Bill Cara’s Blog for Jan 20, 2011 [See post-close report]

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

About 90 minutes before the North American equity markets opened yesterday, there was the start of a lift to the US Dollar and sell-off first in the Canadian Dollar and then the Euro. Then shortly after the equity market opened at 9:30am ET, the precious metals and the related stocks were sent down along with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 indexes. Immediately the equity markets in Europe sold down. Traders as well as media sought and offered up their own versions of an explanation. With the amount of misinformation flying about, confusion reigned.

The one significant fact that I will base my thinking on, at this point, is that the US Dollar is breaking down, not reversing to the upside. As the Dollar weakens, the equity, commodity and precious metal prices lift, as they have since mid-June 2010 and in particular since Bernanke gave his QE2 speech at the Fed-sponsored gathering in Wyoming in August. Then starting in November the People’s Bank of China began a series of policy moves to thwart the rise in inflation the authorities fear in that country, and that helped strengthen the Dollar for a month or two, which has taken the steam out of rising equity, commodity and precious metals prices. But now the Dollar is falling again, sending the Euro higher.

As I see it, all capital markets have succumbed to the pressures of the currency trade. At the end of the day, it’s one currency dropping after another against gold. Along the way there are and will be periods of profit taking, not only in gold, but in all markets, but as time marches on unless the G-20 governments are able to get their debts and deficit spending under control and the banks are able to realign their holdings of debt with the economic value of assets that brought about (and support) that debt, gold will continue to lift in price.

So far this morning, the equity markets Europe continue to sell off.

blog11_jan_20.1.gif

blog11_jan_20.2.gif

The US Dollar appears ready to drop to a 52-week low. Should that happen, gold will again be the principal safe-haven trade.

blog11_jan_20.3.gif

Goldman Sachs (GS), which did beat earnings forecasts despite what some headlines state, is down to $166.00 in pre-market trading. That’s a considerable sell-off over two days from $175.00, which had been a high since April.

EBAY, however, is looking good so far this morning.

Have a good day.


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,858.27 6:41AM EST Down 53.61 (1.84%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,619.57 6:59AM EST Down 21.21 (0.80%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,959.60 6:59AM EST Down 17.11 (0.43%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,027.75 6:43AM EST Down 55.01 (0.78%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 355.00 6:41AM EST Down 2.96 (0.83%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 477.60 6:41AM EST Down 6.29 (1.30%) Components, Chart, More
^SMSI Madrid General N/A 0.00 (0.00%) Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 363.47 6:59AM EST Down 4.62 (1.25%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,485.32 6:44AM EST Down 74.34 (1.13%) Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,889.84 6:41AM EST Down 86.86 (1.45%) Components, Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day

After making a few nice trades on a short side we switched to longs. This particular trade is a classic pullback entry. After making a high at $53.50, X pulled back, formed a bottom at $52.90, bounced, retreated and danced a little around $53, creating a low-risk long entry, Notice also a small Inverted Head and Shoulder formed here – I am not a big fan of this formation, but if it appears in addition to other signals, why not use it as supplementary. The profit target was placed near the previous high, considering that lunch time is not very favorable for new highs. X did break higher in a few minutes though.

x_pullback_entry1.jpg


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report

Good evening. Patrick here.

The S&P bounced off minor support this morning at 1274, spending the remainder of the session bouncing around in a narrow range and closing slightly lower on the day (S&P-0.13%). Fairly predictable behavior given the large decline yesterday – Bulls and Bears battling it out in several different skirmishes, the outcome still to be decided, both sides having legitimate chances to win the war.

Sectors under pressure today included cloud computing (FFIV-21.34%, CRM-6.42%, VMW-3.82%), crude oil (USO-2.52%), precious metals (SLV-4.42%: GLD-1.82%), and fertilizer stocks (MON-2.14%,POT-2.98%, AGU-3.85%, MOS-4.57%).

The Russell 2000 (IWM-1.03%) recently has badly lagged the S&P a conspicuous change in behavior; the small cap index had led the advance rising 36.7% off the July low versus 24.6% for the S&P, but that out-performance has ceased, at least temporarily, signaling traders are leery of adding more risk to their portfolios.

Both the Russell and the Transports (TRAN-0.95%) have broken beneath uptrend lines off the summer lows, further reason to be skeptical the markets are ready for take off after only two days of weakness.

Bulls need to defend S&P 1260 while the Bears are in trouble over 1300. Risk management is the priority of the day – even trading a back-tested system with positive expectancy can result in losses if you don’t know when to hold them, and you don’t know where to fold them.

Have a great evening.


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  1. ... [#78065]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑
  2. ... [#78066]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Earl, Thank you for your contribution. I'd like to see an... [#78068]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      Earl,

      Thank you for your contribution. I’d like to see an ongoing “top picks” list and discussion here.

      By now many of you know the biases of other contributors and will be able to appropriately size up the discussion points in line with your own thinking and risk tolerance.

      I like it a lot.

