Bill Cara’s Blog for Dec 20, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

I have been thinking a lot about gold the last couple of days so I looked back at my trading journal over the past decade.

I have been a professional trader since 1989. However, I only started trading gold about a decade ago and have learned 10 times as much about emotions and trading in those years, in that vehicle, than I have in all the other years with all the other security types combined. This is because gold is the most emotional trade there is and traders do stupid things with it. The tech bubble in the late 1990s showed how irrational markets can get but gold trumps that period. My early years when I traded in an actual trading pit, surrounded by screaming traders, was a great lesson about how to fade MY emotions and gave me a great starting point for gold, but traders never stop learning or they fail and I have learned a lot about gold.

Cocky traders will eventually blow out their accounts. Survivors have been humbled by mistakes and learn from them but gold traders can’t seem to keep their emotions in check.

Over the last few months, I have made some good calls on gold only because the key drivers for a long trade were present – not because I have a crystal ball. Two weeks ago I told you that those key drivers were in place for the gold miners much like they were in place for the S&P 500 in mid November. The S&P long call has been correct and has not looked back. However, the gold miner trade has not performed like it has in similar past periods and I have written notes of caution because of the poor price action.

Although the long miners signal has not failed yet with a lower price, it has not performed as well as I thought it would based on history. So, I want to repeat that you need to have stops in place or have the fortitude to hold through market declines. When the US dollar did what it looked like it would do (down) and the stock market did what it looked like it should do (up) BUT gold doesn’t rally, it has to get your attention. I have read some trading sites that are showing anger and despair with many traders talking about throwing in the towel on the asset class. This is exactly the wrong time to leave the space – and that’s my point.

In looking over my notes of the last decade, I have come to this conclusion – what has happened before is happening now. The fundamentals for the gold bull market continue to improve and price will eventually move to the inflation adjusted high of about $2900 or higher. Big money knows this and is using any catalyst to move prices lower in order to run the small trader out of the market – some call this manipulation, I call it part of the game, but it is definitely there. If a professional wants to SELL a security, they want to get the highest price available and will be quiet about selling so as not to spook the market and get the algos cooking to the downside. When a professional wants to BUY and they have the size to move the market, they jam prices down and run sell stops that move price lower quickly and then they buy. It’s “sell it to buy it”. That is what is happening as those short of miners are running stops and getting out of their positions.

It’s happening in the futures market too. COT data showed a high level of small speculative longs and these are the ones getting run out of the market now. I’m guessing that Friday’s COT data will show a change in their positions because the puked them out this week.

So; should the US Dollar find support and rally now, but gold’s support fails and gold moves lower, I know that these thoughts are true.

Many people have just about given up on the gold market and if they do, they will have made the worst decision of their investing life. Those are probably the same people who got caught up in the tech mania and collapse in 2000. This is the time to protect your portfolio with sell-stops, but also watch for signs to get long because when this decline is over, that low could be the last low ever again achieved in gold.

Like I said, I have seen this same price action and emotional levels in the past and I will again.

Ok, here are the charts:

US Dollar:

ggimage02_122012.png

Gold:

ggimage03_122012.png

GDX:

ggimage04_122012.png

The long-term chart showing how price action repeats on its way to $2900 or higher:

ggimage01_122012.png

I will write more on this in the coming report over the weekend but when all is said and done, the long term buy and holders will end up making the most money when the bull ends a few years from now.

Btw, I’m sorry if you still have not received the last report, please e-mail me and we will make sure that you get one. We will be sending a new report to all of you this weekend so if you don’t want one, please let me know.

If you haven’t requested one yet, please e-mail me and we will get you on the list.

