Bill Cara’s Blog for Aug 28, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Whenever there is a slowing of momentum in price series data that, for the most part, is still trending up, there is going to be a technical pattern called “bearish divergence”. Analysts typically point out this condition as a precursor of change. It often is; but not always.

For some reason – probably the fact that humans are programmed to hold fear on a higher level of emotion than greed – a bearish divergence is deemed more important to us traders than a bullish divergence.

What, in simple terms, is a bullish divergence other than saying that stopping pounding one’s head against the wall feels good? In trader-speak, this is the greed motivator at work.

So “bearish divergence” then is a fear motivator. If you hear it from enough people, particularly ones you respect, then fear will start to play on your emotions.

But; remember, the market is a game that plays people. As in any game, mistakes cause losses. And, in every game, there are mistakes. We all make them. So, the question is; how do we reduce them.

As I see it, rational behavior in the short-term, for traders, is best achieved by stretching one’s horizon, looking at the longer-term data charts, for example, and by examining the ratio charts I have been producing recently in the Week In Review blog for evidence that long-term trends are changing.

That’s easier said than done, of course; but something we must attempt.

We can also enter stop limit orders, like a Stop Sell or a Stop Buy.

Here is an example. Yesterday I discussed XHB, the US House Builders ETF. Because of a strengthening of the US economy in the past few months, ETF has been soaring. But interest rates may start lifting, causing mortgage rates to rise and home purchasing activity to stall. So the previous momentum in the XHB price series has cooled. Bearish divergence has set in. Traders who are psychologically incapable of taking losses are selling. Mistakes are being made.

Here is the short-term (Daily) chart of XHB, showing the bearish divergence.

blog12_aug_28.1.gif

What’s a trader to do?

If you take a look at the same chart, but for a monthly, not daily, data series, the bearish divergence is almost not apparent. Yes, the technical indicators I use are showing higher risk; but there is no absolute need to sell at this point.

blog12_aug_28.2.gif

What I suggest then is to go back to the short-term chart of XHB and see that the price (23.29) is just below the recent high of 23.43, and just above the 8-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 23.08. If I was very nervous about this particular data series or about the market in general, I would place a Stop Sell limit order at ~23.08 and a Stop Buy at maybe 23.44.

I would not be initiating positions in XHB at this point, where the technical indicators are showing higher risk than when I would have been a buyer back in early June or early August, say, or at three different times in 2009, 2010 and 2011 (see the circles on the chart, which indicate the low-risk periods). But if I already held the position today, the Stop Buy price would be the time to possibly add a bit more or, more likely, the point I would become less concerned about the bearish divergence. The Stop Sell price, taken from the 8-period EMA, then, is simply a mathematically based discipline.

Maybe the Daily chart presents too short a time horizon for you. If so, then you can look to the Weekly chart for a basis to making decisions. The XHB 8-week EMA is 22.49. A week from now it could be close to 22.75.

These are trading concepts that Geoff and I will be discussing at the upcoming Cara Community Toronto Conference September 27-29. Hope to see you there!

As for market prices this morning, there is a significant anomaly between the falling price of Precious Metals and the falling price of the US Dollar ($USD). As I see it, the interventionists are selling PMs in order to take the focus off the Dollar, but the Dollar is key (since the forex market is much larger than the precious metals markets), so I would use this opportunity to buy the dip in the PM prices.

The British, French and Italian banks are all higher this morning except for BNP Paribas.

Have a good day.


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,040.12 6:44AM EDT Down 6.27 (0.31%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,360.20 6:19AM EDT Down 9.00 (0.38%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,440.56 7:00AM EDT Down 22.27 (0.64%) Components, Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 7,016.31 6:45AM EDT Down 31.14 (0.44%) Components, Chart, More
AEX.AS AEX General 330.40 6:45AM EDT Down 1.95 (0.59%) Components, Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 485.90 6:44AM EDT Up 0.08 (0.02%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 323.13 6:44AM EDT Down 4.36 (1.33%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,444.58 6:44AM EDT Down 46.70 (0.72%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,775.60 6:45AM EDT Down 1.00 (0.02%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 949.80 6:59AM EDT Down 4.00 (0.42%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,453.91 6:45AM EDT Up 5.83 (0.40%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 637.12 6:44AM EDT Down 8.96 (1.39%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.

