Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 8, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[9:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Action in gold yesterday was positive. As it often does, it found support on a major fibonacci retracement, in this case the 50% retracement. This move came as Ben Bernanke spoke before the Senate. As long as there are issues, he has proven that he will print, print, print and both stocks and commodities like liquidity.

The worry is that we will not know when Big Ben’s printing press strategy has gone too far until after inflation takes hold. In other words, price inflation gets ugly long after the money is injected into the system and once that train starts to move down the tracks, it is difficult to stop. That is called hyperinflation and hopefully is not what gold and equities have been sniffing out with their current rally.

Traders that are not worried about the end of the world continue to buy dips and the market is looking for any reason to rally. If good news is released about the economy – the market rallies. If bad news is released about the economy – the market rallies because traders know that further QE is in the cards. When will this current “risk-on” period end?

There are various ways to measure “risk on”, but one of the most intuitive is the ratio between the Nasdaq Composite to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. If traders are looking for beta, Nasdaq stocks are bought (and the ratio rises) and conversely, if they are looking for safety they are buying Dow stocks (and the ratio falls). If you want to view this yourself you can do so by entering $COMPQ:$INDU into stockcharts.com. You can see that we are in a “risk on” period and the ratio is as overbought as it has been in the last 3 years. Although it is not a great timing tool because bullish sentiment can run for longer than shorts can remain solvent, the ratio at these levels has been a key warning sign for a stock market decline.

So; we remain cautiously bullish having added a few Cara 100 longs yesterday (with GTC sell-stops entered immediately upon execution).

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,260.00 5:56AM EST Up 41.10 (1.85%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,284.09 6:54AM EST Down 2.17 (0.09%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,427.91 6:54AM EST Up 16.37 (0.48%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,795.06 6:36AM EST Up 40.86 (0.60%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 326.33 Feb 3 Up 3.27 (1.01%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 467.75 6:36AM EST Up 5.22 (1.13%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 339.03 6:59AM EST Up 2.46 (0.73%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,182.83 6:43AM EST Up 25.24 (0.41%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,900.37 6:36AM EST Up 10.11 (0.17%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,022.70 6:54AM EST Up 20.40 (2.04%) Chart, More
ESI500000000.MA IGBM 894.01 6:40AM EST Up 2.65 (0.30%) Components, Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,560.60 7:54AM EST Up 4.57 (0.29%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 812.76 6:43AM EST Up 10.55 (1.32%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications 10:30 AM ET EIA... [#104742]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
  2. 5 in Distribution Zone 4 in Sell alert Accumulation... [#104743]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 5 in Distribution Zone
    • 4 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 4, Weekly 0, Daily 2
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 11, Weekly 32, Daily 42

  3. ... [#104744]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑
  4. ... [#104745]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  5. http://btjunkie.org/goodbye.html The media space is in... [#104746]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://btjunkie.org/goodbye.html

    The media space is in much turmoil as the old media companies try to maintain their failing hegemony of content while the average consumer can pirate top quality films at speeds previously unheralded. That was until the US Justice Dept went after this high flying fat fool hiding out in NZ who made his fortune ripping people off:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/9027871/Kim-

    I have a legal obligation to say that I don’t use torrent file sharing for the purpose of downloading films, but the media sharing model is top notch – second to none. I don’t know why mainstream media companies cannot do similarly.

    Apple is starting to move there, but a recent look at their Itunes store in Switzerland featured overpriced German language movies, compared to what I’m buying from Amazon.co.uk. 90% of my movie content is consumed on DVD because my wife needs the English subtitles. I certainly don’t speak German, so Apple can go jump.

    I actually loaded up Itunes and my library onto our 3rd computer in the last 5 years, just last week. Because I’ve changed the operating systems on two of those computers, Apple now tells me I can no longer share my content on any other computer. So here’s a media corporation telling me that my media is to be locked up and no longer shareable on any other system.

