Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 1, 2013

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Stock futures have added to their overnight gains following the Unemployment data which showed a gain of 157,000, which was in line with expectations, and a slight rise of unemployment to 7.9%. Revisions were positive for 2012.

Every so often, I see some data that I feel you absolutely have to see and this morning is one of those days.

NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment (chart courtesy of sentimentrader.com):

ggimage01_020113.png

Yes, you read that correctly – in aggregate, managers are net LEVERAGED long which is something that has never happened before in this survey.

This is due to managers who are chasing returns by jumping on the stock bandwagon and its starting to feel crowded. This is a contrarian indicator, meaning that when too many are leaning one way, which they clearly are now, it is time to go the other way. Yes, as I have written before, growing confidence is positive for the market, but when too many are too confident it is time to be looking to pare back risk. We need to keep our eyes peeled for cracks in the pavement.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,435.10 6:44AM EST Down 10.94 (0.45%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,545.90 4:07AM EST Up 15.60 (0.62%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,764.78 7:00AM EST Up 32.18 (0.86%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,799.80 6:44AM EST Up 23.75 (0.31%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 354.60 6:44AM EST Up 0.25 (0.07%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 517.93 6:44AM EST Up 3.24 (0.63%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 365.10 6:58AM EST Down 0.77 (0.21%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 7,393.14 6:27AM EST Up 2.28 (0.03%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 6,306.26 6:44AM EST Up 29.38 (0.47%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,015.82 6:59AM EST Down 5.62 (0.55%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,547.77 8:00AM EST Up 0.59 (0.04%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 995.66 6:27AM EST Up 8.90 (0.90%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

The above commentary is a shortened version of the February 1 issue of our exclusive Wagner Daily swing trade newsletter. To learn how to profitably trade stocks and ETFs, give our end-of-day stock newsletter a 30-day risk-free test drive by checking out this page now.


Point and Figure on Canada


OptionOracle


Harp’s Roadmap


Cara on the Metalminers


Cara on the International Markets


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. [No set time] Motor Vehicle Sales 8:30 AM ET Employment... [#117125]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • [No set time] Motor Vehicle Sales
    • 8:30 AM ET Employment Situation
    • 8:58 AM ET PMI Manufacturing Index
    • 9:55 AM ET Consumer Sentiment
    • 10:00 AM ET ISM Mfg Index
    • 10:00 AM ET Construction Spending
  2. 3 in Buy alert 4 in Distribution Zone 16 in Sell... [#117126]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 3 in Buy alert
    • 4 in Distribution Zone
    • 16 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone (5%): Monthly 4, Weekly 6, Daily 7
    Distribution Zone (22%): Monthly 18, Weekly 32, Daily 18

  3. ... [#117127]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambrose

    Perhaps little coincidence that at the same time the EU plan the introduction of a trading tax and the UK suggest cutting ties to the single market that the EU threaten to shut out London. Our way or the highway. That oughta help deepen investor confusion and anxiety.

    • ... [#117132]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑
      • Gangster " politicians " seem to be still on a upswing... [#117137]
        By: BOB 47 (361 comments) Go to top ↑

        Gangster ” politicians ” seem to be still on a upswing world wide . Washington , Brussels and further east . Like other cycles that one will change and reverse . Some day !

    • Les, Great article. Add the plans by Germany to repatriate... [#117134]
      By: terryC (336 comments) Go to top ↑

      Les,

      Great article. Add the plans by Germany to repatriate their bullion and some scenarios are taking shape. A new Euro which is really a DM in wolf’s clothing? There’s more than one way to take control of a continent than goose-stepping into a nation’s capital. No wonder why the UK is so anxious to get a GS man ( Carney ) at the helm of their treasury. More Euro/USD volatility can be expected in the months ahead.

      • I've got no fixed idea of how this will turn out terry... [#117141]
        By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

        I’ve got no fixed idea of how this will turn out terry, history rhymes but doesn’t necessarily repeat as the saying goes. But I am confident that humans will repeat the same mistakes of the past. I begin to see history as a cyclical one and not the linear process that we are taught.

        In that sense the notion that Germany may extricate itself to create a new, smaller trading bloc with gold backed DM is perhaps welcome as a mechanism to rectify the present structural issues, but given my understanding of strong currency living in Switzerland, is not without its own difficulties. I see this as a less probable scenario.

