Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 14, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[8:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Yesterday, stocks rallied on a Greek agreement that puts them a step closer to getting the funds they need to cut off the oncoming default.

After the close, Moody’s downgraded the sovereign debt ratings of the following EU countries: Austria, France, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and the United Kingdom. The reason stated was “to reflect their susceptibility to the growing financial and macroeconomic risks emanating from the euro area crisis…” Basically, too many things can go wrong for Moody’s not to downgrade. The euro and stock futures both got hit on the news but have since recovered.

This morning, traders are waiting on Retail Sales to see if consumer spending is indeed picking up. Business Inventories will also be released. Inventories tend to rise when the economy is strong. These two numbers may be market movers today if Europe doesn’t overshadow them (which is probably will).

I mentioned AAPL yesterday. It did breach $500 and we did sell a portion of our holdings in the stock as it goes full exponential. You can’t go broke taking gains, can you? FD; long AAPL.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,201.79 6:44AM EST Down 4.59 (0.21%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,257.16 6:59AM EST Down 0.94 (0.04%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,396.51 6:59AM EST Up 11.96 (0.35%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,768.71 6:44AM EST Up 30.24 (0.45%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 324.09 6:44AM EST Up 1.48 (0.46%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 472.95 6:44AM EST Up 0.68 (0.14%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 338.44 6:44AM EST Up 1.50 (0.45%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,181.67 6:44AM EST Up 4.23 (0.07%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,912.40 6:44AM EST Up 6.70 (0.11%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,008.10 6:59AM EST Down 2.30 (0.23%) Chart, More
ESI500000000.MA IGBM 885.27 Feb 10 Down 11.06 (1.23%) Components, Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,570.93 7:59AM EST Up 9.48 (0.61%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 821.91 6:44AM EST Down 12.50 (1.50%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


Jeff Borsato’s Hidden Truth

It’s simple today gang:

Pull up a 1 year chart of the GLD with 14 and 7 RSI series.
Notice how both are ready to curl upwards.

If this week’s action follows through from where we sit right now ($1724 or so), the technical picture will look very good for gold bullion.

If this action takes place during continued strength in the USD, it will be an even stronger signal in my mind that we are ready to launch for the POG.

The USD appears strong, especially with daily reports of weakness in Europe. This won’t stop gold’s climb long-term but it will certainly put up a fight going forward.

I haven’t found gold reacting well to market weakness the past few years and would not expect new highs in gold while the market is crashing, the move to the USD is alive and well amidst the EU crisis.

Good luck,

and hope to see you all at the PDAC!

Jeff Borsato
jeffborsato@caratrading.com


  1. 7:30 AM ET NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 7:45 AM ET... [#105002]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 7:30 AM ET NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
    • 7:45 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
    • 8:30 AM ET Retail Sales
    • 8:30 AM ET Import and Export Prices
    • 8:55 AM ET Redbook
    • 9:00 AM ET Ceridian-UCLA PCI
    • 10:00 AM ET Business Inventories
    • 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction
  2. ... [#105003]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑
  3. 7 in Distribution Zone 4 in Sell alert Accumulation... [#105004]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 7 in Distribution Zone
    • 4 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 5, Weekly 1, Daily 4
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 14, Weekly 28, Daily 20

  4. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) UK for January Actual: 3.6%... [#105005]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) UK for January
    Actual: 3.6% Cons.: 3.6% Previous: 4.2%

    DCLG HOUSE PRICE INDEX (YOY) UK for December
    Actual: 0.1% Cons.: -0.1% Previous: -0.3%

    RETAIL PRICE INDEX (MOM) UK for January
    Actual: -0.6% Cons.: -0.4% Previous: 0.4%

    CB LEADING INDICATOR INDEX UK for January
    Actual: -0.5% Cons.: Previous: -0.6%

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  5. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION W.D.A. (YOY) EMU for... [#105006]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION W.D.A. (YOY) EMU for December
    Actual: -2.0% Cons.: -1.0% Previous: 0.1% Revised from 0.1%

    INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION S.A. (MOM) EMU for December
    Actual: -1.1% Cons.: -1.2% Previous: 0.0% Revised from -0.1%

    ZEW SURVEY – ECONOMIC SENTIMENT Germany for February
    Actual: 5.4 Cons.: -15.0 Previous: -21.6

    *Note the graphically attached sentiment graph. What does it suggest?

