Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 15, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[8:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

This is part of what I wrote last Thursday, Feb 9th:

“With that said; everything is stretched. A quick glance at the charts leads me to think that the dollar should rally while stocks should fall. Barring central bank intervention, that would be the way to position a portfolio right now – at least not buying stocks at these lofty levels. However, we have seen that when central banks are involved, “stretched” can turn into “ridiculously stretched”. This is a time to be patient, watch prices and trade accordingly.”

Well, the dollar DID rally for the last 3 days. However, stocks held up very well when they should have sold off. What that tells us is that when the market “should” sell-off, but doesn’t, that central bank liquidity is trumping all technical and sentiment indicators. I have been writing about the possibility of a run-away market for a few weeks now and that thought stemmed from what happened during past periods of QE. We are now in a global liquidity pump and it is quite possible that the market runs to new highs and becomes “stupid”, running like Forrest Gump.

As I have mentioned, our basic strategy in stocks has been to have sell stops in place for current holdings should the market sell off AND have buy stops in place should the market move to new highs. It will be interesting to see if our buy stops get filled today because we are over-weight stocks in All-Weather. Our Growth strategy has a normal long stance. So; any new buys will raise our risk level and that will have to be monitored closely.

As Forrest Gump’s mom said; “stupid is as stupid does”. Let’s make some money!

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,212.93 6:44AM EST Up 37.22 (1.71%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,244.15 7:00AM EST Up 9.77 (0.44%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,407.72 7:00AM EST Up 32.08 (0.95%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,812.41 6:44AM EST Up 84.22 (1.25%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 324.60 6:44AM EST Up 2.73 (0.85%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 475.28 6:44AM EST Up 4.23 (0.90%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 339.55 6:43AM EST Up 3.86 (1.15%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,197.25 6:45AM EST Up 33.43 (0.54%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,918.61 6:44AM EST Up 18.74 (0.32%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,013.70 6:59AM EST Up 9.00 (0.90%) Chart, More
ESI500000000.MA IGBM 885.27 Feb 10 Down 11.06 (1.23%) Components, Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,576.07 8:00AM EST Up 19.85 (1.28%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 800.86 6:44AM EST Down 17.24 (2.11%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. Does anybody know what specifically happened last night at... [#105083]
    By: speculation101 (21 comments) Go to top ↑

    Does anybody know what specifically happened last night at around 9:30 p.m. when the S/P futures shot up about 10 points in a few minutes?

    • yeh, the shorts got spanked. Looks like it fed a nice... [#105084]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      yeh, the shorts got spanked. Looks like it fed a nice little short-covering rally into close. But given the DB evident in SPY, traders should have been wary of such an event.

      At a guess I’d say traders were in the know on the prelim GDP numbers being released by Germany the EU this morning, indicating a shallower contraction than previously made clear to us by the fear mongering MSM.

  2. http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,151... who... [#105085]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,151

    who would have guessed? I like forward to seeing how the airline carbon tax unfolds. The EU seems to have a lot of hubris and ego invested in its grand collective projects. I wonder what the eventual costs will be?

  3. ... [#105086]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  4. ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (3M) February Actual: 8.4% Cons.:... [#105087]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (3M) February
    Actual: 8.4% Cons.: 8.5% Previous: 8.4%

    February UK ILO Unemployment Rate remained unchanged from January’s 8.4% level, according to data released today by National Statistics. Analysts expected an increase to 8.5%.

    Claimant Count Rate was flat in February at 5.0% for the fourth consecutive month and despite forecasts of a rise to 5.1%. The number of unemployment people in the UK grew to 6.9K, following a 1.9K reading registered in January and exceeding expectations of a rise to 3.3K.

    UK Average Earnings excluding Bonus edged up 2.0% in February, compared to 1.9% in January and above market consensus of 1.9%. UK Average Earnings including Bonus remained at 2% in February for the second running month.

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  5. ZEW SURVEY - EXPECTATIONS Switzerland for February Actual:... [#105088]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    ZEW SURVEY – EXPECTATIONS Switzerland for February
    Actual: -21.2 Cons.: Previous: -50.1

    falls in line with EU and German surveys posted yesterday, indicating improving expectations.

