Bill Cara’s Blog for Jul 26, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

“Lessons From the Trader Wizard (2012)” is now available at Now that I grasp the publishing process and the requirements of the people involved, I plan to write more.


A statement early today from the president of the European Central Bank pledging to preserve the Euro has rallied the Euro and equities, led of course by the Bank stocks.…

The media seems caught up in the differences between words and actions, but the market got wind early yesterday that the ECB was ready to act, and bid up the Bank stocks then as I pointed out in the blog.

Today the Bulls are back on the bid as these monitors of the Banks, Miners & Oilers and Consumer stocks in Europe show.




Yesterday, Sandy Weill, the man who led the move by Citigroup to become the world’s largest and most diverse financial conglomerate admitted the folly of that plan, now stating that depository banks ought to be separated from investment banks, something I’ve said all along was needed.

Banking analyst Meredith Whitney disagrees.…

Have a good day.

Good morning, Geoff here.

The Euro and European stocks are in rally mode this morning pulling all risk assets up.

Mario Draghi stated: “within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”

Will real actions follow? Is he really worried about the banking sector? Actions are all that matter at this point.

Shorts in euro are going to be squeezed in negative sentiment and the US Dollar’s breakout could fail so lets watch the following charts:





Have a great trading day!

Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 1,916.94 6:41AM EDT Up 18.68 (0.98%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,190.50 Jul 25 Up 14.40 (0.66%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,127.98 6:53AM EDT Up 46.24 (1.50%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,432.53 6:41AM EDT Up 26.01 (0.41%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 314.50 6:41AM EDT Up 1.41 (0.45%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 466.41 6:41AM EDT Up 4.36 (0.94%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 320.44 6:58AM EDT Up 1.96 (0.62%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,236.30 6:33AM EDT Up 55.53 (0.90%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,527.55 6:41AM EDT Up 29.23 (0.53%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 887.10 6:53AM EDT Up 7.50 (0.85%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,368.54 6:53AM EDT Down 1.93 (0.14%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 587.72 6:33AM EDT Down 0.37 (0.06%) Chart, More

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

Cara 100 Company research notes from brokers

July 26, 2012

July 26, 2012
Credit Suisse Report

Boeing (BA) OUTPERFORM R. Spingarn
CP: US$ 74.03 TP: US$ 90 CAP: US$ 55.5b
Mix and MAX to Define Guidance Upside in H2; Raising Estimates and Target Price to $90 (from $85)

We Expect Consensus to Rise: Today’s 25-cent guidance increase (to $4.40-$4.60) was greater than expected, we think, at least at this point in the year. We had been of the mind that anything above $4.60 was out of reach, but we’re more optimistic now. We think there are still risks on 787 rate and elsewhere in H2, which we believe management is still protecting against, and therefore if execution is strong, we see another guidance increase. Therefore we are raising our estimate above guidance to $4.70 and expect consensus of $4.56 to rise as well. Despite global economic volatility, we still like the visibility and cycle dynamics behind the BA thesis, and its relative defense position, and therefore reiterate OP and raise our TP to $90 (from $85). Our TP incorporates multiples on peak estimated EPS and FCF. Our 12/13/14 estimates rise to $4.70/$5.40/$6.57 from $4.56/$5.08/$6.15, respectively.

Q2 Color: The EPS beat was derived from performance at both BCA and BDS. BCA’s 10.5% margin was driven by mix & volume, and highlights the strong op. leverage there. Moreover, we see continued improvement in the learning curve on 787, where we est. cash unit cost is now $236M from $241M in Q1. The Q2 improvement was even greater on Seattle-built 787s but Charleston’s more expensive early aircraft distort the unit cost upward.
H2 Upside: Mgmt has repeatedly said rate performance at BCA is key to EPS upside in ’12, especially on 787. Today’s guidance uptick boosts our confidence in BA’s ability to achieve 5 787s/month this fall, as suppliers likely are already showing this rate. We also suspect today’s guidance reflects progress on 737 ramp. Finally, for those concerned about the margin impact from H2 introduction of MAX into the 737 program pool, we believe it is already embedded in the 9% full year guide.