Have a great trading day!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,414.31 6:45AM EST Down 13.06 (0.54%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,502.80 5:08AM EST Up 4.10 (0.16%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,667.62 6:59AM EST Up 18.99 (0.52%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,670.68 6:45AM EST Up 2.18 (0.03%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 346.10 6:44AM EST Up 1.50 (0.44%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 492.75 6:44AM EST Down 3.16 (0.64%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 343.56 6:59AM EST Down 1.16 (0.34%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,918.75 6:45AM EST Down 27.32 (0.39%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,965.42 6:45AM EST Up 3.83 (0.06%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 1,033.44 6:59AM EST Down 7.85 (0.75%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,485.73 7:45AM EST Up 8.04 (0.54%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 883.76 6:45AM EST Up 5.35 (0.61%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

To learn how to trade stocks and ETFs for consistent trading profits in both bull AND bear markets, sign up to receive our best daily ETF and stock picks through The Wagner Daily swing trading newsletter.


Point and Figure on Canada


OptionOracle


Harp’s Roadmap


Cara on the Metalminers


Cara on the International Markets


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. 8:30 AM ET GDP 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET... [#116220]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 8:30 AM ET GDP
    • 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims
    • 8:30 AM ET Corporate Profits
    • 9:45 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
    • 10:00 AM ET Existing Home Sales
    • 10:00 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Survey
    • 10:00 AM ET FHFA House Price Index
    • 10:00 AM ET Leading Indicators
    • 10:30 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report
    • 1:00 PM ET 5-Yr TIPS Auction
    • 4:30 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet
    • 4:30 PM ET Money Supply
  2. 1 in Accumulation Zone 1 in Buy alert 3 in Distribution... [#116221]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 1 in Accumulation Zone
    • 1 in Buy alert
    • 3 in Distribution Zone
    • 2 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone (3%): Monthly 2, Weekly 5, Daily 3
    Distribution Zone (24%): Monthly 7, Weekly 26, Daily 40

  3. ... [#116223]
    By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  4. ... [#116224]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑
  5. I'm closing my DUST position at the open. It has went up... [#116225]
    By: jimddavis (98 comments) Go to top ↑

    I’m closing my DUST position at the open. It has went up faster than expected these past few days. Still “short term” bearish but it’s time to take a profit. These tripple ETF’s are only for the very short term and very brave!

  6. BBBY - numbers cut at Credit Suisse. Shares of BBBY now... [#116226]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    BBBY – numbers cut at Credit Suisse. Shares of BBBY now seen reaching $75. Estimates also reduced, given the company’s new guidance. Outperform rating.

    TGT – Target downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Cleveland Research following checks that indicate disappointing December sales trends and a more cautious 2013 domestic outlook.

  7. Its early yet, but I'm seeing that the premarket pounding... [#116228]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

    Its early yet, but I’m seeing that the premarket pounding in PM hasn’t been followed up by a selling of the mining stocks. For a change. Specifically also, SIL has been significantly outperforming the metal ETF SLV. GDX:GLD isn’t looking as good, but at least the miners aren’t underperforming, which they usually do.

    This is a sign to me that someone is accumulating the miners during this downturn in the metal.

    FD: I’ve got a fair number of silver miners

  8. Good piece this... [#116229]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good piece this morning

  9. I went 100% cash after the RBY fiasco. But today, I saw SLV... [#116230]
    By: papadynamite (446 comments) Go to top ↑

    I went 100% cash after the RBY fiasco. But today, I saw SLV dip below $29 and I sensed now was the time for a strategic position in the ETF and forget the miners! So I got SLV for $28.90 and I am not going to worry about it. Now, I return to my vacation, I got tickets to watch Syracuse play Temple at Madison Square Garden on Saturday and The Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium on Dec. 29, Syracuse against West Virginia. Should be fun. And lots of parties leading up to those events! Happy holidays everyone. papadynamite!!! boom, boom, boom!!!

