Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 24, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning. The Shanghai Fly checked in today:

————————————————

Bill,

A few interesting developments in the Chinese markets.

(1) Property stocks are rallying steadily

(2) P/Es of new issues are at very low levels. IPO for China Communications Construction, which is a major market focus, will have a P/E of around 10 or lower. Though this means little in itself, it is a sign that Chinese investors are quite cautious and perhaps even too cautious. There is not that much bubble mentality in market participants, and that is a basis for a rally

(3) Recent reduction in reserve requirement ratio, which may be a sign of monetary easing

(4) Poor economic figures over the last month, but stocks just keep rallying.

May be worthwhile for you and community members to follow up.

Yours,

/anon

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Have a good day. Mine will be spent in Miami, Naples and back to Ft Lauderdale. The weather’s terrific.


Good morning, Geoff here.

Our “stop execution strategy” rolls on with excellent results. There are no perfect trading strategies, but when the market is in a slow grind higher, mechanical tactics remove over thinking and keep you on trend. However, as usual, we have made some mistakes along the way.

We sold AAPL on the February 15th bar. That bar was just too ugly to ignore so maybe I shouldn’t call it a “mistake”. When you have huge gains in a stock you need to avoid greed and make prudent decisions. The plan in a trade like that is to take your gains, which we did, and then buy it back if it makes new highs. Normally, if that tactic works you will give up a couple of percent in the total gains but if you bought on the initial buy signal, you are so far ahead of the game that it doesn’t matter. Unfortunately, that bar in AAPL had a $30 range so if you sold at $500 and end up buying it back at new highs you will have given up over 5% in gains. Well, we shall see what happens down the road in that stock but for now we have no position.

A stock that I am kicking myself for not being long is Suncor SU. Six days ago it bounced off of the 200 dma which was bullish. We are bullish oil/energy stocks and the earning estimate strength for SU is one of the strongest in the energy group so it popped up on the radar for a long candidate. At the time, we were very long energy, materials and precious metal names and we already had buy stops in place for other energy stocks, so I set a resting order below the market. The order came very close to being hit but we didn’t get our price. Now, we sit here and watch the stock move to over bought with no position.

I guess trading is a lot like golf. You have some great shots and some bad shots but your overall score is all that matters in the end. Fortunately, we are shooting under par right now so there is nothing to complain about.

As far as the current conditions go, our stance has not changed. Unless the dollar bounces right here, we see a lower dollar and higher stocks and commodities. As a matter of fact, I don’t see anything to keep gold from hitting its all time highs as early as in a few weeks.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,221.17 6:44AM EST Up 56.17 (2.59%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,262.25 6:59AM EST Up 9.10 (0.40%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,464.12 7:00AM EST Up 16.81 (0.49%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,867.81 6:45AM EST Up 58.35 (0.86%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 325.70 6:44AM EST Down 0.52 (0.16%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 483.84 6:44AM EST Up 4.27 (0.89%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 344.09 6:44AM EST Up 0.77 (0.22%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,177.74 6:45AM EST Down 23.23 (0.37%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,943.89 6:45AM EST Up 6.00 (0.10%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,010.50 7:00AM EST Up 15.90 (1.60%) Chart, More
ESI500000000.MA IGBM 858.08 6:45AM EST Up 0.05 (0.01%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,579.35 7:45AM EST Up 41.85 (2.72%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 750.05 6:44AM EST Up 3.52 (0.47%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth

PDAC shout out

The Cara Team will be attending the PDAC, March 4th to 7th, 2012 at the Toronto Convention Center.

Click here for more info on the 2012 PDAC.

Athan and I will be there camera in hand to capture some moments and interviews with exhibitors.

Email or post any companies you are looking for coverage on.

We hope to arrange a meet up with Bill, time and date TBD.

Thanks,

jeffborsato@caratrading.com


  1. 9:55 AM ET Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET New Home... [#105492]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 9:55 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
    • 10:00 AM ET New Home Sales
  2. 2 in Distribution Zone 9 in Sell alert Accumulation... [#105493]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 2 in Distribution Zone
    • 9 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 3, Weekly 1, Daily 3
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 12, Weekly 27, Daily 22

  3. ... [#105495]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  4. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT S.A (QOQ) Germany for Q4 Actual:... [#105496]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT S.A (QOQ) Germany for Q4
    Actual: -0.2% Cons.: -0.2% Previous: -0.2% Revised from 0.6%

    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT N.S.A (YOY) Germany for FY11
    Actual: 1.5% Cons.: 1.5% Previous: 1.5% Revised from 2.6%

