Bill Cara’s Blog for Jan 9, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[9:15am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Friday’s much anticipated employment data did little to move the stock market. The market is overbought and had a chance to use the number as a catalyst to fall, but it did not.

There are two ways that a market can work off a former move; through price or time. In other words, the market can work off a recent run via a price reversal or through a sideways chop. The former is, of course, a reversal. The latter is a continuation pattern. We are waiting to see which one of the two will come to fruition.

Recent AAII data shows that bearish sentiment is near multiyear lows, which means that traders are not worried about a sell off. Sentiment is extremely important because the majority is usually wrong. The market needs to make new highs or the risk of a decline increases dramatically and as long as the US dollar continues to rally, that potential decline grows in price potential.

Recent economic data has been positive. I know that many of us question the validity of that data due to the “massaging” effects from government bean counters, but it is what it is. The important thing to watch is not the data itself, but how the market trades off of that data. We are here to make money, not argue about government data. With that said, the recent data tells us that the economy is moving along without falling off a cliff and the market is agreeing with the headline numbers. If that data does not change trend, the upcoming earnings season will be very important and corporate outlook on the future will be key.

We are at a crossroads in so many areas right now. Will the dollar breakout or fail? Will the euro absolutely fall apart or will there be a short squeeze that leads to a sharp reversal? What is going on with recent correlations between the dollar and stocks/gold? Those answers are obviously unknown yet many traders place big bets at crossroad periods and consequently lose a lot of money in the process. This is not a time to place big bets, in my opinion. Fortunately, we have taken advantage of the recent rally in stocks, but we are not going to push the envelope prior to price move confirmation.

As you know, we are long stocks and gold but are also hedged and ready to take additional protective action if needed. If the market moves higher, the hedges come off, if the market moves lower, the hedges are added to. It is a simple strategy that allows us to react to prices, not take bets.

Caution is warranted.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 1,869.00 6:05AM EST Down 41.00 (2.15%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,091.25 6:59AM EST Down 2.02 (0.10%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,132.29 6:59AM EST Down 5.07 (0.16%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,043.10 6:44AM EST Down 14.82 (0.24%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 312.57 6:44AM EST Up 1.46 (0.47%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 451.04 6:44AM EST Up 0.91 (0.20%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 311.83 7:00AM EST Down 1.29 (0.41%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,005.98 6:45AM EST Down 7.85 (0.13%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,642.80 6:44AM EST Down 6.88 (0.12%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 890.60 6:59AM EST Down 3.80 (0.42%) Chart, More
ESI500000000.MA IGBM 833.51 6:40AM EST Up 5.33 (0.64%) Components, Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,441.83 7:45AM EST Up 2.88 (0.20%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 642.44 6:45AM EST Down 5.14 (0.79%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth

From Geoff to Jeff

I always read Geoff’s opening remarks before posting most days because in addition to his thoughtful commentary I like it when we are both have similar thoughts on our mind about markets.

This morning I was thinking about the recent down-tick in the unemployment rate in the US and market reaction to it. Most interesting was media commentary about the report; it encapsulated much of what is wrong with financial punditry in the mainstream media.

Commentary tended towards disbelief as in “how accurate is this number, can we really be certain jobs were created?” or cynicism about the nature of employment itself, “there may be more jobs but what kind of jobs are they?”. The principal difficulty with employment statistics is that we rely so heavily on them as bellwethers of the economy but they tell us only part of the jobs story. But quality of jobs is hardly quantitative, reports about “poorly paid service” jobs making up the bulk of new employment sounds bad, it sounds like a poor foundation upon which to rebuild your economy but it neglects to consider what life is like for those with no job, on government benefits and the psychological stress of searching for work while caring for a family.

Many jobs start out poorly paid, contract or part-time before moving into full time, benefit-contributing work. Far from ideal, but far better than food-stamps and welfare lines. So long as more people are finding some kind of gainful employment, and more people are returning to the job market to assume said employment, the general state of the economy can only be better than the alternative which is ongoing entitlements, black-market labour and the kind of soul-crushing depression that can accompany long-term unemployment.

