [#88445]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays
    • 11:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction
    • 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction
    • 1:00 PM ET 2-Yr Note Auction
  3. http://on.ft.com/ienJUY All Sarkozy has to do now is... [#88447]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://on.ft.com/ienJUY

    All Sarkozy has to do now is threaten to pull out of the euro to get the Germans to play ball.

    • ALOHA!! Ahhhh ... unions ... gotta love em'! Its never... [#88455]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      Ahhhh … unions … gotta love em’!

      Its never about things like “productivity” but instead it’s about threats and strikes! A union is only as strong as its weakest link! The way I see it the Euro is fraught with weak links. To the German people it is quit glaringly evident who the weak links are. Myself and my German friends have always thought the Euro was destined for the trash heap from day one! I do not even consider it a viable currency and have never owned it.

      The solution would be to let Germany have its Deutschemark back! Maybe the Germans will threaten to pullout of the Euro and leave France with Greece! What sort of basis for a fiat currency is a “union” like the EU? It takes a pathetic monetary idea like fiat(irredeemable; backed by debt) and doubles down on the worthlessness factor by adding in unionism! The worst of all worlds!

      Brilliant thinking …

      • It's about political union, not monetary union... [#88457]
        By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

        It’s about political union, not monetary union. ;-)

        • ALOHA!! It's about political union, not monetary... [#88458]
          By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

          ALOHA!!

          It’s about political union, not monetary union.

          Is there a difference?

          Seriously, what is the Euro without Germany? It’s a USD!

          What are AAA US Treasuries without Asia? BBB(on negative watch)!

  4. In a SPIEGEL interview, leading German economist Stefan... [#88453]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    In a SPIEGEL interview, leading German economist Stefan Homburg argues that euro-zone members should not bail out Greece, discusses who is making a profit from the crisis and explains why he himself is buying Greek bonds. “I believe in the boundless stupidity of the German government,” he says.

    SPIEGEL: The European Union and the International Monetary Fund are planning a new bailout package for Greece involving the voluntary participation of banks. What’s your take on this?

    Homburg: Banks cannot participate voluntarily. An executive board is committed to its company’s welfare, and not the public interest. If it waives outstanding debts at the expense of its own company, this is a breach of trust and punishable by law.
    SPIEGEL: Banks can only do business if the financial markets function properly. If the banks help make this happen, it certainly can’t be a punishable offense.

    Homburg: A bank can waive a portion of a debt with the aim of saving the remainder. This occurs in all bankruptcy proceedings. But things are different here, precisely because of the bailout package: If the bank refuses to make its own contribution, taxpayers alone will pick up the tab. This is exactly what a board of directors has to strive to achieve to avoid being accused of criminal breach of trust.

    SPIEGEL: So the voluntary participation of private creditors, which German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have agreed on, will achieve little or nothing?

    Homburg: It was all just a big show which was mainly intended to calm the German public. Merkel wanted mandatory participation, Sarkozy wanted none at all. In effect, Sarkozy has prevailed. (more)

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,…

    • A good read. Thanks for... [#88456]
      By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

      A good read. Thanks for posting.

    • ... and so will ordinary Greeks: (GR) Greece Gov't... [#88460]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      … and so will ordinary Greeks:

      (GR) Greece Gov’t Spokesperson: To begin state asset sales in two-three months
      - Sales to begin once state agency is set up

      ** FX dealers noted that last week a journalist asked EU Juncker about the Greek privatization plan by suggesting to him that – under the terms – Greece had to effectively sell an asset every 10 days…and given that they haven’t sold anything in over a year how does he expect them to do this. Juncker’s answer: “They will have to do so.”

      Yikes.

  5. Good morning. 4-5 Billion Dollar POMO Injection... [#88454]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    4-5 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Today.

    ——

    08:30 Personal Income/Spending
    08:30 PCE Prices – Core

    ——

    BHP – BHP Billiton upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.