    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT W.D.A (YOY) Germany for Q4
    Actual: 2.0% Cons.: 2.0% Previous: 2.6%

    http://www.destatis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/d

    ————————

    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (QOQ) UK for Q4
    Actual: -0.2% Cons.: -0.2% Previous: -0.2% Revised from 0.6%

    [coincidently the same as Germany, including the revision downwards, or a typo? - Les]

    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (YOY) UK for FY11
    Actual: 0.7% Cons.: 0.8% Previous: 0.5%

    TOTAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT (YOY) UK for Q4 preliminary
    Actual: -2.0% Cons.: 2.2% Previous: 4.3%

    TOTAL BUSINESS INVESTMENT (QOQ) UK for Q4 preliminary
    Actual: -5.6% Cons.: -0.7% Previous: 1.0% Revised from 0.3%

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  5. Good morning. 09:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final 10:00 New... [#105497]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    09:55 Michigan Sentiment – Final
    10:00 New Home Sales

    ——

    PG – Buckingham upgraded Procter & Gamble to Buy from Hold. The firm expects earnings to accelerate given the company cost savings initiatives. Price target is $77.

    TGT – Target upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies based on expectations for a rebound in sales, lowered expectations, and improving execution. Price target raised to $63 from $49.

    ——

    “The best government is the one that charges you the least blackmail for leaving you alone.” ~ Thomas Rudmose-Brown

  6. ... [#105498]
    By: lowpickr (153 comments) Go to top ↑
  7. Just a thanks to Bill, his partners, and all the community... [#105499]
    By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

    Just a thanks to Bill, his partners, and all the community participants for contributing to my continued success at learning to trade more profitably. I took many 20%+ gains off the table yesterday and this site and it’s constant tutorial are the reason for my improved decisions.

    DBerry

  8. ... [#105500]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑
  9. Thanks for sharing a couple of mea culpas, reminding us all... [#105501]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Thanks for sharing a couple of mea culpas, reminding us all that nobody gets things right all the time and the objective is to be approximately right overall.

  10. NFX - Barclays gives an Equal Weight-from-Overweight... [#105502]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    NFX – Barclays gives an Equal Weight-from-Overweight reduction to NFX.

    NKE – The athletic apparel outfit is a new Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.

    PG – added to Top Pick List at Citigroup. $47 price target. Overly punished regarding San Bruno disaster.

    ——

    Other stocks of possible interest:

    AAUKY.PK – Anglo American is cut Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan.

  11. It's always good to see how the rest of the field is... [#105503]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    It’s always good to see how the rest of the field is playing it. Zachs points out that retail investors are “risk out” as was mentioned here yesterday. Fund managers underinvested. Rosie has a different view, seeing too much optimism out there. Things to be aware of

    Zachs
    Rotation or Accumulation?

    Kevin Cook here, watching the sleeping bull for one more day until Steve returns. I think he went to the White House again to talk some sense into the President about this dividend idea.

    One of my favorite bull market environments – besides over-emotional corrections [2010] and unwarranted recession panics [2011] – is the slow grind higher that everyone doubts can keep going. Today’s market looks a lot like parts of 2006, 2009, and 2010 where the ground game ruled. In other words, the market fights for every first down with a low-key running game that averages 3 yards per carry.

    This is because lots of portfolio managers are UNDER-INVESTED and why we don’t get even a 3% pullback to buy, let alone a 5% one. They are not rotating out of stocks up here at S&P 1,360. They are building positions for the next leg higher, afraid to be left behind. And there is just enough doubt and money on the sidelines to keep this going, oh, until May.

    Steve has talked about this before in terms of the market that doesn’t seem like it’s rallying, but when you take a look every few weeks you notice your portfolio is up 1-2% more than it was last time. And I frame it as a market that fights with disbelief more than a wall of worry. I explain it in more detail in my reply to today’s Real-Time Insight, “The S&P 500 Looks Cheap.”

    Think of it this way: If lots of investors and PMs are holding extra cash, waiting for the correction that never comes, what happens when the S&P hits 1,400? That money will start to move in, sort of like an “upside capitulation.” However this unfolds, it will be extremely fun to watch. Especially if you have good positions now and profits to take later”

    Rosenberg
    February 24, 2012

    In this issue (Subscription necessary which i don’t have but i get the outline delivered each morning)

    “What could upset the apple chart? In a replay of events this time last year, investor optimism is near an extreme according to many measures and views over the economic outlook have become much more constructive. This is the perception and it is well ingrained. But there is also the reality that some critical hurdles for the economy loom on the horizon and should not be dismissed out of hand.”