    • Nice work Earl... [#78070]
      By: TraderGirl (16 comments) Go to top ↑

      Nice work Earl. Thanks.

    • I submit TTM for 2011 top 10's. It is one of Cara 100... [#78105]
      By: mSquare (95 comments) Go to top ↑

      I submit TTM for 2011 top 10′s. It is one of Cara 100 stocks already.

      TTM should prosper even if the World growth slows, just less so. In comparison the other big auto makers such as GM / F that have run-up a lot recently or even ones such as TM which has recovered from the lows of 2010 will not do as well

      http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TTM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

  3. What did the post close report yesterday say regarding... [#78067]
    By: Scott (328 comments) Go to top ↑

    What did the post close report yesterday say regarding FCX…

    Reported per Briefing.com: 3.25 vs 3.01

    Currently trading ~112.90

    • Scott, The problem with setting stops -- mine was 115 on... [#78073]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      Scott,

      The problem with setting stops — mine was 115 on FCX — is that prices suddenly drop out of ranges simply because of simultaneous profit-taking. The results at Freeport McMoRan were exceptional. After the price sinks here, there will be buyers as even the company’s outlook for 2011 is very positive.

      Comtex: Copper and Gold mining company Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) reported Q4 EPS of $3.25, topping analyst estimates of $2.88. Revenue in the quarter rose to $5.60 billion, better than the Street estimate of $5.47 billion… The company expected consolidated sales from mines for 2011 to be 3.85 billion pounds of copper, 1.4 million ounces of gold and 70 million pounds of molybdenum. Q1 2011 is expected to deliver 840 million pounds of copper, 325 thousands ounces of gold and 17 million pounds of molybdenum… Freeport currently expects 2011 capex to total $2.5 billion… The company’s board of directors declared a $1 per share supplemental dividend (paid on 12/30/10) and a 2 for 1 stock split (effected 2/1/11)… Chairman Jim Moffett and President and CEO Richard Adkerson said, “We are pleased to report record quarterly and annual financial results and substantial reserve additions. We look forward to continued strong operating results across our global operations and to the advancement of our attractive development projects as we grow our production and enhance our asset values. Our strong financial position and positive outlook will enable us to invest in economically attractive growth projects while providing strong cash returns to shareholders.”

      • $111 looks fragile... Thanks Bill for the insight... I... [#78077]
        By: Scott (328 comments) Go to top ↑

        $111 looks fragile…

        Thanks Bill for the insight…

        I referred to Patrick’s comments due to (in my opinion) his inference of a “tired” market (my words not his) after IBM, AAPL, and FCX cannot move higher on positive news/earnings

        • Scott, Agreed. The market is tired, but it is also waiting... [#78078]
          By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

          Scott,

          Agreed. The market is tired, but it is also waiting for (i) a resolution to the Euro vz Dollar trade, and (ii) more earnings and Q1 guidance.

          I am not shocked by what is happening today as it is all across the market spectrum. However, we are looking to buy into low prices and we are 82.3% cash in the main accounts, 41.2% cash in the Emerging Market small-cap and 42.2% cash in the Developed Market small-cap accounts. For the gold accounts, I have a fully weighted position because I believe that precious metals could soar at any time and that most banks and Wall Street analysts continue to forecast the 2011 gold price at $1600 to $1700 or more. I am concerned that international politics is getting involved too much in the gold market and with the ETF’s and large cap miners, so I am presently placing more emphasis on the juniors. For example, watch PMI Gold (PMV.V) today. I have almost a 1/8th weighting in this stock, and my in-depth research underlies my belief that prices will grow significantly over the next year or two there.

          I believe the same for FCX, but you have to appreciate this is a stock that major hedge funds will buy and sell in a heartbeat.

          Btw, my template smallcap accounts since Dec 2 are up a combined +0.93% — not great because I have been burdened by the BRIC market pull-back, but significantly better than the S&P 500, which is up +0.49% over that period. My extra cash is the ammunition I will apply at the point I think the sell-off has bottomed out. I am encouraged by business conditions for many of these small companies, and their corporate fundamentals are outstanding.

  4. Good morning. 1.5 - 2.5 Billion Dollar POMO Injection... [#78069]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    1.5 – 2.5 Billion Dollar POMO Injection Today.

    ——

    8:30 – Initial/Continuing Claims
    10:00 – Existing Home Sales
    10:00 – Leading Indicators
    10:00 – Philly Fed
    11:00 – Crude Inventories

    ——

    Cara 100 Earnings:

    FCX – (3.25 vs 3.01)

    After the close: GOOG

    ——

    AET – Aetna initiated with a Neutral at Citadel. Target $37

    LLTC – PT Lifted from $26 to $28 @ Auriga USA. Sell

    LLTC – Linear Technology upgraded to Neutral from Reduce at Nomura citing reset expectations. Price target is $35

    ——

    “There is a tragic flaw in our precious Constitution, and I don’t know what can be done to fix it. This is it: Only nut cases want to be president.
    ~ Kurt Vonnegut

  5. http://www.moneyville.ca/article/924482--4-economi... It... [#78071]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.moneyville.ca/article/924482–4-economi

    It appears that RBC’s Craig Wright and BMO’s Sherry Cooper are more optimistic in their outlook for 2011 that are CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld and TD Bank’s Craig Alexander.