July 26, 2012
Credit Suisse Report

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) OUTPERFORM J. Cook
CP: US$ 82.60 TP: US$ 117 CAP: US$ 53.1b
CATch 22; Revising Estimates and Lowering Target Price to $117 (from $120)

Thoughts Post Call: CAT’s stock got a modest lift today despite beating consensus estimates by $0.42 cents on record incrementals (44% ex BUCY & MWM) and lifting EPS again by $0.10 to $9.60. CAT’s commentary implies they expect another up year in 2013 vs market fears of a double digit decline. On the downside, the inventory overhang remains an issue, up another $800M in Q2, but CAT quantified expectations to take $1B of inventory out by year end. China will take the full year to fix and the markets are taking longer to recover. Lastly, CAT still expects to spend about $4B in capex in 2012 despite macro concerns… Where’s the Relief? While the macro is too tough for anyone to call, however management can provide insight into what levers they can pull in the event of a downturn. While we didn’t get these answers today we expect some clarity at Minexpo in terms of how to think about trough EPS and/or decrementals given recent acquisitions and capacity additions. We also think a better understanding of CAT’s overall recession strategy may help give this management team some credit for how they might handle a downturn given what has been fairly impressive execution during Oberhelman’s reign and relative to CAT’s history.

CAT Raises 2012 EPS to $9.60; Reduces Sales by $1B at Midpoint: For 2012, CAT is now guiding EPS to be $9.60, or up $0.10 and above consensus of $9.54. Sales are tweaked down $2B off the high end ($1B FX and $1B macro) and $1 at midpoint to $68-$70B from $68-$72B. The EPS raise was due to better operations partially offset by a tax rate increase,
now expected to be 30.5% (prev 30%). This implies EPS of $4.68 in the back half (street is at $4.96) and incrementals of 32%. We tweak our FY2012-2014 EPS to $9.60, $10.50 and $11.20 (from $9.50, $10.70, and $11.45). Our $117 price target (down from $120) assumes 11.5x our 2014 EPS discounted back. We reiterate our Outperform rating.

Whole Foods Market(WFM)
July 26, 2012
Credit Suisse Report

Whole Foods Market (WFM) NEUTRAL E. Kelly
CP: US$ 84.53 TP: US$ 90 CAP: US$ 15.3b
Surprisingly Strong Results Given Weakening Macro; Raising Estimates Again

Credit Suisse View: Whole Foods squashed recent concerns of slowing momentum, as the company reported another impressive quarter despite the weakening consumer environment. Strong sales and operational execution drove yet another beat and raise, and it’s clear the company’s underlying fundamentals remain robust. EPS of $0.63 exceeded consensus of $0.61 and our estimate of $0.60. Identical store sales rose 8.0% (8.6% excluding the Easter shift), in line with consensus, but the ID strength continued so far in Q4. The company also produced another quarter of strong gross margin expansion (up 62 bps vs. consensus of +30 bps), despite suggesting otherwise last quarter, and operating costs were a touch better than expected. New store productivity also remained strong, suggesting that recent smaller markets are performing well. WFM topped off the report with above consensus guidance for Q4’12 and 2013. While it’s clear that the company’s underlying fundamentals remain robust, we continue to struggle with valuation, especially against the backdrop of increased economic uncertainty. Consequently, we maintained our Neutral rating.

Key takeaways: (+) The company posted strong Q3 ID growth of +8.0% (including 62bps of negative impact due to the Easter shift). Transactions rose 7% and basket grew 1%, suggesting inflation has not been a meaningful benefit. (+) FIFO GM expansion of 52 bps was above our expectation of 20 bps, driven by largely by improvements in occupancy costs and CGS. (+) Operating margin expanded 104 bps to 6.9%. (+) Mgmt commentary on the performance of recently opened stores in smaller markets was constructive. Several data points were also encouraging including sales/sq ft of $786 and a 16% comp at stores less than two years old. (+) Management raised FY12 guidance by $0.05-$0.07, implying 4Q12 EPS of $0.59-$0.60, above current consensus of $0.57. The midpoint of initial FY13 guidance ($2.83-$2.87) is above consensus of $2.83.

Our estimates: We raised our FY’12 est. to $2.52 from $2.47. We raised our FY’13 est. to $2.87 from $2.78 and our FY ’14 est. to $3.29 from $3.16.

Potash Corp, a Cara 100 company, is an integrated fertilizer and related industrial and feed products company.