  12. Re: Valuation of Exploration Potential Submitted by... [#105504]
    By: Northern Otoko (91 comments) Go to top ↑

    Re: Valuation of Exploration Potential

    Submitted by Juniorgoldminer… (33 comments) on Thu, 02/23/2012 – 20:04 #105478(in reply to #105476)

    Thanks Northern… yes I realise getting into production is the hardest part and majors are risk averse looking for the very best opportunities.

    …..

    ————————-

    I agree that some of these projects will become successful especially the ones near roads and existing infrastructure. I like the ones you mentioned.

    The Yukon only has ~30,000 pop within a size slightly larger than California. I have attached a map from the Yukon Geological Survey website. There is a lot of land staked out currently. Most of these areas are accessed by helicopter. I don’t see the government, 1st Nations and Yukon people allowing uncontrolled development of mining projects even at higher prices. Being a Canadian, in the mining industry and owning land in the Yukon (soon to be home), I agree with sustainable growth in the mining industry. I currently live in Perth Oz, involved in the Iron Mining business. Here mining seems to have no limits where most projects are accepted and growth seems to move at light speed. The cost of living is flying and basics are becoming luxuries. I personally don’t want this type of growth and mining in my back yard.

    Another challenge will be negotiating permitting and agreements with our 1st nation groups. The earlier they are engaged and involved in the process the quicker things will go. Currently the Yukon government is coming under pressure for wanting to release more land to exploration (Peel Watershed). The current government is very pro mining. http://www.yukon-news.com/news/27248/
    Current land claims maps http://www.eco.gov.yk.ca/pdf/fn_trad_terr_map.pdf

    Here is another good link with all the details behind getting a mine into operation in Canada, a process which takes 5-10 years. (http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/minerals-metals/aboriginal/…)
    http://miningyukon.com/communityenvironment/firstn

    I am heavily invested in Jrs and I am not anti mining but I am cautious about being overly optimistic. I have been involved in a greenfield project in the NWT and understand the challenges involved.

    • Thanks Northern, Really great for a "Retail-ie" like me to... [#105507]
      By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

      Thanks Northern,

      Really great for a “Retail-ie” like me to get thoughts from someone local and knowledgable in the industry.

      The end 2010 / into 2011 was hugely “promotional” in the Yukon and many will have got hurt. I was lucky to get some Atac following Rick Rule’s Rule Family Trust on SEDI in Jan 2009, my best ever. (Does anyone understand whether he had to stop these investments joining with Sprott? Looks to have no insider positions anymore).

      I think we agree there will be select situations which will travel the full journey. I take Kinross’ purchase at Whitegold as indicative, though their situation doesn’t say quick delivery either.

      The reality will take a long time but along the way I see some dramatic investable moves.
      So with the two hats on, as speculator/trader, there will be a lot of “action” to watch and trade here through discovery cycles and “area play” effects.
      On long term investment “optionality” I think a number of localised district successes would add value to the current $1bn Cap, certainly in a big bull market where the “retail-ies” will arrive in force, unblinkered by the proper issues of practical mining managers! But eventually real value.

      I think the over-optimism left the room in Autumn 2011 for most of us in juniors – except that SLR chart which rose through Sept/Dec 2011 for Kaimu! Truly a junior investment rather than speculation.

  13. PG - PT Lifted from $70 to $72 @ RBC. Outperform PG ... [#105505]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    PG – PT Lifted from $70 to $72 @ RBC. Outperform

    PG – target raised at Oppenheimer. Shares of PG now seen reaching $75, Oppenheimer said. Savings should provide firepower to pursue goals. Outperform rating.

    TGT – estimates lowered at UBS. TGT estimates lowered through 2014, UBS said. Reduced profitability and declining credit card segment. Buy rating and $63 price target.

  14. Good news comes out and it drops... [#105506]
    By: Northern Otoko (91 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good news comes out and it drops 15%…

    http://micro.newswire.ca/release.cgi?rkey=20022470

    • NO Interesting insights from Aus. Explains the RE bubble... [#105509]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      NO
      Interesting insights from Aus. Explains the RE bubble. What is your opinion of Guyana value viz a viz say PMI which has roughly same oz. in the ground? Do you have insight into comparable value of these two? Isn’t it true that now the mining decision is a fait accompli that speculators lose interest, and maybe the thing to do now is watch for them to build the mine and look to buy again when they are close to production…probably 2-3 years away. By that time the stock price will have drifted much lower due to disinterest. Any thoughts?

      • The first question that occurs to me is where does the 1/2... [#105510]
        By: papadynamite (446 comments) Go to top ↑

        The first question that occurs to me is where does the 1/2 billion $ come from? Do they have it on hand? Do they have to issue more stock to fund it causing more dilution?