    CSCO – PT Lowered from $19 to $16 @ Auriga. Hold

    CSCO – Cowen downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Cowen believes Cisco’s growth will remain depressed and that the company needs further restructuring.

    TGT – Target downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital based on weak consumer spending at the low end and expectations of margin pressure from new initiatives, higher costs, and increased competition. Price target is $46

    ——

    “New Republican Presidential candidate, Jon Huntsman, is fluent in Chinese. In a short period of time, the Republicans have come quite a long way. The last Republican president wasn’t even fluent in English.” — David Letterman

  6. Bill, Candle or DUST IN THE... [#88459]
    By: basketguy (90 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bill,

    Candle or DUST IN THE WIND..LOL

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hzv0TSSDgU

    Elton John or Kansas…

    I like Kansas..

  7. ... [#88461]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  8. (GE) German Dep Fin Min Asmussen: The euro is in danger of... [#88462]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    (GE) German Dep Fin Min Asmussen: The euro is in danger of losing legitimacy; Europe must make contingency plans, the Greek parliament could vote down austerity plans (In a danger? Losing what? You guys really need to wake up…)
    - Crisis management can buy time to answer fundamental questions on Europe. (As in, to pass the responsibility for the collapse on the next guy? Got it.)
    - Euro zone is prepared for future debt crisis through rescue mechanism; ESM is very close to the idea of a European Currency Fund. (Prepared for future debt crisis? You mean you’ll survive this one? Got it.)
    - Greek austerity measures so far deserve respect, however Greece still needs to do more. (More, as in sell whole country?)
    - Moving towards global multi-polar currency system. (Is Drachma the part of it?)
    - Euro zone budget situation is in better shape than either US or Japan. (Well, if it makes you feel better…)

    Hopefully done for the day. Although they are good at supplying new material so maybe not.

  9. 48 hours to perhaps blockbuster news for Rubicon. The... [#88463]
    By: papadynamite (446 comments) Go to top ↑

    48 hours to perhaps blockbuster news for Rubicon. The Annual General Meeting is in Toronto on Wednesday. It is expected that they will be releasing a Bulk Sample report as well as a PEA.
    This morning they announced a deal with West Kirkland Mining regarding Rubicon’s property at the Long Canyon Trend in Nevada.
    But the flagship property in Red Lake is what all eyes are focused on. The question relates to how much gold is there, adjacent to Goldcorp’s mines. We will know soon enough! Bullish news will jack up the price perhaps 20-30%. Your guess is as good as mine. I am fully invested in it. An operating mine is scheduled to go into production in less than 21 months.

    • papadynamite, I agree with you on this one (RBY $4.54). I... [#88465]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      papadynamite,

      I agree with you on this one (RBY $4.54). I have a 3.0% weighting with an ACB of $4.07. I anticipate at least a 40% one-year return.

      I will try to go to the AGM. It’s at the Royal York Hotel at 3pm on Wed.

      http://www.rubiconminerals.com/

  10. JNPR - PT Lowered from $42 to $33 @ UBS... [#88466]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    JNPR – PT Lowered from $42 to $33 @ UBS. Neutral

  11. Reloaded (wrote some) puts on the move down today: SLW... [#88467]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

    Reloaded (wrote some) puts on the move down today: SLW, SVM, SLV this AM. But don’t follow me I’m often too early.

  12. Not for the squeamish, for sure. I think there are some who... [#88468]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Not for the squeamish, for sure. I think there are some who are capitulating while others are bottom-fishing here. Currency trades are extreme.

    • yeh UUP bearish divergence plays out. Took initial entries... [#88469]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      yeh UUP bearish divergence plays out.

      Took initial entries in SLW calls, UXG, SVM and RBY (thank you papad/Bill). Leaving myself some powder to buy lower if necessary.

  13. The EU et al. are crafting a restructing of a sort that... [#88470]
    By: lessmore (322 comments) Go to top ↑

    The EU et al. are crafting a restructing of a sort that they claim will not constitute a default. Its the ultimate hubris. The Greek debt is insured by CDS. If the rating agencies are persuaded to refrain from declaring default respecting the crafted change how does that prevent the banks from making claims of default from their counterparties. It probably does not.