    I’ve decided I no longer like Apple and seek out another media platform with which I can play, buy and burn. I’ve the impression that just like the NY banks, so do the major media corporations run the US Justice Dept. in the direction that it suits them. The world feels more like a corporatocracy than anything else today.

    I’ve got some 200 titles sitting in the cellar, so I don’t want to buy more. As an example of the dilemma I face in wanting to watch something, I see “The Debt” on Amazon.co.uk’s site that looks interesting. I want to watch it.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Debt-DVD-Sam-Worthington/d

    I don’t want another disc in the house and don’t wanna pay for the manufacturing and postage of a physical disc. This epoch is finished. I do have a box top content provider wired up to the television and computer but the Swiss cinema association has got the law fixed so that DVD’s cannot be sold or rented in Switzerland while they are on the big screen.

    Cinema’s are dinosaurs that don’t yet realise that they’ve become obsolete, so they fix the law to maintain their relevance. It’s why I buy from Amazon. No one releases DVD’s faster than them. They don’t offer digital downloads, and I can imagine media laws forbidding them the digital rights to multiple countries.

    Media consumers continue to get the short end of the stick in Europe. If anyone has practical solutions I would like to hear of them. Actually in having written this post I think I need to become a buyer and seller of 2nd hand DVD’s through Amazon, so as to keep the content coming but consuming it for a lower price. What a pain in the backside.

    • Les, a few years back we talked about this. I built a page... [#104749]
      By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑

      Les, a few years back we talked about this. I built a page to get me into content and stoped cable. I don’t try and use Mega for the page. The links are to other pages and it might help where you are. HULU and Nexflix I believe are blocked but the others might work.

      No adds or profits for me.

      Streaming media:

      http://cvip.fresno.com/~mag77/

      Also designed a homepage for Stock Market:

      http://cvip.fresno.com/~mag77/stocks/marke.htm

      Value added content I hate my broker as they don’t provide good phone service to Canadian stocks. When you tell them I am looking at Canadian Venture and some one got 100,000 shares for zero point five I would like to also do that why do they bid it at zero point four five Canadian and tell you the deal is done at point zero five. Exchange rate on 5 cents was .049911 yesterday and they put me under the pack at .045

      CGR spun off this lake bed but we don’t really talk penny stocks so I won’t mention it’s symbol but lots of holes and as much interfered.

      Best of luck

      The Kid

  6. Good morning. 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (+7.5%) 10:30... [#104747]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (+7.5%)
    10:30 Crude Inventories

    ——

    There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

    ——

    “If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains set lightly upon you; and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.” ~ Samuel Adams

  7. Yesterday afternoon, there were press reports that the ECB... [#104748]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Yesterday afternoon, there were press reports that the ECB would be willing to exchange Greek debt for EFSF bonds but would not take losses in the exchange. Under any agreement, the EFSF would return the bonds to Greece and then Greece would repay the EFSF for the price at which the fund bought the bonds from the ECB. There has been no official denial of these reports as of now.

  8. COST - The warehouse giant gets resumed with a Market... [#104751]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    COST – The warehouse giant gets resumed with a Market Perform at Raymond James.

    DIS – numbers raised at UBS. Shares of DIS now seen reaching $42, according to UBS. Estimates also increased on generally solid quarter. neutral rating.

    DIS – Walt Disney numbers boosted at Morgan Stanley. Shares of DIS now seen reaching $46, according to Morgan Stanley. Estimates also upped, given higher Parks margins. Overweight rating.

    KO – numbers upped at BofA/Merrill. KO estimates were boosted through 2014, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said. Company is seeing higher growth in North America. Buy rating and new $75 price target.

    KO – Coca-Cola estimates, target raised at UBS. Shares of KO now seen reaching $73, according to UBS. Estimates also increased on solid global volume growth. Neutral rating.

    NKE – estimates, target raised at UBS. Shares of NKE now seen reaching $115, according to UBS. Estimates also increased on revenue upside and improving GM visibility. Buy rating.