    ZEW SURVEY – ECONOMIC SENTIMENT EMU for February
    Actual: -8.1 Cons.: -21.1 Previous: -32.5

    ZEW SURVEY – CURRENT SITUATION Germany for February
    Actual: 40.3 Cons.: 30.5 Previous: 28.4

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  6. Good morning. 08:30 Retail Sales 08:30 Import/Export... [#105007]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    08:30 Retail Sales
    08:30 Import/Export Prices
    10:00 Business Inventories

    ——

    BBBY – Bed Bath & Beyond downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup citing valuation and increased competition from online retailers. The firm lowered its price target for shares to $65 from $71.

    TRP – TransCanada initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank. Target $43

    ——

    “The only difference between a tax man and a taxidermist is that the taxidermist leaves the skin.” ~ Mark Twain

  7. US Advance Retail Sales (Jan) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev... [#105008]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    US Advance Retail Sales (Jan) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.1%)

    Obama to give remarks on payroll tax cuts at 1040 EST

    • I'm still surprised by the increase given the unprecedented... [#105010]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      I’m still surprised by the increase given the unprecedented fall in fuel use in USA in January.
      Are these numbers adjusted for inflation? If not, gas price increase alone could probably account for the numbers.
      Regardless, the equities didn’t like the numbers and are falling so far.

      No, it’s not inflation adjusted: http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_curre

      EDIT: government lies hard at work. See table 1 in the link to the source of the data.

      Compare the unadjusted data in January 2012 (361,351 mil) to December 2011 (459,829 mil), a whooping loss of ~20% to the “adjusted numbers” giving the advertised 0.4%

      The YoY increase of 5% is probably not even covering the real inflation in 2011.

      EDIT2: yap on the inflation part.

      “Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose 0.3 percent in January, reflecting higher costs for automobiles and petroleum, a report from Labor Department also showed today. It was the second increase in the past six months, indicating little pressure in prices from overseas.”

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/retail-sa

      • Unadjusted retail figures are similar to the reporting of... [#105031]
        By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

        Unadjusted retail figures are similar to the reporting of the GNP number. If a proper inflation number were used to calculate the statistic, the GNP would be reading a negative number. Positive reported GNP growth of 2.0-2.5% is more like -2.5 to -1.5% negative growth.

        As you said JB, we’re presented with lots of conflicted information. It is stressful in trying to ascertain the truth. It seems stress is on the increase throughout most of the western economies. Imagine the stress level in Japan where you are wondering if each bite of food is poisoned. Millions of youth without jobs or direction. Rapidly falling standards of living. That’s a whole lotta stress which can turn to fear and create more social disfunction… a destructive spiral.

  8. BNS - Bank of Nova Scotia upgraded to Action List Buy from... [#105011]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    BNS – Bank of Nova Scotia upgraded to Action List Buy from Buy at TD Securities.

    GOOG – Gets assigned a Buy at Capstone.

  9. The declining fuel use numbers throw a monkey wrench in the... [#105012]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    The declining fuel use numbers throw a monkey wrench in the rosy official economic numbers. This article discusses the issue and tries to resolve it: http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=18946

  10. Curious that SVM has 5.1 days to cover, as does MUX... [#105013]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    Curious that SVM has 5.1 days to cover, as does MUX, while
    CDE 2.8,
    PAAS 1.6,
    SLW 1
    SLV .9

  11. and bonds and dollar are strong. but, it's still early in... [#105014]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    and bonds and dollar are strong. but, it’s still early in the day.