Its the “best of a bad situation” argument, and it is hardly a nuanced one, I know. The issue being that the constant barrage of “America and Europe are going to hell in a hand-basket” is all too commonplace, and lacks any real nuanced examination of what is actually good news. What would make the mainstream media happy? Drastic declines in unemployment comprised of well-paying skilled labour jobs in rust-belt regions with medical benefits, pensions and the promise of decades of uninterrupted work? In addition the industries granting these jobs would have to be in green and or environmentally sustainable industries, provide ample benefits and sick-time for parents, and be located in a region where people can ride their bikes to work.

Im exaggerating for effect but the point is clear: more people working, more people encouraged to go back out and look for work is better than people not working. Under-employment is a key catchphrase these days, it implies that people will accept jobs that are below their skill-set. It ignores that this is very often a temporary state of affairs for those who can rise through the ranks of a given organization. Anyone who has worked for a bank, government or large corporation understands that a college educated person of average to above-average ability can at the very least rise from mail-room staff to a typical white-collar desk job after some time. CEO? probably not, but there is no such place where the economy is growing on the backs of perfectly suitable, well paying jobs all the time. People make moves, sacrifice, take pay cuts or take chances to do something to improve their situation.

At any given time millions are lining up around the world in hopes of coming to the United States (and to a lesser extent Canada!), they must not be reading most newspapers that do nothing but speak of blight, depression and dwindling opportunity decade after decade since the 70′s. The media is always behind the curve on economic issues, and my feeling is the next decade will prove them wrong again. I don’t believe we are heading into a period of prosperity as much as we are continuing to simply get a bit better year over year as we have for the past century or so. No biggie!!!!

Que stories about the Toronto Condo market crashing, about dwindling supplies of food that never seem to materialize, about high energy prices around the corner that aren’t coming true or war in the middle east that is in reality one massive OCCUPY protest that is more peaceful than any regional coup in decades. Europe suffered the lost of almost 100 million people after World War 2, their cities and hearts were shattered, and somehow they continued. People speak of a collapse of Europe if the retirement age is raised by two years, or if governments trim budgets… riots are common at soccer matches in Europe, yet when they take place in front of government buildings we run for the exits changing Euro’s for US dollars!!!

If Europe does indeed collapse, it will be because of a large-scale inability to see how generations prior have survived much worse for much longer than anything we see today.

Jeff Borsato
jeffborsato@caratrading.com


  1. 11:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month... [#103319]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 11:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction
    • 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction
    • 3:00 PM ET Consumer Credit
  2. Accumulation Zone: Monthly 0, Weekly 0, Daily... [#103320]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 0, Weekly 0, Daily 0
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 0, Weekly 0, Daily 0

    The RSI summary is broken due to fact that the underlying Cara RSI information is currently not working.

    • I have not been able to get the RSI tool to work on any... [#103324]
      By: writersblock (7 comments) Go to top ↑

      I have not been able to get the RSI tool to work on any stock, even ones not in the Cara 100.

  3. trying to find out what's wrong with Unicredit on Milan's... [#103321]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    trying to find out what’s wrong with Unicredit on Milan’s bourse, down 41%. Look’s like it’s being thrown to the wolves. See attached.

  4. Good morning. 15:00 Consumer Credit ------ AAPL ... [#103322]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    15:00 Consumer Credit

    ——

    AAPL – estimates, target increased at Goldman through 2012, Goldman Sachs said. Company appears to be selling more iPhones. Buy rating and new $550 price target.

    APA – estimates raised at Oppenheimer through 2012, Oppenheimer said. Estimates update based on oil & gas futures price changes. Outperform rating.

    BA – target raised at UBS to $72 to reflect the roll forward of DCF analysis, UBS said. Maintain $72 price target.

    BRCM – PT Lowered from $45 to $41 @ FBR. Outperform

    BRCM – Broadcom upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with a $35 price target after raising its rating on the semiconductor sector to Overweight.

    COST – Costco downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein based on rich valuation margin pressures given the competitive environment. Price target lowered to $76 from $80.

    JCP – upgraded at Deutsche from Sell to Hold, Deutsche Bank said. $32 price target. New management is restructuring, but large changes are necessary.

    MRK – Merck downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies downgraded Merck based on valuation. Price target raised to $40 from $37.

