Bill Cara’s Blog for Jan 12, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[8:30am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

The European Central Bank held interest rates steady following cutting rates twice in a row in order to address the sovereign debt issues. The ECB sees some stabilization and the market rallied off of the news.

Stock market participants are very optimistic right now. Stock futures are higher this morning and the S&P 500 could finally break above the October high and rally up to the downtrend line. If that breakout occurs, that optimism could reach a point that is unsustainable, price oscillators will be overbought and the breakout could fail on bad news from Europe. With that said, we are long, think that most of the European debt worries are currently priced into stocks and welcome the market climbing the “wall of worry”, but caution is warranted and stops will be in place.

Let’s see how the day plays out.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 1,902.50 4:01AM EST Down 5.80 (0.30%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,153.57 6:59AM EST Up 13.25 (0.62%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,245.96 6:59AM EST Up 41.13 (1.28%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,233.09 6:44AM EST Up 80.75 (1.31%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 312.78 6:44AM EST Up 1.13 (0.36%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 454.74 6:44AM EST Up 4.16 (0.92%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 320.05 6:45AM EST Up 4.24 (1.34%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,044.06 6:45AM EST Up 36.02 (0.60%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,684.90 6:44AM EST Up 14.08 (0.25%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 901.90 7:00AM EST Up 11.30 (1.27%) Chart, More
ESI500000000.MA IGBM 856.37 6:45AM EST Up 13.12 (1.56%) Components, Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,480.16 7:45AM EST Up 9.92 (0.67%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 636.86 6:45AM EST Up 7.78 (1.24%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales 9:45... [#103462]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims
    • 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales
    • 9:45 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    • 10:00 AM ET Business Inventories
    • 10:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report
    • 1:00 PM ET 30-Yr Bond Auction
    • 2:00 PM ET Treasury Budget
    • 4:30 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet
    • 4:30 PM ET Money Supply
  2. 1 in Distribution Zone 5 in Sell alert Accumulation... [#103463]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 1 in Distribution Zone
    • 5 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 8, Weekly 1, Daily 4
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 9, Weekly 7, Daily 31

  3. BHP Billiton is heading towards the Oct 28 high of 2131p... [#103464]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    BHP Billiton is heading towards the Oct 28 high of 2131p which is right around the 200-day MA.

    Copper is also pretty close to breaking out of its three month range. Technically it is overbought, but like the market, I am feeling optimistic today. We shall see.

  4. ECO WATCHERS SURVEY: OUTLOOK Japan for Dec Actual: 44.4... [#103466]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    ECO WATCHERS SURVEY: OUTLOOK Japan for Dec
    Actual: 44.4 Cons.: Previous: 44.7

    The Eco Watchers Survey released by the Cabinet Office closely watches region-by-region economic trends. The survey is considered as basic material for assessing short-term economic trends in Japan.

    MACHINE TOOL ORDERS (YOY) Japan for Dec – provisional
    Actual: 17.4% Cons.: Previous: 15.8% Revised from 26.0%

    ——————————

    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) Germany for Dec
    Actual: 2.1% Cons.: 2.1% Previous: 2.4%

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  5. ... [#103465]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2

    INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (YOY) UK for Nov
    Actual: -3.1% Cons.: -2.2% Previous: -2.1% Revised from -1.7%

    MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION (YOY)
    Actual: -0.6% Cons.: -0.5% Previous: 0.1% Revised from 0.3%

    UK industrial production clearly in contraction. I am gathering the impression that England is the sick man of Europe. GBPUSD weekly doesn’t do anything to impress upon me otherwise:

    http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=GBPUSD&t

    Little wonder that Cameron told Merkel where she could stick her austerity. I fear that London riots may become an annual event this decade.

  6. What goes up must come down. Look at Orange Juice over the... [#103468]
    By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

    What goes up must come down. Look at Orange Juice over the last couple of days. Colossal gains & losses. Bad weather in Florida, then the realization that most of the OJ demand in the US is supplied from Brazil, Mexico, even Costa Rica. That’s my guess anyway. Local news last night was warning folks of the fungus dangers in south american supply. Really? What’s behind that scare attempt? Wonder if that story was carried by all “local stations”.