  14. This morning I finally had a chance to get caught up on all... [#88471]
    By: GW (400 comments) Go to top ↑

    This morning I finally had a chance to get caught up on all the comments from Friday. I have to confess I was very surprised and flattered to see the responses to my end of day post from last Friday. Thank you very much for all the nice positive feed back. But please let me apologize to everyone in the group for not going into more detail on why I made that post.

    Since rejoining the group here a few months ago I have notice that the group is leaning heavily to the bullish side on precious metals and I agree 100% that it is the right side of the trade in the long run. But from what I am possibly seeing on my charts, gold and silver in the short term and maybe [<---I stress maybe here] even over the next few months could go lower than what everyone here maybe thinking. So I found myself posting charts and comments that were going against the tide here more than I wanted. So rather than continue and possibly coming across as maybe being antagonistic to the bullish sentiment here, I thought I would just fade into the background for a while.

    In the past in other blogs I have been in trades that were in the red [due to my stubbornness at the time] and when you see comments or charts that seem to always be against your trade idea it does tend to grate on you after a while. This is what I wanted to avoid. But if everyone is OK with my bearish short term precious metal sentiment and do not see it as a constant attack on their trade ideas then I would still like to post my charts.

    So again, thank you [ Bill, NYUGrad, optionoracle, M R Ducks, dberryclan, BOB 47, Les & Telestar3d ] for all your positive feed back.

    [Telestar3d ---> Bradley Turn Dates - http://tinyurl.com/kwh2ll ]

    • GW, if I may chime in here... IMO, just post your views and... [#88475]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      GW, if I may chime in here… IMO, just post your views and never mind whether all or most or some agree or disagree. Different points of view is what makes the market. Who needs discourse where everyone agrees with everyone? As long as disagreement remains civil, presenting well-composed opposite point of view is a very valuable contribution.

      To cite an example many here will remember… for about a year and a half, since approx May of 2009 my posts warning not to short the freight train going up were irritating some of convinced bears – up to a degree where I started getting hate mail. Guess what – none of those who were shorting the market and sending that mail are no longer around, but plenty of people posted or e-mailed their thank yous for saving their bacon by those warnings. To me, one of those grateful e-mails was worth 10 negative ones – people who have open mind and are willing to accept differing point of views have much better chance at this game than those with “strong convictions”…

      • Vad... Wish I would of been here in this group at that time... [#88500]
        By: GW (400 comments) Go to top ↑

        Vad… Wish I would of been here in this group at that time to heed your warnings. I found myself in the most bearish of dens at evilspeculator.com. Needless to say I took a whopping that I will NEVER forget.

        You know you are doing your job when you get the hate mail! :-)

        Thanks for the advice.

    • ... [#88480]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
    • GW - I have been lurking recently but felt I had to say... [#88486]
      By: Zaydac (84 comments) Go to top ↑

      GW – I have been lurking recently but felt I had to say your views are very valuable at a time when an over-bullish stance on the PMs could be expensive. Everything I have been reading over the last fortnight suggests we may be facing a drying-up of liquidity. I think we might be heading into Jonathan Ruffer’s “moment of deflationary fear” and, if so, it will probably be followed by his “inflation of currency compromise” – and THAT is when the PMs will go through the roof again. I would never suggest that any long-term holder of gold or silver should try and trade through this patch but new buyers and accumulators may very possibly find that they can get lower prices if they wait a while. The thing that might invalidate the wait and see approach is that in Europe gold is still very close to its all time high price in terms of the pound and the Euro. Trader Dan: “Fears of some sort of contagion spreading to the big European banks are running very high over there. As long as these fears remain downside in gold will be limited.” My favourite British analyst has published a sort of red alert to his subscribers, including unequivocal advice to ensure they do not have more than the “guaranteed” maximum deposits in any of the UK banks, and not to delay in moving their money to stay below the maximum.

