Bill Cara’s Blog for Apr 6, 2012

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[8:45am ET] Good morning, Geoff here.

Employment data was disappointing this morning as 120,000 jobs were added for the month of March. That is the lowest in 5 months and missed the expectations of 205,000.

This will probably bring talk of a new QE program on the heels of the Fed suggesting that one is not needed.

Immediately, S&P futures were hit, dropping over 1% in 15 minues. Bonds and gold rallied.

Like I said yesterday, releasing this number on a holiday was the wrong thing to do. Event risk was the reason why risk mitigation was necessary and why we took that route this week.

Hope you are not sitting super long this weekend with no access to the markets.

Have a great holiday weekend!


Here are the 7:00am ET snapshots of the latest equity market trading results for Europe, and futures prices plus 5-minute charts of the futures for S&P 500, 30-year US Treasury Bond, US Dollar index, Gold and Crude Oil.

Symbol Name Last Trade Change Related Info
^ATX ATX 2,028.00 Apr 5 Down 19.00 (0.93%) Components, Chart, More
^BFX BEL-20 2,247.00 Apr 5 Down 19.00 (0.84%) Components, Chart, More
^FCHI CAC 40 3,319.81 Apr 5 Up 6.34 (0.19%) Chart, More
^GDAXI DAX 6,775.26 Apr 5 Down 8.80 (0.13%) Components, Chart, More
^AEX AEX General 312.25 Apr 5 Down 1.62 (0.52%) Chart, More
^OSEAX OSE All Share 476.62 Apr 4 Down 5.16 (1.07%) Components, Chart, More
^OMXSPI Stockholm General 328.19 Apr 5 Down 1.55 (0.47%) Components, Chart, More
^SSMI Swiss Market 6,163.49 Apr 5 Down 3.30 (0.05%) Components, Chart, More
^FTSE FTSE 100 5,723.67 Apr 5 Up 19.90 (0.35%) Components, Chart, More
FPXAA.PR PX Index 940.40 6:51AM EDT Up 5.30 (0.57%) Chart, More
MICEXINDEXCF.ME MICEX Index 1,526.22 6:51AM EDT Up 1.28 (0.08%) Chart, More
GD.AT Athex Composite Share Price Index 707.60 Apr 5 Up 3.66 (0.52%) Chart, More

http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ES

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=ZB

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=DX

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=GC

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=SI

http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?p=m5&t=CL

The team will check in during the day, reporting in the Discourse when there is a new entry.

Enjoy your day.


Cara on Trends & Cycles


Vad’s Catch of the Day


Kaimu’s Sound Money


CTA Trading Desk Mid-Day Report


CTA Trading Desk Post-Close Report


  1. [No set time] Monster Employment Index 8:30 AM ET... [#107229]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
  2. 2 in Accumulation Zone 4 in Distribution Zone 9 in Sell... [#107230]
    By: davefairtex (5216 comments) Go to top ↑
    • 2 in Accumulation Zone
    • 4 in Distribution Zone
    • 9 in Sell alert

    Accumulation Zone: Monthly 4, Weekly 5, Daily 18
    Distribution Zone: Monthly 18, Weekly 15, Daily 5

  3. Here was yesterday's Smith and Wesson's clue on new pistol... [#107232]
    By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

    Here was yesterday’s Smith and Wesson’s clue on new pistol releasing/shipping April 12 at NRA conference. they will show pieces of the puzzle each day til 4/12 via facebook and twitter. So far it looks like single stack with aggressive rear serrations and external safety.

    Product is already in production and will be shipping the week of the reveal.

    http://bit.ly/HlnnxP

    • Hi NYUGrad - I have not invested in the gun stocks... [#107233]
      By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

      Hi NYUGrad – I have not invested in the gun stocks (diversity) but like the real thing, and it’s hard to figure out where the next hot thing will actually be but here is a possibility, for cqc <100yrds (close quarter combat) and $ these are very hard to beat, 100% American Made but starting to get hard to find. Promag has the 15 round clips and you can carry lots of 9. http://www.hi-pointfirearms.com/carbines/carbines_

      There is something very strange going on since I talk to a few dealers from time to time – sales are actually down in Houston they claim due to the employment numbers is their best guess. They point out the evidence is on auction sites, few bidders so that’s a twist to this whole thing.

      regards,
      Earl

      • Here are today's Smith and Wesson's clue photo and... [#107234]
        By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

        Here are today’s Smith and Wesson’s clue photo and yesterday’s stitched together.

        http://bit.ly/HsPwQO

        Earl,

        I do have a carry license that is valid in 31 states. But I do not own a firearm. I live in NJ/NYC which has very strict laws and social pressures vs civilians owning guns. Second only to California and DC. In fact here, if someone trespasses into your home, your 1st option by law should be to flee.