    • Hi N. Otoko - Caught this clip: Guyana Gold (C$7.15... [#105514]
      By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi N. Otoko – Caught this clip: Guyana Gold (C$7.15, -C$1.25, -15%) released results of its feasibility study for the Aurora project in Guyana, which Raymond James said “were not as robust as we were anticipating.” I should think all they need is mini nuc reactor and economics would look pretty favorable. Do you think an entry here in the $7 range is prudent? Happy Trading

  15. Is anyone famiiar with this... [#105508]
    By: parkmca (38 comments) Go to top ↑

    Is anyone famiiar with this site?

    bullionbullscanada.com

    • I'm wary of it because it is owned by Jeff Nielson who set... [#105511]
      By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

      I’m wary of it because it is owned by Jeff Nielson who set up Stockhouse and he links in with Doug Casey, so things can get quite promotional, but it’s a business and we read for free.

      However the list of companies in “mining company database” seems fairly longer running, if retail/promoted stocks, rather than hot pumps, though can never say that in this sector.

      I’m certainly no expert but the company write ups and due diligence by Brian Boutelier “Boot” appear a genuine set of work, covering projects, resources, management, ownership etc – they don’t offer opinion which you can see as a strength or weakness.

      Like so many online resources hard to prove how up to date without re-tracing but a reasonably good start off point.

    • any site who's title takes a position in a sector is to be... [#105513]
      By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

      any site who’s title takes a position in a sector is to be avoided.

      if i started a site called “buy_wheat.com”, you might be suspicious of my ability to objectively analyze the wheat market because of my bias towards bullishness.

      these sites are aggregators of sorts, pushing the same old material about how bullish gold is and how great a host of mining companies are no matter what their performance in the past 5 years.

      imho.

      Jeff

  16. Both these writers offer a product to subscribe to and... [#105512]
    By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

    Both these writers offer a product to subscribe to and publish public articles to a “goldbug” audience.

    Jordan Roy-Byrne was fairly conservative about Gold miners and juniors during 2011, which was a good call from a “promoter”. He now points to a stronger market from a 3-4 year technical view. Just noise or a multi-year base to climb from?
    http://www.safehaven.com/article/24479/gold-stocks

    Against a sound money perspective Bonds seem an awful investment, but the 30 year bond bull has been and is until it isn’t.
    I like Biiwii’s caution at the top and bottom of the 30year bond “continuum”. He sees us with plenty of headroom for the inflationary / hard assets direction
    http://www.safehaven.com/article/24477/despite-obv

  17. I wish for once I buy something, it spikes up 16% the very... [#105515]
    By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

    I wish for once I buy something, it spikes up 16% the very next day instead of -16%. SVM is still fresh in my memory; and RBY … ouch !

  18. This piece below from Marginal Revolution is a great... [#105516]
    By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

    This piece below from Marginal Revolution is a great piece:

    http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2

    Things often move in ways contrary to how we think. China is opening a car manufacturing plant in Bulgaria, a low cost EU future member state. This cuts down on shipping costs for one of China’s biggest future markets and minimizes the “made in china” stigma many hold when it comes to higher end items.

    Who would have guessed that in the future, long after our manufacturing regions of old surrendered to lower cost producers abroad might one day see a return of industry. Yes Bulgaria is not the once productive industrial Ruhr valley of Germany, but when one speaks of “manufacturing” returning to a particular state or region, there is no doubt new car plants opening in the EU at the behest of the Chineese is an encouraging sign.

  19. I see the speculators have gotten a hold of the crude... [#105517]
    By: speculation101 (21 comments) Go to top ↑

    I see the speculators have gotten a hold of the crude prices again or does anybody think Israel will really attack Iran?

    • baz - Any summary for us busy executives as to why we... [#105520]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      baz -

      Any summary for us busy executives as to why we should listen to this particular Jim Sinclair broadcast? Something besides “QE to infinity, gold is going up, up, up…”

      • Why, yes ! Good explanation of ' modern day young-gun... [#105521]
        By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

        Why, yes ! Good explanation of ‘ modern day young-gun trading mentality ‘, and how little attention is paid to the past.. aside, the LTRO coming up in March will, as Mr. Buf says ‘ show who’s not wearing a bathing suit when the tide goes out ! “… and Dave, put the keyboard down, and get back to work !

  20. Gix.to up 18% so far today , no news today, first thing... [#105518]
    By: johnuk (860 comments) Go to top ↑

    Gix.to up 18% so far today , no news today, first thing yesterday stated new drill targets after Airborne Geophysics & Fieldwork at Tepal.Why up today and not yesterday?
    F.D. I have a small position in Gix.to

  21. So California was facing a $3.3B cash shortfall by April... [#105522]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

    So California was facing a $3.3B cash shortfall by April, with spending still out of control and not matching revenue.
    Sounds a bit like Greece.