        I thought the remarks from a Syrian woman of middle class aspirations now living in squalor in Lebanon worthy of note:

        …in the event that readers of her story at some point in their lives have to flee their homeland, she wants them to take to heart her list of what to pack. “Passports, gold, bank records and deeds of property, very important,”

        http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-plig

        Some things we take for granted

  4. Good morning. 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls (157,000) 08:30... [#117128]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls (157,000)
    08:30 Unemployment Rate (7.9%)
    08:30 Hourly Earnings/Average Workweek (+$0.04/34.4)
    09:55 Michigan Sentiment – Final
    10:00 ISM Index
    10:00 Construction Spending
    14:00 Auto/Truck Sales

    ——

    EPD – Enterprise Products downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse due to valuation. Price target raised to $60.50 from $59.

    MA – MasterCard downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo citing valuation and keeps a $500-$520 price target range for shares

    MA – PT Lifted from $490 to $575 @ FBR. Outperform

    ORCL – Oracle upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital.
    Following an investor meeting with Oracle, BMO Capital believes the company’s top-line growth outlook has improved significantly. The firm believes enterprise data software spending is improving and that Exadata sales will not have a positive impact on overall growth. Price target raised to $43 from $36.

    WHR – Whirlpool downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James due to increased raw material inflation, increased investments, and productivity headwinds. Price target is $125.

    ——

    Miners:

    RGLD – PT Lowered from $95 to $92 @ MLV. Buy

    ——

    Watch your thoughts; they become words.
    Watch your words; they become actions.
    Watch your actions; they become habits.
    Watch your habits; they become character.
    Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.

    ~ Lao-Tze

  5. ... [#117130]
    By: Ynot (234 comments) Go to top ↑
  6. ... [#117133]
    By: 14them34me (295 comments) Go to top ↑

    • Not so fast!! Another smack down in progress. Gold down... [#117135]
      By: jragusa (121 comments) Go to top ↑

      Not so fast!! Another smack down in progress. Gold down 1.25% from intra day high. Miners (GDX) down 2% from intra day high. I have 22% of my portfolio in miners+gold and I am getting damn fraustrated with this action. And I am a very patient investor. So I guess the end of the pain must be close…….

  7. MA - PT Lifted from $550 to $608 @ RBC. Outperform NOV ... [#117131]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    MA – PT Lifted from $550 to $608 @ RBC. Outperform

    NOV – Credit Suisse assigns new Neutral on National Oilwell.

    POT – target was lowered at UBS to $48. Offshore weakness continues. Buy rating.

  8. Bottom fishing... [#117136]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑
  9. ...right now. Breaking out of a very large, long term, bal... [#117139]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    …right now. Breaking out of a very large, long term, bal area.

  10. the reversal yest should signal strong near term support... [#117140]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    the reversal yest should signal strong near term support. Watching $29 below, $31.50, $32.50 above. if $33 is overtaken, fireworks will ensue.

  11. A cursory look at the long term charts suggests....how much... [#117142]
    By: tom sheepngoats (40 comments) Go to top ↑

    A cursory look at the long term charts suggests….how much harm could come from nibbling on the AAPL. Started today.

  12. ... [#117143]
    By: Jack Senett (438 comments) Go to top ↑

    Above.

    • I think Vlad said it in mediating a squabble between the... [#117144]
      By: tom sheepngoats (40 comments) Go to top ↑

      I think Vlad said it in mediating a squabble between the blogmaster and Grym: no one disputes at some point there will be hell to pay for fiscal policies. The question is when.

      And Earl, LYB is dropping like a stone just like you suggested. This time I was out of it. (whew!) It tripped a somewhat tight stop.

      • Re: "And Earl, LYB is dropping like a stone just like you... [#117147]
        By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

        Re: “And Earl, LYB is dropping like a stone just like you suggested.”

        Yes, LYB is a new member of the Cara All-Weather 100, which is based on my assessment of the company, not the recent stock price. Simply put, LYB, like the others, is a high quality company in which we will invest our time in studying possible trade entries and exits. If it is not a Cara 100 stock, I don’t trade it.

        We also have a Cara Growth 100, which will not be written up in this blog unless for reporting on unusual matters we may see.

        For the Cara All-Weather 100, however, we are working on systems that will provide you technical support and resistance, plus easier access to charts and analyst ratings changes, etc.