  9. The news that the Ontario Securities Commission has accused... [#104752]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    The news that the Ontario Securities Commission has accused Goldcorp chairman Ian Telfer of insider trading and will commence a hearing into this matter on March 21 is a disappointing blow to Goldcorp shareholders.

    http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1127797–g

    Seldom does the OSC make such a charge against a prominent Canadian executive, and when they do, I believe they have solid grounds and intend to pursue the case vigorously. This could get nasty. It could extend into any manner of investigations at Goldcorp.

    On the basis that I choose Cara 100 companies based in part on integrity of the company and its senior officers and directors, I have no alternative but to remove Goldcorp from the Cara 100. A few years ago, the Goldcorp chairman pursued a case in court against Rob McEwen who was fighting an honest fight for the shareholders, one that I supported to the extent I sat in the hearing room with McEwen and his associates. But when Goldcorp won that case, I decided to drop the matter and selected Goldcorp for the Cara 100 based on other factors. This matter is a difficult one in that there are accusations only. But I have always written that despite my continuing differences with the actions of securities regulators, the bottom line is that these people are civil servants who are motivated to serve and protect, and for that we need to support them when they make accusations as serious as this one.

    The replacement for Goldcorp is Rubicon Minerals. As you know I hold a small RBY position in the Junior metals. I have been disappointed on several occasions with the management decisions of CEO David Adamson, leading me to sell my position from a relatively heavy weighting to a small weighting. Yesterday the company announced a $200 million bought deal financing at C$4.10/share to the company. This financing plus the July 2011 strategic investment of $70 million by Agnico-Eagle Mines and the $23.2 million investment by Franco-Nevada is enough for me to believe the big names in eastern Canada gold mining believe that Rubicon will be a huge success story. As the company gets closer to production, it might be that David Adamson, who is a notable explorationist, is replaced as CEO by someone with actual mining experience. In any case, all factors considered, I decided to replace Goldcorp with Rubicon Minerals in the Cara 100, which also means that my trading company will no longer trade in the shares of Goldcorp.

    http://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/rubiconminera

    http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1127797–g

    • Thanks for the information, Bill. In the last 2 weeks... [#104783]
      By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

      Thanks for the information, Bill.
      In the last 2 weeks there was a ‘reasonable’ move in GG’s price. I have held GG for a LONG time and noticed that whenever the PM’s went up, GG almost never followed and basically plateaued in terms of price movement. So on Jan 27th it almost hit $50 and I also sold. I was not aware of this news but it all adds up now.
      I am thinking of switching the GG investment to GIX though I realize they are a slightly different type of company.
      PMI has had a steady second burst of life since Jan 1st also.

      • Ventilation Blues, Re: "I am thinking of switching the GG... [#104784]
        By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

        Ventilation Blues,

        Re: “I am thinking of switching the GG investment to GIX though I realize they are a slightly different type of company.”

        My laugh of the day. Geologix has a market cap of about $50 million (should be $150 mil) and Goldcorp has a market cap of almost $40 billion. So GG is about 800 times bigger! This is not a “slightly different … company”.

        http://www.goldcorp.com/Theme/GoldCorp/files/2012_

        I really like Geologix — they will present their story and meet you all at the Cara Toronto Conference 2012 in late September — but this is an exploration play only. It’s not a mining company and it’s not a development company. They have, I think, a terrific resource (Copper-Gold-Silver) in Mexico that needs lots of work before they have what I’m anticipating they have.

        While Goldcorp is one of the world’s largest producers of gold, Geologix has some videos to show you: http://www.geologix.ca/s/Videos.asp

        • It opened my eyes to the nature of the game Bill, thanks... [#104785]
          By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

          It opened my eyes to the nature of the game Bill, thanks for the links. Goldcorp is impressive. GIX is a pipsqueak beside it, but has a sound project. I suppose there is a clutch of similar stories the globe over. The question that comes to mind, which ones are the chosen few that become mines?