    ORCL – Oracle downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital. Checks indicate overall software spending has slowed in the second half of November and could extend into 1Q12. As a result, the firm downgraded Oracle given the slowdown in demand. Price target lowered to $30 from $32.

    TTM – Tata Motors downgraded to Sell from Buy at Deutsche Bank citing valuation and weak demand for the company’s India business.

    ——

    Other Stocks of Possible Interest:

    CDE – downgraded at BMO to Market Perform, BMO Capital said. $32.50 price target. Company is facing lower silver prices.

    KGC – Kinross Gold upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank with an $18 price target citing its bullish stance on gold.

    NEM – Newmont Mining downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank citing valuation and lowered its price target for shares to $64 from $77.

    NEM – Newmont Mining upgraded to Sector Performer from Sector Underperformer at CIBC.

    ——

    “The fundamental cause of trouble in the world is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”
    - Bertrand Russell (1872-1970)

  5. Looks like Unicredit is halted due to share issuance via a... [#103325]
    By: nebish (297 comments) Go to top ↑

    Looks like Unicredit is halted due to share issuance via a rights offering at a super deep discount. This is Italy’s largest bank. I think that we’re seeing pretty clearly that the Euro banks can’t raise cash. They also can’t mark their sovereign debt holdings to market. They are parking a ton of cash at the ECB in a desperate attempt to meet capital ratios.

    It seems to me that Europe is a hair’s breadth away from a full on banking crisis. I don’t see a comprehensive political system in place to respond to it.

    Hard to commit funds long term to anything when Europe consistently fails to aggresively deal with its sovereign debt/banking problems. Europe appears certain to slide into recession here any quarter.

  6. in the face of bad European news. Is the expected rebound... [#103326]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    in the face of bad European news.

    Is the expected rebound from oversold coming?

  7. if the following graph is correct, total debt in the UK is... [#103327]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    if the following graph is correct, total debt in the UK is over 900% of GDP, a mind numbing figure. 2012 Olympics – the straw that breaks the camel’s back?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/psssst-france-here-w

    sourced from the following Congressional testimony, which is worth reading in its own right:

    http://oversight.house.gov/images/stories/Testimon

    • Interesting number higher than I suspected, but totally... [#103328]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      Interesting number higher than I suspected, but totally makes sense as the UK empire have been falling for like 90+ years now. US empire have been falling “only” since early 1970′s (except for the mid 1980s-2000 interruption) and total US debt is like 400% IIRC. Total debt of japan exceeds 500%. Most western countries are near 300%. The problem is different sources show different numbers.

      Edit: I just looked at the chart posted at zerohedge and was surprised by the numbers as the US % is much lower and Europe much higher compared to the numbers I saw published in 2009/2010. It’s hard for me to believe USA improved so much since.

  8. If these auctions go well the Euro should do well and... [#103330]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    If these auctions go well the Euro should do well and possibly start the reversal that people seem to anticipate.

    –Tuesday, Jan. 10: Ireland’s troika of lenders expected to start latest review of country’s bailout program. Greek T-bill auction.

    –Wednesday, Jan. 11: ECB seven-day dollar operation. German bond auction. German Chancellor Angela Merkel meets Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti.

    –Wednesday, Jan. 11, and Thursday, Jan. 12: European Commission visits Danish presidency in Copenhagen.

    –Thursday, Jan. 12: ECB interest rate statement and press conference. Spanish bond and Italian T-bill auctions.

    –Friday, Jan. 13: Italian bond auction.

  9. On the 10th,11th and 13th. Until then... [#103331]
    By: Sedona (77 comments) Go to top ↑

    On the 10th,11th and 13th. Until then …ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

  10. New ETF that holds companies building the cloud. This is a... [#103332]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    New ETF that holds companies building the cloud. This is a secular trend. I view it as a solid long term hold.

  11. ... [#103333]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
    • what if... Get over this pipe dream. Compare the corporate... [#103337]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      what if…

      Get over this pipe dream. Compare the corporate donations for Paul vs Romney. The winner is obvious and well paid for by HB&B. I posted about it on weekend.