        The BillCara.com web platform is now up, but the content has not been fully archived. That will take time. But, I think you will see that 2013 will be a year where we elevate our game, and you’ll be able to quickly see what we are doing outside Cara Community.

      • ALOHA!! The question is when. When? Really? I have always... [#117146]
        By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

        ALOHA!!

        The question is when.

        When? Really? I have always believed we have been “living it” all along! The “hell to pay” has been ongoing my entire life. Lets note the hellacious pay-as-you-go plan we’re all on now:

        -Healthcare monthly payments equal to mortgages
        -Gas over $4
        -A 51% overall tax bracket
        -$225,000 median home prices
        -Low end cars over $20K
        -Bread over $4
        -Waikiki ocean view hotel room $359
        -Big Macs for $3.57
        -Papayas at $3
        -Good studio camera $80K
        -Glock pistol $600
        -Gold over $1600USD

        When-n-n!!!

        • -Waikiki ocean view hotel room $359 -Papayas at... [#117148]
          By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

          -Waikiki ocean view hotel room $359
          -Papayas at $3

          ———————

          I’d recommend skipping Hawaii altogether if you are trying to make your buck last and instead fly to any number of places in Central America! Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama are all great.

          If you are okay with veering off the touristy path, you can live like a king in a $100/ night hotel room (like a prince for $50 or $60!). There are even some great places where you can stay for $30-40/night and the mom and pop owners will do your laundry free of charge!!

          Fruits are cheap too – a guy will grab a pineapple off a tree and chop it with a machete for a $1 or 2. And don’t get me started on those coconut drinks!! Never have been a fan of papaya – ones i have in the midwest are never properly ripened I think

          • ALOHA!! I'd recommend skipping Hawaii altogether if you... [#117154]
            By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

            ALOHA!!

            I’d recommend skipping Hawaii altogether if you are trying to make your buck last and instead fly to any number of places in Central America! Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama are all great.

            It’s not about skipping anything …

            My point was in my teens a Waikiki ocean view hotel room was $18. What happened during my lifetime that makes me now have to pay $359 for the same room?

            Of course all of us Americans know what it was … we vote for them time after time!

            So when will the big MONETARY CRASH hit? When will the USD see 52?

            It did already … The Titanic sank! We’re all in lifeboats looking for the next iceberg, but the ship sank long ago. We just think that because we’re still floating that somehow we are exceptional so we’re all on the lookout for the bigger iceberg. But we’re in the dinghies! We fail to realize that we all agreed to this and all our best thinking got us here …

            I just believe we don’t have to be in the dinghies any more, but we’ve been brainwashed into thinking the dinghy is our home. The dinghy is all there is. And so the dinghy becomes comfortable. We acclimate to our dinghy’s every nook and cranny. We cling to our dinghy … We accept a lesser money! We buy the lie … we not only buy the lie … we worship it~

          • To help drive home the point, did anyone take note of the... [#117155]
            By: terryC (336 comments) Go to top ↑

            To help drive home the point, did anyone take note of the Farm Producer Prices (all grades) for Dec were up 9% over the prev month and over 14% YoY. Groceries and other products derived from agriculture are inflating rapidly and yet we are told inflation is in check.

          • ... [#117156]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
          • "My point was in my teens a Waikiki ocean view hotel room... [#117166]
            By: MarkOfTheBeast (27 comments) Go to top ↑

            “My point was in my teens a Waikiki ocean view hotel room was $18. What happened during my lifetime that makes me now have to pay $359 for the same room?”

            Well, yes, that $18 a night hotel room (not for blacks or asians or hawaiians) is now $359 (everyone welcome).

            And, along the way, we eliminated child labor (damn! no more 10-year old ‘coal pickers’) and slave wages for women and other piece ‘work at home’ laborers. We exchanged bread lines, soup kitchens, and ‘work’ houses for food stamps and unemployment insurance. Ah, for the ‘good old days’ when Scrooge’s change of heart meant the difference between a poor boy (tiny Tim) living or dying.

            http://www.google.com/search?q=child+labor+in+coal

            Damn! We even increased the life expectancy of those poor; no wonder we are going broke. Better to just ‘off’ them (like old work horses) once their productive life is over. ‘Retirement’ (except for the ‘rich,’ of course) is a 20th century invention and is clearly at the heart of our present financial crisis.