  12. Record High In Bullish... [#105015]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    Record High In Bullish Sentiment

    http://sentimentrader.com/blog/archives/135

  13. The Financial Times headline reads: "Investors cautious... [#105016]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    The Financial Times headline reads: “Investors cautious after barrage of conflicting catalysts”.

    I am very concerned that the powers-that-be seem to be in full-out war and that traders are being bombarded with cross messages. We get rating agencies now warning us about the UK, France, and you name it. We get the IMF muscling in. The new Financial Stability Board is at odds with Volcker. Central banks are either trying to weaken or strengthen the Dollar, Euro, Yen or whatever the case may be. The US Congress is voting on money issues along strictly partisan lines. We have the most extreme minority groups weighing in heavily in the US Republican Party presidential campaign. Every big name current or former (including distant) politician, civil servant, economist/academian, corporate CEO, newsletter writer, and so on, is actively grinding their ax. Financial Entertainment TV now represents their on-screen personalities as market experts — one of them even went so far as saying “In my personal portfolio, I …”. I could go on. The point is that if you are going to listen to everybody, you won’t hear anything. You need a disciplined investment strategy and a trading plan that requires focus. Without it, you will find yourself stressed out very quickly.

    • Bill, it makes ones head spin. I turned off CNBC, then... [#105020]
      By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill, it makes ones head spin. I turned off CNBC, then Bloomberg many years ago… cannot watch any of them and have them fill my head with, well…
      “what a bunch of clowns” is my kindest statement, especially CNBC.

    • Tell me about it! There is a lot of conflicting info out... [#105023]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      Tell me about it!

      There is a lot of conflicting info out there. Good example is on the health of global trade. How can you reconciliate one headline “Transport Survey Reveals Shipping Experiencing Largest Decrease in Business Volumes” with another one “Container Rates Rising 28% as Cargo to U.S. Rebounds From Decline: Freight”

      BTW, these are real recent headlines from: http://marineinsight.com/news/shipping/transport-s
      and: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/container

      There are many other examples I’m grappling with such as diesel/gasoline use going down, yet rail volume going up. etc, etc.

  14. First, I don't trade coffee futures, and other than a... [#105018]
    By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

    First, I don’t trade coffee futures, and other than a Dunkin Donuts card I don’t have a long position!

    Coffee in stores (6$/pound at BJ’s this weekend) keeps rising and coffee futures keep falling. The usual seasonal rise in coffee futures never happened.

    Any coffee experts out there?

  15. Just booked my short profits. 55 pips on British pound... [#105019]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Just booked my short profits. 55 pips on British pound. entered short 1.5733. Booked at 1.5678

    Let’s see if any other setups arise today.

    • Two and done. Just booked second short of British... [#105032]
      By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

      Two and done.

      Just booked second short of British pound.

      Entry: 1.5682
      Exit: 1.5662

      75 pips for the day.

      Summary: Glad i was out of equities as they chopped around. Breadth opened very weak and the low print was at 10:16ET, it clawed back as usual threatening a bottom print. But then sold off again. this was not typical of what has been the norm; 10:30am bottom is in.

      Quite honestly, there hasnt been too much damage done to the rally, so the upside must be respected. But i would def recommend having a very tight leash on longs.

      unless i see a dream setup i dont plan to hold anything into the close. time to relax and get ready for the Knicks game tonight and #Linsanity!

      Here is a quick wrap up to the week Jeremy Lin, a undrafted, harvard graduate, Asian American athlete, has taken over NYC and the basketball world.

      http://on.nba.com/AfpipB

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BYePYQDrtc

      Failure is a choice. Decide to win

      • Last note on Jeremy Lin. If you watch his post game... [#105033]
        By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

        Last note on Jeremy Lin. If you watch his post game interview after scoring 38 points last week, you will see how a leader should be! not like Obama who takes all the credit for success and blames others for failures.