  10. ... [#116231]
    By: Milesquare (281 comments) Go to top ↑
  11. Using GLD, gold had a blow off top at 1850 and then broke... [#116232]
    By: bsi87 (1171 comments) Go to top ↑

    Using GLD, gold had a blow off top at 1850 and then broke weekly LT trendline support in mid 2011 and has tripled topped around 1800 since then. It double bottomed around 1500, a long trading range. Now the daily RSI is 14 so it is approaching capitulation. Could hit RSI 10 and bounce but since bottoms are usually retested, there’s no rush to get long. If you look at the weekly charts for past 12 months, looks like there was a rejection of the lows around 1520-1500. IMO there’s no rush to get long the precious metals and again, MO, is one should look at them as trading vehicles and not LT holds…at this point.

    Interesting to see FCX turning its back on PM’s and buying oil exploration companies. Not saying all companies have great strategies but wondering what they see?

    FD:short a bit of silver

    • The Paulson news IMO is another piece of news toward... [#116235]
      By: bsi87 (1171 comments) Go to top ↑

      The Paulson news IMO is another piece of news toward building a tradeable bottom in PM’s. Morgan Stanley loved Paulson after his big mortgage trade. Now, not so much.

  12. Hi Geoff, It's very kind of you to share the reports of... [#116233]
    By: Eric (41 comments) Go to top ↑

    Hi Geoff, It’s very kind of you to share the reports of your methodologies and thinking. Much appreciated.

    Happy Holidays!

  13. Good morning, this PM space is for the brave or foolish... [#116234]
    By: worthcap (152 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning, this PM space is for the brave or foolish, adding some PSLV here, this has closed the gap on the charts.
    SLV still has a gap at 28 and my hypothesis put forth yesterday is looking to correct, so there is still time to buy IMO and we could go much lower.
    Was shopping around for some SLV puts and let a few cents stand in the way, looks foolish now. Very heavy volume in all strikes and expirations between now and Jan 19 as you can imagine:
    15,000+ Friday SLV 29 p contracts trading so far; next two most active are Jan 4th SLV 28 p & 28.50 p with 1700+ and 1800+ contracts.

  14. If you want a good visual of what has been happening with... [#116236]
    By: rosevillebill (150 comments) Go to top ↑

    If you want a good visual of what has been happening with the consumer since before the election just look at the Consumer Metrics Daily Demand Index.

    It has been a little gut wrenching to watch this chart everyday and try and stay long in the market. But I have and managed to tune out the TV touts and all the Fiscal Cliff rants. Like water off a ducks back. I’ve got my share of miners in my portfolio with a hold for 10yr time frame if needed. I consider the miners as having my gold stored for me in the ground. I don’t want to keep too much physical at my home and won’t put any in a bank and paper is out of the question.

    http://consumermetricsinstitute.com/

    Also, thank you Geoff for your guidance. I read you every day and got your report. I’m sure Bill is proud to have you on board.

    Merry CHRISTmas.

  15. Does anyone have a ballpark idea if US investors pay... [#116237]
    By: trevor (31 comments) Go to top ↑

    Does anyone have a ballpark idea if US investors pay Canadian LT cap gains tax on Canadian investments and approximately what that rate is? I spent over 45 minutes on the phone with Canadian Revenue people who bounced me from one office to another without being able to shed any light on this. Also, the Canadian government material online does not give any info on the lt cap gains rate for U.S. citizens. I’m not looking for tax advice, just a short answer. Thanks.

  16. they loved it at 700, now they don't at 500. It sold off... [#116239]
    By: bsi87 (1171 comments) Go to top ↑

    they loved it at 700, now they don’t at 500. It sold off hard Nov 19 and then undercut it again Dec 17 (love the symmetry). Got long at 513. My guess AAPL breaks above the ST high around 590, kills the shorts, gets the would be bulls chasing and runs it up to the broken support line around 675. I do have a sell stop limit order in case my rosy scenario doesn’t happen.

    FD: long AAPL

    • APPLE predicted the end DEC 2012 quarter EPS will be... [#116242]
      By: bobbor (33 comments) Go to top ↑

      APPLE predicted the end DEC 2012 quarter EPS will be $11.75.