          • ALOHA!! And, along the way, we eliminated child labor... [#117167]
            By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

            ALOHA!!

            And, along the way, we eliminated child labor (damn! no more 10-year old ‘coal pickers’) and slave wages for women and other piece ‘work at home’ laborers. We exchanged bread lines, soup kitchens, and ‘work’ houses for food stamps and unemployment insurance. Ah, for the ‘good old days’ when Scrooge’s change of heart meant the difference between a poor boy (tiny Tim) living or dying.

            ” … we exchanged …”

            Thanks for the link and as you mention “exchanged” is a key word in your sentences. If you scroll down the images at your link you will soon see all those 1900s b&w photos start turning to color! While you go off on your shopping sprees at Best Buy, thanks to globalization, all we have done is “exchange” the US child labor for the China, Pakistan, Indian, Somali and Bangladesh child labor.

            Now click your same link and look at the photos under the article “Angels In Hell”. Instead of white skins they’re now brown skins!
            LINK: http://gmbakash.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/child-

            What’s the life expectancy of a Pakistani or Indian child laborer or children in the Asian sex trade? Do “we” care?

            Over the past 100 years mechanization of mining has pretty much eliminated any child labor in western based mining. Mechanization has also eliminated a majority of adult labor jobs as well. Politicization has eliminated the “labor unit” … which is more my concern. Still as a Nation who considers only monopolistic voting practices we have all mutually agreed this is all in our best interest. Of course it all works until it doesn’t …

            If you think we have not “exchanged” one kind of slavery for another then the propaganda won.

  13. http://www.amazon.com/Maisto-Fresh-Metal-Tailwinds... a... [#117145]
    By: jock (1011 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.amazon.com/Maisto-Fresh-Metal-Tailwinds

    a die-cast model predator drone! Check the customer reviews. hillarious shades of irony … like:

    “hey, with this I can pretend I’m a Nobel Peace Prize winner !

  14. I noticed the homebuilders all decided to sit out today's... [#117150]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    I noticed the homebuilders all decided to sit out today’s rally:

    Ticker Price Change
    BZH 18 -0.82
    CVCO 51.37 -0.49
    DHI 23.35 -0.31
    HOV 5.61 -0.1
    KBH 18.52 -0.55
    LEN 41.07 -0.47
    MDC 39.75 0.43
    MHO 23.86 -3.38
    MTH 41.77 -2.47
    NVR 1023 -6.66
    PHM 20.35 -0.39
    RYL 38.46 -1.26
    SPF 7.93 -0.37
    TOL 36.3 -1.15
    XHB 28.75 -0.07

  15. ... [#117151]
    By: jragusa (121 comments) Go to top ↑

    removed

  16. ... [#117157]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑
  17. ... [#117159]
    By: loannetter (1298 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2013/feb/02/inequal

    Robert Reich has been teaching and preaching the same thing since the 1970′s and finally a film on the subject made waves at Sundance: “Inequality for All”

    As one of those late 70′s college graduates that landed my first job after 36 interviews I can truthfully say everyone in my class is still working with no end in sight for many.

  18. but the classic charts remain the same. A lesson from Peter... [#117161]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    but the classic charts remain the same. A lesson from Peter Brandt:

    http://peterlbrandt.com/best-dressed-list-2012-las

  19. For your weekend reading and... [#117163]
    By: CaptK (71 comments) Go to top ↑

    For your weekend reading and enjoyment:

    _______________________________________

    The Gods of the Copybook Headings
    ________________________________________

    AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
    I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
    Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

    We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
    That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
    But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
    So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

    We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
    Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
    But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
    That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

    With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
    They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
    They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
    So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

    When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
    They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
    But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “Stick to the Devil you know.”

    On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
    (Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
    Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “The Wages of Sin is Death.”

    In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
    By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
    But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: “If you don’t work you die.”

    Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
    And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
    That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
    And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

    As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
    There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
    That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
    And the burnt Fool’s bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

    And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
    When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
    As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
    The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

    ________________________________________

  20. ... is up. I like the 49ers... [#117164]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    … is up.

    I like the 49ers today.

  21. $VIX daily - nothing changed. $VIX drops to near previous... [#117165]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    $VIX daily – nothing changed. $VIX drops to near previous lows while ROC increases and diverges from price. Something to watch.

    $USD:DBV weekly – Uncle Buck continuing the downtrend against G10 currency fund. 3rd time in as many years oversold.