    • Grym, I've been reflecting on the dialogue here at Cara... [#103344]
      By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

      Grym,

      I’ve been reflecting on the dialogue here at Cara about your subject and others related. The phrase “bought and paid for” is properly thrown around but it is seldom used in reference to the voting public. It seems like too many people I rub shoulders with have no clue as to how they have been bought and paid for by bubble economics and federal funds that contribute to their comforts. When I hear the phrase , “It’s the economy stupid”, I think of how the US tolerates “leaderless representation” in DC, as long as they throw a few bucks our way and give lip service to our pet issues. Paul might have done a better job, but would the voting public stand behind a leader with vision and conviction if it takes personal sacrifice? That has happened during war times, and just maybe the time is coming when the voting public can back leaders that go to war against the status quo?

      This election cycle does not contain any change agents outside of Ron Paul, and his ship is sunk. But his work just might continue unless the American public is bought by another “bubble boom” in the making.

      DB

  12. Cross currents. On the supportive side to the equity stock... [#103334]
    By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

    Cross currents.

    On the supportive side to the equity stock markets:

    1) TLT showing signs of a topping process long term. I’m hoping as money flowing out of L.T. bonds will find its way into equities.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&yr=3&mn=0

    2) $USD long term appears to be Overbought and is due for a correction. Resistance around 82ish. Commodities in general should benefit as $USD comes down.
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickc

    3) Euro’s long term seems to be Oversold and nearing support 1.25ish. This should also be supportive to commodities.
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickc

    On the negative side to the markets :

    1) many stocks are at or near their short / intermediate term overbought levels

    2) sentiments are showing bullishness conducive to topping process (works as contrary indicators)

    3) Baltic Dry Index had a big drop since the beginning of 2012 but thankfully nearing its oversold levels. I don’t really know if this is so good as a timing tool.

    Which way are we heading ? Up or down in coming days/weeks ? your thought ?

  13. *(US) NOV CONSUMER CREDIT: $20.4B V $7.0BE (largest one... [#103335]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    *(US) NOV CONSUMER CREDIT: $20.4B V $7.0BE (largest one month increase since 2001)

    - Prior revised lower from $7.65B to $6.02B
    - Total consumer credit annual rate +9.9%
    - Revolving credit $5.6B; 8.5% annual rate
    - Non Revolving credit $14.8B; 10.7% annual rate

    **NOTE: earlier today Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that US credit card use +25% y/y during holiday season.

    • Count me in for that credit increase. Chase freedom was... [#103336]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      Count me in for that credit increase. Chase freedom was giving away $300 for new customers in December. I applied for myself and my wife (2 separate accounts).

    • Hmm. That's not even remotely deflationary. Consumer... [#103339]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hmm. That’s not even remotely deflationary.

      Consumer credit is 2.5T – approximately 6.5% of the 38T total credit market in the US reported on the Fed Z1. During the crash consumer credit shrank by -115B in 2009. In 2011 it was growing, but about half its normal rate.

      As a point of reference, 100B is 0.66% of our 15T economy. Mortgages account for 10T in credit; during the boom years, they grew at 1T per year annual rate – for 5 years! And Ilya says it was granite countertops that caused the bubble!

      Thats why the USG wants the housing bubble back so badly. Trillions in money printing being poured right into housing prices, sucked out in mortgage equity withdrawls, and then promptly spent on consumer goodies. Including granite countertops.

      The consumer credit number bears watching. I’m surprised retail sales weren’t better.

      • "and Ilya says it was granite countertops that caused the... [#103351]
        By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

        “and Ilya says it was granite countertops that caused the bubble!”

        I appologize. I didn’t mean what I never said.

        Have you ever built anything? Perhaps a house, a tree house, birdhouse or anything commercial? Have you ever had to build to code and paid impact fees to a municipality for road use, fire protection and general municiple overhead to make sure you weren’t cheating? If you have then you may understand replacement costs and upgrades and complience costs.

        My point was simply that the quality of the housing stock built over the last 10+ years is far better (and much more costly) than 20 or 30 years ago.