      We know they usually understate predicted EPS so I estimate it wil be $14.4

      This will give then a EPS growth quarter over last year quarter of 4%. This will be the poorest quarter over quarter growth in many many years and may be a sign of a major drop in future EPS.

      I have sold my shares a couple of months ago.

      Regards

      • I think the question is whether, over the next couple... [#116243]
        By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

        I think the question is whether, over the next couple years, earnings might actually decline. The market is predicting low EPS growth for AAPL – if growth is low but it becomes evident that it will continue to at least be positive, I think AAPL is pretty darn cheap right here at a 11 or 12 P/E ratio, especially when you consider the $30B of cash. If fears become reality and AAPL sees earnings start to decline, I think fear could sink and push shares lower.

        I can’t say I know the ins/outs well enough to make a prediction but seems to me they have started to entrench pretty well in some areas outside of the pure device category. A co-worker told me he pays $15/month for AAPLs cloud service – that on top of whatever he purchases from their Itunes store. Point is that some of their revenue streams are diversifying and aren’t dependent on device margins themselves.

        It’s always interesting to see a clear market leader like AAPL trading at a fairly modest P/E. Will be interesting to see how the market resolves this one.

  17. Not a frequent poster but a daily reader. I was wondering... [#116240]
    By: Donka1 (3 comments) Go to top ↑

    Not a frequent poster but a daily reader. I was wondering if folks think that the selling in gold and gold miners could be tax related? People have likely built up some nice gains over the years.

    • that's the explanation most have had for the action over... [#116241]
      By: Tbolt (169 comments) Go to top ↑

      that’s the explanation most have had for the action over the past 2 weeks or so.

    • Donka, Yes, I posted yesterday: Submitted by Grym (5183... [#116255]
      By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

      Donka,

      Yes, I posted yesterday:

      Submitted by Grym (5183 comments) on Wed, 12/19/2012 – 10:53 #116199

      I will begin to be more concerned if we don’t see an upward gold price in January. I’m guessing there are many like me who have taken profits ahead of the 2013 likely tax increases.

  18. Sitting just above 200 Day MA; added some of that, CEF and... [#116244]
    By: worthcap (152 comments) Go to top ↑

    Sitting just above 200 Day MA; added some of that, CEF and SLV Jan 4 28.50 p

  19. Bought the Jan13 $11 Call... [#116245]
    By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bought the Jan13 $11 Call Option

  20. Today we made the following changes: Added: EMC Corp (EMC... [#116246]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    Today we made the following changes:
    Added: EMC Corp (EMC) and Royal Gold & Silver (RGLD);
    Removed: Rubicon (RBY) and Central Fund (CEF).

    Note that CEF will remain a core holding in the All-Weather portfolios and that, when convenient, positions in CEF and in RBY will be replaced by RGLD in the Growth portfolios.

    A few additional changes in the Cara 100 are contemplated.

    Note also that we made additional links for quick look-up to information for each company and stock.

    All of this information can be found using the Cara 100 tab on the top bar of the blog home page.

    • Bill - I've been studying Navios Maritime (NYSE:NM) in the... [#116252]
      By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill -

      I’ve been studying Navios Maritime (NYSE:NM) in the overbuilt ocean transport space for a possible long-term buy and hold after reviewing this list and doing some fundamental research:

      too tgp tk nna nmm nm ssw sdrl fro stng vlccf navg egle ship sblk tops gass slng ultr trmd newl drys esea free cplp anw kex hos glf ish gsl dht dsx dac gnk grz exm tnk sfl smit cmre box tnp nat balt osgiq prgn sb ckh tdw

      NM is an interesting company.