      FD: I never touch my core long term holding of gold but I have gone to 100% cash in my Bullionvault account.

      • Zaydac, thanks for the "+" feed back! Also you made a lot... [#88487]
        By: GW (400 comments) Go to top ↑

        Zaydac, thanks for the “+” feed back! Also you made a lot of very good points in which you set the stage for my next post on the $$$ and a potential coming “crash/big drop” type of scenario that may be in the cards for the market in general.

    • Thanks GW! Les, my apologies, I mis-interpreted your post... [#88490]
      By: Telestar3d (636 comments) Go to top ↑

      Thanks GW!

      Les, my apologies, I mis-interpreted your post as a dis to GW and I was wrong.
      Again Les, my apologies. T3d

  15. Some talk dividend may be raised once the buyback program... [#88472]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    Some talk dividend may be raised once the buyback program is complete. Money managers have been pressing for this recently.

  16. AMZN - target raised at Morgan Stanley. Shares of AMZN now... [#88473]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    AMZN – target raised at Morgan Stanley. Shares of AMZN now seen reaching $245, according to Morgan Stanley. Company also added to the Top Ideas list, as margins could continue to expand. Overweight rating.

  17. I closely watch the trading in shares of the German and... [#88474]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    I closely watch the trading in shares of the German and French banks to gain a sense of how this sovereign debt situation will be resolved for Greece and other countries. This morning there are plenty of meetings and public remarks, causing a volatile situation in the market.

    Dow Jones/Reuters:

    Banks are working with European governments to consider the accounting impact of a Greek debt restructuring but a solution has yet to be found for Greece, Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Chief Executive Josef Ackermann told a conference organized by Reuters Monday.

    According to Reuters, Ackermann also warned that if contagion spreads the crisis could be bigger than the one caused by Lehman’s collapse a few years ago.

    Banks are prepared to play a constructive role in finding a solution for Greece but it remains uncertain if a good plan can be found that will suit everybody, Ackermann said. He said that imbalances had built up in Greece over 20 years and can’t be fixed in a matter of months.

    He noted that French banks have presented a plan but that others are also being considered, Reuters reported.

    Ackermann’s comments coincide with a Rome meeting of a group of bankers from around the world to discuss the Greek debt crisis with Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance, and Vittorio Grilli, the chairman of the euro zone’s Economic and Finance Committee, people familiar with the situation said.

    Earlier Monday, the German government held a conference call with German banks to discuss their possible involvement in a rescue package for Greece that includes the private-sector. German banks and insurers had to report their Greek exposure to the German government by Sunday.

    Greece’s budget deficit needs to stabilize prior to considering any other options, Ackermann said according to Reuters. A solution involving private sector banks should consider them taking equity stakes as part of a bail-in solution, Ackermann said.

    He said that looking at Greek sovereign risk is too narrow and that implications from credit default swaps used to hedge exposure should also be considered. He criticized the lack of transparency, saying it isn’t known whether the CDS risk for Greece of around EUR5 billion is evenly distributed.

    Ackermann also warned that the cumulative impact of new capital requirements for banks will create a burden for the entire sector, adding that he would support the creation of a European ratings agency.

  18. with tech moving... [#88477]
    By: London (235 comments) Go to top ↑

    with tech moving well.

  19. The future charts/prices look like they are still going... [#88485]
    By: jimddavis (98 comments) Go to top ↑

    The future charts/prices look like they are still going South. Now watching Gold break %1,500. Gold & Silver, as well as Crude Oil / Oil & Gas are, in my opinion, in trouble in the short term. Long term is entirely a different animal. Again, just my opinion and you should not trade my opinion, just prices.

  20. This is the red alert I... [#88488]
    By: Zaydac (84 comments) Go to top ↑

    This is the red alert I mentioned:
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28905.html

    I have been following Nadeem Walayat for over 3 years. He hasn’t put a foot wrong yet. If I had ignored his poor writing skills and followed his advice my total net worth would be significantly greater than it is.