    S&P raises their rating to positive outlook.

    JPM and Barclays extends a big bridge loan to help out.

    California issues $860M of 100 year bonds with a yield of 4.9%… yes that’s right…100 year bonds. 2112 maturity.
    Who in there right mind would buy California 100 year bonds at 4.9% ?

    I guess Meredith Whitney didn’t count on these type of kick the can schemes when she warned on the problems
    of state finances a couple of years ago.

  22. broken record. volume is... [#105523]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    broken record. volume is anemic.

    • It's nice to hear nothing but crickets chirping... [#105531]
      By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

      It’s nice to hear nothing but crickets chirping occasionally, at least for the all-weather portion of the portfolio.

      Boring = good.

      Sometimes.

  23. might be time to check out some radiation exposure... [#105525]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    might be time to check out some radiation exposure stocks..

  24. Papa, You don't build a mine with equity financing. You... [#105526]
    By: schnauser (31 comments) Go to top ↑

    Papa,

    You don’t build a mine with equity financing. You use debt. That’s why part of the feasibility study talks about IRR and how many years until payback. Once a project is de-risked, and the mine actually gets built, there’s plenty of cash flow to pay back debt financing in a prudent manner.

    The key here is that the base case uses $1300 gold to generate a decent although not mind blowing scenario. Are you really basing your investment in GUY on a gold price for the next 5 years of $1300? If I thought gold was going to $1300 and staying there, I sure as s..t wouldn’t be hanging around here (or PDAC) looking to fund my retirement.

    I too am frustrated by today’s collapse, but the resource will expand further, and a major will want this property. If the take out price is only a 30-40% premium to today’s closing price, yeah that will be lame, but I won’t be losing any money, or sleep on the investment. That’s the game here. If plan B means I make/lose no money, then that’s a margin of safety type investment, and considering the potential upside, a prudent risk to take.

    • Schnauser, "You don't build a mine with equity financing... [#105527]
      By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

      Schnauser,

      “You don’t build a mine with equity financing. You use debt. “

      I am not sure why you say that? There are a number of companies that build mines using cash raised in equity financings. It all depends on what terms a given company can secure in the debt vs equity markets. Look at Banro for instance, they just built a mine in DRC entirely funded by equity financings. They just recently took out their first debt financing after the majority of construction was complete. In the current environment, and especially in dicier political jurisdictions, most banks don’t want to provide initial construction financing. They would rather lend against a base of assets than simply a project approval and a nice land package.

  25. Billy, You are right, in that its a case by case basis. I... [#105529]
    By: schnauser (31 comments) Go to top ↑

    Billy,

    You are right, in that its a case by case basis. I am thinking about GUY and a big mine that needs $525M and the world bank is involved, you are hopefully going to be able to use debt. Otherwise you are going to give the whole company away. No?

  26. I think we all answered our question on GUY 1. Speculators... [#105532]
    By: Northern Otoko (91 comments) Go to top ↑

    I think we all answered our question on GUY

    1. Speculators are mostly out due the awaiting feasibility trigger is over
    2. How many speculators will stay hoping a major buys them out?
    3. How much money will GUY invest in expanding their resources, required I believe to attract more buyers
    4. If they finance and build and retain ownership it will be a long ride waiting for the next price trigger
    5. How much will construction really cost (time cost escalation) and who will finance?
    6. Will they start focusing on their other exploration targets thus re-starting the speculation cycle?

    Model of Classic Mining Company Share Price Cycle
    http://www.caseyresearch.com/printArticle.php?id=63

    • Hi N. Otoko - Following your link I came up with the Oxford... [#105533]
      By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi N. Otoko – Following your link I came up with the Oxford Club – being a private investment club. Here is their info on “Gold Fountain Inc”, being a massive sulfide exhalative deposit somewhere in New Guinea. This is a hoot. And how about the regime’s claim of supporting reasonable energy resource development over the last three plus years – au contraire & another good belly laugh. Happy Trading

      http://oxfordclub.com/visitors/

      • http://www.nautilusminerals.com/s/Home.asp "Nautilus is... [#105537]
        By: Northern Otoko (91 comments) Go to top ↑

        http://www.nautilusminerals.com/s/Home.asp
        “Nautilus is developing a production system using existing technologies adapted from the offshore oil and gas industry to enable the extraction of these high grade Seafloor Massive Sulphide (“SMS”) systems on a commercial scale.

        The world’s first seafloor copper-gold project, Solwara 1, is under development in Papua New Guinea. Utilising technologies from the offshore oil and gas, dredging and mining industries, the project will mark the launch of this new deep water seafloor resource production industry.”