      *Diversified drybulk with a ~50% stake in its liquid carrier subsidairy
      *Lowest debt-to-earnings ratio in the sector
      *Least exposure to spot market rates (long-term charter rates in place) owing to a massive insurance payout and can wait through 2013 for Baltric Dry Index to recover from an 4-year uneconomic low
      *Legendary CEO Angeliki Frangou, 47, female, engineering background, master dealmaker, from Greek shipping family dating back to the 1700s, highly regarded, debt-savvy with a cyclical strategy
      *Incorporated outside of Greece, I think.
      *Fat dividend
      *$3B in assets and stable growth
      *Owns ports in South America
      *Owns a modern fleet
      *CEO sees growth in shipping from S America and Africa into Asia/U.S. markets and is well positioned
      *Growth in logistics division of the company
      *$175.4 million insurance payout in 2012 on defaulted contracts = cash flow rebound/recovery

      I plan a buy and hold for the dividend and wait for global shipping to recover for big gains in this leader within the sector. I like the big assets, globalization/commodities play here.

      http://www.navios.com/

      Seeking Alpha opinions and analysis:

      http://seekingalpha.com/article/1029251-surprise-c

      http://seekingalpha.com/article/1073791-2-bright-s

      http://seekingalpha.com/article/1004511-navios-mar

      Opinions, anyone?

  21. Picked up 2K @ $9.30 this am. This puke smells like rocket... [#116247]
    By: Sedona (77 comments) Go to top ↑

    Picked up 2K @ $9.30 this am.
    This puke smells like rocket fuel to me.
    Stop at $9.0.

  22. INK Alerts: Barrick Gold CoChair John Thorton bought 177.5k... [#116248]
    By: Sedona (77 comments) Go to top ↑

    INK Alerts: Barrick Gold CoChair John Thorton bought 177.5k shares yesterday at $33.86USD via http://stks.co/gHhM

  23. For what it is worth, I created this chart and have been... [#116249]
    By: Spyder (43 comments) Go to top ↑

    For what it is worth, I created this chart and have been watching the downward progress of GLD through recent time.
    It looks like we may be near a bottom of some sort based on symmetry, with a possible carry on to the 1.27 extension of the ABCD system.

  24. Good comment by Geoff this morning. Gold and silver... [#116250]
    By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good comment by Geoff this morning.

    Gold and silver manipulation is so obvious…so blatant. Actual physical markets appear to be acting opposite to
    paper markets with silver mostly sold out. Eric Sprott has been talking a lot about the this issue recently…. and his observations are credible. He has promised to report publicly if markets can not deliver his recent purchases for PSLV.

    I assume tax sales are also occurring now as cap gains tax hikes look very probable for next year.

    Investors need to stand firm and not let the manipulation drive them out. These pullbacks can be used to top off your holdings or let late comers into the game. Don’t get bucked off the bull. Hold on tight. The big rewards lie ahead.

    Here’s a good blog on the current PM manipulation

    http://tinyurl.com/brnjuky

    • Manipulation occurs in all markets - the best way to combat... [#116253]
      By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

      Manipulation occurs in all markets – the best way to combat it is to be diversified in your investments and not utilize margin. I’ve lost a few pennies tuition on some flyers in junior miners and the like in the past.

      What I’d say is that as much as you may convince yourself that company X or commodity Y is the best place to store your hard earned money, always remember the most important part of investing – understanding what you can’t and thus don’t know. If you concentrate on understanding what you can’t know, you know a lot about what risks not to take.

      The darkest hour is always before the dawn. The correct long-term trade is tested in the short-term. Make lots of bets that you perceive as low-risk/high-reward and make sure those bets aren’t well correlated. Don’t make one bet that you convince yourself is a sure thing – it’s not.

      Trying to crack the holy grail of market manipulation will only lead one in endless circles and will be ultimately unfulfilling. Control what can be controlled.

    • MoKat you clearly aren't up to speed on global happenings... [#116256]
      By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

      MoKat you clearly aren’t up to speed on global happenings. Remember the world is about to end tomorrow… again.