    Natgas down another couple percent. $2 handle this summer?

    >$30 Silver. UK is easing, ECB is easing, heck, the whole world is easing. We’ve only just begun.

    • Re: Carbendazim EU countries may step up tests on Brazil... [#103472]
      By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

      Re: Carbendazim

      EU countries may step up tests on Brazil OJ
      http://reut.rs/xXAA9S

    • I live in SW Florida (Sarasota area) we have had a perfect... [#103475]
      By: Zed II (163 comments) Go to top ↑

      I live in SW Florida (Sarasota area) we have had a perfect citrus growing season. What bad weather?
      As to the fungicide danger, the same chemical is used on U.S. produced apples and approved for consumption on raw fruit- so the ban of imported orange concentrate seems contrived.

      Ciao, Z.

      • My oops moment. I've had weather on my mind too much... [#103479]
        By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

        My oops moment. I’ve had weather on my mind too much lately. Fungicide, fungicide, fungicide.

        Was someone positioned to gain from this latest scare?

  7. Down 10 per cent in... [#103471]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    Down 10 per cent in pre-market.

    http://on.wsj.com/z0dtwO

  8. The deliberate climb continues with every shadow of dollar... [#103473]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    The deliberate climb continues with every shadow of dollar weakness.

    • I dunno about deliberate db, but I did notice the potential... [#103474]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      I dunno about deliberate db, but I did notice the potential for silver to be building a new level of support at these levels here. I for one am not expecting silver to explode to the upside like early 2011 anytime soon, but if it can consolidate around these levels and then as Bill remarked many many months ago that Wall St finally revises their forecasts based on new precious metal prices, then things could be interesting for miners this year. See attached silver futures chart.

    • Not just gold. Silver, platinum, and junior miners did... [#103481]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      Not just gold. Silver, platinum, and junior miners did twice as well (~20%) as gold compared to the intermediate low at the end of 2011. Just as planned, except for the HL fiasco.

      At the same time, dollar and bonds are near their peaks. What will happen when scared retail investors start selling their bonds and dollars?

      Edit: speaking about HL, it’s starting to take off despite the naysayers yesterday.

      FD: long the assets mentioned above (except for bonds and dollar) plus EEM.

      • "If" and or "When", the dollar looses, say 5% to 7% over... [#103484]
        By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

        “If” and or “When”, the dollar looses, say 5% to 7% over the next 6months, what would that do to the price of PM’s and commodities? Up Up and Away??

        • the dollar break downs of 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 were... [#103486]
          By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

          the dollar break downs of 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 were positive for PM, but sometimes with a lag of month or two as gold is also a fear asset.

          • Jack, Hecla Dropped 1.58 yesterday and has rallied .63..I... [#103487]
            By: basketguy (90 comments) Go to top ↑

            Jack,

            Hecla Dropped 1.58 yesterday and has rallied .63..I think you might be a tad married to your HL love.

            I am not in to catching falling knives…There will be better Opportunities in the future…IMO….

          • Jack, HL runs into some trouble nearing... [#103490]
            By: basketguy (90 comments) Go to top ↑

            Jack,

            HL runs into some trouble nearing 5.00

            http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/6757/201201120956

          • basket - HL showed triple RSI accumulate yesterday. I... [#103491]
            By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

            basket -

            HL showed triple RSI accumulate yesterday. I wrote some March 4 puts. I figure I get HL for 3.72 if the trade goes against me. Didn’t seem like a bad deal.

          • Hecla had one of the lowest PE and PB ratios among the... [#103493]
            By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

            Hecla had one of the lowest PE and PB ratios among the miners well before the bad news. I got stopped out completely on open with a large loss, but lessened the loss as I repurchased soon after it stopped falling.

            I agree with you that I would not start a new positions in HL right now. I merely pointed out to the people that said it will keep falling that their logic and valuations were wrong.