    But even Shenfeld, who predicts a rocky road for commodity prices and gold this year is also a believer that the price of gold will hit $1600/oz in 2011.

  6. yeh right SLV ain't looking hot premarket. The question of... [#78072]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    yeh right SLV ain’t looking hot premarket. The question of whether a lower low would set in is likely to be answered this morning.

    • I wonder how long I will manage to sit on my hands before I... [#78075]
      By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

      I wonder how long I will manage to sit on my hands before I finally start buying. Next support level is still down a bit.

      • rapid loss of 28 in silver just now - $ busting 79. bear... [#78076]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        rapid loss of 28 in silver just now – $ busting 79. bear trap or the real deal? I’ll go with Twiggs’ analysis until I see otherwise – target 25

        edit: am reminded of Bill’s comments that Central Banks might be preparing for something, so am wary of shorting gung-ho. The primary trend for pm’s remains up.

  7. Down -21 and NY isn't even open yet. Looks like the 50 DMA... [#78074]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

    Down -21 and NY isn’t even open yet. Looks like the 50 DMA was resistance, and 1352 support didn’t exactly work out. And Silver is through its 50 dma, and through 28 support as well.

    Looks like the shorts have the upper hand right now.

  8. China battling inflation...shanghai down 3%, Europe taking... [#78079]
    By: wxman1229 (45 comments) Go to top ↑

    China battling inflation…shanghai down 3%, Europe taking a hit, Japan down, getting a little nervous here. US Unemployment claims way down -37,000, our labor market/economy maybe improving, but futures pointing down…again? As Patrick says… when good news doesnt boost stocks, take note! Time to take profits and a breather?

  9. JNPR - PT Lifted from $35 to $38 @ RBC. Outperform LLTC ... [#78080]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    JNPR – PT Lifted from $35 to $38 @ RBC. Outperform

    LLTC – PT Lifted from $36 to $38 @ Stifel Nicolaus. Buy

    PG – Wells Fargo Initiates with an Outperform.

  10. Anyone call a low for GG.I say 37.80 Any... [#78083]
    By: Rafish (8 comments) Go to top ↑

    Anyone call a low for GG.I say 37.80 Any Takers?

  11. Both green in the sea of red this... [#78084]
    By: Scott (328 comments) Go to top ↑

    Both green in the sea of red this morning

  12. ... [#78082]
    By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑
  13. My 'emotional response' here is to panic. Probably means... [#78085]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    My ‘emotional response’ here is to panic. Probably means buy. Sitting on hands for now.

    • Maybe wait until after amateur hour is over before doing... [#78087]
      By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

      Maybe wait until after amateur hour is over before doing the panic? Sometimes I think these gold selloffs immediately prior to NY market open have more to do with big boys picking up miners cheap than anything else. I’m seeing miners doing better than metal (in terms of chart movement post market open) on several charts. SLW vs silver, and ABX vs gold. Some miners are tracking the metal down, though.

      Occasionally it feels like they wave a red flag in front of the bull via an architected selloff prior to the open. “Sell those miners now! Gold and silver are plummeting! Ignore the fact the miners are at RSI < 30…”

      Perhaps they’ve shorted miners a week ago, and they want some sell-side volume to cover.

      Both GDX and GDXJ seem to be at nice support levels.

  14. IMF: Economic pressure in Europe rising; Flexible resources... [#78089]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    IMF: Economic pressure in Europe rising; Flexible resources needed for bailout fund
    - Growth is too slow to create jobs
    - Greece restructuring not in the country’s best interest
    - Supports longer repayment period for IMF Greece loan

  15. Any thoughts on yesterdays comments? Rising bond yields... [#78090]
    By: jimddavis (98 comments) Go to top ↑

    Any thoughts on yesterdays comments? Rising bond yields today is very negative for the bulls in my opinion.

    • Your post yesterday was very timely indeed. So much for all... [#78093]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      Your post yesterday was very timely indeed. So much for all those naysayers who responded. Yes, the trend was/is up but the rubber band of uberbullish sentiments was stretching to the braking point too. Fortunately, I chose my shorts wisely as evidenced by EEM that traded below the 1/3/11 entry point since.

      Now, the big question is when to sell the puts as my target is very close, yet this could be a beginning of a major sell off.

      • So much for all those naysayers who responded. Jack, I... [#78095]
        By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

        So much for all those naysayers who responded.

        Jack,

        I find it hard to believe that, after “naysayers” being correct time and again for about 2 years of this rally already, you see fit to gloat about being right for one day so far. Not only that, but you distort what “naysayers” said which was: do not rush to call it “major trend break” until it’s proven, and don’t put too much faith in predictions – there are always all kinds of those around.