      For those in the neighbourhood Bugurach in France is reportedly going to be saved – there’s still time to get yerself there. For the rest of us plebs a good glass of red will help end it on a brighter note. Malbec’s my funeral friend to the end.

      Guess the world ending tomorrow can’t look any uglier than the metal futures charts today. Tempted by a little christmas buy here but a test of range support looks reasonable.

      • And here is Jesse's take on the PM... [#116257]
        By: jragusa (121 comments) Go to top ↑

        And here is Jesse’s take on the PM plunge:

        http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.pt/2012/12/go

        “a certain party is carrying a enormous, and losing, short position, one of the ways to manage the end of year mark to market would be to smack the price down as much as possible, and cover at least part of the short position going into year end, ending around Dec 26 or 27 given the “Buy to Close” rules”

        Here is the Comex Metals Calendar for the rest of the year.

        Dec. 21 Nymex January 2013 platinum options expiry
        Dec. 26 Comex January 2013 copper options expiry
        Dec. 27 Comex December gold futures last trading day
        Dec. 27 Comex December silver futures last trading day
        Dec. 27 Comex December copper futures last trading day
        Dec. 27 Comex December E-micro gold futures last trading day
        Dec. 27 Comex January 2013 E-mini copper futures last trading day
        Dec. 28 Nymex December palladium futures last trading day
        Dec. 30 Nymex January 2013 platinum futures first notice day
        Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 silver futures first notice day
        Dec. 31 Comex January 2013 copper futures first notice day

        I would expect manipulation to continue until Dec 27, at which point I plan to augment [scale up] my existing PM exposure.

        • "one of the ways to manage the end of year mark to market... [#116260]
          By: BillySundance (1355 comments) Go to top ↑

          “one of the ways to manage the end of year mark to market would be to smack the price down as much as possible, and cover at least part of the short position going into year end”

          If only it was as easy as just “smacking down” the price and then covering some – that explanation is way too simple. In order to attempt this, the “enormous” short would need to have additional capacity for risk if their attempts to smack down the market were to be quickly met with buyers and turn against them. Which leads to the question – why would anyone with endless risk capacity care about the year-end marks on their position? There are other forces at play besides one or two enormous players – one can only smack down the market if there is no demand available to meet the supply being exerted.

          The real story, and what has people up in arms is the collapse in mining stocks. Hindsight is 20/20, but over a number of years this space became over-invested and the market has turned on highly capital intensive industries such as mining. Rosy outlooks from 5-years ago had miners trading at excessive multiples to earnings – they have fallen more in line with other sectors in the last couple years. The thought was that a higher gold price would lead to significant margin expansion but as prices went up so did the cost of acquiring and developing reserves. This sent lots of capital flowing into miners which is now being worked off by the market. Only a select handful of the miners have actually had the ability to develop reserves at reasonable prices and leverage existing assets to increase production.

          If miners were trading anywhere near their peak P/Es, traders would shrug off 5% moves in POG like nothing but as it is these small blips create huge volatility in the miners. The excess capital in this sector is still in the process of being worked off and this process must complete before we can resume a meaningful uptrend. In the mean time there is a continual binge/purge of those willing to try and catch the bottoms in miners.

        • as one of my daily reads jragusa, you forgot Jesse's most... [#116273]
          By: Les (7233 comments) Go to top ↑

          as one of my daily reads jragusa, you forgot Jesse’s most important point in that post – that is, the fiscal cliff remains the great unkown factor here, regardless of his trading notes showing the same behaviour on the same day in 2011.