          • jack black - "I merely pointed out to the people that said... [#103495]
            By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

            jack black -

            “I merely pointed out to the people that said it will keep falling that their logic and valuations were wrong.”

            Looks as if HL is rising with today’s gold miners’ momentum, NOT on a valuation metrics recovery. If you have a discounted cash flow analysis dropping in the HUGE production loss, maybe you’d find those ratios would not be the lowest in the sector. You may want to reconsider the “logic and valuations were wrong” accusation regarding fundamental analysis when you appear to be gambling with a technical momentum trade.

            Who’s your daddy?

            Cheers.

            Edit: HL up 3.80% but UXG up 4.85% right now. UXG got clobbered late last year along with the sector but fundamentals remain intact while HL just lost production to a key mine until the gov’t decides it can reopen. Sell your profits of HL and run to quality.

  9. Good morning. 08:30 Initial Claims (399,000) 08:30 Retail... [#103477]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    08:30 Initial Claims (399,000)
    08:30 Retail Sales (0.1%)
    10:00 Business Inventories
    14:00 Treasury Budget

    ——

    AMZN – Amazon.com initiated with a Buy at CLSA. Target $230

    JNPR – Juniper downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus based on core router and margin concerns following its reduced Q4 guidance.

    ——

    “If God had wanted us to vote, he would have given us candidates.” – Jay Leno

  10. One of the reasons I'm thoughtful of potential trend change... [#103478]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    One of the reasons I’m thoughtful of potential trend change coming for precious metals and miners at least is that the fundamentals in Europe are changing rapidly enough… again.

    European countries will be allowed to ignore new fiscal rules in difficult economic times, according to a draft of the region’s new treaty which appears to water down plans for a tough pact.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis

    Well it’s not like they’ve let fiscal rules get in the way of bad fiscal management until now, but we’re effectively seeing the status quo permitted to continue, which is a very rapid change from Angela ‘austerity’ Merkel’s battle cry of recent months.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10Y

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR1

    Spanish and Italian debt is looking a bit better, with successful auctions made. I also note that the sick man of the continent – France, is teaming up with the life support patient – Italy and questioning Dr Merkel’s austerity prescriptions in public.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,…

    How quickly the tune changes on this market dance floor.

  11. TGT - Target initiated with a Buy at Standpoint Research... [#103480]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    TGT – Target initiated with a Buy at Standpoint Research. Target $60

  12. Hi all, I want to short this Indian Rupee ETF (ICN). It... [#103482]
    By: jragusa (121 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi all,

    I want to short this Indian Rupee ETF (ICN). It pays out short term cap gains in late December of every year. I understand that if I am shorting equities with a dividends, I would have to pay the dividend. Would the same apply to short term cap gains? Also, WHEN do I have to pay? Monthly in dribs and drabs or only when the security makes a distribution? If the latter, I can always cover my short prior to the distribution date and re short after the distribution is made, right?

    • Why not buy a put. Much... [#103503]
      By: pauldkk (92 comments) Go to top ↑

      Why not buy a put. Much easier

      • pauldkk, I would prefer puts as well; it's just that I am... [#103506]
        By: jragusa (121 comments) Go to top ↑

        pauldkk,

        I would prefer puts as well; it’s just that I am interested in long term puts and the longest puts available expire July 2012. I just opened a CD yeilding 9.5% and want to hedge the currency risk by shorting this ETF. So, with that sort of hedging in mind, I have no reason to pay put premiums; a straight short will do the job just fine. Also, the spreads on these July 2012 put are horrible; e.g. ATM puts have a bid/ask of 1.10/1.70.

  13. philadelphia fed revises december business conditions index... [#103483]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    philadelphia fed revises december business conditions index to 6.8 from 10.3.

    UM. that is a big revision. booyah

  14. At the moment, the richest Western countries, including the... [#103485]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    At the moment, the richest Western countries, including the United States, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, hold between 60% and 80% of their entire reserves in gold. The figure for China is less than 2%.

    Do we know if this is true?

    edit: we know indeed: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

    The % is all over the map, ranging from 0% to 89% (portugal).
    Surprisingly, Australia, Canada, Russia, Arab, and Asian countries have little gold.