Today the stock was downgraded by equities research analysts at National Bank from a “sector perform” rating to an “underperform” rating. A week ago, analysts at CIBC downgraded shares of POT from a “sector outperform” rating to a “sector perform” rating… Today the company reported $1.01 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $1.02 by $0.01. The company’s revenue for the quarter, however, was up +3.1% on a year-over-year basis. On average, analysts are forecasting that Potash Corp will post $3.47 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Vad’s Catch of the Day

Kaimu’s Sound Money

Deron’s Daily ETF Analysis

Yesterday, on an uptick in volume, the Direxion Daily China Bear 3x ETF (YANG) formed a bullish engulfing candle, as it gapped down, held support of its trendline and the 20-day EMA, and reversed to close at session highs. Further, it marked the second consecutive day that YANG formed a bullish reversal candle. A volume propelled move above the two day high of $17.75 could present a buy entry trigger in this ETF. We are placing YANG on the watchlist. Trade details are available to our subscribers in the watchlist section of the newsletter.


Since Early June of this year, the ProShares UltraShort Basic Materials ETF (SMN) has made three attempts to break above resistance near $18.50. Over the past two sessions, this ETF has attempted to crack above this level for the fourth time. With each touch of a resistance level, the odds increase that the level will be broken. If SMN can find its way above this key mark on a burst of volume, this fourth test of this level could be what is needed to propel SMN to a fresh six month high.


The commentary above is an excerpt from The Wagner Daily newsletter, which we have been publishing since 2002. Subscribers to the full version receive our exact entry and exit prices for swing trades of our best technical ETF and stock picks, access to our market timing system, and more. To get started today, sign up for your 30-day risk-free subscription at or visit our trading blog to learn more about our short-term trading strategy.


Harp’s Roadmap

Cara on the Metalminers

Cara on the International Markets

CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report

CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

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  1. Good morning. 08:30 Jobless Claims (353,000) Full gubmint... [#111495]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    08:30 Jobless Claims (353,000) Full gubmint malarky here:
    08:30 Durable Goods (+1.6%)
    10:00 Pending Home Sales


    AAPL – PT Lowered from $740 to $735 @ Hilliard Lyons. Buy

    CAT – Caterpillar downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo following the company’s Q2 results citing higher inventories against a lower backlog and macroeconomic uncertainty. The firm lowered its price target range for shares to $88-$90 from $99-$102.

    NE – Noble Corporation downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman based on relative valuation.

    SLB – Schlumberger upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman based on relative valuation, increased global deepwater drilling activity, increased Russian drilling activity, and efficient execution. Price target raised to $95 from $88.

    TCK – PT Lowered from $43 to $39 @ Dahlman Rose. Buy

    WFM – PT Lifted from $104 to $106 @ Cantor Fitzgerald. Buy


    Mining Stocks:

    AU – PT Lowered from $71 to $69 @ HSBC. Overweight.

    AUY – Yamana Gold upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.

    GG – PT Lowered from $67 to $60 @ HSBC. Overweight.

    IAG – PT Lowered from $22.50 to $17.90 @ HSBC. Overweight.


    “I see men ordinarily more eager to discover a reason for things than to find out whether things are so.” ~ Michel de Montaigne

  2. You can pick up some of this on... [#111496]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    You can pick up some of this on

    BNN Morning Newsletter: July 26, 2012
    Barrick’s profit hit by soaring costs
    The chase by Noah Zivitz:

    This is the day Barrick Gold shareholders have been waiting for since Aaron Regent was shown the door. His successor, Jamie Sokalsky, will be in the hotseat at 9:30 a.m. ET when analysts pepper him with questions about his vision for the company. When all is said and done, we could have a much better understanding of what motivated the leadership change — and just how grandiose his vision is. To say nothing of what Mr. Munk has up his sleeve. Plenty of analysis ahead on the station.
    Of course, we’ll also have Barrick’s earnings to attend to. Lots of discussion about production and costs. And how about the peers? Goldcorp is also set to report, and might look to extinguish some of the fury over a recent cut to the production forecast. CEO Chuck Jeannes joins us at 2:30 p.m. ET. Long before that, Agnico-Eagle boss Sean Boyd sits down with Saijal and Marty to talk about his company’s beefed-up production outlook.
    Gotta love the commentary that comes with Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan’s quarterly results. Once you get past the $341-million charge it took in the second quarter, and adjusted profit that came in a fraction below consensus, we get the company’s views on recent drought conditions. “Difficult weather conditions in certain parts of the world are proving that nature doesn’t provide a free lunch.” Shareholders aren’t getting a free lunch, either. The full-year forecast has been trimmed, and the outlook for Q3 falls shy of consensus. Let’s ask whether now is the time to get into Potash, considering recent weather events.