        A few points to consider:

        - those who call for trend continuation admit freely that they WILL be wrong once when trend turns, in exchange for being correct many times when trend resumes – why throw it in their faces when that one time comes?
        - If tomorrow rally resumes, are you willing to take from “naysayers” what you dish out today?
        And finally:
        - Will you folks stop making this personal? This is exchange of information and opinions, not a contest of predictions.

        I strongly suggest to take back those “so much for naysayers” comments.

      • Jack, I didn't see big volume in the sell off in SPX... [#78100]
        By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

        Jack, I didn’t see big volume in the sell off in SPX yesterday, and today SPX seems to be rebounding nicely. I’m putting my money on a two day wonder. However, while the “rebound” happens, I’m looking for a failure to move back above 1295. I’m betting I’m not the only person doing this. If that happens, if it can’t move back above 1295, that’s when I’m going to try my hand at going short – with a stop above 1295 to get me out in case I’m wrong.

        To me I’m not a nay-sayer or a yea-sayer, I’m just thinking I’d like to see the market actually put in some topping action before I jump in the pool short.

        Another way of saying this is, I’m not aiming to short the top tick. I’m happy enough shorting the next highest peak.

        • Agree, This is why I sold puts today and I plan to reopen... [#78102]
          By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

          Agree, This is why I sold puts today and I plan to reopen puts when opportunity lends itself.

          Mind you that I’m not shorting US stocks or trying to find a peak, I’m shorting securities that are making lower highs and lower lows already such as EEM, USO or JJC (I consider them leading). Not every trade worked and some that didn’t work were stopped out promptly.

          • Jack - the 3 you mentioned sure did show signs, I have to... [#78110]
            By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

            Jack – the 3 you mentioned sure did show signs, I have to agree. I don’t follow them though! I mostly watch homebuilders, financials, the overall market, and the GDX.

  16. I'm not at all wanting to minimize a correction - we may... [#78091]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    I’m not at all wanting to minimize a correction – we may have one in the makings but I’m with you Ron, sitting on my hands.

  17. Were can I find Bill's India and China analysis? I thought... [#78092]
    By: rlogan1301 (164 comments) Go to top ↑

    Were can I find Bill’s India and China analysis? I thought it was on the right hand side of the home page, but I only see Jr. Gold Miners.

    Thanks

  18. ALOHA!! GIGANTIC AND HUGE US DOLLAR DROP IMMINENT ANY... [#78094]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!
    GIGANTIC AND HUGE US DOLLAR DROP IMMINENT ANY SECOND NOW … TICK,TICK,TICK!!!!!

    Hey, HEY … look at me I can be just as scary as “BOMM”(Bought Off Mass Media)! HA!! So many salesmen proliferate every market angle these days. I even saw a stupid movie the other day(something about A-OKAY with Anniston and the motorcycle dude from Brockevich) where Martin Sheen’s character is sitting on the sofa with his wife watching CNBC with glazed eyes! I would not be surprised to hear that 90% of the salesmen on CNBC started their working life as either used car salesmen or had a Fuller Brush route. Can you imagine that there was a time in America when people walked door-to-door selling hair brushes and combs? I recall the HELM’S BAKERY man when we lived in Southern California and of course the GOOD HUMOR ice cream truck, which was a neighborhood favorite. We all went running out of our houses with our nickels and dimes in our hands when we heard that music blaring outside!

    My point is that I think its about time WALL STREET got into a truck and drove around the neighborhood playing music and selling their debt currencies, debt bonds and debt stocks(notice the common denominator) all in various flavors, some scented, some with sticks and some with handy-dandy carrying bags; but all just melting away on a hot, sweltering day! That is the image that comes to mind on a day like today with the sales pitches flying every second in every direction imaginable!

    The first headline I saw this morning was all about how BRAZIL was running the gold price down, but then I looked at the USD and it was barely up maybe 22 … but everything was down in commodities except natural gas.

    I am an old hand at seeing the price of gold crash on a dime with no respectable explanation offered. You have not been fully initiated until you see $50+ down days same with $2+ down silver. It is always the monetary metals that gets pummeled the most when there is some looming anti-USD event. If you need “reasons” then usually what I have found is the main reason is not really known until much later. The reasons given on that day are not the real reasons, so do not waste much time and heartbeats on seeking a “real reason” today! Save your frantic heartbeats for a more worthy event …