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  6. Tata Motors global sales rise 21%! China pledges aid to... [#105089]
    By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

    Tata Motors global sales rise 21%!

    China pledges aid to Europe

    Comcast will buy back shares after reporting positive results

    Berkshire taking stakes in Directv & Liberty Media

    Kellog’s acquiring “Pringles” from P&G after Diamond Foods fraud troubles

    Positive talk from Washington that payroll tax breaks will be renewed

    Jeremy Lin scores winning bucket in waning seconds of last night’s game

    …and gold is up(Paulson may be selling, but Soros is buying)!

    • Up Day ahead for crude oil futures prices for sure. Iran... [#105091]
      By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

      Up Day ahead for crude oil futures prices for sure.

      Iran is “revising” oil sales to six countries:

      Greece(ouch), France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands

      I suppose Iran is beating the sanctioning countries to the punch.

  7. Good morning. 07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (-1.0%) 08:30... [#105090]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    07:00 MBA Mortgage Index (-1.0%)
    08:30 Empire Manufacturing
    09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows
    09:15 Industrial Production
    09:15 Capacity Utilization
    10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
    10:30 Crude Inventories
    14:00 FOMC Minutes

    ——

    GGB – Gerdau SA downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup citing the recent rally in shares.

    ORCL – Oracle downgraded to Above Average from Buy at Caris who said Oracle’s synergies buying of JAVA have not materialized as quickly as expected and that Sass acquisitions appear somewhat defensive.

    VALE – Vale downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.

    ——

    “It is sobering to reflect that one of the best ways to get yourself a reputation as a dangerous citizen these days is to go about repeating the very phrases which our founding fathers used in the struggle for independence.” ~ Charles A. Beard

  8. ... [#105092]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  9. I think so. Bonds, dollar and VIX show the true colors of... [#105093]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    I think so. Bonds, dollar and VIX show the true colors of the markets again.

  10. ... [#105095]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://registeredrep.com/news/obama_budget_showers

    That’s an increase of +18.5%. Maybe Congress could hire the extra staff from the military and reduce the budget there to make the whole thing a wash.

  11. (US) Fed's Fisher: Would not support QE3; gas tank for... [#105096]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    (US) Fed’s Fisher: Would not support QE3; gas tank for monetary policy is full and ‘too full’; economy is doing better than expected
    - There is no need for QE3 unless the US slips into deflation
    - Claims QE3 is a ‘fantasy of Wall Street’>
    - Expects hiring to improve as companies become more comfortable that Europe will materialize into prior fears

    • That is a lie. The way stocks and commodities (including... [#105112]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      That is a lie. The way stocks and commodities (including gasoline) surged in the last couple of months would be impossible without QE. If Fed is not doing it, it must be someone else (ECB?)

  12. ... [#105097]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
  13. 7:00 AM ET MBA Purchase Applications 8:30 AM ET Empire... [#105098]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
  14. 7 in Distribution Zone 4 in Sell alert Accumulation... [#105099]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 7 in Distribution Zone
    • 4 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 4, Weekly 1, Daily 9
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 12, Weekly 27, Daily 25

  15. the entire market has become the stage of AAPL's... [#105100]
    By: SmallCapFan (34 comments) Go to top ↑

    the entire market has become the stage of AAPL’s show.
    Bond forex equities did not correlated to each other any more in past months.

  16. some selling. I joined the party. short NQ, Pound and... [#105101]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    some selling. I joined the party. short NQ, Pound and Euro

  17. Farage: Globalist Troika Driving Greece Towards Violent... [#105104]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

    Farage: Globalist Troika Driving Greece Towards Violent Revolution; Godfrey Bloom calls Eurobonds “Pathway to Hell” like Subprime Mortgages

    European parliament member Nigel Farage blames Troika for the violence and destruction in Greece.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

  18. ... [#105105]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑
  19. Economy See: Monthly U.S. Product Supplied of Finished... [#105106]
    By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑

    Economy

    See: Monthly U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels per Day) http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?… showing gasoline “product supplied” from 1945 to 2011. This shows gasoline has declined about 700,000 barrels per day from 2007, from 9.2 MBD to 8.5 MBD in November 2011. This represents about a 13% decline.