  3. Actual/Consensus/Previous Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey... [#111497]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑


    Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Aug) for Germany 5.9 5.8 5.8

    Import Price Index (YoY) for Germany (date unknown) 1.3% 2.0% 2.2%

    M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jun) for EMU 3.2% 2.9% 3.1%

  4. We reviewed these three Cara 100 companies... [#111498]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    We reviewed these three Cara 100 companies above.

  5. I imagine those CELG $ 1.11's are looking pretty good now !... [#111499]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    I imagine those CELG $ 1.11′s are looking pretty good now ! Congrats !!

    • Hi Baz, it did help to take a nice profit on it this... [#111510]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Baz, it did help to take a nice profit on it this morning – I didn’t get close to the high;-) I appreciated the BS out of europe to give me that little pop. I added to my AIG, HD & NKE puts; too busy doing that and not paying close attention to CELG at the time…

      That SEED is really active.

  6. BA - estimates raised at UBS through 2013 to reflect beat... [#111500]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    BA – estimates raised at UBS through 2013 to reflect beat in quarter. Neutral rating and $72 price target.

    BA – Boeing estimates, target raised at Credit Suisse. Shares of BA now seen reaching $90. Estimates also increased, given the company’s new guidance.

    WFM – numbers raised at Jefferies. Shares of WFM now seen reaching $105. Estimates also raised on strong results. Buy rating.

    WFM – Whole Foods Market numbers raised at Citigroup. Shares of WFM now seen reaching $102. Estimates also increased on increased guidance and strong SSS momentum. Neutral rating.


    Mining Stocks:

    AEM – Agnico-Eagle upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotia Capital.

  7. Hi All - Being taken to the wood shed after Barrick noted... [#111502]
    By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi All – Being taken to the wood shed after Barrick noted they would not fund Donlin development in the near term, but will continue moving forward with permits etc. Initially thought it was an adjustment due to spinning off Nova Copper. Happy Trading

    • Hi Luggie, Had trouble replying to your email. Here's the... [#111504]
      By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Luggie,

      Had trouble replying to your email. Here’s the whole 9 yards:

      NovaGold plummets after Barrick raises doubts about gold deposit
      NovaGold (NG) is retreating after Barrick Gold (ABX) indicated that it may not invest significant amounts of money in a gold deposit in which the two companies each have a 50% ownership stake. Barrick said that the Alaska-based Donlin gold deposit doesn’t currently meet its investment criteria, primarily because of the large initial capital investment required to launch it. However, Barrick did add that Donlin represents a “valuable long-term opportunity,” partly due to its long life mineral resources. Moreover, Barrick added that it would advance permitting activities at the site at reasonable costs, giving it the option to undertake construction there in the future. In early trading, however, NovaGold tumbled $1.67, or 31.04%, to $3.71. Barrick, meanwhile, sank $2.47, or 7.31%, to $31.32.


  8. Tom McClellan's EURO / USD /Gold... [#111503]
    By: Bev (804 comments) Go to top ↑

    Tom McClellan’s EURO / USD /Gold chart

  9. "the worst is over" around March 22. The markets topped out... [#111505]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

    “the worst is over” around March 22. The markets topped out shortly after that and it actually started getting worse.

    We live in interesting times!

  10. "Lessons From the Trader Wizard (2012)" is now on sale at... [#111507]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    “Lessons From the Trader Wizard (2012)” is now on sale at

    The Amazon link for the US is:

    In the UK:

    Jack will ensure that clients and those who attended the Cara Conferences will receive a complimentary copy. Thank you, and thanks to all those who helped get the book to the market.

    I do plan to write at least one follow-up book that will get into more advanced trading methods I use.

  11. Look at ABX press release today and why they disappointed... [#111508]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

    Look at ABX press release today and why they disappointed the market.

    Look at GG press release about two weeks ago and why they disappointed the market.

    Look at press release about two weeks ago and why they disappointed the market.

    and so on…

    Once all the bad news is priced in, it will be time to buy again. Timing is the only thing!

    • ballena, I thought Alamos Gold (AGI.TO) produced a solid... [#111511]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑


      I thought Alamos Gold (AGI.TO) produced a solid report today.