    I have opined that the major anti-USD event coming soon will be the DEBT CEILING event. It is coming soon as another $44BIL got added to the US PUBLIC DEBT on Tuesday, Jan 18th, so the US DEBT sits right smack dab on $14TRIL USD with only measly $249BIL USD to go and it’s just now Thursday! I see no end in sight to US Treasury spending and debting, which despite home sales or jobs, is rising faster than FY2010 on an annualized basis. All the headlines in the World continually miss that fact, but instead they(the BOMM salesmen) want you to focus on BRAZIL or JOBLESS CLAIMS or any other myriad of unwashed excuses why the US DEBT should not be in the global monetary spotlight every minute of the day! We here in America still have 43 million+ citizens who cannot afford to feed themselves yet “food inflation” in China is what we Americans are spoon fed by CNBC and the rest of the “BOMM” … That’s 43 million Americans folks! 43 MILLION!!! That is the entire population of Switzerland and Australia combined plus Denmark throw in! Put that picture in your head for a second. Imagine getting off a plane in Geneva and everyone you saw was begging for food. Then imagine you get back on your plane and fly to Australia and every Aussie has his or her hand out including the babies and children. Think about that as you read all about inflation and China and Brazil tightening and jobless claims and Steve Jobs … Imagine what would happen to America if the US Treasury could not hand out food stamps(EBT) or Section 8 or Social Security or Medicare? Imagine an America where the US Treasury could not bail out GM or JPM or FNM again! IT truly IS THE DEBT STUPID!

    I look at days like this as buying opportunities, but for me the monetary metals will have to pull back much more from here to get me to have a gink(look) at my cash account! Why? When you start buying at $280 AU and $4 AG then go “all in” at $400AU and $9AG you are not so readily enticed to buy at $1300AU and $25AG. I start looking more towards serious “risk and reward” which can only be had at undervalued juniors. Like I tried to explain yesterday, even with today’s pull back(of sorts)my juniors are still up 100%-200% higher than AAPL for the year. With AAPL at $340 I would need to see a AAPL price of $700 just to match my junior performances for the year. I just do not see that happening anywhere except these junior resource stocks, this invisible sector, that has consistently escaped the gaze of the CNBC and MAD MONEY crowd for years on end. Fine by me. We trade prices don’t we!

  19. I don't want to get overwrought over a market (SP500) that... [#78098]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    I don’t want to get overwrought over a market (SP500) that hasn’t (yet) broken its 20 period average. Yet, the James Grant argument about bonds being time bombs seems to be coming to fruition.

    At the end of the day, you have to choose your poison, and that includes ‘some’ currency, yet with competitive devaluation everybody wants to be the ‘weak one’. Which brings us back to ‘stuff’?

    I half-joked the other day that I should stock up on canned tuna and bottled water, and we know the consequences of food inflation (e.g. Tunisia, food riots in Mexico in the past).

    Bill’s argument (I think) says that you have to try to preserve your purchasing power somewhere, and finding that place is our task. I think Mike Berry does a good job of helping us.

    1) Water stocks (really hard to invest in)…I’ve given up
    2) Lithium (Canadian ‘discovery’ stocks)
    3) Miscellaneous alternative energy (presuming high oil prices make them competitive
    4) Junior miners (one of Bill’s areas of expertise)
    5) Copper (also the mining space)
    6) Small cap pick-and-shovel plays (do these exist, can they compete?)
    7) Rare earths (have to come back to earth first)

    Bresciani-Turroni who wrote “The Economics of Inflation” (Weimar) chronicles the problem, and people turning to owning something (stuff) instead of worthless marks, until the Rentenmark came along.

    So, even with inflation starting to show up, theoretically unfavorable to stocks, we have to wait and see what happens. Intraday, the VIX seems to be as good as anything…

    • Thanks Ron, At lunch Monday with Rob McEwen, somebody... [#78109]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      Thanks Ron,

      At lunch Monday with Rob McEwen, somebody asked if if he was looking at maybe acquiring some rare earths, and his tongue in cheek reply was, “Don’t know because they are so rare I can’t seem to find them.”

      But I do have the feeling, because he will be going to China after PDAC in March, and he did say he would seek acquisitions anywhere if the price was right, that he might consider an acquisition in China. Just a guess. But I know that he employs the most advanced scientific instrumentation in his search for precious metal resources, which might not be used there yet.

  20. In the commentary at the top of the... [#78101]
    By: Jack Senett (438 comments) Go to top ↑

    In the commentary at the top of the page.

  21. Mastercard Strength in V and MA attributed to Rep Frank... [#78103]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Mastercard Strength in V and MA attributed to Rep Frank comments, noting support for changes in interchange fee proposals in the Dodd-Frank bill

    - Reminder: on 12/16 Federal Reserve Board of Governors votes unanimously to issue the staff proposal on capping interchange fees; public comment period will last for 60 days

  22. The BCON yahoo mb has been taken over by a organized pact... [#78097]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    The BCON yahoo mb has been taken over by a organized pact of disinformation writers. http://tinyurl.com/6f6vg8e

    I’ve copied this info from the yahoo mb – I’m just curious if you have an opinion to the potential accuracy of the statements and clues within?
    http://tinyurl.com/4rb2d25

    (The move up in the stock started in earnest on January 11th, and in looking at any news, there was absolutely nothing that was interesting enough to cause multiple high volume days which we haven’t seen the likes of in over 5+ years! Front running, perhaps, but over a 20MW plant that at best will break even (without pfp)?!

    In my opinion , this is hedge funds either manipulating the stock price up so they can exercise and dump their huge load of converted preferred shares/warrants into multiple huge prs before a r/s occurs, or getting in on the ground floor for any other number of reasons (potential major partnering/buyout offer down the road).