        Let me give you an example. Thirty years ago a typical new home build was not particularly energy efficient. The finish outs included tiled or cute patterned formica countertops, acrylic carpet in the living area, congoleum resilient flooring in the kitchen and gameroom and single paned aluminum windows. If you used a septic system, a couple of concrete tanks and graveled lateral lines sufficed. No More. Building codes have changed (for the better)but ….oh well you get my point.

        I would argue that we experienced a simple debt orgy that manifested itself in housing. It could have been tulips or moonrocks but housing ownership for the masses was an easier sell and the banksters as well as the GSE’s et al said ‘hot damn. Look at the 20% VIG.”

        Inflation is subtle. Unlike the plague it evinces itself over generations. Today we have in the Western countries very stagnant economic growth. Inflation as measured pre Boskin Commission is running modestly at 5 to 7% per annum. I would define this as stagflation. Add in the purchasing power lost with a ZIRP policy and today is worse than the 70′s…….

        Consumer debt is on the rise? Perhaps Joe Bob the sheetrock hanger is finally realizing that his dollar ain’t worth didly squat and wants to treat his family to a new toaster oven and backyard meat smoker. Who knows?

        Hyperinflation will probably not occur in this country. I figure it will top out around 15 to 20% before the rebellion causes Daddy to Take the T-Bird away!

        Be careful in T-Land. I understand that the current government may not play nice with those with money.

        • Ilya - Apology accepted! I really do understand about... [#103354]
          By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

          Ilya -

          Apology accepted!

          I really do understand about inflation.

          And I’m glad we agree that we experienced a debt orgy that manifested itself in housing. Mortgage debt doubled in 5 years. Granite or no granite, 5 trillion is a lot of money.

          And the double whammy from losses in assets and wages combined with price increases in taxes, energy, and food make for a lethal brew from the standard of living perspective.

          And the more Bernanke tries to inflate, the more the energy & food costs rise.

          If he were clever, he’d start printing money and buying homes. Then inflation would go exactly where he wanted it to. Perhaps the servicers can bundle serviced REO-rental property into a security and he can go buy it from them.

          Hmm. Come to think of it, its not a bad idea. He wants to inflate housing prices, that’s one way to do it. A public-private home-price inflation partnership. Dump 2 trillion directly into the housing market and you’d definitely move the needle. Let’s see, 2 Trillion @ 180k per house = 11 million houses. Heck, 1 Trillion would be enough. There’d be no REO property left. Seems too easy.

        • Ilya - "My point was simply that the quality of the... [#103367]
          By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

          Ilya -

          “My point was simply that the quality of the housing stock built over the last 10+ years is far better (and much more costly) than 20 or 30 years ago.”

          True, code requirements are superior but materials are often low quality in McMansionland: Vinyl siding and windows, low ashphalt content shingles with a sub-10-year life, faux everything, off-gasing patrolium products everywhere especially in the insulation, PVC vs. copper/iron, wood-frame chimneys, hollow doors, plated hardware vs. solid brass, veneered wood floors, and, of course, RADIO ACTIVE marble countertops …

  14. IWM Volume: 37,861,960 Avg Vol (3m):... [#103338]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    IWM
    Volume: 37,861,960
    Avg Vol (3m): 64,064,900

    SPY
    Volume: 37,861,960
    Avg Vol (3m): 64,064,900

    XLF
    Volume: 36,026,488
    Avg Vol (3m): 99,618,800

    unless you were in a select few stocks like NFLX, snoozer session so far

  15. Environment groups 'threaten to hijack' system, says... [#103340]
    By: Spyder (43 comments) Go to top ↑

    Environment groups ‘threaten to hijack’ system, says Canada’s environment minister.

    http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/09/joe-o

  16. smh soxx skyy xlk xsd all performed today. Las Vegas CE... [#103342]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    smh soxx skyy xlk xsd all performed today. Las Vegas CE show could provide more sizzle.

  17. Rui Feng is going to get them and also their mothers... [#103345]
    By: lowpickr (153 comments) Go to top ↑

    Rui Feng is going to get them and also their mothers apparently:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silvercorp-sues-j

    There will be no doubts after the updated NI 43-101 technical reports are completed by AMC.