    Electrical power consumption http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/elec… never recovered the levels of mid-2008- it peaked in mid-2011 and began a sharp decline in late 2011.

    The secular decline from the 2006 peak is especially striking . (It is perhaps no coincidence that the housing bubble peaked in 2006-07 along with the extraction-of-home-equity craze.)

    Stocks

    So far this February, buybacks net of selling is down to $600 million daily, more than two thirds below the $1.9 billion daily buying pace from October through January. The reason, new stock buyback announcements are at the lowest rate since late 2010. If new offerings jump from an average of $500 million daily so far this month to a more normal $2 billion daily, then the house would be a net seller for the first time in quite a while.

    More not bullish news: insider selling has zoomed to over 15 times insider buying in February and that compares to a five times insider selling to insider buying ratio in January.

    Check out the Nasdaq (^IXIC) to NYSE (^NYA) volume ratio. When investors are betting heavily on the riskier Nasdaq over the more conservative NYSE, it’s indicative of extremely frothy bullish sentiment and often marks the blow-off phase of a rally. And when investors get too bullish, it can indicate that there will soon be a shortage of buyers in the market. (Bullish investors having already bought in on anticipation of higher prices — so once everyone’s bullish, there’s nobody left to buy.)

    This indicator triggered just a few days ago, on February 9, and has now triggered again for a second time. Two triggers have never happened this close together.

    Small trader sentiment can also be garnered by examining Rydex funds, which are geared toward the mom-and-pop investors — who are, of course, the least informed players in the market. So, the majority of the time, when these very small investors get ultra-bullish or ultra-bearish, the move is almost over.

    Anyway, to get an idea of just how rabidly bullish small investors are: a look at Rydex Nasdaq non-leveraged funds reveals that there is now $80 invested in the bull funds for every $1 invested in the bear funds (!). This is a record extreme, and it illustrates that a ridiculous number of investors are betting on the bullish side of the trade. In a normal market, this would be punished quickly, but in a market that’s being driven almost entirely by trillions of dollars being flung out of helicopters by the Fed and the ECB (and even China), who knows how long it can continue.

    Still, at some point, the printing press money will be exposed for what it is really worth. At that point, look out below. Until then, remain cautiously bearish as the world economy goes into a funk and the CBs engage in competitive money printing (Japan has now embarked on its latest round of QE).

  20. I know many here love McEwen Mining (MUX), and indeed Les... [#105108]
    By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

    I know many here love McEwen Mining (MUX), and indeed Les has suggested it will be the only mining stock he wants to follow, setting up a blog to gather detailed knowledge “OnMux”.

    I see quite a number of you are looking at my blog, I won’t link again, and I’ve had a couple of emails about how to extend participation here.

    I know many (most?) of you here are traders trading the Cara 100 rather than stock-hunting around PDAC and the pennies etc.

    Who fancies the following?

    For the sake of clarity and brevity (realise my last couple of posts went on!) I’ll write up more detail / due diligence on my blog 3 explorers who I hope you don’t consider dodgy penny picks and I think fulfil a number of the themes I’m looking for in junior miners and explorers.

    1) Good people in Good Projects – key management previously with much bigger successful companies you may have traded.
    2) Prospect Generators – a less dilutive model for exploration
    3) Good Jurisdiction – Nevada projects plus others here

    Then if the traders amongst you want to stray slightly from the bigger stocks on the Cara100 would you offer trading opinions, on the stocks, good entry/exit points, price pattern, anything else. Personally I am keen to learn more here how to better trade these stocks around a core buy and hold.

    (I include TSX chart links just because they save the stock for me and stockcharts doesn’t. Can anyone tell me a good solution for linking automatically updating “live” mini-charts on my blog so those of you who, quite rightly I suspect, interpret the price patterns more than the promotion have more to get hold of?)

    So if anyone wants to look at
    1) Pilot Gold – PLG.TO (Ex Fronteer Team & projects- sold out to Newmont)
    http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=502

    2) Renaissance Gold – REN.TO (Ex Auex Team & projects – sold Long Canyon JV to Fronteer before above)
    http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=764

    3) Corvus Gold – KOR.TO – (Ex International Tower Hill management and projects spun off from Livengood deposit)
    http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=589

    I don’t hold them as competing with MUX but for comparison MUX market cap is $680m, Pilot $103m, Renaissance $31m, Corvus $33m.