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  2. 2 in Accumulation Zone 1 in Distribution Zone 5 in Sell... [#112655]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 2 in Accumulation Zone
    • 1 in Distribution Zone
    • 5 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone (5%): Monthly 4, Weekly 2, Daily 11
    Distribution Zone (13%): Monthly 11, Weekly 20, Daily 10

  3. Good morning. 09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index 10:00... [#112658]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    Good morning.

    09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index
    10:00 Consumer Confidence

    ——

    BNS – Bank of Nova Scotia initiated with a Hold at Stifel Nicolaus

    GILD – PT Lifted from $65 to $68 @ Stifel Nicolaus. Buy

    GSK – GlaxoSmithKline downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.

    TD – TD Bank initiated with a Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

    ——

    “I believe that every human has a finite number of heartbeats. I don’t intend to waste any of mine running around doing exercises.” ~ Neil Armstrong

  4. ... [#112659]
    By: JimG (299 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Evans is so dovish, any dove will look like a bald eagle... [#112666]
      By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑

      Evans is so dovish, any dove will look like a bald eagle next to him. Maybe there is still an outside chance guys thinking like the one quoted below prevail:

      (US) Fed’s Fisher (hawk): Fed has not made any decision to launch additional easing, reiterates that markets are addicted to monetary stimulus – interview
      - The Fed does not precommit, nothing is predestined.
      - Easy monetary policy “lulls the government to sleep.”
      - Fiscal clarity is needed to increase employment.

  5. i really enjoy the 'report'. the analyses with examples is... [#112661]
    By: skyler (67 comments) Go to top ↑

    i really enjoy the ‘report’. the analyses with examples is a great way to see and learn. thanks bill and geoff for these daily posts.

  6. BNN's Marty Cej writes a daily blog. Today, among other... [#112662]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    BNN’s Marty Cej writes a daily blog. Today, among other things, he wrote about Canadian banks:

    Canadian investors have plenty to keep them busy this morning after two of Canada’s biggest banks raised their dividends. The Bank of Montreal (BMO) lifted its quarterly dividend to 72 cents a share from 70 cents, the first dividend increase in five years, as net profit rose 37 percent to $970 million. Stripping out one-time items and such, the Bank of Montreal earned $1.49 a share, topping the average estimate by 10 cents. Over the past 12 months, BMO shares are down 2.6 percent, the worst performance among the country’s six biggest banks… Scotiabank (BNS), meanwhile, raised its quarterly dividend 2 cents a share to 57 cents as net profit surged 57 percent to $2.05 billion, or $1.69 a share. Strip out the impact of the sale of Scotia Plaza in Toronto and other one-time items and profit came in at $1.22 a share, topping the $1.19 expectation. Scotiabank stock has climbed 3 percent over the past 12 months, making it the second-worst performing big bank stock. The S&P/TSX index of bank stocks climbed 6.2 percent in the same period.

  7. ... [#112660]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑
  8. GILD - estimates, target increased at Jefferies. GILD... [#112663]
    By: Bull Hunter (3552 comments) Go to top ↑

    GILD – estimates, target increased at Jefferies. GILD estimates were raised through 2013. Stribild quad pill was approved with the FDA and the company announced higher pricing. Hold rating and new $55 price target.

  9. Bold Technical predication from Louise Yamada, I would like... [#112664]
    By: Jeff B (715 comments) Go to top ↑

    Bold Technical predication from Louise Yamada, I would like to see how accurate she has been since the start of this bull market, her name appears a few times a year to make these bold predictions, but they are far too long term to really evaluate until we pass the 2020 mark…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zY3h9QLeq5w&feature

    • ALOHA!! From the comment section on a Yahoo article ... I... [#112665]
      By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

      ALOHA!!

      From the comment section on a Yahoo article …

      I will bet anyone that the USA will return to some sort of gold standard before the US Debt is paid off!”

      • Somewhere in my travels around the internet during the last... [#112669]
        By: MoKat (531 comments) Go to top ↑

        Somewhere in my travels around the internet during the last week I came across this bit of information.