    • Jack, those numbers are tracked by World Gold Council and... [#103492]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      Jack,

      those numbers are tracked by World Gold Council and reported regularly; they do paint very different picture from what most conspiracy theories would have one believe… Majority of gold reserves held by CBs is one of the reasons I remain suspicous of claims CBs hate gold and try to suppress its price. It just doesn’t compute.

  15. CVX - estimates reduced at Morgan Stanley through 2012... [#103488]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    CVX – estimates reduced at Morgan Stanley through 2012, Morgan Stanley said. Refining is running at breakeven, the company is seeing lower production and higher corporate expenses. Overweight rating and $137 price target.

    CVX – Chevron estimates lowered at UBS through 2012, UBS said. Weak R&M and negative Fx impact. Buy rating and $127 price target.

    CVX – Chevron target raised at Jefferies. Shares of CVX now seen reaching $125, Jefferies said. World class project portfolio. Buy rating.

    MSFT – estimates, target cut at Credit Suisse through 2014, Credit Suisse said. PC demand remains weak. Outperform rating and new $34 price target.

    SBUX – estimates, target raised at UBS. Shares of SBUX now seen reaching $52, according to UBS. Estimates also increased as single serve momentum continues. Buy rating.

  16. I was counting on money flowing from TLT to the stock... [#103489]
    By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

    I was counting on money flowing from TLT to the stock market. Although the Long Term chart showing a topping process may be occurring, the shorter term 1 year daily chart shows that the TLT price is locked in a triangular pattern still. Which way is it going to break is still anyone’s guess. I for one is erring on the side of caution. I’m guessing that it may break upward based on the technical indicators showing a possible short term bottom may be in place here. If that happens, then that will suck the money from equity back back into bonds.

    Also, the sentiment numbers are really showing a lot of complacency here, if not down right optimistic and giddy. Even the CBOE put/call ratio is getting into dangerous grounds. What dumb found me here is the sentiment on the gold miners is still showing a very low number on % bullishness. We’ll see what happens when gold gets to $1700 level, top of the recent downtrend line. May be it will break through. May be not.

    Because of the above, I have raised my cash level to about 30%. Waiting for a bit more room for Gold and Silver to run up before deciding on next course of action.

  17. we talked in the past how later part of 2011 SPX chart... [#103494]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    we talked in the past how later part of 2011 SPX chart looked like 2008. Not anymore as SPX is well above 200DMA (resistance in 2008). IMHO, the SPX chart looks just like 2010 and golden cross is near (accomplished already in QQQ and SPX:UDN).

  18. I've been waiting for at UXG... vol. is impressive today... [#103496]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    I’ve been waiting for at UXG… vol. is impressive today.. if she breaks higher from here, it could be a great story for 2012.

  19. Since the New Year the volumes of the major EFTs' that... [#103498]
    By: Foreign-Gal (17 comments) Go to top ↑

    Since the New Year the volumes of the major EFTs’ that track the S&P 500, DOW 30 & NASDAQ have been very low. For example,

    The SPY has an average daily volume of 213 million but the volume for the last 3 days has been 45%, 54% and 52% of the average.

    The DIA has an average daily volume of 8 million but the volume for the last 3 days has been 58%, 65% and 59% of the average.

    Anyone else concerned by the low volume?

  20. Accidentally posted this in yesterdays comments... After... [#103499]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    Accidentally posted this in yesterdays comments…

    After having a really nice run in US small cap funds from August through the present, I have recently taken some profits and redeployed them into global/international funds which have hugely underperformed US stocks as of late. Taking a look at the charts, small cap indices like IWM are back to their late-Oct highs while EEM for instance is considerably lower than its late-Oct highs.

    I still think there are some great opportunities in US small caps but at this stage I prefer to have exposure to select opportunities (as opposed to broad index) within small caps (large chunk in PMs purchased a couple weeks ago, some other commodity related names).

    The idea is really not that global/intl should outperform now but that it will provide a similar opportunity for gains while providing a greater margin of safety at this point than US small caps.