        Lin pushes as much of the spot light to his team mates as possible.

        http://bit.ly/A9TMl0

      • ... [#105034]
        By: CanadianTrader (5 comments) Go to top ↑
        • ??? 18 months? I am not gonna drag this out. Just ignore... [#105036]
          By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

          ??? 18 months?

          I am not gonna drag this out. Just ignore my comments as i don’t mean to offend your experience in anyway.

          • NYUGrad, I enjoy reading your posts. Thanks... [#105041]
            By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑

            NYUGrad,
            I enjoy reading your posts.
            Thanks, Cheers

          • Thanks! I appreciate the kind words. but i have thick... [#105042]
            By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

            Thanks! I appreciate the kind words. but i have thick skin.

          • NYUGrad, If a secondary view is not offered the first view... [#105043]
            By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑

            NYUGrad,
            If a secondary view is not offered the first view gets the last word.
            Cheers

          • Right now, I just roll by your comments NYU, because you're... [#105055]
            By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

            Right now, I just roll by your comments NYU, because you’re trading different vehicles in a different time frame, but what I like more than anything here is people putting down their trades in real time, there for me to study if I want. Maybe some day I’ll want to focus where you do.

          • Canadian Trader, you have a ignore user button. Use it if... [#105077]
            By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

            Canadian Trader, you have a ignore user button. Use it if unsatisfied with said user.

            I for one am interested in seeing what you are seeing NYUGrad, in the world of currencies you’re trading. GBP, is it in trend or range bound like equities? What made you go for it?

            Been back with Vad for a week and getting tossed around by a jerky market and still applying rigour to the trading strategy learnt from Vad.

            Been using the MACD setups that worked for me in swing trading SLW during 2011 and applying them to Vad’s strategy in order to filter out setups that work for me. The last week is proving to be a good wake up call to be light on my feet here, especially as the market works out which way it is going.

            A useful little tool was given to me by Nemo yesterday, a freestockcharts.com live link to SPY with multiple S/R zones marked in, to which I added my 8,13,8 MACD indicator to.

            So in the opening minutes I can see a negative MACD crossover threatening, I put a target of 134.50 to it and then use that as a compass point for the day, ready to change my tune if the market does. At 3pm I note the MACD flattening out as support begins to be sought out. This suggests to me that this will not be the decisive sell off that I favour, so I call it quits and get some sleep.

            You can see the SPY screenshot from yesterday’s close, along with a CAT short setup that encompasses the sort of filtered setup that I just remarked upon and seek out, here:

            http://catchofthedayarchive.blogspot.com/

            I’d like to get Nemo’s live links to SPY, IWM and the Q’s heading into each session, but it is proving to be a pain in the butt to successfully save them. I will keep trying, but in the meantime I can provide the SPY live link on a daily basis:

            http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=dbd8d7

            You need to download Microsoft Silverlight in order to be able to access freestockcharts.com

          • Hi Les, You are in good hands with Vad and Nemo. Here is... [#105081]
            By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

            Hi Les,

            You are in good hands with Vad and Nemo.

            Here is my chart i linked here earlier in the evening on my long entry. http://i39.tinypic.com/2b41e1.png

            I am already out of that. And reversed to go short not much after i exited long.

            In the am I was short the British pound after i saw the setups i take.

            As for what I am seeing in general is that the Aussie, GBP are trading much smoother than Euro. What i mean is they dont spend a lot of time chopping around consolidating. Once the move gets going, there is some steam there. Euro does too but sometimes it can be a roller coaster ride.

            As for my system, its fairly simple, but i have worked hard to develop so i wont go into a lecture here. But the basic premise is to spot areas of agreement between buyers/sellers, as well as unfair areas. And i trade around the edges. I focus my eyes on the 5min, 30 min, and 120m time views.

            Happy Hunting

        • ... [#105039]
          By: Athan (143 comments) Go to top ↑
        • Just keep reading, but don't bother to post... [#105052]
          By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

          Just keep reading, but don’t bother to post, please.