        I do get my share of range practice in all calibers at the range by renting. And if the dung hits the fan, i do have a small stash of ammo that i can possibly barter with for a fire arm. I figure in a environment of chaos, finding, stealing or trading for a fire arm will be easier than buying one now.

        From my findings, pistol/rifle/ and carbine sales are through the roof! It seems gun and knife enthusiasts are willing to own multiples. if you look at some high end folding knives, they can cost $300+ for a knife! so $500 for a trusty firearm is a great investment. Especially since you know you can resell it even used, for about the same price as you paid new. Some even go up in value fairly quickly.

        I know the real employment picture is not improving no matter what the govt is reporting. but i shall take what profits the markets give me now. but i am also preparing for a time where society without rule of law may show up in America. social crashes throughout history shows it takes time. more time for us to prepare just in case.

        However i hope i live a healthy long life and already resting in peace, before America ever sees this type of strife.

        CORRECTION: I said yest the only competition for single stack polymer 45 was Springfield XDs. the Glock 36 also is in this category. but the SWHC is the only one made in USA.

        • ... [#107235]
          By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
          • it is impossible to get any type of carry license in NJ/NYC... [#107236]
            By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

            it is impossible to get any type of carry license in NJ/NYC as well. They allow you to apply but its nearly impossible to get one unless you are currently an on duty officer or agent.

            Applying probably just brings unwanted attention to yourself.

            You have to wonder, if more responsible citizens had ability to conceal carry, how many lives could have been saved in tragic random shootings like the one two weeks ago in and Oakland college? 7 People murdered by a lunatic. I know if i were in that school and was able to carry, i would have tried to stop him. http://bit.ly/HsLA33

            I hope i never ever have to use a fire arm outside of a practice range. But if the time ever comes, hoping my training comes through.

          • ... [#107240]
            By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑
          • Hey Earl, That's one cute Hi-Point plinker. They do make... [#107241]
            By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

            Hey Earl,
            That’s one cute Hi-Point plinker. They do make reliable firearms.

            If one really wants a trench broom, a Thompson 45 with a drum mag is ideal. You can even get one fully automatic in Texas if it is registered. It was Audie Murphy’s teddy bear…

            Guns are like toothpaste or cereal brands. There is one manufactured for every taste but bascially they all chunk out a piece of lead of various weights and at various speeds, configured with various tips to do various things. They are indeed multi-various. There is no perfect firearm in the toy box…

            My choices for;
            Home defence: An auto loading 12 gauge 00-buck with a 26″ skeet barrel.
            Home on the range: A lever action Marlin guide gun in 45-70 government.
            Home away from home: A Glock 29.
            There is a lot of cheap schlock ammo on the market today. It is amazing but with the correct ammo, albeit expensive, you can turn even a .380 butt stinger into the equivelent of a regular 9mm. Buffolo Bore ammo has the best loads available anywhere. Click through their ballistics to find what you need for most calibers.

            Moral: Always go Heavy but with the correct ammo!

            Slow day on the investment front??, just sizing up the tepid comments section. I was going to comment about my attack minipoodle, Anichka but guns are more funner. If gold disappoints ya, think about a Golden Retreiver. Unlike banksters, televangilists, stock jobbers, insurance salesmen, mortgage arrangers, snake-oil hucksters and politicians wearing either red or blue stripes, a dog holds no malice nor is there a deceitful bone in its body.

          • Hi Ilya - attack minipoodle? LOL, What happened to the... [#107242]
            By: ea32da32 (2362 comments) Go to top ↑

            Hi Ilya – attack minipoodle? LOL, What happened to the attack chiwowwow’s;-) My wife decided on the shar pei, not to big, not to small, huge bark and full of love. The Chinese did a great job on this guard dog and hopefully the only deterrent we’ll ever need.
            take care,
            Earl

          • ... [#107244]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
          • NYUG, "I know if i were in that school and was able to... [#107243]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑

            NYUG,

            “I know if i were in that school and was able to carry, I would have tried to stop him.”