  21. market dropped AEM this am.. reminds me of how PAAS was... [#103500]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    market dropped AEM this am.. reminds me of how PAAS was spanked on their large mine closure a few years back.. yet, it was reopened to become a Big producer.. ain’t over till its over….. Could be a really good purchase for another top tier producer…

  22. Hi All - Here is one that has been a falling knife for some... [#103501]
    By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi All – Here is one that has been a falling knife for some time now that seems to be making a move today for the first time in 3-4 months. A good dissection of the company’s prospects in Seeking Alpha today suggest it is well undervalued. Happy Trading

  23. Remember one of their members posted here? Michael Gayed... [#103502]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Remember one of their members posted here?
    Michael Gayed, another posted this today: He is saying it appears that the sideways market is resolving to the upside.
    http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/article
    Also they are tweeting exhuberantly. (“What do you call an environment of low volatility, low correlations, and low volume? A bull no one believes.”) Financials outperforming SPY. We are told there cant’ be a healthy stock market rally without them (Coxe). Just sayin’. BRCM breaking nicely today.

  24. Bought some puts today feb 75... [#103504]
    By: pauldkk (92 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bought some puts today feb 75 @$2.00

  25. 200 moving avg is clearly under the 300 ma. It has... [#103505]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    200 moving avg is clearly under the 300 ma.

    It has recovered into a bull phase only 1 time in the past 20 yrs, 1995.

    http://bit.ly/zilgcT

    it could be something, or it could be nothing.

    • I don't want to sound like a permabull, but lets be honest... [#103511]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      I don’t want to sound like a permabull, but lets be honest and use common sense. This crossover happened only 4 times in 20 years, including now. One outcome bullish, 2 outcomes bearish and 1 outcome unknown. Would you bet just based on this? (Rhetorical question).

      • absolutely not. but it has bearishly crossed 4 times and... [#103513]
        By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

        absolutely not. but it has bearishly crossed 4 times and only gave a false signal 1 of 4.

        the infrequency of this is more relevant on a longer time frame, than some who use moving averages on a tick chart, which are useless.

        I do not make intraday trades based on this obviously. but it’s something that has served me well managing my “investment” portfolio over the last 10 yrs. Which is all in cash right now.

        I also use this same ma cross indicator on the DOW, NQ, Russell 2000 as well. it’s just as accurate. until proven otherwise. DOW is the only index that hasnt made the cross over.

        Also it has never given a failed signal on the XLF, since it began trading in 1999. Chart: http://bit.ly/zmQy7K

        Not many indicators can show a record like this.

        • How do you know the 4th time is bearish? It just crossed... [#103514]
          By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

          How do you know the 4th time is bearish? It just crossed couple of weeks ago and the stocks are rallying hard since. It may as well be another false positive giving you 50/50 predictive value.

          • i do not make day trades based on this. let's touch base on... [#103515]
            By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

            i do not make day trades based on this. let’s touch base on this at end of Feb.

            Its simply a “be defensive, or be aggressive” type indicator. If we got a bullish cross after a sustained down move, i would allocate all of my savings into long positions and hold, well i used to do this. and scale out well before but might hold onto a few of the winners until the 200/300 bearish cross.

            right now i am defensive. As are prices. Look at the leaders. All defensive names. MCD outperformed AAPL. Most of the previous leaders are being sold into on every opp.

            if i miss a move to 1300 i will be ok. if AAPL goes to 500, i will be ok.

            My intraday strategy is quite different.

            PS: about the 4th time, not quite. the only time this failed was 1995. in context that was an anomaly environment. basically the beginning of the Internet boom. Unless Alien’s are about to land and show us how to make infinite renewable clean energy…

          • Here it is on gold. http://bit.ly/wMic6m I dont use this... [#103516]
            By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

            Here it is on gold. http://bit.ly/wMic6m

            I dont use this on gold. and i def dont use as exit strategy. more of a be defensive or aggressive. as i have said. but if you were a hedge fund manager allocating large positions that can’t be scaled out of so quickly, this would have got you in on most of the move since 2002.