        I think Nautilus maybe the “Gold Fountain Inc”. Very interesting concept but as of yet untested and still very speculative. I saw them present a couple of years ago at the Vancouver CIM conference (Very interesting). Great potential if they cen get the technology right with minimal environmental impact. Anglo American (owner of DeBeers) owns 11.1% of NUS.

        DeBeers has a fleet of vessels for mining/dredging the bottom of the ocean off the coast of southern Africa (Namibia).
        http://www.debeersgroup.com/en/Operations/Mining/m

  27. ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to... [#105538]
    By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑

    ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg Surveillance to point out that U.S. economic growth has actually slowed in recent months, contrary to the consensus view.

    http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveill

    See also John Hussman’s take on where we are in the current business cycle.

    http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc120220.htm

    Things ahead are so bad (money velocity is at historic lows and most coincident indicators of the business cycle have either plateaued or are heading downwards) that all of the major CBs (the FED, the ECB, the BOE, China, Japan) are gushing money (which seems to be going into the stock market- not the economy). Who believes that all we have to do to revive the world’s growth is to print more money?

    How is this different than early 2008?

  28. Consumers are still not in condition to increase spending... [#105539]
    By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑

    Consumers are still not in condition to increase spending significantly. Real disposable income less government transfer payments has not been growing, and transfer payments have peaked. Median home prices have dropped about a third since the 2006 top and about a fifth of homes with a mortgage are underwater. Almost two thirds of homes undergoing the foreclosure process have not been sold- a huge overhang which will probably drop prices further.

    Although consumer confidence has been rising recently, it still remains at recessionary levels. And now, average gasoline prices nationwide have climbed about 10% since December, and are approaching an all-time high. The geopolitical situation in Iran, Syria and the Mid-East is (to put it mildly) potentially explosive. Past recessions have almost always been preceded by significant rises in gas prices.

    The stock market is close to its 2011 high; sentiment has risen to levels associated with steep corrections or outright bear markets. The latest Investors’ Intelligence survey shows over 50% bullish and a bull to bear sentiment ratio close to 2:1. About 85% of stocks are above their 50-day averages, while volume and new dally highs have been declining as stocks advance. The transportation stocks have been lagging badly. All of that loose CB money seems to be making its way into the stock market; how long can that continue?

    • normxyz, If you are going to copy and paste other people's... [#105541]
      By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑

      normxyz,

      If you are going to copy and paste other people’s intellectual property please give proper attribution. In addition please take a few minutes to give us your thoughts on the content you are presenting. This would make it more like a discourse. Thank you for your understanding.
      Athan

    • normxyz - Lions and tigers and bears, oh my! That's a... [#105540]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      normxyz -

      Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

      That’s a myopic view that fails to account for the massive global money flows moving out of Europe and junk public debt instruments and into U.S. equities of companies with hard assets as a hedge against monetary collapse.

      It’s happened throughout the millenia. A few recent examples: U.S. Great Depression publically traded european debt in the U.S. collapsed while equities soared in 1929; Weimar Hyperinflation of 1922-23 saw German Corporate stock certificates trade like cash; cigarettes in the burgeoning U.S. penal system.

      Cheers.

    • ... [#105555]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  29. Kochs vs. Pres Obama - can it get any more... [#105547]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    Kochs vs. Pres Obama – can it get any more controversial?

    http://www.kochfacts.com/kf/obamaletter/

    • ALOHA!! The guy who wrote the Koch letter to Obama'a... [#105549]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      The guy who wrote the Koch letter to Obama’a campaign manager, Phillip Ellender, of Koch Industries does a disservice to taxpayers with the following comments:

      “My comments about unions to the Palm Beach Post referred to government employee, taxpayer-funded unions. It is a fact that the deficits facing many local and state governments are caused in large part by the wage, pension and benefits packages these unions have negotiated with politicians, at the expense of taxpayers. These unions contribute to the growing government debt and they threaten private sector jobs and growth.”

      He actually thinks that government unions, where workers are employed by the Federal, State, County and City governments directly are the only “taxpayer funded” unions in America. Sorry Phillip, but you must also include the taxpayer funded trade unions who work under the Congressional mandate of the Davis Bacon Act from the 1930s. All public works projects are taxpayer funded and must adhere to the monopolistic union wage rates of the Davis Bacon Act. When government dictates wage rates on public projects we will always have a conflict of interest with unions while the taxpayer ends up paying much higher labor rates than free market rates determined by free market demand and supply as well as qualification and performance. The Davis Bacon Act is contributing more to the government debt than any other direct government union job. The construction of any school, prison, airport, highway, dam and any all infrastructure projects are dictated by Davis Bacon wage rates. Even if you are a non-union contractor you must bid public works projects using Davis Bacon wage rates and if awarded the project you must pay that union scale prescribed. There is no way around it … It’s a political iron clad labor rate monopoly.

