Bill Cara’s Blog for Feb 1, 2013
CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.
Stock futures have added to their overnight gains following the Unemployment data which showed a gain of 157,000, which was in line with expectations, and a slight rise of unemployment to 7.9%. Revisions were positive for 2012.
Every so often, I see some data that I feel you absolutely have to see and this morning is one of those days.
NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment (chart courtesy of sentimentrader.com):
Yes, you read that correctly – in aggregate, managers are net LEVERAGED long which is something that has never happened before in this survey.
This is due to managers who are chasing returns by jumping on the stock bandwagon and its starting to feel crowded. This is a contrarian indicator, meaning that when too many are leaning one way, which they clearly are now, it is time to go the other way. Yes, as I have written before, growing confidence is positive for the market, but when too many are too confident it is time to be looking to pare back risk. We need to keep our eyes peeled for cracks in the pavement.
Have a great trading day!
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
|Symbol||Name||Last Trade||Change||Related Info|
||10.94 (0.45%)||Components, Chart, More|
||15.60 (0.62%)||Components, Chart, More|
||32.18 (0.86%)||Components, Chart, More|
||23.75 (0.31%)||Components, Chart, More|
||0.25 (0.07%)||Components, Chart, More|
|^OSEAX||OSE All Share||517.93
||3.24 (0.63%)||Components, Chart, More|
||0.77 (0.21%)||Components, Chart, More|
||2.28 (0.03%)||Components, Chart, More|
||29.38 (0.47%)||Components, Chart, More|
||5.62 (0.55%)||Chart, More|
||0.59 (0.04%)||Chart, More|
|GD.AT||Athex Composite Share Price Index||995.66
||8.90 (0.90%)||Chart, More|
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.
The above commentary is a shortened version of the February 1 issue of our exclusive Wagner Daily swing trade newsletter. To learn how to profitably trade stocks and ETFs, give our end-of-day stock newsletter a 30-day risk-free test drive by checking out this page now.
Point and Figure on Canada
Cara on the Metalminers
Cara on the International Markets
CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report
CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report