        • OK, as someone regularly posting market wrap-ups and trades... [#105067]
          By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

          OK, as someone regularly posting market wrap-ups and trades I must ask… may I continue?

  16. In my opinion, the best 5 minutes on tv made available on... [#105021]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

    In my opinion, the best 5 minutes on tv made available on Youtube.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOaCemmsnNk

    Thomas Jefferson said, “All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent”.

    … and then there are those who are not afraid to speak, and get fired.

    • ... [#105028]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
      • Grym, Would love to see the Judge run! now that would be... [#105040]
        By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

        Grym,

        Would love to see the Judge run! now that would be extraordinary…
        … that is if they would count the votes. Just read that Ron Paul actually won in Maine, but MSM claimed it was Romney… becoming more and more difficult to digest this stuff.)

        • "... becoming more and more difficult to digest this... [#105059]
          By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

          “… becoming more and more difficult to digest this stuff.)”

          Yes! Everything the judge said I gradually have come to believe over the last 25 to 30 years.

          This time the electioneering marathon has left me cynical, rather than skeptical

          Grym

    • tradylady, Thanks for posting that link. So rare to find... [#105045]
      By: weekender823 (27 comments) Go to top ↑

      tradylady,

      Thanks for posting that link. So rare to find stand up people in the media or politics today. I consider myself a moderate, and I have some serious differences with Ron Paul. But then again, I can’t even stand to look at Obamney – either one of them!

      • weekender823, with you on all... [#105047]
        By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

        weekender823,

        with you on all counts.

      • weekender, "I can't even stand to look at Obamney - either... [#105060]
        By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

        weekender,

        “I can’t even stand to look at Obamney – either one of them!”

        Now we have three as Bull Hunter illustrated this AM…

        ‘A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says,”Hello, Mitt”.’

        So true and good for an all day chuckle.

        Grym ;-)

  17. ... [#105022]
    By: normxyz (162 comments) Go to top ↑
  18. ... [#105024]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomtaulli/2012/02/14/c

    Gimme a break. I thought everyone needing iphone/ipad got one already? I’m not an iperson myself.

  19. ... [#105025]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://marketmontage.com/2012/02/12/apple-aapl-and

    Isn’t that interesting?

    Someone actually mentioned the AAPL story here before IIRC.

  20. Charts... [#105026]
    By: ballena (529 comments) Go to top ↑

    Charts attached

  21. As you know, personal safety prompted my decision to move... [#105027]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    As you know, personal safety prompted my decision to move to the US/Canada.

    This week the news from the Caribbean is that US Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer was robbed last week by an intruder armed with a machete while Breyer was vacationing on the Caribbean island of Nevis.

    The problem is getting worse and you need to be aware of it if you plan to live/vacation there.

    • Bill, Nevis? I have spent many years in the Carib. Islands... [#105038]
      By: Zed II (163 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill, Nevis? I have spent many years in the Carib. Islands and always considered Nevis/ St. Kitts the most laid back people in the world.

      The Bahamas: they’ve had their ups and downs crime wise in my 37 years as a frequent traveller.

      The out islands more peaceful than the “big cities” ( Nassau, Freeport) by a huge margin. As you know. I still love ‘em.

      I guess one can take nothing for granted.

      Anywhere.

      Too bad.

      Ciao, Z.

  22. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar... [#105029]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says,”Hello, Mitt”.

    • BH, Could just as easily have used, "Hello Barack". All... [#105030]
      By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

      BH,

      Could just as easily have used, “Hello Barack”.

      All of them will say whatever it takes to get elected.

  23. inflows into Gold ETF surge in January.... as usual, gold... [#105035]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    inflows into Gold ETF surge in January…. as usual, gold stocks go down.

  24. I mentioned a few min ago the benefit of the doubt has to... [#105037]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    I mentioned a few min ago the benefit of the doubt has to go to upside. and into the close we see the magic wand of money printing.

    Dow goes from -70ish to positive in minutes.