      Mish is also onto the Davis Bacon Act union labor monopoly and its fiscal bankruptcy effects at all governmental levels. It is a political tool well used by both political parties for many decades now. As entrenched as Social Security and Medicare.

  30. Jim Rogers in his Blog is hinting at the coming importance... [#105548]
    By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

    Jim Rogers in his Blog is hinting at the coming importance of Myanmar . On posts for 24th and 25th of February . Does anyone follow and have knowledge of industry and investment in Myanmar ? Bob. http://tinyurl.com/8tqo4l

    • Hi BOB47, I found this webpage on the Wallstreet Journal... [#105569]
      By: johnuk (860 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi BOB47,
      I found this webpage on the Wallstreet Journal entitled “Investing in Myanmar as Reforms Spread” Its dated 30 November 2011 and gives a short summary of the pros and cons to investing in Myanmar.
      John.
      http://tinyurl.com/7lponr3

  31. ALOHA!! I got this email today from the Asante... [#105550]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    I got this email today from the Asante Gold(ASE:TSXV) CEO Doug MacQuarrie(former PMI GOLD CEO)regarding the upcoming IPO next week:

    Just a quick update to let you know that final closing of the IPO
    offering is scheduled for next Tuesday, 28 February. Following
    closing, we would then anticipate that the shares will commence
    trading a few days later on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol
    “ASE”. The offering was oversubscribed and essentially sold out in
    just two days.

    Share and warrant certificates will subsequently be delivered to each
    shareholder/shareholder account per their subscription instructions.
    With respect to shares issued during the private (non IPO offering)
    stage which are subject to various hold periods under securities
    regulations and as fully outlined in the prospectus, each shareholder
    will receive for each private stage offering they participated in, 5
    share certificates: each one for 1/5 of their subscription and each
    with a different “free trading as of” date. The same will apply for
    any attached pre-IPO private stage warrants.

    The work program on the property, as outlined in the prospectus and
    technical report, will commence immediately after the listing is
    completed. Primarily it is a 5,000 metre drill program to test the
    geophysical structures outlined in the pre-IPO work programs. First
    assay results will be expected by mid April – depending on assay turn
    around times at the laboratories in Ghana. The drill program is
    expected to take 3 months to complete.

    We look forward to a strong news flow stream during this period which
    will keep you informed of material developments. The company web site
    http://www.asantegold.com is also expected to go live after the listing, so
    please check it for additional information.

    I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who
    participated in making this a successful offering.

    Best Regards,
    Douglas R. MacQuarrie
    President

    Asante Gold Corporation

    • Hi Kaimu - Thanks for the original heads up on PMI and I... [#105551]
      By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Kaimu – Thanks for the original heads up on PMI and I look forward to trading Asante. Quality people make it happen. To Vad thanks for your continued clarity of observation, guidance and for linking the Koch letter – darn radicals.. amazing the impediments the administration provides to any rational resource development. Happy Trading

  32. http://wapo.st/AeNZ8M Looks like a replay of last Autumn... [#105553]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://wapo.st/AeNZ8M

    Looks like a replay of last Autumn. Strikers and non-strikers at loggerheads and here was me thinking that the settlement of the pay dispute would put an end to it. I think there are some deeper issues here.

    Freeport Indonesia accounted for 19 per cent of the company’s revenue last year, but would have been more without the disruption to output.

  33. http://tgr.ph/zCFJFg According to the IEA (prodigious... [#105554]
    By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://tgr.ph/zCFJFg

    According to the IEA (prodigious under-estimators); while OECD countries oil use is falling, demand is increasing in non-OECD countries which will push global oil consumption up by another one per cent this year.

    Just waiting for the recovery to take hold.

    • Like we were 60 years ago, the Chinese are just beginning a... [#105561]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      Like we were 60 years ago, the Chinese are just beginning a love affair with the auto that is probably a long secular trend until their cities look like ours. Gridlock, freeways, road trips. Think of romance of the car culture in America, embedded in all those movies, not to mention, it’s still the dominant transportation mode today. Global gridlock will end it. Smart cities like Vancouver are building above ground rapid transit and wrapping the stations with condo towers and shopping malls with all the necessities. Then they hammer the drivers with parking surcharges in UG and street parking. The parking lot owners are complaining because the strategy is working. Making sense

      • Yes, agree. It's a similar story in India. Compare the oil... [#105563]
        By: Mark H (1363 comments) Go to top ↑

        Yes, agree. It’s a similar story in India. Compare the oil consumptions of these two countries with what they were 10 years ago and project forward in time.