    CEW daily – emerging market currency fund looking on the verge of breakout. Note the bearish divergences in RSI. Something to watch.

    Someone noted to Nemo that money is flowing in to defend the dollar here. On the stockcharts link I provided above the TA illustrated a H&S pattern, albeit with a rising neckline. Two distinct possibilities. Definitely worth watching.

    $DJUSHB weekly – housing index shows bearish divergence in RSI with sell signal at same time as price drops back through 500 after briefly breaking it. Note the significantly higher selling volume for last week.

    Never really happy with the $NYMOT and other oscillators charts, Geoff gave me the push to rejig this chart into a longer-term, ‘cumulative’ type McClellan oscillator, which shows some utility.

    The bearish divergences between $NYSI and $NYA, the composite index measuring all stocks on the NYSE make the 2011 top apparent in hindsight. Although severely overbought here, there is nothing to suggest more than a pullback.

    However, if bullish market action turns into flat or topping market action, then perhaps this chart will offer us a more constructive opinion later. Nonetheless, MACD shows weakening trend and the bullishness index for SPX has peaked once again.

    Lots of warning signals in these larger time frames. From Friday conversation with a friend on Skype:

    [01.02.2013 21:20:11] Leslie Robinson: FAS drop to vwap breaks 15 min BB’s. Either hard selling or bounce back into range. VWAP is my stop

    [01.02.2013 21:15:30] Leslie Robinson: looking for vwap bounce to go long

    [01.02.2013 21:15:47] Leslie Robinson: potential monday trap

    [01.02.2013 21:16:02] m: nah, likely flat into close, don’t think we see much movement …methinks Tuesday drop

    [01.02.2013 21:16:39] m: gotta’ let all the Mutual Fund money get positioned, everybody read the headlines over the weekend and decide to call there brokers on Monday to make them long, then sell

    Costing me a lot but getting into tune with market makers and seeing this bullish action for what it is. Whether this was a sucker punch Friday will become clear enough shortly.

    Now folding almost profitable understanding of intraday time frame into something larger thanks to Geoff, Bill and Vad’s efforts. The one time frame accompanies the other and vice versa.

  22. An interesting analysis of previous runs and consolidations... [#117168]
    By: Juniorgoldminerseeker (228 comments) Go to top ↑

    An interesting analysis of previous runs and consolidations in the Gold Miners suggesting 3 tests of the 50% retracement is typical.

    http://goldscents.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/miners-ar

  23. ALOHA!! We had these types ... LINK:... [#117169]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    We had these types …
    LINK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sillEgUHGC4&feature

    Now we have career politicians, lawyers, actors and ex-Goldman Sachs employees guided by hedge funds, lobbyists, environmentalists and sadomasochists running Congress!

  24. Mish had a post on how the cover of Barrons may mark the... [#117170]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

    Mish had a post on how the cover of Barrons may mark the cycle top – ties in with Geoff’s sentiment index reading of 104. One choice comment Mish selected was:

    “If there is a great rotation going on from bonds to stocks, we may be only in the top of the first inning,” says Jason Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners in New York.

    First inning. Wow. And the TOP of the first at that.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/02

  25. ALOHA!! Okay, tops or no tops ... Money flows in or out... [#117172]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    Okay, tops or no tops … Money flows in or out … Let’s just look at the “cold facts”! What sort of bonus do you deserve for this kind of performance?
    LINK: http://tinyurl.com/aa7s4d3

  26. Bond investors might be complacent in the political... [#117171]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bond investors might be complacent in the political scandals threatening to envelope Italy (Berlusconi return) and Spain (ruling party corruption scandal) but Super Mario has yet to put paid to his promise to do whatever it takes to save the Euro.

    Accepting his word at face value and accepting gold as a measure of currency value in this time of QE then these twin political issues threatening to turn into quagmire might offer the trigger to move gold and silver in a meaningful fashion this spring.

    Of course if these two countries are deemed ungovernable or are not sticking to the EU austerity program, well then it’s a whole new ball game.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis

    ————————

    If Japan is targeting inflation it’d wanna do better than this:

    10.9%
    Actual

    13.2%
    Consensus

    11.8%
    Previous

    the monetary base is contracting, not growing YoY for January. Hmm wonder what is removing that money? Fleeing Japan for productive western assets? Gold?

  27. ... [#117175]
    By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