    • On days like this I like to believe in the plunge... [#105053]
      By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

      On days like this I like to believe in the plunge protection team. However, I think the truth is simpler, short covering by daytraders and delayed buy on dip by institutions. The dollar, bonds, and vix showed the true direction today and closed higher.

  25. ... [#105044]
    By: weekender823 (27 comments) Go to top ↑
  26. ... [#105049]
    By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑
  27. As some of you may know I'm fairly new here, with a couple... [#105051]
    By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

    As some of you may know I’m fairly new here, with a couple of posts discussing the gold miners and explorers.

    I recently started a blog focused on junior gold miners and wrote up a page “Why Gold” to pin myself down to think about some of the reasons I am trying to ride the gold bull and remind myself what I need to do to recognise when we see over-valuation, this page is:

    http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.com
    Page Why-Gold

    For some of you this will strike me out as a tin foil hat gold-bug but I realised one of the key influences on my thinking has been Jim Sinclair.
    When I first started reading him in 2006/7 and was new to exploring the subjects which developed into the financial crisis and monetary change I found his tone very insistent and “shrill” and was rather sceptical of his bold statements and in truth a little dismissive.

    As time has gone by more and more of what he has written and offered freely with enormous energy to his readers at JS Mineset seems to me to have shown enormous insight and foresight. Jim, along with Bill here, has been a clear voice above the noise which Bill describes in his post today; when push comes to shove central banks will print, it comes in waves, it’s disguised, it’s renamed but printing it is. Is this a consensus view? In informed circles perhaps. The general investor let alone the population at large does not recognise the erosion of capital by devaluation and negative real yields. If they can push up house prices and the Dow by 10% who will know where it came from, who will see devaluation if currencies fall together? What will they fall against? I can only believe against gold, as Bernanke saw in the depression revaluation.

    Sinclair stopped giving short or intermediate “trading” signals so I guess many traders here could well dismiss him as a “permabull” and certainly “being early” in 2011 was being wrong in the miners.

    Over the past couple of days he has written 3 articles which revisit the key themes I had hunted around the web to recall and link on my blog.

    http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/02/14/gold-heading-b

    I like the word serendipity.

    His recent articles re-explore his views of the re-introduction of gold as a reference point in the monetary system, not a gold standard.

    His most recent article today also makes explicit his rejection of trading gold through leveraged Comex contracts as he did with legendary success in the 70′s bull.
    This time he is looking to obtain maximum leverage through the gold miners.

    He sees these as “utilities of the future”.
    I assume it is in his nature to trade them, but he makes no statement in this regard and given ownership in TNX/TRE he may not easily trade?

    For many years he loudly declared $1,650 gold by Janaury 2011.
    He was very close.
    Now he points loudly to Alf Field’s “wave 3 of 3″ to $4,500 and possibly up to $12,000.

    I wasn’t there at the beginning but I want to see the finish.

    This is why I see enormous value in the junior companies like Lakeshore Gold discussed by Athan yesterday and McEwen Mining referenced by Les and many others here.
    Equally there are serious companies led by good management trading for less than $50m with great potential to discover gold in the ground.
    There are large deposits of low grade gold for <$200m to be dramatically revalued. There will be growth consolidators who will be the Goldcorps of the future.

    I think we will look back in a few years and recognise the value we could have had now in the miners and explorers after 2011 scared so many away. Every bone and sinew screamed sell.
    We may well be due a futher leg down as in 2008, but the reversal in 2009 was fast.
    How many are sat waiting for $1400 on a 5th wave down now?

    What do members think of Sinclair?
    Are you riding or trading the gold bull?
    How are you going to ride? Comex or miners?
    With the ETF crowd or with Cara and Sinclair in the junior miners?
    Which miners and explorers will maximise leverage to the gold price?

  28. sorry double... [#105050]
    By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

    sorry double posted

  29. time go long again? Just thinking out loud. I will wait a... [#105054]
    By: jack black (2306 comments) Go to top ↑

    time go long again? Just thinking out loud. I will wait a bit longer as my trades tend to be 1-2 week too early on average.