    Full Disclosure – I Own Corvus and Renaissance, may be looking to get into Pilot.

    Sorry – Struggling with the brevity thing!

    Regards

    • I enjoy your site. However, I find it a pain in the a... to... [#105115]
      By: papadynamite (446 comments) Go to top ↑

      I enjoy your site. However, I find it a pain in the a… to trade Canadian stocks. When I use the US equivalent trade symbol, there is very little volume in the U.S. which I don’t like. I use Schwab and to trade directly on Canadian stocks, I have to call their trading room for a quote because of the currency difference. Therefore, I wish you good luck on your trading but I’ll stick to US exchanges.

      • I'm with Papadynamite... wish I could trade the Canadian... [#105119]
        By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

        I’m with Papadynamite… wish I could trade the Canadian stocks

        • papadynamite and tradylady - I have some Schwab accounts I... [#105127]
          By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

          papadynamite and tradylady -

          I have some Schwab accounts I trade for relatives and contacted a broker last year who told me Charlie is hard at work to allow electronic trading on large foreign bourses including TSX. He said “early next year” which is right about NOW.

          Cheers.

          • No excuses then....! Canadian juniors for all.... So tell... [#105128]
            By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

            No excuses then….! Canadian juniors for all….
            So tell me what you see, how you’d trade the 3.

            I’ll try to type up some dd on the blog.
            Turning into a Nevada exploration theme now – oops.

            What would the price action be telling you as traders?

          • Hey juniorgoldminer, We are planning to start a few more... [#105148]
            By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑

            Hey juniorgoldminer,
            We are planning to start a few more blogs here at CaraCommunity as a way to diversify and give everyone the opportunity to focus on specific areas of interest; Yes, one of them would be the Junior Gold Miners.

            Thank you for showing up and participating. I have a lot on my plate right now, but I am looking forward to contributing and being more active in this discussion in the near future. I will be at PDAC and willing to visit companies of interest.

            Cheers
            athan

          • Sorry... [#105129]
            By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

            Sorry again

          • papadynamite, tradylady, Dr, Strangelove I happened to... [#105143]
            By: Seamus (476 comments) Go to top ↑

            papadynamite, tradylady, Dr, Strangelove

            I happened to talk to Schwab (Global) about a week ago. A representative advised trading on a number of foreign bourses will be operational come June, although it could be later in the summer. Schwab tends to be conservative in implementing new programs by thoroughly testing and working out the bugs.

            As info, Barron’s had an article in last week’s magazine (think February 6th edition) which described Fidelity’s new foreign bourse trading which just recently became operational.

      • Hello Papadynamite, you surprise me that it is so hard to... [#105125]
        By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

        Hello Papadynamite, you surprise me that it is so hard to trade Canadian stocks in the US, I have read that the low volume (on the “pinks” is it?) can be a nightmare. Is the “OTCQX” helping at all?
        http://www.otcqx.com/qx/

        I notice quite a number of stocks have been listing on the Amex/NYSE and it has prompted big price movements, though of course it is hard to separate other drivers. Pretium and First Majestic are recent examples I think. Worth looking out for this in advance as a re-rating driver. A reminder of the power of you big US buyers expanding your universe of miners and explorers!

        Is there a good list of NYSE/Amex listed precious metal stocks and I can try to reference US symbols when I write?

        I am investing from the UK and find it very easy to access the Toronto and venture stocks using TD Waterhouse, I can set limits, stops etc, though not trailing stops unfortunately. I can also hold the Toronto-board stocks in “ISA-accounts” which gives an annual allowance to invest whereby subsequent capital gains are tax free.

        I started my journey into junior miners looking at UK boards and the main London and “AIM” market (kind of our venture market) but the liquidity and spreads are horrible and I find the companies hard to research. I had mainly poor results, bailed out by a few good wins with Canadian or Australian stocks which dual list in London.
        I know some like Otto at Inca Kola are sceptical of the Canadian market and I do see the promotions and insiders getting in and out ahead as an issue but equally it is the THE centre for the miners and especially the explorers. From my point of view it’s reasonably accessible and transparent.