        The US government is supposed to own 261.5 million ounces of gold. When gold peaked at $850 per ounce in 1980, the market price of that gold was nearly equal to the national debt. Today gold would need to be priced at nearly $60,000 oz to equal the current national debt. $16T/ 261,500,000oz = $61,185

        So far have we fallen.

        One of these days the world is going to wake up and realize those FRN’s and dollar denominated bonds aren’t worth spit.

  10. ... [#112667]
    By: rgr (42 comments) Go to top ↑
  11. Thank you my friend; those calls I bought last Friday are... [#112668]
    By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

    Thank you my friend; those calls I bought last Friday are up 122% this am. I’m tied up this week but from the charts I checked last week it looked to be setting up for higher as I stated. Their October calls, so no reason for me to cut and run; will look at it closer when I get home;-)

    Take care
    Earl

  12. ... [#112670]
    By: CaptK (71 comments) Go to top ↑
    • I agree largely with Armstrong, except for his Reagan quote... [#112671]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      I agree largely with Armstrong, except for his Reagan quote which only describes half of our situation. Rephrased:

      “We have a 15 trillion dollar debt because we wanted stuff, but weren’t willing to pay for it.”

      So the adult choice is clear, just as it is in every debt-free household: either increase income, reduce spending, or engage in some combination of both.

      There is an upper limit to taxation, but based on historical taxation rates here in the US, we aren’t anywhere close. I’m NOT saying increasing taxes will fix things, just that a reasonable person might conclude that more taxes along with less spending could get us to a workable solution more rapidly than simply one or the other.

      Wait, isn’t that what they call compromise? Isn’t it linked closely with “governance”?

      • My son believes that ultimately his generation, "The... [#112674]
        By: Ron Sen (975 comments) Go to top ↑

        My son believes that ultimately his generation, “The Millenials” will have the wisdom and foresight to fix the current problem. He also believes that Bernanke has been the answer (I guess striking out the side in the eighth atones for allowing 12 runs in the seventh).

        I’m more inclined to believe that the ‘natural’ and ‘human’ naked power grab of parasitic politicians who care only about themselves, their immediate beneficiaries, and families are more likely to triumph in the interim.

        If the ‘sell ‘em the social platform, flag-waving, gun-toting, Motherhood and apple pie, cut taxes for the wealthy, deregulate approach works, shouldn’t it HAVE WORKED? It doesn’t work because the combination of avarice, lawlessness, and politics (nobody is guilty for stealing from We the People) produces fallen empires. When you sell your soul to the devil (the prime directive of politics), shouldn’t somebody call you on it? That matters whether you sell your soul to corporate elite or unions, right?

        Globalization hurts. When we can’t make widgets as cheaply as the next country, and outsource jobs to try to compete, our standard of living falls, and that in Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico, Turkey, Malaysia, and elsewhere rises. But progress for them means unemployment for your neighbor…or us.

        Oligarchy produces political instability, polarization, and declining standards of living for the masses, in ancient Rome and Egypt, prior to the French Revolution, and in Arab spring. If food costs for the average American were at the same (50% of income) level, it could happen here, too.

        But at the end of the day, we need solutions, not restatement of problems. Higher marginal tax rates, a focus on infrastructure, means testing for Social Security, alternative energy policy that recognizes the energy monopoly, and something approaching “liberty and justice for all” would be a start.

        Now, if somebody in India could get Comcast to fix my Internet connection…I think upstream power surges keep shutting me down.

  13. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tmGdQDS7HE... that window... [#112672]
    By: baz22 (2875 comments) Go to top ↑

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tmGdQDS7HE… that window has closed at gnom.

  14. ALOHA!! If higher tax rates mattered why the debt? Reagan... [#112679]
    By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

    ALOHA!!

    If higher tax rates mattered why the debt? Reagan also said that “Government will always find a need for whatever money it gets.” We have a government of BLANK CHECKS!

    Here are historical tax rates for US Income Tax:
    1970s 14-70%
    1960s 16-77%
    1963 20-91%
    1953 22.2-92%

    Now the marginal rates are 10-35%.