      FD: No holding on account that my associate Tony Garson is a corporate director. The same is true of Kingsrose Mining (KRM.ASX), where Chris Start is a director. Kingsrose published a very good report this week and also announced that they will be trading ADRs on the US OTC market.

      Btw, Tony Garson is also a director of Argex Titanium (RGX.V), but I invested in that company either before Garson became a director or before I was aware he was involved in the company, and I have not made additional trades since then. When my original price target is reached, I’ll sell.

      Because of the way that the Euro and Precious Metals were bumped higher today, i.e., with the statement from the president of the ECB, I think the jury is still out as to whether that brief move is sustainable or not.

      • Agnico (AEM) looks good again after having been a dog for a... [#111520]
        By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

        Agnico (AEM) looks good again after having been a dog for a long time. A long base was formed early this year, followed by a break out and then a back test. Today it is up against resistance on 3x average daily volume. That one looks like a promising runner once the game will be on again.

        some positives:

        a) GLD/GDX has not yet set a new high after the May high this year
        2) ABX regained most of today’s losses. Seniors generally lead the trend.

  12. My friends in the Caribbean are very unhappy with the... [#111509]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    My friends in the Caribbean are very unhappy with the electrical power service they are receiving (when they manage to get it) from Canada’s Emera (EMA.TO).


  13. talking about the ESM.... just yet. Oh My, Draghi came... [#111512]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    talking about the ESM…. just yet. Oh My, Draghi came close, but no roses just yet. Yep, the ESM is not yet fully up and running ( hence the ” possibly Sept. action ” talk on ECB/LTRO action. Edwin Nowonty, president of the bank of Aus., and a very influential council member of the ECB, said arguments are to made giving the ESM a ‘ banking license ‘ – this implication being the ESM could have infinite buying power, because it could borrow from the ECB ( thanks Fleck ).. In other words, it could do the ECB’s dirty work, with a smile : )

    • For your entertainment, from Twitter exchange: PIMCO... [#111513]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      For your entertainment, from Twitter exchange:

      PIMCO @PIMCO Gross:
      Spanish yields drop 50 basis on #Draghi. No matter. They need 400 basis more to remain solvent longer term.

      Vadym Graifer @RealityTrader
      @PIMCO #Draghi will simply say it 8 times more, and voila – 400 basis. Math, man, math!

  14. I mentioned this one a couple weeks back. This one is going... [#111515]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    I mentioned this one a couple weeks back. This one is going parabolic to new all time highs on a report they are in discussion with Shell to sell a stake in their PNG gas project. The oil majors are all jockeying for position on this play though so it’s far from over. Appears something very big is in the works. I own this one via a small cap fund that has this as their largest position.

  15. Shamelessly talking my book as I took a flier on the SEP $9... [#111517]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    Shamelessly talking my book as I took a flier on the SEP $9 Calls.

    Here’s to lottery ticket holders everywhere…

    Give us QE to infinity, but by all means keep everyone’s 401(k) in the black.

  16. ... [#111518]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Coxe thesis, and I've seen corroborated elsewhere is that... [#111519]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      Coxe thesis, and I’ve seen corroborated elsewhere is that farmers are going to be rich with subsidies and crop insurance and will have spending money for years to come. Better for N than K, but still POT could surprise to upside over next year.

  17. Our friend Monroe copied me about a discussion about which... [#111521]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Our friend Monroe copied me about a discussion about which I think we all should be thinking or expressing our views on.


    It occurs to me that there are as many (or more) “prominent scientists” that say that global warming is a natural cycle and not the fault of excess carbon in the environment. I am of the opinion that soft coal and other contaminants emit nasty stuff and should be regulated, but the whole “carbon credit scheme” looks to be mostly a sham way to rip off huge amounts of cash which you know will end up in all the wrong places. Countries like China and Russia pollute much more than we do and do little or nothing to control it. In fact they look to cash in many billions in “carbon credits” they have amassed while we (the ultimate bad guys) would be shelling out trillions to the poor underdeveloped countries of the world. I’m sure they would use it all to make the earth greener (not)! … Al Gore, with his 4 or 5 monster size homes and private jets to get around is a real shining example of how to reduce ones “carbon footprint”. Everyone else should sacrifice and use less energy! Won’t his new $9 mil CA digs be underwater in a couple of years with the oceans rising so rapidly??? He is total bullshit! He’s dying for “Cap & Trade” with his 10% ownership of the Chicago Carbon Exchange to add to his millions! … Sorry, I just can’t buy it!