        I do feel the big thrills will come in the venture explorers at some stage and have found no ETF’s or funds that really get down to this level.

        What are other US based investors doing to be in it to win it?
        As Jim Slater says “Elephants don’t Gallop”.

        Any Aussies? Where is the best place to understand Australian Gold miners and explorers?

        Oh and TRADERS do those Nevada charts say anything?

        • Juniorgoldminer - Great effort at your site! You ask "Any... [#105130]
          By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

          Juniorgoldminer -

          Great effort at your site! You ask “Any Aussies? Where is the best place to understand Australian Gold miners and explorers?” I strongly urge you to look up ‘kaimu’ aka Stephen Wellman who writes the Kaimu’s Sound Money column here. Stephen has offered impressive guidance on junior aussie miners in his writings here and at the annual conferences.

          He’s into private placements and offers much advice on this as well. Some of his picks include SLR, PVM, KRM, RMS … kaimu, you out there?

          http://caracommunity.com/user/236/comments

          Cheers.

        • Juniorgoldminer, I too use TDWaterhouse.co.uk to trade... [#105132]
          By: johnuk (860 comments) Go to top ↑

          Juniorgoldminer,
          I too use TDWaterhouse.co.uk to trade Canadian and Aussie miners or
          http://www.tddirectinvesting.co.uk/ as they call themselves now. Kaimu is the one you need to communicate with regards Aussie miners etc.Thanks to Kaimu I own a substantial amount of PMV (PMI Gold) and SLR (Silver Lake Resources traded on the ASX)and have profited well from them as a result.

          edit. Stocks mentioned by Kaimu on the ASX include:-
          SLR,RMS,KRM,SRQ and KMC.

          TSXV mentions GRR,BTC,LIO and ECX.

          • For Americans wanting to trade Canadian/Aussie/Hong Kong... [#105134]
            By: bobj (71 comments) Go to top ↑

            For Americans wanting to trade Canadian/Aussie/Hong Kong stocks, you should look at Interactive Brokers. You can trade most exchanges as easily as trading on New York. You don’t have to trade the Canadian or Aussie stocks with US symbols in the thinly traded Over the Counter or pink sheets markets — go direct.

            If Kaimu talks about SLR or Juniorgoldtrader talks about Canadian stocks, type the symbol in and hit “transmit”, and the stock is yours on the native exchange.

          • Excellent, so Interactive Brokers, Fidelity and Charles... [#105136]
            By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

            Excellent, so Interactive Brokers, Fidelity and Charles Schwab by June for US investors directly on the Canadian Exchange.
            Any others? – Don’t TD have a US operation friendly to their Canadian homeland like in the UK?

            Looks like as I found in the UK, some brokers are just better set up for international exchanges.
            So you could have a separate account for your risky Canadian junior mining investments, which is probably a good idea anyway as you can keep the speculative boxed off from your sensible.
            Then you wouldn’t have to close existing accounts?

            I thought you were all traders here but no-one wants to talk charts and trading for my Nevada 3 ??

            Any thoughts on how to get little live-updating charts onto my blog pages?
            Thanks.

      • papadynamite , When I trade Canadian stocks from the U.S... [#105147]
        By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

        papadynamite , When I trade Canadian stocks from the U.S. yes there is a little more effort , one I use a Canadian website to look a stock up and observe their volume in Canada . http://tinyurl.com/7nzmcoz When I first used Tradeking to buy Canadian Orebodies CNOBF , in Oct, they charged me their usual $4.95 fee but they also added a surprise $50.00 penalty fee . But they did buy me the stock I had requested . I also have an account at Muriel Siebert , my next order for CNOBF I placed there at their usual $14.95 a trade and there was no penalty fee . So now do my canadian trading at Siebert , over all cheaper and no hassle . Bob

    • JGM - Bill's link to Ritholz's article on the nature of our... [#105160]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      JGM – Bill’s link to Ritholz’s article on the nature of our counter-party risk to the global banking system sums up everything I want to say on holding MUX.

      From my domestic Swiss bank account I cannot trade Canadian stocks, only US listed. From this group of available mining stocks I am only interested in one jockey – Rob McEwen. Those shares are purchased through UBS’s trading arm and then delivered to my bank account. Hopefully that will be enough to survive the global collapse of banking some point down the road. Like Bill suggests a longer-term view is the right one to take. I see McEwen shares the same long-term vision.