  10. We have now submitted the manuscript for final proof... [#104753]
    By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑

    We have now submitted the manuscript for final proof reading, formatting and conversion to Epub and Kindle formats. Unfortunately we had to outsource it out of Canada.
    We outsourced it to an expert in the US… To a member of the armed forces in Florida.:)

    We will be ready for launch on March 1, 2012
    Cheers

    • The decision process for the final help we needed for the... [#104754]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      The decision process for the final help we needed for the e-book production went this way. Athan narrowed the list to three — all from different countries. He thought the Canadian was by far the best qualified, but he said that knowing me I’d want to help an out of work Air Force captain who recently returned to the States and needs the work. I let him make the decision, but he was correct in that the person he selected has served his country well and we need to do all we can — as little as it might be — to help people like that. I hope business owners in America get the message.

      • Correction: He is actually not out of work, he is still in... [#104758]
        By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑

        Correction:
        He is actually not out of work, he is still in active duty and looking to expand his horizons; he is in the last stages of acquiring his MBA on strategic leadership.:)
        Cheers

  11. I am pleased that my picks, except for AMZN, have boomed in... [#104755]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    I am pleased that my picks, except for AMZN, have boomed in the past four months — but I am particularly pleased with Toyota (TM), which I believed at the time was being driven down by over-hyped negative media.

    See attachment.

  12. This from Macquarrie this AM. Net of student loans... [#104756]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    This from Macquarrie this AM. Net of student loans, consumer credit continued to contract:
    In news hitting closer to home – U.S. Consumer Credit was released yesterday afternoon, showing another increase in borrowing at the consumer level (this number excludes real estate borrowing). The reality, as Econompic Data shows us, is that student loans are responsible for more than 100% of the increase in credit over the past year. Revolving credit and auto-loans are still contracting in aggregate, though this month’s release was the closest to growth we have seen for years in those sectors. Some commentary from Econompic:
    Over the past twelve months, consumer credit excluding student loans is still negative in nominal terms (down quite a bit relative to personal income), which means the consumer (excluding students) have still been in balance sheet repair mode. But, this is likely to flip positive in year-over-year terms next release, which would be good for the short-term recovery. Longer term we need corporations to step to the plate and hire, which would allow consumer credit to shrink as a percent of personal income, even if it grows in nominal terms.

  13. ... [#104757]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
    • That's old news. There's been notifications on that... [#104759]
      By: Seamus (476 comments) Go to top ↑

      That’s old news. There’s been notifications on that constantly for the last year, at least at my broker (Schwab). I also recall articles in mainstream media like the WSJ.

      Yes, unless you advise otherwise, trades are treated FIFO. Usually your broker will provide you the opportunity to decide how you want a specific trade treated if you want to change it to another (i.e. LIFO), but you should notify them at the time of trade or very soon thereafter. Some also allow you to designate a certain trade differently by noting it on their website prior to the trade.

      You should also be aware brokers are now required to provide a copy of your Cap Gains/Losses to the IRS. Next year this will also include option trades.

  14. ... [#104760]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑
  15. This is one of the primary indicators of market direction... [#104761]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    This is one of the primary indicators of market direction that I use. Typically when the Russell 2000 is leading the S&P500 I consider it to be bullish momentum. Looks to me like Russell 2000 may have just peaked versus S&P 500 in the short-term. RSI crossed above 70 and back below. I am not getting bearish but rather looking for a pullback to support to considering reestablishing positions.

    http://tinyurl.com/7dtgp7b

  16. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/entrepreneur-pushes-... It... [#104762]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/entrepreneur-pushes-

    It just feels right. I often wonder why the Europeans, Brits and Japanese don’t encourage the same. Without getting into the reasons why, it’s clear that the big US credit rating agencies have failed to meet their duty to clients and the market over the past decade. Maybe the competition would help rectify a serious problem.