    All those high rates even as high as 92% and yet we still had Congress spending full blast on the same old sacred cow sectors like Social Security, Medicare and Military. Even at 92% none of the debt from WW2 or Korea was paid off. Even at 70% and 77% none of the debt from Vietnam was paid off. Now here we are in the Middle East with military bases worldwide with a net annual outlay of $4TRIL on the same government programs of the past. I keep outlining the four top line items on the US Treasury that are already more than total annual net $1.6TRIL tax revenues.

    I cannot believe there are any Americans left who actually believe that higher taxes will solve anything. Please elaborate here and now as to how Congress, the US FED and all the line items on the US Treasury Statements will be effected by more tax revenues. Will spending go down? Will the debt get paid off? Will bankers be more honest? Will Generals want less war? Will Big Pharma do less lobbying?

    Since I first started work more and more tax deductions have been either limited or closed. It used to be you could write off credit card interest. There was never an AGI cap on medical costs etc. etc …

    How is it the economy will improve when the most productive and employable have to pay more taxes. How can you spend more and pay more taxes at the same time. How can business employ more and pay more taxes at the same time?

    What guarantees do we have from Congress that our increased tax rates will go directly to paying down the principle on the US Debt? All Treasury ever pays is the minimum due then Congress blows the rest plus the debt issuances on pork and unions and war! The multi-decade track record should be crystal clear to all by now! Or are we in DEBT STOCKHOLM SYNDROME?

    Why would anyone trust the BLACK HOLE MONEY PIT that is Washington DC? We haven’t seen any true hard nosed anti-central bank leadership there since Andrew Jackson(1837).

    • Kaimu, please just read what I suggested. Raising taxes and... [#112680]
      By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

      Kaimu, please just read what I suggested. Raising taxes and cutting spending at the same time will bring the budget into balance faster than just cutting spending on its own.

      Surely you can’t dispute that?

      • ... [#112681]
        By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
      • ALOHA!! Raising taxes and cutting spending at the same... [#112682]
        By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

        ALOHA!!

        Raising taxes and cutting spending at the same time will bring the budget into balance faster than just cutting spending on its own.

        Dave- Really? Its the budget is it? Even Clinton with surpluses still increased the debt on his watch. During his reign the US Debt increased 35.6%. On top of that he had the massive tax revenue from the stock market bubble behind him. After the NASDAQ crashed government spending did not decrease and neither did the debt. The Bush 2 reign(8 years) jacked up the debt by 89% averaging an annual increase of 8.3%. Just the four years of Obama the debt is increasing at an annual rate of 12.2%.

        Really? You are going to sucker for yet another promise to cut spending? We just had that promise with the Budget Control Act of 2011 and how has that worked for you? There essentially is no budget?

        Seriously the entire system has to to collapse before we can get rid of the dual monopoly that owns us, both politically and monetarily. I have no faith in the US Public and their voting abilities much less their cherished mentality of the “lesser evil”!

        I know people on EBT with 48″ flat screens and big 4WD trucks! America has some of the richest poor people in the World. No wonder foreigners want in! Where is the mentality for balance anything?

        • Re: A US Fed gov't "cutting spending!" Has it ever... [#112684]
          By: dberryclan (687 comments) Go to top ↑

          Re: A US Fed gov’t “cutting spending!”

          Has it ever happened? Our society, in which the US Fed Gubermint is the prime example, is addicted to spending. It’s been the ultimate “comfort food” of the consumer generations…. besides, how could the policy makers cut spending and “reflate an economy that flirts with eflation….

          “faggitaboutit!”

        • Kaimu - Sometimes discussions with you seem to be more... [#112689]
          By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

          Kaimu -

          Sometimes discussions with you seem to be more difficult than they need to be. But ok…I’ll play along if that’s what you want.

          First, let me state herein for this discussion, I’m pretending that I am in effective charge of the budget and its execution, and this is what I will do. And by “do”, I mean REALLY DO, not just pretend to do, or do first one thing, and not do the other. I’m not lying. This is what I will do. And by do, I mean REALLY DO. Are we clear? I’m going to DO IT ALL. And when I say ALL, I mean do EVERY PART. Not just ONE PART, but ALL PARTS.