    BTW he is not forecasting a crash in the USA markets (he principally tracks the Dow because that is what he began his trading career with).
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article28641.html

  21. I came in pretty 'disturbed', realizing that my "safe"... [#88489]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    I came in pretty ‘disturbed’, realizing that my “safe” retirement assets (‘cash’) were in fact in Fidelity money market funds (with a huge exposure to European debt)…

    Hedged away with a ‘strategy’ (not all that quantitative) of

    - UUP
    - SH
    - BRKB
    - SHY (biggest position – basically a big fat ZERO)
    - MSFT
    - INTC
    - CSCO
    - AKAM

    Not saying that will work out so great, but I wasn’t going to sit there with “return-free risk”. Is the government going to bail out money-market fund losers, too? Nothing would really surprise me.

  22. Part in bold: (US) Fed's Hoenig: Large banks putting US... [#88491]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Part in bold:

    (US) Fed’s Hoenig: Large banks putting US capitalism at risk; No comments on monetary policy
    - Financial firms that benefit from US govt safety net should be reduced to only core banking services.
    - Shadow banking system needs to be overhauled.

  23. There will be another general strike in Greece for 48 hours... [#88492]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

    There will be another general strike in Greece for 48 hours starting tomorrow Tuesday. I believe the vote to accept more bailout funds is Wednesday so things could get interesting if there’s a yes vote.

    Over 70% of the Greek people in a recent poll indicated they are opposed to further debt enslavement by the Euro banksters and the Greek government.

    It’s Drachma time. Let’s roll.

  24. ... [#88493]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑
  25. I will post some charts later today or first thing tomorrow... [#88494]
    By: GW (400 comments) Go to top ↑

    I will post some charts later today or first thing tomorrow showing why I believe we still have business to the downside.

    Right now I can see new lows at 1225-33 [Fib & Trend Line] or 1210 [300 MA] and even 1280 [breaking the 300MA <-- my favorite as a tradable low].

    But if this 60min plays out as a H&S then this alone would have a target of 1233. So I am looking to short the yellow area with a “mental” stop just above the head.

    http://tinyurl.com/4x5xebv

    • Just curious and don't read anything into this, but what... [#88502]
      By: teamonfuego (2544 comments) Go to top ↑

      Just curious and don’t read anything into this, but what gives you the confidence that this H&S pattern will work when pretty much every other one since 2008 hasn’t?

      Also, just in general, wouldn’t a H&S on a longer time frame be more relevant?

      • teamonfuego... The possible H&S forming now may in fact... [#88516]
        By: GW (400 comments) Go to top ↑

        teamonfuego… The possible H&S forming now may in fact may not work out and the market may just test this area and continue upwards. But my confidence in a H&S patterns playing out now vs the past [2009-2010], is the market climate to me has changed. One of the factors that has changed the market climate is the end of POMO [at least for now] which has been a safety net for the bulls. You can see it in the recent rallies which have been made on very low volume. Where as before it seem like everyone bought the dips because of the Fed injecting liquidity. It produced a low risk atmosphere for the market. Another reason why this H&S could play out is we have yet to put in a bottom on this current correction. Once the bottom looks to be in [large sell volume as one sign] then the so called summer rally should begin. Until then I see the risk to the downside.

        As for “H&S on a longer time frame be more relevant?”, it would be a warning that a possible change in market for the longer term is about to take place. Where as this H&S to me is for the short term time frame[few days to weeks].

  26. Attached chart of gold I posted last week with heads up to... [#88495]
    By: Bear E (287 comments) Go to top ↑

    Attached chart of gold I posted last week with heads up to beware of false breakouts. Silver chart is simular.