  17. Geoff's "Risk On" measure via $COMPQ:$INDU for today's... [#104763]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    Geoff’s “Risk On” measure via $COMPQ:$INDU for today’s morning wisdom makes a lot of sense to me. The risk on, risk off has been confusing to me in these volatile chops. Thanks Geoff.

    Here’s a morphed indicator proxy to the now zirp Fed Funds rate from Martenson today:

    “Of course, the age of cheap oil is over. And as Jim Puplava says, the oil price is the new Fed funds rate, meaning that it is now the price of oil that sets the pace of economic movement, not interest rates established by the Fed. – Martenson

    That’s a two-fur in less than three hours! These should be short-term and long-term leading indicators for the risk on, risk off trade as it relates to the real economy. Fed funds rate used to drive the liquidity into the economy but now just serve the banks in an attempt to make them solvent before we all become insolvent. Oil price has always been a barometer but now it has more meaning with the Reserve Currency-Petrodollar in flux.

    Cheers.

  18. Several days ago I posted about unexplained and very steep... [#104764]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    Several days ago I posted about unexplained and very steep fall in gasoline use in USA in the first month of 2012 and slow fall of diesel use in USA in entire 2011 (no 2012 data yet).

    This is a part of the bigger, global picture:

    “After two quarters of meager growth in Q2 and Q3, 2011, demand for oil around the world surprisingly contracted in the last quarter of the year by 300 thousand bpd. In just four quarters, the world economy moved from posting the second largest annual oil demand surge in more than three decades to experiencing an outright demand decline.”

    “The global oil demand decline has been very apparent in OECD nations, but now emerging economies are also starting to see a marked deceleration in their consumption patterns. China’s oil demand picture is striking, with consumption in December of 2011 pretty much remaining at the same level of the previous year despite a GDP growth rate of 8.9 percent in Q4, 2011.”

    From http://arabnews.com/economy/article571206.ece

    What the article doesn’t mention, this is the first slowdown in global oil use since 2008. If you ask me, there is no decoupling and world is already in undeclared recession. But, almost no one knows it yet.

    And here is a gem explaining who killed economy in 2011 via high oil prices:

    “Using historical data on money supply growth from the OECD and BRICS economies, BofA Merrill Lynch estimates that the first $1.7 trillion tranche of quantitative easing alone impacted oil prices by 11 percent, with a twelve-month lag. The second tranche of $600 billion finalized in Q2, 2011 contributed to a pick up in oil prices of another 11 percent. It also estimates that a third tranche of quantitative easing $600 billion could bring Brent oil price to levels above $120 a barrel.”

    • Jack - High commodity prices on the heels of QE suggest... [#104765]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      Jack -

      High commodity prices on the heels of QE suggest that the fiat currency is failing, not so much the oil demand. Too ironic that BofA Merrill Lynch highlights the oil inflation in USD as a lagging cause of the QEs. Check out Martenson’s chart ‘Past Price Hikes Fed Recessions’ about half way down the link.

      http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/why-currency-fa

      OPEC, semi-controlled by the House of Saud, will either tamp down the price in USD with a glut of supply or start COOKING THE BERNANK IN HOT OIL. BofA can attribute QE all it wants to the opaque oil price mechanisms but the oil cartel is the antonym to the banking cartel when it comes to global production economics.

      Cheers.

  19. I bought a Chinese stock, ASIA, and did not sell near its... [#104767]
    By: moragakd (47 comments) Go to top ↑

    I bought a Chinese stock, ASIA, and did not sell near its high, and now am underwater quite a bit. It is my understanding that recently a component of the Chinese government is interested in purchasing all of the company stock at an unknown amount. Yesterday, the ASIA board hired Goldman Sachs Asia as its financial advisor to evaluate the proposed purchase. I am not sure what the relationship is between GS Asia and GS, but it strikes me that the one world market concept is at play here even when the Chinese government as a bidder.