    • The easiest and perhaps an unwitting way to lose a... [#111527]
      By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

      The easiest and perhaps an unwitting way to lose a friend/customer is to state your belief that global warming is a hoax, or at best, in doubt and ‘unproven.’

      The is a certain religious ferver attached to the global warming crusade that is best left undebated. I understand the financial implications of carbon credits, competitive industrial production advantages and the have nots, so-called, wanting a near term pass. And yes, it is another horse to be harnessed by our Wall Street trader types.

      I fear ‘global warming’ will be used as a ruse for many Western countries to implement protectionist trade policies…and we know where that leads!

      I look at the debate as the ying yang of where you live. Global warming?…good for Canada. Global cooling?…good for Mexico.

      Ancient Egyptian paintings depict sylvan scenes and lush pampa in what is now an area of increasing desertifacation but was beginning as far back a Roman times. There are cycles of history and GRAND cycles of nature which we may not yet comprehend.

      As an investment theme, it’s probably a bit too soon to plan for orange orchards in Nantucket…

    • ... [#111528]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
    • ... [#111533]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  18. But this is not Facebook's fault. It is soley on the... [#111522]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    But this is not Facebook’s fault. It is soley on the shoulders of the underwriters who brought this ipo out.

    Is wall st a sales engine or fiduciary? Regardless if FB execs say we make X revenue, Y earnings and Z profit, it “assumed” wall st analysts and ivy league prissies will warn the public.

    I know at least half a dozen friends who bought the week of ipo, catching the falling knife. their brokers pitching “think long term,” “buy it and forget it” “you cant trade the market – think long term and you will win” etc etc.

    I tried to warn my friends. Sigh…

    This is wall st at it’s best! many in custom suits are laughing their ass off to the bank to count your money in their new Ferrari F12 Berlinetta.

    Companies with crazy valuations such as FB, Pandora, etc etc etc must be regulated prior to ipo. Looking at their user base, blah blah, i say fair value is $15 USD.

    Good luck.

    No position in FB. Same mistakes just repeating over and over and over and over again. As Jesse Livermore said… “there is nothing new on wall street.”

  19. both to upside and downside. we have reached critical... [#111523]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    both to upside and downside. we have reached critical velocity, where we can no longer slow down in a controlled fashion.

    An analogy would be a ferrari F1 race car with no breaks and infinite fuel and many hair pin turns.

  20. I have compiled a mass of technical analysis that I... [#111524]
    By: SyncMaster152T (166 comments) Go to top ↑

    I have compiled a mass of technical analysis that I personally commit to when looking at charts. The information I have written has come from the books of Guy Cohen and Bill. I have found it to be very useful, and have only included what I believe to be the most significant technical analysis. I rarely trade without consulting most, if not all, of the technical analysis in this document.

    I will be posting this word document tomorrow. It will be to share with this community, as a token of my thorough appreciation for what Bill, Geoff, NYUGrad, Vadym, Baz, Earl and many others have shared. I am currently trying to fix some of the charts in the document, to better explain each technical analysis.

    The majority of the information is basic. Many of you already use these technicals in your own trading, but I believe it will teach many newcomers and perhaps be a quick glance to remind some of you of the basic, yet useful indicators.

  21. Another great conference location this year---see... [#111526]
    By: moragakd (47 comments) Go to top ↑

    Another great conference location this year—see

    Hope to make it!

  22. ... [#111530]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Les writes, "The GOP can't be serious fronting this guy in... [#111531]
      By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

      Les writes,

      “The GOP can’t be serious fronting this guy in the November elections. That means more of the same old, same old for the next 4 years.”

      I guess you were thinking that the GOP stands for change. Think again, the same old same old is what these two parties are about. It’s more clear now than ever.

    • Les, "The GOP can't be serious fronting this guy in the... [#111537]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑


      “The GOP can’t be serious fronting this guy in the November elections. That means more of the same old, same old for the next 4 years.”

      I had the same feeling with the McCain/Palin ticket.

      It is my view that the kingmakers are satisfied with either of the two choices and all of these many months have been Kabuki theatre. I am also doubtful our election process is legitimate. Huge numbers of votes will be “processed” by invisible handlers.

      For decades we have been aware the Chicago political machine is crooked. “Chicago: Where old voters never die.” is Obama’s alma mater. Take a look at it today with Rahm Emanuel at the helm.