  27. Lots of clutter on this chart but wanted everyone to see my... [#88496]
    By: GW (400 comments) Go to top ↑

    Lots of clutter on this chart but wanted everyone to see my thinking why I expect UXG to keep falling. Under $5 my radar will be on for UXG.

    http://tinyurl.com/3nat7vq

    My thoughts are if silver does head down into the mid 20′s or even low 20′s then UXG could be bought for under $4/share. If so then I will be hitting the button…. 3-rows down, 3rd from the right. :-)

    http://tinyurl.com/5glurp

  28. it appears idiots are the source of problems in IT... [#88497]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    it appears idiots are the source of problems in IT security. Funny that, IT security appears to share many of the traits of politics, economics, financial and fiscal management.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/human-err

    “The U.S. Department of Homeland Security ran a test this year to see how hard it was for hackers to corrupt workers and gain access to computer systems. Not very, it turned out.

    Staff secretly dropped computer discs and USB thumb drives in the parking lots of government buildings and private contractors. Of those who picked them up, 60 percent plugged the devices into office computers, curious to see what they contained. If the drive or CD case had an official logo, 90 percent were installed.”

  29. ... [#88498]
    By: Jack Senett (438 comments) Go to top ↑

    Above.

  30. Well today's TLT move makes somewhat more sense, but the... [#88499]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

    Well today’s TLT move makes somewhat more sense, but the long bond gapped down overnight, and was sold all day long even though SPX was off at market open. Perhaps this is the first appearance of the “no buyers left for treasuries” trade that Bill Gross was warning us about long ago? Now that QE2 is finally (allegedly) over.

    My gold “panic detector” (PHYS:GLD) is coming off its highs of late. I interpret this to mean that the mainstream view is that Greece will not default this time around. I kind of agree. I think the Greek parliament will vote for austerity and privatization, but big chunks will simply not be enforced. However, there will be a delay in realization of all this. Panic later, but not today.

    Anyone else notice that nothing has actually been “privatized” yet? The Greek people are still just giving a bunch of IOUs in exchange for an ongoing supply of hard currency spent on goodies today. Anyone want to bet that the Greek people will just watch on TV while their extremely unpopular government starts selling off the family jewels to northern bankers?

    FD: I’m short TLT

  31. ... [#88501]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  32. I have just begun to check out this blog and so far have... [#88503]
    By: davidm4210 (2 comments) Go to top ↑

    I have just begun to check out this blog and so far have been impressed. Thanks!

    Dave

  33. 8:30 AM ET Personal Income and Outlays 11:30 AM ET... [#88504]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
  34. I am now ensconsed sans indie badge and expenses inside the... [#88505]
    By: loannetter (1298 comments) Go to top ↑

    I am now ensconsed sans indie badge and expenses inside the #1 Home Lender HB and finding all this very fascinating. Now funding in all 50 states and backed by the biggest investors in the world. The corporate learning curve is fascinating. We have ‘people’ for this and that. Will my creative, personal service streak be hemmed in and hog tied? Stay tuned. FYI: Nice upscale commercial condo for sale if you are interested in a Pacific NW landing spot, Dr. Strangelove.

  35. ... [#88507]
    By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 4ever, The white buffalo was born on a ranch about 10... [#88509]
      By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

      4ever,
      The white buffalo was born on a ranch about 10 miles north of me in Hunt County. The ‘buzz’ has even captured the attention of europeans. Next to ‘Audie Murphy’ days, it’s a super big hit for our semi-agarian east Texas county…

      A Chickasaw friend of mine believes that the white buffalo portends a change in Texas law to allow legalized gambling. In Chickasaw, ‘casino’ translates as ‘We got you back, white man.’

  36. For the deflationistas among us who still kow tow to all... [#88508]
    By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

    For the deflationistas among us who still kow tow to all the government’s stastical claptrap, there is a brief article on safehaven.com from Fred Sheehan which lays out succinctly a just cause for the impeachment of Federal data gatherers as a class and the lengths academics will go to in support of your absolutely corrupt government.

    Safehaven seems to be an open site so beware of a lot of old moldy pickled tripe. I cruise it occasionally for the thoughts of Fred, Doug Noland of the Prudent Bear and a few others. Fred echos John Williams (Shadow Stats) assertion that the inflation books have been cooked on numerous occasions over the last 35+ years.