    • Silvercorp , filed an amended lawsuit in the Supreme Court... [#103356]
      By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

      Silvercorp , filed an amended lawsuit in the Supreme Court of the State of New York, County of New York . That should bring in Sunlight to disinfect . Heres hoping there some rule of law left in New York .

  18. Nice 6.5% raise in PMV last night. Seems to have been a lot... [#103347]
    By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

    Nice 6.5% raise in PMV last night. Seems to have been a lot of resistance in PMI dropping too far below the 1.00 value. Does anyone have any thoughts on the future price action of PMV after its meteoric rise in October from 0.5 to 1.2?. Given the volatility and turbulence recently is this worth holding onto as a LONG or cash in while the sun is still shining?

  19. Knocked down by Motorola's disappointing sales. They didn't... [#103348]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Knocked down by Motorola’s disappointing sales. They didn’t buy for handset business but for patents in the silly game of defense against infringement lawsuits. Doesn’t affect other secular trends GOOG is accelerating into. I heard recently they are bidding on bandwidth left vacant by the disappearance of analogue TV signals. Lots going on behind the scenes. Could be a nice entry point.

    • I like the company, but what would be your potential... [#103350]
      By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

      I like the company, but what would be your potential target? I find Google hard to trade as it is one of the gappiest stocks around. And now has retraced back into this very wide range box

      http://bit.ly/zjCjil

      thx in advance.

      • I'm not the one to answer that but I've seen a target of... [#103353]
        By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

        I’m not the one to answer that but I’ve seen a target of $3000 over time which may just make board participants laugh, but I believe there is growth ahead with Chrome OS and Browser which I find much more able than IE. 250m Android devices in use, 750,000 Android activations per day, seems like a tsunami to me. GOOG seems to have broken out, hobbled temporarily by the MMI issue. To me they are a very significant cloud player and want to be placing location based ads in front of you wherever you are, on whatever device you are using. I’m gravitating towards the ETF’s I mentioned and especially considering SKYY. From CES: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/01/0

  20. http://bit.ly/xQZ6Z8 the link has my areas if you trade... [#103349]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://bit.ly/xQZ6Z8
    the link has my areas if you trade jpm. i do not, but i follow it.

    The real show will be Jan 24 Apple’s earnings.

  21. Dollar rolls to melt futures up during Asia trading - let's... [#103352]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    Dollar rolls to melt futures up during Asia trading – let’s see if the indexes can hold those gains today. Uncle Buck has developed a broadening wedge (see attached), so I look around for some indications of what could follow. The following post is as good as any:

    http://stock-chartist.com/2010/05/ever-see-ascendi

    So, support above 78 as an immediate target for the dollar here if 80 is broken?

    I sound like a broken record, but the weekly charts are all geared up for a move, but a trigger is required. $CRB, GDX:$gold, XLY:XLP, all testing resistance.

    As Geoff said, people place bets at times like this and risk losing if their direction is wrong. So, just wait for a solid directional move to begin.

    CAD and AUD still building in their triangles. Brandt for one hates diagonal line setups – in some way he mirrors Vad but in a much longer time frame. If you’ve taken Vad’s 111 Trades course, you’ll see the DBI’s, JBE’s and C&H are clean horizantal support and resistance setups for the most part. The advantages of such should be apparent.

    Still sitting at the crossroads. Jesse calls it the calm before the storm. Hmmm we shall see.

    • I'm liking silver:gold today. Euro showing higher lows and... [#103355]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      I’m liking silver:gold today. Euro showing higher lows and higher highs on the 5 minute chart. E-minis 5 points away from a cycle high. Let’s see if it lasts into the NY open.

      • yeh cross that 30 line for silver and it could be game on... [#103357]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        yeh cross that 30 line for silver and it could be game on for more than just a session. gawd I wish I didn’t have to give up UXG. At least the setup was spot on. Silver prices look to be stabilising, although further downside is quite possible if resistance is ultimately respected here.

  22. ...and the ECB... [#103361]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    …and the ECB backstop.

    http://video.ft.com/v/1377016222001/French-banks-c

    French banks have substantial exposure to Greece and Italy and have struggled to finance themselves. Recent data released by the ECB reveals that French banks are almost the only ones to have taken advantage of the new weaker collateral rules.