          So with that understood, I hereby propose (and when I use the word “I” I am asserting that I am neither Clinton, Bush, nor Obama, nor in fact any other person living or dead other than myself) that if we raise taxes (and by we, I mean the US Government) and cut spending AT THE SAME TIME, the deficit gets closed faster than if we just cut spending. Or just raise taxes. And by deficit I mean the amount of new debt issued by the US Government to cover the difference between taxes and spending.

          Just to be clear, that proposal was MY PROPOSAL, and that I’m not some current or historical politician, and that my assumption is, we REALLY DO CUT SPENDING at the same time we REALLY DO RAISE TAXES.

          • Kaimu & Dave - brilliant the both of you. Thanks for... [#112701]
            By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

            Kaimu & Dave – brilliant the both of you. Thanks for all you add to this board. And Dave – (and this is what I will do. And by “do”, I mean REALLY DO, not just pretend to do, or do first one thing, and not do the other. I’m not lying. This is what I will do. And by do, I mean REALLY DO. Are we clear? I’m going to DO IT ALL. And when I say ALL, I mean do EVERY PART. Not just ONE PART, but ALL PARTS.) I believe you will do what you say;-) LOL.

          • ... [#112712]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
    • "ALOHA!! If higher tax rates mattered why the debt? Reagan... [#112686]
      By: indyrjc (56 comments) Go to top ↑

      “ALOHA!!

      If higher tax rates mattered why the debt? Reagan also said that “Government will always find a need for whatever money it gets.” We have a government of BLANK CHECKS!

      Here are historical tax rates for US Income Tax:
      1970s 14-70%
      1960s 16-77%
      1963 20-91%
      1953 22.2-92%

      Now the marginal rates are 10-35%.”

      Actually those rates don’t begin to tell the whole story since they don’t reflect what the average tax rates really were when all of the tax “loopholes” and legal dodges are taken into consideration. Progressive types love to quote these same rates as evidence that during the prosperous 1950s and 1960s there was a 92% top tax rate. But the reality is that almost no one actually paid those rates. There was one year in the 50s when only one person in the United States actually paid the top income tax rate. Most other high earners paid much less than than the historical rates would indicate at first glance. By the time all of the legal tax shelters (which was a gigantic industry for decades) and accounting methods are allowed for the actual tax rates paid weren’t too much different than those of today for most people. And those past federal rates were also in place during a period where state and local taxes were much lower than today; in many states there basically were no state taxes during that period and almost no sales taxes either. The truth is that the American economy really can’t stand much more in the way of federal tax increases without completely destroying ambition and future innovation; if it hasn’t done so already with ever increasing regulations and red tape roadblocks. Additional taxation isn’t the solution and never will be. The problem is the constant spending of “money” (in quotes because I’ve been reading Kaimu for several years now) that we don’t really have.

      • indyrjc - Check me on this graph; I might have made a... [#112693]
        By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑

        indyrjc -

        Check me on this graph; I might have made a mistake somewhere, but this one seems to show the current effective tax burden (as a % of GDP) to be the lowest in quite some time. Right now, its at 15% of GDP.

        My calculation is a bit convoluted, since there is no “total taxes collected” in FRED, so look how I did it and see if I might have made an error.

        a: GDP (nominal)
        b: AFEXPND (annual federal government expenditures, B$)
        c: FYGFD (total federal debt, change from year ago, B$)
        Equation: (b – c) / a

        http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=9Tj

        As a way to check my work, I also charted federal spending vs GDP. Its currently at about 25% of GDP. This checks, because we have a deficit of about 10% of GDP.

        a: GDP
        b: AFEXPND
        Equation: b/a

        http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=9Tn

        If these charts are true, your claim that we have a high current effective tax rate (its about 15%) would seem to be incorrect. Also, the claim that this is all about spending is also incorrect. Spending seems to have jumped about 5% of GDP, while taxes appear to have dropped about 5%.

        If you find I’m wrong somewhere, please show me.

        • ALOHA!! "since there is no "total taxes collected" in... [#112716]
          By: kaimu (3289 comments) Go to top ↑

          ALOHA!!