    If it is strictly a ‘pump and dump’ by the hedge funds, then the only group of people they will be dumping the shares onto are retail investors after the run up (as most mutual funds won’t touch it being under $5/shr.). You will start to know when to get out of BCON when you see extremely crazy volume and multiple pr’s coming from numerous sources across the wires, and for multiple days in a row. If the pr machine kicks in like I hope it will (first flywheel plant ever), we should be able to go north of $1 on this ride up. Perhaps $1.25 may be a possibility. Consider an exit point soon. We have 27 days before we have to get above $1 for ten consecutive days. Look ahead and see where you would like to put your money after this play. I might suggest BIDU for a possibility (China’s version of Google).

    The current float at BCON is around 200 million shares. Add onto that, the recent preferred to common share conversions/common warrants, and other common warrants from past deals noted in the November 2010 10Q. You are now looking at a total possible float of around 336 million shares IF they run it over $1 on this current run. This includes all warrants up to the $1.02 strike price (again, from the November 10Q, only included 4 million of the 6,414,473 as some will not exercise at that high of a price if the share price doesn’t go over it by a wide enough margin).

    What does this mean in terms of cash for the company for the exercising of all these warrants…lets see:

    $13.4 million for the 15,000 preferred shares, $11.25 million for the common warrants attached to the 10,000 preferred, $13.335 for the ‘series w’ warrants with a $.70 strike price, $6.66 million for the warrants with a $.74 strike price, and lastly $4.08 million for the warrants with a $1.02 strike price= grand total of almost $49 million!

    This would be enough to put $19 million towards the 2nd plant and pay it off in full. Another $22 million could be used to pay for day to day operational expenses for ALL OF 2011. BCON would still have $8 million left over to help with their ‘flying ring’ flywheel project or towards other expenses.

    *********AND THAT IS HOW THE COMPANY WORKS WITH HEDGE FUNDS TO BENEFIT ITSELF AT A LATER DATE!!!!!********

    I agree that it is dilution, but it won’t matter after a 1 for 10 reverse split is completed. They can start the process all over again. Meanwhile, be smart. Play the ride up and get out before all of those shares are dumped onto the market and the share price collapses. Then, either short it back down or jump into another stock to wait for BCON to fall back down to more reasonable values and do it all over again.)

  23. I guess pretty much anything is open to interpretation... I... [#78106]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    I guess pretty much anything is open to interpretation… I would think a split is on the table, as I voiced yesterday. as for the warrants, etc., who knows when someone would exercise.. ( Toby’s FTK example ).. personally, I never hold thru a reverse, as the usual follow-thru is down. Seems the first resistance is .34, and then .40. It Never hurts to take profits, and I am guessing you have a margin account, so could always buy right back, if need be. I call them ‘ 30 percenter’s ‘ meaning a good part of the crowd from .25 ish probably has sold around .325.. It all comes down to risk tolerance, but in this instance, you would have time, During regular hours, to book profits. I do agree with the PR’s.. gotta watch out for a barrage.

  24. Kinross has gone into positive territory and a number of... [#78107]
    By: Dave M (437 comments) Go to top ↑

    Kinross has gone into positive territory and a number of majors and minors are showing large white candlesticks or Kangaroo tails so it appears some are buying into the dip.

  25. Since we have a few commodity interested... [#78108]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

    Since we have a few commodity interested investors/speculators here I wonder if any of you have heard of the Lundin family (Lukas, Ian and their father Adolf -RIP-). I had great success investing in some of their plays a few years ago, but kept out the last three years. They have created some new companies over that time with some very interesting assets. There are about 10 Lundin companies at this time, there used to be more(!).

    The Lundins are well known (at least amongst the people who know them) for not screwing shareholders and have had multiple >1000% share developments over the decades. If you ever invest in a commodity play in countries like Congo, Kurdistan, Syria, Sudan – it better be in a Lundin company since they know how to do business in those regions. They also play boring countries like Norway, Canada, France, etc. Their track record is excellent.

    http://www.thelundingroup.com/s/Home.asp

  26. might be dead wrong, but someone seems to be getting very... [#78111]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    might be dead wrong, but someone seems to be getting very interested in ‘ tlr ‘ just now… their drilling results strong, especially at ‘ Lookout ‘ site.. I’m in .

  27. Anyone buying RBY? Last week was very different... EDIT: I... [#78114]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

    Anyone buying RBY? Last week was very different…

    EDIT: I am thinking of getting some, but this this is acting a little crazy lately. Support was even broken today.

    • ballena, I sold my last position in RBY at $5.96 back on... [#78116]
      By: ToddinFL (159 comments) Go to top ↑

      ballena,

      I sold my last position in RBY at $5.96 back on January 13th just after lunch time. It actually ran up over $6 after I sold it and I thought maybe I had pulled the trigger too soon, but then it reversed and finished lower on the day.