      Everything else I own is in metal silver bars in a private segregated vault in a small state bank in Switzerland.

      The further away from Wall Street the better.

      • Les, When trading, it's hard to take a long-term as well... [#105161]
        By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

        Les,

        When trading, it’s hard to take a long-term as well as a short-term perspective. It’s necessary however, and I’m glad to see you do.

  21. Thanks for those picks JGM. Anyone here have insight into... [#105113]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Thanks for those picks JGM. Anyone here have insight into Mag silver? Showing life today with volume. I know some people here follow it.

  22. And its not even extremely a negative print. Which in... [#105114]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    And its not even extremely a negative print. Which in translation means there is more downside slack avail if sellers are motivated into the close.

    When i see this, i tend to leave on my short position into the close.

    good luck folks.

  23. Any last second bungee jump news stories? can Bernanke's... [#105116]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Any last second bungee jump news stories?

    can Bernanke’s magic wand save the Dow 100 pts in last 10 minutes?

  24. Both their charts look horrible. I have been putting in low... [#105117]
    By: papadynamite (446 comments) Go to top ↑

    Both their charts look horrible. I have been putting in low volume garbage bids and lowering each time. For MUX, I am only buying under $5/share. For RBY, I initiated at $3.77 and dropping the bid at least 8 cents each time I am filled.

    • Papa D, I got back into RBY recently, at $3.79, soon after... [#105135]
      By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

      Papa D,

      I got back into RBY recently, at $3.79, soon after Bill put it into Cara 100. Thought I had a good price since the finance deal was at $4.10. Not so sure now but I will be in it for the long term this time, hopefully.

  25. ... [#105118]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/volcker-rule-

    Volcker needs help from Obama and Congress in standing up for the people. If only DC represented the people and not the banks…

    • The article is excellent and well written. Questions... [#105139]
      By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

      The article is excellent and well written.

      Questions remain in my mind about FDIC coverage. Does it apply to Money Market $ in a bank? The treasurer of my condo association was told “yes” by the bank after I brought up the question of bad risk/reward for such presently. I am not so sure that MM’s are protected from “breaking the buck”.

  26. I shorted at 2596 this am when the break out... [#105120]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    I shorted at 2596 this am when the break out failed.

    Patience patience. Wait for setups and all ingredients to line up.

    Ironically 38 pts is same as Jeremy Lin vs the Lakers.

  27. The basic principle I teach is that "the market is... [#105122]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    The basic principle I teach is that “the market is marketing”. I advise traders to ignore the “news” because what you receive is just somebody’s message. Somebody who intends to hurt you. Once you decide to buy a stock, do it with a long term time horizon, buying some at times, selling some at times. Ecclesiastes says: “There is a time…”, which means all things in nature have a cycle. You need to stick to the trend and cycle data and make your decisions on facts.

    HPQ is more proof of concept. I wrote it up here at the time. See the attached chart.

  28. The way the Greek bailout 2.0 is being played by Europe it... [#105123]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    The way the Greek bailout 2.0 is being played by Europe it almost looks like officials are trying to slowly prepare the markets for Greek default.

    Am I the only one getting that feeling?

  29. http://bit.ly/wpWv0I Click on "Tomorrow" on the gray... [#105124]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://bit.ly/wpWv0I
    Click on “Tomorrow” on the gray header

  30. ... [#105131]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑
  31. ... [#105133]
    By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Cali Kid, I have been with Scottrade since mid '80's... [#105137]
      By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

      Cali Kid,

      I have been with Scottrade since mid ’80′s. Never had a problem. Then again, I never tried to trade on TSX and do not intend to do so. Did not even know I could if I wanted.

      • The local branch calls the main office who contacts the... [#105140]
        By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑

        The local branch calls the main office who contacts the agent in Canada who relays the information back to the main office who tells your local broker to tell you the deal. Then several years ago with Bombardier when I had paid the fees to own it in Canada they Pink Sheeted my securities without my knowledge or authorization a year later.