    • moragakd - "I am not sure what the relationship is between... [#104768]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      moragakd -

      “I am not sure what the relationship is between GS Asia and GS, but it strikes me that the one world market concept is at play here even when the Chinese government as a bidder.”

      Martin Armstrong, who advises the Chinese gov’t, has pointed out in his writings that the highly centralized Chinese gov’t traders are trained on the West’s trading floors. In the US, the Fed trades for us based on Ivy League demagogury. I wouldn’t expect GS to influence Chinese trade decisions based on this observation.

      Cheers.

  20. ... [#104769]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑
  21. A bronx cheer for Groupon's earnings (or lack thereof)!... [#104770]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    A bronx cheer for Groupon’s earnings (or lack thereof)! Glad I held that short – it was admittedly getting nauseating, especially this afternoon.

  22. I am lightening up on equities as i do not enjoy trying to... [#104772]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    I am lightening up on equities as i do not enjoy trying to squeeze juice out of a rock.

    i am not in the camp of all the sell side data advertisements. I stand steadfast on the real economy. try to upgrade your job or sell your home or start a new business. then tell me things are going well.

    My focus will be on currencies, until i see some sort of pullback to react to on equities. i am not saying i am bearish on stocks. just not willing to buy into a frenzy.

    I am however very bearish on business conditions, jobs, housing, and debt.

    good luck folks

  23. JB With the majority of the US experiencing a mild winter... [#104774]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

    JB

    With the majority of the US experiencing a mild winter, most snowplows have spent the winter in the garage. NEast consumers needed less fuel oil for heating. Lots of diesel demand lost in that market niche. . More snow less driving. US gasoline demand would probably have fallen even more had the winter not have been so mild

    The ArabNews reports a 272,000 bpd drop in demand in the Eurozone. They reported world demand was down 300,000 bpd… so the Eurozone makes up 90% of the 4th qtr loss. A 300,000 bpd loss for a month is $2.97 Billion @$110 pb.

    Chinese demand was flat even though GDP growth was nearly 9%. Emerging market demand is now slowing.

    If oil traders decide the demand will continue to fall, I bet they could take oil down $20+ a barrel tout suite. IMO, the world runs better on $80 oil than the current $100. I could accept the recovery theory a bit more if oil could fall to a lower price. Will the blowback from US money printing hold the price over $100… time will tell. The cartel is probably in the drivers seat… they can cut production to keep the price up if need be. As long as money printing goes continues, the price will probably stay high.

    Personal Note Regarding the Eurozone:

    A friend of mine spent the month of Jan in Rome Italy. Just back, he told of gas prices topping $10 per gallon . He said that he saw a car half the size of a Smart Car cruising down a Roman street. We both agreed we were fortunate living in the US when it comes to personal transportation. In Rome congestion was excessive. Parking and driving as well as public transportation were all overwhelmed. Most of the cars are small and smaller. Many of the other Euro countries have very high gasoline or diesel prices so it’s understandable pressure on the cost of living is causing less spending for petrol. He revealed that the Italians are really being squeezed by rising prices and higher taxes and now capital controls. He also mentioned the mafia was alive and well. The Rome of his youth was gone, replaced by foreign residents, overpopulation, crime, corruption and economic degradation.

    However, the countryside is still very nice. A zone in central west Italy called Le Marche was especially fine.

  24. ... [#104777]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑
  25. Attached. Note that production started during Q3 for... [#104778]
    By: George (619 comments) Go to top ↑

    Attached.
    Note that production started during Q3 for XBG.

  26. I found a stock with many drill holes and more going with X... [#104780]
    By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑

    I found a stock with many drill holes and more going with X proven and X inferred. It was spun out of a merger with CRG last Thursday. It was 10 then 8 then 6.5 and yesterday someone cracked it 23% more by getting it to 5. I liked that and in minutes was on the phone with broker to purchase 45,000 shares for $2.300.