      Previously [back in May-June of 2010] the stock pulled back to just under its previous breakout point back on September 1, 2009 @ $3.21. But that was part of a much broader correction in gold.

      So I’m watching the November 25-26 of 2010 break out levels [$4.35- $4.45] for support to kick in. I’m not saying it will necessary get to those levels, but that would be a logical place for buyers to re-emerge.

      Another level a bit higher that could hold is near $4.80, which was hit 3 separate times [Oct. '09, Feb. '10, and March '10].

  28. Hi everyone, An interesting article written on Inflation... [#78115]
    By: daily360 (6 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi everyone,

    An interesting article written on Inflation by professor McKinnon from Stanford Universityand, telling us what to look for.

    http://tinyurl.com/4a8c7wn

    (do a google search for the heading of the article to read the full text)

    Apologize if posted earlier.

    Best Wishes

  29. In the commentary at the top of the... [#78117]
    By: Jack Senett (438 comments) Go to top ↑

    In the commentary at the top of the page.

  30. http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/... Is... [#78118]
    By: joe_the_plumber (147 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/

    Is this why the UXG / SLV / GLD / SLW have taken a 5% or larger hit?

  31. Risk mgmt. is no. 1 as Patrick stated. No. 2 is you've got... [#78119]
    By: jimddavis (98 comments) Go to top ↑

    Risk mgmt. is no. 1 as Patrick stated.
    No. 2 is you’ve got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them, and that is the hard one. As Kenny Rogers sings, “There will be time to count the money, when the dealing is done, ha.

    • jim- 'Risk management' or 'Capital preservation.' Call it... [#78124]
      By: 2nd_ave (5605 comments) Go to top ↑

      jim- ‘Risk management’ or ‘Capital preservation.’ Call it what you want- I like the sound of not losing money.

  32. Hi All - A bit of a stretch to use these symbols together... [#78120]
    By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi All – A bit of a stretch to use these symbols together, but with a fully funded development of Pebble for open pit and underground the mining & processing on an annual basis would likely rival numbers expected for Grasberg. Happy Trading
    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-20/freepo

  33. Those lawmakers who advocate "Ending the Fed" might better... [#78122]
    By: Milesquare (281 comments) Go to top ↑

    Those lawmakers who advocate “Ending the Fed” might better turn their considerable talents toward ending the fiscal debacle that has for too long run amuck within their own house. The Fed does not create government debt; fiscal authorities do. ~ Richard Fisher (Jan. 12, 2011)

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north932.html

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/01/12/dick-fis

    • ... [#78128]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑
      • I like the part where Fisher talks about the cheap, quiet... [#78129]
        By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

        I like the part where Fisher talks about the cheap, quiet, tiny and modest hotel room in Manhattan at the clubhouse. So humble? Guess he feels insulated from the riff raff at the Ritz Carlton on Central Park. Urban cowboy?

        Can only hope Ron Paul calls Fisher out for pointing the finger at Congress. Enabler extraordinaire. Pot calling the kettle black and all that. Sheesh. What an ass.

        Fishers words do tell us one thing: That these Fed governors are already looking for ways to deflect blame in a feeble attempt to protect their hides from WE THE PEOPLE.

        • What I really resent is these guys always pointing the... [#78131]
          By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

          What I really resent is these guys always pointing the finger at Social Security and Medicare, which are future demographic problems to be sure. Never a mention, however, about the big elephant kicking around in the tent for many years already…..Defense Spending. Also, agriculture subsidies, highway funds, and the earmarks which have gone on for decades.

      • A Pox on ALL their houses. These senseless idiots, the... [#78132]
        By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

        A Pox on ALL their houses. These senseless idiots, the appologists of the private (read FED) banking system and the annointed duopoly with a backroom handshake (read congress), will use ANY trick to bait the discussion away from themselves. Aided by a symphonic drone from the media, ‘They’ would have you believe that you have but two choices. “None of the above” as a third option scares them almost to panic!

        Control has become an artform that has been honed and delivered by Madison Avenue for the price of a Monte Carlo Harlet. They ain’t cheap but they always deliver and whisper ‘I Love You,’ and “when will I see you again”

        I’d pay good money to see a steel caged ‘fight to the death’ between congress critters and banksters. You simply shoot the winner and the problem is solved!

        Competitive devaluations are a prelude to exchange controls. Jap 10 year JGB’s yield 1.23%. The 10 year in Brasil yields over 12%. Where would a widow park her money? Would she want the demographics of Japan or the dynamic population and commodity resources of Brasil?

        Fisher lives in a singular delusion of ‘banking’ and will never admit that banks have become casinos using leverage to win with an iron backstop of a government that pledges a future sum that they know that they can never pay.

        Paul is the ‘againer.’ He is the foil that makes folly against or rather for a decision of ‘either or.’ He is a sane rebuker of the idiocy of our times but his solutions lack political reality, mores the pity.

        Reality is where we live today. The debt markets are the masters and from what I see they are as screwed up as a chocolate shrimp fondue with halapenos.