            You would have had some pain in 2009, but back in for the remainder of the move. and you may still be in now.

            Me personally i follow the 150 ma for my “oh crap” exit on gold. but longer term i cannot see how Gold can hurt you

          • The 200/300 crossover does not seem to have worked for... [#103517]
            By: mSquare (95 comments) Go to top ↑

            The 200/300 crossover does not seem to have worked for GOOG. In fact quite the opposite…
            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=3&mn=

          • its not something that has worked well on individual... [#103519]
            By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

            its not something that has worked well on individual equities. Goog is the perfect example. without any indicators at all, just by looking at a clean chart, it is one of the largest market cap co’s with gaps like that all over.

            it is a fairly horrid acting stock.

            If you guys do not like the 200/300 cross on warning signals of larger picture turns, please do not use and disregard. but check it on any index that has traded for 20 yrs plus.

            I am just in a sharing mood and trying to pass on something that works for me for free.

            This is to be used on broad index. I used as a signal to get aggressive (look for long stocks, then identify potential leaders, and other indications for particular equities).

            or defensive (Booking my winners, not looking for growth leaders. etc).

          • I have yet to invest in google, ever. Unless you bought pre... [#103520]
            By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

            I have yet to invest in google, ever. Unless you bought pre 2005 or end of 2008, it has been an anxiety fest investment. i am sure people trade it quite successfully.

            http://bit.ly/wBVW12

            I still recall heavily at a dinner in 2007, friend’s of friends recommended to everyone to buy google and it was going from $600 past $1000, on hopes of social media efforts that would rival facebook. some bought on the recommendation. they held all the way down below 300 and sold there.

          • NYU, I swing trade GOOG because I believe they are growing... [#103522]
            By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

            NYU, I swing trade GOOG because I believe they are growing and the general direction is up. I agree it’s frustratingly gappy, but so is the whole damn market. Who knew from April on last year what the morning would bring. Markets gapping overnight giving it back all day long etc.

  26. *(US) NOV MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$85.9B V -$83.7BE... [#103507]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    *(US) NOV MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT: -$85.9B V -$83.7BE (39TH STRAIGHT MONTH OF DEFICITS)
    - Receipts: $239.9B v $236B y/y
    - Outlays: $325.9B v 315$B y/y

  27. such a beautiful trending move is so rare in market now... [#103509]
    By: SmallCapFan (34 comments) Go to top ↑

    such a beautiful trending move is so rare in market now. Hope someone here catch the move. no wonder many great traders prefer to trade commodities rather than equities. Stocks have less trending time.

  28. Watching JPM and XLF. most financials are sitting on 200... [#103510]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Watching JPM and XLF. most financials are sitting on 200 day ma. with JPM reporting tomorrow before the open, i am guessing whichever way JPM goes into the close, so goes the broad indices.

  29. I removed the link. Not sure if its coincidence but the... [#103518]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    I removed the link. Not sure if its coincidence but the link isn’t free anymore. weird.

    news is entertainment anyway. :)

    EDIT: Ah, its still free if you go to zerohedge and then click on the banner on right that says “Live Audio Commentary From RanSquawk:”

    So not sure how long this will be free.

  30. http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Muddy+W... Due... [#103521]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.streetinsider.com/Insiders+Blog/Muddy+W
    Due up on |BNN in the morning.

  31. Whilst enjoying the recent momentum of PMI Gold, can anyone... [#103523]
    By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

    Whilst enjoying the recent momentum of PMI Gold, can anyone tell me the difference between the 2 names above. I did try and research. How and why is there a subtle price difference between the two.

    Have been holding onto GG for a while, thinking of it as a LONG. I note that in the last 2 weeks there has been some welcome positive movement in the price but is this a good long to own or will I ultimately suffer the fate of holding on too long and neither gaining on the spikes and suffering the dips only to break out even after a year?. What is happening with GG?

    • Ventilation Blues , PMV is a Canadian equity , priced in... [#103524]
      By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

      Ventilation Blues , PMV is a Canadian equity , priced in Canadian currency . PMVGF is an American equity priced in U.S. dollars . Two equities but the same company .