          If memory serves me correctly Congress has until the 21st to introduce new bills to be passed before the end of year. Boehner has struck out with his zealot party and overnight index futures reflect this.

          http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-12-21/republicans-

          I am struck by the thought of John Goodman in The Big Lebowski:
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrykk7E_2i0

  25. NG is always on my trade list. I've been in calls for a few... [#116251]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    NG is always on my trade list. I’ve been in calls for a few days and looking for it to test the 12/7/12 gap – appears to be working through a swing low; the nice thing about UNG, at least as far as I’ve noticed is it does not depend on the general market direction. I really don’t like the fact that some of these large chemical companies are fighting energy exports of LNG which would go a long way in providing balance to imports, and funding the middle east… – it just goes to show how global these companies are and could care less about the US. I’ll take the administrations and energy sectors side on this – I ‘believe’ it’s simply ‘GREED’ on the part of the chem ind. They are strategically placed to make profits regardless what happens, sometimes their margins get squeezed but how many plants do you know of that closed their doors because they can’t make money???? ZERO.

    Please do your own DD on UNG – I trade/scalp it often.

    regards
    Earl

    • Earl, I also have been trading on the price of NG and... [#116258]
      By: terryC (336 comments) Go to top ↑

      Earl,

      I also have been trading on the price of NG and doing well with Horizon’s BetaPro 2X leveraged HNU and HND traded on the TSE. Right now I am in cash waiting for a near-term price swing to the downside in CME futures, based on close tracking of weather data, storage adds/draw-downs, and a few other macro indicators of NG demand. Presently, most indicators suggest warmer-than-normal temps in high demand areas of N.A. a near-record high volume in storage, near-peak capacity oil-refining causing backups and NG production cutbacks, declining drilling CAPEX by some big players such as PDI, and so forth. Should NG prices return to spring levels I will be all-in going long with HNU. The only way I can see a significant rise in NG price and demand ant time soon would come from a continuing lessening of pipeline capacity to transport from the field thereby increasing demand, or possibly a moratorium or limitation on shale gas fracking due to environmental concerns. I am watching April futures prices closely since this is the weakest-demand month of the year, historically.

      • ... [#116261]
        By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑
        • I am not surprised that the fracking issue is becoming... [#116263]
          By: terryC (336 comments) Go to top ↑

          I am not surprised that the fracking issue is becoming controversial. It will soon become a major political football. This year I traveled in New Brunswick in the east, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba in western Canada where in both places major fracking/development is underway. There were no shortages of signs posted in fields along the way to the effect “No Fracking Allowed!” or “No Fracking Way!”. From what I’ve read, its like this in the USA as well. This is a rapidly growing grassroots movement that vote-seeking politcos will want to hitch their wagons to. I believe there is substantive proof of a problem with the chemicals being used which poison groundwater. If there ever was a halt to fracking the NG price would instantly double. The debate is well worth watching.

  26. ... [#116254]
    By: korvus (248 comments) Go to top ↑
  27. "In terms of the overall market, it is interesting to see... [#116259]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    “In terms of the overall market, it is interesting to see rates across the board showing resilience, albeit at already low levels. This is just one side of the story, however, with owners now tending to have to accept greater waiting time, positioning or flexibility on duration in order to fix business which, taking commissions into account, would bring most vessels from Panama downwards to broadly opex levels, and thus be seen as almost as low as they can go.” – Braemar Seascope Report Nov 29, 2012

  28. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/ Who has... [#116262]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

    Who has the FAT finger?

    This is your social equity…

    THIS is your social equity on big govt…

    • ... [#116265]
      By: California Kid (278 comments) Go to top ↑
      • No doubt financial alchemy and the corrupt way the system... [#116267]
        By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

        No doubt financial alchemy and the corrupt way the system is setup is the cause of the big picture malice in financial markets. But this specific drop, who knows why.

        But looking at the timing, the total bluff by Boehner’s plan B failing, and the expected incompetency of our govt to find real solutions to their runaway spending problem, seems to be what will be blamed.