          “since there is no “total taxes collected” in FRED”

          The US Treasury Statement has that historical data point and others. Why do you need to FRED chart it to arrive at a %GDP in your equations?

          What are the datapoints FRED AFXPND and FYGFD based on?

          The US government OMB/CBO uses both on-budget and off-budget receipts and outlay accounting. There are also mandatory, discretionary and supplemental receipts and outlays. How do you account for those on FRED?

          Effective tax rate is total tax/taxable income. Why do you need FYGFD “change from year ago”? Also how do you account for the many variances in tax laws since the 1950s? I know that in the 1970s I could deduct credit card interest and I did not have to have AGI caps. In effect would those variables not be considered when determining effective “real” tax burden?

          Also how do you account for the fact that my tax and debt dollars in 2012 buy a lot less infrastructure and services than my tax and debt dollars did in 1972? How is that part of a “real” GDP% effective tax rate data?

  15. ... [#112683]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑
    • Bill is it your intention to dovetail the cara conference... [#112688]
      By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

      Bill is it your intention to dovetail the cara conference with some of the Cambridge House Resource Conference participants. I didn’t see too many names I recognize….which isn’t saying much

      • westcoaster, Some of the mining companies that I am... [#112695]
        By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

        westcoaster,

        Some of the mining companies that I am interested in, say for conversation and cocktails at our conference, are not exhibiting at Cambridge. But I like the job Joe Martin does with his Cambridge shows and I have set it up that our people might get over there for a couple hours — it’s right across the street — and maybe enjoy a bit of their hospitality on the Thursday evening as well.

        We’ll be very busy though, so a couple hours out of two and a half days is not much. I just wanted possible attendees who wanted to come to Toronto to meet some of the Cambridge show exhibitors to have that opportunity while in Toronto. Some others who are coming are invested in companies like Argex (among several others) that I am trying to set up meetings with.

        This conference will have more emphasis on meetings and networking than any of the ones before it. For the first one I did, i thought people wanted to party, and they did, but they really wanted to learn and to network more. So every year I have been pushing in that direction a bit more. Also, I realized that people wanted me to be “on stage” more, and while anybody who has been to one of these conferences would agree I like doing that, I’m also fairly shy.

        Yes, it’s true. I’m really not an actor. I’m too honest and up-front for that. So, this year, I plan to be more personally involved than before because that’s what people want. When it’s over, I’ll already be planning the one for 2013! Maybe even in combination with PDAC in Toronto, in March!

  16. Truth is stranger than fiction. Hat tip to Jesse's... [#112685]
    By: Dr. Strangelove (2004 comments) Go to top ↑

    Truth is stranger than fiction. Hat tip to Jesse’s Cafe.

    http://www.tmz.com/2012/08/27/brian-mulligan-lapd-

    A case of misidentification? I think not.

  17. Commenting on the Feasibility Study results, PMI's Managing... [#112687]
    By: westcoaster (1130 comments) Go to top ↑

    Commenting on the Feasibility Study results, PMI’s Managing Director and CEO, Collin Ellison, said:

    “We are very pleased with the results of the Obotan Feasibility Study, which clearly demonstrates the potential to develop a robust, long-term mining operation capable of delivering strong investment returns that will form the cornerstone of our emerging gold business in West Africa.
    This is good news. Check their website for full story.

    “We are currently continuing detailed design and engineering work, as well as assessing options to optimize capital and operating costs while we continue discussions with potential project financiers. This puts us firmly on track to make a development decision during the fourth Quarter of 2012, paving the way for us to secure project finance and commence development early next year.”

    “A select group of leading international banks have provided detailed indicative offers to deliver debt financing facilities and we are currently assessing these offers in conjunction with our advisors, Optimum Capital Pty Ltd, in order to determine the best combination of debt and equity funding to underpin project development. The Company has also made excellent progress with the statutory approvals process and is well placed to finalize its environmental approvals and secure the grant of a Mining Lease during the fourth Quarter of 2012.