        I believe in meteorites and the metals they contain. I have created an account that is exploratory, junior minors and futures in silver and gold. I don’t see too many exciting companies in the States. The point, click and get has been error free with ScotTrade. But this last fiasco has made me think just how close do the auditors get to the small change in each deal rounded out. As they were showing me on my screen the bid placed at .05 but in fact had placed the bid at .045.

        On my last post I stated ScotTrade in their office gave my wife who was alone a receipt into her account number (we are separate accounts not joint with several years between our account numbers)to her name. The following day when she tried to trade to get Castle Peak Mining they said their was no such security. I told them to look in my account as they listed it as CAP.CA. The next day I found her funds in my account and an open bid for it so the broker had somehow placed the trade into my account with out my knowledge or consent. They could not explain why they had placed the funds into my account or subsequently when speaking to her placed the trade in my account a day later.

        So, this is not a perfect world and you need to record any conversations you have with them as they will not share it at a later date with you. As you know it is only for quality control purposes.

        I took the time to post this as an education for all including myself. Beware of your broker as he thinks only of himself and it is his profession.

  32. for Bio.. this will have a major impact over time, as... [#105138]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    for Bio.. this will have a major impact over time, as evidenced today> http://beta.fool.com/sunnyspot/2012/01/30/alnylam-

  33. Goodness did anybody watch the Feb calls today? Some were... [#105141]
    By: speculation101 (21 comments) Go to top ↑

    Goodness did anybody watch the Feb calls today? Some were up 700% midday and down 40% by the end of the day. It was like a pump and dump. The only rumor I heard was that the Nasdaq would rebalance to reduce AAPL’s percentage but that shouldn’t have caused this kind of reversal I wouldn’t think.

    Also currently S/P futures down 12 points. Greece again? *sigh*

  34. Moody's warns may downgrade 17 global banks, securities... [#105142]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Moody’s warns may downgrade 17 global banks, securities firms
    http://reut.rs/yapUwM

    (Reuters) – Moody’s warned on Thursday it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions in another sign that the impact of the euro zone government debt crisis is spreading throughout the global financial system.

  35. For folks who are relatively uncritical cheerleaders of the... [#105144]
    By: dnfrm (88 comments) Go to top ↑

    For folks who are relatively uncritical cheerleaders of the ” social media “, I commend the recently published treatise by Evgeny Morozov entitled ” THE NET DELUSION “. I decline to summarize the content aside from noting that it is succinctly defined by the subtitle: ” The Dark Side of Internet Freedom “. Moreover, excellent reviews are accessible by googling, etc. the author, book name, etc.. Caution… do not expect to read/absorb this tome while overnite soaking in the tub!

    • dnfrm, Thank you just the kind of book I was looking for... [#105145]
      By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑

      dnfrm,
      Thank you just the kind of book I was looking for. The subject matter is so multifaceted that it compels you to look at it from many points of view before you can begin to grasp the degree of its significance.

  36. It never ceases to amaze me that these huge moves take... [#105146]
    By: speculation101 (21 comments) Go to top ↑

    It never ceases to amaze me that these huge moves take place after hours. My optionsxpress account only allows me to trade stocks until 8 p.m. and not again until 7 a.m. the next morning. If the futures continue to slide (S/P down 13 now) we could see a bloodbath or even a flash crash tomorrow. Doubt the latter but anything is possible.

    • An outside day for AAPL. This creeping momentum market is... [#105151]
      By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

      An outside day for AAPL. This creeping momentum market is quite stretched and needs to exhale in the opinion of several of the owl entrail readers that I respect.

      Jeff Saut, Marc Faber, Jason Goepfert and others would not be suprised to see a correction of 5 to 8% or possibly more over the next 2 to 4 weeks. No biggie in the grand scheme of things. If true, it will look like a hiccup on a three year convoluted squiggly candle chart thingie.

      I’m not a chartest, only an emotionalist and the emotion near term seems overly frothy. Showing my age, I can only observe that the ‘tape’ feels a bit heavy. But betting heavily against Mr. Market during an election year has cleaned the clocks of a whole generation of long broke/dead novice short sellers.

      • RE: "But betting heavily against Mr. Market during an... [#105152]
        By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

        RE: “But betting heavily against Mr. Market during an election year has cleaned the clocks of a whole generation of long broke/dead novice short sellers.”