        Who can be surprised. a country of citizens with debt problems and lack of basic math/compounding interest skills, cannot complain about a debt addicted govt.

        the govt we have is a mirror of it’s people it seems

        • NYUGrad, "But looking at the timing, the total bluff by... [#116279]
          By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

          NYUGrad,

          “But looking at the timing, the total bluff by Boehner’s plan B failing, and the expected incompetency of our govt to find real solutions to their runaway spending problem, seems to be what will be blamed.”

          I see no indication of any attempt at a solution. What we have is the same people who caused or allowed ALL of our economic problems pretending to care.

          Why would they want to change anything? They (the core group who run the whole show) make their own pay and benefits rules (exempt from Obama Care). They take care of the special interests who take care of them. They retire with full benefits (with few exceptions) regardless of what they are caught doing (Insider trading? Moi?)

          If the world ends today they will go on to fleece the devil ;-(

      • The notional, I repeat notional value of all derivative... [#116268]
        By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

        The notional, I repeat notional value of all derivative contracts is similar to the notional value of all insurance contracts in force today which probably equates to 20X worldwide GDP.

        Derivatives were the 07-08-09 story. The problem with ‘finance industry’ derivatives is that they are un-regulated with no central clearing administration…They are not evil, per se. A single share of stock in any company is a derivative to evidence the owners percentage call on the assets and cash generated by that company.

        Since the world ends tomorrow it may not matter much since the insurance payouts will no doubt trigger a worldwide financial collapse. The question then becomes, where are the payees?

  29. I listened to the teleconference announcing the latest... [#116264]
    By: terryC (336 comments) Go to top ↑

    I listened to the teleconference announcing the latest quarterly performance. At the same time, I had on the screen RIMM After Hours Trading in real time. As the CEO gave the capsule of performance which was arguably sharply better than general consensus of analyst expectations based on several metrics – the stock shot up about 8% within the first half hour in AH. Then the analysts came onto the call for Q&A with a determined focus to tear apart one less-significant revenue source: enterprise service fees. Although they were higher than the previous quarter the analysts wanted to focus on creating a big negative because RIM was offering menu pricing which they presumed would be harmful to earnings – despite the clear explanation of how the change is more competitive and will allow users to tailor services to their needs. Immediately the stock started to nosedive and ended the AH trading session down 9% from the close of regular trading. As expected, the WSJ collaterally posted an article about the negative effect of RIM’s new services pricing model and ignored almost everything else that was positive. This stock is being gamed BIGTIME by HB&B and once again small investors are being hung out to dry.

    • Hi Terry, the analysts are paid to preach to you and me... [#116266]
      By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Terry,

      the analysts are paid to preach to you and me. big money is not listening to them.

      remember it is not why it goes up or down. why implies right and wrong decisions, which result to emotional baggage.

      all we have are systems, setups, buying rules, and selling rules.

      good luck.

  30. When are they catching the big fish? I have been saying... [#116269]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    When are they catching the big fish? I have been saying that SEC must stop settling with likes of Deutsche, HSBC, UBS, etc. I too would pay $1b to keep 5b+ I earned illegally.

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-21/wall-s

  31. 12 years ago a cab driver told me as I was his drunk... [#116270]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    12 years ago a cab driver told me as I was his drunk passenger, that life is usually crystal clear. But people just don’t want to see it.

    We are going over the cliff as I said weeks ago. It’s the best outcome for max leverage for Obama.

    Greece has already defaulted long ago but the headlines still live on.

    taxes are going up

    spending will also go up

    debt will rise

    housing is in a looong bottoming process which might take decade for rising prices to offset the inflation and interest on mortgage and closing fees if you sold.

    the subway fare in nyc rises every 2 yrs

    In 30 yrs when is my turn, my guess is social security will be part of history lessons.

  32. ... [#116271]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑
  33. ALOHA!! It is the 21st in Australia now. Here in Hawaii it... [#116274]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    It is the 21st in Australia now. Here in Hawaii it is still the 20th.

    OZ? If anyone in Australia is alive please let us know …

  34. ... [#116272]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