            I believe there are many crimes halted due to the prospect of an armed and responsible citizen. I have no wish to carry personally. I would need to be aware of it at all times, but I would like any one with plans to rob or or worse to think I may be.

            We had a holdup attempt stopped here last year. Three guys (one with a hand gun) went into a pizza delivery shop. An off-duty cop who was visiting his friend behind the counter, grabbed a pistol which the pizza man had in his belt and killed one, arrested the others.

            Grym

          • "You have to wonder, if more responsible citizens had... [#107250]
            By: Corner Stone (369 comments) Go to top ↑

            “You have to wonder, if more responsible citizens had ability to conceal carry, how many lives could have been saved in tragic random shootings like the one two weeks ago in and Oakland college? 7 People murdered by a lunatic. I know if i were in that school and was able to carry, i would have tried to stop him.”

            I have a CHL and outside training numbering quite a few hours. I’m also a 2nd Amendment booster, overall.
            The imagination it takes to conceive of a random citizen making split second life and death decisions in a crowd/clouded haze should be stamped out. Hard.

          • "The imagination it takes to conceive of a random citizen... [#107252]
            By: Illini (672 comments) Go to top ↑

            “The imagination it takes to conceive of a random citizen making split second life and death decisions in a crowd/clouded haze should be stamped out. Hard.”

            I agree. The thought of bullets being fired in a public space by a vigilante is scary. Ricochet not to mention outright misses.

        • "In fact here, if someone trespasses into your home, your... [#107245]
          By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

          “In fact here, if someone trespasses into your home, your 1st option by law should be to flee.”

          NYUGrad,

          In years past my husband and I took several classes for CC; my comment following the first one was “everyone should take this class even if they don’t plan to carry”. Excellent school here on the left coast_ owned by a former sheriff who trains police; one of the instructors is a criminal attorney, another former Marine Corp Capt…)

          Personal safety (keeping myself and family out of harms way) stands at the fore, and one alternative to deadly force is avoidance. The insight, understanding consequences… and especially, situational awareness, is key.

          • ... [#107248]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
          • I guess we are well off topic but, for what it's worth on a... [#107249]
            By: frankoo (7 comments) Go to top ↑

            I guess we are well off topic but, for what it’s worth on a Saturday If you have been chosen to be mugged, car jacked, home invaded, most of the time you only have a few seconds to make a decision on what to do. My first inclination is self preservation for my family and then me. NYPD evaluated over 4,000 shootings and they came up with 10-11 feet is the average distance of a shooting. Regardless, it is almost an arms length affair. I live in South Texas, have a concealed handgun permit, keep a loaded pistol by my arm chair, one in the kitchen, one in my bed, shot gun by the front and back door and one in my pocket at all times. Walmart parking lots put me in first mode alert. My father in law is a retired FBI agent, a brother in law sheriff. I will not be shot or stabbed in the back, using the “alternative to deadly force avoidance method”. I sleep well, sing when I cook, answer the door with a smile and whistle, walking in and out of Walmart, although on alert. When Grandchildren and their friends visit, all guns go to the safe. Safety with children over being surprised by the bad guy. I share this information to let people know, bad guys can sometime pick the wrong guy. I pray I never have to shoot a human, because the experience after the shooting is the worst part. Frankoo

          • "I am not a good runner." I love it! Cops i know say they... [#107251]
            By: NYUGrad (4750 comments) Go to top ↑

            “I am not a good runner.” I love it!

            Cops i know say they always arrest the same thugs for burglary and robbery, as they see prison as a vacation. if they want free dental work or medical attention or network, they commit crimes to go back in.

            they try to rob a store or a home without a gun, so they get a lessor sentence and go back into jail. its no big thing for these repeat offenders.

          • ... [#107253]
            By: Grym (5469 comments) Go to top ↑
  4. Wondering if there was any reaction to the employment... [#107237]
    By: stu1x2 (27 comments) Go to top ↑

    Wondering if there was any reaction to the employment numbers.