  32. Singapore Small Cap Index fund opens tomorrow. EWSS. The... [#103525]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    Singapore Small Cap Index fund opens tomorrow. EWSS. The existing EWS is the large cap Singapore index fund also from iShares.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/iShares-Launches-3-D

    I personally don’t trust ETFs anymore than a mutual fund. Even stocks without direct registration could be at risk of confiscation. MF Global and all that has spooked me.

    Cheers.

  33. Pre-Feasibility Study Shows After-Tax NPV of US$416m and... [#103526]
    By: ChrisM (279 comments) Go to top ↑

    Pre-Feasibility Study Shows After-Tax NPV of US$416m and IRR of 31% (At $1,300/oz gold price)

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/PMI-Set-Q3-2012-Deve

    Sounds promising, but as my grandmother used to say, “There’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip”

    FD long PMVGF

    • I think that will be the official 2012 Trading moto from... [#103527]
      By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

      I think that will be the official 2012 Trading moto from your Grandmother ChrisM, brilliant!

  34. For history buffs of the European Central... [#103528]
    By: loannetter (1298 comments) Go to top ↑

    For history buffs of the European Central Bank:

    http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/ecbhistoryrolefun

  35. For those of you who search for definitive forecasters, A... [#103529]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    For those of you who search for definitive forecasters, A Dash of Insight conducted a search for you. He reveals the results of his search for the ultimate recession forecaster…not to be confused with a stock, bond, or interest rate forecaster.

    http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2012/

  36. PM not looking great today. It took a move down by the buck... [#103530]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

    PM not looking great today. It took a move down by the buck to get PM to stagger back to the lower end of yesterday’s trading levels. Perhaps this is just the start to risk-off-Friday – in case the eurozone goes down This Weekend.

    The buck is looking mildly weaker. Next support level is 80; if it goes through that (and the 50 ma at 79.66) we might have a trend change on our hands.

    Anyone up for buying natgas at 2.67? Anyone?

  37. The little engine that thought it could was on my mind... [#103531]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    The little engine that thought it could was on my mind watching this market yesterday. Yesterday I pointed out a little signal – an ascending triangle – that appears in my 10 min stochastics indicator when an inflection point is reached, in this case for the Q’s. And it works like a charm.

    So even as the markets gapped up during the European session and we thought we were up and away, the opening of the US session closes this little ‘trap’. The ascending triangle spills out like a waterfall with accompanying sell off.

    The important component is understanding whether market participants want out or not, that will determine the severity of the sell off. As it was, a very clear buy-the-dip signal was made as the 5 day moving average was tested – which coincided with Tuesday and Wednesday’s lows.

    The Q’s proceeded to bounce off of this support and return to the HoD before making new highs. Whereas Tuesday the Q’s respected resistance, today the overcame it to close at EoD on this resistance, now new support.

    That sort of strength has to be respected. See attached.

    I keep observing the Q’s because it has the potential to be forming a diamond top. It doesn’t mean it has to, but the Q’s are clearly working their way through resistance at this point, which is marked in the attached chart.

    One important sector I have forgotten to monitor along with the indexes is SMH, the semis. And they are making new highs, which is what you want to see in a new advance. BUT, look at the volume in this advance. See the weekly chart of SMH attached. Can you see volume on this latest advance? If so, you have better eye sight than I do.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&p=D&b=5&g=0&i

    One can see in the daily SMH chart link above that this rally is fueled by nothing – (a Seinfeld rally :) , not a solid case for a bull market breakout. I’ll monitor SMH here as it attempts to break previous highs as resistance. I notice already the potential for bearish divergence in MACD.

    Precious metals looked pumped yesterday as the dollar was ditched but note where silver is now – back under 30.00. That’s not bullish IMO – one can make the case for consolidation at these levels – I can only watch and wait. $silver:$gold weekly remains risk off.

    As does $TNX – 10 year yield. While the weekly remains under the 8MA, then flows from bonds to equity are not likely to occur, if I understand Bill correctly. See attached.

    Stick to your stops.