        My only recourse is to ‘fade’ the debt markets with long term shorts against zeros. Jap debt is a sweet pink sugar cream dream selling for a modest 5 cents on the dollar. And everyone knows that they are money good? NOPE!!!

        Just my take

      • ... [#78137]
        By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  34. Hi All - Don't you wish the regime posted some of these... [#78123]
    By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi All – Don’t you wish the regime posted some of these nuances for the great unwashed. Ballena – Thanks for the Lundin post – guess I knew they were part & parcel with Lundin Mining, but was not aware of the Denison control position. Both in the litter – been a tough couple days but.. Happy Trading

  35. are you still with ' svnt ' ? been watching and watching... [#78125]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    are you still with ‘ svnt ‘ ? been watching and watching and… started anew this afternoon… some are playing up the big call’s, but I see it more as a value play here. Still think it would be a wonderful fit for some big pharma’s. The first qt. contracs could well suprise to the upside, and perhaps a potential partner has a good insight already. hope all is well…

  36. ... [#78127]
    By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑
    • ALOHA!! Antimony(Sb)... LINK:... [#78130]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      Antimony(Sb)…
      LINK: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimony

      Here is my “antimony play”!

      STRAITS RESOURCES(SRL:ASX), based in Perth, Western Australia. I visited their offices in Jan 2008 and we discussed their Hillgrove Mine, which produces antimony and gold and tungsten, and they had constructed a demonstration process plant to resolve issues, but the waste water and flotation interface were made uneconomical to continue mining so they shut down in August 2009. They are now back online and will commence production last I heard. However in the meantime they are in the middle of demerging and in acquisition stages that will pay each shareholder $1.72AUD per share and leave the “metal mining operations” under a newly formed company, so it looks good going forward. The question becomes is the new SRL metal company(MetalCo) worth $0.60AUD per share. From my perspective it is, but I have a caveat, as I purchased my shares at $0.65AUD back in early 2009 when the global credit crunch hit all the miners. I was also buying Silver Lakes Res(SLR:ASX)another Aussie gold producer I met up with back in Jan 2008, at $0.17AUD the same time.

      Here is a link to their Hillgrove Antimony mine located in New South Wales,Australia, where the new “metal company” has other gold projects as well.
      LINK: http://www.straits.com.au/operations/hillgrove.html

      I have to say this company has been a laggard on share price over the past couple years but I stayed with them because the management clearly knew how to unlock shareholder value. Last year they paid a dividend of $0.33 per share so they essentially paid me half of what I bought in for. Now they will pay me a $1.72 cash per share this year, which means they paid me $2.05AUD for every share I purchased at $0.65AUD. In our meeting in Jan 2008 they told me point blank they intended to show some creative moves to provide shareholder value focused on their coal assets. They certainly have performed miracles over the past few years and have navigated some real global mining issues with some very adept management. It turned out these jockeys knew what they were doing! I could not be more pleased with the management! Will SRL sell their Hillgrove Mine to the Chinese? Hummmm???

  37. So GDX:GLD looks like it might have found a bottom - but we... [#78133]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑

    So GDX:GLD looks like it might have found a bottom – but we will only know after confirmation Friday. At least it shows that some buying pressure is coming back into the miners, after so many days of selling.

  38. is not so smart, when you don't have a patent or... [#78134]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    is not so smart, when you don’t have a patent or proprietary technology that might change the world.

    http://tcrn.ch/fsh9dw

    I posted a comment there but to summarize:

    Local offer company + google assets and #1internet reach = incredible
    Local offer co w/o google assets + google as primary competitor = trouble

    Now, groupon will have to deal with Google Offers, and Google leveraging assets such as Android, Search, Google Maps, AdWords, gmail, gchat, existing relationships with fortune 1000, to make google offers surpass Groupon.

    It still boggles my mind. Groupon and other local offer businesses have no invention. there are no barriers to entry other than sweat equity and ability to send out email blasts. How do you turn down Google’s $6B offer? They better go IPO tomorrow and get out while they can.

  39. Google this headline "Path Is Sought for States to Escape... [#78135]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Google this headline “Path Is Sought for States to Escape Debt Burdens” and it should point to a NYT article. http://nyti.ms/h8bVNN

    “Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.”

    Its quite odd how sometimes fictional movies can turn into versions of reality.

    In the movie The Fight Club, the antagonist of the film wants to create chaos by blowing up data centers at a central hub, resulting in everyone’s debt balance resetting to zero. http://bit.ly/weareconsumers
    This was actually the premise of Zerohedge’s alias of Tyler Durden.

    I think the best line that sums up the movie, and the situation we are in now in real life is “The things you own end up owning you”.

  40. http://bit.ly/fO4Uhv I no longer bank with the big... [#78136]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://bit.ly/fO4Uhv

    I no longer bank with the big nationals, as of last yr.

    When will America wake up. 40% underemployment? California bankruptcy? $10 per gallon gas? NFL Lockout? Unemployment running out of money to pay out benefits? 60 students per teacher ratio in schools?

    What’s it going to take?