    • Highlights: Independent NI 43-101 compliant Feasibility... [#112694]
      By: lowpickr (153 comments) Go to top ↑

      Highlights:

      Independent NI 43-101 compliant Feasibility Study confirms a financially and technically robust mining operation at Obotan, with key outcomes including:
      Pre-Tax NPV of US$614M and Post-tax NPV of US$387M, assuming a US$1,300/oz gold price, 5% discount rate and contract mining scenario (consistent with January 2012 Pre-feasibility Study)
      Pre-tax IRR of 35% and post-tax IRR of 28%
      Capital payback period of 2.9 years
      At current prices of $1600/ounce,
      Pre-tax NPV rises to US$1.07B and post-tax NPV to US$686M
      Pre-tax IRR of 54% and post-tax IRR of 43%
      Capital payback period of 2.0 years
      Average production of 221,500 oz Au pa over the first five years
      Total production of 2.26 million recovered oz Au over the 11.5 year mine life
      Life-of-mine Project Revenue of US$2.9 billion
      Estimated average life-of-mine cash operating costs of US$626/oz
      Increased Proven and Probable Ore Reserves of 34.2Mt at 2.21g/t for 2.43Moz of gold across four deposits. This is a rise of 170,000 oz from the January 2012 Pre-feasibility Study.
      Capital cost estimate of US$296.6M including a pre-strip mining cost of US$82.2M

      • Clearly good news, as surrounded by a wall of red numbers... [#112707]
        By: Ventilation Blues (164 comments) Go to top ↑

        Clearly good news, as surrounded by a wall of red numbers last night for PM’s , PMI jumped up almost 10% last night …. sweeet!
        Speaking of PMI, ex Doug MacQuarrie bought a stack of Assante last month. Assante ASE now at low low prices @0.26 … is this worth a chihuahua position on possibly?

  18. It just boggles the mind at the lack of... [#112692]
    By: tbar (303 comments) Go to top ↑

    It just boggles the mind at the lack of it.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedd

  19. Appears they are determined to drive oil down, afterall... [#112696]
    By: lowpickr (153 comments) Go to top ↑

    Appears they are determined to drive oil down, afterall there is an election to be won.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/

    • Hi Lowpickr; I'm not seeing the issue yet - I don't know... [#112700]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi Lowpickr;
      I’m not seeing the issue yet – I don’t know who it will benefit during the election if G7 does release some oil from reserves – it takes very little relative to the total daily consumption to move the market one way or the other but the charts sure don’t appear to need help – not saying that I would not see the price come down for gasoline which is not always connected at the hip with the price of oil. Lately there have been two refinery’s that have had major issues, one in South Texas and the other in Las Angeles. This has caused a disruption of supply and futures.

      A couple charts to support my thought there is no need for any release.

      regards,
      Earl

  20. One cancels the other order. ZSL 7 day RSI currently... [#112702]
    By: bsi87 (1171 comments) Go to top ↑

    One cancels the other order.

    ZSL 7 day RSI currently 10.50, approaching 10 and capitulation. Buy limit order @ 51.50 which is about half the dragonfly reversal on 8/27.

    The other trade is BIG. Coming off the RSI 7 day low of 10 couple days ago. Buy stop limit order 32.47/32.50 which is just above the high of 8/23 which earning came out and the stock crashed. Any kind of pop would squeeze the late entry bears and excite the bulls into chasing.

    Running a BIG:ZSL charts shows RSI of 45 so roughly flat. See what happens next.

    FWIW. Long some BIG already, no ZSL position. Do your own homework.

  21. One cancels the other order. ZSL 7 day RSI currently... [#112703]
    By: bsi87 (1171 comments) Go to top ↑

    One cancels the other order.

    ZSL 7 day RSI currently 10.50, approaching 10 and capitulation. Buy limit order @ 51.50 which is about half the dragonfly reversal on 8/27.

    The other trade is BIG. Coming off the RSI 7 day low of 10 couple days ago. Buy stop limit order 32.47/32.50 which is just above the high of 8/23 which earning came out and the stock crashed. Any kind of pop would squeeze the late entry bears and excite the bulls into chasing.

    Running a BIG:ZSL charts shows RSI of 45 so roughly flat. See what happens next.

    FWIW. Long some BIG already, no ZSL position. Do your own homework.

  22. ... [#112706]
    By: davefairtex (5215 comments) Go to top ↑