  5. for SPY, IWM and... [#107246]
    By: Vadym Graifer (4341 comments) Go to top ↑
  6. Rating firm Egan-Jones cuts its credit rating on the U.S... [#107247]
    By: johnuk (866 comments) Go to top ↑

    Rating firm Egan-Jones cuts its credit rating on the U.S. government to “AA” from “AA+” with a negative watch, citing a lack of progress in cutting the mounting federal debt.
    “When debt-to-GDP exceeds 100 percent, a country’s financial flexibility becomes increasingly strained,” Managing Director Sean Egan wrote in his report on the downgrade. “For the first time since World War II, U.S. debt exceeds 100 percent.”

    http://tinyurl.com/c6z9c5s

  7. ... is up. Hopefully we can revert to discussing markets... [#107254]
    By: Bill Cara (4105 comments) Go to top ↑

    … is up. Hopefully we can revert to discussing markets, which is the reason I publish this report. Thanks and have a Happy Easter!

    • Happy Easter Everyone. Another excellent WIR. The hit on... [#107255]
      By: 4ever (612 comments) Go to top ↑

      Happy Easter Everyone.

      Another excellent WIR. The hit on PM equities over the last several trading sessions has been savage.

      I think never-ending QE is a reality for the world. At least the US & Euro lands. Maybe the dual mandate for the FED isn’t such a good thing afterall.

      Meanwhile, inflation is becoming brutal. The local dollar stores have now security tagged laundry detergent. I can see why – small plastic containers go for $10. Grocery stores may be next. Our last trip to pick up a bag of sugar was interesting. My wife thought the bag looked different, and it was. Smaller, down to 4lbs from 5lbs.

      As world dollars are diluted, there’s only one direction for gold and silver(and equities in general) that I see. Up, up & away. Continuing to hold solid, large caps serving world markets, CEF for gold/silver, and PM equities. That’s my strategy & I’m sticking to it. :)

      • "Our last trip to pick up a bag of sugar was interesting... [#107264]
        By: tradylady (205 comments) Go to top ↑

        “Our last trip to pick up a bag of sugar was interesting. My wife thought the bag looked different, and it was. Smaller, down to 4lbs from 5lbs.”

        4ever,

        That has been a practice now for several years_ downsizing the package and contents and keeping the price the same, i.e. cereal. I recall General Mills CEO stating that ‘that was what the consumer wanted’. (Any lie will do.)

        Just went to buy more canning jars (pint and a half are hard to find_the height is perfect for pickled asparagus); the price was a dollar less than normal… LOL… they reduced the number of jars from 12 to 9.

        • tradylady, Try aier.org for their 'everyday price... [#107286]
          By: Ilya (572 comments) Go to top ↑

          tradylady,
          Try aier.org for their ‘everyday price index.’

          Aside from hedonic adjustments with which they side with the Fed’s lackeys, (after all they are pointy headed professorial types) they totally overlook taxes. Question. Are higher tax rates a component in our inflation calculations? If not why not. Anyone looked at the tax percentage of their phone/telecommunications bill lately? My guess is that it is close to 16%. When was the last time a state or municipality REDUCED sales taxes?

          In 1974, I built a 3100 sq ft single story brick home for $65,000 lot included. My property taxes then were 1.45%, a whopping $80 a month. That same house is on the tax rolls today at $362,000 with a tax rate of 2.205% which results in monthly gig of $665/mo which is now 50% higher than the original mortgage payment in 1974…

          OK, prices for goods and services are in the end only manifestations of the debased value of your money but subtle tax increases are forever and….never decline.

          Pity the poor working class stiffs that cannot afford the new cars and electronics such that they cannot take advantage of this wonderous hedonic deflation at ever higher and higher prices.

          The middleclass is like the smiling ‘Cheshire Cat’ while the lower classes are funded for medical, food and fuel by promissary notes that can never be repaid. Ah, lest we forget the saver class, us chumps who took to heart their grandparents advice of putting away 10% for a rainy day and are now the brunt of bankster’s jokes. “Give back our toasters and we will warehouse your savings for free less our monthly fees.”

    • I appreciate the clearheaded commentary, particularly on... [#107257]
      By: stu1x2 (27 comments) Go to top ↑

      I appreciate the clearheaded commentary, particularly on the gold miners. With the miners I feel I’ve got an angel on each shoulder – one saying we are way oversold and should reverse soon. The other one is saying the that miners look to be on the precipice of a watershed fall as in ’08 as they break to new oversold conditions with forced selling . Trying to be prepared and open-minded about either situation as we are at extremes and anything can happen.