  34. ... [#105557]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  35. Grym, you are on a roll! reminds me of the bear market... [#105558]
    By: Bear E (287 comments) Go to top ↑

    Grym, you are on a roll!
    reminds me of the bear market story below.
    thngs are getting better….
    Bear E

    Two guys were out backpacking in the woods. Around a bend in the trail they came face to face with a bear. One guy drops to his knee, fetches his running shoes from his backpack and begins removing his hiking boots. The other hiker just stares and says, “There is no way you can run faster than that bear.”

    The kneeling guy stands up and replies, “I don’t have to be faster than the bear. I only have to be faster than you.”

  36. A Utube link from this week's... [#105559]
    By: 123 (78 comments) Go to top ↑

    A Utube link from this week’s Barron’s.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLynuQebyUM

    Ken.

  37. ... [#105564]
    By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Thanks for keeping this issue in front of us Jock. Very... [#105567]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      Thanks for keeping this issue in front of us Jock. Very disturbing

    • Hi Jock - Guess I have deducted from quite a while ago the... [#105570]
      By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Jock – Guess I have deducted from quite a while ago the powers that be can track/intercept one’s every move and utterance. Marketing of the data is another matter, but until someone starts using my social securty for crimianl intent it is what it is – progress. How about your latest mining concerns of merit? Thanks for keeping us apprised of the electromagnetic spectrum/internet security issues. Happy Trading

  38. ... [#105565]
    By: Pierre (96 comments) Go to top ↑
  39. ... [#105566]
    By: Pierre (96 comments) Go to top ↑
  40. (GR) Greek Govt economic adviser Hardouvelis: Cannot... [#105568]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    (GR) Greek Govt economic adviser Hardouvelis: Cannot imagine Greece leaving eurozone

    I’d suggest some exercises developing imagination… art classes maybe? Gotta develop that right half of the brain, ya know. (Sarcasm mode off, I am good till tomorrow)

  41. ... when grandpa does... [#105571]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    … when grandpa does this?

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2012/02/w

    Got gold?! Hey, and I thought he was banned from the LBMA for attempting a silver corner after the Hunt Bros. did it.

    Buckle up.

    • Warren's got his own printing press in case Ben's crashes... [#105574]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      Warren’s got his own printing press in case Ben’s crashes and burns.
      Bill, wise move.
      PDAC is going to be explosive, looking forward to your and other’s bulletins from it.

  42. Our friend Dave Patch has sent notice of a documentary... [#105572]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Our friend Dave Patch has sent notice of a documentary coming out March 1, 2012 that all investors, traders, regulators and criminal prosecutors must watch.

    http://www.thewallstreetconspiracy.com

    When this film is available, let’s discuss it here.

  43. ... [#105575]
    By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑
  44. Enjoy! in a few weeks it will be my... [#105576]
    By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑

    Enjoy! in a few weeks it will be my turn…
    Cheers

  45. Keeping off the net the weekends in order to bring some... [#105577]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    Keeping off the net the weekends in order to bring some balance into my life – more time with the family etc and some big plans for the garden this Spring, so a quick and dirty look to start the week.

    $INDU daily – bearish divergences continue building. The relative weakness in the trannies is noted.

    TLT weekly – the potential for a bottoming out of indicators, implying some strength to return to bonds sooner or later. I use the weekly time frame as the daily is noise to me.

    $gold:$silver weekly – the potential for further risk on is there. I do not some short term pivot potential from reading Armstrong’s latest – not sure of the implications as of yet.

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/The%20Curse/i

    $TNX weekly – it was 4 weeks ago that I noted a doji on the weekly $SPX chart while the 10 year was caught up in this triangle. Little has changed since.

    Ditto the FCX daily chart, whose reversal signal was clearly printed. The extent of the sell off is now clear, along with potential strength as it finds support at the 8MA…

    … which along with CAT are part of the group of usual suspects I watch daily. CAT has continued higher from what was a short term exhaustion gap a month ago, but the RSI bearish divergences build, which is a red flag.

    I think Sinn summed up the week well. The market has the potential to continue frustrating both bear and bull alike. Of particular notice was the energy sector leading the rally, which as he remarks is often short lived.

    http://www.robertsinn.com/2012/02/25/sage-weekly-l

    The problematic of advancing energy prices and Fed expectations in any further QE they may be planning is worth the time to think about, although Sinn, like Geoff, doesn’t discount the potential for further market advances.

    Armstrong notes the potential for a new equity bull market beginning as money flees sovereign stupidity, although the picture of potential market chop from here through to September when he sees a major turning point is likely to frustrate many. A time to be writing puts and calls on dividend paying stocks?

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Soverign%20De