    Short version told broker it was in Canada selling on venture board for “point zero five” and I wanted it. Trades must be limit with broker not market. Watched during day as .o5 orders went away and an new bid of .045 showed up.

    I had none when I got home strange as they ran the bids all out at one point.

    Calling local and national offices they were no help as to why told me to call at 4 AM California time. At 4 AM I was asked to call back at 5 AM then asked to call later.

    This morning in good faith at 5:30 I adjusted my bid to .054 and less shares as that put me on top the bids. Remember no Market bids.

    Was told yes we placed your bid at .o45 yesterday. The recording clearly stated .05 their excuse was the exchange rate to Canada. How wonderful is the internet it showed yesterday and today exchange was 1 Canadian equals .996 of US Dollar.

    Not being good at math I multiplied the .045 times 20 and got .90. Hum, 10% in the exchange rate. ST had no answer for this.

    After repeated calls I asked for a supervisor and he wanted to know what I wanted him to do.

    I told him we made a deal and he received a omission to sell my CEF to cover the trade and due to negligence on the part of the dealer I was harmed and wanted to be made whole.

    It closed at .10 tonight on heavy trading (who know it is new) but higher than my other exploratory holdings.

    Bill refused to chase Ore Bodies and I refused to modify my order to 1/2 the shares I agreed to purchase for my account.

    Will get an call tomorrow so they say.

    O yes I told them to take it from what they made when they put 10,000 shares of Apple in my account in 08 when I asked for 100 shares of Apple @ a hundred for 10,000. In that mess they locked my 60,000 account and wanted over 1/2 million on a margin call. A few days later it rose and they told mt they were reversing the trade. I asked where is the difference as you told me I owned it?

    Might as well get it all out. Three weeks ago I send my wife with a check for her birthday to buy a Canadian stock. Comes home with a pink receipt in her name and her account number. Next day we are told no money in account no trade. That night my account has the money and an open trade I never placed. The story is they looked at the check not the account. OK, that puts it in my account but how did someone place the trade in my account when my wife called and asked for 4000 of XYZ be bought for her account.

    Bad Broker

    Called Interactive Brokers today starting the process.

    When is the last time you did every thing you could to watch an 100% gone in a day due to incompetence.

  27. thanks for that Geoff. I noted SPY losing ground to IWM the... [#104787]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    thanks for that Geoff. I noted SPY losing ground to IWM the other day. IWM:SPY shows the same thing, RSI passing below 70. Don’t know if its as applicable as your paired chart.

  28. ... [#104786]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.robertsinn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/

    Robert Sinn is picking my thoughts again, in looking at 2011 as the most recent market cycle and the limited applicability of such an analog in determining where we are now.

    The floodgates of especially ECB money have probably just begun opening. I don’t know if deflationary pressures triggered by Greece will cancel out those inflationary pressures, so I just go with the loose monetary policy the ECB has taken, probably to be backed up by further Fed easing this year in order to make the political circus that is the Presidential elections run as smoothly for the masses as they can. With elections in France, the US this year and Germany next year they would no doubt like to keep the ship sailing smoothly.

    CEW – emerging market currencies. broke through the 200MA and ran smack into 2010/2011 resistance. Signs of some easing off there which may help the dollar short term. see attached. Perhaps Yamada is right. This year it’s invest America and this is as high as foreign currencies get, who knows? One can see the weekly chart running smack into 50MA resistance and RSI leaving the 70+ distribution zone shortly. See attached.

    $CPCE – equity options showing complacency as usual. see attached.

    $NAMO – NASDAQ total market breadth. Notice how the tech index market breadth just continues to back off while the index continues to climb higher. Is it distribution that leaves someone holding the bag shortly or the pause that refreshes before the market continues higher? see attached.

    Market behaviour is hardly bearish at the moment. Looking for a pause that refreshes or a silly season breakout that traps the latecomers short-term.