        You are generally correct, except for the fact that the last election year was 2008. The same way USA was blowing up in 2008, 2012 may go to the history as Europe blowup.

        But, I do intend to buy miners on a dip.

        • Jack, I love the reasoning of your posts over the past... [#105155]
          By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

          Jack, I love the reasoning of your posts over the past several weeks. I really do not disagree. IF…everyone used a TRUE CPI number, we are still in recession or worse.

          I guess my point was that liers…figure. It is an election year and the FED, Obama and his appointed government minions will move heaven and earth to paint a smiley face on a desicated portrait of our Dorian Gray economy. One can almost smell the rotting flesh.

          In my mind, 08 was an anomaly. Europe has embarked on QE quantum to the nth squared and another tranche of mister feelgood liquidity is due at the end of this month. Agreed that no problems have been yet addressed but that the serial can kickers have but postponed the end game for a year or so. Who knows for sure?

          “Timing isn’t everything. It’s the only thing.” I learned this lesson early and with much humility.

    • Do we know what tripped AAPL? It was going parabolic all... [#105154]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      Do we know what tripped AAPL? It was going parabolic all right. Still falling after hours.

  37. Canadian Trader: Well, frankly, I'm somewhat hesitant to... [#105149]
    By: dnfrm (88 comments) Go to top ↑

    Canadian Trader: Well, frankly, I’m somewhat hesitant to carry on this issue but I figure that at my old age why not add a bit. First, I assume that your post #105034… re NYU’s, was intended to state that your reading for the past 18 months has been of this blog… and not specifically of NYU’s posts?
    Assuming that is so, then I must admit that, whatever your intention, I anticipated that your generalized critique would generate the kind of replies which resulted. I suspect ( and… no… do not have any evidentiary/statistical support ) that other folks traversing this otherwise very excellent blog share your sentiments but are reluctant to so express. I could say more about the concept of ” contributions ” on this blog but defer for risk of being skewered. Anyhow… my advice… view this blog like a mailbox… a lot of junk-mail which goes in the garbage but occasionally some investing gems/advice which are indeed fruitful. Keep your chin up young person!

    • You know, I thought it was strange that traders get... [#105150]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      You know, I thought it was strange that traders get chastised for posting their trades and rationale for making them on trading blog. Little did I know, it get stranger yet: their posts are called “contributions” (where quotes imply the unworthiness, one has to presume), assumption is made that there are other folks wishing those posts to go away, and they (trading posts) are likened to a junk-mail.

      Now did I see everything? Or more to come?

      • Vad: Whoa!! My gosh! How in the world could you interpret... [#105153]
        By: dnfrm (88 comments) Go to top ↑

        Vad: Whoa!! My gosh! How in the world could you interpret my post as a knock on you? I have never, ever expressed any criticism of your excellent and educational renderings on this blog. I absolutely respect your contributions. However… and quite frankly… I am indeed totally puzzled by your post??

        • No more than I am puzzled by your endorsement of the... [#105159]
          By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

          No more than I am puzzled by your endorsement of the original post that caused all this hoopla…

  38. Well, the rally up to this point still has not been able to... [#105156]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Well, the rally up to this point still has not been able to reverse the bearish cross that occurred late 2011. this is the beauty of this longer term indicator. it can’t serve any purpose intraday, but gives someone a head up on big trend changes possibly occurring. Now with time and price, who knows, maybe Ben Bernanke can move mountains.

    SPX http://bit.ly/zilgcT
    COMPQ http://bit.ly/ztmbNb
    Russell http://bit.ly/A00wvg

  39. (Reuters) - Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been in... [#105157]
    By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑

    (Reuters) – Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been in discussions with the White House about leaving her job next year to become head of the World Bank, sources familiar with the discussions said on Thursday.

    The former first lady and onetime political rival to President Barack Obama quickly became one of the most influential members of his Cabinet after she began her tenure at State in early 2009.

    She has said publicly she did not plan to stay on at the State Department for more than four years. . . .

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/09/us-obama

    Is this good or bad for the dollar I wonder.

    • I didn't know she knew economics, but I do remember she had... [#105158]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      I didn’t know she knew economics, but I do remember she had a history of incredibly lucky trading bets ;-)

      I guess you can say the same about most politicians.