    Note the co-relation of the money supply and the (diminished) purchasing power of your now silly looking folding money or if you are a techie, how quickly decimal points can be moved!

    Enjoy

  37. JJC is noticeable in its tightening up here. Copper is... [#88511]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    JJC is noticeable in its tightening up here. Copper is about to make a move and given its fundamental underpinning of the market as a whole its direction will be important. My fear is that it’s waiting for window dressing to finish before continuing downtrend. FCX is similarly lurking around solid support ready to make a potential move lower.

    Uncle Buck – likewise setting up for a breakout once window dressing is finished?

    TLT – solid sell today as hourly and daily bearish divergences follow through. Support not far off and EOQ is arguably once again the event to be watching.

    JMO

    ————————————————-

    95F forecast for today. I cannot remember this part of Switzerland having ever made it so high before. Happily to be cooled down with rain tomorrow.

  38. Interesting story has developed with Muddy Waters and Hong... [#88517]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Interesting story has developed with Muddy Waters and Hong Kong listed Yurun Food (mid-cap).

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=1068.HK&t=3m&l=on&amp;…

    It’s time for regulatory investigators to fully understand what’s going on at Muddy Waters.

  39. If anybody wants to set up a monitor of the banks and... [#88520]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    If anybody wants to set up a monitor of the banks and miners in Europe and UK that I check every morning at ADVFN.com, it’s free. Go to the ADVFN.com and set up new monitors with these strings:

    For Bankers –

    ASE:ETE, ASE:ALPHA, ASE:EUROB, ASE:TPEIR, ISE:BIR, ISE:AIB, EU:ACA, EU:BNP, XE:514000, XE:803200, OMX:DANSKE, RTS:SBER, BIT:ISP, BIT:UCG, EU:GLE, LSE:BARC, LSE:HSBA, LSE:RBS, LSE:LLOY, LSE:STAN, LSE:BNC

    For Miners –

    LSE:AAL, LSE:ABG, LSE:ANTO, LSE:BLT, LSE:GLEN, LSE:RIO, LSE:XTA, NYSE:FCX, NYSE:BHP, NYSE:RIO, USOTC:AAUKY, USOTC:XSRAY

    If you anticipate a trend move in either direction, for whatever reason, these stocks will reflect it as and when it happens, and you’ll get to see the move develop before NY and Toronto open in the morning.

  40. ... [#88523]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  41. Gold 1. This chart could give some idea how far gold could... [#88483]
    By: GW (400 comments) Go to top ↑

    Gold

    1. This chart could give some idea how far gold could correct to during this current correction. Keep a watch on the 20MA.

    Chart #1 GLD monthly 1999-2011: http://tinyurl.com/3qna6xt

    2. This chart shows why I think this current correction will be limited and still could take some time to complete. So far we have been correcting for 2 months and it may go on like this for a while longer. The reason I say that is I believe we have not yet finished wave 3 and we have been in wave iv of 3 since early May. If this wave iv plays out like it did in late 2004 and ealry 2005 then gold will be range bound for some time yet. Note the RSI comparsion bewteen the 2 time periods.

    Chart 2a GLD monthly 1985-2011 [RSI 14]: http://tinyurl.com/4ywdjgc

    or if you use RSI 7

    Chart 2b GLD monthly 1985-2011[RSI 7]: http://tinyurl.com/4yymle2

    3. This chart suggests to me that to meet the targets below, that both metals, most likely silver more than gold, will both have to drop a good bit yet. [Silver I expect to drop to 25 and maybe even 21 which could see my UXG targets of under $5 and even maybe $4 hit.]

    Chart 3: SLV:GLD http://tinyurl.com/3gxxmdb

    4. Misc GLD

    Chart 4a GLD wkly [enlarged]: http://tinyurl.com/43tq9us

    Chart 4b GLD Wkly: http://tinyurl.com/3mmvzwy

    Chart 4b GLD daily [update from a previous post]: http://tinyurl.com/3ke23ym