Bill Cara’s Blog for Aug 21, 2012
CTA Trading Desk Morning Report
[7:00am ET] Good morning.
The US Dollar is weak this morning and equities, precious metals and commodities are strong.
China’s central bank has implemented a program of QE.
London’s Banks and Miners & Oilers are well up on the day.
Have a good day.
Good morning, Geoff here.
The Euro is up this morning and gold is following suit.
As you know, we are long-term gold bulls and have been bullish in the short term for weeks.
Here are a few ratio charts that show “risk-on” for gold and the miners. These charts show you when to push on the gas and when to slow down. They have been accelerating.
Weeks ago, we were talking about how severely depressed sentiment was on the precious metal stocks and how that was the time to get in, not get out of them. We showed you the following chart as a reason to buy the miners.
It is a few weeks later and so far, so good:
However, for more participants to enter the space, we would like to see the following charts improve as noted:
For gold to get the big “green light” it has to move over $1652. The first step to a big upside move for gold is shown in the following chart as a break above downtrend line “A”. Then, it needs to move above resistance “B”. If those two things happen, we will be really close, if not at, the time the 200 DMA and ADX both turn higher which is anther bullish sign. At that time, it will be lift-off for gold:
So, the Euro is in rally mode this morning and if that can continue for a few more days, we may see many more traders jump on the precious metals bandwagon creating “lift off”.
(FD: we are long gold and gold related securities)
Have a great trading day!
Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.
|Symbol||Name||Last Trade||Change||Related Info|
||0.08 (0.00%)||Components, Chart, More|
||4.50 (0.19%)||Components, Chart, More|
||22.49 (0.65%)||Components, Chart, More|
||28.69 (0.41%)||Components, Chart, More|
||1.69 (0.51%)||Components, Chart, More|
|^OSEAX||OSE All Share||491.78
||4.78 (0.98%)||Components, Chart, More|
||0.23 (0.07%)||Components, Chart, More|
||6.26 (0.10%)||Components, Chart, More|
||19.00 (0.33%)||Components, Chart, More|
||9.70 (1.03%)||Chart, More|
||21.64 (1.51%)||Chart, More|
|GD.AT||Athex Composite Share Price Index||633.29
||7.07 (1.13%)||Chart, More|
The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.
Enjoy your day.