    • Jack, My timing is also usually late - in & out. Of... [#105057]
      By: weekender823 (27 comments) Go to top ↑

      Jack,

      My timing is also usually late – in & out. Of the four miners I watch most – SLW, EXK, MUX, & SVM, only SLW is not approaching the bottom limit of 20,2 Bollinger Bands. If that indicator holds, a couple more weeks should be just right by my guess.

      Good Luck

  30. Questrade took my UXG.TO and rolled them into MUX (NYSE... [#105056]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Questrade took my UXG.TO and rolled them into MUX (NYSE). I”m having them correct, but heads up.

  31. Armstrong says the model, you know, THE MODEL, is... [#105058]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    Armstrong says the model, you know, THE MODEL, is confirming the shift to a transparant exchange for commodities. Maybe that’s the reason for a drop in M2 velocity.

    Short and compelling commentary on the broader dynamic of these confusing market cross currents:

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Singapore/ind

    CME = Higher Betas Ahead, me mateys!

    • Martin's in great form. His movie trailer rocks. The... [#105071]
      By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

      Martin’s in great form. His movie trailer rocks. The MFGlobal deal might be the catalyst to move the center of the trading world to Asia afterall. It’s all about fairness & trust, or lack thereof.

  32. Hi All - Nice run up in the oily part of the litter today... [#105061]
    By: Luggie (639 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi All – Nice run up in the oily part of the litter today with Kodiak, Magnum Hunter, Triangle, Northern Oil & Penn West moving ahead on a so so day. Petro Bakken is on the sidelines as recent gains are not touted by the powers that be. Junior Gold’s site is a wealth of timely information. Happy Trading

  33. " There was an interesting development in the FX market, in... [#105062]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    ” There was an interesting development in the FX market, in that the yen seems to be finally cracking. Many people have been waiting for the Japanese bond market to have problems. Will have to wait and see “.. from Fleck today.

  34. Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, said today he... [#105063]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, said today he see’s reaching his inflation goal of 2012 with ” downside risk “. In other words, even though inflation is running Above his target of 2 %, he is pretty sure it will collapse to a lower level, although he will make sure it doesn’t get too far below where he wants it. That’s how delusional these monetary madmen are: even when inflation, ( which is understated with bogus stats. ), is higher than expected, they tell us its going to collapse, therey giving them room to print more money. History is going to look back on this period and ask, what were the citizens of these countries thinking as they allowed these lunatics to do what they did…… Thanks Fleck…

  35. should be interesting, although I'm not waiting too long to... [#105064]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    should be interesting, although I’m not waiting too long to add > http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/peru-hire

  36. Jeremy Lin just hit the game winning shot. Wow Here is the... [#105065]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Jeremy Lin just hit the game winning shot. Wow
    Here is the video:

    http://deadsp.in/A82cKC

    • Linsanity - his play over the last 5 games is incredible... [#105069]
      By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

      Linsanity – his play over the last 5 games is incredible. He’s good for the NBA, good for NYC and good for believing in yourself, working hard and thinking positive. His is a great story.

      Giants who?

    • His interview right after the... [#105070]
      By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

      His interview right after the game.

      http://bit.ly/xK1hDy

      • I have a feeling the Linsanity will last through... [#105072]
        By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

        I have a feeling the Linsanity will last through June.

        • And here he is at the press conference. THese things have... [#105073]
          By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

          And here he is at the press conference. THese things have balooned in 1 week to an allstar type level production. With room needed for an extra 100 media passes for intl reporters. However, despite all this hype, he is humble as anyone I have seen. NYC, Knicks, Basketball, anyone who is an underdog, finds Linsanity, perfect timing.

          http://bit.ly/z4Yj8q

        • Ya know, i have been saving all these interviews and... [#105074]
          By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

          Ya know, i have been saving all these interviews and highlights onto my google documents account. I dont have a son now, but with blessings i will in the near future i presume. And whatever my kids decide to invest their hard work and time with, i will use this as one of many examples i have been saving, to share with them. To never give up toward reaching their goals and dreams.

          Jeremy Lin is doing something that is so improbable as an Asian American it blows my mind. Not only are their subtle exterior obstacles in the world, but he had to overcome the Tiger Mom. Meaning the Asian parents who typically frown upon low success rate endeavors such as professional sports.

          I have Linsanity fever

          EDIT: And i am not trying to be racist. I am an Asian so I feel i can make a general statement about the Tiger Mom, which is no myth :)

  37. (CN) According to HSBC, China home prices may fall by as... [#105066]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

    (CN) According to HSBC, China home prices may fall by as much as 20% in H1 – SCMP

    - Says: “This is because I can’t see any turnaround in administration policies in the foreseeable future. At least not this year.”
    - Credit Suisse offering similar view, noting prices could be 20% below last year’s peak by end of 2012.
    - Property brokerage DTZ analyst: “With a net surplus of supply of nearly 1.26 billion square metres … it is clear mainland developers face strong repricing pressure to get their stock sold.”

  38. Long pound. seeing if this inverse h&s works out. I... [#105068]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Long pound. seeing if this inverse h&s works out. I entered on the breakout of the neckline.
    http://bit.ly/ytzzbI

    • Booked my long trade on British pound. i should be looking... [#105076]
      By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

      Booked my long trade on British pound. i should be looking for my setup to reverse the position, but time for bed

      • Had a setup so took the reverse trade once i booked my... [#105080]
        By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

        Had a setup so took the reverse trade once i booked my profit long. Short Brit pound once again. 1.5720 entry

        Now i can maybe get some sleep for 2-3 hours.

  39. NYT reports that in China, even counterfit jersey's are... [#105075]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    NYT reports that in China, even counterfit jersey’s are sold out. they cannot keep up with demand. This kid is going to make more money than any NBA player if he can keep this up. and you know the league, product merchandise co’s, fast food co’s, who want to use him to sell stuff in Asia, are hoping and planning on his continued success.

    http://nyti.ms/yE33k6

  40. This Greece circus begins to be filtered out in my mind ... [#105078]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    This Greece circus begins to be filtered out in my mind – 20 acts of farce is enough for anyone, so I wait for the curtain to fall without being too engaged as to where we are.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis

    From what I can read of Ambrose EP is that all figures being placed on present economic, fiscal and monetary predictions, regardless of which country we’re talking about, appear to be too optimistic. Greece is clearly being sucked into a deflationary vortex that it can no longer pull itself out of, so I await the market reaction to the headline of a Greece default on its payment to creditors.

    Question will then be whether extend and pretend remains the political ordre du jour for the other struggling economies. To offset that the ECB is gonna have to release an awesome amount of liquidity – a lot of which is likely to be released with the next LOTR funding of Euro banks due Feb 29. Could be a doozy of a sum of money…

  41. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT S.A (QOQ) Actual: -0.2% Cons.:... [#105079]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT S.A (QOQ)
    Actual: -0.2% Cons.: -0.3% Previous: 0.6% Revised from 0.5%

    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT N.S.A (YOY)
    Actual: 1.5% Cons.: 1.9% Previous: 2.6% Revised from 2.5%

    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT W.D.A (YOY)
    Actual: 1.5% Cons.: 2.0% Previous: 2.6%

    http://www.fx360.com/calendar/

  42. EUFN:IVV is of particular interest. Europe financials/SP500... [#105082]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    EUFN:IVV is of particular interest. Europe financials/SP500 paired. Pulling back with negative MACD crossover in the daily.

    CEW – Emerging currencies pulling back with MACD negative crossover in the daily.

    $CPCE – options activity remains relative complacent.

    Given the advance of the dollar and the indexes refusal to pull back in any meaningful way, I am watching for a breakout or continuing to find short setups intraday and keeping wary of the closing bounce/short covering.

    Greece to be greased? That is the question.